textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog with pockets of visibility at or below 1 mile will continue through this evening over portions of northern and northeast SD. - Light rain or drizzle will continue over portions of northeastern SD (mainly near the ND/SD border) this evening. An additional round of light rain is expected late this evening into late Sunday morning. Rainfall through Sunday morning will be around a tenth of an inch or less.

- Expect widespread moderate rain Monday morning through early Tuesday. There is a 25 to 35 percent chance of receiving 3 inches or more rain by Tuesday afternoon over portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The lightest rainfall amounts, totaling generally less than an inch are forecast west of a line from Mobridge to Eagle Butte.

- Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri River, and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into early Tuesday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 925 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Fog and stratus are gradually eroding away to the north towards the ND/SD border this evening as the warm front continues advancing northward. There are still a few areas of lower visibility across northern SD on area web cams, mainly along and north of Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune vsby/fog/wx grids to match lingering fog areas. That said, models continue to suggest additional areas of stratus to develop/move into the region overnight. Hi-res models continue to show scattered light showers moving northward across the eastern CWA during the overnight hours, with no major changes to the 20-40% chances that are in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Steady light showers have remained mainly near and south of a line from Watertown to Miller today, with sprinkles/drizzle and fog being the main concern. There are still a few pockets of lower visibility that will continue to improve from north to south this afternoon into this evening. Pockets of 1 mile or less visibility are most likely to remain into this evening across western Corson, Campbell, McPherson and Edmunds Counties. The warm front near our southern counties will continue to push north and reside mainly north of the ND/SD border by 03Z Sunday as the surface low shifts across far western SD. This should help improve visibilities and bring about at least some temporary relief to the lower clouds. An additional round of moisture will push in in advance of the next low across WY/CO Sunday evening with showers becoming widespread.

The more steady moderate rainfall will behind late Sunday evening, with much of the rain falling during the daytime hours Monday. Rainfall amounts continue to show a large spread, but confidence is increasing as the time nears that rainfall amounts of over half an inch will be more and more likely (even across north central SD where the lightest amounts are anticipated). There is a 25 to 35 percent chance of receiving 3 inches or more rain by Tuesday afternoon over portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The lightest rainfall amounts, totaling generally less than an inch are forecast west of a line from Mobridge to Eagle Butte. We will need to monitor river/stream levels due to this prolonged period of rain. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast is in the Marginal category for the entire area. There is also a General Risk of thunderstorms over our far southeastern counties for this time period (Monday) so brief heavy pockets of rain will not be completely out of the question.

Otherwise, winds will be a concern for portions of central SD behind the exiting low. Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri River, and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into early Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Pockets of MVFR/IFR CIGs this evening over portions of the region, but we may be in a brief "clearing out" of widespread low clouds at the TAF sites this evening, before more MVFR/IFR CIGs redevelop into the nighttime hours. VSBY seems to be improving across the region as well, with indications of mostly VFR VSBY during the overnight hours, but will certainly have to pay attention to any FG/BR redevelopment this evening. Also anticipate pockets of -RA entering the region tonight, mainly affecting KABR/KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.