textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Some of the coolest temperatures of the season will be possible tonight. Overnight lows in some areas of northeast SD and west central will be cool enough for a touch of frost by daybreak Friday.

- Temperatures will remain near to below normal through the weekend before warming above normal next week.

- There is a 20-30 percent chance for showers on Saturday, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected through the next 7 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current temperatures range in the upper 40s to the upper 50s, with the warmest temps over west central MN. High pressure is currently over west central SD with ongoing northwest to southeast oriented mid clouds stretching from MT through central SD into Nebraska. Still some light returns on radar across south central SD. Soundings still indicate a very shallow saturated layer between 600-700mb with dry air at the surface. Therefore, any rain that does fall will be sprinkles or virga. Winds will continue to diminish to near calm as the high pressure system tracks eastward across the region. Through the overnight, high clouds will also track eastward across the CWA and exiting the region by Friday evening. With diurnal cooling and light winds, temps are forecast to drop in the upper 30s to the upper 40s, coldest over NESD. Patchy frost is still possible for this area but confidence remains low, depending on how fast the high clouds move in overnight before peak cooling. Latest REFS Prob of temps below 36 is 10% or less, with NBM up to 35%, highest along the ND/SD border over far NESD. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Early afternoon conditions across the forecast area range from mostly sunny skies and brisk northerly winds across northeast SD and west central MN while central SD is experiencing more clouds and some pesky sprinkles and brief showers. Overall, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

The center of a sfc high pressure system will build into the area tonight through Friday morning setting up a bit of a tricky temperatures forecast. Clouds are likely to hang tough across central SD tonight while northeast SD and west central MN remain clear to partly cloudy. With a dry air mass in place with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 30s and a combination of light winds and those clear skies, the setup could be right for some of the coolest temperatures of the season so far. Most of the forecast area, outside of northeast SD and west central MN will see overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. However, the northeast corner of SD and west central MN could dip into the mid to upper 30s prior to daybreak Friday. One of the key factors in this will be sky condition. Most of the overnight should remain clear but guidance does hint at high clouds encroaching into the James Valley and some locales farther east by about 09Z-12Z. If this were to occur, readings in that mid 30s range might be hard to achieve. Did lower values in these zones closer to NBM's 25th percentile. HREF/REFS guidance probabilities of seeing temperatures cooler than 37 degrees range from about 10-25 percent for the northeast corner of SD and west central MN. Did insert areas of frost wording into the forecast for those zones overnight and will highlight the threat in an SPS but for now will hold just shy of issuing any frost headline.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through Friday as high pressure maintains control and shifts east of the region by the afternoon. Southeast breezes will return to central SD in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph possible. The next system approaches the area Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure and a cold front will pass through the region at that time and deliver a 20-30 percent chance for showers mainly across the northern and northeastern half of the forecast area on Saturday. Prior to the fropa on Saturday, there will be enough of a window to see temps warm into the upper 60s to low 70s, but it will all be tied to the timing of that front. Conditions dry out for the latter half of the weekend as temps cool back below normal. This will spill over into Monday before the next surge of warmer than normal air returns Tuesday into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A band of mid level clouds, oriented northwest to southeast across central SD continue with radar still indicating spotty returns associated with these clouds. Latest HRRR soundings indicate just a bit of lift/saturation between 600-700mb at KPIR. However, low levels are quite dry so much of the precip may only be falling as sprinkles or virga. This looks to continue over the next several hours. This threat will diminish with sunset with the possibility of more light sprinkles/virga overnight at KPIR/KMBG, again low levels will remain dry per high pressure system. Winds become southeast on Friday and turn gusty up to 20-25 kts at KPIR/KMBG Friday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR cigs prevail through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.