textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 417 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 - Minor winter travel impacts will skirt the Colorado border late tonight into Thursday morning, favoring Raton Pass. - Another round of light rain showers and very high terrain snow will move across central, southern, and southeastern New Mexico Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1139 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

The upper-level low currently centered over south-central CO will continue its east-southeastward trek tonight, bringing scattered rain and mountain snow showers across the northern mountains. The Raton Ridge and areas near Raton Pass will see the greatest potential for accumulating snow, where 1-2 inches may occur.

Meanwhile, a backdoor front will push southward across northeastern NM overnight, bringing colder temperatures and gusty winds of 30-40 mph to portions of the eastern plains Thursday morning. A combination of snow, reduced visibilities, and stronger winds could result in brief, localized travel difficulties, particularly near Raton Pass. Conditions will steadily improve Thursday as the low departs the region, with winds decreasing and mostly clear skies prevailing. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal through Friday.

Another upper-level disturbance drops southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest by Friday. Recent guidance has trended toward a slower more amplified solution, with a closed low developing near the bootheel of NM. This would support increasing moisture, compared to past model runs, leading to isolated to scattered showers across the southwestern higher terrain Friday afternoon before expanding eastward towards the ABQ metro by evening. Rainfall totals are expected to be light, generally 0.1 inches or less. However, some high-res guidance suggests some locally higher amounts beneath heavier, more organized showers.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1139 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

The better potential for precipitation looks to shift toward southeastern NM on Saturday as the upper-level system continues southeastward. Overall, confidence remains low regarding the exact track, timing, and evolution of the disturbance, so precipitation coverage and amounts could chance with future forecast updates.

The upper disturbance should gradually move away from NM over the weekend as broad ridging builds across the Great Basin and southern Rockies. This pattern will lead to generally dry conditions through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will gradually moderate, with the slightest warming trend into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Isolated showers are occurring along the northeastern border with CO this morning as an upper-level system centered to the north propagates eastward. A gusty backdoor front will also advance into eastern NM this morning and much of the day Thursday, bringing gusty north-northwesterly winds up to 25-30 knots across terminals there. Winds will be lighter elsewhere over central and western NM, generally around 5-10 knots. There's a low chance for patchy fog development over parts of northwestern NM near KFMN this morning. However, confidence is low so did not include mention in the TAF. Winds lessen across all areas by late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the next week. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture across the state, reducing the potential for rapid fire growth. Isolated light rain showers and some snow over higher terrain near Raton Pass Thursday morning. A few light showers and snow is also possible this weekend, mainly across central and southern NM. Otherwise the main concern will be periods of poor ventilation through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 39 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 58 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 55 35 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 57 32 58 31 / 0 0 20 30 El Morro........................ 57 33 56 31 / 0 0 20 30 Grants.......................... 57 34 57 34 / 0 0 10 30 Quemado......................... 61 32 59 33 / 0 0 20 30 Magdalena....................... 57 37 57 39 / 0 0 5 30 Datil........................... 56 34 55 36 / 0 0 10 40 Reserve......................... 66 32 62 35 / 0 0 5 20 Glenwood........................ 68 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 30 Chama........................... 52 30 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 53 36 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 57 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 34 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 47 26 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 52 16 51 22 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 55 26 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 55 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 60 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 35 55 35 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 33 58 34 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 37 62 40 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 33 64 40 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 39 62 42 / 0 0 5 10 Belen........................... 63 32 63 40 / 0 0 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 64 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 63 30 63 38 / 0 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 63 36 63 40 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 63 32 63 40 / 0 0 5 20 Placitas........................ 61 38 61 41 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 62 38 62 41 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 63 41 64 45 / 0 0 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 35 56 36 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 59 37 58 39 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 58 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 60 27 60 31 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 54 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 58 31 59 36 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 57 33 59 37 / 0 0 0 30 Carrizozo....................... 62 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 30 Ruidoso......................... 57 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 40 Capulin......................... 48 29 52 30 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 54 27 55 29 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 56 27 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 53 34 57 38 / 50 0 0 0 Roy............................. 55 32 54 34 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 61 37 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 36 58 40 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 60 35 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 59 37 61 42 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 60 35 62 41 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 61 37 60 42 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 60 39 59 46 / 0 0 0 30 Picacho......................... 61 37 60 42 / 0 0 0 40 Elk............................. 62 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.