textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Seasonable temperatures return with chances for showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning, which could lead to future fire starts. Low confidence exists for wetting rainfall.

- After a quiet and warmer Wednesday, more unsettled weather will round out the week with chances for showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Split flow has become established with the polar jet dipping out of western Canada and into the eastern ConUS while the subtropical segment crosses Mexico and the deep southern states. This is leaving a lighter wind field aloft over NM with a weak ridge over the Great Basin and southwestern states. Breezes will consequently remain light to moderate (10-25 mph) for the most part today, except in northeastern zones where gusts will be closer to 30-35 mph thanks to a tighter surface gradient there. There is enough mid level moisture present along with some easterly upslope flow to kick off high-based and low-topped thunderstorms near and west of the Big Bend area into eastern Chihuahua. It is looking less likely that any appreciable moisture will make it into our southwestern zones today, but a stray virga shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Mid to high level clouds will increase much more significantly into Monday morning with western areas of NM observing the most mid level moisture advection as a shortwave trough moves across the lower CO river basin and spreads weak diffluent flow our way. This will increase the chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. The lee-side surface trough will hug close to the front range again on Monday with a tight surface gradient producing another round of gusty winds (up to 30-35 mph again) in our northeastern NM zones. High temperatures on Monday would run a degree or two withing today's readings.

The shortwave trough will continue trekking eastward, moving out of AZ and into NM Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This will spread more mid level (700-500 mb layer) moisture into NM with temperature/humidity profiles evolving from inverted-V signatures to more of a moist adiabat with top-down moistening toward the surface. Any dry storms or virga Monday evening would consequently transition to more of a garden variety light shower with low QPF of generally just a few hundredths of an inch through early Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The shortwave trough feature still does not look to host much of a temperature gradient or thermal trough through the day Tuesday, but weak destabilization will persist with lots of areas nearing saturation at the 700 mb level. This will help spread isolated to scattered showers over a large majority of the forecast area, but again weak forcing and the marginally convective nature should limit the QPF to less than 0.1 inch for most areas outside of the northern mountains. Temperatures would not alter all that much Tuesday, and breezy to windy conditions will redevelop again in east central to northeastern zones. Rain showers and any thunderstorms will wane Tuesday evening as the shortwave trough pushes east of NM.

West northwest flow aloft will then prevail into Wednesday with a subtle ridge upstream to our west an a low moving eastward along the Canadian border. This will spell drier, warmer, and breezy conditions for Wednesday. As Thursday, Friday, and Saturday approach, an upstream low pressure system will move off of the eastern Pacific into southern CA, spread diffluent and stronger southwesterlies aloft into NM. At the surface, moisture from the Gulf will advect into west TX and portions of eastern NM, setting up the seasonal dryline, our favored mechanism to trigger afternoon and evening convection this time of year. Previous NBM guidance was lagging considerably from deterministic guidance for Thursday, but seems to be latching on to the deeper boundary layer moisture staying in west TX with a reduction to just isolated (10-20%) POPs. On Friday, however, the NBM appears a bit too aggressive with its westward spread of POPs as far as the Rio Grande valley, despite the better moisture (dewpoints of 40+ F) staying east of the central mountain chain. Discrepancies then grow among the latest deterministic models into Sunday due to uncertainties with regards to the track that the low will eject along.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Scattered mid to high level clouds are entering southern portions of New Mexico, and some of these will struggle to get into central areas of the state. A few high-based weak showers may develop over southwestern and south central high terrain areas just before dusk, but these will produce little, if any, appreciable rain. Instead, gusty outflow winds will accompany any of this shower activity. Otherwise prevailing breezes will tend to be light to moderate (5 to 25 kt) with a few higher gusts in northeastern areas of New Mexico. VFR conditions will hold.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Prevailing winds will remain strongest in northeastern NM today where gusts may occasionally hit 30 to 35 mph, enough for marginal or spotty critical conditions where humidity will also be hovering near the 15% criteria. No Red Flag Warning has been issued, but concerns are mounting, especially going into the very similar pattern that will follow in this area on Monday with very high Energy Release Components (ERCs). Otherwise today, faint moisture increases may lead to a stray high-based virga shower or two over southwestern NM, but the threat for any dry lightning is not as prominent today. However, any showers will be capable of producing a localized gusty wind threat.

A redeveloping lee-side surface trough hugging the CO front range will once again lead to another round of windy conditions in northeastern zones on Monday, where a lower end, but still critical, threat will develop in the afternoon. Given the high ERCs (climbing to ~87th to 90th percentile), will go ahead and hoist a Fire Weather Watch for the northeast highlands and far northeastern plains for Monday. The other concern will take shape in western NM where additional mid level moisture will arrive and initiate a few high- based dry thunderstorms late in the afternoon. These would have the low, but present, potential to produce new ignitions while fanning said activity with gusty outflows.

