textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet, and/or rain over central SD this morning will switch to mostly snow over northeastern SD and west central MN through late this afternoon.

-Light snow accumulations of a light dusting over central SD up to an inch over northeastern SD is expected. Additionally, a light glaze of ice is possible over mainly central and south central SD.

- High temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be mostly in the 60s and 70s, could be colder if snow remains on the ground.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A warm front will move through central and northeastern SD this morning through the afternoon along with a line of precipitation. The precipitation is forecast to start as snow, and then as warm temperatures aloft start to warm the atmosphere, the snow will melt into freezing rain/sleet/ice pellets and then potentially rain through the morning and into the afternoon. The precipitation will exit northeastern SD late this afternoon into the evening.

Model soundings show the warm air moving in over central SD during the morning causing higher chances for freezing rain for a few hours in the morning before precipitation chances move east. The ensembles have a 20-50% chance for 0.01 inch of freezing rain to accumulate over central SD and south central SD, with a light glaze possible for most of these areas. Areas around the James River Valley and east have cooler temperatures aloft for longer in the morning and afternoon, allowing for longer times where snow will most likely be falling. East of the Missouri River could see a light dusting to a half inch of snow up to an inch and a half over northeastern SD. There is a 40-80% chance for greater than an inch over and east of the James River, especially over the Prairie Coteau. Some model soundings show sleet instead of snow occurring east of the Missouri River for a bit due to the moisture in the soundings below the dendritic growth zone, which is needed for snow development. If this is the case, there could be less snow accumulation or freezing rain in some areas and more ice pellets/sleet. If the warmer air moves in faster over central and northeastern SD, then there could be more freezing rain accumulation and less snow/sleet. Roads and surfaces could be a bit slick through the day from the light accumulations of ice and snow. Though depending on how fast temperatures warm at the surface during the day, the ice and snow accumulations for areas west of the Prairie Coteau could melt away before the afternoon commute. To add another threat to watch out for, there could be some stronger winds from the frontal passage that could cause gusts this afternoon to get up to 30-35 mph especially over the James River Valley and Prairie Coteau. If snow is still falling as these winds are occurring, then there could be some localized areas of blowing snow and a reduction in visibility during the mid morning into early afternoon.

An upper-level ridge to the west slowly tries to move over SD during the end of the week into the weekend. While this ridge is trying to move over, temperatures warm at the surface. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are forecast to be 15-25 degrees warmer than normal, with some of those days flirting with record highs and record warm low temperatures. High temperatures during these days could get up into the 60s to 70s with lows in the 30s to 40s. Precipitation chances are forecast to stay out of central and northeastern SD until the weekend. The models show an upper-level shortwave suppressing the ridge on Saturday/Sunday and helps a surface low move out of Alberta. This low could then bring some precipitation to the area. Models vary the chances, timing, track, and location of the precipitation due to it being 5 days out, leading to lower confidence in the chances that precipitation occurs in central and northeastern SD this weekend. An eye will need to be kept on the models as the weekend gets closer to see if they come to more of an agreement on what will happen.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGs will gradually lower into MVFR from west to east across the region through the morning hours. -SN/SN will also be spreading eastward over the region, with IFR/LIFR VSBY. Towards the end of the precipitation event, there is opportunity for a brief period of mixed precip for sleet (PL) and/or freezing rain (FZRA) and included this as a PROB30 group at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.