textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026 - Thunderstorm activity will favor northeast and east central New Mexico through this evening. A few strong to severe storms are expected.

- Rapid fire spread will be possible Saturday afternoon from incredibly dry conditions and strengthening westerly winds through the northwestern quadrant of NM.

- A moderate heat risk remains for all lower elevation locales this weekend where highs will flirt with 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Afternoon thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the central mountain chain, and are forecast to continue to do so through the afternoon hours before moving off into the eastern plains. Most storms south of US-60 should exhibit slow storm motions, while storms to the north will have more noticable east to southeast motions to them. Most storms will be capable of producing a few tenths of an inch of rain, which should not provide much in the way of a flash flood risk unless storms regenerate over the same area or fall on sensitive areas such as burn scars. The storms moving off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will encounter a more sheared environment (~20-30kts of 0-6km bulk shear), which may help develop an isolated strong to severe storm this afternoon and evening. SPC has maintained a Marginal (1/5) Risk for this area, which aligns with our local thinking. Outside of eastern NM, a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm may develop across the western high terrain, which would likely produce outflow boundaries that cause erratic gusty winds throughout much of the Rio Grande Valley this evening. Thunderstorm and outflow activity should decrease through the evening hours before tapering off by midnight.

The state continues to be divided into a moist east and dry west moving into Saturday. Upper level flow becomes more zonal with tightening pressure gradients indicating stronger winds aloft. At the surface, very dry air (humidity values in the single digits) will advance into much of western NM, continuing the hot and dry trend. In eastern NM, this dry air will begin to advance eastward, setting up a dryline across the plains. There continues to be model disagreement as to whether thunderstorms can actually get going across this dryline. The better upper level diffluence remains over CO, so the most likely scenario is that we see 1 to 2 storms develop across the eastern plains in the afternoon. Have increased PoPs to 10% across much of the area of the dryline to account for this low confidence scenario. Returning to CO, the upper level westerlies sets up the development of a surface low in southeast CO, stretching into northeast NM. As a result, surface winds will increase across the area, with south to southwest wind gusts around 30-35mph likely. As also mentioned before, this is the corridor with better upper level diffluence, so storm development is more favored just north of the state border. There is a slight chance that a developing cluster of storms clips Union County in the afternoon hours. SPC has maintained another Marginal (1/5) Risk for far northeast Union County as there is better shear (~30-40kts), though the confidence is not very high that we will see a storm in the area.

For Saturday's temperatures. we look to remain in the high 90s to low 100s for lower elevations, with up to the high 80s for our higher elevation areas. Heat risk looks to remain at a moderate for much of eastern NM and the Rio Grande Valley. Folks should continue to stay hydrated and take breaks if outside for an extended period of time.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The dry air looks to win out in its battle against the moisture on Sunday, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the single digits for just about every location in our forecast area. In fact, a vast majority of the area will see between 12-20 hours of single digit humidity! Suffice to say, it will be quite dry on Sunday. In turn, the heat risk also increases as temperatures continue to rise. The Rio Grande Valley remains in the high 90s to low 100s, and the eastern plains rise into the low to mid 100s. Moderate to locally major heat risk is likely to be seen across our lower elevation areas. A Heat Advisory or two may need to be considered for some of our southeast areas.

A backdoor front looks to enter northeast NM Sunday night, replenishing moisture to the area. There is a low chance that a few showers could develop as it pushes through, along with a few wind gusts near or above 40mph. As that settles against the central mountain chain through the day on Monday, east to southeast upslope flow should allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the afternoon. Strengthening upper level flow looks to increase the shear across the area, so a few storms have the chance to turn strong to severe.

