textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be near to as much as 7 or 8 degrees below normal for early November.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday will warm up to 5 to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming partly sunny across central South Dakota, but remain cloudy/overcast across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. TROWAL-forced rain bands continue to persist and rotate south through the region, mainly centered down the I-29 corridor and Prairie Coteau, on the backside of the large/broad occluded upper low churning over Minnesota. Winds are out of the northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and temperatures were mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

After this last rainband over the eastern/southeastern forecast zones departs the CWA, the forecast is dry for the entire 7-day forecast. Upper level ridging dominates the steering flow winds aloft for the majority of the forecast period. Surface high pressure builds over region tonight, resulting in some fog potential, particularly over portions of the CWA that clear off tonight. Short term guidance is developing another area of low clouds over southern Canada and North Dakota/northern Minnesota tonight and bringing it southward into the CWA mainly between 08Z and 15Z Thursday. Unsure what will happen to any areas of fog (probably dissipate) trying to develop, if/once low clouds spread over it late tonight/early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will remain near normal through Friday. But the low level thermal advection pattern is forecast to transition to a WAA pattern Friday afternoon/evening which persists through the weekend. Warmer (above normal) temperatures then look to hold through the middle of next week. Wind speeds and afternoon relative humidity values appear to behave themselves on the fire weather forecast side of things, as well, for the time being. Not a whole lot to right home about just now in the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR conditions continue at KATY in off and on light rain, with intermittent drizzle happening in between the periods of light rain. KPIR, KMBG and KABR have improved to VFR flying weather. It's possible that KATY may join the VFR crowd by late this evening, if these low clouds continue to move away with the light rain. Whichever TAF sites end up clearing off this evening/overnight, these are the terminals carrying the greatest potential for some light fog/frost. Diminishing winds and copious amounts of surface/near surface moisture from the recent rains set the table for light fog/frost development overnight. REFS guidance indicates there is potential for another round of sub-VFR cigs to push south into the region late tonight/early Thursday morning, potentially impacting KMBG, KABR and KATY. Throughout the TAF valid period, north winds will gradually diminish, going from 15 to 25 knots down to 5 to 15 knots, with the lighter winds out over the Missouri River valley and higher winds out along the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.