textproduct: Aberdeen

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Stratus layer continues to migrate slowly southwest having cleared Aberdeen and not quite to Watertown, will likely linger across central South Dakota with light flow at 850mb under a ridge. Where it has cleared, models suggest the potential for fog re-develoment, up along the ND/SD state line in particular. Will wait and see where the clouds clear before updating fog mention.

Focus is on the system for Friday. There is a narrow axis of mid level warm advection providing the impetus for a band of snow along a corridor across central South Dakota, that weakens as it shifts east, with a lull in advection before another broader area of weak warm advection kicks in resulting in additional light snowfall amounts. So how intense will these snowfall rates get? NAM BUFKIT profiles suggest at times a very deep dendritic growth zone with these cold temperatures aloft, and low wind speeds limiting breakup, which is confirmed by NBM snow ratios of 16-18 to 1. HREF probabilities of snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour are zero however. Average for ensembles for Mobridge/Miller/Huron run about 0.4" liquid, translating to about 6 for snowfall where this band sets up. As such, posted a winter storm warning along and to the northwest of the original watch to cover CAM placement.

This will be very blowable snow given snow ratios, however in regards to the blowing snow model, the mean NBM highest winds (sustained) will require inch per hour snowfall rates to approach blizzard criteria, and as mentioned earlier, HREF doesn't support such high snowfall rates.

As for temperatures next several days, we remain under an arctic airmass. NBM temperatures bottom out Sunday/Monday, aided by the newest addition of snow. Northwest low level flow will keep temperatures from cratering Sunday morning. The same can not be said for Sunday night/Monday morning with a shift to southerlies, however NBM does bring in some cloud cover, a thick layer of cirrus according to GFS 300mb analysis and BUFKIT profiles, in line with an approaching shortwave. Lower level moisture appears limited to Nebraska at this time and the atmosphere is too dry in the subcloud layer to support precipitation reaching the surface.

UPDATE

Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Forecast remains on track. No major changes planned, but will likely need tweaks to hourly sky cover and temps.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Stratus layer continues to migrate slowly southwest having cleared Aberdeen and not quite to Watertown, will likely linger across central South Dakota with light flow at 850mb under a ridge. Where it has cleared, models suggest the potential for fog re-develoment, up along the ND/SD state line in particular. Will wait and see where the clouds clear before updating fog mention.

Focus is on the system for Friday. There is a narrow axis of mid level warm advection providing the impetus for a band of snow along a corridor across central South Dakota, that weakens as it shifts east, with a lull in advection before another broader area of weak warm advection kicks in resulting in additional light snowfall amounts. So how intense will these snowfall rates get? NAM BUFKIT profiles suggest at times a very deep dendritic growth zone with these cold temperatures aloft, and low wind speeds limiting breakup, which is confirmed by NBM snow ratios of 16-18 to 1. HREF probabilities of snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour are zero however. Average for ensembles for Mobridge/Miller/Huron run about 0.4" liquid, translating to about 6 for snowfall where this band sets up. As such, posted a winter storm warning along and to the northwest of the original watch to cover CAM placement.

This will be very blowable snow given snow ratios, however in regards to the blowing snow model, the mean NBM highest winds (sustained) will require inch per hour snowfall rates to approach blizzard criteria, and as mentioned earlier, HREF doesn't support such high snowfall rates.

As for temperatures next several days, we remain under an arctic airmass. NBM temperatures bottom out Sunday/Monday, aided by the newest addition of snow. Northwest low level flow will keep temperatures from cratering Sunday morning. The same can not be said for Sunday night/Monday morning with a shift to southerlies, however NBM does bring in some cloud cover, a thick layer of cirrus according to GFS 300mb analysis and BUFKIT profiles, in line with an approaching shortwave. Lower level moisture appears limited to Nebraska at this time and the atmosphere is too dry in the subcloud layer to support precipitation reaching the surface.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR stratus will continue to move through the region. IFR/MVFR conditions will become more widespread early Friday morning ahead of some moderate snow.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Friday to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ003-009-010-015>017-034-036-037.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for SDZ004.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday for SDZ005-006-018-019.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to noon CST Saturday for SDZ007-008-011-020>023.

Winter Storm Watch Saturday afternoon for SDZ010-017>019-036-037.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ033-035-048-051.

MN...None.