textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning over central SD and portions of northeast SD. Visibility down to around one-quarter mile at times.

- A couple of weak waves passing through the region could bring brief bouts of light precipitation to our area on Friday and Friday night.

- Temperatures Sunday and for much of next week will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with mainly dry conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Stratus continues across the entire CWA this morning and don't see this going anywhere through much of the day. There may be a few breaks over the eastern CWA as a few models indicate, but it appears stratus will hold on strong until perhaps Saturday when central SD looks to begin breaking out. Latest scan of web cams/obs continue to indicate areas of fog (dense at times) across central SD and also in the spine of the Coteau aided by weak upslope flow. Will maintain headlines for fog across central SD and over a portion of northeast SD through the morning hours and will monitor for any changes to areal coverage.

Rest of the short term is fairly quiet. Surface high pressure sprawled out from ND southeast into MN will keep winds fairly light over the region. Will be watching two systems glancing the CWA, with limited to no impacts over us. First system may bring some light mixed precip over southern SD, but looks to largely miss the CWA aside from perhaps southern Lyman county. Another weak wave may also bring some light snow to far northeast SD and west central MN tonight. Little to no accumulation expected with this very minor wave.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Overall the pattern in the extended transitions out of a northwest flow regime to a split flow pattern by the end of the extended. In the interim there will be an upper ridge moving overhead for late in the weekend and start of next week.

A weak shortwave traverses under the broader ridge Sunday. Overall there is a general warm advection trend during that time, with 850mb temperatures increasing to a standard deviation above climo. There will be a little bit of a surface gradient on Sunday morning, with a departing 1025mb high pressure system increasing low level southeasterlies. The weak surface low associated with the wave Sunday moves across the area, with a tight temperature gradient around it. Unfortunately, with weak low level flow on the backside and stable southeasterlies ahead of it, the warmer air aloft may only make limited inroads down to the surface as BUFKIT profiles suggest a near-saturated near surface inversion remains in place. With light winds and nothing to kick out the low level moisture we may be stuck in the fog/stratus. This is in addition to all the high/mid clouds associated with the shortwave. NBM 25th-75th percentiles are still indicating a broad spread and high uncertainty (6 to 9 degrees) for highs Sunday.

Additionally, with the surface low and inversion, there may a short window in which we see Sisseton hills downslope. This would be just as the low moves into the James valley, with southeasterlies shifting to south southwesterlies. NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate 60kts in that critical layer around 2kft. As the low continues to proceed east, the flow shifts to west northwesterlies and the downslope potential drops. We're talking about a window of only about 3 hours, and as such, NBM in its array of ensembles is probably smoothing these winds out given the time range. Will be able to provide greater detail on timing/intensity once CAMS start to extend out that far. Snow cover age and consistency is also in question as we've seen mostly light snowfall events and temperatures remained cold enough that there has only been slight modification, meaning there may be some patchy blowing snow but as of yet not with a high enough degree of certainty to include such mention in the forecast.

What follows is split flow and a baggy trough. There are a couple of weak systems, but again there is little run to run continuity or continuity between the three main deterministic models. A little more confident in just the fact that we will see above normal temperatures. How warm is still a bit uncertain as the spread in the NBM 25th-75th remains high, although lower in comparison to 24 hours ago, down to around 5 to 8 degrees. With this pattern moving forward, and few intrusions of arctic air to help shunt moisture out of the region, we may likewise be stuck with more rounds of fog and stratus.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will affect the region through the TAF period. Areas of FG/BR are also expected, with MVFR/IFR VSBY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for SDZ003- 008>010-015>017-021-023-033>037-045-048.

MN...None.