textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will gradually warm during the next couple days. Daytime highs will increase from the from the 50s to low 60s today to the 60s to mid-70s on Wednesday. Temperatures return closer to seasonal for the end of the work week.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front. Gusts are expected to peak at 30 to 45 miles per hour. The strong winds will also cause elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Monitoring a front dropping into the forecast area this morning, which will slowly pass through the area through this afternoon. Not expecting strong cold air advection behind this front, and 850mb temperatures will actually increase this afternoon as the upper- level ridge over the western CONUS progresses eastward. Therefore, the warming trend continues today, with highs in the 50s to low 60s expected. The forecast area will continue warming Wednesday with the continued progression of the ridge and associated height rises. Highs in the 70s across the board that day will be well above average, but are still about 5-10 degrees shy of daily record highs.

The upper-level ridge in place will collapse into zonal flow Wednesday and Thursday, with a strong upper-level jet streak expected to set up over the area. As a result, there will be chances for precipitation development along a cold front that passes through Wednesday night into Thursday. Model soundings indicate rain is the most likely precipitation type, but with overnight lows near freezing along the North Dakota/South Dakota border, freezing rain and even snow can't be ruled out as a possible precipitation type just yet. Overall liquid equivalent precip totals still appear minimal, with the latest ensemble means giving up to a tenth of an inch at most. The means are fairly high-biased however, and the probability for seeing a hundredth of an inch or more is set up in a gradient across the Aberdeen CWA, ranging from 50% in the north to 10% over central South Dakota. This signature is fairly consistent with previous forecast cycles.

The main forecast concern will be the post-frontal winds and wind gusts moving into the area Thursday. Northerly winds will provide multiple rounds of strong cold air advection into the region coming early Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon. As a result, temperatures Thursday are expected to be non-diurnal and will drop to near-normal for late March. Under northerly cold air advection regimes, the NBM has a tendency to under-forecast wind speeds, so hedging a bit further toward the 90th percentile with this latest forecast. Probability to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts of 45 miles per hour) remains at about 10-20 percent across the board, but again those numbers are likely underdone and a Wind Advisory may be necessary for this event. At the moment it looks like the area will fall short of High Wind Warning criteria (58 miles per hour), with probabilities currently sitting at 0%. Still, with such strong cold air advection nothing can be quite ruled out at this point, and trends will continue to be monitored closely moving forward. No headlines have been issued with this forecast package. These winds will also trigger some elevated fire weather concerns, mainly over central South Dakota where the Grassland Fire Danger Index reaches the Very High category. The saving grace will be that afternoon humidity remains in the 35 to 45 percent range, keeping the area out of Red Flag Warning criteria.

Zonal flow aloft will transition to an upper-level ridge once again residing over the western CONUS. This will allow for a warm, dry airmass to return to the Northern Plains, bringing above normal temperatures and minimal chances for precip through the weekend. Expect highs roughly 10-15 degrees above normal through Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday night. A cold front continues slow southeastward progression through the forecast area (now through the KMBG/KPIR and KABR terminals). Light southerly winds will continue to switch around to a northeast direction today, eventually becoming east as the boundary stalls out/washes out at/near the KATY terminal over northeast South Dakota draped back into south central South Dakota. By early this evening, return flow south-southeast winds develop and persist through Tuesday night.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.