textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning and Winter Weather Advisory headlines remain in effect through this evening.

- Strong northwest winds will continue, with gusts of 45 to 65 mph, highest over central South Dakota through this evening. Wind gusts ranging between 30 to 45 mph will continue overnight.

- New snow accumulations of a trace to two inches is possible through Saturday morning. Thin northwest to southeast oriented bands of moderate to heavy snow are possible through the afternoon which will result in intermittent white-out conditions.

- Strong northwest winds of 45 mph or higher and a 20-30 percent chance for light snow return on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The main concern for today will be the ongoing strong northwest winds combining with light snow showers that could produce drops in visibility at times. As of 230am, radar indicates scattered snow showers tracking northwest to southeast mainly east of the Missouri River. There was a stronger convective band that tracked out of ND (produced a lightning strike there!), and over north central SD through ABR which dropped visibility down to 1SM around 215am here at KABR. There was a wind gust report of 58mph at Sand Lake and one near Eureka around this time. There was also a band near ATY an hour or so ago. Within the past 3 hours, Pierre gusted to 69 mph 2:03am and Foster Bay at 59 mph just shortly before midnight. Temperatures are still ranging in the upper 20s into the 30s, at least for now before the front passes through and they start tanking.

By 12Z, the center of the fairly stacked 995mb low will hover over northeastern MN/western MI through southern Ontario with its arctic cold front extending through MN and westward through central SD. By 18Z, the front will continue to track southeastward with the entire CWA behind the cold front as the center of the low will be over WI/Great Lakes Region. By this evening, the CWA will be on the western side of this low with an arctic high to our northwest over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The strongest CAA will be along/right behind the arctic front with 850mb temps dropping to around -12 to - 15C over north central to northeastern SD/western MN and 925mb temps around -9C James Valley and eastward around 12Z. By 18Z, temps will continue to drop with 850mb temps down to -13 to -20C at 850mb and - 6 to -15C at 925mb. The stronger pressure rises of +4 to +7mb/6hr will lag behind the strongest CAA between 12-18Z.

This initial push of cold arctic air surging to the surface combining with the gustier winds aloft (40-60kts at 850mb 12-18Z), along with steep pressure gradients on the western side of the low, leads to the strongest winds this morning through the afternoon. Sustained winds are forecast between 25 to 45 mph with gusts of 45 to 65 mph, highest over central SD. Therefore, the High Wind Warning remains in effect for north central and central SD through this evening. EFI still highlights this well with values of 0.8 to 0.99 James Valley and westward with EFI values of 1 to 2 over central and western SD for wind gusts giving high confidence on these strong winds. Winds will diminish a bit this evening/overnight but still remain gusty, between 30-45 mph, due to the ongoing steep pressure gradient between the high and low.

CAMs still lock on to snow showers continuing to track out of Canada/ND and through the CWA today and tonight with a few of the models (NAM Nest,HIResARW,HRRR)still indicating northwest to southeast thin convective bands of snow at times within this overall wrap around snow that could produce quick bursts of snow and drop in visibility over portions of central and northeastern SD. HREF shows hourly rates could reach quarter to just under a half inch per hour in these bands at times. Adding in the high winds and visibility could be reduced very quickly to near blizzard or blizzard conditions while the snow is falling within these bands. However, HREF it is less than impressed with the overall snow/snowband potential after 18Z, keeping most of the area dry. So grid wise, I blended in some ECAM to NBM to show the potential for this but also kept the coverage area widespread due to the nature of the wrap around snow overall and less confidence on where these bands could exactly set up. Models indicate the last of this wrap around snow should depart the southern CWA by early Saturday morning. QPF amounts still look to remain pretty light ranging from 0.01-0.06" per NBM with WPC indicating values a bit higher, with values of 0.5 to 0.10" over portions of south central SD and up to 0.15" over the northern portions of the Sisseton Hills. With the colder air, snow ratios will be on the higher side (17-19:1 through noon and about 15- 17:1 noon through 00Z). This will make the snow very easy to drift and become lofted. Overall 24hr snow amounts, ending 12Z Saturday range from a couple tenths of an inch up to two inches, with the highest snow amounts associated with any of these convective snow bands. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA, which also takes into account the wind advisory level winds James Valley and eastward through this evening.

With the arctic front, temps will continue to drop behind it with temperatures by noon down in the teens and lower 20s, dropping into the single digits to teens above zero by 6pm. Overnight lows will be quite chilly ranging from near 0 to the single digits below zero. Wind chills are forecasted to range between 20 to potentially 30 below zero over portions of north central SD. With collaboration, we decided to punt any Cold Weather Advisory to the day shift due to all the headlines currently out now. Highs for Saturday will be cold ranging in the single digits above zero to the upper teens, coldest James Valley and eastward.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The overall upper air flow pattern across the region will continue to feature northwesterly flow with at least a couple of noteworthy embedded shortwaves progged to track south and east across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during this period. Prior to the first in that series of upper waves arriving Sunday, our forecast area will remain under control of high pressure Saturday night into early Sunday. This sfc ridge axis will shift from the Dakotas/MN border region eastward Saturday night into early Sunday. Return flow sets up across the forecast area overnight with low level warm advection kicking in. Temperatures will stabilize or slowly rise prior to sunrise. The upper trough axis is progged to move through Sunday morning. A warm front quickly followed by a trailing cold front sweeps through during the morning and midday hours leading to a 20-30 percent chance for light snow mainly for the James Valley and points east. Right now, it appears any accumulations will be minor. Probabilities for seeing 1 inch or more of snowfall currently sit at about 15-20 percent east of the James Valley, mainly over the Prairie Coteau into west central MN on Sunday. In the wake of the cold fropa, a period of strong northwest winds develop once again leading to potential for blowing snow, especially in areas that see the snow falling. Current probabilities of wind advisory type wind gusts(45+ mph) over a 24 hour period ending at midnight early Monday morning indicate a broad 60-95+ percent chance across the forecast area with the highest probabilities(75+ percent chance) across our SD zones. This will lead to another period of blowing snow issues, potentially reducing visibilities during the day Sunday.

Cold air advection takes hold the latter half of the day leading to the potential of falling temperatures from the teens and 20s to the single digits and teens by late afternoon or early evening. Enough of a breeze will lead to wind chill values potentially as low as 20- 25 below in some locales early Monday morning. Sfc high pressure will build in on Monday maintaining below normal temperatures in the single digits and teens with dry conditions returning. The second noteworthy upper trough is progged by guidance to move southeast across the Northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring potentially bring parts of the forecast area some light precipitation. As of now, the system doesn't look impressive with only a 15-20 percent chance of light snow for northeast SD and west central MN. Thermal progs in longer range guidance suggest that readings will modify back closer to mid January normals Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s east to the mid 20s to low 30s west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SN/SN will move southeast across the region through the TAF period. CIGs are forecast to generally remain MVFR, however, brief drops to lower cigs of IFR are possible with any stronger snow or snow bands that produce a brief burst of light to moderate snow this morning and afternoon. Strong northwest surface winds will continue to gust between 35 and 55 knots through much of the TAF period, with the strongest gusts expected across central SD affecting KPIR/KMBG.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039- 046.