textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 15-20% chance for precipitation Wednesday night over far south central SD. Light rain with no accumulation expected, though there is lower confidence in precipitation type.

- Above normal temperatures, 15-20 degrees warmer than normal, will continue into the weekend before getting up to 20-25 degrees warmer than normal this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Surface high pressure will be moving out of SD today, which helps to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD. As this high pressure is moving out, a low surface pressure is developing and moving over WY tonight into Wednesday. Models have consistently shifted this low's path to the south over the past couple of days, with it moving into far southwestern SD then to the southeast through NE Wednesday night into Thursday. This shift also causes the precipitation to shift south as well, majorly reducing the chances of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday for central and northeastern SD. Currently, there is a 15-20% chance for precipitation Wednesday night in south central SD before the low moves to far to the south to affect the area. Models show above freezing air aloft and at the surface when precipitation chances occur, which is leading to light rain being forecast. However, there is some lower confidence in precipitation type as other models have some slightly cooler temperatures at the surface. QPF amounts have decreased as well, with ensembles having only a 5-10% chance for 0.01 inch or more QPF in south central and east central SD, which the models continue to shift to the south.

The low does help to move some warmer air into central and northeastern SD, causing temperatures to be 15-20 degrees warmer than normal into the weekend. High surface pressure moves in over SD Thursday evening into Friday as well as dry air aloft. These two combine to help keep precipitation from developing or moving over central and northeastern SD as well as keeping clear and sunny skies around.

Saturday, the models show an upper-level trough to the south of SD move east, which helps to push a surface trough over the state. With dry air aloft, the models do not forecast precipitation developing. The trough looks to mainly cause a shift in the wind Saturday, from south to from the west, back to from the south but early Sunday morning. Some warm air also moves in behind the trough Saturday evening into Sunday, which causes surface temperatures to rise. Currently, models are showing temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer than normal over all of central and northeastern SD through the weekend before warming even more into Monday, 20-30 degrees warmer than normal. An eye will need to be kept on the models for this trough over the next couple days to watch its potential for precipitation and how warm temperatures will actually get.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, with surface winds remaining rather light.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.