textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 50/50 chance at 1/4" moisture in north central SD with the system Thursday night/Friday. Precipitation potential drops rapidly farther south and east of the Missouri river.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45mph) is 50% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is potential for severe weather Saturday. Confidence is low on storm development due to very warm temperatures above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible.

- Overall, the trend in mild temperatures and low humidity is to end soon, with above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s with winds out of the northwest at around 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to about 25 mph. Expect mainly dry conditions for the rest of the day, except for some showers and weak thunderstorms across south central SD later this afternoon. No severe weather is expected at this time.

There is a chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. The chance for more than a quarter inch QPF is 40-50% mainly over Corson county. No severe weather is expected at this time. The weekend is still looking at some potential for unsettled weather. Ensembles have shown the low pressure system slowing down so instead of being over the western Dakotas Saturday, its still forecast to be over eastern MT and WY, not getting into the Dakotas until Sunday morning. Looking at ensemble soundings, there is relatively good agreement of at least some capping Saturday afternoon and little moisture. The GFS has the largest cap. ECMWF ensemble members tend towards a smaller cap that would be easier for storms to overcome. Hodographs show a good amount of lower level shear as well. Overall, if we end up with a smaller cap, or if we mix out well and storms are able to develop and grow, we would be looking at discrete severe storms with all hazards possible. There is a 15% risk area over portions of north central SD between US Hwy 14 and 281 which, from ensemble soundings, looks to have the smallest cap. On the precipitation side of things, chances for the 24 hour period ending Sunday morning have decreased in spatial extent, now covering mainly areas north of US Hwy 12 with 50% or greater chances while areas south are in the 30-45% range.

Temperatures going into the weekend are also going to start to warm up. Highs are expected to be in the 80s to 90s with heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s, highest across east central SD. This will put the HeatRisk in the moderate (affects those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration) to major (affects anyone without cooling/hydration) categories. These higher categories look to start Sunday and continue into at least the beginning of the work week. Stay on the lookout for signs of heat related illnesses. Friday, winds west of the James River have the potential to gust up to 35 mph and are not expected to diminish much at all overnight. These winds will then pick up and spread east Saturday gusting 35 to 45 mph over much of the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.