textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures into the mid 90s to low 100s return over parts of central and north central South Dakota Sunday. Temperatures are set to cool down to below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Storms may develop along a cold front moving over the area late Monday into early Tuesday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for parts of northeastern and central South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) clips part of far northeastern South Dakota and Traverse County, Minnesota. With these storms, the main severe threats will be hail of one to two inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central and north central South Dakota Sunday, when gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles per hour and relative humidity falls below 30 percent.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Quiet conditions continue across the region thanks to a high pressure system dominant over the area. Current temps range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Smoke aloft continues creating an ongoing hazy sky with HRRR indicating light concentrations over central SD tonight through Sunday. Overall it should not reduce visibility until thicker concentrations move in Monday. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

At 1 PM CDT, it was sunny (smoke aloft also noted). Temperatures are warming through the 80s, for the most part. Light and variable winds across the forecast area, except out over north central South Dakota, where a persistent southerly breeze 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts are happening.

GSM solutions and Ensemble clusters analysis maintain some semblance of western CONUS ridging throughout the seven day forecast, with northwest flow aloft happening over this CWA during most of it. This should support a continuation of western CONUS wildfire smoke aloft advecting across this region, along with a couple of cold frontal passages to help keep the really warm air from building back into the CWA for any sort of prolonged period of time. Model guidance maintains height falls over the northern plains during the early to middle portion of next week, when one of these cold frontal passages is progged for Monday. Models are progging it to be too warm aloft Sunday afternoon/evening across north central South Dakota (700hpa temps +16C to +18C), despite the ~1000J/kg of CAPE and 20-30 knots of deep layer shear showing up along the boundary out west river Sunday evening. When the front is working through eastern South Dakota Monday afternoon/evening, the deep layer shear is even stronger (~30-45 knots), tied to ~1500-2000J/kg CAPE. And, models have progged the mid-level warmth to cool down enough Monday evening to wear updrafts could eventually break through the weaker mid-level capping inversion and lead to something potentially supercellular in nature (current SPC marginal/slight risk in place for this on Day 3). The next chance at precipitation could come Thursday/night, as models prog another frontal passage at that time.

Other than tomorrow (Sunday), west river, temperatures do not appear to get too out of hand during this 7-day forecast cycle. Temperatures in the 90s to around 100F degrees (10 to 15 degrees above normal) are forecast throughout and west of the Missouri River on Sunday (hottest day of the period). Prior to the frontal passage on Monday, highs in the 80s to low 90s are expected, cwa-wide. Then much cooler conditions (near to 10 degrees below normal) are progged in the deterministic/ensembles solutions for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the Monday frontal passage. There is supposed to be another frontal passage on Thursday, but overall, it appears the airmass over the region will moderate a few degrees each day from Thursday through the end of the period, running generally near to as much as 10 degrees above normal.

Southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are forecast over the region on Sunday. Across north central South Dakota, where things are D2-3 drought stricken, these windy conditions will combine with dry fuels and RH values expected to drop below 30 percent, as well as temperatures running up into the 90s, to perhaps as high as 100F degrees, to produce high to very high Grassland Fire Danger indices.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Smoke continues aloft over the region with the possibility of light concentrations of smoke near the surface this evening through Sunday over portions of central SD, mainly affecting KPIR/KMBG. Slight reduction to visibility is possible if it becomes thick enough. Southerly surface winds will increase Sunday with gusts to around 25-30 kts across the entire region.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.