textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 502 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Breezy to windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth today, mainly across northeast NM.

- A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts this afternoon across southeast and portions of east central NM.

- The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up late in the weekend through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The jet stream is lifting northward away from NM and the persistent troughing pattern will diminish through Friday, allowing pressure heights to increase with a warming trend. Lee side troughing will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to eastern NM this afternoon and evening. Sufficient Gulf moisture remains across southeast portions of the area to produce isolated to scattered daytime heating initiated convection, though in an atmosphere with less shear than the past couple of days. The latest NAM is advertising dCAPE of greater than 2,500J/kg this afternoon across the east central and southeast plains, so don't be surprised if this crop produces severe wind gusts. Convection will be even more limited in coverage Friday. The CAMs favor the South Central Mountains for initiation, so the burn scar flash flood threat is non-zero in Ruidoso. That said, convection will be high-based and inefficient rainfall producers so probabilities for significant impacts on/near the burn scars in Lincoln County are very low.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The Monsoon high is forecast to build over the region this weekend and PWATs will climb, especially across eastern NM where a convectively aided backdoor front will boost low level moisture. The upper high will creep westward across the region through the middle of next week, allowing PWATs to continue a slow climb and bringing increasing coverage of daily rounds of convection. The burn scar flash flood threat will increase during this period as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with a couple of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible at KROW in showers and storms this afternoon and early evening, but probabilities are very low at this time. Smoke from area wildfires will begin to increase in the airspace through the period with potential impacts at KABQ/KAEG and KFMN overnight, although conditions will likely remain VFR even with smoke.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The jet stream is lifting north away from the region, which is bringing an end to the troughing pattern that has been in place for the past week. However, a very dry airmass is spreading slowly eastward across the state and a lee side trough will deepen sufficiently later today to bring critical fire weather conditions to northeast NM. Further south across the east central and southeast plains, chances for wetting storms will persist, but with lower coverage than the past couple of days. Many hours of single digit humidity are forecast across western and north central NM both today and Friday. The Monsoon high will build over the region from Friday through the weekend, bringing an end to near-critical and critical fire weather conditions due to significantly lower wind speeds and improved humidity. Chances for wetting storms will trend up from east to west across the area from late weekend through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 53 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 40 89 42 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 87 52 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 86 44 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 85 49 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 90 49 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 51 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 89 59 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 85 53 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 91 46 94 52 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 95 53 98 58 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 81 42 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 86 53 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 81 40 81 41 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 34 81 36 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 86 48 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 85 51 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 93 55 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 86 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 60 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 63 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 97 59 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 95 62 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 96 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 96 62 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 96 59 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 91 63 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 95 62 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 99 65 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 91 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 51 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 86 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 91 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 89 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 92 62 93 64 / 5 5 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 85 57 86 59 / 20 10 20 0 Capulin......................... 88 53 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 91 51 93 51 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 93 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 88 54 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 95 63 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 91 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 99 64 101 64 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 94 61 96 62 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 98 67 100 68 / 10 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 93 66 96 67 / 20 20 0 0 Portales........................ 94 66 97 67 / 20 20 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 65 98 67 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 96 68 99 70 / 20 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 60 94 63 / 20 10 10 0 Elk............................. 90 58 91 60 / 30 10 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.