textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- More widespread rains will shift back into the region today and tonight as a storm system pulls out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains. Highest probabilities of seeing one inch or more during the next 24 hours range from 50-80 percent from south central SD into northeast SD and west central MN.

- Rain and low clouds will bring visibility down to around 2 miles or less this afternoon into this evening.

- Snow will mix in with the rain later today into tonight across parts of central SD. Minor accumulations, especially on grassy surfaces, will be possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFS below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Widespread overcast skies blanket the region early this morning per satl imagery as a long fetch of low to mid level moisture continue to stream northward from the Central Plains into the Northern Plains. As a result, temperatures have remained relatively steady in the mid 30s to low 40s. Early morning precip returns off the regional radar mosaic have dispersed to the north and east across our forecast area. This has led to a break in the light rain but it will only be a temporary break as more rain is expected to break out today and tonight.

The upper flow pattern across the region remains driven by an upper low across the Central Rockies. This system will deliver the next bout of moisture into our forecast area today into tonight. Models remain in fair agreement in tracking the mid/upper low features of this system into the NE Panhandle during the day and into central SD this evening into the overnight. Diffluent flow aloft and mid level forcing will spread precip northward becoming more widespread across central and eastern SD as the day turn into night. The steady rains and low clouds will bring local visibilities down to around 2 miles or less this afternoon into this evening.

Temps at the sfc and aloft remain a critical factor in determining the p-type our forecast area sees. BUFKIT soundings across portions of central and northeast SD and west central MN maintain rain for most of this storm system. However, north central SD will see a bit more dynamic cooling that should be enough to lead to frozen precip or snowfall mixing in with the rain at some point this afternoon into this evening. The late day hours into tonight will be a more favorable period for that mix to turn to all snow. EC ENS p-type meteograms at various locations across our CWA agree with this scenario. The majority of ensemble members are more confident in snowfall basically north and west of a Pierre to Aberdeen line this afternoon into tonight versus anywhere east and south of that line. As far as accumulation potential, confidence remains low. The 25th to 75th percentiles continue to show nothing up to 2 inches. The 90th percentile amounts are as high as 3 to 5 inches. Given the time of year, a recent stretch above normal temperatures and near sfc soil temps in the 40s, any noteworthy accumulations may be hard to come by. Still, can't rule out some light or minor accumulations on grassy areas especially once we get to the end of the day into this evening after sunset.

This system will eventually shift out of our region by early Tuesday morning with drier conditions returning. However, it will be quickly followed up by another upper low tracking northeast out of the Northern High Plains into parts of ND and southern Canada on Wednesday. The sfc low and associated fronts tracking east across the region could touch off a few showers in eastern SD and western MN as the cold front passes through on Wednesday, but most of the moisture associated with this system should remain to our north and east. Temperatures will start to modify midweek as quasi-zonal upper flow sets up. Upper ridging building into the Northern Plains toward the end of the week will lead to a return of above normal temps.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

As of now, all TAF terminals are rain free with maybe some sprinkles at most at KMBG. Our next wave of steady rain is continuing to move in from the south and will overspread the region through the morning as precipitation will continue to track north and northeast. There is a possibility of rain/snow or light snow at KMBG late this afternoon and evening and at KABR around the 00Z-06Z timeframe. No accumulation is expected. Low confidence on ptype and timing and all depends on current surface temps and aloft. Otherwise due to the lower clouds/fog with this system, IFR/LIFR cigs will continue at KPIR through the TAF period. KATY/KABR/KMBG will continue at VFR/MVFR dropping to IFR/LIFR this afternoon and LIFR tonight through the remainder of the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.