textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly colder highs for today, ranging from 10 degrees to the mid 20s with overnight lows in the single digits below zero to the single digits above zero. Warmer temperatures are expected early next week.

- A storm system midweek will bring the potential for light precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Low confidence on exact precipitation type and amounts at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

As of 1am, a large mid level low continues to spin over the eastern Great Lakes with the CWA on the downstream side of a ridge currently over the western CONUS. The low level clouds that have been lingering over the far eastern CWA (and produced flurries) is finally tracking eastward with overall clear skies. Models indicate a shortwave tracking out of Canada, and riding southeast on the downstream side of the ridge and over the eastern Dakotas/western MN through the morning before continuing southeast and out of the region by the afternoon. As the wave exits the region we do dry out between 500-850mb through the midday, however, GFS/RAP still holds onto moisture/clouds at 925mb James Valley and eastward. So not enough confidence on continuing flurry mention, but they still could be possible over far northeastern SD/western MN through the midday. Otherwise an elongated high pressure system will continue to track across Canada and over central Manitoba by this evening with the CWA on the southern extent of this high, which will help dry out the lower levels. By Monday morning, the high will track over western Ontario with the CWA on the western side of its ridge as a gradient sets up over central and western SD, to the east of a surface trough/warm front associated with a developing low in Canada. So overall forecast looks to be dry today through Monday.

ENS/GEFS are overall coming together on this elongated west to east oriented area of low pressure along the Canada border/MT Monday evening and tracking eastward across the Northern Plains/Canada border Tuesday, and over the Great Lakes Region by Wednesday. Still a bit of a difference on exact placement at this time as GEFS is a bit more south over MN (and weaker) Tuesday 12Z while ENS is stronger and more northward. As the main low tracks east, a warm front will also track east across the CWA as winds will be southerly to southeasterly Monday evening through early Tuesday. The cold front will then track over the CWA from the northwest Tuesday morning where it stalls out over the middle part of the state through Wednesday morning (with a secondary area of low pressure along the front) before finally moving out as this main low will then track southeast and over the ~Great Lakes Region Wednesday/Thursday.

As of now, the bulk of of the precip looks to be associated with the cold front/back side of low, and could be a banded setup along the cold front as a high will be just to the north, over ND/Canada Wednesday morning, sinking southeast through early Thursday. Models are not consistent yet in regards to exact QPF amounts. This possible banding is shown well in the deterministic models as GFS has a narrow band of higher qpf (0.50"+) extending from northwestern ND through east central SD while EC is similar in regards to track but less amounts (~0.10- 0.15"). NBM prob of QPF>0.10" for the 24 hours ending 12Z Thursday does show 30-40 chance in the same location of GFS/EC from north central SD and southeastward through east central SD. Prob of 0.25" is 25% or less, highest over the Coteau. NBM probability of snow of 1" is 20-35% for this area. Grand ensemble plumes for snowfall at KABR/KATY show around the 1-2" range with high end amounts (90th percentile of 4-5"). Exact ptype will be highly dependent on temps (especially over central SD) as NBM 25-75th spread is 10+ degrees over the CWA. Our next chance of precip beyond this time will not be until the end of the week/weekend with pops of 20-35% Friday night through Saturday as another low is forecast to track along the Northern Conus/Canadian border. Very low confidence on exact details this far out.

Temps will remain cold today per northwest flow at 850 and northerly flow at the surface with highs around 10 to the mid 20s, coldest over north central through northeastern SD/western MN with lows tonight ranging from the single digits below zero to the single digits above zero (used NBM/NBM25th). As the ridge builds and winds turn southerly, this will bring in warmer air for Monday with highs ranging in the 30s to 50s over central SD. Still colder behind this low to our east with highs in the 20s and 30s James Valley and eastward. Tuesday we do see temps warm in the 30s to 50s across the CWA, warmest south central SD.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all terminals through most of this forecast period. Although, KATY may see a period of high end MVFR/low end VFR cigs later this morning into the afternoon. Northerly winds will persist into tonight with KABR/KATY seeing gusts around 20 knots by late morning into the afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.