textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 503 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Flash flooding at a heightened risk statewide Monday afternoon through Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture brings widespread and long duration showers and thunderstorms.

- River flooding will be favored Tuesday thru the end of the week from long duration rain event. Low-lying farmland, fields, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding.

- Isolated pockets of fog may return to valley areas of northern and western New Mexico this morning. Low visibility may lead to locally difficult travel.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 109 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Today sees a second day to dry out and prep before the upcoming surge of record level monsoonal moisture Monday night through Wednesday night. Broken high cirrus clouds will stream overhead while surface winds stay light as highs climb into the 60s in the mountains, 70s at middle elevations, and 80s across the eastern plains.

Numerical model guidance continues to advertise the first phase of this multi-day monsoon event beginning late Sunday night into Monday morning as a stream of showers with embedded storms beginning SW-NE across AZ and across the Four Corners and Navajo Nation. Much of this will be triggered by already present low level moisture underlying divergent flow aloft southeast of the approaching 567dm H5 closed low over central CA. Strong bulk shear of 50-60kts will allow a few of these fast moving storms to become strong to severe. Although there won't much instability for robust updrafts to really develop. The uncertainty is where this corridor of SW-NE oriented moving showers and storms sets up initially and when it shifts eastward into northwestern NM, anytime b/w Monday morning to Monday evening. While timing of specific features is uncertain, there is high certainty shower and storm coverage expands across the western half of NM Monday night into Tuesday morning. WPC has already issued a Moderate risk for excessive rainfall threatening flash flooding over much of the Four Corners region and Navajo Nation, expanding eastward to the central mountain chain during this time. While storm motions look to be fast, the movement of the SW-NE corridor of storms to the east will be relatively slow. This means storms will have ample opportunity to train repeatedly over the same areas Monday afternoon and night, allowing rain totals to add up across western NM. Storms expand across west-central NM and into the Rio Grande Valley up to the west facing slopes of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon and evening. Flash flooding in poorly drained areas, urban arroyo systems, and recent burn scars will be a main concern. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch will be issued across the western half of the forecast area with this forecast package.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 109 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tuesday morning begins the peak event period for widespread and persistent shower and thunderstorm activity across all of NM. The combination of daily record level PWAT moisture reaching 1.30" at ABQ from the insurgent remnants of Hurricane Polo and the favorable dynamic forcing aloft ahead of the H5 low over western AZ will just about maximize the rainfall production potential for this event. Multiple waves of showers and storms capable of produce heavy rainfall will stream SW-NE across the state. And while showers and storms look to expand and break out across the eastern plains of NM by Monday night and Tuesday morning, the brunt of Hurricane Polo's remnants crossing the southeastern half of NM doesn't look to arrive until Tuesday afternoon or evening. There is some uncertainty still regarding the timing of that specific part of this event. Given the delay for the onset of precipitation and period of most intense rainfall, a second segment of the Flash Flood Watch for areas along and east of the central mountain chain starts Monday evening, with all areas of the Watch lasting at least until Wednesday morning.

Much of the northern half of NM will likely see the Flash Flood Watch extended longer into Wednesday as a dry slot punches in behind the exiting remnants of Hurricane Polo by this time. The H5 low becomes the main player thereafter, centered somewhere over west- central to central NM to start the day. Wrap around moisture, likely forming a TROWAL feature across northeastern NM into southeastern CO will keep showers with embedded storms lasting thru the day Wednesday over these areas. Drier northwesterly flow fills in behind the H5 low as it exits eastward over the TX/OK Panhandles and/or western KS sometime Wednesday evening to Thursday morning. As such, precipitation looks to exit northeastern NM last, perhaps as late as Friday morning.

Uncertainty regarding the overall duration of this event and when rain will end is still relatively high given the complex atmospheric dynamics of the remnants of Hurricane Polo being absorbed into the circulation of the H5 low, or if it gets swung out and ejected out over the Great Plains. Therefore, the residence time of this event over NM still has a range of around 24-hours different between the shortest and longest times.

All told, 24-hr rainfall amounts look to range 1-2 inches each day, with higher amounts upwards of 2-3 inches Tuesday thru Wednesday morning over eastern NM. Event total rainfall amounts look to favor the 2-3 inch range for the western half of the state, and 3-4 inch range over the eastern plains. Locally higher amounts upwards of 4-6 inches cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern NM, or within mountainous areas where orographics will play an additional factor squeezing more moisture out of the atmosphere.

While conditions clear out Friday into next weekend. Impacts are likely to remain across the forecast area in the form of river flooding. The coverage and amount of rain forecast will take time work its way through drainage basins and river systems. Rises at specific locations along rivers may take hours to days after rain has ended to occur. Be vigilant and do not be caught off guard even as the skies clear.

