textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal today with light south southeast winds.

- Heat and humidity return for Friday, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s (15 to 25 degrees above normal). South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph.

- Peak heat Saturday, with highs in the 80s, about 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Lower humidity and southwest winds topping 25 to 40 mph (highest across the Sisseton hills) resulting in high fire danger across the east.

- Pattern change to cooler temperatures Saturday night into Sunday along with increasing chances for moisture Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

UPDATE for 12Z AVIATION discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

In regard to precipitation chances today, CAMS show some returns coming through later this morning. RRFS/RAP and HRRR BUFKIT profiles indicate moisture associated with this is AOA 12kft so little more than a sprinkle. Not much impact associated with this very subtle northwest flow wave otherwise, with weak high pressure moving east, return southeast low level winds for today. Clouds depart mid-day to the afternoon, so favorable daytime heating, but the wind direction is less than favorable for mixing.

CAMS still indicate warm advection elevated convection potential, but have shifted it more towards south central/southeast South Dakota. RRFS still has a moist/warm tongue at about 800mb, with convergence with steep lapse rates aloft. Something to monitor but unlikely to impact our area now.

For Friday, a plume of humid air comes up with the persistent south winds. NBM dewpoints top out around 60F, which will limit the fire danger while mixed winds top out around 20kts.

Saturday should be the warmest day for most of the area. First though, 1/2km winds increase out of the southwest to around 45kts with the core across the east/western Minnesota. This will likewise enhance downslope conditions with that warm air surge, though with only 45kts in the critical layer and unidirectional flow aloft translates to about 45 to 50 mph. In regard to just below record temperatures, GEFS 850mb thermal anomaly is still above 2 standard deviations above climo. Southwest low level flow will likewise enhance mixing, and we'll probably exceed the mean NBM which is currently running in the mid 80s.

Still looking like the wave for Monday is embedded within the northern stream and the cut off low over the 4-Corners fails to re- integrate until late in the 180 hour model timescale. Thus, while we retain POPs, overall rainfall amounts are fairly limited.

Much cooler air follows, especially when in comparison to the previous days. The difference between Saturdays and Mondays NBM highs is around 30 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period, with winds generally 10kts or less.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.