textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 454 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mostly across the high terrain and nearby lower elevations. The overall storm coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday, before lowering Thursday and Friday. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and central New Mexico where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The upper high currently over the southern CONUS will shift slightly eastward this afternoon. Atmospheric moisture will remain sufficient enough to support scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon, with PWATs ranging between 0.80-1.20 inches. Coverage will be greatest across areas of higher terrain, with additional storms possible across the northeastern plains along a weak backdoor front. Slower storm motions will allow for more efficient rainfall production and heavier downpours, with the greatest concern near and around the Ruidoso burn scars.

The ridge will progress back west, centering over the southwest, by Wednesday. The associated warming aloft will support slightly higher temperatures across the region, while increasing dry air aloft spreads into northwestern NM and suppresses precipitation coverage there. Shower and storm chances will continue, however, across the southwestern and west-central mountains and the central mountain chain, with outflow boundaries from higher terrain storms potentially initiating additional cells across nearby lower elevations through the evening. Another area to watch will be portions of the northeastern plains, where another, more potent, backdoor front looks to advance across the region, providing a focus for additional afternoon/evening storm development. Though the area is not currently outlooked by SPC, the enhanced convergence and upslope flow could allow for an isolated strong to severe storm or two, with the primary threats being hail and gusty, erratic winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The ridge will become much more established over AZ on Thursday and Friday, allowing the drier air to spread south-southeastward across much of the northern and western portions of NM. This will produce a stark moisture gradient across the state. With the combination of increasing stability, weakening low-level convergence, and drier mid- levels will cause quite the decrease in precipitation coverage. Any showers and storms that do manage to develop will likely favor the Gila and Sacramento Mountains. Temperatures will also respond to the settling of the ridge, trending upwards (c'mon now it's September--we should be trending downwards!), with portions of the CWA potentially reaching 5-15 degrees above normal by late in the week.

Things become a bit more favorable for the return of moisture and precipitation over the weekend as the ridge shifts back east and a trough digs south across the Rockies. This setup will allow for a more west-southwesterly flow across the state, bringing in moisture from the Gulf of California. This moisture return should be sufficient enough to support renewed precipitation chances, mainly across the west and areas of higher terrain. By early next week, the trough shifts farther east while the minimal moisture plume remains in place. This should allow at least scattered rain chances to persist, with temperatures progged to gradually ease closer to seasonal averages, particularly across western NM.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 454 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated to scattered storms will favor the southwest mountains and central mountain chain this evening, with coverage decreasing through the evening. Outflow boundaries will create gusty winds up to 30 knots through around 03Z, including along the Rio Grande Valley.

Storms on Wednesday will generally favor the same areas as today, with the greatest coverage in the southwest mountains. Storm motions will be slow towards the south, with erratic motions at times. A few storms across the northeast may produce strong outflow wind gusts and hail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

No critical fire weather concerns are expected over the next week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor the higher terrain of western, central and southwestern NM the rest of today, with increasing coverage across the central mountain chain and northeastern plains later this evening. Storms will be slower moving and capable of locally heavy rainfall or flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scar areas. Similar areas will see precipitation activity on Wednesday. One area to watch will be northeastern NM as a backdoor front propagates south and eastward into the region, which could allow for an isolated strong to severe storm or two, with the primary threats being hail and gusty, erratic winds. Wind concerns also exist with any localized thunderstorm outflows.

Drier air will move into the region late this week, resulting in lower storm coverage, warmer temperatures, and lower humidity. Minimum relative humidity values may drop as low as 10-20% during the afternoons, particularly across much of northwestern NM. A weak plume of monsoonal moisture may return late this weekend and into early next week, bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage, though confidence in the details remains low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 94 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 91 44 90 / 5 5 5 0 Cuba............................ 57 89 54 88 / 5 5 5 0 Gallup.......................... 54 90 49 90 / 10 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 55 84 52 86 / 40 40 10 5 Grants.......................... 53 88 47 89 / 20 20 10 10 Quemado......................... 57 85 56 85 / 30 60 50 10 Magdalena....................... 61 86 60 85 / 50 50 40 20 Datil........................... 57 81 56 82 / 50 60 50 20 Reserve......................... 57 90 57 89 / 40 60 60 30 Glenwood........................ 61 95 61 95 / 40 50 60 40 Chama........................... 52 85 49 84 / 10 5 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 62 85 60 86 / 20 20 10 5 Pecos........................... 57 87 55 87 / 20 30 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 85 52 84 / 30 20 10 10 Red River....................... 48 75 46 74 / 50 50 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 40 80 / 40 60 20 10 Taos............................ 52 88 50 88 / 20 20 10 5 Mora............................ 55 84 52 82 / 40 40 20 20 Espanola........................ 63 93 59 93 / 20 10 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 57 89 57 87 / 20 10 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 91 57 90 / 10 10 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 94 65 94 / 30 10 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 95 65 94 / 20 10 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 97 65 96 / 20 10 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 95 66 95 / 20 10 10 0 Belen........................... 66 96 63 95 / 10 10 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 96 65 96 / 20 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 64 96 63 96 / 10 10 20 5 Corrales........................ 65 97 65 97 / 20 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 96 62 95 / 10 10 20 5 Placitas........................ 63 93 64 92 / 20 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 96 66 96 / 20 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 66 96 63 96 / 10 20 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 88 59 88 / 40 20 20 5 Tijeras......................... 64 89 61 89 / 40 20 20 5 Edgewood........................ 61 89 57 89 / 40 20 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 91 55 90 / 40 20 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 59 86 55 86 / 40 30 30 10 Mountainair..................... 61 88 57 87 / 40 40 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 61 87 58 86 / 40 50 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 66 90 64 89 / 30 30 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 58 83 57 83 / 20 50 30 60 Capulin......................... 57 81 54 81 / 60 60 50 30 Raton........................... 55 86 53 86 / 30 50 40 20 Springer........................ 56 90 55 87 / 50 50 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 54 85 52 83 / 40 40 30 20 Clayton......................... 65 89 61 86 / 40 40 40 20 Roy............................. 62 89 58 86 / 60 50 50 10 Conchas......................... 68 97 65 94 / 30 30 50 10 Santa Rosa...................... 67 93 64 92 / 20 30 30 5 Tucumcari....................... 70 97 66 94 / 10 20 40 5 Clovis.......................... 67 97 65 92 / 0 10 20 20 Portales........................ 69 97 67 93 / 0 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 97 66 95 / 5 20 30 5 Roswell......................... 71 99 67 96 / 0 5 10 10 Picacho......................... 64 93 64 91 / 0 20 40 20 Elk............................. 60 89 60 87 / 10 20 30 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.