textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and more humid conditions return today, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures increase further on Saturday, where highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures are 15-25 degrees above normal for this time of year.

- Strong southerly winds gusting up to 25 to 35 miles per hour will be in place over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota Saturday afternoon. Localized gusts of 45 miles per hour will also be possible in that area. The strong wind and heat will create elevated fire weather concerns over that area, as well as over parts of central South Dakota.

- Pattern changes to cooler temperatures Saturday night into Sunday, along with increasing chances for rain next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The main concern over the next couple of days will be warm temperatures and strong winds contributing to fire weather concerns for the next couple of days. Starting with the winds today, a tightening pressure gradient stemming from a low pressure center to the northwest will increase southerly winds today, particularly along the Missouri River. In that area, gusts may reach up to 30-35 miles per hour, while elsewhere gusts up to 25-30 miles per hour will be present. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s over much of the area, but up into the mid 80s over parts of central South Dakota. These temperatures are about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Generally not expecting any records to be set today despite the abnormal warmth, although Pierre and Aberdeen are both within 5 degrees of their daily record highs.

Saturday will see further warm air advection into the region, partially coming in the form of a 40-50 knot low-level jet. The warm air advection will push 850mb temperatures as high as 25-26 Celsius over much of the area, which is both about 10 degree increase from Friday and 10 degrees above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Naturally, this will provide a further warmup to the area, and temperatures closer to the NBM 90th percentile can be expected under the clear sky, warm air advection regime. This will push highs into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the forecast area. Even with this significantly abnormal heat, record highs are still a few degrees above the current forecast at most sites, with the exception of Watertown forecast to break their record of 86 degrees. The aforementioned low-level jet will be mainly over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota by Saturday afternoon when gusts will be able to mix to the surface. Generally expecting 25-35 miles per hour once again, although this time the area of focus for these higher winds will be from Brown and Spink Counties and east. However, wind will be coming from a favorable direction to induce downslope winds off the Prairie Coteau, and gusts as high as 45 miles per hour may be possible on the eastern side of the Coteau. At this point can't rule out the potential for a limited-area Wind Advisory Saturday afternoon, although nothing will be issued with this forecast package. The wind and heat combination will cause elevated fire weather concerns over much of the area. Over the northeast with the strongest winds, minimum humidity in the afternoon will drop between 25-35 percent, so right on the borderline of the 25 percent criteria for a Red Flag Warning. Parts of central South Dakota may also need a Red Flag Warning, as humidity will drop below 20 percent west of the Missouri River, which combines with gusts of 25 miles per hour. All this to say, watch out for potential headlines with future forecast packages.

The next chances for rain will come on Monday. A small shortwave disturbance accompanied by some divergence aloft will produce these showers, but the lack of any strong forcing mechanism will keep rain rates fairly low. Expect the majority of the rain to fall over north central South Dakota, perhaps extending into northeastern South Dakota along the border with North Dakota. Latest NBM probabilities to see a tenth of an inch through Monday night range from 10-40% across the forecast area, increasing as you move from southeast to northwest. Model soundings over far north central South Dakota do show some borderline potential for a profile cold enough to carry frozen hydrometeors into the lower levels or perhaps the surface, but this would most likely be an edge case. Even if some flurries are able to fall, chances for sub-freezing surface temperatures are less than 10 percent, so should this edge case come to be, these flurries would almost certainly melt upon contact with the surface.

Looking ahead to mid-week, ensemble clusters show a decent level of agreement (~62% of total members) in a pattern that would develop a Colorado Low up into the Northern Plains. This will bring the next chances for precipitation into the region, although there is still a high degree of spread in totals at this point. Heaviest rainfall is currently expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and near- surface low temperatures during that period will remain in the 40s so all rain can be expected. The same can't be said with as much certainty on the tail end of the event, as parts of the Aberdeen forecast area have a 10-30% chance for overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning to reach below freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. South to southeast surface wind gusts will reach 20 to 30 kts by mid day. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will become a concern across the region this evening/tonight and have inserted mention of this into all TAF sites.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.