textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain is expected, with localized areas under the heaviest showers potentially seeing above a tenth of an inch. No severe weather is expected.

- High temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal today and Friday, with highs in the 50s. Slight increase to near- normal over the weekend, with highs in the 60s to low 70s both Saturday and Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Some light rain showers over eastern South Dakota are exiting early this morning. Over the past 24 hours, MRMS estimates indicate that most area received less than a tenth of an inch, with localized areas seeing around a quarter of an inch. Similar expectations are in place for additional rain showers today, (discussed further in the paragraph below) as most areas are expected to see less than a tenth of an inch. As showers clear out this morning, high pressure to the northwest will briefly extend influence into the region before giving way to a weak low this afternoon. There is some minor signal for some fog this morning in model guidance, mainly located over south central South Dakota. Expecting near-full RH recovery this morning over that area, so wind will likely be the limiting factor for fog development this morning. At the moment expecting winds to stay just high enough (5-10 miles per hour) to disperse any developing fog. However, should a lull in winds manifest, some patchy fog may still be possible this morning.

A very similar setup to yesterday's is expected this afternoon as a jet streak in the entrance region of an upper-level trough will once again provide lift over the area and produce some light rain showers. Fairly strong low-level lapse rates also will aid in convective development in the afternoon and evening. A capping inversion in the 600-500mb layer will limit the growth of these showers, but the updraft is expected to be just deep enough to produce an isolated thunderstorm or two. MUCAPE is highest over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, leading to that area having the best chances to see lightning in the afternoon to early evening. No severe weather is expected with any thunderstorms.

Below normal temperatures (highs in the 50s to low 60s) continue for the next couple of days with the trough sitting overhead. By the weekend, the trough is expected to drift east and give roughly 10 dam of height rise over from Friday to Saturday. This will bring normal to just above normal temperatures to the forecast area, with highs reaching up into the upper 60s to low 70s. Beyond today's showers, limited chances for precipitation through the weekend barring some potential light rain developing along a cold front moving through Saturday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail during the next 24 hours. Additional -SHRA/-TSRA coverage is expected mainly between 17Z and 02Z of the TAF valid period, including some brief MVFR vsbys/cigs in heavier showers/storms this afternoon. Unlike Wednesday, boundary layer winds on Thursday will be a bit stronger (northwest winds 10 to 20 knots sustained, gusting to 25-30 knots) outside of any convectively driven wind gusts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.