textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - Pleasant Fall weather remains this weekend, with some showers entering western NM Sunday afternoon.

- Precipitation chances steadily increase next week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday.

- Fast moving storms will threaten strong gusty winds and repeated rounds of rainfall which have a low chance for localized flooding for western and central NM mainly Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Very pleasant weather has befallen New Mexico today with a 578dm H5 low spinning up subtropical moisture into AZ with mostly sunny skies further east over NM. Temperatures are warming up quickly after bottoming out this morning with highs forecast to reach the 60s for many locations this afternoon.

Cloud cover steadily increases tonight from SW to NE over NM as mid to upper level moisture gets pushed over the region from the approaching H5 low. Sunday morning lows will be chilly again, but not as cold as this past morning's observations. As the low begins to open, light showers will enter far western NM through the day Sunday with little to no accumulating rainfall expected. The H5 low opens entirely by Sunday night with some showers continue to progress further over the Four Corners, northwestern highlands, and parts of the middle and upper Rio Grande Valley.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The remnants of the H5 low is modeled to be a shortwave trough by Monday with temperatures and moisture continue to trend higher. Daytime highs climb into the 60s to 70s Monday, and 70s to near 80 for lower elevation areas Tuesday. PWs look to climb to the 0.66" to 0.75" range as well with surface Td's in the 40s to low 50s. This will allow for continue scattered showers with perhaps a stray isolated thunderstorm each of these days mainly over western and central NM.

Stronger large scale ascent and forcing doesn't begin to truly increase until Wednesday with the deepening of a stout upper low digging down the CA coastline. Thunderstorm chances increase notably over western NM Wednesday afternoon as a result. Model guidance advertises the H5 low turning easterly and coming ashore SoCal sometime Thursday or Thursday night. This timing also favors the rounding of vortmax along its southern to southeasterly flank, peaking thunderstorm activity over AZ/NM. Uncertainty regarding the timing of this remains, with higher certainty that there will be ample moisture and large scale ascent available for this feature to generate robust thunderstorm activity over western, northern, and central NM. PW's approaching the 0.90" to 1.00"+ range, which would set daily records at ABQ, thanks to multiple factors from low return flow pushing in moisture from TX and the Gulf as well as a tap of EPAC tropical moisture support the risk of robust rainfall producers during this time. The limiting factor for flooding risk will be fast storm speeds and limited instability due to abundant cloud cover. There remains a low marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the Four Corners and Navajo Nation area as a result.

Thereafter, numerical model guidance diverges considerably between a more progressive pattern with drying and warming conditions and a lagging troughing pattern over the western CONUS continuing precipitation chances toward next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR prevails today with light winds mostly staying light and turning southerly most areas this afternoon. Light and variable winds return tonight into Sunday morning with steadily increasing high level cloud cover over western and central NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Dry weather with light winds and poor ventilation thru the rest of today with steadily increasing cloud cover Sunday alongside light showers entering western NM. Southwesterly winds begin to increase somewhat Monday thru Tuesday with light showers trying to enter western NM, perhaps as far east as the Rio Grande Valley each day. Ventilation improves Monday and Tuesday as well. Moisture increases substantially Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching Pacific storm system progged to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly to western and central NM. These storms will be fast moving, but repeated rounds could still threaten locally heavy rainfall and a low flooding risk. Drier weather is favored to return west to east across the state by Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 42 62 44 66 / 0 0 20 20 Dulce........................... 34 64 37 65 / 0 0 20 20 Cuba............................ 40 62 42 65 / 0 0 10 20 Gallup.......................... 40 64 41 66 / 0 20 30 20 El Morro........................ 36 64 39 64 / 0 20 30 30 Grants.......................... 38 67 41 66 / 0 5 20 30 Quemado......................... 38 68 42 67 / 5 30 20 20 Magdalena....................... 40 65 45 66 / 0 5 10 40 Datil........................... 37 65 42 64 / 0 20 20 40 Reserve......................... 35 70 41 69 / 0 20 20 30 Glenwood........................ 37 73 44 74 / 0 20 30 40 Chama........................... 37 60 39 58 / 0 0 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 40 63 43 64 / 0 0 5 20 Pecos........................... 36 66 40 68 / 0 0 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 65 41 63 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 33 59 34 56 / 0 0 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 19 63 24 61 / 0 0 10 10 Taos............................ 35 65 37 66 / 0 0 5 5 Mora............................ 36 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 35 69 40 71 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 42 63 45 66 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 39 64 43 68 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 46 69 49 72 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 68 47 72 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 70 43 74 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 44 68 48 72 / 0 0 5 10 Belen........................... 38 69 43 73 / 0 0 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 41 70 45 73 / 0 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 36 70 41 74 / 0 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 42 70 46 74 / 0 0 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 37 70 42 73 / 0 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 44 67 47 70 / 0 0 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 43 68 47 72 / 0 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 44 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 63 42 66 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 40 64 44 68 / 0 0 5 10 Edgewood........................ 36 67 41 69 / 0 0 5 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 69 39 71 / 0 0 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 38 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 36 64 42 67 / 0 0 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 36 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 41 65 49 70 / 0 0 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 37 66 45 67 / 0 0 5 30 Capulin......................... 37 69 42 67 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 31 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 30 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 35 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 43 67 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 38 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 36 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 38 70 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 37 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 37 70 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 35 68 44 75 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 37 70 45 76 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 36 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 37 72 45 75 / 0 0 0 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.