textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The next round of rain arrives this afternoon into Saturday morning. There is a 50-60% chance to see a quarter of an inch or more through Saturday morning east of the James River.

- Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance to see a half inch of rain or more across the forecast area through that time frame.

- Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a cooldown by mid-week next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s to low 60s with winds out of the east to southeast at 10 mph or less. The main question for today's forecast will be when and where drizzle turns into rain. Low stratus/fog will continue through today and much of Saturday.

A shortwave will make its way into the region today moving generally west to east and this will bring the forcing that transitions us from drizzle to rain. Looking at model soundings, the NAM brings things in around noon for areas west of the James River. This is faster than the RAP and HRRR, and more moist than the GFS. These other models bring the rain in this evening. Precipitation will move into south central SD, moving west and north into north central SD before moving back east to cover eastern SD. Either scenario has precipitation lasting through Saturday morning, moving east and out of the area during the afternoon. Chance of more than a quarter of an inch is 50-60% east of the James River, between 30 and 50% west of the James River to a line between Eureka and Chamberlain, and less than 20% across central SD. Our next chance of rain will be late Sunday night/early Monday morning through at least Tuesday evening as a low level low moves across the ND/SD border. Precipitation amounts with this event are quite a bit higher. Chance of more than half an inch in 24 hours between Monday and Tuesday mornings is 50-70% between the Missouri and Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills.

Temperatures through the weekend will be right around to slightly above average before falling back to slightly below average for next work week. Winds this afternoon across north central SD will gust up to around 30 mph.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR vsby/cigs will prevail late tonight through Friday morning. Improvement to MVFR is expected between 15z and 20z before cigs and vsby fall again Friday evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.