textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Hot, dry, and breezy-to-windy conditions that increase the risk of rapid fire spread across the northwest plateau today, will expand to more of Western and central New Mexico Wednesday as winds strengthen further.

- Hazardous heat is forecast in the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley Wednesday, and also across the east-central and southeast plains, as high temperatures challenge daily records.

- Thursday and Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase the risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and mostly dry microburst wind gusts with blowing dust west of the central mountain chain, and wetter storms with a low risk of flash flooding below burn scars from the central mountain chain eastward.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Very dry northwest winds will strengthen today and high temperatures will climb 2 to 9 degrees above 1991-2020 averages in the wake of the upper level trough that clipped northeast NM on Monday. Hotter, drier, and windier conditions will then develop Wednesday as northwest flow aloft strengthens south of an upper level trough exiting the northern Rockies. High temperatures Wednesday will reach 5 to 15 degrees above average with record and near record readings over central and eastern parts of the forecast area. The heat will become hazardous Wednesday afternoon in the central valley as readings peak in the low to mid 100s from Albuquerque southward, and also across the east central and southeast plains. Dangerous heat is forecast in Roswell where the mercury should reach around 110 F. With this forecast package we will issue an Extreme Heat Watch for Chaves County Wednesday.

There will also be fire weather concerns both days. Will continue the Red Flag Warning in effect for the Northwest Plateau this afternoon and early evening, where humidities will plummet into the single digits as northwest wind gusts peak as much as 40 mph. The strong northwest winds will spread to more of western and central NM on Wednesday, and as far east as the Central Highlands, as humidities bottom out in the single digits almost areawide. The highest northwest wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will probably reach around 45 mph near Navajo Lake and on I-40 around Clines Corners.

There is a 15-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon over the southwest mountains including Glenwood, where a weak upper level trough moving inland over southern CA will steer some elevated subtropical moisture. Some of these cells will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts to 50 mph with little or no rainfall reaching the surface.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The extreme heat will be shortlived, since a moist backdoor front will dive southward through the eastern plains Wednesday night, then westward into the central valley on Thursday. With a ~ 1012 mb surface high pressure system on the western Great Plains propagating it, the front is likely to produce wind gusts up to 45 mph on the eastern plains late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, then east wind gusts below canyons opening into the central valley up to 40 mph on Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to fall as much as 19 degrees from Wednesday's readings on the eastern plains, and a few to 5 degrees central and west.

The low level moisture increase with the front, and modest amounts of elevated moisture streaming over the forecast area from the southwest with the approaching upper level trough, should enable isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the central mountain chain, and along and south of a line from Gallup to Albuquerque. There should be quite a few gusty virga showers along and west of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon and evening, with some dry lightning in the mix. Wetting showers and storms look to favor areas east of the central mountain chain, with operational runs of deterministic models (that won't be incorporated into the NBM until later today) depicting most of the activity over the east central and southeast plains. A southeasterly return flow of low-level moisture will continue to increase over eastern areas Thursday night and Friday, then the upper level trough will finally pass overhead on Friday and Friday evening producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, except for numerous cells over and just east of the south-central mountains, and more isolated activity farther west. Once again, gusty virga showers and dry storms currently look to be the most common mode of convection west of the central mountain chain on Friday, except for storms with small wetting footprints in the mountains.

On Saturday, a significant downtick in thunderstorm coverage is expected at least in the west, and probably also in the east with the upper trough finally shifting east of NM. However, the operational runs of the latest deterministic models suggest there will still be enough low level moisture for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday. Wetting footprints should be pretty small, since a drier upper level trough crossing the southwest US will begin to steer significantly drier air over NM by Saturday afternoon. The upper trough will strengthen the flow aloft over western NM Saturday afternoon causing fire weather concerns to redevelop west of the central mountain chain. By Sunday, fire weather concerns may spread to include eastern areas as well, depending on how much the flow aloft strengthens. The drier air Saturday and Sunday should enable high temperatures to climb a few to several degrees above average.

Models are in surprisingly good agreement that a moist backdoor cold front will plunge southwestward through the eastern plains Sunday night, and into the central valley by Monday morning, enabling showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon, with the potential for spottier and drier activity as far west as the continental divide.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A few patches of low clouds producing MVFR and low VFR conditions on the eastern plains early this morning will burn off during mid morning. Otherwise, much drier air will arrive today, enabling temperatures to climb several degrees above 1991-2020 averages. This will make density altitude and important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain. In addition, northwest winds will become gusty over central and western areas this afternoon, with the strongest gusts reaching around 35 KT in the Farmington and Navajo Lake area. Wind speeds will weaken with sunset this evening. Late tonight, strengthening northwest flow aloft will lead to some low level wind shear developing mainly over and just east of mountain ranges, but also with a southwesterly low level jet on the far east-central and southeast plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Aside from the critical fire weather conditions over the Northwest Plateau this afternoon and early evening, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are also forecast elsewhere along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Central Highlands. The ongoing Fire Weather Watch still looks appropriately positioned for Wednesday, when gusts will probably reach around 40 mph in many locations, and around 45 mph in Corners, as mixing heights soar between 14-17K FT. The concern Thursday through Friday will become erratic thunderstorm outflows and the risk of dry lightning. This concern may linger along and east of the central mountain chain on Saturday, as critical fire weather conditions threaten to return farther west. Critical fire weather conditions may become more widespread on Sunday if the flow aloft strengthens enough with the upper trough moving into the western US.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 58 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 91 45 94 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 56 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 89 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 93 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 89 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 88 63 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 95 52 93 51 / 0 0 40 10 Glenwood........................ 98 56 97 55 / 0 0 30 10 Chama........................... 85 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 76 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 45 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 88 51 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 86 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 94 57 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 89 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 63 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 99 62 103 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 61 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 64 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 62 102 66 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 93 66 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 101 71 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 92 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 57 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 88 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 92 59 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 91 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 94 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 86 53 92 53 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 91 52 97 55 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 92 53 97 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 90 58 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 90 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 89 57 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 98 61 104 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 95 63 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 65 105 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 66 103 66 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 96 67 105 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 97 63 104 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 99 66 110 75 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 65 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 91 62 97 66 / 10 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ238.