We've had hurricane remnants surge over NM before with less flash flood risk, why is this event different? Many events of hurricane remnants moving over NM in recent years have been on their own and not accompanied with another nearby storm system that was capable of metaphorically squeezing more rain out of it. Therefore, they were mostly light to moderate rain intensities and/or overcast cloud cover with more isolated bouts of heavy rain. This event has that accompanying storm system swinging through from CA, squeezing more moisture out of the remnants of Hurricane Polo. The other factor, is the abundant rainfall New Mexico has seen these past two weeks. This has led to near-record to record level soil moisture inundation over most of the state for late September. This means, the ground has little to no more room to absorb rainfall before runoff begins. All told, these multiple factors are all adding up in the wrong direction to bring a heightened flash flood risk over the state. Be weather aware, be vigilant, have multiple ways of receiving warnings during this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR prevails today with light winds and broken to overcast high cirrus. A few isolated spots this morning could see patchy fog develop. Probabilities for this were too low to include at any TAF site. The leading edge of showers and thunderstorms begins to enter northwestern NM Sunday night toward the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Dry conditions areawide today with light winds. A significant surge of monsoonal moisture arrives Monday through Thursday. Widespread and long duration rain event, peaking Tuesday and Tuesday night, will threaten flash flooding over many areas, notably over recent burn scar areas. Conditions clear west to east Wednesday night through Thursday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 79 56 66 53 / 0 60 80 80 Dulce........................... 75 44 61 42 / 0 40 90 90 Cuba............................ 71 51 61 48 / 0 30 90 90 Gallup.......................... 76 50 66 47 / 0 50 80 80 El Morro........................ 73 49 64 46 / 5 40 90 90 Grants.......................... 76 52 66 49 / 5 30 90 90 Quemado......................... 76 52 69 51 / 5 30 90 90 Magdalena....................... 74 56 69 54 / 0 10 80 90 Datil........................... 73 51 67 50 / 5 20 80 90 Reserve......................... 81 53 76 53 / 5 20 70 90 Glenwood........................ 86 59 81 57 / 5 20 70 90 Chama........................... 68 46 56 44 / 5 30 90 90 Los Alamos...................... 71 54 62 51 / 0 20 90 90 Pecos........................... 74 51 68 50 / 0 10 70 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 50 63 48 / 0 10 80 90 Red River....................... 66 39 57 40 / 5 10 80 90 Angel Fire...................... 69 36 60 41 / 5 10 80 90 Taos............................ 73 46 64 46 / 0 10 80 90 Mora............................ 72 48 66 48 / 0 10 60 80 Espanola........................ 77 52 70 51 / 0 10 80 90 Santa Fe........................ 72 55 65 52 / 0 10 80 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 52 67 51 / 0 10 80 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 58 71 55 / 0 10 80 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 59 70 57 / 0 10 80 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 78 55 71 52 / 0 10 80 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 59 69 57 / 0 10 80 90 Belen........................... 77 57 72 56 / 0 10 70 90 Bernalillo...................... 78 57 70 55 / 0 10 80 90 Bosque Farms.................... 78 55 72 53 / 0 10 80 90 Corrales........................ 79 57 71 56 / 0 10 80 90 Los Lunas....................... 78 57 72 55 / 0 10 80 90 Placitas........................ 75 56 69 55 / 0 10 80 90 Rio Rancho...................... 77 58 70 57 / 0 10 80 90 Socorro......................... 82 61 77 59 / 0 10 70 90 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 54 66 50 / 0 10 70 90 Tijeras......................... 73 56 68 53 / 0 10 80 90 Edgewood........................ 74 52 69 51 / 0 10 70 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 49 72 49 / 0 10 70 90 Clines Corners.................. 72 53 69 51 / 0 10 60 90 Mountainair..................... 73 52 70 51 / 0 10 60 90 Gran Quivira.................... 74 53 71 52 / 0 10 50 90 Carrizozo....................... 77 58 75 57 / 0 10 40 90 Ruidoso......................... 74 51 73 53 / 5 5 40 90 Capulin......................... 74 51 68 51 / 0 5 30 70 Raton........................... 78 50 71 50 / 0 5 50 70 Springer........................ 78 49 73 52 / 0 5 40 80 Las Vegas....................... 74 49 68 51 / 0 10 50 90 Clayton......................... 83 56 76 58 / 0 0 10 80 Roy............................. 77 54 72 54 / 0 5 30 80 Conchas......................... 85 58 82 60 / 0 5 20 90 Santa Rosa...................... 80 57 77 60 / 0 5 30 90 Tucumcari....................... 84 57 83 60 / 0 0 10 80 Clovis.......................... 86 59 86 62 / 0 0 10 80 Portales........................ 86 58 86 63 / 0 0 10 80 Fort Sumner..................... 84 59 82 61 / 0 0 10 90 Roswell......................... 83 58 83 64 / 0 0 5 80 Picacho......................... 82 58 80 59 / 0 5 40 90 Elk............................. 81 55 80 57 / 5 5 40 90

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Monday morning through late Tuesday night for NMZ201>211-213-214-216>221-224>226-241.

Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.