textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for light rain showers are expected over the next few days. Mainly over central South Dakota today, with more widespread chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday. A tenth of an inch or less of rainfall is currently expected today and Wednesday.

- High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected through the work week. Highs will be in the 50s through that period. Weekend highs will increase slightly into the 60s.

UPDATE

Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Rain chances will continue over the next few days, albeit with much briefer duration and much lower rainfall totals than the recently departed system. This afternoon, a shortwave aloft will develop some showers over southwestern South Dakota, potentially clipping parts of Stanley, Jones, and Lyman counties. Developing showers may need to do a little bit of work on saturating the near-surface layer, but will still likely be able to reach the surface this afternoon. Rain rates are expected to be light, and only a few hundredths of an inch are expected. Latest high-resolution ensembles give roughly a 0-20% chance to see a tenth of an inch through this afternoon over that Stanley/Jones/Lyman area. Areas to the north and east of the Missouri River are not expected to see precipitation today, with the possible exception of far eastern South Dakota seeing an isolated light shower in the evening.

A longwave trough will remain over the central CONUS for the next few days, keeping temperatures below normal through Thursday. 850mb temperatures near freezing are between the 10th and 25th percentile for this time of year, translating to highs in the 50s through Thursday. Strong winds aloft in the entrance region of the trough will create rain chances again both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Both setups will be fairly similar: Dry lower-levels, a saturated layer extending between roughly the 750mb-600mb layer, and poor lapse rates above the saturated layer. The latter will, despite some marginal MUCAPE (<250 J/kg), prevent showers from developing into any significant storms, despite some strong low-level lapse rates aiding the divergence aloft in the saturated layer in terms of ease of convection. All that to say, while a stray rumble will be possible, widespread thunderstorms are not expected either Wednesday afternoon or Thursday afternoon.

The trough will progress eastward over the weekend, settling over the eastern CONUS. This progression will still put the northern plains under northerly flow aloft, but height rises will be enough to bring temperatures up to normal to slightly above normal for the weekend (highs in the mid to upper 60s). Chances for precipitation will be limited through most of the weekend, before additional shortwave disturbances may move over the northern plains early next week, generating more precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF valid period. KPIR comes the closest to sub-VFR (cigs) conditions today when showers work through south central South Dakota. Guidance keeps rain chances south of KPIR, so leaving KPIR dry for now.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.