textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. There is a 30 to 60% chance of 1" of snow or more, mainly over north central and portions of northeastern South Dakota.

- Another round of light accumulating snow will be possible Wednesday with a 20-60 percent chance for seeing at least 1 inch or more of snow for north central and northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Gusty northwest winds develop on Wednesday ranging from 25-45 mph with the strongest winds expected across central South Dakota. Blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be possible.

- Very cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will be possible Thursday through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1022 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Lowered daytime highs a couple of degrees today. Winds have shifted to the west and there is likely to be some weak waa with height rises, but fresh snow cover and lack of mixing will moderate it.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Main concern for today will be arctic air mass in place with temperatures running about 5-15 degrees below average for highs and about 5-10 degrees below average James Valley and eastward late tonight for lows. Otherwise, another clipper will skirt over the region Tuesday bringing another round of light snow. High pressure continues to filter in from the northwest early this morning and will be dominant over the region, tracking southeast through the day. At the same time a northwest to southeast stationary frontal boundary sits off to our west/southwest over the Rockies. Another high will move in this evening through the overnight. This high moving in this morning will continue to diminish winds through 12Z with overall wind speeds by this afternoon between 5-15 mph, with our far western CWA getting up to 20 mph. Winds will be mainly calm overnight. Continuing in the northwest flow aloft, our next shortwave will track southeast out of western Canada and over the Upper Rockies/Northern Plains Tuesday morning/midday, with the axis of the slightly positive shortwave over the Northern Plains by Tuesday evening.

This wave will bring the return of light snow with CAMS indicating this precip moving in over north central SD around ~12Z per RAP/HRRR Tuesday (other CAMs are an hour or two later), tracking southeastward across the CWA through Tuesday afternoon/evening (Bit of a difference on exact time it exits our southeastern CWA). NBM highlights this well and have increased pops with the latest run with pops of 50-70%, highest over north central SD and southeastward through Watertown area. NBM QPF amounts are a few hundredths less than WPC. So with collab, did a 50/50 blend the both, which matches closer to the HREF, up to about 0.10". Looking at soundings over north central, much of the lift and saturated column is within the DGZ zone (lower column closer to surface a bit below it) which gives higher confidence on the NBM snow ratios of 15-17:1, indicating snow will be light and fluffy. Snow amounts are forecast to range from a trace to around an inch, with probability of an inch or more at 30- 60%, highest over north central SD and portions of northeastern SD. Probability of snowfall of 2" is less than 10%. Luckily 850mb winds with this first wave will not be nearly as strong (30-40kts over central SD by the late afternoon) with wind gusts at the surface 20kts or less, highest west of the Mo River. So kept winds/gusts straight NBM. Latest BLSN model really does not show much in the way of drifting or blowing snow at this time.

With this arctic air mass, highs for today will range in the single digits above zero to the lower 20s, with the coldest temps east of the James River. Wind chills by noon will still run in the single digits to teens below zero James Valley and eastward. With winds switching southerly west of the Mo late tonight, temps will not get as cold here with overall temps across the CWA in the single digits below zero to the single digits above zero, again coldest James Valley and eastward and warmest west of the Mo River. Wind chills are forecast to range in the single digits to teens below zero east of the Mo River, coldest over the Coteau. As winds turn more southerly across the rest of the CWA for Tuesday, temps will be slightly warmer in the teens to lower 20s east of the Mo River and 20s to lower 30s west of here.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

This period begins Tuesday night and early Wednesday with a departing shortwave trough and associated sfc low pressure system and cold front to our southeast. Our forecast area will find itself in between systems during this time but it will be brief. The next upper trough is progged to dig southeast across the Dakotas on Wednesday dragging another strong cold front through the area and increasing potential for accumulating snow. NBM probabilities of seeing at least 1 inch or greater of snowfall Wednesday range from 20-60 percent with the highest probs in a swath from north central SD into northeast SD and west central MN. Increasing winds will accompany this system. Guidance progs the timing of the fropa to during the morning and midday hours on Wednesday. Strong northwest winds are expected to develop during that time and persist through the end of the day. NBM wind probs for seeing wind gusts in excess of 45 mph or Wind Advisory criteria range from 50-90 percent and that's mainly located across our SD zones. The highest of these probs are situated along and west of the James Valley. The forecast area will likely experience another bout of blowing snow and reduced visibilities on Wednesday, especially in areas that do see falling snow or recently fallen snow.

In the wake of the fropa on Wednesday, models prog the flood gates to open to the arctic. A strong 1040+mb sfc high pressure system looks to begin building into the Dakotas the latter half of Thursday with strong cold air advection and plummeting temperatures into the teens below zero Thursday night into Friday. If there's any bit of wind in place, wind chill values could fall into a 25 below to nearly 40 below range. Probabilities of seeing air temperatures colder than 15 degrees below zero range from 50-80 percent from parts of north central SD eastward into the James Valley and the rest of northeast SD and west central MN. This potential arctic outbreak could persist for at least a few days right into the upcoming weekend. By late in the period, or early next week, temperatures may start to slowly modify but still remain below normal for late January.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.