textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 35 to 60 percent chance of light rain and snow Thursday, with less than 0.10in of water equivalent precipitation and less than 0.5in of snow accumulation expected.

- High temperatures recover to near normal on Friday before warming to above normal Saturday through Monday. Temperatures over much of the area are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, warmest Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns look to relax a bit Friday and Saturday. But afternoon relative humidity values on Sunday may get close to 20 percent over portions of central and south central South Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Made a couple of minor changes this evening to the remainder of tonight's forecast. Winds noticeably began to diminish by sunset and have continued to follow that trend. Did cancel the Wind Advisory across our eastern zones early. A uniform area of stratus across ND continues to hug our far northeast zones and will likely persist into the early morning hours. Refreshed winds with the latest NBM data and increased cloud cover a bit and extended it out in time into early Thursday as a result.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies were a mix of sun and clouds. One cold front has moved through the CWA. A second cold front is making its way, southward, into the CWA early this afternoon. Any hints of early precipitation chances have all but dried up this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the 30s and 40s. Northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts 45 to 60 mph are sweeping southeastward into the forecast area. The strong winds are expected to extend over into west central Minnesota by late this afternoon, persisting into the middle of the evening before subsiding. The Wind Advisory has been extended in time and space as such.

Surface high pressure will set up over the region tonight into Thursday. Aloft, a rex block pattern is just off the west coast, with the upper ridge's influencing continuing to spell a period of northwest flow over this region. Models support a shortwave sliding southeastward across the region on Thursday, bringing the potential for some light snow or a rain/snow mix. Beyond that, precipitation chances will have to wait until Saturday/Saturday night, at the earliest, as the low pressure energy in the bottom of the west coast rex block is progged to start working itself back into the mean flow, heading toward the central plains over the weekend. Upper level steering winds are expected to become southwesterly aloft by the end of the day Saturday in response, and this should open the door for a handful of precipitation chances between Saturday afternoon/night and Tuesday of next week. Currently, models depict a break in the precipitation chances around the middle of next week, as shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure work over the Dakotas. As far as any potential precipitation amounts go, the probability of 0.10in or more of water equiv (rain) in any given 24 hour period containing PoPs in the 7-day forecast is less than 35 percent (in most cases it's less than 25 percent).

As for temperatures, there is an ensemble-supported warm-up in store for Friday through Monday, including a 55 to 90 percent chance the high temperature on Sunday will warm to 80 degrees or warmer. There are even a few pockets of 30 to 40 percent probability of temperatures reaching 90 degrees on Sunday.

As for fire weather concerns, after this afternoon's marginal relative humidity considerations (~20-30 percent), the only other day in the 7-day of concern right now shows up on Sunday, when Stanley/Jones/Lyman counties will be, once again, running afternoon humidities between 20 to 30 percent.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to prevail this evening into the mid to late mornings hours of Thursday. Northwest wind will remain gusty between 25-35 kts until sunset and then begin to gradually diminish later this evening into the early overnight. Light snow or a rain/snow mix remains possible during the late morning through late afternoon hours on Thursday. High end MVFR/low end VFR CIGs may be possible at KABR/KMBG during the mid- late afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.