textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may develop overnight tonight into early Friday morning. The main areas of concern will be over parts of north central South Dakota and the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills. Visibility may drop to a mile or less at times.

- Rain showers move over the forecast area Friday evening into Saturday morning. There is a 10 to 40 percent chance to see a tenth of an inch of rain through that time frame.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Sunday night through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains. While there is low confidence in timing and amounts at this time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 30 to 60 percent, with the highest over south central South Dakota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light rain showers continue to traverse across north central and into northeastern South Dakota this afternoon. A layer of dry air in the lower levels means that rain has struggles to reach the surface at times, but the strongest showers have dropped a trace to a couple hundredths of rain in their wake. Expectations for the next couple of hours is that these virga to occasional light showers will continue to struggle to get rain to the surface as they push north and east this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, there are some signals for another round of fog development. Confidence is highest over parts of north central South Dakota where full humidity recovery is expected for an extended period tonight. Weak easterly flow will also help due to gradual terrain increases providing a bit of an upslope effect in that area. Coverage of fog is expected to be fairly patchy, but there is some signal for visibility to drop below a mile at times. The other potential area of concern would be localized areas on the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau, where upslope impacts once again assist in fog formation. Confidence is perhaps a bit lower in that area, but visibility may still drop to a mile at times.

The next round of precipitation will move into the area Friday into Saturday. Showers will move up into central South Dakota during the late afternoon to evening hours before spreading to the entire forecast area overnight and exiting to the east Saturday morning. In general rain rates with these showers will be light, and most areas will see just a few hundredths. Latest probabilities to see a tenth of an inch range from 10-40 percent, increasing as you move from north to south across the forecast area. Can't entirely rule out a weak thunderstorm out of this system, but a mid-level inversion around 750mb will likely limit the growth of these showers.

A Colorado Low will track into the region early next week, bringing another round of precipitation into the area. Overnight lows in the upper 30s to 40s support this precipitation being all rain with this system. Current expectations are that precipitation will move in Monday morning over central South Dakota, spreading across the rest of the forecast area the rest of Monday and into Tuesday. The bulk of the rain is expected through Tuesday morning, and the chances to see an inch of rain or more through that time period ranges from 30 to 60 percent, increasing moving from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. There is still a high degree of spread still based on uncertainty in the timing and track of the low. Notably, the Euro ensemble tracks the low pressure center just a bit further north than other ensembles do, which would result in the Aberdeen forecast area trending towards higher rainfall totals through the event.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

This afternoon, main aviation concern is some light showers making their way across north central and into northeastern South Dakota. Under the strongest showers, a brief reduction to MVFR visibilities may be possible, and have included a TEMPO group at KABR to highlight this potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon and evening, with the only other potential concern being wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots over central and north central South Dakota this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, chances for fog will return. The main area of concern will be over parts of north central South Dakota. While fog is expected to be patchy, visibility may drop to MVFR or IFR status at times. A TEMPO ground in the KMBG TAF has been introduced at this time to cover the potential for reductions, but confidence is still somewhat low. The other potential area of concern for fog development will be on the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills, where upslope flow will assist in fog formation. This fog is not anticipated to impact any TAF sites at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.