textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures recover to near normal on Friday before warming to above normal Saturday through Monday. Temperatures over much of the area are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, warmest Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns look to relax a bit Friday. Saturday will be windy, but not overly dry. Sunday could be problematic, though, if temperatures reach their full potential and westerly wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph persist all afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

At 1 PM CDT, temperatures range from the upper 20s over portions of north central South Dakota to around 40 degrees along the southern/southeastern periphery of the forecast area. Skies are overcast. Light snow that started to develop earlier this morning over northwest South Dakota has continued to spread/develop east across the forecast area. Some locations have seen light snow accumulations on grassy surfaces. Winds are light and variable as well.

Surface high pressure over the region tonight into Friday will keep winds rather light. The ongoing banded snow event should be exiting the eastern/southeastern forecast zones this evening. If snowfall could be accurately measured for this event (warm temperatures compacting and melting wet snow as it falls/accumulates), most areas that receive snow are looking at generally less than an inch of accumulation. But, due to the banded nature of this ongoing event, some locations may receive locally higher amounts...2-3in). Then, dry conditions are expected to ensue for the rest of tonight through Friday night. Aloft, a rex block pattern is just off the west coast, with the upper ridge's influence continuing to spell a period of northwest flow over this region. Precipitation chances over this CWA start back up again Saturday/Saturday night, at the earliest, as the first of several areas of low pressure in the upper low circulation portion of this west coast rex block start working back into the mean flow, heading toward the central plains. Upper level steering winds over this CWA are expected to become southwesterly aloft on Saturday in response to this upper circulation opening up and lifting out onto the plains. Southwest flow aloft is expected to persist into the first half of next week. Currently, models depict a break in the precipitation chances around the middle of next week, as shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure work over the Dakotas between systems. But, model consensus right now is for longwave troughiness to maintain more influence over the western CONUS than longwave ridging can, which potentially places this region in more of a westerly or southwesterly (potentially continued active?) flow pattern aloft heading into the second half of next week.

The ensemble-supported potential warm-up in store for Friday through Monday still shows up in guidance today, including a 55 to 95 percent chance the high temperature on Sunday will warm to 80 degrees or warmer. There are even a few pockets of 15 to 25 percent probability of temperatures reaching 90 degrees on Sunday. As is usually the case though, in early/mid spring, the potential for cloudy (stratus or otherwise) conditions to develop and hamper the warm-up will have to be closely monitored. If high temperatures Sunday do in fact end up panning out in the low to mid 80s, several locations could tie/break their high temperature records.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There is snow falling currently at KMBG. That has flight cat bouncing between MVFR and IFR in falling snow. KABR/KATY have just lifted out of MVFR, joining KPIR in VFR flying weather conditions. However, the falling snow will be reaching KABR within the next 1-2 hours, and KATY probably between 20Z-21Z. When it does, these terminals will be experiencing (IFR visby in snow) conditions similar to those currently at KMBG. KMBG/KABR and KATY should be gradually returning to a VFR flt cat between late this afternoon and late this evening, once the falling snow ends. KPIR is forecast to remain VFR throughout the TAF valid period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

It appears as though strong southerly winds develop for Saturday. But afternoon relative humidity values are not forecast to drop off much past 35 to 45 percent. Sunday is a bit more troublesome, as the potential for both relative humidity and wind gust criteria to be met is possible, particularly across portions of central and south central South Dakota. Keeping and eye on Sunday for possible fire weather headlines.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.