textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 40 to 80% chance of precipitation with the developing system through tonight.

- Snow accumulations are grouping into a couple of areas. One area of ongoing banded snowfall is concentrated across north central South Dakota and is expected to persist for several more hours. The other area of potential snowfall is expected to develop later this evening and spread over into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected.

- Freezing rain and sleet is also expected by early this evening, mainly across parts of the James River valley onto the Prairie Coteau further east into Minnesota, persisting into the early overnight hours before changing over to snow. Ice accumulations of a light glaze to around a tenth of an inch, with locally higher amounts possible, are expected.

- Above freezing temperatures return Saturday (Highs 40s to mid 50s). Highs Sunday 25 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances of 40-70 percent for Monday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

At 2 PM CST, skies are cloudy and temperatures are in the 20s. Winds are northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. A preliminary deformation band that formed earlier this morning across western into north central South Dakota, started producing snowfall all the way to the ground between 10 AM and 11 AM this morning and now, a bonafide deformation zone banded snow event is under way. The parent low for this is still observed down across Colorado (associated surface low has emerged and moved out to over central KS). Most webcams are not showing much more than a half inch to an inch of snow so far. But, much of the band of snow is occurring just outside of webcam purview, and based off METARS underneath the heaviest portion of the band (1/2sm to 3/4sm in snow), fully expecting this thing to end up generating a swath of 3 or more inches of snow, "with locally higher amounts possible". A short-fuseed Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for this phenomenon until 8 PM CST.

Otherwise, the models/guidance continue to tighten their focus on the rest of today's/tonight's winter weather event across mainly northeast and east central South Dakota into west central Minnesota, with slightly less snow amounts (now down to generally an inch or less) but seeing the ice accumulation amounts coming up a little bit (now up to between 0.10-0.20 inch of ice across parts of the Prairie Coteau into west central Minnesota and continuing to see the timing of all this delayed to the point that almost all of the freezing rain, sleet and snow doesn't get going across the eastern forecast zones until ~23Z or later.

No noteworthy changes showing up in models/guidance for Saturday through Friday of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A combination of snowfall and freezing rain are currently plaguing parts of central and northeast South Dakota this evening. The snowfall has been confined more west affecting the KPIR terminal, in the colder air, while in the east including the KATY terminal, there remains a warm nose just off the surface leading to a bout of freezing rain. Eventually, within the next few hours, the colder air will win out in the east and the freezing rain will transition to snow.

The light snow and low stratus has already cleared the KMBG terminal, so anticipate VFR conditions will hold tonight into tomorrow, although northerly winds will remain gusty through this evening. Sub-VFR conditions will persist at KABR/KATY/KPIR terminals tonight. MVFR cigs/vsbys will persist at KPIR through the late evening hours before returning to closer to midnight. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail at KABR/KATY into the pre- dawn and post-dawn hours Saturday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for SDZ008- 020>023.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-033.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for SDZ006-007- 011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.