textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Diurnal rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on Friday across northeast NM.

- Hotter temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms developed across the high terrain late this morning and early this afternoon. Storms will continue to increase in coverage through early evening as storms move off the high terrain onto lower elevations by way of outflow boundaries and outflow boundary collisions. Typical monsoon hazards are expected with these storms, including brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and perhaps small hail. Storms across north central and northwest NM will generally be drier since PWATs remain around 0.5-0.7" vs. the 0.8 to 1.0" further south and east. Storms across east central NM late this afternoon and early this evening may produce an outflow boundary that pushes through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain. A period of stronger easterly gap winds may impact the ABQ Metro area. This would also help push moisture westward once again. All storms are expected to slowly diminish after sunset with most precipitation done by midnight.

On Tuesday, the upper level high will move little from today, remaining centered near the NM/AZ border. Storm coverage will be similar to today, if not a touch higher across northern and northwestern areas as PWATs continue to slowly climb in this area. Storms will again erupt over the high terrain initially. Drier air pushing into eastern NM will focus the moisture plume and thunderstorm activity across central and western areas. Once again, brief heavy rainfall and gusty/erratic winds will be the main concerns with any storm. Also like today, storms should end by the midnight hour.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

On Wednesday, the upper high will shift westward and elongate over the eastern Pacific. Modest westerly flow will bring drier air to northwest NM, and lean the moisture plume over, favoring areas from southwest to northeast NM. This will mean less precipitation coverage across northwest NM, and if storms form, they will be drier in nature. Also there's potential for more precipitation coverage across northeast NM. The drier air will continue to push into the state on Thursday as the upper high centers off the coast of SoCal but remains elongated over NM. The dry air will disrupt the moisture plume further and storm coverage will trend downward and favor areas east of the Central Mountain Chain. The lack of storms and cloud cover will allow temperatures to soar, with many lower elevation areas in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern NM reaching triple digits.

The upper high begins to nudge back eastward on Friday, but drier air will remain in place west of the Central Mountain Chain. An outflow boundary will press into NE NM and this boundary will be a focus for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will also be a focus thanks to moist upslope flow behind the boundary. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Over the weekend, the upper high will strengthen and shift northeastward near the UT/CO border and eventually over WY. While models yesterday were showing drying conditions over NM, now models are indicating that a disturbance will either round the upper high into NM, or the storms on Friday night will result in an MCV that will slowly tracks westward across NM through the weekend. These scenarios would like result in an uptick in precipitation, rather than a downtick. Confidence is low right now, but stay tuned.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Remnant sprinkles and mid level clouds late this evening will give to way gradual clearing thru sunrise Tuesday. SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain btwn 11am and 1pm then move slowly south and west into nearby highlands and valleys thru the late afternoon and evening. Direct hits will be capable of strong outflow wind gusts, brief moderate to heavy rain, patchy BLDU, and lightning strikes. Areas with the higher chances Tuesday will focus btwn the Cont Dvd and the central mt chain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, with drier storms favoring northwest NM. Storms will develop over the high terrain before shifting over nearby lowlands. Storm motions through tonight will generally be light toward the south, but slow and erratic motions can be expected Tuesday and with outflow boundaries each day. Drier air nudges into northwest NM on Wednesday and makes a better push across western and central NM Thursday into Friday limiting storm coverage. A boundary across northeast NM will be a focus for storms on Friday, however. Models are now indicating a disturbance will cross NM over the weekend from east to west, which may provide an uptick in storm coverage, rather than a downtick that we were previously expecting. Stay tuned.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 64 97 65 98 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 51 92 50 94 / 10 20 20 10 Cuba............................ 57 91 57 92 / 10 20 30 5 Gallup.......................... 56 92 56 93 / 5 20 10 20 El Morro........................ 56 86 57 87 / 5 40 10 40 Grants.......................... 56 90 56 92 / 10 40 10 40 Quemado......................... 59 88 59 89 / 20 50 20 30 Magdalena....................... 63 87 64 89 / 10 30 30 40 Datil........................... 58 85 59 86 / 10 60 20 60 Reserve......................... 54 92 54 94 / 30 60 30 40 Glenwood........................ 57 96 58 98 / 20 60 20 50 Chama........................... 49 84 48 86 / 5 40 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 63 85 62 87 / 20 40 30 40 Pecos........................... 55 88 55 91 / 10 40 20 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 85 55 87 / 10 40 30 20 Red River....................... 48 75 47 77 / 10 50 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 42 81 43 82 / 10 60 30 60 Taos............................ 54 88 53 89 / 10 30 20 20 Mora............................ 53 83 53 86 / 10 50 30 50 Espanola........................ 61 94 60 96 / 10 30 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 61 88 61 90 / 10 30 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 91 58 93 / 10 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 96 66 98 / 10 20 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 96 65 97 / 10 10 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 97 63 99 / 10 10 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 97 66 98 / 10 10 30 10 Belen........................... 63 98 63 99 / 10 5 30 5 Bernalillo...................... 65 97 65 99 / 10 10 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 61 96 61 98 / 10 10 20 5 Corrales........................ 65 97 65 99 / 10 10 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 62 96 62 98 / 5 10 20 5 Placitas........................ 66 92 66 94 / 10 20 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 96 66 98 / 10 10 20 10 Socorro......................... 69 99 70 101 / 10 5 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 88 61 91 / 20 30 30 20 Tijeras......................... 61 90 61 92 / 20 30 30 10 Edgewood........................ 58 89 58 92 / 20 30 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 91 54 94 / 20 30 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 86 57 89 / 20 30 30 20 Mountainair..................... 58 90 59 92 / 40 20 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 59 88 60 90 / 60 10 30 10 Carrizozo....................... 65 91 65 93 / 40 20 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 85 59 86 / 20 20 5 30 Capulin......................... 55 86 56 88 / 10 20 10 40 Raton........................... 53 91 53 93 / 10 20 20 40 Springer........................ 55 92 55 93 / 10 20 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 56 87 56 89 / 10 40 20 40 Clayton......................... 62 94 64 97 / 0 0 10 20 Roy............................. 60 89 61 92 / 10 5 10 40 Conchas......................... 64 97 66 100 / 20 0 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 63 93 64 96 / 20 0 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 65 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 65 94 67 96 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 66 97 68 98 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 96 68 98 / 5 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 68 98 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 62 93 64 94 / 5 0 0 10 Elk............................. 58 88 60 90 / 5 0 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.