textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms will favor locations along and east of the Continental Divide through this evening and Monday. A few storms may become severe with a risk of blowing dust west of the central mountain chain. The risk of severe storms will shift to eastern areas Monday.

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon and evening, then again Monday. - Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday with an increasing risk of rapid fire spread, especially across northwest New Mexico.

- Hazardous heat is forecast for parts of the eastern plains and central valleys Wednesday afternoon and early evening, with high temperatures challenging daily records.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Daytime heating initiated convection is underway across the area, fueled by richer low layer moisture from the backdoor front that moved west through the central mountain chain overnight. The 18Z KABQ upper air sounding showed a PWAT of 0.95", which is over the 90th percentile for the day and is forecast to increase into this evening and approach daily record values. So, plenty of juice in the atmosphere for efficient rain-making and heavy downpours. The SPC expanded the day 1 marginal risk for severe storms north up the RGV to north of Los Alamos based on the latest models showing 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts this afternoon, with muCAPE in excess of 1,300J/kg. The latest CAMs show the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros getting hit between 3-7PM, with a potpourri of impacts including strong/erratic and potentially damaging wind gusts, significantly reduced visibility in blowing dust, hail, cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours. Meanwhile east of the central mountain chain, well below average temperatures are holding with areas of low stratus in the frontal layer. KSSR is currently 57 degrees and the atmosphere is too stable to produce notable convection. However, storms that develop in/near the lower RGV are modeled to move east toward Ruidoso late afternoon through the evening hours and bring a quick round of rain to the burn scars, but impacts are forecast to remain limited at this time.

Monday will be warmer overall, helping to generate greater instability by afternoon. Increasing northwest flow over the region will keep bulk shear values supportive of supercell type storms and the SPC day 2 convective outlook shows a marginal risk for severe storms across much of eastern NM. The latest NAM is particularly bullish on the northeast and east central plains getting hit late Monday, with muCAPE of 2,500J/kg, LIs of -7C and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-45kts.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Increasing northwest flow aloft will bring drier and hotter conditions Tue/Wed, due partially to gusty downslope winds. That said, we can't rule out isolated storms across the northeast plains Tuesday afternoon where low level moisture will linger longer. Wednesday is trending hotter and the latest GFS MOS values are impressive, showing highs of 101 in Albuquerque, 108 in Tucumcari and 112 in Roswell! Needless to say, we're looking to challenge daily record highs on Wednesday and will likely require Heat Advisories and perhaps an Extreme Heat Warning for the Chaves County Plains including Roswell. Another backdoor front will take the edge off of the heat across eastern NM on Thursday, while areas west of the central mountain chain remain hot with potential for virga showers and dry storms. Similar conditions are forecast Friday under the influence of high pressure aloft, although storms that develop Friday afternoon will lean more wet than dry given increasing PWATs. The upper high is forecast to weaken and give way to drier westerlies next weekend, although low level easterly flow will bring renewed chances for storms across northeast NM by late Sunday. Otherwise, hot conditions will prevail over the weekend with temperatures a few degrees above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low stratus behind a backdoor front across eastern NM is producing areas of MVFR cigs, which will be stubborn to improve today. Thunderstorms are already underway across the northern mountains and are forecast to expand in coverage and intensity between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain this afternoon, impacting the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace with blowing dust, strong and erratic wind gusts, heavy downpours, cloud to ground lightning and some hail. Any showers/storms that impact KFMN or KGUP this afternoon will favor strong/erratic wind gusts and blowing dust over other hazards. KROW is forecast to improve to VFR this afternoon, then deteriorate overnight to MVFR with potential for short-lived IFR conditions in rain early Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Good chances for wetting storms will persist into the evening hours between the Continental Divide and the eastern highlands. Storms west of the Continental Divide will favor strong and erratic wind gusts over wetting rainfall, with the potential for lightning ignitions. Chances for wetting storms will persist Monday and focus further east across the area. Increasing dry northwest flow aloft will expand east across the region from Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing an end to daily rounds of wetting storms and creating good chances for critical fire weather conditions, focusing across northwest NM. Hot and gusty conditions on Wednesday will be conducive for large fire growth. A backdoor front will bring higher humidity to eastern NM Thursday and renew chances for wetting storms across the area going into Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 92 55 95 / 10 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 85 44 90 / 30 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 84 53 88 / 40 20 5 0 Gallup.......................... 54 89 51 92 / 10 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 54 85 52 89 / 20 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 53 88 51 92 / 30 20 5 0 Quemado......................... 56 87 55 90 / 10 10 5 0 Magdalena....................... 59 84 60 89 / 30 50 20 0 Datil........................... 57 84 57 88 / 10 20 10 0 Reserve......................... 52 89 50 94 / 10 20 5 0 Glenwood........................ 55 93 54 97 / 10 30 10 5 Chama........................... 44 78 43 84 / 50 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 80 59 87 / 50 40 10 0 Pecos........................... 49 81 51 88 / 50 40 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 74 48 84 / 70 70 20 0 Red River....................... 43 66 41 75 / 70 60 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 72 37 80 / 70 50 10 0 Taos............................ 50 78 49 87 / 60 50 10 0 Mora............................ 48 76 48 85 / 70 40 10 5 Espanola........................ 55 86 56 93 / 50 30 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 54 81 55 89 / 50 40 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 85 54 92 / 50 30 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 88 64 94 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 89 63 96 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 91 60 98 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 90 62 96 / 40 20 10 0 Belen........................... 59 91 60 98 / 40 20 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 91 60 96 / 50 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 91 58 98 / 40 20 10 0 Corrales........................ 59 91 61 97 / 40 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 91 58 98 / 40 20 10 0 Placitas........................ 60 88 61 93 / 50 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 90 62 96 / 40 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 64 91 65 98 / 30 30 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 84 57 89 / 50 20 10 0 Tijeras......................... 56 85 58 91 / 50 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 53 86 55 91 / 40 20 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 87 50 92 / 40 20 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 50 81 53 88 / 40 20 20 0 Mountainair..................... 53 85 56 91 / 40 30 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 53 84 55 90 / 40 20 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 84 61 93 / 40 20 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 76 55 84 / 60 50 20 5 Capulin......................... 46 74 49 85 / 70 70 30 10 Raton........................... 47 79 48 90 / 60 50 20 5 Springer........................ 49 80 49 91 / 70 70 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 50 77 50 88 / 60 50 20 10 Clayton......................... 53 78 56 90 / 50 40 30 20 Roy............................. 51 76 53 89 / 70 50 40 10 Conchas......................... 56 84 58 97 / 40 30 30 5 Santa Rosa...................... 56 83 57 95 / 40 30 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 56 84 60 97 / 30 20 40 10 Clovis.......................... 57 81 60 93 / 30 10 30 10 Portales........................ 58 82 60 94 / 30 10 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 57 84 60 96 / 30 20 20 5 Roswell......................... 63 86 64 97 / 30 10 20 0 Picacho......................... 57 82 58 93 / 40 40 30 5 Elk............................. 54 80 56 89 / 50 60 30 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.