textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation will push north and east this afternoon and evening as a storm system pulls out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains. This system will exit early Tuesday morning.

- Snow will mix in with the rain later today into tonight across parts of central SD. Minor accumulations (up to an inch) will be possible, especially on grassy surfaces.

UPDATE

Issued at 854 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Low pressure system churning north-northeastward across the CWA has been a mix of rain and snow late this afternoon through early this evening. Between 3pm and 6pm, saw rain change to or mix with snow across much of central/north central South Dakota. Webcams and reports have indicated some areas have received a trace to as much as 0.5 inches of snow mainly west of SD Hwys 45 and 47. Locally higher amounts pushing an inch seems plausible, based on some of the radar returns seen working northward this evening. Lingering precipitation over central/north central South Dakota may evolve into some intermittent drizzle until early morning (06-07Z). WAA-forced rainfall is expected to persist over northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota until ~04-06Z, at which point, some brief drizzle could possible as well. Low clouds and patchy fog should perist into Tuesday morning before west-southwest mixing layer winds kick in and clear off the clouds; melt off any lingering snow on the ground and heat things up across, at least, central South Dakota on Tuesday. No significant changes planned to the tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Another day, another model solution for this system. Confidence in timing is high. Confidence in precip type is moderate. Confidence in snow amounts is low. The run to run consensus has settled, for the most part, on a central SD changeover to snow after 20z, mainly north of Pierre and west of the James Valley. It all hinges on temperatures and dewpoints. Bumped temps down slightly this afternoon and up slightly tonight due to cloud cover as non-diurnal trends have already been noted. There's no temperature advection to really mention as the upper trough digs into SD except maybe a wobble from 0C to -2C. Moisture will be plenty sufficient with a strong H7 low and theta-e advection, and there could be localized seeder-feeder and wet-bulbing effects that would enhance any snow. So, the ranges remain large. 25th to 75th percentiles are still in that 0-1 inch expectation, mainly on grassy surfaces with a 90th percentile of 1 to 3 inches. However, outliers like the REFS range as high as 7 inches.

Once this system exits early Tuesday, a weak front stretches northeast into central and eastern SD on Wednesday. Coupled with some shortwave energy, this feature will produce some light rain before high pressure builds in Wednesday night. Dry conditions are expected on Thursday under the high with increasing temperatures as heights rise aloft. Another low will affect the area Friday night into Saturday, bringing rain and gusty southerly winds for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsby will persist this evening into the early overnight hours while it continues to rain (KABR/KATY) or snow or rain/snow mix (KMBG/KPIR). KABR could see a little bit of snow mix in as well closer to midnight. There could even be a little bit of drizzle impacting TAF sites after the rain and snow ends. The system exits early Tuesday, but low stratus is expected to stick around in the system's wake leaving conditions IFR through the first half of Tuesday. Conditions for most TAF sites should be improving to VFR/MVFR Tuesday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.