textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal will continue through the weekend. Parts of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may flirt with record highs.

- Precipitation chances (40-60%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow by Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

We were monitoring a fire southwest of Aberdeen which was indicating the smoke plume nearing the airport (was detected by satellite/NGFS about an hour and a half ago). The smoke quickly diminished by 2245Z and we have seen some low level smoke lingering from our webcam. The temperature inversion is quickly settling in, which will keep any smoke still being produced more to the surface. Winds remain light and relative humidity is starting to recovery back to 40% from the 30% low an hour ago. No significant changes are expected to the ongoing forecast, as it remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Not much change in the thinking for the forecast over the next week. Dry weather with above normal temperatures (15 to 25 degrees above) is expected through Monday. Sunday still appears to be the warmest day as ridging and westerly flow aloft help pull in warm, dry air. Adjusted dewpoints down toward the 25th percentile and temperatures up toward the 90th percentile to account for known NBM biases in these regimes.

Sunday night into Monday, a weak sfc front moves through and the ridge aloft flattens. Monday will see a nominal cool down as a result, but highs will still top out in the upper 40s to upper 50s on a north to south gradient. Still looking at a system moving into the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday along with a deep upper trough. More seasonable (read: wintry) temperatures return by Thursday. Precipitation returns with the low late Tuesday into Wednesday as some wrap around moisture moves in. Precip type will depend heavily on timing as daytime highs will support a rain or rain/snow mix while overnight lows will be below freezing and support all snow. Amounts are dependent on track of the low. For now, the worst of the system remains to the north and east of this forecast area, but northeast SD into west central MN could see up to 2 inches of snow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and light winds will continue over the next 24 hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.