textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above normal through Saturday.

- Expect increased fire weather concerns over central SD through Saturday, with winds in the afternoon gusting 20-30 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The temperature forecast has been increased through Saturday. This trend looks on track, given that temperatures were above our forecast, especially east of the Prairie Coteau.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

In the near term, with snow rapidly melting, shooting dewpoints into the mid 30s to low 40s by lunchtime, overnight fog seems like it would be a slam dunk. We will still have westerly low level flow which is not a favorable direction for fog usually, however such high dewpoints already in place and still more moisture (snow) on the ground evident via satellite, hard to reason against it. CAMS are also almost universally in support of fog development tonight.

The rest of the forecast concerns center on the warmer temperatures and fire danger over the next few days. The upper level pattern is dominated by the upper high/heat ridge out west, with northwest flow aloft, until around Saturday/Sunday timeframe at which point deterministic models suggest the ridge is suppressed enough to allow for a more zonal, westerly flow regime to set up briefly. Embedded within this flow is a low amplitude shortwave. Once this feature passes, models diverge on whether the ridge out west re-develops or is merely transitory with another wave coming into the west coast for mid-week.

As for temperatures, 850mb temperatures should stay within the bounds of +4 to +6C across western Minnesota to low teens along the Missouri valley through Thursday night. There is a brief jump in temperatures aloft associated with a low that moves across Minnesota into the Western Lakes region. Thus a subtle shift from southwest to northwest low level flow and very weak cold advection, which will knock 850mb temperatures down about 3C from a peak of about +12C to +18C from northeast to southwest across the CWA. Thats followed by another surge in temperatures aloft for Friday night, up to +15 to +18C (2 standard deviations above climo) by Saturday morning, with a late day backdoor cold front which will shift the warm air aloft southwards.

So, in summary, its a steady warmup starting today, with temperatures 10 degrees above average in the east/western Minnesota, to up around 30 degrees above normal out west Thursday. Then more broadly 20 to 30 above normal Friday and Saturday before we cool it back to normal for Sunday. After that it appears the pattern is more supportive of early springlike temperatures as opposed to this jump straight into summer. It should be important to note there is an NBM bias with highs running closer to the 10 to 25th percentiles in general.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at MBG and PIR. Patchy to areas of fog will develop at ABR and ATY overnight and continue until 16Z at ABR and through much of the morning at ATY, with IFR to LIFR ceilings/vis forecast.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.