textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost development expected Sunday morning and Monday morning with localized freezing temperatures possible. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Sunday morning across portions of north central to northeastern SD into west central MN.

- High temperatures Monday through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s, highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal.

- Fire weather concerns return for much of the work week due to dry and warmer weather and periods of stronger winds, particularly Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations gusting to around 50 mph are forecast Tuesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 858 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

No changes to the Frost Advisory for the overnight hours, and little changes to lows in general. Looking for lows in the low/mid 30s for the advisory area, but would not be surprised if some areas sneak closer to 30 or even the upper 20s. All depends on cloud cover. There are indications of increasing mid/high level clouds late tonight, so this will be key in just how low temperatures get. Due to this, confidence is somewhat low as to whether or not a more widespread freeze (and potential headline upgrade) will occur, so will leave things alone at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A large area of high pressure over much of central Canada continues to push an in increasing ridge south across the Dakotas and MN.

The starting of the spring growing season and a cold night under high pressure will combine to create frost to freeze conditions over much of the area. The Frost Advisory for overnight tonight into Sunday morning has been expanded to include Dewey and Stanley Counties of central SD. Temperatures may briefly fall below freezing across portions of northern SD from the MO River to Sisseton.

Temperatures will be similar Sunday, but with lighter winds and fewer clouds as the ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the area. By 00Z Monday the 1024mb surface high will reside from southern Manitoba and Ontario through northeastern ND and northern ND. The surface high will reside across the Upper Great Lakes Monday morning, with increasing south-southeasterly winds through the day over our area as a trough of low pressure nears from the west. Winds will gust 25-35mph, and not relax much Monday night.

Fire weather concerns return Monday and Tuesday as dry weather continues and winds increase. The main concern will be Tuesday east of the Missouri River. On the Ensemble Situation Awareness table, ECMWF extreme forecast index values are over 0.6 for our northeastern counties, and over 0.7 for our 4 farthest northeastern counties. Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of northeastern SD Tuesday. The current forecast calls for wind gusts around 10kts higher than what we experience Monday, so 35-45 mph (strongest east of the MO River).

We'll be monitoring the passing cold front Monday evening into the early overnight hours for not only a wind shift that could be a concern for any ongoing fires, but for the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over northeastern SD/west central MN. Limited precipitation is expected over the next week.

After lighter winds Wednesday (gusts 15-30 mph strongest west of the MO River), stronger winds will return again Thursday. Winds will be out of the south with gusts of 35-45 mph. Grassland Fire Danger Index values will rise into the high to very high for much of the area Tuesday and again Thursday. Given the strong winds, blowing dust may also be a concern. From Monday through the rest of the work week, relative humidity values are forecast to fall into the teens to low 20% range west of the James River, and into the 25-35% range east of the James River.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037. MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ039-046.