textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and above average temperatures (40s to near 60) today, falling to below average this weekend.

- Increasing west to northwesterly winds (25 to near 40 mph gusts) today, along with lowering humidity (25 to 40 percent), will bring high/very high fire danger to central/south central SD.

- Snow chances (50 to 70 percent) return tonight through Saturday over central and portions of northeastern SD. A general 1 to 2 inches expected, but some higher end scenarios are closer to 4 to 5 inches.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Will continue to monitor humidity trends across central/south central SD through the afternoon as they will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range. Gusty northwest winds combined with the low humidity will bring very high fire danger to central/south central SD. Otherwise, a mild day today with most areas rising into the 40s and 50s, while south central SD flirts with 60 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 30s to low 40s with winds out of the west to west northwest at around 10 to 15 mph.

We currently are sitting in the warm sector of a low pressure system moving across southern Canada. The cold front from this low will move northwest to southeast across the area today resulting in a rather wide range of highs and a strong temperature gradient. Highs today across the northeast half of the CWA will be in the low 40s, assuming the front doesn't come in ahead of schedule. The southwest portion of the CWA will be in the 50s. Did bump up temps in south central SD a little bit. Winds along the front will be strong, gusting to around 40 mph, but not quite long enough for a wind advisory. Behind the front, winds will be supported by CAA. Also bumped up winds slightly to show that CAA assist. With this combination of warm temperatures and strong winds, grassland fire danger is elevated. RHs aren't quite up to warning criteria, even with these slight increases. Across the northeast portion of the CWA, things are getting set up for a snow event Friday evening into Saturday morning. A nice band of frontogenesis sets up along and around a line generally from Mobridge to Watertown which is where a band of slightly higher snow could develop. The HREF is showing some snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.5" per hour in this area, but generally snowfall totals are expected to be between 1 and 2 inches with some locally higher amounts closer to 4 or 5 inches possible. Not confident enough on higher end snow totals or location of heaviest snow to issue a headline. Will let the next shift decide that.

The rest of the forecast has some more chances for precipitation, although little in the way of QPF is expected. Temperatures next work week are expected to increase through the week, reaching potentially the high 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday before some slightly cooler air moves in for the second half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours today. Tonight, -SN/SN will move eastward across northern SD with IFR VSBY possible/likely. Will also see MVFR CIGs move in with this storm system as well.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.