textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 433 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico will produce erratic wind gusts and dangerous lightning with localized moderate rainfall amounts today and tonight.

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds pick up this afternoon mostly through western New Mexico where peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will develop.

- Light rain will turn more spotty into Monday and Tuesday while breezy to windy conditions become more common.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Saturday's shower and thunderstorm coverage was very underwhelming, and prospects are not overly high for most locations in the western half of the forecast area for Sunday. That being said, there are a few notable differences in the overall synoptic setup. A cold core low has scooped up the remnants of tropical storm Rachel, and is now making its way inland into southern CA. While deeper tropical moisture is getting advected into that region, it is much more tempered into NM with PWATs projected to stay in a 0.7 to 1.0 range. The southwesterlies aloft will be increasing significantly, steering any showers or storms quickly toward the northeast at 30 to 45 mph. This will reduce residence time and opportunities for rainfall accumulation. While cloud cover was quite substantial on Saturday, a clearing in the high levels could offer a bit more insolation this afternoon, but overall instability is quite weak and generally modeled to be unremarkable (between 100-500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE with localized enhancements of 500-600 J/kg near the Divide). Large scale ascent will be increasing too, but it is doubtful that many updrafts will be strong enough and long enough to sustain any severe cells despite ample speed shear. All this to say, QPF amounts will be light, and gusty outflow winds will be easier to come by, especially with stronger background winds, as 700 mb speeds will be rising to 25 to 40 kt across the forecast area while another lee-side surface trough deepens in eastern CO. No Wind Advisory is planned, but a few sites will likely see gusts of 40 to 45 mph this afternoon. Temperatures will run close to normal in the western half of the forecast area while eastern zones climb 5 to 10 degrees above.

