textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds, fog and light drizzle will persist through the morning hours before improving in most locations. However, the Prairie Coteau and I-29 corridor will see the low stratus and patchy fog continue into the afternoon.

- Light showers will be possible this afternoon across central SD before more widespread steadier showers move in tonight and Sunday as far east at the James Valley before tapering off to the south on Monday.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals the next several days before returning to near normal readings the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Low stratus, fog and light patchy drizzle continue early this morning across parts of the forecast area. The areas that seem to be the hardest hit are across northeast SD and the Prairie Coteau region where sfc obs and area webcams confirm the lower visibilities due to the fog and the drizzle. May need to consider a statement or a headline in the near future if conditions continue to worsen. Elsewhere, the fog and light drizzle are more patchy across west central MN as well as areas along and west of the James Valley. By mid to late morning, the fog and lower visibilities will improve across central and parts of northeast SD and west central MN. However, would anticipate the low stratus and patchy fog to persist across the Prairie Coteau and the I-29 corridor into the afternoon. Visibilities should improve by then with the possible exception of the Summit area.

Sfc analysis indicates a couple areas of low pressure within the region. The first one is located around Sioux City, IA and was the main culprit for our rain and drizzle on Friday. This system is progged to continue its trek south and east and away from our area. The second low pressure system is located in northeast WY around Gillette. It had been aiding some late evening showers and thunderstorms across western SD and the Black Hills region. That activity has either fizzled as it crossed through the northern Hills or dived southeast into NE where it has persisted. Weak shortwave ridging is expected across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas today which should help to keep most zones dry. Low level northeast flow should effectively maintain overcast skies underneath this ridging. Cooler than normal temps, mainly in the 60s are expected through the afternoon. An upper level low currently sits across the Great Basin. A shortwave trough rotating around this system will traverse northeast across WY into western SD today. This will provide the energy needed to generate more scattered showers across western SD. Some of these light showers could work into central sections of SD this afternoon. An increasing chance for more widespread precipitation is expected by Saturday evening into Sunday across the western half of SD as the upper level low rotates through WY tonight and into western SD and the NE Panhandle Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Rain chances get about as far east the James Valley late Sunday into early Monday before all the activity shifts south as the upper low slides south and east into NE on Monday and Monday night.

Guidance progs indicate that by late Monday into Tuesday we'll see a break from the precipitation has upper ridging briefly builds overhead. This may be our first widespread opportunity to see a break in the cloud cover. Southwest flow aloft will resume by Wednesday into Thursday. Another shortwave trough is expected to track northeast into parts of the Northern Plains on Wednesday into Thursday. This system will result in another chance for showers. Temperatures will begin to modify by this time frame with readings climbing back closer to late September normals. After the upper wave passes through by the end of the week, upper ridging is expected which will lead to a drier and warmer trend for the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low clouds, fog, and drizzle will remain in place across the region through the afternoon. CIGs are a mix of MVFR/IFR, but are forecast to become predominately IFR through the overnight into Saturday morning. Areas of FG/BR and -DZ/DZ will also be across the region, with VSBY dropping potentially to IFR/LIFR at times. KATY stands the best chance to see IFR/LIFR VSBY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.