textproduct: Aberdeen

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures by 15 to 25 degrees expected through Monday.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday afternoon (40-60% northern SD) with rain initially during the day, then rain/snow mix Tuesday night becoming mostly snow on Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 442 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Few changes were needed under a mostly clear sky with light winds this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue into early next week. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the sfc are expected to dominate through Sunday. High temperatures will remain 15 to 25 degrees above climo norms.

The pattern changes abruptly on Tuesday, though models are still not in full agreement on exact timing, position or strength of the sfc low and upper trough that moves into the Plains. For the moment, South Dakota may remain mostly dry until Tuesday night when a trowal sets up, but caa is minimal. So, this all may depend on timing as daytime highs appear to stay above freezing on Wednesday while overnight lows drop below freezing each night. Some mix of rain/snow is expected but details remain sketchy this far out.

The only other thing of note in the short term is the potential for some patchy fog development late tonight into Friday morning from the James valley east.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will remain light at 10kts or less through the next 24 hours. Expect VFR conditions at most locations. The exception will be over northeastern SD (ABR/ATY) where fog development is possible 08-15Z Friday. The latest trends is for less fog to move into ATY, so have kept only a TEMPO for MVFR conditions there. Fog is still expected around ABR, with MVFR to IFR visibility early Friday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.

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