textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

- A widespread high wind event is expected today, and will continue from the central mountain chain eastward tonight, with blowing dust, dangerous crosswinds, and some damaging wind gusts around 60 mph expected.

- Snow squalls and a flash freeze could make driving hazardous from the continental divide westward across northwest and west central New Mexico this afternoon and evening, then there will be a greater risk of snow squalls in the same area Friday morning. - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas today, then again across the east central plains on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Another high wind event is forecast today and tonight as a vigorous upper level trough crosses the central and southern Rockies and steers the polar jet stream over the forecast area. Wind speeds at 700 mb will generally vary from 40-60 KT today, while a ~992 mb surface low develops in the lee of the CO Rockies. As a result, surface wind gusts to 50 mph will be common across northern and central NM today, and along and east of the central mountain chain tonight, except for gusts up to 45 mph on the southeast plains. Stronger gusts around 60 mph are forecast over the western mountains, and along and just east of the central mountain chain. Wind Advisories or High Wind Warnings are in effect for all except the southeast plains where the stronger flow aloft won't arrive until sunset, and the Tusas and Chuska Mountains where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect due to the combination of snow and wind. The day shift will need to monitor the southeast plains closely today, including Chaves and Roosevelt Counties, in case the stronger flow aloft arrives earlier than expected making a Wind Advisory necessary there.

Critically low humidities are also forecast across northeast and east central areas today, where a Red Flag Warning is also in effect. Ongoing wildfires in Harding and southern Union Counties could grow significantly under these conditions.

Snow amounts in the Tusas and Chuska Mountains should reach 1-3 inches, except up to 6 inches above 8500 feet. Most of that should fall this afternoon and evening. There is a moderately high probability (roughly 50%) that a blustery Pacific cold front pushing through north central, northwest, and west central NM will produce a few snow squalls late this afternoon and into the evening resulting in a quick inch or two of snow along the continental divide, and potentially as far west as Gallup and Farmington. This would be accompanied by near zero visibility in falling and blowing snow, as well as a flash freeze making auto travel particularly hazardous. Those with travel plans across the northwest third of NM are advised to consider traveling early or delaying travel to avoid getting caught in this high impact but sub Winter Weather Advisory scenario late this afternoon and evening.

Additional disturbances will stream across the forecast area from the west late tonight and Thursday keeping a 10-30 percent chance of snow showers in the forecast along and west of the central mountain chain. Any additional snow accumulation will be light and favor the northern and western mountains. The flow aloft will trend weaker while remaining fairly brisk on Thursday resulting in west wind gusts generally from 30-40 mph over southern, central and eastern parts of the forecast area. Locally stronger gusts up to 50 mph are likely along and just east of the central mountain chain, especially in the morning.

Otherwise, the recent cooling trend will continue today and Thursday, with high temperatures bottoming out Thursday afternoon from near 30-year averages on the far eastern plains to as much as 18 degrees below average across the west.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

The third upper level trough in the ongoing series will cross the central and southern Rockies late Thursday night and Friday morning with more snow and another round of strong winds. The Pacific cold front with this system will dive into western NM Friday morning with another potential snow squall. The snow squall potential will be higher on Friday morning than it will be this afternoon and evening due to greater instability on Friday than will probably be observed this afternoon and evening. NAM12 depicts Lifted Indices on Friday from 0 to -3 along the continental divide of northwest NM with CAPE around 200 J/KG, suggesting there may even be a few lightning strikes with the vigorous snow showers. However, there won't be a flash freeze since temperatures will already be below freezing when the snow starts. A few inches of snow again look likely in the northwest mountains, except up to 6 inches in the Tusas Mountains, as well as a quick inch or two as the blustery Pacific cold front moves gradually upslope from Gallup and Farmington to the continental divide. The latest forecast models have strengthened the wind speed forecast for Friday, when gusts from 40-50 mph now look likely, except potentially around 60 mph in spots along and just east of the central mountain chain. A ~989 mb surface low in the lee of the CO Rockies should crank up the winds again across northeast and east central NM.

