textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog may develop overnight into Friday morning. Some of if may become dense, reducing visibility to less than one half mile.

- Temperatures remain rather chilly on Friday, near to as much as 5 degrees below normal for early November.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday will warm up to 5 to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming partly sunny across portions of central/north central South Dakota, but remain cloudy/overcast across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. Winds are out of the north-northeast 5 to 15 mph with some occasional higher gusts and temperatures where it's cloudy are mainly in the 30s to low 40s. The very far southwestern corner of the CWA is sunny, and temperatures there are in the mid 40s to low 50s this afternoon.

The forecast is dry throughout the entire 7-day forecast, thanks to upper level ridging dominating the steering flow winds aloft for the majority of the forecast period. Surface high pressure over the region means winds go light and variable tonight, resulting in some fog potential, if the low clouds go away allowing for maximum radiation cooling. Short term ensemble guidance is highlighting central and north central South Dakota with the best chance for fog tonight into Friday morning (~50-70% chance for visby less than 1 mile).

Temperatures will be near normal on Friday. But the low level thermal advection pattern is still forecast to transition to a WAA pattern Friday afternoon/evening which persists through the weekend. Warmer (above normal) temperatures then look to hold through the middle of next week, despite one or more frontal passages that temporarily swing winds around to the west-northwest.

Currently, one such frontal passage appears to align with Saturday/night. Post frontal winds Saturday into Saturday night could become blustery at times, particularly across the northern or northeastern half of the CWA, with speeds potentially increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph not out of the question. Beyond Saturday/night, wind speeds appear to behave themselves throughout most of the 7-day forecast. On the fire weather forecast side of things, afternoon relative humidity values on Saturday may dip down to a range from ~40 percent to 50 percent when those stronger winds are happening. Current Grassland Fire Danger Index values top out in the moderate to high range for Saturday. Monday could also see some lower afternoon relative humidity values. Otherwise, the rest of the 7-day forecast appears to hold higher afternoon relative humidity values.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR stratus is over all four terminals at this time. Timing of improvement is uncertain across central/north central SD. Leaning optimistic that things will improve to VFR at, at least, the KPIR and KMBG terminals between 18Z and 00Z this evening. KABR/KATY are expected to remain in the MVFR/IFR stratus through tonight, and probably the first half of Friday as well. Surface high pressure over the region will recenter ever so slightly east of its current position later tonight, allowing for a light south to southeast wind to develop, along with slight pressure falls. Guidance is supportive of fog development later tonight due to light wind and radiational cooling clear skies across central and north central South Dakota (KPIR/KMBG) as well as along the eastern slope of the Prairie Coteau (upslope/terrain fog). But, at this time, Prairie Coteau fog is not expected to be all that impactful to KATY terminal operations.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.