textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- West to northwest winds will increase on Friday once again with the strongest gusts remaining along and north of US Highway 14. Patchy blowing dust will be possible again across northern South Dakota.

- The combination of low relative humidities and strong winds on Friday will lead to another day of elevated fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area.

- Rainfall chances increase to 70-90 percent by late in the weekend into early next week as an active weather pattern sets up.

UPDATE

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Winds for all stations have dropped below 25 mph. Humidity is only slightly rebounded, but without the winds staying up temperatures will cool and humidity should come up. Looking into Red Flag for the day Friday, still looks good along and north of the Highway 14 corridor. Along the I90 corridor, winds are substantially more marginal if that, and as such have preemptively cancelled the Red Flag. Greater details in regards to Friday winds in south central SD in the morning AFD.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A cold front is currently working east across far northeast SD and west central MN with gusty south to southwest winds out ahead of this boundary. We did have some rain associated with this feature earlier in the day but most of the precip has shifted out of our area into MN. Seeing some low level CU developing on the back edge of a clearing line working toward the James Valley. A few CAM solutions indicate some of this could materialize into a couple of showers and storms across our far eastern zones late this afternoon and early evening, but should quickly exit out of the forecast area by that early evening time frame. Strong winds today have kicked up patchy to areas of blowing dust today with visibility reductions. Some of this has settled down in areas that have seen winds subside in association with the fropa. But, parts of central/north central SD are seeing gusts approach 30 mph and our Dust RGB satellite is picking up on more dust coming back into north central SD. So, until wind subside this evening, blowing dust will remain possible.

After a less windy overnight, gusty west to northwest winds will develop again by mid to late morning Friday. A sfc high pressure ridge will start to try nudging to parts of our western/southwestern zones through the day, but a tighter gradient farther north will mean gusts will range from 30-40 mph. The strongest gusts look to set up along and north of US Highway 14. Temperatures warming through the 70s to low 80s will drive afternoon RH values to 20 percent or less across most of the forecast area. The combination of this and the strong winds will once again create critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect not only through the night, do to little recovery in RH values, but for most of the day Friday into early Friday evening. As winds slowly subside from south to north late in the day, these critical fire weather conditions will improve.

Sfc high pressure is then progged to become more of an influence on our conditions for Saturday. Much lighter winds are expected for a good portion of the day. Although, as the high slides farther north and east later in the day, return east-southeast flow will set up across parts of south central SD with some increase in wind speeds by late afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail through the first half of the weekend, but then changes will be lurking beyond that. A pattern shift will take place as an upper trough shifts southeast out of the Pac NW and digs into the central and southern Rockies. This will lead to southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains by Sunday. Guidance progs lead shortwave activity to move into our region Saturday night and early Sunday. An increasing unstable air mass will gradually set in as low to mid level moisture values increase. A 70-90 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop overnight through the day on Sunday. Enough severe weather ingredients look to come together on Sunday for parts of our forecast area to lead to the possibility of seeing some strong to severe storms, especially across our south and eastern zones. SPC severe weather outlook for Day 4 indicate a 15% probability of seeing severe weather generally from around the Pierre area north and east toward the Aberdeen area and points south and east. Guidance currently does prog the best combination of instability and shear to be just off to our southeast across southeast SD and southwest MN. Regardless of the severe weather potential, some beneficial rains could be on the way with this system. NBM probabilities of seeing at least a half inch of rain or more in a 24 hour period between early Sunday morning and early Monday morning range between 60-80 percent. Certainly a system to keep an eye on the trends the next couple days, not only for the severe potential but for the much needed rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds will be predominantly out of the west.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>011-015>017-021. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ018>020-022-023-033>037. MN...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.