textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below average. Coldest temperatures will be found east of the James Valley.

- There is a 30-60% chance of light snow over central South Dakota early tonight into Thursday night. Up to 1.5 inches is expected from the Missouri Valley west.

- There is a 45-65% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 831 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Surface high pressure is over the CWA, helping to hold radar returns to virga or flurries at worst. These flurries should be ending by mid-day. No other changes to the today period, as stationary lee-of-the-Rockies surface pressure troffing continues across the central/northern high plains, including into western South Dakota.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Radar continues to show returns early this morning but it is all virga with a substantial dry layer under the high. The James Valley east remains in the sfc high through Thursday and, other than some flurries, stays dry with below normal temperatures.

Across central SD, however, a more saturated mid layer develops tonight on the western edge of the sfc high in some waa. NBM is washing out the QPF even though it now has pops in the 30 to 60 percent range, so leaned toward ConsShort and WPC QPF. Current model runs indicate up to 1.5 inches west of the James Valley with highest amounts west river in the waa band. Winds remain light, so blowing and drifting snow is not a concern with this event.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Thursday night starts the long term with some ongoing snow showers over central SD, west of the MO River. These snow showers are expected to continue through mid morning Friday. Accumulations are expected to be light with the chance of more than an inch of snowfall accumulation is a little higher than it was yesterday, at around 15%. Winds are not expected to be very strong at all so blowing snow doesn't look to be much of a concern. The next opportunity for some precipitation is Saturday. Most of the area is expected to get snow, however, temperatures in the far western portion of the forecast area look to be warm enough to support wintry mix and/or freezing rain for at least a few hours during the afternoon. Snow accumulations are highest over northeast SD into west central MN with the chance of more than an inch between 20 and 40% east of the James River. For central SD, assuming freezing rain occurs (20% chance), the chance of a hundredth of an inch of ice is between 10 and 30%, highest in far western Dewey and Corson counties. This amount of ice will make travel difficult. Precip is expected to change over to all snow Saturday evening and move east and out of the area by Sunday afternoon. There is another chance for some snow moving into the later part of the period, but accumulations look to be light at this time.

Temperatures are expected to be much closer to normal with the exception of Friday which still looks to be about 20 degrees below normal. Wind chills Friday morning are still expected to be in the - 20 to -25 degree range for areas east of the MO River. This is expected to be the coldest for the duration of the long term forecast. Saturday morning will also be cold but the coverage of -25 degree wind chills is not as expansive. Winds Saturday are expected to be the strongest of the period with some gusts up to 30 mph in eastern SD, especially around the Prairie Coteau, and could result in reduced visibilities due to blowing snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High pressure should keep things VFR through this evening at all terminals, except may KMBG. Already seeing the effects of the zone of low level warm air advection happening across portions of the western Dakotas, Wyoming and Montana. KMBG has begun bouncing in and out of an MVFR ceiling already. Later this evening, after 03Z, sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities in light snow will start overspreading central and north central South Dakota, including the KMBG and KPIR. Light snow should begin tapering off by mid-day Thursday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.