textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 out of 5) is in place today. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 75 miles per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, and tornadoes will be possible.

- There is also a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding (a level 2 of 4 threat) in place over much of the area today. The greatest chances for excessive rainfall will be over north central and northeast SD as well as western MN. These areas have already received 1-3 inches of rain from this morning's storms. These areas are expected to see an additional 1-2" of rain at least, with the heaviest rain expected in the evening. Areas that see multiple round of storms may see as much as 2-4" of rain in total.

- A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures (low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming trend beginning by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

Also, allowed Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 to expire at midnight local time, but did reposition the Flood Watch from north central SD over to northeast SD into west central MN, valid until 5 AM CDT, to cover ongoing (and any future developing) heavy rain-producing thunderstorms there.

UPDATE Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 was expanded across north central SD eastward into the James River valley to account for elevated convection across northern SD capable of producing hail. Best instability remains further south over the CWA and have seen convection trying to form west of Pierre. Have been adjusting PoPs this evening to account for radar trends. Will be watching the northern CWA for flooding potential as well, especially for those areas just north of Hwy 12 who received heavy rainfall earlier this morning. Aviation discussion has also been update below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

As of about 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the low 80s with winds out of the north behind the front and out of the southeast ahead of the front. This front will once again be the focus for storm development late this afternoon into the evening hours. The storms from this morning have moved out of the forecast area, leaving behind some rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2 inches, localized up to 3 inches. This will play a role in flooding potential later this afternoon and evening.

A low pressure system starts to move into southwest SD today with a nose moving into south central SD. Storms will start to form in this area of low pressure and along the front in central SD around 5 to 7 PM. The environment lacks low level shear but surface to 1 km SRH from the RAP is pretty good along the front. This will be supportive of tornadoes. Lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and there is plenty of CAPE to support supercells with large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60-75 mph. SPC has highlighted the forecast area in slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather with a 2% tornado risk along and around the front. The HREF shows storm motion in generally a southwesterly direction at 5 to 10 kts, so very slow. This, combined with PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches will increase chances of flooding, especially in east/northeast SD. There is potential for storms to become more linear and transition into a MCS with an increased chance for damaging winds. Storms are expected to last into the morning hours of Wednesday.

The next big story of the forecast is a ridge that moves into our area from the west this weekend into next week. This will result in several days of hot weather. Highs Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year with heat index values near or exceeding 100 degrees. This will put HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories, with portions of central and northeast SD reaching the extreme category both Monday and Tuesday. This will affect anyone. Make sure to keep a look out for signs of heat related illnesses, especially with outdoor events.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of TSRA/+TSRA across northeast SD into west central MN early this morning will be affecting KABR/KATY for the first couple of hours of the TAF valid period. MVFR/IFR vsbys can be expected with the heavy rain-producing thunderstorms there. KABR is dealing with a comms issue, but in house real-time data should permit for amendments to KABR TAF. KMBG comms have also gone down, and will be carrying AMD NOT SKED on that TAF. MVFR/IFR CIGs are forecast to develop/increase across the region by morning and persist for, at least, the first half of the day before there is any potential of VFR conditions returning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for SDZ006>008- 011-021. MN...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for MNZ039-046.