textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue this morning across central SD with a 30-50% chance of accumulations higher than 0.10" along and southwest of a line from about Eagle Butte to Chamberlain.

- There is a 25-45% chance of showers with maybe a rumble or two of thunder Thursday across south central SD. Accumulations of more than 0.10" are around 30-50% south of Pierre.

- A cooler air mass in place through Thursday, which will result in near normal temperatures. However, hot and dry conditions are expected to return Friday through the weekend, with highs in the 90s to the lower 100s.

UPDATE

Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Made some adjustments to hourly pops through early afternoon to better reflect current radar and model trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the low to mid 60s with winds out of the east at around 10 mph. Some showers have moved into central SD. The chance of accumulations of more than 0.10" are 30 to 50% along and southwest of a line from Eagle Butte to Chamberlain. Cooler temperatures continue today with highs in the 80s. HRRR Smoke continues to show some concentrations of smoke aloft and a little at the surface. Might have a slight smokey smell to the air and slightly hazy skies today but not much impact past that.

Cooler temperatures continue into Thursday. Shower with maybe a rumble of thunder or two return during the daylight hours Thursday across south central SD. Models are showing the low prompting these storms farther south than previously forecast so the precipitation chances have also moved south. Few chances for precipitation exist past this. There is a 30-50% chance of more than 0.10" of rainfall south of Pierre. A warm front moves across the area Friday bringing a return to above average temperatures through the weekend. Actual temperatures are forecast to be higher than the last round of heat, at least over central SD, with highs in the mid 100s. Might need to lower high temperatures over eastern SD for the weekend due to a high bias with higher humidity values. The heat seems to lessen going into next work week but stays above average.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.