textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Saturday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, ponding of water on roads, as well as a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The monsoon high has built northward a bit and become a bit more concentric with less of a west-to-east elongation. This will keep light winds aloft over NM, creating sluggish steering flows while 500 mb heights of 597-598 decameters correspond to above normal, and potentially record-breaking temperatures. This will make it difficult for slow-moving storms to propagate off of the terrain, and convective initiation in lower elevations will be largely dependent on mesoscale cold pools to catalyze development. However, a few stray updrafts will have enough instability to work with to generate isolated storms, even in the eastern plains through the evening. Storms are modeled to dissipate through the evening with minimal, if any, shower activity surviving beyond midnight.

On Saturday, the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the northeast, centering near the NM-CO border with heights reaching 596-598 decameters. Slightly drier air will wrap into NM, and this will keep the heat going while storm coverage reduces and confines itself toward the western and northern high terrain. Any storms over the northern high terrain would likely become less efficient rainfall producers due to the lower PWATs (0.6 to 0.7 inch). Temperature-wise, lots of 90's and low 100's will be prevalent, especially over the lower elevation valleys and plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper high will then settle slightly southward into Sunday with similar height and wind fields. Deterministic QPF again focuses convective initiation over the western and northern mountains Sunday afternoon with minimal storms elsewhere. A shortwave trough is modeled on the northern periphery of the high in CO, and this could ignite a few storms that sag into northern NM, but this feature will likely become more of a player into Monday, as it moves into the plains and sends a backdoor front into northeastern NM.

Subtle dewpoint rises and more of an upslope surface wind component will lead to better convective initiation on the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos Monday. Subsequent outflow will then potentially spread additional storms farther south and west with minimal changes to the storm coverage elsewhere through Monday evening.

By Tuesday, the GFS continues to keep the northeast favored for storms, although surface winds will have veered and/or lost much of their upslope component by then. The long range ensembles also latch on to the northeast and secondarily the western mountains for Tuesday with the high having settled just south of I-40.

The consensus is for the high to nudge slightly southwestward into Wednesday, bringing more of a northwesterly wind component aloft to the northeastern corner of NM. This will open the door to another moist front that could reintroduce storms to northeastern and east central zones through Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, PWATs of 0.6 to 0.8 inch will keep storms going over other western and northern high terrain areas, but with spotty rainfall footprints. Overall heights are shown to start reducing by 1 to 3 decameters Wednesday, but temperatures will still be above average by 5 to 10 degrees in most locales.

For Thursday, the high is modeled to remain centered over southwestern NM with only slight reductions in heights (594-596 decameters at 500 mb). Storm coverage will depend on recycling of previous day's moisture, but for now PWATs are shown to range from 0.7 to 1.1 inch with the eastern plains observing higher values.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into the evening with cells initially developing over the higher mountainous terrain. Storms will be slow-moving and will struggle to fill in over the nearby lower elevations, but a few stray cells will manage, even into the east central plains early this evening. The primary threats will be gusty downburst winds, small hail, lightning, and brief heavy downpours temporarily reducing visibility and ceilings. Storms will dwindle and dissipate through the mid to late evening. Less storms are forecast on Saturday with activity mostly staying confined to the western and northern high terrain of New Mexico.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No widespread, long duration wind concerns are forecast through the next several days as high pressure aloft dominates the weather pattern. The monsoon high will keep winds aloft light, and any gusty wind concerns will mostly emanate from brief-lived thunderstorm outflows. The upper high will remain strong through the forecast period, keeping temperatures hot. The position of this feature will also inhibit the arrival of any new moisture increases, leading to a more subdued coverage of storms, and activity will be mostly focused over the western and northern high terrain each day. The exception will be with occasional increases in storms over northeastern NM next week where weak backdoor frontal intrusions arrive. The hot temperatures and generally more subdued moisture will lead to lower humidity values in the afternoons with minimum RH values of 12 to 20% being more common each day. The overnight and morning humidity recoveries will also be impacted with readings only rising to 40-60% in many zones with bouts of higher recovery in the eastern plains when weak, moist surface boundaries and subsequent storms arrive next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 94 65 95 / 30 10 20 5 Dulce........................... 54 91 52 91 / 30 40 20 20 Cuba............................ 59 89 59 90 / 30 20 20 20 Gallup.......................... 58 90 57 90 / 30 40 20 30 El Morro........................ 56 85 56 86 / 30 50 30 40 Grants.......................... 59 89 58 90 / 30 50 20 40 Quemado......................... 60 86 58 86 / 20 50 20 40 Magdalena....................... 64 88 63 89 / 20 30 20 20 Datil........................... 59 85 58 85 / 20 40 20 30 Reserve......................... 59 93 57 93 / 20 30 20 30 Glenwood........................ 64 98 63 98 / 10 30 20 20 Chama........................... 54 84 53 84 / 30 50 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 88 64 87 / 20 20 20 40 Pecos........................... 58 90 59 90 / 20 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 86 57 85 / 20 40 20 50 Red River....................... 45 80 46 78 / 20 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 37 83 41 82 / 20 50 20 20 Taos............................ 57 90 57 88 / 20 30 20 20 Mora............................ 55 87 55 86 / 20 30 20 40 Espanola........................ 59 95 61 94 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 91 63 90 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 93 61 93 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 67 95 / 10 5 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 95 68 96 / 10 5 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 97 63 98 / 10 5 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 69 97 / 10 5 10 5 Belen........................... 67 98 65 99 / 5 5 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 96 67 97 / 10 5 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 97 63 97 / 10 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 66 97 67 98 / 10 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 97 64 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 93 65 94 / 10 5 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 96 68 96 / 10 5 20 5 Socorro......................... 71 99 70 99 / 10 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 63 90 / 10 5 20 0 Tijeras......................... 64 91 64 91 / 20 5 20 0 Edgewood........................ 61 90 60 91 / 20 10 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 93 57 93 / 20 5 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 61 90 61 90 / 20 5 20 5 Mountainair..................... 62 91 61 92 / 20 5 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 62 90 61 91 / 20 5 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 66 95 / 10 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 54 87 58 88 / 10 30 10 10 Capulin......................... 59 89 58 88 / 20 30 30 40 Raton........................... 57 93 58 91 / 20 20 20 40 Springer........................ 57 96 58 94 / 20 20 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 57 91 58 91 / 20 10 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 98 67 97 / 20 5 20 20 Roy............................. 62 95 64 94 / 20 5 10 10 Conchas......................... 68 102 70 101 / 20 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 98 67 98 / 20 0 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 102 71 102 / 20 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 70 99 70 100 / 20 5 5 0 Portales........................ 70 100 71 101 / 20 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 100 69 101 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 102 70 103 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 97 66 98 / 10 10 0 0 Elk............................. 63 92 62 93 / 10 20 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.