textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of light snow/snow showers through tonight, with accumulations less than an inch. Mixed precip (rain/freezing rain) possible across central SD, but only a light glaze possible. Overall, minor/limited impacts with this system.

- Weak system will bring additional chances (20-30%) for light snowfall under an inch for Tuesday night.

- Expect above normal temperatures (by 5 to 20 degrees) Wednesday through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

UPDATE

Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned just some hourly radar-based tweaks.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mid-level shortwave energy is dropping southeast across the Dakotas while a weak surface wave rides along the stationary front draped from north to south across the western Dakotas. Continue to see areas of light snow and/or snow showers moving southeast across the Dakotas, with more upstream across ND set to make its way through the area into the evening hours. Threat for mixed precipitation exists across central SD in the form of rain/freezing rain, although any ice accumulations are expected to be rather light with limited impacts. Same with snowfall, generally light accumulations under 1 inch expected and not anticipating anything other than minor impacts from this wave as it moves through.

Still dealing with plenty of stratus clouds across the region as well, with signs pointing to this sticking around through much of the night. In fact, reinforcements in cloud cover may be arriving tomorrow so looking at a mostly cloudy short term period. Increased sky cover a bit in the grids/forecast through Tuesday evening.

Next chance for precip across the region looks to be Tuesday night, but again it's just a weak wave of low pressure with only minor/light amounts expected. The rest of the forecast from Wednesday through next Monday is a dry one, with a lack of any significant systems affecting the Northern Plains for the time being.

Focus is still on the warming temperatures set to overspread the area mid/late week into the upcoming weekend. Still appears the peak in temperatures will be on Thursday, with Grand Ensemble showing +10C to +15C across central SD by 00Z Friday. Inherited NBM high temps show widespread 40s and 50s across the region, even flirting with 60 degrees across the far west/southwestern CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The mix of MVFR and IFR cigs will continue through Tuesday morning. Some improvement to low VFR is expected Tuesday afternoon before MVFR cigs move back in during the evening.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.