textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Much above normal temperatures today, especially across central SD where readings in the 50s and 60s are expected. Cooler temperatures in the 40s further east.

- There is a slight chance (15-20%) for light rain/sprinkles across northern SD on Monday. There is also a chance (25-45%) for some precipitation Wednesday into Thursday but confidence on precipitation type is low.

UPDATE

Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Stratus continues to sink southward across north central and northeast SD. Many hi-res models picking up on this now and show the clouds moving further southward into the CWA and persisting into early afternoon potentially, especially in the James River valley. Cloud movement is also within the surface boundary where lower-level moisture is hung up. Of course, these clouds will play a part in the high temperature forecast if they linger around longer into early afternoon. Fog is possible as well from the James River valley westward towards the Missouri River through the morning hours, although don't see any evidence of anything yet in our CWA. Further north across ND, visibility is down in some locations in light fog.

The stationary front draped from north central SD into southeast SD will begin moving eastward today as a warm front and is forecast to be near I-29 by evening. Warmest 925mb temps reside across central SD today with readings from +13C to +15C by 00Z this evening. Further east closer to the warm front, more like +5C to +6C. So, quite a spread of temps across the CWA today, with the warmest readings in the 60s across central SD to the 30s and 40s over northeast SD into west central MN. Again, areal coverage and longevity of stratus may affect these high temps in some locations.

On Monday we'll see a weak surface low moving eastward across southern SD as a cold front drops south through the region. Models continue to show rather scant precipitation values as this system moves through, generally remaining dry or only up to 0.01 as a 90th percentile amount over north central SD in the NBM. Will leave only slight chances (15-20%) for measurable across northern SD during the day Monday. Given surface temperatures likely above freezing and warming into the 40s, precip type looks to be mostly light rain/sprinkles if anything were to materialize.

LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

After a cold front moves through SD Monday, a surface high pressure moves in overnight and stays through Tuesday night. This high pressure, as well as drier air aloft, helps to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD. At the same time, temperatures will cool sightly to be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal through the rest of the week.

Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough is moving into the state. This then helps a surface low move over SD Wednesday into Thursday. However, models continue to vary the location of this low, as some have the low move into southwest SD and others have the low in northern NE. Depending on where the low moves through, the precipitation chances in the models also shifts north or south. Models that follow a more northerly track have more chances for snow to occur, such as the ECMWF members showing mainly snow for towns across central and northeastern SD rather than rain. Other models, with a more southerly track, show more rain and rain/snow mix Wednesday changing over to snow during the night. With the differences in the models, there continues to be lower confidence in the location/track of the precipitation as well as the precipitation types. An eye will need to be kept on upcoming model runs to see if there is more consensus or if they start to trend towards specific outcomes.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of MVFR/IFR CIGs has dropped southward out of ND and across KABR. This same deck of clouds looks to move into KMBG later this morning as well. Cannot rule out FG/BR (with IFR VSBY) across portions of northern SD, more so in the KMBG region. Conditions are forecast to eventually become VFR for KABR and KMBG, but it may take until mid day or so for KABR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.