textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists this afternoon and early evening across far eastern NM.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms can not be ruled out on Tuesday across eastern NM.

- There is a low to moderate (30-40%) risk for burn scar flash flooding in and near Ruidoso Monday afternoon through Monday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

An upper high is building across the region and will peak Sunday near 586dam at 500mb directly over central NM, bringing warmer condtions with high temperatures a few degrees above average. In the meantime, a backdoor front transported low level moisture west to near the Continental Divide early this morning and with daytime heating is already producing a round of garden-variety convection between Springer, Santa Fe, Los Alamos and Grants. Convection west of the central mountain chain will be higher based and favor strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting (>0.10") rainfall. However, convection across eastern NM may become strong to severe later this afternoon after continued destabilization of the atmosphere. The ingredients for severe thunderstorms will be more plentiful closer to the TX/OK borders late this afternoon, but bulk shear has trended down from the past two days and is forecast to reach only 25kts. The latest CAMs are particularly excited on Clayton taking a hit between 4-7PM. Sunday's round of daytime heating triggered convection will be even more limited, with less shear and less moisture in the atmosphere. Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the primary hazard associated with Sunday's crop, which will follow a normal diurnal downtrend Sunday evening.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Moisture advection will ramp up significantly Monday ahead of a Pacific low advancing eastward from over SoCal. PWATs are forecast to surge above the 90th percentile across the area late Monday and the 00Z Tuesday KABQ upper air sounding and may challenge daily records. High PoPs are forecast from Monday through Tuesday, peaking Monday night across central NM. Widespread soaking (>0.25") rains are likely along/east of the RGV, with lower coverage of soaking rains west of the RGV. In terms of threats, strong/erratic wind gusts and small hail will be threats initially Monday afternoon, with the primary threat transitioning to locally heavy rainfall Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The risk for burn scar flash flooding is on the uptrend for Monday afternoon through Monday night, with broad scale forcing from the approaching Pacific low and moderate southeast low level flow feeding Gulf moisture up the slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. The NAM is particularly bullish with the qpf in the Sacramentos and the NBM shows the highest probabilities for 0.50-0.75" between Ruidoso and Capitan, with potential impacts on/near the Seven Cabins fire/burn scar as well. Storm total amounts of 1" or greater can not be ruled-out with this event. The focus will shift to eastern NM on Tuesday as the Pacific low opens up and lifts northeast across the state as a shortwave trough. Severe storms can not be ruled out across eastern NM on Tuesday, but will be difficult to generate sufficient instability given ongoing rain from overnight and debris clouds.

A potent upper low over NV/CA will steer drier westerlies into western NM Wednesday, sharpening up a moisture gradient across northeast NM where chances for storms will persist. Increasing southwest flow aloft around the periphery of the upper low will help to spread drier air east across the area and bring breezy to windy conditions by Thursday afternoon. Both the 12Z ECMWF and GFS bring a Pacific trough across the area next weekend, with more much-needed rainfall.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are still going in eastern New Mexico with most of the activity staying garden variety with isolated coverage. Small hail, gusty downbursts, lightning, and brief downpours will accompany. Farther west toward the Rio Grande, activity is much weaker, generally consisting of struggling showers producing more in the way of wind than rain. All of this activity will die off through sunset. There is a low probability (less than 30% chance) that outflow from storms will push westward into the Rio Grande tonight, briefly enhancing the development of an east wind, but given recent storm and wind trends, this scenario is looking increasingly unlikely. Less shower and storm activity with minimal coverage is forecast for Sunday. Light to moderate breezes from the south and southwest will develop Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days. Warm and dry conditions persists across western NM, while higher humidity and chances for wetting showers and storms continue along and east of the central mountain chain. Similar setup on Sunday, but even warmer overall with an upper high overhead. Moisture advection will be the rule Monday ahead of an approaching Pacific low, forecast to bring high humidity and widespread wetting rainfall late Monday through Tuesday. Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring drying Wed/Thu, with stronger winds on Thursday that will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. However, fuels may not be receptive to the rapid spread of fire on Thursday given wetting rainfall earlier in the week. Lower forecast confidence on another Pacific low bringing higher humidity and chances for wetting rain next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 47 86 52 82 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 39 82 43 80 / 0 0 0 40 Cuba............................ 44 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 30 Gallup.......................... 40 83 45 73 / 0 0 0 60 El Morro........................ 42 80 47 71 / 0 0 5 70 Grants.......................... 42 83 46 76 / 0 5 5 60 Quemado......................... 46 81 49 71 / 0 5 10 80 Magdalena....................... 52 82 55 75 / 0 0 0 80 Datil........................... 47 79 49 71 / 0 0 0 80 Reserve......................... 42 85 45 76 / 0 5 10 70 Glenwood........................ 45 89 47 81 / 0 0 10 60 Chama........................... 37 76 40 74 / 0 0 0 40 Los Alamos...................... 53 79 56 77 / 0 5 0 40 Pecos........................... 45 80 48 76 / 0 10 10 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 40 Red River....................... 36 67 39 66 / 0 5 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 32 72 35 70 / 0 10 10 60 Taos............................ 42 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 40 Mora............................ 43 76 47 74 / 0 20 10 60 Espanola........................ 49 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 50 81 53 78 / 0 5 0 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 86 61 81 / 0 0 0 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 87 59 82 / 0 0 0 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 89 58 85 / 0 0 0 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 40 Belen........................... 51 90 54 84 / 0 0 0 40 Bernalillo...................... 55 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 50 Bosque Farms.................... 50 89 53 84 / 0 0 0 50 Corrales........................ 54 89 57 84 / 0 0 0 40 Los Lunas....................... 50 89 53 84 / 0 0 0 40 Placitas........................ 56 85 60 80 / 0 0 0 60 Rio Rancho...................... 55 88 59 83 / 0 0 0 40 Socorro......................... 58 91 60 84 / 0 0 0 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 81 57 75 / 0 0 0 70 Tijeras......................... 52 83 56 78 / 0 0 0 70 Edgewood........................ 49 84 53 78 / 0 0 0 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 85 45 80 / 0 0 0 50 Clines Corners.................. 47 80 50 76 / 0 10 10 50 Mountainair..................... 48 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 70 Gran Quivira.................... 47 83 51 77 / 0 0 0 70 Carrizozo....................... 55 85 57 79 / 0 0 0 60 Ruidoso......................... 51 77 53 72 / 0 10 10 60 Capulin......................... 42 76 46 77 / 20 20 10 40 Raton........................... 43 80 46 81 / 10 10 10 40 Springer........................ 43 82 47 82 / 10 10 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 44 79 48 76 / 10 10 10 40 Clayton......................... 49 83 53 83 / 30 20 20 20 Roy............................. 47 81 51 80 / 10 10 10 30 Conchas......................... 52 90 56 88 / 10 5 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 50 87 54 84 / 10 5 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 53 91 57 89 / 20 5 10 40 Clovis.......................... 53 88 55 87 / 20 10 10 20 Portales........................ 53 89 56 88 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 52 90 55 88 / 10 5 10 30 Roswell......................... 57 93 60 91 / 0 5 10 10 Picacho......................... 52 86 54 83 / 0 5 10 30 Elk............................. 49 83 52 80 / 0 5 10 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.