textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms moving into central SD late this afternoon into early evening. Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, with main threat being strong wind gusts from 60 to 75 mph.

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility at times across the region through Tuesday evening.

- Less intense heat but temperatures still 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Have some smoke aloft over the region as shown by CIRA Geocolor imagery. Not much impact at the surface though, as much of the region is P6SM visibility. Latest run of HRRR-smoke continues to show moderate concentrations of smoke aloft and at the surface through Tuesday evening, so continued mention of it in the grids/forecast.

Temperatures this afternoon are warming through the upper 80s to upper 90s. Latest look at heat indices shows everyone under 100 degrees, which was expected. Although, there will likely be a few areas at 100 or even a couple ticks above by later this afternoon. Areal coverage won't be widespread enough to warrant any headlines. Still a couple more days of the widespread 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, before a slight cooldown to where more 80s show up for highs by the last half of the week.

Main concern for later this afternoon into early evening is the increasing coverage of showers/storms expected across western SD and eventually into central SD. Radars upstream show activity moving out of northeast WY/southeast MT and into far western SD. CAMs continue to show development over the next few hours, especially the HRRR. Opted to blend in some ECAM feel to PoPs this evening/tonight to increase things just a little above that of NBM - better matching HRRR trends. DCAPE values look to be around 1500 J/KG once again, so strong wind gusts/outflows is the primary threat, with gusts perhaps up to 70-75 mph.

Latest run of PoPs in the extended period shows precipitation chances as high as 60-80 percent for Thursday/Thursday night. GEFS/ENS/GEPS mean MSLP and mean 10m wind speeds/direction all show a rather well defined surface boundary/trough moving across the CWA during that time. ENS/GEPS mean dewpoints Thursday out ahead of the frontal boundary show readings up around 70 degrees with PWATS on the order of 1.80in to 1.90in. So, it would be safe to say we likely develop some instability out ahead of the surface trough. ML severe potential output showing some lower end probabilities for Thursday into Thursday night. 75th percentile 24-hr precipitation off the Grand Ensemble showing as much as 0.75in rainfall or higher.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low concentration wildfire smoke (FU) at the surface this afternoon, although most VSBY across the region is P6SM as of 18Z, so will continue with this trend until the evening when VSBY may drop to around 6SM or lower. Also, last evening the smoke aloft was think enough to generate a ceiling around 4500ft at times, so opted to include mention of this in the TAFs as well as we continue to be affected by smoke aloft through the forecast period.

Will also be watching potential for TSRA across central SD by early evening. Used PROB30 to handle this for the time being, but could go TEMPO by later this afternoon as coverage may be great enough to do this. Stronger storms are possible, with strong surface wind gusts over 50 knots possible.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.