textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across north central SD this evening through the overnight hours. The main threat will be wind gusts of around 60 mph over north central SD. 1" hail will also be possible over far north central SD.

- Widespread precipitation move into mainly north central to northeastern SD/west central MN late this evening through Wednesday. Mainly dry weather will continue over south central SD.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 45-55 mph Wednesday, particularly over portions of central SD. Those driving high profile vehicles are asked to drive with caution.

- The combination of strong winds and dry conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions over portions of south central SD, where relative humidity falls into the 30-40% range Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Aberdeen and Mobridge ASOS reports remain available locally, but are not being transmitted via the FAA to our web pages. The issue is being worked on. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of central SD Wednesday into early Wednesday evening for gusts of 45-55 mph.

UPDATE for the 18Z TAF discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 909 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Updated to increase the shower potential this afternoon based on the CAMs. Thunderstorms look to hold off mostly until around 21Z or later over north central SD, and the key messages have been updated to highlight the main threat tonight. The probability of winds over 45 mph has also increased for Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 857 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of the north to northwest between 10 and 15 mph. Storms have moved east and out of the region and leave behind mainly clear skies.

Storms return this evening mainly over north central and eastern SD. There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms in north central SD with the main threat being strong winds of 60 mph, although there could be some storms that produce hail 1 inch in diameter. This marginal might also be expanded into eastern SD with further updates. The first round of storms looks to move across from about 4 PM to 7 PM CDT, and then a second round moves through between 10 PM Tuesday and 3 AM CDT Wednesday. CAMs show a break Wednesday morning a couple hours after sunrise with showers and storms popping back up during the afternoon to evening hours. This second round of precipitation looks much more scattered in nature than what moves across the area this evening. No severe weather is expected at this time but it won't take much to get severe levels winds with the strong winds already expected (more on that in the next paragraph) Thursday afternoon also has a chance for some showers and storms. No severe weather is expected with those storms.

Temperatures through the period continue to range between average and as much as 10 degrees below average, coolest being Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will also be quite windy with gusts of 40-50 mph west of the Missouri River during the afternoon. Chance of gusts higher than 45 mph is between 70 and 90% south of Hwy 14. North of Hwy 14, the chances decrease to 30-50%. The rest of the forecast looks to much much calmer wind-wise.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Aberdeen and Mobridge ASOS reports remain available locally, but are not being transmitted via the FAA to our web pages. The issue is being worked on.

High clouds will bring light VFR showers to MBG/PIR/ABR early this afternoon. Increasing winds out of the northwest will be the main concern after 12Z Wednesday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of central SD (including MBG/PIR) Wednesday into early Wednesday evening for gusts of 40-50 kts. Thunderstorms are expected this evening and again Wednesday, although coverage and timing remains uncertain and limited to PROB30 groups when we are most confident in them occurring. MVFR ceilings are expected to start at MBG/between 12-16Z Wednesday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-009-015>018-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None.