textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- River flooding will linger over parts of central and northern New Mexico today.

- Some showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over the southeast third of the forecast area Thursday night and Friday, then over the southwest mountains Friday afternoon and night.

- Wintry precipitation looks increasingly likely in the mountains, and potentially in central, western, and northern highlands locations Sunday night into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for Raton Pass, the Far Northeast Highlands, and Union County, including Raton and Clayton, based on webcams, satellite imagery trends, and recent surface weather observations.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Patchy fog and areas of low clouds will afflict much of the area east of the central mountain chain until mid morning, except until mid day on the far east central and southeast plains. Apart from a few isolated storms between Ruidoso and Roswell this afternoon, drier and warmer weather is forecast today through Wednesday as dry west and southwest flow crosses the forecast area. High temperatures will climb near 1991-2020 averages areawide starting today, then as much as 11 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

During the latter half of the week, models continue to depict an upper level low pressure system stalling over the Pacific NW coast. It will draw a rich return flow of Gulf moisture into the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will then develop over southern areas Thursday afternoon, areawide Thursday night through Friday, then along and west of the central mountain chain Friday night, as a couple of shortwave troughs cross NM in succession from the southwest.

The first shortwave trough will ingest moisture from Tropical Storm Vance, which is currently churning off the southwest coast of Mexico. It will produce the greatest coverage of showers and storms over the southeast and far eastern plains of NM Thursday night through Friday. GEFS PWATs peak Thursday night into Friday and around 180-250 percent of normal, which is quite high. Actual PWATs are only forecast to vary from 0.50-1.00" from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. The most likely rain amount Thursday night through Friday along and southeast of a line from Ruidoso to Tucumcari is forecast to vary around 0.10-1.0", but NBM 90TH Percentile QPF suggests a few places will accumulate over 1.5" of rain, except over 2" along and southeast of a line from Roswell to Clovis.

The second shortwave trough will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over central and western parts of the forecast area Friday afternoon through Friday night. With another nice tap of subtropical moisture, rain with this southwesterly upslope flow event will favor locations along and west of the central mountain chain. The most likely rain amount will be under a quarter inch, except up to a half inch in the southwest mountains. NBM 90th Percentile QPF suggests locally heavier amounts over a half inch, except over 1.5" in the southwest mountains. Temperatures at 700 mb will drop between +1 and +3 Friday night, enabling some snow accumulation above 10K FT in elevation.

Models are now coming into somewhat better agreement on the track, depth, and timing of a colder storm system with a strong tap of Pacific moisture that will bring widespread, westerly upslope flow, precipitation to the forecast area late Saturday night through Monday, and potentially Tuesday in the east. Widespread wetting precip looks increasingly likely along and west of the central mountain chain during the latter half of the weekend into early next week with mountain locations potentially accumulating 1-3" of rain and liquid equivalent precipitation. Models vary on the track of an upper level low pressure system that will dive southeastward across CO or NM Monday, but even a northerly track across CO should enable a few to several inches of snow accumulation, at least in NM's northern mountains. A more southerly track over NM would produce widespread mountain snow, and potentially some highlands snow as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Areas of fog are forecast east of the central mountain chain until mid morning. Less coverage of patchy fog will be found along and west of the central mountain chain. Otherwise, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return this afternoon between Ruidoso and Roswell.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The main fire weather concern will be erratic thunderstorm outflow during the latter half of the week and over the weekend. After pockets of poor ventilation through mid week, poor ventilation will become widespread Friday through Sunday. The potential exists for wintry precipitation in the mountains and in some highlands locations Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 61 29 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 61 37 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 65 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 64 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 66 31 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 67 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 66 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 64 35 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 74 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 54 31 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 38 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 37 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 51 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 56 21 57 21 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 61 29 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 63 32 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 66 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 46 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 45 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 71 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 70 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 69 43 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 70 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 73 48 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 41 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 42 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 64 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 41 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 42 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 49 71 49 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 64 44 67 44 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 63 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 67 34 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 70 32 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 65 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 69 46 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 67 38 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 73 47 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 74 51 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 52 76 52 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 73 51 77 52 / 5 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 50 74 49 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 71 50 75 52 / 20 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 72 45 76 47 / 20 5 0 0 Elk............................. 70 44 73 46 / 20 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NMZ227-228- 230.