textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Once lingering showers move out this morning, expect a dry forecast through the weekend.

- Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of central and north central South Dakota this weekend. Temperatures are set to cool down to below normal by the middle of next week.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central and north central South Dakota this weekend, particularly on Sunday when gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles per hour.

UPDATE

Issued at 942 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Light to moderate rain continues to fall over far eastern SD and western MN on the backside of the low currently hovering over southern MN along with its shortwave. This system will continue to track southeast through the day with rain ending over the far eastern CWA later on this afternoon. Allowed the FA.W that was over portions of Day/Roberts Counties through Big Stone/Traverse Counties to expire as the flooding and heavy rain threat has diminished. Will be expiring the other FA.W over portions of Day and Lyman to at the top of the hour. Otherwise, lower stratus continues mainly east of the Mo River. As this system tracks away from the region, skies will clear west to east through this evening. Ongoing smoke aloft will continue to create a haze in the sky. Other than updating pops per radar and cloud cover, forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Some light rain showers linger over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this morning. Storms yesterday produced a fairly extensive swath of 4"-6" in total precipitation (as of roughly 07Z) and MRMS estimates indicate that some localized areas may have received as much as 6"-8". While lingering showers are expected to be fairly light in terms of rain rate, another 0.5"-1" of rain may fall through the morning hours today. Flooding concerns will remain where showers last this morning.

An upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS over the next couple of days, which will shift the upper-level ridge axis over the region to become more positively tilted. The resulting pattern leads to a thermal gradient over the forecast area over the weekend. Highs will range from slightly below normal (low 80s) east of the James River increasing to the 90s to perhaps low 100s west of the Missouri River. Strong southerly winds from a low-level jet will also be present this weekend. Saturday's winds will be a touch lower and more localized than Sunday's winds, gusting up to 20 to 30 miles per hour along and west of the Missouri River. Coverage will expand Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour possible everywhere along and west of the James River Valley. These winds combined with the aforementioned heat will create some elevated fire weather concerns over central and north central South Dakota, particularly on Sunday. With this latest forecast, the Grassland Fire Danger will reach High to Very High that day for counties along the Missouri River. Non-zero chance for a Red Flag Warning, but will likely be highly dependent upon temperatures.

The next chances for rain come early next week due to the development of an upper-level trough and associated jet streak moving over the region. This setup will bring a cold front across the region, along which showers and storms may develop. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the timing, but confidence is increasing in the Monday evening to overnight Tuesday time frame having the best chances for rain (mainly across northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota). While still a bit far out to delve into the specifics of a potential severe weather threat, but mid- range model guidance continues to show probabilities of severe weather consistent with a Marginal Risk.

Behind the cold front, expect a brief cooldown in temperatures. Tuesday's and Wednesday's highs look to be about 5-10 degrees below normal for a change, generally in the 70s across the board both days. Beyond that point uncertainty grows drastically, but there are some signals for a warmup back to at least near-normal for the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patches of MVFR/IFR CIGs across the region through the morning hours, affecting KABR/KATY the most. Also still dealing with areas of -RA/RA over the KATY region, with perhaps brief MVFR VSBY in any heavier shower that may develop. Conditions are forecast to trend VFR across the region later today.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.