textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storm (10-20%) late tonight into Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends into Jones and Lyman Counties. The main threats are for hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several days, however there is little potential for the smoke to get to the surface.

- Next best chance for moisture (35-55%) in the form of scattered storms is late Saturday/early Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

There will be some lower chances for some showers and storms to develop over northeastern SD and west central MN early this morning as a front passes through. After the front moves through, high surface pressure will be moving in, and will stick around through the day. In combination with the lack of moisture in the atmosphere, the high pressure will help to keep showers and storms from developing. Colder air has moved in behind that boundary and will help to keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The upper-levels continue to have northwest flow over SD through the weekend and into next week. This northwest flow will continue to move in wildfire smoke aloft from the fires out in the Pacific Northwest. However, with very little mixing, this smoke will not make it to the surface and only create hazy skies.

There will be some upper-level shortwaves that move over SD in the coming days. These shortwaves will provide some energy that could help showers and storms to develop over central and northeastern SD. The next chance for one of these shortwaves will be Friday night into Saturday morning. Additionally, a low level jet will be developing over western and central SD, and will help with the development of storms and showers. Models have been fairly consistent that something could develop during that time over portions of south central SD. However, there is some variability in timing and how widespread precipitation will be due to the lack of moisture in the atmosphere and where/when the models bring some moisture up into central SD. With the variability in the models as well as concerns about if, when, and where there will be moisture, there continues to be lower confidence for storms Friday night into Saturday morning. If storms are able to develop, there is a marginal rick (level 1 of 5) for them to become severe, with the main hazards of hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph possible.

Temperatures will warm slightly Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 80s to low 90s. The next big chance for showers and storms to occur is Sunday evening into Monday morning. There looks to be some more moisture moving into SD aloft Sunday. That, in combination with a boundary moving through and a bit of instability from the warmer temperatures, will help to develop showers and storms. Models still vary the location and timing of the showers and storms, which lowers confidence slightly. Despite this lower confidence, there is still a 35-55% chance of precipitation into Monday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.