textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026 - Pleasant Fall weather remains today thru Tuesday with some showers over western and central New Mexico. - Showers and thunderstorms return to the western half of NM Wednesday thru Friday, peaking in intensity Thursday. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall mainly for western NM.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A weak upper low, centered near Yuma, AZ, is bringing increased cloud cover and a few spotty light showers over parts of the state today. One particular mesoscale feature continues to bring light showers progressing northward into the Sangre de Cristo Mts this hour. Otherwise, most areas are seeing mostly sunny and dry conditions with pleasant temperatures and light winds. Aside from the cluster of light showers moving into the southern Sangre de Cristo Mts and a few stray and wayward showers trying to enter western NM this afternoon, overall pleasant conditions will persist through tonight. Overnight low temperatures will again trend a step warmer compared to this past mornings, with weaker but still present valley temperature inversions favored to set up again.

Monday starts the work week with the upper low over the northern Gulf of California weakening and opening to a shortwave trough. This feature looks to continue tapping into modest subtropical moisture, generating scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms favoring the southwestern third to half of NM Monday afternoon. Convective activity associated with this weakening shortwave continues into Monday night as it progresses northward to the Four Corners region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Tuesday continues an upward trek in PW's to ~0.75", but overall precipitation chances trend lower thanks to an axis of high pressure ridging building in from the east. While isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will favor the western high terrain, most areas look to see another pleasant day with high temperatures warming into the 60s to 70s, with near 80F across the eastern plains.

The overall synoptic scale weather pattern over the southwest CONUS becomes sharply amplified by Wednesday with a 557-560dm H5 closed low digging down the CA coastline and the aforementioned ridge of high pressure standing up further over eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Consensus timing for this upcoming wet period is Wednesday through Friday with a peak intensity period occurring Thursday focused through the northwestern half of NM. There is good consensus among models and their associated ensembles that the H5 low will open and come ashore SoCal Thursday with a vortmax rotating northeastward around the low's southeasterly flank over the Desert Southwest bringing fast moving thunderstorms flowing SW-NE through AZ and western NM thru the day. Individual storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, and locally short duration periods of heavy rainfall. The main vortmax and area of large scale forcing and ascent ejects quickly along the UT/CO border Thursday night into Friday morning with remnant showers continuing over central and eastern NM. Main uncertainties regarding this event still lay with just how much atmospheric instability there will be to increase rainfall production. There is fair agreement that PW's climb to the 0.90" to 1.10" range at ABQ by Thursday, which would likely set daily records for mid-to- late October. However, the latest run of the NBM shows a 0.50" to 2.00" range in 24-hr rainfall amounts between Thursday and Friday mornings over western and central NM. Much of this disparity in rainfall amounts will in the end depend on how much instability there will be, in turn likely dependent on mid- to-upper level cloud cover. Numerical model guidance continues to advertise a well defined tap of mid-to-upper level moisture streaming northeastward from the EPAC and over AZ/NM. This feature would likely produce abundant cloud cover, limiting daytime heating and lowering instability parameters. Thus, the mid range solutions for 0.25" to 0.75" of event total rainfall Wednesday night through Friday morning for most lower and middle elevation areas of western, central, and northern NM with higher amounts of 0.50" to 2.00" in the mountains where orographic forcing will also be a factor looks to be the most likely scenario. Locally higher amounts will favor where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same locations Thursday favoring the northwestern quadrant of NM and perhaps further into the middle Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe. Thus, the WPC has maintained a marginal excessive rainfall risk for these areas Thursday.

Thereafter, forecast certainty tanks further with diverging solutions ranging from a lagging upper low closing off over NM and AZ which would continue the wet pattern, and a more progressive solution bringing drier conditions back from the west.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR prevails with increasing mid to high level clouds. A batch of showers is continuing to progress northward thru central NM over K0E0 this hour, and have included a TEMPO at KSAF for this feature as it skirts just to that terminal's east thru 20Z or so. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions with perhaps a few stray showers entering western NM later this afternoon. Winds remain light most areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Poor ventilation remains the rule with light winds and weak mixing. A few light showers will reach parts of western and central NM each afternoon through Tuesday. Precipitation coverage picks up Wednesday thru western NM, peaking in coverage and intensity Thursday with numerous to widespread wetting thunderstorms, before tapering off through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 46 69 48 70 / 10 10 20 10 Dulce........................... 37 67 40 66 / 5 10 50 50 Cuba............................ 43 66 45 67 / 5 20 30 20 Gallup.......................... 43 67 44 69 / 20 20 20 5 El Morro........................ 41 65 43 68 / 30 50 40 20 Grants.......................... 43 68 45 70 / 30 50 40 10 Quemado......................... 43 68 44 70 / 20 40 30 30 Magdalena....................... 46 66 48 69 / 10 40 40 30 Datil........................... 42 64 45 67 / 20 60 40 20 Reserve......................... 43 71 46 72 / 10 50 50 40 Glenwood........................ 45 75 49 77 / 10 60 70 40 Chama........................... 39 60 40 59 / 0 10 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 44 66 46 66 / 0 20 30 30 Pecos........................... 41 69 43 68 / 0 10 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 64 43 63 / 0 10 10 20 Red River....................... 34 56 36 56 / 0 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 21 61 27 61 / 0 20 20 10 Taos............................ 38 67 41 66 / 0 10 10 20 Mora............................ 39 67 40 68 / 0 10 20 10 Espanola........................ 42 73 46 73 / 0 10 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 44 68 47 68 / 0 10 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 69 47 70 / 0 10 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 73 54 75 / 5 20 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 73 52 75 / 5 20 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 75 50 77 / 5 20 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 73 53 75 / 5 20 40 20 Belen........................... 43 73 49 77 / 10 20 50 10 Bernalillo...................... 48 75 51 76 / 5 20 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 42 74 48 77 / 5 20 50 10 Corrales........................ 48 75 51 77 / 5 20 40 30 Los Lunas....................... 42 74 49 77 / 5 20 50 10 Placitas........................ 49 72 52 73 / 0 20 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 49 73 52 75 / 5 20 40 30 Socorro......................... 51 75 54 79 / 10 30 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 67 47 68 / 0 20 40 30 Tijeras......................... 46 69 49 70 / 0 20 40 30 Edgewood........................ 41 71 45 72 / 0 20 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 72 43 74 / 0 20 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 44 68 47 69 / 0 20 40 30 Mountainair..................... 43 69 46 71 / 0 20 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 44 68 47 70 / 0 20 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 50 72 52 75 / 0 40 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 46 68 47 70 / 0 50 30 20 Capulin......................... 42 67 44 68 / 0 0 5 10 Raton........................... 38 71 41 72 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 37 72 42 74 / 0 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 40 69 44 69 / 0 5 20 10 Clayton......................... 48 71 50 74 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 41 71 46 72 / 0 0 5 10 Conchas......................... 47 78 51 79 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 47 77 49 75 / 0 10 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 50 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 48 78 50 78 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 47 78 50 78 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 76 49 77 / 0 5 10 5 Roswell......................... 48 77 51 80 / 0 0 10 0 Picacho......................... 48 75 49 77 / 0 30 20 10 Elk............................. 48 76 49 78 / 0 30 20 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.