textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Storms will increasingly favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain Friday through the weekend.

- Near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat- related illnesses across central and western NM today and across eastern NM for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Another round of afternoon convection is expected today, with storms initiating over higher terrain before spreading into adjacent valleys and lowlands. Model instability and shear looks generally unimpressive, which should limit the overall potential for severe weather. Although, any stronger storms may still produce locally strong and erratic outflow winds. Storm motions will be on the slow side, especially across western New Mexico, which will increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Moisture will also increase somewhat across the west (PWATs ~0.75-1.00 inches), with the greatest concern for heavy rainfall being across the southwest mountains and the burn scars near Ruidoso.

The center of the ridge will propagate eastward this weekend as a trough digs into the western CONUS. This will promote a more established monsoonal moisture plume across much of western New Mexico, with PWATs increasing to around or slightly above 1 inch. As a result, thunderstorm coverage should increase across western and central portions of the CWA. Slow-moving storms will once again support a risk for isolated flash flooding, especially where storms repeatedly track over the same areas. Outflow boundaries from western convection could push into the Rio Grande Valley during the late afternoon and evening potentially bringing gusty winds, blowing dust, and perhaps a few additional thunderstorms. Meanwhile increasing subsidence and downslope flow east of the mountains will support a warming trend, with portions of eastern New Mexico reaching the triple digits on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The ridge will settle over the Southern Plains Sunday and Monday, allowing for continued moisture transport into western New Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the western half of the state during the afternoon and evening hours, with PWATs remaining around or above 1 inch. While locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main hazards, faster storm motions toward the northeast at 10-20 mph should help limit the duration of rainfall over any one location. However, repeated rounds over the same area could still produce flash flooding. Outflows from western convection may once again propagate into the Rio Grande Valley late in the day, bringing periods of strong wind and an opportunity for isolated storms. Through Monday, the persistent ridging and lack of rainfall will keep eastern New Mexico hot, with an increasing number of locations potentially reaching the triple digits.

Beyond Monday, model guidance disagrees as to where the ridge will set up. With the extended forecast reliant on the NBM solution, which is leaning heavily similar to that of the ECMWF, the consensus is that the ridge will be elongated and mainly focused over the Southeastern CONUS. That being said, we are expecting more of a transition to a less active monsoon pattern by Tuesday. However, any lingering moisture should be sufficient enough to promote isolated to scattered high-terrain convection each afternoon through the end of the period, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflows still possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Showers and storms will redevelop once again this afternoon, favoring the high terrain of western, central, and northern New Mexico. Storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds, as well as brief heavy rainfall. Movement will be slow and erratic across western zones, but should generally move toward the south elsewhere. Confidence is generally low that any TAF site will be impacted by storms, but KGUP has the greatest chance of any. Brief MVFR VSBYs may occur in the heaviest storms. Precipitation activity should diminish by 04-06Z Saturday with conditions remaining calm through the remainder of the overnight and early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Critical fire weather is not anticipated through the next week. Although, fire starts will remain possible with frequent lightning and locally gusty outflow winds from thunderstorm activity through Monday. Speaking of thunderstorms, increasing monsoonal moisture and convection will be focused across the western half of New Mexico through early next week, with storms spreading into the Rio Grande Valley during the late afternoon evening. Eastern New Mexico will remain considerably warmer and drier, with temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal. With humidity being low and thunderstorm coverage being limited, the combination of heat and dry fuels will continue to support a slightly elevated fire potential out east. The monsoonal moisture surge will degrade by Tuesday, decreasing the overall precipitation coverage through the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 93 62 86 / 10 30 50 50 Dulce........................... 55 88 54 84 / 5 20 50 40 Cuba............................ 59 89 58 85 / 5 20 50 40 Gallup.......................... 59 89 58 81 / 30 30 50 60 El Morro........................ 55 84 54 79 / 10 40 50 60 Grants.......................... 56 87 53 81 / 10 50 50 60 Quemado......................... 58 84 57 80 / 20 50 40 60 Magdalena....................... 63 86 61 84 / 10 30 40 50 Datil........................... 57 83 56 81 / 10 40 40 50 Reserve......................... 56 90 56 88 / 20 30 30 60 Glenwood........................ 60 97 60 94 / 20 20 30 30 Chama........................... 54 81 53 78 / 5 20 40 40 Los Alamos...................... 63 83 61 79 / 5 20 30 40 Pecos........................... 57 90 57 89 / 5 0 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 84 56 83 / 10 10 20 20 Red River....................... 49 75 49 73 / 10 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 45 78 / 10 10 10 20 Taos............................ 53 87 56 84 / 10 10 20 20 Mora............................ 54 85 54 83 / 10 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 64 93 63 90 / 5 20 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 89 60 84 / 5 0 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 91 60 86 / 5 0 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 93 65 88 / 5 0 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 94 67 89 / 5 5 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 96 65 90 / 5 5 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 96 66 91 / 5 5 30 10 Belen........................... 65 97 64 95 / 5 10 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 68 95 66 92 / 5 5 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 64 96 62 93 / 5 5 30 10 Corrales........................ 68 96 65 92 / 5 5 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 63 96 62 94 / 5 10 30 20 Placitas........................ 67 92 64 88 / 0 0 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 69 94 67 92 / 5 5 30 10 Socorro......................... 68 97 65 94 / 5 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 62 87 / 5 0 20 5 Tijeras......................... 64 90 63 88 / 5 0 20 5 Edgewood........................ 61 89 60 88 / 0 0 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 91 55 90 / 5 0 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 59 88 59 85 / 10 0 10 5 Mountainair..................... 61 90 59 89 / 10 0 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 60 89 59 89 / 10 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 93 65 93 / 10 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 87 58 87 / 10 30 10 10 Capulin......................... 58 88 57 86 / 10 10 10 10 Raton........................... 56 93 57 91 / 10 10 10 10 Springer........................ 55 93 57 93 / 10 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 56 86 / 10 0 10 5 Clayton......................... 65 97 65 97 / 5 0 10 0 Roy............................. 62 93 60 92 / 10 0 10 0 Conchas......................... 68 100 67 100 / 10 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 66 96 / 20 0 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 71 103 72 101 / 10 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 66 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 101 70 102 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 95 64 96 / 5 20 0 0 Elk............................. 60 89 61 91 / 5 20 5 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.