textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High temperatures will peak Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota).

UPDATE

Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

To the east and west we are picking up some light returns, though ceilings across the region are generally 8-12kft overtop a deep dry and mild layer. Will add sprinkles. See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

We're starting out early this afternoon with a 1005mb surface low over south western to south central SD. At 500mb, there is a broad low-amplitude ridge set up across the central U.S., with bookend troughs across the Pacific and Atlantic. The 500mb ridge will build across the Plains States through Thursday in response to the low digging south across off the west coast.

Expect the surface low to our south to hug the SD/NE border and exit across IA and southern MN this evening. An additional slightly weaker low over western ND will also exit east, dragging a weak cold front across our area overnight in advance of a large surface ridge sinking in from Canada. The cooler air moving in will knock a few degrees off the highs Tuesday, into the 20s for northeastern SD. The surface ridge will also exit across MN Tuesday afternoon- evening as another trough sets up to our west.

After Tuesday, temperatures will slowly rise through Thursday, when highs are expected to top out in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota). Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be withing 5-10 degrees of record highs for Pierre and Watertown. Record highs this time of year are generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Normal highs are in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees.

The ENS visibility meteograms continue to hint at the potential for significant low level moisture - particularly for the I-29 corridor from Watertown to Sisseton Wednesday night through Friday evening. There is a 20-40% chance of 0.4 mile or less visibilities during that time. Light winds near the surface during this time won't help scour out some of this low level moisture. We'll continue to monitor the trends for this period as it nears. Limiting the potential will be the lack of significant melting snow that would have added to the low level moisture in the area.

The chances for precipitation Wednesday through Friday continue to diminish, with only a 15-20% chance of precipitation now forecast over far northeastern SD and west central MN Thursday night. We'll continue to monitor the latest trends for this high travel period, but at this point most o the precipitation looks to stay to our north. While the exact track of small systems at that time are still uncertain, there is growing confidence in a low pushing across south central Canada Friday night through Saturday night, dragging a cold front across the Dakotas during the day Saturday. Confidence is higher in the temperature cool down for the end of the weekend, with highs mainly in the teens and 20s Sunday. Even with that though, the spread in the surface temperatures at Aberdeen range from 10/25th percentile to 27/75th percentile, which is a significant spread. The daytime push of cold air advection will likely mean winds higher than originally forecast for Saturday. The 75th percentile NBM winds Saturday afternoon are 35-45 mph, with the 90th percentile in the 45-55 mph range. The surface high looks to stay across the Dakotas and western MN through Monday of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for the most part. There may be some temporary MVFR clouds/MVFR fog moving into KABR/KATY during the morning but confidence isn't terribly high.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.