textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Brisk northwest winds diminish this evening with a brief rain or snow shower possible for parts of northeast SD and west central MN mid to late evening.

- Dry conditions are expected the latter half of the weekend this into the first half of next week with temperatures warming back above normal next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will return next week as gusty winds and low relative humidity values are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A secondary cold front is working its way into the region this evening. There is just enough saturation along this boundary for weak radar returns to show up. However, given the very dry low low level airmass, as denoted by surface dewpoints in the teens, any precipitation is going to struggle to materialize. Upstream obs and webcams also have yet to confirm. Regardless, continued with the low POPs along the boundary as it sags from northwest to southeast across the region. Soundings suggest rain should be the primary ptype, but a rain snow/mix certainly is not out of the question later tonight. Otherwise, northwest winds should loose their gustiness as high pressure slides in. No major changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

See the updated aviation discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 810 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

This afternoon has featured a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky across the forecast area as low to mid level flow remain out of the northwest. This has help to maintain a cooler than normal air mass across the region with afternoon readings holding mainly in the 40s. Northwest winds have remained brisk helping to drive in a very dry air mass across the CWA, especially across our eastern zones where dew point temperatures have settled into the upper single digits to low teens. In turn, this has allowed RH values to approach critical levels of around 25-30 percent across our eastern zones. We still have a few more hours of peak heating left as northwest winds remain gusty allowing for elevated fire weather conditions to persist across our east.

These conditions will recover by early this evening and wind speeds begin to diminish and temperatures start to drop. Poised to our north and northwest is a weak upper wave and sfc cold front this is progged to sweep through tonight. This may provide parts of northeast SD and west central MN with a brief rain or snow shower or at least some sprinkles/flurries. Very little if no accumulation is expected. Sfc high pressure builds in from the north on Sunday leading to a much more manageable north to northeast breeze. This will aid in maintaining a cool air mass across most of the forecast area especially across the eastern half of the CWA. Daytime readings in the 40s to near 50 is about the best this area will be able to achieve. Slightly warmer conditions across central SD are expected with highs warming closer to normal with low to mid 50s possible. High pressure slips off to our southeast Sunday night into Monday. A tightening pressure gradient between this high and low pressure to the west and north will lead to breezy southerly winds on Monday. A warmer air mass will be lifted back to the north into our region leading to temperatures warming back above normal. With dry conditions expected and RH values falling into critical levels, elevated fire weather conditions are once again expected to develop, especially across parts of central SD along and south of the US Highway 14 corridor.

Another cold front is progged to pass through dry late Monday into early Tuesday. Winds will switch back around to the north and northeast however the air mass doesn't cool off a significant amount. Above normal temperatures are still expected on Tuesday and into Wednesday for that matter. Wednesday could be the warmest day of the forecast period with daytime readings in the 80s possible. In fact, highs approaching 90 degrees may be possible in our southern zones. NBM probabilities of seeing temperatures reaching 90 degrees are 30-50 percent along and south of the US Highway 14 corridor. Wednesday will be another day to monitor fire weather as gusty southerly winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire danger once again. Going into the latter half of next week, an upper trough is expected to roll into the western CONUS and turn our upper flow back to the southwest. This will lead to a more active pattern with low pressure returning to the region and increasing chances for showers late Wednesday through the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail. A cold front will sag south out of North Dakota tonight. There may be just enough saturation along the front to result in a light rain/snow shower, however upstream obs have yet to indicate any measurable precipitation at this point. Coverage will be low, therefore continued a VCSH only mention in the KABR/KATY TAF. Otherwise, expect northwest winds to slacken overnight as high pressure moves in.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.