textproduct: Aberdeen

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to low 80s, about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. - Temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for the rest of the work week, with dry conditions persisting.

UPDATE

Issued at 1022 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Band of mid-level warm air advection clouds that models had captured nicely yesterday continues to push off to the east and nearly out of the CWA, leaving behind mostly sunny skies for today. No big changes planned for the "today" period as we'll see highs in the 70s to low/mid 80s, with breezy and gusty southerly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Warm advection mid clouds developing on satellite, and forecast in soundings/NBM sky cover. Only about 50mb thickness at around 700mb, so will have a limited impact on the forecast aside from less than full sunshine for some locations in the east today. Local downslope conditions for a brief period tonight with BUFKIT profiles indicating about 40kts in the critical layer, and it will take just before the front coming through, when we briefly achieve a southwest oriented wind, to really take effect. Otherwise just breezy with south flow and 1/2km winds at about 25-30kts.

Tuesday will be dominated by weak low level flow and weak cold advection, with enhanced mixing on a northwest wind component. NBM highs around 80.

The rest of the week remains mild albeit not quite as above normal as the pattern is dominated by a northwesterly flow regime.

For the weekend, currently deterministic EC/GFS/Canadian all depict some form of ridge crosses the north central CONUS followed by a deepening trough over the western CONUS. Southwest flow regime will help generate a low over the northern Rockies followed by a frontal passage. Starting to see some NBM POPs creep into Sat/Sun but its still pretty far off to come to any final conclusions regarding the weekend forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. While low level wind shear is still possible after 03Z Tuesday at ATY, confidence is lower on it occurring than 6 hours ago. As a result any mention of low level wind shear has been removed from the forecast at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.

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