textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog possible again this evening for at least northern SD into west central MN, with visibility around one-quarter mile or less.

- Northwest winds gusting from 40 to 55 mph tonight through Sunday evening. Wind Advisories in place.

- Snow accumulations from a trace to around 2 inches late tonight into Sunday morning. Low visibility around one-half mile possible over portions of the region when light to moderate snow and blowing snow occurs.

- Much colder air (single digits and teens) for the rest of the weekend into Monday. Wind chills at their coldest from 15 below to around 20 below zero for northern portions of the region.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast Sunday over portions of central/south central South Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 757 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Added Grant County to the Dense Fog Advisory. Introduced a Winter Weather Advisory to the CWA, basically mirroring the wind advisory already in place, but ending sooner than the wind advisory, except over far northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota where post-cold frontal snowfall may not end or may only end for a few hours before TROWAL-forced light/moderate snowfall potential picks up Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Also seeing a few hours of freezing drizzle potential tonight in RAP model soundings preceding the snowfall tonight while the column spends time fully saturating. Based on current snowfall forecast amounts of 1-3inches and expected sustained winds and temperatures, the blowing snow model has increased to definite blowing snow/potential whiteout-near whiteout conditions over portions of Marshall, Roberts, Traverse counties. If this trend persists, this winter weather advisory that has just been issued may end up needing to be upgraded either later tonight on the mid- shift or during the Sunday morning update window.

UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Watching more stratus and fog drifting southward across southern ND and starting to approach the state line this afternoon. Expect this to continue into the evening hours, with an increase in sky cover and fog coverage into the northern CWA. Certainly possible another headline might be needed for low visibility in fog this evening, as obs across the border in ND are down around one-quarter mile, with web cams looking quite foggy as well.

Main focus is on the strong winds/cold/snow moving in overnight and lingering through the day Sunday. It still appears strong winds move into central SD this evening and moved up the start time of the Wind Advisory to 01Z across the Missouri valley counties. The rest of the CWA gradually gets involved with wind headlines through the overnight hours. Overall, it appears gusts generally ranging from 40 to 55 mph will be common overnight and through the day Sunday, perhaps even into Sunday evening across the eastern CWA and did set expiration times to align with this thinking out east.

With the snow/blowing snow aspect of this system, total accumulations are still around 2 inches or less across the region, with highest totals across higher/upslope elevations in the Glacial Lakes eastward into Big Stone/Traverse counties. Any issues with low visibility in snow/blowing snow will have to occur during any pockets of moderate snowfall as there obviously isn't any blowable snow on the ground. Latest PotBlowingSnow grids don't lend too much high confidence in going with an advisory for snow/blowing snow, but suspect there will be areas that do see visibility around one-half mile or less when it's snowing moderately. Confidence was not high enough for a Winter Weather Advisory at this time, so stuck with a Wind Advisory and mentioned potential for blowing snow and low visibility within that product. Evening/overnight shift may take another look and decide to issue something different if confidence increases in larger scale low visibility impacts. Just have questions on overall snowfall rates and longevity to warrant a headline. Further east in MN it's a bit more of a slam dunk. Neighbors to the north/east (FGF/MPX) are still sitting with the Winter Storm Watch, so also felt best to issue something during their potential upgrades.

Will also be watching the cold air move in through Sunday into Sunday night/Monday when the center of the high pressure moves overhead. By Sunday morning, most areas should be in the single digits and teens, with steady temps throughout the day. Coldest apparent temperatures through this latest cold snap are generally from 15 below to around 20 below over northern portions of the CWA. So, still appears we are not approaching "headline-able" wind chills at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail to start the TAF period at KMBG, KPIR and KATY. KABR is going to start off in IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus. Prior to a strong cold front will move through the area tonight, will probably see more IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus reach KMBG and KATY. Behind the cold frontal passage, sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will develop from northwest to southeast and persist through Sunday. Light drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible prior to the onset of post cold fropa snowfall. The -SN/SN will also move eastward through the region tonight into Sunday morning, with potential MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in falling and blowing snow.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ005>008-010- 011-021.

Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for SDZ007-008-011-021.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003-004- 009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ005-010-017-036-037-051.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for SDZ005-010-017-036-037-051.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Sunday for SDZ006-018.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for SDZ006-018>020-022-023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-046.

Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for MNZ039-046.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for MNZ039-046.