textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow expected to slide southeast Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected northeast of a line from Miller to McIntosh.

- Another round of light accumulating snow moves in on Wednesday with generally less than an inch expected.

- Gusty northwest winds develop on Wednesday ranging from 25-40 mph with the strongest winds expected across central South Dakota. Blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be possible.

- Very cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills expected Thursday through Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1118 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 842 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Only adjustment to the tonight period forecast was to shave several degrees off tonight's low temperature forecast, as current conditions are already at or near forecast lows. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

An area of lower clouds is sinking south this afternoon. This has curbed what little daytime heating there was as it looks like the clouds will last until sunset for most of the region. However, given that there is clearing behind this swath, it may mean overnight lows are not low enough as radiational cooling establishes itself. Tricky temperature forecast to say the least! Still expect lows at least in the single digits below zero east of the Missouri River, but can't rule out double digits below in spots.

Main weather concerns begin to move in Tuesday. A clipper system/shortwave trough slides southeast across South Dakota through the day tomorrow bringing 1 to around 2 inches of snow northeast of a line from Miller to McIntosh.

The upper trough digs in on Wednesday with increasing northwest flow aloft and an enhanced jet mixing 65 kts down to 700 mb in central and western SD. Expect winds to increase at the surface with 40 kt gusts west of the James valley. The winds will combine with generally an inch or less of new snow to lower visibilities in blowing snow. With relatively fresh snow on the ground, as well, will need to evaluate the potential for blowing snow outside of new showers.

Surface high pressure builds in on Thursday with significant caa in an upper trough digging into the northern Plains. H85 temps fall into the -30s Celsius Thursday night as the 1051 mb high slides southeast. This will bring some of the coldest air of the season thus far that will linger into Sunday morning. Highs on Friday may only reach into the negative teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Clear skies over KABR/KATY, while KPIR/KMBG continue to have some VFR cigs overhead. VFR conditions are forecast at all four terminals through appx 18Z Tuesday. By 18Z, sub-VFR cigs/visbies in snow are establishing at KMBG, before it spreads over the remaining three terminals during the remainder of the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.