textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday will be 15 to as much as 30 degrees above normal for this time of year.

- Winds will shift to southerly Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher winds will be over northeastern SD, with the favored downslope areas of the Sisseton hills potentially exceed 60 mph.

- Our continued dry conditions, relative humidity of 15 to 30 percent, and the strong winds will combine to create very high to extreme Grassland Fire Danger Index values Saturday for all but portions of north central SD.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

At 19Z the strong surface high was located between Pierre- Chamberlain-Winner. Winds under the high have diminished, with gusts less than 20mph over central SD. Over northeastern SD and west central MN, gusts of 25-30mph will continue for a couple more hours but are also weakening. After a couple of cool days, we'll be flipping the switch and moving to warm/dry conditons as the surface high along the SD/MN border around 00Z exits across IA late this evening and overnight. A tight pressure gradient will develop between the exiting high and surface low currently over southwestern Canada. Winds just above the surface (peaking around 850-900mb) will be 45-60kts from 06-15Z Saturday across central SD, and from 09-18Z Saturday over eastern SD and west central MN.

Dry air has already taken hold, with dewpoints in the 10 to 15F range this afternoon. Despite temperatures falling into the mid 20s to low 30s, relative humidity recoveries will be very poor and only 25 to 35% over much of central SD. Winds will increase out of the south overnight, gusting 35 to 45 mph after 10Z Saturday. The result is a non-traditional time for increased fire weather concerns. The Red Flag Warning for portions of south central SD begins at 15Z. We'll continue to monitor the latest trends and especially relative humidity, to see if values will fall below 20% prior to 15Z. The strong winds will continue more east through the morning hours Saturday and switch to out of a southwesterly direction. Gusts of 35 to 55 mph are expected during the daytime hours Saturday, lightest over north central SD and west central MN.The strongest winds will be across and just east of the Sisseton Hills (the traditional downslope areas). Winds will slowly start to weaken by mid afternoon, when the lowest relative humidity is expected (dropping to 15 to 25%). Red Flag Warnings (for continued dry fuels, warm and dry air - with highs in the 60s to low 70s, and strong winds) is in effect for much of south central to northeastern SD and west central MN mid-morning Saturday into Saturday evening.

Temperatures will again top out in the 60s and 70s Sunday and Monday. A few 80s are expected over south central SD Monday. Despite the warmer weather, winds will be lighter than Saturday, limiting fire weather concerns a bit. The Canadian low set up across NE and western KS Sunday into early Monday, before eventually pushing east- northeast Monday night. Highs Tuesday will be back in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Any chance of precipitation looks to stay mainly to our south through the day Wednesday. 30-40% chance of precipitation returns Thursday and Friday. Thursday may also be accompanied by another round of strong winds, with gusts again in the 30-40mph range. We'll see how the forecast trends over the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR ceilings initially at ATY will be improving as clouds scatter out over the next 2 hours. The main concern will be increasing winds behind the exiting surface high overnight through Saturday morning. Low level wind shear will start at 07Z at MBG/PIR and then between 09-11Z at ABR/ATY with winds above the surface gusting 40-55kts. The strongest surface winds will be through the morning hours, diminishing in the afternoon from west to east.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ007-008- 011-019>023.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ007-008-011- 019>023.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ017-018- 036-037-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046.