textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats.

- A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread near-normal high temperatures (upper 70s to 80s). A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A few models are indicating patchy fog potential late tonight into early Thursday morning across the eastern CWA, so added mention of this. Most probable areas appear to be in/near the James and Big Sioux river valleys. With mostly clear skies overnight and light winds, along with wet soils, certainly not out of the question. Otherwise, no big changes to the forecast for the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

There area some low clouds over portions of central and northeastern SD this morning. The lower clouds should dissipate by the afternoon and mostly clear skies will be around during the afternoon. While there is some instability over central SD this afternoon, there is a capped environment over central and northeastern SD that should keep storms and showers from developing during the evening into tonight. Temperatures today and Thursday will be around normal for this time of the year, with highs in the 70s to 80s.

A frontal boundary will be moving into SD Thursday afternoon through the night with some warm, moist temperatures sneaking in during the day. There will be higher instability Thursday afternoon over northwestern SD, with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which will help with storm development as the frontal boundary pushes through late Thursday afternoon. During the evening, the environment for storms will weaken, with CAPE values dropping into the 1000 J/kg and even lower during the overnight hours. The storms will move east into central and northeastern SD into the weaker environment which will start to weaken the storms and cause them to dissipate. High-res models are still forecasting scattered storms to move into north central SD and some area west of the Missouri River Thursday evening before dissipating as they move east. There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for these storms to become severe over north central SD. The primary hazards in these storms will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

An upper-level ridge will be starting to develop over SD Friday into the weekend and early next week. This ridge will be pushing warm, humid air up into central and northeastern SD through the weekend and onward. Temperatures warm to be around 5-15 degrees warmer than normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Then they will increase even more Sunday and Monday to be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Heat index values will get up into the mid 90s to triple digits Sunday and Monday. There is a 30-50% chance for heat risk to reach Major category Saturday, with a 75-95% chance Sunday and Monday. There is also a 25-45% chance of the Heat Risk to get into the Extreme category Monday. Those who are sensitive to heat as well as those who lack cooling and hydration through the day could develop heat illnesses. The ridge and high pressure will also help to keep storms and showers from developing and moving into central and northeastern SD through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There could be some sub-VFR vsbys in fog at KABR/KATY (perhaps even some spotty MVFR stratus/cigs) by sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are currently forecast during the TAF period. Closer to the end of the TAF valid period, some showers/storms out west may be rolling into the KMBG/KPIR terminals. Have introduced some PROB30 mention for this potential.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.