textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers and flurries are expected tonight into Sunday morning. Accumulations up to half an inch are possible.

- Bitter cold will continue through Monday morning. Highs will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero, with lows ranging from -5 to -15 for the next two days. The coldest air will be over far northern and northeastern South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Temperatures briefly return to near normal values Monday afternoon, with highs in the teens and 20s.

UPDATE

Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Clear sky conditions this afternoon, with temperatures gradually creeping above 0 degrees across much of the area. As low clouds move in tonight, there will be some chances for some light snow showers as well. Confidence is low on the exact coverage and timing, but the greatest chances to see measurable snow are over central and north central South Dakota overnight tonight into early Sunday morning. Areas that do see snow are not expected to receive more than a couple of tenths of an inch in accumulation. By Sunday morning, a high pressure center begins to build into the area, pushing the snow chances out to the south by the end of the morning.

Cold temperatures are expected to stick around for the next couple of days, and overnight wind chills may approach Cold Weather Advisory status both Sunday and Monday in the early morning. Sunday's chances appear more marginal at this point, with high- resolution ensembles showing chances to reach -30 degrees only at roughly 10% over a small area along the SD/ND state line. As such, no headline is expected for Sunday's overnight cold. Stronger winds gusting to 20-25 mph Sunday night into Monday morning look to potentially provide broader coverage of Advisory criteria wind chills, and a headline will definitely need to be considered with future forecast packages. However, no headline will be issued at this time.

The broad pattern of a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the eastern CONUS is expected to continue through most of next week, catching the ABR forecast area in the transition zone between the two. This setup will support the continuation of temperatures 5- 10 degrees below late-January normals, with the exception of Monday where a brief warm up to near-normal is expected. The extended period looks mostly dry, with some possible snowfall coming mid-week thanks to an upper-level jet streak riding down the front side of the ridge. At this point, NBM probability of measurable snow reaches about 50%, and probability of 1" sits at roughly 20% for this clipper system. Otherwise, little of note in the extended period at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions initially will give way to MVFR CIGs later tonight into early Sunday morning. There may be patches of -SN with these lower clouds as well, with potential for MVFR VSBY. Will handle this with a PROB30 for the time being. Forecast is for a return to VFR conditions late in the TAF period. Southeast surface winds early this evening will gradually switch to north-northwest by Sunday.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.