textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple of weak disturbances will bring a combination of flurries or light snow and/or light freezing drizzle to parts of the forecast area tonight. Any accumulations will be light with only nuisance impacts but enough to create some slick spots.

- Temperatures Sunday and for much of next week will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with mainly dry conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Breaks in lower clouds are making the temperature forecast interesting tonight. Areas across the northeast as far west as Aberdeen may see temperatures drop quickly over the next hour but then steady as clouds move back in.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Cloudy skies, occasional flurries and lingering fog continue to remain the main weather themes again today. This trend will likely persist into tonight and early Saturday for some parts of the forecast area. Currently sfc analysis shows high pressure remains draped northwest to southeast across eastern ND into MN. A nearly stationary frontal boundary runs from central MT southeast into eastern WY and western NE/KS. A couple areas of low pressure remain anchored on this front across the Northern High Plains into the Central Plains. Not much change is expected with these features the next 24-36 hours. The only notable change is the frontal boundary and sfc low out west will try and intrude farther east into parts of western SD tonight into Saturday.

Our forecast area finds itself between a couple of upper waves located north and south of the CWA. The southern disturbance will continue shifting east into eastern NE/western IA tonight while the northern system traverses across southern Canada into northern MN. Both waves are expected to remain rather weak as they pass through the region. The shortwave to the north may play a part in generating flurries or light snow across northeast SD into west central MN tonight. Any accumulations will be very light. As the southern wave tracks southeast and away from our area tonight, low level moisture will thicken across our eastern zones. BUFKIT soundings through the evening at Watertown indicate saturation below about 800mb with a dry layer between about 800mb and 700mb with saturation above 700mb indicating we will see a seeder-feeder process leading to some light snow or flurries. Weak to moderate warm advection in that saturated layer will help to contribute to the precip. Closer to midnight into early Saturday, we look to lose that saturation above 700mb which will in turn lead to a period of light freezing drizzle across parts of northeast/east central SD. Any accumulations are expected to remain light only creating nuisance impacts overnight, but still enough to perhaps lead to a light glaze and scattered slick spots for some areas.

Drier conditions should return after sunrise Saturday morning. Low stratus will again plague a good portion of the forecast area during the day with some exceptions across central SD. Clouds are expected to start breaking up across portions of the Missouri Valley and south central SD during the morning hours. Meanwhile, the overcast sky is likely to persist across northeast SD and west central MN. Most locales will stratus over Saturday night into Sunday morning before upper ridging builds overhead early Sunday and the pressure gradient begins to tighten between the high to the east and low to the west. This should get the lowest portion of the atmosphere more agitated and capable of gradually eroding the clouds from west to east through the daytime hours Sunday. There remains some guidance solutions that show another weak shortwave will move through the region the 2nd half of Sunday bringing a brief shot of light frozen/freezing precip to our far eastern zones. This will be something to keep an eye on the next day or two because as of right now PoPs remain still rather low in those eastern areas with most of the rest of the forecast area dry. A rather benign zonal upper flow pattern tries to set up across the region through midweek with the potential still for embedded weak waves rolling through. This will at least keep a mild Pacific air mass in place with above normal temperatures expected. Beyond midweek, the pattern turns more murky with low confidence on temps and precip during the latter half of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A chaotic mix of VFR/IFR skies are floating around the region this evening. Tried to time the reentry of MVFR clouds across the east as best as possible over the next few hours. All sites may see some improvement Saturday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.