textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will become more widespread today through early Tuesday. Probabilities of seeing one inch or more range from 20-50 percent across north central SD to 50-90 percent from south central SD into northeast SD and west central MN.

- Rain and low clouds will bring visibility down to around 2 miles or less Monday afternoon.

- Snow will mix in with the rain on Monday and Monday night across central SD. Minor accumulations, especially on grassy surfaces, will be possible. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of seeing two inches or more from Eagle Butte to Gettysburg and south to Hayes.

UPDATE

Issued at 742 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Steady light rain continues, with rainfall totals so far ranging from around 0.35" over south central SD, to 0.15" or less across northeastern SD and west central MN. Expect the cloudy conditions to continue into Tuesday. While the steady rain will diminish near the ND/SD border, it will linger south of U.S. Highway 12 through Monday morning before expanding north of the highway once again. Lower visibilities are expected Monday afternoon, to around 2 miles or less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rain continues to spread north and east early this afternoon. The first wave is concentrated across east central SD while a second wave is moving into central SD. Areas in between are filling in but are battling a layer of very dry air near the sfc with 15 degree dewpoint spreads under sfc high pressure. The 18z sounding at ABR shows saturation from 700mb up. As the bubble of high pressure erodes, the northern edge of the precipitation will continue to battle drier air to the north as the sfc high digs into ND tonight. Could see rain taper off Monday morning before it's reinforced by a stacked low moving out of Colorado and into the Plains.

As models rotate the upper low and 700mb low into central SD Monday afternoon and evening, forcing and ascent are expected to increase which will enhance precipitation. With the sfc low in central NE, there has been a notable shift in precip, though, farther south and east Monday. Snow potential now covers most of central SD with less accumulation expected in Corson county. 90th percentile still shows local amounts as high as 3 to 4 inches, but located from Eagle Butte to Gettysburg with 25th to 75th percentiles ranging from nothing to an inch for most areas. As mentioned in previous discussions, models have a notoriously difficult time pinpointing H7 low tracks, so confidence in location and amounts of snow continues to be low.

With the cloud cover, adjusted hourly temperatures higher overnight than NBM. Blended toward hi-res which account for non-diurnal spread a bit better. As the low moves northeast Monday night, could see some intensification of precip along the Coteau in the pivot point. A nose of warmer air will keep the precip all rain, though. The system exits Tuesday morning.

Temperatures remain cool through mid week, but a building upper ridge will push highs back into the 50s and 60s for the latter half of the work week before another cold front moves through late Friday. This front will also bring additional chances for precipitation for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 742 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR conditions will continue at ABR and MBG until 18Z Monday before dropping to MVFR. Expect MVFR ceilings at PIR to erode to IFR after 09Z, with most locations. Visibility will be around 1-2SM Monday afternoon with the lower MVFR/IFR clouds and steady rain.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.