textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 417 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026 - Slick travel conditions due to valley rain and mountain snow will favor the northern half of New Mexico Saturday.

- There is a low (10% - 20%) risk of flooding impacts over northwestern New Mexico Saturday.

- Quieter conditions expected Sunday and Monday, with unsettled weather returning Tuesday and again late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1233 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

This prolonged stretch of calm and tranquil weather over the Land of Enchantment comes to an end this afternoon with the arrival of showers and storms into the southwestern half of NM. The first phase of this stretch of unsettled weather lasting well into the weekend arrives this afternoon with a shortwave trough tracking along the international border bringing a southwesterly flow of scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms into the southwestern half of NM. The combination of divergent flow aloft and modest moisture will allow for a cluster of thunderstorms to develop along the southwestern mountains of NM early this afternoon. HiRes CAMs have been picking up on this more robust convective activity, steadily bringing them toward I-40 from Gallup to ABQ and as far as Farmington to Los Alamos and Santa Fe into the evening hours. Gusty winds and brief moderate rain with perhaps some small hail may accompany these storms as they look to be hit-and-miss across west- central, and central NM. While this batch of showers and isolated storms looks to lose cohesion and fall apart generally northeast of U.S. Hwy 550, a more cohesive batch of showers and thunderstorms looks to develop along the south-central mountains over Lincoln and Otero Counties during the afternoon period, continuing into the southeastern plains toward Roswell by the evening. This batch of convection will have greater potential to produce heavier rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50" tonight into Saturday morning, aided by being closer to the remnant shortwave trough axis.

Phase two of this event enters stage left into northwest NM while showers over southeastern and east-central NM progress northward into northeastern NM. Whatever is left of the initial shortwave trough begins to phase into the 2nd upper level trough. Numerical model guidance remains fairly consistent with this Saturday feature with a 110-130kt H3 jet max cutting thru its southern flank and helping it close off over or just lee of the Rockies. Light showers will have begun already over the northern mountains Friday night into Saturday morning, intensifying as upper level dynamics and orographic uplift enhance valley rain and high elevation snow across northern NM through the day Saturday. Steadily clearing conditions fill in behind this fast moving system west to east as it exits over northeastern NM early Sunday morning. Wrap around moisture will keep precipitation going the longest over the northeastern plains Sunday morning before all areas clear out by Sunday afternoon.

All told, snow levels look to start off at ~9,500' Saturday morning, falling to as low as ~8,000' Sunday morning. Forecast snow accumulations have trended up a tad over the northern mountains generally above 9,000' with amounts of 2-6 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 8 inches atop the peaks. A Winter Weather Advisory is likely for the Tusas Mountains, focused on slick winter travel along the U.S. Hwy 64 corridor there. The Sangre de Cristo Mts may also see Winter Weather Advisory amounts of snow accumulations as well, but current thinking is these snow amounts will be at higher elevations with limited to no impacts in populated or traveled areas. Rain totals through this event at lower elevations will range from 0.10" to 0.50". Despite the relatively lighter rainfall amounts and duration, there remains a low risk (10%- 20%) of even this amount exacerbating recovery efforts through northwestern NM where ground and road conditions remain treacherous from the most recent flooding event.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1233 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Mostly calm and tranquil conditions return by Sunday afternoon, lasting through Monday night. Morning fog over portions of eastern NM may interrupt this each morning however. Attention then points to the next Pacific storm system approaching the region late Tuesday. Current numerical model guidance has coalesced on this storm system lifting northeastward across the Four Corners region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. This has trended precipitation associated with this system being more focused over the northwestern third of the state or so, potentially reaching into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Wednesday through Thursday as now trended drier and breezy to windy.

