textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue (10 to 30 degrees) through at least Tuesday of next week. The warmest days will be today, Sunday, and Monday where portions of south central SD will reach the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Wind gusts of 35 to near 45 mph out of the west-northwest are expected over the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills this evening into the early overnight hours.

- Chances for moisture (20-40%) for the middle of next week, but confidence in model guidance is low. Current trends are for a weak system or two (low amounts of moisture) to move through the area.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/

Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Winds continue to remain steady early this morning behind the warm front sliding across the area, which was near Aberdeen to Redfield at 09Z. 850mb temperatures will max out from 6 to 12C this afternoon, with the highest readings west of the MO River. Surface temperatures will top out in the 40s over northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota, and in the 50s to low 60s across central South Dakota. These temperatures will be 15 to near 30 degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds will be out of the west- northwest with gusts 20 to 30 mph, strongest over central South Dakota. While relative humidity will stay above 60 percent east of a line from Mobridge to Redfield, it will drop into the 35 to 45 percent over Jones, Stanley, and Lyman Counties. The combination of very warm air, winds, and dry fuels (no snow on the ground) will result in high Grassland Fire Danger Index values for Jones County this afternoon.

A weak, mainly west to east oriented cold front will sink south across our area late this evening into the overnight hours. Expect winds out of the west-northwest will gust 35 to near 45 mph over the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills this evening into the early overnight hours. Similarly to late last night/early this morning, localized higher amounts over 45 mph are expected. 59 mph gusts were reported at the Peever DOT site over I-29 around 06Z. A less favorable wind direction, out of the north-northwest is expected after 06Z, which aligns more with the hills. At that point a broad area of higher gusts will fill across the Prairie Coteau.

850mb temperatures below 0C north of the SD border at 06Z Friday will quickly move in and range from -8 to -3C by midday Friday (again highest over central SD). A few CAMs are hinting at light precipitation over far northeastern SD and west central MN early as 21Z this afternoon, with most holding off until 06-12Z Friday. Temperatures near and at the surface will support light rain during much of that period, with a light wintry mix possible around 12Z Friday over the northern reaches of the Prairie Coteau (Marshall County) - where a 15-20% chance of precipitation was added to the forecast. While temperatures will stay nearly steady state in the 30s over central SD overnight and through the day Friday, they will lower into the 20s over northeastern SD by midday, with teens and upper single digits by the end of the day Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Northwest flow overhead to start things off Saturday, but eventually that transitions to a ridge overhead (early next week). A weak upper low at the same time transitions from off the California coast through northern Mexico, so when the next systems start moving through Tuesday/Wednesday we'll be under a split flow regime. That is followed by a baggy trough just to the west with a transition to zonal flow over the Great Lakes. This overall regime transition usually presents us with weaker systems and low confidence in timing/locations especially in the days 5-7 timeframe. As such, while NBM continues to generate low POPs for a prolonged period, none of the systems involved looks to present with significant hazards. Thankfully the NBM has also resolved its weather output to rain/snow (mainly snow) and removed any freezing rain mention. Ensembles across the board show the range of no, low and high QPF... helping to emphasize the low confidence in the forecasted weather for the middle of next week.

As for temperatures, still generally mid for the weekend with a high point on Monday. Models not sure if they want to hold that milder air into Tuesday either, and both Monday and Tuesday have an 8 to 10 degree spreads in the 25th/75th percentiles. That spread only increases Wednesday/Thursday, again because of the low confidence in the handling of upper level features between deterministic guidance and associated ensembles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 456 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours for all but the end of the forecast period, when MVFR ceiling will be possible. This is most likely at ABR after 09Z Friday. The main concern will be winds gusting to 40-45kts just above the surface until around 14Z today (low level wind sheer), and again this evening until winds at the surface increase with gusts of 20-30kts.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.