textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for rain return today, with the best chances coming this evening. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather is in place. Hail of one inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main severe hazards.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across north central SD and a Marginal Risk for areas west of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills is in place for storms developing Saturday evening. Hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 miles per hour are the main severe threats.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with highs in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 920 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

With some small showers popping up over central South Dakota this morning, some adjustment to the forecast precip chances have been made for the rest of the morning hours and into the afternoon. At the time of this writing (~1430Z) the main cluster of rain showers remains just across the border into North Dakota. Occasional pulses of lightning have been observed via satellite with this system. Hi-res model guidance does not seem to have a great handle on this storm currently, but the expectation over the next few hours is that this system will maintain its current strength as it tracks eastward to southeastward this morning. The southern extent of these showers will likely sneak across the border, particularly as it moves closer to northeastern South Dakota. No severe weather is expected through the afternoon, and a more in-depth look at the severe threat this evening will come with the discussion in the main forecast package later today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the mid 50s to low 60s with light winds generally out of the east to southeast. Low pressure develops off the Rockies today bringing precipitation chances all day and a chance for severe weather this evening, 40- 70%. There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather with these storms. Main hazards are 1 inch hail and 60-70 mph wind gusts. PWATs over the area are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range which could also result in brief heavy rainfall. CAMs are in pretty much 2 camps as to when and where the majority of the storms will take place. The first develops in south central SD at around 7 PM CDT and intensifies as it moves east across the southern portion of the CWA. The second moves into the area out of ND closer to midnight CDT, moves east and intensifies into northeast SD. Both camps have storms out of the area by sunrise Saturday morning. There is also a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of north central SD and a Marginal risk for areas west of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills Saturday as the low moves off the Rockies. Following this, low level precipitation chances remain in place most days as a series of low pressure systems move across southern Canada.

Temperatures through the period remain around to slightly above average. Some light elevated smoke will move into the area today, resulting in hazy skies. Winds across south central SD will gust 25- 30 mph and these look to be the highest winds through the 7-day. We could begin to see some elevated fire danger next work week if we don't get much rain out of these storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern today are showers and storms moving across the area. As of 17Z, afternoon showers appear to be fairly weak and are scattered in nature, creating some minor visibility reductions at worst. An occasional pulse of lightning was observed in these showers earlier this morning, but over the hour no lightning has occurred. This evening, another round of showers and storms will move into the forecast area from the west. These storms will be much more organized than the ongoing system, and may be severe. Storms are expected to track into central and north central South Dakota during the evening time frame, continuing through northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota during the overnight period. Due to some lingering uncertainty, have kept these storms within PROB30 groups in the 18Z TAFs. In general ceiling are expected to remain above MVFR thresholds despite the storms, but visibility reductions due to the rain will be the primary cause for category reductions through the TAF period. Storms are expected to exit the forecast area and continue into Minnesota by sunrise Saturday morning at the latest.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.