A ridge of high pressure will develop over the southwest US Saturday into Tuesday with dry weather and warming temperatures. After high temperatures below average areawide on Saturday, readings will climb near to several degrees above 1991-2020 averages on Monday, and around 4 to 18 degrees above the averages on Tuesday. Winds will be significantly lighter than those observed this week, while remaining seasonably gusty across eastern NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Strong winds are forecast areawide today, through the evening across central areas, and through tonight across the east. The wind direction will start southwesterly, then veer out of the west and northwest during the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through from the northwest. There is a moderately high probability of snow squalls that could briefly drop flight categories below airport minimums along the cold front this afternoon and evening from the Tusas Mountains, Jemez Mountains, and Mount Taylor westward including KGUP and KFMN. Mountain obscurations will be common this afternoon and tonight in snow, especially over north central and western areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Sub-15% humidities are forecast today across the eastern plains and as far west as the lower Rio Grande Valley. ERCs are also forecast to vary from the 50th to 95th percentile across eastern areas, where a Red Flag Warning is again in effect. We cancelled the Fire Weather Watch that was in effect for today in the Middle Rio Grande Valley, since ERCs are forecast to be below the 50th percentile. However, humidities as low as 12 percent in Socorro County will result in a few to five hours of critical fire weather conditions. Humidities around 20 percent are forecast farther north in the Middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Locally critical fire weather conditions are again forecast Thursday on the eastern plains with marginally critical wind speeds in most places. We will monitor a couple of wildfires in Harding and southern Union Counties for growth during today's wind event, and will consider issuing a Red Flag Warning for Thursday across the northeast if the fires are actively growing, or if the wind speed forecast strengthens for Thursday. Wind speeds are forecast to become strong again on Friday, so a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for the east central plains on Friday afternoon with this forecast package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 44 17 37 27 / 60 30 20 60 Dulce........................... 37 7 31 13 / 90 70 40 80 Cuba............................ 44 15 34 19 / 60 80 50 40 Gallup.......................... 40 11 38 19 / 50 50 40 30 El Morro........................ 40 16 36 19 / 40 60 40 20 Grants.......................... 46 15 41 17 / 20 50 30 10 Quemado......................... 45 21 42 23 / 10 40 30 0 Magdalena....................... 51 28 47 27 / 0 10 20 0 Datil........................... 44 24 42 24 / 0 20 20 0 Reserve......................... 48 26 45 22 / 20 50 40 5 Glenwood........................ 53 30 48 22 / 20 50 50 5 Chama........................... 32 2 24 10 / 90 80 30 60 Los Alamos...................... 45 19 37 23 / 40 60 30 30 Pecos........................... 48 18 38 19 / 20 50 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 13 32 17 / 60 60 20 20 Red River....................... 30 7 24 11 / 70 70 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 36 4 29 7 / 50 70 20 20 Taos............................ 43 13 35 16 / 60 60 20 20 Mora............................ 46 15 39 16 / 20 60 10 10 Espanola........................ 52 20 42 19 / 30 40 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 47 21 38 24 / 30 60 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 20 41 22 / 20 50 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 29 47 31 / 10 40 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 27 49 28 / 5 30 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 27 51 25 / 5 20 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 27 48 27 / 10 20 20 5 Belen........................... 60 27 53 24 / 0 20 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 27 48 27 / 10 30 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 59 25 51 23 / 0 20 20 5 Corrales........................ 58 27 49 26 / 10 30 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 59 26 52 24 / 0 20 10 5 Placitas........................ 54 26 44 28 / 10 40 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 56 26 48 27 / 10 20 20 10 Socorro......................... 62 31 57 27 / 0 10 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 23 41 26 / 10 50 30 10 Tijeras......................... 51 25 43 27 / 10 40 30 10 Edgewood........................ 53 23 44 22 / 5 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 21 46 17 / 0 30 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 50 20 41 22 / 0 20 5 5 Mountainair..................... 55 25 47 23 / 0 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 55 25 49 24 / 0 10 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 57 32 54 32 / 0 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 31 48 31 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 49 18 43 14 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 50 18 45 14 / 0 10 0 0 Springer........................ 54 21 47 14 / 0 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 20 43 19 / 5 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 60 26 52 19 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 55 24 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 65 31 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 29 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 31 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 33 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 69 34 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 31 59 23 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 70 35 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 62 36 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 61 33 59 32 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ201-203-204-206-207-209-211-216>222-224-225-241.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ230>232-234-235-237.

High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ205-208.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ202-210.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ212>215-223-226>229-233-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for NMZ126.