textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A few spotty thunderstorms are possible over portions of northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota this afternoon through the early evening. While no severe weather is anticipated, some storms could produce pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 with any stronger storm.

- A lull in precipitation expected tonight through Saturday night with the return of shower and thunderstorms Sunday and periodically through next week.

A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the 90s this weekend, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

As of 1am, lingering rain and sub severe thunderstorms continue over portions of south central though east central SD and southward. This entire cluster of convection continues to track east. Heavy rains overnight has resulted in some flooding with an Areal Flood Warning in effect over southern Hyde and southwestern Hand Counties.

Mainly zonal flow continues aloft over the Northern Plains early with ongoing weak shortwave energy. Surface low is over Manitoba/Ontario/MN border with its cold front stretching from MN and southwestward through east central to south central SD. By 12Z, this front will track a bit east with the CWA behind the fropa late morning/midday. CAMs indicates most of the convection by this time will mainly be over southern and southeastern SD. However, a few of the Cams show portions of east central SD could be clipped by the ongoing rain. By the midday, high pressure moves in over western SD and ridge aloft over MT/WY through the western Dakotas which will keep central SD dry. Ongoing shortwave energy aloft will continue over the eastern half of the Dakotas with a few of the CAMs indicating the possibility of additional spotty elevated storms firing up (behind the surface cold front) over portions of northeastern SD/western MN this afternoon. Any potential convection will have limited instability as CAPE will be 1000 j/kg or less, however, bulk shear will be around 30kts. The SPC has just general thunderstorms for the outlook today but if any cell within this shear/cape can grow vertically enough into the cooler air aloft, it may produce small hail and wind gusts of 50mph as mid level lapse rates will be rather weak.

The ridge will continue to track east this evening with the CWA underneath it by late tonight where it will continue to build over the Northern Plains through Saturday with the CWA under the western portion of the ridge by Saturday evening. This will keep the weather dry and quiet as high pressure at the surface remains dominant. By Sunday a shortwave and its surface low will will track northeastward and over southeastern SD by early Monday. At the same time, a cold front will track eastward across central SD (per low in Canada) with the fropa along the ~James River by 12Z Monday. These features will bring additional shower and thunderstorms chances Sunday evening/night through Monday morning with pop chances mainly James Valley and eastward by Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday evening. This longwave trough setting up over the western CONUS, and its embedded shortwaves, along with the potential of additional surface low passing over the region will bring periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA through the end of the week. Machine learning models do highlight the potential for severe weather next week, however nothing has been outlooked by the SPC as of now.

With the ridge overhead for the weekend, high temperatures will increase into the upper 80s into the mid 90s Saturday with potential highs reaching the upper 90s over central SD Sunday. Highs will overall be in the 80s on Monday with temps warming back into the 90s Tuesday with the potential for a few 100 degree readings on Wednesday as this looks to be our warmest day of next week. Add in moist dewpoints and a few 100 degree heat indices look possible for a few locations James Valley and eastward. Probability of reaching 100 degrees is 40-65%, highest over south central SD. However the NBM 25-75th spread is quite large, on the order of 7-10 degrees Wednesday and 20 degrees Thursday due to low confidence in exact synoptic setup this far out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The threat for a -SHRA/-TSRA will persist for the first few hours of this TAF cycle at KPIR/KATY and possibly as far north as KABR, but low confidence in any precip reaching that far north. Otherwise, the trends will be for quieter weather conditions going into the daytime hours today with mostly VFR conditions expected. There may be pockets of lower MVFR CIGs or patchy fog across the region early this morning closer to daybreak, but low confidence on overall areal coverage. Anticipate daytime convective -SHRA/-TSRA to pop up during the afternoon hours across northeast SD. This could potentially affect operations at KABR/KATY terminals, although low confidence remains on areal coverage and left the forecast for those TAF sites dry for now.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.