textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- The pattern changes to cooler temperatures Sunday, along with increasing chances for rain next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As of 8pm, temps have dropped into the 60s to upper 70s, warmest over south central SD and coolest over north central SD. Winds are continuing to diminish with speeds between 10-15mph, highest along the eastern slopes of the Coteau. The center of the surface low is currently over the Canadian/ND/MN border with its cold front extending through north central SD and surface trough just ahead of it. This cold front will continue to track southeastward slowly across the region overnight and finally exit our far southeastern CWA late Sunday morning or midday. As the fropa tracks southeastward, winds will continue to switch out of the north and northeast. Post frontal stratus clouds will also track east and northeast across the region tonight. No major changes made to the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are warming through the 80s. Winds across central and north central South Dakota are southerly 5 to 15 mph, with some gustiness at times up to around 20 mph. Across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota, winds are south-southwesterly 15 to 25 mph with gusts well in excess of 35 mph; especially in the downslope-favored regions in the lee of the Coteau, where gusts have been between 45 and 55mph. Relative humidity values across central and north central South Dakota are crashing, down below 25 percent. Along and east of the Minnesota/South Dakota border, relative humidity values have been slower to diminish, given the higher levels of gulf-sourced moisture in the mixing layer/PBL.

There is a cold front analyzed just starting to enter Corson/Dewey Counties (far nw corner of the CWA). Short term guidance has this frontal boundary slowly sinking southeast across the CWA from now through Sunday afternoon. Low forecast confidence in the temperature forecast on Sunday, while this frontal passage is occurring. Suffice it to say, the southeastern third of forecast zones should be warmer than the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA. Behind this fropa, temperatures will be cold (closer to climo normal) over the entire CWA for Monday through Wednesday. Beyond that, the low level thermal advection pattern should change enough to allow some warming over, at least, the western half of the CWA for the latter portion of next week.

The precipitation potential keeps changing from day to day, with what previously looked like a decent soaking rain early this upcoming week, is fizzling out. With the western CONUS upper level trof that's developing, there could certainly be a few transient shortwaves bringing short-lived rain chances to the region between Sunday night and Wednesday. But, ensembles and deterministic solutions are not on the same sheet of music regarding how to evolve/break down the Rex block pattern that will develop over the next few days. Amongst the many potential outcomes, there are currently two scenarios that stand out the most. In one scenario, energy rounding the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge will be sufficient to kick out the closed low over the intermountain west, bringing a period of precipitation potential and cooler conditions during the second half of next week. The other scenario holds the Rex block in place, keeping this region generally dry and warm from Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A cold front is slowly making its way southeast across the region, with winds gradually switching to the north-northeast. This front will eventually move through KATY later in the morning. Behind the front, lowering clouds can be expected through the TAF period, with MVFR CIGs forecast at KMBG and KABR as the TAF period wears on. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) lingering in the KATY region still towards the beginning of the TAF period and inserted mention of this into the TAF there.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.