textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures are forecast for much of the 7-day forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Continue to see rather scattered light snow and mixed precipitation on radar, with a clear back edge of cloud cover just east of the Missouri river. Downslope winds have also weakened so allowed the wind advisory to expire. See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 827 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A few hours ago, there was a corridor across central and north central South Dakota that favored freezing rain/sleet, which is where the second batch of precipitation was beginning to move through, while the lead band of snow was moving over into the James River valley. Received confirmation near Hoven, SD of this light freezing rain occurrence late this afternoon. This was handled with a Special Weather Statement, given the swift movement of the precipitation and general low probability of measurable precipitation happening. Since then, the lead band of snow has completely left the far eastern CWA and this second batch of precipitation is what is now working out of the James River valley over onto the Coteau region and eventually into western Minnesota. The freezing rain/sleet threat is ended. Now just dealing with the interaction of falling snow and the downslope winds occurring in the lee-of-the-Coteau this evening. Still expecting the downslope winds to subside over the next few hours, as low level winds shift from southwest to northwest. However, with south-southwest wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph still noted on and east of the Prairie Coteau and this next round of banded snow moving in, opted to extend the wind advisory (and brief lowered visibility in falling/blowing snow language) in time a couple of hours to 11 PM CST now. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

As of 200pm, the north to south oriented light snow continues to push east out ahead of the warm front, which at 15Z, was over western SD. We did have a bit of light freezing rain over portions of Corson and southward through Stanley Counties, per obs and webcams. The main line of falling snow is mainly east of the Mo River with additional light snow/flurries over our far western CWA. Quite a difference in temperatures ahead and behind the front as temps are still in the teens and 20s ahead of it with our far western CWA counties in the 30s behind the front! The main highlight will be the ongoing snow continuing to track east over the James Valley and eastward this evening through early tomorrow morning. There is a concern for ongoing potential for freezing rain and freezing drizzle within the snow band as well as behind it, closer to the warm front, as it tracks east. There is lower confidence on this freezing drizzle formation, timing, and areal coverage.

By 00Z the warm front will be oriented southward through central SD, associated with this low in Canada. Cams are pretty consistent with the snow line continuing to track east, with the highest pops of 60- 90% James Valley and eastward. Most of the precip is expected to exit our far northeastern CWA Sunday morning/midday (model depending). 850/925mb temps are forecast to stay at or below 0C for the next few hours and surface temps below freezing here. So main ptype will continue to be snow. Further westward over central SD (and far westward of the JRV) as temps warm aloft, and either on the trailing edge of snow or behind it, ongoing freezing rain/freezing drizzle may continue as soundings at KPIR/KMBG do show this loss of ice aloft through the evening with ongoing lift and low level saturation while surface temps are still below freezing. A few of the Cams back this up and do show lingering "speckles' of freezing drizzle chances over this area as well with EC meteograms indicating about a 15% chance at KPIR and 10% at KMBG at 00Z. NBM ptype indicates a 10-20% of freezing rain/drizzle. Overall grids do a good job highlighting this potential but did extend slight pops westward to catch this. There is a spread in model soundings on timing of this drying aloft (losing ice nucleation as well as low level saturation), so this may need to be adjusted. As we get closer to midnight, the warmer air aloft spreads eastward as the warm front tracks east. Few of the Cams continue to indicate the possibility of freezing drizzle either mixed in with the snow or occurring behind the snow line over the JRV and eastward. Soundings show at KABR, we start to lose the ice nucleation aloft/drier air closer and after 06Z with a gradual decrease in ice nucleation aloft gradually eastward through 12Z. Meteograms really drop off with 5% or less of freezing drizzle over central SD by this time with anywhere from 5-15% for Aberdeen and eastward. So at 06Z NBM ptype of freezing precip is 10-25% James Valley and eastward with Ptype of snow at 60-80% Coteau and eastward. Soundings show the last of the freezing drizzle chance (15-20%) over the Coteau around and a little after 12Z while ptype is majority snow east of here. Due to low confidence, no headline or SPS has been issued for the freezing drizzle. An SPS may be needed if we do start getting reports. As for snow accumulations 00Z-18Z Sunday, is a trace to potentially 2 inches of snow, highest over west central MN with a glaze of ice possible.

Winds will remain breezy with the strongest winds James Valley and eastward this evening, especially along the eastern slopes of the Coteau, per southwest winds (downslope effect) where gusts could potentially reach 50 mph in localized areas (especially Peever) through the late evening. This along with the falling snow may result in occasional drops in visibility. Visibility could drop down to a 1/2 mile or less at times in the downslope areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this area through late this evening. Otherwise through the morning the winds will be diminishing as the wind shifts more westerly.

The cold front of this system will track in over the CWA Sunday, with the region on the southern side of a high pressure system over Canada, into Monday. The CWA will be within the gradient between this high and low to our northwest (along with weak energy aloft) may result in the return of light snow showers (30-50%) Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

Temps will gradually increase west to east over the CWA behind the warm front with temps near sunrise overall in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs for Sunday will range in the upper 20s to upper 30s, warmest south central SD. With this high pressure to our northeast early next week, temps will only be in the upper teens to lower 20s JRV and eastward with temps in the 20s/30s west of here. Warmer temps then expected Wednesday as WAA filters in from the west with the ridge aloft. Highs for Thursday could potentially range in the 40s and 50s!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A layer of MVFR CIGS with mainly unrestricted visibility for KATY/KABR. These CIGS will back into KMBG/KPIR later in the TAF period, and low CIGS will persist for all terminals through the remainder of the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.