textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms will remain possible through the late evening hours across far south central and northeast SD into west central MN. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for parts of northeastern and central South Dakota, as well as western Minnesota. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) clips part of far northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. With these storms, the main severe threats will be hail of one inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph.

- Near surface smoke moving into the region may contain a few pockets of concentration of smoke high enough that the smell of smoke in the air can be detected, possibly reducing visibilities down to 5-7 miles. Air quality could drop through tonight across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Those with breathing sensitivities should plan accordingly.

- After Monday, downright chilly feeling lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s is forecast for the next few nights, along with high temperatures only warming into the 70s Tuesday and 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Then, look for a gradual warm up back into above climo normal territory heading into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 959 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The Red Flag Warning that was in effect across parts of central SD was allowed to expire on time earlier this evening. Wind the strong northerly winds that set up across those central SD zones earlier this evening, went ahead and issued a short-fused SPS for the strong winds. Some gusts observed across north central SD were around 60 mph. Storms did end up firing across far northeast SD into west central MN this evening and continue to affect parts of those areas. It appears most of the severe weather threats were northeast of our CWA across parts of northwest and northern MN. Can't rule out a strong storm or two through late evening across our far eastern zones, but those threats should be diminishing with time as chances will dwindle after midnight. Refreshed PoPs and winds to bring them more in line with the trends this evening with forecast updates sent.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated to widely scattered elevated showers/sprinkles continue over South Dakota. Temperatures are warming into the 80s out ahead of a cold front analyzed from near Leola down to Kennebec. Behind the front, temperatures have only warmed into the 70s to around 80 degrees. Ahead of the front, winds are southerly 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts at times. Behind the front, winds are becoming northerly around 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph at times. Currently seeing a mid-level thermal capping inversion of +14C to +16C at 700hpa. It was stronger/warmer than that earlier this morning, and is expected to continue to decrease/cool-off a few more degrees through late this evening.

The cold front will continue to march east, departing the southeastern corner of the CWA at or after 10 PM CDT. Acting as a forcing mechanism, the front may have enough time to interact with energy aloft while still over the CWA this evening to begin producing boundary-layer (not elevated) sourced convection, once the mid-level thermal capping inversion has been eroded sufficiently. Still thinking if convection develops, the shear/instability in place favors the eventual formation of rotating updrafts/supercells that move east out of the CWA late this evening into the early overnight hours.

With surface obs across the western Dakotas (post-frontal) reporting visibility 6-8 miles, thinking that near surface smoke is going to be enough over this CWA from early this evening through early Tuesday morning to continue mentioning in the weather gridded element of the forecast database and in the messaging. By mid- morning on Tuesday, the HRRR has progged the bulk of this near surface smoke to have shifted south of the CWA.

With lower heights aloft over the CWA and a decent low level CAA/dry air advection sequence ongoing, Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look cooler than normal for (both high and low) temperature. Ensemble clusters analysis and deterministic GSM output continue to support a dry extended forecast with a semi-flat upper ridge west/upper trof central and east CONUS holding court, such that the steering flow is expected to become west-northwesterly Thursday through Monday of next week. In fact, some of the Clusters analysis suggests that eventually/slowly the western CONUS upper ridge will intensify, leading to the warming of temperatures back into the mid/upper 80s to upper 90s from east to west throughout the region, particularly Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Potential for a SHRA/TSRA remains for the KATY terminal through the late evening hours that could bring cigs/vsbys down to MVFR or near MVFR ranges. If this activity materializes, it is expected to be east and gone from the terminal by around midnight. Otherwise, gusty northerly winds will persist at KABR/KPIR/KMBG this evening into the early overnight with VFR conditions expected at these sites. KATY will initially start this forecast period with gusty southerly winds before switching to the west and northwest by mid evening. VSBY restrictions due to wildfire smoke will remain possible through late evening and overnight before thinning and clearing out.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.