textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall moves out this afternoon into early this evening. On average moisture expected ranges between 0.25in and 0.75in with locally higher amounts possible.

- Warmer next week, with temperatures persistently above average. Highs range in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Monday and Tuesday might see the mercury puncture the 90F degree mark (10 to 20 degrees above normal).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are cloudy and it continues to rain across the CWA, mainly along/north of U.S. Highway 212. Temperatures are holding mainly in the low to mid 50s, on southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph at times.

So, the upper circulation (over Kirley, SD) of this current rain system will gradually spin its way up toward the Mobridge area by early this evening and continue to trek on up into North Dakota through the early overnight hours, taking the rest of the rain chances with it. If the current clearing across central South Dakota can continue to happen across the eastern/southeastern portion of SoDak this afternoon, there could be some weak convection developing along the wind shift line/warm front/cold front triple point region, as it works its way north/eastward. Low level wind shear and surface vorticity on these boundaries could support the formation of perhaps a funnel cloud or two on the updraft stage of any developing CU/TCU this afternoon. However improbable as it would be for this to happen, should one occur and reach all the way to the ground, it would be considered a landspout. Again, there would need to be sufficient sunshine/heating to destabilize the boundary layer this afternoon, and that is, currently, looking rather improbable.

Not much change in the rest of the forecast beyond tonight. Other than some potential accus-type/elevated showers or thunderstorms straddling the southern CWA border on the low level jet Saturday night, the forecast turns dry for Saturday through Tuesday, while upper level ridging builds over the region and temperatures warm up. A couple of the potentially warmest days of the 7-day forecast show up Monday and Tuesday, at least that's what the GFS/Canadian and NAM and their associated ensembles would have one to believe. The somewhat cooler ECMWF deterministic output and its ensembles are cooler than the other models, insomuch as to register as a good 5 or more degrees cooler in the temperature forecast for next week. And, with the green up in full swing across the region, am inclined to lean toward the EC's cooler guidance. After Tuesday of next week, the pattern becomes noticeably split flow, across the Pacific Northwest on up into Canada, with the lower 48 landing itself in a rather blocky/highly amplified trof/ridge/trof pattern, and the CWA ends up stuck in the somewhat weak southerly component steering flow winds aloft. There should be no lack of low level moisture to work with, though. So, with some instability around in the region to work with from mid to late next week, could be seeing some heat-of-the- day popcorn variety showers/storms developing each afternoon/evening with daytime heating.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A storm system crossing the region will bring widespread rainfall and MVFR/IFR conditions. Improvement to flying conditions may occur as early as late this afternoon at KPIR, but probably take a while longer into this evening/overnight to occur at KMBG/KABR/KATY. In addition, pockets of fog may develop overnight, particularly up on the Prairie Coteau.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.