textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures are expected to be above normal this coming week into next weekend, with a lack of any significant or impactful weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast. Guidance has mid/high clouds overspreading the forecast area tonight, while surface high pressure builds into the region. Looking at satellite imagery and a surface analysis, that's what is happening right now, and that should continue tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Mid-level shortwave trough axis is pushing into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon, with the best area of lift and associated rainfall now across the eastern CWA. Continue to make adjustments to PoPs to reflect radar trends. Cold front is also making its way eastward across central SD and will be in the James River valley later this afternoon. Quick clearing noted behind the departing wave so will make some adjustments to sky cover for the rest of the afternoon. Northwest winds are beginning to increase as expected over central SD in the post-frontal atmosphere.

Surface high pressure builds eastward into the area tonight, with winds becoming light and skies staying mostly clear to partly cloudy. Not a perfect radiational cooling night it appears, as there are indications of SCT-BKN mid/high clouds late tonight into Sunday morning, but still rather cool nonetheless as lows dip into the low to mid 40s. Would not be surprised if some locations sneak into the upper 30s. This high generally stays in place over the area on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies, fairly light winds, and highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week and next weekend, the overall pattern looks mostly dry and mild. Grand Ensemble suggests the mid level flow remains from the northwest, with a lack of any significant shortwave troughs. It's tough to find any impactful weather this coming week, with the main highlight being the mild and above normal temperatures. 850mb temps throughout the period are in the 75th-90th percentile at times. Looking for highs in the 60s and 70s, with temps flirting with 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday, then again Friday and Saturday. One must pay attention to humidity values this time of year as we creep closer to the fall fire season, but a look through the week shows we are well above critical values for much of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Good VFR is expected over the region, as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.