textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry forecast with weak systems/light amounts of moisture Thursday night and Saturday.

- Below normal temperatures (5 to 15 degrees) tonight/Wednesday. Near-normal temps Thursday - Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Cloud covers most of the CWA with some light returns but not actual moisture on any webcams or sensors. Temperatures have stalled in the 40s.

Current NBM deterministic values drop temperatures to around mid- upper 20s which is fairly close to the mean, however we do have the broad areas of mid level cloud cover thanks to daytime heating of this cool airmass. Upstream cloud cover includes some stratus in central Saskatchewan which may survive the loss of daytime heating, and pivot down into the northeast CWA tonight. Otherwise, the HRRR shows cloud cover dissipating across the area this evening with loss of daytime heating for ideal radiation conditions with dewpoints in the teens and evening temperatures in the 40s. The surface high is still off to the northwest with a ridge extending down across the area, meaning a light gradient will still be in place so winds won't totally go slack. Will trend towards the 25th percentile temperatures tonight.

Overall, the upper flow trajectory remains out of the northwest, with some variation in the intensity of the upstream ridge. Flow is initially out of central Canada but shifts more towards western Canada as a source region, which will temper temperatures towards seasonal for the latter half of the work week. Another northwest flow wave/clipper brings in some colder air for the weekend (though less so in comparison to the current cold snap), before shifting back towards the western Canada source region. Either way, we'll be a couple of degrees either side of normal late week/weekend. Interesting to note that the deterministic NBM falls around the lowest 25th percentile for Thursday through Saturday. Overall range in the 25th-75th percentiles is 5 to 8 degrees F which in the grand scheme of weather days 3-7 isn't all that much.

As for moisture, still not looking for any major drought relief. Got the weak/disorganized system for late Thursday/early Friday. NBM probability of exceeding 0.1" is only 10-20%, and most of the GEFS members fall to around 0.05" if they produce anything for Pierre (there are 2 outliers >0.1"). Another clipper-like wave follows for Saturday. Not a lot of confidence in this one either, with the GFS/EC/Canadian all showing slightly different areas of warm advection band rainfall in ND and the Western Lakes region, with another area of higher moisture over the western Dakotas. NBM probability of exceeding 0.01" is from 10% across the northeast to 40% across the western CWA. GEFS plumes show most of the spread in members is between 0 and 0.2" with just a few outliers higher.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals with CIGS up around 6-7kft. Winds out of the northwest go light tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.