textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

We are monitoring the showers and thunderstorms over southwestern SD late this afternoon, that if they stick together, will be near Jones County shortly after 01Z. Thin high clouds are nearing from ND and there are lingering daytime cumulus clouds over portions of Corson and Dewey Counties. No significant changes are anticipated in the ongoing forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A strong area of low pressure will cross the Canadian prairies and into the Great Lakes region later tonight through Monday morning. Increasing westerly-southwesterly winds develop ahead the cold front with half km winds reaching 35 to 50 knots between 3-12Z Monday. A downslope wind event may be possible along the lee side of the Prairie Coteau with gusts exceeding 45 mph. The cold front pushes through the CWA, starting around 12Z, with 925 mb temps falling to the single digits above by 18Z. There is a 20 percent chance for light showers along the frontal boundary. However, the amount of available LLM is limited with precipitation potential placement around a fourth of an inch at most. Some CAMS are showing additional instability showers post frontal Monday afternoon. An inverted V sounding coupled with high bases, even with some instability, am not expecting a great deal of QPF. Any additional showers should dissipate during the evening hours. Gusty northerly winds may be the main issue post frontal as the NBM shows 30 to 50 percent chance gusts exceed 40 mph, mainly along and west of the James River valley. As of now, winds may fall short of advisory levels.

The rest of the forecast period appears to be mostly dry, with cold temperatures midweek. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday warm into the upper 40s, to the 50s, or 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. NBM suggests near record, within 5 degrees, low temperatures Wednesday morning with lows in the mid 20s. Temperatures will warm through the rest of the period with highs returning to the 70s for Mother's Day weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase overnight just above the surface, with low level wind shear possible 07-13Z Monday at ATY. Expect winds to increase during the day Monday, out of the northwest with gusts of 30-35kts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.