textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- High temperatures continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal resulting in moderate to major heat risk across much of New Mexico especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are expected on several days over central and western New Mexico.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

- Smoke from wildfires in Utah, Nevada, and Colorado may begin to impact air quality across northern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The main weather hazards continue to be extreme heat and marginally severe storms for portions of New Mexico. High temperatures are still forecast to be a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year resulting in record high temperatures in a few places. This results in moderate to major heat risk mainly over the Rio Grande Valley including ABQ metro and then western portions of New Mexico. Upper level ridge should be situated over AZ/NM for the next couple of days supporting extreme heat. There are event much cooler mountainous areas that are observing unusually high temperatures and heat but not quite getting to major heat risk or a need for heat advisories.

The greatest chance of overlapping low level moisture, instability, lift and shear continue to be over NE New Mexico this afternoon and tomorrow. SPC maintains marginal risk of severe storms in this area as storms are expected to initiate along the mountains and move across the NE Highlands and plains. Storm modes will likely be pulse single cells to clusters of storms that produce downburst winds. More intense storms could produce a few quarter sized hail stones but lapse rates are well...there have been better lapse rates. Dry air entrainment will certainly boost the downburst potential with DCAPEs 1200-1400 J/kg. Tomorrow looks to be a repeat of today with the same areas outlooked.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Long range ensembles indicate a subtle shifts and wobbles with the upper level ridge. The ridge may become more established over the great base late Thursday into Friday would could allow for more convection assuming there is enough residue moisture under the ridge. Over the weekend the ridge builds over the Four Corners so any relief from the ridge will be short lived if any.

Early next week the ridge does weaken and perhaps allow for a better monsoon moisture plume to become established. Only problem is that the axis of the moisture plume is over AZ so the chances of thunderstorm activity in NM is not as great as what the models depict. There is a chance that some of the moisture could develop east into NM but these kinds of scenarios for a wet monsoon pattern to develop just have not panned out so far this year. But we really need this to pan out because a lot of areas still need precipitation to recover from an abysmal winter/spring.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Overall no major changes to the TAFs for the 18Z cycle. VFR conditions are expected with light winds. Thunderstorm activity will be rather isolated but could still cause some outflow to move into KABQ/KAEG/KSAF this afternoon. PROB30 was left for TSRA at these terminals as well but confidence is low. Very low. Very very low. Also the time of the PROB30 was pushed back an hour into the evening hours. Similar conditions expected tomorrow.

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FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Normally for this time of year this discussion will say something along the lines of no fire weather concerns for the next 7 days but the reality is that the data does not support such language. Starting with fuel moisture well simply there is a decreasing amount of fuel moisture due to a putrid monsoon season so far. Monsoon season for precipitation is always hit and miss and it's been a lot more miss. ERC's are getting up into the 80-90 percentiles of climo for many areas in NM excluding maybe the Gila Forest and central mountains. While winds are not expected to reach critical levels, minimum relative humidity each afternoon over the next few days will certainly drop below 15 percent in many areas and below 10 percent in the Four Corners region. If winds ever did decide to increase, it would not take much to get rapid fire spread from a lighting ignition given the state of fuel moisture and low humidity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 64 99 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 52 97 51 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 95 59 96 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 61 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 57 91 57 90 / 5 5 10 20 Grants.......................... 60 96 59 95 / 5 5 0 5 Quemado......................... 61 91 61 90 / 20 10 20 30 Magdalena....................... 65 91 65 91 / 40 20 5 30 Datil........................... 60 87 60 87 / 30 30 20 50 Reserve......................... 60 94 59 94 / 30 30 20 70 Glenwood........................ 63 97 62 98 / 30 50 30 70 Chama........................... 54 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 63 91 63 91 / 10 10 5 20 Pecos........................... 58 95 58 92 / 10 5 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 91 57 91 / 10 5 20 5 Red River....................... 48 82 48 82 / 20 5 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 42 86 42 86 / 20 5 10 20 Taos............................ 55 95 55 94 / 10 0 10 5 Mora............................ 53 90 54 89 / 10 10 5 30 Espanola........................ 63 98 62 99 / 10 5 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 64 93 63 93 / 10 5 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 96 61 95 / 10 5 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 100 69 100 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 99 68 99 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 102 67 102 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 100 69 100 / 20 0 0 0 Belen........................... 66 100 66 100 / 20 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 102 67 102 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 65 100 65 101 / 20 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 69 102 68 102 / 20 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 100 66 100 / 20 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 98 66 98 / 20 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 101 68 101 / 20 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 71 101 71 102 / 40 5 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 95 62 93 / 20 5 5 10 Tijeras......................... 64 94 64 94 / 20 5 0 10 Edgewood........................ 60 96 59 95 / 30 10 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 97 57 96 / 30 10 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 61 92 60 91 / 30 10 10 20 Mountainair..................... 61 95 61 94 / 50 10 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 62 93 62 92 / 40 10 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 67 95 / 20 10 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 61 87 61 86 / 10 30 20 70 Capulin......................... 55 88 54 88 / 40 30 20 30 Raton........................... 54 93 54 92 / 20 30 20 20 Springer........................ 55 96 55 95 / 30 20 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 92 56 90 / 10 20 10 30 Clayton......................... 62 95 62 95 / 40 10 30 0 Roy............................. 61 93 60 91 / 30 10 30 20 Conchas......................... 68 100 67 99 / 10 5 30 10 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 65 94 / 20 10 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 68 100 68 100 / 20 0 20 10 Clovis.......................... 68 98 68 98 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 70 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 98 69 98 / 5 0 20 5 Roswell......................... 71 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 96 66 96 / 0 5 10 10 Elk............................. 62 94 62 93 / 0 10 5 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205-207-219.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ201-205-207- 219.