textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing dense fog and freezing fog may improve some through early this evening, before returning overnight and creating another round of visibility at or below a quarter mile. A dense fog advisory is in place. Freezing fog overnight could cause slippery, icy roads.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota).

- Strong northwest winds and bitterly cold temperatures are expected Saturday evening through Sunday. Sustained winds in excess of 30 mph and gusts in excess of 45 mph are a concern.

- High temperatures to start 2026 off may not get above 0F degrees for some parts of South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

At 2 PM CST, under a cloudy sky and areas of fog, temperatures have been warming into the 30s and 40s, with readings into the 50s and low 60s across south central South Dakota. Areas of fog, some of it dense, have been slow to burn off today, with much of the area covered by the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory still showing rather poor visibility, per regional webcams. Winds are generally out of the south around 10 to 15 mph. Over northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota, south winds were a bit stronger around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

A warm front over the CWA is still working its way northeast, so despite the broken/overcast skies, expecting surface temperatures to continue to slowly warm into early this evening. A cold front will pass through the region overnight, turning these southerly winds around to the north-northwest and bringing in a little bit of low level CAA (probably shallow enough, but strong enough to act as a low level thermal inversion re-inforcer). This will end up enhancing more fog/stratus potential later tonight. There is also a shortwave moving up into the region, that will produce a low probability (less than 30 percent) chance of very light rain/sprinkles from late this afternoon through late this evening (can already see a pocket of rain returns on radar throughout Stanley/Jones Counties).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

While the flow pattern aloft will be taking on a negative PNA pattern (upper trof over the western CONUS/upper ridge over the east) heading into this weekend, low level WAA persists long enough to make Saturday one last warm day. As this upper trof works east across the CONUS over the weekend, it will drag a strong cold front through the CWA starting Saturday late afternoon/early evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. Various models and their ensembles are still pointing to over 20 degrees Celsius of cooling happening at 925hpa between 00Z Sunday and 18Z Sunday. Pretty strong low level CAA. There is also a another pretty strong pressure rise bubble headed this way Saturday night. Suspect this will probably be the next potential round of strong northwest winds (Saturday evening through Sunday) in excess of 30 mph sustained and gusts in excess of 45 mph. The rest of the 7-day forecast is a return to a positive PNA upper flow pattern, with low level WAA and CAA patterns taking turns over this CWA. By New Year's Day 2026, there is a low probability (15-25%) taking shape for a cold surge coming down into this region to glance the eastern half to two-thirds of this CWA with arctic air cold enough to make high temperatures struggle to reach the single digits above zero!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Guidance continues to insist that IFR fog and stratus is going to go away across all four terminals by 00Z. Tried to honor that, in as much as possible. But, given the current set-up and the mid/high clouds streaming overhead, not all that confident this will happen. Guidance then has all four terminals dropping back down below VFR by 09Z tonight, persisting through the day on Friday. Threw in a PROB30 for KPIR and KATY for some very light rain mainly this evening, as a low pressure system moves over the region.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ Friday for SDZ003>011-019>023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.