textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Rain amounts generally between 1/4 to 1/2 inch and a negligible threat for severe storms.

- Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Not much overall going on for the next several days. This mornings frost while still ongoing is only for this morning and the rest of the forecast is dominated by moderating temperatures and a pair of systems Friday.

High pressure moves east today, with return (southerly) flow across the state. The gradient is about 8-12mb across the state, so a breezy (Gusts 20 to 35 mph) pair of days. The first shortwave of note lifts up across the southeast part of the state headed up along the MN/SD state line embedded within southwest flow mid-day Friday. The second wave takes a similar trajectory just slightly to the west Friday night. The short distance between waves means a mainly continuous precipitation mainly east river. Profiles are moist adiabatic/no instability with some shear, so mostly just rain. NBM mean is between 1/4 to 1/3 for the Missouri valley to around 1/2 inch in the Watertown area. The upper trough departs, with zonal flow aloft with increasing heights Sunday/Monday. Thats followed by a deepening trough across the western CONUS, all of which end up pumping warmer air aloft into the region. 850mb temperatures still are a standard deviation above climo, and as such Sun-Tues temperatures are forecast 10 to 20 degrees above normal. NBM dewpoints are also on the rise with broad/weak and sometimes intermittent southerly flow up through the Gulf and across the Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ004>011- 016>023-034>037-051. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046.