textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for west of the MO River Wednesday as winds increase out of the west to northwest.

- Winds Thursday will be out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Will let the wind advisory expire. Winds have been slowly on the decrease. Turning to late Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning, 1/2km winds in the NAM are running around 50kts. When that mixes out would suspect more blowing dust. Blowing dust model hinting at such.

00z Aviation discussion has been updated below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A series of mainly dry systems moving through the area will keep stronger winds in the forecast for much of the period.

Into early this evening relative humidity values will stay in the 20 to 30 percent range, with winds gusting 30 to 45 mph out of the northwest. Wind Advisories remain for the Leola Hills east through west central MN today, with blowing dust with visibilities down to around a mile at times mentioned. There are a few small areas of blowing dust across central to northeastern SD and western MN, with the most dominant sinking southeast from Ransom and Sargent Counties in ND to Marshall and Roberts Counties. The Red Flag Warnings continue into the early evening hours east of the Missouri River.

We will have a brief break in the strong winds tonight through midday Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure currently set up over eastern SD and western SD moves overhead. Winds will increase out of the south Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to near 40 mph west of the Missouri River. Relative humidity values will fall into the 15 to 25 percent range Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect Wednesday for portions of central South Dakota.

The strong winds will expand across northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday. We will continue to highlight increasing (non-diurnal winds) Wednesday night, increasing out of the southeast.

Winds out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph will shift out of a westerly direction during the day Thursday. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. At this time, limited precipitation is expected. Relative humidity will still bottom out in the 10 to 30 percent range, lowest over central South Dakota. Even on Friday, winds out of the west will gust 35 to 45 mph.

Added low (less than 20%) chances for showers Thursday morning on the nose of the low level jet. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Temperatures will rebound into the 80s Thursday. Blowing dust will be possible again Thursday, but we also have a 20-40% chance of showers. Little to no precipitation is currently forecast, but any higher moisture will help keep dust/dirt a little more in place. A wind shift during the day would be a concern for any ongoing fire. Fire weather and wind headlines will likely be need Thursday. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds weakening and shifting around to southerly by the end of the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004>011- 016>023-034>037-048-051. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-015-033-045. MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.