textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms tonight, then again Sunday afternoon/night. Main threats include wind gusts up around 60 mph along with quarter size hail.

- Temperatures will remain 5-7 degrees above normal (80s to lower 90s) through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mid-level clouds with bases around 15k feet (give or take) continue across the eastern CWA but look to be exiting over the next few hours, also taking with it any sprinkles associated with them. Still expect to see a lull in precip potential for the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Focus for shower/thunderstorm development later today will shift into eastern WY/CO into the NE panhandle northward into western SD. SPC REFS and HREF ensemble paintball output shows any potential activity moving into central SD generally between 02Z-05Z, then spreading eastward across the CWA during the overnight hours. Areal coverage looks to diminish east of the James River from 09Z to 12Z. Current PoPs generally show this idea where good agreement in the paintball output over central/north central SD gives 60-90% chances for precip, diminishing to 30 percent or less east of the James River after 09Z. MUCAPE overnight generally around 1000-1500 J/KG across central SD into the James valley, with 30-40 kts effective shear. Marginal Risk continues for the overnight hours, with main threats being winds up to around 60 mph and hail around quarter size.

On Sunday, a surface low will develop near the MT/ND border southward across western SD. A warm front will also extend eastward from this low across SD into southern MN. Surface dewpoints still progged to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the region, while cooling aloft occurs later in the day with the approach of a shortwave trough. Expecting scattered storms to develop by late afternoon near the surface low, with activity moving eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms exists again on Sunday.

Surface high pressure builds in across the area on Monday, with lower dewpoints dropping into the 50s for most areas. Much more stable air mass in place on Monday, so a dry forecast is in place for the time being.

Precipitation chances (40-60%) return to the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as shortwave energy moves northeast into the area. Low-level moisture begins to increase once again with dewpoints forecast to reach the mid/upper 60s once again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the daytime hours today. Scattered TSRA/SHRA are expected to move east across the region this evening into the overnight hours. Will use PROB30 to handle this for the time being, although indications suggest northern SD may see higher areal coverage of precipitation vs other areas. Any TSRA/SHRA that moves over a TAF site is capable of brief MVFR/IFR VSBY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.