textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The strong winds will continue through the day Wednesday, shifting out of the northwest and west Wednesday morning. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph are expected, strongest over north central SD during the daytime hours Wednesday.

- There is a 30 to 60 percent chance of light rain Wednesday morning mainly north of U.S. highway 12. Little to no precipitation is expected.

- There is a 40 percent chance of light rain and snow Thursday, with little to no accumulation expected.

- High temperatures Saturday through Monday will be around 10 to 20 degrees above normal, warmest Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

At 18Z, the nearing low was set up from southern Saskatchewan with a trough extending through MT and WI into eastern CO. Winds will continue gust out of the south to south-southeast 30-45 mph, with the strongest winds west of the Missouri River. Winds will slowly diminish this evening over central SD as the surface trough nears and creates a low near the Black Hills/western SD by 06Z Wednesday. Winds over eastern SD will remain elevated. The northern low will cross southern Manitoba and northern ND overnight into Wednesday morning. The southern low shifts across southern SD to near the SD/NE/MN/IA border by 12Z Wednesday and into southwestern MN by 15Z before merging back north into the main Canadian low. There is a 2-4 hour window where light rain is possible (30-50% chance) mainly near the ND/SD border.

Assisted by cold air advection, winds will shift out of the northwest by 09Z over north central SD and mainly west of the James River Valley by 12Z, and become mainly out of the west over the entire forecast area by 15Z and increasing through the day. EFI highlights Corson and Dewey Counties for wind gusts above 45 mph, which may expand to the Leola Hills of north central SD. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of Wednesday over north central SD.

Fire weather concerns will increase for Jones and Lyman Counties Wednesday afternoon, given the strong winds and relative humidity values of 20-30 percent. Recent rainfall of around 0.5-0.75" may still have some soils remaining damp. There is also some green component showing up in the short grasses over eastern Lyman County based on area webcams. The Hot Dry Windy Index, which takes into account vapor pressure deficit, keeps the maximum daily value below the 90th percentile. Grassland Fire Danger Index values will again be in the high category for much of central to south central SD.

The cool Canadian high will settle in Thursday morning, and remain across the area through much of the day Friday. Highs Thursday will be mainly in the 40s (or around 10 degrees below seasonal norms). There is around a 40% chance of light rain or snow Thursday, with little to no precipitation expected. Much warmer air will be able to slide in behind the exiting low Friday through Sunday. The warmest day will be Sunday. While mid to upper 70s are in the forecast, 80s may be just as likely. So, stay tuned for forecast updates for this weekend. The best chance of widespread light precipitation will be Sunday afternoon into Monday (around a 50% chance of precipitation). A few rumbles of thunder may accompany the light rain Sunday afternoon/evening.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible this evening through the overnight hours at KABR/KATY terminals. The IFR conditions are expected after midnight through about sunrise to mid morning. VFR conditions are expected at KPIR/KMBG through most of this forecast cycle, although KMBG could see a brief period of MVFR cigs early Wednesday as light rain moves through. KABR will also see an increase in light rain potential early Wednesday morning.

Gusty south-southeast winds ranging between 20-30 kts will persist tonight into early Wednesday. A strong low level jet overhead late this evening into early Wednesday will promote low level wind shear potential at KATY/KPIR/KMBG terminals. Sfc winds become west to northwest Wednesday morning and remain gusty between 25-35 kts through the day as VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites by mid to late morning Wednesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ003-015.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004-005-009- 010.

MN...None.