textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Sustained winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph through the afternoon will continue to promote areas of blowing/drifting snow across the region.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures today into Monday some 15 to 30 degrees below normal. Wind chill values heading into Monday morning are expected to be in the teens below to 20s below zero.

- There's a 50-70% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday, primarily east of the Missouri River. At this time, precipitation accumulation is expected to be light.

UPDATE

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Have modified the winter headlines to start stair-stepping down this morning and afternoon, culminating in a winter weather advisory for blowing snow running the length of the I-29 corridor in this CWA east into Minnesota, as low level CAA and moderately strong pressure gradient winds are expected to persist there into the overnight hours. Visibility has started improving markedly with March sunshine peeking through this morning where snowfall has ended. Strong sustained northerly winds and gusts won't be ending, though, today. Much of central/northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota should expect to see sustained winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph persisting into this afternoon, before a gradual step-down happens, except that previously mentioned I-29 eastward corridor into tonight. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

As of 07z, the stronger band of snow is located over southern SD with smaller pockets of snow continuing to move over central and northeastern SD. The stronger band has move faster to the south then previous models have forecast due to the surface low traveling a bit further south across KS into MO/IA. Due to this, additional snowfall amounts into this afternoon have lessen. There is still a 60-90% chance for an additional 5 plus inches of snow to fall from midnight to Sunday evening in a line from Spink to Roberts county and to the south. The highest chances for this additional snowfall to accumulate is over the Prairie Coteau and east central SD, from upslope flow along the eastern edge of the Coteau helping to create some more snow for that area. Snow chances decrease through the morning and the snow should be mostly out of northeastern SD by the afternoon.

High surface pressure to the northwest is creating a tight pressure gradient with the low pressure to the south, causing stronger winds to strengthen aloft. Moderately strong cold air advection will continue to move into central and northeastern SD today, and will help to get the stronger winds aloft to the surface. These winds are forecast to increase early this morning into the early afternoon with gusts getting up around 35 to 50 mph. As the winds increase, the amount of blowing snow will also increase causing reduced visibilities and continuing blizzard conditions into the afternoon. Though, with the stronger, more widespread, band of snowfall having moved to the south, there will be less widespread and long duration blizzard conditions over northern SD after mid morning. There will still be blowing snow and reduced visibilities into the afternoon, but it will not be as bad as this morning. The high surface pressure is forecast to move into western and central SD during the late afternoon/evening and spread east into the overnight hours. The higher pressure moving in will cause winds to decrease in central SD late this afternoon and in northeastern SD during the evening and overnight. Once snow chances decrease during the mid morning, blowing snow and its impacts will decrease slightly and then continue to decrease as winds decrease.

The high pressure moving in will help to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD Monday. With the cold air moving into central and northeastern SD, temperatures today and Monday will be 15-30 degrees colder than normal. High temperatures today will be in the teens to low 20s. The coldest temperatures will be tonight into Monday morning, which will be around 0 into the negative single digits and will have wind chills in the negative teens to -20s.

An upper-level ridge over the West Coast is starting to work its way east through the beginning of the work week. A shortwave riding along the top of the ridge is forecast to move over SD Tuesday, and this shortwave will cause precipitation to move through the area. The models are still struggling with the timing and location of the precipitation, as some have it moving in Tuesday morning, others in the afternoon, and a few models keep it to the north out of central and northeastern SD all together. Additionally, with warm air moving into the area Tuesday, the precipitation type is forecast to change from snow to a wintry mix then rain through the day, though timing of this change is also different in the models. With all the differences, there is still lower confidence in this precipitation and an eye will have to be kept on it in upcoming model runs. Accumulations for this event look to be light at the moment. The ridge is then forecast to move over SD through the remainder of the work week and temperatures are forecast to warm above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions would be over all four terminals if it weren't for the 20 to 30 knot sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) causing blowing/drifting snow and lowered visibility over runways/passed airport ASOS's. Nearly full sunshine now, over the CWA, so, expecting to see a strato-cu field develop within the next couple of hours throughout the region. Sct-bkn coverage of, at least, MVFR cigs should follow. By late this evening, daytime heating clouds should be dissipating, leaving VFR conditions at KPIR/KMBG/KABR. KATY may be still dealing with some occasional reduced (sub-VFR) visibilities in blowing/drifting snow tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ007-008-011.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon for SDZ005-006-010-017-033-035-036-045-048-051.

Blizzard Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ018>023- 037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ018- 019-037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ020>023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046.