textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures today/tonight with highs in the single digits and teens, lows in the single digits below and teens below zero. Wind chill values from 15 below to 25 below zero east of the Missouri River.

- Downslope winds expected in the Coteau region on Thursday, with gusts potentially over 40 mph. This may create areas of blowing/drifting snow.

- Snow chances (20-40%) return Friday/Saturday and early next week as more weather systems have the potential to move through the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Getting some flurries/very light snow across the eastern CWA early this morning under the stratus deck moving south over the area. Had earlier inserted this into the forecast through the early morning hours. Also seeing another wave moving southeast across western SD, with snow occurring there as well. This may affect the far southwest CWA through the early morning hours. There is some progress to the southward movement of the clearing line as it advances across ND, a bit more pronounced over eastern ND to where the eastern CWA may start to see a clearing trend after sunrise. Still a lot of 25-35 mph gusts on the back side of the passing cold front which is well to our south now. Expecting some residual drifting snow/patchy blowing snow (where snow has not crusted over) across the Coteau region through the early morning hours. Although, as the cold surface high builds in today, expecting winds to go lighter by afternoon and will put an end to any of that. With the cold air advection and 925mb temps dropping to between -15C and -18C, looking for temperatures today stuck in the single digits and teens. There are some indications in hi-res data (cloud cover/reflectivity/PoPs) of possible streamers off Lake Oahe with the colder arctic air overspreading the region. Did add some low PoPs for this in the Pierre region.

Surface high moves off to the southeast tonight and we quickly go into a warm air advection pattern with developing south/southwest winds, more so between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. Before then though, still expecting a period of light winds and mostly clear skies over a good portion of the CWA, and temps should fall quickly into the single digits below and teens below zero for many areas east of the Missouri River. Continued the trend of going colder than NBM values for tonight's lows. Wind chill values continue to range from 15 below to 25 below zero for much of the northern/eastern CWA.

Warm front moves back into the area on Thursday, with strong warm air advection as 925mb temps rise back around 0C to +2C across the area by 00Z Friday. Winds turn westerly and should see surface temps rebound nicely into the 20s and 30s, with warmest readings over central SD. Will also be watching potential for downslope winds during the day Thursday as southwest 925mb winds from 30 to 40 knots develop. Used hi-res wind guidance for Thursday as NBM is likely too low in the Coteau/downslope region. HREF mean wind gusts show 40-45 mph across the downslope area and went close to this in the grids/forecast. This did introduce patchy blowing snow to parts of the eastern CWA on Thursday, but recent mild temps and light rain followed by a quick freeze may have allowed for some of the snow pack to be crusted over. Although, feel blowing snow output was well represented where the least crusting has occurred over the far eastern CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

As the period begins Thursday night into Friday, broad northwest flow aloft will continue to be the dominant upper flow feature across the region. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates a weak shortwave will be working through the region. A clipper type low pressure system will be tracking southeast from south central Canada into the western Great Lakes. An associated warm front treks west to east through the Dakotas into Minnesota. There won't be much if any moisture associated with this wave so would only anticipate flurries or brief snow showers late Thursday into early Friday. Mainly dry conditions expected the latter half of Friday through the overnight into early Saturday. The forecast area looks to remain under the influence of a relatively mild air mass on Friday before the cold front associated with the aforementioned clipper type low, tracks north to south and sends another shot of colder air into the region.

The next upper wave is then progged to push across the region the first half the upcoming weekend. This wave has the potential to be a bit more organized and stronger than the first mentioned above. This wave will generate another clipper type low that is progged to track northwest to southeast from the Northern High Plains into the Northern Plains. The exact track of it remains in question and guidance doesn't have the best handle on that at this point. The eventual outcome of this will play a part in who may or may not get precipitation or to put it another way, who will see more snow versus others. Nonetheless, a swath of snowfall is expected somewhere across the Dakotas Saturday into Saturday night. Another arctic front will pass through the region in the wake of this wave and set off another round of CAA and colder temperatures to round out the weekend into early next week. The broad northwest flow aloft will continue to persist through the first half of next week. There's nothing to suggest that we won't see continued periodic upper waves to move through the region and deliver more bouts of on/off precipitation and an up and down fluctuating temperature pattern between air masses that originate in the Arctic or the Pacific.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will continue to affect the region during the first part of the TAF period. Areas of -SN/-SHSN will also affect KABR/KATY early this morning, with VSBY perhaps down to 5-6SM. Northerly surface winds will becoming VRB this evening, before switching to a southerly direction overnight into Thursday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.