textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms with high winds (75+ mph) across central South Dakota this afternoon/evening. Lower risk for severe weather elsewhere.

- Heat Advisory through the weekend, with heat indices from upper 90s to around 110 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Main forecast changes this evening have revolved around POP updates to account for ongoing convection. The more organized group of storms is now moving into the KHON area and is in the right environment to become a more organized line. This line could extend back into our area (Hamlin/Deuel counties) as the system develops. Meanwhile, the cluster of storms further north in the Dewey/Corson county region is less organized, but still monitoring for severe wind gusts given favorable DCAPE values across the entire region. That said, CAMS suggest this activity will diminish as it moves eastward.

The severe thunderstorm watch has been extended to include portions of north central South Dakota, the heat advisory continues unchanged, and the TAF discussion has been updated below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Convection already beginning to fire across western SD, approaching the CWA. Any stronger cores that develop capable of strong wind gusts over 70 mph. Threat for severe weather still appears maximized over central SD late this afternoon into early evening. PoPs have come in a little higher to around 50-70% early this evening. HRRR continues to be the more aggressive of the CAMs in regards to convective areal coverage, but based on what's happening early this afternoon, it may be on to something. Will continue to monitor convective trends and severe potential this afternoon and make changes to messaging/forecast as necessary.

Also watching the high heat and humidity today. Central SD is currently in the low 100s air temperature, while conditions farther east are a bit cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s. Although, higher dewpoints over the east are pushing heat indices close to 100. Will continue the heat headlines with no changes as the advisory will extend into Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered TSRA/+TSRA is ongoing across central South Dakota including the KMBG and KPIR TAF sites. Main concern with any thunderstorm that moves over a TAF site is strong surface winds of 60-80 mph. This line will track east potentially effecting KABR/KATY before 06Z. Will amend TAFs as necessary to account for storm timing/track. Once storms exit the region or dissipate, VFR conditions will prevail.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ003>011- 015>023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ039-046.