textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperature trends through midweek will feature above normal values for late March with daytime reading in the 60s and 70s.

- Strong northerly winds return early Thursday behind a cold front. Gusts are expected to peak at 30 to 45 miles per hour. The strong winds will also cause elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures will persist for Thursday and Friday with readings near to slightly below normal for both daytime highs and overnight lows. A quick rebound back above normal temperature trend will return as early as Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Mostly cloudy skies have once again been the rule today across the forecast area. There have been more breaks developing in the overcast this afternoon. Clouds have once again had an effect on the temperature climb earlier today, but now with some more sunny breaks, readings have responded closer to expectations. As lee cyclogenesis takes place across the Northern High Plains of MT/WY this evening, our winds will become more south-southeast. Low level thermal advection translates into a warmer air mass being pulled north into the area overnight. There's some indication that dPVA will be advecting through parts of the Dakotas after midnight. A few CAMs, including the HRRR are generating some shower activity across our northern tier of zones through the early morning hours. However, a look through BUFKIT soundings indicate an increase in mid to high level moisture with a deep sub-cloud dry layer. So, would expect virga if anything were to materialize and a dry forecast will be maintained at this time.

Sfc low pressure and an attendant warm front will shift across the forecast area on Wednesday. Mid level ridging building east off the Rockies into the Plains and low level warm advection across this CWA will lead to the warmest day of the week. We should get into a decent mixing pattern during the afternoon. 850mb temperatures are progged to reach +10C to near +15C across the eastern half of the forecast area and +15C to perhaps near +20C across our western half. This should translate well into daytime highs reaching the 60s to low 70s in most locations. Locales in those western zones will have a better chance of seeing the mid to upper 70s. The one caveat, which there is low confidence in, is that cloud cover may remain thick enough to eat into the sfc warming potential. HREF ens mean cover is progged to be much thinner compared to what we experienced Monday and today so far. So, this all could be a non-factor in thermal projections. With that weak low pressure/sfc troughing moving through the CWA on Wednesday, not expecting winds to be overly aggressive with a light/variable pattern early becoming more westerly and increasing a bit during the afternoon. However, with the dry conditions present and the warm temperatures expected, high grassland fire danger is expected across most of central and northeast SD.

Unfortunately, a significant change is then expected late Wed/early Thu. Model guidance continues to show good agreement on a strong cold front making it's passage through the CWA around 06Z Thu across our north and around 09Z in our southern zones. An abrupt shift in winds to the north are expected. Guidance progs an 8-10mb/3hr pressure bubble punching through the area during those early morning hours of Thursday. Cold air advection behind this boundary will take over but guidance doesn't seem as quite bull'ish on the intensity of this compared to 24 hours ago. Still, it should be substantial enough to see a couple bouts of this sharper cold air intrusion. The first with this initial push early Thursday and the second with a secondary cold front during the latter half of the afternoon into the evening. NBM probabilities of seeing wind gusts to Wind Advisory criteria(45 mph) range from about 30-60 percent. These values figure on the conservative side though, so the potential still remains that an Advisory headline could be needed for this event. Post-frontal mid level energy rotating across mainly ND into NW MN will still pose a 20-40 percent chance for precip across our northern tier of zones, mainly along and north of US Hwy 212 as it looks at this point. Temps remain warm enough for rain to be the dominant p-type initially, but colder air will begin to filter in with time, so can't rule out a more brief period of a rain/snow mix or light snow. ENS p- type meteograms do indicate a low probability of frozen p-types at some locales across our north/northeastern zones. With the strong winds during the daytime Thursday persisting and dry sfc conditions, high to very high grassland fire danger will be a possibility. The one thing that will help fire weather concerns will be the cooler temperatures that will drive minimum RH values down to only as low as 35-40 percent. So, not anticipating Red Flag Warning conditions to develop.

The colder air mass is progged to remain in place through the end of the work week with daytime readings in the 40s to perhaps as warm as the low 50s. Some locales may not get out of the upper 30s, especially on Thursday. Temps in the teens will be possible going into Friday morning, which is a good 10 degrees colder than normal for late March. Fortunately, we'll see a quick rebound in temperatures in time for the upcoming weekend with readings expected back into the 50s and 60s on Saturday and 60s and 70s on Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through this TAF cycle. Mid to high level cloudiness will continue to shift across the region the remainder of today and into tonight and Wednesday. Should finally start to see a thinning of these clouds toward the end of this forecast period. Winds will become more southeasterly by the end of today into tonight before turning more southwest to northwest toward the end of this current TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.