textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

-The winds will pick up again tonight into Saturday, with a 30-50% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills.

-Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s. These temperatures could cause frost to form overnight before the winds pick up.

UPDATE

Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Made a few minor changes to the forecast today, mainly to decrease the sky cover some and lower wind speeds and gusts.

UPDATE Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Strong northerly winds have been gusting up around 45-55 mph overnight as a stronger winds aloft are pushed to the surface by cold air advecting into central and northeastern SD. These winds will slowly be decreasing from west to east through the early morning, with wind gusts over northeastern SD decreasing below 30 mph by mid morning. The stronger winds aloft have also been able to interact with some moisture aloft and cause some scattered showers to develop overnight and move through the area. As the winds die back early this morning, so does the ability for these showers to develop. Through the day, drier air aloft will be moving in as high surface pressure shifts over SD. Both the drier air and high pressure will help to finally erode the clouds that have been stuck over central and northeastern SD and west central MN, and we will have some clear skies by the afternoon.

Those clear skies will help to cool temperatures tonight into Saturday morning into the mid to low 30s. These cold temperatures could help frost to form over northeastern SD and west central MN tonight. This frost will have to form during the early overnight hours, because as the high pressure moves out this evening, strong southerly winds will move in over the area. These stronger winds will disrupt the frost formation, and can keep the frost from forming into early Saturday morning. These winds will be gusting up around 25-30mph across central and northeastern SD overnight. Additionally, as these winds reach the Prairie Coteau, they could become stronger due to downsloping winds. There is a 30-50% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the coteau Saturday morning. A wind advisory might be needed for these areas into early Saturday afternoon because of this. Warmer temperatures will be moving in Saturday from the southerly winds, which will help to warm temperatures about 5-15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year Saturday and Sunday.

The downsloping winds from the southwesterly direction will continue into Saturday night. Then, a surface trough will then be moving through SD Sunday, shifting the winds to be coming from the north and decreasing the downsloping effects along the coteau. The drier air that moves in today will stick around through the beginning of the week and will help to keep precipitation from developing as the surface trough move through on Sunday, as well as into the beginning of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Continuing to see stratus cigs breaking up across the region, and rising from MVFR to VFR. By 18Z, all four terminals should be in VFR conditions, which are forecast to persist through the end of the TAF valid period. North-northwest winds 10 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will continue to diminish today, before switching around to south-southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots with some higher gusts by the end of the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.