textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A definitive shift in the monsoon circulation pattern has begun as the upper level ridge shifts east of NM thru at least early next week. An extended stretch of wet weather will target northern and western NM with the flooding risk expected to increase with each passing day of locally heavy rainfall.

The latest water vapor imagery and derived-motion winds show the monsoon moisture plume expanding northeastward across the southwest CONUS ahead of a 40kt speed max off the Baja coast. The H5 ridge over northern NM is weakening while getting shunted to the east. A convective circulation over northern Sonora early this morning will be drawn northward along the AZ/NM border this afternoon and into the Four Corners region tonight. 06Z satellite blended PWAT values have increased to near 1" over western NM and values are above 1.2" upstream over southern AZ. 00Z/06Z CAMs show showers and storms erupting over the high terrain early this afternoon then moving slowly north thru late tonight. The heaviest rainfall will focus along and west of the Cont Divide where REFS/HREF 6-hr LPMM QPF shows several bullseyes of 0.75 to 1.50" with a few isolated areas >2". These rainfall amounts would likely be enough to overcome the drier soils that have developed from the recent heatwave and dry stretch. A Flood Watch has been issued from 1PM to 10PM today for parts of western NM. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected along the central mt chain and the northern mts today but this area has seen a much longer stretch of dry weather. Nonetheless, there is still a chance for flash flooding beneath the heavier and more persistent cells in central NM.

Thursday is now trending toward a down day with widespread debris clouds from Wednesday night possibly limiting storm development. The Gila region may see enough clearing by the afternoon to allow for more vigorous storm development. Far northeast NM may also be an area to watch for storms as a weak surface boundary sags south from eastern CO. Temps may also trend a few degrees cooler than shown given potential for widespread cloud cover to linger into midday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Friday may be the next active day as another remnant convective wave from Mexico surges northward across NM. PWATs are shown peaking from near 1" over northern NM to near 1.4" over southern NM. NBM 24-hour mean QPF shows fairly widespread rainfall of 0.25" to 0.75" which is not overly impressive. However, the NBM 90th percentile values perk up on Friday with most high terrain areas averaging 1.25" to 1.75". These values may rise even more once hi-res models get a handle on the scenario. A larger area of Flood Watches may be needed.

Saturday and Sunday also have the potential to be active days as the moisture plume remains centered over central and western NM. More disturbances are shown moving north into the monsoon plume which may help to improve lift over the region over the weekend. However, as is always the case with monsoon bursts, thicker cloud cover may inhibit storm development on either of the days.

The GFS and ECMWF both show the upper level ridge strengthening to near 598dm with a westward extension into more of eastern NM by Monday. This may force the moisture plume west into far western NM and AZ. However, another upstream trough developing along the West Coast will dictate how far west the plume actually makes it. This trough is likely to force the moisture plume back eastward over NM thru next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A vigorous crop of SHRA/TS will develop along the Cont Divide between 12PM and 2PM then move north and west into nearby lowlands thru late tonight. Direct hits will be capable of MVFR vsbys from heavy rain and outflow wind gusts >35KT. This activity will drift north into the Four Corners as an area of rain with isolated TS thru late tonight. Storms are possible along the central mt chain and nearby Rio Grande Valley as well today but coverage is not expected to be as high as over western NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The coverage of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall amounts >1" will trend up today along and west of the central mt chain. Lightning strikes may still lead to new fire starts in dry fuel beds. A rich plume of monsoon moisture will stream northward across NM Thursday thru Sunday. Showers and storms will move north/ northeast each day and be capable or producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2" per hour. 5-day rainfall amounts ending Sunday will average 0.50 to 1.50" over northern and western NM, with locally heavier amounts >3" possible. This rainfall will help to moisten fuels and limit new fire starts from lightning. The risk for flash flooding will also increase on area burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 93 63 87 61 / 10 50 30 40 Dulce........................... 90 48 85 48 / 40 50 60 60 Cuba............................ 88 56 83 55 / 30 40 40 50 Gallup.......................... 86 54 81 52 / 50 50 60 40 El Morro........................ 82 52 77 51 / 60 50 70 40 Grants.......................... 87 55 83 54 / 60 50 70 40 Quemado......................... 81 56 77 55 / 80 40 70 40 Magdalena....................... 86 61 83 61 / 60 10 80 30 Datil........................... 81 55 77 54 / 70 20 70 30 Reserve......................... 87 55 83 53 / 80 40 80 30 Glenwood........................ 91 58 88 57 / 50 50 80 20 Chama........................... 83 48 79 48 / 50 40 80 50 Los Alamos...................... 88 60 83 59 / 40 30 50 50 Pecos........................... 89 57 86 57 / 20 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 87 56 83 55 / 20 30 40 30 Red River....................... 81 46 73 46 / 40 20 60 20 Angel Fire...................... 82 39 79 38 / 40 10 70 10 Taos............................ 90 53 85 53 / 20 20 30 30 Mora............................ 87 54 83 53 / 30 10 60 20 Espanola........................ 95 60 90 60 / 30 30 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 90 61 86 61 / 20 30 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 59 89 58 / 20 20 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 67 90 66 / 20 20 20 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 65 92 65 / 20 20 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 64 94 63 / 20 20 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 67 92 66 / 20 20 30 40 Belen........................... 97 63 93 63 / 20 10 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 97 66 94 65 / 20 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 97 62 93 61 / 20 20 20 40 Corrales........................ 98 66 94 66 / 20 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 97 64 93 63 / 20 20 20 40 Placitas........................ 92 65 89 64 / 20 20 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 97 66 93 66 / 20 20 30 40 Socorro......................... 98 67 94 66 / 30 10 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 58 84 57 / 20 20 30 30 Tijeras......................... 91 60 88 60 / 20 20 30 30 Edgewood........................ 92 56 89 56 / 20 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 55 90 55 / 20 20 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 89 59 86 58 / 20 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 91 57 88 57 / 20 10 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 90 58 87 58 / 20 10 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 92 65 89 64 / 20 10 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 85 59 83 59 / 30 20 30 5 Capulin......................... 90 57 86 55 / 5 5 40 20 Raton........................... 93 56 90 55 / 5 10 40 10 Springer........................ 96 57 92 56 / 5 5 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 91 57 88 56 / 10 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 98 66 96 64 / 0 0 20 30 Roy............................. 94 61 91 60 / 0 5 20 10 Conchas......................... 102 69 99 67 / 0 5 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 97 67 94 65 / 5 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 103 71 100 68 / 0 5 5 20 Clovis.......................... 101 70 99 69 / 0 5 5 10 Portales........................ 102 71 99 70 / 0 10 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 101 69 98 68 / 0 5 10 20 Roswell......................... 102 71 100 71 / 5 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 96 66 94 65 / 20 20 30 5 Elk............................. 92 62 91 61 / 20 20 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 1 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for NMZ202-205-206-208-209.