textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon and evening over portions of central and north central South Dakota due to dry fuels and 20 to 35 mph north winds, including gusts up to 45 mph.

- Storms may develop along a cold front moving over the area late this afternoon into tonight. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for parts of northeastern and central South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) clips part of far northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. With these storms, the main severe threats will be hail of one inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour. Additionally, the development of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- An area of near surface smoke is expected to sweep through the region today behind the cold frontal passage. Concentrations of smoke may be high enough to be able to smell smoke in the air and reduce visibilities. Air quality is expected to drop through the day and tonight mainly west of the Missouri River. Those with breathing sensitivities should plan accordingly.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Made some updates to PoPs for today to account for the elevated WAA-forced showers/thunderstorms developing over the CWA this morning. No other changes planned at this time to the today period. Red Flag Warning continues as 20 to 30 mph northerly winds develop today, post-cold frontal. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A cold front is currently sitting over ND and western SD and it will be moving southeast through the day. In front of the cold front, southerly winds over parts of south central and northeastern SD will be picking up through the morning into the afternoon, with wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible. There is also a 15-35% chance for some scattered showers and storms to develop in ND during the morning that could move along the SD border as well as into portions of northern SD counties. Temperatures today should be around normal for this time of the year, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures could be tampered by the morning shower/storm chances as well as with the wildfire smoke moving in. Wildfire smoke will continue to move over SD aloft today into Tuesday, creating hazy skies. The southerly winds will help to keep a majority of this smoke aloft. However, once the cold front move through, the north northwesterly wind will be pushing more smoke in and some of that will likely get to the surface. This will mainly be over areas west of the Missouri River today, but potentially to the east later. This smoke could cause a slight reduction in visibilities and be irritating to those who are sensitive. The winds over central SD will be picking up in the afternoon behind the cold front, with the gusts getting up to 45+ mph in some places during the afternoon. The minimum humidity during the afternoon will be dropping down between 25 to 35% over portions of central SD, with the lowest over areas west of the Missouri River. While these humidity values don't drop into and below red flag criteria, below 20%, the strong winds as well as drier fuel conditions over this area has lead to the continuation of a red flag warning today.

The southerly winds will continue to push warm, humid air up into portions of central and northeastern SD today, which will help to prime the environment for storms to develop as the front continues to move southeast late this afternoon into tonight. Both the NAM and the RAP are showing CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg over central and northeastern SD today, with the highest values over north central SD along the front during the late afternoon to help with storm development. The models are also showing stronger CIN values over the area, which could inhibit the development of storms, causing variation in the models as to how widespread storm development is and when storms start. If storms do develop, there looks to be lapse rates of 7-8 C/km as well as strong bulk shear values, which could help the storms to become severe with strong wind gusts and large hail. The strongest shear values will be behind the front, which could limit the shear's influence on storms unless there are some storms that develop or linger behind the frontal passage. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for the afternoon/evening storms to become severe over portions of northeastern SD and west central MN and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over portions of south central and the rest of northeastern SD. These storms will have the primary threat for wind gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Additionally, the development of a tornado or two over far northeastern SD and west central MN cannot be ruled out. Most of the storms should move out of central and northeastern SD during the late evening into the early overnight hours as the front move southeast out of the area. However, there could be some lingering scattered showers Tuesday morning over south central SD depending on how fast the front moves.

Colder air will be pushing in behind the cold front and will help to cool temperatures over central and northeastern SD about 5 to 15 degrees colder than normal for this time of the year. High temperatures will be in the 70s with lows dropping into the 50s. A high surface pressure looks to move in over central and northeastern SD Tuesday and for a few days, which will help to keep the chance for precipitation low. Temperatures do start to warm slightly Wednesday and Thursday to be around normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) conditions are expected to remain in place across the region through mid morning. Areas of SHRA/TSRA across northern SD this morning are generally forecast to stay away from KMBG/KABR terminals, but will continue to monitor radar trends. Late this afternoon and evening, TSRA are possible in the KATY region and have inserted PROB30 to cover this. MVFR/IFR VSBY would be possible in any heavier downpours. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds this morning will gradually switch to the north throughout the day as a cold front moves across the region.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-015-016-033-034-045. MN...None.