textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal will continue through the weekend. Parts of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may flirt with record highs.

- Precipitation chances (40-60%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow by Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

More of the same expected as the broad upper-level ridge over the western CONUS remains in place. Therefore, a warm, dry airmass will remain in place, bringing above normal temperatures through the weekend. Highs in the 50s are 20-30 degrees above normal, and eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota in particular may flirt with daily record highs. The only other forecast concern in the near- term is the potential for some fog development early this morning. Hi-resolution models are showing varying degrees of visibility reductions, but are fairly consistent on two main areas within the combination of moister air and light winds seeing some fog development. Namely, over western Minnesota there is a decent degree of confidence in seeing visibility reductions below 1 mile. Along the James River also shows a decent signal, although confidence in dense fog is a bit lower.

Focus shifts to an upcoming mid-week system, as the upper-level ridge is finally pushed out by a longwave trough, developing a low pressure system into the Northern Plains. At this time, indications are that precipitation development will happen on the north side of the low, and that precipitation type will be highly dependent on temperature. At the moment, soundings allow for some confidence in the formation of ice aloft through the multi-day event. Temperatures at the surface look to be initially warm enough to produce rain for the first part of the event, but as temperatures cool down (giving highs much closer to normal by the middle into the end of the week), expect a transition to snow). Latest ensemble guidance puts the 90th percentile (a proxy for a reasonable "worst case" scenario) QPF between 0.75"-1" accumulating through Thursday. Ensemble medians sit closer to 0.25"-0.5". The heaviest precipitation is expected with the initial surge of the low into the area, occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday. Based on temperature probabilities and model soundings, the current thought is that a good chunk if not the majority of the QPF will fall as rain. Therefore, not expecting a major snowstorm at this time with this system. However as stated above, temperature will play a major factor here, and there is still plenty of time for things to change and become further refined.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Other than some short-lived patchy morning fog potential, VFR conditions are forecast at all four terminals throughout the TAF valid period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.