textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation moves into mainly north central to northeastern SD/west central MN today. Mainly dry weather will continue over south central SD.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 40-50 mph today, particularly over portions of central SD. Those driving high profile vehicles are asked to drive with caution. A Wind Advisory is in effect for central and east central SD from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT.

- The combination of strong winds and dry conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions over portions of south central SD, where relative humidity falls into the 30-40% range this afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning, and no changes have been made at this time. Main forecast concern today is strong northwesterly winds, for which a Wind Advisory is in place this morning over much of central and north central South Dakota. In that area, gusts this afternoon may reach as high as 45 to 55 miles per hour. Light rain showers are also moving southeast across northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this morning. Expectations are that additional showers will develop and move into the forecast area this afternoon and evening. This additional development will be similar to ongoing showers in both their scattered nature and that rain rates will be fairly light. Some weak thunderstorms may be possible as well with the later development, but severe storms are not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the region are in the upper 50s to low 60s. Showers and weak thunderstorms continue to move northwest to southeast across north central and eastern SD. No storms are severe at this time. These storms are expected to continue for the next couple hours.

70-90% chances for showers and storms return today. Additionally, winds out of the northwest will gust 40 to 45 mph in central SD before storms begin. There is a 70-80% chance of gusts higher than 45 mph mainly south of Hwy 14. Gusts closer to 35 to 40 mph are expected west of the James River. Some storms could pull down some stronger wind gusts, however, forecast lapse rates are generally less than 7 C/km which would make this more difficult to accomplish. Some small hail will also be possible with these storms. There is a Wind Advisory in place over central SD and portions of east central SD from 10 AM CDT through 9 PM CDT. The next chance for more widespread precipitation is Saturday as a low pressure system moves across to our south. Pops of 60-80% currently cover most of central and east central SD. There is a chance some storms could become severe. We will keep an eye on this over the next several days.

Temperatures continue to be around to as much as 10 degrees below average for this time of year. Along with today, Thursday and Sunday are expected to be the coolest with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds don't look to be anything out of the ordinary for at least the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Light rain showers are making their way into the forecast area early this afternoon, and are expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening. While rain rates will generally be light, these showers may occasionally lower ceilings to MVFR levels and cause minor reductions in visibility. Can't rule out weak thunderstorms this afternoon either, although any that form are likely to be short lived. For the moment have only included thunderstorm chances in the KMBG TAF due to slightly higher confidence and lightning observed off of satellite upstream. Amendments to other sites to include thunder mentions will be issued if needed.

The other potential aviation concern today are strong northwesterly surface winds today, coming out of the northwest. Winds will be strongest over central and parts of north central South Dakota, where gusts will top out around 45 knots. Winds will begin to die down this evening, eventually reaching around 10 knots gusting to 15 overnight and remaining northwesterly.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-009-015>018-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None.