textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild air remains through the rest of the weekend with above normal temperatures in the 30s and 40s east to the 50s to low 60s west. Above average temperatures continue into the work week.

- There is a slight chance (15-20%) for some light rain along the ND border Monday afternoon, but confidence remains low. There is also a chance (20-40%) for some precipitation Wednesday afternoon into Thursday but confidence on precipitation type is low.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Made some adjustments to beef up cloud cover along with the addition of fog into the forecast for later this evening through the overnight hours. Models have remained consistent on pushing this deck of low stratus down from the north into parts of north central/central and northeast SD. Some fog has already developed across ND this evening. As the stratus envelops parts of this forecast area, fog development is expected early Sunday morning. Some of it could become locally dense across north central SD toward daybreak Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

As of 2 PM CST, winds are out of the south to southwest between 10 and 20 mph with some gusts of close to 35 mph, highest over northeast SD. Temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees above average, 30s to low 40s east of the James River and upper 40s west of the James River. There is some signal among some of the high-res models for fog in the Missouri River valley tonight. Confidence is low on if and how far visibilities will drop, so left it out of the forecast for now.

We've got some good WAA over the region today bringing us much warmer temperatures with our southwesterly winds. Winds will switch back to the northwest as a front moves through today. Winds will become more westerly Sunday, through Monday, and give us another shot of WAA to raise temperatures even more (15 degrees above average east of the James River, closer to 30 degrees above average west of the Missouri River for Sunday). In fact, the whole 7-day forecast looks to be above average, although not as extremely as Sunday, mellowing out to around 10-15 degrees above. Did nudge Monday highs up just a smidgen.

There is a chance for some light rain showers along the ND border Monday afternoon, with potentially some snow mixing in for far northeastern SD so added in some very light PoPs (mainly over far northeast SD into west central MN). Little to no accumulation is expected. The best chance for some precipitation during the period looks to be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning as a relatively weak low moves across southern SD/northern NE. NBM PoPs have been increasing the last few runs, now sitting in the 20-40% range. Things start to move out after sunrise Thursday. P-types are a bit uncertain at this time. The ensemble forecast is showing snow or rain/snow mix as the dominant p-type during the vast majority of the event. However, temperatures rise a fair ways above freezing during the day with little to no saturation in the column (based on model soundings) so if precip did reach the ground, the p-type should be rain. We will keep an eye on this in the coming days and watch to see if more model members warm up or if overall highs cool down.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A deck of low stratus across ND late this evening will continue to shift southward into northern and central sections of SD overnight through Sunday morning. MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible at KABR/KMBG by about a 09Z-12Z Sunday time frame. Foggy conditions will be possible, especially at KMBG with vsbys down to IFR/LIFR status closer to daybreak into the mid morning hours. VFR conditions can be expected at KATY/KPIR through this TAF cycle and KABR/KMBG look to return to VFR conditions by late morning to early afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.