textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mainly from southwestern to northeastern New Mexico today. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and central New Mexico where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs by Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The ridge over the southeastern CONUS will continue to shift west today toward the Desert Southwest before it splits, with a separate center continuing to remain over the Southeast. This will maintain generally weak flow across the state as drier air begin to filter into northwestern NM. While we start to see the intrusion of this drier airmass, sufficient moisture and instability will still be in place across portions of the southern higher terrain and in northeastern NM. This will support another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms today. Compared to yesterday's model runs, the passage of a backdoor front later today looks to stay confined to far northeastern NM/along the CO border, with any southern push of convection likely driven more by outflows than by the front. A few stronger storms remain possible across this area, with gusty winds and heavy rain the main concerns. Due to the overall weak atmospheric flow in place, any cells that do develop could be slow moving and produce isolated pockets of excessive rainfall/flash flooding.

Thursday will be a lot drier and less favorable for storm development, especially across northern and western NM as the ridge becomes more established over the region and drier air from the northwest continues to filter in. Model PWATs generally range between 0.25-0.60 inches across those areas. However, faint moisture will persist across southern and eastern NM (PWATs ~0.75-1.25 inches). This area could become a focus for afternoon thunderstorm development, as southeasterly flow at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft would provide sufficient shear if storms became established. This could support a few organized strong to severe storms across northeastern NM, with hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Additional isolated to scattered storms are expected across the southwestern and south-central mountains.

Temperatures remain hot the next couple of days, with highs generally 5-15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The drier airmass will continue to spread south and eastward Friday, leading to a substantial decrease in storm coverage across most of the state. The best remaining moisture will be confined to the western border (PWATs ~0.70-0.80 inches), where isolated storms may develop. Hot and dry conditions are expected across eastern NM, with temperatures potentially approaching or exceeding records in some locations. Moisture will begin returning eastward on Saturday as the ridge responds to the propagation of a trough across the Pacific NW, bringing isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms back into the forecast for the western and central mountains.

By Sunday and into early next week, a gradual increase in moisture across the state is expected as southwesterly flow aloft becomes more prevalent due to the positioning of the aforementioned trough and the strengthening high over the Southeast. This should support an increase in precipitation coverage as we head into next week. Temperatures look to trend down in response, closer to seasonal normals, during this period. Although, given we are 5-7 days out, uncertainty remains, particularly with regards to how effectively this moisture return plays out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Showers and storms will develop once again this afternoon, primarily favoring the southwestern mountains as well as northeastern NM. A storm or two near the far northeast corner of the state could turn strong to severe, but most of today's precipitation activity will tend to be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic winds, and frequent lightning, with small hail possible in the strongest of storms. Heavy downpours could briefly reduce CIGs and VSBYs. Storms will drift into east central NM through the late afternoon and early evening before overall coverage dissipates just after midnight and skies begin to clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms will favor southwestern and northeastern NM the rest of today, with increasing coverage across the east central plains late this afternoon and early in the evening. Storms will be slower moving and capable of locally heavy rainfall or flash flooding. Wind concerns also exist with any localized thunderstorm outflows.

Thursday will be quite a bit drier and less favorable for storm development, especially across northern and western NM, and even more-so on Friday as the ridge settles into the region and drier air from the northwest filters in. In addition to lower storm coverage, this pattern will result in warmer temperatures, and lower humidity. Minimum relative humidity values may drop as low as 10-20% during the afternoons across much of northwestern NM, with values between 20-30% across the remainder of the state.

A weak plume of monsoonal moisture may return this weekend and into early next week, bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage, beginning over the high terrain this weekend and expanding over more of northern and central New Mexico through early next week. Also, prevailing gusts of 20 to 25 mph are looking a bit more likely late this weekend, primarily out of the west-southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 52 92 50 92 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 50 89 46 90 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 55 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 48 91 47 90 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 51 85 51 84 / 20 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 49 89 44 88 / 10 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 55 85 54 84 / 60 5 0 20 Magdalena....................... 60 84 59 86 / 40 20 5 20 Datil........................... 56 82 55 83 / 50 20 5 20 Reserve......................... 56 89 56 89 / 60 20 0 30 Glenwood........................ 62 95 61 96 / 40 30 10 20 Chama........................... 51 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 83 61 85 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 55 88 53 90 / 20 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 81 47 84 / 20 10 5 0 Red River....................... 47 72 45 75 / 30 20 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 76 32 80 / 30 20 20 0 Taos............................ 52 84 43 88 / 20 5 0 0 Mora............................ 53 81 50 85 / 30 30 20 0 Espanola........................ 61 91 60 93 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 88 51 88 / 20 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 90 51 90 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 91 59 93 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 92 62 94 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 94 61 96 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 94 60 96 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 64 95 63 97 / 20 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 65 94 61 95 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 94 61 95 / 20 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 65 95 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 94 62 96 / 20 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 63 90 58 92 / 20 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 93 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 94 63 97 / 40 5 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 87 59 89 / 30 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 62 88 60 89 / 40 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 60 88 58 89 / 30 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 90 52 91 / 30 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 85 54 87 / 40 10 5 0 Mountainair..................... 59 88 59 90 / 40 5 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 59 86 59 88 / 30 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 89 65 92 / 40 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 57 83 57 86 / 50 50 5 5 Capulin......................... 54 79 54 86 / 50 60 40 0 Raton........................... 53 83 49 91 / 30 40 20 0 Springer........................ 55 87 49 93 / 20 20 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 52 84 50 88 / 30 20 20 0 Clayton......................... 62 85 61 93 / 40 30 30 0 Roy............................. 60 86 58 91 / 30 20 20 0 Conchas......................... 65 93 65 99 / 50 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 92 65 96 / 50 10 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 94 64 101 / 40 20 30 0 Clovis.......................... 65 91 63 97 / 20 30 30 0 Portales........................ 68 94 65 100 / 10 40 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 95 68 99 / 30 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 69 98 67 103 / 10 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 64 91 63 96 / 20 30 5 10 Elk............................. 60 86 59 90 / 30 50 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.