textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and drizzle will continue before slowly diminishing over central SD Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light, ranging from 0.01 to 0.4 inches, with the highest amounts east of a line from Groton to Redfield through Tuesday afternoon. A 50-80% chance of light rain will continue over northeastern SD/west central MN into Wednesday night.

- Winds out of the north will gust 30 to 45 mph, lowest over west central MN. Higher gusts nearing 45 to 50 mph mainly west of the Missouri River. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of central SD through Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The steady moderate to heavy rain has come to an end as the cold shift has moved into western MN. Still, plenty of light rain and drizzle remains. Precipitation totals through the day Tuesday will be light, with a 40% chance of over 0.25" east of a line from Groton to Redfield. Additional rain will wrap into the area (northeastern SD/west central MN through Wednesday evening). The main changes this evening were to keep at least the mention of light rain through the area and increase the temperatures for tonight. Lows will only be in the 40s, with nearly steady temperatures expected during the daytime hours Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As of 12pm, the center of the ~994mb low is hovering right over the James River Valley with its cold front extending southward into NE. East of the James River is still within the warm sector in south to slight southeasterly flow where west of the James River is in northwest to northerly flow behind the fropa. Per marginally steep pressure gradients and weak CAA on the backside of the low, winds will start to pick up across central SD this afternoon with gusts of 35 to 45 mph through this evening, with the highest gusts along and west of the Mo River where a Wind Advisory has been issued. Locally higher gusts are possible. With this position of the low/front, areas between the Mo and James River are within the dry slot with little to no rain falling as locations west of the Mo is on the southern edge of the comma/wrap around with scattered light rain showers. Rain also continues over far NESD/MN.

The HRRR continues to show the threat for spotty thunderstorms developing along the cold front (south of the warm front within the warm sector) mainly across the Coteau and eastward this afternoon into the early evening (~19-23Z). For this area, REFs SBCape is pretty marginal (about 200j/kg) with a potential max of 500-1000j/kg and wind shear of 25-30kts. However, mid level lapse rates are pretty weak with values of 4-5C/km. With this cyclonic flow around the center of the low, REFS actually indicates 0-1km SRH of 200- 300m2s2 and STP is up to 0.5 for a few hours over eastern central SD (with the threat more south of the CWA) and 0-1km shear around 20-25kts giving a slight curved hodograph. So to reiterate, severe weather is not anticipated, however, if convective parameters come together perfectly there could be the potential for an isolated supercell or two capable of producing a tornado. Again the chances of this happening are very low, but not zero. SPC does not have this region outlooked for any severe weather with just general thunderstorms possible.

By 00Z, the center of the low will continue to slowly track northeast and positioned over SD/ND/MN border with the low over ~northeastern MN/WI by 12Z Tuesday. ENS is still a bit slower and more southwest with the track than GEFS at this point. This evening HRRR/REFS both indicate scattered rain showers ongoing across western SD to portions of central SD (mainly north central SD). Models both show the rain really tapering off over much of the CWA by midnight, if not before, keeping coverage pretty spotty (with the exception of far NE/SD closer to the low). REFS/HRRR really does not have the rain filling back in (and really James Valley and eastward) until late morning or midday on Tuesday with rain continuing over this area through Tuesday night. A secondary low to our south (tracking northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday across IA into MN/WI) will bring reinforced moisture, leading to more wrap around rain showers during this time and even spreading back further west of the James Valley Wednesday. The rain will finally taper off from the Mo River eastward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Probability of additional rainfall amounts of one inch or more is 40 to 70% James Valley and eastward and highest along and east of I29.

As the weak CAA spreads eastward (and ongoing steep pressure gradients) the stronger winds will also spread eastward through the overnight hours with gusts of 30 to 45 mph across the entire CWA by Tuesday morning where it will remain gusty. Winds diminish a bit Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but still remain breezy, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Overall, winds really do not diminishing until late Thursday or so.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

We'll start with low end MVFR to IFR conditions (mainly due to ceilings) across the area, with winds out of the north-northwest gusting 25-37kts. The strongest winds will remain over central SD, across PIR/MBG. While winds continue to gust 25-30kts over ABR/ATY through the rest of the period, they will diminish to around 25- 30kts by Tuesday afternoon. MBG and PIR will have the best chance of getting back to VFR conditions after 22Z Tuesday. Otherwise, expect MVFR to IFR conditions to continue at ATY/ABR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ003-015. Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ033- 045-048. MN...None.