textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air moves in tonight and persists through the weekend. At its coldest, wind chill values bottom out from 30 below to 45 below zero tonight through Friday.

- A 20-40% chance for light snow Friday afternoon/night, mainly south of Hwy 212. Accumulations expected to be less than an inch.

- Slightly moderating temperatures early next week into the teens and 20s, above zero!

UPDATE

Issued at 915 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Extreme Cold Warning wind chill values (-40F or lower) have settled into north central and northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota as a 1045+hpa arctic-sourced surface high pressure descends into the northern plains. Gradually, wind chill values between 35F below and 50F below will spread a bit further south and west into the forecast area tonight. Headlines remain in place. No changes planned to the tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Arctic air continues to spill southward into the CWA, with steady/slowly falling temps now into the single digits below zero across the northern CWA. A few locations across the far northeast are already -10 or colder. Wind chills ranging from 30 below to 40 below zero are becoming more widespread across the northern CWA, but Cold Advisory is already in effect until 00Z to cover this. Switchover to Extreme Cold Warning occurs at 00Z, with a Cold Advisory kicking in across the southwest CWA. The latest apparent temperature (wind chill) forecast still lines up fairly well with tonight's advisory/warning placement, so no changes there at this time.

The center of the arctic air mass will be overhead on Friday, with rather light winds and bitterly cold temperatures remaining below zero. A few records for coldest high temperatures may be in jeopardy. Any potential for cold headlines Friday night through the weekend looks a bit marginal at this time, so no extensions/additions to headlines further into the weekend and will handle it as time zero approaches.

Moderating temperatures arrive by early next week as we warm back into the teens and 20s, but don't see any real significant warm ups as we stay in northwest flow aloft with rather cold air in place over the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing conditions will be VFR conditions. That being said, temporarily through ~03Z, there will be the potential for a couple bands of light snow/blowing snow at KATY. Beyond that, the snow potential really subsides and wind speeds decrease. All four terminals should lose the gustiness prior to 06Z, with a steady west-northwest wind between 5 and 15 knots expected to establish during the overnight and continuing into Friday morning before winds go light and variable Friday afternoon. Between 21Z Friday and 00Z Saturday, the potential for light snow begins to creep into the KPIR TAF. Precipitation chances/confidence are not high enough yet to mention in the KPIR TAF. Stay tuned.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.