textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms.

- A low risk of severe storms exists through this evening across northeast and east central New Mexico. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations through Saturday, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Storms have begun to develop over the high terrain this afternoon. However, dewpoints in the 20s across northern and western NM will result in storms producing more wind than rain. However, dewpoints in the 50s across eastern NM, combined with modest MLCAPE (~500-1000J/kg) and around 30-35kt of 0-6km bulk shear will allow for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. The favored area will be across northeast NM where shear is greatest. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main concerns. Storms will shift southeastward through the evening, though several models show precipitation lingering across eastern NM through the overnight hours as a weak disturbance rounds the east side of the upper high. Severe weather will be favored prior to 9pm. The storms are expected to produce an outflow boundary that pushes westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain overnight. Should this occur, it would bring east (southeast) canyon winds to Albuquerque (Santa Fe) gusting near 35 mph.

The upper high will track across the Four Corners on Saturday on its way to WY. Despite gaps winds, it will remain dry across much of northwest and west central NM. However, moist east to southeasterly flow across eastern NM will help drive storms to develop along the Central Mountain Chain by early afternoon. Storms that develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will track toward the south or southeast, while storms across the Southwest and South Central Mountains will tend to move toward the west. Of course, outflow boundaries may cause storm motions to be erratic at times. Localized damaging wind gusts will be a concern and hail cannot be ruled out with a few stronger storms. PWATs will increase a bit over today. PWATs between 0.8 and 1.1 inches will favor the southeastern half of the CWA. Therefore, localized heavy rainfall is also possible in this area. Storms across eastern NM will generally continue to track south or southeast through midnight before diminishing or moving into Texas. Another outflow boundary emanating from these storms will push westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Saturday night. Attm, gaps winds look a bit stronger than what they will be tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the South Central Mountains, and in particular, areas within and downstream of the Ruidoso area burn scars between noon and 6pm Sat. This is a lower confidence watch. Hi-res models all show storms in the area, but models disagree with precipitation amounts and storm location to the point where it's tough to pinpoint whether or not the burn scars themselves will be affected. However, there are enough meteorological concerns (high PWAT, slow storm motion, H5 flow paralleling the ridgeline, moist low level southeasterly flow into the area) combined with known outdoor events that we felt a Flash Flood Watch was prudent and will heighten awareness.

Where storms will be scarce, the heat will be on again Saturday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Farmington area where high temperatures should reach triple digits once again. Areas within the ABQ Metro will be close, but should end up just shy of advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The upper high will be over Wyoming on Sunday and deep layer easterly flow will be firmly across New Mexico. PWATs will increase above 0.8" for most areas and weak perturbations in the flow should set off isolated to scattered storms nearly areawide. Similar conditions are expected for Monday. The upper level pattern becomes quite complicated Tuesday through the end of next week as multiple disturbances may (or may not) be in play to increase storm potential. For now, it looks like daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue. The risk for burn scar flash flooding will remain low to moderate daily.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon over the southwest and south central mountains as well as across northeast NM. Storms across the southwest and south central mountains will be capable of gusty winds in excess of 35kt and brief heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, a few strong to severe storms will impact northeast NM with wind gusts in excess of 45kt, hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Brief MVFR vsbys will be possible under one of these storms. Storms will gradually shift toward the south and east through the evening, but storms will linger across eastern NM through much of the overnight hours. These storms will also send a convective outflow boundary south and west through this evening. This boundary may push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain with gusts near 30kt at both KABQ and KSAF overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Very dry conditions will persist today and will develop again on Saturday across northwest NM. With temperatures climbing into the 90s and low 100s, RH values will fall into the single digits for as much as 6 to 10 hours both today and Saturday. Fortunately, winds will remain light. Thus, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds as well as brief heavy rainfall. Storms today will shift toward the south and southeast. On Saturday, storms forming over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will shift toward the south and southeast, but storms elsewhere may have more erratic storm motions. Moisture increases areawide on Sunday, thus better chances for wetting rainfall, but gusty and erratic winds will remain possible. Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will persist through the end of next week though storm coverage will vary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 50 95 54 94 / 0 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 56 94 59 90 / 0 10 5 40 Gallup.......................... 54 97 60 93 / 0 0 0 30 El Morro........................ 56 93 59 88 / 0 5 0 20 Grants.......................... 55 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 20 Quemado......................... 60 93 60 89 / 10 5 5 30 Magdalena....................... 65 92 64 88 / 10 5 5 10 Datil........................... 60 89 60 85 / 10 5 10 20 Reserve......................... 56 96 56 92 / 10 20 10 50 Glenwood........................ 60 98 58 94 / 20 30 20 60 Chama........................... 47 86 50 86 / 0 10 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 64 88 64 85 / 0 10 5 30 Pecos........................... 56 88 56 87 / 5 50 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 87 55 86 / 5 20 5 30 Red River....................... 44 77 46 76 / 10 50 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 39 79 40 79 / 10 60 10 30 Taos............................ 54 89 54 89 / 0 20 5 30 Mora............................ 53 84 53 83 / 10 60 10 30 Espanola........................ 62 98 63 94 / 0 5 5 30 Santa Fe........................ 62 90 61 88 / 0 20 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 93 60 91 / 0 10 5 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 97 66 93 / 5 20 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 98 69 94 / 0 10 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 99 65 96 / 0 5 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 98 67 95 / 5 5 5 20 Belen........................... 66 100 64 96 / 0 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 67 99 66 96 / 0 5 5 30 Bosque Farms.................... 65 99 62 95 / 0 5 5 20 Corrales........................ 67 100 66 97 / 0 5 5 30 Los Lunas....................... 65 99 63 95 / 0 5 5 20 Placitas........................ 67 95 68 91 / 0 10 5 30 Rio Rancho...................... 68 99 67 95 / 0 5 5 20 Socorro......................... 71 100 70 97 / 5 5 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 92 61 88 / 5 20 10 30 Tijeras......................... 62 92 61 90 / 0 20 10 30 Edgewood........................ 60 92 59 89 / 5 30 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 93 54 90 / 5 40 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 88 56 84 / 10 60 40 20 Mountainair..................... 60 92 59 89 / 5 40 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 91 59 87 / 10 40 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 65 89 / 20 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 83 58 81 / 20 40 20 30 Capulin......................... 54 84 54 84 / 50 50 20 20 Raton........................... 55 90 54 89 / 30 50 10 20 Springer........................ 55 90 54 90 / 20 50 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 84 53 84 / 20 60 20 20 Clayton......................... 61 90 62 91 / 60 20 20 20 Roy............................. 59 87 59 87 / 30 60 50 20 Conchas......................... 64 95 64 94 / 50 50 40 10 Santa Rosa...................... 64 92 63 90 / 20 50 60 10 Tucumcari....................... 67 96 65 94 / 60 20 40 10 Clovis.......................... 66 94 65 91 / 40 10 30 20 Portales........................ 67 96 66 92 / 30 10 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 68 96 66 92 / 20 20 40 20 Roswell......................... 71 97 69 93 / 10 10 50 20 Picacho......................... 65 92 64 88 / 20 10 20 20 Elk............................. 61 88 60 85 / 10 20 20 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219>221.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ201.

Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226.