textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures well above normal will continue today and Monday. Much of the area will flirt with record high temperatures today.

- Warm temperatures, low dew points, and strong wind gusts will all combine to create elevated fire weather concerns today, particularly over south central South Dakota. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM CST through 6 PM CST today for Jones, Lyman, and Buffalo counties.

- Precipitation chances (60-80%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Well above normal temperatures continue today (and to a lesser extent Monday) due to a broad upper-level ridge in place. Near record temperatures are anticipated today, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s expected. Southerly winds will advect dry air into the region, keeping dew points in the low 20s to potentially even upper teens over south central South Dakota. With afternoon wind gusts peaking around 25 miles per hour for a few hours, confidence has increased in Red Flag conditions. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Jones, Lyman, and Buffalo counties. Elsewhere, humidity will be a bit higher and winds a bit lower, keeping those areas below criteria.

Upper-level ridge will progress eastward beginning Monday, giving way to and upper-level trough that will develop a low pressure center into the Northern Plains. QPF amounts Tuesday through Wednesday have held mostly steady (perhaps a slight drop) over the past 24 hours, with ensemble medians ranging from a quarter to half an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation. However, increasing confidence in temperatures remaining above freezing overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning has delayed the transition from rain to snow until the passage of the cold front Wednesday morning, after the majority of the precipitation will have fallen. This of course significantly limits the amount of snow that will fall, with the expectation now being that northeastern South Dakota may see a couple of inches of accumulation at the most. The caveat to the reduced totals is that afternoon winds will be upwards of 30 knots, which when combined with falling snow will likely cause visibility reductions, potentially significant at times.

Another round of precipitation is expected to move in on Thursday due to a shortwave aloft. This time, all snow is anticipated, centered over central South Dakota. At this point just a couple of inches at the most expected, but afternoon wind gusts around 30 knots will once again be the greatest concern, reducing visibilities when combined with falling snow.

So, a split flow pattern has developed along and west of the U.S. west coast at the start of the period, with an upper level ridge downstream of it over the U.S. Rocky mountains. From Thursday through Friday night, the split flow pattern is forecast to evolve into more of a unified/connected steering pattern that showcases a broad (not overly amplified) upper level ridge stretching from coast to coast. Deterministic GSM's and ensemble clusters analysis suggests that it could take from Saturday to Tuesday morning to move the upper level ridge axis to a position east of the CWA, while new upper level trof/energy digs out a new west coast longwave trof. At some point after 12Z Tuesday of next week, some scrutiny will be needed interrogating potential chunks of low pressure energy (potential rounds of precipitation) lifting out of this western CONUS longwave trof.

So, besides a small (20-40 percent) chance of precipitation Tuesday, the extended forecast period is dry and warm. S.A. Ensemble tables for both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems show, at least, 1 standard deviation above normal 850hpa temps for most of the period. And, 25th to 75th percentile ranges for temperature are rather small, lending confidence to the continued above normal temperature forecast being advertised.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ045-048-051.

MN...None.