textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures to continue through Monday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees above normal, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

- There is a 40-60% chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday night, with most of the precipitation falling Friday afternoon into Friday night as light rain transitions to a wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain, and then to all snow late Friday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

At 19Z the surface weather map showed a weak low over northeastern MN with a stationary front draped over northern MN and southern SD. The weak surface ridge over our forecast area will continue to slowly weaken and sink south through tonight. Snow is rapidly melting with the dewpoints in the 30s and temperatures in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. The maximum snow depth reported yesterday morning by our cooperative observers was 5-6" from near Westport through Clark and Watertown. This morning those values had fallen generally to 2" or less.

Southerly winds return Wednesday, ahead of the area of low pressure to our north and northwest. Winds Wednesday afternoon will be out of the south, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, with the strongest winds across the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota.

The area of low pressure Wednesday night over WY/MT will dive south, with a broad area of low pressure organizing over eastern CO Thursday afternoon. A trough will already extend north across central to northeastern SD Thursday afternoon. Warm air still in place should result in all rain Thursday night into Friday morning.

We'll be monitoring the evolving track of the surface low with each model run, whether the low crosses southeastern SD (12Z GFS) or stays mainly across southeastern NE and IA from 18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday. Given the significant uncertainty in the exact track/strength of the area of low pressure, confidence is low of specific precipitation types and amounts. We'll continue to post social media graphics to highlight this time period of concern. Adding to a wintry mix of precipitation, we also have thunderstorms over our southern counties (SPC Severe Weather Outlook with general thunderstorms). The higher chance of thunderstorms will remain near and south of the surface low. Overall, light rain Thursday night will mix with and change over to freezing rain or snow Friday into Friday evening (all snow by 06Z Saturday). Snow to liquid ratios are around 7:1 or lower, with any snow that falls being more of the wetter/more dense variety. There is around a 50% chance of 1" of snow across the forecast area (slightly less over north central SD), and a 40% chance of freezing rain across and east of the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota. Drizzle or freezing drizzle may be more likely, and we'll continue to fine-tune the specifics over the next few days.

After the exiting low, dry weather is mainly forecast through Monday, along with another falling temperature trend, with highs mainly in the 30s (near normal for this time of year) by next Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

FG/BR potential exists again this evening/tonight, mainly at KABR/KATY, with much less potential over KMBG/KPIR. IFR VSBY possible with the fog. Cannot rule out some IFR CIGs across KABR/KATY in conjunction with the FG/BR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.