textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of snow develops this morning in central and north central South Dakota, moving eastward into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon. More widespread light to moderate snowfall is expected tonight through Saturday morning. Winter weather headlines remain in place for this system.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least the middle of next week. Coldest timeframe is Sunday/Monday with temps 15 to 25 degrees below normal. Wind chills as cold as 5 to 15 degrees below zero forecast for Sunday and Monday mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Dry air in profiles is delaying onset of snowfall for about 2 to 3 hours, but otherwise progression of the band and rapid snow accumulations therein are on-target. Winds have also been below NBM and as such have tempered winds/gusts and the blowing/drifting snow threat. No additional major changes to the forecast moving forwards otherwise.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Current sfc analysis indicates high pressure draped across the eastern Dakotas and western MN while an area of low pressure is centered across eastern WY. Satellite imagery indicates a mix of low stratus with mid/high clouds drifting overhead. Areas of fog continue to affect portions of north central SD, mainly from Corson and Dewey Counties east into Walworth, Potter and Faulk Counties as well as over portions of the Glacial Lakes/Prairie Coteau region. The fog across central SD should gradually improve as a storm system shifts out of the Rockies into the Plains this morning. The fog may hold out longer in those eastern zones at least through mid morning.

The main focus will be on that aforementioned storm system that is set to deliver another round of snowfall to our forecast area today into Saturday. Current radar imagery shows some of this snow already shifting east-southeast across western SD into our far western zones. Some webcams in our area do show that in fact snow is falling. For today, the low pressure system in WY will sink southeast into NE. An inverted trough extending north from the sfc low will track across western SD this afternoon and evening and eventually across central and eastern SD tonight through Saturday morning. A band or multiple bands of snow will set up northwest to southeast across central SD this morning before tracking east into northeast SD and west central MN closer to midday and afternoon. This is all thanks to mid level warm advection induced frontogenetic forcing and an upper jet streak that will be most prominent during the morning hours today before weakening this afternoon. After this WAA induced snowfall the first half of today, we could see a lull in the action across parts of central/south central SD this afternoon before the upper trough axis tracks southeast into the western Dakotas tonight into Saturday morning kicking off another round of steadier snowfall that will track east into northeast/east central SD early Saturday. Still some questions remain as far as snowfall intensity with this system. BUFKIT sounding still indicate a deepening saturated column through the DGZ with increasing Omega as we get into the late evening and overnight hours. Therefore, snow to liquid ratios remain on the high side, 16-19:1 but at the same time the HREF probabilities for snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour remain zero for the duration of this event. Nevertheless, would anticipate the bulk of the snowfall will occur during the second phase of this storm system.

Accumulations and headlines haven't changed a great deal from previous forecast issuances. Still expecting the heavier swath of snowfall(5-7 inches) to set up from north central sections of SD south and east toward the Gettysburg/Faulkton areas and then southward into the Miller/Redfield areas where a Winter Storm Warning remains posted. We could see some enhancement across our far southeast zones up along the spine of the Prairie Coteau in Deuel and Grant Counties. Also, anticipate more in the way of accumulation across south central SD, including the Murdo area where wind gusts will be the strongest and better potential for blowing and drifting. Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory for Jones County and also Big Stone County as expected snowfall came up just a bit there too. Snow will gradually taper off and end from west to east by mid to late afternoon Saturday. Temperatures through this period will remain chilly and much below normal for late November with overnight lows in the low to mid teens and highs only in the upper teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The long term starts Saturday evening with our upper level trough exiting SD and moving farther into MN and IA. We move into more westerly flow aloft Sunday into Monday. The next trough dips down out of southern Canada later Monday afternoon and models disagree as to how far into SD it reaches. The EC and Canadian are more shallow, mostly impacting northeastern SD, while the GFS has it reaching much farther south. Another trough heads out of Canada Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The center of the low looks to stay in Canada so it doesn't look like we will feel much impacts if it stays on that track. Down towards the surface, high pressure moves in Sunday, behind the low which will bring us a few days of dry weather. Wednesday, the lower level trough moves across bringing a chance for some snow. Models are starting to show a disturbance move across the Dakotas Thursday into Friday.

Ahead of the Wednesday trough we get some slight chances for snow, mainly west of the James River. Doesn't look like much at the moment in the way of accumulation, although this is still 5 days out so there is plenty of time for that to change. Some WAA on Monday and Tuesday will bring us just slightly warmer temperatures, bringing us back into the 20s for highs across northeastern SD and potentially into the mid 30s for central SD. Wednesday looks to be a little cooler before we get another shot of WAA on Thursday. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings are still expected to be quite cold with wind chills in the teens below zero. Sunday and Monday mornings look to be the coldest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for KATY currently, while under a snow band we have IFR CIGS/VISBY. That feature is headed away for KPIR/KMBG and towards KABR and eventually KATY. There will be a break this evening with just some persistent MVFR CIGS, before another round of snow brings back IFR CIGS/VISBY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Saturday for SDZ007-008-011-020>023.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ003-009-010-015>017-034-036-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ004-033-035-045-048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for SDZ005-006- 018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Saturday for MNZ046.