textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong winds could continue to gust up to 40mph and locally higher along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau and over the Leola hills into the evening before starting to decrease overnight. These winds could continue to cause some drifting snow.

- Temperatures will return to below normal values tonight through Friday, with highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

- Tuesday morning will have wind chills of -15 to -25 degrees over north central and northeastern SD, which will be the coldest wind chills for the next few days.

UPDATE

Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 943 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Made some minor adjustments this evening for the update. More or less to bring winds and cloud cover in line with observations. Tracking a little bit of low cloudiness drifting into our northeast zones out of southeast ND/northwest MN. Did increase sky cover in those areas through the late evening and early overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

A warm front has moved through central and northeastern SD afternoon, causing warmer temperatures and some stronger winds. A wind advisory was in effect through the afternoon due to downsloping winds along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau gusting up around 45 mph with some locally higher gusts. This advisory was ended at 3PM CST as winds have started to weaken below 40mph and will continue to decrease as a cold front move through the area this evening. There is still a 30-40% chance for gusts to be greater than 30mph through the night into early Tuesday morning along the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau. Some drifting snow will still be possible through the evening and overnight, though visibilities don't look to be affected. A few snow flakes might fall this afternoon into the evening over far northeastern SD and west central MN behind the cold front. These snow flurries don't look to cause any snow to accumulate.

Temperatures have warmed up over central and northeastern SD this afternoon, to be in the teens to 20s over north central and northeastern SD and in the 30s over south central SD. The warmth will not last long as the cold front sweeps through the area this afternoon and evening and another high pressure moves over the area. This will cause the temperatures and wind chills to drop again. Temperatures over the next few days will be 10 to 20 degrees colder than normal. Wind chills during this time are forecast to stay warmer than Cold Weather Advisory Criteria, but will still be in the negative single digits to negative teens. The wind chills will be the coldest Tuesday morning, and will be in the negative teens to negative 25, coldest over north central and northeastern SD.

The high pressure will continue to stay over central and eastern SD through Friday and will help to keep precipitation out of the area. However, Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave low pressure looks to move along the western edge of the high pressure over western SD. This will cause a 20-30% chance for snowfall in between the low and high pressure in western and central SD. Models do vary the location of this snowfall depending on the strength of the high pressure and location of the low pressures, which keeps the chances for snowfall lower. Model ensembles have a 15-30% chance for greater than a quarter inch of snow to accumulate over central SD from this, though most of the snowfall is forecast to occur in western SD.

The high pressure is forecast to move out of central and northeastern SD Saturday as a surface low to the east pushes a warm front through the area. This front will bring precipitation chances to central and northeastern SD Saturday. Because of WAA aloft and temperatures warming at the surface, precipitation types on Saturday will need to be watched in upcoming model runs. Some of the ECMWF members are showing chances for freezing rain and drizzle and others show rain mixed in with the snow over central SD. Behind the warm front, temperatures look to warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal during the weekend, which will be a welcome break from the negative temperatures and wind chills.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at these 4 terminals during this TAF cycle. However, there are MVFR cigs being observed upstream from KATY across southeast ND and northeast SD. Not confident enough to make mention of lower cigs at KATY, some something to watch and amend the forecast as necessary. Northwest winds stay gusty at times into the overnight but will slowly diminish Tuesday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.