textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for storms developing Monday evening and overnight. The main severe threats during that time frame will be hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

- Chances for severe storms return on Tuesday, and a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for much of the forecast area. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 70 miles per hour, hail of 1 inch in diameter, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The heavy rainfall threat is best Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

No significant changes to the going forecast this evening, as the area remains under ridging and dry air aloft. Expect the convection over far northwest SD to continue to left northeast this evening, but as the front slowly shifts east, do expect some isolated showers/thunderstorms to brush the far northern part of SD.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Even with increasing heights across the region, along with limited forcing, isolated showers developed in Hand and Buffalo counties. While there is decent instability, the lack of forcing and deep layer shear should limit convective development

Ridging aloft will continue to build into the area tonight into Monday with the grand ensemble showing 700 mb temps reaching +12C, or near the 90th percentile. While not the strongest cap, it may be enough to keep convection from developing in this CWA ahead of broad upper level trough. There are several models now supporting the idea of a mostly dry day across the CWA with thunderstorms developing over North Dakota, or where better forcing and weaker cap will be located. Better forcing moves into the CWA around 22-00Z, with an increasing LLJ developing over the eastern half of the CWA after 0Z or closer to 3Z Tuesday. After 0Z Tuesday appears to be the best opportunity for strong to severe storms over the eastern half of the CWA. With high values of precipitation potential placement, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorms, especially over northeastern SD and western Minnesota where the PPP is the highest.

Convective potential a little more cloudy on Tuesday. Cloud cover from the overnight thunderstorms could limit the heating potential leading to a mostly dry day. Or, the atmosphere could destabilize during the afternoon hours with more robust thunderstorm development. Overall, a more widespread severe threat appears better Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is when thunderstorms over the higher terrain areas of the Black Hills goes upscale into MCS with winds and torrential rainfall the main threats. The PPP is rather high Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with values exceeding 1.5 inches over a good portion of the CWA. These values show an increase risk for heavy rainfall, including localized flooding. Because the heavy rain event is still a few days away, will hold off on mentioning heavy rainfall in the forecast. The forecast period becomes drier after Wednesday with mostly above average temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A couple areas to watch for showers/thunderstorms during the period, both associated with a cold front sliding east-southeast across the area. For tonight, the upstream convection should largely stay to the N/NW of KMBG, but do have a few models showing it moving through KMBG during the overnight hours and switching winds around to the NW by early afternoon. Have left out of the TAF for now. The next opportunity comes for KABR late in the TAF period as convection is expected to develop along the front near or north of KABR between 23-03Z. Thus, did add a PROB30 for that brief period at the end of the forecast, but will need longer with the 06Z issuance.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.