textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and weak thunderstorms (20-40%) are expected over north central and northeastern SD this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is anticipated, however, heavy rainfall is possible at times.

- Additional spotty chances of rain and weak thunderstorms (15-30%) will be possible tonight through Saturday afternoon across central and northeastern SD.

- Average to slightly below average temperatures expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

As of 18z, there are scattered showers over portions of north central SD. These showers are connected to the Lee of the Rockies surface trough over western SD that has started to move east. This trough will continue to move through western and central SD this afternoon and into the evening. A little bit of instability will be developing over western SD this afternoon, with models showing between 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, and could help some storms to develop amongst the showers along the boundary. There is even weaker instability shear over central SD that will have a hard time supporting the storms when they move through during the evening into the early overnight hours. This will likely cause the storms to dissipate before they are able to reach northeastern SD. With shear values around 30kts and weak lapse rates, it will be hard for the storms to become severe. However, there could be an occasional non- severe but strong wind gusts from pop up or dying storms. Additionally, with the upper and mid level flow from the southwest, there is a lot of moisture being pulling into central and northeastern SD. This could help the scattered showers and storms to develop localized heavy downpours this afternoon into the early overnight hours.

The showers and storms look to die back overnight into Saturday morning, though some models show an isolated shower or two trying to pop up occasionally. Coming in behind the surface trough is a cold front that will be moving trough central and northeastern SD Saturday morning into the afternoon. With a little bit of instability developing ahead of the front through the day, some scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop along it. Models show that shear values will be less than 30kt and there will be weak lapse rates, which will help to keep the storms from becoming severe if any develop. The cold front, as well as the chances for showers and storms, will be moving out of central and northeastern SD during late Saturday afternoon. Behind the cold front, high surface pressure will be moving in and will help to keep precipitation from forming during the evening overnight into Sunday.

Temperatures will be around normal to slightly cooler than normal today though Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Then a bit of warmer air will be moving in Sunday night into the beginning of the week, which will help the temperatures to warm slightly. The southwesterly flow aloft will continue to help to move wildfire smoke out of central and northeastern SD the next couple of days. This will help to keep the skies from becoming hazy from the smoke.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There are lower clouds at KPIR that will continue for a few hours creating MVFR to IFR conditions at times. While these conditions look to improve to VFR later in the afternoon, the conditions at KATY will start to decrease as lower clouds are forecast to move in creating MVFR conditions during the evening and IFR conditions later during the overnight. Some patchy fog also looks to move in to KATY and KABR early Saturday morning, reducing visibilities and conditions to MVFR to IFR and even possibility LIFR at KATY. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the other terminals. Southeasterly winds will increase during the afternoon, to be gusting up around 25 mph. The winds will decrease overnight and turn to be from the northwest as a cold front comes through early Saturday morning. There could be occasional showers and storms near the terminals through today and into Saturday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.