textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will fall into the low 30s over portions of northeastern SD this morning. Patch frost to areas of frost will be possible, with a Frost Advisory in effect.

- Today, continued dry conditions with relative humidity falling to 15 to 30% and southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph will bring high Grassland Fire Danger Index values to portions of central to northeastern SD. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of mainly central SD this afternoon.

- High to very high Grassland Fire Danger is forecast Tuesday and Thursday as winds gust 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations gusting to near 50 mph. Relative humidity over much of the area will fall into the 15 to 30% range.

- High temperatures through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s, highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 30s with light winds out of the northeast. Temperatures tonight are expected to reach the low 30s and support frost development again. A Frost Advisory is in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT across northeast SD. This looks to be the last night with frost potential for the next week at least.

The main concern for the forecast remains elevated fire danger with strong southerly winds today gusting 30 to 40 mph starting later this morning and continued dry conditions. A Red Flag warning remains for south central SD from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT. If RH values drop below forecast, additional counties to the north may be added. A cold front will move through this evening into the overnight to bring northwesterly winds Tuesday that, aided by CAA, are expected to gust 35 to 45 mph, locally higher gusts of 50 mph possible. Another cold front moves through Thursday bringing another round of 35 to 45 mph winds after a calmer Wednesday. 10-20 degrees above average temperatures this week will also contribute to elevated fire danger. The next chance for some widespread precipitation looks to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a low makes its way across ND. The chance of more than a tenth of an inch in the 24 hours ending Sunday morning is about 30% across the forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for SDZ005>008-010- 011-017>023. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-035-045-048. MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046.