textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an Enhanced (3 of 5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon through tonight over much of the region. Main hazards will be large hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Friday afternoon through Saturday morning over much of the region. Main hazards will be large hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-75 mph.

- Smoke from wildfires across the Western U.S. and Canada will continue to remain mostly aloft through at least late Friday.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as 10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s between late this week through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Early morning convection across north central SD rolled east across the ND/SD border through about midday and produced a fairly substantial outflow boundary that has progressed southeastward across the CWA during the mid to late morning hours. We saw some initial convective shower and t-storm development along and to the north of this boundary late this morning. More robust convection kicked off along the southwestern flank of this outflow across parts of central SD(north of Pierre) which was short-lived. Now, more numerous convection is breaking out across parts of south central SD and in the Pierre and Fort Thompson area.

A seasonably warm and humid air mass will remain in place across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Broad southwest mid level flow across the Dakotas contains multiple shortwave troughs. In addition to the aforementioned sfc outflow boundary, a stationary front is draped west to east across parts of central/southern SD with a lee of the Black Hills sfc cyclone attendant to this front across southwest/south central SD. Strong sfc heating through the afternoon will lead to atmospheric destabilization with MLCAPE values ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg. RAP13/NAM12 depict a couple areas of strongest instability developing across our southern zones, basically along and south of U.S. Hwy 212 as well across across portions of north central SD. MLCAPE values in those areas may reach the 3500-4000 J/kg range. Deep layer shear magnitudes of 35-45 kts and steep mid level lapse rates are progged to help contribute to further convective development with time through the afternoon. This is what we are already seeing signs of in the Pierre area early this afternoon.

SPC continues to highlight our forecast area with an Enhanced (3 of 5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather mainly during the mid afternoon hours through early Friday morning. Initial storm mode favors discrete cells that form in the vicinity of these sfc boundaries and move off said boundary toward the east-northeast. Initial hazards will be large hail and tornadoes. However, with time a more significant wind threat will develop as storms coalesce, potentially forming an MCS type structure with bowing line segments that will be capable of producing severe wind gusts up to 75 mph or stronger. With shear vectors running nearly parallel to the sfc boundary and increasing dew point depressions, outflow dominant convection will be favored with time that will support this severe wind threat. Can't rule out locally heavy rainfall with any of this convection as weak flow will lead to slower moving storms and some locales being affected by multiple cells over time. Areas that have seen decent rains lately and that are saturated will be susceptible to localized flooding. These threats will persist through the evening into the early overnight hours before conditions start to settle down early Friday morning.

Early Friday morning convection will be possible across our southern and eastern zones with that activity shifting out of our area by mid morning. We'll reset the mechanisms so to speak for Friday afternoon and Friday night with much of the aforementioned thermodynamic environment parameters returning to our forecast area. SPC has highlighted our forecast area with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather mainly for Friday afternoon through Friday night. Much the same severe hazards will be in play once again with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Can't rule out a tornado either, but probabilities for that activity look to be confined closer to the SD/NE border. Convection is anticipated to push across our eastern zones through the overnight hours into early Saturday and perhaps could linger there through at least Saturday morning. Then, we should start to calm down with drier conditions taking hold by the latter half of Saturday through the end of the weekend. Wildfire smoke aloft is progged to continue across the region through at least the end of the day Friday, so when we aren't clouded up from thunderstorm activity, a hazy type sky can be expected. The hot and humid conditions are expected to persist through the end of the week and the holiday weekend into the first half of next week. High temperatures will likely remain in the mid 80s to low 90s for the next several days and with dew point temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees, overnight lows will only cool into the 60s overnight.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main concerns for all terminals will be convection and potential for severe wind gusts and severe hail through the remainder of today into tonight. VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals with temporary reduced cigs/vsbys if any storms cross through any of the aerodromes. Winds will generally remain east to southeasterly through the next 24 hours potentially gusting up to 25 kts at times with any storm that affect the 4 terminals capable of producing much stronger gusts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.