textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico will produce erratic wind gusts and dangerous lightning with localized moderate rainfall amounts today and tonight.

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds pick up this afternoon mostly through western New Mexico where peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph will develop.

- Light rain becomes more confined to northwestern and southeastern NM Monday and Tuesday while breezy to windy conditions become more common.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

New Mexico remains entrenched between an amplifying synoptic troughing pattern down the Pacific coastline and the western tier of an area of high pressure over the Gulf and eastern Mexico. Strengthening SW flow has brought in a dryslot punching in behind the wake of TC Rachel's remnants to AZ, expected to slide eastward over NM through Tuesday. Despite the drier air aloft, there remains abundant boundary layer moisture, highlighted by Td's in the 40s and 50s through eastern AZ and into NM. This is allowing for the observed showers and thunderstorms developing along the Mogollon Rim early this afternoon. HiRes CAMs continue to depict this convective activity tapping into modest instability of 250-750 J/kg of SBCAPE over the area and strong shear, expanding over western NM and reaching into the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ and then Santa Fe and Los Alamos by the late afternoon and thru the evening. These will be fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms, limiting the potential for rainfall totals, but will threaten strong and erratic gusts of 40 to 50mph.

Speaking of wind gusts, strengthening southwesterly gusts have already picked up and are outperforming guidance at Gallup. Recent observed gusts there have prompted the hoisting of Wind Advisories along the AZ border from the Chuska Mountains southward through Gallup to the southwest mountains in Catron County. Gusty S/SW winds will also spread thru the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon before most areas see winds subside late this evening and overnight. Winds tonight also look to increased sharply along the Johnson/Bartlett Mesas near Raton Pass as a strong H7 jet crosses the area. However, elevated winds here looked to be too isolated to warrant the issuance of a Wind Advisory there overnight.

Monday sees the remnants of Rachel finally get ejected out over the northern Great Plains with the highly amplified H5 trough closing off a low over northern NV and southeastern OR, with an attendant vortlobe spinning around its southern periphery over southern CA. This vortlobe feature will act to bring much of the energy associated with overall SW/NE flow over the Desert Southwest closed to AZ and UT Monday, shifting shower and thunderstorm activity back that way for much of Monday. Strong southwest winds remain over NM with the aide of another lee side surface trough developing over eastern CO. But overall wind speeds look to be a step weaker relative to Sunday afternoon. Winds taper off Monday night with showers spreading back into the northwestern quadrant.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Tuesday begins the long term with continued dryslotting over much of NM, with showers still favoring the northwestern quadrant closed to the H5 closed low over UT. This continues into Wednesday morning before another vortmax rounds the southern periphery of the H5 low through northern NM. This will bring a Pacific cold front west to east across most of the state with any attendant showers favoring the northern mountains with a light snow dusting or perhaps an inch or two atop the highest peaks. A Fall crisp will greet morning goers by Thursday morning with northern valley areas potentially seeing their first freezes of the season.

Thereafter, numerical model and AI model solutions are coming into much better agreement regarding the dynamic evolution of the H5 low. The core portion of the H5 low looks to get picked up and ejected out by the polar jet over the northern Great Plains with a small section of it being pinched off over northern NM, closing off and retrograding westward toward southern AZ by Thursday evening. This will yield a cold front backing south and westward through eastern NM, now favored to advance thru the gaps of the central mountain chain thru to western NM Thursday night and Friday morning. Uncertainty arises regarding how much moisture there will be advected northward into the TX Big Bend and Caprock regions. There is considerable uncertainty now regarding TC Simon's forecast track, either shift southwestward and moving offshore, or having its remnants pulled northward into the aforementioned regions. Coverage and intensity of precipitation through southeastern NM for Friday and into next weekend will greatly depend on how that unfolds.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Isolated to scattered gusty showers and storms will favor central NM this evening, moving quickly off to the NNE at around 30 knots. While intensity is generally lacking, these will briefly mix down stronger wind gusts upwards of 40 knots down to the surface.

S/SW winds will diminish after 02Z, with a light southerly breeze hanging on through the night in most areas. LLWS is likely tonight in the northeastern corner of the state and around the northern mtns. Showers will linger across northwest NM through the night into Monday. Outside of a few showers across far northwest and southeast New Mexico Monday, the region will remain dry. South to southwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be commonplace around the area Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Strengthening southwesterly winds each afternoon today through Tuesday will bring elevated fire weather conditions to much of central and northeastern NM. However, remaining low level moisture and higher humidity will be the limiting factor for any fire weather concerns. Good to excellent ventilation will also be the rule through Tuesday thanks to the stronger wind speeds and mixing.

Transport winds switch northeasterly to easterly by Thursday behind a surface cold front backing thru eastern NM. This front will advance westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain to western NM late Thursday into Friday morning. An increased precipitation is favored for eastern NM Friday and into next week, but there remains considerable uncertainty for how much of an increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 52 72 51 66 / 20 10 40 60 Dulce........................... 41 66 40 62 / 80 40 40 60 Cuba............................ 46 68 45 65 / 30 10 5 10 Gallup.......................... 44 68 44 63 / 30 10 30 30 El Morro........................ 42 67 41 63 / 30 10 5 10 Grants.......................... 46 71 45 68 / 20 5 0 5 Quemado......................... 46 68 45 66 / 20 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 50 72 49 71 / 20 5 0 0 Datil........................... 46 67 43 65 / 20 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 69 46 67 / 60 20 20 20 Glenwood........................ 52 73 50 72 / 60 30 20 20 Chama........................... 41 60 40 55 / 90 30 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 50 68 49 65 / 40 5 5 5 Pecos........................... 47 70 46 68 / 50 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 65 45 63 / 70 20 10 5 Red River....................... 39 57 36 55 / 80 10 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 37 64 33 62 / 60 10 5 5 Taos............................ 45 68 43 65 / 60 10 5 5 Mora............................ 44 70 41 68 / 40 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 50 75 49 73 / 40 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 51 70 49 68 / 60 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 72 48 70 / 40 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 77 56 76 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 78 54 77 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 80 54 79 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 78 55 77 / 30 0 0 0 Belen........................... 54 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 79 54 77 / 30 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 53 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 56 80 54 78 / 30 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 57 75 55 74 / 30 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 56 79 54 77 / 30 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 82 53 81 / 20 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 70 48 68 / 30 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 52 72 50 70 / 30 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 50 73 48 71 / 30 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 75 46 74 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 71 50 70 / 20 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 50 72 48 70 / 20 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 51 72 49 70 / 20 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 76 57 75 / 40 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 71 50 69 / 40 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 52 73 49 72 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 47 77 44 75 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 48 79 46 77 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 72 48 70 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 54 77 53 76 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 86 60 85 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 82 57 80 / 20 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 87 62 86 / 20 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 62 88 62 86 / 10 0 10 5 Portales........................ 63 88 63 87 / 5 5 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 60 86 60 85 / 30 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 62 90 62 90 / 40 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 57 85 57 84 / 30 5 0 0 Elk............................. 55 82 55 81 / 30 0 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-206-208.