textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog across northeast SD tonight, with visibility down to below 1 mile at times.

- Warm, dry, and windy on Sunday with record/near record highs and critical fire weather conditions for portions of central/south central SD.

- Unsettled pattern early next week with thunderstorm chances for the eastern CWA Monday afternoon. Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms along the SD/MN border and further eastward more into central MN.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Still seeing drizzle across portions of the eastern CWA early this afternoon and expect that to continue for at least a few hours. Back edge of the stratus deck across central SD has pushed far enough east to clear KPIR out of the clouds. Trend for the overnight is still for this stratus deck to eventually move eastward and erode from the west/south into early Sunday morning. Models are showing a pretty quick erosion by early morning as a sharp warm frontal boundary moves northeast across the region overnight, with warmer and drier air in its wake as winds also turn to more of a southwest direction. Models still indicating fog across portions of the eastern CWA as well, so left mention of that in the forecast.

Later this afternoon, there may be a few showers/thundershowers across western SD that move northeast and perhaps approach the western fringes of the CWA by early evening. Have small PoPs (20- 30%) for this in the grids for the evening/overnight as the warm front moves northeast.

Focus then shifts to Sunday as we'll be in the warm/dry air mass in the wake of the warm front. Westerly mixing winds will increase through the day with inverted-V soundings for most locations across the CWA. Increased highs a few degrees beyond inherited NBM values, which puts most places in the upper 70s to low 80s. Also lowered dewpoints more towards NBM25, while increasing winds just a couple knots. All this puts the southwest CWA into, or flirting with Red Flag criteria, so went ahead and issued the warning for our southwest CWA from 17Z to 00Z tomorrow. May need headlines for fire wx on Monday also, as current RH/wind forecast meets, or is very close to criteria for our southwest CWA once again.

Precip chances return to the forecast on Monday as a wave of low pressure moves eastward along a frontal boundary which is forecast to be located across southern SD. Potential exists for a few thunderstorms over the southeastern CWA, but better severe storm parameters and resultant severe storm threat looks to be setting up further east over into MN. But, SPC Day 3 outlook does bring the western extent of strong thunderstorm potential into the very far eastern CWA, and CAMs do hint at some convective potential in that area, so something to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGs over KABR/KATY have quickly lowered to IFR at the start of the TAF period, and may even drop a bit further into LIFR by late afternoon and persisting into the evening/nighttime hours. Also seeing areas of -DZ at these terminals, which should persist to some extent into the afternoon hours. Areas of BR/FG will also bring VSBY down to MVFR/IFR at times this afternoon into the nighttime hours. In fact, KATY could see a period of VSBY below 1 mile.

Over KMBG, mainly MVFR CIGs forecast at the start of the TAF period, with improvements to VFR forecast by late afternoon/early evening.

For KPIR, it appears MVFR CIGs will depart the area at the start of the TAF period, with VFR conditions forecast through the period.

Also of note, low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be an issue for the evening/overnight hours into early Sunday morning and have mention of this for all TAF sites.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051. MN...None.