textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for storms developing this afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour.

- Chances for severe storms return Tuesday afternoon through evening, and a Slight Risk is in place for much of the forecast area. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 70 miles per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be possible. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over northeast SD and west central MN.

- A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures (low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming trend beginning by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 842 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468 was recently issued for the eastern CWA and have updated forecast/wording to reflect this. Also made adjustments to PoPs as current storm/shower coverage is much less than the what grids were indicating. Models still suggest some back-building southwest into the eastern CWA off the activity across western MN and southeast ND, but quite a bit of uncertainty as to the areal coverage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the mid to upper 80s with winds out of the southeast between 10 and 15 mph, gusting to about 25 to 30 mph. A front will move northwest to southeast across SD and stall about halfway across the area, bringing winds around to the northwest behind the front. This front will be the focus for some storms later this afternoon into the evening hours and again Tuesday afternoon/evening.

There is a low to our southwest over southwestern SD. This will not move much at all and be over central SD Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms over northeastern SD and west central MN along and east of a line from Aberdeen to Miller to Watertown. CAMs show storms moving into the northeast CWA around 7 PM and last until around midnight. MLCAPE over the region is between 1500 and 1800 J/kg with lapse rates of 7.5 C/kg. Bulk shear doesn't look amazing, only about 30 to 35kts. The RAP is showing DCAPE between 1000 and 1200 J/kg. Main hazards today are large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and strong wind gust of 60- 75 mph. With the lack of shear (bulk and surface level) the tornado threat is low but can't be ruled out. Tuesday, there is a slight risk over the entire forecast area and the environment is much more favorable. This is expected to be a more widespread event. While model soundings do show a cap, its not much of one (according to the RAP and HRRR) and storms should be able to break through it. CAMs are again showing storms getting started about 7 PM, this time over central SD and tracking across the entire CWA. Bulk shear is 30 to 40 kts with good surface shear. Lapse rates are in the 7-8 C/km range. Storms will have an increased chance of tornadoes (SPC has a 2% area over most of the CWA). Also possible will be large hail and strong wind gusts. Excessive rainfall and flooding with be possible with these storms due to heavy downpours and potentially slow moving/training storms. Wednesday also has a marginal risk for severe storms.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast for this coming weekend with heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees, especially over central SD. This will put HeatRisk values into the moderate to major categories, affecting anyone without access to cooling and hydration.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the TAF period. Although, will be watching potential for TSRA/+TSRA later this evening across northeast SD, possibly affecting KABR/KATY. Any heavier downpours that move over a TAF site will be capable of IFR/MVFR VSBY. Another round of TSRA are expected across the region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.