textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system will bring snow, heavy at times, tonight into Sunday morning. Snowfall totals of 3-9 inches west of a line from Aberdeen to Clark and 10-18 inches to the east, with highest snowfall amount to occur along the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau.

- Sustained winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 55 mph develop Saturday night and lead to blowing/drifting snow and white out/blizzard conditions over much of the region into Sunday.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some 15 to 30 degrees below normal. Wind chill values heading into Monday morning are expected to be in the teens below to 20s below zero.

- There's a 50-70% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday, primarily east of the Missouri River. At this time, precipitation accumulation is expected to be light.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The band of snow associated with the 700mb FGen has largely shifted north of the ND/SD border at this time, with the main indications of light snow occurring at KBTN and nothing significant noted on webcams. That band will be the main focus for the start of the next wave of precipitation as it drops to the south tonight.

The southward transition of the snow band will be driven by the shortwave currently located in the PacNW that will be driving southeast and amplifying the upper trough over the central CONUS. As that occurs, the low currently in WY will drop southeast into KS and intensify. With that additional forcing and the 850-700mb low moving through SD, expect the snow band to drop south back into the area and intensify. Do expect snowfall rates in this band to be in the 1- 2 in/hr range this evening and the big question is the location and speed, as it drives much of the snowfall forecast. Models still vary somewhat on the location, but there a consensus in the strong WAA/FGen (aided by increasing southerly winds) that will be positioned east of the 850-700mb low and focused initially in northern SD before fairly quickly shifting into east-central SD. Because of the expected quick movement south across northern portions of SD, have seen a little decrease in QPF/Snow from the models and that seems to make sense and did trend things down around 1-2". Could even see that trend down another inch or so if that quick transition south remains this evening. Those downward trends are based on the latest trend in the GEFS members (which were running the highest on QPF and are now more in line with EC-EPS) and the latest 12Z global/CAM consensus. In addition, our QPF forecast was running at or a little above the 75th percentile of the latest 12Z HREF membership, so the trends put it towards the 50th percentile. But farther east into east-central SD, the combination of the longer period of the 1-2 in/hr snowfall rates and upslope enhancement on the east side of the Coteau, points towards snowfall totals in the 10-18 inch range. Wouldn't be surprised to see some locally higher amounts on the eastern slopes of the Coteau, where the enhancement is maximized. Before getting into the winds, do want to mention that the precip should start out as rain initially over south central SD, but then quickly transition to snow.

Heading into the overnight hours, the low will start tracking towards IA, while a 1038mb Canadian high drops into eastern MT and western ND. This will tighten the pressure gradient tonight and with moderate-strong cold air advection in the low levels over our area, expect winds to get quite gusty after midnight. With the steep low level lapse rates and 925-850mb mean winds of 35 to 45kts, expect gusts in the 35-55mph range starting after midnight and continuing into the morning hours on Sunday. Even NBM 24hr probs for wind gusts of 55mph or greater are in the 50-70% range for Sunday (primarily morning), so can't rule out the potential for some High Wind Warning level gusts. These strong winds, combined with the falling snow (although starting to weaken in intensity overnight), still point to blizzard conditions for most of the area overnight into Sunday morning. Thus, the going Blizzard Warning looks to be in good shape. Did add in Walworth, Sully, Potter counties to the Blizzard Warning with the latest wind expectations producing a good 6 hours of blizzard conditions based on the Blowing Snow Model.

Models continue to show a pretty rapid decrease in snowfall intensity from northwest to southeast on Sunday morning, with the falling snow likely out of the area by 18Z. Should still see blizzard or near blizzard conditions initially after the snow ends, but as the snow age grows and we start to see sustained winds diminish due to the approaching on Sunday afternoon, there will be a slow improvement to the visibility reductions from blowing snow. That will continue into Sunday night, but over the east, the lingering pressure gradient and low level mixing will still be enough to keep the winds up (gusts in the 20-35mph range) along/east of the I-29 corridor on Sunday night. Thus, expect blowing snow impacts to continue in that area and believe we'll likely need a winter weather advisory at some point on the backside of the event. In addition, wind chills Sunday night into Monday will be in the -15 to -25 degree range as temps fall below zero.

With the cold air in place, we'll see temps well below normal on Monday (highs in the single digits and teens above zero) before a warming trend into the second half of the week as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Leading that transition will be a shortwave rounding the ridge on Tuesday, bringing the potential for some precipitation to the area. Latest trends point to the 850-700mb warm air advection forced precipitation to be focused over eastern SD and into MN. With the warm nose aloft, it does bring the potential for a wintry mix on the western side of the precipitation in eastern SD, so will fine tue that in the coming days. Otherwise, the building ridge will lead to temperatures warming fairly significantly on Wednesday (highs will be kept down over northeast SD under the deeper snowpack) and continuing into Thursday (highs in the upper 40s along the MN/SD border and up to the lower 70s in central SD). Rapid snow melt is expected Thursday into Friday over the east where the deepest snow will linger. The ridge and the above normal temps look to remain in place through next weekend, although it will likely become suppressed with time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The band of snow has shifted north of the TAF sites at this point, which will bring a 4-6 hour break to KMBG/KABR until it shifts back to the south towards evening. That snow band will increase in intensity this evening and produce snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or more as it drops south. Those snowfall rates, when combined with the increasing winds, will lead to blizzard conditions developing around or after 06Z. With the strong winds continuing into Sunday, expect the blowing snow to remain after the snow ends from northwest to southeast through the morning hours. Finally, did want to mention a mix of rain/snow expected at KPIR this evening on the leading edge of the heaviest precipitation. It looks to be short lived and switch to all snow pretty quickly as colder air moves in.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CDT Sunday for SDZ007-008-011.

Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ007-008-011- 020>023.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for SDZ003- 004-015.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for SDZ005-006-009- 010-016-034.

Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ005-006-010- 017>019-036-037.

Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ009-016-034.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for SDZ017>019-036-037.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Sunday for SDZ020>023.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

Blizzard Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ039-046.

Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ039-046.