textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms over central and northeastern SD and west central MN Saturday afternoon. The primary hazards will be 1 inch in diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms over portions of north central SD and northeast SD into west central MN Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Main hazards will be 1 inch diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

- Our warming trend continues into the weekend, peaking at 15 to 20 degrees above normal Saturday. Highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Made a couple of hourly tweaks to pops to better reflect radar trends, but overall the forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, this morning's fog has mostly burned off and in its place we have mostly sunny skies. Temperatures across the area are in the 70s to low 80s, coolest where the fog lasted longer, with winds out of the northeast to southeast. Winds west river will gust 30-35 mph at times while winds east of the James River will generally stay below 20 mph. There is a slight chance (10-15%) for some showers and weak thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours with another round (30-55%) Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Both Saturday and Sunday have a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. Saturday, the risk covers the entire forecast area. Sunday, the risk covers all of northeast SD and west central MN along with portions of north central SD and will be mainly during the afternoon and evening. There will be a pretty good cap in place with 850 mb temps between 22 and 25 degrees C, but if storms can overcome this, they may become severe. Both days the main hazards will be 1 inch diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Models have moved the time frame for precipitation on Saturday up to include the daytime hours, previously they had a pretty much dry day with storms starting during the late afternoon to early evening. PoPs in general have backed off on Sunday and are now less widespread, covering mainly areas east of the Missouri River during the afternoon and areas along and east of the James River during the evening. Monday does not have an outlook yet, but there is a good chance there will be one as low pressure enters the region and has lots of Gulf moisture to work with. PWATs are still in the 99.5 NAEFS percentile or above for most of Monday with values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches. This will help storms intensify and could also lead to some heavy downpours during storms. These storm chances look to continue into early Tuesday morning.

Highs Saturday are still expected to be above average by as much as 20 degrees then temperatures will cool down into next work week and be much closer to average. After today, winds look to be pretty normal until Monday when gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible across most of the forecast area during the afternoon, lingering over northeast SD during the evening and potentially into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday afternoon.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.