textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances (50-70%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday. Up to an inch of snow accumulation is possible over northeastern South Dakota Wednesday.

- Another round of snow is expected Thursday through Thursday night. There is a 30-40% chance to see two inches of snow or more over parts of central and east central South Dakota, with chances decreasing moving northeast.

UPDATE

Issued at 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Sfc ridging poking southward across the Dakotas/MN border region today as held on long enough to give our forecast area another dry and mild day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the 40s and 50s early this afternoon. Quiet conditions will spill over into tonight as this ridge shifts east as a northwest-southeast oriented stationary boundary sits across southwest and south central SD. A developing upper trough across the Great Basin will shift out into the Rockies tonight into Tuesday morning. This will help aid this sfc frontal boundary along with low pressure anchored on it to drift ever so slightly north and east from western SD Tuesday morning into central and northeast SD Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Increasing southeast low level flow will pull in increasing amounts of low level moisture. Parts of the CWA may see an initial bout of drizzle by late morning/midday per latest BUFKIT profiles before the entire column saturates the latter half of the day leading to more widespread rain showers. Temperatures will remain warm enough for rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. SPC actually outlooks northeast SD/west central MN for general thunder on Tuesday. Guidance does hint at some low CAPE/high shear developing by late afternoon across southeast SD into east central SD, so given the dynamics of this upper wave, it wouldn't be surprising to see some elevated convection or at least some rumbles of thunder.

The more impactful situation that will develop with this disturbance will be the windy conditions it produces and the potential for a narrow window of developing elevated fire weather conditions across south central SD. HREF joint probabilities of near red flag conditions developing remain rather low(20-30%) across the far southern periphery of Jones/Lyman Counties Tuesday afternoon/early evening. With the timing of winds switching around from a southerly direction to a westerly direction and increasing as they do so doesn't occur until the evening when RH values will already be recovering from their min values of late afternoon/early evening. Something for later shifts to watch in case the timing changes though. QPF values still shake out similar to previous forecast packages with highest value across northeast SD/west central MN with up to a couple tenths of an inch to perhaps has much as between a quarter to half inch across far northeast SD/west central MN. This will mostly be in the form of rain, but cold air advection kicking in on the backside or wrap-around portion of the system will transition the rain to a rain/snow mix or all snow early Wednesday. As a result of the warm air winning out the longest, accumulations will be under 1 inch from north central SD into northeast SD and west central MN. Parts of the higher elevations of the Prairie Coteau could pick up around 1 inch.

As this system wraps up and shifts northeast late Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday, west to northwest winds will increase up to 30-40 mph. Localized gusts of up to 45 mph could be possible still and we may need to monitor trends for a potential wind headline on Wednesday. However, winds diminish though by the latter half of Wednesday as the gradient relaxes and the cold advection isn't particularly strong during that time. We should see a brief break from the precip by late Wednesday/early Thursday before the next upper wave moves into the region Thursday into Friday. Temperatures by then will have cooled enough that when precip does show up on Thursday, it will be in the form of all snow. Latest guidance does track the better energy with this wave farther south and east of our forecast area. This keep most of the falling/accumulating snow across our southern/southeastern zones. NBM probabilities of seeing greater than 2 inches of snowfall is highest across those zones(along and south of US Hwy 14) and currently ranges from 30-40 percent. So, the latest trends among the guidance with this system are shifting a bit more south and east with the snowfall. Conditions begin to dry out by the end of the week but temperatures will remain rather cool for this time of year with lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period will eventually give way to MVFR CIGs by late Tuesday afternoon as a storm system moves in. There will also be areas of -SHRA/SHRA arcing from northern through northeast SD, possibly affecting KMBG/KABR/KATY. Cannot rule out MVFR VSBY within any heavier showers. Low-level wind shear is also forecast for a short period of time Tuesday morning and inserted mention of this where appropriate.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.