textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Next clipper will most likely (60-90% chance of occurrence) be preceded by a period of light freezing rain Tuesday morning before temperatures warm above freezing Tuesday afternoon across northeast SD/western MN.

- Northwest winds Tuesday afternoon and evening could gust in excess of 50 to 60 mph across central and north central South Dakota. 45 to 55 mph gusts for the northeast Tuesday evening/overnight.

- By the end of the week, colder air is expected to move in. High temperatures will be near to just above 0 degrees, with overnight lows as low as the teens below zero. Wind chill values Friday and Saturday morning could be as low as -20 to -30 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes planned.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Cleared out in central/north central South Dakota, and winds have shifted to the southwest. Focus for the afternoon remains on the downslope potential for the Sisseton hills region. Peever has shifted around to the southwest now as well, though winds remain weak. HRRR still shows in the 2 to 4 pm timeframe winds will increase to about 40 mph, lasting through about 8 pm before weakening. Reissued the SPS for these downslope conditions later this afternoon.

Focus shift to tonight/Tuesday morning. CAMS and NBM are fairly confident in regards to moisture moving in, and profiles/NBM continue to support freezing rain as the predominant p-type before temperatures warm above freezing. NBM/HREF also showing confidence in this warming, with just a 1-3 degree range between the 25th/75th percentiles.

The focus then shifts towards high wind potential. 1/2km winds are about 50kts, and in BUFKIT low level profiles cool in the cold advection regime quickly after 21-03Z timeframe, with 60kts at the top of that mixed layer (about 1km). High wind warning has been issued in regards to these winds.

But when it comes to wrap around, still not very confident we will see enough to present a blowing snow hazard. NBM QPF is only a few hundreds, after midnight post peak wind speeds. In regards to the blizzard possibility, according to the blowing snow model, we'll need to see snowfall rates exceeding 1/2" per hour to get visibility to 1/4 mile at temperatures at about 30F, which is not a rate we are seeing from guidance. Additionally, from NAM BUFKIT soundings, cold advection low level profiles with moisture at the top of the mixed layer is still warmer than the dendritic growth zone, meaning low moisture/clouds may be too warm still to generate snow. GFS BUFKIT profiles do have the snow, but by the time we get wrap around 03-07Z mixed winds are dropping off rapidly.

The other question is will the snow on the ground be blowable? Rain and mild temperatures are expected to cap the snow with a crust, though there is some discussion as to whether 60 mph gusts will be capable of breaking up this crust. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen and this is something we will have to watch for tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Wednesday morning starts a rather busy long term period with some much colder air moving into the region. Along with the colder air, we have several opportunities for snow this week and potentially into the weekend. And, along with the colder air and snow, we have some good strong winds. Quite the combination of weather phenomena in store.

To start, we have several shots of upper level energy move through the region this week. The first will be Wednesday morning. This is behind the Tuesday low. Winds will be diminishing through the early morning hours and we are left with just much colder air. Temperatures at 6 PM Tuesday at 850mb are between -1 and 2 degrees C. By 6 AM Wednesday, 850mb temps have dropped to -12 to -13 degrees along and east of the James River. The second shot of energy moves in early Thursday morning as another clipper system. This will bring in some slightly warmer air and also another chance for some snow. At the moment, we aren't expecting a lot of snow, chances for more than an inch are highest over northeastern SD at between 40 and 60% and chances for more than 2 inches is around 40%. Some light snow could linger into Friday morning. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the coldest of the period behind the Thursday clipper with 850mb temps forecast to be in the upper teens to 20s below zero C. This translates to surface temps in the single digits, potentially single digits below zero for far northeastern SD. Another shortwave moves across on Saturday bringing potential for another inch or so of snow. High pressure moves through early Sunday morning ahead of yet another trough reaching down from Canada. This will bring winds from the south and a shot of WAA to bring us back up into the teens across most of central and northeastern SD.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Conditions will deteriorate late tonight through Tues morning as MVFR/IFR cigs spread over the region with the next winter storm. Frza will be a concern east of the Missouri in the morning before temps rise. Then westerly winds increase with gusts of 40 to 50 kts at KMBG and KPIR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-018.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ003-015.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Tuesday to 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-033>037- 045-048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Tuesday for SDZ005>008-010-011-018>023.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ019>023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ039- 046.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ039-046.