textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue (10 to 30 degrees) through at least Tuesday of next week. The warmest days will be Sunday and Monday where portions of south central SD will reach the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Wind gusts of 40-45 mph out of the west-northwest are expected over the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills this evening into the early overnight hours.

- Chances for moisture (20-40%) for the middle of next week, but confidence in model guidance is low. Current trends are for a weak system or two (low amounts of moisture) to move through the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The forecast is mostly on track this evening. Winds may be a little too high, too soon in advance of the caa with the back door cold front. Will continue hourly tweaks as necessary.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Mid afternoon temperatures across the forecast area range from the 40s across northeast SD and west central MN to the low to mid 50s up and down the James Valley to the mid 50s to low 60s across central SD. Quite a remarkable warm air mass overhead for early February! Unfortunately, this will be short lived, temporarily, as a cold front is progged to push south through the area late tonight into early Friday. This will usher in a noticeably cooler air mass to end the work week on gusty north-northwest winds and a low probability of a few sprinkles or flurries overnight into Friday.

This evening will remain rather quiet with temperatures falling back into the 30s and 40s after sunset. A pre-frontal trough will first slip south through the area between 02Z-05Z turning winds more toward a north to northwest direction and increasing to 20-30 mph that will carry through the overnight. While the wind direction remains out of a westerly direction, a period of stronger downslope winds are expected on the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau. Gusts here could reach 45 mph or locally stronger. Once the direction become more north-northwesterly and parallel to the downslope area, roughly around 08Z-10Z Friday, the stronger gusts are expected to diminish. The backdoor cold front is anticipated to push into our eastern zones between 10Z-12Z and continue to sink southwest through the mid morning hours. Cold air advection will kick in behind the fropa with 925mb temperatures falling to between -5C and -15C across northeast SD and west central MN from about mid morning to mid afternoon. At sunrise, temperatures are expected to still be in the upper 20s to mid 30s from the James Valley and points east and then either remain steady trough mid to late morning before slowly falling into the mid teens to mid 20s by late afternoon. Central SD will see relatively warmer conditions during the day with readings remaining in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

With the fropa and post-fropa, a few sprinkles or flurries can't be ruled out late tonight through Friday morning with the low stratus developing and some instability developing within that cloud layer. One interesting note in this process is there is a low probability that some spots may see patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle depending on the temperatures. Not confident at this time to put mention of it in the forecast, but BUFKIT profiles across our eastern zones show increasing low level saturation growing in depth. At this time, the thinking is the depth of that saturation will be be shallow enough to preclude any drizzle/freezing drizzle, but it is something that will have to be monitored.

Milder air is still expected to return for the weekend into early next week. Increasing low level southerly flow between high pressure to our east and a stationary boundary/elongated low across the western Dakotas and Northern High Plains will lead to a breezy Saturday. This will help to draw in a warmer air mass as temperatures in the 30s and 40s return. Guidance does prog a weak upper wave will traverse through the region the middle of the weekend and push a cold front through our forecast area. At this point, moisture levels remain rather low so anticipate dry conditions will persist. But, it's something to keep an eye on. Beyond that, quasi-zonal flow takes hold as the upper flow pattern becomes more split across the CONUS by the middle of next week. Sunday into Monday look to remain dry and very mild again with temperatures back into the 40s and 50s with even some low 60s possible across south central SD. A couple of weak passing upper waves will be possible the middle of next week that could deliver some precipitation to the area. With that split flow pattern in place, confidence is low on timing and locations of any said precip.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR overnight at all sites with some improvement Friday afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest and north tonight and become breezy as colder air advects in.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.