textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1114 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The 18Z RAOB is mostly unchanged in the last 24-hrs at KABQ with a PWAT of 1.15", H5 temps near -3C, and weak steering flow. The H5 high center over northeast NM is keeping a lid on storm development east of the central mt chain with only isolated activity across the northern and western high terrain. Any cells that do form thru late today will still be capable of producing small footprints of heavy rainfall amounts >1.5". A subtle shortwave trough and weak surface boundary moving across eastern CO today will spawn a well-defined areas of storms in that area tonight. This convection is likely to force a stronger surface boundary southwest into northeast NM late tonight. The boundary has trended stronger on recent model guidance. A few showers and storms are also possible overnight as the outflow boundary surges into the area.

The surface boundary will be draped along the east slopes of the central mt chain Tuesday morning while rich moisture and weak steering flow persist beneath the monsoon high. Robust convection is shown by various CAMs to erupt along the central high terrain where surface convergence is enhanced from the lingering boundary. Hi-res ensemble model QPF distributions show heavy rainfall likely from any storms (>1.5"). Steering flow with the main high centroid over eastern NM will be slow and erratic toward the north and west. Convective outflows then force storms into nearby lowlands to include the Santa Fe metro southward along the RGV. Confidence was high enough to issue a Flood Watch Tuesday from the Sangre de Cristo Mts southwest across parts of central NM into the western high terrain. Heavy rainfall may occur in the ABQ metro as well depending on how outflows converge. The heat will be a concern Tuesday with many areas in the upper 90s to low 100s, so Heat Advisories are also in effect.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Convective outflows and remnant MCVs from the storms Tuesday will provide additional lift for storms Wednesday. There is no notable change in the placement of the H5 high center over eastern NM and little change to mid level temps or steering flow. The NBM90th percentile QPF envelope trends a little lower Wednesday but many footprints are still >0.75" in several areas around the higher terrain. These amounts will likely trend higher as hi-res CAMs get into the mix. More Heat Advisories are also likely for parts of the area.

By Thursday, the H5 high is shown drifting west into central NM while strengthening to near 598dm. This will most likely result in a slight downtick in storm coverage with a return to greater coverage of Heat Advisories. A repeat in convection over eastern CO Thursday may force another boundary southwest into eastern NM Thursday night. This would spark another uptick in storm coverage Friday and perhaps Saturday as the H5 high center drifts west into northeast AZ.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue across northeast NM as well as across the Southwest Mountains late this evening. These storms, especially those across the Southwest Mtns, should persist through at least 10Z before diminishing. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon with storms focusing across the high terrain. Storms should roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountain to the southeast while storms across western NM should shift slowly to the north or northwest. Storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, IFR or lower vsbys, and gusty winds in excess of 40kt. Showers and thunderstorms should continue past 06Z Wed before slowly diminishing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

There is no critical fire weather forecast. Temperatures will be very hot areawide. The main concern is for new lightning starts in patchy dry fuels. A strong monsoon high across northern NM will meander west into northern AZ by late week. The greatest risk for locally heavy rainfall will be over the northern and western high terrain where localized amounts of 1 to 2" are possible. Flash flooding may occur, especially around burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 68 100 69 98 / 0 5 20 10 Dulce........................... 56 97 57 94 / 0 20 40 30 Cuba............................ 63 95 62 91 / 0 20 50 20 Gallup.......................... 61 92 60 92 / 10 40 40 30 El Morro........................ 59 88 59 88 / 20 60 50 50 Grants.......................... 63 93 62 92 / 10 30 50 40 Quemado......................... 61 89 60 89 / 30 60 40 50 Magdalena....................... 68 92 67 91 / 20 30 30 40 Datil........................... 64 88 61 88 / 30 50 40 40 Reserve......................... 60 95 60 94 / 20 60 20 40 Glenwood........................ 64 100 63 98 / 20 60 30 30 Chama........................... 55 89 55 86 / 5 30 50 40 Los Alamos...................... 69 92 66 89 / 20 50 50 50 Pecos........................... 64 92 60 89 / 20 60 50 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 89 58 86 / 40 50 40 50 Red River....................... 53 80 51 77 / 50 60 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 52 84 49 82 / 30 60 30 60 Taos............................ 61 92 60 90 / 20 50 30 30 Mora............................ 60 89 58 86 / 30 70 50 60 Espanola........................ 69 100 67 95 / 10 40 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 69 93 65 90 / 10 50 40 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 66 97 64 93 / 10 30 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 99 70 96 / 5 30 50 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 100 70 98 / 5 20 50 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 103 70 100 / 5 20 50 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 100 71 98 / 5 20 40 10 Belen........................... 71 103 70 100 / 10 20 50 5 Bernalillo...................... 71 102 70 99 / 5 20 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 69 102 68 99 / 10 20 60 10 Corrales........................ 72 102 70 99 / 5 20 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 71 102 69 99 / 10 20 50 10 Placitas........................ 71 97 69 95 / 5 30 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 72 101 70 98 / 5 20 40 20 Socorro......................... 75 104 74 101 / 5 20 40 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 94 64 90 / 10 40 50 40 Tijeras......................... 67 95 64 92 / 10 40 60 30 Edgewood........................ 64 97 62 93 / 20 50 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 97 59 94 / 20 50 60 30 Clines Corners.................. 63 92 61 90 / 30 40 50 20 Mountainair..................... 63 96 62 93 / 10 40 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 65 95 63 93 / 10 30 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 71 98 69 96 / 10 20 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 66 91 65 88 / 10 20 10 10 Capulin......................... 61 89 58 88 / 40 70 70 70 Raton........................... 61 94 58 91 / 40 80 40 50 Springer........................ 63 96 60 94 / 30 70 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 63 92 60 89 / 30 50 50 40 Clayton......................... 70 98 66 96 / 20 20 50 30 Roy............................. 67 95 63 92 / 20 40 50 20 Conchas......................... 71 103 68 101 / 20 20 40 10 Santa Rosa...................... 68 99 67 98 / 20 10 40 0 Tucumcari....................... 73 105 70 102 / 20 5 30 10 Clovis.......................... 70 104 70 101 / 0 5 10 5 Portales........................ 71 104 71 101 / 0 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 105 71 101 / 5 5 10 0 Roswell......................... 75 107 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 70 101 69 97 / 5 5 5 0 Elk............................. 67 99 66 93 / 5 5 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ204>209-211-212-214-215-218-221-228-229-241.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ201-217-219- 220-234>238.