textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy (15 to 20 mph) for some areas and still dry Thursday with above normal temperatures.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, peaking with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees on Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions could materialize any day through Saturday.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures Saturday night into Sunday along with increasing chances for moisture Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny. Temperatures are warming through the 60s and 70s. Surface high pressure is over the region, resulting in either light and variable winds (central South Dakota) or 5 to 15 mph northwest winds with occasionally higher gusts. The dryness of the air, combined with sunshine, is yielding a drop in relative humidity into the 25 to 40 percent range.

Ensemble clusters analysis plus deterministic model output suggests this upper level ridge over the west/trof over the east flow pattern will persist through tomorrow/Thursday before things start a-changin'. Thursday night/Friday upper level energy will begin carving out an upper level trof over the west coast that looks to stay put for several days, while pumping up an upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS. This CWA will see upper level steering winds transition from their current northwest flow orientation to more of a southwest flow trajectory heading into Friday. The pattern is expected to become a blocking flow pattern (western CONUS Rex-block configuration) by next Monday, at which point, won't be putting much faith in any solution the models come up with for Monday through the end of the forecast period, as models (including ensembles clustering) tend to not be able to resolve Rex block patterns all that well. There is usually quite a large range in potential outcomes generated by numerical models once a blocking pattern enters into potential flow pattern modeling.

Suffice it to say, temperatures will be quite warm (2+ 850hpa standard deviations above normal) for October, this coming Friday and Saturday. Then, depending on the timing of it all, a cold front pushing through the CWA will turn things sharply colder (1-2 850hpa standard deviations below normal) for Sunday and Monday of next week. Sunday and Monday are also when the current precipitation chances (widespread 30-55 percent) stand out the most in the forecast, when some of this western CONUS upper level trof energy is supposed to lift out onto the central/northern plains.

Beyond that, will be watching fire weather things for the rest of this week into Saturday, as currently forecast afternoon rh values over the next few days are expected to be too high. Did collaborate slightly stronger winds/gusts and lower dewpoints on Saturday against my east and south neighbors. Saturday could end up being a fire weather headline day out ahead of that cold frontal passage. Still plenty of greened up fine fuels across the CWA, what with the marked improvement in drought conditions (compare U.S. drought monitor changes between August 18 and September 29). But, no more corn sweat to help the boundary layer out. When cold fronts come through this time of year, it gets quite dry in the boundary layer in their wake, and ensemble-based rh forecasts tend to over-represent afternoon rh in these season changing regimes. Something to keep an eye on from today through Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High pressure is over the region. Good VFR is forecast over the next 24 hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.