textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Abnormal warmth continues over the region today. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be near record values.

- Strong southerly winds gusting up to 25-35 miles per hour will impact northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota today. Localized gusts up to 45 mph along will be possible on the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau.

- The abnormal warmth and strong winds will create elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon, mainly over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Some blowing dust will also be possible today, creating some visibility reductions at times.

- Pattern changes to cooler temperatures Sunday, along with increasing chances for rain next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 938 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

No changes planned, at this time, to the today period forecast. Grassland Fire Danger Index is going to be flirting between high and very high fire danger across and east of the Prairie Coteau today. Sticking with the Special Weather Statement over that area for now.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Main forecast concerns today stem from a low-level jet located mainly over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota today. Strong winds late this morning into the early afternoon will reach up to 25 to 35 miles per hour in that area, with some localized gusts up to 45 miles per hour possible along the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau due to downsloping effects. Due to the low-level jet sliding eastward during the afternoon, wind gusts at the surface are expected to decrease through the afternoon. This will prevent the strongest winds from coinciding with the lowest humidity during the afternoon, although gusts up to 30 miles per hour will still be present during that time frame. Abnormal warmth this afternoon (25+ Celsius at 850mb translates to near-record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) will push humidity down to 25-35% east of the James River this afternoon. That area will fall just short of Red Flag Criteria, and have opted to stick with a Special Weather Statement to cover the impacts instead. Grassland Fire Danger will reach the High Category this afternoon east of Brown and Spink due to the strong winds and low humidity. A somewhat similar story can be told over parts of central and north central South Dakota. There are some fire weather concerns due to humidity dropping below 20 percent at times. However, with the decreasing winds through the day expected over that area as well, by the time humidity values bottom out gusts will have dropped to 15 to 20 miles per hour. Therefore, central South Dakota will also remain free of any headlines, but will keep a close eye on how conditions evolve over both areas of concern today. In addition, the harvest season means that these strong winds may kick up some dust today as well, possibly creating some visibility reductions.

The next chances for any substantial rain will come on Monday. A small shortwave disturbance accompanied by some divergence aloft will produce these showers, but the lack of any strong forcing mechanism will keep rain rates fairly low. Expect the majority of the rain to fall over north central South Dakota, perhaps extending into northeastern South Dakota along the border with North Dakota. Generally only expecting to see a few hundredths of rain with this system, and the latest NBM probabilities of seeing a tenth of an inch through Monday evening hold steady at 10-40%, increasing moving from southeast to northwest.

Extended model guidance continues to show the upper-level trough over the western CONUS developing a Colorado Low into the region by mid to late next week. Over the past 24 hours, ensemble spread for rainfall totals has only grown, median values through Friday morning now sit between half and three quarters of an inch. Mostly rain can be expected, although cooler air aloft will infiltrate into the region on the back side of the system, perhaps allowing for some flurries to fly early Friday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. A brief period of low-level wind shear still forecast to affect KATY early this morning. Southerly surface wind gusts will range from 20 to 30 kts over KABR/KATY today.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.