textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing dense fog and freezing fog may improve some through early this evening, before returning overnight and creating another round of visibility at or below a quarter mile. A dense fog advisory is in place. Freezing fog overnight could cause slippery, icy roads.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota).

- Strong northwest winds and bitterly cold temperatures are expected Saturday evening through Sunday. Sustained winds in excess of 30 mph and gusts in excess of 45 mph are a concern.

- High temperatures to start 2026 off may not get above 0F degrees for some parts of South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 833 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

There are some light showers along a front to the west of Aberdeen, with temperatures right around the freezing mark, so there could be a little ice accumulations.

Swapped some counties in and out of the dense fog advisory. North central South Dakota has been relatively fog free, and while CAMS continue to support redevelopment, we're not seeing anything upstream that warrants the dense fog moniker. Added Spink county with the fog leeching south into Millette/Redfield.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

At 2 PM CST, under a cloudy sky and areas of fog, temperatures have been warming into the 30s and 40s, with readings into the 50s and low 60s across south central South Dakota. Areas of fog, some of it dense, have been slow to burn off today, with much of the area covered by the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory still showing rather poor visibility, per regional webcams. Winds are generally out of the south around 10 to 15 mph. Over northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota, south winds were a bit stronger around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

A warm front over the CWA is still working its way northeast, so despite the broken/overcast skies, expecting surface temperatures to continue to slowly warm into early this evening. A cold front will pass through the region overnight, turning these southerly winds around to the north-northwest and bringing in a little bit of low level CAA (probably shallow enough, but strong enough to act as a low level thermal inversion re-inforcer). This will end up enhancing more fog/stratus potential later tonight. There is also a shortwave moving up into the region, that will produce a low probability (less than 30 percent) chance of very light rain/sprinkles from late this afternoon through late this evening (can already see a pocket of rain returns on radar throughout Stanley/Jones Counties).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

While the flow pattern aloft will be taking on a negative PNA pattern (upper trof over the western CONUS/upper ridge over the east) heading into this weekend, low level WAA persists long enough to make Saturday one last warm day. As this upper trof works east across the CONUS over the weekend, it will drag a strong cold front through the CWA starting Saturday late afternoon/early evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. Various models and their ensembles are still pointing to over 20 degrees Celsius of cooling happening at 925hpa between 00Z Sunday and 18Z Sunday. Pretty strong low level CAA. There is also a another pretty strong pressure rise bubble headed this way Saturday night. Suspect this will probably be the next potential round of strong northwest winds (Saturday evening through Sunday) in excess of 30 mph sustained and gusts in excess of 45 mph. The rest of the 7-day forecast is a return to a positive PNA upper flow pattern, with low level WAA and CAA patterns taking turns over this CWA. By New Year's Day 2026, there is a low probability (15-25%) taking shape for a cold surge coming down into this region to glance the eastern half to two-thirds of this CWA with arctic air cold enough to make high temperatures struggle to reach the single digits above zero!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for KMBG/KPIR are expected to deteriorate as low clouds and fog move in behind a front. For KABR/KATY, with fog already set in, little improvement is expected until tomorrow.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for SDZ005>008-010-011- 019>023.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for SDZ018.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.