textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend in place through mid-week, with temperatures persistently above average today through the end of the 7-day forecast. Highs range in the upper 70s to upper 80s throughout the period. Monday and Tuesday could see highs reaching or exceeding the 90F degree mark (15 to 20 degrees above normal) in some places.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop and move into portions of east central SD this evening.

- Daily isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent chances) may be taking shape as early as Wednesday of this upcoming week, persisting through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 903 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

No changes planned to the today period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As a warm front passes through the area this morning, warm air will be making its way into SD. This warm air will help temperatures increase over the next couple of days. Today will be 5-10 degrees warmer than normal, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the warm air keeps pushing in, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal, with the chance for highs to get into the upper 80s to low 90s.

A low level jet is forecast to set up over southeastern SD today. This jet could help with the development of showers and storms over eastern SD. While the jet will stay mostly out of central and northeastern SD, parts of east central SD (mainly Deuel & Hamlin county) could get clipped by the edge of the jet. With the warm, moist air moving in over eastern SD as well as a bit of instability, the jet could help develop some scattered showers and storms over east central SD during the evening. The high-res models mainly forecast the storms not reaching up far enough to get into east central SD, but there is still a chance something could either form or move into east central SD. Monday is forecast to have a similar environment, and could see some isolated showers or storms over parts of south central SD. Currently, the chances are lower and severe risk is not there, but an eye will need to be kept on upcoming model runs to see if things change.

A blocky upper-level ridge/split flow will be starting to build over the midwest Monday and Tuesday and then is forecast to sit there through the rest of the week. During that time, an upper-level trough will be developing over the Rockies, which will help a surface trough to develop over WY/MT/CO. The models also show some slightly higher pressure developing over the Great Lakes, which will cause a slight pressure gradient over SD and some stronger winds to develop aloft over western and central SD, kinda like a low level jet. This could then help more isolated showers and storms to develop Tuesday and Wednesday. The highest chances for more rain and storms are currently forecast to happen during the last couple of days in the work week. Models still vary on the location, intensity, and timing of these showers and storm chances, so it is something to keep our eyes on. Cold air is forecast to start pushing into SD along the surface trough Tuesday and onward, which will help to cool surface temperatures slightly. Highs are still forecast to be in the upper 70s to 80s after Tuesday, which is still warm.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.