Moisture increases more Monday evening through Tuesday with light rainfall spreading eastward into more of the forecast area upon the arrival of a weak trough aloft. Unfortunately, rainfall will likely stay below 0.1 inch for most, but humidity will get a boost upward on Tuesday due to the increased clouds, showers, and storm activity. Lightning and a new ignition threat will be present, but minimal on Tuesday. Prevailing winds will again be strongest in east central to northeastern NM Tuesday where gusts may occasionally high 25 to 30 mph.

A shift to drier, warmer, and breezy conditions arrives on Wednesday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. The focus for the remainder of the week will be on the dryline which looks to set up in west TX on Thursday before sloshing westward into the NM plains on Friday. Above normal temperatures would prevail, and western zones would stay dry with low (10-15%) afternoon humidity while breezy conditions prevail. Much uncertainty rests in the forecast for Saturday due to the possible track outcomes of an upstream Pacific low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 40 71 43 70 / 0 10 20 20 Dulce........................... 26 67 31 64 / 0 10 20 60 Cuba............................ 32 63 36 63 / 0 5 20 50 Gallup.......................... 32 68 35 67 / 0 30 30 30 El Morro........................ 35 63 37 62 / 0 30 40 50 Grants.......................... 31 66 36 65 / 0 20 30 50 Quemado......................... 37 65 39 64 / 5 40 40 40 Magdalena....................... 38 62 43 63 / 0 10 40 50 Datil........................... 34 62 39 61 / 0 30 40 50 Reserve......................... 32 67 35 67 / 10 40 40 40 Glenwood........................ 35 70 38 72 / 10 30 40 30 Chama........................... 28 60 31 57 / 0 20 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 38 62 41 60 / 0 5 20 70 Pecos........................... 30 64 35 60 / 0 5 20 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 62 34 58 / 0 10 20 70 Red River....................... 26 56 29 52 / 0 20 20 80 Angel Fire...................... 16 60 23 55 / 0 20 20 80 Taos............................ 27 65 31 62 / 0 10 10 70 Mora............................ 29 63 34 58 / 0 10 10 70 Espanola........................ 34 69 38 66 / 0 5 10 60 Santa Fe........................ 37 63 41 62 / 0 5 20 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 66 39 65 / 0 5 20 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 67 47 66 / 0 5 20 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 69 48 68 / 0 5 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 71 42 71 / 0 5 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 69 47 69 / 0 5 20 40 Belen........................... 36 70 44 71 / 0 5 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 40 70 45 70 / 0 5 20 50 Bosque Farms.................... 35 70 41 70 / 0 5 30 40 Corrales........................ 40 70 45 70 / 0 5 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 35 69 43 70 / 0 5 30 40 Placitas........................ 41 66 46 66 / 0 5 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 42 68 46 69 / 0 5 20 40 Socorro......................... 40 69 47 70 / 0 5 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 63 41 62 / 0 5 20 50 Tijeras......................... 38 64 43 64 / 0 5 20 60 Edgewood........................ 33 64 39 63 / 0 5 20 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 67 33 65 / 0 5 20 50 Clines Corners.................. 31 62 38 60 / 0 5 20 60 Mountainair..................... 32 64 40 63 / 0 5 30 50 Gran Quivira.................... 31 63 40 63 / 0 5 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 36 64 43 64 / 0 10 40 50 Ruidoso......................... 33 60 39 57 / 0 10 50 50 Capulin......................... 31 63 30 62 / 0 0 0 50 Raton........................... 27 69 30 65 / 0 5 5 60 Springer........................ 28 69 32 67 / 0 5 5 60 Las Vegas....................... 30 64 35 61 / 0 0 5 60 Clayton......................... 41 69 40 67 / 0 0 0 30 Roy............................. 34 64 37 63 / 0 0 0 50 Conchas......................... 34 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 40 Santa Rosa...................... 33 67 40 66 / 0 0 5 40 Tucumcari....................... 37 73 42 70 / 0 0 0 40 Clovis.......................... 37 71 42 66 / 0 0 5 30 Portales........................ 35 75 41 68 / 0 0 5 30 Fort Sumner..................... 33 69 41 68 / 0 0 5 30 Roswell......................... 39 70 46 67 / 0 5 20 40 Picacho......................... 35 64 43 64 / 0 5 30 50 Elk............................. 31 62 38 61 / 0 10 50 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ104-123.