textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal through mid-week.

- South winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph across mainly central and northeast South Dakota today through Tuesday. Locally higher gust potential in downslope favored areas east of the Sisseton hills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The main theme for the next few days will be the persistent strong southerly breeze. For a ceiling on these winds, NBM probabilities of exceeding 45 mph never get much higher than a few percent, so not looking at any headlines. That said, with regards to fire weather concerns... the winds, dry fuels and harvesting means they will be elevated, though daytime humidity is only ever down to 50 to 70 percent.

Where winds may exceed NBM expectations are in the downslope favored areas near Ree Heights and the lee of the Sisseton hills. Granted, 1/2km winds only top out around 35-40kts. There is a window where the RRFS winds increase to 50kts in the critical layer at Peever, though the inversion depicted in BUFKIT is far less shallow in comparison to past events. This isn't until late Tuesday/Wednesday with a surface low moving across central to northeast South Dakota, so a bit too far out for higher resolution models to help quantify the intensity of the potential downslope.

Warm overnight temperatures could be near records thanks to these persistent winds. 850mb temperatures remain a standard deviation above climo, which translates into highs well into the 50s. NBM lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s are close to records, particularly on the 18th.

In regards to the track/timing of the low, still about the same, with most of the moisture falling across North Dakota.

We also continue to evaluate a system that follows for Friday/Saturday timeframe. While still being depicted with some degree of run to run consistency in the GFS/Canadian, it was significantly downplayed in the 12Z EC. The latest 00Z EC is closer to the suite of other deterministic models. Again too far out for much details, but the NBM is still depicting a transition to rain/snow on the backside...though right now with minimal accumulations.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. South to southeast winds between 10 to 20 knots will continue with gusts up to 30 knots. Low level wind shear continues to be possible across portions of north central and northeastern SD. This looks to mainly affect KABR and KMBG through 12Z Sunday where gusts of 40-50kts are possible around 2000ft out of the south/southeast. LLWS is also possible again Sunday evening into Monday morning, mainly east of the Missouri River, affecting KABR/KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.