textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1016 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Record high temperatures are forecast for many locations daily through Monday, with the warmth peaking on Sunday.

- Periodic Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions take shape from Sunday onward.

- A more active pattern takes shape for the middle of next week onward, with breezy to windy conditions and at least some chances for rain and mountain snow.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Upper-level high and associated ridging, which have been responsible for our unseasonable warmth of late, can be seen on GOES water-vapor satellite imagery to be centered just off the northern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Not a great deal of change in terms of sensible weather from yesterday to today, which overall will yield a very nice late winter day. Deep boundary-layer mixing (00Z/ABQ sounding was dry adiabatic up to ~615mb) will bring down northwesterly breezes to the surface again during the afternoon, except near the Texas border, where a weak boundary will struggle to maintain a lighter northeasterly flow. Several daily max temperature records are likely to fall again; see Climate section, below.

The current late winter warmth peaks on Sunday (01 March). Despite the ridge aloft flattening, as an upper-level low deepens off of northern CA, heights do not change very much and surface winds become more westerly across most of the state, further enhancing compressional warming. Operational NBM guidance has backed off ever-so-slightly with the Sun forecast high for the ABQ Sunport, now checking in at 79F. NBM 5.0 probability of reaching 80F is at 30%. This would smash the daily record of 74F, at any rate. Roswell heats up into the upper 80s, with NBM 5.0 chance of hitting 90F only 13%. The seasonally hot temperatures yield forecast RH values <15%, generally south of I-40, with areas of Elevated fire weather conditions possible, but with winds being a limiting factor.

A back-door cold front is progged to slip into Union County during the day and make only very slow progress south- and westward until after sunset. Its effects will be felt more from Sunday night onward...

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Model guidance has converged somewhat over the past 24 hours on the timing of a back-door cold front's westward push late Sunday into the overnight hours. As mentioned above, guidance (particularly the NAM), has the boundary parked over Union County much of the day. It should be able to start pushing farther south and west with the loss of daytime heating/mixdown of westerly winds, pushing up against the central mountain chain by dawn Monday. Some added low-level moisture is modeled to ride up along the front from richer moisture residing over central TX, with the RRFS and NAM suggesting some areas of low stratus in the southeastern corner of NM, with some fog or even drizzle not being ruled out along the east slopes. This will knock 5 to 10 degrees off of Sunday's highs for SE NM, but the RGV still heats up, with the operational NBM forecast for ABQ still 80F, and a 45% chance of equaling or exceeding that number, per NBM 5.0. This would easily be another record. The front washes out fairly quickly by later Monday afternoon, as an upper-level trough translates eastward from northern CA toward the Great Basin.

Model guidance in pretty good agreement now with a mostly open wave for the Tuesday system, with the H5 vort max tracking across northern CO. This means continued paltry precip chances for NM, with only light QPF in the northern mountains and perhaps the northeastern plains in association with dewpoint rises behind another back-door cold front Tuesday night. Fire weather concerns are likely to be more impactful, as winds pick up into the breezy to windy category and dry surface conditions continue. Widespread near-Critical to Critical conditions are already forecast for the eastern plains and central highlands.

Wednesday still appears to be relatively uneventful, as a short- wave ridge aloft moves over NM. Fire weather concerns have at least a medium chance to return on Thursday, as southwest surface winds increase in response to another upper-level trough digging into the Mountain West region, along with low-level lee-side troughing. Precip amounts again look scanty, apart from low chances in the northern mountains and perhaps along the TX border, where a dryline feature may set up.

Forecast confidence really decreases beyond Thursday. Deterministic and ensemble mean solutions more or less agree on troughing eventually cutting off from mean flow into a closed low somewhere in the southwestern U. S. or northern Mexico...but location and eventual ejection timing vary widely. This setup could act to pull a back-door cold front and/or low-level Gulf moisture into NM. For now, we have retained the 20-40% PoPs from the NBM for late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR all areas the next 24 hrs. Periodic wind gusts of 15-20KT will be common across the region today with above normal temps and deeper airmass mixing. Otherwise, cirrus will spread east today and thicken thru sunset before thinning again overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Fire weather concerns are likely to re-occur during the week ahead, as a progressive pattern of upper-level troughs bring breezy to windy conditions, but little in the way of widespread wetting precipitation, through next Thursday. Several back-door fronts act to occasionally replenish moisture for areas along the Texas border, keeping the threat more limited there. Dry and seasonally hot conditions on Sunday yield forecast RH values <15%, generally south of I-40, with areas of Elevated fire weather conditions possible, but with 20-ft. winds being the limiting factor. Tuesday appears similar to Sunday, in terms of the fire weather pattern, but with stronger westerly winds allowing for Near-Critical to Critical conditions to develop, especially in the eastern Plains and Central Highlands. Lighter winds mitigate the threat of fire spread for Wednesday, before southwest winds increase again in advance of the next weather system, with areas of at least Near-Critical conditions returning. The forecast is rather uncertain beyond Thursday, with an upper-level low developing somewhere in the Desert Southwest. Winds would stay higher in this scenario, but moisture/precip placement makes it difficult to identify any fire spread threat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 65 26 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 66 34 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 70 28 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 67 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 72 31 74 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 70 37 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 72 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 70 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 33 80 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 37 83 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 59 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 65 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 69 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 63 36 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 59 30 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 61 25 62 27 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 66 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 69 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 72 36 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 67 42 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 74 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 42 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 75 36 81 38 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 76 42 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 75 36 81 38 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 76 40 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 75 37 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 70 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 75 42 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 78 43 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 68 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 70 40 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 33 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 38 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 72 43 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 72 41 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 77 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 66 32 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 69 30 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 72 30 76 30 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 71 36 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 71 38 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 37 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 78 35 82 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 76 39 80 38 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 38 82 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 41 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 81 39 85 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 79 39 84 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 45 88 44 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 45 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 81 42 85 43 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.