textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through this evening. These storms will also be capable of frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds and small hail.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The closed Low that created significant flooding over western NM yesterday has moved northward into SE Utah this afternoon. There is still plentiful moisture across the western half of the state, with PWATs above the 95th percentile. Drier air has worked its way into eastern and central NM from the southeast, which has helped to limit convection along the east slopes of the central mountain chain thus far today. Recent hi-res guidance has backed off rainfall amounts over the South Fork and Salt burn scars, but 90th percentile amounts are still well-above 1" and remain cause for concern. Rainfall rates will be higher across the western half of the state, where locally 2"/hour rates could occur. However, the smaller updrafts compared to yesterday will generally keep rainfall durations under 1 hour this afternoon. This heavy sub-hourly rainfall is still enough to create issues, particularly in the San Juan River Valley where less than 1" in a very short period can be enough to produce flash flooding. Storms will be moving from south to north at 10 to 20 mph and could get tied to S/N oriented terrain as well. Rainfall rates will trend lower with the loss of daytime heating this evening, with shower and embedded storms focusing over the northwest third of the state overnight.

The upper high currently centered over north Texas will shift westward Thursday, centering itself over southeast NM by the afternoon. The disturbance over Utah today will then be pulled eastward, trekking across southern Colorado through the day. As a result, storm coverage will focus over northern NM, with lesser rain chances south of I-40. Hi-res models are still showing scattered storms developing over the Cont. Divide, with these showers moving into the RGV during the late afternoon and evening hours. The flash flood risk for Thursday will be notably lower, with drier air working its way underneath the center of the ridge. 90th percentile amounts from the RRFS and HREF still show localized pockets of 1-2" so an isolated case or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out. With the ridge shifting overhead tomorrow and 500 mb heights rising, temperatures will tick up a couple of degrees. This will be the first of a multi-day stretch of 100 degree heat for the southeast plains and the Roswell area could even flirt with the 105F degree mark. The NBM was notably cooler on temps compared to other guidance, so maxTs were nudged a bit higher.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The upper high will continue its trek westward on Friday, centering itself somewhere over western NM. This will allow storm outflows from more robust convection over SE Colorado Thursday night to push moisture south and westward into eastern and central NM Friday. Storms will therefore focus over these areas on Saturday when rain chances in the eastern plains will be higher than they have been for days. The storms and associated clouds should keep temperatures down a few degrees, but it will still be a hot day with high temps in the upper 90s and low 100s.

The upper high will likely change location this weekend into early next week, but its exact location is slightly different in the 3 ensemble means. Regardless of the exact location of the high, slow and erratic storm motions are favored, which will elevate the threat of flash flooding. PWATs will generally be 100-130% of normal, which is notable for late July because it is near the climatological peak in atmospheric moisture content. Model guidance continues to diverge early next week, with regard to the location of the high, with the location ranging from northeast Arizona to the TX Panhandle.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to favor the mountains and adjacent highlands of western and central NM through the evening. Some storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds to 35kt. Brief IFR vsbys are expected with the stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off around 06Z with only light showers remaining thereafter. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday afternoon, but storms will stretch from southwest to northeast NM and should not be as numerous as today. Can't rule out a few stronger storms with small hail, heavy rain and gusty winds, but they will the exception to the rule. Storms will move toward the east and northeast around 8 to 15kt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next seven days. Scattered showers and storms will favor the western half of the state today, with activity focusing over northern New Mexico on Thursday. Rain chances trend higher again Friday into the weekend as high pressure re-centers itself over central NM. This will result in slow-moving showers and storms that will favor the mountains. Temperatures late week into the weekend will be hot with highs generally 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Scattered showers and storms will favor the western half of the state early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 88 65 93 / 50 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 55 85 54 91 / 80 30 20 30 Cuba............................ 59 85 60 88 / 50 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 86 60 89 / 50 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 57 83 59 85 / 50 20 10 40 Grants.......................... 59 88 61 89 / 50 20 20 30 Quemado......................... 58 85 60 86 / 40 20 20 10 Magdalena....................... 64 87 66 89 / 10 20 20 40 Datil........................... 58 83 60 85 / 20 20 20 30 Reserve......................... 57 91 59 94 / 20 10 20 30 Glenwood........................ 59 95 63 98 / 20 5 10 5 Chama........................... 53 79 53 84 / 70 40 20 60 Los Alamos...................... 64 86 65 87 / 30 30 20 40 Pecos........................... 59 88 60 89 / 20 10 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 84 57 86 / 20 30 30 60 Red River....................... 49 75 49 77 / 20 30 40 80 Angel Fire...................... 47 81 46 81 / 20 10 20 90 Taos............................ 58 87 57 88 / 20 20 20 50 Mora............................ 56 87 57 86 / 10 10 10 80 Espanola........................ 67 93 66 95 / 30 30 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 63 87 63 89 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 90 63 92 / 20 20 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 94 69 96 / 10 20 30 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 95 70 96 / 10 20 30 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 97 69 99 / 10 20 30 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 95 70 97 / 20 20 30 0 Belen........................... 67 97 69 99 / 10 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 96 69 98 / 20 20 30 0 Bosque Farms.................... 64 96 66 98 / 10 10 30 0 Corrales........................ 67 96 69 98 / 20 20 30 0 Los Lunas....................... 65 96 67 98 / 10 10 30 0 Placitas........................ 66 92 67 94 / 10 20 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 95 69 97 / 20 20 30 0 Socorro......................... 71 100 73 101 / 5 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 88 64 90 / 10 20 20 5 Tijeras......................... 63 89 64 91 / 10 20 20 5 Edgewood........................ 60 91 61 93 / 10 10 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 93 57 94 / 5 10 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 59 88 60 89 / 10 5 10 30 Mountainair..................... 61 92 62 93 / 5 10 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 61 90 62 91 / 5 5 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 67 93 69 95 / 5 5 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 61 86 63 89 / 20 20 0 20 Capulin......................... 59 91 57 87 / 5 20 40 70 Raton........................... 57 94 56 91 / 5 20 20 80 Springer........................ 60 96 59 93 / 5 10 20 70 Las Vegas....................... 59 90 59 89 / 5 5 10 60 Clayton......................... 67 100 66 96 / 0 5 60 30 Roy............................. 64 94 63 92 / 0 0 30 50 Conchas......................... 69 103 69 101 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 71 103 72 102 / 0 0 5 20 Clovis.......................... 69 102 71 102 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 71 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 70 102 71 102 / 0 0 0 20 Roswell......................... 72 104 74 105 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 66 98 68 99 / 5 5 0 10 Elk............................. 62 94 65 96 / 5 0 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201>208.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.