textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for isolated severe storms over Big Stone and Traverse Counties in Minnesota. Main threats include large hail of one inch in diameter and 60 mph wind gusts.

- Strong northwesterly winds return Thursday, reaching up to 35 to 45 miles per hour in the afternoon. Some localized gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour will be possible west of the Missouri River.

- Cooler temperatures arrive for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Highs beginning Thursday will be in the mid 70s, near- normal to just below normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A couple of isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are lingering over the James River Valley early this afternoon. Over the next few hours, these showers are expected to continue progressing over northeastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota. As they move east, showers will enter a most unstable environment (~1500 J/kg of MUCAPE as compared to the current 500-1000 J/kg), leading to the potential for further possible thunderstorm development. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather in place over Traverse and Big Stone Counties tonight, with hail of one inch and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour possible in the strongest storms. This severe threat will be fairly short lived, as once the current showers and storms move off to the east (expected to be out of the CWA before 00Z), further development is not anticipated.

Thursday afternoon, pressure gradient will tighten back up, bringing the return of strong northwesterly winds at the surface. Counties west of the Missouri River will be borderline for reaching Wind Advisory criteria (gusts of 45 miles per hour). The latest NBM run gives a 20-50% chance of reaching that threshold, and Jones/Lyman Counties in particular have some local probabilities above 50 percent. However comparing the NBM to other short range ensembles reveals that these borderline Advisory strength winds are a bit of an outlier among guidance. In general, despite the tendency to under- forecast wind speeds under northwesterly cold air advection regimes, confidence would lean against reaching widespread 45 mile per hour gusts at this time. The main reason for this is the lack of mid- level support to mix these stronger gusts to the surface. Still can't quite rule out the potential need for a Wind Advisory, but will not be issuing anything with this forecast package.

Chances for rain returns on Thursday as well, mainly in the form of light rain showers over parts of eastern and north central South Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be possible, particularly over north central South Dakota with some modest MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) in the area. However, all guidance indicates that severe weather is unlikely with any thunderstorms that do manage to develop on Thursday.

By this weekend, flow aloft will transition to become more zonal, maintaining the relatively colder airmass over the Northern Plains. With the exception of Friday, temperatures from Thursday through the weekend and into the start of next week will be in the 70s, just below normal for this time of year. There is some signal for some vorticity maxima to move overhead beginning Sunday, bringing chances for rain from Sunday through Tuesday. At this point, rain chances for that time period remain fairly low, generally less than 20 percent across the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day today, with the possible exception of some cumulus clouds creating localized MVFR ceilings over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota over the next couple of hours. Gusty westerly winds will be the main aviation concern this afternoon, with widespread gusts up to 25 to 35 knots expected today. After a brief break overnight, strong northwesterly winds return Thursday afternoon. Gusts will reach up to 30 to 35 knots across the forecast area, and potentially to 40+ knots west of the Missouri River. Chances for scattered light rain showers will also move into parts of north central and eastern South Dakota tomorrow. Generally expecting showers to be light, but some MVFR visibilities and ceilings may move over some of the TAF sites, indicated by PROB30 groups at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.