textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Dry and windy conditions will continue today, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth across much of northern and central New Mexico. Critical fire weather conditions will likely persist across northeast New Mexico through early week.

- There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness for sensitive groups in eastern New Mexico today.

- Chances for thunderstorms will trend up across far eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday, with a low to moderate probability for storms to become severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

An upper level trough/low will swing east across the Intermountain West through Monday as second upper low drops southeast over California. This pattern will keep dry southwest flow aloft in place over much of the region, bringing breezy to windy and continued hot conditions. Smoke from area wildfires may begin to impact locales across western NM, especially by Monday. Highs across the eastern plains will reach up into the upper 90s and low 100s, bringing a moderate risk of heat-induced illness for sensitive groups. Lastly, a few showers or storms can not be ruled out across the southeast plains today and Monday, with strong/erratic wind gusts being the primary impact. Severe probabilities are very low across the southeast plains today and Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Dry southwest flow aloft will provide continued hot and breezy to windy conditions across western NM through Wednesday. Gulf moisture advection will come to the eastern plains Tue/Wed and result in improving chances for showers and storms, with temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Low to moderate probabilities for severe storms across eastern NM on Tue/Wed, with both shear and instability on the upswing. Flow aloft will weaken from Thursday through the weekend as the jet stream retreats north and allows the Monsoon high a shot at getting established. There is some model spread with regard to the synoptic features going into the weekend and that spread is resulting in notable differences in modeled PWATs. The 00Z GFS is more bullish on moisture advection and shows the levels reaching 1.0" in KABQ by late Sunday. The NBM is weighted more toward the drier ECMWF and hence our PoPs are lower for the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at TAF sites through the period. Otherwise, stronger southwest winds will pick up again by mid day, with gusts to between 30-40kts being common across western and northern portions of the area. Areas of smoke are forecast to impact portions of western NM through the period, but visibilities will likely remain VFR.

..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK

A fire growth pattern is in place and will continue through early week as troughing persist over the western US, with dry southwest flow aloft over much of NM. The highest forecast confidence in critical fire weather conditions beyond today will be across northeast NM Mon/Tue due to stronger winds from persistent lee side troughing. However, the driest conditions will be across western NM and especially across northwest areas where the number of hours of single digit humidity will expand each day through Wednesday. Gulf moisture advection will come to the eastern plains Tue/Wed, with good to excellent humidity recovery and chances for wetting storms trending up. The jet stream is still forecast to retreat northward toward the end of the week and through next weekend, allowing the Monsoon high to get established. This will bring an end to breezy/windy conditions and will lead to a gradual uptrend in humidity and chances for wetting storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 92 56 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 46 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 87 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 86 49 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 83 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 88 52 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 85 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 88 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 83 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 50 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 94 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 80 45 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 87 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 54 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 76 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 86 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 84 53 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 93 58 91 56 / 0 5 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 88 60 85 58 / 0 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 58 89 56 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 64 92 64 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 65 92 65 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 59 95 58 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 97 62 96 61 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 96 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 96 59 94 58 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 96 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 96 60 94 60 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 92 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 95 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 99 67 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 89 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 90 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 55 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 86 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 90 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 89 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 58 84 58 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 88 54 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 91 54 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 87 59 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 97 66 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 91 61 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 100 68 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 95 66 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 100 70 98 69 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 98 69 96 67 / 10 5 20 10 Portales........................ 100 70 98 68 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 99 68 97 67 / 5 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 103 71 100 70 / 10 5 10 10 Picacho......................... 96 66 95 64 / 5 0 10 0 Elk............................. 92 62 91 61 / 5 0 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104-105-109-120-121-123-125.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ104-123.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-210-216-227-228.