textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers move into central and north central South Dakota this morning, eventually progressing to eastern South Dakota late this afternoon and evening. A few hundredths of accumulation is expected at most.

- Another round of rain will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly over central South Dakota. Over that area, there is a 20-50% chance to see a tenth of an inch of rain through Thursday. - Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota.

- Overnight lows could drop below the freezing mark through this week, mainly early Wednesday morning and early Friday morning. Areas that don't get to freezing may still see frost development.

UPDATE

Issued at 814 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

No changes planned to the today period forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Another round of light showers is moving into central South Dakota early this morning. These rain showers will linger over central and north central South Dakota through the morning and early afternoon before progressing eastward. Expectations are that these showers will then dissipate this evening into the early overnight over eastern South Dakota. In general, rain rates will remain fairly light, and only a couple hundredths of accumulation is expected at the most. Another round comes in on Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper-level low passes to the south. The Aberdeen forecast area will be on the very northern edge of the precipitation from this system, meaning that rain will mainly be concentrated in central South Dakota. This time a bit more accumulation may be in store for areas that see rain, but still only about a 20-50% chance to see a tenth of an inch over central South Dakota.

With near-normal temperatures in place for the next few days, overnight temperatures will flirt with the freezing mark. Early Wednesday morning, temperatures are forecast to fall just below freezing over portions of north central and northeastern South Dakota, although there are still some questions left to be answered as to exactly how cold it will get. Specifically, whether or not lows get to freezing will depend on how cloud cover clears out overnight. The latest REFS guidance does show a decent signal for some clearing over north central South Dakota, so confidence is highest over that area at this time. Further east clouds will likely hang on a bit longer, which will limit the potential to reach 32 degrees. Given the remaining uncertainty, will opt to hold off on any frost or freeze headlines at this time. Thursday morning will be slightly warmer, in no small part due to cloud cover expected, limiting radiational cooling. However, Friday is expected to clear out and once again see portions of the forecast area drop below freezing. Chances to freeze will again be highest along the North Dakota/South Dakota border (~40-70%), but nearly the entire forecast area has a 10% chance or greater to see low below 32 degrees.

Pressure gradient will tighten Thursday behind a low pressure center passing to the north. Strong northwesterly winds will develop as a result. The latest NBM probabilities to reach Wind Advisory criteria (wind gusts greater than 45 miles per hour) peak at 30-50% over parts of central and north central South Dakota, so can't rule out the potential for an Advisory. These wind speeds can often be underdone under northwesterly flow, although the cold air advection component of that bias is not quite as strong as past situations where the NBM has significantly underestimated the wind gusts. Regardless of exact strength, the strong winds will be enough to push Grassland Fire Danger to High over central and north central South Dakota Thursday afternoon.

By Friday and into the weekend, and upper-level ridge will build into the region. Both 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures (~5820dm and 15-18 degrees Celsius respectively) will be over the 90th percentile for mid-October, setting the stage for above normal temperatures to return to the forecast area. While the ridge is in place there will be limited chances for precipitation, so expect a dry weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patches of MVFR CIGs continue across the region, but areal coverage on satellite is less compared to the issuance of the 06Z TAFs. That said, still some uncertainty regarding the overall areal coverage of said CIGs through the remainder of the day before trending to mostly VFR conditions tonight. Also watching an area of -SHRA moving northeast over the KMBG region this morning, with perhaps VSBY down to around 6SM at times. Some of this activity will translate eastward across the area today, but low confidence on overall coverage. That said, VSBY should generally remain VFR in any -SHRA.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.