textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwest winds gusting from 40 to 55 mph through this evening, with Wind Advisories in place.

- Increased snowfall amounts for far northeastern SD and west central MN, with 2 to 7" east of the James River through this evening, highest over far northeastern SD and west central MN. Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings in effect.

- Blowing and drifting snow with occasional visibility down below a half mile into this evening. Some of the lowest visibilities of less than a quarter mile at time will be over portions of west central Minnesota, and the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau from Veblen through Sisseton and Summit to Clear Lake late this afternoon into this evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Quick update to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for McPherson county for the rest of the morning hours (to align with Brown County) given the blowing snow potential. The counties near and west of the MO River have been allowed to expire. The Winter Weather Advisory for our east central counties has been extended to align with the rest of northeastern SD, given the downslope enhanced area that may keep visibility down less than 1/2 mile into this evening.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong winds will be the main story today, in between exiting low pressure to our southeast and nearing high pressure from Montana and southern Canada. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected to continue into this evening, before slowly diminishing.

The forecast precipitation amounts have increased once again, not as high as the 00Z NAM which nearly triples the amounts, but closer to a doubling of the previous forecast. It's closer to a blend of the HRRR, NSSLWRF and HREF. As a result, snowfall amounts have gone from 1-2" to closer to 3-7" over our MN counties. It was around a doubling or more of snow for areas northeast of a line from Mobridge to Faulkton and Redfield. Given the increased snowfall and strong winds creating a higher risk of blizzard conditions (particularly this afternoon into this evening), Traverse County has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

Snow this morning will come to an end over much of central South Dakota, but continue over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota through the evening. Falling and drifting snow will create occasional visibility down below a half mile into this evening. Areas along the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau, from Veblen through Sisseton and Summit to Clear Lake make experience brief blizzard-like conditions late this afternoon into this evening, with visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at times. This includes portions of the I-29 corridor. For those traveling into far eastern North Dakota and much of western Minnesota, expect blizzard conditions, with visibilities reduced to a quarter mile or less, particularly this afternoon into this evening.

Steady to falling temperatures are expected today, mainly in the single digits to around 10 degrees above zero. Temperatures will bottom out in the single digits below and above zero tonight. Wind chills of -15 to -25 from mid morning through at least early Monday morning, moderating over central SD prior to daybreak Monday.

Despite temperatures in the single digits today and light snow, strong winds gusting 40 to 55 mph and relative humidity around 50 percent will keep elevated fire weather concerns going for portions of south central South Dakota today. High grassland fire danger index values are over Stanley, Jones, and Lyman Counties today (the areas that are expected to experience the least amount of precipitation today).

Temperatures will moderate back into the teens to low 20s Monday afternoon as winds continue to slowly diminish (gusting 15 to 25 mph by the afternoon hours).

LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the upper-level flow over SD becomes more northwesterly as a trough sits to the east and a ridge builds to the west. While this is happening, low level warm air advection is helping to warm surface temperatures over central and northeastern SD to be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal. This WAA helps to provide some mixing, which will cause some of the stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. While these winds won't be as strong as today's winds, they will still be strong enough to cause some drifting to patchy blowing snow over the Leola hills and the Prairie Coteau, with 30-50% chance for gusts up around 30mph during the afternoon in those areas.

The warm temperatures don't last too long, as a surface low pressure moves from Manitoba into MN during the day Tuesday, pushing cold air back into northeastern SD Tuesday afternoon. This low pressure has precipitation around it, which is forecast to stay mostly over MN. However, some models have a bit of precipitation glancing far northeastern SD and west central MN. There are very low chances for precipitation over this area right now, but it should be kept in mind when looking at upcoming model runs to see if the low's track shifts slightly and chances increase, especially since temperatures will be going from warmer to colder during that time.

A cold frontal boundary attached to the low pressure in MN is forecast to move into and through central and northeastern SD Tuesday night into Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, the models show a weak surface low pressure moving over central SD, tracking along the edge of the cold front. This weak low pressure helps to bring a little bit of WAA over central SD, which will keep temperature at the surface warm while temperatures in the northeast cool down. The interaction of the WAA and cold frontal boundary will also help to cause a line of snow to develop. However, the models still vary the location of this line, its timing, and the intensity of the snowfall. This lowers confidence in the forecasting of the line of snow, so it will need to be watched in the upcoming model runs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Snow is ongoing at all locations, with some improvement being noted at PIR and MBG with conditions still in the MVFR category. Light drifting snow was noted at MBG webcams, with less snow overall at PIR creating less drifting. Winds will continue to gust 35-40kts through this evening, and only slowly weaken overnight with gusts ending at PIR/MBG/ABR between 10-12Z Monday. Snow and blowing snow will continue to be a concern at ABR/ATY through the day and higher snow amounts and strong winds linger. IFR to near LIFR visibilities are forecast until 02-04Z Monday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ007-008-011- 019>023.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for SDZ007-008-011- 021.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ005-006-018.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ006-018.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ010- 017-036-037-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ019- 020-022-023.

MN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-046.

Blizzard Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for MNZ039.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for MNZ046.