textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through Tuesday with highs generally in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Much colder conditions, but closer to normal for mid January, return late in the week.

- A 20-30 percent chance for light rain/snow possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday before an increased chance of 40-70 percent of snow possible Thursday and Friday. Accumulations in both cases look minimal.

- A period of strong northwest winds are expected on Tuesday into early Wednesday where gusts will range between 35-45 mph. Even stronger winds may be possible late Thursday through Friday where peak wind gusts may range between 35-55 mph. This combined with any snowfall will lead to hazardous weather conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 523 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

At 3 PM....skies are generally partly cloudy with high level cloudiness drifting overhead. Southwest breezes have helped to boost temperatures into the 30s to mid 40s across our eastern zones while western zones are enjoying readings in the 40s to low 50s. A warm front is tracking east across the eastern Dakotas this afternoon and will head off into MN tonight. A sfc trough will follow passing through tonight bringing only a slight change in wind direction from south-southwest to west-northwest. Speaking of the wind, enhanced downsloping winds this afternoon on the eastern edge of the Prairie Coteau have gusted between 40-50+ mph in parts of Roberts, Grant and Deuel Counties. These will persist through late afternoon before starting to back down going into this evening. Mild temperatures and dry conditions remain on tap tonight through at least Monday night. Essentially, the warm air advection pattern will continue allowing for well above normal highs on Monday and Tuesday in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

The overall upper air flow pattern setting up across the region this week remains relatively unchanged from previous forecast packages. Northwest flow aloft looks to dominate the pattern across the Northern Plains. Within this flow, there will be a couple of weak embedded shortwaves that will track across the Dakotas with little fanfare the next 24 hours. However, we continue to see credible evidence that a couple of these upper troughs will be worth noting that will bring changes to our overall dry and mild pattern. The first is progged to push southeast out of Canada into MN and the western Great Lakes on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Associated sfc low will track southeast from Manitoba/Ontario into the western Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday. An associated sfc trough slide east across our area and may provide our far northeast zones with a brief shower or two late Monday night into early Tuesday. The last few runs of ensemble guidance though has been less bullish on precip for our CWA versus locations farther east and north into MN. By the latter half of the day into Tuesday night, models prog a backdoor cold front to sweep south and southwest into the forecast area. Cold air advection takes over and depending on the timing of the fropa will have a play on where temperature trends set up by late in the day through the evening. Gusty winds of 35-45 mph will be possible prior to the frontal passage, but the more notable winds may not arrive until cold air advection hits by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Moisture values look rather limited with the fropa, but wouldn't be surprised to see sprinkles or flurries across our east Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Certainly, a shot of cooler air will be on the way heading into the day Wednesday. Relatively chilly conditions look to set up, especially across our east with daytime readings in upper teens to mid 20s.

The pattern going into late Wednesday into Thursday will feature upper ridging building across the Dakotas. This would give our CWA a brief bump in temperatures as warm air advection draws in 30s and 40s for daytime readings. This could also induce a period of WAA precip on Thursday in the form of rain/snow showers from the James Valley and points east. Gusty northwest winds across the western half of the CWA will help draw in some of that mild air. Then, changes will be in the offing as the second and perhaps more stronger wave is expected to track through the region late Thursday into Friday. Cold air advection will hit as a cold front sweeps south and southeast through the region. A period of snow will be possible but at this time it doesn't look like anything substantial for accumulation. The bigger impact will be strong northwest winds that will develop late Thursday through Friday. Probs of seeing wind gusts greater than 45 mph remain high, especially from the James Valley and points west where they range between 75-95+ percent. Where the snow falls during these strong winds will pose issues in terms of visibilities due to blowing snow. At this point, our northeast zones will have to be considered a more probable area for this to occur. The upper wave is then progged to track and dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late in the week while we are left with cold and blustery northwesterly flow but mainly dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.