textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 60s and 70s through Monday are 15 to 30 degrees above normal for late March.

- Winds continue to diminish from west to east becoming light and variable overnight. This will also progressively lessen the fire weather concerns.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two. Widespread moisture unlikely.

UPDATE

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds have subsided as a surface low pressure trough moves into the region the region. While a very dry air mass remains overhead, the fire weather concerns are lessened and the Red Flag over northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota has been allowed to expire. No other changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Portions of the Red Flag warning have been allowed to expire. An updated aviation discussion is included below.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds continue to rapidly decrease this evening. There are still a few observation sites in the lee of the Prairie Coteau with gusts to 30-40 mph but the downward trend continues. Therefore the wind advisories have been let to expire. The red flag warning continues across parts of central South Dakota until 7 pm and northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota until 9 pm.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

NSSL-WRF was pretty spot-on in its wind depiction for the east today with 70 mph peak winds along the Coteau. Hwy 14 south overachieved with its mixing component as evidenced by most of the obs in Hand and Lyman county which are still gusting over 50 mph. Still expect winds to fairly quickly diminish from west to east this afternoon, especially after 21z when the western expansion of the wind advisory expires.

Latest 12z model runs of sfc dust continue to show an area of dust concentrating into parts of south central SD and east central SD tonight into Sunday. Winds will be fairly light on Sunday, so think hazy skies are the more likely outcome of what seems to be suspended dust moving up from the central plains and front range of the Rockies on the south side of the warm front tonight.

Another low moves into SD/NE on Monday. An upper low moving into MT/ND concurrently helps to suppress the ridge, but any associated precip remains north of this cwa. Current track of the sfc low keeps winds on the lighter side until Monday night/Tue morning when breezy northerly winds kick up behind the low with the cold front. The disjointed nature of the strongest winds/warmest temps/driest air may keep the region out of the worst of the fire weather concerns. Highs into the 60s and 70s through Monday fall back into the 40s for Tuesday through Saturday. There are no strong signals for widespread precipitation over the next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through this next 24 hour forecast cycle. A sfc frontal boundary will linger in the area today, leading to light and variable winds.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.