textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures today in the upper 80s to mid 90s (15-20 degrees above normal). Slightly cooler air will filter in Friday into weekend but still remain above normal.

- Low chances (15-30 percent) for rain showers mainly over south central SD tonight into Friday morning. Chances for showers and storms increase (20-40 percent) over central SD Friday afternoon and through the evening.

- Increasing chances (40-80 percent) for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Central and northeastern SD and west central MN will continue to see temperatures that are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal (in the upper 80s to mid 90s) as a ridge continues to sit over the state. A surface high pressure in Canada will be working its way south towards the Great Lakes through the day. As this high pressure pushes its way south, a frontal boundary in front of it will be pushed through northeast SD. This front could help afternoon and evening showers and storms to develop, as there will be a little bit of instability from the afternoon heating. However, there is not a lot of moisture around or moving into the state, which will most likely inhibit the development of storms and showers. There is a slim chance that something could develop if there is a little bit of moisture available. If a shower and storm does develop, the lack of deep layer shear means that it will be short lived and sub-severe.

An upper-level low will be shifting east Friday. This shifting low will help to push the ridge over SD to the east as well as the surface trough in the Rockies towards the state. With the ridge starting to move, more moisture will be able to move through the atmosphere towards SD. Additionally, the changing atmosphere will also disrupt the low level jet that is set up over western and central SD. Models vary the timing of the next wave of rain and storm chances mainly because of how fast the models change the low level jet. Models that keep the jet around through Friday morning bring rain and storm chances in over south central SD tonight into Friday morning before more showers and storms come in Friday evening over central SD. Other models that have the low level jet dissipate quicker hold off on the shower and storm chances until the afternoon and evening. This leads to lower confidence in precipitation chances late Thursday night through Friday. Models come into more agreement for more widespread rain and storm chances Saturday morning into Sunday, with 60-80% chance over central SD Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours and a 20-50% chance over northeast SD. One thing that has more certainty is that temperatures will cool down Friday and onward, with Friday in the mid to upper 80s and the weekend in the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level low is forecast to sit over ID/MT/WY through the weekend into the beginning of next week, with the surface trough moving towards SD and settling over the area during that time. Because of this, there continues to be chances for showers and storms to develop Sunday and through the beginning of the work week over central and northeastern SD. Models however vary the location, timing, and intensity of the showers and storms, which causes lower confidence. As we get closer to this time, the details will become clearer, so we will continue to monitor the upcoming model runs to see if they come to more agreement.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southerly wind gusts are forecast to range from around 25 to 30 knots across KPIR/KMBG (and perhaps even KABR) by this afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.