textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts from 45 to 55 mph are expected through the day over central SD.

- Red Flag conditions will be occurring over northeastern SD and west central MN this afternoon as relative humidity values will fall below 25 percent and winds will be gusting 30 to 40 mph. If a fire were to ignite, it could become difficult to control or suppress.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

As of 07z, a couple scattered areas and lines of convection are moving over the James River Valley. This convection has been producing lots of lightening but the severe wind threat has been weakening through the night. The storms will continue moving east through the early morning. The cold front that the storms are developing on will be moving through northeastern SD this morning, with chances of showers and convection develop along the front decreasing through the morning. Some models have rain moving into north central SD this afternoon while others stop anything from developing due to the lack of moisture. Because of this, there is a 15-30% chance for scattered rain showers early in the afternoon over north central SD.

The surface low pressure will continue to sit over ND today, helping to create strong winds over central and northeastern SD. Winds over central SD have a 50-90% chance to gust up to and above 45 mph today, as well as have sustained winds over 30 mph in some areas. Because of this, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas west of the James River. Northeastern SD will have lighter winds that could still gust up to 35 mph at times. Additionally, even though there are some chances for rain to move through northeastern SD in the morning, RH values will be getting below 25% for areas east of the James River. The stronger winds and lower humidity values will lead to some fire weather conditions during the afternoon. As such a Red Flag Warning has been issued for northeastern SD and west central MN this afternoon.

The surface low will retrograde back to the northwest tonight, which will help to decrease the stronger wind gusts over central and northeastern SD Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will be cooling behind the cold front today into the weekend. Around average to about 10 degrees below normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Some of the models show some scattered rain showers developing Friday evening into Saturday over central and northeast SD, but this will depend on if there is moisture in the atmosphere for it. Currently there is a 20-35% chance for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday over central and northeastern SD. QPF amounts look to be less than 0.1 inch.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty westerly surface winds are forecast today from 30 to perhaps as high as 40-45 knots. Highest winds expected across KPIR/KMBG.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ007-008-011-019>023. Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015. Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ006-016>018-033>037- 045-048-051. MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.