textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1011 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Record high temperatures are forecast for many locations daily through Monday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday due to strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1246 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

A shallow frontal boundary draped over northeast NM this afternoon will move southwest then west tonight while low level moisture moves northwest from TX. The latest NBM probs for low stratus have risen over far southeast NM along with increasing chances of patchy fog. Surface winds will then slowly veer out of the south and southwest Monday afternoon as a surface lee trough deepens over southwest CO. Winds aloft will also increase along with greater coverage of cirrus for western NM. Widespread southwest wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph are likely Monday afternoon with low humidity and elevated fire danger. High terrain areas above 9,000' may see local gusts of 40 to 50 mph. High temps will break records again in several locales while trending cooler along the TX/NM border. Winds will remain elevated in the higher terrain Monday night ahead of an approaching H5 low. This will keep min temps well above normal areawide. Low clouds will attempt to return to far southeast NM with another surge of low level return flow.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1246 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

The H5 low will open up while crossing east thru central CO Tuesday. This will force stronger west winds across central and eastern NM with peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Low humidity and above normal temps will again lead to elevated fire danger. Northwest NM will trend cooler as a Pacific front enters the area by the afternoon. No Wind Advisories are expected at this time except perhaps the Clines Corners area. The next backdoor cold front is poised to enter northeast NM Tuesday evening then shift southwest to the central mt chain Wednesday morning. This boundary will trend temps several degrees cooler across the east but still above normal for early March.

Wednesday will be a tranquil day with lighter winds before the next H5 low approaches from the west Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds appear stronger Thursday with the core of 700-500mb layer winds near 30 to 40kt and a 994mb surface low over southeast CO. Temps will warm closer to records again with widespread windy conditions and low humidity. A couple zones may see Wind Advisory level gusts in the north and east but NBM probs are still low at this time. Min temps then trend even cooler Thursday night but still above normal.

Forecast confidence Friday and beyond is still fairly low with how the upper level pattern will evolve across the southwest U.S. The 12Z model suite was in better agreement but there is still a lot of run-to-run inconsistencies with track, timing, and any moisture.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with periods of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds. Low probabilities exist for MVFR cigs to develop at KROW early Monday morning (12-15Z) behind a weak backdoor front, but too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will increase out of the west-southwest Monday afternoon. Gusts to between 20-30kts will be common by late Monday afternoon and KGUP may even gust up to 35kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Another week of elevated to critical fire weather will occur this week with above normal temps, strong westerly winds, low humidity, deeper mixing, and receptive fuel conditions over eastern NM. The main concern is over the Northeast Highlands Monday then over much of eastern NM Tuesday and Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area from near Las Vegas to Springer and Raton on Monday. The Fire Weather Watch for the Gallup to Grants area was cancelled given higher confidence on low ERCs and some lingering snow on north-facing slopes. For Tuesday and Thursday, a larger portion of eastern NM is more likely to see critical fire weather and a Fire Weather Watch will likely be issued overnight for Tuesday. Periodic northerly wind shifts will also enter eastern NM during this time, the first tonight, then again Tuesday night, and again Friday. Beyond Friday, there may be a pattern change toward cooler temps with better moisture and slightly less wind but confidence is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 37 73 38 63 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 28 67 30 60 / 0 0 5 5 Cuba............................ 37 70 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 72 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 71 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 32 75 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 36 75 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 78 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 39 73 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 75 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 35 77 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 59 30 54 / 0 0 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 43 71 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 38 67 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 30 54 34 48 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 27 62 30 54 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 32 69 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 35 69 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 75 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 43 71 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 39 73 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 77 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 79 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 81 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 40 83 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 44 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 39 82 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 43 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 41 82 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 76 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 44 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 85 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 71 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 41 72 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 39 73 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 75 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 72 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 42 74 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 74 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 48 75 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 71 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 71 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 74 35 68 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 29 78 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 72 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 33 73 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 34 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 35 79 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 78 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 35 77 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 40 73 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 74 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 37 75 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 77 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 45 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for NMZ123.