textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain eastward and southwest mountains today with less activity on Wednesday. Increased storms will develop Thursday through early next week, especially east of the central mountain chain where scattered strong to severe storms will develop.

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley, northwest plateau, and potentially the Glenwood area Wednesday through Friday, and also in Roswell starting Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The monsoon high will stay near the AZ-NM border today and tonight, jogging slightly westward into Wednesday as it also remains strong. This will tend to steer storms southward in much of our forecast area with slightly stronger flow of 10-15 kt at 500 mb suggesting the pace to be a tad quicker than yesterday, but a few terrain-anchored storms will still be slow and erratic. Moisture is best rooted over southern and eastern NM where PWATs are above 0.75 inch and areas southeast of a Ruidoso to Tucumcari line are above 1.0 inch. The shear is also quite high today over the eastern half of NM where a Marginal Risk from SPC is outlined. Southerly low level inflow contrasted by the northerly mid level flow will create 0-6 km bulk shear of 25 to 35 kt through the evening, and higher values of deeper layer shear is likely, especially in the northeast where a 300 mb speed max of 40-50 kt will help vent any storms there. As for the Sacramento burn scars, it will be messy with storms surrounding the area, emitting convective cold pools that will spawn new storms, although no direct hits are currently being indicated by CAMs. On the western fringe of the deeper moisture, storms will struggle, but a few isolated high-based dry storms or virga showers will develop through the early evening. Storms will fill in toward the southeastern corner of the forecast area this evening before mostly dying out by midnight.

While some evening outflows may provide brief upticks in low layer moisture, the drier air is expected to inch farther east and south into Wednesday. The high may also gain a decameter of strength with some capping inversions likely setting up, and this will reduce the number of storms with temperatures gaining a degree or two. Storm initiation points would likely not be all that different than today (southwestern mountains and central mountain chain), but the coverage should be much lower Wednesday afternoon. Our Heat Advisory criteria is 100 F in the ABQ metro, and current forecast package has the valley reaching 99 F, and while it feels like splitting hairs, we'll hold off on any advisory issuance for now. Criteria is higher in Socorro (105 F), so we'll hold off there too.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The upper high will get shoved southwestward into Thursday as a belt of westerlies dips into the central Rockies and ushers in a shortwave trough. This will introduce stronger 15-25 kt flow at 500 mb over northern NM, giving more shear while some upward forcing is drawn in. Directional shear will remain high over eastern zones, and a contraction of a ribbon of moisture over southwestern to eastern NM will occur, helping to generate stronger storms along and east of the central mountain chain. A subtle uptick in isolated to scattered storms over central to southwestern zones will also occur Thursday. Temperature guidance still remain quite high for Thursday, making it the hottest day of the week for several locations before storms reach peak coverage.

The high is modeled to stay displaced well southwest of NM into Friday with the westerlies over northern parts of the state relaxing slightly, but not disappearing. This regime will send drier air farther into more of western NM, but the passage of Thursday's shortwave and attendant convection will send a boundary into the eastern half of the state. Upslope flow and low layer moisture/surface convergence on the east slopes of the central mountain chain look to yield the best prospects for storms Friday with enough shear present for strong to severe cells. A gusty east canyon wind is then projected for vulnerable central NM locales as moist outflows surge westward Friday night through Saturday morning.

