textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue over south central through east central SD this afternoon with the last of the rain moving out of south central SD late this evening. Additional amounts less than 0.25in.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for isolated severe storms Tuesday afternoon through the early evening along and east of a line from Britton to Doland. Main threats include wind gusts of 60 mph and quarter sized hail.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal through next week. More seasonal temps and humidity return late week into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

As of 1pm, widespread rain showers continue with the bulk of the rain over south central to east central SD, with a sharp cutoff and dry conditions mainly over the northern half of the CWA as the center of the vort max spins over west central SD. Latest MRMS accumulated precipitation indicates anywhere from a half inch to about 1.75" over south central SD, highest from Stanley and eastward though Sully/Hughes into Hyde/Hand Counties. KPIR ASOS has reported 1.25", 0.05" at KMBG, 0.25" at KATY, with 0 at KABR. The vort max that has been producing this moisture within this overall embedded shortwave will continue to spin and drift off towards the southeast this evening, with it hovering over south central SD into NE by 00Z, per RAP/HREF. Widespread rain will continue over south central SD and diminish northwest to southeast as the wave aloft moves out of the region early Monday morning. The last of the rain should exit far Jones/Buffalo Counties by ~03-06Z Monday per CAMs with maybe some spotty lingering precip lingering behind it through 12Z here. Probability of additional rain>0.25" through late tonight is 30-50% over south central SD, highest over southern Jones/Lyman with about a 20-30% of exceeding a half inch.

Our attention then turns to the next system as a nearly stacked closed low continues to spin over Alberta with its trough extending southward over the northern Rockies. The surface low will quickly track out of Canada Monday evening and over ND into MN through Tuesday with its cold front sweeping northwest to southeast over the CWA during this time. CAMs indicate spotty convection popping up over the CWA during the afternoon per daytime heating with showers and thunderstorms moving in over north central SD Monday evening with additional development over south central SD Monday night with this precip tracking eastward (and possibly phasing together) across the CWA through Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front with precip tapering off behind it as dry air moves in per high pressure over the northern Rockies/Canada. Lingering wrap-around precip behind the low will continue over far NESD/MN Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will be high pops low QPF event as the latest run of the NBM has pops of 60-95% along and ahead of the fropa with the bulk of the precip falling between 00Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday. With the quick speed of the clipper rain amounts will be minimal with 24hr rainfall>0.25", ending 00Z Wednesday is 40-65% with prob of 0.50" at 30-40% with the highest percentages over NESD/MN. With the cold front hovering somewhere between the James River and Sisseton Hills Tuesday afternoon, locations along and east of the front through west central MN will have dewpoints still in the upper 50s to lower 60s. CAPE values won't be overly impressive, up to 1000 j/kg, with shear of around 30-35kts out of the west. However, with afternoon mixing into the cooler air aloft this could be enough for a storm or two to become severe. Therefore, the SPC has added a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the isolated threat of severe storms along and east of a line from Britton to Doland with the main threats being wind gusts of 60 mph and quarter size hail. As the fropa tracks eastward the severe threat will diminish by the evening.

By the middle of the week, northwest flow aloft and still some weak upper level energy near the shortwave and surface low over MN/WI, afternoon heating and mixing may lead to pop up convective showers and thunderstorms over far NESD/MN Wednesday afternoon with the threat diminishing by sunset with minimal pops of 15-20%. Otherwise the rest of the CWA will be dry as a high continues to dominate the area into Thursday. By Thursday evening and Friday the ridge that has been over the western CONUS will track eastward over the central CONUS Friday evening/Saturday, bringing in warmer air at the surface and aloft per return flow. This along with a lee of Rockies boundary setting up will bring the return of showers and thunderstorms over far south central SD Thursday with rain/storms spreading north and northeastward over the CWA Friday with NBM pops of 40-70%, which have increased with the latest run. Still a bit early for specifics but machine learning models do indicate a 5% chance of severe weather mainly west of the Sisseton Hills with no outlook from SPC.

By Saturday the ridge shifts east with models agreeing on this large closed low over PacNW and trough extending over western CONUS with the CWA in southwest flow. Strong winds aloft within a jet streak circling the low will overspread the Northern Plains and return flow 700mb-surface will bring in ample amounts of warmer air and moisture as dewpoints rise into the 60s on the WAA side of a low. This low is forecast to track across the Northern Plains/Canada through Sunday/Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Again way too early for specifics but CIPS ML model shows a 5-15% chance of severe weather with the highest percent over portions of central to western SD Saturday and over eastern SD/western MN Sunday. However, as the previous shift mentioned this warmer air moving in aloft will result in 700mb temps ranging from ~10-13C Saturday afternoon which is within the 90-93th percentile range per climo for this time of year with these temps over eastern SD/MN for Sunday. This may put a damper on severe potential but again, way too far out to nail down at this time but something to keep watch of.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR, or even periods of IFR CIGs are still expected this evening at KPIR. Gradual improvements to VFR are forecast later in the TAF period, with some uncertainty on exact timing of this. Elsewhere, generally VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, although CIGs around 3000ft are still near KMBG this evening. Not out of the question to see BKN030 at times this evening. -RA continues to depart the region slowly this evening, with only KPIR perhaps seeing lingering precipitation early in the TAF period. Although, VSBY from -RA is forecast to remain VFR.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.