textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening, ending with the loss of daytime heating. Another round of light spotty showers is expected Thursday afternoon, over mainly south central to northeast SD and west central MN. Precipitation generally under 0.25in.

- High temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal Thursday, topping out mainly in the 50s. The warmest day will be Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 834 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Isolated/widely scattered light showers continue to move southeast across the CWA while decreasing in areal coverage. Although, northern extent of precip taking a bit longer to clear the area compared to what was in the forecast, so delayed the exit of showers just a bit longer this evening. Will also see decreasing clouds later tonight and areas that stay clear the longest will get chilly once again, likely dropping into the upper 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The latest surface weather map shows a weak surface low set up west to east across northern SD. This feature will slowly sink south across NE and far southeastern by 03Z. Radar and satellite imagery show small areas of showers and thunderstorms becoming more abundant. While lightning and winds gusting 35-45mph will be the main concern with any stronger shower or storm, small pea sized hail will also be possible. A few locations over mainly western and central SD are already indicating the potential for small hail with ongoing small storms. The highest chances of lightning will be west of the MO River through mid afternoon. While most locations with these small off and on showers remain limited, ABR was able to pick up a quick 0.01" prior to 18Z. The loss of the daytime heating will bring our popcorn shower and thunderstorm activity to an end.

Another round of these mainly spotty showers is anticipated Thursday with our steep lapse rates once again. The thunderstorm coverage looks a little more limited though. Temperatures Thursday (lowest over the next week) will be around 5F less than what occurs today, topping out mainly in the 50s - or around 10F below normal for this time of year. High pressure over south central Canada will sink over the eastern Dakotas Friday morning, and along the SD/MN border Friday evening.

Low pressure hugging the U.S./Canadian border between MT, Alberta, and Saskatchewan Friday evening will shift east across ND/Manitoba by midday Saturday. Warm air advection will result in highs in the 60s to low 70s Saturday (warmest expected over the next 7 days). Other than the light popcorn showers today and Thursday afternoon, the next chance of precipitation will be over mainly northeastern SD (25% chance) Saturday night as the surface low tracks a cold front across the area as the low itself exits across Ontario. A secondary trough looks to sink down through ND Sunday night and over at least our eastern counties Monday. We'll see if there is enough moisture to promote any shower activity.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail during the next 24 hours. Additional -SHRA/-TSRA coverage is expected mainly between 17Z and 02Z of the TAF valid period, including "TEMPO" MVFR vsbys/cigs in heavier showers/storms Thursday afternoon. Unlike Wednesday, boundary layer winds on Thursday will be a bit stronger (northwest winds 10 to 20 knots sustained, gusting to 25-30 knots) outside of any convectively driven wind gusts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.