textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- There will be a risk of severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds along and east of the central mountain chain during the afternoon and evening both today and Thursday.

- Some storms over east-central and northeast areas will produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash flooding during the afternoon and evening both today and Thursday.

- Record and near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage again today, then remain quite active through Thursday evening as disturbances clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft. The center of the ~ 597 DAM high pressure system that has been setting daily maximum 500 mb height records over the state will drift southwestward over NM's southwest border with AZ today, then remain there Thursday and Friday. As a result Gulf moisture will continue to increase areawide today, then mainly over east central and southern areas on Thursday, and and also into Friday over southern areas where a southeasterly return flow of low level moisture will persist. The disturbances in northwest flow aloft will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain each afternoon and evening today and Thursday, with scattered to isolated activity farther west. Bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 20-35 KT along and east of the central mountain chain today, and around 20-30 KT on Thursday, along with surface-based CAPE as much as 2500 J/KG today, and as much as 2200 J/KG Thursday, should enable a few storms to turn severe both days. In addition, PWATs on the plains near and above 1.30" this afternoon, and near and above 1.10" Thursday afternoon, will enable some storms to produce locally heavy rainfall both today and Thursday. This could result in drainage problems, especially in Union County where some locations received over an inch of rainfall on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Unlike today and Thursday, models depict some drier air filtering over northern NM from the west and northwest with only weak disturbances clipping the northeast corner of the state. This will result in a downtick in storm coverage, but not as significant of a downtick as previously expected. With continued, moist, southeasterly inflow, the southern mountains will be the favored location for scattered to numerous showers and storms on Friday afternoon and evening, with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms drifting southeastward off the mountains farther north.

With the high pressure system overhead, high temperatures will continue to climb around 5 to 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon for the rest of the work week, except for readings a little closer to average on the eastern plains, and highs as much as 15 degrees above average over the southwest mountains. Daily record high temperatures will probably continue to be set over south-central, southwest, and western areas.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

This weekend the upper high will drift eastward, centering over the Mississippi River valley by Sunday, while an upper level trough persists on the west coast, drawing a more traditional plume of monsoon moisture north and northeastward over the forecast area. Storm coverage will increase over central and western areas Saturday, then spread to include eastern areas as well Sunday and Monday. As is typical during monsoon surges, the mountains and continental divide will be favored for the most storms each day. On Tuesday, storm coverage is forecast to decrease again as the upper high tries to recenter over the southern NM/Mexico border. This would not only cutoff the monsoon flow, but move some drier air over the state from the west.

With the increased monsoon moisture, the forecast area will take a break from near-record warmth for a while, but highs will still climb as much as 12 degrees above average over eastern areas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the late night hours on the far eastern plains, then diminish in the pre-dawn hours. There will be an increase in storm coverage areawide on Wednesday with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms west of the central mountain chain, and scattered to numerous coverage farther east. Storm motion will mostly be toward the east and southeast around 10-25 KT with the fastest speeds in the east. Some storms will turn severe along and east of the central mountain chain by producing large hail and damaging winds. High res models depict storms along and east of the central mountain chain forming clusters and lines during the afternoon that track southeastward and linger until mid-evening on the plains south of I-40. In addition, record and near-record high temperatures will return to southern, central, and western areas on Wednesday, making density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Pockets of critically low minimum humidity will favor central and northwest areas again today, then northwest areas Thursday and Friday. Some locally strong gap winds will be possible below canyons opening into the central valley from the east again tonight and Thursday night. With increasing Gulf moisture over western areas, wetting footprints and the coverage of storms will grow today, so the main fire weather concern for the next week will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 64 96 64 / 10 20 5 5 Dulce........................... 92 50 92 48 / 20 20 20 5 Cuba............................ 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 10 20 Gallup.......................... 91 56 91 57 / 20 20 10 10 El Morro........................ 87 55 87 56 / 30 10 20 20 Grants.......................... 90 58 90 58 / 30 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 90 59 89 59 / 20 10 10 10 Magdalena....................... 89 63 88 63 / 30 30 30 40 Datil........................... 87 59 86 59 / 20 10 30 20 Reserve......................... 97 60 96 59 / 10 5 20 10 Glenwood........................ 103 66 102 65 / 10 0 10 20 Chama........................... 85 51 85 50 / 30 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 86 60 86 60 / 50 50 40 30 Pecos........................... 87 55 87 55 / 40 60 40 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 53 84 54 / 50 30 30 20 Red River....................... 74 45 75 45 / 60 40 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 80 38 80 36 / 70 50 50 20 Taos............................ 88 53 87 51 / 40 40 30 20 Mora............................ 82 51 83 51 / 60 60 60 30 Espanola........................ 93 60 93 59 / 40 50 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 88 59 87 60 / 30 60 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 58 90 58 / 30 50 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 65 96 67 / 20 40 10 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 65 96 66 / 20 30 10 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 65 98 65 / 20 30 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 66 96 67 / 20 30 10 20 Belen........................... 99 64 97 64 / 20 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 98 65 97 65 / 20 40 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 99 63 98 62 / 20 30 10 20 Corrales........................ 99 65 98 66 / 20 40 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 98 64 97 64 / 20 30 10 20 Placitas........................ 94 63 93 64 / 20 40 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 97 65 97 66 / 20 40 10 20 Socorro......................... 101 69 100 68 / 20 30 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 59 90 58 / 20 50 20 40 Tijeras......................... 91 60 91 61 / 20 40 20 30 Edgewood........................ 92 57 91 55 / 20 40 20 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 54 93 53 / 30 40 30 40 Clines Corners.................. 87 55 87 56 / 30 50 30 40 Mountainair..................... 92 57 91 57 / 20 20 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 91 58 90 57 / 20 20 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 95 65 93 64 / 20 10 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 87 58 85 57 / 30 20 40 40 Capulin......................... 81 53 82 55 / 60 60 30 40 Raton........................... 84 52 85 53 / 60 50 30 40 Springer........................ 86 53 87 53 / 50 50 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 84 54 84 54 / 50 50 40 50 Clayton......................... 86 61 86 61 / 30 40 10 20 Roy............................. 85 57 85 58 / 40 60 20 40 Conchas......................... 93 62 93 64 / 20 60 10 40 Santa Rosa...................... 91 61 90 61 / 30 60 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 93 63 93 63 / 20 50 10 20 Clovis.......................... 97 65 94 64 / 20 60 20 20 Portales........................ 97 65 95 64 / 20 60 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 97 64 95 64 / 20 50 10 30 Roswell......................... 100 69 98 69 / 10 20 5 30 Picacho......................... 95 62 93 62 / 20 30 20 40 Elk............................. 94 60 92 59 / 30 20 40 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.