textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air remains in place into the weekend. Temperatures today not expected to rise above zero. Wind chills this morning 35 below to 45 below zero.

- Temperatures back into the single digits below to teens below zero tonight. Winds chills Saturday morning morning of 20 below to 30 below.

- Slightly moderating temperatures early next week into the teens and 20s above zero!

UPDATE

Issued at 1035 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There are a few streamers of lower clouds and potential flurries coming off of the open waters of the Missouri River in our cold northerly wind. This moved into Pierre around 10 AM. Otherwise, our bitterly to dangerously low wind chills are starting to slowly moderate.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

1050'ish Arctic high pressure gradually slides across the Dakotas/Minnesota today, so with light winds temperatures are not expected to recover much. A lack of thick, fluffy snow cover may is the only saving grace, and that may allow for a little bit better recovery. The high moves east and weakens slightly, and by Saturday morning we have a light southerly flow with about a 6mb gradient across the state, and pressure falls of 6mb in 6 hours. Hardly earth shattering, but that and the aforementioned lack of thick snow cover suggests temperatures will not tank quite as dramatically for Tonight. There is also a suggestion for some increasing low/mid cloud cover with warm advection in the 900-800mb layer. Its not terribly strong, and doesn't get going until after 03-06Z meaning an ample window for favorable radiational conditions.

There is also a really subtle shortwave pinwheeling overhead around a longwave trough extending off the eastern CONUS trough/upper low Friday evening that could provide some weak lift. Temperatures within the profile are colder than the dendritic growth zone, so wouldn't anticipate anything more than diamond dust.

As for wind chills, will let the current set of headlines continue through mid-day/early afternoon and the day shift can adjust as we warm up. May need additional headlines up along the northern tier of the state for Saturday but not nearly as widespread or as long a duration.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The long term opens Saturday evening with the first of two upper level waves to move across the region during the period. The next wave comes through late Tuesday through early Thursday. Down at the surface, high pressure moves in Wednesday and lasts through the end of the period. Each of these waves brings a slight drop in temperatures and little in the way of precipitation chance. Temperatures are still expected to be below normal with highs Sunday in the single digits above and below zero (20-25 degrees below normal). Following this, temperatures stay mainly in the teens to twenties above zero (10-15 degrees below normal). Monday morning "feels like" temperatures looks to be relatively cold again, with widespread winds chills in the -25 to -30 degree F range across north central and northeast SD into west central MN. We aren't expecting anything in the way of windy days through the period. Winds stay relatively light, aside from maybe some stronger gusts closer to 25 mph along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1035 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The exception is at PIR, which is near a band of lake effect/river effect clouds and potential flurries. The steady very cold air out of the north over the warmer/open waters has resulted in streamers of clouds and flurries. The winds will shift after around 20Z, disrupting the streamers and putting an end to the MVFR conditions at PIR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039- 046.