CAMs show that a north-south oriented, broken/discontinuous batch of showers and thunderstorms will move toward and just east of the central mountain chain this evening with activity dwindling more as it gets farther east into the plains in the early morning hours Monday. The remnants of Rachel and its cold core low usher will be racing toward the northern Rockies by early Monday morning with a new low setting up over the western states. This will keep stiff southwesterlies aloft over NM with another lee-side surface cyclone setting up over eastern CO again, producing another breezy to windy day. PWATs will start to decrease to 0.5 to 0.6 inch in many zones Monday with the exception being the far southeastern plains where values will of an inch or more will hold. With the primary upstream low moving toward northern NV and a southern vort lobe carving out a trough into southern CA, there will be some more large scale ascent preceding into NM, but lowering moisture and instability will further limit our POPs Monday. This will put winds as the primary impact for Monday, but with 700 mb speeds of generally 20 to 30 kt, the overall surface gusts are not forecast to be as strong as today's. Temperatures will cool a couple degrees in western zones and gain a couple (5 to 13 degrees above normal) in eastern ones on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The southern CA trough will merge with the upper low over southern NV on Tuesday. The winds over NM will stay fairly brisk out of the southwest with 700 mb speeds reducing to a 15 to 30 kt range while the lee-side surface low sags into southeastern CO in a weakened fashion. A more substantial and broadened dry slot will precede the upper low, overtaking most of NM through Tuesday, shrinking rainfall opportunities to just scant showers over northwestern zones and perhaps along the eastern NM border with west TX. Lowering heights would reduce temperatures across the forecast area Tuesday with eastern zones still remaining 5 to 10 degrees above climatology.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the primary core of the polar jet will be well northward into Canada with the subtropical fetch stretching northeastward across NM into the Great Lakes. The orientation and placement of the jet streak incoming off of the Pacific into British Columbia and Alberta will have significant ramifications on the fate of the ConUS upper low Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF have retained some run-to-run continuity to their respective previous solutions from the past couple of days, but these solutions vary drastically from model to model. The GFS/GEFS solutions are mostly in favor of a northwest-to-southeast oriented jet streak strengthening over British Columbia and Alberta Wednesday into Thursday, scooping up the low out and kicking it out east northeastward. Meanwhile ECMWF/EPS solutions are more prone to keep the low cut off from the polar jet, causing it to retrograde back into the southwestern US. Either outcome would lead to cooler temperatures, but the former GFS/GEFS would lend to more tranquil and dry conditions while the latter ECMWF/EPS scenarios are much different and wetter with the upper low west of NM allowing remnant moisture from hurricane Simon to retrograde back westward into the state by the end of the work week. Needless to say, large uncertainties remain in the extended forecast Wednesday onward. Ensemble means for PWATs are rather dry (0.3 to 0.5 inch over most of NM) which would suggest the latter and wet solutions of the operational ECMWF might be overdone or outliers. For now, 10 to 30% POPs are in the forecast for eastern zones for Thursday and Friday, reducing to 10 to 20% over central zones into Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across western New Mexico, rolling toward central portions of the state by the early evening. Gusty winds to 45 kt, very brief downpours, and lightning will accompany. The background, or prevailing winds outside of storms will also strengthen this afternoon with occasional gusts of 25 to 40 kt being more widespread. Showers and storms will be aligning near or just east of the central mountain chain through the evening, decreasing and dying off over the eastern plains after midnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Winds will increase more today as the gradient aloft tightens and a lee-side surface low deepens over eastern CO. Occasional surface gusts of 25 to 45 mph will become more widespread, but fortunately these increased winds will be offset with higher humidity values of 25 to 35 percent through the afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will also help moisten things on localized scales as scattered, fast-moving cells race northeastward across the western half of NM this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be low, generally amounting to just a few hundredths of an inch. These showers and storms will translate into portions of central NM this evening before falling apart in the eastern plains late tonight and early Monday morning. Winds will also remain fairly brisk on Monday and Tuesday, but gusts should tend to stay in a 25 to 35 mph range. Afternoon humidity values of 25 to 35 percent should persist through Monday and Tuesday, preventing any critical fire weather concerns. A great deal of uncertainty still exists in the extended forecast Wednesday onward, but again no periods of widespread critical fire weather are currently advertised by forecast models.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 76 52 70 51 / 40 20 10 30 Dulce........................... 71 42 65 42 / 70 90 30 50 Cuba............................ 71 46 67 45 / 40 30 10 0 Gallup.......................... 72 45 66 44 / 40 40 10 20 El Morro........................ 70 42 66 42 / 20 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 75 46 70 45 / 20 5 10 0 Quemado......................... 71 46 67 45 / 20 10 10 0 Magdalena....................... 74 50 72 49 / 20 10 10 0 Datil........................... 70 46 67 44 / 20 10 20 0 Reserve......................... 71 49 66 48 / 80 60 20 10 Glenwood........................ 75 53 69 52 / 80 60 30 10 Chama........................... 64 41 59 41 / 80 90 40 50 Los Alamos...................... 72 50 68 48 / 30 40 10 5 Pecos........................... 73 47 70 46 / 20 50 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 45 66 44 / 20 70 20 10 Red River....................... 61 39 58 37 / 20 70 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 68 38 63 35 / 20 40 20 0 Taos............................ 73 45 68 43 / 20 60 10 10 Mora............................ 72 44 70 43 / 10 30 5 0 Espanola........................ 79 50 75 49 / 30 40 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 73 50 70 48 / 30 50 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 50 73 48 / 20 40 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 56 76 54 / 20 20 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 55 77 55 / 20 20 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 56 79 55 / 20 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 56 77 54 / 20 20 5 0 Belen........................... 82 54 80 54 / 10 10 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 81 55 78 54 / 20 20 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 82 54 79 54 / 20 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 81 56 78 54 / 20 20 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 55 79 54 / 20 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 78 55 75 53 / 20 20 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 80 55 77 54 / 20 20 5 0 Socorro......................... 83 56 80 55 / 20 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 49 71 48 / 20 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 75 51 73 50 / 20 20 5 0 Edgewood........................ 76 49 74 48 / 10 20 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 48 76 47 / 10 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 51 72 49 / 10 20 5 0 Mountainair..................... 75 50 72 49 / 10 20 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 51 72 51 / 10 30 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 58 76 56 / 0 40 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 52 70 52 / 0 40 5 0 Capulin......................... 76 51 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 80 48 78 45 / 0 10 0 0 Springer........................ 82 49 80 47 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 75 49 72 48 / 0 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 82 60 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 79 54 78 52 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 87 61 87 59 / 5 20 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 84 58 83 57 / 10 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 87 63 88 60 / 0 10 0 5 Clovis.......................... 85 61 86 60 / 0 5 0 10 Portales........................ 86 62 87 62 / 0 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 85 61 86 60 / 10 20 0 5 Roswell......................... 89 61 90 63 / 0 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 57 84 57 / 10 30 5 0 Elk............................. 81 55 80 55 / 0 40 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.