textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidity, and dry vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread Thursday, Friday, and again this weekend across eastern and portions of central NM.

- A strong backdoor cold front will bring notably cooler and brisk conditions to eastern NM Sunday into Monday.

- Strong high pressure will move over the region going into the middle of next week, with high temperatures likely challenging daily and March records.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will become more apparent over the Land of Enchantment again today into Friday while lee-side surface troughs develop each afternoon. This will quickly cause winds to veer in direction and turn gusty with southwesterly components reigning in the eastern plains of the state while a west northwesterly one sets up elsewhere. The 700 mb (~10kft MSL) flow will serve as a reasonable proxy for gust potential today and Friday with speeds of 20 to 35 kt being common this afternoon during peak mixing. A couple of localized gusts to 45 to perhaps 50 mph are still not out of the question over the central highlands (eastern Torrance and western Guadalupe counties) this afternoon. The 700 mb wind speeds actually surge up overnight over the Sangre de Cristos (40-50 kt per the NAM), so some nocturnal gusts cannot be ruled out there tonight, but speeds will subside into the day Friday when speeds of 15 to 30 kt will be more commonplace. This will raise fire danger concerns, especially today, given the stronger gust potential. In addition, the veering wind directions and retreating backdoor front will lead to warmer temperatures today and Friday with the biggest gains coming in the eastern plains today. All zones within northern and central NM will run 5 to 15 degrees above normal today, creeping close to 20 degrees above in a few eastern zones on Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

After staying over the far northern ConUS on Friday, the polar jet will slowly dip into the central Rockies Saturday and into the southern plains Saturday night into early Sunday. This deepening trough will cause the west northwesterlies to increase aloft over NM while the lee-side surface cyclone deepens over eastern CO, invoking breezy to windy conditions over much of the CWA Saturday. Some cirrus look to increase as high level moisture rounds the base of the trough, but this does not look to stunt our warming trend any with daytime highs still exceeding normalcy by 10 to 20 degrees Saturday.

As the trough moves into the plains early Sunday, it will push in a Pacific and then a backdoor segment of a cold front. The boundary layer will be parched ahead of and behind these frontal boundaries with surface dewpoints falling to single digits and sub-zero readings (deg F), and this will preclude the development of any low clouds, much less any precipitation. Winds will be the primary impact with gusty conditions persisting along ridgetops and exposed high slopes overnight into Sunday morning before a strong northerly component develops during the daytime. Significant isobaric packing is modeled, and gusts will have the potential to approach hazardous speeds of 50 mph and locally closer to 60 mph, especially over the northern and central mountains/highlands. Cool air advection is modeled to be prominent and significant, but only the northeastern quadrant of NM is projected to drop below normal for Sunday's daytime highs while most remaining zones retain above average warmth.

A ~1032 mb surface high is then progged to settle over the OK/TX panhandles, pushing an east wind into the Rio Grande valley Sunday evening while spreading more below normal temperatures (just by 5 to 10 degrees) across additional eastern plains zones on Monday. A stubborn mid level speed max (700 mb speeds between 25 to 40 kt) will keep gusty conditions threatening many northwestern to possibly central zones on Monday with much of the wind field over the plains getting disrupted by the aforementioned backdoor front.

The pattern over the southwestern states will then be dominated by an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure Tuesday through the end of next week. NAEFS ensembles indicate heights and temperatures of 3 standard deviations above normal, so the potential for a record- breaking stretch of dry, warm weather still remains high. The all- time high temperature for the entire month of March is 85 at KABQ, set back in 1971, and this still looks to be at risk of falling late next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Visual Flight Rules (VFR) conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail across northern and central New Mexico through tonight. The main aviation weather hazard will be gusty winds with many locations observing gusts of 25 to 35 kt and perhaps slightly stronger over the central highlands (KCQC-KSXU) this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Breezy to windy, and much warmer than average, conditions will continue to plague the forecast, posing high concerns for critical fire weather, sublimation of an already abysmal snow pack, and a continued curing of fine fuels. Today's most critical areas will reside across eastern zones where gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be most likely with locally higher speeds over the central highlands. The Red Flag Warning will remain unaltered and still in effect for the central/northeast highlands to the east central to northeastern plains. Temperatures will be surging up in these areas with veering wind directions that will be moving downslope, and surface dewpoints are in spring-like form, low and contributing to widespread single digit humidity values by the afternoon.

A reduction in the speed max aloft will lead to slightly lower speeds at the surface on Friday, but the lee-side surface trough will keep things gusty, especially over the central highlands. With gusts of 35 mph forecast there (Zone 125), have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday.

The weekend is also shaping up to be another critical period, primarily from the central/northeastern highlands to the adjacent eastern plains on Saturday before spreading northwestward on Sunday, even with several degrees of cooling associated with a notable frontal passage on Sunday. Critical conditions could linger into central to northwestern zones into Monday, assuming winds aloft stay strong as currently modeled.

A stout ridge of high pressure will then swell over southwestern states, cranking temperatures well above normal and above many daily, if not monthly records. Fortunately, winds aloft would be lighter within the ridge as the polar jet gets deflected far to the north, but moderate daily breeziness will still linger with extremely low afternoon humidity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 34 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 66 24 68 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 64 31 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 69 26 72 29 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 65 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 28 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 67 32 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 69 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 67 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 73 31 77 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 76 35 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 58 26 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 64 39 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 65 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 33 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 52 29 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 58 21 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 65 25 69 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 66 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 72 33 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 66 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 68 36 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 44 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 40 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 37 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 40 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 75 33 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 74 39 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 75 32 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 75 39 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 75 34 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 68 42 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 74 40 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 77 40 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 65 41 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 66 40 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 67 38 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 33 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 64 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 68 37 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 37 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 42 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 42 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 33 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 71 30 75 31 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 72 31 76 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 69 34 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 75 41 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 36 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 80 36 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 41 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 38 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 76 42 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 75 41 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 79 41 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 78 42 87 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 76 43 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 39 80 43 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ125.