textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and more humid conditions return Friday, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s (15 to 25 degrees above normal). Southeast winds increase to 20 to 35 mph.

- The heat will peak Saturday, with highs in the 80s, about 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Lower humidity and southwest winds topping 25 to 45 mph (highest across the Sisseton hills) resulting in high to very high fire danger across the east.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures Saturday night into Sunday along with increasing chances for moisture by late in the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Sfc ridge of high pressure has maintained a rather quiet and mild day across the forecast area. Light and variable winds with early afternoon temperature readings in the mid 60s to low 70s have been common. Mid to high level clouds have been tough to depart our far northeast zones, mainly across far northeast SD and west central MN where temps have remained the coolest.

The sfc high will continue to drift east-southeast into MN and WI tonight as sfc low pressure and warm front trek east across NE. A few CAMs are still hinting at warm advection elevated convection developing late this afternoon into this evening across parts of south central and southeast SD. RRFS/RAP/NAM soundings across south central SD show an increase in moisture at about 800mb and steeper lapse rates aloft. If anything were to get going, it likely won't impact our forecast area as southeast SD into northwest IA remain in a more favorable spot.

On Friday, the aforementioned warm front shifts into central SD by the end of the day as sfc low pressure strengthens and becomes more organized across the Northern High Plains. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to a more breezy to windy day with southeast winds gusting to around 20-25 mph across our eastern zones while our west will see gusts closer to 30-35 mph. This will help pull in a warmer, more moist air mass with dew point temperatures expected to increase into the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Even though daytime highs reach the 70s to low 80s, fire weather conditions should remain muted due to the more humid air mass in place.

This won't be the case on Saturday as sfc low pressure tracks into the western Dakotas and pushes that warm front through the area. South to southwest winds will increase through the day. Highest winds will peak across our eastern zones with gusts ranging between 30-45 mph with higher gusts possible across the downslope areas of the Prairie Coteau in northeast SD. Temperatures will top out rather warm to hot Saturday afternoon with readings in the 80s, which is about 20-25 degrees above normal. Some spots west river in south central SD could hit 90 degrees. These readings will be mostly shy of record highs with the exception of Watertown where 86 is the current record. There will be a better chance of seeing record warm overnight lows Saturday morning with lows in the low to mid 60s. Fire weather will become a concern on Saturday as afternoon RH values drop into a 20-30 percent range. With strongest winds expected across our eastern zones, the grassland fire danger index will top out in the high to potentially very high category Saturday afternoon.

Changes in this warm and dry pattern return as early as the latter half of the weekend as sfc low pressure and a cold front encroach on the area Sunday. Winds will become northerly on Sunday as the front passes through the area. Increasing chances for moisture will appear by late in the day across north central SD. Better chances for more widespread rainfall moves into the area overnight into Monday with basically the northern 2/3 of the forecast area having a 30-60 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will turn much cooler by early next week with daytime highs not expected to get out of the 50s to around 60 degrees.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.