textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisory, High Wind Warning, and Winter Weather Advisory headlines are in place for tonight through the daytime Friday.

- Winds out of the northwest will increase and remain strong through the day Friday. Gusts 45 to 65 mph are expected across central to northeastern South Dakota, strongest over central South Dakota from mid morning Friday through the rest of the daytime hours.

- Storm total snow of a dusting to 1-3 inches is expected tonight through Friday. The strong winds and snow will result in intermittent white-out conditions.

- Strong winds return Sunday, when gusts behind a cold front may reach up to 45 mph west of the James River Valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Watching areas of moderate snow showers moving southeast across the region, with periodic visibility reductions noted in KATY around 3/4SM. There was even some lightning flashes and strikes northwest of Ashely, ND earlier this evening. Moved up the start time of the Winter Weather Advisory for some counties/segments based on activity already entering the region. Otherwise, wind speeds lining pretty well with current Wind Advisory placement over central SD. Had a brief period of 55-65+ mph gusts in the KPIR area and in other portions of central SD, but those have since subsided. For now, no changes planned to wind headline timing, with the upgrade to High Wind Warning set to begin at 06Z across central SD. Also made some adjustments to PoPs based on radar trends and went with coverage wording and changed precip type to shower instead of stratiform. Although, activity upstream across ND looks a bit more widespread light snow with embedded moderate snow showers. Will continue to monitor trends through the evening.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

High to very high grassland fire danger index values remain mainly west of the Prairie Coteau for the rest of this afternoon. Clouds are now moving overhead with winds out of the northwest gusting 25- 40mph, strongest over central SD. A few localized higher winds gusting to near 45mph have been noted over central SD.

Temperatures are mainly in the 40s, with a few 50 degree readings over south central. The surface trough has now shifted east of our counties, into MN. The primary cold front currently set up west to east over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to sink south as the 990mb low over northeastern MT moves across western Lake Superior Friday morning. Our main push of stronger winds and more steady snow will be with and behind the cold front. 850mb temperatures of around 0 to +2C at 21Z will fall to an average -5C by 03Z, with the more significant cold air advection coming in by 09Z with -7 to -12C. Surface temperatures will fall into the 20s overnight. Any light rain this evening may quickly freeze, resulting in slippery roads. The thin northwest to southeastern convective bands nature to the snow behind the cold front and through the daytime hours Friday will lead to intermittent white-out or near blizzard conditions that quickly end as the snow ends. Areas that stay in a persistent bands will not only experience prolonged reductions in visibility, but snow to liquid ratios of 15-18:1 will result in quick snowfall accumulations (that will be blowing around in the strong winds). Exact snowfall accumulations will be difficult to measure. Storm total snow amounts through Friday will range from a dusting to 1 to 3 inches, with the highest amounts over the Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to incorporate not only the snow, but the strong winds near or at Wind Advisory levels over eastern SD. Strong winds out of the northwest gusting 35 to 50 mph will increase overnight and shift a little more out of the north-northwest, with the strongest winds gusting up to 65 mph over central South Dakota during the day Friday. Wind gusts are expected to stay below 45mph across west central Minnesota through this event.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the single digits to teens by the end of the day Friday, and into the single digits below zero by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

The long term starts Saturday morning with an upper level trough over the Dakotas and the center of the low off to our east. The NAM has the center much farther east - over the Great Lakes region, while the EC, GFS, and Canadian models have the center of the low over IA. This low continues to move east through the day but we will remain in northwesterly to northerly winds as another trough moves across the area from a low moving across southern Canada for Sunday. The upper level pattern is relatively quiet for a few days after this before the EC shows a shortwave move across the region Wednesday.

With the trough Sunday, we have another chance for some snow, PoPs around 20 to 30% mainly over the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills area. This looks to be some light snow with the chance of more than an inch around or less than 15%. Blowing snow may become an issue where snow is falling or has recently fallen as wind gusts look to increase to 35-40 mph. Snow squalls may also be possible again, bringing a chance for some heavier snow and greater reduced visibility at times. The shortwave on Wednesday doesn't look to bring any precipitation with it at this time.

Temperatures during the period are looking to be much closer to normal than the last couple weeks with highs mainly in the 20s to 30s with a few colder days (highs in the single digits to teens above zero or 10-15 degrees below average). Sunday looks to be the last windy day of the period. Wind chills Saturday morning are expected to be the coldest of the period in the -20 to -30 degree range. This will cover most, if not the entire forecast area. Monday morning also looks to be fairly chilly with wind chills in the teens to about 20 degrees below zero.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SN/SN will move southeast across the region through the TAF period, with MVFR/IFR VSBY. CIGs are forecast to generally remain MVFR tonight through Friday. Strong northwest surface winds will continue to gust between 35 and 55 knots through much of the TAF period, with the strongest gusts expected across central SD affecting KPIR/KMBG.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for SDZ007-008-011- 019>023.

Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.