textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through the end of this weekend into early next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly over central, western, and northern areas. - Above normal high temperatures will continue into week across eastern New Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A potent west coast trough is pulling a monsoon moisture plume north over the region, with no real obvious connection to Hurricane Marie in the far eastern Pacific per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. PWATs are already above the 90th percentile over the area and are forecast to challenge record values today, leading to an increase in convective coverage and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. The latest CAMs favor the western and southern mountains for locally heavy rainfall this afternoon/evening and there is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso. Further east across the eastern plains of NM, there is a continued moderate heat risk as that area remains more influenced by the upper high as it builds westward into the US Southern Plains. Saturday will be similar and slightly warmer across central and western NM as the upper high builds a further west into the region. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso Saturday, but with forecast lighter steering flow the relative threat is higher than today's. lighter forecast

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Sunday will be similar to Saturday and the threat for locally heavy rainfall will focus west of the central mountain chain, especially across the southwest mountains where a Flash Flood Watch may be required pending soil conditions from the previous two day's rounds of rainfall. The latest medium range model solutions are showing less spread going into next week and are forecasting a sprawling upper high to dominate most of the southern US, with NM and the Desert SW on the western periphery of the circulation. The orientation of the ridge axis will favor the western and northern mountains of NM for daily rounds of convection, but a gradual drying of the atmosphere is forecast from mid through late next week as the monsoon moisture plume shifts west into AZ. This all adds up to continued above average temperatures across eastern and portions of central NM, with a moderate heat risk across the eastern plains. Daily rounds for storms from mid through late week will become less rainfall productive as the stubborn upper high remains centered over the US Southern Plains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although with low probabilities for MVFR conditions in scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening. Winds will generally be light, but strong/erratic gusts are likely in/near showers and storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A monsoon moisture plume developing over the region will result in higher humidity and chances for wetting storms going through the weekend, favoring central and western NM. Above average temperatures will persist across eastern NM, more directly under the influence of an upper high building west into the US Southern Plains. A slow drying of the atmosphere is forecast from mid through late next week as the upper high dominates over the region, with above average temperatures persisting across eastern NM. Winds will generally be light through the period, except for strong and erratic gusts from showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 81 59 84 61 / 10 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 48 85 49 / 20 30 10 0 Cuba............................ 77 56 81 57 / 40 30 10 0 Gallup.......................... 76 52 81 55 / 30 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 72 51 78 54 / 40 20 20 0 Grants.......................... 76 54 82 57 / 60 30 20 0 Quemado......................... 73 54 79 57 / 60 30 30 5 Magdalena....................... 78 59 82 62 / 60 30 40 20 Datil........................... 73 54 78 57 / 70 30 40 10 Reserve......................... 77 55 86 57 / 40 20 40 0 Glenwood........................ 81 58 92 61 / 30 20 30 5 Chama........................... 75 50 79 51 / 20 30 30 0 Los Alamos...................... 80 59 83 62 / 30 30 40 10 Pecos........................... 81 57 85 58 / 30 30 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 53 82 56 / 10 30 30 5 Red River....................... 77 45 76 43 / 20 30 50 5 Angel Fire...................... 77 42 78 41 / 30 40 60 5 Taos............................ 83 54 85 54 / 10 30 30 5 Mora............................ 81 53 82 54 / 40 30 60 20 Espanola........................ 86 60 90 61 / 20 30 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 82 58 85 63 / 20 30 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 60 88 61 / 20 40 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 64 89 68 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 65 90 67 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 65 92 66 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 66 90 68 / 20 20 10 20 Belen........................... 88 63 91 64 / 20 10 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 88 65 91 67 / 20 20 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 88 63 91 63 / 10 20 10 20 Corrales........................ 87 65 91 67 / 20 20 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 88 64 91 65 / 10 20 10 20 Placitas........................ 85 63 88 66 / 10 20 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 86 65 90 67 / 20 20 10 20 Socorro......................... 89 67 94 69 / 20 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 80 59 82 61 / 20 30 20 20 Tijeras......................... 83 60 86 62 / 20 30 30 20 Edgewood........................ 83 57 87 58 / 30 40 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 56 88 56 / 30 40 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 82 58 85 59 / 30 30 40 30 Mountainair..................... 82 58 85 58 / 30 20 40 30 Gran Quivira.................... 84 58 86 59 / 30 20 40 30 Carrizozo....................... 86 63 88 64 / 30 20 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 79 58 79 58 / 40 10 70 20 Capulin......................... 87 58 86 57 / 20 30 30 10 Raton........................... 89 56 89 56 / 30 30 30 5 Springer........................ 92 56 91 56 / 30 30 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 85 56 86 57 / 30 30 40 20 Clayton......................... 95 66 94 66 / 10 20 20 30 Roy............................. 91 61 90 61 / 10 30 10 20 Conchas......................... 98 67 98 67 / 10 30 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 94 65 93 65 / 20 20 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 99 69 98 68 / 20 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 97 68 97 68 / 20 10 20 20 Portales........................ 97 68 98 68 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 98 68 98 68 / 20 10 5 20 Roswell......................... 100 70 99 70 / 20 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 91 64 92 63 / 40 10 30 10 Elk............................. 87 60 89 59 / 40 10 50 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.