textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will continue through this week with temperatures and heat index values warming into the triple digits each afternoon.

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and a Heat Advisory for parts of central and northeast SD and west central MN continue through Thursday.

- The combination of humidity dropping near or below 20%, wind gusts of 20-35 mph, and dry fuels will lead to elevated fire danger concerns across portions of north central SD this afternoon. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Corson and Dewey counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The main story today remains the persistent, dangerous heat across the region. The upper ridge does not appear to weaken or budge until Thursday at the earliest. A weak cold front is now slated for Friday/Friday night on the global models. Timing has been inconsistent with this sfc feature, though there is higher confidence in some movement of the sfc high/upper ridge by Sunday.

Winds will be the mitigating factor for heat indices through the work week. Breezy southwest winds will usher in drier, hotter air. The lower dewpoints across central SD will result in lower min RH through Wednesday. The winds will also help quickly dry out fuels as the lower dewpoints spread east toward the James Valley through mid week. While only Corson and Dewey counties are in the Red Flag Warning this afternoon, when winds increase to 25 to 35 mph gusts on Wednesday, more counties may merit consideration for fire headlines around the Missouri.

No changes planned to the current headlines at this time. Blended in some ConsShort to limit GFS dry/hot bias on temperatures today and Tuesday. No change in messaging planned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-033>037-045-048-051. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ003-015. MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.