textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be some scattered rain showers through the rest of the afternoon over portions of northeastern SD.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (sustained winds of greater than 30 mph and/or gusts of 45 mph or more) is between 40-60% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is Slight (2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather Saturday. Confidence is low on storm development due to very warm temperatures above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards will be possible, and it will be in the evening to overnight hours.

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather Sunday along the ND/SD border. Again, confidence is low for storm development during the day, but once we move into the evening and overnight hours, severe storms will be possible. Main hazards are large hail and isolated wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week. Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the 60s. This will push heat index values into the mid to upper 90s, possibly past 100 degrees with increased risk for heat related illnesses.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

As of about 12:15 PM CDT, we still have some very light showers lingering over northeastern SD. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with winds out of the southeast at 15-20 mph gusts of 25-35 mph west of the James River and closer to 10-15 mph gusts of 20-25 mph. Highs today will reach the upper 70s around and east of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills, and low 80s elsewhere.

There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms over far north central SD and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for areas along and west of a line Fergus Falls, MN to Sisseton to Henry to about De Smet. While confidence still remains low on storm development during the day, storms later in the evening Saturday into early Sunday morning will be possible as temperatures above the surface cool and storms are able to break the cap. Quite a few of the AI models are showing increased probability of severe weather. Most of the CAMs, if they have storms, show them over central SD in and around the slight risk. The RAP has some storms into the James Valley but this seems a bit overdone. With the storms that get going, all hazards will be possible. There is a 5% tor area along and west of a line from east of Eureka south to Fort Thompson. Hail and wind cover approximately the same area as the marginal risk with increased probability of hail west of Gettysburg and Fort Thompson. Expect wind gusts of 60+ mph, and hail up to 2" in diameter with a couple tornadoes possible Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Sunday has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms as well. This is mainly along the ND/SD border and again, during the day we are going to be fairly well caped but storms could break through later in the evening into the overnight hours.

Still looking at warm temperatures and more humidity for the end of the weekend into next work week. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s This will put heat index values in the upper 90s to over 100 degrees especially over eastern SD. HeatRisk is in the moderate to major categories for the most part with a couple areas in the extreme category for Friday. For areas in moderate to major, those without access to cooling and hydration will be affected. In the areas in the extreme category (far eastern SD) this will affect anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems, industries, and infrastructure.

Winds Saturday from the NBM have a 40-60% chance of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45 mph) west of the James Valley. Other ensembles aren't as excited about these stronger winds. Along with the low pressure moving into the area, the winds, and storm potential on Saturday, there also looks to be an area of elevated smoke rotating into the area from the southwest. This will result in some milky skies but shouldn't affect the surface at all.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR ceilings continue at KPIR and KMBG cor a couple more hours before becoming VFR overnight. Winds will also pick up in a couple hours for these sites and not diminish overnight. MVFR ceilings move in for all sites towards the end of the period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.