textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Bands of light snow with intermittent white out conditions to diminish in coverage and intensity overnight as strong winds out of the northwest slowly weaken, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph by daybreak Saturday. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.

- Wind chills of 20 below to near 30 below zero expected Saturday morning, lowest over the Leola Hills.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust from 45 to 55 mph late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. These winds will be accompanied by light snow of around an inch or less across portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Wind chills of 15 below to near 30 below zero are expected Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Allowed the High Wind Warning to expire at 00Z across central SD as gusts slowly diminish to below 60 mph. Will still see gusts generally ranging from 35 to 55 mph this evening, strongest over central SD. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 06Z. Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The cold area of high pressure at the surface across Saskatchewan will sink over the western Dakotas by 18Z Saturday and reside from eastern KS through eastern NE with a ridge extending up through the eastern half of SD through southwestern MN. The ridge will exit through the evening as another Canadian low nears.

Winds remain elevated, with gusts of 35mph over west central MN to around 40 to 55mph across central SD. These winds will slowly relax this evening, with winds still gusting above 45 mph through around 04Z Saturday over portions of central SD. Given the still elevated winds and continued snow, the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 06Z. Winds will slowly diminish with gusts of 30- 35mph by 12Z Saturday as temperatures fall either side of 0. Combined with the winds, wind chills will be in the -20 to -30 degree range Saturday morning.

Fire weather concerns have diminished slightly, given that all locations received at least a dusting of snow. The ongoing cold air will keep this moisture on the fuels until temperatures warm over central SD Sunday and potentially Tuesday over portions of northeastern SD. Another round of light snow Sunday will also act to limit some of the more robust fire weather concerns. We'll still need to be monitoring areas west of the MO River through, where the warmest/driest air will remain and little snow fell.

Unfortunately winds will increase again Sunday. Snow on the ground from this event will add to the available blowable snow (mainly over the Prairie Coteau or where any significant bands of snow were able to set up). The surface low over southern Manitoba at 06Z Sunday will extend a warm front across western SD. This boundary will continue to eastern SD by 12Z Sunday as the parent low sinks along the ND/MN border and the cold front extends west across central ND. The low will push across Mn and Lake Superior by Sunday afternoon with the cold front rapidly sinking south. There is a 30-50% of 1" of snow or more northeast of a line from around Andover to Watertown. Most of the snow looks to fall 12-18Z Sunday, with the strongest winds not perfectly aligned with the highest snowfall. Winds out of the northwest are forecast to gust 45 to 55 mph late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, there is around a 20% chance of light snow Tuesday night and again Friday. Temperatures will jump back to near normal values Sunday afternoon then reside near to slightly below normal for the rest of the work week. While there are some peak gusts of 30 to near 40mph briefly Monday, winds for the rest of the forecast remain much lighter than what we're experiencing now and going to experience Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Will continue to see -SN and areas of BLSN across the region into the nighttime hours, generally ending during the wee hours of Saturday morning. MVFR/IFR VSBY can be expected at times. CIGs will generally be a mix of low end VFR and MVFR through most of the TAF period, with improvements expected by late Saturday afternoon/evening. Strong northwest surface wind gusts ranging from 30 to as much as 45 knots can still be expected at times across the region through this evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039- 046.