textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Accumulating rainfall will result in ponding of water on roads with a risk of hydroplaning in the mountains, and mainly at lower elevations near the Arizona and Colorado borders tonight through Wednesday. Snow covered and icy roads are also forecast on northern mountain passes over 9000 feet.

- Strong west winds Wednesday through Friday will create hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles, especially over eastern New Mexico.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread east of the central mountain chain Thursday and Friday.

- Isolated to widely scattered and gusty virga showers and mainly dry thunderstorms early next week will increase the risk of new fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Rain showers and high terrain snow showers will increase in coverage tonight, then spread onto the eastern plains as well Wednesday morning as an upper level trough passes eastward over the central and southern Rockies. After peaking in coverage Wednesday morning, precip will decrease in coverage during the afternoon as skies gradually clear from the west. Liquid and liquid equivalent precip amounts should generally reach around a quarter to a half inch in the mountains and at lower elevations of northwest and north central NM, with lighter amounts at lower elevations further south, and over an inch in the Tusas Mountains. Several inches of snow are forecast above 9000 feet in the Tusas Mountains and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with a few inches near and above 9000 feet in the Jemez and Chuska Mountains. There will be thunderstorms in the mix on Wednesday, mostly along and north of I-40. Stronger cells will be capable of localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph. Strong southwest winds are also forecast to gust up to 50 mph across northeast and east central areas on Wednesday afternoon until sunset, and also along the east slopes of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains. The night shift may issue a Wind Advisory for Wednesday, but the day shift held off due to model differences on when the clouds and precip will exit the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. If it stays too cloudy too long, there probably won't be enough vertical mixing in the atmosphere for wind gusts to reach 50 mph over a broad enough area or for a long enough period of time to warrant a Wind Advisory Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

As the aforementioned upper level trough exits eastward on Wednesday night, an upper level low pressure system will move into the western US keeping the flow aloft strong over NM for Thursday and Friday. A ~990 mb surface low will also develop in eastern CO on Friday, helping to produce southwest wind gusts from 25 to 35 mph across the forecast area, except up to 45 mph across the northeast. Humidities will also plummet in the downslope flow on Thursday with fire weather concerns east of the central mountain chain. The wind direction will shift out of the northwest by Friday morning as the upper low shifts eastward onto the upper Great Plains, then gusts from 25-40 mph will probably return to much of the forecast area in the afternoon. Humidities will drop near 10 percent across much of the forecast area on Friday, when fire weather concerns look to linger east of the central mountain chain while spreading to the northwest plateau. After highs a few to around 11 degrees above average on Thursday, readings will fall a few to several degrees on Friday. Highs Friday afternoon should only reach the 50s across the northwest plateau, mitigating the fire weather threat there somewhat.

In the wake of a backdoor cold front Friday night, temperatures will fall near to as much as 9 degrees below average across the forecast area on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will also build over the southwest US this weekend enabling high temperatures to trend warmer early in the coming week. However, some models depict a rich return flow of low level moisture, and a disturbance undercutting the ridge that could work with this moisture to spread the chance for gusty and very light showers and thunderstorms mainly to central and western parts of the forecast area Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Westerly winds with gusts between 20 and 35kt will prevail through sunset across the majority of northern and central NM. However, a backdoor cold front has oozed into northeast NM and has pressed southward as far as KTCC. Northeasterly winds with gusts near 25kt can be expected behind the front through sunset. Otherwise, virga showers and light rain showers will continue to shift eastward across the area. These showers will be capable of gusty and erratic winds with gusts up to 45kt through the evening. An approaching shortwave trough will allow showers to become somewhat heavier (or at least, there will be better chances of the precip reaching the ground) and more widespread across northwest and north central NM Wednesday morning. Showers will linger across north central NM through mid afternoon Wednesday before diminishing. Snow will be favored above 9kft and mtn obscurations are likely. Additionally, strong westerly winds will develop late Wednesday morning through the aftn. Gusts between 25 and 35kt will be common west of the Central Mountain Chain, while gusts up to 45kt will be common across eastern NM. Localized areas of BLDU will limit visibility.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

With sunset this evening the gusty virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms currently occurring along and west of the central mountain chain will transition to wetter variety precip. There is a good chance for strong winds east of the central mountain chain late on Wednesday afternoon, but humidities should only bottom out around 18-28 percent. Humidities will bottom out around 10 percent across the east on Thursday, and across most central and western locations as well on Friday, when breezy to windy conditions will redevelop with more significant fire weather concerns mainly across the east. There will be a risk of isolated to widely scattered and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms Sunday and Monday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 46 61 38 69 / 90 90 20 0 Dulce........................... 33 55 27 64 / 90 100 30 10 Cuba............................ 41 56 32 66 / 70 90 30 0 Gallup.......................... 34 59 29 67 / 60 90 5 0 El Morro........................ 39 55 31 65 / 50 90 5 0 Grants.......................... 39 60 31 70 / 50 80 5 0 Quemado......................... 44 58 31 70 / 30 70 0 0 Magdalena....................... 50 62 37 72 / 10 50 0 0 Datil........................... 44 58 32 68 / 20 50 0 0 Reserve......................... 41 63 28 72 / 30 70 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 67 34 76 / 20 70 0 0 Chama........................... 32 47 27 56 / 90 100 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 47 55 39 65 / 60 100 30 0 Pecos........................... 42 57 34 66 / 40 90 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 51 34 61 / 50 90 30 0 Red River....................... 36 42 29 50 / 50 90 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 28 51 23 58 / 50 90 40 5 Taos............................ 39 57 30 66 / 50 90 30 0 Mora............................ 41 57 34 65 / 40 80 30 0 Espanola........................ 46 62 36 74 / 60 100 30 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 57 37 67 / 50 90 30 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 60 36 70 / 50 90 30 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 65 44 74 / 40 90 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 67 40 78 / 40 80 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 70 40 80 / 40 70 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 68 42 77 / 40 80 10 0 Belen........................... 51 70 37 80 / 30 70 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 68 42 78 / 50 90 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 69 36 80 / 30 70 10 0 Corrales........................ 54 69 42 79 / 40 80 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 69 39 80 / 30 70 10 0 Placitas........................ 53 62 44 73 / 50 90 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 68 42 77 / 40 80 10 0 Socorro......................... 55 73 41 82 / 10 50 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 59 39 69 / 40 90 20 0 Tijeras......................... 49 60 39 70 / 40 90 20 0 Edgewood........................ 47 62 37 71 / 40 90 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 65 32 73 / 30 80 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 61 36 68 / 20 70 20 0 Mountainair..................... 46 63 36 71 / 20 70 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 64 37 71 / 20 70 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 68 40 72 / 10 50 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 62 39 67 / 5 50 20 0 Capulin......................... 41 62 33 68 / 10 30 10 0 Raton........................... 41 65 33 70 / 10 40 10 0 Springer........................ 43 67 35 72 / 10 50 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 44 62 36 69 / 20 70 20 0 Clayton......................... 44 72 41 76 / 5 30 5 0 Roy............................. 46 67 38 73 / 10 40 10 0 Conchas......................... 49 76 43 81 / 5 40 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 72 43 76 / 5 40 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 48 78 45 82 / 5 40 10 0 Clovis.......................... 51 81 47 82 / 0 30 20 0 Portales........................ 49 83 46 82 / 0 30 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 49 78 43 82 / 5 30 10 0 Roswell......................... 54 81 45 85 / 0 20 10 0 Picacho......................... 52 75 42 79 / 5 30 10 0 Elk............................. 48 73 39 78 / 0 30 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.