textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 35 to 60 percent chance of light rain and snow Thursday, with less than 0.10in of water equivalent precipitation and less than 0.5in of snow accumulation expected.

- High temperatures recover to near normal on Friday before warming to above normal Saturday through Monday. Temperatures over much of the area are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, warmest Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns look to relax a bit Friday and Saturday. But afternoon relative humidity values on Sunday may get close to 20 percent over portions of central and south central South Dakota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies were a mix of sun and clouds. One cold front has moved through the CWA. A second cold front is making its way, southward, into the CWA early this afternoon. Any hints of early precipitation chances have all but dried up this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the 30s and 40s. Northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts 45 to 60 mph are sweeping southeastward into the forecast area. The strong winds are expected to extend over into west central Minnesota by late this afternoon, persisting into the middle of the evening before subsiding. The Wind Advisory has been extended in time and space as such.

Surface high pressure will set up over the region tonight into Thursday. Aloft, a rex block pattern is just off the west coast, with the upper ridge's influencing continuing to spell a period of northwest flow over this region. Models support a shortwave sliding southeastward across the region on Thursday, bringing the potential for some light snow or a rain/snow mix. Beyond that, precipitation chances will have to wait until Saturday/Saturday night, at the earliest, as the low pressure energy in the bottom of the west coast rex block is progged to start working itself back into the mean flow, heading toward the central plains over the weekend. Upper level steering winds are expected to become southwesterly aloft by the end of the day Saturday in response, and this should open the door for a handful of precipitation chances between Saturday afternoon/night and Tuesday of next week. Currently, models depict a break in the precipitation chances around the middle of next week, as shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure work over the Dakotas. As far as any potential precipitation amounts go, the probability of 0.10in or more of water equiv (rain) in any given 24 hour period containing PoPs in the 7-day forecast is less than 35 percent (in most cases it's less than 25 percent).

As for temperatures, there is an ensemble-supported warm-up in store for Friday through Monday, including a 55 to 90 percent chance the high temperature on Sunday will warm to 80 degrees or warmer. There are even a few pockets of 30 to 40 percent probability of temperatures reaching 90 degrees on Sunday.

As for fire weather concerns, after this afternoon's marginal relative humidity considerations (~20-30 percent), the only other day in the 7-day of concern right now shows up on Sunday, when Stanley/Jones/Lyman counties will be, once again, running afternoon humidities between 20 to 30 percent.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Generally VFR conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours. Mixing layer/instability showers are developing and heading toward KMBG. Not sure if they will make it to KABR. For now, have them included in the KMBG TAF. Strong northwest winds should diminish this evening, becoming light and variable by Thursday morning. Light snow or a rain/snow mix is possible on Thursday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006>008-011- 018>021. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.