textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of fog will develop tonight into Sunday morning.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms Monday evening through Monday night east of a line from Frederick to Murdo.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to nudge into east central SD this afternoon, though the activity has mainly stayed south of Hwy 212. This is all associated with a shortwave and elongated sfc trough along the MN/SD border. Humid but generally dry conditions are expected behind this trough as sfc high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight. Lighter winds and latent moisture will likely lead to fog redeveloping tonight into Sunday morning across the area.

When the high exits Sunday night, additional shortwaves and a weak llj may gin up some showers, but more widespread precipitation chances are not anticipated until a cold front moves through Monday night and Tuesday. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms Monday night with the front, and that risk will probably extend into Tuesday though location is still tenuous. While any sfc focus shifts south, shortwave activity will increase across South Dakota on Tuesday. At a minimum, this additional energy will bring increased chances for locally heavy rain. The active and wet pattern finally seems to wane in the latter half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs are expected to improve to VFR by 21z at KABR and KATY. Fog may redevelop overnight into Sunday morning, but location and intensity is difficult to pin down with enough confidence to add to tafs at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.