textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Brisk winds and below normal temperatures will persist into the upcoming weekend.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend into the first half of next week with temperatures warming back above normal next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will return next week as gusty winds and low relative humidity values are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Brisk northwest winds have continued to persist this afternoon across most of the forecast area. Temperatures have been a function of cloud cover today. There have been more sunny breaks in the overcast to downright clearing than previously expected and that has been enough to boost temperatures into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees where sunshine has been more prevalent. Where more clouds have persisted(central SD & our far eastern zones), temperatures remained in the 30s to low 40s. After this morning's precip exited our far eastern zones around midday, another band of precip has formed across southwest/south-central SD this afternoon and has been tracking northeast toward the Pierre area and the I-90 corridor.

For the remainder of this afternoon into the evening, a couple of showers or more than likely sprinkles will be possible in those south/southwest zones and possibly stretching far enough northeast to reach parts of the James Valley. Very little if any measurable moisture will come of this activity. The local pressure gradient will remain fairly taught into this evening promoting northwest breezes to continue but some improvements are expected later this evening into the overnight. Sfc high pressure will remain centered far enough west across the Northern High Plains on Saturday and a fairly deep mixing environment will allow brisk northwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph to develop by midday and persist through the afternoon. High pressure will attempt to nudge into our region toward the end of the day so anticipate winds will fall off by either late afternoon or early evening. A cold air mass will remain in place on Saturday with 850mb temps ranging from -10C in our east to near 0C in our south and west. Highs are likely to remain in the 40s to low 50s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Short range and hi-res guidance does hint at some light precip possibilities for our northeast zones late Saturday/early Sunday with a possible back-door cold front or weak upper wave. Ensemble PoPs remain rather low for now in those areas and some expansion or increase in values may be needed if conditions turn more favorable.

Sfc high pressure will build in from the north and northeast on Sunday keeping the cooler than normal trend in place. 850mb temps will modify some but remain cool with -5C in our northeast to about +8C in our southwest. This should help central SD get back closer to normal with highs in the upper 50s to around 60s but farther east, afternoon temps will remain in the mid 40s to low 50s. As the high slips southeast of our area on Monday, we will pick up a southerly wind as shortwave ridging starts to build into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will warm back to normal if not above normal as early as Monday. With southerly winds increasing on Monday and warmer temperatures moving in, relative humidity values will fall to critical levels promoting an increase in the Grassland Fire Danger index and leading to another round of elevated fire danger concern. Longer range trends going into midweek are still leaning on warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions persisting. This may lead to additional fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday as well. With an upper trough expected to shift into the western CONUS by the middle of next week, our local trends will turn potentially more active with increasing chance for precipitation toward the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the majority of this TAF valid period with a couple of exceptions. MVFR CIGs at KMBG will continue this afternoon as a deck of strato-cu streams overhead from the northwest. It's possible some of these lower clouds will make it into the KABR aerodrome this afternoon, but have left them VFR for now. Otherwise, these lower clouds should all be gone by this evening leaving VFR conditions to prevail through the end of this forecast period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon between 25-35 knots. They will diminish to a certain extent this evening and overnight and then begin to increase again by mid to late morning Saturday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.