textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for severe storms for portions of central South Dakota this evening and tonight and a Marginal Risk again late Monday afternoon through Monday night along and east of a line from Wheaton, MN to Hayes, SD. Main threats include 1 inch diameter hail and wind gusts of 60 mph. Brief heavy rainfall is also possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Sfc high pressure slides to the southeast tonight. That will allow weak sfc low pressure to move into central SD. Forcing is pretty weak, but there is a marginal risk for severe storms this evening west river. With no marked llj, there's really only a shortwave moving through to get anything going. Could see something develop farther west and maintain itself into Jones/Stanley.

By Monday afternoon, the weak sfc low slides into eastern SD. The marginal risk shifts with it, stretching from Wheaton, MN to Hayes, SD and including points south. Interestingly, ConsShort/ECAM are picking up on a few potential storms in the wind gust grids east of the James Valley around 22z. Looks like a couple of bulls-eyes of 35 kts. Left them in as the timing seems plausible even if the actual location may be off a bit. Shortwave activity does pick up between 21z and 0z and may add enough energy to kick off some storms along with increasing shear. The active pattern extends into Wednesday, though any severe threat will remain south of I-90 on Tuesday.

What looks to be a dry and windy cold front moves through on Friday with high pressure building in behind it for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.