textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation, in the form of flurries or light freezing drizzle will remain possible through the early morning hours. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Above normal temperatures (5 to 25 degrees) Wednesday through at Monday of next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday and then again Monday, with highs in the 40s (northeast/north central SD/western MN) to near 60 (central SD).

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The latest surface weather map shows our weak surface through over south central SD into southwestern MN. Light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow or flurries, but with pockets of freezing drizzle, remain over far eastern to southeastern SD. Little to no additional accumulation is expected. Precipitation chances will continue to diminish early this morning as the weak surface low exits across IA. High pressure will be directly overhead by 18Z, with relatively light winds during the daytime hours today.

Our stratus deck of low to mid clouds remains across our area and extends through ND and into central Canada. Forecast models may be too quick to mix out and diminish some of these clouds. As a result, we've increased the cloud cover forecast through this evening. We'll be watching for the Canadian low organizing over northern Alberta this morning to slide across Ontario tonight, pushing a warm front across the Dakotas into western MN.

A shallow cool and moist layer will inhibit better mixing Thursday. The NAM, as is typically the case, is showing a bit more low level moisture. Increased mixing would not only result in higher temperatures, but allow for stronger winds in excess of 35kts to push to the surface. At this point we have wind gusts maxing out around 25kts over central SD Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will top out 20-25 degrees above normal. 40s will be common for highs, with 50s over much of central South Dakota. Fire weather concerns will creep back into the forecast Thursday over portions of south central SD (mainly south and west of Pierre). High Grassland Fire Danger Index Values are expected over Jones County. This is where temperatures will rise into the low 60s, relative humidity values will fall into the 40 percent range, and winds will be out of the west-northwest with gusts of around 25kts in the afternoon. Elsewhere, lingering snow on the ground, or higher relative humidity values will limit fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A northwest flow regime is in place for the late in the work week and weekend. A mild, modified Pacific airmass is in place initially Thursday night/Friday morning before a cold front pushes through by mid-day Friday. Cold advection is briefly strong but short lived, with the Arctic front stalled across the area late Friday before it shifts back east as a warm front. A weak clipper/northwest flow wave follows, with a subtle ripple in the 850mb temperature gradient. That is followed by another push of mild air aloft for Sunday/Monday. 850mb temperatures Monday are up around 10-11C in the GFS/Canadian, but about 5 degrees cooler in the EC. Thereafter models diverge in whats going on with the low level airmass.

Generally speaking all this means temperatures back above average. NBM 25th-75th still has a significant range (about 10F), especially for the weekend/next week. While the expectation is for frontal clearing with Fridays frontal system, NBM is rather cloudy thereafter. And given how warm it is aloft, any melting/modification of the snow pack would trap quite a bit of moisture in the boundary layer, so this would not be unexpected.

As for precipitation, overall not much expected from the northwest flow regime. There was a system out in the middle of next week in yesterdays deterministic guidance, however they have shifted away from a Colorado low/TROWAL type system, to something that would be more representative of a split flow regime. This change, which is also not unexpected as we are talking about the 180+ hour timeframe yesterday and still at the edge of what deterministic guidance should be used for with any degree of reliability now, means while that will we still could see moisture, its unlikely we'll see any impactful amounts. That said, there is a period where the NBM precipitation type is freezing rain Tuesday night. While possible, NBM forecast highs in the 30s to 40s with moisture around seems improbable that near surface and ground temperatures at night would manage to drop below freezing after a weeks worth of milder temperatures. Freezing rain also goes against the NBM's own precip type probabilities, with rain/snow the more likely outcomes for KABR/KATY.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs will prevail through Wednesday morning. MVFR stratus is rapidly spreading south over the region tonight. Cigs at KPIR should fall again within the next couple of hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.