textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Minor risk of burn scar flash flooding today and Thursday.

- Scattered showers and storms today and Thursday may produce gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain along and east of the central mountain chain.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas by the weekend as temperatures warm to the hottest levels so far this season. Major heat risk is possible for the southeast plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Yesterday's Low has exited to the east and heights are gradually rising over New Mexico in its wake. Water vapor imagery shows drier air pushing in from the west which will translate to a downtick in convective activity today. Storms will initiate over the central mountain chain then get carried off to the southeast, decaying as they move into the lower elevations. While it cannot be ruled out, the burn scar flash flood risk will be lower than previous days due to a lower coverage of storms and less efficient rainfall rates. The HREF mean is showing 0.2" or less over both burn scars, but the 90th percentile does hint at the potential for nearly 1" over the HPCC scar. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern for most and these could impact any areas. Diurnally driven storms will rapidly decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating.

Precipitation chances have trended up slightly for Thursday thanks to a shortwave that will graze northeastern NM. The added shear will help to keep updrafts going as they move off the Sangre de Cristo mountains into adjacent highlands. Bulk shear is borderline (~25kts) for the development of severe storms, but would not be surprised if a Marginal Risk is introduced to the northeast plains for Thursday afternoon. The added forcing also slightly elevates the threat of flash flooding over the HPCC burn scar, but HREF max is still only showing localized amounts of 0.75-1" so the risk remains low to moderate. Drier air moving in from the west will significantly limit the coverage of showers/storms over the Cont. Divide and Rio Grande Valley, with only isolated high-based gusty showers and storms expected. The warming trend continues tomorrow, with highs rising to a few degrees above normal in most areas, except near average in the eastern plains thanks to increased cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Showers and storms over northeast and east-central NM late Thursday will dissipate thru the evening with remnant mid level cloud cover thru sunrise Friday. Another crop of showers and storms will form over the central mt chain Friday afternoon then move south and east into nearby highlands thru sunset. Coverage is likely to be less with smaller footprints of rainfall and a greater chance for gusty outflow winds.

A 591dm H5 high centered over Sonora Friday will build northeast into southwest NM Saturday and Sunday. Low level moisture will remain in place over far eastern NM with a couple popcorn storms possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM. Very dry air advecting into western NM will force dewpoints into the teens and perhaps upper single digits. Max temps will warm to the hottest levels so far this year for much of the area. Most MOS guidance keeps max temps below 100F at KABQ however probabilities on the latest NBM continue to show very high chances (>80%). A couple deterministic model solutions are also showing higher chances for storms to impact the Ruidoso area Sunday. This trend will be monitored closely given the threat for burn scar flooding.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases Monday and Tuesday as an H5 low and associated 75-85kt speed max attempts to move from SoCal into AZ and NM. The H5 high may be squashed well southward into northern MX while very dry air on southwest breezes spreads into NM. Temps will remain hot Monday but may cool several degrees by Tuesday. The latest GFS continues to advertise a slower, deeper H5 low approaching from SoCal, allowing greater moisture to surge northward into NM. This pattern would allow for increasing storm coverage over the region Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Just a few showers remain in central NM tonight and these should dissipate within the next couple of hours. Clouds will gradually clear through the night, with light winds prevailing areawide. There is a low chance that fog develops in far eastern NM near the TX border, however the likelihood is less than 20% so none was included within the forecast. Scattered showers will develop over the high terrain around 18Z tomorrow, moving southeastward through the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern with any showers and storms due to the high based nature of the convection.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow afternoon/evening will focus over the central mountain chain. A drying/warming trend is expected late week, with only isolated storms confined eastern NM. An elongated ridge over Mexico will nudge northward over the weekend, bringing the hottest temps of the season and therefore increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses. Very low humidities are expected during this stretch as well thanks to very deep afternoon mixing underneath the high pressure. A southwest to westerly breeze in western NM will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions early next week, but there is a low chance (~15%) that this becomes critical fire weather conditions if a potent late season trough approaches the area from the west as shown by a few ENS and GEPS members.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 91 58 91 56 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 45 86 43 / 20 10 10 0 Cuba............................ 83 53 85 53 / 20 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 88 49 88 49 / 20 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 83 51 84 52 / 30 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 86 51 88 51 / 30 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 86 54 86 53 / 20 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 84 59 88 59 / 40 20 20 10 Datil........................... 83 56 86 55 / 50 20 20 5 Reserve......................... 90 49 91 49 / 20 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 94 56 96 54 / 20 10 0 0 Chama........................... 77 46 79 46 / 30 20 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 57 82 58 / 30 10 20 0 Pecos........................... 80 54 83 54 / 30 20 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 51 79 49 / 30 20 40 5 Red River....................... 68 43 70 43 / 40 20 50 5 Angel Fire...................... 73 38 75 37 / 40 20 50 5 Taos............................ 82 46 83 46 / 30 20 30 5 Mora............................ 77 48 80 48 / 50 20 50 5 Espanola........................ 87 55 90 55 / 30 10 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 82 56 84 57 / 30 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 56 87 56 / 20 20 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 65 92 65 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 62 93 63 / 10 20 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 61 95 61 / 10 20 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 63 94 63 / 10 20 5 5 Belen........................... 93 59 96 59 / 20 20 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 92 61 95 61 / 10 20 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 92 58 95 58 / 10 20 5 5 Corrales........................ 93 61 95 62 / 10 20 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 92 60 96 59 / 10 20 5 5 Placitas........................ 88 62 91 62 / 10 20 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 91 62 95 62 / 10 20 5 5 Socorro......................... 94 65 97 65 / 30 30 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 56 86 57 / 10 20 10 5 Tijeras......................... 85 59 88 58 / 10 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 85 53 88 54 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 49 89 50 / 20 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 80 54 84 54 / 20 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 84 54 88 56 / 20 30 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 83 54 89 56 / 30 30 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 87 60 91 62 / 40 30 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 78 56 83 59 / 40 30 40 20 Capulin......................... 78 51 82 51 / 30 20 30 20 Raton........................... 83 50 85 50 / 40 20 40 10 Springer........................ 83 50 87 50 / 40 20 40 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 51 83 51 / 40 20 40 10 Clayton......................... 84 57 87 58 / 10 20 10 10 Roy............................. 81 54 84 54 / 30 20 20 10 Conchas......................... 87 60 92 60 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 85 58 90 58 / 20 30 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 86 59 91 60 / 5 20 10 20 Clovis.......................... 84 61 90 62 / 5 20 5 20 Portales........................ 85 60 91 62 / 5 10 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 87 60 93 60 / 10 20 20 20 Roswell......................... 90 66 97 66 / 10 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 85 59 91 60 / 30 20 30 10 Elk............................. 83 56 88 58 / 30 20 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.