textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow this evening into Friday of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

- Strong northwest wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected by early this afternoon across central and north central South Dakota, with an increase to 50 to 65 mph later tonight into Friday. A Wind Advisory has been posted for this afternoon into this evening, while a High Wind Watch continues late tonight through Friday for areas west of Brown and Spink counties.

- These winds, when combined with areas of falling snow, could lead to brief periods of significantly reduced visibility and hazardous travel conditions, especially if snow squalls occur.

- Strong winds return Sunday, when gusts behind a cold front may reach up to 45 mph west of the James River Valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 417 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

At 3 AM CST, skies are partly cloudy and temperatures are in the teens to around 30 degrees. South winds 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts are happening as well.

A look at the latest surface analysis reveals that the parent surface low is well up in central Canada, heading for the Hudson Bay region. This system's warm front extends down across the CONUS northern plains and is just about to enter the northwest corner of the CWA. Low level WAA should be at a premium across the CWA over the next 9 hours or so. Tough in this kind of flow pattern sometimes to analyze surface cold fronts. Not seeing any cold fronts right now within several hundred miles of this CWA. It's later this afternoon after 18Z that warm northwest boundary layer winds begin to become cool northwest boundary layer winds (weak low level CAA starts up). As this low level CAA component is added to the mixing layer, lapse rates within the lowest 3km of the atmosphere begin to sink up, and some wind advisory potential gusts could be achieved. Momentum transfer tool output in BUFKIT suggests sub-High Wind Warning criteria winds will begin to overspread the CWA from northwest to southeast (stopping short of the James River valley) mainly in the early afternoon through late evening timeframe before any potential for strong winds/gusts to develop may happen. There is less than ideal pressure rises with this unfolding event and the low level CAA probably isn't sufficient either until after 06Z tonight. So, have issued a wind advisory for the western half of the CWA from appx mid- day/early afternoon through midnight tonight and then pick up/continue with the High Wind Watch for late tonight through Friday. It's not a slam dunk. Models keep delaying the onset of High Wind warning conditions.

The other fly in the ointment is snowfall coverage and amounts from appx 23Z this afternoon through late in the day Friday. The latest iteration of model solutions has some of these "snow streamers" showing up now moving down into the CWA out of North Dakota over in north central South Dakota as early as early this evening, with some streamers potentially capable of producing 0.5-1.5in of snowfall. Combined with the strong winds expected to be in place across central and north central South Dakota, the blowing snow model is now generating blowing snow, including some localized areas (not widespread) that would satisfy blowing snow winter weather advisory. The somewhat more widespread coverage of blowing snow winter weather advisory conditions appears to be lining up over the Prairie Coteau where 1-2.5in of snow accumulation is forecast. The latest trends in snow squall output is for there to be an initial surge of pre-arctic fropa low level "cold air CAPE" and steep low level lapse rates sweeping southeastward across the CWA between appx 22Z this afternoon and 04Z this evening. Then, with the secondary/arctic cold fropa sweeping south through the CWA between appx 06Z and 11Z Friday, there is still some lower-bound CAPE values (~25-75J/kg) and 5-7C/km low level lapse rates leftover to tap into along the boundary for perhaps a second round of stronger snow showers/squalls to deal with. Again, outside of the Prairie Coteau region, guidance is for snow accumulations to be mainly associated with these bands or streamers of snow, which are not "widespread", but more localized. Snowfall amounts could be characterized as a skiff to around an inch or so "with locally higher amounts". It's within these localized areas that blowing snow could make for reduced visibility, and pretty much just when it's snowing. If the band of snow moves away, or someone drives into and then back out of a band of this stuff, visby should quickly fall and then quickly improve again. Tough call for what type of headline or product to use. Over on the Coteau, where wind speeds may be a bit more pedestrian (only wind advisory strong), but areal coverage of 1 to 2+ inches of snow could be more widespread in nature, that area seems more like a candidate for a winter weather advisory for blowing snow (Clark, Day, Marshall and Roberts counties), and probably from late tonight through the end of the event.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 417 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Focus in the extended period now shifts to a system moving in Sunday. This system will be driven by a low pressure center passing to the east. A tightening pressure gradient will induce strong northwest flow over the region, potentially bringing a return to a wind headline. The strongest winds are still expected over central and and north central South Dakota (all areas west of Brown and Spink counties), showing a broad 40-60% probability of reaching Wind Advisory criteria (30 mph sustained, gusts to 45). This low pressure system will also drag a cold front across the forecast area, leading to some potential development of some light snow showers. Model soundings expect mainly shallow development, but temperatures may be cold enough to support growth within the DGZ (therefore leading to high SLRs) regardless. NBM probabilities for snow remain fairly low, just showing around a 20% chance of any measurable accumulation over the Prairie Coteau. Based on model soundings this feels perhaps a bit too low, and forecaster expectation would be more in line with the GEFS/Euro ensembles, giving broad 10-50% gradient from central South Dakota and increasing moving northeast. Regardless, fairly minor accumulations are expected at this time.

Beyond Sunday, temperatures take a brief dip Monday to below normal, and Monday morning apparent temperatures could reach below -20 degrees. Mid-week, the upper-level ridge over the western CONUS begins to deteriorate, which will help return the Aberdeen forecast area to near-normal temperatures for this time of year. Beyond Sunday's light snow, the rest of the extended forecast will have limited precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail today into tonight. The caveat is how much post cold frontal stratus could develop. Also, if snow showers develop, the more intense ones could rapidly, but briefly, drop visibility down into some form of IFR. South winds this morning around 10 to 15 knots will become west-northwesterly from roughly mid-day through early this evening, as a cold front passes through the region. These northwest winds will increase to something on the order of 20 to 30 knots sustained with gusts between 35 and 45 knots. Any snow showers that form and move through the region with this first cold frontal passage, should be out of the picture by 06Z, which is roughly when the next cold frontal passage will begin working through the region. Another round of snow showers could accompany this frontal passage, along with an increase in northwest winds to something closer to 25 to 35 knots sustained with gusts between 45 and 55 knots by the end of the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for SDZ003>005-009-010- 015>017.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM CST /1 PM MST/ this afternoon to midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.