textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning. Widespread moisture unlikely. Cooler Tuesday with highs in the 40s. Northwest winds gusting 30 to 45 mph in the morning.

- Mid week system moves into central SD late Tuesday night bringing accumulating snow. Confidence decreases as system moves east late Wednesday into Thursday. There is a 65% chance of more than 2 inches of snow and a 40 to 50% chance of more than 4 inches of snow through Thursday morning. There is a 25 to 35% chance of greater than 6 inches east of the Missouri River. See discussion for details on why this may not happen.

UPDATE

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 753 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

No significant changes are anticipated to the ongoing forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A tale of three systems this week. The first is a dry cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will return to near to below average behind this front. It will also increase north to northwest winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph. While the surge of caa may wring out what little moisture is available right now, this will result in a passing shower or sprinkle at most, mainly across north central SD.

The mid week system is a major forecasting challenge because it really hinges on forcing from a 700 mb low. Models are notoriously bad at pinpointing location and strength of such lows. And, it's competing against dry air entrainment from sfc high pressure in the east. The initial moisture push starts off in central SD late Tuesday night with some help from a Wyoming sfc low and shortwave energy aloft. Still looks like central SD will be the focal point through much of Wednesday for snow accumulations given best moisture availability on easterly flow and where the support is. The 700 mb low and easterly flow become more pronounced over eastern SD late Wednesday into Thursday. This is where confidence nose-dives due to lack of consistency as models (especially ensembles) trend upward on snow amounts/QPF. For the moment, calling for a generally widespread 2 to 4 inches across the forecast area, but be wary of the choke points: moisture, 700 mb position, lack of additional forcing.

The third system is a more classic stacked low coming off the Rockies on Friday. A lot is still dependent on the track. Much of it could be dry slotted if the low moves right across South Dakota. But, we'd still catch the wrap around into the weekend either way.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at KABR/KPIR/KMBG terminals through today into tonight. Although, MVFR cigs will be possible at KATY after sunrise through about midday. Also, the potential to see brief MVFR cigs at KABR during the early-mid morning will have to be monitored. Northerly winds will remain gusty throughout this forecast cycle with speeds reaching up to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to diminish by late in the day into tonight. A few rain showers will be possible at KMBG through the predawn hours today. Light snow showers may enter the KPIR terminal area late in this forecast period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.