textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat advisory for the James Valley and points west this afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees and dewpoints in the 60s resulting in heat index values around 100 to 105.

- Storms expected along a cold front late this evening into early Monday. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) covers most of the forecast area with a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) around and south of I-90. Main threat is high winds with hail up to 1 inch as a secondary threat. Not expecting a lot of moisture overall either. - Heightened Fire Weather threat for Monday. Lightning starts from storms Monday morning are possible. Northwest winds of 25 to 40 mph during the day, with drier air. Afternoon humidity down to around 20% across the Missouri Valley region, 30-40% across northeast South Dakota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 60s to low 70s with winds out of the southeast. Heat will return today with highs in the 90s to near 100 and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and west of the James Valley from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT. There is also a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms this evening across most of the forecast area with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) around and south of I-90. The main threat will be mainly strong wind gusts of 60-75 mph, with hail up to an inch in diameter as a secondary threat. There are some showers/thunderstorms expected this morning, but no severe weather is expected from these storms.

Looking ahead, heat continues Monday with similar highs and heat index values. Winds will also increase Monday with a low pressure system and cold front moving across the area. Winds are forecast to gust 30-35 mph mainly north of Hwy 14. This will increase fire danger concerns due to continued warm temperatures and dry fuels. Tuesday through the end of the work week, temperatures return to normal for this time of year. Models are starting to show a signal for a return of above average temperatures for the weekend. There are a couple chances for storms during the second half of the week, although chances are generally less than 50%. A plume of rather concentrated smoke moves in aloft Monday afternoon which will create milky skies. HRRR smoke shows a bit of surface level smoke moving in as well. This could result in a slight reduction in visibilities.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms wll affect the region today. The first is moving through this morning. The next will move into central SD thsi evening before progressing eastward overnight. Storms this evening may be severe with strong winds the primary threat.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>006-009-010- 015>018-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None.