textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on Friday across northeast NM.

- Hotter temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A 594dm H5 high center will consolidate near the Four Corners today with a theta-e ridge axis and near-normal PWAT airmass draped from south/southwest to north/northeast across NM. Strong heating in a moist, unstable airmass with weak steering flow will help storms to develop over the high terrain by late morning. Storms will then move erratically south and west into nearby highlands and valleys on strong convective outflows thru the early evening. DCAPE is still averaging 500-1000 J/kg with the relatively dry low level airmass so boundaries may produce gusts >40 mph. Small footprints with rainfall amounts >1" are possible based on 6-hr high-res ensemble LPMM precip and NBM 90th percentile QPF.

The Four Corners high will elongate westward while building to near 596dm off the SoCal coast Wednesday. The higher PWAT airmass and theta-e ridge axis will stretch from southwest to northeast across central NM. There are high chances for storms to form over the high terrain by late morning but steering flow will instead guide storms erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys, including more of northeast and east-central NM. QPF values may exceed 1" from stronger cells along with gusty outflow boundaries.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

By Thursday and Friday, drier mid and upper level flow will spread across the northwest half of NM while a weak shortwave trough and associated 40-50kt speed max moves thru CO. A downtick in storm coverage is likely, except across the southern high terrain and northeast plains. The storms in northeast NM may become organized Thursday and Friday with support from the speed max focused over southern CO. Max temps will be hotter with most lower elevations in the mid 90s to low 100s. Heat Advisories may be needed. There is a >75% chance of reaching 100F in the middle RGV and eastern plains of NM, except Roswell where there is a 20-40% of reaching 105F.

Beginning Saturday, an anomalously high amplitude wave pattern will begin developing across North America. A 100-120kt speed max over the Aleutians will round a 599dm H5 high over the north Pacific and help to carve out a high amplitude trough off the west coast. This trough will kick the H5 high from the southwest CONUS into the Great Plains Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a large area of enhanced tropical convection over the eastern equatorial Pacific will assist building the Great Plains high into a massive +3 standard deviation H5 ridge (~598dm) over the central U.S. thru the middle of next week. This pattern may help to open the door to abundant moisture across the southern Rockies next week. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with how this complex pattern will evolve. However, chances are trending higher for storms with locally heavy rainfall next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

SHRA/TS will develop over the higher terrain between 11am and 1pm then move erratically into nearby highlands and valleys on outflow boundaries thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of outflow wind gusts near 35KT, brief moderate to heavy rain, patchy BLDU, and frequent lightning strikes. Showers may persist into the late evening within the RGV from near KSAF to KABQ and KONM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for at least the next 7 days. Storms with small footprints of heavy rain will occur today and Wednesday around the high terrain and nearby highlands of central NM. Storm motion today will be slow and erratic to the south and west then slow and erratic to the south and east Wednesday. Storms across western NM will be drier with strong outflow winds and little rainfall. Much drier and hotter weather will spread to more of NM Thursday and Friday, except northeast NM where storms are still expected. Slightly breezy northwest winds over northwest NM each day may produce a few hours with marginally critical fire weather. Moisture may surge back into central and eastern NM Saturday with increasing coverage of storms with wetting rainfall along and east of the central mountain chain. Storm chances are trending higher for next week as even deeper moisture attempts to spread northwest into more of NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 97 65 98 63 / 0 5 0 5 Dulce........................... 92 50 94 49 / 20 20 10 5 Cuba............................ 91 57 92 58 / 20 30 5 20 Gallup.......................... 92 56 93 57 / 20 10 20 5 El Morro........................ 86 57 87 57 / 40 10 40 5 Grants.......................... 90 56 92 57 / 40 10 40 5 Quemado......................... 88 59 89 59 / 50 20 30 30 Magdalena....................... 87 64 89 64 / 30 30 40 10 Datil........................... 85 59 86 60 / 60 20 60 10 Reserve......................... 92 54 94 54 / 60 30 40 20 Glenwood........................ 96 58 98 58 / 60 20 50 10 Chama........................... 84 48 86 48 / 40 10 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 85 62 87 63 / 40 30 40 20 Pecos........................... 88 55 91 56 / 40 20 50 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 55 87 55 / 40 30 20 10 Red River....................... 75 47 77 48 / 50 40 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 81 43 82 42 / 60 30 60 20 Taos............................ 88 53 89 52 / 30 20 20 10 Mora............................ 83 53 86 54 / 50 30 50 10 Espanola........................ 94 60 96 61 / 30 20 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 88 61 90 62 / 30 20 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 58 93 59 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 66 98 66 / 20 30 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 65 97 66 / 10 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 63 99 65 / 10 30 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 66 98 67 / 10 30 10 20 Belen........................... 98 63 99 64 / 5 30 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 97 65 99 66 / 10 30 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 96 61 98 62 / 10 20 5 10 Corrales........................ 97 65 99 66 / 10 30 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 96 62 98 64 / 10 20 5 10 Placitas........................ 92 66 94 67 / 20 30 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 96 66 98 67 / 10 20 10 20 Socorro......................... 99 70 101 71 / 5 20 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 61 91 62 / 30 30 20 20 Tijeras......................... 90 61 92 62 / 30 30 10 20 Edgewood........................ 89 58 92 59 / 30 30 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 54 94 54 / 30 30 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 86 57 89 57 / 30 30 20 30 Mountainair..................... 90 59 92 60 / 20 30 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 88 60 90 61 / 10 30 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 91 65 93 67 / 20 5 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 85 59 86 61 / 20 5 30 20 Capulin......................... 86 56 88 54 / 20 10 40 20 Raton........................... 91 53 93 53 / 20 20 40 20 Springer........................ 92 55 93 55 / 20 20 30 5 Las Vegas....................... 87 56 89 56 / 40 20 40 10 Clayton......................... 94 64 97 63 / 0 10 20 20 Roy............................. 89 61 92 60 / 5 10 40 10 Conchas......................... 97 66 100 66 / 0 10 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 93 64 96 64 / 0 10 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 98 69 99 69 / 0 0 10 20 Clovis.......................... 94 67 96 68 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 97 68 98 69 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 96 68 98 68 / 0 0 5 10 Roswell......................... 98 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 93 64 94 65 / 0 0 10 10 Elk............................. 88 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.