textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect this morning across portions of north central and northeast SD into west central MN until 10 AM CST. Freezing fog could create slick road conditions.

- Above normal high temperatures are expected today, Sunday and Monday, with readings closer to or just a few degrees below normal Friday into Saturday and again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

- There is a 40-75% chance of precipitation occurring from late tonight through Friday night, with much of the precipitation falling as rain tonight into Friday. A moving corridor of wintry mix precipitation (freezing rain, sleet and snow) is expected to chase the rain eastward into Minnesota Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 128 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

With southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph, temperatures approaching 70 degrees relative humidity values of 30 to 40 percent, and dry fuels, grassland fire danger will reach the very high category across south central SD this afternoon. Any fires that start will spread quickly and be hard to contain. Conditions are expected to improve tonight when the rain moves into the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

As of 1 AM CST, there is a dense fog advisory in effect for portions of northern SD. Conditions are expected to improve through the morning hours. Currently, temperatures are in the 20s to low 30s with winds out of the south between 5 and 15 mph. Highs today will be 20-25 degrees above average, in the mid 50s and 60s, potentially reaching 70 degrees in south central SD.

The cold front from the incoming low will stall over southern ND/northern SD today before moving northeast to southwest across the area this evening into Friday morning. The low will then move northeast across northern NE/eastern SD/western MN during the day Friday.

Rain showers will begin this evening and last through most of the overnight/early morning hours. This is when most of the QPF will fall. Precip type changes over to a line of freezing rain between the Missouri and James valleys a couple hours before sunrise. This line will then move east during the day, filling in as snow behind as the boundary moves east. This line does move fairly quickly, which will help keep ice accumulation to a couple hundredths of an inch across the eastern half of the CWA. The chance of more than a hundredth of an inch of flat ice accumulation is generally 10-30% with a bullseye of 40-50% over and around the Prairie Coteau. The chance of more than a tenth of an inch is around 10% in this same area. QPF forecasts have reduced, and with a bit more ice forecast than previous forecasts, the snowfall forecast has come down. The chance for more than 2 inches is still between 20 and 40% but this is from Friday morning on with highest chances over south central SD instead of northeastern SD. The uncertainty in this forecast is with how quickly the layer above the surface cools. If it cools faster than forecast, the transition from freezing rain to snow would be faster, leading to higher snow accumulations and lower ice accumulations.

Models are still showing sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph. With how close temperatures will be to freezing, expected wind, current snow pack (not all that much), and snowfall forecast, blowing and drifting snow may cause brief reductions in visibility. With potential icy roads, this could create hazardous driving conditions. A winter headline may be necessary if the storm continues on a similar track.

Temperatures are expected to recover quickly after this low moves through. Sunday is expected to be the warmest, with highs 15 to 25 degrees above average. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will return us to more normal temperatures and also bring back precipitation chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Sub-VFR conditions are already setting in at KABR/KMBG and this is where they likely will remain into the first half of the overnight. KATY could see sub-VFR conditions but not until after about 09Z. KPIR will remain under VFR conditions this entire TAF cycle. VFR conditions are expected to return to KABR/KATY/KMBG during the late morning hours closer to 16Z or later.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for SDZ003>011-016-017-021.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ039-046.