textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Breezy to windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth Thursday.

- A few strong to severe storms will focus over the eastern plains this afternoon, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts again Thursday across southeast NM.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have erupted along the east slopes of the South Central Mountains today and these storms will continue to expand in coverage and increase in intensity as they shift northeastward across eastern NM. A few strong to severe storms are expected. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, but large hail cannot be ruled out with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE available and effective bulk shear around 25-30kts. Most of the storms will shift into west Texas by 03Z, then a mostly quiet night will follow. Smoke from the Sacaton fire in the Gila will spread northeastward toward the ABQ metro this evening. Smoke/haze may be noted this evening and Thursday morning across the ABQ metro.

On Thursday, drier air aloft will push farther into NM, limiting the shower and thunderstorm concerns to areas from the east slopes of the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains eastward to the Texas border. Storm coverage is expected to be less than today, however, DCAPE values soaring over 2500 J/kg Thursday afternoon suggests that very strong to damaging wind gusts may occur with any shower or thunderstorm. Storms should again diminish by 03Z. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions will prevail. High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper level high is expected to build over NM Friday through early next week and moisture will slowly increase as it seeps underneath the high. On Friday and Saturday, storms will remain focused over and adjacent to the South Central Mountains, which increases the risk for burn scar flash flooding.

On Sunday, a weak backdoor cold front or outflow boundary will nudge into northeast NM with moist, low level upslope flow onto the Sangre de Cristo Mountains behind it. Expect showers and storms to develop Sunday afternoon both along the mountains and along the boundary where it stalls - likely near the I-40 corridor. Storms will then expand and track southeastward through the evening. Most models are projecting a disturbance to track northward across the Baja on Saturday and northeastward around the upper high on Sunday, shifting across the Four Corners region Sunday afternoon and evening. This disturbance will bring sub- tropical moisture northeastward across AZ and into NM. While the disturbance and moisture may arrive too late for storms across western NM on Sunday, humidity values will begin to trend upward and it will also set the stage for more storms across western NM on Monday. Any outflows that push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain from the storms across eastern NM will also help raise moisture from the Rio Grande Valley westward.

Monday and Tuesday will feature daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the high terrain initially then moving over lower elevations later in the afternoon and evening. Certainly looking more like the Monsoon!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. However, isolated thunderstorms have already formed late this morning along the east slopes of the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage across eastern NM and increase in intensity through the afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are expected with damaging wind gusts in excess of 50kt the main concern and large hail as a secondary concern. Brief excursions into MVFR vsby is possible in heavy rain or blowing dust. Storms will shift northeastward through the evening. Storms should move into west Texas by 03Z Thu. Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions will be the rule with southwest wind gusts around 25 or 30kt. Winds will decouple overnight, except across far eastern NM where south to southwest breezes will persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will persist through this evening across western NM where very dry and breezy conditions will persist. Up to 12 hours of single digit humidity is expected today. On Thursday, the drier air that is pushing into western NM today will push a bit farther eastward. Between 12 and 18 hours of single digit RH is expected across western NM on Thursday, while up to 8 hours is expected across north central NM and the Northeast Highlands. Additionally, winds will strengthen just enough across northeast NM, owing mainly to a better placement of the surface low, to allow for critical fire weather conditions to develop. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the Northeast Highlands and Northeast Plains. Across western and central NM, the abysmally dry conditions combined with a few breezes will result in elevated to near-critical conditions once again. The upper high will begin to build over NM Friday and Saturday, but storm coverage will not really increase until Sunday through Tuesday. Expect daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 91 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 87 43 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 51 87 51 88 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 44 87 44 88 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 47 90 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 87 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 58 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 46 90 47 93 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 51 94 53 97 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 86 60 88 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 87 53 89 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 44 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 79 33 81 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 49 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 57 92 57 95 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 90 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 94 62 95 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 94 64 95 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 96 60 97 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 97 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 95 58 96 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 95 58 96 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 61 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 94 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 87 58 89 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 58 89 58 90 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 55 89 56 90 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 91 50 92 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 86 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 56 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 91 63 92 / 0 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 84 59 85 / 0 20 0 30 Capulin......................... 54 87 54 89 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 52 92 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 53 93 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 88 54 90 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 62 95 63 97 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 58 90 58 92 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 64 97 64 99 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 93 62 95 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 97 67 99 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 64 92 65 94 / 30 20 20 5 Portales........................ 65 94 66 96 / 40 20 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 65 95 66 97 / 5 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 67 96 68 98 / 10 20 10 0 Picacho......................... 61 92 62 93 / 5 40 5 10 Elk............................. 59 88 59 89 / 5 40 10 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123.