textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A few flurries will be possible tonight with a 30-60 percent chance for light snow on Saturday across central South Dakota.

- A couple of chances for precipitation may be materializing next week on Tuesday (20-30 percent chance) and then again on Thursday and Friday (25-50 percent chance). Moreso a rain eventually becoming snow scenario on Tuesday versus a mainly snow scenario on Thursday and Friday. And, with both potential events, strong northwest winds, including gusts in excess of 40 mph, are a concern.

- Except for high temperatures generally in the teens and 20s on Saturday, above normal temperatures are forecast during most of the 7-day forecast, with at least 30s and 40s expected for highs.

UPDATE

Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Light precipitation has been noted on the radar and webcams east of Aberdeen. The potential for precipitation has been continued for eastern SD/west central MN past 00Z. Otherwise the forecast remains on track at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mostly cloudy skies have dominated the weather trends most of the day across most of the forecast area. However, there's been some sunny breaks from time to time, especially across central SD. A sfc trough is currently pushing across our eastern zones and it may be kicking up a few stray flurries, however it's battling dry air in the low levels so the moisture is remaining aloft and not reaching the sfc. And, this more or less will be the trend going into this evening.

A cold front poised just to our northwest is progged to push south into the forecast area later today into tonight. It's all part of an upper trough and associated 500mb low that guidance projects will track southeast into the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains tonight into Saturday. Again, a few flurries could be possible as these features move through the area, but moisture remains limited or aloft so not anticipating anything noteworthy to occur in terms of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will begin to filter in overnight and remain a staple through the first half of the weekend. The aforementioned sfc front will be shunted south and west into central and western portions of SD on Saturday and become parallel to northwest flow aloft. With a baroclinic zone setting up and an incoming jet streak into the western and central Dakotas and increasing moisture in the mid to low levels of the atmosphere will generate a period of light snow showers or flurries across central SD through the day. It doesn't look to be an all day type snowfall, but more intermittent or periodic with minor accumulations possible at best. NBM probabilities of seeing more than 1 inch of snowfall are low at about 10-20 percent and mainly confined to our west river zones and south of US Hwy 14. Overall, snowfall will remain under 1 inch for most locales. A brisk northwest wind does develop during the day, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. This in combination with temperatures in the teens to low 20s will result in wind chill values in the single digits either side of zero at times through the day.

High pressure will settle over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. It'll be a chilly start for some, especially east Sunday morning with lows in the single digits above zero. However, as the high slips east, return flow sets up and a warm front shifts into the central Dakotas. As weak upper ridging develops, temperatures will modify back above normal as a warm air advection pattern begins to set in. This pattern will spill over into Monday and Tuesday as confidence remains high with guidance showing 2m temperature anomalies 15-25 degrees above normal and the EFI/SoT Max T indices Monday into Tuesday indicate a very unusual to extreme warming event. Our current forecast low temps Monday night currently sit around 10 degrees above our normal high temperatures for that date. We could see record warm lows for some locations Tuesday morning. As far as precip chances go, a weak system is progged to move through the region late Monday into Tuesday with perhaps just rain showers as temperatures will be warm enough. Another disturbance will be possible late next week that could return our area to more winter like conditions will a chance for snow and colder temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected over much of the period. The exception is at ATY initially with some light precipitation, and then at PIR from 12-21Z. Confidence is low on precipitation occurring, so PROB30s has been included in both instances.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.