textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures are expected tonight with overnight readings in the teens and 20s.

- Mild air returns this weekend with above normal temperatures in the 30s and 40s east to the 50s to low 60s west.

- Next chances for measurable precipitation (20-30%) will be Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, but confidence in model guidance remains low. Current trends still indicate that a weak system or two will move through the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Stratus has persisted all day across most of central and northeast SD with the only breaks in the overcast across far northeast SD and west central MN and portions of the Missouri Valley. Temperatures have remained steady in the mid 20s to low 30s across our eastern CWA to the upper 30s to low 40s across the Missouri Valley. A cold front swept southwest across our SD zones today and more or less will become stationary and wash out across central SD tonight. Behind this boundary, a sfc ridge axis will continue pushing south across the Dakotas/MN border this evening before turning eastward overnight. Weak cold air advection is progged to continue through late evening across our eastern zones with 925mb temps falling to -5C to -10C across northeast SD and west central MN. NBM probabilities of seeing overnight temperatures in the teens range from 70-100 percent across this area, mainly east of the James Valley. Central SD will remain more mild with readings in the 20s to around 30. With the sfc high drifting east after midnight and a southerly wind kicking in, temps will go steady if not slowly rise a couple degrees prior to sunrise across our eastern zones.

With high pressure on the east side of the forecast area and that stationary boundary across central and western sections of SD and weak low level steering flow into the overnight, the stratus will persist and remain "trapped" between the Missouri and James Rivers. After midnight and during the pre-dawn hours, we should see some erosion of this cloud deck but some will persist into the daytime hours. The pressure gradient tightens during the day leading to gusty southerly winds, especially east of the Missouri Valley. NBM probabilities of seeing wind gusts greater than 30 mph range from 50- 80 percent east of the Missouri Valley into the northeast corner of SD. Warm air advection on Saturday will boost 925mb temps back into a +5C(east) to +15C(west) range. A warm front/attached sfc low is expected to push east across the CWA Saturday afternoon and Saturday night with little fanfare other than switching winds back to the northwest. The warmest air looks to keep residence across central SD heading into the latter half of the weekend. However, that aforementioned attached low will pull down some cooler air behind it across northeast SD/west central MN with 925mb temps falling below 0C again. So, even though above normal readings are still expected, locales along and east of the James Valley will see highs on Sunday in the upper 30s to mid 40s. West of these areas, highs should make it back into the 50s with low 60s possible West River.

Next week will continue to feature a similar pattern through Monday with mild and dry conditions continuing. Beyond that, a bit of change still looks to be probable. Quasi-zonal flow takes hold as the upper flow pattern becomes more split across the CONUS by the middle of next week. The prognosis remains that our region could see a couple of weaker upper waves passing through the upper flow pattern that will bring in our next best chance of precip Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence remains low under this type of pattern so we'll continue to advertise a 20-30 percent chance for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A swath of MVFR stratus will remain over KABR for the next few hours as it continues to shrink. South to southeast winds increase Saturday with gusts of 25 to 30 kts at all sites before diminishing in the evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.