textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- A few high-based and gusty showers and thunderstorms today over central and eastern NM may produce strong and erratic downburst winds with localized blowing dust.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return Friday through Saturday. High chances exist for widespread beneficial rainfall across eastern New Mexico. Some storms may become strong to severe across eastern NM, mainly near the TX border.

- Strong west to southwest winds will return Sunday and peak on Monday and Tuesday. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Backing flow aloft and moisture advection will be the story through Friday as an upper low offshore of northern CA opens up and moves inland while a more significant trough takes shape offshore of the west coast. Warmer temperatures are forecast today under the influence of weak ridging aloft, with highs reaching 5-15 degrees above average. A round of isolated to scattered daytime heating triggered convection is forecast, but moisture will be limited and inverted-V type soundings will favor strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting (>0.10") rainfall. Lightning activity will be limited as well, favoring the eastern plains where instability will be greater. A more robust round of convection is forecast for Friday afternoon, especially across eastern NM where Gulf moisture will be on the uptrend. Strong to potentially sever storms are possible across far eastern NM near the TX border Friday afternoon, especially near Clayton where a backdoor front is forecast to pull up stationary and 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to reach up to between 40-50kts. The SPC day 2 convective outlook is showing a marginal risk for severe storms Friday across eastern Quay and Union Counties.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Convection is forecast to persist through Friday night with the threat for strong to severe storms on the wane during the evening hours given the loss of daytime heating and decreasing instability. That said, much needed rainfall is on the way Friday night into Saturday, favoring areas along/east of the central mountain chain where PWATs will rise well above normal for early/mid April. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50" will be common along/east of the central mountain chain, with high-end amounts around 1.00". Probabilities for flash flooding are low during the Friday night through Saturday period but are non-zero, especially in the Ruidoso area given burn scar considerations. Another, more potent upper low will move east into northern CA during the Friday night through Saturday period, bringing strong southwest flow aloft over the region. This setup will favor another round of convection on Saturday, although eastern NM may be too worked-over from overnight rainfall to generate significant instability to pair with increasing shear over the area for any severe storm threat. A round of showers and storms is forecast across western NM Saturday afternoon, but instability and moisture will be more limited and shear will be lower than eastern NM. That said, the best combination of shear and instability on Saturday will reside across the east central and southeast plains, where severe storms can not be ruled out. Drying is forecast on Sunday as the broad circulation around the upper low over northern CA steers stronger southwest winds and a dry slot over the area, bringing windy conditions. The upper low is forecast to move southeast over the Desert SW on Monday, steering even stronger southwest winds over the area and bringing a deeper lee side trough. The result will be windy to very windy conditions and a moderate/high chance that we'll need wind highlights. Chances for precipitation will trend back up late Monday through Tuesday as the upper low opens up and swings east over the state, this time favoring western and north central central NM. Tuesday will likely be the windiest day for eastern NM, with winds modeled to reach 130kts at 300mb ahead of the upper level trough. The trough will bring a Pacific cold front and notably cooler conditions for Tue/Wed. The trough will be sufficiently cold for a round of much needed snow across the northern and western mountains, possibly reaching down to near 7Kft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Cumulus developing around the high terrain will build into high- based showers and isolated TSRA after 2pm. This activity will move east-northeast around 15KT into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset (favoring the Rio Grande Valley and high plains of eastern NM). Erratic downburst wind gusts up to 40KT are possible from the stronger activity. Mid and high clouds will continue tonight while low clouds build into southeast NM. There is a 20-40% chance of MVFR and 10-20% chance of IFR cloud decks at KROW between 4am and 8am.