textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air moves in tonight and persists through the weekend. At its coldest, wind chill values bottom out from 30 below to 45 below zero tonight through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Arctic air is spilling southward into the CWA and already seeing wind chill values across far northern areas ranging from 30 below to 35 below. Don't see much improvement in these conditions throughout the day, so went ahead and issued a Cold Advisory across the far north, leading up to the switchover to the Extreme Cold Warning at 00Z this evening. Otherwise, wind speeds are a bit higher than forecast across the eastern CWA and have bumped things up a bit. This is leading to some areas of blowing and drifting snow with visibility reductions at times. Hit blowing snow a bit harder in the grids over portions of the eastern CWA as well.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 433 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The main theme in this period will be the bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills that will begin take up residence across the forecast area later today into tonight and Friday. Before getting to those details, variable cloud cover persists across the forecast area early this morning along with occasional flurries or a brief light snow shower or two. Gusty northwest winds also persist in some areas ranging between 20-30 mph. We may see these winds abate some through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours as sfc ridging across western and central SD nudges a bit east- southeastward. This will be short lived however as gusty north to northwest winds will pick up again later this morning behind an arctic frontal boundary that will push south through the area and unleash some of the coldest air of the season.

Neutral thermal advection will continue until about sunrise to mid morning allowing temperatures to remain fairly steady in the upper single digits to mid teens. Cold air advection will then kick in post fropa and become increasingly significant by midday and afternoon as a 1045mb arctic high pressure system builds in. 925mb temperatures are progged to drop from -10C to -20C this morning to -25C to -30C tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures will slowly fall into the single digits above and below zero through the course of the afternoon. Wind chill values will remain relatively "warm" in the single digits to near 20 below through early afternoon, but then begin to plummet into a 15 to 25 below range the latter half of the afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish this evening but remain stirred enough and combine with temperatures falling into the teens to around 20 below tonight to produce dangerously cold wind chills ranging from 35 below to around 45 below across our north and northeast zones. Therefore, upgraded the Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme Cold Warning for parts of north central/central SD and all of northeast SD and west central MN. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in place across our south central SD zones where wind chill values will bottom out around 30 below. These conditions are expected to persist through Friday morning with gradual improvements anticipated by late morning and early afternoon. Very cold temperatures will persist however on Friday with highs only reaching the 5-10 below zero range with coldest readings across the Sisseton Hills region into west central MN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 433 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The dangerously cold arctic air will remain over the region through the weekend before this coldest of air finally tracks eastward early next week. At the surface, this northwest to southeast oriented large arctic high will be positioned from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley and northward, with the center of the ~1048mb high over the eastern Dakotas through MN Friday evening. By Saturday morning, the region will be on the western side of the high and west of an area of low pressure over the northern Rockies. MSLP is still running 2 to almost 3 standard deviations above climo Friday evening through Saturday morning over the CWA, meaning the climatological percentile relative to 13 Jan-03 Feb is 99% to all time max per NAEFs! These values then decrease west to east with the exit of the high through the weekend. Otherwise, by Sunday another high will swing down from the northwest and over the region.

850/925mb temps Saturday morning are forecast to range between -20 to -25C, coldest over northeastern SD. Temps at 850mb run in the 2-4 percentile range per climo, which is about 1-2 standard deviations below climo per NAEFs. NBM's latest run is similar to the previous run with forecast morning lows ranging in the single digits to teens below zero. We do have more cloud cover to deal with, so less likely for strong radiational cooling to tank them even further. Wind chills will still run in the twenties to possibly thirty below zero range. For Saturday day through Sunday, 850/925mb temps will continue to run in the teens and twenties below zero. Sunday and Monday's morning lows will mainly be in the single digits to teens below zero and windchills in the twenties to potentially around 30 below zero. EFI values for max and min temps range from 0.7 to 0.9 with a shift of tails of zero as highs will range a few degrees below zero to the single digits above zero, with the colder day being Sunday as the secondary high is overhead. Early to the middle part of next week as we sit between this ridge and trough, 850/925mb temps during peak heating will "warm up" ranging in the single digits to teens below zero! This will allow surface temps to "warm" in the lower teens to lower 30s, warmest over south central SD early next week. Colder air will sink southwestward over the CWA by Wed/Thursday bringing a gradual cooldown.

Precip chances are possible Friday evening into early Saturday along the gradient between this high and low over the southern CONUS and a shortwave tracking south/southeastward out of Canada. ENS is trending this storm system a bit northward and tries to bring this light snow potential mainly James Valley and westward while GEFS/GEPS keep chances over central to south central SD. With such dry/cold air over the area, it may be hard to squeeze anything other than flurries elsewhere. With collab from FSD/UNR, we decided to remove the eastward extent of pops, with pops of 15-30% mainly over south central SD. Probability of 0.1" of snowfall is 20-40% over south central SD per GEPS/GEFS with ENS still aggressive at 50-90%, highest south central but covering chances over the entire CWA. So if this ENS trend continues, pops may need to be added back/extended north and eastward.

Early next week a ridge will move in over the western CONUS (and amplify) with the CWA between this ridge and large trough of low pressure to our east, in northwest flow. This ridge really does not move much through next week as of now. Other than slight chance of pops early Wednesday (15%), overall dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patches (FEW/SCT) of MVFR CIGs across the region through the TAF period, some of which may bring a brief -SHSN to KATY this afternoon. Areas of BLSN also affecting KATY and have inserted mention of this into the TAF there as well. Otherwise, gusty northwest surface winds from 25 to 35 knots will subside to rather light winds later this evening/overnight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ004>011.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.