textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread in northeastern New Mexico this afternoon.

- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms Monday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph and patchy blowing dust. Low chance of new fire starts from dry storms.

- There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. This will increase the threat of rapid fire spread with any fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

It's another dry day out there around central and northern New Mexico with humidities already in the 10-20% range. Moisture is beginning to surge in from the south, however, as evidenced by an increase in clouds over Chihuahua and Sonora. Cloud bases will gradually lower from south to north overnight, with the most dramatic change in the southeast plains where deeper moisture will get pushed in from the Gulf. Isentropic lift could generate a few sprinkles and light rain showers in the southeast around sunrise, with very little to no accumulation. This moisture will also interact with a subtle westerly shortwave Monday afternoon, producing isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms. Coverage will focus over the Southwest Mountains, with precip. struggling to push north of I-40. Since westerly flow will be so weak, any convection that does develop will move quite slowly so that does increase the potential for wetting rainfall where storms develop. Most areas likely won't receive more than a hundredth or two, but localized pockets of a quarter inch are likely at the same time. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern, but DCAPE values generally in the 500-1000 J/kg suggests damaging winds and significant blowing dust are unlikely. Gust potential is actually highest in the Eastern Plains where coverage will be quite limited and cloud bases will be very high. Clouds will clear quite quickly Monday evening as dry air pushes in from the west, allowing for good radiational cooling.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Tuesday should be one of the quieter days of the week as a strong Pacific trough begins to deepen over the West Coast. This will further amplify of the ridge over the Rockies, surging temps up several degrees in what should be the warmest day of the week for most areas (except the Eastern Plains). The upper-level trough will slide eastward into The Great Basin on Wednesday, placing increasingly strong southwest flow over New Mexico. All ensemble means are showing 700mb winds of 25 to 35 kts, with the GEFS slightly stronger than the other ensemble systems. Flow turns more westerly Wednesday night into early Thursday, which should keep gusty winds going through the night along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. There could be some mtn wave activity in this area as well, but model guidance does not currently show a sufficiently stable layer at crest level for the development of crashing mountain waves. Thursday will once again be breezy to windy with the strongest winds in eastern NM following the passage of a dry Pacific cold front.

Quasi-zonal flow looks to persist over the desert southwest Friday into the weekend. Since the sub-troipical jet will remain to the south, winds should weaken quite a bit, with typical Spring breezes prevailing. The pattern looks to remain progressive over the western CONUS into the weekend, with the development of another longwave trough likely. Some models are showing this trough skirting northern NM over the weekend into the early part of next week, bringing some light precip. to the northern mountains. Given the high disagreement in storm track and lack of precip. even in the models that show a deeper trough, any substantial rainfall looks unlikely. Better chances will likely arrive mid-next week as the storm track shifts further south.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A strong southerly breeze will persist through the evening in eastern NM today while winds remain relatively light west of the central mtn chain. As of 18Z mostly clear skies prevail around the region, but high clouds will increase from the south through the afternoon into the overnight hours, with gradually lowering cloud bases. Cloud bases will lower most significantly in the southeast where there is around a 40% chance that MVFR cigs develop between 09Z and 18Z tomorrow. A few very light showers may develop in this area as well in the early morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are underway in northeastern NM this afternoon. Winds are slightly stronger than previously forecast, with gusts as high as 45 mph in Clayton already. Moisture will surge in from the south overnight into Monday, resulting in better RH recoveries than the past few days, especially in the southeast. A mix of wet and dry storms and gusty virga showers are likely in western and south-central NM tomorrow afternoon, but overall coverage will be isolated to widely scattered and wetting rainfall will be hard to come by. Hi-res models suggest a few slow- moving showers over the Southwest Mountains could produce localized areas of 0.25" as they slowly shift off to the west. The risk of dry storms and potential fire starts remains low, but cannot be ruled out, particularly just north of I-40 where cloud bases will be higher and dewpoint depressions greater.

After relatively quiet conditions Tuesday, fire danger concerns rise again on Wednesday as New Mexico comes under the influence of a Great Basin trough. Dry southwest flow will prevail across the state, with the strongest winds across the high terrain of northern New Mexico. Widespread critical fire weather conditions look likely now, with the highest danger across the northeast where 7-10% RH will overlap with 25 to 35 mph sustained winds. A cold frontal passage will shift winds around to the west on Thursday, which could potentially be even drier across the Eastern Plains thanks to downsloping. While winds may decrease below Red Flag thresholds across the west, central and eastern NM are likely in for another day of critical fire weather. Winds trend weaker Friday into the weekend, with typical Spring breezes each afternoon. Light precip. chances remain in the forecast for northern NM over the weekend into early next week, but wetting rain chances remain very low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 43 77 45 79 / 0 5 5 5 Dulce........................... 30 73 36 75 / 0 5 5 10 Cuba............................ 37 71 41 74 / 0 20 10 20 Gallup.......................... 36 73 36 75 / 0 20 10 5 El Morro........................ 39 67 39 72 / 5 40 10 10 Grants.......................... 36 71 37 76 / 0 40 10 10 Quemado......................... 40 68 41 74 / 10 50 10 5 Magdalena....................... 44 69 47 74 / 10 40 20 10 Datil........................... 40 67 42 72 / 10 50 20 10 Reserve......................... 36 75 36 78 / 10 50 5 0 Glenwood........................ 40 79 38 82 / 10 40 5 0 Chama........................... 32 65 35 69 / 0 10 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 44 68 48 72 / 0 20 10 20 Pecos........................... 37 70 40 74 / 0 30 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 67 37 72 / 0 10 10 20 Red River....................... 31 57 33 62 / 0 10 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 22 64 25 68 / 0 20 10 20 Taos............................ 31 71 35 75 / 0 10 10 20 Mora............................ 34 67 37 73 / 0 20 20 20 Espanola........................ 39 76 44 80 / 0 20 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 42 69 44 74 / 0 30 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 72 43 77 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 72 53 80 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 74 52 81 / 0 20 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 46 76 48 84 / 0 20 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 76 49 82 / 0 20 10 10 Belen........................... 43 78 45 83 / 10 30 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 45 75 47 82 / 0 20 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 42 75 43 83 / 5 30 10 10 Corrales........................ 45 76 48 83 / 0 20 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 43 75 42 83 / 5 30 20 10 Placitas........................ 47 71 51 77 / 0 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 47 74 51 82 / 0 20 10 10 Socorro......................... 48 78 51 84 / 10 30 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 67 47 74 / 0 30 20 10 Tijeras......................... 45 68 48 75 / 0 30 20 10 Edgewood........................ 40 67 44 77 / 0 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 71 33 78 / 0 30 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 39 67 42 73 / 0 40 20 10 Mountainair..................... 41 69 45 76 / 10 40 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 40 68 43 75 / 10 40 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 45 71 49 77 / 20 40 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 40 65 43 70 / 20 50 20 20 Capulin......................... 34 69 39 75 / 0 0 5 10 Raton........................... 31 74 36 79 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 32 74 36 80 / 0 5 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 35 68 39 75 / 0 20 10 10 Clayton......................... 42 76 46 81 / 0 0 5 0 Roy............................. 37 70 41 79 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 41 76 46 87 / 0 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 40 72 45 82 / 0 20 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 44 76 49 86 / 0 20 10 5 Clovis.......................... 44 70 47 83 / 0 30 20 10 Portales........................ 43 78 47 85 / 5 30 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 42 71 47 85 / 0 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 46 71 51 84 / 20 30 20 20 Picacho......................... 41 69 45 80 / 20 40 20 20 Elk............................. 38 65 42 78 / 20 40 20 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.