textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Around a 25 to 50 percent chance of light rain showers heading into early Saturday morning mainly over the Glacial Lakes region, with just a few hundredths of precipitation potential. 20- 30% chance of light rain showers Saturday night (isolated to scattered coverage).

- Well above normal temperatures Sunday, highs in the 70s to low 80s (15 to 25 above normal). West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Grassland Fire Danger increases to High/Very High category both Saturday and Sunday.

- Potentially active period of precipitation chances off and on from Monday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny, and temperatures are warming through the 40s into the 50s. Winds have settled in from the south generally around 5 to 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts; lightest winds over toward the South Dakota/Minnesota border while strongest winds are along/west of the Missouri River valley.

Over the next 24 hours, low level jet southerlies are going to transport Gulf moisture up into the region. This is expected to translate into the blossoming of an expansive area of low stratus over the central/northern plains on Saturday. The western edge of the low cloud field may end up settling down along/near the ABR and UNR CWA borders Saturday afternoon. While this moisture surge is happening, the steering winds aloft will eventually switch around to southwesterly on Saturday, leaving the CWA under some form of westerly or southwesterly flow for the rest of the forecast period. Models/ensembles depict a "wave train" pattern developing by early next week, continuing through Friday of next week. So, plenty of precipitation potential throughout the 7-day. As expected, there is not an ensemble-powered 12-hour PoP block that doesn't have measurable PoPs in it between tonight and Friday of next week. Right now, it seems the models imply mid/upper level shortwave passages about once every 36 to 48 hours, starting Sunday night. Over these first 36 hours of the forecast, models/ensembles are currently still latching on to some isolated/scattered shower potential late tonight through Saturday late morning mainly east of a line from Redfield to Sisseton. Beyond that, ensembles and CAMs are basically dry for the rest of Saturday through Sunday.

The clouds (be they stratus or otherwise) that are expected to develop on Saturday will somewhat hamper the warm-up being advertised for Saturday. As low level winds become more westerly on Sunday, low clouds over the CWA are expected to end, and efficient mixing westerly PBL winds should aide sunshine to produce high temperatures in the 70s, to perhaps 80s for some locations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through 12Z Saturday. KPIR may end up being the only terminal to remain VFR to the end of the TAF valid period on Saturday. It's really just going to depend on where/when the low stratus develops Saturday morning. KABR/KATY (and possibly KMBG) should be under these low clouds by 18Z Saturday and are to remain so through the end of Saturday. Winds will be gradually gaining strength, from a southerly direction, through the rest of today and all of tonight. Expect wind speeds overnight into Saturday to ramp up to 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. Also, mainly between 12Z and 18Z Saturday, there are some low probability chances of light rain showers over the KATY terminal; covered for the time being with a couple of PROB30 groups.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Monitoring fire weather conditions over the weekend, due to strong southerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Saturday and westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Sunday. Higher relative humidity and cloud cover on Saturday east of the Missouri River valley will help to keep the Grassland Fire Danger index from getting out of hand, but along/west of the Missouri River valley on Saturday, elevated fire concerns may happen for a couple of hours late in the day. Similarly, on Sunday, a drying/warming westerly component wind (not as strong as Saturday), including frequent gusts 25-30mph, in tandem with afternoon relative humidity potentially falling to 20-25 percent will place western/southwestern fire weather zones rather close to Red Flag conditions. Also, in between potential rounds of rain this upcoming week, there are a few days where relative humidity could fall to or below 25 percent. So, an eye is being kept on that, as well.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.