textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through next Saturday, with high temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal Sunday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

- There is a 60% chance of winds Wednesday out of the northwest gusting greater than 45 mph for areas west of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 831 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

No significant updates needed this evening in regards to the forecast through 12Z Sunday. Made some changes to sky cover grids to account for satellite trends. May see mid-level cloudiness linger longer into the evening across eastern areas as weak mid-level vorticity/disturbances rotate through the region. In fact, there could be a few sprinkles as this moves through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Daytime heating light showers have been added to the forecast for this afternoon and we'll continue to monitor for the potential to increase them above a slight chance (15-20%).

A ridge of high pressure continues to build in from southern Alberta and northwestern MT, maxing out pressure wise over our area Sunday morning as the main area of high pressure shifts southeast across northeastern WY and western NE on Sunday. Weak disturbances will never be too far away, as the dominant 500mb low near Hudson Bay keeps a trough set up across the central U.S. through the entire forecast period. There are some hints at brief ridging in the otherwise zonal flow for day 7/Saturday. The overall result will be slightly below normal temperatures. While mostly dry conditions will continue, small disturbances in the otherwise broad trough will bring the potential for mid afternoon to early evening showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

Wednesday will be a heads-up day weather wise compared to the rest, with increased winds, cloud cover, and our highest chance of precipitation. A 500mb wave will be accompanied by a surface low to our west at 06Z Wednesday moving across central SD around 12Z and shifting to our east 18-21Z. There is a 50-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon mainly over north central to northeastern SD and west central MN. At this point the higher lapse rates and shear remain south and southwest, so while thunderstorms are possible severe weather looks limited. The probability of 45mph or higher wind gusts has increased for Wednesday, up to around 60% west of the Missouri River, and around 40% between the Missouri River and James River.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Gusty northwest surface around 25 knots will subside near/after sunset. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.