textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Tuesday. - There is a moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The latest water vapor imagery shows upper level dry air spreading into more of northern NM as an H5 high consolidates over northern CO. The upper level low that was positioned near the Permian Basin the past several days has drifted west toward Guadalupe Pass and will continue tracking west-southwest thru Monday. The 18Z KABQ PWAT was 0.97" and east/northeast steering flow has trended up to between 15 and 25KT. There has been little change in the forecast thru Monday. The main focus for storms with locally heavy rainfall will be south and west of the ABQ metro, especially the southern and southwest high terrain. REFS/HREF 24-hr LPMM and NBM 90th percentile QPF shows most of the rainfall footprints >1" in the Gila region with 0.50" to 1" values mainly south and west of ABQ. Stronger steering flow will help to limit storm residence time outside of any training cells thru Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

There are noteworthy changes in model trends Tuesday and Wednesday with respect to how the upper level wave drifting west over southern NM is absorbed into the main monsoon plume. The NAM takes the mid and upper level circulation northwest across the Gila region into east-central AZ Tuesday and Wednesday while other guidance shows a farther westward progression Tuesday before lifting it north across central AZ Wednesday. These differences will have large implications on storm coverage and potential for heavy rainfall over central and western NM. The NBM is trending toward a larger area of rainfall footprints >1" in the Gila region with footprints across central and western NM near 0.5" both days. Steering flow will also become more southeast to northwest Tuesday then south to north Wednesday. This will be favorable in a few areas that have missed out on storms over the past several days. For eastern NM, Wednesday will trend hotter as a 598dm H5 high builds over west TX. Broad subsidence and drier air aloft with H5 Td depressions near 25C will choke storm development for eastern NM. The high will extend west into central NM Thursday and significantly limit storm coverage in most areas. Max temps will rise into the low 100s for eastern NM both days with upper 90s in the ABQ metro.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over western areas until around 4 AM Monday morning. Monday afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over western parts of the forecast area and the south central mountains, with spottier activity farther north along the central mountain chain and central valley. Storms will generally move toward the west around 15-25 KT on Monday. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 45 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

There is no critical fire weather for at least the next two weeks. Patchy dry fuels may still lead to new fire starts from lightning strikes. The highest storm chances will focus along and west of the central mt chain thru Tuesday, especially west of the Cont Divide. Steering flow will be northeast to southwest today, east to west Sunday and Monday, southeast to northwest Tuesday, then south to north Wednesday. Small footprints with rainfall amounts of 1-2" will occur with direct hits. A more traditional monsoon pattern is likely to begin late this week with high pressure forming over NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 64 96 66 95 / 10 5 30 30 Dulce........................... 53 94 54 93 / 10 10 20 30 Cuba............................ 58 88 59 87 / 20 30 30 50 Gallup.......................... 56 89 58 87 / 30 40 60 60 El Morro........................ 56 82 56 82 / 20 70 50 50 Grants.......................... 57 88 57 87 / 20 50 40 40 Quemado......................... 56 82 57 81 / 50 80 60 70 Magdalena....................... 61 85 62 83 / 10 30 20 50 Datil........................... 56 82 57 79 / 30 60 40 60 Reserve......................... 55 87 55 85 / 30 80 50 90 Glenwood........................ 58 89 56 88 / 40 90 50 80 Chama........................... 51 87 53 86 / 10 10 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 63 87 64 86 / 10 5 10 40 Pecos........................... 56 87 56 87 / 5 10 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 87 56 86 / 5 10 5 10 Red River....................... 47 79 48 77 / 0 10 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 42 83 43 81 / 0 10 5 20 Taos............................ 55 90 56 90 / 5 10 5 20 Mora............................ 53 85 54 83 / 10 10 5 20 Espanola........................ 63 95 65 94 / 10 5 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 88 62 88 / 10 20 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 91 61 91 / 10 10 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 91 66 92 / 10 20 10 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 93 69 93 / 10 20 10 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 94 66 94 / 10 20 10 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 93 68 93 / 10 20 10 40 Belen........................... 64 94 65 93 / 5 20 10 40 Bernalillo...................... 66 95 67 94 / 10 10 10 30 Bosque Farms.................... 63 93 63 92 / 5 20 10 40 Corrales........................ 66 95 67 94 / 10 20 10 40 Los Lunas....................... 63 93 64 92 / 5 20 10 40 Placitas........................ 65 90 67 91 / 10 20 10 30 Rio Rancho...................... 67 94 68 93 / 10 20 10 40 Socorro......................... 67 94 68 93 / 10 20 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 87 61 86 / 5 30 10 30 Tijeras......................... 61 88 61 87 / 5 30 10 30 Edgewood........................ 59 88 58 88 / 5 30 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 90 55 89 / 5 20 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 57 85 57 85 / 5 10 5 30 Mountainair..................... 58 87 58 86 / 10 40 10 50 Gran Quivira.................... 58 85 58 84 / 10 50 10 40 Carrizozo....................... 62 85 63 84 / 20 60 20 70 Ruidoso......................... 57 78 57 80 / 20 70 20 70 Capulin......................... 56 89 57 87 / 0 10 5 5 Raton........................... 56 94 57 92 / 5 10 5 10 Springer........................ 57 93 58 93 / 0 5 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 56 87 58 88 / 5 5 5 10 Clayton......................... 65 96 66 97 / 0 0 5 5 Roy............................. 61 90 62 90 / 5 0 5 0 Conchas......................... 66 96 66 97 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 63 91 64 91 / 5 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 65 97 67 99 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 64 92 66 95 / 10 0 5 5 Portales........................ 65 93 66 96 / 10 10 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 65 93 66 95 / 5 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 70 94 69 98 / 20 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 63 87 63 89 / 20 30 10 30 Elk............................. 59 82 59 85 / 20 60 20 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.