textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwest wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, low relative humidity, and dry cured fuels will create elevated fire weather conditions mainly over north central SD into early this evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for north central SD until 7 PM CDT.

- Temperatures near to below normal, in the 60s and 70s, are forecast Wednesday, and Saturday through Tuesday. Only on Thursday and Friday are temperatures expected to warm back up to above normal in the 80s to low 90s.

- There is a 40 to 65 percent chance of at least a quarter-inch of rainfall happening Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

At 12 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny. Temperatures are warming through the 70s and 80s. Northwest winds are increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph, and relative humidity is falling through the 20 to 40 percent range. Red Flag Warning conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of hours across north central South Dakota.

A Rex block upper level pattern is taking shape well off the west coast, and is progged to persist for pretty much the entire 7-day forecast period. Closer to home, this pattern is helping set the stage for a considerably more laminar flow pattern over the northern plains. It's not going to be completely zonal aloft throughout the period, but certainly more fast-moving/transient of features, both upper lows and upper ridges.

High pressure is in place at the surface for the next several days, interrupted at times, briefly by cold frontal passages. Friday's cold frontal passage may happen when enough Gulf moisture has returned to the region to support thunderstorm development along the boundary. Current timing places any thunderstorms over this CWA close to the Minnesota/South Dakota border Friday afternoon/evening, with storms moving quickly off into Minnesota. SPC is keeping a close eye on this potential scenario (a 15% severe outlook coverage area currently drawn over the far eastern forecast zones in the SPC Day 4 Outlook). Otherwise, models appear to be zero'ing in on late Saturday night through Monday night for the next chance for precipitation. Models/ensembles heights differences and precipitation clusters analyses indicate a couple of upper lows could work through the region at that time. There is currently a 40 to 65 percent chance of at least 0.25 inches of precipitation (an increase in probabilities from yesterday) over this CWA in the ensembles output for Sunday into Monday.

The 7-day forecast has become dominated by near to below normal temperature potential, with the flow pattern aloft more inclined to be drawing cooler/drier air, with routine, into this region out of Canada. Only Thursday and Friday appear to have the potential for temperatures warmer than normal, when a transient upper level ridge works across the northern plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR flying weather is forecast over the next 24 hours on west- northwest winds. This afternoon those winds will be up around 15 to 25 knots with gusts over 35 knots at times. Later tonight into Wednesday morning, northwest winds should settle down to something more like 5 to 15 knots.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-034. MN...None.