textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday afternoon. There is a 20-35% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph west of the James River Monday afternoon.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be around 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

An area of low pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan is producing gusty westerly winds across the eastern half of the CWA. The NBM probability of seeing gusts exceeding 30 mph is around 50 percent. KABR has exceeded 40 mph today. Because the winds are stronger than expected, have blended in some of the NBM 90th percentile for the rest of today, and actually through Monday. Showers associated with the warm air advection is ongoing across east-central ND, with a few CAMS suggesting a 20 percent chance for light pcpn over eastern SD and western MN later this afternoon and early evening.

Sunday should be dry with slightly cooler high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. A stronger storm system, currently over southern Nunavut, northern Saskatchewan, will slide southeastward throughout Sunday into Sunday night, with increasing westerly winds moving into the CWA after 3Z Monday. Half km winds off the GFS is 25 to 40 knots, with the highest values over eastern SD and western MN. Again, blended some NBM 90th into the wind grids for Sunday night and Monday. The cold frontal passage appears to drop south across the CWA earlier in the day on Monday as the latest NBM MaxT on Monday some 5 to 10 degrees colder then the previous forecast. The cooler temperatures may offset the gusty northerly winds to limit the overall fire weather potential. As of now, afternoon RH values are in the 30 percent range. Winds will be gusty with the NBM showing a 15 to 35 percent chance of gusts exceeding 40 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature mostly dry conditions with seasonally cool temperatures with highs in the 50s. These readings are 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Warmer air should move into the area by the end of the work week with highs reaching the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid TAF period. Gusty west, southwesterly winds will shift to the northwest behind a frontal passage later this afternoon and evening. The winds will subside some tonight and through the morning hours on Sunday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.