textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures arriving Thursday through Saturday, with highs only in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s to upper teens. Above normal temperatures likely returning by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 837 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The forecast is on track this morning with no major edits planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A lower stratus cloud deck will be moving in during the early morning and will stick around through the day. These low clouds will cause some lower visibilities to develop over portions of north central and northeastern SD during the morning, which could be less than 1 mile at time. The clouds will rise during the morning into the afternoon, so there will not be lower visibilities during the afternoon into the evening. Higher pressure will be moving in during the day and stick around through Friday, which will help to keep precipitation chances out. The upper and mid level flow from the northwest/north will help to push colder air in. This cold air will start to cool temperatures today and through the rest of the week. The coldest temperatures will happen on Thursday, with highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to teens into Friday morning.

A surface low will be developing over the Rockies Thursday into Friday. With this low to the west and high pressure over northeastern SD, the pressure gradient over western and central SD will start to tighten. As the high pressure moves east Saturday into Sunday, the tight pressure gradient will spread over northeastern SD as well. This tight pressure gradient will help to strengthen the wind Friday through Sunday. The strongest wind gusts will be west of the Missouri River, with a 30-50% chance for gusts up to or greater than 35 mph on Friday and 50-80% chance on Saturday. An eye might need to be kept on these winds in the upcoming model runs to see if they might increase in strength or if humidity decreases and fire weather concerns increase. The models have been shifting the timeline of when the warmer air will be pushing back into SD later in the previous few runs. Currently, the models are forecasting a weak warm front moving through Sunday that will push the warm air back in and warm temperatures above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. The main concern will be morning to mid afternoon (until 21Z) fog or MVFR ceilings at ABR and potentially ATY. We'll need to continue to monitor the latest progression on the lower clouds/fog over southern portions of north Dakota early this morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.