textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The chance for precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning has lowered to 10-20%. Confidence on precipitation type and placement remains low.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, being 10-20 degrees warmer than normal.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are mostly sunny, amid surface pressure rises. Temperatures are warming into the 30s and low 40s on 5 to 15 mph northwest winds.

Surface high pressure will take its sweet time moving out of the forecast area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Dry weather conditions are expected with ridging over the region both aloft and at the surface.

Still expecting some energy to lift out of this west coast upper level split flow pattern, and move across Nebraska, and perhaps southern South Dakota Wednesday night/Thursday. Guidance continues to trend the low track further south, and the potential precipitation along with it. The probability of the southeastern forecast zones seeing 0.05 inches or more of water equivalent is down to at or below 20 percent. Maintaining a 15-20 percent chance of precipitation (mainly rain) Wednesday night across and south of the U.S. Highway corridor over toward the far southeast corner of the CWA early Thursday morning.

Temperatures through Wednesday night should remain above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

So, a split flow pattern has developed along and west of the U.S. west coast at the start of the period, with an upper level ridge downstream of it over the U.S. Rocky mountains. From Thursday through Friday night, the split flow pattern is forecast to evolve into more of a unified/connected steering pattern that showcases a broad (not overly amplified) upper level ridge stretching from coast to coast. Deterministic GSM's and ensemble clusters analysis suggests that it could take from Saturday to Tuesday morning to move the upper level ridge axis to a position east of the CWA, while new upper level trof/energy digs out a new west coast longwave trof. At some point after 12Z Tuesday of next week, some scrutiny will be needed interrogating potential chunks of low pressure energy (potential rounds of precipitation) lifting out of this western CONUS longwave trof.

Besides a small (20-40 percent) chance of precipitation Tuesday, the extended forecast period is dry and warm. S.A. Ensemble tables for both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems show, at least, 1 standard deviation above normal 850hpa temps for most of the period. And, 25th to 75th percentile ranges for temperature are rather small, lending confidence to the continued above normal temperature forecast being advertised.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Under surface high pressure influence, VFR conditions are forecast at all four terminals through the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.