textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with temperatures around average for this time of year.

- There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 50-70% chance.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern.

UPDATE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Update for the 18Z aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The current forecast looks good overall. No major changes planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Update for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 60s with winds out of the north to northeast at generally less than 10 mph. Today will be pretty similar to the last few days with some showers and maybe some weak thunderstorms across central SD after midnight and into Sunday. These storms are expected to continue through the day Sunday, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. This outlook may be upgraded in future forecasts. The main threats look to be hail and wind. The NAM Nest in particular looks to have a bit of a bowing formation to the storms later in the evening which could produce some stronger winds.

The environment for those storms will be rather moist. PWAT values are again in the 99th to 99.5th NAEFS percentile and 1.5" over central SD. This could lead to some heavy rainfall during storms. Models are starting to increase MLCAPE with generally 1100-1200 J/kg. Lapse rates have actually come down a little in deterministic models. Looking at Monday, PWAT isn't as impressive but MLCAPE values are between 1200 and 1500 J/kg with lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain around average with highs in the 80s. Not too much in the way of smoke today, but there is a narrow band of some increased concentrations over the Missouri River valley. This would just bring a slight haze to the skies, nothing is expected to reach the surface.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be for all terminals through the valid taf period. Will maintain a PROB30 for showers around the KPIR area between 11-15Z. More widespread showers and thunderstorms may impact KMBG toward the end of the taf period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.