textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Slow moving thunderstorms will threaten flash flooding on recent burn scars and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area and Seven Cabins burn scars today.

- Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico will threaten frequent lightning, severe gusts, and large hail this afternoon and early evening. - Scattered weak showers and isolated dry thunderstorms over west- central to southwestern New Mexico will threaten strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Convection had largely exited east central NM by midnight with just some remnant stratiform rain decaying thereafter in southeastern-most counties. A weak shortwave trough or circulation is modeled over northeastern NM this morning, but its difficult to pinpoint on water vapor imagery due to so much anvil cirrus over this area of the state. This feature is projected to slide northeastward into the evening, and likely will not do anything to enhance todays round of convection, but rather could impede some development over the far northeast corner of the state due to residual cloud cover and then subsidence on the back side of it. Otherwise, the other feature of interest is the weak low circulation offshore of southern CA which will drop over the Baja peninsula this evening, not really coming into play for NM weather until this weekend.

The low layer moisture will have a bigger impact on todays weather, dictating where convection will fire, and higher dewpoints have advanced farther into western NM and the Four Corners region. The winds aloft will be lighter and more variable in direction today, posing difficulties for storms to move off of the Continental Divide and other western high terrain areas. The dewpoints and PWATs are also more modest in these areas (0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs), and these moisture profiles will not be conducive to heavy rainfall in these western zones. The lower PWAT values in the northwest plateau area will likely not even support much measurable rain. The HREF and REFS indicate that the central mountain chain should destabilize early this afternoon with cells rolling southeastward and conglomerating into multicellular clusters, eventually moving over the eastern plains by the early evening. Short range ensembles also agree that the aforementioned subsidence from the remnants of the weak circulation in northeast NM may impede convective coverage there. Convection will be concentrated in southeastern zones by the late evening with cells decaying through midnight and the early morning hours Thursday.

As for the Lincoln county burn scars, the short range ensembles and individual CAMs have a consensus for two rounds of storms, one that initiates off the high terrain in the early afternoon, followed by another early evening multicellular batch that propagates in from the northwest. The Flash Flood Watch time frame captures this well, so no changes are planned at this time.

More dry air looks to wrap into the northwestern half of the forecast area on Thursday, limiting storm potential there. This will put the focus for slow-moving storms over the southwestern mountains, the central mountain chain, and a tertiary area of Chaves county. With the low moving into the Gulf of CA, there is potential for a weak deformation zone to develop over Chihuahua and southern NM. This could provide some stretching aloft that might assist storms, but overall the crop should be considerably more subdued on Thursday. The Sacramento mountains will be an initiation point again, so Flash Flooding will still be a clear and present danger Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The low over the Gulf of CA is now modeled to move slower through the end of the week, only trekking into Chihuahua by Friday before lifting into west TX on Saturday, largely bypassing NM. Fridays convection will consequently favor similar areas to Thursday, but the aforementioned deformation zone would slide northeastward, likely not doing much to enhance storm initiation. The central mountain chain eastward would then be favored for storms Saturday where relatively higher PWATs (0.8 to 1.0 inch) will be hanging on. More drier air would build in on Sunday as the remnants of the low move farther into the central Great Plains with the ECMWF being more aggressive with the drying.

