textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain well above normal Monday into Tuesday with some locales having the potential to set new record warm lows on Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances (50-70%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1006 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Allowed the red flag warning to expire earlier this evening as winds and temperatures quickly fell after sunset.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Early afternoon temperatures have warmed into the 50s and 60s across the forecast area. Southwest winds have become gusty around 25-30 mph across south-central and central SD. Relative humidity values in those areas are falling to between 15-20 percent in some areas, so the current Red Flag Warning across south central SD will remain in place until early this evening. These conditions will improve once temperatures start to cool and winds diminish early this evening.

The overall upper flow pattern will continue to feature zonal, if not s/w ridging aloft across the Northern Plains tonight through early Tuesday. This will continue our streak of days of mild and dry condition with well above normal temperatures for mid February. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday compared to the values we've seen this weekend. Some locales may be close to setting new record warm lows overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning with readings in the low to mid 30s anticipated. By the start of Tuesday an upper trough is progged to push into the Great Basin and Intermountain West. This will bring changes to our weather as this disturbance is forecast to lift northeast into the Northern Plains and become negatively tilted the latter half of Tuesday into Wednesday. Model soundings on Tuesday indicate a bout of light precip in the form of drizzle or light rain showers will be possible initially before more widespread showers fill in going through the latter half of the day into Tuesday night. Temperatures will be warm enough for just rain through this period. That could even last into the first part of Wednesday, although cooler air will filter into the system by then that we should see a transition to a rain/snow mix and perhaps some of our northern/northwestern zones will see a period of snow showers as colder temps are expected there. Guidance continues to hold onto the warmer air mass longer which has curtailed NBM snowfall probabilities a bit to where as now only our far north/northeast zones only have a 20-30 percent chance of seeing at least 2 inches of accumulation from late Tue through late Wed.

After that system departs, a narrow window of dry conditions are expected by the end of Wednesday into early Thursday. Another upper wave is progged to push into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Thursday into Friday. This will provide our area with another chance for precipitation. By then, temperatures will have continued to cool, so much so that we'll see below normal readings. Snow should be the dominant p-type with this disturbance. Various model solutions differ on timing, location and strength of this system on Thursday, so confidence on snowfall potential and the locations of it remain low. Temperatures for the remainder of the period stay below normal with highs during the day only in the teens and 20s and lows at night in the single digits above zero.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Monday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.