textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with temperatures through mid week running some 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- South winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph will persist into Sunday. The corridor of highest winds slowly shifts east Sunday night into Monday.

- There is presently a 50 to 70 percent chance of precipitation Friday night through Saturday of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

At 1PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny. Some daytime heating/mixing strato-cu has developed/moved north into portions of the Missouri River valley region (west river). Temperatures have been warming through the 40s across much of the region. The breezy to windy 15 to 30 mph south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 mph continue, as well, mainly throughout and west of the James River valley.

This highly amplified and blocky Omega block in place across NOAM (upper ridge axis centered on this CWA) will persist through Sunday night, according to consensus model guidance. The upper wave pattern undergoes some changes between Monday and the end of the period, though, as a couple of chunks of energy move into the western CONUS Monday and Tuesday, and eventually over to the east coast. Models/qpf guidance continue to reduce the amount of precipitation potential with the first area of low pressure (Wednesday night/Thursday system) as it works its way across the nation's mid- section mid-week. Guidance is still indicating precipitation potential (higher probability of rain than snow), though, with the late week system/upper trof working east across the CONUS. Then, the upper ridge is supposed to pump back up across the middle two-thirds of the country.

Both ensemble probabilities and deterministic thermal progs support warm (warmer than November normals) temperatures through, at least, Tuesday of next week, perhaps even Wednesday depending on the amount/duration of cloudiness, before any low level CAA can happen.

These breezy/windy southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts are progged to continue through Monday. Sunday night, there could even be a moderately strong downslope wind event in the lee of the Prairie Coteau.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF valid period. South to southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will persist.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.