textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across north central SD this evening through the overnight hours. The main threat will be wind gusts of around 60-70 mph over north central SD. 1" hail will also be possible over far north central SD.

- Widespread precipitation move into mainly north central to northeastern SD/west central MN late this evening through Wednesday. Mainly dry weather will continue over south central SD.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 45-55 mph Wednesday, particularly over portions of central SD. Those driving high profile vehicles are asked to drive with caution.

- The combination of strong winds and dry conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions over portions of south central SD, where relative humidity falls into the 30-40% range Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An area of light showers coming off an elevated cloud deck (8-12kft) continue to shift across eastern South Dakota into Western Minnesota. Just a few hundreds if anything has been recorded. Additional shower activity has begun to move across north central South Dakota, a combination of destabilization due to daytime heating, and advection out of North Dakota associated with the approach of a northwest flow shortwave. This activity is likewise high based, and NAM/RAP/HRRR BUFKIT profiles depict skinny mid level cape above a dry layer that extends to the surface. Bases are just barely below the freezing level, so a microburst threat is the most likely for severe weather. Thus far, no high winds with this elevated convection with the highest thus far being 44 mph at the SDSU mesonet station 3 miles west of Isabel in Ziebach county.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A broad area of low pressure at the surface was set up over Saskatchewan and northeastern MT, with a ridge of high pressure set up over far eastern SD into MN. Ongoing light showers over northeastern SD will continue to slow exit this afternoon.

The area of low pressure will shift across central ND/SD by 06Z and to the SD/MN border by 12Z Wednesday, with cold air advection taking hold. Showers and thunderstorms over north central South Dakota this evening will expand across the rest of the forecast area overnight. Updraft helicity tracks are maximized around 02-03Z over north central SD before sinking southeast and exiting by around 09-11Z. We continue to highlight this period for potential isolated severe storms in our social media graphics. Winds will be the main concern, with gusts of 60 to near 70 mph. 1" hail will also be possible.

If we were staring out with drier fuels/grasses, fire weather would be more of an issue. Still, any ongoing fire will be impacted by shifting winds out of the northwest increasing overnight.

Expect winds out of the northwest gusting 45 to 55 mph west of a line from around Mobridge to Redfield Wednesday morning through early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of central SD Wednesday. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expect east of this line, lowest over west central Minnesota. Nearly any shower on Wednesday will have the potential to produce wind gusts of 60 mph. Relative humidity over north central to northeastern South Dakota will be 50 percent or higher, while falling in the 30 percent range south of Pierre where the winds and drier conditions will result in elevated fire weather concerns.

The surface low will quickly exit to over southeastern MN/IA by 21Z Monday. A reinforcing cold front will sink south across the forecast area Thursday, keeping temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Weak high pressure will remain overhead.

Looking farther out, Saturday may be another day to monitor. Low pressure on the lee of the Rockies Saturday morning will organize and eject a low across the Central Plains (NE/KS/OK) late Saturday into Sunday. While we will be well north of the area, an inverted trough will move through our forecast area. About half of the Medium- Range Real-time AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecasts (NCAR) show the potential for at least isolated to scattered severe weather. The SPC Slight Risk area currently is to our south, across NE (closer to the surface low). We do have 30-70% chance of precipitation during that time period, highest south.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region tonight. MVFR cigs move in to all sites except KPIR this morning before clearing by 21z everywhere but KATY.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-009-015>018- 033>037-045-048-051. MN...None.