textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly north central to northeastern SD and western MN. Wind gusts of 50-60mph and small hail will be possible in the stronger storms.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday, along with some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

UPDATE for 18Z TAF issuance discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Winds will gust 30 to near 40 mph this afternoon. Given the already gusty winds and mixing up to around 700mb, strong showers or thunderstorms mid afternoon into the early evening hours will be capable of producing gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range. Small hail is also a possibility, mainly near and north of U.S. Highway 12.

There is around a 30% chance of rainfall in excess of 0.10", or a wetting rain, for areas north and east of Aberdeen this afternoon through this evening. Any stronger shower or thunderstorm will be able to produce a quick 0.10" of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of the west at less than 10 mph. Some clouds are moving in from the north that will continue to spread south through the day. There is also a chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon across north central and northeast SD. No severe weather is expected at this time. Along with this chance of storms comes some fairly strong wind gusts out of the northwest today at 35 to 40 mph, highest over north central SD.

The best chance for widespread precip still looks to be Tuesday night through Wednesday evening as a low pressure system moves towards and across the region. Models are now showing the center of the low pressure moving across SD instead of ND. This hasn't changed the precipitation forecast much, however, winds Wednesday afternoon have increased and spread farther east. The current forecast has gusts of 55 mph over north central and south central SD. The probability of gusts over 55 mph is around 50% in south central SD and less than 50% elsewhere. Winds above 45 mph are expected to spread as far east as the James River with gusts above 30 mph expected west of the Sisseton Hills/Prairie Coteau region. Another thing that hasn't changed is the forecast high temperatures through the week and into the weekend. We are still expecting near to slightly below average temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect mainly VFR conditions to continue. Daytime heating and strong mixing today accompanying a surface trough along with persistent northwesterly flow aloft with an embedded wave will help bring showers and thunderstorms to the area (mainly north of PIR). Given winds already gusting 22-33kts it won't take much from a stronger shower or thunderstorm to bring stronger winds with gusts nearing 40kts or higher to the surface this afternoon. The loss of daytime heating will result in weakening showers and thunderstorm activity this evening with a clearing sky anticipated.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.