textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will become more widespread today through early Tuesday. Probabilities of seeing one inch or more range from 20-50 percent across north central SD to 50-90 percent from south central SD into northeast SD and west central MN.

- Snow will mix in with the rain on Monday and Monday night across north central SD. Minor accumulations, especially on grassy surfaces will be possible. There is a 30-60 percent probability of seeing one inch of snow across western Corson County.

UPDATE

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Current conditions early this morning across the forecast feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures mainly in the 30s. Low level cloud cover has been thickening across Nebraska and has been shifting into far southern SD. Surface high pressure centered across the Dakotas this morning will have a temporary hold on weather conditions today across parts of our forecast area. However, changes are in the works as an upper level low across the Four Corners region today sends shortwave energy northward across the Plains. This will aid in an influx of moisture northward into our southern zones during the morning and midday hours. With the sfc ridge positioned to our north and northeast, and a dry northeast fetch into our northern zones, this should keep most of the rainfall across our south through the first half of the day. BUFKIT soundings across northeast SD indicates low level dry air persisting through midday. The lower portion of the atmospheric column begins to saturate during the afternoon hours when more favorable mid level dynamics or UVM becomes stronger. CAMs more or less agree on this scenario with most of the rainfall concentrated to the south through the morning before becoming more widespread during the course of the afternoon into this evening. Although temperatures will remain rather cool today into tonight, p-types across the forecast area remain mostly liquid per the latest EC ENS p-type meteograms. Models begin to disperse the widespread precip coverage later tonight into the overnight hours.

That upper low is progged to shift northeast across the Rockies tonight and out into the Central and Northern Plains Monday into Monday night. Another slug of more significant moisture shifts north into our region. Some of the moisture within this upper low has eastern Pacific origins from remnants of a tropical system. Some noteworthy rainfall from this system is expected to fall in parts of the forecast area. Probabilities of seeing at least 1 inch or more between today and early Tuesday range from 20-50 percent across north central SD to 50-90 percent from south central SD into northeast SD and west central MN. At this point, along and east of a Pierre to Aberdeen line have at least a 70 percent chance or higher of seeing that amount of precipitation. Again, the precipitation type across most of the forecast area will fall as rain per the p- type meteograms, albeit a chilly rain. However, there are some caveats to this that could lead to our first bout of snowfall this season. Timing and placement of the mid and upper low features along with the temperature profile, specifically the strength and depth of a warm nose aloft and near sfc temperatures and moisture or lack thereof in the DGZ will dictate if/when and where snow may occur. Most favorable areas where these ingredients may all come together for frozen precip will be across north central SD. P-type meteograms at MBG indicate a 10-30 percent probability of seeing wet snow Monday afternoon/evening. Again timing and placement of precip and temperatures will be key to any accumulation possibility. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch of accumulation range from 30-60 percent and confined to mainly western Corson County. The intensity of any falling snow plus ground temperatures will be factors if and where snow will stick.

This system will exit to our northeast early Tuesday and quickly be followed up with another upper trough that is currently progged to take a track more to our northwest from MT into ND. If this verifies, our area should remain mostly on the dry side around the middle of the week. Sfc and upper ridging mid to late week should lead to drier conditions and modifying temperatures at or above normal for late October.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Ceilings will gradually lower (from south to north) over the region through the TAF period with MVFR cigs forecast early this afternoon at KPIR and later on tonight at KATY. KABR/KMBG should remain in VFR through the TAF period with lowering cigs to MVFR beyond the forecast time. Rain will track northward across the region and becoming widespread at all TAF sits this evening into tonight with a couple rounds of light to moderate rain through Monday into early Tuesday before finally diminishing southwest to northeast across the region. Any heavier rain bands could result in sub VFR/MVFR cigs. There is a possibility of light snow or a rain/snow mix at KMBG early Monday morning with better chances of snow to the northwest/west of KMBG. Little to no accumulations expected at KMBG. Winds will remain out of the east/northeast and increasing early Monday morning with gusts of 15-20kts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.