textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather today over the Missouri River Valley. Main hazards will be large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 75 miles per hour.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as 10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s over the weekend and into the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The short term portion of the forecast is complex and challenging. Continuous convection from central SD northwest into southeast Montana from this morning has caused an abundance of cloud cover over the western half of the CWA. Marginally strong severe developed over east-central SD earlier this morning within a zone of modest instability ahead of a surface low pressure system.

The current thinking is more robust convective develop later this afternoon over the Black Hills, and perhaps northeastern Wyoming where there are remnants of outflow boundaries and at least some destabilization. The storms may organize into a bowing MCS and track south-east during the evening and overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats with the bowing MCS. It is entirely possible these storms track south of this CWA, or perhaps click the southwest portion. A bit further northern track may cause localized flooding in Jones, Lyman, and Stanley counties due to recent heavy rainfall.

Another scenario to monitor is convection across southwestern ND. A few CAMS suggest this convection will track mostly eastward, mainly north of the state line. However, a slight deviation southward will lead to more widespread coverage. Overall, went conservative on pops tonight into Saturday morning, mainly due to the current state of the and some support from CAMS.

As of now, Saturday and Sunday appears mostly dry with perhaps a few showers and storms over the eastern CWA on Saturday. The weather pattern overall remains active through next week with additional rounds of thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While prevailing VFR conditions are expected, showers and thunderstorms may limit flying conditions. KPIR has the best potential of being impacted by thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Overall, have reduced the mention of thunderstorms in the valid taf set.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.