Our first rendition of the Monsoon high looks to build into southwest NM through the early to middle part of next week. With moisture remaining in eastern NM, daily thunderstorm chances on the high terrain looks like the most likely solution, with these storms moving off into the east. Shear values each day appear sufficient enough for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Across northwest and western NM, the westerly flow around the northern periphery of the high may bring about a few drier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm through the middle part of the week. The hottest temperatures of next week are expected in our southern and southwest areas as they are forecast to sit almost directly underneath the center of the high. This pattern of daily thunderstorms in the east and hot and mostly dry conditions in the west looks to continue throughout much of next week and potentially into the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Thunderstorm activity has ceased across the forecast area with a few light showers spotting the eastern half of the state. Strong east canyon winds continue to push thru KABQ and KSAF, gusting 25-30kts at KABQ. KABX radar is showing indications of winds wrapping around the northern side of the Sandia Mts and southward thru the metro. This is likely to dampen easterly winds at KABQ in the coming hour or two. This is supported by the dial-in ob at KAEG of winds at 060 northeast. Winds area wide will dampen overnight into Saturday morning with clearing skies. The exception will be some borderline MVFR ceilings pushing into far northeastern NM from KTCC to KCAO. Otherwise, looking at breezy to windy westerlies setting up across western and central NM Saturday afternoon, with southerlies holding onto far eastern NM. A few spot isolated thunderstorms may develop along the dryline as well, but coverage is too low to include in the KROW TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northwest NM on Saturday. The main driving force for the newly issued Red Flag Warning is the excessively dry conditions (humidity values down to 5%, with 6-12 hours of single digit humidity) and the ERCs being at or above the 90th percentile, per the Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC). Winds will be marginally critical, about 15-25 mph out of the west, but the very dry conditions allowed for high enough confidence to go with a RFW. Winds will also be strong in northeast NM, with some locations getting into critical humidity thresholds, but SWCC ERCs east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains sit around the 50th percentile. So while conditions may be met for critical fire weather in a few areas in northeast NM, the lack of receptive fuels led to no fire weather product being issued. There is also a chance for rainfall across the area today and tomorrow, continuing to limit receptive fuels.

For Sunday, the very dry air continues to stretch across all of New Mexico, with most areas seeing 12-20 hours of single digit RH. The winds remain rather light, limiting concern for critical fire weather at the moment. There is likely to be areas of elevated to near critical across the central highlands where winds around 15mph are expected. Given the very dry conditions, should the forecast winds increase, it will not take much to reach critical conditions. A backdoor cold front enters NM Sunday night, creating breezy north to northeast winds across eastern NM. This will replenish moisture across that half of the state, and daily rounds of thunderstorm chances looks likely to occur throughout much of next week. Across central and western NM, temperatures will remain hot and the air will remain mostly dry (RH a or below 15%). Winds look to remain light for the most part across the area through next week, so there is currently low confidence in critical fire weather conditions Monday onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 59 93 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 50 88 42 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 89 53 88 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 50 90 44 90 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 52 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 51 92 47 91 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 52 89 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 62 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 56 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 91 46 94 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 94 52 97 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 47 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 64 88 61 86 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 56 89 55 88 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 85 53 85 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 45 76 42 76 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 80 35 80 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 53 88 46 88 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 53 87 51 87 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 62 96 55 95 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 89 56 89 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 93 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 99 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 98 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 63 100 61 100 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 98 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 99 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 67 99 63 98 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 99 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 94 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 101 65 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 62 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 60 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 93 50 93 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 56 89 55 89 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 60 93 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 59 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 88 53 91 / 30 20 0 0 Raton........................... 52 92 52 93 / 20 10 0 0 Springer........................ 54 94 52 94 / 30 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 90 54 91 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 60 94 63 95 / 20 20 0 0 Roy............................. 57 92 57 94 / 20 20 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 100 64 101 / 50 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 96 65 97 / 40 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 99 68 102 / 20 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 65 96 67 101 / 20 20 10 0 Portales........................ 64 97 68 103 / 20 20 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 60 98 67 101 / 20 10 5 0 Roswell......................... 68 101 68 106 / 5 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 62 95 64 99 / 0 20 0 0 Elk............................. 58 92 61 96 / 0 10 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ101-105- 120-121.