textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly north central to northeastern SD and western MN, with around a 30% chance of rainfall in excess of 0.10, or a wetting rain, for areas north and east of Aberdeen Monday afternoon through Monday evening. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday, along with some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Quiet conditions expected for the overnight hours, with increasing mid/high clouds towards morning. Lows still expected to drop into the 40s to low 50s for most areas, with light winds becoming southwest by sunrise. Made some minor changes to reduce sky cover this evening as most areas are seeing very little in the way of cloud cover.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

We're starting out this afternoon with high pressure stretching from MT through eastern WY/far western SD through western NE/KS, with a ridge extending through the Northern and Central Plains states. The dominant sfc-500mb centered over Ontario/Hudson Bay has a trough extending westward through central Canada. This west to east oriented trough will sink across ND Monday morning and SD Monday afternoon before shifting MN/IA Monday evening. This will help bring a 30-60% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night. Winds will be out of the northwest gusting into the 30 to near 40 mph Monday afternoon west of the James River (strongest west of the MO River). A surface ridge will move Tuesday morning with lingering rain showers exiting northeastern SD/west central MN overnight.

On Wednesday, low pressure will be moving in from the northwest, over eastern MT to the western Dakotas by 06Z Wednesday, western to central ND/eastern half of SD, and over our eastern counties by 18- 21Z. While thunderstorms are possible, the timing of the low pressure passage and plume of warmest air and highest instability remaining to our south, should keep severe weather over our far southeastern counties and more across IA/MO where there the SPC outlook highlights a 15-20% severe weather probabilities. For our area severe weather chances look to hold off until Friday into the upcoming weekend. The highest chances of precipitation (70-90% chance) and a wetting rain (0.10" or more) remain from north central to northeastern SD/west central MN. Winds will be the main concern for our forecast area. The potential for gusts over 45 mph continue to increase, now 50% or greater west of the James River and over 70% west of the MO River. The probabilities of 55 mph wind gusts are 45% west of the MO River.

A broad area of high pressure will settle in through Friday morning before another area of low pressure organizes across the Central Plains late Friday into Sunday - with the highest chances for widespread precipitation staying to our south.

Confidence is high that temperatures through Sunday will remain in the 70s to low 80s. Normal high temperatures this time of year are in the upper 70s to low 80s, so we will be only a few degrees below normal through the period. At this point Thursday look to be the coolest day, with highs in the low to mid 70s (with a few upper 60s over the Prairie Coteau).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the TAF period. By Monday afternoon, scattered -SHRA/SHRA and -TSRA/TSRA are expected across the region. MVFR VSBY is possible under heavier precipitation cores. Will handle with a PROB30 at KABR/KATY/KMBG and leave mention out at KPIR at this time as chances there are generally around 20 percent or less.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.