textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat will build through the weekend into early next week with near record to record temperatures expected and heat index values warming into the triple digits.

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat Advisory for parts of central and northeast SD and west central MN remain in effect today through Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The main concern for the next several days will be the building heat dome across the Northern Plains that is progged to deliver some of the warmest temperatures of the season so far along with a prolonged stretch of dangerous heat conditions. This will all be thanks to an upper ridge of high pressure that will build from the southwestern parts of the country into the Northern Plains today into Sunday. This ridge is progged to park and center itself over South Dakota through the first half of next week. Guidance progs 500mb geopotential heights to increase from around 588 dam today to around 600 dam on Sunday. This is indicative of an exceptional ridge and is often associated with major heat waves. Large scale subsidence will lead to impressive warming temperatures aloft that will suppress cloud cover and precipitation chances for most of this forecast period.

850mb thermal progs for the next few days indicate temperatures of +21C to +29C from east to west across the CWA will be maintained today through Monday. Daytime highs today will reach the low to mid 90s from the James Valley and points east to the mid 90s to low 100s across central SD. The core of the warmest portion of the air mass will settle across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday with mid 90s to near 100 degrees from the James Valley east into west central MN while central SD sees highs in the upper 90s to low 100s all 3 days. With dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s west to the mid 60s to low 70s east expected for the next several days, there won't be much relief during the overnight hours with lows only able to cool into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Daily heat index values will top out in the upper 90s to low 100s for most locales during these next several days with the exception of east central sections of SD where values will be a tad cooler. Heat headlines have been issued for today through Tuesday and will remain in place as is for now with an Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat Advisory for everywhere else with the exception of east central SD and the Watertown area. By Monday into Tuesday of next week, some locales will have their current record high temperatures and record warmest low temperatures threatened by this exceptional heat wave.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patchy fog has settled in the James Valley this morning with KABR down to 8SM. Patchy fog will remain possible mainly James Valley and eastward and will burn off through the morning as the sun continues to rise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021- 033>037-045-048-051. Extreme Heat Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016. MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039- 046.