textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures will be around to slightly above average today, cooling to slightly below average on Friday. Temperatures will steadily warm back up through the weekend before cooling back down early next week.

- There are a few windows of opportunity for night-time showers and thunderstorms later this week, primarily this evening through Friday morning and again late Friday night into Saturday afternoon over portions of south central and northeastern SD through western MN. Right now, the best chance for widespread rainfall (30-60% chance) is lining up for Sunday evening through Monday morning.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms this evening over the southern half of Jones and Lyman Counties. The main threats will be 1 inch in diameter hail and wind gusts of 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

There will be south southwesterly winds at the surface through the day today. This morning these winds will help to create some downsloping winds along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau, along I-29. The downsloping winds will be gusty at time, with gusts up to 30 mph possible through the morning into the afternoon as well as overnight into Friday morning. The southerly winds will also help to bring warmer temperatures in today. Highs will be in the low 80s to upper 90s, warmest in areas west of the Missouri River. North central SD will also see drier conditions today, with relative humidity values below 20% in areas. Afternoon winds will be gusting below 20 mph, which helps to reduce fire weather concerns slightly, though there is still High Grassland Fire Danger Index values over Corson county from the dry conditions. The southerly winds will also be pushing the near surface smoke out this morning, though there will continue to be smoke aloft today that will cause some hazy skies at times.

The upper-levels of the atmosphere have northwest flow over SD through the weekend and into next week. Occasionally, the models hint at a shortwave moving along that flow over SD, which would help to support surface boundaries moving over the state and potentially shower and storm development. One of these shortwaves is forecast to move over central and northeastern SD at some point late this afternoon into tonight. The warm temperatures will help to provide some instability today in front of the surface trough that will provide lift for storm development. Additionally, the development of a low level jet during the evening and overnight will help to support storms or develop storms over south central and northeastern SD. The big question is, will there be enough moisture for shower and storm development. Some models have a sliver of moisture moving into central and northeastern SD along the southerly winds in front of the boundary, while other models do not. The models that have the moisture have storms developing at some point during the late afternoon into early Friday morning. There are low confidence for anything to develop because of the lack of moisture, but if there is enough moisture, something could always pop up. In fact, there is a sliver of a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) that IF any storms do develop over portions of south central SD, then they could become severe. The lapse rates and shear over that area suggest that storms could have hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

Multiple upper-level shortwave and surface boundaries are forecast to move over SD into and through the weekend. These continue bringing a small chance for showers and storms to develop, such as at some point between Friday night into Saturday afternoon. However, it always comes back to if there will be enough moisture to support the development of anything. This causes low confidence and lower chances for showers and storms. The next big chance for showers and storms will be Sunday evening into Monday morning, with 30-60% chance. There is still a bit of variation in the models as to the location and timing of these showers and storms, as some models have the storms developing to the east of the area and some develop storms over SD. This will need to be watched a bit more in upcoming model runs to get more details on what will be happening.

Temperatures will be cooling slightly Friday, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s, before warming up again during the weekend with highs in the 80s to 90s. The northerly winds Friday will help to push higher concentrations of wildfire smoke in over SD. Though with very little mixing occurring, that smoke will be staying aloft and create more widespread hazy skies.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) conditions are possible across the region up through sunrise and shortly after. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. There's just a very small chance (~10%) for a -TSRA near KATY 00Z-06Z tonight. Although, confidence is so low that will not mention in TAF at this time.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.