textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return for most areas on Thursday and for eastern New Mexico on Friday. Strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins.

- Temperatures will fall back near or below seasonal normals Friday and Saturday.

- Precipitation chances return near the Colorado border Friday with broader precipitation chances returning early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

A backdoor cold front is currently pressing through eastern NM early this morning with a brief period of gusty winds behind it. Sprinkles were noted on radar across much of northeast NM through the evening, but these echoes are diminishing quickly. There are low chances of a light east canyon wind in the ABQ Metro area early this morning, otherwise quiet conditions will prevail through sunrise.

Today will be a beautiful day across the Land of Enchantment with light winds, plenty of sun and temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Wednesday night low temperatures will be up to 15 degrees above normal as well.

For Wednesday night into Thursday, the next storm system is still poised to dive southward across the Great Basin and weakly close off in the vicinity of southern UT. Southwest winds ahead of the system are still expected to increase over NM, though the strongest mid level winds will arrive later, now crossing NM Thursday night and Friday. A 994 mb surface low will develop over SE CO Thursday afternoon and deep mixing (near 550mb) will still yield a windy day areawide, though speeds have come down a few mph overall compared to this time yesterday. Nonetheless, widespread gusts between 35 and 45 mph are likely Thursday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will climb from today's readings across eastern NM thanks to the downslope component of the winds. Highs will be 8 to 10 degrees warmer than today in this area. A few locations may near records for the date.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

The weakly closed low will cross CO Thursday night into Friday. A few rain and snow showers will impact areas along the Colorado border, but no significant accumulations are expected. Of greater concern will be the winds. As mentioned above, the strongest mid level winds will cross the state Thursday night and Friday. Thus, wind speeds will be slow to decrease Thursday evening, and gusty winds will be felt at mountain peaks through the overnight hours. By sunrise Friday, H7 winds will near 50-60kt along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain (mainly from the Sandia Mtns southward). This will increase the concern for mountain waves and erratic winds along and just east of the high terrain during the morning hours Friday, especially as the Pacific front passes. Wind Advisories or High Wind Warnings may be necessary if this trend continues. The mid level jet will pull away from the state Friday afternoon, though breezy to windy west winds will still plague eastern NM. One fly in the ointment will be the timing of the backdoor cold front. The NAM brings the front into northeast NM by 18Z Friday, nearing the I-40 corridor by 21Z. Though this is the lone model doing so, it bears watching as the NAM tends to do a little better with timing of backdoor fronts. If this occurs, there will still be breezes, but cooler and out of the north, rather than the west.

Meanwhile, the secondary trough will be sliding southward on the backside of the initial system, and is still expected to close off and retrograde to the southwest Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, the aforementioned front will continue to slide south and west across the state. Gusty east canyon winds should develop in the Rio Grande Valley by Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near to below normal both Friday and Saturday in the wake of the Pacific and backdoor fronts.

While the low meanders near the northern Baja, relatively quiet conditions will prevail across NM on Sunday, though southerly flow will begin to draw up Gulf and Pacific moisture into NM. On Monday, the low will begin to shift eastward but there is considerable uncertainty with regards to how the low will eject, namely how strong and how far north it will be. Monday and Tuesday appear to be unsettled with chances for precipitation and perhaps gusty winds as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period for most sites. Light and variable winds across the area, along with some few to scattered high clouds. Some low level wind shear looks to develop in northeast New Mexico tonight, particularly near KRTN, KCAO, and KTCC. Wind shear diminishes as winds mix out on Thursday morning and into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Quiet weather is expected today with light winds and above normal temperatures, but critical fire weather conditions will return to NM on Thursday and potentially Friday as well. On Thursday, southwest winds will strengthen with gusts between 35 and 45 mph areawide as humidity values fall below 15 percent nearly areawide. In fact, 3 to 7 hours of single digit RH is expected across much of eastern NM. With considerable fine fuel loading, high fire danger exists across eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for all of eastern NM, though elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will occur elsewhere. The strongest winds may occur Thursday night into Friday morning, especially along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain, but winds will slowly decrease through Friday afternoon. Nonetheless, breezy to windy westerly winds will impact eastern NM with daytime mixing. RH values Friday afternoon will remain below 15 percent for much of eastern NM as well. However, this will depend on the timing of a backdoor cold front. If the front arrives earlier, the threat for critical fire weather conditions would decrease. Cooler temperatures are also expected for Friday areawide. The front will arrive by Friday night and push south and west across the state, with strong gap winds expected in the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonable. More uncertainty in the forecast exists early next week, but Sunday should largely remain quiet with increasing chances for precipitation on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 34 64 29 / 0 0 5 20 Dulce........................... 61 23 61 21 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 61 30 61 24 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 65 24 61 19 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 62 29 60 23 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 67 24 66 22 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 65 29 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 66 38 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 63 31 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 68 27 65 24 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 32 70 26 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 55 25 53 19 / 0 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 61 37 59 31 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 62 31 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 59 34 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 28 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 56 22 56 18 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 62 25 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 64 30 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 29 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 36 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 33 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 42 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 38 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 35 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 38 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 70 32 74 31 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 38 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 32 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 70 37 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 70 33 73 31 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 40 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 38 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 74 38 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 37 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 38 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 34 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 28 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 33 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 66 35 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 35 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 70 42 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 64 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 61 30 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 65 26 67 25 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 25 69 26 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 65 32 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 65 38 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 34 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 73 37 79 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 69 36 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 72 42 79 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 45 79 41 / 0 0 10 0 Portales........................ 73 45 81 42 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 72 38 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 74 44 82 41 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 71 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 74 39 74 41 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.