textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below average. Coldest temperatures will be found east of the James Valley.

- There is a 30-60% chance of light snow over central South Dakota tonight into Friday. Up to an inch of snow is possible with this event, mainly in and west of the Missouri River valley and south of U.S. Highway 212.

- There is a 45-95% chance of mainly light snow from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Conditions warm up to above freezing heading into Saturday afternoon, potentially causing snow to change over to rain across central and north central South Dakota before ending. There is a low probability (~40% chance of 0.01 to 0.04in; ~20% chance of 0.05in or more) of freezing rain/ice accumulation over portions of central and north central South Dakota Saturday morning. Overall, the latest indications are for the highest snow totals (probabilities register highest for around an inch or less) to reside across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 922 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light snow echoes on radar trying to work down into north central SD this evening with more light snow upstream across western ND/eastern MT. Latest guidance keeps most of this activity along and west of the Missouri River overnight and brings it to an end a bit earlier than what we originally had expected. Nevertheless, only anticipate minor accumulations at best West River overnight. Overcast skies cover central SD with clearing across the James Valley and other portions of northeast SD. However, another band of low stratus continues to drift southwest into our northeast zones from southeast ND and western MN, the leading edge of a drier and colder air mass that will push into the eastern half of our forecast area overnight. Little, if any precip has been observed with it. Made some slight adjustments to PoPs and cloud cover to account for the latest trends in obs and guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

At 2 PM CST, lots of sunshine over northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. But, partly to mostly cloudy skies persist across central/north central South Dakota where snow appears to have finally ended for the afternoon. Temperatures, like yesterday, range from around 10 degrees above zero over the far eastern portion of the CWA to the low 20s over the far western/southwestern portion of the CWA. Winds are light and variable due to the surface high pressure system over the region today.

The next light snow event is slated to start ramping up across the far western/southwestern forecast zones later tonight after 00Z. Similar to last night's event, not really seeing much in the ensembles/probability datasets suggesting much more than a half inch to an inch of snow may accumulate. There will also be a cold front backdooring its way through the CWA from northeast to southwest between late this afternoon and early overnight. And the band of stratus clouds moving in with the front could end up generating some flurries across the eastern half of the CWA later this evening into the early overnight hours.

Air maybe 5-10C degrees colder at 925hpa will be sweeping down through the eastern half to two-thirds of the CWA from late tonight through Friday afternoon, so looking at high temperatures dropping back down into the single digits above to teens above zero across much of the CWA. By 00Z Saturday, low level WAA appears to be taking back over.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The period opens Saturday morning with a third light snow event in 4 days expected to be rapidly spinning up across central and north central South Dakota. There are rather low probabilities of freezing rain/sleet Saturday morning across portions of central/north central South Dakota. There is a much stronger signal for snow across the eastern half of the CWA from late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning or snow changing over to rain before ending from early Saturday morning through Saturday evening over the western half of the CWA. QPF/snow probabilities still lean toward the lower end of the measurement scale, with 0.10in of water equivalent looking do-able; generally 1-2inches of snow accumulation potential.

Still seeing a warming trend in the models/various ensemble datasets during the extended forecast period despite the frequent, but brief, back door cold fropa's forecast to happen between Sunday and Thursday. Low level WAA is supposed to continue over the CWA on Saturday, and then resume on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An MVFR layer is moving through KABR/KATY for the next few hours. A layer closer to KMBG/KPIR is right around 3kft as well. Will see some improvement in the 12-18Z timeframe.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.