textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over the far eastern NM Thursday afternoon and evening.

- A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail also exists on Friday afternoon and evening across far east central NM.

- After a quieter weekend, chances for thunderstorms will trend back up early next week, peaking on Tuesday across eastern NM where severe storms can not be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 135 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Patchy low clouds will persist along and east of the Central Mountain Chain through early morning before eroding. Otherwise, the remainder of tonight will be quiet as the easterly canyon winds have already decreased.

After the low clouds erode, enough insolation will be present to destabilize areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, despite lingering high clouds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop between 19-21Z along the pseudo- dryline extending from near Raton, to Vaughn, to eastern Lincoln County. These showers and thunderstorms may become more numerous as they march eastward across the eastern plains of NM. The greatest instability will exist across far eastern NM where low level dewpoints in the 50s are less likely to mix out. Around 1500-1800 J/KG of MLCAPE and 25-30kt of 0-6km shear will allow for a few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds the main threats in this area. Nonetheless, relatively low confidence exists that more than one or two severe storms will occur based on the lack of forcing today, except across far northeast NM where some forcing is noted from the shortwave crossing the Central Rockies.

Low level moisture tonight will not surge westward as far as previous nights, and generally speaking will mix out further Friday afternoon. The one caveat will be a backdoor cold front that pushes into northeast and east central NM during the day. It's likely that a few storms will develop on the frontal boundary before shifting eastward toward Texas on Friday afternoon. Once again, around 30kt of shear and instability along the front will allow for a few strong to severe storms to develop.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

The backdoor front will continue to push south and west through Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing a brief breezy gap wind into the Rio Grande Valley Saturday morning. Later Saturday, ridging will build over the Desert Southwest. Enough low level moisture will remain present for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. A strong storm still appears possible across northeast NM, otherwise, storms should be more garden variety. The ridge over NM will strengthen further on Sunday, thus, storm coverage will trend downward and any storm that develops will be garden variety. With H5 heights rising and cloud cover/storms decreasing, temperatures will trend upward. All areas will be at or above normal by Sunday afternoon after being at or below normal today through Saturday.

On Monday, a shortwave trough will quickly slide eastward over SoCal and AZ. Southerly flow will increase moisture across NM and as the shortwave approaches, showers and thunderstorms should develop favoring areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain. The shortwave will continue to shift eastward across NM Monday night and Tuesday. This will keep showers and thunderstorms persisting through the overnight hours favoring nearly any location. By Tuesday afternoon, there is potential for the dryline to sharpen near the Central Mountain Chain as drier air filters in behind the trough axis. Whether it sharpens or not, low level Gulf moisture will have been advecting into eastern NM and the combination of upslope flow and the trough should provide enough ascent for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across eastern NM. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, but this will depend on how much overnight activity there was and how much cloud cover persists. Drier air will continue to push into the state from the west on Wednesday, but low level moisture is expected to remain at least across far eastern NM. Thus, isolated storms remain possible Wednesday afternoon across the eastern plains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

A mix of low VFR, MVFR, IFR and LIFR cigs and vsbys exist across eastern NM. Localized fog has been reported at KCAO and low clouds have filled in across eastern NM over the last several hours. KROW remains the only TAF impacted, and low clouds are expected to erode at this location around 15Z. Elsewhere, low clouds/fog should erode between 15 and 17Z. This afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM btw 19Z and 21Z and will shift eastward toward the Texas border through early evening. Low to moderate confidence exists that a few strong to briefly severe storms will develop, with hail and gusty winds the main concerns. Though one or two storms may persist across eastern NM, most storms will have exited the state by 02Z Fri. Thereafter, scattered low cigs will redevelop across eastern NM through early Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Rather, low level moisture will slosh around eastern NM through the weekend with multiple rounds of storms expected. Drier conditions will prevail across western NM, with humidity values dropping below 10 percent each afternoon. Today and Friday will see the longest duration (up to 10 hours) and most widespread coverage of single digit RH. Fortunately, winds will be rather light. By Monday, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase as an upper level trough approaches NM. The trough will cross NM Monday night into Tuesday, keeping precipitation in the forecast. Wetting rainfall will be possible for a widespread area. Drier air will filter back into at least western and central NM on Wednesday with single digit RH likely, but a few storms may linger across the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 75 32 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 75 41 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 75 37 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 41 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 39 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 42 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 49 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 72 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 38 81 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 43 85 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 69 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 74 49 75 52 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 74 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 41 73 43 / 10 0 0 5 Red River....................... 61 34 63 36 / 10 0 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 67 29 69 31 / 10 0 10 20 Taos............................ 75 35 77 39 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 71 39 73 42 / 10 0 20 20 Espanola........................ 81 43 82 48 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 49 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 51 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 47 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 50 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 84 47 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 84 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 86 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 78 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 39 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 77 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 51 75 51 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 67 38 65 38 / 50 10 40 50 Raton........................... 72 39 72 40 / 40 5 40 60 Springer........................ 74 39 75 42 / 50 5 30 50 Las Vegas....................... 73 41 75 44 / 10 0 10 20 Clayton......................... 72 47 71 45 / 60 20 10 30 Roy............................. 73 43 74 45 / 40 5 20 50 Conchas......................... 82 47 82 49 / 30 5 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 79 46 81 47 / 20 5 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 83 50 83 50 / 30 5 20 30 Clovis.......................... 80 51 86 52 / 30 10 10 10 Portales........................ 81 51 87 51 / 30 5 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 83 49 86 50 / 20 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 87 54 91 56 / 20 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 52 84 51 / 20 0 5 0 Elk............................. 81 50 83 49 / 5 0 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.