textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Thunderstorms will occur daily through Saturday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, hail, heavy downpours, and a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - Daily scattered storms over western New Mexico will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A neutrally-tilted upper level trough can be seen on water vapor imagery just offshore of southern CA, and another weaker shortwave trough also appears to be over Sonora, lifting northeast toward AZ. Increased high cirrus clouds are spreading ahead of the latter shortwave into AZ and NM with some remnant mid level clouds left over from diurnal cumulus yesterday. In the lower layers of the atmosphere, moisture advection is underway with higher dewpoints advancing farther northwestward into NM. Low 40's dewpoints can already be seen in the lower Rio Grande with 40's to 50's dewpoints also spreading over the eastern half of NM early this morning. However, the northern and western extent of the moisture is not modeled to advance as far by this afternoon, compared to what had previously been modeled, and this could stunt storm chances into the ABQ metro, Grants, and points north and west. Still, the surge in moisture in much of the southeastern half of the CWA along with warm temperatures will lead to ample instability for convective initiation over the central mountain chain of NM this afternoon. A secondary area of drier storms (dewpoints in the mid 30s deg F and PWATs of 0.5 to 0.7 inch) will also initiate early this afternoon, and then cells will propagate off of outflows and mesoscale cold pools, filling into the lower the Rio Grande valley and the lower Continental Divide through late afternoon. Meanwhile storms off of the central mountain chain will advance into the adjacent high plains, and as the evening arrives convection will slowly wane in the western half of the state while staying invigorated over the eastern plains through midnight and beyond. South southwesterlies aloft would be in place (500 to 700 mb mean winds of 10 to 20 kt) prior to convective initiation with disruptions coming from convective clusters and the aforementioned shortwave trough. Pockets of storm relative flow will alter enough to increase directional shear sufficiently for a few strong to severe storms over eastern NM this afternoon and this evening. Latest CAM's keep storms going over the eastern tier of counties through 03/0900UTC with showers lingering through dawn Wednesday.

A weak cyclonic circulation is also modeled to take shape over northern to northeastern NM by Wednesday morning with varying placements dependent on model member. It stands to reason a lot of debris clouds would linger through the morning Wednesday across eastern NM, which may impede those areas from destabilizing as quickly as western and central zones. The low layer moisture would have advanced farther into western NM and the Four Corners region by early Wednesday, setting the stage for more showers and storms farther west, but with lighter steering winds these could have trouble moving off of the Continental Divide and other western high terrain. Also, dewpoints/PWATs would not be high enough to support as much rain in these western zones. Once the central mountain chain and eventually the eastern plains destabilize later Wednesday afternoon, numerous storms should ignite again, albeit likely fewer than today. The remnants of the aforementioned weak circulation may still wander around northeast NM into southeast CO Wednesday afternoon, but the flow aloft is projected to be too low to support severe storms. Overall, 48 hour QPF totals ending Wednesday have incrementally reduced over the past few days with dewpoints and PWATs not quite spiking to previously advertised levels.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

By Thursday, the trough offshore of southern CA will be moving into the Gulf of CA as a weak low. Light flow taking on a bit more of a westerly component will overlay NM, leading to a slight drying in the northwestern half of the forecast area. Storms are modeled to favor this southwest to northeast oriented moisture boundary, but a notable decrease in storm coverage is projected for Thursday. A similar regime is advertised for Friday as the Gulf of CA low moves inland toward the Sonora and Chihuahua border, a much slower pace than previous model runs. Into Saturday, the low would finally exit northeastward into eastern NM, giving convection a boost along and east of the central mountain chain again. Storms would taper off from west to east on Sunday as this low exits, but there are still large uncertainties on how fast this will happen. This would then leave a ridge to build with rising heights over NM into Monday, leading to drier and warmer conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms bringing localized MVFR/IFR conditions to areas along and east of the central mountain chain have already begin this past hour. Some storms will be capable of becoming severe producing severe gusts and large hail. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through southwestern and west-central NM will threaten more dry downburst wind gusts that will stretch into the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley mainly from KSAF southward to KABQ and KONM. Have included a strong east canyon wind at both KSAF and KABQ to account for this that lasts into the evening hours. