textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances (40-80%) return tonight. Rain is expected initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday. A few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation will be possible over northeastern SD and western MN through Wednesday with highest accumulations of up to 2 inches possible across the higher elevations in northeast SD.

- Winds increase tonight and will remain strong through Wednesday morning. At their peak, wind gusts are expected to reach 45-50mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all South Dakota counties tonight through Wednesday morning.

- Another round of snow is expected Thursday through Thursday night. There is a 30-40% chance to see two inches of snow or more over parts of central and east central South Dakota, with chances decreasing moving northeast.

UPDATE

Issued at 751 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Showers just recently beginning to increase in areal coverage across the region. Precipitation chances were beginning too quickly in the forecast earlier this evening and had adjusted PoPs downward and blended up to higher chances around 02Z-03Z. Also seeing strong winds moving out of UNR area and into the southwest CWA, perhaps in excess of 60-65 mph so will keep a close eye on this as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A dynamic storm system will continue to rotate north and east across the region tonight leading to a round of precipitation and gusty winds. We've already seen gusty southeast winds today ahead of this system with generally very light rain shower activity across parts of western and central SD today. As the upper trough rotates northeastward tonight, a sfc low anchored on a northwest to southeast frontal boundary will track northeast across central and northeast SD tonight. Dynamic lift in the lower and middle atmosphere will generate rain shower activity to become more widespread across the area late this afternoon into tonight. In the warm sector across east central SD and points south and east, we late this afternoon and early evening, enough instability is expected to generate some thunderstorm activity, so wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning and thunder across our southeast zones. Not expected any robust convection to cause any impactful weather, but gusty localized winds may be possible, especially just southeast of this CWA.

As this system moves northeast, the gusty southerly winds across central SD will switch to the west and northwest tonight and increase overnight up to 40-50 mph. These stronger winds will gradually translate eastward after midnight and persist through at least the midday hours on Wednesday. A Wind Advisory remains in place across our SD zones to highlight this potentially impactful weather. Cold air advection will kick in behind this system after midnight across north central SD and progressively east-southeast with time through the early morning hours. The 925mb 0C line shifts across the CWA during this time and settles along and west-east oriented line from about the US Hwy 212 corridor by late morning and early afternoon. Precipitation across our northern tier of zones will transition to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow during this time. The time of transition at any one location will be critical to snowfall accumulations. Latest hi-res/CAM guidance depicts this transition to take place across north central SD between 06Z-09Z Wed and between 09Z-12Z across northeast SD and west central MN. This still gives our northern tier of zones a trace up to close to 1 inch of accumulation and 1-2 inches across the higher elevations of the Prairie Coteau, especially on the west and northwestward facing slopes. The upper level low will linger longer across west central MN on Wednesday and perhaps allowing for a continued chance for light snow into the afternoon hours across our northeast zones. If this will to materialize, some higher accumulating snows will be possible in those areas from what we're currently forecasting. So, there still remains some built in uncertainty with this situation.

Eventually, by late Wednesday, the precip and winds will be diminishing and ending. We will see a brief lull in active weather Wednesday night as some s/w ridging moves overhead. The next upper wave and low pressure system will be on our doorstep to our southwest as early as Thursday morning. Latest guidance with this system takes a more southerly and southeasterly track keeping the bulk of accumulating snowfall across our southern zones and points south and east. Snowfall probs of 1 inch or more have declined across this forecast area. So much so that any probabilities of 30 percent or higher or confined to most locales along and south of US Hwy 212. This system will still be worth keeping an eye on though for any changes to the track and expected QPF/snowfall amounts. Any snowfall looks to come to an end by late Thursday/early Friday. Our forecast area will then be just left with dry and chilly temperatures that will range from close to average to below average for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will be on the increase this evening/tonight across northern/northeast SD as a storm system moves in. Have included mention of these lower clouds for KABR/KMBG/KATY, but left out in KPIR for the time being. Will also see an increase in areal coverage of -SHRA/SHRA with potential MVFR VSBY at times. Tonight into Wednesday morning, -RA/RA expected to mix/switch to -SN/SN across northern SD. Strong west-northwest surface winds will develop tonight and persist through Wednesday morning, with gusts from 35 to 45 knots.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

MN...None.