textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures will continue through the week. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees above normal, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- There is a 40% chance of light rain late Thursday night, transitioning to a wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain Friday into Friday evening. The chance of 1" of snow or more is limited to 15% or less. The highest chance of freezing rain will be over and east of the Prairie Coteau.

UPDATE

Issued at 802 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Very light rain/sprinkles now confined to just the southeast CWA and have lingering low PoPs in the grids to reflect this potential. Main issue for the overnight will be monitoring development of low clouds and fog which models are still suggesting late tonight towards 12Z Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

At 19Z a 1004mb surface low was set up across eastern CO, with our area in between the low and the dominating high across the northeastern U.S. The area of low pressure to our southwest will extend a weak trough across our forecast area through early Tuesday, before sinking south as the surface low moves across OK/KS and a ridge builds in from Canada and ND resulting in light winds. Plenty of low level moisture will be in place tonight, with patchy for brining the potential for 3-5 mile visibility over portions of northeastern SD late tonight (mainly after 09Z Tuesday).

Highs Tuesday will end up around 5F higher than what is observed this afternoon, topping out in the 40s to low 50s. The lowest temperatures will be across the quickly melting snow over northeastern SD into west central MN. Forecast solutions are again bringing overnight relative humidity recovery to near 100% Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, hinting at the potential for patchy fog again - mainly east of the James River.

Warm air advection will take hold Wednesday into Thursday along with the 500mb ridge sliding overhead. Highs both days in the 50s and 60s. The increased cloud cover Thursday will likely be offset by the limited or lack of snow with respect to holding down temperatures. 850mb temperatures will range from around -5 to -12C by the end of the day Wednesday through Thursday.

We'll be monitoring the track and strength of the surface low to our west moving to western KS by 12Z Friday. Cold Friday air moving in Friday into Friday evening will result in the rain changing to a wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain. Confidence is low on the timing, precipitation type, and specific precipitation amounts at this time. Stay up to date on the latest forecast for late Thursday night into Friday evening. Given the very warm day Thursday, expect any wintry mix to mainly be over grassy surfaces. Rain (30% chance of precipitation) looks to dominate Thursday night before turning into a wintry mix and transitioning to snow on the back side of the surface low as it quickly moves across IA/southern MN by 06Z Saturday. The precipitation amounts have nearly doubled since our last forecast update (from an average 0.1" to 0.2" - lowest over north central SD). Still, the overall chance of precipitation is around 40%, maxing out Friday afternoon. The 00Z EC ensemble guidance was snowing nearly equal chances of freezing rain, rain, and snow for Aberdeen by 21Z Friday, and equal chances of freezing rain or rain at Sisseton and Watertown. We'll keep an eye of this system, but have started to mention it in the HWO and social media.

Our forecast highs Friday and Saturday are still mainly in the 40s (low 50s west of the MO River Saturday), before rebounding back into the 50s for Sunday-Monday as a series of surface lows cross southern Canada and mainly dry weather over our area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of -RA over KPIR with generally VFR VSBY looks to move out of the area around 0100-0130Z. This same area may clip KATY later this evening, so will continue to monitor. No mention of precip in the KATY TAF at this time. Otherwise, focus turns to MVFR/IFR CIGs which are forecast to develop/spread over the region towards early morning Tuesday. Also seeing indications of FG/BR with MVFR/IFR VSBY across the region and have inserted mention of this into the TAFs.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.