textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall chances (50-70%) return for Tuesday/Tuesday night. Severe weather unlikely, generally confined to areas along/south of I-90.

- Above normal temperatures (+5 to +10 degrees) remaining in place through much of the upcoming week, especially the latter half and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Pleasant conditions in place across the region today with surface high pressure overhead and drier air with dewpoints in the 50s. Overnight, temperatures look to fall into the 50s for most locations with increasing high clouds in advance of an approaching mid-level shortwave. This wave will come up from the southwest and is still taking aim at the central/northern plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Latest timing from the models would bring showers into the southwest CWA late Tuesday morning or closer to 18Z, with activity then spreading northeast across portions of the remaining CWA through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe storm potential looks limited over the region, with the better instability setting up further south across southern SD and into NE/IA closer to the surface boundary. That said, HREF ensemble MUCAPE values do reach 750-1000 J/KG by 00Z Wed over Jones/Lyman counties. Newest Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook does bring the Marginal Risk area right up to the bootheel of Lyman County. As for rainfall amounts, NBM mean QPF values are generally from 0.25in to 0.60in across the region, but any areas of heavier rainfall in thunderstorms could bring upwards of an inch or more as noted by NBM90th amounts between 1.00- 1.50in.

Looking further ahead towards the end of the week and upcoming weekend, it still appears the overall upper pattern will feature a large building ridge across the central CONUS, poking northward into the Northern Plains. Grand Ensemble mean 850mb temps Thursday through the weekend generally show +24C to +27C across the region, which is running around the 95th to 98th percentiles for this time of year. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the CWA, warmest over central SD. Dewpoints will be creeping upward as well, with inherited NBM readings in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the eastern CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.