textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight Risk for severe weather is in effect along and south of US Highway 12. Areas to the north of US Highway 12 are under a Marginal Risk. Storms are expected to initialize in the afternoon and continue through the evening. Large hail of 1-2" in diameter will be the main threat, with wind gusts of 60 mph as a secondary threat. Can't rule out a tornado over central South Dakota or heavy rainfall leading to flooding.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

UPDATE

Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Remnants of today's severe weather event are moving out of the forecast area this morning, with just a couple of lingering showers and weak thunderstorms remaining as of roughly 07Z. Isolated rain showers may stick around for the next few hours, but no significant storms or heavy rainfall is expected to develop through the rest of the morning.

A shortwave aloft moves overhead today, bringing chances for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Model guidance has struggled lately, and today appears to be no different. While location and timing vary significantly model to model, the general theme is that scattered storms will pop up in the afternoon somewhere over central to north central South Dakota (east of the Missouri River). Storms will progress eastward into northeastern and north central South Dakota through the evening, before a second round moves into central South Dakota from the west. Hail will once again be the main threat due to the CAPE/Shear combo over the area, along with mid-level lapse rates over 8 C/km proving very favorable. Damaging wind is also a concern, as DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg are expected. The best environment for both hail and wind appears to be over central and north central South Dakota, but these hazards are expected to continue over northeastern South Dakota still. Can't rule out an isolated tornado over central South Dakota either, and there is a signal for some strong low-level curvature in the hodographs in that area. However confidence remains low, as there is much disagreement in the CAMs on the timing and location of the potential tornado threat. Also can't quite rule out the potential for excessive rainfall leading to flooding, especially over areas that have seen a lot of rain already this past week.

By this weekend, zonal flow will transition to a ridge building over the Northern Plains, with a longwave trough developing over the western CONUS. The ridge overhead will bring dry conditions for a change through the weekend. Also expecting a brief warmup over the weekend due to the warmer airmass, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area both Saturday and Sunday. The next chances for rain come along a cold front passing through early next week (passage likely coming either Sunday night or Monday morning. Medium-range ML models do show some chances for severe weather along the front, but that will be an analysis for another day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KABR/KMBG could see a little bit of fog initially in this forecast cycle early this morning potentially down to MVFR levels, but it should be short-lived. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected at least through mid to late morning across central SD and through at least early afternoon across northeast SD. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central SD and potentially affect KPIR/KMBG by late morning and midday. This activity is expected to expand east into northeast SD during the afternoon and evening and potentially impact operations at KABR/KATY. MVFR cigs and vsby's will be possible in areas of heavier TSRA/+TSRA'S. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR conditions should prevail through this TAF cycle.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.