textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather late tonight through the day Wednesday across portions of south central and northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Main hazards is hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Western U.S. wildfire smoke (aloft) will be over the region through Wednesday; potentially longer depending on how steering flow winds evolve this week. While most of the smoke should stay aloft, some minor concentrations of near surface smoke could happen Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to happen during the later part of the work week. With highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and dewpoints well into the 60s, especially from Thursday onward, heat- related illnesses can become a concern.

UPDATE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 753 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

No changes planned to the today period forecast. Surface high pressure is trying to influence the region today with slightly cooler, but much drier, boundary layer air. The gradient wind resulting will support some breezy to windy (15-30 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph) west-component winds today, particularly over north central South Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Just a really pleasant morning with temperatures in the 50s/60s and low humidity. No updates at this time. See below for an update to the aviation discussion...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

As a surface pressure sits to the north of SD in Canada today, the cold front the moved through on Monday will turn into a stationary front and will sit to the southeast today. This frontal boundary will help to keep warm, moist air from moving into central and northeastern SD today. This will help to keep temperatures around normal for this time of the year, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Additionally, with the moisture staying out, storm and shower chances will be slim to none through the day, giving a much needed break from storms. Winds will be a bit stronger over north central SD due to the low pressure, with gusts of 35-40 mph possible during the afternoon. The west southwesterly winds will continue to push some wildfire smoke in over central and northeastern SD today. This smoke should stay aloft and dissipate during the evening.

Overnight tonight into Wednesday, the frontal boundary to the southeast will start to move again and will move north into central and northeastern SD Wednesday. The models are forecasting lower instability and moisture over central and northeastern SD overnight into Wednesday morning. While this will limit storm development in central and northeastern SD, there is a better environment to the south along the front that will help storms to develop. With higher shear values from a low level jet over SD, those storms could then move into the central and northeastern SD very early Wednesday morning into the afternoon. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for storms to be severe over south central and northeastern SD. The main hazards will be hail that is 1 inch in diameter and winds gusting up to 60 mph. Additionally, there could be some isolated storms and showers that pop up over central and northeastern SD during the afternoon into the evening.

More wildfire smoke will move in during the day Wednesday after the frontal boundary and storms moves through. This smoke will continue to stay aloft and could create hazy/milky skies at times. Warmer temperatures will also start to move into central and northeastern SD behind the frontal boundary. These temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer than normal, in the low 90s. While the temperatures will increase, the humidity looks to stay a bit drier, with minimum values in the 40 percent range during the afternoon. This will help to keep the heat index values near the temperature, in the low 90s, through the end of the work week. With some upper-level shortwaves moving over SD Thursday and Friday, there will be chances for afternoon and evening pop up showers and storms to develop. There are signs that these storms could be severe, but since it is still a few days out, the exact timing and hazard details are a bit fuzzy. As we get closer, an eye will need to be keeps on upcoming model runs and data to figure out more details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Good VFR through Wednesday afternoon forecast at all four TAF sites. Said conditions could be periodically interrupted, mainly at the KATY terminal and mainly from between 09Z to 21Z, due to shower/thunderstorm chances. Guidance is starting to take shape surrounding the smoke aloft and near the surface, with near surface concentrations/obscuration enough to drop visibility perhaps down to 6 miles.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.