textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather into the morning across the central/portions of northeastern SD. Main hazards are 90 mph winds and large hail. Additionally, the development of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon into the evening across the far eastern edge of the forecast area. Main hazards are large hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Western U.S. wildfire smoke (aloft) will be over the region through Tuesday; potentially longer depending on how steering flow winds evolve this week. Some minor concentrations of near surface smoke could happen from Monday afternoon through Monday night.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued as temperatures are expected to warm into the 90s, with dewpoints in the 70s, across far northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota today. Heat index temperatures will be up into the 100F to 107F degree range for several hours this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to persist for most of this week. With highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and dewpoints well into the 60s, and even 70s for some locations, especially from Thursday onward, heat-related illnesses become a concern.

UPDATE

Issued at 858 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Trimming Convective Watch counties as the morning goes along. Also, adding/trimming counties to a high wind warning and wind advisory for wake-low winds developing behind this convective system moving through the CWA. Adjusted PoPs and wind/wind gust elements. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Thunderstorm producing high winds in central South Dakota continues to lift northeast with the watch expanded in response. Otherwise fog continues across the area. Will reduce counties in the advisory as fog clears post convection.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion...

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Storms are still forecast to move into central SD early this morning and move northeast into portions of northeastern SD. Models have continued to show these storms becoming high wind producing storms with 90 mph winds possible as the main hazard. At the same time, there is still the threat for large hail. This will continue into the morning until these storms move out or dissipate by mid-morning.

A surface low will be pushing into SD today as it moves to the northeast. Lots of warm, moist air will be pushing into northeastern SD and MN through the day. This will help with the development of storms over eastern SD into MN during the afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes into an environment with a lot of instability and shear. The high-res models are showing some storms developing during the late afternoon moving east and really taking off during the evening east of the area in MN. While most of the threat is to the east, there is still a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms to develop. These storms could have hail of an inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 60mph. While the main threat for severe storms during the afternoon is over eastern SD, there could be some scattered showers and storms that develop over north central SD during the afternoon from energy that has wrapped around the surface low. These storms could have hail up to an inch and winds up to 60 mph as well.

There will be warm temperatures today over northeastern SD, with highs in the 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. A heat advisory has been issued for areas over and east of the Prairie Coteau due to these warm temperatures. The hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat related illnesses in sensitive populations and those working outside. Additionally, with upper- level winds from the south, wildfire smoke will continue to move in aloft over central and northeastern SD today. This smoke will most likely stay aloft and not get to the surface, which will cause some smokey and hazy skies.

As the surface low sits to the north, a stationary front will be sitting over southeastern SD into MN. This will keep some slightly cooler temperatures in the area and precipitation from forming during the day Tuesday. This front will likely start to develop some storms and showers during the late evening into the overnight hours which are forecast to slowly move north into central and northeastern SD. This will lead to a threat for storms overnight Tuesday into the day Wednesday. Warm air will then slowly move back into central and northeastern SD during the later part of the work week, which will start to warm temperatures again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of VFR/MVFR in fog for KABR/KATY/KMBG. We are seeing visibility improve once convection rolls through. A cluster of storms which has just glanced KPIR is headed towards KABR and could expand far enough east to impact KATY though with less certainty. High winds have been accompanying this thunderstorm cluster.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ008-020>023. High Wind Warning until 11 AM CDT this morning for SDZ005-006- 010-017-018. Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ005-006-010- 017-018. MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.