textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- KABR radar is unavailable at this time. A local technician has looked at the issue and a part will be on order. The return to service is unknown at this time. Alternative radars include KBIS, KMVX, KMPX, KFSD, KLNX, and KUDX.

- Disorganized area of showers and storms coming in from western South Dakota this morning. Severe weather unlikely with this round moisture.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms this afternoon/early evening along and east of the James valley into western Minnesota. Main threat is quarter sized hail, but there could be isolated gusts of 60 mph as well.

UPDATE

Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

UPDATE for 12Z TAF discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Still looking at convection rolling through this morning continuing to weaken. Daytime destabilization related re-invigoration across the James valley and points east is still on as well, with cool/dry air aloft and unidirectional shear that presents with both a hail and wind threat.

The upper low tracks over eastern North Dakota for Wednesday, and flow aloft continues to increase, however NAM BUFKIT profiles show that despite the relatively cool temperatures aloft (700mb temps of 0 to +2C across the northeast CWA), profiles are stable above the boundary layer. Thus, expecting vigorous daytime driven cumulus topping out between 8-10kft, likely too shallow for precipitation generation.

Dry conditions until the next wave, a weak one crossing west to east across the Northern Rockies. This system weakens even farther after ejecting in the western Dakotas, with the main wave pivoting northwards, depriving much of the CWA of any sort of upper support. Deterministic NBM mean is up around 1/2" while the forecast is running at between 1/3" to essentially nothing east of the James valley. Probability of exceeding 1" is focused around the Pierre area at 30%.

Main focus remains on the upper low moving down into the Pac NW for the weekend, then looping across the Northern Rockies/Great Basin before lifting up into Montana/southern Canada. This causes a strong ridge to develop across the eastern CONUS and places us in a strong southwest flow regime Sunday and Monday. Granted we're still 160- 180 out so timing/track will likely shift, but timing on the shortwave is Sunday night lifting up across the western Dakotas. The EC/GFS are well aligned, the Canadian is lagging. The surface low also mostly moves across Montana and the far western Dakotas. We're kind of on the southern periphery of all this. Will also have to contend with a plume of very warm air aloft, with the GFS now maxing out around +18C at 700mb, but as is the trend in both the EC/Canadian... much cooler aloft. GEFS is continuing to step up slightly and is getting closer to the 2 standard deviation threshold.

With regard to temperatures, fairly good confidence through the end of the work week, with this mild airmass and seasonal tolerable humidity. For the weekend, we are seeing a direct fetch from both the Gulf and Central/Southern Plains where dewpoints have been well into the 70s. NBM 25th/75th percentile are also showing a high degree of uncertainty for temperatures this weekend (~10F).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

To start the period light showers will be near PIR. Otherwise, low chances of precipitation will move across ABR/ATY during the daytime hours today, with scatted afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. However, chances are low enough to not be added to the TAFs at this time. Other than the initial showers at PIR, only VCSH have been mentioned at ATY mid morning until 18Z. MVFR ceilings will be possible in a TEMPO fashion at PIR through 16Z or with any thunderstorms that may develop this afternoon east.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.