textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost development expected this morning and Monday morning with localized freezing temperatures possible. A Frost Advisory is in effect this morning across portions of north central to northeastern SD into west central MN.

- Fire weather concerns return for much of the work week due to dry and warmer weather and periods of stronger winds, particularly Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations gusting to around 50 mph are forecast Tuesday and Thursday. Gusts up to 40 mph are expected Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of central and northeast SD from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday.

- High temperatures Monday through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s, highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 30s to mid 40s with light winds out of the north. A Frost Advisory remains in place across most of central, north central, and northeast SD into west central MN from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT. There is some potential for a couple areas to dip below freezing, but not expecting it to last long enough to issue a freeze warning.

The main concern for this week will be elevated grassland fire danger concerns. Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday all look to be quite windy - especially Tuesday - and with dry air still in place across the region, RH values will fall rapidly during the day. Fuels are slow to green up with our lack of wetting precipitation and all of these factors combine to make favorable conditions for rapidly spreading, difficult to control fires. Winds on Monday ahead of a cold front are expected to gust 30 to 40 mph. This is expected to start Monday afternoon between the MO and James Rivers and then move east with the cold front. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday. Tuesday, CAA behind the cold front will help mix down some even stronger gusts of 40-50 mph. The strongest of these winds are expected over higher elevation areas of the Leola Hills of north central SD and the Prairie Coteau of northeast SD. Thursday, another cold front moves across the area with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. It is quite possible that current RH value forecasts are too high, as we have been outperforming in recent days. Will keep an eye on this over the next several days.

In other news, temperatures will be trending up through the rest of the weekend and remain 10-15 degrees above average through the work week and into next weekend. This will also add to fire weather concerns. The next chance for wetting rain looks to be this coming weekend. A low moves towards the region Saturday and chances start to increase Saturday night, lasting into Sunday. Obviously, with this being 7 days out, lots of things can change. Will continue to keep an eye on this as we get closer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for SDZ005>008-010- 011-017>023. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048- 051. MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046.