textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild air returns this weekend with above normal temperatures in the 30s and 40s east to the 50s to low 60s west.

- Next chances for measurable precipitation (20-30%) will be late Monday into Tuesday, but confidence in model guidance remains low. Current trends indicate that a weak system or two will move through the area during the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 839 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The forecast remains on track this morning, no major changes are planned.

UPDATE Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 343 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Still dealing with a band of stratus across the eastern Dakotas, affecting the northern James River valley through KATY within our CWA. Out west, also seeing scattered patches of stratus/fog and had earlier inserted mention of patchy fog across north central SD through the early morning hours. There is pretty good movement in the stratus off to the northeast, which follows trends shown by the HRRR/HREF low-level cloud products in taking the stratus out of here through the morning hours as southerly winds begin to increase. Will try to follow satellite trends in sky grids to better reflect the changing conditions. Mid/high level clouds also look to increase across the region today as well.

Warm air advection will overspread the region today with the increasing southerly winds. 925mb temps by this afternoon range from around 0C across the eastern CWA to as warm as +10C to +13C over portions of central SD. Looking at high temperatures ranging from the 30s east, to the 50s over central SD.

There are indications from the HREF members that stratus returns tonight across the eastern CWA and could remain in place into a good chunk of the day Sunday. This of course, could have an effect on high temperatures Sunday, so a trend worth monitoring. Current sky cover grids may not be capturing potential cloudiness enough if these clouds manage to materialize.

Otherwise, main highlight in the short term period is the very mild temperatures moving in on Sunday as 925mb temps rise to as high as +15C across central SD. Cooler across the east but still around +5C at 925mb. Favorable west-southwest mixing breezes as well. Stage is set for well above normal temperatures with widespread 50s and 60s expected along and west of the James River. Warmest readings expected west of the Missouri River though, as temps rise into the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 343 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Warm air will continue to stay over SD Monday and help to keep temperatures 15-25 degrees warmer than normal. This won't last too long as Monday afternoon/evening a cold front attached to a surface low pressure north of MN will sweep through central and northeastern SD. Some models have precipitation developing behind the frontal passage while others don't, and some of the models that do show precipitation keep it north of central and northeastern SD. This lowers the confidence in precipitation chances over central and northeastern SD late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Cooling temperatures also adds to lower confidence when it comes to forecasting the type of precipitation that falls, as there will be the chance for rain, rain/snow mix, and snow. The ECMWF p-type meteograms also have a few members that show freezing rain/drizzle and sleet occurring as well.

Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, some high pressure moves in over SD and helps to keep precipitation out of the area during that time. A shortwave/weak surface low pressure (depending on the model) is then forecast to move into southwestern SD Wednesday as an upper- level trough starts to move towards the state. This brings chances for more precipitation to central and northeastern SD through Thursday morning. Models vary location, how widespread, and the timing of the precipitation, which causes lower confidence in forecasting this precipitation. Additionally, temperatures will be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal through the week. This will lead to highs in the 40s and the chance for multiple precipitation types to occur again Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs are hanging on this morning in KATY, but trends are for CIGs to improve to VFR later this morning. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all TAF sites through the day. There are some indications of MVFR/IFR CIGs returning overnight across portions of northeast SD, including KATY and perhaps KABR. Confidence is somewhat low in areal coverage, so will continue to monitor for future TAF issuances.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.