textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds each afternoon and evening over parts of eastern New Mexico through Thursday.

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding will occur with the strongest storms over northeast and east central New Mexico each afternoon and evening through Thursday.

- Record and near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Storm coverage will peak over northern and eastern NM thru Thursday as moisture deepens westward beneath a 598dm H5 high shifting into southwest NM.

The 18Z KABQ RAOB showed a PWAT of 0.85" with a weak inversion near 450mb, H5 temps of -8C, and west-southwest steering flow of 10-20KT. Surface dewpoints are hovering in the 40s at 1pm, even over eastern NM. Strong storms are forming over northeast NM and will intensify downstream into a more unstable airmass with improving shear. The latest SPC mesoscale discussion has the potential for wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph and large hail later today. There is an 80% chance of a Severe T-Storm Watch for northeast NM. 12Z CAMs and prob QPF show higher rainfall amounts in northeast NM as well (>1"). Soil moisture is very low so the risk for flooding is also low outside of training cells in this part of the state. Moisture will shift west tonight on convective outflows and allow PWATs to rise into Wednesday. An overall repeat in the storm pattern is likely both Wednesday and Thursday but with steering flow becoming more north to south each day. 72-hr QPF values may exceed 3" in localized parts of northeast NM but the flood risk should remain low unless repeat rounds occur in areas that have rainfall rates >2"/hr. Temps will trend a few degrees cooler each day thru Thursday but many near-records or records are still possible. Any storms that form across central and western NM the next 2 days will be mostly dry with strong downburst wind gusts likely.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A downtick in storm coverage is expected Friday as high pressure migrates northeast into central NM. Greater subsidence with lower PWATs and even hotter temps are expected. Most storms will focus over the high terrain with more strong downburst winds possible.

Beyond Friday, extended models are in good agreement weakening the monsoon high slightly while it shifts east into west TX ahead of an approaching upper level trough. The focus for showers and storms may shift to northern and western NM Saturday and Sunday. Max temps will trend hotter again in this pattern over eastern NM.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with low probabilities for short-lived MVFR conditions in iso/sct storms across eastern NM this evening and again on Wednesday. A gusty east canyon wind is forecast to develop at KABQ overnight, but with speeds remaining below Airport Weather Warning threshold. Strong/erratic wind gusts are likely with showers and storms through Wednesday, but otherwise winds will remain light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The greater chances of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will focus along and east of the central mt chain thru Thursday. Central and western NM will be drier with brief rain and strong downburst winds as the main threat. New fire starts are still possible from any lightning strikes in dry fuels. Burn scar flooding may also occur in areas with repeated rounds of heavy rain. The focus for storms will shift back into northern and western NM Friday thru Monday as high pressure shifts east into TX. Record-to-near-record heat will continue for much of the region thru early next week. The European Center extended model is hinting at a potential fire weather pattern for northwest NM for the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 96 66 95 / 5 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 49 92 48 92 / 5 5 10 10 Cuba............................ 58 91 57 89 / 10 10 20 10 Gallup.......................... 55 92 56 91 / 5 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 55 88 56 87 / 10 20 10 20 Grants.......................... 58 91 58 90 / 10 20 30 40 Quemado......................... 58 90 59 89 / 10 20 10 20 Magdalena....................... 64 89 63 88 / 10 20 20 40 Datil........................... 60 87 59 85 / 10 20 20 40 Reserve......................... 58 97 59 95 / 5 5 10 30 Glenwood........................ 65 102 66 100 / 5 0 5 20 Chama........................... 52 85 51 84 / 10 20 10 40 Los Alamos...................... 63 86 59 86 / 20 50 40 40 Pecos........................... 58 87 56 87 / 10 50 50 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 84 54 84 / 20 50 50 30 Red River....................... 46 82 45 80 / 20 60 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 41 80 39 80 / 20 70 70 50 Taos............................ 53 89 52 86 / 10 50 50 30 Mora............................ 53 82 51 83 / 10 60 60 50 Espanola........................ 61 94 59 92 / 10 40 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 88 60 86 / 10 30 40 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 91 59 90 / 10 30 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 95 65 94 / 10 30 40 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 96 65 95 / 10 30 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 98 64 98 / 10 20 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 98 67 96 / 10 20 30 5 Belen........................... 66 99 65 97 / 10 20 30 5 Bernalillo...................... 68 98 66 97 / 10 30 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 65 99 63 97 / 10 20 30 5 Corrales........................ 68 99 66 98 / 10 30 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 66 99 65 97 / 10 20 30 5 Placitas........................ 67 93 63 92 / 10 30 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 66 96 / 10 30 30 5 Socorro......................... 72 102 70 99 / 5 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 88 59 86 / 10 30 50 20 Tijeras......................... 63 92 60 90 / 10 30 40 20 Edgewood........................ 60 92 57 91 / 10 30 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 93 55 92 / 10 30 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 60 87 56 87 / 10 40 40 30 Mountainair..................... 60 92 57 90 / 10 30 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 60 91 58 89 / 10 30 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 68 96 66 93 / 5 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 62 87 58 85 / 5 30 10 60 Capulin......................... 55 82 54 82 / 60 80 50 40 Raton........................... 53 85 53 85 / 50 80 60 50 Springer........................ 55 86 54 86 / 30 70 60 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 85 55 84 / 20 70 60 50 Clayton......................... 63 85 61 87 / 60 30 40 20 Roy............................. 59 85 58 84 / 40 60 60 20 Conchas......................... 65 94 64 93 / 40 40 60 10 Santa Rosa...................... 65 91 62 90 / 30 30 60 20 Tucumcari....................... 66 93 63 92 / 40 20 40 10 Clovis.......................... 67 97 65 94 / 30 10 60 20 Portales........................ 68 97 66 94 / 20 10 60 20 Fort Sumner..................... 67 97 65 95 / 20 10 60 10 Roswell......................... 70 101 69 98 / 5 0 40 5 Picacho......................... 65 95 63 93 / 5 20 30 20 Elk............................. 64 94 61 92 / 5 40 10 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ236-238.