textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue over the next few days, peaking on Thursday. Highs Thursday afternoon will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, roughly 20 to 25 degrees above mid-April normals.

- The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger.

- A cold front will move through the area Friday, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in.

UPDATE

Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Above normal temperatures take hold this afternoon, with gentle winds across much of the forecast area. The broader setup in place is such that a jet streak aloft on the front side of a ridge clips the eastern part of the forecast area, leading to some potential for some isolated precipitation development over eastern South Dakota through Wednesday. Little to no accumulation is expected out of any development, as drier air near the surface will limit the ability of these rain showers to reach the surface.

The warming trend will continue over the next couple of days, peaking on Thursday. Southerly flow into the area bring an additional boost of warm air advection, and will push 85-mb temperatures to roughly 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This translates to highs reaching the low to mid 80s across most of the forecast area Thursday. These surface temps are about 25 degrees above normal for mid-April, but all climate sites currently look like they will fall short of any record highs. The heat will help create elevated fire weather conditions over much of the area on Thursday when combined with gusty southerly winds. High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger is expected, and it remains entirely possible that a Red Flag Warning will be warranted.

A longwave trough will develop over the western CONUS, developing a low pressure system into the Northern Great Plains Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is expected with this system, developing along and behind a cold front. The last couple of NBM runs have trended the heaviest precipitation northward and out of the Aberdeen forecast area, but still looking at ensemble median values around a tenth of an inch through Saturday. Temperatures out ahead of the front will be warm enough to support rain, but as the front brings colder air into the region a transition to snow will occur. A well- saturated profile will support snow to liquid ratios around 10:1 or higher, but QPF is limited after the precipitation type transition so only a couple of tenths of snowfall accumulation is currently expected.

Behind the cold front, winds turn northwesterly and increase Friday afternoon. NBM probability of Wind Advisory criteria of 45 mile per hour gusts is holding steady for the moment, at a broad 10-30% chance. These post-frontal northwesterly flow regimes tend to be underdone, so the given probabilities are likely a bit low. On the other hand, current model guidance doesn't resolve much 40+ knot support in the upper levels until Saturday rolls around, so gusts mixing to the surface Friday may still be sub-advisory level. NBM chances Saturday afternoon are fairly similar to Friday's (10-30% chance of Wind Advisory criteria), but with slightly better upper- level wind speeds it may be more realistic to actually reach 45 mph at the surface.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.