textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds increase once again out of the northwest early Sunday, with gusts of 45 to 55 mph, through late Sunday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area.

- Snow showers move in late tonight and continue through Sunday afternoon. Accumulations up to 2 inches are expected with highest amounts in west central MN. The combination of snow and gusty winds will lead to drifting and blowing snow that will reduce visibility. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area.

- Wind chills of 15 below to near 30 below zero are expected Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The arctic airmass in place today is set to receive some reinforcements on Sunday. A weak sfc front swings through this evening ahead of an arctic front/Canadian sfc high that builds in from the northwest Sunday evening. Two to three potent shortwaves ride down the northwest flow aloft late tonight into Sunday. All of these features will work together to generate snow showers, gusty northwest winds and blowing snow on Sunday. Issued a winter weather advisory for the whole cwa Sunday when intermittent whiteout conditions are possible.

Because of the NBM's known biases in low QPF/high pop events, leaned toward WPC QPF for Sunday. This increases snow accumulations to around 2 inches from the Sisseton Hills into west central MN. Additional snow on the ground could lead to more persistent blowing snow concerns. However, the blsn tool still tops out below blizzard due to the intermittent falling snow. It will be something to monitor closely as the winds increase Sunday morning. The other question revolves around wind gust strength. NBM probs show a 40 to 60 percent chance for winds in excess of 55 mph Sunday. Steep low level lapse rates and 50 to 60 kts at 700 mb (40 to 50 kts at 850 mb) may result in wind gusts being underforecast. Blended in NBM 90th and still have values below High Wind Warning criteria. With a wind advisory already in place and the possibility of stronger than advisory level winds didn't want to can the wind advisory for the winter wx advisory only to end up needing a warning. Future shifts can now just upgrade the wind advisory where and when necessary if winds begin overachieving early Sunday.

Colder air and gusty winds remain in place into Monday. However, it looks like wind chills stay above advisory criteria. The pattern of snow showers/wind looks to repeat Tuesday into Wednesday with another arctic front settling in on Friday.

This period will continue to feature northwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Plains through the majority of the upcoming week. Within the flow there will be embedded shortwave troughs that may periodically move through the region that won't provide much in the way of any sensible weather. However, one wave of note we'll have to keep an eye will be on Tuesday into Wednesday when guidance is in fair agreement indicating a disturbance will track through the area. At this time, this upper trough will have the best chance for bringing in some light precipitation to the area. In house ensemble guidance continues to paint a 20-30 percent chance for light snow across portions of northeast SD and west central MN the latter half of Tuesday into Tuesday night. This system doesn't appear at the moment that it will be a blockbuster event. Moisture values appear to be limited but enough to produce some light snowfall. NBM probabilities of a 24 hour 1 inch or greater snowfall ending early Wednesday range between 20-40 percent along and east of a line from Mobridge to Redfield to Brookings. Beyond this time frame, guidance remains inconsistent with the timing and placement of any additional waves that may deliver potential for more precipitation, but the end of the week seems to be the most favored time our area could see the next chance.

As far as temperatures go through the period, Monday will start off cold with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero and wind chill values between 15-25 below zero. Mild air will try and sneak into the area on Tuesday ahead of that next upper trough where we could see daytime readings close to normal. The latter half of the week will feature gradually cooling temperatures back below normal with the potential for another shot of arctic air returning late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs will persist. Snow shower coverage will increase on Sunday as a series of shortwaves move through with an arctic front. Any snow showers will combine with winds gusting 30 to 40 kts and drop vsby to IFR in blowing snow, generally after 9z Sunday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ006>008-011- 018>023.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003-015-033-045.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ004-005-009- 010-016-017-034>037-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for MNZ039- 046.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ039-046.