textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Southerly winds gusting between 30-40 mph are in place today, with the strongest winds located over northeastern South Dakota. Strong winds will continue over that area through this evening and into tonight.

- A cold front will move through the region tonight through early Saturday morning. Winds behind will turn northwesterly and increase, with gusts up to 50 miles per hour possible over parts of central and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory is in effect for that area from late tonight through Saturday morning.

- Widespread rain is expected to move into the region beginning Sunday and continuing into Tuesday. Chances to see a quarter of an inch of rain through that period range from 30% along the ND/SD border to 80% over south central SD.

UPDATE

Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Widespread southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour are in place this afternoon, with the strongest located over parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. These winds are expected to persist through the afternoon before slowly diminishing this evening. The strong winds combine with abnormally warm temperatures (highs in the 70s to 80, approaching daily records) to create widespread elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. High Grassland Fire Danger is in place across the entire forecast area, with some pockets of Very High Grassland Fire Danger over the parts of northeastern South Dakota where winds are expected to be the strongest.

A low pressure center to the north will drag a cold front across the forecast area early Saturday. Along this front, the next round of showers to weak thunderstorms will develop. Central South Dakota may see these showers during the early morning hours before the rain chances transition to northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota after sunrise. Rain rates are generally expected to be light, and only a couple hundredths of accumulation at most are expected.

Post-frontal winds turn from southerly to northwesterly and increase overnight tonight and into early Saturday morning. Under the strong cold air advection regime, gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour (Wind Advisory criteria) will be possible over parts of central and north central South Dakota. There is somewhat of a sharp difference in terms of guidance on this issue. The HREF and REFS seem to be less than impressed by the setup, and show only a patchy 10-30% chance for wind gusts to reach 45 miles per hour or better. The NBM on the other hand, shows a fairly widespread 30-60% chance over that same area. Have decided to err on the side of caution given the strength of the cold air advection behind the front, and a Wind Advisory is in effect late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to decrease through the day, which is why the Advisory will expire at 15Z Saturday morning. During that same time frame, there is some potential for strong downslope winds along the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau out ahead of the front. Localized gusts may top out upwards of 40 miles per hour, but confidence is a bit lower in that area, and therefore no advisory has been issued for that area at this time.

Temperatures behind the cold front are set to cool back down closer to normal. 850mb temperatures drop about 15 degrees Celsius behind the front, settling in the +2-5 degree range. These values are just below the median for this time of the year. As a result, expect near- normal highs in the upper 40s to 50s for the foreseeable future.

An upper-level low will move up into the region, bringing the next chances for precipitation beginning on Sunday. Latest NBM probabilities indicate that the chances of seeing a quarter of an inch through Tuesday morning ranges from 30-80%, increasing from north to south. There is also some indication that overnight lows (as well as temperatures through the whole profile) being sub- freezing may support some flurries over parts of north central and/or northeastern South Dakota. However, no snowfall accumulation would be expected out of any snow that does manage to reach the surface. The presence of cloud cover may also limit radiational cooling through the night, keeping temperatures on the warmer side, which would be enough to shut down the prospective flurries.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is also expected to affect KABR/KATY this evening/tonight, with a brief period of this also in KMBG. Southerly winds this evening will gradually switch to the northwest from west to east across the region tonight into Saturday morning. Gusts from northwest winds later tonight across KPIR/KMBG are forecast to range from 30 to 40 kts. Will also be watching -SHRA potential tonight into Saturday morning, with best chances over KATY region where PROB30 was inserted. There is some potential these showers develop as far west as KPIR/KABR, but low confidence as of now so no mention of -SHRA at these sites. Will amend if needed. All that said, don't expect much in the way of VSBY reduction from any -SHRA, and CIGs are forecast to remain VFR in any -SHRA as well.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for SDZ003-015-033-045. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ004-005- 009-010-016-034-035-048. MN...None.