textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Fast moving system late tonight into the morning hours of Tuesday comes with a 50/50 chance for about 1/4" of moisture. Weak thunderstorms are unlikely to produce severe weather during the overnight hours.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms Tuesday afternoon/early evening along and east of the James valley into western Minnesota. Main threat is quarter sized hail, but there could be isolated gusts of 60 mph as well.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal through the work week. More seasonal temperatures and humidity return late week into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Made a few tweaks to hourly pops to account for ongoing light showers in the James valley. These showers will likely continue eastward until sunset.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

As of a 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures in the region are in the low 70s with generally light winds out of the southeast. Some storms will move into central and south central SD after midnight tonight. This will provide more moisture to areas that got rain this past weekend. Accumulations of less than a quarter of an inch are expected.

The main story of the 7 day will be storm chances. Showers and potentially some weak thunderstorms move across central and northeast SD during the mid to late morning hours Tuesday along a warm front. There is a good amount of shear at this time over eastern SD but there is limited instability. For the afternoon, behind the warm front, there is a good amount of instability but limited forcing with the current timing on the cold front moving in from ND. If the cold front moves in faster or the storms with the warm front linger longer, we could see some stronger storms, otherwise, the severe threat looks pretty isolated. There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms over eastern SD Tuesday. The main threat looks to be hail of 1 inch in diameter, but confidence is low on hail actually growing that big. Current lapse rate forecasts aren't super favorable for 1 inch hail at generally less than 7 C/km but model hodographs are fairly straight. A shortwave moves across the area Friday bringing a chance for some widespread rain and potentially thunderstorms. Saturday, the warm front from an incoming strong low pressure will move across the forecast area and start several days of thunderstorm chances. The low is currently forecast to move across SD Sunday and the cold front looks to be most of the way across eastern SD by Monday morning. This is still several days out but there is a good chance a severe outlook will be issued in the next couple days.

Temperatures through the period look to stay right around normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be strongest Saturday ahead of the incoming low pressure. Gusts look to be in the 30-40 mph range west of the Sisseton Hills/Prairie Coteau area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. MVFR cigs will move in late tonight to all sites except KMBG, though improvement is anticipated again by 21z Tuesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.