textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026 - Patchy fog will produce low visibility in the Moreno Valley early this morning, and on parts of the eastern plains.

- Thunderstorms producing cloud-to-ground lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and brief locally heavy rain will favor portions of eastern New Mexico through Friday.

- There will be a 25% chance of rainfall capable of producing flash flooding below the Seven Cabins Burn Scar in the Capitan Mountains today.

- Locally critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread along and west of the middle Rio Grande Valley, and across the northwest plateau, Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1250 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

An upper level low pressure system over central CA will remain stalled there today, then lift northeastward tonight, and reach UT on Friday. The upper low induced easterly upslope flow over eastern NM overnight resulting in widespread low clouds and some patchy fog on the east central and northeast plains. These will diminish around mid morning today. A patchier episode of low clouds and fog looks to return to the northeast corner of NM tonight.

With low-level moisture in place and brisk south and southwest flow aloft over NM, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the central mountain chain and adjacent high plains this afternoon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms (65%) will be over the fire-ravaged Capitan Mountains. The high resolution HREF and REFS Ensembles both indicate a 25% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain accumulation on the Capitan's Seven Cabins Wildfire and Burn Scar this afternoon. This would be a mixed blessing if it were to pan out, because the burn scar and steep terrain would likely result in rapid runoff and some potentially significant flash flooding. According to high res models the most likely rain amount/timing on the fire/scar will be around 0.25" from 1-5 PM MDT this afternoon.

As this afternoon transitions to evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue along and just east of the central mountain chain, and also spread eastward across the eastern plains. The best chance for any strong to severe storms this afternoon and early evening will be along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, and also across the far northeast plains, where 0-6 KM bulk shear will reach around 25-30 KT with surface based CAPE around 1200-1500 J/KG. Models then keep a 15-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over east central and southeast areas through the late night hours and Friday morning.

Friday and Friday night, the weakening upper low lifting northeastward out of UT will sweep a dry slot through NM producing an active dryline and another round of showers and thunderstorms. The latest models favor the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast plains, and east central plains for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with more isolated activity westward to the central highlands and Capitan Mountains. Except near the eastern NM border, rain amounts should generally be lighter on Friday compared to today's storms. However, a broader area of 25-30 KT bulk shear is expected on Friday afternoon and early evening with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across much of the eastern plains.

Otherwise, south and southwest winds will be gusty today, especially west of the central mountain chain. On Friday, wind speeds will strengthen areawide with the strongest gusts probably peaking around 40 mph around Gallup and Gran Quivira. High temperatures will generally trend a few to 12 degrees warmer today compared to Wednesday, then readings will cool a few degrees over western and north central NM on Friday as the upper low crosses UT.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026 Dry southwest flow aloft will pervade the weekend with seasonably gusty winds each afternoon until sunset. After some continued cooling central and west on Saturday, temperatures will rebound Sunday when high temperatures will vary from a few degrees below average along NM's western border to as much as 5 degrees above average along the eastern border.

Monday and Tuesday, a moist return flow of Gulf moisture will develop as a ridge of high pressure builds over the TX panhandle. The latest NBM indicates a 15-30% chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast highlands, spreading eastward across the northeast highlands and plains Monday evening. However, the latest operational run of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian Models, which have yet to be ingested by the NBM, all indicate the moist return flow will enable showers and storms to develop elsewhere on the eastern plains Monday afternoon and evening; potentially as far west as the south central mountains. Tuesday through midweek will feature daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms as the influx of Gulf moisture persists, and an upper level trough potentially forms a closed upper level low pressure system as it sweeps slowly eastward across the southwest US. It looks like the Four Corners may miss out on this moisture, but the southwest mountains and locations along and east of the central mountain chain stand a good chance of accumulating a half inch to over an inch of rain, with quarter to half inch amounts from the central valley to the continental divide of west central and northwest NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will continue to produce MVFR and IFR conditions until mid morning east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains to NM's eastern border. Early this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the central mountain chain and adjacent high plains. Movement will be toward the north and northeast at speeds around 15-30 KT. Late this afternoon and tonight, scattered to isolated showers and storms will continue along and just east of the central mountain chain, and also spread eastward to NM's eastern border. Additionally this evening, there will be a slight chance of gusty and isolated showers west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to Navajo Lake. Tonight, areas of low clouds and fog will probably return to the northeast corner of NM, including Clayton, but probably not as far west as Raton.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Minimum humidities west of the central mountain chain will plummet near and below 15 percent daily through Monday, then humidities will trend upward there Tuesday and Wednesday. South and southwest winds will become gusty west of the central mountain chain this afternoon, then breezy in many locations Friday afternoon when locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the Northwest Plateau, West Central Mountains, West Central Basin and Range, and Middle Rio Grande Valley. Wind gusts will mostly vary around 30-35 mph in these areas Friday afternoon as humidities plummet from 7-12 percent, and ERCs vary from 65-75th percentiles. If the wind speed forecast strengthens in future model runs, these locations will warrant a Red Flag Warning for Friday afternoon. Otherwise, winds don't look to be much of a concern, except for erratic thunderstorm outflow with timing described in previous sections of this Forecast Discussion. In addition, some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are likely from Albuquerque northward to the CO border Friday afternoon, and also over western areas as Gulf moisture arrives there on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 87 51 83 45 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 43 79 36 / 5 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 78 47 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 40 78 37 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 44 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 81 44 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 78 45 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 54 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 76 48 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 81 41 80 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 45 85 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 74 41 72 35 / 5 10 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 76 55 76 50 / 5 10 5 5 Pecos........................... 79 48 78 44 / 20 30 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 49 74 43 / 5 20 10 10 Red River....................... 69 38 66 36 / 10 20 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 72 36 69 28 / 20 20 30 20 Taos............................ 78 48 76 43 / 0 20 20 10 Mora............................ 75 47 74 43 / 30 30 30 20 Espanola........................ 84 52 84 44 / 5 20 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 79 54 78 47 / 10 20 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 52 82 45 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 60 84 55 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 59 85 54 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 53 88 46 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 58 86 53 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 88 55 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 57 86 52 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 87 52 87 46 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 87 56 87 52 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 53 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 83 58 82 53 / 10 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 58 85 54 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 60 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 55 79 50 / 10 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 81 55 81 50 / 10 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 80 53 80 48 / 10 5 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 47 82 44 / 10 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 76 51 77 47 / 20 20 20 5 Mountainair..................... 81 51 81 48 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 52 79 48 / 10 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 58 82 56 / 20 5 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 75 51 76 48 / 40 20 10 5 Capulin......................... 73 47 73 43 / 20 20 20 20 Raton........................... 77 48 78 43 / 30 30 30 20 Springer........................ 79 50 79 45 / 30 20 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 76 49 76 45 / 30 30 30 20 Clayton......................... 78 53 81 51 / 10 20 20 20 Roy............................. 76 52 77 48 / 20 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 84 57 84 53 / 10 20 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 81 56 82 53 / 20 20 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 85 58 85 55 / 5 20 40 20 Clovis.......................... 85 58 84 55 / 10 20 30 20 Portales........................ 87 59 86 56 / 10 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 85 57 84 54 / 10 20 30 20 Roswell......................... 88 61 89 57 / 20 30 20 5 Picacho......................... 82 56 85 54 / 30 30 10 5 Elk............................. 81 53 82 52 / 30 30 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.