textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon for central South Dakota.

- Lingering light snow/flurries will continue through the morning before tapering off by the midday.

- Winds will decrease this afternoon but then increase once again out of the northwest early Sunday, with gusts of 45 to 55 mph, through late Sunday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area.

- Light snow of around an inch or less is possible across portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota Sunday. The combination of snow and gusty winds may lead to drifting and blowing snow that could reduce visibility at times over this area.

- Wind chills of 15 below to near 30 below zero are expected Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

As of 230am radar indicates areas of light snow/flurries that are still circling around the backside of the low pressure system, tracking northwest to southeast. So continued with slight pop chances through the early morning. The coldest wind chills of -25 to -33 are over north central and SD where the Cold Weather Advisory remains in place through noon. Winds are still breezy gusting between 30 to 45 mph out of the northwest.

Aloft, the region remains in northerly flow on the backside of a large slightly positive tilted trough and its mid level low that will be over IA at 12Z. This system will continue to track east/southeast with winds aloft turning northwest over the Northern Plains. Models indicate we are still seeing some gusty winds aloft behind the 850mb/sfc low (center over the Great Lakes Region/Ontario) with speeds about 35kts at 12Z, then gradually weakening a bit by the midday and afternoon to around 20-25kts along with the 925mb winds. So expect winds to remain a bit breezy this morning at the surface with gusts of 25-35kts through the late morning. The good news is that high pressure will continue to drop down out of Saskatchewan this morning and directly over the region by this afternoon, which will relax the gradient and winds will diminish towards the afternoon through the evening. This will only last a few hours as wind speeds increase with the next system.

This high will exit the region as it tracks southeast with yet another clipper that will move in across the Dakotas into MN late tonight through Sunday and exiting the area by Sunday evening as the low will be centered over the Great Lakes. On the backside of this low, gustier winds will move in from the northwest, over north central SD then the rest of the CWA early Sunday morning with 850mb winds between 45-55kts and 925mb winds up to 35kts. So once again with the winds aloft and a tighter pressure gradient, surface winds will gradually increase from west to east over the CWA Sunday morning, and peaking by the late morning through the afternoon. This is shown pretty well looking at a blend of HREF/HREF90. NBM 24max gust potential for Sunday does show up to 55 mph with Leola Hills/Corson County hitting 60mph, however, the NBM 25-75th spread for max gusts is 10-15 mph. So with collab went NBM/NBM90 for wind and gusts Sunday with gusts of 45-55 mph. With collab, did issue a Wind Advisory for the entire CWA.

CAMs are pretty consistent indicating light snow moving in from ND early Sunday morning (~3-5Z) over north central SD and along the ND/SD border, tracking southeast, mainly east of the Mo River. Just a bit of a difference in coverage area whether its more of a skinny band of snow or wider. CAMs then show light bands/streamers of snow behind it over portions of central and northeastern SD. This looks to move out by the late afternoon. However, HREF really only shows this first main wave of snow affecting far northeastern SD/western MN with less in the way of snow streamers behind it so there is a bit of a difference. Latest NBM pops does a good job incorporating all of this with the highest pops of 35-55% James Valley and eastward. Probability of an inch of snow is 40 to 60% east of the James River. The combination of winds and snow (that occurred with the last event plus additional falling snow) will once again lead to drifting and blowing snow, especially over far northeastern SD/western MN (and especially over the higher elevations of the Coteau) that would lead to a reduction in visibility. Did not have enough confidence just yet to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this area. Will let the day shift look at it and either issue WWY along with the Wind Advisory or merge the two together into just a Winter Weather Advisory.

With this arctic airmass in place it will be a chilly with highs in the single digits to the lower 20s with the coldest temps James Valley and eastward. Overnight lows will dip down to a couple of degrees below zero to around 12, again coldest James Valley and eastward. Temps then warm through the early morning as the cliiper's warm front track east across the CWA with temps by 12Z in the teens James Valley and eastward to the 20s/30 west of here. These temps will hold for a few hours before the cold front dips down from the north and temps will then fall back into the single digits to upper teens by late afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

This period will continue to feature northwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Plains through the majority of the upcoming week. Within the flow there will be embedded shortwave troughs that may periodically move through the region that won't provide much in the way of any sensible weather. However, one wave of note we'll have to keep an eye will be on Tuesday into Wednesday when guidance is in fair agreement indicating a disturbance will track through the area. At this time, this upper trough will have the best chance for bringing in some light precipitation to the area. In house ensemble guidance continues to paint a 20-30 percent chance for light snow across portions of northeast SD and west central MN the latter half of Tuesday into Tuesday night. This system doesn't appear at the moment that it will be a blockbuster event. Moisture values appear to be limited but enough to produce some light snowfall. NBM probabilities of a 24 hour 1 inch or greater snowfall ending early Wednesday range between 20-40 percent along and east of a line from Mobridge to Redfield to Brookings. Beyond this time frame, guidance remains inconsistent with the timing and placement of any additional waves that may deliver potential for more precipitation, but the end of the week seems to be the most favored time our area could see the next chance.

As far as temperatures go through the period, Monday will start off cold with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero and wind chill values between 15-25 below zero. Mild air will try and sneak into the area on Tuesday ahead of that next upper trough where we could see daytime readings close to normal. The latter half of the week will feature gradually cooling temperatures back below normal with the potential for another shot of arctic air returning late in the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SN are diminishing in coverage tonight and expect this trend to continue through the wee hours of Saturday morning. A few pockets of MVFR/IFR VSBY still cannot be ruled out at the TAF sites as the remaining areas of -SN move through the region. CIGs remain a mix of low end VFR and MVFR across the region and also expect this to continue into Saturday before becoming primarily VFR by Saturday evening. Gusty northwest surface winds will continue through the first half of Saturday before diminishing during the afternoon and evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ006>008-011- 018>023.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003-015-033-045.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ004-005-009- 010-016-017-034>037-048-051.

MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ039-046.