textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- There is a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding from the central mountain chain eastward today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across portions of northern New Mexico through early next week.

- Temperatures trend hotter again mid-next week, with major heat risk in the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure is starting to nudge westward with heights rising a bit and winds aloft relaxing more. The lighter wind field will lead to slower and more erratic storm motions through the rest of the afternoon which will give way to some isolated heavy rainfall totals, mainly over and near the central mountain chain. The moist backdoor front may not have slid as far south or west as what earlier prognoses indicated, but it still is leading to a more moist southeasterly upslope flow over the Sangre de Cristos, and a synoptic southeasterly fetch from the Gulf continues to make it to the east slopes of the central and south central mountains of NM. This has led to convective initiation with strong storms producing heavy rainfall rates. Activity will translate eastward into the east central and northeastern plains through the evening. Overall bulk shear does not appear to be quite as high as previously advertised, given weaker winds behind the backdoor front, and this should tend to keep the strong to severe threat confined over far northeastern NM (Colfax and Union counties). Convective outflows will likely spill into the Glorieta Pass and Tijeras Canyon, leading to gusty gap/canyon winds for a couple of hours this evening, but this is looking to be a shorter duration event than what was previously advertised yesterday. Storms will mostly dissipate before midnight, but a few CAMs are indicating lingering showers persisting into the early morning hours Monday.

Storms will hurl out convective outflows this evening, including into the middle Rio Grande valley which will temporarily offer a boost in low layer moisture through early Monday. This will allow storms to expand in coverage a bit on Monday afternoon, but the focus will tend to stretch from the Gila northeastward into the Sangre de Cristos where the strongest semblance of a monsoon moisture plume will be found. PWATs look to range between 0.8 to 1.1 inches in most of this area, but drier air will be holding in the northwestern third or so of NM, potentially wrapping a bit farther into the Sangre de Cristos which might limit rainfall efficiency there Monday afternoon. No Flood Watches are planned, and overall the heavy rainfall threat is expected to turn more isolated and sparse into Monday as the high keeps building westward.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A notable downtrend in convection is then forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper high builds more directly on top of NM. Ensemble mean heights look to rise to around 594-595 decameters with a few deterministic members showing a couple decameters higher. Temperatures will rise and offer instability, but the strong high will entrain drier air and cut off any significant monsoon moisture plumes while introducing a bit of subsidence. Storms will still initiate over the high terrain, but will become less efficient at rainfall production with smaller footprints reaching the ground due to lower PWATs of generally (0.7 to 0.9 inch).

Deterministic models are indicating that a central plains shortwave will send a surface boundary into southeastern CO and far northeastern NM which may act as a brief catalyst for storms there late Wednesday. This boundary would only offer a few degrees of cooling over eastern plains zones with all areas still staying above normal into Thursday. The hope is that this backdoor front would advect increasing low layer moisture farther south and west for more widespread shower and thunderstorm development Thursday and Friday afternoons, but the PWATs only look to rise back to a 0.8 to 1.0 inch range which may only bring a modest increase in storm coverage. The upper high will orbit close to NM through next weekend too, keeping us dependent on recycled moisture. The above normal temperatures will creep within a couple to a few degrees of Heat Advisory thresholds in the upper 90's and low 100's Tuesday onward.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Thunderstorm hazards, to include brief heavy rain and gusty winds, continue to be the main concern for aviation. Some guidance is hinting at light fog/mist over NE New Mexico overnight, but NBM probabilities of visibility falling below even 5 miles are only 20-30%, and would be unlikely to affect TAF sites, at any rate. Slightly higher confidence for KAEG being clipped by a shower later this evening vs. ABQ, so added a PROB30 there. Afterwards, conditions remain quieter until mid-day Monday, when the next round of storms kick off. Chances for storm impacts at valley locations such as KABQ and KSAF are relatively higher for late afternoon Monday vs. today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

