textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight warmup is expected beginning Thursday, with near-normal temperatures (highs in the upper 60s to low 70s) expected through the weekend.

- Dry and windy conditions are expected Friday. Humidity of 20-25% and wind gusts of 25-35 miles per hour may combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over part of northern South Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The daytime cumulus clouds remain in place late this afternoon/early this evening, but will diminish in coverage as we lose daytime heating. No significant changes are expected to the ongoing forecast.

A Record Event Report was issued for Mobridge, as they set a record low of 20 degrees this morning. This broke the previous record of 22 degrees from 1929.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Upper-level trough remains the dominant influence over the region today, continuing to bring below normal temperatures to the Aberdeen forecast area. A high pressure center to the southwest will bring northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour gusting to 25 through the remainder of this afternoon to early evening. Diurnal cumulus is also expected to persist through that same period, with mid-level moisture supporting some additional cloud cover sticking around overnight. As the high pressure progresses off to the south and the pressure gradient weakens, winds will become light and variable, although generally will carry a southerly component.

While the broad pattern will hold consistent for the next couple of days, slight height rises (~5-10 dam at 500mb Thursday into Friday) will facilitate a bit of a warming trend, bringing highs up to near- normal by Friday. Warm temperatures will push afternoon humidity down below 25 percent both Thursday afternoon (lowest in the James River Valley) and Friday afternoon (mainly west of the James River). Grassland Fire Danger is generally expected to remain low to moderate despite the dry conditions, with the exception of part of the James River Valley where the lowest humidity and strongest winds (gusting to 25 to 35 miles per hour out of the northwest) combine. While nothing has been issued on this shift, can't rule out the possibility of reaching Red Flag Warning criteria over a portion of northern South Dakota. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty with both fuel status as well as temperatures/humidity (due to the current forecast having minimum humidity sitting at to just above the 20 percent threshold). Will continue to monitor conditions for future forecasts.

Pattern will hold through the weekend, and little of note is expected other than some slight chances for some light rain showers to clip part of central South Dakota Saturday afternoon. With any showers that do develop, little to no accumulation is anticipated. Upper-level trough to the east will deepen early next week, allowing for a weak ridge to exert influence into the region and bring some warmer temperatures to start next week. 500mb heights of roughly 570 dam Monday into Tuesday sit at roughly the 75th percentile for mid- May. This corresponds to surface temperatures expected to be in the 70s to low 80s, roughly 5-15 degrees above normal. Nothing substantial in terms of precipitation in the extended, but both a jet streak set to move overhead and a cold front may potentially produce some light showers through Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue, with winds generally 10kts or less through the forecast period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.