textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will continue this evening across central and north central South Dakota behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all counties west of Brown and Spink through early Friday morning.

- Another round of light rain moves into eastern SD and west central MN this evening before exiting late tonight. Up to a tenth of an inch of rain is possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The main concern, other than the light shower activity along the ND/SD border and over the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills, is the ongoing strong winds. A reinforcing round of strong winds will move across northeastern SD/west central MN 03-11Z Friday. Gusts on the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau may briefly gust at or around 45mph. The ongoing Wind Advisory for much of central SD continues until 09Z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty northwest winds continue to spread east today behind the sfc cold front and with the upper trough. There have been a couple gusts over 58 mph along and west of the Missouri in the clear air, better mixing environment, but nothing widespread enough to merit an upgrade. As the upper trough digs in more this evening, the 80 to 90kt jet will help keep the winds gusty overnight. Ensemble 90th percentiles keep gusts to 50 mph over the Coteau and the Sisseton Hills early Friday morning. Current NBM holds those gusts to around 40 mph, so did not expand the wind headlines farther east for now.

Another area of low clouds is wrapping around the low in northern ND and pushing south into north central SD this afternoon. These clouds are expected to expand and stick around most of the night. Some additional sprinkles or light rain is possible in this wraparound/deformation zone. Between the persistent winds and the clouds, temperatures should not drop below freezing. Blended in hi- res model guidance to push temps up a few degrees. Have lows in the 30s for tonight with Corson county approaching freezing as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Given the winds, decided not to go with any frost headlines for tonight. However, Friday night/Saturday morning will need another look for frost/freeze headlines. There are still model differences in timing of a building ridge aloft and exit of the sfc high that will influence Friday night's lows.

Temperatures warm above normal starting Saturday with the ridge aloft. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will lower to MVFR as thicker/lower clouds sink in from the north. Winds gusting 33-43kts will slowly diminish overnight, with VFR ceilings returning to all sites by 16Z Friday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005- 009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None.