textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity this afternoon. - A band of snow Friday night through Saturday morning will bring a 20% chance of 2 inches or more of fluffy snow south of a line from Mobridge to Redfield. The main focus area for snowfall amounts of around 2 to 5 inches of snow is southwest of a line from Onida to Miller through Jones and Lyman Counties. - Cold air will remain in place through Sunday. The coldest temperatures will be Sunday morning, with lows of -5 to -20. Wind chills of -20 to -35 are forecast Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The surface trough currently extends from northwestern SD through western NE/western KS. We've really noticed improved visibilities this afternoon with the ongoing precipitation. Our wintry mix of light freezing rain and snow will be ending early this evening over portions of central South Dakota, with some CAMs still indicating a light mix over our southwestern counties still between 03-06Z. Light snow of flurries will slowly end over northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota overnight. The lingering headlines will all expire at 00Z as snow takes over and remains light.

Temperatures over the next 6-10 hours have been lowered slightly (by 1-2F) once again. Only far southern Jones/Lyman and western Corson Counties were able to get into the 30s today. Temperatures will fall into the teens to low 20s by daybreak Friday and continue to fall into the single digits to low teens by early Friday afternoon.

Our attention then shifts to our next band of snow moving in west of the MO River early Friday afternoon and expanding to much of central SD Friday night (peaking 05-12Z) before ending during the daytime hours Saturday morning. Snow to liquid ratios will be between 16:1 and 20:1 for this next event, resulting in a much fluffier/lighter snow to move around both by shovel/plow or by the wind. Winds will be out of the northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight and remain around 10 mph or less through the event. At this time, blowing or drifting snow looks to be limited. The only locations we do have low level/drifting snow is for the daytime hours only Friday, over portions of northeastern SD (mainly east central SD/Prairie Coteau areas) where snow is already on the ground and winds are expected to be out of the northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

There is increased confidence in the coverage area, which has remained pretty consistent over the past 24 hours. As a result, the chance of precipitation has increased to near 90% for our southwestern counties. Overall snowfall totals have also seen limited changes. The chance of snow remains mainly south of around Eureka to Aberdeen and Watertown to Clear Lake. There is a 20% or higher chance of 2" of snow south of a line from Mobridge to Redfield, and a 70% chance of 3" of snow or more over Stanley/Hughes and northern Jones/Lyman Counties. The main focus area for snowfall amounts of around 2 to 5 inches of snow is southwest of a line from Onida to Miller through Jones and Lyman Counties.

Cold air will remain in place through Sunday. The coldest temperatures will be Sunday morning, with lows ranging from the single digits below zero over south central South Dakota to around 15 below to 20 below zero over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. These temperatures, combined with the wind, will bring wind chill values down to 20 below to 35 degrees below zero Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Snow is now the main weather type at all but PIR, which remains in light freezing rain. The mention of precipitation has been kept in the TAFs a couple hours longer, as while the highest precipitation amounts have shifted slightly southwest, light precipitation remains over all locations either steady or temporarily through 23Z. Light snow will remain possible over ABR/ATY through the late evening/early overnight hours with MVFR to VFR visibilities. Winds will increase out of the northwest overnight, with gusts of 20-30kts by daybreak. This may lead to some low level drifting snow at ATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Ice Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ004- 005-009-010-016-017-019-020-022-023-034>037-051.

MN...None.