textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will be possible tonight into Thursday. Central South Dakota can generally expect around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of accumulation through Thursday, while elsewhere will see less than a tenth of an inch.

- Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota. These winds combined with drier air will also create elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 901 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Allowed the frost and freeze headlines to expire across central SD this morning. Temperatures will continue a slow rise this morning as clouds fill in.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Stratus continues to ooze southward across northern SD. Have chipped away a couple more counties from the Freeze Warning as clouds have prevented temps from getting below 32 degrees. Where skies are clear, temps have fallen into the upper 20s to around 32 degrees and will leave current headlines in place there. Made adjustments to sky grids to account for placement of the stratus deck.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in place early this morning, and are set to run through 14Z. As of ~06Z, sites over central and portions of north central South Dakota are evolving as expected, and there are some sites reporting temperatures near freezing already. The main questions for these headlines now are Brown, Spink, McPherson, and Edmunds Counties. A stratus deck has been in place over Brown County this morning, and showing no signs of moving out, meaning that the area will have great difficulty reaching 32 degrees this morning. The other three aforementioned counties have been able to cool off a bit more, but this same stratus deck is moving overhead, and may cut off the ability to cool further in that area too. As of the time of issuance of this discussion the Warnings will remain in place, but a possible early cancellation will be on the table for those counties depending on how trends evolve this morning.

A closed upper-level low will move up into the region late today and bring the next chances for rain. A last-minute northward shift in the track has increased expected rainfall totals, particularly over central South Dakota. Expectations in that area are now for a tenth to a quarter of an inch, with perhaps some localized values greater than a quarter of an inch along and south of I-90. Rainfall values will drop off moving north, meaning that the rest of South Dakota and western Minnesota will still likely see only a few hundredths at best.

A cold front will move across the region early Thursday, behind which winds will turn northwesterly and increase as the pressure gradient tightens. Latest NBM probabilities for gusts reaching Wind Advisory criteria (45 miles per hour or greater) reach up to 60-80% over central and north central South Dakota. Under a cold air advection regime, NBM biases are to under forecast wind speeds, which only increases confidence for the potential for a Wind Advisory on Thursday. Dew points drop about 10-15 degrees behind the front, ushering in drier air during the afternoon. With the strong wind and dry air combination in place, Grassland Fire Danger will be pushed up to High to Very High over central and north central South Dakota. Humidity values will still remain at 35-45 percent in that area even with the drier airmass, so a Red Flag Warning does not appear to be on the table Thursday.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected overnight tonight and into Thursday morning due to cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Parts of northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may dip down to 36 degrees and facilitate frost development, but confidence in that scenario is somewhat low. Friday morning will see much clearer skies along with some lingering weak cold air advection lingering overnight, both of which will facilitate the return of sub- freezing temperatures over much of the region (with the best chances being over north central and parts of northeastern South Dakota). Areas that do not reach freezing will likely be cold enough to see frost, although there is still some question as to whether or not humidity will fully recover Friday morning.

Over the weekend and into next week, signal is strong for an upper- level ridge to move overhead. 850mb temperatures of 15-20 degrees Celsius will be in place over the weekend as a result, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Expect those above normal temperatures to translate to the surface, at least into the upper 60s to 70s across the forecast area. In terms of precipitation, dry conditions are expected while the ridge remains over the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will continue to affect KABR and KATY this morning and are forecast to eventually erode/depart the area later in the afternoon. Across KMBG/KPIR, FG/BR is nearby or affecting the terminals and expect this to continue through mid morning. Later this evening and overnight, -SHRA will move northward into the region, but should remain scattered in nature except perhaps KPIR where better rainfall chances exist.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.