textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers move over the area this evening into Saturday. Rain rates are generally expected to be light, but the strongest showers may put out around a tenth of an inch of rain, particularly over northeastern South Dakota.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Monday through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Plains. While there is low confidence in amounts at this time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 50 to 80 percent, increasing from west to east across the forecast area.

- Winds turn northwesterly and increase on the back side of the low pressure center Monday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour will be possible along and west of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered rain showers move into the area later this evening and into tonight. Coverage begins over central South Dakota before expanding to the rest of the forecast area during the overnight period. Generally expecting rain rates to remain fairly light overall, but under the strongest showers, around a tenth of an inch may fall in total (roughly a 25-45% chance over parts of northeastern South Dakota).

With an upper-level ridge overhead, above normal temperatures can be expected for the next couple of days. Highs in the 50s to low 60s are about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures are also expected to stay well above freezing through the weekend. The upper-level pattern will shift at the start of next week, and an upper-level trough will move overhead. This will push temperatures back down closer to normal (highs in the low 50s to upper 40s) for mid to late next week, as well as bring back chances for freezing temperatures during the overnights.

With the coming pattern change, a Colorado Low is set to move into the region early next week, bringing another round of rainfall to the region. Rainfall totals over the last 24 hours of model runs have continued to trend upwards. The footprint of the area of heaviest rainfall has also shifted, now located firmly over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. In that area, ensemble median rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are up to 2". While the GEFS and NBM have their highest rainfall totals over parts of the Aberdeen forecast area, the Euro ensemble favors a more easterly track of the low, which would lead to a slight decrease in the precipitation potential should that scenario pan out (medians around 1.5"). In either scenario, rainfall totals decrease moving to the west. As the low pressure center moves in and tracks north, winds will turn northwesterly and increase thanks to the tightening pressure gradient. The strongest gusts are expected along and west of the Missouri River Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, where gusts have a 30-60% chance to hit Wind Advisory criteria of 45 miles per hour or higher.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern with overnight rain showers will be timing the onset of sub-VFR cigs and periodic visby reductions under the heaviest of rain showers. MVFR cigs have already made it into KATY, and it probably won't be long before it's into KPIR and KABR. Tried to limit the amount of PROB30 mention to rain shower onset and the KPIR/KMBG terminals where lesser coverage of rain showers is expected. Even though the rain is forecast to end between late morning and late afternoon on Saturday, sub-VFR low clouds and perhaps a few pockets of fog/drizzle are expected to persist through the end of the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.