textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1141 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- A surge of monsoon moisture will cross Thursday through Saturday with numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening mainly over central and western areas, except also over northeast areas on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is likely each day with a risk of flash flooding. Strong microburst wind gusts, small hail, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will also be possible.

- A Flood Watch for Flash Flooding is in effect for recent burn scars along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains on Thursday afternoon and early evening.

- There will be a downtick in the coverage and rainfall intensity of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday; however, a minor to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding will persist.

- After high temperatures near to below 1991-2020 averages during the latter half of this week, high temperatures will climb above the averages early next week. This will create moderate heat risk concerns in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Rich monsoon flow with embedded disturbances will stream northeastward over the forecast area tonight through Thursday night producing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some high resolution models, as well as the NAM12, favor northeast areas for locally heavy rainfall this evening, where a moist backdoor front will undercut the monsoon moisture. There could be an isolated flash flood there this evening, but there isn't much antecedent moisture today, so we aren't confident enough to issue a Flash Flood Watch there for this evening. The risk of flash flooding should be greatest on Thursday, when storms will be most numerous and PWATs will spike between 100-175% of normal, with the greatest deviation across the northeast. With this forecast package, we will issue a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for Thursday, for the recent burn scars on the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, including the Las Vegas and Ruidoso areas. The night shift may expand the Flood Watch for Thursday east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where the greatest rain falls tonight.

Otherwise, high temperatures look to fall a few to around 7 degrees on Thursday from today's readings thanks to the increased cloud cover and precipitation, as well as cooler air behind the moist backdoor front that dives into the forecast area tonight.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through Saturday as a disturbance crossing the Four Corners region from the upper Baja Peninsula continues to steer rich monsoon moisture across the forecast area. Locally heavy rainfall is expected both days with a risk of flash flooding mainly from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, with little or no rainfall expected farther east.

Drier air is forecast to filter over northern parts of the forecast area from the west Sunday and Monday, while an upper level high pressure system over the lower Mississippi River Valley keeps trying to funnel monsoon moisture northward over NM. This should result in a downtick in thunderstorm coverage north of I-40, with a greater risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding farther south. Some models depict another uptick in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity on Tuesday as another disturbance embedded in rich monsoon flow moves northward over NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Humidities are forecast to climb above 15 percent Thursday through Sunday as a surge of monsoon moisture crosses with locally heavy rainfall each day. Drier air moving in from the west should begin to decrease thunderstorm coverage and the size of wetting footprints over northern areas on Sunday and Monday. Minimum humidities will also plummet below 15 percent at lower elevations west central and northwest Monday, and potentially into Tuesday. Some models depict a resurgence of monsoon moisture northward over the forecast area again on Tuesday, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 91 65 92 / 30 30 30 20 Dulce........................... 49 87 48 89 / 40 60 40 50 Cuba............................ 58 85 57 86 / 50 60 50 50 Gallup.......................... 55 86 54 88 / 50 60 40 40 El Morro........................ 55 83 55 85 / 50 80 50 60 Grants.......................... 56 87 56 88 / 50 70 60 60 Quemado......................... 55 83 56 84 / 70 70 50 70 Magdalena....................... 62 85 62 84 / 30 60 50 60 Datil........................... 54 82 56 82 / 50 70 40 70 Reserve......................... 52 89 54 90 / 70 60 30 70 Glenwood........................ 57 92 59 93 / 70 50 30 60 Chama........................... 49 80 48 81 / 50 70 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 62 82 61 83 / 30 70 60 60 Pecos........................... 58 82 57 84 / 30 80 60 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 82 54 83 / 50 80 60 70 Red River....................... 45 72 46 74 / 40 90 60 70 Angel Fire...................... 42 75 45 76 / 30 80 70 70 Taos............................ 55 85 53 85 / 40 70 60 50 Mora............................ 51 78 51 81 / 30 80 70 60 Espanola........................ 62 91 61 91 / 30 60 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 62 84 61 85 / 30 70 60 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 88 59 88 / 30 60 50 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 91 68 91 / 40 50 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 93 67 93 / 40 50 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 95 66 95 / 40 50 50 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 93 67 93 / 30 50 50 20 Belen........................... 65 95 64 94 / 40 40 40 20 Bernalillo...................... 68 94 66 94 / 30 60 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 65 94 64 94 / 40 40 50 20 Corrales........................ 69 95 67 94 / 30 50 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 66 95 65 94 / 40 40 40 20 Placitas........................ 67 90 64 90 / 30 60 50 30 Rio Rancho...................... 68 93 66 93 / 30 50 50 30 Socorro......................... 69 97 69 96 / 10 40 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 59 86 / 40 60 50 40 Tijeras......................... 62 86 61 87 / 40 60 50 40 Edgewood........................ 57 86 57 86 / 40 60 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 87 56 88 / 40 60 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 57 80 57 82 / 40 60 40 40 Mountainair..................... 59 85 58 86 / 40 60 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 59 85 59 85 / 30 60 40 60 Carrizozo....................... 65 88 65 87 / 20 60 30 60 Ruidoso......................... 59 80 59 79 / 20 70 20 80 Capulin......................... 54 81 55 84 / 60 90 60 30 Raton........................... 54 82 55 86 / 40 80 60 40 Springer........................ 57 85 56 89 / 40 80 60 40 Las Vegas....................... 55 80 55 84 / 40 80 60 40 Clayton......................... 60 83 62 90 / 90 70 80 5 Roy............................. 58 83 59 87 / 40 60 60 10 Conchas......................... 65 91 64 94 / 40 40 60 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 88 63 90 / 30 30 40 10 Tucumcari....................... 63 89 63 92 / 30 20 50 0 Clovis.......................... 67 93 66 94 / 10 20 40 0 Portales........................ 68 95 67 95 / 10 20 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 94 66 94 / 10 20 30 5 Roswell......................... 72 97 71 99 / 5 20 20 10 Picacho......................... 64 90 64 89 / 10 50 20 40 Elk............................. 62 86 61 86 / 10 60 30 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ214-215-227>232.

Flood Watch Thursday afternoon for NMZ226.