textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an Enhanced (3 of 5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon through tonight over much of the region. Main hazards are 1 to 2 inches in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-75 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Friday afternoon through Saturday morning over much of the region. Main hazards are 1 to 2 inches in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-75 mph.

- Western U.S. and Canadian wildfire smoke (aloft) will remain over parts of the region through Friday. Higher concentrations of near surface smoke will be possible across parts of central SD from about midday today into the evening, but will be highly variable when/where thunderstorms are expected.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as 10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s between late this week through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Warm, moist air will be moving into SD today. This will help temperatures to be slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. While there will be moisture moving in, the dewpoints will stay in the 60s and will keep the heat index values near the max temperatures, in the low to mid 90s. The warmer temperatures will help increase instability over central and northeastern SD, with models showing MLCAPE values in between 2000- 4000 J/kg. Storms could start to develop as a frontal boundary starts to move in again over SD this afternoon through the evening into an area of higher instability and moisture. Models are showing two different scenarios that could happen with the storms.

For scenario 1: A pocket of drier air moves over central SD during the afternoon. This pocket will cause a break in the storms as they develop, with one area over ND/northern SD and another area of storms developing over southern SD during the afternoon. Then another round of storms could develop and move in behind the first round, as the dry pocket of air moves out during the evening into the overnight hours. Scenario 2: The pocket of drier air does not develop over central SD. This would then allow the storms to develop to the northwest/west of central SD and then move east/southeast as a singular line of storms through the afternoon and evening. For whatever scenario that does occur, the hazards will be similar. There is an enhanced (level 3 of 5) to slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms to occur. The more discrete storms that develop at the start will have the main threats of large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and strong winds up to 60 mph. Additionally, the development of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. As the storms continue on over northeastern SD, they will become more of a line with the primary threat for winds of 60-75 mph and hail up to 1 inch. Additionally, the spin-up of a tornado along the line of storms cannot be ruled out.

Today isn't the only day with severe weather forecast to occur, as there are multiple upper-level shortwaves moving over SD through the weekend which will provide support to the forcing and lift for storm development. Friday could see chances for scattered storms and showers to start developing and moving over central and northeastern SD during the afternoon into the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. The start time and how these storms develop will really depend on how today's storms go. Some models have today's storms pushing out a lot of the instability and moisture from SD, leaving slightly cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday. This would then push storm development later as it would take longer for instability to regroup. Other models keep the environment nearly similar to today's, which would allow storms to develop a bit earlier. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) over much of central and northeastern SD for severe storms Friday. The primary hazards will be hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and winds of up to 60-70 mph. Another round of scattered storms will be possible Saturday, from lingering storms left from the overnight convection and another wave moving through during the afternoon and evening. These storms again have the ability to become severe.

Wildfire smoke continues to move in over SD today and Friday, and likely into the weekend as upper-level flow continues to push it in. The smoke continues to stay aloft, though there are some signs a little bit of it could make it to the surface over areas west of the Missouri River. However, this will all depend on how and where storms develop. More smoke will likely continue to move in aloft through the weekend. Temperatures will cool slightly behind today's storms, with Friday and Saturday having highs in the low to upper 80s. Sunday and Monday then look to warm slightly as a weak upper- level ridge looks to move over SD.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Thunderstorms are possible during the latter half of the TAF period, with about equal chances for KMBG/KATY/KABR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.