textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will persist through the end of the week with temperatures and heat index values topping out in the 90s to low 100s each afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for north central, central, and portions of northeastern SD and west central MN through Thursday evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across West River zones this afternoon as gusty winds of 25-30 mph develop and minimum relative humidity values fall to between 20-25 percent.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A persistent upper ridge will continue to hold sway over our hot and dry weather pattern for the next few days. Mid level heights won't change much through the end of the work week keeping the main storm track west, north and east of our region. Temperatures, humidity values and resultant heat indices will remain pretty much where they've been this week with temperatures in the 90s to low 100s. Therefore, the heat advisory headline will remain in place through Thursday evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of our West River zones mainly due to gusty southerly winds. Based on current temperature and dew point temperature projections, we will fall short of RH criteria for a Red Flag Warning. Nevertheless, High Grassland Fire Danger will still exist across Corson and Dewey Counties today.

Short term guidance shows hints of a weak s/w mid level trough crashing over the top of the ridge across ND by late Thursday into Friday. A sfc low and frontal boundary associated with this feature is progged to track southeast through the forecast area on Friday. This will act as a wind shift line taking away our persistent southerly low level flow and return a northerly component to that flow. Any moisture associated with these features are expected to remain north of this CWA in parts of ND where the better forcing is expected to line up. Sfc high pressure builds southeast across the eastern Dakotas into MN on Friday into Saturday. Any mid level height decreases that take place Friday will be increasing again by Sunday as s/w ridging builds back into the area. This will help boost temps back up into triple digit territory across central SD to round out the weekend. Looking into next week, a stronger mid level s/w trough is expected to suppress the upper ridge to our south and west Sunday into Monday. An associated sfc frontal boundary is progged to slide through the forecast area by late Sunday into Monday which may provide parts of our area with the next chance of precipitation. NBM remains conservative with 20 PoPs Sunday into Sunday night with very limited if no QPF. Temperatures are expected to return back closer to normal during the early portion of next week as northwesterly flow aloft returns.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts this afternoon over KMBG/KPIR, diminishing this evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ003>011-015>018-021-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.