textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1132 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026 - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread will set up today through Monday with the most widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions expected Sunday and Monday.

- Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- There is a moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations today across the eastern plains due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 108 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

An active fire growth weather pattern highlighted by very dry southwesterly winds and very low humidity remains on track for this weekend across the Land of Enchantment. Today will see a pleasant start to the day with light morning winds yielding to increasing southwesterly winds this afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a sharpening troughing pattern over the PacNW will be the culprit for this, raising temperatures and lowering humidity. Well above normal high temperatures will again blanket the state, ranging from the 60s/70s in the mountain to 80s in the middle elevations of western and northern NM, 90s in the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains. Breezy to locally windy conditions will be the rule with gusts commonly reaching 15 to 25 mph over a majority of the forecast area. A few wind prone spots like the lower Rio Grande Valley and northeast highlands along I-25 from Las Vegas to Raton will see some peak gusts reaching 25 to 40 mph.

The aforementioned troughing pattern over the PacNW closes off and digs southward over the Great Basin region, further strengthening very dry southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest. Widespread gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph will be the rule with peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph focused along and east of the central mountain chain, lower Rio Grande Valley, and west-central NM. While mixing heights will remain high, reaching up to 12k-14kft, the main jetmax associated with the closed will remain off the north and west of the region. H7 winds being tapped into for peak gusts will be relatively limited until Monday. Lower pressure heights will allow high temperatures to retreat a few degrees over western NM to near normal, however above normal highs in the upper 80s to 90s for the lower elevations of the middle Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains will remain. Coupled with the winds, the heat will allow for some patchy blowing dust to develop Sunday afternoon. A few dust prone locations could cause visibility impacts for drivers alongside more widespread hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles on area highways.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 108 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Winds taper off for the most part Sunday night, or at least back off from their peak spreads. The main H5 closed low will track west to east across the CO Rockies heading into Monday morning. This will leave dry and windy conditions touring NM while precipitation chances will remain north of the NM/CO border for the most part. The main 80-90kt jetmax core will cross northern NM, coupled with a ~992mb MSLP lee surface low over southeastern CO. This will enhance wind potential Monday relative to Sunday, notably over northeastern NM where vertical mixing tapping into 50kt H7 winds and a sharpening surface pressure gradient will allow for strong southwesterly wind gusts to peak 45 to 55 mph. More widespread peak gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be focus elsewhere along and east of the central mountain chain. Wind Advisories, and perhaps a High Wind Warning or two, will considered for these areas as we get closer to Monday. Patchy blowing dust producing localized lowered visibility and more widespread hazardous crosswinds on area highways will again be present. Winds will be less further west toward AZ, but still windy.

Winds weaken quickly Monday evening and night as the main H5 closed low opens and ejects northeastward out over the northern Great Plains. Northerly winds associated with a cold front backing into northeastern NM advance to ~I-40 before behind shunted back and veering out of the southeast. Otherwise, Tuesday sees fairly pleasant conditions areawide with highs in the 60s in the mountains and 70s/80s at middle to lower elevation areas.

The aforementioned cold front backing into northeastern NM advances further through all of eastern NM Wednesday, and further west into the Rio Grande Valley and Continental Divide Thursday and Friday. Amid weaker flow and winds aloft, this will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity could favor the Rio Grande Valley area as well, especially by Thursday and Friday to end the work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Other than a few high-based cumulus clouds this afternoon, mostly clear skies will prevail. Winds will strenthen today, especially in the northeast highlands and across the south central highlands and middle to lower Rio Grande valley where gusts will approach 30 to 35 kt. Winds will be slow to relax in some areas this evening, especially along the Continental Divide and central mountain chain, with many areas remaining breezy all night long. Low level wind shear will also become established in several areas tonight through Sunday morning. Stronger winds aloft arrive Sunday, mixing down to the surface through the late morning and early afternoon with more widespread gusts to 30 to 40 kt and patchy blowing dust.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

...FIRE GROWING PATTERN BUILDING TODAY, PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

Very dry southwesterly flow aloft increases this afternoon alongside critically low humidity bottoming out to 5 to 10 percent. Many lower elevation areas seeing well above normal highs in the 80s to 90s will see 6 to 12 hours of single-digit humidity. Winds remain the limiting factor for classical critical fire weather conditions, especially across the east-central plains. However, given the litter of active fires there and conditions favoring stronger winds pushing up the Rio Grande Valley and adjacent south-central highlands b/w the Manzano and Gallinas Mountains, have elected to upgrade the remainder of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Saturday.

Fire weather conditions intensify Sunday and Monday, with winds increasing in strength alongside more rounds of single-digit humidity each afternoon. Sunday afternoon sees conditions for the most widespread sustained winds of 20-30 mph while Monday sees this shift focus more to the eastern half of the state but with the higher wind speed potential. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph will favor the northeastern highlands Monday afternoon along the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to Raton. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday for all areas except the northern mountains, Upper Rio Grande Valley, and the Northwest Plateau near the Four Corners. Widespread critical to extremely critical conditions due the strong winds and very low humidity will be present elsewhere over the forecast area. Another Fire Weather Watch will likely be needed Monday as we step closer in time.

Critical fire weather conditions abate as winds lessen substantially areawide Tuesday alongside cooler temperatures and increased moisture behind a cold front pushing into northeastern NM. These cooler temperatures and higher moisture advance thru eastern NM Wednesday, advancing into the Rio Grande Valley and toward the Continental Divide Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 86 49 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 41 75 41 / 0 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 82 44 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 80 41 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 43 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 82 43 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 80 44 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 82 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 79 45 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 82 40 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 86 43 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 75 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 80 53 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 83 47 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 72 37 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 75 36 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 81 44 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 80 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 87 47 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 82 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 48 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 56 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 49 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 90 51 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 89 54 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 89 48 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 89 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 89 50 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 85 56 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 88 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 91 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 53 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 83 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 84 52 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 45 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 82 51 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 83 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 82 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 84 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 79 51 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 82 45 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 86 45 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 88 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 83 51 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 91 55 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 87 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 95 58 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 91 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 60 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 56 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 97 56 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 55 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 57 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 90 55 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 86 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106- 123>126.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ104>106- 109-121-123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126.