textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather this evening over northeastern South Dakota. The main threat will be wind gusts of 60 miles per hour.

- Another Marginal Risk is in place for storms developing Monday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats during that time frame will be hail of 1 inch in diamter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour.

- Temperatures roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) are expected through at least the start of next week. There is potential for a cooldown closer to normal (highs in the mid 80s) by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Storms across the region have mainly dissipated early this morning, and just some lingering showers to weak thunderstorms remain. Keeping an eye on some storms in western SD/ND moving across the state line, but all guidance points to these storms dissipating completely before reaching the Aberdeen CWA. Other than that, light winds and full relative humidity recovery will lead to some chances for patchy fog this morning, particularly over the James River Valley. The main limitation to fog development this morning will be cloud cover limiting the radiative cooling, but surface observations as of 06Z this morning already indicate dew point depressions ranging from 3 to 5 degrees, so not much further to go to produce fog.

Model guidance does show some convergence towards some scattered thunderstorm potential over northeastern South Dakota in particular this evening (with some isolated chances elsewhere). Can't entirely rule out a stray severe gust due to some marginal DCAPE (~800-900 J/kg) in the area, but overall not expecting much out of these storms. Still, there is a Marginal Risk in place due to the severe wind threat, located over parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Sunday has trended towards a drier forecast, providing a bit of a break from the perpetual scattered showers the area has been under recently.

This break won't last long however, since severe weather chances are expected to return for the beginning of the work week. A broad upper- level ridge over the western and central CONUS will allow ample moisture into the region, coupled with a series of waves riding along the top of the ridge providing some potential for lift in the area. Monday specifically, environmental conditions appear favorable for both wind and hail as potential hazards. Strong MUCAPE of 2000- 3000+ J/kg will be in place, and mid-level lapse rates upwards of 7.5-8 C/km will be present as well. The potential limitation would be shear, with early looks at model soundings showing the environment to struggle getting upwards of 30 knots. On the wind side of things, there will be pockets of ample (>1000 J/kg) DCAPE, assisted by low-level lapse rates near dry adiabatic. With the expected lack of shear mentioned above, collapsing storms would likely be the primary offender for severe wind gusts. Tornadoes do not look favorable under this environment due to very weak low-level shear (<10 knots at 0-1km) and LCLs looking to be 3-5km or higher. With this latest issuance, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening over most of the forecast area, barring parts of south central South Dakota.

Extended severe weather risk models also highlight Tuesday as having potential for severe storms, as well as Wednesday and Thursday (albeit to a lesser extent than Tuesday). Outside of severe chances, expect temperatures to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through at least the start of the week. By the middle of the week, indications are that the upper-level pattern will transition to near-zonal flow over the Northern Plains, which will facilitate a slight cooldown to near-normal (highs in the mid 80s). Chances for showers and storms will remain through the end of the week due to the potential for some shortwave disturbances to track into the region still.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Other than the potential for some brief ground fog around sunrise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Heading into Saturday afternoon, could see some thunderstorms developing near KABR/KATY, but not high enough confidence to add as a PROB30.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.