textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures today about 15 to 30 degrees above normal. Winds shifting from south to southwest at 25 to 35 mph and afternoon humidity down to 15 to 30%. Red Flag warning in effect for most of the area late morning through late afternoon. High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger as well.

- A cold front will move through late today, with a wind shift to north or northwest and increase to 35 to 40 mph. Temperatures dropping some 40 to 50 degrees off daytime highs.

- Little moisture associated with this system. About a 50/50 chance for 0.25" in north central South Dakota, with maybe just a few hundredths in northeast South Dakota.

- Cool dry pattern for the weekend. Milder but still dry for the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface dewpoints are currently in the 30s with a few upper 20s smattered across the central South Dakota. In the east, its closer to widespread mid/upper 30s. These values won't improve with daytime heating and the extremely favorable mixing environment today.

NBM temperatures are still around the 10th percentile, and 3 to 7F below the 50th percentile. Bumped up temperatures a few degrees higher than the NBM because of the southwest component however the forecast highs are still down around the 25th percentile in comparison.

NAM BUFKIT profiles continue to indicate mid level instability with inverted V soundings, above the 0C level. Again, this COULD mean we might see some elevated dry convection related erratic winds. This can sometimes show up in CAM wind fields which, not to be taken literally at the times and locations, but is merely added proof that convective winds are possible. FV3/ARW NAMNest/DNG all show some random blips of erraticness in the wind fields from 23 to 02Z. CAMS do have some low dBZ that may represent this as well.

At the end of March, we also had an area significantly impacted by blowing dust. Granted, overall winds today will fall short of that event, however we do have a localized area that tends to get higher winds (similar to a Sisseton hills downslope) off a bend in the Missouri Coteau near Ree Heights. While we did see around an inch of moisture in early April, its been a weak with mild temperatures since. Dust model is giving some indication that there could be issues. Added mention of dust in the favored portion of central South Dakota.

Winds on the backside of the cold front still topping out in NAM/GFS BUFKIT mixed tool around low/mid 30kt range. Overall chances for moisture continue to shift north and west. NBM probability of 0.25 inches is a little less than 50/50 over north central South Dakota, and 25% for areas west of Aberdeen/Pierre. Not even a 50/50 chance of measuring at Watertown. Needless to say this system doesn't look to bring appreciable moisture to the region, outside some local relief.

Cool snap last through the weekend, with another surge of mild air for the start of next week. With the departing trough and approaching upper low parking off the California coast, that creates a broad ridge over the Rockies and a northwest flow regime for us. Thats typically a low confidence regime for our region especially in the realm of days 5-6-7 especially since this time of year clipper systems usually result in less moisture and dramatic changes in temperatures. Case in point the NBM 25th 75th percentile range in high temperatures is 6-10 degrees Monday, 8-13 degrees Tuesday and 10 to 14F for Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will dominate for much of the period. Winds will be the main concern, increasing with gusts of 20-30kts during much of the daytime hours today.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ005>008-010-011- 016>023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.