textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-40 percent chance for showers today, mainly north of Highway 14, otherwise the rest of the weekend through most of next week will be dry.

- Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal this weekend into most of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

UPDATE for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

There will be just a few hours this morning where, with about 50kts in the critical layer, Coteau downslope conditions are favored. Flow above this layer is unidirectional out of the west, so could be some localized 50 mph gusts on the southeast Sisseton hills/Buffalo ridge area.

A weak wave crosses the region today, with an environment ahead of this feature dominated by elevated skinny CAPE in a steep lapse rate environment with limited moisture. There is a warm nose below this instability, suggesting only the strongest elevated convection will result in moisture at the ground, though with the added wrinkle of the potential for warm microburst type brief gusty outflows.

Thats about it for interesting weather. Surface high moves into the region through the day. RRFS and GFS mixed winds top out around 25 to 30kts. Pressure rises only about 5 mb/6 hours. We remain on the east side of the high tonight so gradient winds won't go slack keeping temperatures from bottoming much cooler than 40F. Return flow for late Monday/Monday night. Warmest airmass is early Tuesday, with 850mb temperatures close to +20C before passage of a cold front. The wave associated with this one is weak and moves through the Western Lakes region, so should be dry for us. Northwest flow transitions to ridging aloft thereafter, so conditions remain mid/dry for mid-week to late.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours. The main concerns will be the initial low level wind shear at ATY for the first couple of hours before surface winds increase. Otherwise, there is a 20-40% chance of light rain showers mainly north of PIR today, staying west of ATY this morning, and east of ABR this afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.