textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and Heat Advisory for the rest of central and portions of northeastern SD and west central MN have been issued. Near record high temperatures could potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat.

UPDATE

Issued at 905 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Had earlier removed PoPs across the eastern CWA after convection had dissipated and there was no evidence of additional building cumulus clouds. Expecting mostly clear skies through the rest of the night with light southerly breezes as lows bottom out in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

As a frontal boundary tries to move south today over northeastern SD into an area with some instability, scattered showers and storms might try to form this afternoon into the evening over northeastern SD. Models are showing decent instability, around 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE values, over northeastern SD and west central MN this afternoon. While there is decent instability for storm development, there is a lack of shear over the area to help create organized and longer lived storms. High-res models continue to show the storms developing and moving through northeastern SD. Through the evening, the storms should start to dissipate and/or move to the south. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the storms to become severe. With mid-level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, hail up to 1 inch and 60 mph wind gusts could be possible if any storm tries to develop.

An upper-level ridge will be starting to move in tonight and will continue to build and sit over SD through the weekend into the middle of next week. This ridge will help some surface high pressure to build to the southeast of central and northeastern SD, which will help to keep showers and storms from developing during the weekend into the beginning of next week. The ridge and high pressure will start to move warm temperatures in this weekend into next week. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be 10-20 degrees warmer than normal and this could lead to record or near record high temperatures in north central and potentially south central SD. Saturday, high temperatures and heat index values will in the low 90s to 100 degrees. It will warm Sunday through Tuesday to be in the mid 90s to above 100 degrees. Low temperatures will not recover very much overnight, especially Sunday night, which could help to further increase chances for heat related impacts. The NWS heat risk will be in the major category for central and northeastern SD through the weekend into next week and could even get up into the extreme category Monday and Tuesday. Those who are sensitive to heat or without adequate cooling and hydration will be vulnerable to heat illnesses and other heat impacts. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool in this heat. An extreme heat warning has been issued for north central SD and a heat advisory has been issued for the rest of central and northeastern SD and west central MN. East central is on the edge of needing a heat advisory, and one will likely be issued later. Additionally, the heat advisory might be upgraded to extreme heat warning in some areas as compounding effects from long term heat could start to cause issues in areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021- 033>037-045-048-051. Extreme Heat Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016. MN...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-046.