textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- High temperatures continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above average resulting in moderate to major heat risk across much of New Mexico, especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are expected for several days over central and western New Mexico.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

- Smoke from wildfires in Utah, Nevada, and Colorado may continue to impact air quality across northern New Mexico.

UPDATE

Issued at 357 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The Heat Advisory for today was expanded to include the Sandia and Manzano Mountains, with temperatures across much of that zone likely to reach or exceed 95 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 157 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Convection is likely to get going across the high terrain of New Mexico this afternoon, similar to how it has been over the past few afternoons. Storms across the forecast area will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. In northeast and east-central NM, there is a higher chance of strong to severe wind gusts with storms through the afternoon and evening. With steering flow likely to move storms to the south and southeast, storms drifting off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, or developing from a remnant outflow boundary from overnight TX Panhandle storms, will shift into a favorable environment for strong to severe winds. SBCAPE values above 2000 J/kg, LCLs 2-3km AGL, and well-mixed layers beneath the LCLs point to evaporative cooling being able to develop these severe wind gusts. SPC has introduced a Marginal (1/5) Risk across much of northeast and east-central NM, which aligns with our thinking. Storms, in essence, will be scattered in nature to begin the afternoon, with CAMs hinting at the development of a broken MCS feature in the evening hours. This development may work to send strong outflow boundaries further south into southeast NM (as far south as Roswell). Large hail is likely to be a threat as well in the stronger initial updrafts, given high CAPE values forecast in the hail growth zone. A lack of bulk shear though will likely lead these strong hail cores to be few and far between. Lastly for eastern NM, should colliding outflows regenerate storms over the same area(s), localized flash flooding may become a concern. For southern and southwest NM, the main concern with storms will be gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. These storms will be slower moving in nature and in steeper terrain. Sensitive areas across the south and southwest will need to be aware of rainfall amounts throughout the afternoon, especially recent burn scars. There is lower confidence in storms over the Ruidoso area burn scars, but higher confidence in storms near the Sacaton burn scar.

With the high pressure still well placed overhead, hot temperatures remain across the area. Heat Advisories remain in effect for the Farmington, Albuquerque, and Espanola Valley areas. Several other locations are very close to their Heat Advisory criteria, but fall just a few degrees short. Even so, while an Advisory may not be in effect for your location, it will still continue to be hot! Make sure to continue to remain hydrated and to keep taking breaks if outdoors.

In terms of storm coverage, Saturday looks to be a "down" day, with storms remaining mainly along the high terrain in the forecast area. PWATs are forecast to be at their lowest (0.5-0.8"), and this is due to the overall high pressure shifting eastward ever so slightly over the Four Corners, bringing around a bit more subsidence and dry air. There are lower chances for these initial storms to affect lower elevation areas through the evening, but cannot rule out a few outflow boundaries across central NM. The heat also sticks around across the area, but the high pressure is forecast to weekend a decameter or two, which looks to bring down high temperature forecasts a few degrees. Areas in western and central NM will still be right near Heat Advisory criteria, and at this time it looks like at least the Northwest Plateau (Farmington) has the best chance for additional Advisories.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A more robust surge of Monsoon moisture is still favored to enter the Desert Southwest going into next week, and in turn PoPs continue to trend up across the area (mainly western and northern NM). Taking a look at forecast PWAT anomalies for the majority of next week in ensemble clustering, all clusters favor areas in western and northern NM climbing into the 80-90th percentiles in PWATs. Value wise, this brings PWATs near and above an inch, especially going into Wednesday and beyond. This agreement between ensemble clusters shows higher confidence in the atmosphere being richer in moisture, with a better chance of storms across much of the forecast area. The pattern makes sense meteorologically too: a slightly weakening high pressure allowing moisture to seep in underneath and on its slight western periphery. Translating to our forecast: scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear increasingly likely going into the early and middle parts of next week. Exact coverage of storms will likely change as finer details of the pattern become available in short-term model guidance, but this looks to bring some moisture back to areas of the state that surely need it.

