textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more showers, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and mountain snow favoring western and northern New Mexico. Gusty winds may create difficult travel for high-profile vehicles over eastern New Mexico. A few to several inches of snow in the northern mountains may create slick travel and reduced visibility, especially over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

An elongated 560dm H5 low off the central CA coast this morning is forcing a deep fetch of subtropical moisture and associated 110kt speed max into the southwest CONUS. Surface dewpoints have climbed into the 30s and 40s over much of AZ and NM early this morning and top down-moistening will continue saturating the column thru this evening. Despite thick clouds spreading into the area today, temps will be warmer given stronger downslope flow with a 992mb surface low over northeast NM. MOS guidance suggests wind gusts may reach close to 50 mph (Wind Advisory) around Clines Corners but REFS, HREF, and NBM probs are too low to support issuing at this time.

Moisture advection will continue tonight with PWATs reaching from 0.50 to 0.75" over southern and western NM (+2 to 3 std deviations above climo). The subtropical speed max will increase to near 120kt by Tuesday morning with favorable dynamics in place to allow at scattered showers to develop late tonight along and west of the central mt chain. These showers will expand in coverage over northern and western NM Tuesday. Deterministic models, including the HREF and REFS, have trended toward higher QPF thru Tuesday evening but the NBM 50th percentile is struggling to show wetting precip (>0.10") during this period. Meanwhile, stronger winds aloft will translate to high chances for a Wind Advisory for Lincoln and southwest Chaves counties Tuesday (gusts 45-55 mph expected).

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

The focus will shift to the northern stream upper wave approaching from western CO Tuesday night and Wednesday. Guidance is coming into better agreement showing the Pacific wave shearing apart ahead of the northern stream wave along with a stronger backdoor cold front entering northeast NM thru Wednesday. This second wave is a much colder system with 700mb temps falling to between -3 and -6C over northern NM thru Wednesday night. Meanwhile, lift is improving for rain and mountain snow to develop over northern NM and especially the northeast plains in the wake of the backdoor cold front. The latest NBM is still struggling to catch up but snow amounts from several models are trending higher into the 3-6" range for the Sangre de Cristo Mts eastward along the Raton Ridge. A Winter Wx Advisory may be needed if trends continue. Snow levels would fall to near 8,000 ft with these colder temps aloft Wednesday. Colder air behind the front Wednesday night may also require a couple Freeze Warnings for parts of eastern NM. The entire system appears to exit into west TX by Thursday morning. Folks with plans to travel into the high terrain of northern NM and across I-25 at Raton Pass on Wednesday and Wednesday night are encouraged to stay up to date on the latest forecast.

By Thursday, northwest flow aloft is expected over NM in the wake of the departing storm system. A weak upper low may be drifting over AZ as a lingering remnant that pinched off from the initial Pacific storm system. It is still uncertain how this low or baggy trough will impact precip chances over our area as it drifts east thru Friday. PoPs did trend lower with warming temps and partly cloudy skies. Overall forecast confidence remains low into the weekend as troughing may remain active along the Front Range while a strong ridge amplifies off the west coast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

A Pacific storm system approaching from the west will spread thick mid and high level clouds over NM today with stronger west winds, areas of LLWS, and turbulence. Strengthening mt waves along the east slopes of the central mt chain may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph this afternoon, especially between KLVS, KCQC, and KSRR. Clouds will continue lowering tonight with showers developing from south to north across western and central NM. Some of this activity may produce brief MVFR cigs along and west of the Cont Divide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for the next 7 days. Spotty wetting rainfall occurred around Catron and Socorro counties the past 24 hours along with a few dry lightning strikes farther north along the Cont Divide into northwest NM. Today will be mostly cloudy and warmer with stronger west winds compared to Sunday (gusts 25-40 mph). Elevated to locally critical fire weather will occur in a few areas but recent rain, lower RFTIs, lower ERCs, and mostly cloudy skies will help to decrease the overall risk. Rain and mountain snow chances increase late tonight through Wednesday as a Pacific storm system crosses the area. The greater chances for wetting precip will be along the Cont Divide, over the northern mountains, and northeast NM. Snowfall amounts of 3-6" are expected in the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the Raton Ridge. A strong warming trend is advertised by the weekend as a dry ridge builds along the West Coast. However, confidence is low in the extended pattern as models have been very inconsistent the past several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 74 46 65 40 / 0 5 30 30 Dulce........................... 69 35 64 31 / 10 5 40 50 Cuba............................ 69 41 62 32 / 5 10 60 40 Gallup.......................... 71 41 60 31 / 0 20 60 20 El Morro........................ 68 41 59 32 / 0 30 60 20 Grants.......................... 72 43 64 33 / 0 20 60 20 Quemado......................... 70 42 61 32 / 5 30 60 10 Magdalena....................... 71 47 67 38 / 5 20 50 5 Datil........................... 67 42 61 34 / 5 20 60 5 Reserve......................... 72 39 66 30 / 5 30 60 5 Glenwood........................ 78 42 70 34 / 5 40 60 5 Chama........................... 62 32 58 30 / 10 5 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 69 47 60 39 / 5 10 50 40 Pecos........................... 70 42 64 35 / 0 10 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 40 61 35 / 5 5 40 50 Red River....................... 56 34 52 29 / 10 5 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 62 30 56 28 / 5 5 50 50 Taos............................ 70 35 63 34 / 5 5 40 50 Mora............................ 68 39 64 34 / 5 5 40 30 Espanola........................ 76 45 69 39 / 5 10 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 71 45 64 38 / 0 10 40 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 44 66 37 / 0 10 40 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 51 69 44 / 0 10 50 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 52 70 43 / 0 10 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 51 72 41 / 0 10 50 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 53 71 43 / 0 10 50 30 Belen........................... 80 51 73 39 / 5 20 50 10 Bernalillo...................... 79 52 71 43 / 0 10 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 80 49 72 38 / 0 20 50 20 Corrales........................ 80 53 71 42 / 0 10 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 80 51 72 40 / 0 20 50 20 Placitas........................ 75 50 67 43 / 0 10 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 79 52 71 43 / 0 10 50 30 Socorro......................... 82 54 76 43 / 5 20 40 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 46 64 39 / 0 10 50 40 Tijeras......................... 73 47 64 40 / 0 10 50 30 Edgewood........................ 74 45 66 37 / 0 20 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 43 68 35 / 0 20 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 71 44 64 36 / 0 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 74 45 66 37 / 5 20 50 10 Gran Quivira.................... 73 45 66 38 / 5 20 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 74 53 68 45 / 5 20 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 69 48 63 42 / 0 20 30 5 Capulin......................... 70 39 59 32 / 0 0 60 60 Raton........................... 73 41 65 34 / 0 0 50 50 Springer........................ 75 44 69 35 / 0 0 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 71 42 65 37 / 0 0 30 20 Clayton......................... 80 44 64 36 / 0 0 30 50 Roy............................. 75 46 68 37 / 0 0 40 20 Conchas......................... 83 52 77 42 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 78 53 73 43 / 0 0 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 86 53 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 Clovis.......................... 85 57 78 47 / 0 0 5 5 Portales........................ 86 58 79 48 / 0 0 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 85 57 78 46 / 0 0 10 5 Roswell......................... 88 58 83 50 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 80 53 74 46 / 0 5 10 0 Elk............................. 78 51 71 44 / 0 5 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.