textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system brings strong winds to the area this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts will mainly be up in the 55 to 65 mph range with stronger gusts right when the front comes through. Some of our more wind prone areas could top 75 mph. A High Wind Warning has been issued for all of central/north central and northeast SD as well as western MN.

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions in combination with the very strong winds will raise the Grassland Fire Danger into the Very High to Extreme category for this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- A strong storm system will bring snow for the weekend. The probability of exceeding 6 inches of snowfall has increased to 30 to 60% across the forecast area. Winds of 30 to 40 mph will lead to blowing/drifting snow.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures Sunday into Monday some 15 to 25 degrees below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 1104 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Made some adjustments to the forecast for the remainder of today. SPC has highlighted portions of the forecast area, from north central SD east into northeast SD and west central MN with a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon. There's a growing concern that enough instability will be generated to produce a few thunderstorms within this area of rain shower activity that will accompany the frontal passage this afternoon. Strong winds will be the primary threat, but any thunderstorm winds will augment the already synoptic scale wind that a clipper system passing to our north will generate. So, added in a mention of thunder this afternoon. Also, refreshed wind data which retained what was inherited or increased magnitudes a bit. Gusts of 60-80 mph still look very probable across most of the forecast area later this afternoon into tonight.

The other concern is for some "wrap-around" precip to come through our northeast zones tonight as the clipper low passes off into northern MN. If we do get some precip in that area, it will be cold enough for snow and combining that with the very strong winds, it could pose some hazardous wintry conditions in terms of blowing snow and reduced visibilities between about sunset and midnight. The remainder of the forecast elements for the rest of today appear to be on track. Updates have been applied and the new forecast details have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

All deterministic models have aligned closer to the GFS which has had the most continuity in regards to the clipper system that tracks from the northwest to the southeast corner of North Dakota. GFS 1/2km winds increase to around 20 to 30kts at 15Z to a pocket of 40kts+ across central South Dakota by 18Z and 45kts+ into the eastern CWA by 21Z with ultimately a core of 50 to 60kts crossing the CWA between 00Z and 06Z. The winds aloft drop rapidly thereafter by 12Z. GFS also has pressure rises of 14mb/6 hours, and a bullseye of 20mb/6 hours in North Dakota which is significant.

We will be warm advecting through at least 18Z however, which will temper mixing those stronger winds out west. The core of the warmest air is then shunted southwards with the cold front, but again the dual nature of the cold front shows up, and cold advection isn't that strong initially (through the 00Z timeframe) after which a second surge of Arctic type air comes in which will help enhance the winds. That said, the GFS (which is more mixy) BUFKIT profiles do show the mixed down tool jumping into the 60-70kt range, which is backed up by the RRFS and the ARW. With unidirectional flow aloft out of the northwest on the backside of the system, that will aid in enhancing winds at times, so some 75 mph gusts not out of the question.

CAMS are also generating these strong enhancements. The HRRR output is well past 70mph in locations backing up the above statement. The HREF likewise has some areas in north central counties with a greater than 50 percent probability of exceeding 70 mph.

Now... On to the Weekend Storm System!

Fairly good agreement exists between deterministic guidance in the progression of a Colorado low that moves mostly through Kansas and off towards Chicago. This a much less amplified system in comparison the Colorado lows that would typically give us a much longer residence time within the TROWAL, but thats not to say it won't be impactful as we're already seeing NBM totals in excess of 6 inches of snow. In fact, the 13Z and 19Z runs of the NBM have seen a significant increase over last nights forecast. Probabilities to exceed 6 inches is now up around 50 to 80 percent across portions of the CWA. During the day Saturday, probabilities for rain are a bit higher but overall a progression to all snow is expected. GFS BUFKIT profiles depict a fairly deep (approx 6kft) dendritic growth zone that makes a slow progression from around 500-600mb down to around 700- 800mb as profiles cool, and while ascent is never consistently within that zone, the long residence time means ample time for snowfall. NBM 25th-75th range in snowfall outcomes still shows quite a bit of spread, on the order of 6 inches between higher and lower potential for snowfall. Winds will also be quite strong, with GFS BUFKIT mixed tool indicating about 40kts of wind out of the northeast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Very strong surface/near-surface winds will develop from west to east across the area this afternoon and evening. West-northwest wind gusts at their peak late this afternoon and evening may exceed 60 or 65 knots. Areas of -SHRA/SHRA are also expected to move eastward through the region today, with MVFR VSBY possible at times. Periods of low-level wind shear (LLWS) possible through the period as well, but better confidence over KATY and inserted mention of this at that site. Areas of MVFR CIGs may also enter the picture towards the end of the TAF period, more so in the KATY region.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017- 033>037-045-048-051.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ006-018.

MN...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.