textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system brings strong winds to the area late this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts will mainly range from 50 to 60 mph range with stronger gusts in the wake of a cold front with magnitudes ranging from 65-80 mph A High Wind Warning has been issued for all of central/north central and northeast SD as well as western MN.

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions in combination with the very strong winds will raise the Grassland Fire Danger into the Very High to Extreme category for late this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in in effect until mid evening tonight.

- A Colorado Low will bring snow for the weekend. The probability of exceeding 6 inches of snowfall has increased to 50 to 80% across the forecast area. Winds of 30 to 40 mph will lead to blowing/drifting snow.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some 15 to 25 degrees below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A plethora of cloud cover and scattered showers have been commonplace across the CWA. The clipper like low pressure system is currently poised and centered near Minot, ND with a warm front extending southeast into central SD and a cold front draped west- southwest from the low across southwest ND into southeast MT. These frontal boundaries will continue to track east-southeast across this forecast area the remainder of this afternoon as the low is progged to shift into eastern ND and northern MN this evening. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms will be possible through late this afternoon and early evening. Weak instability developing out ahead of the cold front may be enough to generate a few thunderstorms or at the very least some lightning and claps of thunder and some brief heavier showers. SPC continues to highlight north central and northeast SD and west central MN for a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Confidence in strong winds associated with any convection remain low just for the fact that the synoptic setup is already going to be generating wind gusts in excess of 60 kts. The very strong winds will ultimately be the main concern later today into tonight. Sfc obs across western SD/ND already have seen wind gust range between 60-80+ mph. 1/2 KM wind progs continue to generate a corridor of 50-65 kt winds across a good portion of the forecast area from about mid-late afternoon across central SD to early this evening through the first half of the overnight hours across northeast SD and west central MN. The main message in all of this is that damaging winds will be possible in this forecast area late this afternoon into tonight. A High Wind Warning remains in effect until late tonight for central SD and until early Friday morning from the James Valley and points east.

Sfc high pressure will begin to build into the forecast area on Friday. Breezy northwest winds will diminish during the morning hours, more noticeably on the eastern side of our CWA where wind gusts could still range between 25-35 mph through the first half of the morning hours. Cold air advection will drive in a cooler, below normal air mass with daytime temperatures expected to hold in the 30s. After a relatively quiet day weather-wise, conditions will start to deteriorate across central SD as early as late afternoon/early evening Friday as the next storm system organizes to the west.

Guidance continues to indicate an anomalous low pressure system developing across the Northern High Plains early Saturday before diving southeast across the Front Range of the Rockies and into portions of the Northern and Central Plains by Saturday night into Sunday. Still some things to iron out in terms of timing and track of the this low pressure system. Both deterministic and ensemble members have a general idea of this system tracking southeast across WY/NE on Saturday night and early Sunday and then hooking back toward the northeast across IA/MO and into IL and the western Great Lakes by Sunday night into early Monday. Probabilities of seeing at least 6 inches or more of snow are highest basically across the central portion of the forecast area. There's a 60-80 percent chance of this occurring from central SD into northeast/east-central SD and west central MN. Lower probs exist on our far northern fringe of zones and far southern fringe of zones. Wind speeds associated with this system are expected to range at least as high as 30-40 mph which will potentially lead to blizzard like conditions are a good portion of this forecast area. This system will pull away and wind down by Sunday night for most of this CWA. Then cold air advection takes hold and drives a much colder and below normal air mass into the region. With a fresh blanket of snow, temperatures should not have any issues reaching the single digits above and below zero by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Long range outlooks do indicate though that a warming trend is anticipated by the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will be the general rule at all terminals through this TAF cycle, aside from the time periods where rain shower activity will be moving through the area this afternoon into early this evening. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in light to moderate rain showers. MVFR cigs will be more probable at KATY late this evening through early Friday morning as "wrap-around" cloud cover overtakes northeast SD from a departing clipper low across northern MN.

Strong west to northwest winds will be the main concern at all terminals this afternoon into tonight. Winds just off the deck will be strong enough to produce low level wind shear from mid afternoon through early this evening at KMBG/KABR/KATY TAF sites. Sfc wind speeds will exceed 35-40 knots and gusts will exceed 60 knots late this afternoon at KPIR/KMBG and during the first half of the evening at KABR/KATY. Winds will noticeably diminish toward the end of this forecast period or mid to late morning Friday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ006-018.

MN...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for MNZ039-046.