textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures (5 to 25 degrees) tonight through early next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday and then again Monday, with highs in the 40s (northeast/north central SD/western MN) to near 60 (central SD).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Mid afternoon conditions across the forecast area continue to feature a solid low stratus deck blanketing most of the area as temperatures have remained steady in the 20s east to the mid to upper 30s west. The western edge of the stratus has been slowly shifting east into central SD since midday. However, a thicker veil of high cirrus is moving overhead preventing any substantial clearing. The western edge of the low stratus will continue to shift east a bit more through the remainder of the day and could encroach on the James Valley closer to sunset.

Sfc ridging will slip off to our southeast late this afternoon into this evening. We'll pick up a southwest wind in the low levels which should help to push out some of the low stratus. However, some model guidance has taken a bit of a pessimistic approach to cloud cover retaining mostly cloudy skies across our east tonight and filling back in across the west. The thicker cirrus will replace any loss of the low stratus deck. This will maintain mild overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s, resembling close to what our normal daytime highs are this time of year. There will be a period of time late this evening into early Thursday where the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau see gusty winds of 35-40 mph.

Sfc low pressure will track across parts of Saskatchewan/Manitoba and into western Ontario tonight. An associated warm front is progged to push through our forecast area tonight setting up a warm air advection pattern that will persist through the end of the day Thursday. Maintained a dry forecast tonight, even though there was some guidance earlier today that suggested portions of our eastern zones could see some very light precip. Soundings do saturate aloft(DGZ) with a notable area of dry air below that. There will be some leftover low level saturation and it's possible somebody may see a pocket of light freezing drizzle late this evening into early Thursday, but the low level moisture remains rather shallow. Something to monitor though through this evening. During the day Thursday, 925mb climb to between +5C to +10C across the eastern CWA while central SD sees readings of +10C to +15C on Thursday. This will lead to highs in the low to mid 50s across central SD with a few readings around 60 in south central SD. The combination of this mild air and dry conditions will elevate the fire danger to the high category across Jones County during the afternoon. Not quite that warm farther east but readings should still top out in the upper 30s to upper 40s. One of the caveats to the temperature forecast will be cloud cover. Some guidance suggest cloud cover will persist across our eastern zones which would keep a lid on warming. BUFKIT profiles also show a persistent low level inversion across northeast SD and west central MN which would prevent any notable mixing.

A backdoor cold front and sfc ridging build south and southwest across our eastern zones on Friday. This will put a temporary hold on the mild trend. Readings may actually remain steady or slowly fall from the 20s to near 30 early in the day to the mid to upper teens by late in the day. By the weekend into early next week, we'll see upper ridging begin to build back into the Northern Plains and a warmer air mass returning. Mostly dry and mild conditions will continue through this time. However, in this persistent northwesterly flow aloft pattern, it wouldn't be unheard of to see more subtle upper waves move through and potentially deliver some light precip to the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR cigs will continue to persist through this afternoon at all terminals, although some improvements to VFR will be possible at KPIR/KMBG late this afternoon. Was optimistic on improving cigs at KABR/KATY this evening but it's possible low stratus could linger longer into the overnight hours, so we'll have to monitor trends and amend the forecast as needed. Low level wind shear remains in the forecast for all TAF sites late this evening through early Thursday morning as increasing northwest winds off the deck are expected.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.