textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances (50-70%) return today. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday. A few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation will be possible over northeastern SD and western MN through Wednesday.

- Winds increase tonight and will remain strong through Wednesday morning. At their peak, wind gusts are expected to reach 45-50mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all South Dakota counties Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

- Another round of snow is expected Thursday through Thursday night. There is a 30-40% chance to see two inches of snow or more over parts of central and east central South Dakota, with chances decreasing moving northeast.

UPDATE

Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Above normal temperatures continue today, although highs in the 50s are generally expected to fall short of record highs. There will be some elevated fire weather concerns over parts of central South Dakota today, but some question remains as to the severity. A frontal boundary in the area will provide a sharp gradient in dew points, up to the 40s over northeastern South Dakota to the 20s over south central South Dakota (the latter supporting minimum afternoon humidity around 20%. There uncertainty comes from where the front will line up, as the southern side of the front will likely see Red Flag conditions met (given wind gusts up to 25-30 miles per hour in that area). At the moment, parts of Jones and Lyman counties may see those lower afternoon humidities, but confidence is not high enough to issue a headline at this time.

Precipitation chances return tonight due to the upper-level trough over the western CONUS developing a low pressure center into the Northern Plains. QPF totals will be highest over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota (around a quarter of an inch through Wednesday), decreasing to little to no liquid equivalent over central South Dakota. Precipitation will be majority rain, but the passage of a cold front early Wednesday morning will facilitate a transition to snow. Snow totals through Wednesday continue to trend down, with now just a couple of tenths expected out of this system. While snowfall rates are expected to be light, falling snow combined with gusty winds may create some reductions in visibility at times.

Post-frontal winds on Wednesday will pick up with help from a low- level jet on the backside of the aforementioned low pressure center. Model soundings indicate a decent level of mixing tonight into Wednesday morning, enabling some of these stronger gusts to mix to the surface. As a result, confidence is increasing for broad coverage of 45+ mph wind gusts overnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning, so a Wind Advisory has been issued at this time. The Advisory will be in effect from 9 PM CST tonight through 12 PM CST Wednesday west of Brown and Spink counties, and from 12 AM CST Wednesday through 12 PM CST Wednesday for Brown and Spink eastward (excluding the western Minnesota counties). Winds are expected to diminish in the afternoon Wednesday as the low pressure center and the associated low-level jet progress to the east. Strong winds may hang on long enough to cause some fire weather concerns over central South Dakota in the afternoon, as humidity will again drop into the 20-30 percent range over parts of Jones and Lyman counties. The potential for Red Flag conditions will depend upon how quickly these winds diminish in the afternoon.

Another round of precipitation, this time as snow, is expected to fall over the area, supported by a shortwave aloft. Snowfall amounts have trended upwards over the past 24 hours, with increased coverage of 2+ inches now expected. Median snowfall values through Friday have jumped as high as 4" over parts of central South Dakota. Wind gusts up to 30-35 miles per hour will still be present, and when combined with falling snow could cause some reductions in visibility at times.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected during the TAF valid period. Breezy southeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will be common today as well. By late this afternoon, there will also be areas of -RA/RA developing/arcing across central/north central (KPIR/KMBG) South Dakota, on its way into northeast SD (KABR/KATY). Cannot rule out MVFR VSBY within any heavier showers. Additional coverage of precipitation is expected across northeast South Dakota (mainly the KABR terminal) overnight. After 00Z this evening, west-northwest winds are supposed to develop and increase to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Low-level wind shear potential will exist at times throughout the TAF valid period as well.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017- 033>037-045-048-051.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

MN...None.