textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s Friday. A sharp cooldown expected Saturday through early next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

- High to very high grassland fire danger expected Friday with highest concern west river.

-There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms late Friday afternoon into the evening over portions of northeastern SD and west central MN. The primary hazards will be wind gusts of 60-75 mph and hail up to 2 inches in diameter.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Dry southwest flow continues across the region today under somewhat flattened ridging aloft. Low pressure moves in tonight and slowly advances eastward through Friday. Behind this low, caa takes hold. Ahead of the low, breezy conditions will continue to draw up warmer air especially on the downslope areas of the Coteau. Most models still show best moisture convergence in MN by 21z Friday. In spite of SPC's slight risk that stretches back across the Coteau, none of the hi-res are overly impressed with storm chances in SD. However, if something does form in the mildly capped (+11C), dry environment, strong winds would be a threat.

The other concern with this low and cold front will be those 30 to 40 mph wind gusts over dry fuels in central SD. Min RH south of Pierre is forecast to fall to 20 to 25 percent. While not strictly red flag criteria, the strength of the winds could necessitate a headline. Very high grassland fire danger is expected, either way.

On Saturday, high pressure briefly builds in with H85 temps falling to around +10C to +12C. Temperatures will be markedly cooler, even a few degrees below seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 60 to lower 70s. The cooler, more fall-like temps will persist through early next week.

Sunday into Monday, low pressure moves off the Rockies into the Plains. Shortwave energy will eject out over the northern plains ahead of an upper low in Montana. All of this will result in some widespread rainfall. Given this is expected to fall rather slowly and some models have backed off on overall QPF amounts, the precip should be welcome.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.