textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly east central SD late this afternoon into this evening. Small hail will be the main concern with any stronger storms.

- Slightly below normal high temperatures are expected Saturday through much of next week, averaging 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

- Winds Saturday will gust 30 and 40 mph, highest west of the James River. There is a 50% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph Wednesday west of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The current surface weather map shows low pressure over Ontario/Hudson Bay with a secondary low over over CO with a trough extending between the two. An additional low will develop over south central SD, which will slide over across east central SD into MN this evening, assisting in the increased cloud cover and showers and weak thunderstorm activity. The strongest storms will be capable of producing small hail. The cold front will shift east of our forecast area by 09Z Saturday as high pressure over southwestern Canada begins to move into the Northern Plains. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the area of high pressure and mixing to around 750mb in the afternoon will support winds gusting 25-35kts.

The pressure gradient, and surface winds, will be a bit more relaxed Sunday as the surface high gets a little closer as it moves across MT. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday afternoon will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. The surface high will shift across WY Sunday with the large ridge remaining in place over the Northern and Central Plains, and across OK Monday. We'll experience slowly increasing high temperatures through Monday, topping out in the 70s Monday afternoon.

The persistent surface low over southeastern Canada will rotate a trough across ND Monday morning that will sink across our forecast area during the daytime hours. The main impact will be increasing clouds (both daytime cumulus and upper level clouds). There is also a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over northeastern SD/west central MN late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the surface feature is supported by an embedded shortwave in the otherwise northwesterly flow at 500mb.

Our next chance of widespread precipitation (30-60% chance of precipitation) looks to hold off until Wednesday as a system moves in from the northwest - with low pressure crossing the Dakotas. It will be accompanied by another round of gusty winds. There is a 20% chance of wind gusts over 45 mph across and west of the Prairie Coteau, and a 50% chance mainly west of the Missouri River Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will then build in Thursday before quickly exiting to our southeast.

High temperatures this time of year are normally around 80 degrees. Most days, excluding next Friday, will be slightly below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. An isolated showers/weak thunderstorm will be working over KATY airspace when the period opens. But by 01Z, KATY should be rain-free. Winds will increase out of the northwest during the day Saturday, with gusts of 22-30kts ahead of high pressure building in from Canada and MT.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.