textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- 10 to 15 degree below normal temperatures through Sunday night, with wind chills down around zero Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday timeframe.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

See the updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFS below.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A storm system that brought light, accumulating snowfall to parts of the CWA is pushing southeast of the region. As of 20Z, light, sporadic snow continues, with regional radar returns showing little pcpn in North Dakota. The pcpn should exit the CWA around 0Z, with dry conditions for the reminder of the short term portion of the forecast. A cold high pressure currently over central Saskatchewan, will sink southward tonight through Sunday and will produce the coldest air so far this season. Low temperatures for tonight is a little difficult, due to winds and cloud cover. If the winds subside and clouds clear, model guidance suggests overnight lows about five degrees colder, or in the single digits and low teens above zero. If the environment remains well mixed, or a mostly cloudy night, lows could be +5 degrees warmer, or in the upper teens and mid 20s. NBM guidance appears realistic at this time.

The surface high pressure should be over the region on Sunday, with high temperatures mostly in the 20s and low 30s. These readings are 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year. While the NBM is slightly on the higher side guidance, lowering the forecast high a degree or two does not change the cold message. Apparent T values drop to within a few degrees on either side of zero Sunday night into Monday morning.

Low temperatures Sunday night should be a few degrees colder, with reading in the single digits on mid teens. Sunday night will feature less mixing winds and a mostly clear sky.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The long term starts Monday morning with upper level winds out of the north. We have a low pressure system off to our southeast with a ridge coming in from the west. An upper level disturbance moves across eastern SD Tuesday and another ridge moves in Friday into Saturday.

Not really expecting anything in the way of active weather through the period. Temperatures will warm up into the 50s on Tuesday as some much warmer air moves into the region. This will continue through the end of the period as another round of WAA starts Thursday and lasts through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will occur for the first few hours of the TAF period. However, satellite trends show breaks in cloud cover upstream, so will see improving trends with time, but expect there to be periods of variability between MVFR/VFR until VFR conditions become the prevailing category. Breezy northwest winds persist through the next 24 hours. No reduction to VSBYs expected.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.