textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Much above normal high temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees on Sunday, with record high in jeopardy.

- High to very high grassland fire danger on Sunday across central SD.

- Two separate system will bring precipitation potential Monday night through Tuesday night. Probability for receiving an inch or greater snowfall for both systems combined is 30-40 percent across northern SD.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Snow cover across central SD has pretty much vanished thanks to the warmer air mass moving in, mixing winds, and the intensifying early March sun angle. Rather impressive warm air advection kicking in this afternoon and persists overnight and through the day Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, 925mb temps should be around +15C to +20C across the CWA. Westerly mixing winds stay in place overnight, generally in the 10 to 20 mph range, but likely a tad weaker in valley areas and strongest on higher elevations in the CWA. The mixing overnight should keep temps in the 30s for many areas, but any remaining snow cover areas in the east, as well as valley areas could sneak into the upper 20s. On Sunday, with the mixing winds and warm air aloft, look for highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees for most areas. These readings will put record highs in jeopardy for Sunday.

Fire danger will become an issue on Sunday with westerly winds gusting from 30 to 40 mph. Min RH values are forecast to be between 25 and 30 percent for much of central SD. These factors will bring the grassland fire danger into the VERY HIGH category. Speaking of winds, we do flirt with advisory levels across northern SD. Current forecast values are somewhat marginal, so will punt to the next shift to take a closer look. Could see a scenario where the Leola Hills region westward to Corson county gets into some low-end criteria (sustained 30mph/gusts 45mph), but will again wait another forecast cycle to get a better idea of potential.

Cold front drops south through the area Sunday night, bringing cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s for Monday. Will also be watching a system sliding eastward across the region Monday night into Tuesday, then another system on its heels for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Right now, the NBM probability for receiving greater than an inch (both systems combined) is around 30-40 percent across northern SD.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be an issue during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning and inserted mention of this.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.