textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers will continue to pop up over portions of south central and east central SD through the early morning hours.

- 20-30% chance for some scattered non-severe storms and showers to develop or move into portions of central SD late this afternoon into the evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 922 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Only update this evening was to expand 20-30% chances for light showers further northeast across central/south central SD to better align with recent radar trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

As of 18z, there are currently some isolated showers lingering over portions of south central and east central SD. These showers are slowly moving around and then dissipating after not too long. The environment has a touch of instability, with between 250-500 J/kg over south central and east central SD. This could help with the development of occasional showers and weak & non-severe storms over portions of central and east central SD this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, central and northeastern SD will stay dry as showers and storms stay to the south and west through the overnight hours.

The upper-level ridge that had kept northwest flow over SD through the past week has finally shifted to the east over the southeastern US. With this ridge moving east, the upper-level flow has switched to be from the southwest through the weekend. This southwest flow will start to push the wildfire smoke aloft and at the surface out of central and northeastern SD today and into Friday. There could be a bit of smoke aloft over northern SD through the evening before it moves out. Temperatures today and into the weekend will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 70s.

The lee of the Rockies surface trough will slowly be pushed to the east by the southwest flow Friday. This surface boundary is forecast to move over central SD late Friday afternoon and into the evening. This will provide support for the next chance for showers and storms to develop, as the boundary will move into an environment with lots of moisture and some weak instability. The NAM and RAP show CAPE values in western SD getting up into the 1000s J/kg while central SD will see values around 500 J/kg. While the values are a bit weaker, it could still be enough to help storms develop in central SD or have storms develop in western SD and then move into central SD. There does look to be lower lapse rates and shear values, which helps to increase the confidence that if any storms develop, then they will stay non-severe. These storms could have some stronger wind gusts at times. As the surface boundary shifts east over northeastern SD during the overnight hours, the storms look to dissipate. This is because the environment is even weaker and there is nothing to support the storm, such as a low level jet which will develop in ND. A cold front along the back side of this surface boundary looks to move through central and northeastern SD Saturday morning. This could cause an isolated shower or two to pop up through the day Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the early morning hours at all TAF sites, although KPIR could flirt with MVFR cigs at times as some showers push across that terminal. Better chance for more prevalent MVFR cigs will be possible after sunrise by mid morning at KPIR/KMBG with showers possible at KMBG through midday. KATY could also potentially see MVFR cigs during the afternoon into the evening hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.