textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with temperatures through mid week running some 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- South winds on the increase, topping out around 30 to 40 mph west river today. The corridor of highest winds slowly shift east through Sunday/Monday/Tuesday, with peak winds around 25 to 35 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Not much going on for the next few days, with high pressure moving to the east and setting up a gradient that waxes and wanes slightly over the next few days, peaking around 18mb Today, and running around 12 to 14mb through Tuesday. The result is a stiff southerly breeze and mild temperatures. The core of strongest winds shifts with the gradient. Western and central/north central South Dakota today, central South Dakota into the James valley Sunday, and central South Dakota east into the James valley and Sisseton hills/glacial lakes region both Monday and Tuesday. Fire weather is a concern with corn still being harvested, recent hard freezes reducing amount of green vegetation and the winds, however despite the 'mild' temperatures (mid 50s) afternoon humidity remains high, only down to around 50- 70%

In regards to the system Wednesday/Thursday, deterministic models are still projecting a low moving up across the state of South Dakota, from southwest to northeast or thereabouts. NBM deterministic is down to a few hundreds, with the 25th-75th range dropping to nothing to less than a tenth of an inch across the northern tier of the CWA. Given the low/wave progression, most of the moisture will be associated with wrap around and thus the lower QPF. We're also seeing a fairly high range in the 25th-75th range for high temperatures Wednesday due to uncertainty with the system's degree of warm advection and timing with a range of about 6 to 8F along with a gradient in the ranges from northwest to southeast as we move into the cold advection portion of the system.

A low follows close behind the first, with the EC/GFS/Canadian taking it across the Dakotas/Minnesota for next weekend. Way too far out for details, but the NBM is probabilities for rain are about equal to that of snow as the system departs and as such we are seeing rain/snow mix starting to show up in the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday evening. South to southeast winds increase again on Saturday with gusts to 30 kts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.