textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Much above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to elevate fire weather concerns late this afternoon and early evening across parts of central and south central SD.

- A cold front will sweep through late this afternoon and evening and replace those above normal temperatures with values closer to normal or slightly above normal Sunday into early next next week.

- Northerly winds will gust up to 30-40 mph tonight in the wake of the cold front. Any ongoing fires will be influenced by the wind shift and rapid increase in wind speed.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The cold front is hovering around the Hwy 12 corridor at the moment and will quickly push south over the next 3 hours. No major changes are planned to the current forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The upper level ridging that brought exceptional and record breaking warmth to the region the last couple days is will be suppressed south over the next 24 hours giving way to a more progressive, quasi-zonal upper flow pattern across the Northern Plains heading into the new week. Guidance remains fairly convinced that this pattern will remain rather tranquil with very little in the way of any pronounced mid level waves traversing the region within this flow until perhaps later in the work week. Confidence remains low in any noteworthy precipitation chances that any said wave will produce for our area.

In the meantime, temperatures have soared into the 70s to near 80 degrees this afternoon under fairly light to modest northwest winds. RH values across the more critical fire weather areas of central SD have ranged as low as 20-25 percent so far as of early afternoon. With peak heating time still ahead of us, we'll continue to lose some of these values going into the late afternoon hours. Wind gusts may approach a 20-25 mph range this afternoon but they should remain brief and infrequent enough to not require any fire weather headlines. Still something we'll be monitoring closely through the afternoon. A cold front, currently poised just to our north in ND, will sweep south through the forecast area late this afternoon. Northerly winds take hold and increase this evening as a cold air advection pattern kicks in. Timing of the CAA looks to occur during the first half of the evening across our northern zones and closer to mid to late evening across our southern zones. Steep low level lapse rates will allow for stronger wind gusts of 40-45 mph to develop and persist into the late evening and early overnight hours. The sharp change in wind direction, from northwest to northeast, plus the quick increase in wind speeds could favor quick starting and shifting fires if any were to get going. Fortunately, the period of these strong winds will be brief as we should already begin to experience diminishing winds by sunrise Sunday morning.

Can't rule out some passing sprinkles/flurries or light rain/snow showers late tonight into early Sunday in association with the fropa, CAA and some passing mid level energy. Moisture remains rather limited so would expect only very light precip up to 0.05" at best where this activity develops but most locales will likely remain dry. A much cooler air mass will take up residence across the region on Sunday with 850mb temps ranging from -5C in our east to around 0C across our western zones. This will put our temperatures back to about normal if not just slightly above normal with afternoon readings in the 40s to low 50s. With a northerly breeze, it will feel rather brisk, especially during the morning hours. Sfc high pressure will build in during the day and relax the winds by afternoon. After a chilly start to Monday morning, a low level warm air advection pattern develops at the same time as some mid level moisture traverses the area along with some some weak lift. This may be enough for a few sprinkles or high based showers. Beyond those meager precip chances, dry conditions are expected to remain the rule through mid week. Temperatures will recover from the early week cool-down with readings back into the 50s and 60s. Cooler temperatures then are expected to return late in the week in conjunction with that aforementioned low confidence upper wave moving through the region that may bring some precip chances back to parts of the forecast area toward the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/short-lived IFR behind a cold front late this evening. Northerly winds will remain gusty through the night as cold air advects in. Winds will diminish in the morning and ceilings are expected to improve at all sites except KATY by 18z.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.