textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and breezy conditions are expected Friday. Afternoon humidity is forecast to drop between 20 to 30% combining with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. This may create elevated fire weather concerns.

UPDATE

Issued at 936 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Forecast is on track this morning, and no significant changes have been made. Slight warmup still expected today, creating dry conditions with light and variable winds through the rest of the morning. Latest CAM runs still show low, but non-zero chances for some light rain overnight. Sticking with the current PoP forecast still, as confidence is low in any accumulation with these possible showers.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The Northern Plains will continue in northwest flow within this messy split flow wavy +PNA pattern. The good news is that we will see a slight shift eastward with the entire pattern through early next week. The ongoing amplified ridge does flatten a bit Monday/Tuesday with a wave riding up and along it. Beyond this time Clusters do vary on exact placement and intensity of the synoptic features but hint at an overall +PNA pattern with more of a broad ridge over the western two thirds of the CONUS and broad trough to the east by the midweek. However, low confidence exists this far out.

Within this pattern, a weak wave and a broad area of low pressure will track southeastward out of western Canada and over the Northern Rockies by 12Z with the center of the low over eastern WY/SD/NE border by 18Z and continuing its southeastern track into the Central Plains this evening and tonight. East/northeast of this system high pressure will be over ~ND and shifting a bit eastward this evening. The majority of the CAMs continue to indicate the convective precip tracking northwest to southeast with this system will stay off to our west and southwest. NAMNest/FV3 are still showing the potential of some of this precip clipping Stanley/Jones/Lyman Counties towards the evening. HREF prob of precip>0.01" for these counties is 20% or less with NBM pops under 10%. So stuck with what the NBM has for now due to low confidence, but slight pops may need to be added in closer to time if needed. Otherwise minimal pop chances (15%) are possible over far northeastern SD/west central MN Friday evening/Saturday as another embedded wave/weak low out of Canada will track southeast and over ND/MN (and cold front) with the bulk of the precip staying farther northeast of the CWA. Additional pops should stay southwest of the CWA per surface trough Saturday afternoon/evening. Another clipper could bring additional chances of moisture (pops 20-35%) mainly east of the James River late Monday/Tuesday AM. Even with these chances QPF looks to be minimal to none.

With temperatures finally warming up into the 60s today and 60s to mid 70s Friday, afternoon relative humidity is expected to tank with ongoing dry air over the CWA on the backside of this low. Did add some HRRR into the NBM mix to lower dp's even though overall they will increase through Friday into the 30s. With this blend, Min RH values are forecast to range between 20 to 30% both afternoons, lowest west of the James River this afternoon and along and west of the Mo River Friday afternoon. Winds will be marginal this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph but that is really only over far northeastern SD/western MN. Friday could be more a critical fire weather day as winds will be bit stronger, gusting between 25-30 mph with stronger gusts to 35 mph by the late morning/midday through the afternoon. We have been without real measurable rain for about a week now, so fuels are either still dry or dried out. Low confidence on fuel status and still a run or two of the model did not issue any Fire Headline on this shift.

Otherwise, a slight cooldown in temps this weekend with the passing of a cold front associated with the clipper low on Saturday and high pressure moving in from Canada Sunday. Overall highs will range in the upper 50s/60s Saturday and 60s to around 70 Sunday. Highs are still running about 5-10 degrees below average east of the James River. With the ridge becoming broader next week temps are forecast to warm back up into the 70s to potentially the lower to mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the entire TAF valid period. Light winds around 10 knots or less are expected during this forecast cycle.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.