textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday of next week will be between 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Dry conditions are anticipated through that same period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A cold front continues to sink southwesterly over the forecast area this afternoon, with a bank of fog persisting within the colder air behind the front. This fog has been fairly transient, moving off within an hour at most locations. However while fog is present, visibilities have dropped to between a half and a quarter of a mile. Behind the front, temperatures and dew points will continue to drop non-diurnally, as highs today will have been out ahead of the front this morning. Some strong post-frontal wind gusts (20-30 miles per hour) will linger through the remainder of the afternoon before subsiding this evening and overnight. Due to the combination of these winds and warmer temperatures in that area (due to being out ahead of the front for so much longer), parts of central South Dakota will have a High Grassland Fire Danger Index this afternoon.

The upper-level pattern of the ridge over the western CONUS is expected to continue, leading to benign conditions and temperatures 5-15 degrees above normal over the Aberdeen forecast area from Thursday through early next week. A few jet streaks are expected to ride down the front side of the ridge during this time, producing snow in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. While these clipper systems are not currently expected to impact the Aberdeen forecast area, it will be worth keeping and eye on the overall pattern and the tracks of these systems, as a slight shift to the southwest would be enough for some flurries or some minor snowfall to clip northeastern South Dakota and/or west central Minnesota. Ensemble cluster analysis shows a signal for the breakdown of this pattern by mid-week next week, which will support zonal flow aloft and a potential for a slight decrease in temperatures to near-normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The main aviation concern today has been a bank of fog progressing southwest across the forecast area this morning. Observations have indicated that visibility has consistently dropped to LIFR to VLIFR levels at times, as low as 1/4 mile. The fog bank has remained fairly progressive, and in most locations visibility improves after around 15-30 minutes. The fog is expected to continue to move southwest over the next couple of hours before dissipating later this afternoon. Behind the fog, a stratus deck will linger, mainly over central South Dakota. While visibility will have improved, intermittent MVFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.