textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Scattered slow-moving storms will favor the western and northern mountains into the early evening. There is a low risk of flash flooding area-wide. Storm coverage becomes more isolated Tuesday.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- Temperatures trend hotter this week. Major heat risk is forecast for the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell, Wednesday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The region will be on the northern edge of a slow moving easterly wave with instability axis forecast to extend from SW to NE. Expect best storm coverage to form along this axis from the northern Gila region towards ABQ/SAF into the LVS area. Slow storm motion and modest moisture in the area will mean the main impact will be heavy rain and localized flooding. The easterly wave will be moving west of the CWA overnight into early Tue with much drier air pushing west. Upper ridge will become more established and the main weather impact will switch to heat. NBM temps over the eastern plains out towards KTCC looked way too low and did raise from the upper 90s to above 100, but MAV is giving 105 and the MET 103. Went closer to the MET but thinking it may still not be warm enough given dew points falling into the lower to mid 40s. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible over the mountains, mainly west.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Main feature that will dominate the weather pattern through the period will be the upper high remaining near the Four Corners region into the weekend. The models have come around to a common solution for Wed/Thu with just a weak upper trough passing through the northern/central plains instead of the very strong upper low the GFS had late last week. There will still be some influence from this trough with the tail end of a surface boundary moving in from the NE and being the focus for thunderstorm development over NE NM late Wed. The moisture from that activity will then get pushed further west for Thu and there will be a more area-wide thunderstorm threat that continues into Fri. Temperatures will be hottest Wed around ABQ with upper 90s in the lowest elevations. Areas out east will already be under the influence of the trough and will be cooler than Tue. Some areas will get close to Heat Advisory criteria, but confidence not high criteria will actually be met.

For the weekend, it's more just some recycled/trapped moisture under the upper high that will help trigger thunderstorms on the area mountains and then some push onto the lower elevations with outflows. Good agreement between GFS/EC and their ensemble means with this pattern, so confidence is fairly high. It does look like with less moisture around for the weekend that temperatures will start to climb up again to near records. ABQ records are generally upper 90s, with NBM going around 97 Sat-Mon so tying or breaking a record isn't out of the question.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Scattered storms this afternoon will favor the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Storm motions will be slow towards the southwest, with storms moving off the terrain into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening. Kept in PROB30 for ABQ/AEG, GUP and SAF with ROW and FMN remaining dry. Storms will taper off after 00Z, with only a few lingering showers after 03Z. Gusty and erratic winds up to 40 knots will be the main concern with convection this afternoon/evening. Skies gradually clearing overnight and Tue morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening will focus over the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Steering flow will be weak, with slow and erratic storm motions in most areas. Given the slow steering flow, wetting rainfall will be hard to come by in lower elevation locales but locally heavy rain is possible in the mountains.

Storm coverage trends lower on Tuesday as moisture is pushed west. Isolated activity will favor the peaks of the northern mountains and the southwest higher terrain. A backdoor front will replenish moisture across the east Wednesday more area-wide coverage for Thu. Isolated to scattered coverage favors the western and northern mountains Friday through next weekend, with low chances in the eastern plains and the lower elevations of central New Mexico.

Hot temperatures are forecast area-wide all week, with highs generally running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon humidities will be low as well, with values bottoming out between 15 and 25% each day. Winds generally light except near thunderstorms as upper high dominates near the Four Corners region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 93 51 94 / 0 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 59 90 59 93 / 5 0 20 0 Gallup.......................... 58 91 59 92 / 10 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 56 85 57 87 / 30 30 10 20 Grants.......................... 58 90 59 92 / 10 20 10 5 Quemado......................... 58 87 60 89 / 40 10 20 10 Magdalena....................... 62 87 64 90 / 20 10 5 20 Datil........................... 57 83 59 86 / 30 10 10 30 Reserve......................... 55 90 59 93 / 40 20 20 30 Glenwood........................ 61 94 62 97 / 40 20 30 50 Chama........................... 51 86 53 87 / 5 0 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 62 88 63 90 / 30 40 10 20 Pecos........................... 56 88 59 90 / 50 5 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 87 58 87 / 10 0 10 10 Red River....................... 47 77 49 77 / 30 0 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 39 82 43 83 / 30 5 10 30 Taos............................ 54 91 55 92 / 10 0 10 5 Mora............................ 52 86 55 87 / 40 10 0 30 Espanola........................ 61 95 62 97 / 10 5 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 89 63 92 / 30 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 92 61 94 / 20 5 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 70 99 / 30 0 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 95 68 98 / 20 0 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 97 66 100 / 10 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 70 99 / 10 0 5 0 Belen........................... 63 96 65 100 / 10 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 98 68 101 / 20 5 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 96 64 99 / 10 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 67 98 69 101 / 20 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 96 66 99 / 10 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 65 94 67 97 / 30 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 97 69 100 / 10 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 68 97 69 101 / 10 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 89 62 92 / 30 10 5 5 Tijeras......................... 62 90 64 93 / 30 10 5 5 Edgewood........................ 56 91 59 94 / 20 10 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 93 57 95 / 10 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 58 88 61 90 / 10 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 58 90 61 93 / 20 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 58 88 60 91 / 10 5 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 63 90 66 94 / 10 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 57 84 59 87 / 20 30 10 20 Capulin......................... 58 88 57 85 / 30 0 10 70 Raton........................... 54 91 57 89 / 20 0 5 60 Springer........................ 54 94 57 92 / 20 0 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 56 89 57 90 / 20 20 10 30 Clayton......................... 67 97 65 91 / 5 10 10 10 Roy............................. 63 95 61 91 / 10 0 10 30 Conchas......................... 67 102 68 99 / 5 10 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 64 98 64 95 / 5 0 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 68 102 69 99 / 5 0 10 0 Clovis.......................... 69 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 68 102 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 100 67 101 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 69 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 95 64 97 / 0 5 10 0 Elk............................. 59 92 60 95 / 5 5 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.