textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday, along with some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Still getting some random wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph out in central South Dakota with microburst from mid level showers. We also have some low topped storms, one even did a split north of Faulkton, but too low to support hail larger than 1/2 inch. Things should quiet down with loss of daytime heating. See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 418 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A shortwave/surface trough, strong winds already at the surface and daytime mixing is resulting in showers and weak thunderstorms producing winds gusting 40-60mph this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements continue to be issued. A marginal risk (winds) of severe weather remains from SPC.

While most solutions do not indicate the potential for fog, the NAM based family of models are highlighting portions of the Prairie Coteau for fog overnight into Tuesday morning. We'll continue to monitor the latest trends and add in fog if needed, especially given the light to moderate rain that will fall over the area.

There is another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Tuesday. Even with the chance of precipitation, relative humidity will be able to fall into the 25 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon. Winds out of the west will gust 20 to 25 mph, so much lighter than today.

Winds will be a concern Wednesday, gusting out of the northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. The strongest winds will be west of the James River, and mainly strongest west of the MO River. Wind headlines will be needed when the time gets closer. Unsettled weather will continue, with temperatures mainly in the 70s to low 80s through the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms move in Tuesday evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.