textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog, possibly dense, is expected across portions of north central into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota later this evening into Thursday morning.

- Above normal high temperatures are expected Thursday, Sunday and Monday, with readings closer to or just a few degrees below normal Friday into Saturday and again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

- There is a 40-75% chance of precipitation occurring from late Thursday night through Friday night, with much of the precipitation falling as rain Thursday night into Friday. A moving corridor of wintry mix precipitation (freezing rain, sleet and snow) is expected to chase the rain eastward into Minnesota Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are a mix of sun and high clouds. Dense fog has dissipated, and fog headlines are gone. Temperatures are warming through the 40s, 50s and 60s. And, winds have a southerly component to them generally 5 to 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts. Still carrying High/Very high Grassland Fire Danger today and Thursday. It's a case of parameters not sync'ing up, though, as today's RH's may drop down to 15 to 20 percent across portions of central/south central South Dakota, the wind gusts are not expected to exceed 20 mph. On Thursday, the wind gusts run up to between 20 and 35 mph, but the relative humidity may not fall below 30 percent.

There will be a cold front (currently draped across the southern half of North Dakota) backing it's way down into this CWA tonight before stalling out and eventually re-orienting itself north-south or northeast-southwest across the region Thursday. There could be more fog/low clouds around tonight because of this surface trof of low pressure and generally light and variable winds and only some few-scattered high clouds expected overnight.

Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble camps are similarly timed/placed in terms of surface low/inverted surface trough tracks across the central and northern plains Thursday night through Friday. By the end of the day Friday, the GEFS has slowed its surface low progression over southern Minnesota, which makes sense, given how much stronger the GFS, in general, is being with this system to wrap up/close off an upper level low Friday afternoon/night. However, given the orientation of upper level features (positive-tilt longwave trofs/ridges) when this system is progged to lift out of the Colorado Rockies, a somewhat weaker/more transient upper level low/surface reflection, and thus lesser qpf/snow/ice accums, like the EC/Canadian camps of model solutions seems like a more probable scenario. Will keep in mind the slower/stronger GFS's scenario and keep it on the back burner, though, for now.

The north-south oriented boundary will move west to east across the CWA Thursday night into Friday. And with it, the corridor in which freezing rain/sleet may occur. It's not expected to be a stationary zone for ice accumulation, nor is it expected to be a long-duration threat. The window for freezing rain/sleet is moving east on Friday with the surface boundary/inverted surface trof. Expect the best WAA- forcing/lift to start generating precipitation sometime in the late Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. And, for those areas of the CWA east of this boundary, expect rain to be the primary p- type, while the freezing rain/sleet/snow potential lags behind the boundary. Currently there is a corridor of 1-3 inches of snow possible (24 hour probability of 2 inches or more is ~20-35 percent) late Thursday night through late Friday night from roughly Murdo to Faulkton to Sisseton. Currently, ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch (24 hour probability of 0.01 inch or more of ice accum is ~20-45 percent) are focused mainly on and east of the Prairie Coteau in northeast South Dakota.

Models depict a bump up in northerly winds/gusts Friday into Friday night behind this inverted surface trof. Sustained winds in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range are possible. Based on temperature, wind, forecast snow accumulation and pre- existing snow on the ground (just drifts of ice chunks), the blowing snow model is generating minor blowing snow potential and ground- level drifting potential.

Looking beyond this system, ensemble clusters analysis depict a general de-amplification of the flow pattern to zonal or quasi-zonal flow for Monday through Wednesday of next week. The ensembles and deterministic models hint at another low pressure/storm system moving across the northern plains by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Temperatures much above normal look to only get derailed Friday into Saturday morning and then again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist at all four terminals through the late evening hours before low stratus and fog begin to envelop parts of north central, northeast and east central SD. Expect sub-VFR cigs/vsbys will set in after midnight at KABR/KATY/KMBG TAF sites. These conditions are likely to persist through at least the mid morning hours on Thursday before VFR conditions return. Cigs/vsbys will be as low at LIFR at KABR/KATY and as low as MVFR/IFR at KMBG.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.