textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Record heat continues through today with a minor risk of heat- related illness for sensitive groups.

- Risk for rapid fire spread along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon. Dry lightning from virga and dry thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico this weekend may cause new fire starts.

- Hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles push across eastern New Mexico tonight before moving through the canyon gaps of the central mountain chain Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A shortwave trough currently over the Mojave desert will trek eastward today, moving over northern New Mexico this afternoon. Winds associated with this trough are not particularly strong, but it will be enough to create a strong breeze and high fire danger across most of northern and eastern NM. Modest cold air advection in the wake of a weak Pacific front will cool temps down 5 to 10 degrees across eastern New Mexico, but the downsloping breeze in central and eastern areas will keep highs close to yesterday's record shattering values. Winds turning around to the west/northwest in the late afternoon in Roswell will likely be enough to push temperatures up near the triple digit mark in what could be the earliest 100-degree day on record by nearly a month.

A potent backdoor front associated with a strong jet streak over the upper plains will race southward down the high plains tomorrow, reaching the northeastern corner of New Mexico by the early evening. Given the very low soil moisture, dust is likely to get kicked up along the leading edge of the front as it pushes southward. Given the strength of the pressure gradient, a High Wind Watch was issued for far eastern NM along the TX border. The front will reach the central mountain chain by early Friday morning, pushing through the gaps throughout the morning into the afternoon hours. The timing of the frontal passage is not optimal for strong wind gusts in Albuquerque, however the modest westerly flow aloft will not do much to oppose the strong pressure and density gradient at the surface. For this reason, a High Wind Watch was also issued for the Albuquerque metro area, with the strongest winds occurring below gaps in the central mountain chain, including Tijeras Canyon.

Cooler, more moist air will continue pushing in from the west Friday, helping to mitigate fire weather concerns. Gap winds may increase again briefly Friday evening, before eventually trending weaker Friday night as the pressure gradient washes out. Low temps Saturday morning will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler than Friday morning, with a freeze likely for many areas where blooming is already occurring due to the record warmth.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Temperatures will moderate this weekend as quasi-zonal flow develops overhead. Mid-level moisture will be advected in from the southwest on Sunday, resulting in the development of isolated high-based showers and storms across western New Mexico. 700mb dewpoint depressions are 10 to 15C and sfc relative humidities dropping below 20% indicates that wetting rainfall is unlikely, with most precipitation evaporating before it reaches the ground. LIs slightly below 0C suggest the potential for a few lightning strikes as well, although relatively dense cloud cover could limit sfc heating and therefore instability enough to restrict the coverage of lightning. PWATs will trend much higher (up to 300% above normal), favoring slightly wetter showers and storms on Monday.

The subtropical jet will strengthen over the desert southwest early to mid-next week. Atmospheric moisture levels and temperatures will both remain above seasonal normals during this period, but wetting precipitation will still be isolated given the dry boundary layer. Winds will trend stronger during this period as well, with the potential for even stronger winds near gusty virga showers that will favor western and northern NM. Stronger jet forcing later in the week could bring more appreciable precipitation to the northern mountains during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, although model uncertainty remains high in this increasingly progressive synoptic pattern. The ENS and GEPS both show a longwave trough developing over the Intermountain West late next week, favoring cooler and wetter weather. The GEFS continues to show quasi-zonal flow with lower chances of precipitation and continued bouts of wind with jet streaks associated with the subtropical jet stream.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty west winds will develop in most areas around 18Z, with winds shifting to the northwest this evening. A potent backdoor cold front will enter the northeast plains around 03Z this evening, pushing south and eastward overnight. A brief period of reduced visibility in blowing dust may occur with the frontal passage. The front will reach the central mountain chain around 09Z, creating gusty gap winds at both KABQ and KSAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Westerly winds will trend stronger today, creating widespread critical fire weather conditions throughout central and eastern NM and elevated to near-critical conditions from the Middle Rio Grande Valley westward. Record warmth combined with humidities as low as 4% and wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will create dangerous fire weather today, with the highest fire danger in a corridor stretching from Clines Corners to Tucumcari where winds will be strongest. Furthermore, the exceptionally warm and dry conditions recently have increased ERCs to record values for the date in many areas, with fuels behaving more like they typically would in late May/early June. A potent backdoor front will enter from the northeast this evening, rushing south and east through the night into Friday. Strong northeast to east wind gusts up to 60 mph are likely in the eastern plains and through the gaps of the central mountain chain, but higher humidities and cooler temps will be ushered in the wake of the frontal passage.

Temperatures moderate this weekend as mid-level moisture is advected in from the southwest. This will fuel the development of high-based virga showers and dry storms in the western half of the state Sunday afternoon. Dry lightning is a concern given that sfc humidities will likely be below 25% and since fuels are very dry. Slightly wetter showers and storms are forecast for the same areas Monday, but wetting precipitation will still be spotty at best. Winds trend stronger mid-next week. Isolated to scattered showers will favor northern areas during this period, with the best chance for appreciable precipitation in the Tusas Mountains.

CLIMATE

Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Numerous record highs were broken, if not shattered, around the area yesterday (March 25). Albuquerque (90F), Clayton (90F), and Roswell (98F) all broke record highs by at least 5F. Many areas are forecast to break record highs again today by several degrees.

According to probabilistic guidance from the NBM, Roswell has a 82% chance to reach 100F today. This would be the earliest 100-degree day ever by nearly a month (April 22). For reference, the average first 100-degree day in Roswell is June 8th. Albuquerque will flirt with the 90-degree mark again today. Today will be the last day with record heat since temperatures tumble Friday behind a potent cold front. However, record highs will be threatened once again on Sunday and Monday in eastern New Mexico.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 81 45 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 78 33 73 29 / 0 0 10 5 Cuba............................ 77 42 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 77 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 75 41 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 80 37 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 77 40 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 82 46 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 77 43 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 85 37 80 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 42 85 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 72 36 66 27 / 0 0 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 78 48 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 79 40 57 28 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 40 61 28 / 0 0 20 0 Red River....................... 70 29 48 22 / 0 0 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 72 25 49 21 / 0 0 20 5 Taos............................ 80 35 63 26 / 0 0 10 0 Mora............................ 80 37 52 25 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 86 42 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 80 46 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 42 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 51 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 48 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 47 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 50 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 90 42 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 88 48 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 90 41 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 90 48 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 90 43 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 85 50 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 88 49 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 93 49 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 45 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 83 43 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 83 41 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 83 38 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 80 39 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 83 41 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 83 43 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 86 48 60 35 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 81 42 52 31 / 0 0 10 0 Capulin......................... 83 29 46 28 / 0 5 10 0 Raton........................... 86 34 51 26 / 0 5 10 0 Springer........................ 88 37 53 28 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 83 38 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 93 36 52 33 / 0 5 5 0 Roy............................. 90 39 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 96 44 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 43 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 98 42 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 97 43 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 98 43 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 97 43 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 100 50 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 93 44 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 92 41 56 32 / 0 0 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121>126.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for NMZ230-234>236.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ219.