textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will continue mainly east of the James River through the late afternoon. Strong winds will continue to gust out of the northwest 40 to near 60 mph over northeastern SD into west central MN, before diminishing through the evening hours. An additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible with the snow coming to an end this evening.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of December. Below zero wind chills area possible over northern SD each morning Thursday through Sunday. Wind chills will fall into the teens to near 20 below zero Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings.

- Friday through early Saturday morning has a 55-75% chance of snow with a 45-65% chance of more than 2 inches for the northeast third of SD. The heaviest snowfall is expected Friday afternoon through sunrise Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

As of 230pm, current radar indicates the moderate to heavy snow within the wrap around/trowal extending from Brown/Spink Counties and eastward through west central MN. Current temperatures range in the upper 20s into the lower 30s with wind gusts ranging from 30 to near 60mph. We have been dealing with visibilities as low as a fourth of a mile or less at times over portions of north central and northeastern SD due to this heavy snow band/blowing snow. CAMs are consistent on the wrap around snow continuing to push eastward with the last of snow exiting western MN by ~05Z or so. An additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible, mainly east of the James River (highest over the Coteau), with the snow coming to an end this evening.

With the CAA and tight pressure gradients, northwest winds will continue to be high, with gusts of 30 to near 60 mph, highest James River Valley and eastward through this evening. The combination of falling snow and winds will continue to lead to widespread blowing snow/blizzard conditions especially over the Coteau and eastward into MN through this evening. Through the overnight, gusts of 30-45 mph are possible over and east of the Coteau. As this system departs, high pressure will filter in from the west and over the region Wednesday through Thursday with dry conditions expected. Winds at this time will still be a bit breezy Wednesday between the exiting low and incoming high but will diminish west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening across the CWA.

With the colder air moving in behind the low and incoming high, temperatures will drop into the mid to upper teens to lower 20s. Wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Wednesday will only be in the 20s to the lower 30s (near to about 5 degree below average) with wind chills in the teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The main story for the long term is the Friday/Saturday snow. Models are in much better agreement on the track and timing of a mid level low moving across central SD. This low moves into north central SD Friday afternoon and moves southeast into central SD before turning more easterly and into southern MN by Saturday afternoon. With this increased agreement among the models comes a bit more certainty on snowfall amounts. The NBM is now showing a 45 to 65% chance of more than 2 inches of snow along and northeast of a line from Mobridge to Mitchell. This is a marked increase from yesterday. The chance for more than 4 inches is around 30 to 40% along a line from Ipswich to Clark. Overall, ensemble plumes are in pretty good agreement for around 2-3 inches of snow. The highest chance of snowfall looks to be between 55 and 75% Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.

Temperatures for the period are expected to be much colder than the past couple weeks, at 10 to 15 degrees below average. Sunday and Monday look to be the coldest, approaching 20 degrees below average. Past the end of the period there look to be hints of some warmer weather, although this is far from certain. With the low on Friday, we have a chance for some 35 to 45 mph gusts, mainly along and east of the James River, Friday afternoon and evening. This will reduce visibilities significantly in areas of falling snow. Of course, this will change if the track of the low changes. The NBM is a little on the low side with gusts right now, so this may need to be bumped up in the next couple days. The rest of the period looks to be in our normal 20 to 25 mph gust range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Heavy snow continues over northern portions of SD late this morning and it is expected to diminish fairly quickly from west to east during the afternoon and into the early evening hours. The snow, combined with the increasing northwesterly winds, will continue to bring visibilities down below 1SM and occasionally to 1/4SM at times. Once the falling snow comes to an end, the winds will remain up, but expect visibilities to improve as the snow on the ground will be fairly wet/heavy. The winds gradually diminish through the night and that will bring an end to any visibility restrictions from blowing snow by mid evening. High pressure will build in late tonight and for Wednesday, but do expect low stratus to remain into the morning hours for most of the area.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ007-008-021.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010.

Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for SDZ006.

Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ011.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ015>019-034>037.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ017>020-022-023.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for SDZ020-022-023.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ033-045-048-051.

MN...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-046.