textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing south to southeast wind gusts of 35-50 mph today will help contribute to patchy to areas of blowing dust along with Red Flag Warning conditions.

- A cold front will swing through the area on Thursday switching winds from a southwest to a northwest direction from west to east and remain gusty until early evening.

- The combination of low relative humidities and strong winds on Friday will lead to another day of elevated fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the 50s to around 60 with winds out of the southwest at around 10-15 mph. Some areas of central SD have started gusting to 35 mph already this morning. Winds will spread east today and gust to 35 to 45 mph with some gusts of 50 mph mainly around the James River and east. Winds across northern SD Friday (mainly north of Hwy 14) are expected to increase again to between 30 and 40 mph with some localized gusts to 45 mph along the ND border. This, combined with continued dry conditions will continue our enhanced fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning is in place starting at 7 AM CDT and continuing through Friday afternoon for areas south of Hwy 14 and Friday evening north of Hwy 14.

A low pressure system moves towards the region Saturday and into western SD Sunday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation. Expected amounts have been increasing the last couple days and that trend continues with the chance of more than a quarter of an inch in the 24 hours ending Monday morning now between 80 and 95% across the forecast area and the chance of an inch or more at 40 to 60 percent east of the Missouri River for the same time period. This is expected to be the time of heaviest rainfall. If this much precipitation pans out, it may be enough to reduce fire danger concerns for at least a couple days. There is also a chance for some storms with this rain, although it is hard to say yet if the storms will be severe. Rain continues into the overnight Monday, but only a tenth of an inch or so additional precipitation is expected. Following the low, highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to be rather significantly below average for this time of year, as much as 15 to 20 degrees. High temps recover to around normal for the end of the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. Southeast winds shift to the west behind a passing dry front then diminish in the evening. Winds will gust 30 to 40 kts at all sites and may briefly kick up some blowing dust.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>011-015>017-021. Red Flag Warning until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ018>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.