textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Friday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a risk of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars.

- Some storms over west central and northwest areas will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

As a ridge of high pressure begins to build northward over the southern Great Plains, Gulf moisture will begin to move into the forecast area tonight and Monday. Initially the moisture won't be too rich, so there will be an isolated mix of wet and dry storms Monday afternoon and evening over the east central and southeast plains, with widely scattered activity over the south central mountains.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

An upper level trough will also develop over the west coast Monday. Models are coming into better agreement that it will deepen into a closed upper level low pressure system over the upper Baja Peninsula by Wednesday, migrate slowly eastward over northern Mexico Thursday and Thursday night, then lift northeastward across southeast NM and the TX and OK panhandles Friday and Friday night. This will draw deeper Gulf moisture over NM with daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the continental divide Tuesday through Thursday. There will also be isolated to scattered convection along and just west of the continental divide with gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms in the mix there. A series of perturbations in southwest flow aloft will sweep across the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday keeping showers and thunderstorms active during the late night and morning hours mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. PWATs Tuesday through Thursday should generally vary around 0.80-1.30" over the southeast half of the forecast area, where there will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall during the afternoon and overnight hours. The recent burn scars of the south central mountains will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding as the week progresses and the soil gets more and more saturated. The Weather Prediction Center forecasts 0.75-1.75" inches of rain this week along and east of the central mountain chain, while the NBM forecasts a 45% chance of over 2 inches of rainfall in eastern Curry and Roosevelt Counties, and a 20% chance of over 2 inches in the Ruidoso and Roswell areas. Locations west of the central mountain chain can generally expect 0.10-0.40 inches of rainfall mostly Tuesday through Thursday evening with locally heavier amounts in the mountains, lighter amounts along the continental divide of northwest NM, and little or no rain accumulation over the northwest corner of the state.

Models have been consistently depicting drier air filtering over the forecast area with a downtick in thunderstorm coverage on Friday as the upper low crosses the southeast half of NM, where most of the precip will be. The upper low should shift into KS by Saturday, but it looks to be broad enough for another round of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms in wrap around moisture over the northern mountains, northeast and east central plains Saturday afternoon.

After high temperatures a few to around 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages Monday, readings will trend cooler, bottoming out Wednesday and Thursday from near average over the northwest to as much as 13 degrees below average in the east. Highs will then begin to trend warmer Friday, and reach within 4 degrees of average Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

LLWS will develop over eastern NM tonight with a southerly low level jet taking shape. Otherwise, VFR all areas under SKC and light surface winds tonight. SHRA/TS will develop around the Sacramento Mts after 12pm Tuesday with downburst wind gusts >40KT likely in the vcnty of KSRR thru late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Minimum humidities near and below 15 percent will return Monday, except on the far eastern plains where they will climb up to 20 percent. Most of the storms on the east central plains Monday afternoon and evening will produce gusty winds with little or no rain reaching the surface. Poor humidity recovery is forecast along and west of the central mountain chain tonight, and along and west of the continental divide Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon, critically low minimum humidities should be relegated along and west of the continental divide, then over the Four Corners on Wednesday. Tuesday through Thursday, the northwest edge of the Gulf Moisture should feature some gusty and dry thunderstorms along and just west of the continental divide. Otherwise, the main fire weather concerns will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, especially during the afternoon and evening over southern and eastern areas where a few of the stronger wet microbursts will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 90 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 38 86 43 86 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 47 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 20 Gallup.......................... 41 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 44 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 30 Grants.......................... 43 87 50 85 / 0 0 0 30 Quemado......................... 46 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 50 Magdalena....................... 53 86 59 82 / 0 0 5 70 Datil........................... 48 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 70 Reserve......................... 43 90 49 90 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 45 95 53 94 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 38 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 54 83 60 80 / 0 0 10 50 Pecos........................... 45 85 52 79 / 0 0 10 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 81 52 78 / 0 0 5 50 Red River....................... 35 73 41 69 / 0 0 5 70 Angel Fire...................... 31 78 39 72 / 0 0 5 90 Taos............................ 42 85 49 81 / 0 0 5 60 Mora............................ 45 83 50 75 / 0 0 5 90 Espanola........................ 49 91 57 88 / 0 0 10 50 Santa Fe........................ 52 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 87 57 83 / 0 0 5 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 91 65 87 / 0 0 5 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 91 61 88 / 0 0 5 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 94 61 90 / 0 0 5 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 92 62 89 / 0 0 5 50 Belen........................... 54 94 59 90 / 0 0 5 60 Bernalillo...................... 56 93 62 89 / 0 0 5 60 Bosque Farms.................... 52 93 58 90 / 0 0 5 60 Corrales........................ 56 93 62 90 / 0 0 5 60 Los Lunas....................... 54 93 59 89 / 0 0 5 60 Placitas........................ 57 89 63 85 / 0 0 5 60 Rio Rancho...................... 57 92 62 89 / 0 0 5 50 Socorro......................... 59 96 65 92 / 0 0 5 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 86 59 81 / 0 0 5 70 Tijeras......................... 54 86 58 82 / 0 0 5 70 Edgewood........................ 51 88 57 82 / 0 0 10 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 89 53 83 / 0 0 10 80 Clines Corners.................. 50 85 54 77 / 0 5 5 90 Mountainair..................... 49 88 54 83 / 0 5 5 80 Gran Quivira.................... 49 86 55 81 / 0 10 5 80 Carrizozo....................... 59 90 62 85 / 0 10 5 80 Ruidoso......................... 56 83 57 77 / 0 40 5 90 Capulin......................... 47 82 50 74 / 0 0 0 70 Raton........................... 46 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 70 Springer........................ 46 89 52 79 / 0 0 0 70 Las Vegas....................... 47 86 53 76 / 0 0 5 90 Clayton......................... 53 90 56 81 / 0 0 5 70 Roy............................. 51 87 55 78 / 0 0 5 70 Conchas......................... 55 94 59 85 / 0 10 10 70 Santa Rosa...................... 54 91 57 82 / 0 20 5 70 Tucumcari....................... 60 96 61 88 / 0 20 10 70 Clovis.......................... 60 95 60 88 / 0 20 10 50 Portales........................ 60 95 60 89 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Sumner..................... 59 94 59 86 / 0 20 10 70 Roswell......................... 63 97 64 90 / 0 20 10 50 Picacho......................... 57 91 59 84 / 0 40 10 80 Elk............................. 56 91 57 84 / 0 30 20 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.