textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days.

- Strong to damaging wind gusts will accompany showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A few storms may also produce small hail. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations along and west of the Rio Grande Valley today, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. Moderate heat risk returns Sunday across northwest NM.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Allowed Flash Flood Watch for Lincoln County to expire at 6 PM MDT. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact mainly northern and eastern Lincoln County this evening.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms forming over the high terrain will continue to expand in coverage through the afternoon. Storms over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will slide south-southeast across the eastern plains through the evening. Storms over the southwest and south central mountains will have a tendency to drift toward the south or southwest. However, outflow boundaries may result in erratic storm motions with all storms. Outside of the southwest mountains, it will remain mainly dry west of the Central Mountain Chain, however, the influx of moisture overnight thanks to the gap wind will allow for another round of virga showers with gusty winds and localized areas of blowing dust. A dry lightning strike also can't be ruled out. All storms will be capable of strong to damaging winds as well as small hail through this evening.

Storms across eastern NM will push an outflow boundary through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain again this evening. Gusts greater than 40 mph are expected and this will again replenish moisture across western NM. Most storms should diminish by the midnight hour.

The large upper high will shift over WY on Sunday allowing for deep easterly flow over NM. This will allow PWATs to climb areawide with most areas around 0.75 to 1.25 inches by afternoon with the highest PWAT values noted across eastern NM. This increase in PWAT should allow for more widespread convection, but models finally seem to be on the same page that drier air above 500 mb will move over NM Sunday morning. This will limit storm depth and likely result in airmass or popcorn convection across much of the CWA and CAM QPF output appears to corroborate this. However, it does appear the greatest storm coverage will be across eastern NM. There could still be a few strong or severe storms across the southeast quarter of the CWA where the upper level dry air does not quite reach and some higher instability exists. Storm motion will be from east to west or northeast to southwest around 10-15 mph. Though there will be easterly synoptic flow through the afternoon, it does appear another increase in gap winds across ABQ and SAF will be felt Sunday evening. A few showers and thunderstorms will also linger through the overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

There is not much change from Sunday into Monday. There still appears to be drier air above H5 over at least the northern half of the state, and a little higher instability over the southeast quadrant of the CWA. Though the upper high will shift over the upper Midwest, easterly flow remains over NM, thus a similar setup is in store for Monday. One small change may be the presence of a weak disturbance shifting westward across northern NM and CO. This disturbance may help increase storm coverage over north central and northwest areas.

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week as near to above normal moisture remains in place, but there are some caveats. Tuesday could be a little quieter across eastern NM as models are indicating deeper dry air across mid and upper levels. Meanwhile, we've been watching a pronounced disturbance take the scenic route around the upper high, from NE/KS, now over IL, and over the next few days, it will shift back toward the south and west. By Wednesday, it should be over AR, but another weak upper low will develop ahead of it in southwest TX. By Thursday, these two features look to merge into an inverted trough which now looks to shift over NM on Friday. There's often subsidence ahead of these easterly waves/inverted troughs which would somewhat limit the amount of thunderstorm coverage on Wed/Thu, but coverage could ramp up again on Friday as the trough moves overhead. Wouldn't be surprised to see PoPs trend downward Wed/Thu in future updates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A broad cluster of showers and thunderstorms over east central areas early this evening is forecast to propagate southward over southeast areas during mid-to-late evening. These will most likely impact KROW, and they may extend as far west as KSRR. Meanwhile, showers and storms over the lower Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys, as well as the far southwest mountains will gradually diminish. A gusty east wind will also continue below canyons opening into the central valley this evening, then models depict it weakening around midnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. However, very dry conditions persist across northwest NM today with several hours of single digit RH. Moisture that pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain last night will allow for virga and a few dry thunderstorms to develop near and just east of the ContDvd this afternoon. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will roll off the higher terrain through the afternoon and evening hours. All storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds, and the stronger storms will be capable of hail and locally heavy rainfall. Storms will generally move toward the south through the evening. An outflow boundary emanating from storms across eastern NM will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain again this evening, bringing strong easterly winds to the Rio Grande Valley. Airmass or popcorn convection is expected on Sunday and Monday. Though nearly any location could receive a storm, most storms will be short- lived. Gusty winds will remain possible, however. A few stronger storms are expected across east central NM. Storm motion both Sun and Mon will be toward the west around 5 to 15 mph. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain on tap through the end of next week, though storm coverage will vary day-to-day. Temperatures will gradually trend downward by a degree or two each day through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 99 66 95 / 0 5 20 30 Dulce........................... 54 93 53 90 / 5 10 30 50 Cuba............................ 59 89 57 86 / 0 20 10 40 Gallup.......................... 60 93 59 90 / 5 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 59 88 58 85 / 10 10 30 10 Grants.......................... 61 91 59 88 / 5 10 20 10 Quemado......................... 61 88 59 86 / 10 30 20 20 Magdalena....................... 64 86 62 84 / 10 10 20 10 Datil........................... 60 84 58 82 / 10 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 56 90 55 88 / 10 50 30 50 Glenwood........................ 59 92 59 91 / 30 70 40 70 Chama........................... 50 85 50 82 / 5 20 20 60 Los Alamos...................... 64 86 62 83 / 5 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 55 86 54 83 / 5 40 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 85 54 83 / 10 30 10 60 Red River....................... 48 75 46 74 / 5 30 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 39 79 42 78 / 0 30 20 40 Taos............................ 54 88 53 86 / 0 30 10 50 Mora............................ 52 81 52 79 / 5 40 30 30 Espanola........................ 62 93 62 91 / 0 20 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 61 86 60 84 / 5 40 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 89 59 88 / 5 30 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 92 66 90 / 5 20 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 93 68 91 / 5 20 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 94 65 92 / 5 10 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 93 66 91 / 5 10 10 10 Belen........................... 64 95 64 92 / 10 10 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 66 95 65 93 / 5 20 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 63 93 62 91 / 10 10 10 10 Corrales........................ 66 94 65 92 / 5 20 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 63 94 62 91 / 10 10 10 10 Placitas........................ 68 90 68 88 / 5 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 94 66 92 / 5 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 69 96 69 93 / 10 20 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 87 60 85 / 5 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 61 88 60 86 / 5 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 59 88 59 86 / 10 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 89 55 87 / 10 20 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 84 55 82 / 30 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 58 88 58 86 / 20 20 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 86 58 84 / 20 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 65 89 64 86 / 30 20 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 58 79 57 75 / 20 30 30 50 Capulin......................... 54 84 54 83 / 10 20 10 5 Raton........................... 53 87 55 87 / 10 30 20 5 Springer........................ 53 88 55 87 / 10 30 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 53 84 54 82 / 20 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 62 89 61 88 / 20 20 10 0 Roy............................. 59 85 59 84 / 50 20 20 5 Conchas......................... 63 93 64 91 / 60 20 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 63 89 63 86 / 60 20 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 65 93 64 91 / 30 20 20 20 Clovis.......................... 66 89 63 87 / 20 50 30 30 Portales........................ 67 91 64 89 / 20 50 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 66 92 65 89 / 50 40 30 20 Roswell......................... 70 94 68 89 / 40 30 50 30 Picacho......................... 63 88 62 84 / 30 30 40 40 Elk............................. 59 84 58 80 / 10 30 60 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201.