textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- A risk of rapid fire spread will expand across all of northern and central New Mexico today.

- Damaging wind gusts will impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico through this afternoon.

- Most areas will experience a hard freeze tonight, including portions of the Rio Grande Valley.

- A strong area of high pressure will move over the region going into the middle of next week resulting in record warmth for March.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A vigorous early spring trough is taking shape and targeting the central Rockies and Great Plains early this morning. A 175 kt jet streak on the backside of the feature at 300 mb is leading the charge and helping the perturbation to rapidly dig southeastward. Winds aloft will consequently spike up through the morning, especially at ridgetop level, as 700 mb speeds are still modeled to reach 50 to 70 kt over much of the highland areas of NM before dawn. The High Wind Watch over the Continental Divide was revised to an Advisory last evening, and gusts of 55 mph are expected to be common over the higher terrain.

Shortly after sunrise, the thermal trough aloft will have overtaken CO and will be spilling into northern NM zones through the mid morning via two frontal segments, a Pacific and backdoor. The core of the colder air will stay to our north, but significant cold air advection will still befall over NM, especially over northern zones with the northeastern corner observing the starkest drops in temperatures. The strong baroclinicity associated with the trough is leading to some very strong to severe winds along and behind the front. These will start spilling in over northwestern and northeastern zones this morning before converging and expanding southward. The High Wind Warning for the central mountain chain eastward into much of the plains looks on track with many zones slated to reach gusts of 60 mph and closer to 70 mph over the mountains and highlands. There could be a transient sucker hole with lower wind speeds where the two frontal segments (Pacific and backdoor) meet somewhere over the interface of the central highlands and high plains. Most of these zones should still meet High Wind criteria at some point though. Blowing dust will also be a concern, given the recent drought conditions, especially for dust prone areas, and dry air advection behind the front will create exceptionally low humidity that will create high fire danger amidst the very gusty winds. Winds look to likely peak around noon in many zones with a slow and gradual decrease in speed toward dusk, followed by a more notable deceleration.

Surface high pressure will continue to sag southward over the plains of west TX and eastern NM tonight. The stiff surface pressure gradient will gradually relax overnight with some modest cold air damming over the eastern plains. This will keep winds slowly reducing overnight with cold overnight lows in the teens and 20's. A brief easterly wind component may sneak through gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain this evening into the overnight hours, but any associated gusts should be brief and temporary. Western and central zones will be cold too with a hard freeze for many tonight, but readings will tend to be in the 20's to low 30's versus the teens.

Surface winds will veer southerly over the plains on Monday as the surface high puts more distance between it and eastern NM. The flow aloft will have reduced substantially by Monday, but speeds of 15 to 35 kt are still progged at 700 mb. This could keep breezy to windy conditions continuing for the usual suspects that are prone to gusts in northwest flow. This includes a corridor from the Four Corners southeastward to the central highlands. Temperatures would stay below normal by 8 to 15 degrees in the eastern plains Monday, but other remaining zones would run near to slightly above average.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The northwest flow aloft will relax slightly more into Tuesday, but the same corridor as mentioned above for Monday will remain breezy. In the east, a lee-side surface trough will quickly develop Tuesday afternoon with the veering and downsloping wind component leading to compressional warming and a significant jump up in temperatures there. Heights would also be on the increase statewide as an unseasonably strong dome of high pressure sets up over southern CA. This will allow temperatures to exceed climatology by 8 to 18 degrees, a trend that will persist through the end of the week. The high is modeled to reach about 591 decameters on Tuesday (about 3 standard deviation above seasonal climatology), rising closer to 593- 596 decameters by Wednesday and Thursday (about 3.8 standard deviations above normal) as it slowly crosses the lower CO river basin. This fortified upper high will cause winds aloft to reduce more, but temperature anomalies of 15 to 25 degrees will potentially produce some uncharacteristic heat impacts ahead of the Spring Equinox. Nailing down daytime highs each day will prove challenging, given the anomalous event and the inherent struggles that model guidance faces during seasonal transitions.

The upper high weakens very little into Friday and Saturday, moving closer to the AZ-NM border. This will keep our warm to hot and very dry stretch (daily rounds of ~5% humidity in the afternoons) going with strong winds staying absent. This looks to potentially change into early next week as westerlies return, suppress the high farther south, and erode it.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winds aloft are surging up in speed this morning with northwest winds of 40 to 70 kt buffeting mountain peaks and ridgetops while creating mountain wave activity to the lee (east). Surface winds in valleys and other sheltered lower elevation locations are currently much lighter with just occasional breezy conditions, but has led to low level wind shear within the lowest few thousand feet above the surface. Surface winds will quickly turn strong to severe through the mid to late morning as a powerful cold front sweeps in with many locations forecast to observe gusts of 35 to 55 kt around mid day. Areas of blowing dust will be a wild card, and dust prone locations will likely observe visibility reductions into the MVFR category (3 to 5 miles), or perhaps down to IFR (1 to 3 miles). Winds will slacken after sunset with speeds continuing to decrease through late evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A widespread critical fire weather day is taking shape over most of northern and central NM as a vigorous cold front approaches. While cold fronts typically do not fit the conceptual model for critical fire weather, the incoming strong to severe winds will combine with exceptional dry air advection, creating a unique and concerning event. Widespread gusts of 40 to 60 mph are still slated for most zones with higher gusts near 70 mph over the central mountains/highlands. Surface dewpoints are still projected to plummet below zero (deg F) which will bottom-out humidity values (5 to 10% in the majority of zones). Both the Pacific and backdoor segments of the front will bring several degrees of cooling to NM today with many areas dropping back to, or slightly below normal, after yesterday's record warmth. Still, areas along and south of I- 40 will largely reach 60 degrees or more for highs which would seem to be capable of carrying any ongoing fires.

A colder night and a hard freeze will be on tap for many tonight through Monday morning. Winds will be notably weaker on Monday, but a corridor of breezy to windy conditions will still stretch from the Four Corners down to the central highlands. This will produce some marginal or localized critical conditions, particularly over the northwest plateau (Farmington area) where a couple to a few hours of gusts to 35 mph will be possible Monday afternoon. No Watches are planned for this area due to the relatively small spatial area that will be impacted.

Wind speeds will reduce more into Tuesday, but breezy conditions will again be found over northwestern to central areas with wind speeds forecast to stay below critical thresholds. Temperatures will soar above normal Tuesday and again each day through the end of the week as a very stout ridge of high pressure takes residence over the southwestern states. Wind speeds will continue to lower into the middle of the week, but many high temperature records will likely occur with extremely low afternoon humidity each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 28 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 54 20 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 51 23 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 58 22 66 28 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 60 25 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 63 30 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 66 33 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 63 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 30 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 77 33 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 48 19 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 29 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 54 19 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 18 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 36 15 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 45 7 51 20 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 51 13 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 52 19 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 59 24 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 24 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 22 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 36 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 33 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 32 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 70 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 30 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 67 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 30 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 29 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 32 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 73 36 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 58 31 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 58 25 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 60 15 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 56 16 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 60 24 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 62 21 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 26 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 38 8 48 25 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 48 10 51 22 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 54 11 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 57 15 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 13 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 53 13 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 60 17 57 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 20 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 59 15 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 62 20 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 18 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 17 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 72 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 19 62 32 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ201-204-212- 218-219-238-240.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ221-222- 224-230>232-234>237.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ206>208-211.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ213>215- 223-226>229-233-239.