textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures today and brief chances(20%) of light precipitation this morning across and west of the Missouri River valley.

- Snow is expected Thursday night into Friday, mainly east of the James River Valley. Highest accumulations are expected over the Prairie Coteau, where up to two inches will be possible (30-50% chance). Elsewhere, accumulations are generally expected to be minimal.

- Strong winds will return Thursday evening through Friday. Winds of 35-45 mph are expected, with gusts up to 60 miles per hour possible. A High Wind Watch is in effect for areas west Brown and Spink counties. These winds combined with falling snow could lead to reduced visibility and hazardous travel conditions.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

At 3 AM CST, skies are mostly clear along and east of a line from Eureka to Redfield. West of that line, skies are cloudy. A 160+knot upper level jet streak is positioned across southern Canada down across the Dakotas. Surface pressure analysis depicts a cold front nearly stalled out from near McIntosh to Chamberlain. Temperatures east of this boundary have cooled into the upper single digits to the 20s, while along and west of the boundary temperatures remain in the 30s to nearly 40 degrees. Winds, cwa-wide, are from the north around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. And, while regional radar beams are overshooting the clouds/precipitation, occasional reports of light rain/sprinkles are being reported across portions of central into south central South Dakota. Meanwhile, the steep low level lapse rate environment that strong CAA has brought to the far eastern forecast zones early this morning is aiding in the development/continuation of scattered strato-cu coverage and scattered flurries (light snow reported at Wheaton and Ortonville, MN).

Some small PoPs persist for a few hours this morning along the nearly stationary frontal boundary along/just west of the Missouri River valley of the CWA. Surface high pressure is taking hold across the region and current conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the day. Later tonight, everything will begin to slosh back eastward with mid/upper level height rises, low to mid-level WAA beginning and return flow winds developing. In fact, a non- diurnal temperature trend later tonight is entirely possible. Late tonight into Thursday morning, the WAA pattern and the leading edge of the mid/upper level UVV field may be able to extend far enough south across the region to produce a couple of brief showers across the far eastern forecast zones as any precipitation moves swiftly off to the east-southeast. Otherwise, today through Thursday should be predominantly dry. Again, another period of "warm sector" west- northwest mixing winds, with 40+knots roaring off the surface, and probably not a sufficient enough mixing environment at the bottom of the boundary layer to efficiently momentum transfer down those higher end wind speeds/gusts to the surface between 18Z Thursday and 00Z Friday. Perhaps there may be a few hours of advisory strength gusts somewhere across central/north central SoDak on Thursday, but with potentially stronger winds looming later Thursday night, no plans to issue a wind advisory right now for Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The snow and wind combination Thursday night into Friday continues to be the focus in the extended period this morning. When the extended forecast period opens, winds will already be strong due to a low pressure center to the east providing a tight gradient. Confidence is high on at least Wind Advisory levels being reached west of the James River, but NBM probabilities drop moving further east to about 50%. There is a similar trend for High Wind Warning criteria, in which the areas west of the James River Valley give 20- 50% chance for High Wind Warning criteria (40 mile per hour sustained or 58 mile per hour gusts, both of which are possible). Probabilities drop off once again along and east of the James. When considering that the winds and gusts tend to trend towards the NBM 75th to 90th percentiles under northwesterly flow cold air advection regimes, confidence beings to increase further on the potential for a High Wind Warning on Friday. Therefore, a High Wind Watch has been issued from 00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday for all areas west of and including McPherson, Edmunds, Faulk, and Hand counties.

A few hundredths of liquid precipitation is still expected Thursday into Friday, falling in the form of snow. Where snow is falling, it will combine with the strong winds to reduce visibility, potentially significantly at times. In terms of the Snow Squall environment, the environmental parameters still appear to be in place according to the latest model guidance. While still a ways out, it looks like early Friday morning ahead of sunrise will be the optimal time frame for any potential snow squall development. During this time frame the low pressure center to the east will drag a cold front across the region. There is a bit of disagreement in the longer-range models (the GFS and NAM specifically) about the extent of the lift out ahead of this cold front. Strong lapse rates and surface based lift look to be present, but the key question for considering snow squall potential is whether or not those parameters will line up well with the cold front. While this disparity in model guidance is interesting to note, hi-res models will likely become more useful in this diagnosis as more of them come into range. Those that are in range at this time do indeed signal some development along a band or bands of frontogenesis, so the potential remains and the situation will continue to be monitored.

Looking ahead, near-normal temperatures are expected for the start of next week. Sunday emerges as the next potential hazardous system, as another low pressure tracks to the east and drags a cold front over the region. Some light precipitation is anticipated over northeastern South Dakota, falling in the form of snow. Strong northwesterly winds will also play a role Sunday, with the NBM showing a roughly 40-60% chance to reach Wind Advisory criteria over central and north central South Dakota. Thankfully in Sunday's case, the highest winds and the falling snow do not appear to be co- located, so visibility reductions are not a large concern for that time period at the moment.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs look to be moving out of the KABR/KATY region at the start of the TAF period, while lingering through the nighttime hours across KMBG/KPIR. There may be some breaks to VFR at times in KMBG, and overall, there's low confidence on how long into the day Wednesday MVFR CIGs remain across central South Dakota. Look for winds to become light by sunrise Wednesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.