textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Southerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph today shift to the northwest Tuesday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This leads to elevated fire weather concerns over central SD Tuesday afternoon.

- A storm system will bring the potential for snow on Wednesday. Low confidence on the location of the rain/snow line and snow amounts at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The main highlights through Wednesday will be elevated fire danger concerns over central SD Tuesday and the potential for light snow (and/or a narrow band of snow) setting up somewhere over the CWA Wednesday. Low confidence on exact amounts as this time and location.

For today, northwest flow continues aloft over the region, being on the downstream side of a broad ridge that will flatten as it continues to shift east through this evening. High pressure at the surface will be over western Ontario by 12Z with its ridge axis, south of this low, shifting eastward and exiting the eastern CWA through the day. With this, a steeper pressure gradient sets up over the CWA between this exiting area of high pressure and a surface lee trough/warm front to our west. With this, winds will continue to shift out of the southeast this morning, becoming southerly by this afternoon through the evening. This return flow will help bring in warmer air from this ridge but really only for south central SD as James Valley and east will still be under the cooler air mass from the trough to our east. So the spread in highs across the CWA will be about 30 degrees, ranging from the 20s James Valley eastward to the 30s and 40s west of here, with the potential for 50 degrees over far south central SD. RAP 1000-500mb RH does indicate drier air spreading northeastward over central SD this afternoon with NBM afternoon RH values between 30-40%. Luckily winds will not be too big of an issue today, however, the GFDI is in the high category for portions of south central SD today.

This evening through Tuesday morning, a low will track across ND/Canadian border, with the center over northern MN by 12Z Tuesday. During this time, its warm front will track west to east across the CWA, followed by a weaker trough. Winds will then shift from southerly to more southwesterly, which leads to a few hours of potential downsloping winds along the eastern side of the Coteau overnight before winds shift westerly early Tuesday morning behind the trough. HREF indicates gusts potentially of 35 to 45 mph from 03Z-06Z or so with NBM max gust potential of ~40kts. So I blended NBM/NBM90 between 03-12Z to show for this. Winds will overall increase anyways across the CWA through the day due to winds aloft increasing on the backside of the upper level portions of the low, a steep pressure gradient, and CAA as the cold front will track northwest to southeast over the CWA Tuesday morning through the midday. 925mb CAA looks to be strongest between 12-18Z east of the Mo River with NBM wind gusts ranging from 25-35kts by 18Z and diminishing. Winds will most likely need to be increased as NBM max gusts indicates 40-50mph. Went with the previous shift and did not mess with the temperatures on Tuesday for now. HREF does show temps falling with the passing of the fropa both at the surface and aloft over north central to northeastern SD earlier than what NBM is showing as NBM shows it more stalling out with temps not falling until diurnal cooling. With the gusty winds, RH min values at or below 40% over south central SD, along with dry fuels, The GFDI is high to very high across central SD. Also HiRES models do suggest locations along the ND/SD/MN border could be clipped by light snow on the southern extent of this low Tuesday morning with NBM keeping pops minimal at 15-25%. If the low ends up tracking more south, so will this southern extent of the precip.

By Wednesday morning, high pressure will sink in from the north and over the ~ND/MN border by 12Z continuing to track southeast through the day. Northerly winds will switch back around out of the east and southeast as a low sets up over WY/SD/NE border paired with a stronger shortwave aloft. Through Thursday morning, this low will track southeast across SD/NE border then NE. This brings the potential of a narrow band(s) of snow along the northern gradient of this low and between the high to our northeast. The main question is where this higher qpf/snowfall will fall. For example, EC and EC AI show a northwest to southeast oriented line or a couple of them from north central to east central SD with QPF amounts (10:1) at or less than 0.10" (EC AI is trending a bit further south in the bands). GFS has a couple of narrow bands, one from ND through far northeastern SD/western MN and one over south central SD with QPF amounts 0.10- 0.25". NAM by far is the most aggressive showing a line of QPF from north central and tracking through the James Valley with QPF of 0.4 to 0.5", bullseyed over the JRV. Lastly RDPS have a very narrow of QPF from Corson southeastward through Sioux Falls of 0.10-0.20" So as you can see, models are all over the place. Snowfall amounts (10:1) all range between 1-2 with the exception of the Nam which is showing a potential of 4-6" within the narrow band. Looking at ensemble data, ENS has half inch or less across the entire CWA with GEFS of 1-2 James Valley and eastward. However, both NBM/WPC have really cut back QPF totals and very much more broadbrushed with the latest run. Probability of 0.10" or more is 30-40% in a southeast oriented line from north central SD through Watertown with prob of snow>2" at 25% or less. 90th percentile would be 2-3" east of the Mo River. We will get a better idea once more of the mesoscale models come in or if we get any enhanced localized lift aloft to increase totals. Right now south centrals SD looks to fall as light snow first, transiting to rain, however, it will be very temp dependent at that time. Winds luckily will not be too much of an issue, with gusts of 15-25kts, highest over central SD. So blizzard conditons are not anticipated for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals with winds becoming southerly.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.