textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Intermittent snow showers will continue through the early afternoon. New snow accumulations up to an inch is expected, with highest amounts over the Sisseton Hills and west central Minnesota. The combination of snow and gusty winds will lead to widespread whiteout conditions over this area, therefore, a Blizzard Warning has been issued.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for central and portions of northeastern South Dakota due to the combination of snow and gusty winds that will lead to drifting and blowing snow, reducing visibility at times.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 45 to 55 mph through late afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for central to northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. - Wind chills of -15 to near -30 are forecast Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1019 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Raised pops across the region this morning. While there are a few locations that fall between the waves of snow, these areas should fill in over the next hour or two as snow pushes south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The main concern for today will be the combination of snow and strong winds leading to drifting and blowing snow that will reduce visibility, especially over far northeastern SD into west central MN. Basically along and east of the Sisseton Hills. As of 230am, north to south oriented snow continues to track east of the James River, ahead and along the warm front. Behind this front, temperatures are continuing to rise over central SD with this "warmer air" spreading eastward through the morning before tanking behind the cold front. Winds still not too bad with gusts of 30- 35mph over portions of north central SD within the past hour.

A strong slightly positive shortwave will continue to track southeastward out of Canada and over the Dakotas this morning with its surface low hovering over the eastern Dakotas and western MN at 12Z. By this time, the warm front will be over eastern SD and southward through the central Plains with the east to west arctic cold front stretching over central ND into MT. Through the morning this arctic front will plunge southward and exit the CWA by late morning/midday. This clipper is not as strong as the one we had a couple of days ago but still is packing a punch as winds on the backside of this system, at 700mb, range from 50-60kts through this evening and 850mb winds ranging from 40-50kts this morning, diminishing a bit this afternoon. With strong winds aloft mixing down to the surface (steep low level lapse rates) along with steep pressure gradients lead to high confidence on the strong winds today. Models indicate the strong winds will continue to spread eastward over the CWA through this morning. HREF's mean gusts indicate max gusts of 45 mph, but 90th percentile is up to 55mph or so through late this afternoon. That matches well with NBM90th which indicates gusts up to 55-60mph or so. So kept the trend and did a blend of NBM/NBM90 for winds and gusts. With overall gusts barely flirting with High Wind Warning criteria or just a few isolated areas hitting it, left the Wind Advisory in place. If we start seeing gusts 58mph+, then the advisory will need to be upgraded.

As mentioned, the initial first band of snow came through the area with CAMs still indicating light snow and/or narrow bands of snow moving in from the northwest (along and behind the arctic cold front) through the midday and maybe lingering into the early afternoon. There is differences on where these exact bands track and its coverage area between the CAMs, so lower confidence on that along with exit time. Rap does hint at the possibility of snow squalls associated with the arctic front tracking over north central through south central SD with pressure rises of 2-4mb, lapse rates of 5-6C/km, and fairly strong fgen. HOWEVER, it all depends on if these snow bands line up with the stronger forcing at the time. So just something to keep an eye out, but confidence remains low. QPF wise, its tough, NBM does not nearly have as much as WPC (as the overall amounts will be light anyways) so did a blend of both and added in some ECAM to catch some of these potential snow streamers. This matches well with what the HREF is showing. Highest QPF of 0.05 will be James Valley and eastward. Adding in high snow ratios of 15- 20:1, any snow that falls will be very fluffy and blowable as well as accumulating quickly (especially in stronger snow bands/squalls). New snow accumulations amounts from 12Z-00Z range from a trace to an inch, highest over the Coteau into west central MN. Localized heavier snow is possible with any stronger bands.

With the strong winds, snow already on the ground, along with the new falling snow today, latest BLSN run indicates isolated to intermittent whiteout conditions are likely west of the Sisseton Hills (especially in falling snow) with widespread whiteout conditions likely over and east of the Sisseton Hills into west central MN. Due to this, the WWY upgrades to A Blizzard Warning for portions of northeastern SD into west central MN at 15Z through 02Z.

Otherwise, dry conditions tonight and winds diminishing a bit west to east across the CWA with the exiting system. High pressure moves in over the region for Monday providing dry conditions. Northwest flow continues through much of next week with several weak shortwaves/surface systems passing over the region. As of now, our best chance of any snow (20-40% pops) will be Tuesday/Tuesday night as models seems to overall agree on this. Probability of 24hr snow>1" per NBM is less than 50% as of now. We could see a chance (25-45%) of precip Friday night/Saturday but confidence is low as models are inconsistent with each other.

Temperature wise, arctic air will still be in place Monday as the high moves in with temps Monday morning around zero to as low as -10 with wind chills between 15 to potentially 30 below zero. Tuesday-Thrusday warms up a bit ranging in the teens to 30s before another shot of arctic air moves back in for Friday/Friday night with potential lows Saturday morning in the teens below zero for some areas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions will continue with occasional IFR vsby as snow showers and strong northwest winds continue through this afternoon. When the system exits after 21z, conditions should quickly improve with winds more slowly diminishing overnight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ007-008-011- 021.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046.