textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Band of light fluffy snow continues to migrate east through the James valley, with 1 to 4 inches of snowfall.

- Second round of snow moves in tonight and continues through mid day Monday with an additional 1 to 3 inches.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle of next week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15 to 25 degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 5 to 15 degrees below zero forecast for Sunday and Monday mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overall not much change in regards to the snow amounts and overall progression of this system/systems. Snow accumulations on SDSU Mesonets run between 1 to 2 inches, in line with the 1 to 3 NBM was generating between 12Z and 00Z today. There was probably some loss due to dry air that was evident in BUFKIT profiles. Webcams also support premise that most of the snow is falling as large dendrites as the dendritic growth zone is about 6kft thick with little wind to break up the flakes. Thus, NBM snow ratios of 16:1 to 18:1 also remain appropriate. CAMS match these trends as well, so really no need to deviate the current headline configuration, though there will be a slight delay as mentioned due to the time its taken to saturate down east of here.

CAMS continue to show a little bit of a lull this evening in western/central South Dakota while the snow band moves through the east. Then the next wave of snow comes through 06-12Z and persists across the east even as late as in the far east 21Z. More low QPF high snow ratio, but also a broader area, and this time without the need to saturate down through the profiles.

We remain under the influence of the upper low over the Canadian Arctic, with another shortwave pinwheeling around for Monday. Just some mid/high clouds with this feature. These will help to temper our temperature drops as the core of the coldest air remains situated overhead Sunday/Monday.

There is another wave for late Tuesday, a northwest flow type clipper in Canada. This will allow for a brief surge of some milder air aloft, followed by a cold front and another arctic surge. This is when we see the NBM/Ensembles show an increasing range in highs/lows, which only increases in uncertainty for the latter half of next week. Overall however appears dry, though with this airmass in place deterministic models are going to have a hard time spotting shallow moisture layers within the dendritic growth zone that could produces transient/brief periods of light snow and flurries.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR conditions will persist into Saturday morning with snow lingering.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ004>008-011-018>023-033-035-045-048-051.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ003-009-010-015>017-034-036-037.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MNZ046.