textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- A few stray evaporating showers and potentially a dry thunderstorm across the central high terrain today will result in localized gusty and erratic wind gusts and patchy blowing dust. Very low chance of new fire starts from dry lightning.

- An extended period of critical fire weather conditions each afternoon Wednesday through Sunday will increase the threat of rapid fire spread with any fire starts. The areal extent and severity of fire danger will vary from day to day.

- Strong southwest and west winds will result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles on north-south highways Wednesday through Friday and again Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

High based cumulus has developed across much of the high terrain early this afternoon. Radar shows that a few very light echoes, but convection is struggling to grow given the very modest mid-level moisture. There has already been a stray lightning strike or two and there should be a few more as the afternoon progresses. Given how low the boundary layer moisture is, any lightning that does occur will not be accompanied by wetting precipitation.

Clouds should rapidly clear from the west this evening as dry westerly flow begins to take over. New Mexico will come under the influence of a Great Basin trough on Wednesday, with strengthening westerly flow aloft. The base of the trough will swing through the Four Corners region during the afternoon/evening so the strongest wind gusts will focus in this area. Models have notably trended further north with the location of the 700 mb jet so forecast wind gusts at the sfc have trended lower as well. Nonetheless, it will still be a breezy to windy day around the region tomorrow afternoon. 700 mb flow will intensity through the evening into the overnight hours along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain. Mountain wave activity along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains could bring a few strong wind gusts to locations like Las Vegas and Raton during the night, but the lack of a stable layer at crest level should prevent the occurrence of crashing mountain waves.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Gusty winds will continue into the early morning hours along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain as the 700 mb jet shifts overhead. This will keep temperatures elevated and therefore humidities low as a result along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Winds will likely peak late morning, with gusty winds spreading into the Eastern Plains during the afternoon. Furthermore, a dry Pacific cold front will sweep across the region from west to east Thursday morning through the afternoon. The frontal passage will not align well with peak daytime heating, which will help to limit max gust potential and any blowing dust concerns.

Zonal flow associated with the subtropical jet will remain entrenched over the Desert Southwest Friday through the weekend, keeping the Spring winds around each day. Winds will likely remain below Wind Advisory Thresholds (50 mph) areawide both Friday and Saturday afternoons, but winds have trended stronger on Sunday thanks to the passage of a trough to the north. The ENS ensemble mean shows a 994 mb sfc low over the TX Panhandle on Sunday afternoon, with deterministic guidance from the GFS as low as 988 mb. Where the strongest winds set up will be heavily dependent on where the sfc low develops, but models are generally favoring areas south of I-40 right now. A few gusty showers along a Pacific front will focus over far northern NM on Sunday, with very low chances for significant precipitation.

Upper-level flow will likely veer around to the southwest early next week in response to the deepening of a trough off the coast of California. This may bring some beneficial precipitation to the region around the middle of next week, but model uncertainty remains high and the likelihood of widespread precipitation remains low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Scattered, weak and high-based showers have developed over the higher terrain of New Mexico with most of the light rainfall evaporating before it reaches the ground due to very dry air in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Through sunset, these showers will produce very small areas of gusty outflow winds to 40 kt beneath them before disappearing. Thinning clouds will be observed over most locations overnight, except in the far east central plains east of a KROW to KCVS line, where low stratus clouds will once again produce MVFR ceilings between 1,000 and 3,000 ft. These low clouds are projected to stay east and out of KROW, so no mention has been included in the TAF there (just a 10-20% chance of occurrence). Winds strengthen late Wednesday morning into the afternoon with occasional gusts of 20 to 35 kt being common.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

..EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

A few gusty showers have developed over the high terrain this afternoon and a stray lightning strike or two is likely as well. Given the dry boundary layer, any lightning that does occur will not be accompanied by more than a few hundredths of precipitation. Southwest to west winds will strengthen tomorrow out ahead of a Great Basin trough. Wind speeds have notably trended down on Wednesday afternoon given that the strongest 700 mb winds will stay to the north in Colorado during peak daytime mixing. As a result, only a portion of the Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning while much of it remained as a Watch with winds being the limiting factor. Confidence continues to increase in long-duration critical conditions across the Eastern Plains and adjacent highlands on Thursday since winds will likely peak earlier during the day than normal.

The subtropical jet will remain overhead Friday through the weekend with windy and dry conditions each day. Widespread elevated to near- critical conditions are likely both Friday and Saturday in central and eastern areas then winds trend stronger on Sunday, increasing the coverage of near-critical to critical conditions. Light precipitation is still in the forecast for far northern NM this weekend, but appreciable rainfall is unlikely. Breezy to locally windy southwest to west winds will likely persist into the early part of next week, keeping fire danger high.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 45 75 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 37 72 29 63 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 42 72 34 62 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 33 71 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 39 69 34 63 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 38 75 33 67 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 39 72 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 47 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 42 70 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 75 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 41 80 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 65 28 56 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 49 72 42 63 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 43 72 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 69 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 59 31 51 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 27 66 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 38 73 33 65 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 42 72 39 63 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 45 80 41 70 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 73 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 77 41 68 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 80 49 72 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 82 46 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 85 45 77 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 83 46 75 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 46 85 41 78 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 83 46 75 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 46 85 41 77 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 51 84 46 75 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 85 43 77 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 78 47 70 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 51 83 46 75 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 88 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 75 43 67 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 76 44 68 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 77 43 69 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 78 43 71 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 45 74 44 67 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 78 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 76 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 78 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 72 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 74 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 41 78 40 72 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 41 80 41 73 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 44 75 44 68 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 84 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 80 44 73 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 49 88 50 82 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 50 83 50 78 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 52 90 53 83 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 52 89 53 82 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 52 90 54 84 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 48 88 53 83 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 51 91 54 89 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 81 50 76 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-105-106-120-122-124-126.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ104-121- 123-125.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.