textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers (30-50%) will track across the region this morning and continue through this evening. A few weak thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with no severe weather anticipated.

- Strong northwesterly winds return today, with gusts of 35 to potentially 45 mph, with the highest gusts over central South Dakota.

- Other then a brief warmup on Friday with highs in the 80s, cooler temperatures are expected today and again this weekend ranging in lower to mid 70s. This is about 5-10 degrees below average for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

As of 2am, radar indicates light rain is falling over portions of south central SD, tracking northeast out of Nebraska, as KPIR has reported a trace within the past hour. Current temps range in the mid 50s to the mid 60s, warmest along the eastern slopes of Coteau into western MN. By 12Z, a large upper level closed low will to be just to our north/northeast, extending along the ND/MN border into Canada. Its shortwave's axis (phasing with another shortwave from the PacNW) will extend through the central Dakotas into western NE. Through the day the low and wave will track eastward with the CWA in northwest flow by this evening. At the surface, its cold front will extend southwestward from Canada and over northern ND/MT while another surface low will be over central KS with the CWA sandwiched between these two systems. CAMs overall indicate this scattered WAA rain will continue to track northeast across the CWA through the late afternoon from this wave/southern system as it also tracks northeast. Then additional more scattered/spotty precip moves in from the northwest (associated with cold front/UL energy) by the midday over north central SD and will track eastward mainly along the northern half of the CWA through the evening. Daytime heating and weak instability will lead to the threat of a few thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening as CAPE will be under 1000 j/kg, no shear, and weak mid lapse rates. This will lead to your run of mill pulse type thunderstorms as no severe weather is anticipated. At most maybe small hail and wind gusts to 50mph if it grows vertically enough.

The tightened pressure gradient along with west/northwest flow will lead to steeper low level lapse rates to about 750/800mb over central SD by the afternoon (RAP) with the top of the mixed layer winds between 25-35kts, so not overly strong aloft, and if we can even mix this high. NBM probability of gusts>45 mph is about 45% over Corson/Dewey and 60-75% over southern Jones/Lyman Counties. However HREF/REFS are 10% or less. So went ahead and lowered the winds/gusts a bit over central SD, therefore, no Wind Headline was issued. However, this will need to be watch if winds do end up mixing better and in fact get advisory gusts for these locations. Winds will diminish overnight but still could see gusts east of the Mo River 20-25kts.

Friday a secondary low forms on the cold front over MT with this entire fropa tracking southeast over the CWA thorough Friday night. Only real chance of precip will be near the low over eastern SD/western MN Friday evening that could bring a few rain/storms, mainly east of the Sisseton Hills. Again weak instability with no severe weather expected. Winds will be breezy, closer to the low, mainly along the ND/SD border and Coteau with gusts to 30kts. High pressure will keep the weather dry and quiet for the weekend. With +PNA setup and this Canadian low parking over Ontario/Quebec, limited chances of moisture are forecast early to middle part of next week. Clusters do show the ridge breaking down and low finally dissolving end of next week, however, exact setup and timing differ between the models given several days out so low confidence this far out.

It will be quite cool today with highs only in the lower to mid 70s and lows upper 40s to upper 50s. Brief warmup Friday into the 80s to near 90 over south central SD before a cooldown with highs mainly in the 70s this weekend through early next week (thanks to this large low in Canada). This about 5-10 degrees below average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mid to high level clouds will overspread the region this morning as an upper level trough axis shifts into the western and central Dakotas. Rain chances will increase this morning and linger through the afternoon. TEMPO and PROB30 groups are in place at all terminals for these chances. Relatively light west to southwest winds early this morning will increase out of the west to northwest through the daytime hours. Peak gusts will top out around 30 kts at all airfields by late this morning through the afternoon hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.