textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20% chance of light showers this afternoon and evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday afternoon. There is a 20% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph west of the James River Monday afternoon.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be around 10 degrees below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

As of midnight, satellite imagery indicates mid to high clouds stretching from MT and eastward through MN through Canada associated with the surface low currently over southern Saskatchewan, per water vapor. Temperatures have dropped into the mid 30s to the lower 40s, warmest over central SD with winds overall light out of the south/southwest.

By 12Z this morning the high pressure system that was over the region will continue to track southward over NE/KS. HREF and better consensus between the GEFS/ENS indicate the center of the low continuing to track eastward across Manitoba and forecast to be over ND/MN/Manitoba border by 18Z and then tracking southeastward. By 00Z the center of the low is forecast to be over eastern/northeastern ND through northwestern MN. Cams indicate the potential for very light convective showers associated with this low tracking northwest to southeast out of Canada, through ND/MN through the day, and potentially clipping our CWA, mainly James Valley through west central MN late this afternoon and evening (~21-04Z). NamNest, NSSL, and HiResW models still indicate the potential for spotty showers more west of here for portions of central SD. Latest NBM keeps the 15-20% pops James Valley and eastward. So I did blend a little ECAM in there (2 parts NBM 1 part ECAM) to show the potential for spotty convective showers west of here. With lots of dry air below 700mb (inverted V soundings), PWAT values 0.8" and below, and weak forcing, it will be hard to get anything more than light rain or sprinkles or just virga really so low confidence exists. Little to no accumulation expected as probability of QPF>0.01 is 20% or less per NBM. Winds will be out of the southwest this morning ahead of the cold front, turning westerly then northwesterly as the front tracks northwest to southeast across the CWA. The front looks to exit our far southeastern CWA by 06Z or so. Winds will also increase this morning with gusts this afternoon between 20-30kts, highest over north central SD, and diminishing later on this evening and overnight.

Behind the system, high pressure builds over eastern MT Sunday and shifting over the region through Sunday evening, keeping conditions overall quiet with winds shifting westerly then southwesterly Sunday evening/night. During this time, another clipper low will track out of northwestern Canada and southeastward across Canada (and strengthening) with the center of the low over Manitoba/Ontario border by 00Z Monday with its cold front extending westward over southern Canada. By Monday morning, the low is forecast to be over southern Ontario with the cold front extending across north central MN and westward along the ND/SD border. It will then track south and east over the CWA during the morning with winds behind it back in northwest flow. Models do indicate the possibility of rain with this front Monday morning, however, pops are minimal with NBM between 15- 25%. The main concern will be the wind. With CAA steepening the low level lapse rates (strongest CAA over north central SD during the morning and weakening a bit east of the Mo river by the midday) along with pressure rises up to 6mb/6hr, winds will increase Monday morning and remain gusty through the afternoon with gusts between 30 to potentially 40 mph. May need to blend some NBM90th to show for potentially higher gusts closer to time. As of now, probability of wind gusts>45 mph, per NBM is only 20% over the Leola Hills with max gusts potential between 40-50kts, highest again over the Leola Hills. So we will keep an eye out in the upcoming days for any wind headlines. As the previous shift mentioned, drier soils over central SD (especially south central SD) may lead to blowing dust where less rainfall has occurred.

Further into the extended forecast (Tuesday and onward), Clusters continues to indicate the ongoing +PNA pattern with this persistent cutoff low spinning over the eastern portions of Canada and split flow to our west with a ridge over the western CONUS (and trough over southern CA) as the Northern Plains in between these two systems with overall west to northwest flow. Other than slight pops (15%) Tuesday/Wednesday per weak embedded shortwaves, this entire pattern will slowly shift eastward through the end of the week with the Northern Plains along the eastern side of the ridge with overall dry weather forecasted for now per high pressure at surface.

Temps will be up and down over the next week with highs for today warmer, ahead of the incoming low, ranging in the mid 60s (over the Coteau) to the mid 70s. Lows for tonight will be warmer, ranging in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Cooler Sunday behind the weak cold front, with highs overall in the 60s to possibly hitting 70 for some locations along and west of the Mo River. Monday, northern SD will be cooler, closer to the secondary fropa that will pass through, with highs ranging in the upper 50s to the mid 60s, warmest over the southern half the CWA. However the spread is 9-12 degrees per 25- 75th due to low confidence on fropa timing. Behind the front and high building, highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the 40s and 50s. Temps will gradually increase end of next week with this ridge moving closer to the area with highs back up in the 60s to even 70s Friday and Saturday. However, the NBM 25-75th spread is 7-9 degrees due to being far out in the forecast and timing/strength of ridge.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through this forecast cycle. Increasing southwest winds will gust up to 20-25 knots from late morning through early evening. Winds will shift to the northwest by mid to late evening tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.