textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal through Monday, in the 40s and 50s. Today and Sunday will be the warmest days.

- Turning markedly colder starting Tuesday, as temperatures drop into the teens at night and 20s and low 30s during the day.

- There is a 30-50 percent chance of precipitation starting Monday morning through Tuesday. The precipitation type will be rain Monday, before transitioning to snow on Tuesday.

- In addition to any falling snow Tuesday, there is the potential for strong northwest winds in excess of 30 mph with gusts in excess of 45 mph to develop Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

We're starting out this morning with an area of low pressure set up mainly over southern Manitoba, with a cold front stretching southwest through ND and far western SD. Winds behind the front have increased out of the west with gusts of 20-30mph. The dry cold front will be mainly associated with some clouds and the change in wind direction/speed. The cold front will sink along the SD/NE border trough central MN by 18Z and with high pressure quickly building in it. Despite the cold front, temperatures will still rise into the 50s today, which is 10 to near 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Slightly warmer air will move in Sunday, still topping out in the 50s, as a warm front shifts north across the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sunday night through Monday, the split upper-level flow over SD pushes an upper-level low from the southwest US towards the northeast. At the surface, low pressure over NM/CO starts to move towards the northeast, though models vary the track and speed slightly. The models have the low in MN by Monday night, with most having the low move out of MN by Tuesday afternoon, however, the GFS keeps the low over eastern MN until Wednesday morning. Precipitation around this low is forecast to move into southern SD Monday morning spreading north through the day with 30-60% chance for precipitation over central and eastern SD by Monday night and 20-40% chance for precipitation for areas north of I-90 Tuesday. Precipitation should move out of SD Tuesday night, however if the low follows what the GFS is showing, precipitation chances could stay around for a bit longer.

With warmer temperatures around Monday, the precipitation will stay as rain through the day and into the night. Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, the cooler temperatures will start moving in causing the rain to start changing over to a rain/snow mix then snow starting in central SD and moving into eastern SD by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, the precipitation should be mostly snow for central and eastern SD. Snowfall amounts from this system are currently forecast to stay below an inch for most of central and eastern SD. There does look to be a 30-50% chance for greater than an inch of snow to fall over the Prairie Coteau and 30-40% chance for the Leola hills by Wednesday morning. There is a bit of spread between the ensemble models over the Prairie Coteau for snowfall amounts, varying between 0.5-4 inches, highest over the Sisseton hills.

Another hazard to note with this system is the strong winds coming in as the cold air starts to advect into SD Monday night through Tuesday. There is a bit of variability in the winds as to the strength and how long they last, specifically the GFS keeping its low pressure in MN longer causing winds to be much stronger and staying around for longer. Ensembles are showing a 30-50% chance for wind to gust greater than 45mph occurring over central SD during the day Tuesday while the GFS is showing gusts up around 50-55mph. The differences between the model solutions, as well as the ensembles decreasing the wind speeds slightly over the past few runs, causes some uncertainty in the strength of the winds Monday night through Tuesday. This will need to be monitored as the system gets close to see if the solutions come to an agreement. These strong winds in combination with the snow falling Tuesday have the potential to cause blowing snow in areas, especially over the Leola hills and along the Prairie Coteau. This blowing snow could reduce visibilities at times causing hazards to those who are traveling. The colder air moving in with this system will cause temperature that are 10-15 degrees warmer than normal on Monday to drop like a rock. Higher surface pressure moving into central and eastern SD with winds from the northwest Wednesday and Thursday will help to keep precipitation out of the area while also lowering temperatures to be 5-10 degrees colder than normal by Thursday, with highs in the 20s to low 30s and low temperatures in the teens.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.