textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Southerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph today shift to the northwest Tuesday, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This leads to elevated fire weather concerns over central SD Tuesday afternoon.

- A storm system will bring the potential for snow on Wednesday. Low confidence on the location of the rain/snow line and snow amounts at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Forecaster thinking remains relatively unchanged this week. Northwest winds gusting to 40 mph develop on Tuesday as the upper jet drops in with a cold front at the sfc. Nudged highs/lows to NBM 25th both Tuesday and Wednesday even with the initial warmer air still present early from today's southerly push and upper ridging. Expect temperatures to fall through the day from north to south Tuesday with the caa. Blended in NBM90th winds for Tuesday, as well. While a flurry or two can't be completely ruled out Tuesday the best shortwave support for that remains north and east with the primary sfc low.

Short-lived sfc high pressure builds in Tuesday night before exiting into MN on Wednesday. Low pressure tracks into Nebraska on Wednesday with a shortwave trough moving northwest to southeast over SD from Mobridge to Huron. The chance for banded snow exists with this shortwave trough/enhanced frontogenesis. Outside of the band, and what the grand ensemble is smoothing out for accumulations, snow may only amount to an inch or less. However, where the band ends up could be a narrow swath of 3 to 5 inches. As we move into the short term time period when hi-res models come into play, details about this band should come more into focus. Anywhere southwest of Pierre, though, should remain warm enough for lower SLRs and possibly a mix of rain and snow no matter how the band of enhanced precip sets up.

Another shot of colder than average air moves in Friday night. Gusty westerlies on Friday will see some jet enhancement and strengthening with the caa by Friday evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.