textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak system today brings two rounds of small chances (20-50%) for mixed precipitation. Light freezing rain possible north of Hwy 12 this morning then again along and north of Hwy 212 this evening, although minimal impacts expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 1023 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Continuing to watch the weak system sliding eastward across the Dakotas. Most precipitation has been occurring across ND, as expected, but watching light echoes moving eastward across northern SD as well. Did increase PoPs slightly over the northern CWA, while also extending them southward a bit further. Still only have chances from 20-50% (highest along ND/SD border) during the daytime hours. Light freezing rain possible as well, although expecting any impacts to be rather minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the precip forecast today and tonight. Latest model runs and soundings support two rounds of light mixed precip dominated by freezing rain from Hwy 12 north. First round is already stretching into northwest SD as a lee side front sets up along the Rockies off a low sitting in southern Saskatchewan. The low slides east through this evening. Temperatures across northern SD and into eastern SD will remain below freezing today, but southerly winds gusting 20 to 35 mph will usher in above 0C temps just off the surface. Confidence is pretty high in northern counties seeing some freezing rain. However, ice accumulations range from nothing to a couple hundredths. At the moment, highest chances for a glaze of ice occur with the second round of precip this evening across far northeast SD into west central MN. Forgoing any advisory at this time because of the lack of confidence in any impact.

The associated front exits the region late tonight leaving the forecast area dry but breezy for Saturday with west to northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. The winds and lack of snow cover south of Hwy 14 will result in high grassland fire danger both today and Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday night with return flow setting up on Sunday.

Even with sfc highs and low cycling through SD through next week, ensembles keep us dry. Next hint for any precip after tonight doesn't come around until Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Added a prob30 group for some transient freezing rain near KABR this evening. Most should stay east and north, however.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.