textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system brings strong winds to the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts could potentially exceed 60-65 mph across central SD and approach 60 mph across northeast SD/west central MN. A High Wind Warning has been issued for all of central and northeast SD and west central MN.

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions in combination with the very strong winds will raise fire weather concerns for Thursday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for central SD.

- Another area of low pressure will bring a 50 to 80% chance for snow or a mix this weekend. High and low temperatures Sunday into Monday will be about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A weak disturbance continues to trek through our far eastern zones early this afternoon bringing with it an area of clouds and brief light snow showers to far northeast SD/west central SD. Strato-CU has also formed across central sections of SD with a few sprinkles not out of the question through late afternoon. Sfc ridging comes more into focus tonight leading to some breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s tonight which is about normal.

Confidence continues to increase around the clipper system that will track through the region on Thursday and Thursday night. Guidance seems to be more fixed on a low pressure track from northwest to southeast from western ND from Thursday morning/midday to eastern ND/northwest MN Thursday afternoon and evening. The GFS/EC remain similar in strength, timing and track while the Canadian is slightly weaker and slower in timing. The NAM is the farthest north and east with the track and closer to the Canadian border. The eventual outcome of this will dictate where the strongest core of winds set up along withe placement of some of the precip. Warmer air will surge north into our area overnight into tomorrow ahead of this system with readings mainly in the 50s to mid 60s. A strong cold front is progged to sweep south and southeast through the area Thursday afternoon. An initial bout of cold air advection will kick in during the first half of the afternoon with 850mb temps falling from +3C to +9C to 0C to +5C by the end of the afternoon/early evening and eventually subzero after 00Z Fri. So, there may be a couple of surges of strong winds. BUFKIT soundings are quite impressive and reminiscent of a strong wind event in December with the top of the mixed layer showing speeds in excess of 70-80+ knots. Decided it would be best for messaging purposes to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning across central SD or issue a new High Wind Warning for our eastern zones. Elevated fire danger will still exist across central SD Thursday afternoon with RH's falling into a 20-35 percent range, with particular focus across south central SD where RH's will be the lowest and temperatures will be warmest. Nothing overly impressive for fire wx concerns but the very strong winds give pause to the whole situation. Decided to leave the Fire Weather Watch in place for now.

This system is progged to pass out of the region by Friday morning. Cold air advection remains in place leading to chilly, below normal temperatures on Friday. Most of the day will remain dry before the next system is progged to begin pushing moisture into our western zones as early as the afternoon or early evening hours. The latest NBM iteration continues to paint a broad-brushed area of 50-80 percent PoPs across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend. There still remains a lot of uncertainty in the track and strength of this system. Temperatures should be cold enough for mostly a snow p-type event. However, uncertainties still in the temperature profile continue to show the potential for a rain/snow line to set up somewhere in the vicinity of our forecast area, particularly across our southern zones. Wherever this sets up, if it comes to fruition, will dictate snowfall amounts and who gets more and who gets less. So, more to come on this system after we get beyond Thursday's clipper system. Much colder air does look probable in the wake of the weekend system. Single digit overnight temperatures and daytime readings in the teens and 20s will be possible late in the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals the remainder of today into tonight, with the exception of KABR, who may see some brief MVFR cigs early this afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions will return Thursday morning, especially at KABR/KATY/KMBG terminals as a low pressure system tracks to the north across ND. Light rain/snow showers will be possible during the morning hours through the end of this TAF cycle. Low level wind shear will be possible at KATY/KMBG terminals Thursday morning as a westerly component to the wind kicks in and increases just off the sfc.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017- 033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM Thursday to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ006-018.

MN...High Wind Warning from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.