textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather concerns on Wednesday with continued above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy northwest winds.

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday, with mostly dry conditions. Warmest on Saturday with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures and increasing chances for moisture early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Latest look at 18Z obs show some areas down around 20 percent humidity scattered about the CWA, although wind gusts are still below 25 mph for much of the area. Will continue to monitor winds/RH this afternoon as there may be some areas flirting with red flag criteria. Due to the marginality of this, still no plans to issue an RFW for the afternoon.

Weak cold front still on track to move south through the CWA this evening. Surface high pressure will build in behind the front with light winds overnight. Pretty decent radiational cooling night setting up again, although models do show some degree of high cloudiness overnight. Given the poor track record of NBM low temps recently, decided to blend in about 50 percent of NBM10 numbers, then even taking a few more degrees off of that in the James valley. All that said, this puts lows in the 40s for most areas, but wouldn't be surprised if a few upper 30s sneak in once again.

The aforementioned cold front does not usher in much in the way of cold air, but the air mass is slightly cooler than what's on top of us today. Highs still expected to be in the 70s on Wednesday, likely flirting with 80 for some locations as well. RH values are forecast to drop to between 25 and 35 percent for much of the CWA, but this is with straight-up NBM dewpoints. Could see a scenario again where dewpoints perhaps drop lower than forecast, which may put some areas closer to 20 percent RH. Wind gusts on Wednesday look to be approaching 25 mph for parts of the northern CWA at least, so fire danger and RFW criteria will be something to pay attention to.

Will then be watching the next push of warm air with a passing warm front on Saturday. 925/850mb temps around +25C with good southerly mixing winds. Grand Ensemble showing the 850mb temps this Saturday is as high as the 95th-99th percentile. Inherited NBM highs on Saturday are generally in the low to mid 80s, with some upper 80s over the southwest CWA. Would not be surprised if these temps are still too cool. NBM90th temps are more into the mid 80s to low 90s over the CWA, which could end up being the reality under the right mixing conditions with mostly sunny skies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.