textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures, dry conditions with east winds of 15 to 20 mph today.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two. Widespread moisture unlikely.

- Cooler Tuesday with highs in the 40s. Northwest winds gusting 30 to 45 mph in the morning.

- Potential for more widespread moisture in the form of snow or rain/snow mix for the latter half of the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Low pressure to the south means east/northeast surface winds and a tight thermal gradient across the northern tier of the state. A shortwave embedded within the northern jet stream over North Dakota/southern Canada translates into light precipitation up to our north and little chance for this part of South Dakota. The low moves to our south and helps enhance cold advection late Monday into Tuesday. Some mid level clouds and possibly weak instability in this regime could allow for a few spits of rain, however NBM probabilities for exceeding 0.01" is still only about 40% along the northern tier of the state, with just 15% for the Pierre/Chamberlain areas. Probabilities for 0.1" is just a paltry 15% up by Eureka. NAM did have a few bullseyes of higher QPF during past runs across the CWA but this is no longer a feature in the 00Z run. Thus... don't expect much moisture from this system. As for winds, mixed tool is still giving us winds in the mid 30kt range, and as such bumped up winds over NBM Tuesday.

Focus shifts to mid week precipitation chances. Previous runs 24 and 48 hours ago suggested split flow and weaker systems. Looks to be more convergence on a wetter solution with the latest few runs of the NBM compared to last night. There is also now the delineation into two distinct systems, one in the southern stream which progresses across the south/central Plains Wednesday before lifting into the Western Lakes region. We're well into the cool side of an upper level trough as this occurs, meaning the precipitation type is predominantly snow. We're still in diffluent flow aloft Thursday on the backside of the first wave, meaning additional QPF potential, before the next upper wave moves in Friday. Normally however, I would not be so enthusiastic about moisture in this type of setup, as the moisture would mostly end up to the west and broad high pressure to the east would feed in drier air into the northeast, and with only 5 to 10 microbars of ascent moisture would normally be limited to west river. Deterministic guidance and the NBM are suggesting otherwise.

With deterministic and ensembles having all seen a decent bump in moisture, NBM likewise is giving higher probabilities of QPF in comparison to 24 hours ago. NBM probability of exceeding 0.25" has increased from about 25% to closer to 60% through 00Z Friday.

This increase also means snow accumulation potential. NBM snow ratios are around 10:1 which is about right for this time of year under an atmosphere that lacks strong ascent. When we were talking about a 24-36 hour total of 1/4" of liquid, we're really meaning about 3". There is also a 30-40% probability of exceeding 0.5" which would be high end winter weather advisory (~5"), and only a 20% chance for 3/4" or low end winter storm warning.

Then you have the more traditional wave/Colorado low type system that follows for late in the work week. Thats still fairly far off to get any details on at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to remain the prevailing conditions at all terminals through the daytime hours today. Northeast winds will remain breezy at times through late morning at KABR/KMBG. Light rain will be possible tonight across the northern tier of SD so added PROB30 groups at KABR/KMBG. MVFR cigs will be possible at these 2 TAF sites in some of that light rain. Gusty northeast to northwest winds will return for all terminals late in this forecast cycle.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.