textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog, possibly dense, is forecast to develop tonight, mainly east of the Missouri River valley, over into west central Minnesota, and maintain into Saturday morning before eventually dissipating.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday are forecast to warm up some 10 to 20 degrees above normal for early November, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming a mix of sun and clouds. Fog has burned off/lifted over much of the forecast area, with just a few pockets of light fog continuing across the Missouri River valley region. Temperatures have been trying to warm through the 30s into the low 40s on southerly winds 5 to 15 mph.

Current satellite trends suggest all of the low clouds and fog will be gone by sundown, allowing for a reset of the boundary layer for later tonight. Mainly will be just dealing with some sct-bkn mid/high clouds for the first few hours of the tonight period forecast. Short term guidance brings the fog back again tonight, mainly east river, including the development of fog over into west central Minnesota prior to sunrise Saturday morning. Southwesterly low level winds (0.5km) tonight do support a bit of a downslope wind scenario in the lee of the Prairie Coteau, so expecting to see a hole in the fog/low clouds (from subsidence) there in the lee of the Coteau, surrounded by fog/low clouds. REFS probabilities for visby down to or less than 0.5mi is in that 50-70 percent range over a good chunk of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota by sunrise on Saturday.

No other notable changes showing up in the 7-day forecast. Still looks dry through next Thursday. Still looks like a warm up this weekend into Wednesday of next week. The next strong cold frontal passage may be lining up for Wednesday or Wednesday night of next week. Fire Weather-wise, breezy west-northwest winds across the northern tier counties on Saturday, coupled with afternoon humidity values dropping to around 40-45 percent is expected to bump Grassland Fire Danger indexes up to moderate to high, particularly over north central South Dakota.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Conditions are improving throughout the region. Fog is burning off, and low clouds are being eroded away by daytime mixing/heating. Conditions at all four terminals is still MVFR/IFR in fog and low clouds, but within the next 1-3 hours, expect VFR conditions to return to all four terminals.

Guidance says sub-VFR visby in fog and/or low clouds will return later tonight, with KMBG holding lowest probability of this occurring, while KPIR, KABR and KATY maintain much higher probabilities for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog. By the end of the TAF valid period on Saturday, conditions should be once again improving toward VFR. Going ahead and placing lower visibility in fog and low stratus in as prevailing conditions overnight/Saturday morning given the amount of confidence in this happening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.