textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning for Today, with heat indices from around 100 to as much as 110 degrees.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe storms east of I-29 late this evening. Just looking at an isolated/20% chance that a storm will develop.

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility across the Missouri valley and points west as a weak system crosses the region.

- Less intense heat but temperatures still 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1026 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Area of mid-level clouds/weak instability continues to spread eastward across the CWA and still have a few light showers/lightning associated with it. Made some small adjustments to PoPs to better match radar trends and expectations over the next couple hours. The abundance of clouds is delaying heating a bit. Although, good clearing is noted from west to east, it just might take a few more hours for the east to clear out. Still expecting very hot temperatures and heat indices today, so no changes to headlines at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Well the first thing we'll really need to evaluate is the smoke potential with all the activity across the west. A trough develops across the western Dakotas later today, with a plume headed into mainly western to central/north central South Dakota and potentially having impacts to visibility. The HRRR shows less smoke moving in at ground level across the east. Aloft, smoke continues but will be most prominent Monday and is likely to have an impact on temperatures.

Regarding the heat today, NBM dewpoints are still forecast close to 70. Looking deeper, the NBM still has a GEFS issue which is overly mixy, and artificially weighing down dewpoints, while the EC and Canadian ensembles picked up on the 'well into 70s' dewpoints that we ended up experiencing yesterday. EC members are a little lower today, while the Canadian members are on par compared to Saturday. Assuming a low bias in NBM dewpoints, and temperatures still maybe just a few degrees too warm temperature-wise east river but on target for the Missouri valley... there is enough evidence for an upgrade to the Advisory to a Heat Warning.

The upper pattern remains stagnant through mid-week with the 4- Corners high and a northwest flow regime east of the ridge axis that persists along the WY/MT and Dakotas state line. The next plume of moisture that pivots around the high and into the Northern Plains comes in late Monday/Tuesday timeframe. A wave coming in off the Pacific eventually suppresses the high and gives us our next, best chance for moisture Wednesday night/Thursday. Otherwise, peak heat continues for now today, with some slight diminishment but still 5 to 15 degrees above normal for the first half of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. The main concern will be smoke that may bring visibility to MVFR levels after 02Z Monday at MBG, 06Z at ABR, and 08Z at PIR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039- 046.