textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated storm or two (20-40%) possible this morning over south central SD. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends through south central South Dakota with the main threats being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Another round of isolated to scattered (20-40%) storms is expected this evening overnight into Sunday morning with the focus mainly east of the Missouri River. A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) extends up across this area, with the main threats being hail of 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several days, however there is little potential for the smoke at the surface.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

An upper-level shortwave will be moving over SD early this morning. As this shortwave moves over, a warm front will be pushing through western and central SD. This warm front, in combination with a low level jet pushing moisture into central SD and support from the uppre-level shortwave, could cause some scattered showers and storms to develop this morning. The high-res models do vary the location of these storms, as some of them have the storms moving through south central SD while others keep them to the south. These storms have a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to become severe if something were to develop. This is because of the shear available from the low level jet as well as some stronger mid-level lapse rates, which could cause 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts to get to the surface. Through the morning, the low level jet will dissipate, and the storm threat also decreases. Temperatures will warm slightly behind the warm front moving through. Highs today are expected to be in the 80s to mid 90s, with the warmest temperatures over areas west of the Missouri river. The wildfire smoke will continue to move in over SD along the upper-level northwest flow for the coming days. This smoke looks to continue to stay aloft over central and northeastern SD and cause hazy skies.

Another upper-level shortwave is forecast to move over SD again during the evening into Sunday morning as the models are showing a frontal boundary and/or a surface low moving over northeastern SD. The warmer temperatures through the day will help to build the instability over central and northeastern SD, with some models showing 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE over the area by tonight. This instability, in combination with a front/surface low moving through, will cause some scattered showers and storms to develop late this afternoon into Sunday morning. The models vary how much and where moisture might move in over the area, which does lead to a difference in the models as to where and when storms might develop. In addition to the moisture, the models also show a stronger CAP developing over central and northeastern SD, which would limit the development of storms. Some models have the storms developing in north central SD during the evening where there is less of a CAP and then moving southeast across the area while other models will have some storms break through the CAP in northeastern SD during the overnight hours. Then during the overnight hours, another low level jet will be developing and will help to provide shear to support the storms over northeastern SD. Additionally, there will be some fairly decent mid-level lapse rates, which will help to support the development of large hail and strong winds. There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for these storms to become severe if one develops. The main hazards will be for wind gusts of 60 mph and hail of 1 inch or more in diameter.

Cooler temperatures will be moving in behind the surface low Sunday and into next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Models still vary the chances for shower and storm Sunday night into Monday as the chances for storms to actually occur have decreased through the previous model runs. The showers/storms look to develop along a surface boundary in WY/MT Sunday evening. Then they will move east through the evening overnight into Monday morning. The models vary in how far these showers and storms make it before they dissipate, with some models having the storms move through ND, some have them get into western SD, other have the storms move through central and northeastern SD, and other models have the storms die off before getting anywhere close to the area. This has lowered confidence in showers and storms developing, but chances still remain between 30-50% chance that something moves over the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for storms to become severe if they develop, with the main hazard of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Evening and overnight precipitation chances continue into next week as the upper- levels continue to push shortwaves over SD.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday evening. An isolated shower/storm is possible this morning at KPIR, and then later this afternoon at/near KATY. Later this evening, convection may develop over North Dakota and shift down across the KMBG/KABR terminals.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.