textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mostly across the high terrain and nearby lower elevations. Overall storm coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 107 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

An elongated, double-lobed low over OR, WA, and British Columbia will send the southern vort max eastward into MT today while the other one sags south into its wake. A 55-80 kt jet at 300 mb is also stretching from the lower CO river basin northeastward to UT, CO, and WY. High pressure will continue to build over the southern plains, and ample monsoon moisture will remain present over most of NM (PWATs ranging from 0.7 inch in the northern mountains to about 1.2 inches in lower elevations near the Pecos valley). Pinpointing the best instability along with this moisture, the theta-E ridge leans from the southwestern and south central mountains to the northern peaks with the western-most portion of this swath hosting the highest values. Consequently, this is where most convection is modeled to develop this afternoon before outflows initiate new cells into nearby lower elevations and valleys this evening. Storm motions will tend to all drift northward, but some deviations will certainly appear, given the asymmetrical shape of the high, and speeds will range from about 5 to 15 kt with cells in the northern half of the CWA tending to be quicker. Temperatures will be comparable to yesterday with highs running around 10 degrees above normal in the east where pressure heights are highest.

The latter lobe of the double low in the Pacific Northwest will shift into MT on Tuesday, following its predecessor. This will drag the jet up into the central Rockies to the northern plains while the upper high sprawls and elongates across the southern states. This will only subtly modify the moisture and instability axis over NM with just a minor nudge eastward, opening the opportunity for more convection over the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. The northeast plains and nearby highlands would also likely see scattered storms with minimal activity in our southeastern and far northwestern zones. Storms would slow down and motion would turn more erratic with a near persistence temperature forecast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 107 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The sprawling high will continue to overlay the southern states into Wednesday, with pressure rises modeled over NM (500 mb heights reaching near 596 decameters over western portions of the state). This would yield a degree or two of warming, but a backdoor front entering northeastern zones will likely reduce readings by a couple to a few degrees, particularly in Colfax and Union counties. Otherwise, moisture will be readily available over most of the forecast area except the northwestern quadrant of the state where some drier air will have wrapped in. This will again leave out those northwestern zones and southeastern zones for any storm potential Wednesday while the areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristos see an uptick due to upslope and surface/moisture convergence.

High pressure looks to stay over or to the southwest of NM into Thursday and Friday. Drier westerly flow will will begin to become more invasive Thursday (mainly over northwestern to north central zones) and more-so into Friday (over much of northern and central NM). With PWATs falling to 0.6 to 0.7 inch in many of these drier areas, storms will reduce in number. This will send temperatures climbing 5 to almost 15 degrees above normal.

Into the upcoming weekend, the pattern will potentially start to turn a bit more dynamic with the high shifting east of NM while another deep upper low moves into the Pacific Northwest states. This would allow subtropical moisture to be squeezed northward into NM, between the upper level features, and POPs increase again with scattered coverage favoring the western and central high terrain. Temperatures would ease down closer to, but still slightly above, normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms favoring the southwest and north central mountains along with the Continental Divide this afternoon before spreading northeast into the upper and middle RGV early this evening. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph, and frequent lightning. Shower and thunderstorm activity across central NM lingers through late this evening. Clearing skies and light winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today, the deepest moisture and instability will stretch from the southwestern and south central mountains to the northern peaks of NM. Heavy downpours will be possible today, mostly south of I-40, as cells will tend to move a bit quicker to the north of this line. Overall wetting rainfall will still be spotty and not very widespread while temperatures remain near to slightly above normal by 5 to 10 degrees. After good to excellent humidity recovery this morning, readings will commonly fall to 25 to 35 percent late this afternoon.

Storms will tend to become a bit more numerous over the central mountain chain on Tuesday as moisture/instability nudge that way. High pressure moves back to the west on Wednesday with storms favoring the west central and southwestern mountains, as well as the central mountain chain. In addition, storms will develop more easily in northeastern NM on Wednesday when a weak, but moist backdoor front moves in. This front could send a convectively-aided outflow boundary into central gaps and canyons creating some gusty conditions, but confidence is quite low on this scenario playing out Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, wind concerns will be relegated to shorter duration and localized storm outflow gusts.

Storms will start to shrink in coverage Thursday and more-so into Friday as weak, but drier, westerlies aloft invade. This could change into the upcoming weekend as high pressure nudges eastward and a deep low enters the Pacific Northwest, allowing subtropical monsoon moisture to seep back into NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 88 62 91 61 / 10 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 48 89 47 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 84 57 86 57 / 30 50 0 10 Gallup.......................... 86 55 88 56 / 10 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 82 54 84 55 / 50 50 30 20 Grants.......................... 85 58 86 58 / 70 70 40 20 Quemado......................... 82 56 83 57 / 80 40 50 30 Magdalena....................... 84 60 84 62 / 50 50 50 10 Datil........................... 80 57 80 58 / 80 60 50 30 Reserve......................... 88 56 89 57 / 80 50 50 20 Glenwood........................ 95 61 95 62 / 70 50 40 20 Chama........................... 80 51 83 52 / 5 10 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 84 62 84 63 / 30 50 50 20 Pecos........................... 85 58 86 59 / 20 30 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 56 84 56 / 20 20 20 10 Red River....................... 74 48 75 48 / 20 20 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 79 43 80 42 / 40 20 50 10 Taos............................ 86 55 88 54 / 20 20 20 10 Mora............................ 83 54 83 54 / 30 30 70 20 Espanola........................ 91 62 91 62 / 30 50 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 86 62 87 63 / 20 40 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 61 89 61 / 20 40 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 68 93 70 / 10 40 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 66 93 67 / 10 40 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 65 95 67 / 10 40 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 68 94 69 / 20 40 10 10 Belen........................... 94 64 94 65 / 20 40 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 94 67 95 68 / 20 40 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 94 63 93 65 / 10 40 10 10 Corrales........................ 94 67 95 68 / 20 40 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 94 64 93 66 / 10 40 10 10 Placitas........................ 90 66 91 67 / 20 40 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 93 67 94 68 / 20 40 10 10 Socorro......................... 95 68 95 70 / 20 40 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 61 87 63 / 20 40 10 20 Tijeras......................... 87 62 88 64 / 20 40 10 20 Edgewood........................ 88 58 89 60 / 20 40 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 57 91 57 / 20 40 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 85 60 87 60 / 10 30 20 30 Mountainair..................... 87 58 88 60 / 20 30 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 87 59 88 61 / 5 20 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 90 64 90 65 / 10 10 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 82 57 82 58 / 20 5 50 10 Capulin......................... 87 59 86 56 / 10 20 70 40 Raton........................... 90 57 89 55 / 20 20 60 10 Springer........................ 92 58 92 56 / 20 20 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 87 58 87 57 / 10 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 93 67 93 65 / 10 5 20 30 Roy............................. 90 63 91 61 / 5 5 20 40 Conchas......................... 98 68 99 68 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 95 67 95 66 / 0 0 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 98 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 96 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 97 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 97 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 98 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 91 61 92 63 / 0 0 10 5 Elk............................. 88 59 90 59 / 10 0 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.