textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak system today bringing 20-60% chances (highest across north central SD) for light rain. Amounts very light and remaining under 0.10in for most areas.

- Chances for precipitation (20-40%) Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence on precipitation type is low.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 256 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Cold front will be dropping south across the CWA this morning while an area of weak low pressure begins moving eastward across southern SD. Area of mid-level lift drifts southward into the CWA through the day while we gradually moisten the column. Although, overall saturation and available moisture is rather lackluster and still only expect light amounts of precipitation. Given the mild temps in the 40s today, looking at rainfall as the predominant precip type, with perhaps some flakes of snow mixing in this evening. But again, amounts look to be light with HREF probability of receiving anything more than 0.10in only around 10 percent or less. So, maybe a few hundredths at best. Highest chances for measurable (40-60%) are in place across north central SD, with most other areas generally 10- 30%. And, chances really begin to dwindle even more by this evening.

Surface high pressure begins moving into western SD tonight into Tuesday, bringing dry conditions. With a mild air mass still in place over the region on Tuesday (925mb temps +0C to +5C), look for temps to rise into the upper 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 256 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

High surface pressure is moving out of SD Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Behind this high, a low surface pressure moves into WY Wednesday and then into SD Wednesday night. Over the past few model runs, the models have come into more agreement of this low moving into southwestern SD and moving through southern SD Wednesday night into Thursday. The models still have variability in when and where precipitation occurs though.

Some models start the precipitation in southwestern SD and move it east while other models have more moisture aloft in central and eastern SD to help precipitation develop over those areas. The ECMWF P-type meteograms show higher chances for precipitation over areas in eastern SD with most members showing snow occurring. At the same time, only a few members show rain/freezing rain occurring in central SD. Some model soundings over northeastern SD have an inversion aloft Wednesday evening that is warmer than freezing. Through the evening, that inversion cools as moisture starts to move in, and by the time there is enough moisture for precipitation to get to the surface, the temperatures aloft are below freezing and the precipitation type looks to be snow through Thursday morning. However, other model soundings show temperatures aloft staying above freezing through the night and could cause rain/freezing rain to occur in northeastern SD. An eye will need to be kept on the models to see if they come to more of a consensus on precipitation type and timing as we get closer to it occurring. Depending on when and what type of precipitation occurs, the snowfall amount that could happen vary. Ensembles show that there is a 15-25% chance for an inch or more of snow accumulation occurring east of the Prairie Coteau by Thursday evening. Otherwise, snowfall amounts don't currently look to add up to much, though this could change in the upcoming day as the models come to more agreement.

Higher surface pressure, as well as some drier air aloft, moves in over the state behind the low Thursday night into Friday. These both help to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD through the rest of the week. Max temperatures through the week and the weekend look to stay 10-15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year, while the minimum temperatures are forecast to be 10-20 degrees warmer than normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions can be expected to prevail at all terminals through this next 24 hour forecast cycle. SCT/BKN mid to high level cloudiness is expected. Winds will turn gusty out of the northwest Monday afternoon in the wake of a cold front that will sweep through the area.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.