textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and above average temperatures (40s and 50s) return for Thursday and Friday.

- Increasing west-northwest winds (25-35mph gusts) Thursday/Friday, along with lowering humidity (25-35 percent) will bring high/very high fire danger to central/south central SD.

- Snow chances (50-70 percent) return Friday night through Saturday. Generally, less than 4 inches expected as probability for 2 inches or greater is only 15-35 percent across northern SD.

UPDATE

Issued at 723 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

With weak surface high pressure continuing to be shunted east away from the CWA by an approaching surface warm front, southerly surface winds will take on more of a westerly direction, starting out west river and across the Missouri River valley this evening and working over to the Minnesota border by morning. Low level WAA will be occurring all night across the CWA. Temperatures overnight may not drop off all that much across the CWA west of the James River valley as this westerly component surface wind kicks in. Further east, temperatures are expected to steady out or perhaps even warm a few degrees later tonight after 06Z.

And, with this low level WAA set-up, expecting another downslope wind event in the lee-of-the-Prairie Coteau overnight. Gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible. But, with high temperatures on Tuesday having warmed to 37F at Sisseton and 35F at Watertown, not expecting much of the remaining snow on the ground on the lee- side slopes to blow/drift around much.

UPDATE Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Narrow band of snow continues to make progression east-southeast across the CWA early this afternoon. Been making adjustments to PoPs throughout the day to account for this. Also watching another area of rain showers across western SD, taking aim for the southwest CWA and may have to make some adjustments there as well. Looking at web cams where it has snowed, it would appear the most anyone received was maybe a few tenths to a half inch as the band of snow has been fairly progressive.

Tonight, a warm front will move eastward across the area, with milder temperatures in its wake for Thursday and even into Friday. 925mb temps warm to as high as +5C to +10C across the area during this time. We will also enter into some breezy/windy conditions both days, with west-northwest winds gusting between 25 and 35 mph for most areas. Humidity values drop to around 25 to 35 percent across central SD Thursday and Friday afternoon, so Grassland Fire Danger values bump up into the "Very High" category those days. For the time being, it appears criteria for wind and/or fire wx headlines is not met.

Focus then shifts to the snow potential Friday night into Saturday. Colder air begins moving back southward over the region on Saturday and lingers through the weekend as highs drop back down into the teens, 20s, and 30s. Models still show a band of accumulating snow running west to east across the CWA. Seems like a case (at least for now) where most accumulations are less than 4 inches. Probability for receiving 2 inches or greater is only about 15-35 percent from KMBG through KATY. Current forecast shows a general 1 to 2 inches over said region, but will be refining this in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There is a swath of MVFR stratus working across northeast South Dakota (currently over KABR). This stratus may work over KATY, as well, over the next 6 hours, as it makes its way southeast and out of the region later this evening/overnight. Have used a combination of satellite trends and short-term guidance to try and time the end of MVFR conditions at KABR this evening, and the start/end to MVFR conditions at KATY. Otherwise, all four terminals are forecast to be VFR during the TAF valid period, as south winds generally at or less than 10 knots switch around to the west by morning and increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.