textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries or a light dusting of snow will continue today between the Missouri River the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota, with the chance of accumulation being less than 20%.

- There is a 30% chance of light snow tonight. Warmer air will allow for a wintry mix of light rain or snow this evening near and west of the Missouri River. Expect less than a half inch of snow.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast (by 5 to 20 degrees) Wednesday through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday and then again Monday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Moisture diminishes in the primary snow growth region after 18Z today at Aberdeen, after 21Z over far northeastern SD and is already out over central SD. A look at area webcams with light snow falling west of Redfield does support the light radar returns. The flurries or light snow (chance of precipitation of around 15% or less) will continue today between the Missouri River the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota. The surface weather map shows a large area of high pressure along the ND/MN border, with a ridge extending across far northeastern SD and west central MN. While much of the area is under a thick stratus deck, the drier air from the surface high is at least temporarily resulting in a mostly clear sky over our 3 northeastern counties. Additional clouds are moving in from the northwest, with the area of clear sky in flux. The surface high over the northern half of MN by 15Z will push to the southern half of MN by 00Z Wednesday and over IA/WI tonight. In the meantime, a weak surface trough and 500mb wave will bring another round of light snow tonight. The chance of precipitation is only 30%, with little to no snowfall accumulation expected (less than a half inch). Warmer air near and west of the Missouri River will allow for light rain, or a wintry mix of rain or snow this evening.

Dry weather will return Wednesday as another area of high pressure over eastern MT/WY at 06Z swings overhead. Temperatures east of the Missouri River look to be about 5 degrees higher than what is expected today.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Upper level pattern is back into a predominantly northwest flow regime, with a broad upper ridge expanding to the west. The ridge doesn't ever progress to overhead, however it does direct the flow off the Canadian Rockies. Thus, expect a mostly dry period. There may be a clipper late Saturday/early Sunday. The latest EC backs off on the strength of this system, with the Canadian also showing just a weak wave. The GFS remains more bullish at this point, but there is still much time between now and then and the system which is still out over the Aleutians has another 72 hours before we even begin to talk out it traversing the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Regardless, doesn't look like much of a moisture producer with only a few ensemble members even producing 0.01-0.02" of moisture. Nor does it have much of a surface reflection with much influence on winds or temperatures.

As for temperatures, with northwest flow we see the arctic front slip back and forth across the Northern Plains, with the coldest air directed well east of the area. The warmest airmass goes through Monday with 850mb temperatures up around +10C, about a standard deviation above climo. The ridge to the west gets suppressed thereafter indicating a possible pattern change however we're getting pretty far out there to hazard what kind of pattern will follow or whether it will stick.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The mix of MVFR and IFR cigs will continue over the next 24 hours. Closer to the exiting surface high, mainly VFR conditions will continue at ATY through 00Z Wednesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.