textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for light rain are possible today (20-40%) and Thursday (15-30%). Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but no severe weather is anticipated.

- High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected through the work week, with highs in the 50s. Weekend highs will increase slightly into the 60s.

UPDATE

Issued at 904 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Light spotty showers have developed across much of southeastern ND, moving to our area. Little to no accumulation has been reported from these higher based showers. We'll continue to monitor the latest trends, and may need to increase the chance of precipitation over northeastern SD and west central MN late this morning. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Mainly clear skies and calm winds this morning under the influence of a high pressure center to the south. While guidance is somewhat inconsistent, conditions appear somewhat favorable for some patchy fog development early this morning. Main area that would see development appears to be in the James River Valley around 12Z. At this time confidence is low on any widespread development of low visibilities, but can't rule out some patchy areas of visibility below 3 miles at times. Any fog that does develop should dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise when winds pick up slightly.

Right entrance region of an upper-level trough will sit over the Northern Plains for the next couple of days, leading to some chances for rain showers to develop both today and Thursday afternoon under very similar setups both days. Jet streaks aloft riding down into the trough will provide divergence aloft, with steep low-level lapse rates aiding in convective development. Model soundings do show some potential for a capping inversion aloft (above the 700-600mb saturated layer) that may limit the growth of the potential developing showers. However the marginal MUCAPE (<250 J/kg both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, but a touch greater today) will allow for some scattered thunderstorm development. However, not expecting severe weather either day.

While the trough is present overhead, below normal temperatures will continue, with highs in the 50s expected through Friday. By the weekend, the trough is expected to drift east and sit over the eastern CONUS, but height rises (up to roughly 560-564 dam at 500mb) will sit near median values for early May. Naturally, this translates to near-normal to slightly above normal surface temperatures. This broad pattern looks set to continue into early next week, where the return of some jet streak supported showers are possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region (mainly central and north central South Dakota) from roughly mid-day today through late this evening, so PROB30s continue in the KPIR and KMBG TAFs. The environmental set-up today supports the potential for small hail (GS) and convective wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph within the strongest convective cells, in addition to brief vsby drops into the MVFR category. Currently, the KABR and KATY terminals appear to be on the fringe of where today's activity could develop. So, for the moment, those two TAFs remain dry.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.