textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

- Widespread rain will impact areas along and east of the central mountain chain today with more sparse shower and thunderstorm activity in western areas this afternoon.

- Winter travel conditions will impact the high northern mountains tonight through tonight.

- Gusty east winds up 50 mph will continue below canyons into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys through the early morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

A low from the eastern Pacific has crossed the Baja, and is now moving toward the bootheel of NM as an open shortwave trough while the polar jet feeds another broader trough closer to the Four Corners. These features in combination with the cool, moist airmass that is seeping into NM from the east will keep high precipitation chances in the forecast today. Northeastern areas will continue to see precipitation through the early morning with a secondary area developing in southeastern areas, and these areas will be merging and filling in with light stratiform batches between 3 AM and dawn. Elevations between 7,000 to 8,000 feet will observe a morning and overnight mix of rain and snow with elevations above trending more toward snow. Snow will favor the northern mountains with the Sangre de Cristos being the primary range for accumulations through the morning. However, the Tusas should start to stack up a few inches this afternoon with convective showers dropping brief isolated heavy rates. This is prompting the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory there. The rain in the eastern half is projected to turn lighter with less areal coverage this afternoon, but destabilization in western zones will exploit the recently found low level moisture, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along a north- south axis over the Continental Divide. Rainfall in the western zones will be spotty with small footprints, but a few heavier showers or storms could produce a quick tenth or two of an inch. This convection will carry on through the evening, slowly diminishing near or shortly after midnight over most western zones.

Saturday's upper level pattern turns messy, as the Four Corners trough will have been absorbed into NM as a weak low circulation while a broader ridge starts to build into the greater southwest and southern Rockies states. Meager, but sufficient moisture and instability will be present to spark scattered weak showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the higher terrain of western and central NM. Temperatures will make considerable gains with most areas observing southerly surface winds, especially in eastern zones which will get insolation again. However, all areas will still be cooler than normal by 5 to 15 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

The flow aloft will turn a bit more westerly into Sunday as the ridge over the southern Rockies flattens and another upstream low approaches the CA coast. Dewpoints will stay in the 20's and 30's (deg F) on Sunday, similar to Saturday, and low instability with LI's of -1 to-2 C will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again, albeit with less spatial coverage. Showers and storms would tend to initialize over the western and central high terrain again, but the spatial extent creeping northward from Saturday. A lee-side surface trough will develop in eastern CO, and this will kick up southwesterly breezes Sunday afternoon (gusts mostly at 20 to 25 mph).

Into Monday, the low will move into CA with stronger westerlies aloft over NM while the lee-side cyclone settles into western OK. This would lead to an increase in breezy to windy conditions, but high subtropical moisture will lead to lots of cirrus overhead, and this could pose vertical boundary layer mixing limitations. In addition to the breezy to windy conditions, dewpoints are projected to lower considerably in western zones Monday afternoon.

The low would then trek over the lower CO river basin on Tuesday, spreading some diffluence aloft and scattered areas of precip into southwestern NM while northeastern zones potentially get grazed by a clipper system from the north. This would keep breezy to windy conditions focused over the southern half of NM Tuesday. Pieces of energy from the CA low would then move farther east over NM into Wednesday, but there have been model indications of additional pressure falls occurring upstream to the west of NM, and this is keeping uncertainty in the POP forecast for Wednesday and more-so for Thursday. Ensemble means and ensemble clusters all have indications of these pressure falls to the west of NM Wednesday and Thursday. For now model/ensemble solutions are statistically favoring the northern zones for showers and storms on Wednesday, shifting to central to eastern zones on Thursday with overall low probabilities on both days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A pair of upper level disturbances are approaching New Mexico from the southwest and northwest while cool, moist moves over the eastern half of the state. This will continue to lead to rain and high elevation snow tonight into Friday morning, especially along and east of the central mountain chain. Snow will mix with rain at elevations between 7,000 to 8,000 feet, turning more consistently snow above. Widespread MVFR ceilings (below 3,000 ft) and visibility (below 5 SM) will be common in the eastern half of New Mexico with scattered areas of IFR ceilings (below 1,000 ft) and visibility (below 3 SM). Areas observing snow will be more prone to IFR conditions. Rain will gradually thin into Friday afternoon over the east, but ceilings and visibility will be slow to lift until late afternoon or early evening. Western areas will start to see shower and thunderstorm development Friday afternoon with lightning, brief isolated downpours, small hail, and gusty outflow winds accompanying.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Cool, moist conditions will continue over the eastern half of NM today with widespread rain unfolding while wet snow accumulates in the northern mountains. This will eliminate fire weather concerns in the eastern zones for the next couple of days. Precipitation will start to decrease this afternoon, and more-so into the evening in eastern zones, but western zones will observe scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with small areas of wetting rain.

Isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will redevelop over the high terrain of western and central NM on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal Saturday, inching up a few more degrees Sunday with minimum humidity staying in a 20-35% range each afternoon. Light winds on Saturday will start to turn more breezy on Sunday, but no critical fire weather threat is foreseen.

Winds increase from the southwest on Monday due to an upstream CA low pressure system. Both winds and RH will be on the marginal side, not quite reaching thresholds for widespread fire weather concerns, and there are also concerns about inefficient vertical mixing that may stunt wind gust potential. On Tuesday, winds appear be strongest in the southern half of NM as the low approaches closer, and again this will likely pose marginal fire weather concerns, mainly for central NM (southern portions of the forecast area). Low precipitation chances will exist on both Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday winds look to reduce with northern zones being the most likely recipients of light precipitation amounts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 70 41 70 44 / 10 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 61 27 66 28 / 60 50 20 5 Cuba............................ 59 31 62 35 / 50 40 30 10 Gallup.......................... 66 31 67 35 / 20 20 20 5 El Morro........................ 62 35 61 38 / 40 40 30 10 Grants.......................... 62 33 64 35 / 50 30 30 10 Quemado......................... 64 37 64 39 / 30 20 50 10 Magdalena....................... 56 38 60 43 / 50 50 40 20 Datil........................... 58 37 59 40 / 60 60 60 20 Reserve......................... 71 37 68 37 / 30 40 40 5 Glenwood........................ 76 39 73 41 / 20 30 30 5 Chama........................... 54 25 58 28 / 80 70 40 5 Los Alamos...................... 52 36 59 41 / 80 50 40 10 Pecos........................... 48 29 60 33 / 70 50 50 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 28 58 34 / 80 70 40 5 Red River....................... 41 21 48 28 / 80 70 40 5 Angel Fire...................... 45 17 52 22 / 80 70 40 10 Taos............................ 55 27 60 29 / 80 70 40 10 Mora............................ 43 25 57 30 / 90 60 40 10 Espanola........................ 61 36 67 38 / 70 50 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 52 34 59 39 / 60 50 50 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 33 62 38 / 60 40 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 41 64 47 / 50 30 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 40 66 44 / 40 30 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 39 67 43 / 40 30 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 41 68 46 / 40 30 30 10 Belen........................... 63 38 69 40 / 40 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 61 39 68 44 / 40 30 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 61 36 68 39 / 40 30 30 10 Corrales........................ 61 39 69 44 / 40 30 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 62 38 68 41 / 40 30 30 10 Placitas........................ 56 40 63 45 / 50 30 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 61 40 69 45 / 40 30 30 10 Socorro......................... 64 43 67 44 / 50 40 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 35 61 41 / 60 30 40 20 Tijeras......................... 52 36 62 41 / 60 30 40 20 Edgewood........................ 49 32 62 35 / 70 30 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 29 63 30 / 70 30 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 43 31 58 36 / 80 30 30 10 Mountainair..................... 49 33 62 36 / 70 30 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 48 33 60 37 / 80 30 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 53 40 62 43 / 90 30 30 10 Ruidoso......................... 46 34 56 37 / 100 30 40 5 Capulin......................... 45 26 58 31 / 90 30 10 0 Raton........................... 50 25 63 29 / 80 30 20 0 Springer........................ 49 28 64 30 / 90 40 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 29 59 33 / 90 40 30 5 Clayton......................... 54 35 68 43 / 100 20 10 0 Roy............................. 47 31 62 36 / 100 30 10 0 Conchas......................... 52 34 68 39 / 100 30 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 48 34 64 37 / 90 20 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 54 36 71 43 / 90 20 10 0 Clovis.......................... 52 38 67 43 / 90 30 10 0 Portales........................ 54 38 68 41 / 90 30 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 36 67 38 / 100 20 10 0 Roswell......................... 54 43 66 43 / 100 30 10 0 Picacho......................... 51 38 62 38 / 100 30 20 5 Elk............................. 50 34 59 35 / 100 50 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for NMZ210.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ213>215.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227.