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A round of mostly dry showers and storms is forecast this afternoon/evening, with gusty/erratic winds and little-to-no chance for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning activity is possible west of the central mountain chain today, but more likely across eastern NM. Moisture advection will be the story tonight through Friday night as a west coast troughing pattern develops, bringing rounds of wetting showers and storms through Saturday. Eastern NM will benefit from soaking rains during the Fri/Sat period, with lower chances for wetting rainfall across western NM. A dry slot and stronger southwest winds aloft will move over the region Sunday, bringing critical fire weather conditions to much of the area. However, soaking rains from Fri/Sat will likely prohibit large fire growth across eastern NM, but western areas could be more susceptible. Strong southwest flow aloft will persist Monday ahead of an approaching Pacific trough and critical fire weather conditions are likely once again, this time across central and eastern areas. The trough will bring a Pacific cold front on Tuesday, limiting critical fire weather conditions to the eastern plains and highlands. The trough will also bring chances for wetting precipitation late Mon/Tue, mainly to the western and northern mountains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 78 44 77 48 / 0 0 10 30 Dulce........................... 74 30 72 38 / 0 0 20 60 Cuba............................ 73 40 71 42 / 10 5 40 70 Gallup.......................... 73 34 74 38 / 0 0 20 20 El Morro........................ 70 41 71 40 / 0 5 30 40 Grants.......................... 75 37 74 40 / 0 5 30 40 Quemado......................... 72 40 72 41 / 10 5 20 20 Magdalena....................... 74 47 73 46 / 20 20 50 60 Datil........................... 71 43 70 41 / 20 10 40 40 Reserve......................... 78 38 76 40 / 10 0 10 20 Glenwood........................ 83 43 81 44 / 0 0 10 20 Chama........................... 67 34 66 37 / 5 0 30 70 Los Alamos...................... 71 49 71 45 / 10 5 40 80 Pecos........................... 73 41 71 42 / 0 0 50 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 40 68 41 / 10 10 40 80 Red River....................... 65 26 60 33 / 20 10 50 80 Angel Fire...................... 65 22 64 34 / 0 0 60 90 Taos............................ 73 32 72 40 / 10 5 40 80 Mora............................ 72 37 68 40 / 10 0 60 90 Espanola........................ 78 40 78 46 / 10 5 40 70 Santa Fe........................ 73 47 72 46 / 5 0 50 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 44 75 46 / 5 5 40 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 54 77 50 / 5 10 40 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 51 79 50 / 5 10 40 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 48 80 49 / 10 10 30 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 51 80 51 / 10 10 40 70 Belen........................... 83 44 81 48 / 10 10 30 70 Bernalillo...................... 82 50 80 50 / 10 10 30 70 Bosque Farms.................... 83 44 81 47 / 10 10 40 70 Corrales........................ 83 50 81 50 / 10 10 30 70 Los Lunas....................... 83 46 81 49 / 10 10 40 70 Placitas........................ 78 52 77 49 / 5 10 40 70 Rio Rancho...................... 81 51 79 50 / 10 10 40 70 Socorro......................... 84 51 82 50 / 20 10 40 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 48 72 46 / 5 10 50 80 Tijeras......................... 77 46 75 47 / 0 10 50 80 Edgewood........................ 78 42 75 44 / 0 10 60 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 36 76 42 / 0 10 50 80 Clines Corners.................. 73 43 72 44 / 0 5 60 90 Mountainair..................... 77 43 75 44 / 0 10 50 70 Gran Quivira.................... 76 44 75 46 / 0 10 40 80 Carrizozo....................... 78 49 76 49 / 10 10 50 70 Ruidoso......................... 72 48 68 46 / 20 5 60 80 Capulin......................... 73 36 66 42 / 20 20 70 80 Raton........................... 75 35 72 43 / 20 20 60 70 Springer........................ 78 35 74 45 / 20 10 60 70 Las Vegas....................... 74 38 72 43 / 5 0 50 80 Clayton......................... 81 44 69 47 / 30 30 60 80 Roy............................. 78 40 73 46 / 20 20 60 80 Conchas......................... 85 44 81 50 / 20 10 60 90 Santa Rosa...................... 81 42 78 50 / 30 10 50 90 Tucumcari....................... 85 51 82 51 / 30 20 60 80 Clovis.......................... 83 51 81 53 / 20 10 50 70 Portales........................ 85 51 82 53 / 20 10 50 70 Fort Sumner..................... 84 47 82 51 / 20 10 50 80 Roswell......................... 84 52 85 56 / 20 5 40 70 Picacho......................... 80 46 79 50 / 30 5 50 70 Elk............................. 79 44 76 47 / 30 5 40 70

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.