textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through Saturday.

- Pattern change developing during the weekend leading to cooler temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The front is slowly moving across the James valley and will eventually traverse the rest of the CWA by daylight. Cold advection is rather weak, and BUFKIT profiles indicate there will be an extremely shallow inversion to start the day, with temperatures in the 50s. Thus, with favorable mixing on a west/northwest wind, it not being very cold and the inversion will mix out rapidly... we shall see temperatures jump quickly through the 60s into the 70s. While we did overachieve in comparison to the NBM yesterday, this is a different regime and as such should not be a benchmark on how well the NBM is doing going forwards. Same with dewpoints, though upstream we're seeing 30s replace the 50s in place so there is some dry advection. Mixed winds only top out around 15 to 20kts, with NBM winds around 15 to 25mph. Could be close to Red Flag up in Corson/Dewey so will need to be monitored.

Mild for mid week, with light northerly flow Wednesday and a shift to southerly for Thursday. Focus shifts to the pattern change coming this weekend/next week as a broad upper low cuts off over the western CONUS. This initially amplifies the ridge overhead with well above normal (15 to 20F) temperatures Saturday. Deterministic GFS/EC/Canadian bring the core of warmest 850mb air, which is just just just barely 2 standard deviations above climo, Friday night, meaning some uncertainty on when the hotter air hits. NBM 25th-75th percentile range runs some 7 to 10 degrees Friday and 3 to 7 degrees Saturday. Still some difference on when frontal passage flips the script as well and temperatures drop to seasonal if not slightly below normal (Monday NBM forecast 5 to 10 below normal). Sundays 25th-75th range for highs jumps to 15 to 23 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period, with low level wind shear initially at ATY until 09Z with winds just above the surface near 35kts out of a more westerly direction.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.