textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the 7- day forecast.

- There is a 30-50% chance of precipitation Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning across South Dakota. Snow will be the main weather type over northeastern South Dakota, with a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow over central South Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1017 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Increased sky cover a bit across the region as a BKN-OVC stratus deck settles in. Still seeing some light radar returns across the eastern CWA, with perhaps a few flurries or even light sprinkles/freezing drizzle/freezing sprinkles. Warm sector still lies over southern parts of the CWA, but cold front and low-level cold air advection beginning across northern areas.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 219 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Light precipitation, mainly in the form of drizzle/sprinkles remains across the far eastern CWA, under a north south line of stratus east of the James valley. In North Dakota, another area of stratus is pivoting southwards, meaning the area of clearing along the Missouri River will be short lived as it migrates east southeast early this morning. Otherwise we will just have this mild airmass across the area today with west northwest flow. Weak high pressure out of Canada extends southwards and tonight winds shift to easterly. Could be some upslope clouds west river under this high. This is also responsible for some cooler air, albeit much milder in comparison to the last several days. A weak system drops southeast across the Dakotas for Monday. P-type is primarily snow, with some uncertainty along the western fringe with a warm nose very close to the freezing mark up around 800mb. A deeper dive into NAM profiles is an intermittent lack of ice in the dendritic growth zone well into the area where the P-type should be snow. Will continue to roll with the NBM as the system is only just moving into the far north of the CWA at the end of the short term period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 219 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The weak surface low will reside over western SD at 00Z Tuesday, with a 1030mb high over southern Manitoba. The 500mb trough will be set up over the Dakotas. Light precipitation will be ongoing, with the snow growth region located at or slight above the best moisture layer. While Aberdeen looks to stay cold enough to stay snow, several locations over central SD will see a warm intrusion of air just above the surface that will likely be enough to bring a wintry mix of rain, or freezing rain, along with the light snow. At this point we'll have to see where the main band of light precipitation (up to around 0.05" liquid) sets up. The idea has been pretty consistent over the central portions of our forecast area, with a slight westward shift over the past 24 hours. Surface temperatures that were above freezing over our far southwestern counties should fall below freezing by 09Z Tuesday and remain below freezing through 15Z Tuesday. The weather surface trough will sink southeast Tuesday morning, with little to no precipitation lingering past 12-18Z, although it will be difficult to rule out very light precipitation.

The surface low over Manitoba will cross MN Monday night-Tuesday and into IA into Wednesday. An area of low pressure over Manitoba Wednesday night will extend a trough through the Dakotas and push a warm front across the area. Thursday still looks to be the warmest day of the upcoming work week, with highs in 40s for most folks, while upper 30s for portions of the Prairie Coteau and low 50s for several areas west of the MO River. Mixing Thursday could help bring down slightly warmer air as winds gust 25-35 mph. A 500mb trough clipping our northeastern counties (along with the surface trough) could bring light precipitation, but at this point mainly dry weather looks to prevail with much of the precipitation staying over northern and eastern MN Thursday night into Friday.

A surface ridge will slide overhead Friday and across MN Saturday. Temperatures for Thursday through Sunday have the potential to be a several degrees higher than the current forecast, as they may be leaning closer to our cooler trends as of late. Stay tuned.

The cold front of this system will track in over the CWA Sunday, with the region on the southern side of a high pressure system over Canada, into Monday. The CWA will be within the gradient between this high and low to our northwest (along with weak energy aloft) may result in the return of light snow showers (30-50%) Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

Temps will gradually increase west to east over the CWA behind the warm front with temps near sunrise overall in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs for Sunday will range in the upper 20s to upper 30s, warmest south central SD. With this high pressure to our northeast early next week, temps will only be in the upper teens to lower 20s JRV and eastward with temps in the 20s/30s west of here. Warmer temps then expected Wednesday as WAA filters in from the west with the ridge aloft. Highs for Thursday could potentially range in the 40s and 50s!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue across the region through much of the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.