textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees below average through the weekend. Temps will range in the lower teens to around 30 today, warmest over south central SD. Slightly colder temps for Sunday, ranging from 10 degrees to the upper 20s. A warming trend is expected at the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Other than a few clouds here and there, a pretty quiet weekend is in store for the region as the CWA is on the southeastern side of a large elongated 1055mb high pressure system currently residing over the far northwestern Canadian territories. Today through Sunday, this large area of high pressure will slowly track east/southeast with the CWA on the southern edge of the high by 00Z Monday, as the center will be over north central Manitoba. Through Monday the high will shift southeast into Ontario with the southward extent of this high well through the central Midwest. It will continue to shift eastward as a gradient sets up over the western Dakotas, between this area of high pressure and low pressure over the Rockies. Aloft, the region will be to the east of a ridge with some shortwave activity riding down the eastern side of this ridge and over the Northern Plains today and this evening. A few of the CAMs do hint a spotty snow returns mainly tracking northwest to southeast out of northwestern SD and possibly tracking over portions of south central SD midday/afternoon. However, KPIR soundings shows a bit of moisture between 800-825mb but then a a very dry layer to the surface (due to the high), so any precip would probably not even make it to the ground. Pops are less than 10% both NBM and HREF. This ridge will track a bit eastward (and amplify) becoming broader with the northern edge flattening out a bit by early next week and transitioning into a troughing pattern over the region midweek.

With this high, winds will be mainly out of the north/northwest with gusts of 15 to 25 mph by this afternoon. A 850 northwest to southeast oriented jet will setup as winds at this level will increase this evening through the overnight hours (25-35kts) James Valley and eastward, which will keep winds at the surface breezy, with gusts of 20-30 mph, highest over the Coteau. This jet will shift a bit eastward Sunday with surface gusts 20-35mph James Valley and eastward by the afternoon, highest over the Coteau. Gusts could potentially be higher over/along the Coteau with 700mb winds of 40- 50kts, but as of right now the prob of gusts>40mph per NBM is 0%.

We are still watching a potential low that will develop out of Canada/MT and track across the Northern Plains Tuesday/Wednesday. Still quite the spread between models on exact track and strength of this low/trough. As of now, the majority of the QPF per various models looks to stay across ND into MN with the southern extent brushing far northeastern SD into west central MN. NBM prob of precip>0.10" is about 30-40% over northeastern SD into west central MN. Latest NBM/WPC pops has a 20-35% chance Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. EC meteograms indicate a 20-25% chance of precip at our ASOS sites with a mixed bag of either rain, snow, or mixed precip. So low confidence exists on the exact outcome for now and will be dependent on temps. Right now there is a 5-10% of at least minor impacts per WSSI Wed/Thurs.

Temps for the weekend have trended colder then 24 hours ago with highs in the lower teens to around 30 and 10 to the upper 20s on Sunday, coldest over northeastern SD. Temperatures gradually will warm up early next week with Tuesday's highs ranging in the 30s to 50s, which is above average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.