textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures well above normal will continue today and Monday. Much of the area will flirt with record high temperatures today.

- Warm temperatures, low dew points, and strong wind gusts will all combine to create elevated fire weather concerns today, particularly over south central South Dakota. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM CST through 6 PM CST today for Jones, Lyman and Buffalo counties.

- Precipitation chances (60-80%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Well above normal temperatures continue today (and to a lesser extent Monday) due to a broad upper-level ridge in place. Near record temperatures are anticipated today, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s expected. Southerly winds will advect dry air into the region, keeping dew points in the low 20s to potentially even upper teens over south central South Dakota. With afternoon wind gusts peaking around 25 miles per hour for a few hours, confidence has increased in Red Flag conditions. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Jones, Lyman, and Buffalo counties. Elsewhere, humidity will be a bit higher and winds a bit lower, keeping those areas below criteria.

Upper-level ridge will progress eastward beginning Monday, giving way to an upper-level trough that will develop a low pressure center into the Northern Plains. QPF amounts Tuesday through Wednesday have held mostly steady (perhaps a slight drop) over the past 24 hours, with ensemble medians ranging from a quarter to half an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation. However, increasing confidence in temperatures remaining above freezing overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning has delayed the transition from rain to snow until the passage of the cold front Wednesday morning, after the majority of the precipitation will have fallen. This of course significantly limits the amount of snow that will fall, with the expectation now being that northeastern South Dakota may see a couple of inches of accumulation at the most. The caveat to the reduced totals is that afternoon winds will be upwards of 30 knots, which when combined with falling snow will likely cause visibility reductions, potentially significant at times.

Another round of precipitation is expected to move in on Thursday due to a shortwave aloft. This time, all snow is anticipated, centered over central South Dakota. At this point just a couple of inches at the most expected, but afternoon wind gusts around 30 knots will once again be the greatest concern, reducing visibilities when combined with falling snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through early Monday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ045-048-051.

MN...None.