textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility at times across the region through Tuesday evening.

- Less intense heat but temperatures still 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

UPDATE for AVIATION discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across central SD this evening. Other than gusty winds west river, most of this activity has been disorganized and sub-severe. Cannot rule out an isolated gust to 60 mph as any of these showers collapse, but not expecting widespread severe wind gusts at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Have some smoke aloft over the region as shown by CIRA Geocolor imagery. Not much impact at the surface though, as much of the region is P6SM visibility. Latest run of HRRR-smoke continues to show moderate concentrations of smoke aloft and at the surface through Tuesday evening, so continued mention of it in the grids/forecast.

Temperatures this afternoon are warming through the upper 80s to upper 90s. Latest look at heat indices shows everyone under 100 degrees, which was expected. Although, there will likely be a few areas at 100 or even a couple ticks above by later this afternoon. Areal coverage won't be widespread enough to warrant any headlines. Still a couple more days of the widespread 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, before a slight cooldown to where more 80s show up for highs by the last half of the week.

Main concern for later this afternoon into early evening is the increasing coverage of showers/storms expected across western SD and eventually into central SD. Radars upstream show activity moving out of northeast WY/southeast MT and into far western SD. CAMs continue to show development over the next few hours, especially the HRRR. Opted to blend in some ECAM feel to PoPs this evening/tonight to increase things just a little above that of NBM - better matching HRRR trends. DCAPE values look to be around 1500 J/KG once again, so strong wind gusts/outflows is the primary threat, with gusts perhaps up to 70-75 mph.

Latest run of PoPs in the extended period shows precipitation chances as high as 60-80 percent for Thursday/Thursday night. GEFS/ENS/GEPS mean MSLP and mean 10m wind speeds/direction all show a rather well defined surface boundary/trough moving across the CWA during that time. ENS/GEPS mean dewpoints Thursday out ahead of the frontal boundary show readings up around 70 degrees with PWATS on the order of 1.80in to 1.90in. So, it would be safe to say we likely develop some instability out ahead of the surface trough. ML severe potential output showing some lower end probabilities for Thursday into Thursday night. 75th percentile 24-hr precipitation off the Grand Ensemble showing as much as 0.75in rainfall or higher.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. 6SM visibility with smoke will be possible at PIR over a majority of the next 24 hours, through much of the daytime hours at MBG, with less concentrated smoke at both ABR and ATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.