textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a very small Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms over far northeastern SD and west central MN this evening into the early overnight hours. Confidence is low that we will have storms in the area, however, if a storm does move into the area, primary hazards will be 1 inch diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

- Areas of fog are expected Friday morning over northeast SD into west central MN with reductions in visibility potentially down to 2 miles or less.

- Our warming trend continues into the weekend, peaking at 15 to 20 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

No major changes are planned to the current forecast this evening. There are a number of outflow boundaries moving through off some convection in ND. These are ancillary to a dry line. Southwest of the line, dewpoints have fallen into the 40s and 50s. North of Hwy 12 and east of the line, dewpoints in the 60s have temporarily pushed heat indices up between 100 and 105 degrees. This should be short-lived as the boundaries continue to push east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

As of 12:30 pm CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 80s to low 90s with winds out of the south to southwest. Winds will move around to the northwest from west to east across the forecast area this evening, becoming easterly by sunrise Friday morning. While the threat has shifted north, there is still a small portion of Roberts and Traverse counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this evening. The vast majority of ensembles and CAMs have the storms staying to our north and east, however, so confidence is low that we will actually see severe storms. If a storm does happen to clip our area, hazards will be 60 mph winds and hail up to 1 inch. Some fog is also expected early Friday morning with visibilities dropping to around 2 miles in portions of northeast SD and west central MN.

Friday into the weekend, an upper level ridge develops with its axis over the forecast area. Several shortwaves will move along the ridge bringing some chances for storms areas around and east of the James River where moisture levels are higher. Deterministic models really differ on the amount of instability in this area, ranging from about 1000 J/kg to over 2000 J/kg Saturday evening. However, most agree that bulk shear is pretty marginal at less than 30 kts. Sunday afternoon and evening, bulk shear is about the same but more of the deterministic models show MLCAPE closer to 2000 J/kg. Due to the low shear, no severe weather is expected at this time. A low pressure system out of Montana late Sunday into Monday will bring more widespread storm chances to the area, drawing moisture up from an open Gulf. PWATs Monday afternoon are forecast to be in the 1.5 to 1.75" range or the 99.5 NAEFS percentiles. This could result in heavy rainfall with the storms. These higher amounts remain in place through the overnight hours and into Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is low on severe potential at this time, but keep an eye on the SPC outlooks once this time period moves into the Days 1-3 range.

The ridge mentioned previously will bring warmer air into the region pushing temperatures 15-20 degrees above average Friday and Saturday. Winds across far western portions of north central SD and south central SD can expect wind gusts of 30-35 mph Friday afternoon, but otherwise, winds will be unremarkable until Monday. With the incoming low pressure, wind gusts Monday afternoon look to be in the 30 to 35 mph range between the Missouri River and Prairie Coteau of eastern SD.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Can't completely rule out some patchy fog early Friday morning, but a drier air mass may prevent development.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.