textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild conditions through the day Tuesday, with well above normal highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Weak system brings slight chances (25%) for light rain over north central and northeast SD and west central MN Tuesday evening. Any rainfall amounts likely less than 0.25in.

- Brief cool down Wednesday through Friday, with highs only in the 30s and 40s on Thursday. Above normal temperatures likely returning by next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

See the updated aviation discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

As of 6z, the satellites are showing some higher clouds moving over central and northeastern SD and not many signs of fog developing. A couple of models show some patchy fog developing over the James River Valley along a bit of warm air moving into the area in front of a cold front moving in during the morning. However, other models do not show this fog developing. If fog does develop in the James River Valley, it will reduce visibilities slightly, but the visibilities will most likely stay above one mile. The warm air moving in overnight and high surface pressure over SD today will help to warm the temperatures to be 10- 20 degrees warmer than normal, even with some cooler air advecting in behind a cold front moving through this morning. This cooler air will help to cool temperatures on Tuesday to be only 10-15 degrees warmer than normal.

Tuesday evening into Wednesday, an upper-level shortwave will travel along northwesterly flow aloft over SD. This shortwave will help to support a surface low pressure that is moving over SD during that time. Some models have shifted the track of the low over SD to the southwest compared to previous model runs where the low was over ND then moving over MN. This has caused the precipitation chances to be shifted to the west. Other models have continued to keep the low track from ND over northeastern SD into MN, which keeps precipitation chances over far northeastern SD and west central MN Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Because of the variability in the models, there is lower confidence in precipitation chances, with a 15-25% chance for scattered rain showers to move over portions of north central and northeastern SD Tuesday evening into the early overnight hours. There will not be a lot of rainfall from the rain showers, with a 15-45% chance for 0.01in of rain to fall over portions of north central and northeastern SD and a 0-10% chance for 0.1 inch of rainfall over far northeastern SD and west central MN.

Behind the low pressure, the upper-level flow will become northerly as some higher surface pressure moves starts to build in Thursday and Friday. The northerly flow will push colder air in Wednesday through Friday, keeping temperatures around normal for this time of the year. Highs will be in the mid 30s to 40s on Thursday because of this. The flow will become southerly during the weekend, which will help to push warmer than average temperatures back in.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail. The only aviation concern will be low level wind shear (LLWS) through ~15Z. Warm air advection ahead of a surface trough will not only allow for a very stable air mass, but also a westerly component surface wind under 2 KM northwest winds gusting to 25-35 KTS. By late afternoon winds will be uniformly northwest through the lowest 2 KM and wind shear will no longer be a concern.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.