textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued dry conditions today, with relative humidity falling to 15 to 30% and northwesterly winds gusting 35-45 mph will bring high to very high Grassland Fire Danger Index values to the region. A Red Flag Warning is in place for portions of central to northeastern SD this afternoon for ongoing warm and dry conditions combined with the gusty winds.

- A Wind Advisory is in place for northeastern SD and west central MN, mainly near the ND border for strong winds out of the northwest gusting 35 to 45 mph, with a few localized locations gusting to near 50 mph.

- Winds Thursday will be out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected. - High temperatures through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s, highest Thursday near record high temperatures are forecast Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Updated the Red Flag Warning earlier today to include the Prairie Coteau, where relative humidity is now expected to be slightly lower. Strong winds gusting 35-50mph remain east of the Missouri River.

UPDATE Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

18z Aviation discussion has been updated below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the forecast area are in the upper 40s to low 50s with northwesterly winds between 10 and 15 mph. The cold front is most of the way across the area and will continue to move southeast through the remainder of the early morning hours. With the wind gusts today and continued dry conditions, blowing dust may impact some localized areas between the MO and James Rivers today. Confidence is low on where and when this could happen.

Those same windy and dry conditions will continue the elevated fire weather concerns today and through at least the end of the work week. A Red Flag warning remains in effect for portions of central and northeast SD into west central MN from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT. Afternoon relative humidity values across the forecast area are expected to fall into the 20 to 30% range again today. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected, with localized gusts of 50 mph possible, mainly east of the MO River. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of northeast SD along the ND border for these higher wind gusts. Any fires that develop will spread easily and be difficult to contain. Wednesday looks to be less windy across most of the forecast area, but some gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible west River. These winds will spread east overnight and continue through the day Thursday, rising to 35 to 45 mph, localized gusts of 50 possible again. Friday looks to be similar.

Temperatures through the week and into the weekend will be above average with highs generally in the 70s and 80s. A low pressure system moves across the Dakotas Sunday leaving cooler air behind for Monday. This low will also bring a chance for a little rain. The chance of more than a tenth of an inch in 24 hours has increased to about 40 to 60% east of the MO River during the day Sunday with an additional 20 to 30% through the day Monday generally east of the James River.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and overnight, though some higher clouds might move in overnight for a little bit. Stronger north northwest winds will continue into the evening with sustained winds 15 to 25 kts and gusts of 25 to 35 kts and potentially even up to 45 kts at KATY. The winds should decease this evening and overnight into early Wednesday morning, where they will shift to be from the west southwest. With the stronger winds, some blowing dust has been kicking up over central and northeastern SD. If the blowing dust lines up just right, KABR and KATY could experience a slightly reduction in visibilities for a bit during the afternoon. These chances for blowing dust will decrease as the winds decrease.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ005>008. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004>011- 016>023-034>037-048-051. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.