textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms are likely each day through Monday, with coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe over eastern areas today, over central areas Sunday, and in the east again Monday.

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars each day through Monday.

- Hot, dry, and gusty weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday with an increasing risk of rapid fire spread, especially across northwest NM Wednesday.

- There is a moderate probability (50-60%) that a Heat Advisory will be required for lower elevation portions of the area Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Moderate westerly flow aloft combined with daytime heating and above average PWATs (for mid June) is resulting in another round of scattered convection early this afternoon. Showers and storms west of the central mountain chain will favor strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting (>0.10") rainfall today, as the lower levels of the atmosphere have dried relative to yesterday. The best chances for soaking rains today will be across the eastern plains and highlands, where surface dewpoint temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to upper 50s. The SPC is maintaining a marginal risk for severe storms across the east central plains today, where the right ingredients for a large hail and damaging wind threat come together between 4-10PM MDT. A strong backdoor cold front will progress southwest across the area tonight, forcing a few showers and storms and bringing gusty northeasterly winds. The front will push through the central mountain chain overnight and create a strong east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Our forecast speeds are sitting just below advisory threshold for KABQ, but a short-lived advisory may become necessary early Sunday morning. Low level moisture transport behind the front will reach the Continental Divide Sunday morning, where convective initiation is modeled for Sunday afternoon. The 12Z NAM is particularly bullish with the ingredients for a few strong to severe storms across central NM Sunday, advertising 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts in the RGV Sunday afternoon, along with muCAPE of 1300J/kg and LIs of -4 to -5C. The atmosphere will be relatively stable across eastern NM behind the front on Sunday, with temperatures 15-20 degrees below average. That said, a stable lower boundary layer up to the east slopes of the central mountain chain won't be conducive for well developed convection and will lower the threat for burn scar flash flooding in Lincoln County Sunday afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Shear and instability will trend up some Monday with warmer conditions overall, bringing an increased threat for strong to severe storms by afternoon. The main threat corridor will extend from northeast NM southwest to the central and south central highlands, where the NAM is advertising 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts and muCAPE of 2,500-3,000J/kg. However, dry northwest flow aloft will begin to penetrate further southeast into central NM and act to limit convective coverage Monday afternoon. Dry northwest flow aloft will then spread further east across the state Tue/Wed, shutting down chances for convection except for isolated storms across far easter NM late Tuesday. Temperatures will trend up Tue/Wed, along with heat impacts. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the work week, with highs reaching near 100 degrees in Albuquerque and near 105 in Roswell. There is a moderate probability (50-60%) that a Heat Advisory will be required for lower elevations portions of NM Wednesday. A backdoor front will replenish moisture across eastern NM Thursday, bringing renewed chances for showers and storms Thu/Fri. Western NM will likely remain hot and mostly dry Thu/Fri under the influence of building high pressure aloft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A gusty backdoor cold front barreling southwestward and westward through the eastern plains will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a strong east wind below canyons late tonight through most of Sunday morning. Peak gusts may reach as high as 45 KT below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque, where an Airport Weather Warning will be issued for the Albuquerque Sunport from approximately 10-17Z Sunday. Moisture with the front will produce widespread low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions east of the central mountain chain late tonight through Sunday morning. Low clouds are forecast to linger across parts of the east central and southeast plains through the afternoon. The easterly upslope flow will also produce broad areas of light rain and some rain showers east of the central mountain chain tonight and Sunday. Farther west, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that develop along the continental divide on Sunday afternoon will form clusters and lines as they march southeastward to the central mountain chain during the afternoon and evening. There will probably be a few severe storms in the mix capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts, large hail, and blowing dust with visibility near a quarter mile in dust-prone lower-elevation locations, like the central valley south of Santa Fe. High res models show scattered to numerous storms moving across much of the eastern plains Sunday evening and late Sunday night, but confidence in storms developing on the plains is low-to-moderate due to a more stable atmosphere there. At this time, rain showers look more likely across the east Sunday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Chances for wetting storms will persist across the area through Monday, before warming and drying take hold on Tue/Wed. Showers and storms across western NM this afternoon will favor gusty/erratic wind over wetting rainfall. A strong backdoor cold front will progress southwest across the area overnight, increasing humidity and focusing chances for wetting storms between the Continental Divide and Central Mountain Chain Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers and storms that develop west of the Continental Divide on Sunday will likely be of the drier variety, with potential for lightning ignitions. Dry northwest flow aloft will take over Tuesday and trend up some Wednesday, spreading the chances for critical fire weather conditions from the Four Corners area southeast into central NM. Another backdoor front will bring increased humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to eastern NM Thu/Fri, while hot and dry conditions persist across western NM with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 59 92 56 95 / 10 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 87 41 92 / 30 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 51 85 52 88 / 30 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 50 87 49 91 / 10 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 53 84 52 88 / 10 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 52 88 52 92 / 20 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 85 55 88 / 10 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 58 84 59 89 / 40 40 0 0 Datil........................... 55 83 56 87 / 10 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 52 90 50 94 / 10 20 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 95 54 98 / 10 20 5 0 Chama........................... 44 79 43 86 / 30 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 80 58 86 / 50 40 0 0 Pecos........................... 49 83 50 88 / 50 30 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 77 50 85 / 60 50 5 0 Red River....................... 41 69 41 77 / 70 60 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 39 74 40 81 / 70 40 5 0 Taos............................ 48 80 47 88 / 50 30 5 0 Mora............................ 47 79 48 86 / 60 30 5 0 Espanola........................ 54 87 54 94 / 60 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 82 57 88 / 50 30 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 86 54 92 / 40 20 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 90 64 95 / 40 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 91 61 96 / 40 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 93 60 99 / 30 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 92 62 97 / 30 20 0 0 Belen........................... 57 93 58 99 / 40 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 92 61 97 / 40 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 92 57 98 / 30 20 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 93 61 98 / 30 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 92 59 98 / 30 20 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 88 61 93 / 40 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 92 61 97 / 30 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 93 64 99 / 50 30 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 85 57 89 / 40 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 55 86 57 91 / 40 20 0 0 Edgewood........................ 52 87 53 91 / 50 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 88 50 93 / 50 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 50 82 52 88 / 40 20 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 86 54 91 / 50 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 53 85 55 91 / 50 20 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 60 86 61 92 / 60 20 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 79 57 85 / 70 50 10 5 Capulin......................... 45 73 47 83 / 60 60 30 10 Raton........................... 47 78 48 89 / 70 50 30 5 Springer........................ 49 80 49 90 / 60 40 30 5 Las Vegas....................... 50 79 51 89 / 50 40 10 10 Clayton......................... 51 76 54 87 / 30 20 40 10 Roy............................. 50 77 52 88 / 50 20 30 0 Conchas......................... 55 84 57 95 / 30 20 30 0 Santa Rosa...................... 54 82 56 93 / 30 20 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 83 59 94 / 30 10 40 0 Clovis.......................... 57 81 59 92 / 40 30 20 0 Portales........................ 56 82 59 94 / 50 30 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 57 84 59 94 / 40 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 62 85 63 94 / 60 20 20 0 Picacho......................... 57 83 58 92 / 70 30 20 5 Elk............................. 55 83 56 90 / 70 70 10 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.