textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- After a brief period of near normal cold weather on Friday, above normal high temperatures return Saturday and continue into Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week should be cooler while the next weather system moves across the region.

- There is a 35-65% chance of precipitation occurring from late tonight through Friday night. Precipitation may start off as drizzle or freezing drizzle prior to sunrise Friday. The Prairie Coteau of northeast South Dakota over into west central Minnesota stands the best chance of seeing drizzle/rain on Friday before a moving corridor of wintry mix precipitation (freezing rain, sleet and snow) chases the rain eastward into Minnesota Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- There is a 30-60 percent chance of precipitation next Monday night and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

As of 2 PM CST, fog and low clouds have dissipated over the forecast area. Mostly just a mix of sun and high clouds. Temperatures are in the 40s, 50s and 60s (low 70s along I-90 south of Pierre). Winds hold a southerly component over most of the CWA around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The east-west stationary boundary is re-orientating to more of a north-south positioning across the Missouri River valley. West of this boundary, temperatures are notably cooler, with readings in the 40 to near 50 degrees and winds are west-northwest around 5 to 15 mph.

Compared to 24 hours ago, ensembles guidance is shifting Friday's system a bit further east/south in the region as it moves across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota into Wisconsin from late tonight through early Saturday morning. Guidance PoPs, qpf and snow/ice forecast amounts have trended a little bit further south/east this go around, with 35 to 65 PoPs for measurable precipitation continuing (highest across the southeastern half of the CWA). The probability of 2 or more inches of snow in a 24 hour period (mainly Friday/Friday night) is ~25-50 percent and lines up mainly over the southeastern half of the CWA. The probability of 0.01 inch or more of freezing rain in a 24 hour period is ~25-55 percent and shows up the strongest throughout and east of the James River valley late tonight through late Friday evening. Prior to onset of rain/snow producing mid-level clouds, both the NAM and RAP models are very supportive of a 1-2km deep stratus layer capable of generating drizzle or freezing drizzle by 6 AM CST Friday. Have introduced a preliminary Winter Weather Advisory headline for a wintry bag of freezing rain/freezing drizzle then snow where forecast confidence is highest in seeing those p-types play out. Future shifts will likely have to adjust start/end times and areal coverage, but for now, the headline covers the James River valley (Brown/Spink counties) over into west central Minnesota. Still seems like if there is to be plain rain in this scenario it is aligning itself across the Prairie Coteau into west central Minnesota Friday morning/afternoon before the freezing rain/sleet/snow transition zone transitions its way across said region Friday afternoon/evening. The lesser confidence area of the CWA (the counties west of the the James River valley) may also end up seeing a very brief window of freezing drizzle Friday morning. But, the concern over the western zones is mainly for an inch or two of snow potential, combined with sustained northwest winds around 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Pretty strong low level CAA signal showing up there tonight into early Friday morning. It's possible, though, that the strongest winds don't end up overlapping when falling snow is occurring on Friday over the western half of the CWA. At any rate, continued mentioning the minor blowing snow potential Friday into Friday night when there is snow falling.

The 7-day temperature forecast trend and chances for precipitation next Monday night through Tuesday night remain relatively unchanged. The boundary layer should be plenty warm enough to support rain p- type at the onset of early next week's potential precipitation event.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions slowly improving early in the TAF period for all terminals except KPIR (remains VFR). Low cigs and fog still gradually lifting through the early afternoon hours with a period of VFR conditions expected this afternoon into early this evening. A storm system approaching the area from the southwest will bring southerly winds with gusts exceeding 15 to 25 knots tonight becoming northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. IFR conditions return later tonight and into the morning hours on Friday with drizzle/freezing drizzle possible before the rain/freezing rain and snow develops.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM CST Saturday for SDZ008-020>023.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM CST Saturday for SDZ006-007-011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.