textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures to continue through Monday. Today and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees above normal, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

- There is a 40-60% chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday night, with most of the precipitation falling Friday afternoon into Friday night as light rain transitions to a wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain, and then to all snow late Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

As of 1 AM CST, there are some areas of dense fog across portions of central and northeast SD this morning reducing visibilities to a quarter mile or less. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the more widespread reduction of visibility along and east of the James River Valley. This is expected to dissipate later this morning. Temperatures around the region are in the upper 20s to low 30s under clear skies with light winds mainly out of the south.

Models have somewhat weakened the low tracking across our area Friday and moved it slightly southward. This has resulted in a reduction to QPF. Models have also somewhat backed off on WAA in the mid layers and reduced freezing rain potential significantly. The remaining chances are 15% or less and concentrated over the northern portion of the Prairie Coteau. Snow chances remain somewhat the same with the probability of an inch or more of snow between 20 and 40%. As an overview, Thursday evening starts with rain before transitioning through rain/snow mix to just snow from northwest to southeast early Friday morning through Friday evening. Precipitation is expected to move east and out of the region late Friday evening. Winds during this event look to gust 25 to 35 mph but with snow ratios close to 10:1 (heavier, wetter snow), blowing snow is not expected to be much of an issue at the moment. Friday evening, there is some CAPE over far eastern SD that could result in a few rumbles of thunder. Models are showing a pretty quick warm up Saturday through Monday with highs potentially reaching almost 70 degrees in south central SD Monday afternoon. Temperatures look to cool down Tuesday and Wednesday as another low moves across the region. This looks to bring another round of snow, although its far to early to say where or how much with any sort of certainty.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

FG/BR continues to affect parts of northeast SD, with VSBY below 1SM at times, especially at KATY where VSBY has been 1/4SM. IFR CIGs possible as well over KATY and to a lesser extent in KABR. Improvements to VFR are forecast on Wednesday, but FG/BR forecast once again over northeast SD (KABR/KATY) Wednesday night. Across KPIR/KMBG, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for SDZ007-008- 011-019>023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MNZ039-046.