textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - There is a moderate risk of heat induced illness through lower elevation areas where highs peak in the 90s to low 100s each day. Localized major heat risk Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is a moderate risk of scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms producing strong gusty and erratic winds thru western and central NM Tuesday thru Friday.

- There is a low (<20%) chance of isolated strong to severe storms in northeastern NM each afternoon and evening Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Zonal flow remains aloft over New Mexico tonight with a perturbation having generated convection along the CO Front Range earlier Sunday afternoon. Outflow from this convection has pushed strong northerly to northeasterly winds alongside a significant uptick in low-level moisture into far northeastern NM this hour. This boundary will advance south and westward thru eastern NM like a frontal boundary and push thru the gaps of the central mountain chain near or just before sunrise this morning. A bank of low stratus already forming thru far northeastern NM will likely expand to portions of the central highlands and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps even to the Estancia Basin. Cooler air behind this boundary will drop high temperatures back 8F to 12F thru eastern NM back into the 80s and 90s. Much drier westerlies will continue thru western NM and act to mix out the cooler air and higher humidity having spilled into the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. The question will be how far drier and hotter air will mix back into the central highlands and southeastern plains from Moriarty to Roswell, in turn affecting how hot temperatures will rebound in those areas. Further north, there will be another round of afternoon strong to severe thunderstorms moving off the CO Front Range southeastward having a minor chance of clipping far northeastern NM this evening.

Having been pushed back east a bit this afternoon, the cooler air and higher humidity across eastern NM will push back west and thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning. Drier westerlies rounding the northern periphery of a 598dm H5 monsoon high building over southern NM will mix out and push this moisture back toward TX Tuesday afternoon. Modest mid-level moisture rounding the western periphery of the H5 high thru AZ and into western NM will yield a few spot virga showers capable of producing gusty and erratic winds with little to no associated rainfall. Drier conditions, downsloping westerlies, and building pressure heights will raise temperatures again across eastern NM. Moderate to locally major heat risk will be present through lower elevation areas where highs climb into the low 100s. Heat Advisories look likely again for Roswell, and may be necessary for Socorro and Tucumcari where highs get close to 105F. Aside from the heat and virga showers, there is a minor risk of a strong to severe thunderstorms developing off the CO Front Range clipping far northeastern NM late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Wednesday begins the long term period with more of the aforementioned mid level moisture pushing into western and central NM along the western and northern periphery of the H5 high centered over the NM bootheel. The question will be how far into the central highlands resulting virga and isolated dry thunderstorms will push as another weak outflow boundary from CO will push additional low- level moisture into eastern NM. Current odds on favor are for any thunderstorms developing off surface boundary interactions of northeastern and east-central NM will be more efficient rain producers compared to their southern and western brethren. Dry lightning and potentially strong to severe downburst winds fueled by 1000 - 1400 J/kg of DCAPE amidst inverted-V soundings will be the main hazards associated with any of the virga or dry thunderstorms over central and western NM. Thursday and Friday see similar threats of strong erratic and gusty winds and dry lightning from virga and dry thunderstorms across the forecast area. This afternoon convection will favor development over the high terrain in the early afternoon before trekking westward thru the late afternoon and evening hours. Unfortunately, little to no rain will fall alongside these storms.

The weekend sees an upper level trough close off to a low over the PacNW. This brings increasing westerly then southwesterly flow back into the Desert Southwest, shutting down what little precipitation chances there were associated with the virga and dry thunderstorm threat earlier in the week. Highs will remain in the 70s/80s in the mountains with 90s to low 100s at lower elevations, creeping into the mid to upper 100s near Roswell.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A convectively enhanced frontal boundary will advance south and westward thru eastern NM tonight thru Monday morning, pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain thru KSKX-KSAF-KABQ arriving b/w 09Z to 12Z. Gusty winds of 15 to 25 kts will be possible, including for terminals across eastern NM where wind directions will be more N/NE. Surface winds across eastern NM veer E/SE Monday afternoon and evening, with westerlies pushing back into the Rio Grande Valley. Elsewhere, smoke from western CONUS wildfires could bring haze and slight vis reductions to western NM tonight. Any thunderstorm chances look to be relegated to far northeastern NM from KRTN to KCAO late in the TAF period Monday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A frontal boundary like feature will bring northeasterly winds and higher humidity thru eastern NM this morning, bringing gusty east canyon winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley near sunrise. This will bring a brief increased MinRH recovery to the Rio Grande Valley before drier westerlies mix back in this afternoon. Tuesday sees a monsoon high build over southern NM bringing up some mid-level moisture into western and central NM. This will yield scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms capable of threatening strong and erratic gusty winds alongside dry lightning each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Friday to western and central NM. This threat will try to spread to portions of the central highland and eastern plains Thursday and Friday, but any thunderstorms that far east will likely be more efficient rain producers. Increasing westerly to southwesterly flow next weekend will threaten a fire growing pattern across the state. All the while, daily high temperatures will remain hot with 90s to low 100s for lower elevation areas with the exception of eastern NM today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 54 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 92 44 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 54 92 58 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 93 48 95 56 / 0 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 90 52 91 56 / 0 0 10 10 Grants.......................... 94 52 96 56 / 0 0 10 10 Quemado......................... 91 55 92 59 / 0 0 10 10 Magdalena....................... 93 63 95 65 / 0 0 10 5 Datil........................... 91 58 91 61 / 0 0 10 10 Reserve......................... 96 52 96 54 / 0 0 10 5 Glenwood........................ 99 58 101 60 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 85 45 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 90 62 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 54 92 57 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 76 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 81 38 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 89 51 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 85 50 90 54 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 95 59 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 91 59 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 57 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 67 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 62 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 64 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 101 61 102 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 62 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 60 101 63 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 63 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 100 60 102 63 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 95 64 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 101 70 104 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 92 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 93 57 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 51 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 87 55 92 58 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 92 58 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 92 59 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 96 66 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 85 61 91 62 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 81 54 91 54 / 20 10 0 5 Raton........................... 85 52 97 55 / 10 5 0 0 Springer........................ 87 54 98 56 / 10 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 86 54 94 58 / 5 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 83 60 97 61 / 20 10 10 20 Roy............................. 83 58 95 59 / 5 10 5 0 Conchas......................... 87 63 102 63 / 5 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 87 62 101 63 / 5 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 86 65 104 67 / 5 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 88 65 102 67 / 5 10 0 0 Portales........................ 89 66 103 68 / 5 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 92 66 103 68 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 99 69 106 70 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 64 100 67 / 5 0 5 0 Elk............................. 92 61 97 64 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.