textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 - Rivers across northwestern and north central New Mexico will continue to fall below bankfull stages through Thursday.

- Minor winter travel impacts will skirt the Colorado border late tonight into Thursday morning, favoring Raton Pass. - Another round of light rain showers and very high terrain snow will move across central, southern, and southeastern New Mexico Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 104 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

The latest water vapor imagery shows a ~560dm H5 low over east- central UT moving east into western CO this afternoon. Southwest winds have increased over NM ahead of this system and will peak later today as a cold front moves across the region. The H5 low will move east/southeast into southeast CO overnight with higher chances for rain showers and high terrain snow across northern NM. The latest NBM QPF has changed little from previous forecasts but the RRFS has trended a tad drier. Up to 1" of snow is possible for the far northern mts. A backdoor cold front entering northeast NM overnight has trended a little stronger and will bring colder air with blustery northerly wind gusts of 30-40 mph from Clayton to Clovis Thursday morning. Orographics along the Raton Ridge will help to squeeze out 1-2" of snow, especially around Raton Pass. A brief period with minor travel impacts may occur given the wind, snow, and colder temps.

Thursday will feature north winds tapering off over eastern NM while the rest of the area is tranquil and cooler with mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Medium range forecast guidance is struggling with how to handle a broad forward-tilt trough axis entering the Great Basin and Rockies Friday and Saturday. Cluster analysis yesterday was favoring a more progressive and drier trough passage but has now trended toward a weak closed H5 low over far southwest NM, including the GFS and ECMWF AI solutions. Slightly better moisture as well has increased chances for some rain showers over the southwest higher terrain Friday afternoon. This activity may spread northeast toward the ABQ metro area Friday evening before the focus shifts to southeast NM Saturday. NBM 50th percentile QPF amounts are <0.20" near the southern high terrain. The latest RRFS is however more aggressive with a couple QPF streaks >0.40" with bands of showers.

Guidance still shows a weak ridge forming over the southern Rockies Sunday thru Tuesday with light winds, warming temps, and decreasing humidity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts of 15-25KT common, especially near the higher terrain and western NM. A weak storm system will shift east along the NM/CO tonight and spread light rain showers and high terrain snow across the northern mts. A backdoor cold front will then surge south into northeast NM after midnight with an area of low stratus and snow from near Raton to Clayton thru Thursday morning. There is a 20-40% chance of IFR vsbys near the CO border and a 50-70% chance of MVFR cigs over an even larger area of northeast NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

There is no critical fire weather expected thru mid November. There are no significant winds or extended periods of low humidity to note. Soil moisture has improved areawide and fuel conditions are not supportive of rapid fire growth. A weak storm system will slide east along the CO/NM border tonight with light rain showers and high terrain snow, especially near Raton Pass Thursday morning. Forecast models have trended toward higher chances of showers and very high terrain snow Friday and Saturday mainly in central and southern NM. Vent rates will deteriorate to poor/fair thru early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 34 55 38 58 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 58 28 57 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 54 34 55 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 27 57 31 58 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 28 57 32 56 / 0 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 30 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 20 Quemado......................... 29 60 31 59 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 36 57 36 58 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 30 56 33 55 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 29 65 31 62 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 35 68 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 26 52 29 50 / 30 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 32 53 36 52 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 32 56 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 53 32 52 / 20 5 0 0 Red River....................... 20 48 19 49 / 30 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 22 51 17 50 / 20 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 55 26 54 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 54 27 54 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 32 60 32 59 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 55 34 55 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 32 57 33 57 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 36 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 39 61 38 61 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 36 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 36 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 37 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 34 60 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 37 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 41 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 56 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 32 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 58 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 60 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 58 30 59 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 35 57 32 58 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 43 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 57 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 48 29 52 / 50 40 0 0 Raton........................... 31 54 27 55 / 40 20 0 0 Springer........................ 31 55 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 54 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 40 53 34 57 / 20 30 0 0 Roy............................. 36 54 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 43 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 42 58 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 44 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 46 59 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 48 60 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 43 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 40 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.