textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for rain return Friday, with the best chances coming Friday evening. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather is in place. Hail of one inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main severe hazards.

- Another Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for storms developing Saturday evening. Hail of one inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour are the main severe threats.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with highs in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Parts of our southwest zones saw a couple of isolated thunderstorms earlier this evening. Made some minor tweeks to the forecast early this evening to account for the threatening storms across south central SD, mainly from Jones County into parts of Lyman County. That activity has since dissipated and a quiet remainder of the evening is expected. The forecast going into the overnight looks to be on track with no other forecast changes anticipated at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Mostly clear skies remain in place this afternoon, and these conditions are expected to persist through tonight. The only other item of note in the near-term is that wind will continue to shift through the evening and overnight time frame to become out of the southeast. Once wind completes the shift, gusts will increase to 20 to 30 miles per hour at their peak, expanding from central and north central South Dakota today to the entire forecast area by Friday morning.

A low-level jet develops Friday evening, which when combined with a shortwave aloft will help develop storms over the area. There is also some consensus on the presence of a warm front oriented west to east, extending from a low pressure center that will move into western South Dakota. There is still some disagreement within the models as to the north/south placement and progression of this front, which leads to some additional uncertainty on the location of storm development. High-resolution models tend to show a stronger signal for storms to move in from the west, influenced more by the shortwave energy and low pressure center. A smaller subset of models also show the potential for development along the warm front and low- level jet over northeastern South Dakota. With both areas of storms in the evening, the expectations are that hail and wind will be the primary severe threats. 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will be in place, and shear of 30-40 knots will support the hail potential, along with mid-level lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. Additionally, DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg are expected over much of the area, leading to the wind potential, particularly if stronger winds from the low- level jet are able to mix to the surface. Not anticipating a widespread tornado threat at this time, but can't entirely rule it out either. If a brief spinup were to occur, the most likely location would be along the warm front.

Another shortwave aloft and associated vorticity maximum is set to move into the region Saturday evening, thereby creating another chance for storm development. Once again it appears as though hail will be the dominant threat due to MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg coupled with 40-50 knots of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are generally expected to fall in the 6-7 C/km range, which is perhaps a little less favorable than ideal conditions for development, but still plenty steep enough to sustain the hail threat. Confidence is a bit lower in the severe wind threat, mainly due to a low signal for anything more than isolated pockets of DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. However with low-level lapse rates near dry adiabatic, stronger gusts and/or microbursts may occasionally produce a severe gust or two. With this threat, there is another Marginal Risk for severe weather in place, mainly covering north central and parts of central South Dakota.

Starting Sunday and into next week, the broad upper-level ridge that has been in place will shift eastward. As a result, an upper-level low will pass to the north, bringing multiple jet streaks over the region through early next week. This setup will be conducive to additional rain chances, with the best chances generally located along the North Dakota/South Dakota border. Still a bit early to talk about severe weather potential, and medium-range machine learning models do not give a strong signal for severe potential after Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expecting VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all terminals through the end of this TAF cycle. Southeast wind gusts will remain elevated tonight into early Friday for KPIR/KMBG before overspreading to the east and across most of the area during the daytime hours. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated tonight through Friday afternoon at each of the TAF sites. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will turn better Friday night and just beyond the scope of this forecast issuance.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.