textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer end of the weekend into next week, with temperatures persistently above average. Highs range in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Monday and Tuesday will likely see highs reaching or exceeding the 90F degree mark (15 to 20 degrees above normal).

UPDATE

Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Pockets of fog are burning off and clouds are beginning to mix out. Will be interesting to see how much cloud-cover ends up reforming with daytime heating over the next few hours. No plans to change anything in the today period forecast. Going gridded database appears to have things handled pretty well at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Updated aviation discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

As an upper-level trough pushes northeast out of SD today, a surface low pressure will be moving out of SD into ND. As this surface low moves north, very scattered lingering showers and sprinkles over northeastern SD will also be moving out through the early morning. Additionally, the clouds wrapping around the low will start to dissipate through the morning to clearer skies during the afternoon. The lower clouds as well as the lingering moisture from the showers that occurred Friday have started to cause some pockets of fog to development over northeastern SD. These patchy to areas of fog will continue into the morning for a little bit and also develop over areas of north central SD. Visibility could get down to a mile, with localized areas of lower visibilities possible.

As a low-level boundary/surface trough moves through SD during the late afternoon into the evening, some models are showing very scattered and light showers/sprinkles popping up over central and northeastern SD. The models vary the chances for rain quite a lot, with the high-res models picking up on it better. Though some models have more isolated sprinkles and others have higher/slightly more widespread chances. I blended in a couple of the high-res models for this afternoon and evening to help get some isolated rain showers and sprinkles. Other than the slim shower chances tonight, the rest of the holiday weekend should be dry, as rain chances stay to the south of central and northeastern SD and west central MN.

An upper-level ridge/split upper-level flow will start to move towards and over SD during the weekend and stick around into the work week. This flow will help to push warmer air into SD, warming temperatures starting Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday are currently forecast to be 15-20 degrees warmer than normal, and models showing that some areas are currently looking to get close (potentially within 5 degrees some places) to record warm temperatures. Temperatures then are forecast to start cooling slightly through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

PIR will see VFR conditions through the valid TAF period. Elsewhere, low cigs and patchy fog will produce MVFR/IFR conditions through the mid morning hours before conditions improve.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.