textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Snowfall continues today with additional accumulations of 1-3 inches in central SD and 2-5 inches across northeast SD and west central MN. North winds will be gusty at times leading to blowing and drifting snow and visibility restrictions.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle of next week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15 to 25 degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 10 to 20 degrees below zero are forecast for Sunday and Monday mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 859 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

No changes planned to the today period. Back edge of snowfall is noted working into the northwest corner of Corson County. Probably another 1-3 inches of snowfall possible between now and 00Z Sunday (up to an inch out west vs up to 3 inches along and east of the I-29 corridor). Not planning any changes to the current headlines. Most of the CWA will see wind gusts topping out around 20-30 mph today. The far southern zones (I-90 corridor) may see some gusts in excess of 30 mph. But, that is not expected to happen until about the time falling snow is ending. So visibility restrictions in mainly ground level blowing/drifting snow are not expected to be all that bad.

UPDATE Issued at 542 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 436 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Snow continues to fall in most locales across the forecast area early this morning. There even has been reports of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain across parts of central and east central SD since late last night. It's certainly substantiated by HRRR/RAP BUFKIT soundings that show a loss of ice crystals in the DGZ. They do show that it will be brief though as that portion of the column saturates again by 12Z. The potent storm system that brought the latest round of wintry weather to the area will track east across KS toward the Kansas City area by midday today and then head northeast toward the Chicago area by midnight tonight. An elongated sfc trough extending from this low pressure system into SD in conjunction with the upper trough axis sinking southeast across the region will maintain snowfall this morning across most of our forecast area. The back edge of the precip is progged to shift into central SD closer to the midday hours and then gradually march eastward across the rest of our CWA through the afternoon hours finally coming to an end in our far east sometime closer to early this evening.

Additional accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches across most of central SD and between 2 and 5 inches across zones farther east from the James Valley into west central MN. The pressure gradient will tighten up some as the morning hours wear on. Expect north to northwest winds to kick up today, especially across central and south central SD. Gusts in those zones will range between 30-40 mph which will lead to blowing and drifting snow and locally reduced visibilities. As a result of these latest trends, have made some changes to the existing winter weather headlines. Will let the Winter Storm Warning for Corson/Dewey expire on time at 18Z as any impactful winter weather should be mostly done by that time. The Winter Storm Warning for central sections of the state will expire at 18Z and be replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory until 21Z this afternoon. This will be in conjunction with extending to 21Z the Winter Weather Advisory for surrounding central SD zones that was already in place. Farther east, from the James Valley and points east into west central MN, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 00Z this evening.

A 1040mb high pressure system will gradually build into the Dakotas late tonight through Sunday. A core of arctic air will accompany this high and overspread the region through early next week. Cloudy skies should gradually break up on Sunday with some sunshine returning but it won't help much. Sunday will start off with temperature readings in the single digits above and below zero. With 925mb temperatures in the low to mid teens below zero C, there won't be much of a recovery during the day. High temperatures in the upper single digits to mid teens look very probable. And it won't take much wind to produce wind chill values between 15 to 20 below zero, especially across northern SD into west central MN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 436 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunday evening starts the long term with somewhat split flow aloft. Winds are mainly out of the west over our area with a trough extending southwest towards UT and NV. This trough will continue to move east and join back up with the flow around Monday bringing our winds around to the northwest. It still doesn't look to affect us here at the surface as high pressure will be in place in the lower levels. Once this trough moves through, we remain in northwesterly flow. For the later portion of the period, we get several rounds of vorticity with flow remaining out of the northwest. The Canadian and GFS both show a trough moving across the area Friday, although the Canadian's is quite a bit weaker. Down at the surface, as mentioned, there is high pressure over the region to start. This will get pushed out as the lower level trough moves through later Monday into Tuesday, however, this looks to be a pretty dry airmass so no precipitation is expected at this time. Following this, we get a stronger push of moist air that could bring some light snow to the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Then, through the end of the period, we remain relatively saturated with the EC hinting at a stronger low moving our of ND for the out periods.

The first half of the work week looks to remain dry before snow chances creep back in for the second half of the week. With the more moist atmosphere and several rounds of upper level energy, we could see several days with at least light snow showers. Confidence is low on this for the moment though since it is 4-7 days out. On a more positive note, ahead of that incoming low on Saturday we could see a bit of a warm up, potentially getting above freezing for areas west of the James River, and maybe just shy of freezing for the James River Valley as we get some WAA. Again, confidence is low on this as it is just the EC showing this at the moment and the spread in NBM Max T is about 15 degrees. Wind chills Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday mornings are still expected to be in the teens below zero

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Snow will continue to fall at all terminals this morning with a gradual tapering off from west to east this afternoon. As long as the snow persists so will the IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys. As the snow ends later this afternoon and early evening, MVFR/VFR conditions are expected toward the end of this TAF cycle. North to northwest winds will gust around 20-25 knots at times today into tonight before slowly fading toward daybreak Sunday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003- 009-010-015>017-034-036-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for SDZ004-005-033-035-045-048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ009-010-016-017-034-036-037.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ046.