textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Heightened Fire Weather threat today. Northwest winds of 25 to 40 mph during the day, with afternoon humidity down to around 20% across central/north central South Dakota, 25-35% across the northeast/western Minnesota.

- Smoke from western wildfires could move into central/north central South Dakota behind the front. Minor impacts to visibility.

UPDATE

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Made some minor adjustments earlier this morning to PoPs. Showers out ahead of an associated cold front have continued to persist across some of our southern zones...now confined to mostly south central SD and the I-90 corridor. This activity should be short lived and gone by midday. Lowered highs this afternoon a touch based on ensemble warm bias trends the last several days. With 850mb temps in the low-mid 20's Celsius, should still be able to reach the upper 80s to around 90 east to the low to mid 90s west.

Also, we'll be monitoring north central SD this afternoon and early evening for elevated fire weather concerns. Increasing northwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph combined with temps in the low 90s and a drop in RH values down close to 20 percent this afternoon and the drying fuels prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for our north central SD zones this afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the mid 70s with winds out of the south. There are a couple small cells still making their way northwest to southeast across central and northeast SD, they are not expected to be severe. Highs today will be a little cooler, generally in the low to mid 90s with little difference in heat index values. Also today, a plume of smoke is expected to move in both aloft and at the surface. This will cause some hazy skies and slight reductions in visibility at the surface. Winds across northern SD today are expected to gust between 30 and 40 mph out of the north to northwest. These winds, combined with dry fuels and relative humidity values across north central SD dropping to around 20% this afternoon will drive enhanced grassland fire danger concerns. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of north central SD from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT.

Temperatures for the rest of the week will be rather significantly cooler, with highs in the 80s through Thursday for areas west river and through Friday for areas east of the Missouri River. This coming weekend again looks to be significantly above normal with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. Humidity at this time does not look to be significant enough to raise heat index values to advisory criteria, but this could change as we get closer. High pressure moves in Tuesday night, moving southeast across the area Wednesday. Behind the high, a low moves into eastern Colorado bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the western forecast area Thursday. Its hard to say if any storms will be severe at this time. As mentioned, heat returns Friday through the weekend and this looks to cut off our chances for storms for the most part.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this forecast cycle. Gusty northwest winds will kick in this afternoon and remain breezy through tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-016. MN...None.