textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Rain amounts generally between 1/4 to 1/2 inch and a negligible threat for severe storms.

- Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90.

UPDATE

Issued at 839 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The Freeze/Frost headlines expired back at the top of the hour. Temperatures today, with plenty of sunshine and a developing south breeze, should warm into, at least, the 60s across much of the CWA. The right entrance region of a 100+kts upper jet streak will be lingering over the central/northern plains today. When combined with forecast mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-8C/km this upper forcing feature may be able to generate some isolated/scattered showers/storms up into the Murdo/Pierre area of the CWA this afternoon/early this evening. The most recent HREF and current RAP/HRRR output supports a few showers moving north-northeast into that area. PoPs are already in the forecast to account for this potential. Will probably have to tweak it later on for coverage/timing.

UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

UPDATE for 12z Aviation discussion

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Not much overall going on for the next several days. This mornings frost while still ongoing is only for this morning and the rest of the forecast is dominated by moderating temperatures and a pair of systems Friday.

High pressure moves east today, with return (southerly) flow across the state. The gradient is about 8-12mb across the state, so a breezy (Gusts 20 to 35 mph) pair of days. The first shortwave of note lifts up across the southeast part of the state headed up along the MN/SD state line embedded within southwest flow mid-day Friday. The second wave takes a similar trajectory just slightly to the west Friday night. The short distance between waves means a mainly continuous precipitation mainly east river. Profiles are moist adiabatic/no instability with some shear, so mostly just rain. NBM mean is between 1/4 to 1/3 for the Missouri valley to around 1/2 inch in the Watertown area. The upper trough departs, with zonal flow aloft with increasing heights Sunday/Monday. Thats followed by a deepening trough across the western CONUS, all of which end up pumping warmer air aloft into the region. 850mb temperatures still are a standard deviation above climo, and as such Sun-Tues temperatures are forecast 10 to 20 degrees above normal. NBM dewpoints are also on the rise with broad/weak and sometimes intermittent southerly flow up through the Gulf and across the Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.