textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A sharp cooldown is expected Saturday through early next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and south of Highway 14. A combination of dry fuels, wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour, and afternoon humidity around 20 percent will create critical fire weather conditions. Grassland Fire Danger will reach High for all counties west of Brown and Spink Counties and Very High west of the Missouri River.

- There is a Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms this evening over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Main severe threats include hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 75 miles per hour. A tornado cannot be ruled out either.

UPDATE

Issued at 441 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Just a quick update to expand POPs back into the Watertown/Sisseton areas as high clouds shifting east reveals some vigorous cu on Satellite, likewise the vigorous cu field is also showing up on the Clear Lake SDSU mesonet webcam.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Added a few counties to today's Red Flag Warning, covering all areas along and south of Hwy 14. After the northwest winds increase behind the sfc low, dewpoints behind the dry line to the south of the low will not rise. That puts southern Hand county in min RH of 20 to 25 percent. While not hitting strict RH criteria in the added counties, the 30 to 40 mph wind gusts are sufficiently high enough for high to very high grassland fire danger and merited the headline.

Hi-res models continue to be less than impressed with storm chances in northeast SD this evening keeping everything in west central MN starting at 0z. Still, with dewpoints in the 60s ahead of the low and steep lapse rates, if anything does develop around the cold front, it will be severe. Looking at a relatively short window of time, though, with the fropa. Strong winds and large hail look to be the main threats, especially back in SD.

Much cooler, fall-like temperatures push in behind the low with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. As another low moves into the Plains Sunday and Monday, rain and clouds could suppress temperatures even more, perhaps holding them in the 50s. There is a marginal risk on Sunday for areas south of Hwy 12. That's generally associated more with a potential 30 to 40 kt llj and passing shortwaves Sunday night as instability/forcing will be limited otherwise. Additional chances for rain arrive on Wednesday before high pressure and upper ridging build in for Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals with a north northwest wind component.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-035>037-045-048-051. MN...None.