textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be some scattered rain showers through the morning into the afternoon over central and portions of northeastern South Dakota.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (sustained winds of greater than 30 mph and/or gusts of 45 mph or more) is between 60-80% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is Slight (2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather Saturday. Confidence is low on storm development due to very warm temperatures above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible.

- Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week. Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the 60s. This will push heat index values into the mid to upper 90s with increased risk for heat related illnesses.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered rain showers have moved in over portions of north central SD and these showers will continue to move and spread over parts of central and northeastern SD through the day. Most of these showers will die down during the afternoon, however there could be some isolated showers and weak thunderstorms that could develop over far northeastern SD during the afternoon into the early evening.

An upper-level ridge will be moving over SD and areas to the east overnight into Saturday as an upper-level low pressure moves in over the Pacific northwest. This will help to develop high surface pressure over MN and low surface pressure to the west. With SD stuck between the two pressure centers, the winds will start to pick up over western and parts of central SD overnight Friday and then will spread east Saturday over northeastern SD. Areas west of the James River could see southeastern winds that get into wind advisory criteria Saturday afternoon, as there is a 60-80% chance of sustained winds at or more than 30 mph and a 45-65% chance of the winds gusting up to and over 45 mph.

The southeasterly wind will help to bring warm moist air to SD Saturday. This moist air in addition to some directional wind shear as a surface low pushes in, as well a far bit of instability, will help to create an environment conductive to severe storm development. However, multiple models are showing higher CIN values Saturday afternoon and evening which will likely cap the potential for severe storms to develop. The NAM and RAP models have a few hours during the evening and overnight where there are lower CIN values, during that time something might be able to develop or move into north central SD from a more conducive environment to the north or west. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms over Corson county Saturday with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over the rest of central and portions of northeast SD. These storms have a risk for all hazards.

The warm temperatures will continue to stay over the state through the weekend into the early work week. Sunday could see temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than normal and 10-20 degrees warmer than normal Monday, with the warmest temperatures over eastern SD and west central MN. Temperatures Sunday and Monday over northeastern SD will be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees with heat index values potentially getting up into the low 100s. These temperatures will increase the danger of heat related illnesses and cause problems for those sensitive to the heat and without access to cooler areas, especially since the lower temperatures will only fall in the upper 60 to mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at most locations. The exception is PIR, which is expected to fall to MVFR from 14-17Z Friday. Winds will remain elevated through the Friday night hours over central SD, with gusts of 20-25kts at PIR/MBG.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.