textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog remains in place up on the Prairie Coteau into west central Minnesota this morning. As the cold and dry air continues to work further east toward the Minnesota border, the fog will gradually diminish, being replaced by a few hours of freezing drizzle/very light freezing rain potential over the Prairie Coteau into west central Minnesota.

- There is a 40 to 80% chance of precipitation with the system today/tonight. This morning we will have scattered/widespread showers and drizzle come up into northeast SD, with more isolated showers elsewhere. As temperatures cool through the day we transition to freezing rain and snow. Precipitation wanes this evening.

- Snow accumulations remain fairly light (dusting to about 2-3 inches), most falling along and east of a line from Pierre to Aberdeen. Freezing rain accumulations range from a light glaze to about a tenth of an inch across the northeast/western MN.

- Above freezing temperatures Saturday (Highs 40s to mid 50s). Highs Sunday 25 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances increase to 40-70 percent for Monday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 826 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

No changes planned yet to the today period forecast. Continuing to see models/guidance decreasing the duration of and amount of precipitation that falls over this CWA today into tonight. May eventually have to make some modifications to the headline, if precipitation potential continues to shift south and east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Colder air filtering down out of North Dakota/Canada also comes with stratus and fog. CAMS show the fog will migrate east and the continuous check of webcams indicate its relatively transient. Temperatures upstream are in the teens/20s on a 15 to 25kt wind while east of the front readings are in the 40s, a stark contrast for those of us up this early.

Will stick with CAMS for progression of moisture today, which has backed off on timing a bit compared to the previous forecast. There has been no freezing drizzle upstream and NAM soundings show about 3kft of saturation, ie the bare minimum, so confidence on drizzle is low at the time of this writing. Those profiles saturate up, mainly across the east as the day progresses, meaning a better environment of drizzle and with temperatures falling to near to below freezing, possibly freezing drizzle, mainly for the Sisseton hills region. Across central South Dakota profiles are more indicative of snowfall with less intermittent saturation in the dendritic growth zone after 00Z. From about 00Z to 09Z is when this systems TROWAL is best organized. With the shifts in timing, moved the winter weather advisory for Brown/Spink back in time as we are between the weather out west and the drizzle potential in the east.

The surge of colder air into the system is short lived, with 850/925mb temperatures rebounding into the single digits above zero as northwesterly flow shifts to westerly on Saturday, with high pressure moving out of the central Rockies into the Southern Plains. On the backside of this high, winds shift to southwesterly, with a gradient across the region as a clipper low moves across Canada Sunday. The core of mildest air moves overhead early Sunday morning, with a backdoor front that might clip the far northeast and west central Minnesota. We get another surge of mild air late Sunday with 850mb temperatures increasing to +10 to +14C, about a standard deviation above climatology. This is punctuated by another strong cold front associated with a clipper moving across North Dakota, and by mid-day Monday 850mb temperatures are down to the single digits either side of zero. We are then stuck in this cold airmass Tuesday and Wednesday.

As for moisture, next chance outside of the near term system is for late Monday/Tuesday timeframe with a shallow wave embedded within strong westerlies. The arctic boundary provides the focus for a band of precipitation, though at this timescale deterministic models/ensembles have wildly variable placement and temperatures. As such, NBM has a wide range in the 25th-75th ranges in snowfall (0-5 inches).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The cold front has moved east of ABR and is now nearing ATY, with winds shifting out of the north by 13Z. Fog has been common near and just ahead of the front, with improving conditions (visibility around 4SM or greater behind the front). IFR conditions will remain common at ATY through around 09Z Saturday. Light snow will be the main weather type for PIR/MBG, with a wintry mix most likely at ATY. VFR conditions will return as early as 22Z today at MBG, around 08Z Saturday at PIR/ABR, and after 12Z at ATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for SDZ008- 020>023.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for SDZ006-007- 011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.