textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain each afternoon through Friday may produce erratic wind gusts with localized moderate rainfall amounts.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

- Light rain will expand across western and central New Mexico over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A weak east-to-west oriented trough remains over far southern NM today. Modest moisture and weak low to mid level upslope should be enough for isolated storms to develop over the South Central and Southwest Mtns this afternoon. Precipitation amounts continue to look light overall, but can't rule out brief moderate rainfall and gusty winds. Otherwise, a quiet day is in store with high temperatures near to above normal and light winds.

As the upper trough continues to slide southeastward on Friday, southwest flow will return to the NW half of the state. Weak perturbations in the flow may spark isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across western NM. Rainfall amounts will be very light overall (<0.10"). Meanwhile, a deepening lee side trough will allow south to southwest winds across northeast NM to strengthen. Gusts near 35 mph will be common during the afternoon in this area. High temperatures will vary little from today areawide.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

It continues to look like TS Rachel will be sheared apart and the moisture remnants will be absorbed into a Pacific low west of the Baja on Saturday. Then those moisture remnants will shift into SoCal and SW AZ Sunday. While Rachel stays well west of NM, PWATs will increase over NM this weekend as southwest flow aloft increases. PWATs around 0.50" on Friday afternoon should rise toward 0.75-0.80" along and west of the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday, and between 0.75-1.00" areawide on Sunday. Precipitation will favor the western third of NM each day, but a few showers and storms could reach as far east as the Central Mtn Chain. Through the weekend, most areas should pick up less than 0.25" though more persistent showers or isolated thunderstorms could bring a few areas up to 1 inch of rainfall. Given the stronger southwest flow aloft, orographic lift will be a big player dictating what areas will be favored for higher precipitation amounts. At this time, it appears the Southwest Mountains and Tusas Mountains will be favored.

A deeper lee side trough should develop Saturday, which will bring wind gusts around 35 mph to northeast NM once again, though a few breezes will be felt elsewhere. Winds aloft increase from around 15-20kt on Saturday to 20-35kt on Sunday at H7. Modest mixing combined with another lee side surface trough will allow gusts between 25-35 mph areawide Sunday aftn.

TS Simon will continue to strengthen south of Mexico before shifting northward and making landfall in MX late Sunday. Where the remnants of Simon will go thereafter will depend on the progression of the deep upper low diving southward along the west coast on Sunday. The latest operational GFS and EC show the low ejecting eastward faster than previous model runs, which helps direct the moisture from Simon away from NM and perhaps only clipping SE or eastern areas of the state. Now models are indicating that a dry slot will punch into NM and winds will remain breezy. Therefore, both the operational GFS and EC are considerably drier for NM for Monday night through Wednesday. This also means they have trended toward the AI and Ensemble forecasts. Given the AI models have been consistently drier and ensembles have consistently shown PWATs staying at or below 0.75" for all but eastern NM, it seems unlikely that operational models will flip-flop back to a wetter solution. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain forecast for the period in case, but if this trend continues, PoPs may be reduced in the future.

The upper low still looks to track eastward over or near the Four Corners on Sunday, though perhaps a weaker low than what was thought previously. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may still impact northwest portions of the state on Wednesday, but the dry slot looks to be firmly in place elsewhere.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with mostly light winds. Isolated showers or storms are not expected to impact TAF sites this evening or again Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week, though winds will pick up starting Friday and at least breezy conditions may persist through mid week. Winds increase across NE NM on Friday afternoon as a result of a deepening lee side surface trough. A lee side trough will keep breezy to locally windy conditions across NE NM Saturday, then as flow increases aloft, mixing will allow breezy to locally windy conditions to develop nearly areawide Sunday through the middle of the week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible on Friday across western NM, then better chances for light precipitation return over the weekend for western and portions of central NM. Latest model trends indicate the Monday night through Wednesday timeframe will not be as wet, and rather, a dry slot will punch through the state. Stay tuned for further changes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 49 80 52 75 / 5 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 39 75 41 70 / 5 10 10 30 Cuba............................ 44 72 46 69 / 5 5 10 20 Gallup.......................... 39 77 46 73 / 5 10 10 20 El Morro........................ 41 73 44 69 / 5 10 5 40 Grants.......................... 40 76 45 71 / 5 5 10 30 Quemado......................... 42 74 46 70 / 5 10 10 30 Magdalena....................... 48 72 50 70 / 5 0 5 20 Datil........................... 43 70 45 67 / 5 5 10 30 Reserve......................... 43 77 45 74 / 5 5 10 20 Glenwood........................ 51 83 53 81 / 5 10 10 20 Chama........................... 41 68 41 62 / 10 10 10 40 Los Alamos...................... 50 71 50 69 / 5 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 44 72 45 71 / 5 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 70 44 67 / 5 0 0 10 Red River....................... 33 62 36 58 / 10 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 25 67 30 65 / 5 5 5 5 Taos............................ 39 73 42 69 / 5 0 0 5 Mora............................ 41 71 41 70 / 5 5 0 5 Espanola........................ 46 77 48 76 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 48 73 49 71 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 76 48 73 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 77 54 76 / 5 0 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 78 55 77 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 79 54 78 / 0 0 5 10 Belen........................... 47 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 52 80 53 79 / 0 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 47 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 51 80 53 79 / 0 0 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 46 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 52 76 53 75 / 5 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 53 79 54 78 / 5 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 54 82 55 79 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 71 50 71 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 51 72 52 73 / 5 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 48 74 48 74 / 5 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 47 72 47 72 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 72 48 72 / 5 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 47 71 48 72 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 75 54 76 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 69 49 71 / 10 5 0 5 Capulin......................... 45 72 47 72 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 41 78 44 78 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 39 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 73 45 73 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 52 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 51 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 50 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 53 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 76 50 78 / 5 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.