textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the continental divide this evening will be capable of producing lightning, hail, strong winds, and blowing dust. There is a marginal risk of severe storms over eastern areas. - Hot, dry, and breezy-to-windy conditions that increase the risk of rapid fire spread across the northwest plateau Tuesday, will expand to more of Western and central New Mexico Wednesday.

- Hazardous heat is forecast in the central valley Wednesday, and also across the eastern plains, as high temperatures challenge daily records.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today's crop of daytime heating initiated convection is maturing rapidly early this afternoon and severe thunderstorm warnings have already been issued near Taos and Santa Fe. Much of eastern NM remains in the marginal risk area on the SPC day 1 convective outlook and this matches well with the NAM forecast of 0-6km bulk shear of 40-45kts, muCAPE of 2,500J/kg and LIs of -6C. The latest CAMS roll this round of convection southeast out across the plains through 03Z, with potential for a storm or two to linger along the TX border through 05Z.

Increasing dry northwest flow aloft will be the story on Tuesday, bringing hotter conditions to central and western NM. Deep layer mixing of the atmosphere will bring gusty northwest winds to much of the area by mid/late Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer areawide on Tuesday, with highs generally 5 or so degrees above average for mid June.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Dry northwest flow will expand east across the region Wednesday and bring gusty downslope winds and the hottest temperatures so far this year, with highs approaching record values at a number of locales. There is a high chance (70-90%) that a round of Heat Advisories will be required Wednesday and a low chance (10-20%) that an Extreme Heat Warning may be required for the Chaves County Plains where Roswell will approach a high of 110 degrees. The models have been consistently bringing moisture up into Catron County on Wednesday afternoon that would be sufficient to produce a round of mostly dry storms, favoring strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting (>0.10") rain. A backdoor front is still on track to replenish moisture and take the edge off of the heat across eastern NM on Thursday. A round of daytime heating triggered convection is forecast late Thursday, but PWATs will be low so expect a mix of wet/dry convection that favors strong/erratic wind gusts as the primary thunderstorm hazard. The front will surge through the central mountain chain Thursday evening, creating a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Friday's round of daytime heating triggered storms will likely be more rainfall productive along and east of the central mountain chain, bringing back an elevated burn scar flash flood threat in Lincoln County. However, virga showers and dry storms will likely be the case across western NM late day Friday. Dry westerly flow will take over this weekend, confining chances for convection closer to the TX/OK borders.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Through eastern NM, a severe line of storms is pushing through Quay County into Curry and Roosevelt Counties. Gusts between 50-55kts have been recorded with this line as it pushes to the southeast. Expecting this line to reach KCVN between 01-02z. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop near KROW between 01- 04z, though confidence is slightly lower in this. All storms are expected to be out of the area by 04-06z. Elsewhere, breezy northwest winds taper off overnight, leaving rather light winds overall at TAF sites. South winds will remain at KROW through the overnight hours. KROW also has chances to see MVFR ceilings early tomorrow morning, though there is low to moderate confidence in the timing. The best chances currently are between 12-15z, but could begin as early as 09z. Clouds erode across the state through the morning tomorrow as gusty west to northwest winds increase throughout tomorrow afternoon. Gusts up to 35-40kts may be observed across northwest NM near KFMN, with lesser gusts elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NM, THEN EXPAND TO INCLUDE CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY...

One more round of wetting storms this afternoon and evening across central and eastern areas, while western areas see dry storms that will be capable creating new ignitions. Increasing northwest flow aloft will progress east across the region from Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing significant drying and heating with deep layer mixing that will create strong wind gusts by afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Tuesday across the Northwest Plateau, followed by poor humidity recovery and a more expansive critical area on Wednesday that will extend into central NM. Many hours of single digit humidity are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday in central and northwest NM. A backdoor front will bring increased humidity to eastern NM on Thursday, while western NM remains hot and dry with the potential for virga showers and dry storms. A combination of dry and wetting storms are forecast Friday, before dry westerly flow takes over Saturday and Sunday. Chances for critical fire weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday are low at this time due to lower wind speeds, but worth monitoring for change and would be more probable across western NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 95 58 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 91 45 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 89 56 91 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 50 93 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 52 90 55 91 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 51 93 56 94 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 90 59 90 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 91 65 93 / 20 0 0 0 Datil........................... 57 89 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 94 51 93 / 5 0 0 30 Glenwood........................ 54 98 55 97 / 10 0 0 20 Chama........................... 44 85 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 89 63 92 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 50 89 56 92 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 85 52 88 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 42 76 46 80 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 37 80 41 84 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 48 88 52 91 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 48 85 54 90 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 55 95 59 98 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 89 59 93 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 93 57 96 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 94 68 98 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 96 66 100 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 98 62 102 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 96 64 100 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 99 63 102 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 97 63 101 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 57 98 61 101 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 97 63 101 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 99 61 102 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 61 94 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 96 65 100 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 99 71 104 / 20 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 90 61 92 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 58 92 62 95 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 54 92 60 95 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 93 55 96 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 52 89 58 92 / 20 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 92 60 95 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 55 91 60 95 / 20 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 93 65 97 / 20 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 84 60 90 / 30 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 85 53 93 / 30 5 0 0 Raton........................... 47 90 51 97 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 48 91 52 98 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 49 89 57 94 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 55 89 61 100 / 30 10 0 0 Roy............................. 52 88 57 97 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 57 97 61 104 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 95 64 101 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 59 96 65 105 / 30 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 59 93 64 103 / 40 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 94 65 104 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 59 96 64 104 / 40 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 98 65 109 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 94 64 100 / 30 5 0 0 Elk............................. 55 89 61 95 / 20 10 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125.