textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms over portions of western NM today.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A remnant MCV is drifting north across Grants, NM this afternoon with radar showing storms blossoming on the outer periphery of the circulation. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level high centered near southern CO with a large, dry upper level airmass spreading across southern and eastern NM. The 18Z PWAT at KABQ was down to 1.15", H5 temps warmed to near -3C, and steering flow veered more southerly. 12Z guidance is in good agreement now that today and tonight will feature less storm coverage than recent days. The focus will remain over northern and western NM with slow and erratic storm motions. There is still a moderate to high chance of flash flooding over western NM from any stronger cells given the recent stretch of heavy rainfall. The 12Z suite of QPF guidance also shows cells with smaller footprints between 0.50 and 1.50". Low temps tonight will be warm again with lots of 60s and 70s.

The H5 high center will drift southward into northern NM Monday with little change to storm coverage. PWATs will remain >1" areawide with typical terrain-driven storms producing locally heavy rainfall over western and northern NM. A convective cluster over eastern CO on the NAM12 Monday evening looks to force a large convective outflow into northeast NM late Monday night. This may become a player for storms on Tuesday. Meanwhile, max temps Monday will trend hotter for the entire area and several zones now have a Heat Advisory, including the ABQ metro.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tuesday appears to be the next uptick in storm coverage, especially northeast NM where a remnant convective outflow boundary may become draped along the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Confidence is only moderate since the only noteworthy change is the surface boundary. H5 temps remain close to -3C with the 597dm high center near northern NM. PWATs will remain >1" so locally heavy rainfall is likely wherever cells do form. It will stay hot as well with more Heat Advisories likely for a few zones Tuesday.

For Wednesday thru Saturday, the upper level high center continues drifting west across northern NM with a slight decrease in forecast PWATs noted at KABQ. Otherwise, it will remain hot with an extended period of Heat Advisories for at least a few zones each day. Storm coverage will vary from day to day with slight changes in steering flow across the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

SHRA/TS will develop over the central and western high terrain thru 3pm then move erratically into nearby lowlands thru this evening. Storm coverage will be less than recent days but direct hits will still be capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and frequent lightning. Lingering mid level cigs overnight will give way to clear skies Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Patchy dry fuels across the region may still lead to new fire starts from lightning strikes. A strong monsoon high will meander west over northern NM this week and allow temperatures to trend hotter areawide. The focus for locally heavy rainfall will be over the northern and western high terrain. Small rainfall footprints of 1 to 2" may create flash flooding, especially near burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 68 98 68 99 / 30 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 55 95 55 96 / 30 20 10 20 Cuba............................ 61 92 62 93 / 20 10 10 20 Gallup.......................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 10 10 20 El Morro........................ 59 87 59 88 / 20 20 20 50 Grants.......................... 62 92 63 93 / 20 20 20 40 Quemado......................... 61 88 61 89 / 20 20 20 60 Magdalena....................... 66 91 68 91 / 10 20 20 30 Datil........................... 62 87 64 87 / 20 20 30 50 Reserve......................... 59 94 60 95 / 20 40 20 70 Glenwood........................ 63 98 64 99 / 20 30 20 50 Chama........................... 54 87 54 87 / 20 40 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 68 93 69 92 / 30 30 20 50 Pecos........................... 62 93 63 92 / 10 20 20 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 90 60 88 / 40 40 30 60 Red River....................... 48 85 49 85 / 40 50 40 80 Angel Fire...................... 52 86 52 84 / 30 40 30 80 Taos............................ 60 93 60 92 / 30 20 30 50 Mora............................ 59 91 60 88 / 20 30 30 80 Espanola........................ 68 100 68 99 / 30 10 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 67 93 68 94 / 10 10 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 97 66 98 / 10 5 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 100 72 100 / 10 5 10 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 100 71 100 / 10 5 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 103 69 102 / 10 5 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 101 72 101 / 10 5 10 10 Belen........................... 69 102 70 102 / 10 5 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 71 102 72 102 / 10 5 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 67 102 68 101 / 10 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 71 103 72 102 / 10 5 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 69 102 70 101 / 10 5 10 10 Placitas........................ 70 98 71 98 / 10 5 10 30 Rio Rancho...................... 70 101 71 101 / 10 5 10 20 Socorro......................... 73 103 75 104 / 5 5 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 94 68 92 / 10 5 20 50 Tijeras......................... 64 97 65 96 / 10 5 20 50 Edgewood........................ 61 98 63 96 / 10 10 20 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 97 60 96 / 5 10 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 62 92 62 91 / 5 20 30 60 Mountainair..................... 61 96 62 95 / 5 20 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 64 94 65 94 / 0 10 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 70 97 71 98 / 5 10 5 30 Ruidoso......................... 65 90 66 91 / 5 30 5 30 Capulin......................... 61 94 60 89 / 10 20 40 70 Raton........................... 60 100 61 95 / 20 20 40 80 Springer........................ 62 101 62 96 / 10 10 40 60 Las Vegas....................... 61 96 63 91 / 10 20 20 50 Clayton......................... 70 103 69 99 / 5 0 20 20 Roy............................. 66 98 66 95 / 10 5 20 20 Conchas......................... 71 106 70 103 / 10 0 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 102 68 99 / 5 0 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 73 106 72 105 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 70 105 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 71 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 74 106 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 69 101 70 100 / 0 5 5 5 Elk............................. 65 98 67 97 / 5 10 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ217-219-221- 228-231-232-234>238.

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205-206-208.