textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The chance for precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday has lowered to 15-25% as models have trended the precipitation to the south. Confidence on precipitation type is low.

- Temperatures will be fairly warm through the week and weekend, being 10-20 degrees warmer than normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

As of 06z, a few lines of light sprinkles that were over central and northeastern SD have moved out of the area. High surface pressure will be moving in through the remainder of the night and through the day today. With this high pressure, precipitation will stay out of central and northeastern SD through the day into Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than they have been over the past few days, but they will still be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal today.

During the day Wednesday, low surface pressure moves into WY and slowly starts to move east towards SD. Wednesday night this low pressure is forecast to move into southwestern SD and northeastern NE. Over the past few model runs, the models have slowly shifted this low and its precipitation south, with the low currently forecast to travel east along the border of SD and NE. Early Thursday morning, the models show the low interacting with moisture aloft developing precipitation over mainly southeastern SD. Because of this shift, most of the precipitation is currently forecast to miss a majority of central and northeastern SD.

Other than the models shifting precipitation chances to the south, the models are also varying what type of precipitation could be occurring if there is any reaching the ground. Some models have WAA aloft and slightly warmer temperatures at the surface leading to rain for most of the precipitation. Other models show the warm air cooling below freezing before the moisture moves in, causing snow to fall. Then other models show rain changing to a rain/snow mix before transitioning to snow then rain again as temperatures warm through the day Thursday. The variability in the models leads to lower confidence in precipitation type and timing over central and northeastern SD, but if the models' southward trend comes to fruition, then it might not matter as much because precipitation will not be in the area. Either way, this will need to be watched in upcoming model runs. QPF amounts look light right now with this precipitation, and might lead to no precipitation accumulations or a light dusting, sprinkle, or glaze to accumulate. If this does occur, then it could lead to some slick surfaces during the Thursday morning commute.

After the low pressure moves out of the state, some higher pressure and drier air aloft move in. This helps to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD through the weekend. Other than some stronger temperature advection around the low pressure Wednesday night into Thursday, temperatures will remain rather consistent through the week and weekend, being 15-20 degrees warmer than normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions to continue over MBG/PIR. MVFR ceilings across eastern ND and the northern half of MN are expected to push into ATY overnight through around 15Z Tuesday (and clip ABR briefly 08-12Z). Winds out of the northwest will diminish late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours at MBG/PIR, and shift out of the south. This transition will be occur closer to 06Z Wednesday over eastern SD/ATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.