textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures today in the 50s, with a few 60s over south central South Dakota will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Highs Wednesday through at least next Sunday will be around 10 degrees below normal. Highs will be mainly in the 20s, with 30s over south central South Dakota Wednesday through Friday. Wind chills a few of those mornings will be below 0.

- Fog is possible overnight tonight through Monday morning, mainly along the James River Valley and across portions of the Prairie Coteau.

- Winds will increase Tuesday morning, with gusts of 35 to 50 mph Tuesday afternoon. The strongest winds will be over central South Dakota.

- A 30 percent chance of light rain over north central South Dakota Monday evening will expand over the rest of central to northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota by Tuesday morning. Rain will change over to snow during the day Tuesday, before ending Tuesday evening. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for greater than an inch of snow over northeastern South Dakota Tuesday through Tuesday night, with the highest amounts expected over Marshall County. Patchy blowing snow will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening over north central to northeastern South Dakota.

- The combination of little to no precipitation and strong winds will result in high to potentially very high Grassland Fire Danger Index values over portions of central South Dakota on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Updated forecast for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

No major changes for the near short term for the rest of today and into this evening as the forecast will remain dry. Current satellite indicates overall clear skies across the region with a few high clouds over ND and far northeastern SD into west central MN along with some high clouds over southwestern SD/northwestern NE, tracking northeastward. Winds remain light with temperatures ranging in the upper 30s to the lower 50s, warmest over Sisseton (downsloping effect) and across southern SD.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 357 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A surface trough will push across western and central South Dakota during the day today. Dry weather will continue. Temperatures today will again rise into the 50s, with a few 60s over south central South Dakota. While winds will be generally less than 10 mph over central South Dakota, they will be out of the south to southwest with gusts of 20 to 30 mph over eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon. The strongest winds will be over and just east of the Prairie Coteau.

Light winds and ample low level moisture will result the development of patchy fog overnight tonight into Monday morning, mainly along the James River Valley and across the higher elevations of northeastern South Dakota. We'll continue to fine tune the coverage area, but the James River Valley looks to be the most likely area at this time.

A cold front sinking across the area Monday morning will result in slightly cooler air, with highs Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s. The rain we were forecasting for Monday is now expected to stay mainly to our south (clipping only Deuel County Monday afternoon) as the surface low to our south looks to track farther to our south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 357 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The main concern for Monday evening onward is snow and winds on Tuesday and falling temperatures through the week. To start, there will be rain moving into northern SD Monday night that will slowly change over to a rain/snow mix then snow Tuesday morning, with 50- 70% chance for precipitation to occur over northeastern SD during the day Tuesday. There is a 20-45% chance for precipitation to occur over southeast SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA during the day Tuesday. For this area, the transition from rain to a rain/snow mix is forecast to occur Tuesday afternoon then snow late in the afternoon. Snow chances then move out of eastern SD as well as southwest MN, and northwest IA during Tuesday evening. The surface low pressure that will be moving this precipitation into the area has shifted more to the north in the past few models runs, which has caused the higher snowfall amounts to move further to the north than previous forecast. There is a 30-60% chance for greater than an inch of snow to fall over northeastern SD, with the highest chances over the northern Prairie Coteau around 3 inches. Additionally the probability for a half inch or more of snowfall is around or greater than 20% north of US HWY 14, with the chances increasing to the north.

With the stronger low pressure to the northeast and high pressure building to the west of SD, a tight pressure gradient over the state forms Monday night into Tuesday. This tight pressure gradient along with the stronger CAA occurring during this time will help to develop strong winds and get these winds down to the surface. Model ensembles are showing a 30-50% chance for winds to gust greater than 45mph over areas west of the James River Tuesday morning and afternoon. South central SD has the highest chances for these wind gusts, around 50-70% chance for greater than 45mph and 30-50% chance for greater than 50mph. These stronger winds could cause blowing snow to occur Tuesday, which would create hazardous traveling conditions in areas by reducing visibilities.

The cold air advecting in to the area will cause our above average temperatures to drop Monday evening through the week. By Thursday and into the weekend, the temperature will be 5-10 degrees colder than normal, with highs in the low 20s to low 30s and low temperatures in the teens to single digits. High surface pressure is forecast to move over central and eastern SD, northwest IA, southwest MN, and northeast NE Tuesday night. This high pressure will help to keep things dry Wednesday and Thursday. After this, the models have a lot of variability in the next system that could move through the area, creating a lot of uncertainty. An eye will have to be kept on this time period in the next couple of days to see if the models start to come to a better agreement.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period with light winds. However, patchy to areas of fog may develop over portions of the region late tonight through early Monday morning which would bring a drop in visibility at times. Low confidence in exact coverage at this time, but may affect the TAF sites.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.