textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected today, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front. Gusts are expected to peak in the morning at 30 to 45 miles per hour, slowly diminishing through the rest of the day. Winds will also cause elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

- Temperatures cool down to slightly below normal (highs in the 40s) Thursday and Friday. However, a quick return to above normal temperatures is expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Upper-level ridge over the western CONUS remains in place today, which allows for a warm airmass to remain over the Northern Plains today. This morning is some potential for light rain to develop aloft this morning, but a dry layer near the surface will most likely prevent anything from reaching the surface. Therefore, little to no accumulation is expected. Highs today are expected to reach the 70s across much of the area, and some places over north central and central South Dakota may touch 80 degrees. These areas may also threaten record highs, but ultimately are expected to fall short, cloud cover being a major potential reason for that.

More robust chances for precipitation (mainly in the form of rain) return overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Current expectations are that the bulk of the precipitation will stay to the north of the Aberdeen forecast area, instead focusing over North Dakota in the area of stronger divergence aloft. A cold front will also shift south across the forecast area overnight tonight into Thursday. Despite the frontal motion, the best chances for precipitation remain focused along the South Dakota/North Dakota border. However, after the frontal passage, the cooler air will create a transition from rain to snow as the dominant precipitation type, should precipitation continue for that long. Overall not expecting much in the way of accumulation with this system. The latest NBM probability of a hundredth of an inch of liquid equivalent remains in a gradient across the CWA, increasing from south to north and peaking around 40- 60 percent along and north of US-12.

Behind the front, strong cold air advection will take hold in the form of strong northerly winds. Timing of the strongest cold air advection has shifted up slightly, now mainly occurring in the early morning to morning hours. However, still expecting the strong winds to persist through the afternoon, but with winds aloft beginning to decrease by the afternoon, surface winds may actually decrease through the day despite the better mixing potential in the afternoon. For the moment, still leaning towards the NBM 90th percentile for the duration of the strongest cold air advection in today's forecast due to the tendency for the NBM to under-forecast wind speeds under northerly cold air advection. Latest ensemble guidance still resolves a 10-20% chance of gusts reaching Wind Advisory criteria of 45 miles per hour. These winds will also cause some elevated fire weather concerns in the afternoon, with High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger expected. Luckily, minimum afternoon humidity will remain in the 35 to 40 percent range at the lowest, and will likely not coincide with the strongest winds. Still, lingering gusts upwards to 30 miles per hour in the afternoon will be enough to cause the elevated fire weather concerns.

The strong cold air advection will cause a fairly significant temperature drop. 850mb temperatures out ahead of the front range from 10 to 15 degrees Celsius, dropping to -5 to -10 Celsius behind the front. This translates to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal for the end of March both Thursday and Friday. Thursday in particular will see a non-diurnal temperature trend through the day.

The next upper-level ridge is set to move over the western CONUS by the weekend, eventually allowing the return of a warmer airmass to the Northern Plains. Expect above normal temperatures for the weekend with minimal chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.