textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of scattered severe storms to develop or move over northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon into the night. These storms could produce locally damaging wind gusts.

- Today could see highs reaching or exceeding the 90F degree mark (15 to 20 degrees above normal). Record warm temperatures could be tied or broken in some places today. The rest of the week should see highs in the 80s.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent chances) during the evening and overnight exist from Friday through Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A low level jet has set up over northern NE and southern SD early this morning. This jet will help isolated to scattered storms and showers to continue to develop and move through southern SD and potentially develop into east central SD through the mid morning.

Through the day, an upper-level ridge will be building over SD as an upper-level trough and low develops to the west. With the ridge sitting over the state, warm air will be moving in. This warm air will get today's high temperatures up into the upper 80s to mid 90s, which could tie or surpass record warm temperatures in some areas. With these warm temperatures, some moisture in northeastern SD and west central MN, a fair bit of instability, and a frontal boundary trying to move into northeastern SD, storms and showers could pop up this afternoon into the overnight hours over northeastern SD and west central MN. While there is limited deep-layer shear over this area that could limit severe potential, there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms to form. With some steeping lapse rates, there could be locally damaging wind gusts from the storms.

Through the day into the evening, the low level jet will be moving and developing over western and parts of central SD along the edge of a surface trough located over the Rockies. This trough and low level jet will be sitting there into the weekend, and will help to get stronger winds to the surface during the afternoons, mainly for areas west of the Missouri River. Wind gusts this afternoon and the following afternoons could get up to 35 mph at times. These winds, in addition to the lower relative humidity values (below 20 percent), will create some elevated fire weather concerns in Jones and Lyman county this afternoon. Because fuels have greened up and with the rain from the end of last week, we are holding off on issuing any fire weather products even though the winds and relative humidity values reach Red Flag Criteria.

In combination with the low level jet that will sit over western and central SD through the rest of the week, moisture and some instability will move into that area. This will help with scattered shower and storm development during the afternoons and evenings in the latter half of the week into the weekend. There is currently a 20-40% chance of showers and storms west of the James River Valley during this time. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday onward, though they will still be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10-20%) for a SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon hours across northeast SD (KABR/KATY). But, with low confidence on coverage, will leave mention out of TAFs at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.