textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be in the 60s, 70s, and possibly into the lower 80s (central South Dakota). Any lingering snow will limit the temperature rises.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

An upper-level ridge to the west is slowly moving its way towards SD and will continue to work its way east into the weekend. This helps to move warmer temperatures into central and northeastern SD. Temperatures are forecast to be 15-30 degrees warmer than normal through Saturday. However, in areas that have still have snow on the ground, mainly areas east of the Missouri River today and east of the James River Thursday, will have cooler temperatures until the snow melts. Highs will be in the 40s to 50s in these areas with snow, and in the 60s to 70s where the snow has melted. The melting snow over northeastern SD, as well as some lighter winds tonight, could lead to patchy areas of fog developing into Thursday morning. This fog could cause localized areas of lower visibilities into the morning hours.

While the ridge is moving over SD, precipitation chances stay out of the state as the precipitation rides the edge of the ridge into MN. This leads to some lines of precipitation occurring to the east, which will most likely stay out of northeastern SD and our west central MN counties. However, if the track of the precipitation ends up being slightly further to the west, far northeastern SD and west central MN could see a small chance for light sprinkles of rain tonight.

An upper-level shortwave is forecast to suppress the ridge during the weekend. With the ridge suppressed, some models show a low moving out of Alberta and east through Canada. A cold front attached to this low will move through central and northeastern SD Saturday into Sunday and will lead to the next chance for precipitation over the area. Models vary the timing of the frontal boundary, if there will be precipitation along the boundary, and where the track of the front and precipitation will be. This leads to lower confidence on the chance we get anything. One thing the models do agree on is that the cold front will bring in cooler temperatures for the remainder of the weekend and into next week. This will lead to around normal temperatures for this time of the year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions can be expected to prevail at all terminals through the majority of this forecast cycle. The exception will be KATY's terminal where MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will be possible early Thursday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.