The upper high should stay positioned over southern CA and nearby Pacific waters this weekend and early next week, keeping less subsidence over NM and allowing moisture to gradually creep a bit, but generally stay rooted over southern and eastern NM. The GFS/GEFS solutions really like this scenario, boasting higher QPF Saturday, Sunday, and Monday over eastern zones with more subdued amounts from the ECMWF/ENS.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will track south and southeastward along the central mountain chain and adjacent high plains Wednesday afternoon, and also over the southwest mountains, at speeds around 10-15 KT. One of the most likely airports to be impacted will be KSRR, where high resolution models show at least two rounds of thunderstorms crossing from the north, one during mid afternoon and the other closer to sunset. Atmospheric moisture is trending downward, so there will be some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms in the mix mainly west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the Jemez Mountains, including KSAF, and also over the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Stronger thunderstorms and virga showers Wednesday afternoon and evening will be capable of producing microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storms should mostly end by midnight Wednesday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist today over northwestern to west central NM where low afternoon humidity of 10-15 percent will be reached. Outside of these areas, storm chances increase with the best prospects in the southwestern high country and also along and east of the central mountain chain through the evening. A similar area will observe storms again on Wednesday, but with much less coverage while temperatures gain a degree or two under the strengthening upper high. Humidity will plummet further in western zones down to less than 10 percent in many areas with the middle Rio Grande valley also falling below 15 percent Wednesday afternoon. Consequently, any storms that are able to develop west of the central mountain chain Wednesday will likely produce dry lightning and minimal wetting rainfall. An upper level disturbance crossing near the NM-CO border will bring an increase in storms on Thursday, particularly in northeastern to east central NM where strong cells can be anticipated, but the southwestern mountains should also trend more active. High pressure will stay southwest of NM Friday through early next week, keeping deeper monsoon moisture rooted over the southwest mountains and along and east of the central mountain chain where scattered to numerous storms will develop daily. Elsewhere, drier conditions are forecast with temperatures hovering near to just slightly above seasonal expectations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 100 65 99 / 0 0 10 0 Dulce........................... 48 95 50 93 / 0 5 10 10 Cuba............................ 57 93 60 93 / 0 5 10 20 Gallup.......................... 53 96 58 96 / 0 5 20 10 El Morro........................ 59 92 60 91 / 5 10 20 20 Grants.......................... 56 95 60 96 / 0 10 20 20 Quemado......................... 59 94 63 93 / 10 20 30 40 Magdalena....................... 65 92 69 93 / 10 10 10 50 Datil........................... 59 90 62 91 / 10 20 20 50 Reserve......................... 58 99 60 98 / 20 30 30 50 Glenwood........................ 63 103 65 103 / 20 40 30 50 Chama........................... 51 89 52 87 / 0 10 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 63 88 65 90 / 5 20 5 30 Pecos........................... 59 88 60 91 / 5 30 5 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 89 59 88 / 5 10 5 40 Red River....................... 48 80 50 79 / 0 10 5 50 Angel Fire...................... 41 82 44 82 / 0 20 5 50 Taos............................ 54 91 56 91 / 0 10 5 30 Mora............................ 52 85 54 88 / 5 30 5 40 Espanola........................ 61 97 65 97 / 5 10 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 63 91 65 92 / 5 20 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 94 64 96 / 5 10 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 96 73 99 / 10 10 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 97 73 100 / 10 10 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 100 71 102 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 98 72 101 / 10 5 5 20 Belen........................... 65 99 70 101 / 10 0 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 66 99 71 101 / 10 10 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 64 99 69 101 / 10 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 67 100 72 102 / 10 5 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 66 98 71 101 / 10 0 5 20 Placitas........................ 66 95 69 98 / 5 10 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 98 72 101 / 10 5 5 20 Socorro......................... 69 101 73 103 / 10 5 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 91 65 93 / 10 10 5 20 Tijeras......................... 63 92 68 95 / 10 10 5 20 Edgewood........................ 56 92 60 94 / 5 20 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 92 59 96 / 5 20 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 58 87 60 89 / 5 20 5 20 Mountainair..................... 59 90 64 93 / 10 20 5 30 Gran Quivira.................... 59 89 63 93 / 10 20 5 30 Carrizozo....................... 65 92 68 95 / 30 20 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 59 84 61 88 / 30 30 20 40 Capulin......................... 56 87 58 88 / 20 10 5 50 Raton........................... 56 90 55 91 / 5 10 5 50 Springer........................ 56 92 57 93 / 5 20 5 40 Las Vegas....................... 55 88 58 90 / 10 20 5 30 Clayton......................... 63 93 66 94 / 20 10 5 20 Roy............................. 59 89 62 91 / 10 10 5 20 Conchas......................... 64 97 68 99 / 10 10 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 61 93 65 96 / 10 20 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 63 94 68 96 / 10 10 5 5 Clovis.......................... 65 95 67 97 / 30 5 5 0 Portales........................ 64 96 67 98 / 30 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 95 68 98 / 20 10 5 5 Roswell......................... 69 98 70 101 / 20 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 62 92 65 97 / 20 20 10 10 Elk............................. 60 90 63 95 / 20 20 5 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ201.