textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Band of snow over northern SD and west central MN through this afternoon. Generally 2 to 4 inches expected, with localized amounts closer to 5 possible. Winds/low visibility not a big factor with this system.

- After a cooldown this weekend, temperatures will warm back up to above normal values again next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Added another row of counties to the southern side of the Winter Weather Advisory. Webcams are showing some heavier snowfall than previously anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

As of 1 AM CST, temperatures around the region are in the single digits to mid 20s. Winds are out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph. Snow is currently falling over north central SD and will continue to move east through the morning hours.

Not too much in the way of a change in the forecast today. We are still looking at 2 to 4 inches of accumulation across north central and northeastern SD into west central MN, with some locally higher amounts possible. The main concern with the snowfall forecast is an area of dry air just above the surface over northeast SD and how long it will take for that layer to saturate and snow to reach the ground. If it takes an hour or two, current snowfall totals should be ok, but if it ends up taking five or six hours, we could way underachieve. There is also some instability above that dry layer which could create bands of locally increased intensity of snowfall, which would lead to earlier saturation and therefore earlier snowfall. However, the location of those bands is uncertain. The HREF is showing some 30% chances for snowfall rates of over an inch per hour after about 5 AM across portions of north and east SD. This lasts through the late morning but doesn't look to last for more than an hour at any particular location. Model guidance has shifted south a little, so pulled QPF south a bit to cover that. Added Codington and Deuel counties to the advisory as well. Fortunately, winds don't look to be overly strong so blowing snow is not expected to be an issue this time around.

Temperatures for the weekend will be below average by about 10-20 degrees before we get a warm up for the work week. Still see some light precipitation chances showing up. Some rain showers are possible Monday afternoon, changing over to snow during the evening and overnight hours over far north and northeast SD. Thursday brings back snow chances, but accumulations at this point look to be light. With the warmer temperatures expected this week, grassland fire danger will continue to be an issue in south central SD where there is a lack of snow cover and temperatures are warmest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

At KMBG/KABR/KATY tonight, light to moderate snow will move across northern SD over into northeast South Dakota, with MVFR/IFR VSBY and VFR/MVFR cigs possible/likely. KPIR is currently forecast to remain free of any precipitation or sub-VFR conditions. By mid-day Saturday, the snow should be ending at KMBG, ending at KABR/KATY later Saturday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003>005-009-010-017.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039- 046.