textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog across central SD today, although widespread low visibility (one-quarter mile or less) not expected at this time.

- Mixed precipitation (including light freezing rain) possible (20- 30% chance) across far northeast SD and west central MN on Sunday.

- Temperatures Sunday and for much of next week will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with mainly dry conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 846 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

No morning update/changes planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 411 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Still an abundance of stratus across the region, with reinforcements moving south out of ND. A run through obs and web cams show fog is much more spotty compared to 24 hours ago and will maintain patchy fog mention in the grids (mainly central SD) through the morning hours. Will also keep an eye out for patches of freezing drizzle as soundings are somewhat supportive of this, but don't really see any evidence of this as of yet. Flurries may be possible yet this morning as well and will keep an eye out for this.

Much of the day looks to be void of precipitation, but patchy fog may linger across central SD. Clouds will be stubborn to leave today and expecting mostly cloudy/cloudy skies for much of the area.

On Sunday, weak low pressure will move east across the area as southerly winds increase late tonight and into the day. Increasing low-level warm air advection is also noted as 925mb temps rise into the single digits above zero C. In fact, southern SD may even see +10C to +15C temps at 925mb. Current highs on Sunday range from the 30s north, to the 40s and 50s over the southern CWA, but a lot of this will depend on the amount of cloud cover present, which is a bit uncertain at this time. HRRR low-level cloud cover product suggests appreciable clearing from west to east during the day Sunday. Models are also suggesting potential for light mixed precipitation across the eastern CWA within the warm air advection regime ahead of the low pressure. Inserted 20-30% chances for this, with light icing possible in light freezing rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 411 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Will the low stratus and fog be clear by the time we get into next week? The upper pattern features a broad ridge overhead Monday, with split flow developing. The northern stream features a weak trough passage Tuesday, with a cut off low developing off the coast of California. This leaves us with a weak surface pressure pattern, which would give us little impetus to clear out the low level moisture. 850mb temperatures increase to 6 to 9 degrees C, falling just shy of 2 standard deviations above climo. At its warmest, Monday morning, the peek of the inversion features temperatures of about 45 degrees F at 2kft. The warm air aloft is a double edged sword however, with NAM BUFKIT profiles showing a strong inversion for most of the week. Its important to note this this depiction is much shallower in comparison to the ongoing fog/stratus event. That means that if we do develop or retain fog/stratus going into next week, it can be expected to stubbornly persist, but there is a good indication that its not quite as favorable an environment moving forward.

Thus, NBM temperatures (highs and lows) runs about 15 to 25 degrees above normal with lows as mild as 30 degrees above climo (30s and 40s for highs and low 20s for lows).

In regards to the wave Tuesday, as is fairly typical for these weak systems coming across from the Pacific, NAM BUFKIT profiles depict weak ascent and moisture above a dry/mild layer. By the time we get to saturation, lift is lost. Thus, very light overall moisture, probably locally just a few hundreds with little more than a T for most of the forecast area. The only caveat is that timing would have this move through evening/early overnight with near freezing surface temperatures, meaning the potential for light ice and travel headaches. Too far out to nail down locations for specifics and thus any headlines will have to wait.

The one thing to note is an upcoming longwave trough developing/strengthening for late in the week/next weekend. That would be a favorable setup for a Colorado/Southern Plains low but we're well to far out for any level of detail and if the pattern that sets up this week is any analog, low passage will possibly be well to the east and south and the system would pass a by without impact. This is all speculative at this point anyway.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR CIGs continue to affect the region, although KPIR seems to have improved to VFR this morning. Confidence is low on how long this lasts in KPIR, and in fact, lower CIGs are forecast to move back in later in the morning. As a whole, the region will try to improve to MVFR CIGs this afternoon, with potential drops again overnight. Patchy FG/BR also this morning may bring MVFR/IFR VSBY, with potential again for the overnight/Sunday morning period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.