textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming back up to above normal values again next week. Warmest Wednesday/Thursday around 20 degrees above normal with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- There is a 30% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation Thursday night into Friday. The chance of 1" of snow or more is limited to 15% across most of west central MN and the southeastern half of SD.

UPDATE

Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Snow cover remains over much of northeastern and west central Minnesota, with dry conditions continuing over portions of central to south central South Dakota. The current surface weather map shows a 1037mb high over western Lake Superior/Upper Michigan and an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from Saskatchewan through western MT and WY.

For tonight, winds just above the surface will increase to around 35- 40kts over our downslope areas near the Prairie Coteau. However, given the less favorable wind direction, mainly out of the south, the impacts should be limited and localized. Still, winds and gusts were increased around 5kts to align with the potential for stronger gusts.

While there is precipitation in the forecast for the southern half of South Dakota Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a weak surface trough shifts across the area, extending from the WY eastern low and is assisted by a 500mb wave. There is only 20 percent chance of light rain, with little to no precipitation expected. The recent model trends have been to limit the northern movement across the forecast area. Given the dry grounds over mainly south central SD, we will continue to note any weather of interest with regards to fire concerns. Relative humidity values bottom out in the 35 to 45 percent range over central South Dakota Monday, with winds will be out of a southerly direction gusting 20 to 25 mph. Lighter winds will dominate north central South Dakota on Monday.

High temperatures will be on the increase through Thursday as the 500mb ridge builds overhead. The warmest and driest conditions Wednesday and Thursday will be over south central South Dakota where highs will be in the 50s and 60s and relative humidity values will near 25 to 35 percent. Even through temperatures will be well around 20 degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday, they will still be 10-15 degrees below record highs for this time of year.

Precipitation chances return Thursday night though Friday. This will be associated with the 500mb trough moving into the western U.S. Wednesday and diving into the 4-corners region to CO by 00Z Friday. The surface low over eastern CO Thursday afternoon will push a trough through central SD. The low will move across KS Thursday night with the trough pushing over far eastern SD/western MN, with cold air rushing in behind the low. Expect a wintry mix of rain, snow, and potentially freezing rain. At this point, the chance of freezing rain is less than 10% Thursday night through the day Friday. If the current trend holds, mainly dry weather will remain over north central SD (farther from the surface low over KS Friday that will push northeast across between eastern SD and IA by 00Z Saturday, and exit over MN/WI Friday night). There is more variability in the forecast for the weekend which now only shows up in the around 10F degree 25-75th percentiles, and variability in the sky and wind forecast. There is a consistent pattern however, with the a broad trough sinking south with a higher chance of lower temperatures for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.