textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow over central SD this afternoon will expand across northeastern SD and west central MN by mid afternoon, and linger into tonight. A dusting to around an inch or two of snow is forecast.

- Low pressure from the northwest will bring strong winds, although confidence is low on specifics, gusts of 30 to potentially 40 mph over central SD.

- There is a 40% chance of light rain Thursday into Thursday evening. A wintry mix of rain or snow is possible near the ND/SD border.

- Another area of low pressure will bring a 40 to 60% chance of mainly snow this weekend. High and low temperatures Sunday into Monday will be about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 950 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Updated precip chances for the light snow in south central SD. Otherwise, the forecast is on track for the morning hours.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Our break from light snow is short lived, as light snow is currently being indicated on the radar from central SD through the MO River of Dewey County. The chance of precipitation has been increased slightly across central SD to account for this.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Band of snow mostly along and north of the SD/ND state line and continues to weaken. Mid and high clouds expected to remain in place prior to the arrival of a more transient area of snow as a low develops to the south today. Overall not much has changed with this feature with an NBM mean of 1/2 to 1.5 inches, while the 75th percentiles runs up closer to 2-3 inches. No headlines as such.

Wednesday, several higher resolution models indicate that while we're under weak surface high pressure between two systems, with weak subsidence, cold mid temperatures result in steep lapse rates and instability thanks to mid March sunshine. NAM squeezes 1-200 j/kg CAPE through about about 6 to 12kft, though the GFS profiles are more stable overall. Will keep NBM below mention POPs but may need to adjust sky cover for scattered cumulus in the future if it is in fact as unstable as these profiles suggest.

Focus then shifts to a clipper for Thursday. Confidence is not good, with all deterministic models showing variation in track/intensity, from the GFS 990mb low over Fargo to the NAM pushing a weaker low through the northeast of South Dakota, to the EC which has an even weaker low moving northwest to southeast across the state before deepening, to the Canadian which drops the low down through Omaha. This creates a huge range in NBM winds, with a 25th-75th percentile spread of 15 to 25 mph. Will stick with what NBM has populated as its difficult to pick winners and losers from the data provided. The high end/greatest impact to winds would be from the GFS with a BUFKIT mixed wind depiction of deep mixing and unidirectional flow, supporting 60kts to the surface. Again, that's one extreme, while the other deterministic models would support much much less intense winds. As for moisture with this feature, again its a low confidence forecast with placement and timing. Will continue with NBM which is just a few hundredths. Another potential consideration is the NAM indicating steep mid level lapse rates continue to push for potential convection near the low with northeast CWA BUFKIT profiles indicating some CAPE, strong winds and freezing levels down to around 1kft. Will need to continue to evaluate for snow squall potential but confidence given model spread is too low at this time to start advertising.

We will be under another weak high until the next system for Saturday. This one is taking on more of a Colorado low type look but with a more shallow and transient trajectory as the shortwave comes down from the northwest. Probability of exceeding 6 inches with the weekend system currently stands at 30-40% along the northern tier of the state into western Minnesota. Thats a slight downwards tick from the previous runs of the NBM with a shift northwards in the focus area for higher snowfall amounts.

That is also during a timeperiod in which we will see well below normal temperatures, with GEFS 850mb temperatures a standard deviation below climo. It should be noted GEFS mean is around -8 to -16C, while deterministic EC/GFS are well aligned mid day Monday at -12 to -20C. Given we're still talking a week away, will stick with NBM which currently has highs/lows Sunday/Monday running about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions at PIR/MBG initially this morning will deteriorate to MVFR by late morning as light snow moves in and expands east. MVFR conditions will return to ABR by 21Z and continue until 06Z Wednesday, and by around 16Z at ATY and remain through the rest of the TAF period. Winds through the period will remain around 10kts or less.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.