textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog could develop over portions of north central South Dakota by late tonight, persisting for a few hours after sunrise Monday morning.

- Dry with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal through mid-week.

- South winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph across mainly central and northeast South Dakota through Tuesday. Locally higher gust potential in downslope favored areas east of the Sisseton hills tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

At 1 PM CST, under a sunny/mostly sunny sky, temperatures are warming through the 50s, heading for the low 60s across portions of central and south central South Dakota. Winds are out of the south at 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

While 35 to 50 mph downslope wind gusts develop this evening and overnight in the lee-of-the-Prairie-Coteau, surface low pressure troffing that moves into north central South Dakota should knock winds down to light and variable. With little to no significant cloud cover streaming over this area tonight/Monday morning, expecting (patchy to areas of) fog coverage across north central South Dakota by sunrise Monday morning.

Not a whole lot of change in the overall forecast steering flow pattern during this seven day stretch. Upper level ridging over the middle of the CONUS appears to be interrupted a couple of times by low pressure systems working in off the west coast. The first system is progged to track from the central Rockies up through western South Dakota into North Dakota and Minnesota, keeping most of the precipitation potential north/west of the CWA Wednesday night/Thursday. The second system is still progged to impact the CWA mainly Friday night (50-70% chance of measurable) through Saturday.

Plenty of warm air remains in place across the region on these 15 to 30 mph southerly winds through Tuesday. Right now, low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night could end up tie-ing or breaking records for warmth. Wednesday is probably also fairly warm, although, a wind shift to west-northwest winds is progged for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cooler temperatures, closer to November climate normals, are then progged for the rest of the week into the weekend.

With each passing day that winds are gusting in excess of 25 mph and fine fuels are dry/cured, the Grassland Fire Danger is expected to be elevated; probably holding in that moderate to high category/range. Will have to keep a close watch on relative humidity forecasts through Tuesday, as a drop in humidity of just 20 to 30 percent could result in an increase in Grassland Fire Danger to greater than the "high" category.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, except for a few hours around sunrise Monday at Mobridge (fog). South to southeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will continue. The exception is at KMBG, where winds are expected to decouple/become light and variable later tonight, allowing for the potential for fog. Also, there are a couple of hours of low level wind shear potential this evening, mainly at KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.