textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing south to southeast wind gusts of 30-50 mph tonight into Thursday will help contribute to patchy to areas of blowing dust along with Red Flag Warning conditions.

- A cold front will swing through the area on Thursday switching winds from a southwest to a northwest direction from west to east and remain gusty until early evening.

- The combination of low relative humidities and strong winds on Friday will lead to another day of elevated fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 749 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

As of 8pm, skies were overall clear with high clouds over the region pushing eastward. Along and west of the Missouri River, we are starting to see RH increasing, ranging between the mid twenties to around 30 percent where the RFW continues until 10pm CDT. However, east of the Missouri River RH ranges in the upper teens to the lower/mid twenty percent range. Winds remain out of the southeast with the highest gusts over central SD with gusts ranging from 25-35 mph. Through the overnight, RH will recover and range between 45-65% by 12Z Thursday. Winds will also continue to increase eastward over the CWA late this evening and overnight. Elevated fire danger and blowing dust concerns are expected Thursday. No major changes made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A ridge of high pressure remains splayed out from north to south across eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon. This has promoted light winds in our east while a southerly winds is already kicked in across parts of central SD and turning gusty at times. RH values here are approaching 20 percent and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect into this evening for our west river zones.

As the sfc high drifts away, a tightening pressure gradient will continue to develop between that high and a sfc frontal boundary that's progged to enter the western Dakotas early Thursday. Increasing southeast wind gust overnight, possibly as strong as 40- 50 mph will be possible. Patchy blowing dust will be possible overnight due to these winds. The strongest of these winds will shift east into northeast SD and west central MN closer to sunrise and persist at least to 35-45 mph through the afternoon. These winds will continue to promote patchy to areas of blowing dust, especially from the James Valley and points east on Thursday. Temps warming into the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday will help to drive afternoon RH values into a 15-25 percent range. All this coming together has led to the issuance of Red Flag Warning across our entire forecast area. A couple caveats come with this however. Relative humidity values across far northeast SD and west central MN may remain elevated and above RFW criteria. But, with the strong winds and dry sfc conditions in place, exercised caution with the headline across our eastern zones. And, the passage of the cold front and it's timing will have a play on when/if Red Flag conditions begin and end across the CWA. Strongest wind gust across parts of south central SD could start to drop off by mid-late afternoon but remain elevated into the evening across north central SD. Strongest gusts in our east will begin to fall off by early evening.

Decoupling winds Thursday night will allow speed to diminish overnight. However a tight northwest flow gradient will maintain itself into Friday. This will lead to another windy day with gusts on the order of 35-45 mph. Temps warming once again to around 80 degrees during the afternoon will drive RH values down into critical territory(below 20 percent). A Fire Weather Watch remains posted for the entire forecast area on Friday do to these conditions. High pressure should finally exert enough influence on the area on Saturday leading to a lighter wind forecast, although RH values still dry out by afternoon to between 20-25 percent. This should be the last day of any fire wx concerns as a pattern shift moves into the region by the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Lee cyclogenesis begins to take place in response to an upper trough digging across the western CONUS. Guidance progs an organized low pressure system to slide out into the Plains Sunday into early Monday. Our area should begin to see increasing chances for rainfall by this time...much needed rainfall for most of the forecast area. NBM probabilities of seeing a half inch or more in a 24 hour period between Sunday and Monday mornings range between 50-70 percent. Probs for seeing at least one inch or more in this same time frame range from 30-50 percent. So, potentially some beneficial rains could be on the way by early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast through Thursday evening. Winds continue to be breezy over KPIR/KMBG with winds out of the southeast with gusts between 20-30 mph. Increasing winds will continue to spread eastward over the region through this evening and overnight. All terminals could see a period of low level wind shear early Thursday morning. A cold front will start to push through the area on Thursday morning with southwest winds turning west/northwest at KPIR/KMBG by the mid morning and winds turning westerly at KABR/KATY by Thursday midday/ afternoon. Of note, due to the windy conditions and ongoing dry weather, patchy to areas of blowing dust is possible this evening through the TAF period which may reduce visibilities at times.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ006>008-011-018>023. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-015-033-045. Red Flag Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045- 048-051. MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039- 046. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MNZ039-046.