textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Just slightly below normal temperatures today, with a steady warmup through the weekend into next week. Highs Sunday through most of next week some 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Dry conditions through mid week next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Upper trough/low over the eastern CONUS with a weak ridge aloft across the eastern Rockies into the High Plains to start off the forecast for today. Northerly flow aloft directing cooler air into the region, with a west to east thermal gradient across the Dakotas/Minnesota. As high pressure makes a slow retreat to the east, increased southeasterlies thanks to about 14mb gradient across the state. That gets to about 20mb by Saturday morning, so winds to remain up tonight. This also means that upslope flow stratus in the far western CWA also to remain in place.

For Saturday night/Sunday, a trough coming in across the Rockies but is in the process of weakening. This appears to be a split flow type situation, with the primary wave within this flow regime moving across the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains, with another wave moving across southern/central Canada. Thus, limited weather impact with this feature aside from just a slight weakening of the gradient, down to around 12-14mb across the state, although oriented more southwest to northeast and thus winds out of the due south. Not a massive or substantial warmup aloft, but milder for Sunday with 850mb temperatures up to around +4 to +8C... which is approaching a standard deviation above climo. NBM temperatures are topping out around 10 to 15F above climo in response.

So the weakening upper trough moves overhead late in the day/overnight Sunday so little more than some scattered mid/high clouds. Without a surface reflection, low level flow remains persistent into Monday/Tuesday. Peak 'heat' is supposedly Monday, with a slight decrease in temperatures aloft Tuesday with a southwest flow shortwave lifting out ahead of the next broader upper wave, but moisture with this feature is up around 200-300mb and 850mb temperatures are still a standard deviation above climo.

Focus shifts to a low that moves across the area Wednesday as the upper trough likewise lifts up across the area. With the moisture on the northern and western portions of the low, focus area for most QPF is up across North Dakota. The lower ranges of ensembles is down around zero for moisture, with the 75th percentile up around 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch along the ND/SD state line. Thus, a slight wiggle southwards would slightly improve our chances for moisture.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening. Southeast winds increase across central SD by afternoon with gusts to 30 kts at KPIR and KMBG.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.