textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Widespread storms each day this week will focus over western New Mexico, with lesser coverage across the east. Small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding may occur with stronger storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

- There is a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars through Thursday, then at least a moderate risk from Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a quite active synoptic pattern over the western CONUS. The main feature is the commanding H5 ridge over the central plains as well as the secondary high that continues to develop over the northern Rockies in Wyoming and Montana. There has been a steady stream of moisture clockwise around these circulations, with the deepest moisture being advected meridionally from northern Mexico into Utah and Idaho. Meanwhile, an easterly wave over west Texas has begun to produce robust convection over the Hill Country of Texas tonight. This convection will gradually make its way northwestward, but the subsidence out ahead of it will help to limit convective activity across the eastern third of New Mexico today. Storms today will once again focus along and west of the central mountain chain, although coverage will be higher compared to Tuesday since the shortwave skirting northern NM will be stronger and moisture content will be slightly higher as well. Localized pockets of 1"+ are likely today, with the best chance along the west slopes of mtn ranges where storms will tend to regenerate. These storms will cluster together in west-central NM during the evening hours as rainfall intensity trends lower. While an instance or two of flash flooding is to be expected, widespread impacts are unlikely and much of this rainfall will be welcomed across central and western NM.

The center of the easterly wave will work its way into far west Texas on Thursday. Dry air will rotate into the circulation from the northeast, which will translate to a downtick in coverage in central NM. Western NM will be very similar to the previous days with widespread storms developing over the high terrain, moving into the lower elevations from the mid-afternoon onwards. An instance of flash flooding or two remains on the table given the increasingly efficient rainfall rates, but the soil will take a while to saturate and become vulnerable to flash flooding. Soil moisture percentile rankings show that much of western and northern NM is below the 10th percentile for mid-July, with the northwest corner of the state below the 1st percentile.

The extensive cloud coverage and falling 500 mb heights will combine to make Thursday the coolest day of the week in many areas, with highs struggling to reach 90F, even in lower elevation locations like Albuquerque, Farmington, and Roswell.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The easterly wave will stall over far west Texas on Friday, eventually filling and dissipating. At the same time, the secondary ridge currently over Wyoming will shift southward over the Four Corners and strengthen. Moisture will continue coming up from the south, with the deepest sub-tropical moisture over western NM. Despite the southerly shift in the high, storm motions should trend even faster late week into the weekend over the southern half of New Mexico, with slower and erratic motions near the Colorado border. With repeated rounds of storms, soils will slowly saturate, including over recent burn scars where the flash flood risk will be greatest.

Ensemble guidance shows that the center of the H5 high will migrate southeast towards the TX Panhandle early next week, then potentially setting up right over central NM mid to late week. This will continue to favor at least scattered storms each day next week, with the highest rain chances in western NM where moisture will be greatest (PWATs 120-150% of normal).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Very patchy low clouds are developing early this morning across eastern NM as a result of the moist upslope flow. These clouds should continue to fill in through around 14Z before breaking up mid-morning. Widespread showers and storms are expected today, developing over the high terrain as early as 18Z and moving SW at 5 to 10 knots into the lower elevations during the afternoon and evening. Showers with embedded storms will likely linger across the western half of the state through around 09Z.

Storms over the Sandia mountains will likely send a strong outflow boundary through Tijeras Canyon again today. An short duration AWW for 35kt+ gusts will likely be needed for KABQ from roughly 23Z to 02Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. An active monsoon pattern will bring scattered to widespread showers to much of central and northern NM each of the next several days, with the greatest coverage over western NM and the lowest coverage in the eastern plains. Storms will generally occur during the afternoon and evening hours, but showers with a few embedded storms may linger into the overnight hours across western NM. Storms today through Friday will generally move from northeast to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming east to west late week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 62 90 62 / 30 70 30 50 Dulce........................... 89 47 86 48 / 80 60 60 60 Cuba............................ 85 54 82 55 / 60 60 40 40 Gallup.......................... 89 53 84 52 / 60 80 40 70 El Morro........................ 84 54 79 54 / 70 80 50 60 Grants.......................... 88 54 83 55 / 70 70 40 40 Quemado......................... 84 56 79 55 / 80 80 60 60 Magdalena....................... 84 61 81 61 / 40 60 30 20 Datil........................... 81 57 77 57 / 70 80 40 40 Reserve......................... 87 54 83 53 / 80 70 60 40 Glenwood........................ 90 56 87 54 / 80 50 60 40 Chama........................... 81 47 78 47 / 80 70 70 50 Los Alamos...................... 82 60 81 61 / 70 50 40 30 Pecos........................... 80 52 80 53 / 90 30 40 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 54 79 54 / 70 60 60 40 Red River....................... 71 45 71 45 / 80 50 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 39 75 40 / 80 40 70 30 Taos............................ 83 50 81 50 / 70 50 50 40 Mora............................ 76 50 77 51 / 80 30 50 30 Espanola........................ 90 59 88 59 / 60 40 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 82 59 81 60 / 60 40 40 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 57 85 57 / 60 40 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 65 88 66 / 50 40 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 62 89 63 / 40 40 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 62 91 62 / 30 40 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 65 90 65 / 40 50 20 20 Belen........................... 93 61 91 61 / 20 40 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 93 64 91 64 / 50 40 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 92 59 90 59 / 30 40 20 30 Corrales........................ 93 64 91 64 / 40 50 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 92 61 90 62 / 30 40 20 30 Placitas........................ 88 64 87 64 / 50 40 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 92 64 90 64 / 40 50 20 30 Socorro......................... 95 67 92 67 / 20 40 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 58 83 59 / 60 40 40 20 Tijeras......................... 85 58 84 59 / 60 40 30 30 Edgewood........................ 85 55 85 55 / 60 30 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 52 86 52 / 50 30 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 80 53 80 54 / 50 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 85 55 84 55 / 40 30 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 83 56 83 56 / 40 20 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 86 61 85 61 / 20 5 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 78 54 77 54 / 20 5 30 10 Capulin......................... 78 52 79 52 / 10 5 10 5 Raton........................... 83 52 84 52 / 20 5 10 5 Springer........................ 83 54 85 54 / 30 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 53 80 54 / 60 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 86 60 87 61 / 0 5 5 0 Roy............................. 81 58 82 57 / 10 5 5 5 Conchas......................... 90 62 90 62 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 85 60 85 60 / 10 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 90 62 90 62 / 0 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 10 5 Portales........................ 89 61 88 61 / 0 0 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 89 62 89 62 / 0 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 90 65 88 64 / 5 5 10 20 Picacho......................... 85 59 84 58 / 5 5 10 10 Elk............................. 83 55 82 54 / 10 5 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.