textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south central late this afternoon into this evening and far northeastern SD late this evening into the early overnight hours. Winds to 75 mph and hail to 2" in diameter will be possible with the strongest storms.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 25 to 35 mph Tuesday afternoon, with dry weather continuing through the day Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Our weather over the next 12-15 hours will be highly dependent on the cold front currently set up over western Corson and Dewey Counties. It will continue to slide east across the forecast area, draped south from the main surface low pushing across south central Canada. Expect the cold front to cross central South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening hours, and over far northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota overnight into early Tuesday morning. Winds will turn out of a west to northwesterly direction behind the front, with the most dramatic/quick change in wind direction this afternoon into the early evening hours across north central SD. While most locations will remain dry, there is a 30-60% chance of showers or thunderstorms with the passage of the cold front. A few stronger storms mainly south will be capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail or wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. The highest threat area for these stronger storms are over south central South Dakota south of Pierre, and north of a line from Aberdeen to Sisseton.

Dry high pressure will then build in from the western Canada through the day Thursday. The result will be much drier and windier conditions Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will fall into the 25-40% percent range Tuesday, lowest over central South Dakota. Winds out of the northwest will increase, and gust 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds will be over northern SD, with the lightest winds south of Pierre. Grassland Fire Danger Index values will jump back into the high category for much of central SD Tuesday afternoon.

Highs will remain mainly in the 80s through the period, with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Our next chance of precipitation returns Thursday night, with the highest chance (20-50%) Friday night into Saturday. This aligns with our next low chance of strong to potentially severe storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. However, SCT-BKN025 ceilings will linger at ABR for the next hour or 2. The main concern will be with any shower/thunderstorms that may develop near/south of PIR 00-05Z Tuesday, near/north of ABR 02-06Z Tuesday, and near ATY 08-11Z Tuesday. Given the highest probability of occurrence at ATY, a PROB30 was included there. Otherwise, a continued dry forecast was mentioned.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.