textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk remains across much of New Mexico, especially the Rio Grande Valley and Four Corners area. Record high temperatures are expected today over central and western New Mexico.

- Limited afternoon thunderstorm activity today slowly increases through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to parts of central and western New Mexico mid to late week.

- Smoke from wildfires across the western United States may continue to impact air quality across parts of New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

00Z RAOBs showed the H5 ridge centered near Gallup, NM with heights lowering closer to 596dm. Surface dewpoints have increased into the upper 30s and 40s across northern and central NM with a few pockets in the low 50s in the Rio Grande Valley. 06Z satellite blended PWATs have trended above 0.85" over much of NM. A slight uptick in storm coverage is expected today with slightly deeper moisture, improving CAPE, and increasing mid level deformation/stretching focused along the central mt chain. Rainfall amounts will trend a little heavier as REFS/HREF LPMM QPF shows values >0.50" from some of the stronger cells. Storm motions will still drift erratically south and west off the high terrain into nearby valleys and lowlands thru the late afternoon and evening. Strong downburst wind gusts >45mph are still expected with the stronger cells and more wildfire starts are possible from lightning strikes in dry fuels. Confidence on max temps is lower than recent days but readings were close enough to issue one more round of Heat Advisories for parts of central and western NM.

Convection from today will help to deepen moisture a little more for Tuesday with another uptick in storm coverage expected. There isn't a great deal of change noted with the overall pattern as a 596dm H5 high center remains centered over north-central NM. Steering flow will still be a slow and erratic drift toward the south and west. The 00Z CAMs showed even greater instability over the region with QPF potential rising above 0.75" from the stronger cells. The 00Z NAM12 indicated showers and storms may persist well into Tuesday night as a subtle 700mb speed max or MCV feature shifts south thru west-central NM. Max temps Tuesday will trend a couple degrees cooler but still be very hot for mid August (5-10F above normal).

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A well-defined pattern shift begins by Wednesday as changes in the atmospheric circulation across the Pacific Ocean begins to impact the monsoon plume over the southwest CONUS. An upper level trough will deepen along the west coast and help to force the monsoon high east into TX. 700-500mb layer flow will become more southerly over AZ and NM and allow rich monsoon moisture to surge north into the area. Models have been consistent and in good agreement that a convective disturbance will lift slowly north into the monsoon plume from Wednesday thru Friday. Chances are increasing for more widespread showers and storms over the area with forecast PWATs supportive of heavy rainfall for parts of the area. This rich monsoon pattern may continue Saturday and Sunday with an upper level trough persisting along the U.S. West Coast. Forecast confidence is increasing but still guarded given the overall spotty nature of precip this summer and persistent heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

SHRA/TS will develop over the higher terrain of northern and western NM between 12pm and 3pm then move erratically south and west into nearby lowlands thru sunset. Strong outflow wind gusts >40KT, brief rain, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with the stronger cells. Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA are likely to persist west of the Rio Grande Valley thru 3am. Smoke from the Frijoles Fire northeast of KSAF may filter into the area on storm outflows with brief vsby reductions later today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Very hot and dry conditions will continue today with minimum humidity falling below 15% over parts of northern and western NM. Winds will remain light outside of strong thunderstorm outflows and wetting rainfall footprints will still be small. The main concern is wildfire starts from lightning strikes in dry fuels. The coverage of showers and storms is likely to trend greater beginning Tuesday with larger footprints of heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. An active monsoon pattern may continue thru the end of the week as high pressure shifts east of NM. Storm motion will also increase and be more south/southwest to north/northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 99 66 97 65 / 0 5 5 20 Dulce........................... 96 54 95 55 / 5 10 40 40 Cuba............................ 94 60 92 59 / 0 20 20 50 Gallup.......................... 92 60 89 59 / 20 30 20 40 El Morro........................ 88 57 85 56 / 50 30 50 40 Grants.......................... 93 60 90 59 / 30 30 40 40 Quemado......................... 89 59 86 58 / 40 40 50 40 Magdalena....................... 91 64 90 63 / 10 20 40 30 Datil........................... 87 59 85 57 / 40 20 50 30 Reserve......................... 95 57 91 57 / 30 20 50 30 Glenwood........................ 99 62 96 62 / 40 20 50 30 Chama........................... 90 54 87 54 / 10 10 50 40 Los Alamos...................... 91 64 89 64 / 30 30 30 40 Pecos........................... 93 59 91 58 / 20 20 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 90 57 88 57 / 10 30 20 40 Red River....................... 86 45 84 47 / 20 20 50 40 Angel Fire...................... 86 43 84 43 / 20 30 60 40 Taos............................ 95 58 92 59 / 10 30 20 30 Mora............................ 90 55 88 55 / 30 20 50 30 Espanola........................ 99 64 97 65 / 10 30 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 94 63 91 61 / 10 20 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 62 93 61 / 10 20 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 69 95 67 / 5 20 10 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 70 97 69 / 5 20 10 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 69 100 68 / 0 20 10 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 70 98 68 / 5 20 10 50 Belen........................... 100 68 99 67 / 0 10 10 40 Bernalillo...................... 102 68 99 67 / 5 20 10 50 Bosque Farms.................... 100 66 99 65 / 0 20 10 40 Corrales........................ 102 69 100 67 / 5 20 10 50 Los Lunas....................... 100 66 99 65 / 0 20 10 40 Placitas........................ 96 68 94 66 / 0 20 10 50 Rio Rancho...................... 101 69 99 68 / 5 20 10 50 Socorro......................... 101 71 101 70 / 0 10 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 63 89 61 / 5 20 20 50 Tijeras......................... 94 64 92 63 / 10 20 20 50 Edgewood........................ 96 61 93 60 / 10 20 30 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 58 95 56 / 10 30 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 93 61 91 60 / 10 20 30 40 Mountainair..................... 94 62 93 60 / 5 20 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 92 62 92 60 / 0 10 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 94 68 94 68 / 20 5 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 88 61 88 62 / 10 0 20 5 Capulin......................... 90 59 89 59 / 20 10 30 20 Raton........................... 94 57 93 58 / 20 10 30 20 Springer........................ 97 58 95 58 / 10 10 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 93 58 91 58 / 20 20 40 30 Clayton......................... 98 67 97 66 / 0 5 0 5 Roy............................. 94 64 92 63 / 0 10 5 10 Conchas......................... 101 70 101 69 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 97 67 97 67 / 0 5 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 101 69 102 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 99 67 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 99 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 99 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 100 71 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 96 66 97 67 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 94 62 95 63 / 5 0 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-217-219.