textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal this weekend into most of next week.

- There is a 20-50 percent chance for showers on Saturday, otherwise the rest of the weekend through most of next week will be dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFS below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A northwest flow aloft pattern will persist across the Northern Plains this weekend into most of next week. A series of weak upper level waves will pass through this flow leading to a rollercoaster temperature pattern of sorts over the course of the next several days. Sfc high pressure exits east tonight. A fairly healthy southerly return flow has set up across central SD this afternoon and will traverse east tonight. Temperatures will not be quite as cool overnight as they were this morning with readings in the mid 40s to low 50s. South to southwest flow ahead of the first upper wave will start us off Saturday. Sfc low pressure and associated cold front approach the area by morning. Timing of the fropa closer to midday or afternoon should be enough to bump of 850mb temps into the low to mid teens C. This translates into highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Thickening cloud cover will accompany this fropa along with a 20-50 percent chance of showers. Moisture looks limited so expect hit and miss variety shower where not everyone sees rainfall.

Winds turn northwest behind the front and become gusty up to 25-40 mph during the afternoon across central SD and as far east as the James Valley. We cold advect Saturday night as sfc high pressure begins to build in. With the high to our west and northwest most of Saturday night into Sunday should help to prevent any significant temperature falls to frosty levels. The weekend will finish on a dry and cooler note but with readings still near normal for early October. The high will exit to our east come Monday and we'll be back to strong southerly flow and a warm air advection pattern. Expecting temperatures through the early to middle portion of next week to warm back above normal with daytime highs in the 70s. Tuesday still appears that it will be the warmest day of the next several with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low to mid clouds continue over far northeastern SD into western MN with additional mid to high clouds skirting across the ND/SD border. This is associated with a mid level shortwave and surface low over the northern Rockies. VFR cigs are forecast to prevail through the TAF period. The last of the light rain/sprinkles is exiting eastern SD with overall dry conditions expected. Per a low level jet, southeast winds continue to be gusty at KPIR/KMBG with gusts ranging between 25-30 kts. This will continue through this evening before diminishing overnight. However, KABR/KATY will see southeast winds pick up through this evening into tonight. Per this jet, low level winds shear (LLWS) will remain possible at KABR/KATY/KPIR terminals late this evening through early to mid morning Saturday. Expect a wind shift from the west to northwest,behind a cold front, towards the end of the TAF period. Light rain chances return to mainly late morning through the afternoon Saturday at KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.