textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow accumulations of an inch or less expected along and southwest of a line from McIntosh to Watertown today. However, locally higher snowfall amounts of 2 to 3+ inches could be possible within any narrow band or bands of snow that may develop. Southwest of Pierre, temperatures will remain warm enough to support rain or a mix of rain and snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 940 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Band of snow appears to be setting up from Corson/Dewey counties, southeast towards the KHON area. Made some minor adjustments to PoP grids to account for this, and adjusted up QPF just a couple/few hundredths to get totals closer to a half inch or inch. Web cams are not revealing much in the way of accumulations thus far. Still cannot rule out some isolated areas of 1"+ within this band of snow. Otherwise, no big changes to the forecast for today. Did increase sky cover a bit where satellite shows the stratus field.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

As of midnight, the high pressure system that was over northern ND/Canadian border will continue to track southeastward with much of far northeastern SD/western MN on the western side of this high by this afternoon through this evening, which potentially should keep this area dry today from any snow. Models for the most part indicate that by 12Z the low will center itself over WY/SD/NE border and will track southeast over Nebraska through this evening. Between this low and high is where a swath of snow, oriented northwest to southeast, is expected along the gradient. Any shift in the track of the low or high will affect the snowfall forecast.

There still is a bit of model variability on exact track of this band or bands of snow this morning through late this afternoon. For example, NAM12/NAM Nest are the quickest and indicate a band or bands of light snow entering over north central SD between ~12-14Z where HI Res ARW/FV3 models show more over Dewey/Stanley/Sully where it will track southeastward through through Hyde/Hand area. HRRR/RAP shows a couple bands of snow, one moving across central SD but also one a bit further north and northeast (which potentially runs into the high). So HREF grand ensemble/NBM takes this all into consideration and keeps the band(s)of snow broad brushed, tracking mainly (highest pops of 40-60%) from north central through east central SD. Outside of this band, pops dramatically drop off. So grids will most likely need to be adjusted once the snow enters the CWA and we can figure out its exact track and increase pops if needed with any heavier band. Also, with temperatures warming up above freezing over south central SD (southwest of Pierre), ptype will transition from snow to rain late morning or so, will helps keeps snow totals down. HREF 3hr FRAM does highlight the potential for light freezing rain midday through early afternoon during this transitional period over south central SD with NBM not as impressed.

QPF amounts will be overall light, under 0.10" for locations that will receive the precip, with HREF probability of QPF>0.10" highest from Pierre, southeastward through Gann Valley at 50%. 90th percentile would be up to 0.25", with this bulk over south central SD (with a few streamers over north central SD). Both HREF/NBM indicate snowfall amounts at an inch or less with 90th percentile between 1-2" within a narrow band(s) from Corson southeast through Clark County and southward as a narrow band of FGEN sets up over this area midday/afternoon, per GFS/EC. It seems to be pretty weak over north central with the "strongest" of it right along I90 and southward through FSD. Even running Max potential is 2-3 inches if we perhaps get better Fgen coinciding with the snowfall. The snowband probability of snowfall>0.05"/hr keeps a potential heavier band forming southeast of the CWA this afternoon, where there is better FGEN forcing aloft, however, locations southeast of PIR could still be clipped being on the southwest quadrant of better forcing (which is indicated by the 90th/Max percentile. Winds will not be an issue with this system with gusts of 15-25 mph west of the James River, east of here will remain light due to the high.

Otherwise, quite weather expected this evening through Friday with temps in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be breezy Thursday over central SD with gusts up to 35 to maybe 40 mph west of the James River Our next chance of snow (40-65%) will be Friday evening through Saturday as another low will track across Canada with its arctic cold front passing over the Northern Plains. Highs will go from the 40 and 50s Friday to the teens and 20s on Saturday. Warmer air is forecast to move back next week gradually increasing temps back into the 40s/50s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs, along with a band of -SN/SN will move moving eastward across the region today, least likely affecting KPIR. Any precipitation looks to be east of KMBG at the start of the TAF period, but KABR/KATY may see some -SN. Lowest confidence at KABR so left mention out for the time being, but did add a PROB30 for KATY. Conditions are forecast to trend widespread VFR later this evening and through the latter half of the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.