textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will gradually warm during the next couple days. Daytime highs will increase from the from the 50s to low 60s Tuesday to the 60s to mid-70s on Wednesday.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front. Gusts are expected to peak at 30 to 45 miles per hour. The strong winds will also cause elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A tight pressure gradient remains in place this afternoon through the heart of the forecast area. Southerly winds have been gusting on the order of 25-35 mph and with RH values falling into a 25-35 percent range, high to very high grassland fire danger will persist through the remainder of today across parts of central/northeast SD. A 35-45 low level jet has set up across our eastern zones this afternoon and will persist into the early evening. Mid level moisture transport north into our region could be enough to kick off some high based showers across mainly northeast SD/west central MN through late afternoon/early evening. However, BUFKIT profiles continue to show a deep dry sub-cloud layer, so some of this light precip may not even reach the ground. Nonetheless, have continued the mention of a low end chance for sprinkles/showers.

A cold front will sag south into the area tonight and then is expected to stall out across portions of the forecast area going into Tuesday. Temperatures tonight won't be quite as chilly as warm air advection pattern will squeeze a more mild air mass into the area ahead of that cold front. That front may remain stationary over the CWA or gradually wash out on Tuesday. Wherever it sets up could have a play on how warm temperatures get during the day. 925mb temps are progged to be a bit warmer than today, so we all should see some warmer highs with readings in the 50s and 60s. There won't be as much of a concern for fire weather compared to today, but still parts of central and northeast SD will see high grassland fire danger as a bit of a southeast breeze kicks in during the afternoon. As an upper level ridge re-asserts itself across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, we should see a bit of a shortwave ridge develop as heights rise. A warm front is expected to lift back to the north across the forecast area. 850mb temps are progged to top out between +12C to possibly near +20C Wednesday. Favorable mixing up to that level should yield high temps in the 60s east to the 70s west with south central SD zones approaching 80 degrees.

Medium to longer range guidance continues to be in good agreement for later this week through the upcoming weekend. Another strong cold front is expected to push south through the forecast area early Thursday. Some mid level energy working through ND in conjunction with the fropa will provide at least our northern half of the forecast area with light precipitation during the early morning and midday hours. QPF still looks limited with probabilities of seeing a hundredth of an inch or greater range from 20-40 percent across the northern half of the CWA with zones along the ND border closer to 50 percent. Windy conditions behind this fropa will be the main weather headline as we could see a couple surges of cold air advection push through the CWA. Probabilities of seeing northerly wind gusts reach 40 mph or greater remain around 60-80 percent across the entire CWA. We could see readings at least remain steady or slowly fall a few degrees during the day. That strong CAA pattern will allow temperatures to sharply drop back closer to normal for late March. The strong winds on Thursday will likely elevate fire weather concerns, although with the cooler readings keeping RH values in check that Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. A SCT/BKN deck of mid level clouds will continue shifting east across parts of central and northeast South Dakota this afternoon. A light sprinkle or shower may be possible around KABR/KATY during the afternoon, but chances are low enough to include mention of it in the forecast. South winds will remain gusty between 25 knots to near 35 knots at times through late afternoon and then gradually diminish going into early evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.