textproduct: Aberdeen

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal expected through the middle of the week. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to 50s through that period.

UPDATE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 810 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Rain has ended across the region as low pressure continues pulling away, while sky is slowly clearing as well. Current forecast sky grids already have a good handle on the decreasing clouds trend through the evening hours. Will also continue to see winds subside, especially after dark. Looking at a rather chilly night, especially wherever skies remain mostly clear the longest. Due to somewhat low confidence in cloud cover trends overnight into early Tuesday morning, no changes to forecast lows, which are in the upper 20s to low 30s for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A surface low pressure and upper level shortwave will exit the CWA this evening, leaving behind dry, but cool conditions overnight. A surface high pressure will slide southward some tonight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s for most locations.

Another shortwave, currently over Nevada, will track northeast tonight, with showers possibly moving into western South Dakota by 12Z Tuesday. Various hi-res models are showing light showers moving into the far southwest CWA, Stanley, Jones, Lyman area mainly after 18Z. The chance of pcpn is 30 to 60 percent. The 12Z HREF probability of seeing 0.01 inches of QPF is 20 to 50 percent, with the highest prob over Jones County. By 0Z Wednesday, the NBM has a broad area of 20 pops, while some CAMS suggests mostly sprinkles embedded within northwest flow aloft.

A stronger shortwave should progress southeastward across the region on Wednesday, bringing a 25 to 45 percent chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon hours. Beyond Wednesday, the weather pattern will feature mainly dry conditions, with high temperatures warming into the 60s for the weekend. The deterministic ECMWF and GFS both suggest an active weather pattern early next week, with additional showers, and the return to below average temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF valid period. KPIR comes the closest to sub-VFR (cigs) conditions on Tuesday when showers are expected to be working through south central South Dakota. The latest guidance keeps rain chances south of KPIR, so discontinued the PROB30 mention at KPIR for now.

ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.