textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Low pressure will continue to circulate over the area bringing a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Highest chances for rainfall will be today through Thursday night where much of the area has a 60-90 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms.

- Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days include a widespread 1-2 inches across most of the area with localized amounts of more than 2 inches.

- Drier conditions and seasonal temperatures are expected to return this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

As of 2 PM CDT, showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue across the region. These are expected to continue through the end of the work week. The heaviest rainfall amounts will be through tonight. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s around and west of the Missouri River, and a little warmer to the east, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally out of the northeast.

Tonight, the upper level portion of the low pressure system currently over our area will be over western SD while the lower portion will be over more central SD. This low will continue to circulate over the area through the end of the work week. The low weakens into a trough late Friday into Saturday, continues to move east through the end of the weekend and some much drier air moves in from the north. Clusters show an upper level ridge moving in Monday and continuing to move east through the end of the period. Down in the lower levels models are showing a low pressure system move across the forecast area Tuesday, although exact placement varies.

Showers and thunderstorms continue through the end of the work week as this low continues to circulate over the area. The heaviest rain is expected through tonight as models are showing a dry slot form on the eastern side of the low Thursday morning and as we lose some of our forcing. As for totals, NBM is showing the probability of more than 2 inches in 72 hours (ending Saturday morning) as 45-70% west river. East of the Missouri River, the better probability is for 1 inch at around 70-80% for that same 72 hours. WPC has put a slight risk of excessive rainfall over western and central SD, highlighting the risk of local flooding due to heavy rain (PWAT values in the 97.5th NAEFS percentile). As the trough moves off, some showers could linger into Saturday, even Sunday depending on speed of the trough.

Temperatures the next few days will be a little cooler due to cloud cover, but not too much cooler since we also have some WAA on the east side of this low. Highs this weekend are expected to warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s. Models are showing an area of CAA Monday which will cool our temperatures just a little and these cooler highs look to continue into mid-week. Winds may be a little stronger Monday as we get that CAA, but not too much stronger.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A low pressure system spinning over the area continues to bring low level moisture with the highest concentration of rain and coverage over central South Dakota. This rain has resulted in ongoing lowering of ceilings. We still have the chance for weak thunderstorms, mainly at KPIR and KATY, through this evening. Fog is also a possibility due to this increased moisture with the lowest visibilities from fog to be along the Coteau and at KATY late tonight and into Thursday morning, where visibilities could drop to 1/2sm. Expect period of rain to continue through Thursday and lowering of ceilings at times.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.