textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The probability of exceeding 6 inches of snowfall this weekend has increased to 70 to 90% across the forecast area. Winds of 30 to 45 mph will lead to blowing/drifting snow and blizzard like conditions mainly east of HWY 83.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some 15 to 25 degrees below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. Will also let the High Wind Warning expire at 12Z for the eastern CWA as winds have decreased below criteria.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

As of 08z, the stronger winds are slowly dying back over central SD and should start decreasing over northeastern SD as a clipper low moves east. Though it will be about mid-morning before winds around and above 35mph to move east of the Prairie Coteau and out of the area. A high surface pressure is moving over SD through the morning, and will help to calm the winds and keep precipitation chances low. Cold air has been moving into central and northeastern SD with these strong winds, and will cause temperatures today to be slightly colder than yesterday, with highs in the 30s. As temperatures decrease, RH values are recovering, which will help to reduce the fire weather risks. Additionally, the decreasing winds are also helping to reduce the risk.

The high pressure moves out of the area this afternoon and evening and models are forecasting a line of precipitation to move into central SD during the late afternoon and spread into northeastern SD overnight on the northern side of the developing Colorado low. This precipitation looks to be mainly snow and could cause snowfall accumulations of a light dusting along the edges up to 3 inches in north central SD by Saturday afternoon. The Colorado low continues to develops and starts to move east Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon, which is when the bulk of the snow is forecast to fall. The is still some uncertainty in the location and amounts of the highest snowfall. The models have shifted the track of the low pressure to the north, which has caused an increase in snow amounts in the models and shifted them slightly. There is a 70-90% chance for 6 plus inches of snowfall accumulation in the James River valley and eastward, with the highest amounts and chances over the Sisseton hills and to the east, with a 50-70% chance for 10 plus inches. There is still a fairly large spread of snowfall totals in the models leading to some uncertainty, with 5-8 inch difference in ensemble 25th to 75th percentile snow total amounts across northeastern SD.

Saturday afternoon and evening, as the bulk of the snow starts falling, cold air also begins to move into the area. The cold air advection will help stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. There is a 30-40% chance for winds to gust above 35 mph Saturday afternoon which increases overnight into Sunday morning to be 50-80% chance mainly east of the Missouri River. These strong winds will likely combine with the falling snow and could create blizzard like conditions east of HWY 83 and especially over and along the Prairie Coteau. Travel could become hazardous Saturday night into Sunday due to blowing snow causing reduced visibilities and with the copious amounts of snow forecast to accumulate.

This push of cold air will also cool temperatures Sunday and Monday 15-25 degrees colder than normal, with wind chills looking to drop into the negative teens to -20. High surface pressure is forecast to move in behind Colorado low and the snow Sunday night into Monday, which will help to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD and cause winds to calm down Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Lingering MVFR CIGs will affect KATY/KABR at the start of the TAF period before trending VFR by mid morning. -SN/SN will move into the region this evening, with a return to MVFR CIGs as well.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for MNZ039-046.