textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Across the Sisseton hills downslope areas, the Saturday weather event should bring strong south winds of 25-35 mph with gusts in excess of 45 mph during the afternoon and evening, potentially while it is snowing. Blowing snow is expected.

- Precipitation expected to be primarily snow Saturday throughout and east of the James River valley with snow accumulations on the order of 1 to 2 inches. Throughout and west of the Missouri River valley, precipitation begins as snow but ends up mixing with or changing to freezing rain and sleet with light ice accumulation possible. Drifting to occasionally blowing snow is expected where it snows Saturday and Saturday night.

- Near to above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the 7 day forecast.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

At 2 PM CST, skies are sunny to mostly sunny and winds have an east component to them around 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures are generally running in the single digits above zero this afternoon.

Another low pressure system is forecast to drop southeastward through the region from late tonight through early Sunday morning, bringing a WAA-forced band of precipitation across the CWA. Precipitation is expected to fall as snow or a mixture of snow and freezing rain/sleet throughout central and north central South Dakota from the early morning to mid-afternoon timeframe on Saturday. Probabilities for snowfall center right around 0.5in to 1in of snow and anywhere from a trace to nearly a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this potential mix of winter precipitation types.

Further east into the James River valley region over into west central Minnesota, the precipitation band should be falling as snow during the late afternoon through early overnight hours. Probabilities center right around 1in to 1.5in of snow accumulation. There is another scenario where the low level WAA nose over-reaches farther east than currently forecast, in which case, sleet and freezing rain could occur as far east as the James River valley. A scenario that will need some further scrutiny, moving forward. Also, that downslope wind signal in low level WAA/thermal inversion and semi-favorable conditions in/above the mean state critical layer still points toward the potential for sustained winds within the downslope wind corridor of 30 mph or higher, and gusts of 45 mph or higher. If this pans out while it is snowing, it won't really matter whether or not there is pre-existing snow on the ground to blow around. The combination of falling snow and winds that strong would generate isolated/mainly rural pockets of significantly reduced visibility in falling/blowing snow. Issued a Special Weather Statement for this potential all along the downslope wind corridor. Elsewhere, low level thermal inversion coverage should be strong enough to hold down sustained southerly winds and gusts on Saturday to something on the order of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. And, this does activate some ground level drifting to occasional actual blowing snow on Saturday in locations other than the lee-of- the-Prairie Coteau.

Also, it appears as though the low level WAA pattern persists all the way across the CWA Saturday night, such that some of the warmest temperatures (a non-diurnal temp trend) for "Saturday" in and east of the James River valley probably don't end up happening until between 6 PM CST Saturday and midnight CST Sunday, with additional warming possible between midnight and 6 AM CST Sunday. Low level CAA/pressure rises don't appear to get going until during the daytime hours on Sunday. So, there is the potential for some non- diurnal (cooling) temperatures throughout the morning and afternoon on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The entire period continues this unchanged pattern of upper ridge in the west/upper trof in the east. So, whenever there is a low pressure system working through the region, it is moisture- starved/not a whole lot of precipitation potential, as it works northwest to southeast over the Dakotas and Minnesota. One such low pressure system is forecast to work through late Monday night through Tuesday (still some 20-30 percent PoPs for this). Otherwise, the extended forecast period is dry and expected to showcase some above normal temperatures (ENS 850hpa S.A. anomalies table pointing to 850hpa temperatures between 1-2 standard deviations above normal throughout the extended forecast period. The lone caveat here being that in this northwest flow pattern there will still be the occasional back-door cold frontal passage that briefly interrupts the low level warming pattern, before WAA pushes back, scouring out the low level cold air over time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A layer of MVFR stratus is just about clear of KMBG/KPIR. Once clear, these two terminals join KABR/KATY in good VFR/skc conditions through most of the TAF valid period. Just monitoring for some afternoon sct-bkn025 strato-cu that could develop and potentially produce a few flakes of snow/light snow showers. Later Saturday morning, KPIR/KMBG are expected to get into some light snow, probably mixed with or changing to freezing rain/sleet. Southerly winds are also forecast to develop/increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. Eventually (beyond the current TAF valid period), the precipitation will shift over into the KABR/KATY terminals where it is expected to fall mainly as snow.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ to 5 PM CST /4 PM MST/ Saturday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ to 2 PM CST /1 PM MST/ Saturday for SDZ033>035-045-048.

MN...None.