textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight lows could drop below the freezing mark through this week, mainly early Wednesday morning and early Friday morning. Areas that don't get to freezing may still see frost development. Frost/Freeze headlines have been posted for late tonight into Wednesday morning mainly for central and north central South Dakota.

- Rain will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly over central and east central South Dakota. Along and south of U.S. Highway 14, there is a 50-70% chance to see a tenth of an inch or more of rain through Thursday. - Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory headlines remain in place with no changes anticipated at this time. We continue to monitor the latest trends in the cloud cover, which will play into how low temperatures will fall overnight into Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies were a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and 50s on 5 to 15 mph north-northwest winds.

Cloud cover is expected to dissipate/shift away from, at least, the western half of the CWA overnight, allowing for light wind/radiational cooling and temperatures falling to a point where frost/freeze conditions can happen. Ensemble-powered probabilities support the need for Frost/Freeze headlines (30-90 percent chance of sub-freezing temperatures tonight over central and north central South Dakota), so a Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight into Wednesday morning for north central South Dakota (including Brown County in northeast South Dakota). A Frost Advisory has been issued for central South Dakota.

The upper level closed low over the western CONUS is forecast to move through the central plains during the second half of the week. It's track could be close enough to bring some of the northern edge of deformation-zone precipitation up into the far southern portion of the CWA (generally south of a line from Mission Ridge to Milbank) Wednesday night into Thursday. While that is forecast to happen, energy crashing down the backside of the western CONUS upper level ridge is forecast to sweep a strong cold front southeastward through the CWA Thursday/Thursday night. It should be plenty windy behind this fropa, with low level (0.5km) mixing winds progged at 35 to 40 knots in low level CAA. Previous events with 0.5km winds this strong in a setup like this have yielded advisory criteria wind gusts, along with a smattering of sustained 30mph wind for an hour or more. Ensemble-powered probabilities support the potential for advisory strength winds/gusts. A Wind Advisory may be needed for Thursday afternoon/night.

The degree of coldness of the low level airmass advected into the region behind this cold front supports temperatures falling to or below freezing Thursday night (despite ongoing strong northwest winds) and then possibly again Friday evening while transient surface high pressure is centered over the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Friday through Tuesday looks dry with a warming trend forecast to happen. The majority of the extended forecast is dominated mostly by upper level ridging across the northern plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly MVFR ceilings continue, with some breaking of the dense cloud cover with VFR expected at PIR for much of the period, and at most other locations at or before 04Z Wednesday. Light winds of 10kts or less remain.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Freeze Warning from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003>006-009-010-015-016. Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None.