textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated smoke remains over the region with an intermittent return of near surface smoke and visibility reductions through Thursday.

- An unsettled weather pattern returns with shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend with the highest chances (60 to 85%) Thursday through Friday morning.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of a line from Vivian to Summit.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue north of a warm thermal boundary and an axis of steep lapse rates in the boundary. Most of this activity has focused along and north of Hwy 12 with lighter activity south. The focus for additional showers and thunderstorms will also shift south through today as a warm front sets up along the NE/SD border. To the north, shortwave activity will keep the showers going. Any thunderstorms across this forecast area look weak today with the front so far south.

The pattern remains active into Thursday with another warm front set to stretch farther northeast and a mid level low moving through ND. The warm front will focus from Chamberlain to Watertown/Brookings by 21z Thursday. Storms that form along this boundary could become severe. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms with strong winds and large hail the main threats from Chamberlain northeast to Ortonville, MN. Heavy rain is also possible along and east of the Coteau with high precipitable water in a lobe of that mid level low. Guidance has been very consistent on amounts, if not on placement, for areas east of I-29 receiving 1 to 3 inches through Thursday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The period begins on Thursday night with a southwesterly LLJ interacting with a shortwave trough to produce showers and thunderstorms. Depending on model used, convection appears best over southeastern South Dakota, or where the nose of the LLJ will be located. Showers with non-severe thunderstorms can be expected over much of the CWA. Will need to monitor rainfall amounts and rates across the southeast CWA as locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The storm system departs the area by Friday morning with a period of dry conditions for much of Friday through Saturday.

The weather pattern becomes active once again starting on Sunday. A series of shortwaves will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms through the remaining long term portion of the forecast. Temperatures through the period will hover around near average for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Widely scattered (PROB30/Vicinity) -SHRA/SHRA and -TSRA/TSRA will affect the region during the overnight hours and likely into some portion of Wednesday morning as well. Areas of smoke (FU) will also drift south through the area through Wednesday morning, possibly reducing surface VSBY down to around 4-6SM.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.