textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Small chances (15-30%) for thundershowers through tonight across portions of the region. Severe storm chances are very low.

- Generally dry conditions Thursday through Saturday. Rain chances (20-40%) return to the forecast Saturday night, then on and off chances into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A stationary front across western SD earlier this morning is forecast to eventually make its way eastward across the CWA as a weak warm front. South-southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph overnight should prevent lows from dropping below 60 degrees for many areas.

On Thursday, a weak cold front will drop southeast through the area with winds switching to the northwest. Ahead of this front, there remains just a slight chance (20% or less) for a shower or thunderstorm mainly over the northern CWA overnight. MUCAPE values early this evening are generally around 750 J/KG or less, with around 30 kts or so of effective shear. CAMs showing pretty sparse coverage of showers/storms this evening, which can be seen nicely in HREF ensemble paintball product. One thing to note for late this afternoon, there are a couple CAMs trying to build up some shower activity between the James and Missouri rivers, which currently is uncapped with about 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. Although, mid-level lapse rates are rather weak. Will watch for any building cumulus fields in this area over the next several hours and adjust PoPs if necessary. For now, will add just some slight chances (15%) for that area.

On Thursday, winds will be from the northwest in the post- frontal/trough air mass. Blended in only about 20-25% of the NBM90 for winds across the eastern CWA as it appears to be on the breezy side with gusts around 20-25 kts. Surface high pressure then looks to build into the region Friday night into Saturday, which should keep conditions dry.

Chances for rainfall return to the forecast for the latter half of the weekend. Southerly low-level flow at the surface up through 850mb develops across central SD, with moisture increasing as well. Weak wave moving into the region with a surface trough may bring increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Inherited PoPs generally feature 30-40% chances over central SD during said time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Had one shower form over KMBG a little while ago. There could be a couple more showers or weak thunderstorms, mainly at/near the KMBG terminal between now and sundown. Probability is pretty low. Will amend to add short-lived precipitation this evening as needed.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.