No widespread areas of strong winds are forecast through the next several days with convective outflows being the primary concern. Storm coverage will favor the central mountain chain through the afternoon before cells roll into the east central and northeastern plains this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and a couple of strong to severe storms will favor northeastern NM. This activity will dwindle slowly this evening into the overnight. A slight expansion in storm coverage is then forecast for Monday after this evening's storms push moisture farther west and south. After Monday, wetting rainfall potential reduces into Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure strengthens and drier air mixes in. In addition to fewer storms, hotter temperatures and lower afternoon humidity (15-25%) will become more common Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak backdoor front will slide in late Wednesday and Thursday, but will not offer much in the way of temperature relief, just a modest uptick in shower/storm coverage Thursday and perhaps into Friday. Areas on the northwestern fringe of the better monsoon moisture will be conducive to drier storms that produce less rainfall. In fact, some isolated dry thunderstorms have been kept in the forecast for a few of these north central to northwestern areas through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 52 89 51 91 / 0 10 10 5 Cuba............................ 58 87 58 89 / 5 30 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 89 57 90 / 5 30 10 20 El Morro........................ 56 82 55 84 / 20 50 20 30 Grants.......................... 58 86 57 89 / 20 50 20 30 Quemado......................... 58 83 57 85 / 20 60 20 40 Magdalena....................... 62 83 62 85 / 30 50 30 30 Datil........................... 57 79 56 82 / 40 60 20 40 Reserve......................... 56 87 56 89 / 30 60 20 40 Glenwood........................ 62 91 61 93 / 30 70 30 40 Chama........................... 51 82 50 84 / 0 20 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 61 84 61 86 / 10 50 20 40 Pecos........................... 56 83 56 88 / 30 70 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 82 55 85 / 10 40 20 30 Red River....................... 43 75 44 78 / 20 50 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 39 78 38 81 / 20 60 20 30 Taos............................ 55 85 54 88 / 5 40 20 20 Mora............................ 52 79 52 85 / 30 60 30 30 Espanola........................ 58 91 57 93 / 10 40 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 85 59 89 / 20 50 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 88 57 91 / 20 50 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 89 66 93 / 20 50 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 91 67 94 / 20 40 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 93 61 96 / 20 40 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 92 67 95 / 20 40 20 5 Belen........................... 64 93 64 96 / 20 30 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 64 92 64 95 / 20 40 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 61 92 61 95 / 20 30 20 5 Corrales........................ 65 93 65 96 / 20 40 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 63 92 64 95 / 20 30 20 5 Placitas........................ 63 88 63 92 / 20 50 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 66 91 66 94 / 20 40 20 5 Socorro......................... 68 93 67 96 / 30 30 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 84 59 88 / 30 50 20 10 Tijeras......................... 61 85 61 89 / 30 50 20 10 Edgewood........................ 57 85 56 89 / 30 50 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 87 54 91 / 40 50 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 56 83 57 87 / 50 50 30 20 Mountainair..................... 56 86 57 89 / 30 50 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 85 58 88 / 30 40 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 62 88 63 91 / 30 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 52 81 55 84 / 20 40 20 40 Capulin......................... 53 82 54 86 / 60 50 20 20 Raton........................... 53 85 53 91 / 30 50 20 20 Springer........................ 54 86 54 93 / 30 50 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 82 55 88 / 40 50 20 20 Clayton......................... 60 89 63 95 / 60 20 20 10 Roy............................. 58 85 59 91 / 40 30 20 10 Conchas......................... 63 94 63 99 / 50 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 62 95 / 60 20 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 62 95 64 100 / 50 20 10 0 Clovis.......................... 65 94 66 97 / 10 10 5 0 Portales........................ 65 96 67 99 / 5 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 94 66 98 / 30 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 69 98 69 100 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 91 63 94 / 10 20 5 10 Elk............................. 59 86 59 90 / 10 30 20 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.