Late week into next weekend favors what appears to be the season's coldest and largest storm system rolling into the western CONUS. However, largest by geographic area doesn't necessarily mean the strongest in terms of impacts, at least for New Mexico. There appears to be considerable uncertainty regarding the dynamic evolution of this system with a complex set of vortmax spokes rotating around the periphery of the closed low while it to tries to evolve into a Rex Block pattern. Nevertheless, an active weather pattern is favored by next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR with light winds this morning gives way to breezy southerly to southwesterly winds this afternoon. Scattered showers with a few embedded isolated thunderstorms will favor the southwestern half of the state late afternoon and early evening. Have maintained mention of this at nearly all TAF terminals. KABQ/KAEG has a low isolated chance for a thunderstorm outflow gust during the early evening hours from this activity. Thereafter, shower and rain activity shifts focus more to southeastern and east-central NM tonight into Saturday morning, including KROW. Ceilings look to stay low at many locations during that time as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Ventilation improves today with southwesterly transport winds increasing, accompanied by showers with embedded thunderstorms favoring the southwestern half of NM thru this evening. Precipitation spreads to eastern and northern NM Saturday alongside increasing westerly transport winds and still improving ventilation. Wetting rain and high elevation snow will favor much of the northern half of the state Saturday and Saturday night. Calmer winds and and drier conditions will accompany widespread poor ventilation again Sunday afternoon thru Monday. Southwesterlies increase again Tuesday ahead of the next storm system approaching from the west, forecast to bring a glancing bout of showers and some thunderstorms to the northwestern third to half of the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 41 51 32 / 5 60 90 0 Dulce........................... 56 35 45 27 / 0 70 90 20 Cuba............................ 56 36 46 30 / 5 70 80 20 Gallup.......................... 59 35 47 23 / 20 60 90 5 El Morro........................ 56 33 44 25 / 20 40 80 10 Grants.......................... 57 36 48 29 / 50 50 70 10 Quemado......................... 58 35 50 28 / 30 40 40 30 Magdalena....................... 58 38 52 34 / 40 30 30 10 Datil........................... 54 34 47 30 / 30 40 40 20 Reserve......................... 60 38 52 27 / 40 60 40 0 Glenwood........................ 64 40 56 30 / 30 60 50 10 Chama........................... 51 34 40 26 / 0 70 100 30 Los Alamos...................... 55 40 46 32 / 0 50 80 20 Pecos........................... 57 35 48 27 / 5 60 80 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 35 43 28 / 0 30 90 30 Red River....................... 48 29 37 24 / 0 30 90 40 Angel Fire...................... 52 24 42 15 / 0 20 80 40 Taos............................ 57 34 47 26 / 0 30 90 20 Mora............................ 59 33 49 28 / 0 30 70 10 Espanola........................ 62 39 53 30 / 0 40 80 30 Santa Fe........................ 57 39 47 32 / 5 60 90 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 38 50 30 / 0 60 80 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 44 54 37 / 5 50 70 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 43 57 34 / 5 40 60 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 42 59 33 / 5 40 60 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 43 57 36 / 5 50 60 5 Belen........................... 63 40 60 33 / 10 40 40 10 Bernalillo...................... 64 43 57 35 / 5 50 70 10 Bosque Farms.................... 64 39 59 31 / 5 40 60 10 Corrales........................ 64 43 57 36 / 5 50 60 10 Los Lunas....................... 64 39 60 32 / 5 40 50 10 Placitas........................ 61 43 53 36 / 5 50 70 10 Rio Rancho...................... 62 43 57 36 / 5 50 60 5 Socorro......................... 64 43 62 37 / 10 20 30 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 39 48 30 / 10 50 70 20 Tijeras......................... 58 41 50 34 / 10 50 70 20 Edgewood........................ 60 38 52 31 / 10 50 60 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 62 34 54 28 / 10 50 60 10 Clines Corners.................. 58 38 49 32 / 5 40 50 5 Mountainair..................... 60 39 52 31 / 10 40 60 20 Gran Quivira.................... 60 39 52 32 / 10 40 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 64 43 55 36 / 20 70 40 40 Ruidoso......................... 59 38 49 34 / 30 80 40 40 Capulin......................... 58 37 46 32 / 0 10 70 50 Raton........................... 62 35 52 29 / 0 5 80 40 Springer........................ 64 37 56 30 / 0 10 80 20 Las Vegas....................... 61 36 51 29 / 0 40 70 0 Clayton......................... 62 42 49 38 / 0 10 70 80 Roy............................. 60 40 52 34 / 0 30 80 20 Conchas......................... 68 45 61 37 / 0 40 80 10 Santa Rosa...................... 66 44 60 40 / 0 40 40 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 46 61 39 / 0 30 70 10 Clovis.......................... 67 46 60 42 / 0 50 70 30 Portales........................ 68 46 61 42 / 0 50 60 30 Fort Sumner..................... 66 46 62 41 / 0 50 60 10 Roswell......................... 67 48 65 44 / 5 80 5 0 Picacho......................... 64 43 60 41 / 20 80 5 5 Elk............................. 63 40 58 37 / 30 80 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.