textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Gusty northwest winds up to 55 mph will return to east central New Mexico today, creating difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across much of Chaves County on Wednesday.

- Record warmth across much of the area today through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1221 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

A sfc Low in the TX Panhandle has kept breezes going tonight throughout eastern NM. The boundary layer won't totally decouple so these breezes should continue through the morning, with winds strengthening in the afternoon as sfc heating increases mixing heights. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Central Highlands, Guadalupe/De Baca Counties, and the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains for this afternoon. Winds will likely be of similar magnitude to Tuesday afternoon, with a slightly more northwesterly component. The increase in clouds and mid-level moisture will translate to slightly higher humidities at the sfc which will help to keep fire danger at bay outside of Chaves County and far southern Roosevelt/De Baca counties.

High temperatures will be similar to Tuesday as well, except could be a few degrees higher in southeastern NM where temps could rise all the way into the upper 80s. Roswell is currently forecast to reach 88F, which would shatter the previous record of 85, while locations such as Tucumcari and Clayton are on track to tie or break records as well. A weak backdoor front will slide southward down the plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, dropping temps a few degrees and washing out the pressure gradient enough to keep gusty winds at bay Thursday afternoon. Temperature drops in western and central NM will be less significant or non-exsistent.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1221 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Quiet weather with record warmth will be the story Friday through the weekend as dry northwest flow remains entrenched over New Mexico. Light to moderate breezes can be expected during the afternoon hours, but they won't be strong enough to significantly increase fire danger or create blowing dust. High temperatures each day will be 10 to 20 degrees above average, with the warmest temperatures still forecast for Sunday when the 80s will creep north up the Rio Grande Valley into the southern ABQ metro area. Numerous records are on track to be shattered all around central and northern NM on Sunday.

Long-term guidance is getting into better agreement that a trough will slide southward down California into the desert southwest early next week. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show little differences with regard to the depth/speed of this trough, but cluster analysis suggests the trough could be quite shallow and progressive or slower as it cuts off and becomes stationary over northern Mexico. The slower solution would favor more widespread precipitation early to mid-next week whereas the faster solution would bring less rain/snow and a Pacific front that would likely drop temps back down to near average. Either way, at least light precipitation is likely somewhere in central and northern NM mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Occasional gusts up to 25kt will persist across east central NM overnight. Winds will quickly ramp back up on Wednesday morning, especially along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Gusts near 45kt can be expected across eastern NM, while gusts near 35kt can be expected across western NM and the Rio Grande Valley. An Airport Weather Warning may be needed for the ABQ Sunport Wednesday afternoon. Winds will decrease around sunset.

Otherwise, low level wind shear will continue through the overnight hours across much of eastern NM, including KROW, as well as the Northern Mountains. Otherwise, high clouds will continue to stream across NM through at least mid day Wed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph are likely again in the Central Highlands and Eastern Plains this afternoon, with winds of 10 to 20 mph elsewhere across central and western NM. The stronger winds in eastern NM will create elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, but a subtle increase in moisture is forecast to keep RH above 15% in the East Central Plains and above 20% in the Central Highlands. That being said, if any fires are started in these areas they will likely travel quite quickly off to the southeast.

Winds will be weaker Thursday through the weekend, with widespread elevated to localized near-critical fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain. RH will remain low each day, with minimum values 25% or less everywhere outside of the northern mountains. This along with very warm temperatures will continue to melt the already poor snowpack in the mountains and dry fuels. Fair to good ventilation is forecast for most areas Thursday through Saturday, with greater improvements on Sunday.

There are signs that the pattern will change and bring rain/snow to the area around the middle of next week. There are still significant model differences, but eastern NM will likely be the biggest beneficiaries of the moisture, with lower chances across the west.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 35 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 62 24 61 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 64 34 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 69 33 69 26 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 65 36 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 34 70 28 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 67 36 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 70 43 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 65 38 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 36 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 39 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 57 26 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 64 41 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 66 39 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 34 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 52 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 58 26 55 15 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 65 31 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 65 37 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 72 36 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 67 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 37 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 46 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 44 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 42 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 43 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 78 38 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 74 42 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 77 38 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 75 43 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 78 39 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 70 43 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 75 42 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 81 46 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 41 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 67 42 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 69 41 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 39 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 66 37 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 70 41 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 71 41 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 75 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 47 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 70 30 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 73 32 67 25 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 73 32 69 26 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 72 35 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 78 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 75 36 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 39 76 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 76 41 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 39 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 83 43 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 84 41 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 82 41 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 48 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 48 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 78 47 77 40 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ214-223-233-237.