textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog are in place over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this morning. Some fog may be dense, with visibilities down to a quarter of a mile or lower at times. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 1 PM CDT today.

- Cooler temperatures will persist in the coming days. Expect highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s through at least the middle of the week. Overnight lows may drop below freezing Wednesday and Friday mornings.

- Some light showers move overhead today. Generally a few hundredths of an inch are expected, but localized areas along the North Dakota/South Dakota border may see as much as a tenth of an inch of rain. Additional rain chances come late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A low stratus deck is in place over the forecast area early this morning. Northeasterly flow is also present, creating upslope flow along the Prairie Coteau. Between the two, it has not been difficult for fog to form over that area, and as a result a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for parts of northeastern South Dakota. Further expansions of the Advisory will be possible depending on how other areas evolve this morning. Due to the persistence of cloud cover after sunrise today, fog may take a while to burn off, so currently the Advisory is in place through 18Z.

Rain showers are also moving into north central South Dakota this morning, although mainly just some light drizzle as of ~0630Z. Showers will progress slowly east through the day today, mainly over north central and northeastern South Dakota as well as western Minnesota. Rain rates will remain fairly light, and only a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch at most is expected. Some additional chances for rain showers will be present over central and north central South Dakota Tuesday as well, but once again not expecting any substantial rainfall, just a couple hundredths at the most.

Chances for rain return once again Wednesday evening into Thursday. An upper-level low sitting over the western CONUS will move slowly north, but model trends show a more progressive evolution to the east (keeping the upper-level low to the south) rather than previous runs where the low moved further north. As a result, ensemble guidance continues to back off on the totals Wednesday into Thursday. Expectations now are just a few hundredths of accumulation in total. Latest NBM probabilities of seeing a tenth of an inch or more through the event sit at 20-50%, increasing as you move from north to south across the forecast area. These numbers are down from the 40-60% that was in place 24 hours ago.

Temperatures through the work week are expected to be near-normal. As a result, overnight lows will drop into the mid-30s to perhaps even freezing over the next few days. This will mainly occur over the northern parts of the forecast area, but widespread frost will be possible, particularly on Wednesday and Friday mornings. Chances for a hard freeze (28 degrees or lower) are fairly low through the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR/LIFR CIGs are forecast to persist across the region through the morning hours, with slight improvements to MVFR during the afternoon hours. Clouds forecast to remain in place all the way into Monday night. Areas of FG/BR overnight through Monday morning will bring areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY. Highest potential for LIFR VSBY at KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007- 008-011-020-021-023. MN...None.