textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms today may produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts. A few severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts. - Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central New Mexico.

- There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness in eastern New Mexico through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Isolated storms have begun to develop over the high terrain of western NM early this afternoon. Skies this morning were clear, which has allowed for slightly more destabilization compared to yesterday. For this reason, storms should grow taller, although wetting footprints may be slightly smaller. The 18Z Sounding at KABQ has the same PWAT as yesterday (0.92"). The Sounding has more CAPE than yesterday though which is consistent with the early radar/satellite trends. Strong outflow wind gusts will once again be the primary hazard today and a few storms could produce damaging winds. Bulk shear is in the 20 to 30 knot range so most storms will be disorganized, but a few could sustain themselves in northern NM, particularly in the northeastern portion of the state. The overall flash flood threat will be low, with the exception being urban and other vulnerable areas, including the Albuquerque metro where storms will likely roll through during the late afternoon and evening, similar to yesterday. Dust storms are less likely given the rainfall from yesterday and overnight, but still cannot ruled out localized blowing dust from some of the stronger outflows. Storms will weaken in the evening, but a few lingering showers can be expected in central and northern areas through around Midnight again.

The trough over The Great Basin will dig southeastward Saturday, placing dry SW flow over New Mexico. The main dry slot will remain off to the west over Arizona & Utah, but humidities will still be very low in the western portion of the state. 700 mb winds will peak around 40 knots in western NM late Saturday afternoon, although there is a notable spread of around 10 knots in the guidance. Nonetheless, with efficient, deep mixing expected, opted to issue a Wind Advisory for western NM, including Gallup, and far northern NM, including Chama and Taos. Winds will struggle to weaken overnight in the high terrain, particularly the Sangre de Cristo mountains where Ridgetops should remain gusty through the night into the morning hours.

While Saturday will be mostly dry, a few storms may develop in the far SE portion of the state. Additionally, some hi-res models are showing very isolated virga showers in the central portion of the state during the afternoon. While none of this rain would reach the ground, a few strong outflow wind gusts could impact any ongoing or new fires.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Sunday will be very similar to Saturday, with dry southwest flow over New Mexico out ahead of the Great Basin trough. It will once again be windy, with southwest gusts of 30 to 50 mph commonplace. The dryline will be hanging out across far SE NM where a few afternoon and evening storms may develop. Temperatures in western and central areas will be near seasonal normals, with temps around 5 degrees above average in eastern NM. Southerly flow develops Monday as the trough off to the NW begins to retreat northward. This will draw moisture north and westward. This moisture plume will likely set up over eastern NM mid to late week, with increasing rain chances for areas within the plume. Models have notably trended further east with this moisture plume, keeping most of western and central NM dry. The monsoon high will attempt to develop over the region next weekend, which should help to draw more moisture in from the south and east.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across much of central and north central New Mexico early this evening with more sparse and isolated activity in the eastern plains. Stronger storms will be capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts to 50 kt, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours. Activity will slowly diminish and die off through the evening hours. Drier, stronger prevailing southwest winds develop on Saturday with gusts of 25 to 35 kt being common and higher gusts near 40 kt over and near the northern high terrain. The drier air will limit storms on Saturday with only a very few isolated cells developing in southeastern areas of the state. A few high-based showers cannot be ruled out over central to north central areas (KABQ-KSAF-KSKX) Saturday afternoon. These high-based showers will produce minimal, if any, rainfall at the surface, but could enhance wind gusts down to the surface.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will develop around central and northern NM with strong and erratic outflow wind gusts the primary hazard. Spotty wetting rainfall will be beneficial, but only enough to create very isolated fuel improvements. Drier weather returns on Saturday, with strong southwest flow developing out ahead of a Great Basin trough. Gusty southwest winds of 30 to 50 mph will prevail around the region, with the strongest gusts in the high terrain of western and northern NM. Winds will be slow to diminish Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating over the high terrain, with gusty winds spreading into the lower elevations again during the late morning and afternoon hours. Wind speeds Sunday will be very similar to Saturday, except slightly stronger in the northeast. The Fire Weather Watch for Sunday was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning so a Red Flag Warning is now in effect for much of central and northern NM both days this weekend. There are several active fires around the state and holdover fires from lightning the past few days may spread quickly upon the increase in winds. The only chance of rain over the weekend will be in the southeast corner of the state, although cannot rule out a rogue gusty virga shower in central NM both days.

Winds will trend lower into the early portion of next week, but the fire weather concerns will stick around as conditions remain dry. Concerns will focus over the northeast where max RFTI values will be in the 3 to 5 range both Monday and Tuesday. A moisture plume will slowly push north and westward mid to late next week, allowing for increased rain chances in eastern NM. Models have trended further east with this moisture plume, corresponding to drier weather over central and western areas. Southerly breezes will stick around through the week, but winds should remain below critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 92 59 91 / 30 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 86 46 86 / 70 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 86 53 86 / 50 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 51 87 52 86 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 53 85 53 84 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 52 89 53 88 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 86 55 86 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 89 61 89 / 30 0 0 0 Datil........................... 57 85 57 84 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 52 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 57 95 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 80 46 80 / 90 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 86 62 86 / 60 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 54 87 58 87 / 50 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 82 55 83 / 70 10 0 0 Red River....................... 45 73 48 73 / 70 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 77 44 78 / 60 0 0 0 Taos............................ 48 85 52 86 / 60 5 0 0 Mora............................ 52 83 54 85 / 40 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 55 93 58 93 / 60 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 88 61 87 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 91 58 90 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 93 67 93 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 94 62 94 / 30 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 96 61 96 / 30 5 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 94 64 95 / 40 0 0 0 Belen........................... 57 97 60 97 / 30 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 61 95 64 95 / 40 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 96 59 96 / 30 5 5 0 Corrales........................ 61 95 64 96 / 40 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 96 61 96 / 30 5 5 0 Placitas........................ 61 92 65 92 / 30 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 94 63 95 / 40 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 64 99 66 99 / 20 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 88 60 87 / 30 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 58 90 61 90 / 30 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 54 91 58 90 / 30 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 92 56 92 / 20 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 87 58 87 / 30 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 56 91 59 90 / 20 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 90 60 90 / 20 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 93 66 92 / 20 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 85 62 84 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 88 56 89 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 52 91 55 92 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 55 93 58 94 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 56 88 60 88 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 97 65 97 / 30 0 0 0 Roy............................. 58 92 61 93 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 64 101 67 101 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 97 66 97 / 20 0 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 102 70 101 / 20 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 66 99 70 99 / 20 10 20 10 Portales........................ 67 101 70 100 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 64 100 67 100 / 30 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 69 104 70 104 / 5 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 64 97 65 96 / 5 5 5 5 Elk............................. 62 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ101-104- 105-109-120-121-123-125.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-104- 105-109-120-121-123-125.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ202-205-210- 216.