textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain transitions to snow this morning, mainly accumulating over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota through this afternoon. Up to 2" broadly expected, with some localized areas in northeast South Dakota possibly seeing up to 4".

- Strong winds continue this morning, gusting between 45 and 55 miles per hour. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all South Dakota counties through 12 PM central today. Winds are expected to decrease this afternoon.

- The combination of strong winds and falling snow will reduce visibility over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota this morning, down to a half to a quarter of a mile possible at times. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota through 3 PM central today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Keeping a close eye on wind observations early this morning as the low pressure center makes its way in. Seeing some isolated, brief gusts up above 55 mph along the frontal boundary, but for the most part gusts remain between 45-50 mph. This is in line with the expectations from the Wind Advisory currently in effect for all South Dakota counties, which is set to expire by 18Z this afternoon. Observations are also indicating that mainly rain is falling early this morning, and temperatures are expected to remain warm enough overnight to continue that trend out ahead of the front.

Still anticipating a transition from rain to snow later this morning as the front passes through the area and temperatures drop. Snow is mainly expected to stay over northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota, with central and north central South Dakota remaining dry after this initial rain push overnight. A southerly shift in high- resolution model guidance has significantly increased the amount of snow that is expected once the transition occurs. What was once a forecast of less than one inch across northeast SD/western MN now sits at up to 2" from Brown county and east. Portions of Day and Marshall counties may see even higher, up to 4" in total through the event. The additional factor that needs to be considered with this system is that during the time frame when the heaviest expected snowfall will be (this morning between 6 am and noon central), the area will be hanging on to the strong northwesterly winds mentioned above that have prompted the Wind Advisory. Therefore, falling snow will combine with these winds to reduce visibilities, at times less than half a mile. Due to these visibility reductions and the increased snowfall totals, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of northeastern South Dakota (Brown County and east) as well as western Minnesota from 12Z through 21Z. Consideration was given to a Blizzard Warning, but confidence was not quite high enough in the consistency or longevity of snowfall rates sufficient to cause extended visibility reductions of a quarter mile or less, particularly with no snow currently on the ground. However, conditions remain borderline, and it would not be entirely surprising to see some areas reach that quarter mile visibility at some point this morning.

Shifting focus to central South Dakota today, low post-frontal dew points (down into the low double digits by the afternoon) will once again facilitate afternoon humidity values between 20-30%, with the lowest located over Jones and Lyman counties. This combined with the strong winds may cause some elevated fire weather concerns over that area this afternoon. However, winds are set to decrease this afternoon through this evening, meaning that the strongest winds will not line up with the lowest humidity. It will depend a little bit upon how long the winds are able to hang on, but at this time Red Flag conditions are not anticipated today despite the elevated concerns.

Looking to Thursday, previous forecasts had focused on the potential for a band of snow over parts of central South Dakota. Latest model guidance indicates that this band has shifted south, nearly out of the forecast area entirely. As it stands now, only a couple of tenths of snow is expected, and if this southerly trend continues central South Dakota will remain dry. There is some signal for some light snow over northeastern South Dakota on Thursday lingering from the departing low pressure center, but little to no accumulation is expected in that area on Thursday at this point.

After these precipitation systems move out of the area, the new upper-level pattern of a trough over the western CONUS will lead to normal to slightly below normal temperatures for mid-February through the weekend. Pattern will begin to shift once again early next week, increasing temperatures to slightly above normal. At this time, dry conditions are expected through the weekend, and there are no systems beyond this weekend that are worth diving into just yet.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SHRA/SHRA and -RA/RA will continue across the KABR/KATY terminals through the overnight period before switching to -sn/sn early Wednesday morning with generally MVFR VSBY expected within moderate precipitation. CIGs will generally be MVFR as well, although IFR cannot be ruled out at times. Precipitation has switched to -SN/SN at KMBG and will continue for a couple more hours before ending, with IFR VSBY possible. KPIR will be least affected by all of this, and may in fact be primarily VFR through the TAF period.

Strong west-northwest surface winds have already begun across KPIR/KMBG and will eventually spread into KABR/KATY through the overnight hours. Gusts from 35 to 45 knots can be expected. Once the rain switches to snow at KABR/KATY, the potential for occasionally significant reductions in visibility in falling/blowing snow will develop.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ006>008-011-021.

Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003>011- 015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-046.