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity will persist long overnight over much of eastern NM, with MVFR ceilings slow to break as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The return flow is drawing up moisture from the southeast into NM this morning, although it may not be quite as robust as what was modeled a few days ago. Nonetheless, this will lead to a significant increase in wetting storms and humidity, especially over the eastern half of NM today while temperatures reduce a few degrees. While the eastern half of the state gets a fair share of soaking rainfall, most storms west of the central mountain chain will be higher based due to drier moisture profiles, making them less efficient at producing rainfall. This also introduces the likelihood of new fire ignitions from dry lightning, mainly over the lower Rio Grande valley into the southwestern mountains today. Storms will initiate a bit farther to the west Wednesday as the low layer moisture advances toward AZ and the Four Corners, but again the main concern will be dry storms and new lightning ignitions in far western NM Wednesday (especially west of the Continental Divide) while the east tallies up more wetting rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will reduce and not be as numerous into Thursday and Friday with storms struggling to initiate west of the central mountain chain more and more each day as the moisture works back eastward. Storms look to be fully focused along and east of the central mountain chain by Saturday, turning very sparse into the early part of next week. Prevailing winds will stay light to moderate through the next several days with the wind concerns emanating from short-lived thunderstorm outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 58 89 54 / 0 0 10 0 Dulce........................... 87 46 83 41 / 0 5 50 5 Cuba............................ 84 52 77 47 / 5 20 40 20 Gallup.......................... 86 49 84 46 / 0 5 30 5 El Morro........................ 83 50 79 47 / 20 10 50 20 Grants.......................... 86 50 81 47 / 20 30 50 20 Quemado......................... 84 49 81 49 / 40 20 60 20 Magdalena....................... 82 54 77 54 / 70 50 70 30 Datil........................... 80 50 76 50 / 60 30 70 20 Reserve......................... 90 48 86 47 / 30 5 60 20 Glenwood........................ 95 51 91 50 / 10 5 50 20 Chama........................... 79 44 75 40 / 5 5 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 80 57 74 53 / 20 20 70 40 Pecos........................... 80 50 73 46 / 60 40 80 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 50 74 47 / 30 20 70 20 Red River....................... 70 41 65 39 / 50 20 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 73 43 68 39 / 70 30 90 30 Taos............................ 81 50 76 46 / 30 20 70 20 Mora............................ 76 49 69 45 / 70 50 80 50 Espanola........................ 88 56 81 52 / 20 20 60 30 Santa Fe........................ 81 56 74 52 / 40 30 70 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 54 77 50 / 30 30 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 61 82 59 / 30 30 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 58 84 56 / 40 30 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 58 86 56 / 40 30 50 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 59 84 57 / 30 30 40 30 Belen........................... 91 55 86 54 / 60 40 40 40 Bernalillo...................... 90 59 84 57 / 30 30 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 90 55 85 53 / 50 40 40 30 Corrales........................ 91 59 85 57 / 30 30 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 90 56 85 54 / 50 40 40 30 Placitas........................ 86 59 79 57 / 30 30 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 90 59 84 57 / 30 30 50 30 Socorro......................... 92 60 88 59 / 70 50 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 54 76 52 / 40 40 70 40 Tijeras......................... 83 54 77 52 / 40 40 60 40 Edgewood........................ 83 52 77 49 / 50 40 60 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 50 77 47 / 60 40 60 50 Clines Corners.................. 79 50 71 48 / 80 40 70 60 Mountainair..................... 83 50 77 49 / 70 50 60 50 Gran Quivira.................... 81 51 76 50 / 70 60 60 60 Carrizozo....................... 84 58 80 57 / 70 60 50 60 Ruidoso......................... 77 53 72 52 / 90 60 70 60 Capulin......................... 76 48 68 45 / 70 50 50 20 Raton........................... 80 50 73 47 / 70 40 60 20 Springer........................ 81 52 73 48 / 60 50 60 30 Las Vegas....................... 78 51 69 48 / 70 60 70 60 Clayton......................... 85 54 74 52 / 60 70 50 50 Roy............................. 81 52 70 50 / 60 70 60 50 Conchas......................... 88 56 76 54 / 50 70 70 70 Santa Rosa...................... 84 54 73 52 / 50 60 60 70 Tucumcari....................... 92 58 78 55 / 30 70 70 60 Clovis.......................... 91 59 77 56 / 20 70 60 60 Portales........................ 92 59 78 56 / 20 70 60 60 Fort Sumner..................... 89 57 77 55 / 50 70 60 70 Roswell......................... 92 60 80 59 / 40 80 50 60 Picacho......................... 85 55 77 54 / 70 70 60 50 Elk............................. 85 54 77 53 / 80 60 70 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.