textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold air will continue through Monday morning. Highs will be in the single digits below to teens above zero, with lows of -5 to around -15. The coldest air will be over far northern and northeastern South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Winds chills Saturday morning of -20 to around -30 degrees are forecast overnight through mid morning Saturday.

- Temperatures return to near normal values Monday afternoon, with highs in the teens and 20s.

- Mainly dry weather is expected to continue for the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 519 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A few adjustments made to headlines this afternoon. There are just a couple of locations still hovering right around the extreme cold warning criteria (-40 degrees) across northeast South Dakota, but for the most part, conditions have improved enough to allow the warning to expire. However, a pretty widespread area from north central South Dakota across to northeast South Dakota is still solidly with in the -30 advisory criteria. There will likely be a period of time this evening where winds drop off and temperatures are "warm" enough to where we see wind chill values improve, before they then drop back into the -25 to -30 degree range, but didn't want to complicate headlines unnecessarily. Therefore, adjusted the advisory timing to take effect now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The shifting winds is effectively disrupting lingering bands of clouds or flurries off of the open waters of the Missouri River. Winds will be light late this afternoon and be out of the southeast this evening. Cold air remains in place, with the 1048mb surface Arctic high stretching from southern Saskatchewan through ND and across eastern SD and southwestern MN. This area of high pressure will move across southern MN by late evening with southerly winds returning to our forecast area by 06Z.

The pressure gradient increases slightly Saturday, with winds out of the south increasing with gusts of 15-20kts primarily east of the MO River midday Saturday. These winds and the surface temperatures will be the main concern, as wind chills hover near advisory criteria once again overnight through Saturday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory has been added for much of the area east of the MO River with wind chills dip into -25 to around -30F.

Cold weather headlines look to be more limited in coverage, if needed at all Sunday morning, with wind chills around -25 or slightly below for mainly the Leola Hills and Prairie Coteau counties.

Saturday night/Sunday morning we'll have a weak surface low shifting across southern SD or northern NE. At this point, little to no precipitation is expected. Another area of high pressure will sink in from the north during the day Sunday and slide across the Central Plains Sunday night. After highs in the single digits to teens above zero Saturday, we'll be back into the single digits either side of zero Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be able to at least briefly moderate back to near normal values Monday afternoon. A few above freezing readings are expected over south central SD.

Other than flurries, our next chance of precipitation is Wednesday morning, and only a 20% chance of light snow. There looks to be plenty of discrepancies in the specifics as we move beyond Wednesday, with a 500mb trough lingering over our area or just to our east and waves of high pressure at the surface.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions within a very cold arctic high pressure system are expected to prevail. Streamers coming off the Missouri River are not expected to impact KPIR or KMBG, given how light and variable winds are forecast to be.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for SDZ003>011-016>023-034-036-037.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.