textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1020 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions due to gusty winds and low humidity will increase the risk of rapid fire spread Monday afternoon across east central New Mexico.

- Despite a cold front on Tuesday across eastern New Mexico, above normal temperatures remain in store through at least Thursday areawide.

- A pattern change to cooler, windy, and unsettled conditions is in store for late week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1240 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Quiet and warm conditions will persist through the rest of today with high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above normal areawide. Another night of excellent radiational cooling will allow temps in valley locations to plummet, though generally speaking, low temps will be above normal as well.

The upper low west of the Baja will continue to slide very slowly southward through Monday, thereby not having any impact on NM weather. However, a weak perturbation in westerly flow will allow 700mb wind speeds to increase to around 30kt across east central NM. Though mixing heights won't be quite that high, some momentum aloft will mix to the surface allowing surface wind speeds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph along a corridor from KLVS to KCQC eastward to the Texas border. The downsloping component to the winds will allow temperatures to climb around 20 degrees above normal across the plains (and high temps elsewhere will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal). Very low RH will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions across east central NM. More on this below.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1240 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

The upper low will finally begin to pivot eastward Monday night into Tuesday morning, then will shift northeastward toward southwest Texas Tuesday afternoon and night. As the low shifts northeastward, moisture will move into south central and southeast NM Tuesday afternoon and evening, though models differ regarding how much moisture. The NAM is the most bullish, but is also quite the outlier when compared to other models. Meanwhile at the surface, a backdoor front will slide down the plains early Tuesday and should weakly push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain by mid day. A few breezes can be expected along and behind the front. Where the front meets the moisture moving up from the south will be where the best chances of precipitation exist. If the front pushes farther south faster than currently projected, then weak isentropic lift could also aid in precip production. Thus, low grade PoPs for rain remain in the forecast for southern/southeastern areas.

On Wednesday, weak ridging will build over west Texas in the wake of the departing system. This will mean increasing west to southwest flow over NM. Models indicate Pacific moisture will track from SoCal northeastward over NW NM. Weak perturbations in the flow may allow light precipitation to squeeze out over NW NM Wed and Wed night. Again, the NAM is the most bullish on this aspect, but most models are only suggesting a few hundredths at most. Meanwhile, a deepening lee side trough will increase breeziness across eastern NM. On Thursday, the Pacific tap of moisture doesn't appear to be as robust, but additional perturbations within the west-southwest flow aloft could result in more light precipitation across western NM. Confidence is low regarding measurable precipitation.

The next storm system still looks like it will impact NM on Friday and Friday night, but there are still discrepancies between deterministic models regarding another backdoor cold front. The EC and CMC push a stronger front much further westward, while the GFS hangs up the front across northeast NM. This looks to be a quick-hitting storm system, thus not much residence time for rain and snow to take place. However, snow levels look to fall to around 7000-7500 feet, so a few inches of snow over the higher terrain is not out of the question. By Saturday afternoon, ridging will already be building over the area with seasonable temps forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs. Southwest winds will strengthen over eastern NM Monday with gusts of 25 to 30kt common along the I-40 corridor and near the TX/NM border. Mid and high level clouds will increase northward into southeast NM thru Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1240 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Monday afternoon across east central and northeast NM. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely from Las Vegas and Clines Corners eastward to Tucumcari, Clovis and the TX border. Westerly winds will increase between 20 and 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph while daytime RH values fall below 15 percent. A few hours of single digit RH is also likely. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for eastern NM.

On Tuesday, a backdoor cold front will push through the eastern plains early, then weakly through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain by mid day. Moisture moving up from the south may bring light precipitation to the lower Rio Grande Valley and East Central Plains. Wetting precipitation is unlikely. Warm, mostly dry conditions and a few breezes will be the rule for Wed and Thurs. Light showers may impact northwest NM each day. Better chances for precipitation will be on Friday as another storm system impacts NM. Light precipitation amounts look to be favored, though falling over much of the area. Snow will be favored above 7000-7500 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 28 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 19 61 20 62 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 26 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 16 63 20 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 26 62 29 60 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 20 66 23 63 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 27 65 29 62 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 35 65 38 60 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 29 63 31 59 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 25 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 28 72 32 70 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 22 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 34 60 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 29 61 32 57 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 30 57 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 19 54 19 50 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 16 56 16 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 22 61 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 28 65 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 24 66 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 62 31 59 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 64 40 62 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 68 33 66 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 26 68 30 65 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 33 67 35 65 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 26 67 31 66 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 32 68 34 66 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 28 67 32 65 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 36 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 32 67 35 65 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 33 71 37 67 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 60 36 56 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 32 63 33 58 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 27 65 30 59 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 65 26 61 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 29 61 33 55 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 30 64 34 60 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 31 64 36 61 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 35 66 42 63 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 35 62 42 56 / 0 0 0 30 Capulin......................... 28 67 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 24 69 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 22 72 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 27 68 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 38 73 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 28 70 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 29 78 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 34 72 39 59 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 31 78 36 60 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 36 75 42 62 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 35 75 42 63 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 30 76 38 62 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 37 73 42 63 / 0 0 0 30 Picacho......................... 36 74 42 62 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 34 73 41 62 / 0 0 0 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for NMZ104-123-125-126.