textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds redevelop overnight, with a peak surge of 55 to 70 mph associated with an Arctic blast. The front may also support a band or two of snowfall and low visibility. The timing of these snow squalls may impact the morning commute. Rapidly falling temperatures could also cause any rainfall still on the roads to flash freeze.

- Over northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota, strong northwest winds with gusts in excess of 55 mph and wrap around snow may also cause periods of low visibility through the day Thursday. Snow accumulations limited to around 1 to 2 inches up across the Sisseton hills.

UPDATE

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 903 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The preliminary cold frontal passage is ongoing across the CWA, currently about to reach the James River valley. Initial surge of winds behind this front have achieved wind advisory strength at times, but the wall of wind warranting a High Wind Warning are still a ways away out in eastern Montana and the far western Dakotas. Expecting these very strong northwest winds (sustained 40+ and gusts 65+mph) to reach central and north central South Dakota by 06Z tonight. In the meantime, rain continues to march its way over into eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The back edge of the rain is just about to Mobridge (an hour or so away from Pierre), and waiting to see the TROWAL snow up in Montana start to make its way down into the western North Dakota and somewhere down over north central/northeast South Dakota by 12Z Thursday. Seeing temperatures falling from the mid 30s to the mid teens in two hours out in eastern Montana behind the strong arctic cold frontal boundary. This strength of cold air advection should be reaching this CWA between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. Wind advisory over the Prairie Coteau was allowed to expire at 03Z.

UPDATE Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

First thing to watch for this evening is an area of light rain which is expected to move eastward across the CWA late this afternoon/evening within the warm sector. Temps are expected to stay mild in the 40s and 30s as the precip moves through, so precip type is plain rain in the grids/forecast.

Main impacts in the forecast show up tonight with the arrival of the strong cold front/strong winds. Timing still looks to be around 06Z across north central SD, then spreading southeast through 12Z. Still seeing some potential in the snow squall parameters for there to be some sort of snow showers or quickly moving banded features that could very briefly reduce visibility below 1 mile with the strong winds.

As for headlines, turned the Winter Storm Watch into a Winter Weather Advisory, highlighting areas of snow and blowing snow late tonight through Thursday morning. PotBlowingSnow stands out the best where current advisory is located, thanks in part to higher overall snow accumulations from 1 to just over 2 inches. That said, if accumulations fail to reach that amount, any visibility reductions from blowing snow will be strictly tied to the intensity of any snow showers that move through. What continues to be frustrating is the low confidence in how expansive in areal coverage the light snow will be this far south behind the departing low pressure system. As for actual wind speeds, would not be surprised if gusts were in the 60 to 70 mph range as the front moves through initially overnight, then with the next surge that shows up later Thursday morning. Although, the highest gusts look to be over central SD.

Friday into next week's upper level pattern generally shows zonal flow, to at times west-northwest as weak ridges move across. What's notable is there are really no signs of any arctic air intrusions, and we may be heading into a somewhat quieter pattern. Highs during the latter half of the 7-day forecast show 20s and 30s for most areas, but across the southwest CWA there may be some periods of 40s or even 50s, especially where there is no snow cover.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Initial cold front is just about in to Minnesota. The secondary (arctic strong) cold front is working southward toward the region, and it is bringing very strong gusty west to northwest winds and some snowfall into Thursday morning. Gusts over 50 knots are expected late tonight through Thursday morning. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) potential is expected to continue for a couple more hours at KATY. The light rain has cleared KMBG, KPIR and KABR, and is expected to clear KATY by 08Z. Areas of -SN will move into north central South Dakota (KMBG) early in the morning (after 07Z), and move across northeast South Dakota (KABR/KATY) into Thursday morning, with periods of reduced VSBY/cigs into MVFR/IFR categories, more so across northern/northeast SD, due to the combination of strong winds and falling snow. If enough falling snow occurs, there could also be blowing snow, which would add to the reduction of visibility.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for SDZ007-008- 011-019>023.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for SDZ007-008-011-019.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Thursday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Thursday for SDZ006-018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ039-046.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ039.