textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day today across south central SD, expanding over north central SD to northeastern SD/west central MN this evening into the overnight.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) over much of northeastern SD this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s with winds out of the northeast to east at less than 10 mph. Winds are expected to move around to be out of the south to southeast after sunrise. There is a 35-50% chance of some showers in central SD early this morning which will move east across the forecast area throughout the day.

Our next chance for precipitation will be today with showers starting in south central SD this morning. The NAM Nest is the most excited about this event as it keeps showers and storms in south central SD until mid afternoon while most other CAMs have a bit of a dry spell during the late morning into the afternoon. The next round moves into north central SD later in the evening, generally after 7 PM CDT. These will move in a generally east to southeast direction, spreading into northeast SD through the late evening and into the overnight hours, potentially even into the early morning hours for east central SD (around Watertown). There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) across most of northeast SD with main hazards of 1.5 inch hail, wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. MLCAPE Sunday evening is around 1000-1200 J/kg, increasing to about 1500 J/kg Monday, where there is also a Marginal Risk with hazards of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Storms Monday look to last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. An area of high pressure moves in for the middle of the week and storm chances return for the end of the week into next weekend.

Temperatures still remain around average for this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Not really anything in the way of smoke is expected for the next couple days. Winds across south central SD could be a little stronger today, gusting up to 30 mph at times.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. Thunderstorms may impact KPIR early this morning and KMBG/KPIR this evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.