textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 60s and 70s Today through Monday are 15 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Winds will shift to south or southwesterly and peak in intensity during the late morning. Broadly, wind gusts are expected to range between 35 to 45 mph. Higher winds will be over northeastern SD, with the favored downslope areas of the Sisseton hills at times exceeding 60 mph.

- Very high to extreme Grassland Fire Danger Index for today with the dry conditions, mild temperatures and strong winds.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two. Widespread moisture unlikely.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The aviation discussion have been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Not much overall change to the fire weather situation for today.

In regards to peak winds, NAM BUFKIT profiles still show upper 60kts in the critical layer around 10am, with the CAMS on average depicting 60+ mph with the NSSL WRF having a high of 74mph also at 10am. Aside from the obvious high winds associated with downslope conditions in a very confined portion of the wind advisory, the rest of the area remains in the NAM BUFKIT 30-40kt range when we do start mixing down. Might be close for portions of central South Dakota up into the James valley for a period in the morning but not a long duration enough to be confident in expanding the advisory, and its tough to determine how efficiently said winds will mix in general since its a warm advection regime. ARW/NSSL WRF both have an area of about 50mph for the eastern Missouri Coteau into the James valley between 5 and 9 am, so will need to monitor for the next few hours whether an expansion is needed.

As for temperatures, no major changes there. Will continue warmer in comparison to NBM deterministic given overall favorable wind direction for deeper mixing. There are some pockets of high clouds but most of the area should see ideal radiational conditions and high turnover to heating due to a lack of green-up/ET.

In regards to dewpoints, still looking at a very dry start to the day, surface dewpoints are in the single digits and teens. CAMS continue to advertise a plume of 20+ degree dewpoints migrating out of the west which we can see in obs around the hills. How quickly that moves in is still in question.

So we have a combination of mild temperatures, but the strongest winds are earlier in the day, and so is the core of the driest air which gets slightly moistened later today to complicate the fire weather concerns. No changes to Red Flag counties regardless.

We are also going to have to monitoring the potential for blowing dust as soils continue to dry out. Thankfully as of yet, the farmers generally haven't been out and taking advantage of the mild and dry weather, so there is some question as to whether we will have any source regions this far north. There are some dust/air quality models that have picked up on the conditions and have highlighted from western Kansas up through Nebraska and into the east/southeast of South Dakota.

Dry forecast even with the next system. Current system track is north of the area, with a cold frontal passage early Tuesday morning. NAM has a little blip of higher QPF, however other deterministic guidance shows only a few hundreds. NBM probability of exceeding 0.01 is only maxes out between 20 and 30%.

Next system after that is closer to Friday. GFS/EC are treating this as split flow systems with a low to the north and south. That generally would limit moisture unfortunately, and we are seeing that in the probabilities of about 30-40% east of the James for 0.25".

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Strong southerly winds will be the main aviation hazard today as gusts will range between 20-30 kts early this morning and then increase to between 35-45 kts by mid/late morning...especially at KABR/KATY. Low level wind shear with speeds upwards of 45-55 kts just off the deck will be possible at all terminals until about mid morning when surface winds will be strong enough to negate the LLWS. Winds will slowly diminish from west to east during the mid to late afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007-008-011- 019>023.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ017-018-036-037-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.