textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected from today through the middle of next week. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to 50s through that period.

- System Sunday through Monday brings moisture to a widespread area. Chances of seeing an inch of rain through Monday ranges from 40 to 75 percent, increasing from west to east across the forecast area.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Monitoring some showers moving from western South Dakota into central South Dakota and the Aberdeen forecast area early this morning. Temperatures will be just above freezing this morning over central and north central South Dakota, but generally expecting a deep enough near-surface above freezing layer to melt any falling snow. However, The near-surface layer isn't be fully saturated, so evaporative cooling will push temperatures closer to the wet-bulb, increasing the chances of freezing temperatures near the surface supporting snow. Regardless of precipitation type, these showers are expected to deteriorate shortly after entering the Aberdeen forecast area this morning, and little to no accumulation is expected.

Rain chances will return this afternoon and stick around through Saturday, mainly over central and northeastern South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A bit better saturation through the profile as well as temperatures above freezing through the night (where precip is expected) means precipitation will have a bit easier time reaching the surface as rain. Generally expecting one to two tenths of an inch of rain through Saturday, with only a stray rumble of thunder or two possible.

The main focus of the forecast is the upcoming long-duration rain coming Sunday into Monday. A shortwave aloft will help develop precipitation on the north side of a low pressure center and bring some moisture into the Aberdeen forecast area. Once again, rumbles of thunder may be few and far between with this system. Ensemble median rainfall totals Sunday through Monday night currently show about 1"-1.5" for nearly the entire forecast area at this point (the exception being north central South Dakota at around 0.75"-1" at this point). Ensemble spread is still quite high however, and NBM 25th/75th spread reaches over an inch over the James River Valley, so there's still quite a bit of room for refinement with future forecasts. At this point, highest probability (around 75%) to see an inch is over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, decreasing to around 40-50% moving west into central and north central South Dakota. Overnight lows will approach freezing, particularly late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Snow will be possible as a precipitation type, but little to no snowfall accumulation is expected.

Behind the passage of the low pressure center to the south, northerly winds will increase, peaking on Monday afternoon. A low- level jet overhead mixing to the surface will be the source of these winds, although there is a bit of a discrepancy between models as to the strength of this jet. Specifically, the GEFS resolves a bit lower (about 5 to 10 knots) of a jet than the Euro and Canadian ensembles. The latter two ensembles sit just shy of 40 knots at 850mb, which sits near Wind Advisory criteria when those gusts are mixed to the surface. Latest NBM guidance shows a roughly 20-40% chance of reaching 45 mile per hour gusts at the surface Monday afternoon, mainly west of the James River Valley.

For next week, ensemble clusters show a fair degree of confidence in the upper-level pattern remaining consistent through the week: An upper-level trough with the base over the Midwest/Great Lakes region. The cold air advection aloft will help to regulate temperatures, keeping the forecast area normal to near-normal through mid-week. This setup is not expected to be very conducive to precipitation, and little is currently expected mid-week beyond some stray 20% PoPs over central South Dakota at times.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at KMBG and KABR over the next 24 hours. At KPIR/KATY there may be some MVFR cigs happening later tonight after 00Z. There may be a few sprinkles/very light rain showers around during the first half of today at KMBG and KPIR. But, rain chances look to really start ramping up by early this evening out in the KPIR area, before spreading north and east overnight into Saturday at KABR and KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.