textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold air, for March, will be over the region today, with temperatures some 15 to 30 degrees below normal. Wind chill values this morning are expected to be in the teens below to 20s below zero.

- There's a 70-90% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday, over central and northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. At this time, light snow accumulation mainly over northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota and light ice accumulation mainly west of the James River are forecast.

- Depending on how long it takes to melt the snow, temperatures over a large portion of the forecast area could be in the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 813 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

No changes planned to the today period forecast. Cold and dry and considerably less wind today.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Winds over northeastern SD will continue to decrease into the morning, with gusts of 30 mph or more exiting the state by mid morning. The colder air will be sticking around today and will keep temperatures today 15-30 degrees below normal, with the coldest temperatures and wind chills happening this morning, with wind chills in the negative teens to negative 20s. High surface pressure over central SD will expand into northeastern SD during the day, and will help to keep stronger winds out of the area and sunny to mostly sunny skies around. Temperatures and wind chills will be a bit warmer Monday night into Tuesday morning, though there could still be wind chills in the negative teens over northeastern SD.

An upper-level shortwave will move over SD Tuesday and will help to push a warm front through central and northeastern SD. Precipitation is forecast to develop along the front and move through that area during the morning and afternoon. Warm air advection aloft will interact with this precipitation and will cause a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to occur as the precipitation moves through the area. Models still vary how fast the air aloft gets above freezing and how that will affect the type of precipitation falling. Model soundings from the NAM shows snow quickly turning to freezing rain for a few hours during the morning for central SD while the GFS keeps the air cold enough for mainly only snow before the precipitation chances decrease. Model soundings for northeastern SD show snow for a bit longer in the morning and into afternoon before changing to sleet and freezing rain for a hour or two.

Due to differences in the models there is still a bit lower confidence in how quickly the precipitation type changes, how long there will be freezing precipitation, how much ice might accumulate, and if temperatures will be able to warm above freezing in the afternoon long enough to melt the ice that could accumulate. High- res model ensembles have a 30-70% chance for greater than 0.01 inch of ice to occur west of the Missouri river and less than a 10% chance to the east, as well as 15-30% chance for 0.03 inches of ice or more to accumulate west of the Missouri River. Other model ensembles have only a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.01 inches of ice to accumulate over central SD but it has a 10-20% chance over areas between the James River and the Prairie Coteau. Snow amount are forecast to be low, and will depend on how long areas receive snow before it switches to freezing rain. Areas in central SD could receive a dusting to a half inch of snow and northeastern SD, especially far northeastern SD and west central MN, could get a half inch to a little more than an inch of snow. In addition to the threat of ice and snow, winds Tuesday afternoon could gust up around 30 mph over northeastern SD. If snow is still falling when these winds are occurring, it could cause some localized areas of blowing and drifting snow.

An upper-level ridge over the West Coast is slowly moving towards SD and should move over the state during the end of work week into the weekend. This will help to warm temperatures 10-25 degrees above normal. Additionally, precipitation chances are forecast to stay out of central and northeastern SD into the weekend. Though, some models do show a line of precipitation moving through MN, with a couple having the edge clip far northeastern SD and west central MN. If the tracks of this precipitation shifts slightly, those areas could see an increase chance for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast at all 4 terminals through 06Z tonight. During the last 9 hours of the TAF valid period, KMBG (and probably KPIR) should experience some light snow. Toward the end of the precipitation period, sleet or freezing rain may happen as well. Between 12Z and 18Z, this precipitation should be making its way toward the KABR and KATY terminals. Breezy southerly winds, gusting to 25 to 30 knots, could stir up/blow snow at these two terminals.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.