textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures and a 20-40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms return to parts of the area on Friday.

- Additional chances for more rainfall will be possible this weekend into early next week. The greatest opportunity will be Saturday and Saturday night with a 30-50 percent chance across northeast SD and west central MN and a 50-80 percent chance across central SD.

- There is a Marginal Risk(1 out of 5) for severe weather Saturday and Saturday night across central portions of SD.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Mid to high level cirrus has been thickening most of the day across central SD and some of this is now shifting northeast into our eastern zones this afternoon. A field of lower level CU has developed underneath these higher decks but so far dry conditions prevail. It's theoretically possible to get a pop up shower or storm by late this afternoon as there still are a couple of CAMs that show some reflectivity returns. However, it's not very likely as BUFKIT soundings show quite a deep dry sub-cloud layer, limited moisture in the mid levels, weak instability and no deep layer shear. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s to low 90s but thicker cloud cover across central SD is contributing to the sluggish rise in afternoon readings.

Gusty southeast winds will relax across our eastern zones this evening while central SD holds onto a bit more wind tonight. Sfc high pressure will gradually retreat eastward across the western Great Lakes while lee side troughing continues to develop across the Northern High Plains. This is in response to an upper level low progged to shift northeast out of Southern California into the Great Basin tonight through Friday. A strengthening low to mid level flow will be the result across the Dakotas tonight into Friday. An upper level disturbance, currently across KS/OK will shift north into our region on Friday. This pattern will promote some higher moisture values northward into our forecast area leading to thickening cloud cover overnight into Friday. A low level jet kicks in overnight across northwest SD and perhaps far enough east into our western zones to support a couple of showers in the I-90 corridor after midnight. Showers and some sub-severe storms will become a bit more widespread across central SD Friday morning with some expansion or new development of mainly showers across parts of northeast SD by midday and afternoon. Weak instability remain in place with MLCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg and little to no deep layer shear is progged for Friday. Activity looks to be spotty with only a 20-40 percent chance for precipitation.

This will increase between Friday night through Saturday night as sfc low pressure anchored on either a frontal boundary or sfc trough shifts into the western Dakotas in response to the aforementioned upper trough shifts north out of the Great Basin/Central Rockies into the Northern Rockies/High Plains. By Saturday into Saturday night, a good chance of precipitation ranging from 50-80 percent will be possible across central SD. Chances will dwindle down to a 30-50 percent chance range across northeast SD and west central MN. Enough instability and favorable shear will be present by Saturday afternoon to kick off a round of strong to severe convection across western SD. Favorable conditions for this will also exist farther east across mainly our West River zones. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk(1 out of 5) for severe weather on Saturday and Saturday night across our western zones. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

After today's temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, cooler temperatures will return starting Friday. Mild temps remain overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s. Parts of central SD may not make it to 80 degrees on Friday if clouds remain thick enough in any rainfall. 850mb temps cool to about +13C across central SD to around +15C to +18C across our eastern zones on Friday. Lowered Max T's for Friday as a result. It remains warm but not quite as hot as it has been through the weekend into early next week with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to persist at all terminals the rest of today and through the overnight period. Southeast breezes will turn gusty at times this afternoon up to around 25 knots. Winds will subside this evening in the east but remain elevated overnight for KPIR/KMBG. Mid to high clouds will continue to thicken later today and into tonight. Low clouds down to MVFR levels will affect KPIR by mid morning Friday with the introduction of a PROB30 group for rain showers.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.