textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 755 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Strong northerly winds with gusts near 50 mph will impact far eastern NM behind a cold front early Thursday morning.

- Thursday and Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase the risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and erratic wind gusts with localized blowing dust. The best chance for wetting precip will be along and east of the central mountain chain, with a moderate risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars on Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Model guidance has been consistent at bringing strong winds behind the cold front to eastern NM. The strongest winds are forecast to be across Curry and Roosevelt counties where a few gusts to 50 mph are expected. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Thursday morning hours. NPW already out.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Hot, dry, and windy basically summarizes the forecast this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds have begun to mix down to the surface and will continue through the afternoon into the evening hours. 700 mb winds trend stronger this evening into the overnight hours (30 to 40 kts) so the boundary layer will be slow to decouple tonight. Today will be the hottest day of the year thus far in many locations, including Albuquerque and Roswell where record highs will be threatened.

Far southwest NM is on the fringes of an area of subtropical moisture that will very slowly push northward this afternoon. A small pocket of instability in this area should spark at least a few storms, although most of the rain will struggle to reach the surface. Inverted-V soundings could support an isolated severe gust or two in southwest Catron County given how dry and deep the boundary layer is.

A backdoor front will enter northeast NM late tonight, pushing southward into the eastern plains by late morning. The pressure gradient associated with this boundary is quite impressive so there may be a few gusts upwards of 55 mph with its passage in Curry and Roosevelt Counties. Weak cold air advection will keep temps a bit lower in the wake of this frontal passage tomorrow afternoon with the largest temperature drop in the northeast where temps should struggle to reach 80F. The leading edge of the boundary will reach the central mountain chain by the early afternoon and upslope flow should spark at least isolated convection. Intensity should be on the lower side given the modest instability so the flash flood risk for the Ruidoso area burn scars remains low. Instability will be more robust in southeast NM (sfc based CAPE >2000 J/kg), although this instability may not get tapped into until the late evening hours thanks to storm boundary collisions.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Subtropical moisture will spread northward across New Mexico on Friday, translating to an uptick in storm coverage during the afternoon. Furthermore, global models are in good agreement that a shortwave will trek across the state from west to east, helping to enhance convection along the central mountain chain. Instability will be maximized in the eastern plains so storms will likely intensify late afternoon into the evening as they move eastward. However, bulk shear less than 30 kts will be the limiting severe factor.

Westerly flow takes over this weekend, keeping the state dry and hot. Temperatures should remain below Advisory thresholds, with moderate heat risk in most areas below 7,000 feet. Sunny skies will prevail and it will be the highest sun angle of the year during the solstice so the UV index will be dangerously high.

A backdoor frontal passage replenishes moisture across eastern NM early next week. The interaction of this moisture with northwest flow will likely create a severe threat each afternoon Monday through at least Wednesday across the northeastern third of the state. Areas west of the central mountain chain will remain under the influence of a strong high pressure, keeping the hot and dry weather around.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this evening across the Southwest Mountains, but will gradually wane with sunset. Strong northwest winds with gusts between 25 and 35 kt a cross western and central NM will also persist through sunset before waning, except around KROW where strong westerly winds will persist. Light winds across eastern NM early this evening will rapidly increase after 09Z Thu as a back door cold front races trhough the eastern plains. Gusts in excess of 40kt are expected behind the front through Thursday morning. As the front backs up to the Central Mountain Chain, isolated to scattered storms will develop along the east slopes Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, a mix of wet and dry storms will develop across the west central and southwest mountains. Gusty winds in excess of 35kt will be the main concern with any storm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today will be hot, dry, and windy across the western two-thirds of New Mexico. RFTI values range from 4 to as much as 9 across the Northwest Plateau, which is particularly concerning considering that ERCs are above the 90th percentile in this area. Gusty northwest winds aloft trend stronger into the evening and overnight hours so surface winds will likely remain gusty well into the evening hours, especially over the high terrain of the Continental Divide.

A strong backdoor front pushes into northeast NM overnight, surging southward Thursday morning and creating wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph with its passage. There will be an uptick of moisture in its wake, but the more substantial increase in moisture will be across the southwest as subtropical moisture is slowly advected northward from Mexico. Isolated showers and storms will favor the southwest mountains and the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon, with an uptick in coverage focused over the same areas on Friday.

Drier weather returns on Saturday and sticks around through Sunday. A light southwest to west breeze along with hot and very dry conditions will create widespread elevated to near critical conditions both days. Humidity recoveries will be very poor over the weekend, with 10 to 15 hours of single digit relative humidity across much of western and central NM both days. Moisture intrusions from the east will introduce storm chances for eastern areas early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 98 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 50 94 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 93 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 57 93 55 91 / 0 5 5 0 El Morro........................ 57 88 56 87 / 0 5 10 0 Grants.......................... 59 93 55 92 / 0 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 60 87 56 87 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 66 90 62 89 / 5 10 10 10 Datil........................... 62 86 58 87 / 0 20 30 5 Reserve......................... 51 91 49 93 / 20 20 5 0 Glenwood........................ 55 95 53 97 / 20 40 10 0 Chama........................... 49 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 65 89 62 86 / 0 10 5 30 Pecos........................... 59 91 54 89 / 0 10 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 87 54 86 / 0 0 5 20 Red River....................... 48 77 46 76 / 0 5 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 43 82 41 81 / 0 10 5 40 Taos............................ 55 90 54 88 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 56 84 51 84 / 0 20 5 50 Espanola........................ 63 97 61 94 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 61 91 59 89 / 0 10 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 94 57 92 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 99 68 97 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 98 66 97 / 0 0 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 101 63 100 / 0 0 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 100 65 98 / 0 0 10 0 Belen........................... 67 100 63 99 / 0 0 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 101 63 99 / 0 0 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 99 61 98 / 0 0 10 0 Corrales........................ 67 101 64 99 / 0 0 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 65 99 61 98 / 0 0 10 0 Placitas........................ 67 96 65 94 / 0 0 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 99 65 97 / 0 0 10 0 Socorro......................... 74 101 68 100 / 5 0 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 92 59 91 / 0 5 10 10 Tijeras......................... 64 93 60 92 / 0 5 10 10 Edgewood........................ 63 91 57 92 / 0 5 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 93 53 93 / 0 5 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 60 86 54 88 / 0 5 10 30 Mountainair..................... 63 92 57 92 / 0 10 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 63 91 57 90 / 0 20 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 63 93 / 0 20 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 62 87 56 85 / 0 30 20 60 Capulin......................... 53 75 50 82 / 5 0 0 50 Raton........................... 54 84 50 86 / 5 0 0 50 Springer........................ 56 84 52 87 / 5 0 5 50 Las Vegas....................... 59 85 54 85 / 0 5 5 40 Clayton......................... 61 78 56 85 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 60 78 54 84 / 0 0 5 30 Conchas......................... 63 85 60 92 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 85 60 89 / 0 0 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 65 83 61 91 / 0 0 10 10 Clovis.......................... 65 83 61 89 / 0 5 10 5 Portales........................ 66 89 62 91 / 0 5 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 68 88 62 92 / 0 5 10 5 Roswell......................... 74 97 66 96 / 0 0 10 10 Picacho......................... 69 92 60 91 / 0 10 10 30 Elk............................. 66 89 57 88 / 0 30 10 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106- 109-120-124-125.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM to noon MDT Thursday for NMZ235-236.