textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 402 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Very cold air will cause hazardous low temperatures in the teens and single digits along with wind chills in the single digits to near zero for portions of western and northern NM Sunday morning.

- Low forecast confidence exists that patches of freezing fog will result in hazardous driving conditions across northern and western valley locations early Sunday morning.

- A warming trend will begin Sunday, with temperatures rising above average areawide by mid week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1052 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

An upper high offshore of SoCal is forecast to gradually drift east and expand a ridge axis toward the southern Rockies and NM through Sunday, providing a very stable atmosphere and fair weather conditions. The lack of mixing of the lower boundary layer will keep a lid on high temperatures and trap water vapor from melting snow near the surface, potentially resulting in areas of freezing fog early Sunday morning across northern and central NM. While the forecast of freezing fog tonight fits with our conceptual model, there is a lack of support in the 12Z model suite, forecast soundings and associated MOS. So, low forecast confidence (20-30%) at this time on the need for a Freezing Fog Advisory overnight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, a warming trend will begin Sunday, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than today's and generally within a few degrees of average.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1052 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

The upper high offshore of Socal will center over northern CA by Monday, then strengthen to near 588dam at 500mb and expand across much of the Intermountain West through Tuesday. The result will be increasing pressure heights and temperatures across NM, with a continued warming trend and temperatures rising above average most areas by Tuesday. A high amplitude upper level trough is forecast to carve out over the eastern US from Tuesday through Thursday, increasing north-northwest flow aloft over NM and allowing for a backdoor cold front across eastern NM on Wednesday. The upper high is forecast to drift back west over the Pacific from mid through late week, allowing stronger northerly flow aloft over the region and an even stronger cold front on Friday. The 12Z GFS is showing an upper level trough moving south over NM/AZ Friday night into Saturday and interacting with upslope from the backdoor front to produce a round of snow across eastern NM. However, the latest GFS is an outlier at this time and we have very low forecast confidence on any precipitation next Fri/Sat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 402 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Low confidence (20-30%) exists that patchy areas of freezing fog will develop early Sunday morning across northern and central valley locations. Light winds will prevail, except a breezy northerly drainage wind will develop at KSAF around sunrise. These breezes will diminish Sunday aftn.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1052 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A slow warming/drying trend will begin Sunday, with temperatures rising above average areawide by mid week as an upper level high strengthens and expands over the Intermountain West. A backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM on Wednesday, followed by a stronger cold front that will drop temperatures areawide on Fri/Sat. Otherwise, a very stable atmosphere will provide stubborn temperature inversions and poor ventilation through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 10 43 18 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 11 48 15 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 9 43 15 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 3 43 6 46 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 9 43 13 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 6 46 8 50 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 10 43 12 47 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 21 43 23 46 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 16 42 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 11 51 13 56 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 14 56 17 59 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 15 43 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 20 41 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 15 44 19 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 8 41 12 46 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 8 35 13 42 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... -12 41 -1 48 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 5 43 9 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 15 48 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 13 46 16 52 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 18 41 22 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 14 43 16 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 23 46 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 22 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 18 48 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 20 47 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 15 47 15 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 20 48 23 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 14 47 16 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 19 48 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 15 47 16 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 21 45 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 21 48 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 22 49 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 20 42 23 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 19 43 21 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 17 44 20 46 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 9 46 10 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 15 43 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 15 44 18 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 17 46 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 24 51 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 18 45 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 13 41 18 49 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 8 42 11 52 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 6 43 6 50 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 12 47 17 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 19 47 24 54 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 15 47 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 15 56 18 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 19 51 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 16 56 20 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 20 55 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 18 56 19 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 18 53 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 19 53 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 22 51 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 18 51 20 57 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.