textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm/hot temperatures in the 80s to low 90s expected through Thursday.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop or move over portions of south central and east central South Dakota this evening, with rain chances persisting over those areas into the early overnight hours.

- Isolated/scattered evening and overnight thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent) exist off and on Thursday evening continuing into Sunday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 836 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Temp-wise, already starting things off a solid 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, and much of the CWA got into the mid 80s yesterday. So, seems reasonable to think there will be areas that exceed 90 degrees this afternoon. Today should be precipitation-free, but low level jet/moisture advection convection later tonight certainly looks possible, from a set-up stand-point. Not much for low level moisture advection today. So, daytime heating should end up knocking relative humidity down below 25 percent over much of the forecast area, but especially over portions of central and north central South Dakota. All that to say, no change planned at this time to the today period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

An upper-level ridge will start to build over and to the north of SD today through the rest of the week, with the models showing split flow occurring over the state. This ridge will help warm air to continue moving into SD today and Tuesday, which will warm temperatures to be 15-20 degrees above normal. The high temperatures will get into the upper 80s to low 90s. Another low level jet is forecast to develop over northern NE and parts of southern SD later this afternoon into the evening. This jet combined with the warmer temperatures and some moisture in that area will likely cause some storms and showers to develop. These storms will most likely stay over NE and southeast SD, however a couple of the high-res models are hinting that a couple of showers and storms could clip south central and east central SD this evening with scattered rain chances continuing during the night.

Tuesday, an upper-level trough and low looks to set up over the Rockies which will help to support a surface trough to develop and sit over western SD and WY through the rest of the work week. As this trough sits over this area, a low level jet will develop and pull cold air in. This cold air will help to get the winds in the jet to the surface, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible mainly over central SD starting Tuesday afternoon and in the afternoons that follow. The cold air will also help to cool temperatures slightly after Tuesday through the rest of the week. While temperatures are cooling, highs will still be in the 80s. This heat could combine with moisture moving into central and northeastern SD to cause afternoon showers and storms to develop Tuesday and onward. Due to the split flow aloft, the models vary the timing, location, and intensity of these showers and storms. There are higher chances for rain and showers to develop towards the end of the work week as some of the models hint at things starting to shift. An eye will need to be kept on upcoming model runs to see if they still continue on this trend and if more models show it occurring.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.