On top of more moisture returning to the area, this (along with the high pressure weakening slightly) should allow high temperatures to drop a few degrees, bringing them closer to average. We may still be dealing with Heat Advisories going into the latter half of the weekend for portions of central and western NM, but as several days of a higher PWAT atmosphere settle in, we should see temperatures return closer to normal (high 80s to low 90s, with mid 90s in the lowest elevations) through mid next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the high terrain after 18z today. Brief MVFR visibilities can be expected from any direct hit to terminals. The main concern with storms today are gusty outflow winds up to 30-35kts across a few TAF sites. Storms are expected to form off the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and deliver outflow winds to KSAF after 21z. Storms near the Sandia and Manzano Mountains are likely to give KABQ/AEG gusty east to southeast winds. For central TAF sites, these outflow winds may persist as late as 06-09z. In eastern NM, a cluster of storms is favored to form after 00z, generating several outflow boundaries. These storms are forecast to push towards KROW near and after 03z. Currently, it's most likely that the outflow will get to KROW, with lower confidence in precipitation, however trends will need to be watched.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, though fuels still remain dry and receptive across a good portion of the area (ERCs in the 90th or higher percentiles across much of northern and parts of central NM). Daily thunderstorm chances continue each day across the high terrain, along with the hot and above average temperatures. Storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. There is higher confidence in more precipitation and moisture returning areawide coming into the early to middle parts of next week, focusing on northern and western NM. This will also bring down temperatures a few degrees closer to average. With this though, vent rates and mixing heights will be on a gradual downtrend through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 101 66 100 66 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 99 56 97 56 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 96 60 95 61 / 5 0 5 20 Gallup.......................... 96 59 96 60 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 92 57 91 58 / 5 5 40 10 Grants.......................... 96 60 95 60 / 0 0 10 10 Quemado......................... 92 60 91 60 / 20 10 30 20 Magdalena....................... 92 64 91 64 / 10 20 5 10 Datil........................... 89 58 88 59 / 20 10 20 10 Reserve......................... 97 58 94 58 / 40 10 30 10 Glenwood........................ 100 63 97 63 / 50 10 40 10 Chama........................... 92 54 90 55 / 10 5 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 93 64 91 65 / 10 10 20 20 Pecos........................... 92 57 92 58 / 40 10 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 91 56 90 57 / 20 5 20 20 Red River....................... 82 48 81 49 / 30 0 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 86 41 85 42 / 40 5 30 20 Taos............................ 95 57 94 58 / 20 5 10 20 Mora............................ 89 53 89 55 / 30 10 30 20 Espanola........................ 100 64 99 65 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 94 61 93 62 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 60 95 61 / 20 10 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 100 67 98 69 / 20 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 69 98 70 / 20 10 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 68 101 69 / 10 10 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 68 100 70 / 5 10 0 10 Belen........................... 100 66 100 67 / 5 10 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 102 66 101 68 / 10 10 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 100 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 5 Corrales........................ 102 67 101 69 / 10 10 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 100 65 100 66 / 10 10 0 5 Placitas........................ 98 65 96 67 / 10 10 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 101 68 100 70 / 5 10 0 10 Socorro......................... 102 70 101 71 / 10 20 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 61 92 63 / 30 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 95 62 93 65 / 30 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 96 59 94 62 / 30 20 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 55 95 57 / 30 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 92 59 91 62 / 40 30 10 20 Mountainair..................... 95 59 94 62 / 40 30 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 92 59 91 61 / 40 30 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 65 93 66 / 40 20 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 87 59 86 59 / 40 20 30 10 Capulin......................... 89 58 90 60 / 10 10 20 10 Raton........................... 93 55 94 56 / 20 10 20 20 Springer........................ 95 55 97 56 / 30 10 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 91 56 92 58 / 30 20 20 20 Clayton......................... 97 65 98 68 / 5 10 0 10 Roy............................. 92 61 93 64 / 20 20 0 10 Conchas......................... 100 65 100 70 / 10 50 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 95 64 96 67 / 10 50 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 101 65 101 71 / 10 50 0 10 Clovis.......................... 99 65 98 68 / 0 30 0 10 Portales........................ 99 66 99 69 / 0 20 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 98 67 98 69 / 5 50 0 10 Roswell......................... 100 71 100 70 / 0 20 0 5 Picacho......................... 96 65 95 65 / 10 20 5 5 Elk............................. 93 61 92 61 / 10 20 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-217-219-221.