A deep upper level trough over or just offshore of the northwestern ConUS will come into the picture Monday with higher heights and ridging trying to hold ground over NM. Long range ensemble means show the low/trough moving inland over the intermountain west through the middle of next week with the ridge holding over south central states and NM, but individual deterministic members reveal starker differences in moisture profiles. Blended POP guidance from the NBM retains isolated to scattered storm coverage favoring the high terrain by Tuesday and Wednesday with climatology leaning toward the central mountain chain eastward for this time of year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Thunderstorms will redevelop early this afternoon over much of northern and central New Mexico, except the northwest plateau near KFMN. Storms west of the central mountain chain will be not produce quite as much rain, but will be capable of packing a punch in the form of downburst wind gusts to 50 kt. Areas along and east of the central mountain chain will produce heavier downpours with small hail, frequent lightning, and typical gusty winds accompanying. Storms will initiate over the high terrain of western and central New Mexico early Wednesday afternoon, gradually filling in to portions of the Rio Grande valley and other nearby lowlands. Activity will then spread into the eastern plains late in the afternoon and into the evening hours, focusing toward southeastern New Mexico (KROW, KCVN) before midnight tonight. A gradual clearing trend will then follow in most locations.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Deeper moisture is planted over the eastern half of NM, but increased moisture has advanced toward AZ and the Four Corners with dewpoints climbing into the 30s and low 40s. This will cause thunderstorms to initiate a bit farther to the west today, but the western fringe of these storms will be less efficient at producing wetting rainfall at the surface due to drier sub-cloud profiles. This will keep a looming concern for dry storms and new lightning ignitions in far western NM today while the eastern half of the state accumulates more wetting rainfall. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms is still modeled to reduce significantly into Thursday and Friday as drier air works in from the northwest with storms favoring the southwestern mountains and the central mountain chain each day. By Saturday, storms will mostly stay along and east of the central mountain chain, followed by a drier spell with fewer storms Sunday and Monday. Confidence is low that storms will return into the middle of next week, but isolated to scattered cells cannot be ruled out over the high terrain. Outflows from thunderstorms will still pose the primary wind concerns through the next week with western areas observing their driest spell Friday through the weekend when afternoon RH will plummet to 10 to 15 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 89 55 91 55 / 5 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 81 41 86 43 / 30 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 77 48 84 51 / 40 20 10 0 Gallup.......................... 82 46 87 48 / 20 5 5 0 El Morro........................ 77 48 82 51 / 60 10 10 5 Grants.......................... 79 48 86 51 / 50 10 10 5 Quemado......................... 79 49 84 52 / 50 20 10 5 Magdalena....................... 77 53 80 57 / 80 30 10 5 Datil........................... 75 50 80 52 / 70 20 30 5 Reserve......................... 83 47 88 48 / 60 20 50 10 Glenwood........................ 86 50 91 51 / 60 20 60 20 Chama........................... 74 40 79 43 / 50 20 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 74 53 80 57 / 60 40 30 5 Pecos........................... 72 47 81 49 / 70 50 30 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 47 80 51 / 60 20 10 10 Red River....................... 65 39 71 43 / 70 20 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 69 39 75 43 / 80 20 40 10 Taos............................ 76 46 82 49 / 60 20 10 5 Mora............................ 69 46 79 48 / 80 50 40 5 Espanola........................ 82 52 88 56 / 40 30 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 75 52 81 56 / 50 40 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 51 84 54 / 40 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 59 87 64 / 50 30 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 57 88 61 / 40 30 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 57 90 60 / 40 30 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 57 88 61 / 40 20 0 5 Belen........................... 85 56 89 58 / 30 20 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 84 56 89 61 / 40 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 84 57 89 57 / 40 30 0 5 Corrales........................ 85 57 90 61 / 40 20 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 85 57 89 59 / 40 30 0 5 Placitas........................ 79 56 85 61 / 40 30 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 84 56 89 61 / 40 20 0 5 Socorro......................... 87 58 90 62 / 50 20 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 52 82 57 / 60 30 5 5 Tijeras......................... 77 52 82 56 / 60 40 5 5 Edgewood........................ 76 49 83 54 / 60 40 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 47 84 51 / 60 40 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 72 48 79 52 / 60 50 20 5 Mountainair..................... 76 49 82 54 / 70 50 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 76 50 79 54 / 50 50 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 80 57 81 60 / 40 50 40 5 Ruidoso......................... 70 52 74 54 / 80 50 80 5 Capulin......................... 69 45 78 48 / 30 20 20 5 Raton........................... 74 48 82 50 / 40 20 20 5 Springer........................ 75 49 82 51 / 40 30 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 70 48 79 50 / 60 50 40 10 Clayton......................... 73 52 83 55 / 30 20 5 0 Roy............................. 70 50 80 53 / 40 30 20 10 Conchas......................... 78 55 86 58 / 50 50 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 77 52 82 55 / 50 50 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 78 56 86 59 / 50 40 20 10 Clovis.......................... 76 57 83 59 / 50 50 50 10 Portales........................ 77 57 84 59 / 50 50 60 10 Fort Sumner..................... 78 55 83 58 / 40 50 20 5 Roswell......................... 83 59 84 61 / 40 60 20 20 Picacho......................... 76 54 81 55 / 50 50 60 5 Elk............................. 73 53 81 54 / 80 40 80 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.