textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Sprinkles/flurries or very light rain/snow potential lingers for a few hours this evening. Water equivalent amounts very light and remaining under 0.10in for most areas.

- Chances for precipitation (20-40%) Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence on precipitation type is low.

SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 106 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are mostly cloudy to overcast and winds are out of the north. A cold front has slid completely out of the CWA (now south of the area), but temperatures have not started cooling down yet. In fact, they have warmed up into the 40s across most of the region.

Tonight, there could still be areas of sprinkles or very light rain occurring early this evening mainly across the southern/southeastern half of the CWA, before the lingering low/mid-level zone of forcing attached to this recent cold fropa now south of the CWA and mid- level lift attached to the circulation working through the region departs. Surface high pressure will be building down across the region. Enough low level CAA should be glancing the eastern third of forecast zones sufficiently enough that low level lapse rates steepen to a point where some gusts 25 to 30 knots will be possible.

The surface high eventually settles in over Minnesota late in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night, allowing for low level return flow southerly winds to develop across the CWA Tuesday night.

Overall, though, even with low level CAA tonight into Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to be near to above normal for early February.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 106 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

During the day on Tuesday, the steering flow splits into two along the west coast. By late Wednesday night, energy emerges out of this split flow pattern and is progged to move out across the central/northern plains. There could be some precipitation from this low pressure system extending up into eastern South Dakota (the southeastern forecast zones of this CWA). Right now, the probability of 0.05 inches or more of water equivalent precipitation over those southeastern forecast zones is 20-35%. So, not a ton of confidence in precipitation chances for this scenario right now. And, if precipitation does materialize, it looks like it would not be all that much.

The rest of the period contains details of how the atmosphere kicks out that split flow pattern east-southeast over the CONUS and replaces it with a west-coast upper level longwave trof. Over this CWA, that should translate into a period of dry conditions under west-northwest flow aloft that eventually flattens out into zonal flow over the weekend, before gradually taking on that southwest flow look-and-feel at the end of the period as the west coast upper level longwave trof establishes.

During the extended period, not seeing any significant cold air intrusions. There will be a few periods of weak WAA/CAA oscillation, but overall, it looks like temperatures should remain on the mild side through early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Tuesday. A few areas of -RA/sprinkles (at KABR) or even -RASN (at KMBG) are possible this afternoon through late this evening. Will handle this with PROB30 groups. Overnight, breezy 15 to 20 knot north- northwest winds, including gusts potentially up to 30 knots, are expected to develop primarily across northeast South Dakota (KABR/KATY) into west central Minnesota, persisting into the day on Tuesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.