textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The next round of rain arrives this afternoon, continuing into Saturday morning. There is a 40-70% chance to see a quarter of an inch or more through Saturday along and east of the James River.

- Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday. There is a 40-60% chance to see an inch of rain along the ND/SD border, with rainfall totals decreasing moving south.

- Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a slight cooldown by mid-week next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Shortwave aloft moves overhead today, bringing about the return of rain showers. This rain will move into central South Dakota late this afternoon into the early evening before expanding into northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota tonight. Showers will linger along and east of the James River through at least Saturday morning, finally exiting to the east by Saturday afternoon. Light rain showers will be the main storm mode with this system, and chances for thunder are fairly low (perhaps an intermittent flash of lightning or two at best). With fairly light rain rates overall, expectations are overall fairly low in terms of rainfall totals. Through Saturday, areas between the James and Missouri Rivers will see up to a tenth of an inch, while areas along and east of the James River will see between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Higher end amounts for areas under the heaviest showers sit at around half an inch (20-30% chance of exceedance over far eastern South Dakota as well as over western Minnesota).

After rain moves out Saturday, a bit of a break from the rain will be in order for Sunday. Partly cloudy skies will be overhead, but much of the area will likely see some much-needed sun. The break won't last long however, as early next week, an upper-level trough over the western CONUS will bring about the return of widespread rain chances. With the latest 24 hours of model guidance, there has been a notable shift north in the area of highest rainfall totals. Now, the best chances to see over an inch of accumulation through Tuesday are located in North Dakota, leaving a small area of 40-60% along the state line. Chances decrease moving southward. Naturally chances for half an inch have also decreased, now ranging from 70% in the north (along and north of the US-12 stretch between Aberdeen and Mobridge) to 40% over central and parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Thunderstorms will be possible with this system, and the best chances to see those will be Monday night into early Tuesday morning. There remains some slight signal in probabilistic models for severe weather potential, but that signal has also decrease with the latest forecast cycle.

As the upper-level trough progresses eastward, a cooler airmass will take hold of the region. There is a bit of disagreement on how the depth of the trough will evolve, so current temperature trends cool the region down slightly less than with previous forecasts. Still expect temperatures to get a slightly below late-September normals next week, with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the board. This pattern transition will also provide dry conditions across the forecast area once showers and storms move out Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Ceilings are bouncing around right now, a by product of daytime heating/mixing. Eventually VFR/MVFR cigs will settle into IFR cigs overnight, and rain showers will develop/spread over portions of central and northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. Prior to and after showers move through, there could be a little bit of drizzle around. Late tonight, fog is expected to develop in and west of the Missouri River valley region where clouds clear off. Some reduced visibility in rain showers is also possible later tonight into Saturday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.