textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry and windy conditions will persist through the late afternoon into the early evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until early evening for most of the area as Very High Grassland Fire Danger conditions persist.

- A cold front will sweep through tonight. Winds will become northerly and turn gusty driving in a much cooler air mass by daybreak Friday.

- Light rain or a rain/snow mix will be possible this evening into the overnight with very little in the way of accumulations expected for most areas. Portions of north central SD still have a 50/50 chance for seeing a quarter of an inch of precipitation.

- The cooler than normal pattern will spill over into the beginning of the weekend before temperatures gradually warm back above normal through the first half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The cold front now stretches from about Britton southwest to Miller. Winds have shifted to the north and northwest behind the front. Winds will remain gusty overnight as the front continues its push east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Most of the forecast area is seeing south to southwest winds gusts between 25-35 mph this afternoon, with a few spots even closer to 40 mph at times. RH values have ranged as low as 15-25 percent for most locales so far this afternoon. We still have the remainder of the afternoon for peak heating and drying on the way. Wind speeds will remain gusty but as a low pressure system continues to work into the area, winds will slacken some by late afternoon and early evening. Will be keeping the Red Flag Warning in place though through the early evening.

For tonight, a cold front associated with that area of low pressure will move through the area. South to southwest winds will turn west to northwest this evening before eventually northerly by late tonight and early Friday. BUFKIT profiles still show a stout inverted-V structure with a pooling of elevated moisture and instability aloft. Can't rule out a few elevated storms across parts of central SD through the first half of the evening. Most of the energy and precip associated with this next upper wave set to enter the region tonight and Friday will be post frontal light rain initially. As a colder air mass begins to infiltrate the area overnight, a rain/snow mix or perhaps a little sleet will be possible. Any accumulations will be quite minor and mainly occur on grassy areas during the overnight hours across the northern tier of counties in SD. Moisture remains rather limited for most of the CWA, with the exception of north central SD. Grand Ensemble probs for greater than a quarter of an inch still range between 40-70 percent north and west of the Mobridge area. Guidance still remains locked in on an area of low stratus to overtake most of the area late tonight and persist into the morning hours. Improvements are expected by midday and afternoon but cloud cover looks to remain prevalent through the day.

Cold air advection setting in tonight in early Friday will lead to a much colder day on Friday. Daytime temperatures are expected to struggle, especially if cloud cover remains thick. Readings will be a good 40-50 degrees colder on Friday compared to the 70s and 80s the area has seen today. This cooler than normal temperature pattern will persist into at least the first half of the weekend with daytime highs Saturday in the 40s to low 50s and a healthy northwest breeze. However, some sunshine is expected so this should help mitigate the chilly conditions.

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Another upper trough is progged to crash onto the west coast by the middle of next week leading to upper ridging locally. This will help to maintain dry conditions and mild temperatures. We anticipate temperature readings through the latter portion of the 7 day forecast will go back above normal. However, where will readings actually end up is the big question. NBM's 25th-75th percentile range for high temperatures continue to maintain a difference of about 8-15 degrees Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR as showers move in behind the cold front. Cigs will improve again from west to east Friday morning through early afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.