textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The Northern Plains will see an active pattern, and chances for showers and thunderstorms are in place through the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Through Sunday evening, chances to receive 0.5" of rain ranges from 20-40% over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota to 65-85% over central and north central South Dakota.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather this evening into tonight across central and parts of north central South Dakota. Jones County as well as part of Stanley County reach a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). Damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph is the main threat. Hail of 1" in diameter and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out as possible hazards either.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather Sunday, mainly along and west of the James River Valley. Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and hail of 1" in diameter are the main threats.

UPDATE

Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

As of 10am, temperatures range in the mid 60s to the lower 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest east of the James River. Satellite indicates broken to overcast skies over much of the CWA with PIR/MBG reporting lower clouds and drizzle and reduced visibilities. Water vapor imagery shows a small mid level circulation (remnants of MCV?) along the SD/NE border in this overall negative tilted trough aloft. This along with southeasterly flow (leading to low level moisture) from the Gulf, and daytime heating will be the focus for ongoing and developing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the late morning into the afternoon. Forecast is still on track for a line of storms or storm clusters to move into central SD late tonight. Other than updating pops, no major changes made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Upper-level trough over the western CONUS brings continued chances for showers and storms over the weekend and into next week. Through Sunday evening, ensemble median values range from roughly a quarter of an inch over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, increasing to about an inch over central South Dakota. Overall coverage of showers will be fairly spotty through the weekend and rain rates light, with the exception of possible thunderstorms both this evening and Sunday evening. With this setup will also come strong southeasterly winds, gusting up to 35 miles per hour both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

For today's severe threat, hi-res model guidance is in a decent level of agreement on a QLCS system moving into central South Dakota in the late evening (somewhere in the neighborhood of 03Z). This helps support the idea that wind will be the main severe threat with the storms that move into the area. DCAPE in particular highlights this threat the best, with an area of 1100+ J/kg located over parts of Stanley/Jones/Lyman Counties. MUCAPE, 0-6km mean wind, and Effective Bulk Wind Difference will also be sitting near their preferred thresholds for a QLCS wind threat at 2000 J/kg, 16 knots, and 20 knots respectively. In terms of the hail threat, not expecting much with this setup. MUCAPE and decent mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km will be present, but the lack of shear will hold back the potential for sustained updrafts to create a widespread hail threat. Shear will also likely be a problem for tornado threat, as the area will struggle to reach 30 knots of 0-3km shear. LCL heights and low-level helicity will also be more favorable out in front of the best shear and CAPE, with perhaps the best chance of overlap in the best environmental parameters being over Lyman to perhaps Buffalo county. Therefore, confidence is low, but can't rule a tornado out at this point.

Sunday's severe setup is quite similar to Saturday's, in that a plume of CAPE will help support shower and storm development, but low shear will once again limit potential. High DCAPE values will once again support a wind threat, and somewhat borderline setups for hail and tornadoes are once again in place. Currently, a Marginal Risk is in place for Sunday evening.

Moving into next week, the upper-level low will continue to sit in place over the western CONUS through until at least mid-week. This will continue to bring chances for rain through that time frame. Thunderstorms will be possible next week as well, and some may become severe. At the moment no setup next week stands out as necessary to discuss at the moment, and in general expecting additional borderline setups for severe weather. Outside of storm chances, little of note is expected in the extended period other than temperatures holding at near-normal to just above normal (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing conditions are forecast to bounce between VFR and MVFR (cigs) at KABR and KATY throughout the TAF valid period. MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast for the KPIR/KMBG terminals. Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue to develop and move north across the region, impacting all four terminals throughout the period. Expect a couple rounds of thunderstorm during the TAF valid period, as well. The first round is slated to work through between ~15Z-21Z, and the second round is expected later tonight, at or after 03Z. Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will be common at all four terminals throughout the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.