textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, ending with the loss of daytime heating. Another round of light spotty showers is expected Thursday afternoon, over mainly south central to northeast SD and west central MN. Little to no precipitation is expected.

- High temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal Thursday, topping out mainly in the 50s. The warmest day will be Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The latest surface weather map shows a weak surface low set up west to east across northern SD. This feature will slowly sink south across NE and far southeastern by 03Z. Radar and satellite imagery show small areas of showers and thunderstorms becoming more abundant. While lightning and winds gusting 35-45mph will be the main concern with any stronger shower or storm, small pea sized hail will also be possible. A few locations over mainly western and central SD are already indicating the potential for small hail with ongoing small storms. The highest chances of lightning will be west of the MO River through mid afternoon. While most locations with these small off and on showers remain limited, ABR was able to pick up a quick 0.01" prior to 18Z. The loss of the daytime heating will bring our popcorn shower and thunderstorm activity to an end.

Another round of these mainly spotty showers is anticipated Thursday with our steep lapse rates once again. The thunderstorm coverage looks a little more limited though. Temperatures Thursday (lowest over the next week) will be around 5F less than what occurs today, topping out mainly in the 50s - or around 10F below normal for this time of year. High pressure over south central Canada will sink over the eastern Dakotas Friday morning, and along the SD/MN border Friday evening.

Low pressure hugging the U.S./Canadian border between MT, Alberta, and Saskatchewan Friday evening will shift east across ND/Manitoba by midday Saturday. Warm air advection will result in highs in the 60s to low 70s Saturday (warmest expected over the next 7 days). Other than the light popcorn showers today and Thursday afternoon, the next chance of precipitation will be over mainly northeastern SD (25% chance) Saturday night as the surface low tracks a cold front across the area as the low itself exits across Ontario. A secondary trough looks to sink down through ND Sunday night and over at least our eastern counties Monday. We'll see if there is enough moisture to promote any shower activity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will dominate much of the next 24 hours. The main concern will be afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Temporary and prob30 groups have mainly been set up to account for the spotty precipitation. There are already thunderstorms near the ABR site by 1715Z. The potential remains for small hail (GS) and convective wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph within the strongest convective cells, in addition to brief vsby drops into the MVFR category.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.