textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There's a chance (20-40%) for light rain over northern SD and west central MN this evening, with rainfall amounts mainly less than 0.1 inch.

- Colder temperatures arriving Thursday through Saturday, with highs only in the 30s and 40s. Above normal temperatures likely returning by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Despite decent returns on radar, high ceilings and 20 degree dewpoint spreads are keeping any precip to virga or sprinkles across SD and west central MN so far this evening. No major changes planned to the current forecast tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Wave of interest for this evening shows up nicely on water vapor satellite imagery over eastern MT. This wave will continue moving eastward into the nighttime hours while a surface low also tracks southeast across the area. Latest models continue to show light rain potential across the northern third of SD into west central MN through the late afternoon and evening hours. PoPs have been increased slightly across the northern CWA, generally from 20 to 40 percent. It still appears any rainfall amounts will be below 0.25in, and likely even less than 0.10in.

Mid/upper flow then becomes northerly Wed-Fri, while a surface ridge axis sets up shop and looks to stay in place for some time. By Saturday morning, the ridge axis has only moved into MN, while still largely having an influence on our weather. Colder air aloft still set to spill southward across the region, more so the eastern CWA where 850mb temps drop below zero C. High temps Thursday (and now Friday) are only in the upper 30s for the eastern CWA. What has been noticed in the models is that the colder air lingers around longer over the area before the next warm up begins. We really don't see widespread 50s returning to the area now until Monday and Tuesday, whereas 24 to 48 hours ago it appeared we would start warming up by Sunday already.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.