textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is forecast late tonight into Thursday morning.

- A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area Thursday, creating strong north winds across eastern NM on Thursday and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday evening.

- The first freeze of the season is forecast Thursday night for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners.

UPDATE

Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Quick update to drop today's high temps a little bit more from KCAO to KTCC. Updates already out.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The upper low now just north of the Four Corners will continue to influence NM weather over the next 36 hours. This upper low will continue to shift northeastward over CO through early Thursday. A dry slot has rounded the high and punched through NM from SW to NE as evident on satellite imagery. Thus, storms will continue to decrease in coverage through the afternoon, however, a few storms will persist across north central NM just ahead of the upper low, while others may form near the OK or TX border and quickly shift northeastward into TX. Rainfall amounts will continue to be light. Otherwise, breezy to locally windy conditions will persist through early evening as a Pacific cold front moves from west to east across the area. Southwest winds will gradually become more westerly across central and western NM and gusts between 25 and 40 mph will be common. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front over NE NM this morning will continue to loiter over the area today, keeping temperatures up to 20 degrees colder than yesterday around KCAO. Speaking of temps, high temperatures across western NM will be 10 to 15 degrees colder than yesterday as well.

Surface winds will become more northwesterly this evening and overnight across central and western NM, and a few breezes will persist, especially around KCQC. However, winds are expected to drop off overnight across the upper Rio Grande Valley. Strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop below freezing for the first time in this area, including around Taos. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for this zone.

As the aforementioned upper low shifts into the northern Great Plains, the backdoor cold front loitering around NE NM will be reinforced with a stronger front. This reinforcement will enter NE NM Thursday morning before quickly sliding southward across the plains. With H7 winds increasing to between 45 and 50kt during the aftn, confidence is high that strong winds will be noted behind the front across NE NM. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from noon to midnight for wind gusts between 50 and 55 mph. This Wind Advisory may be expanded southward for strong winds Thursday evening and into the overnight hours, especially around Curry and Roosevelt counties, but cannot rule out much of eastern NM.

Of greater confidence continues to be strong winds below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley and upper Tularosa Valley as the front pushes through the Central Mountain Chain Thursday night. Wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph remain likely with the peak winds generally between 9pm and midnight. MET and MAV wind guidance have been trending downward for winds at KABQ, which may result in the High Wind Watch becoming a Wind Advisory for the metro with gusts of 50-55 mph, but confidence is higher that it will become a High Wind Warning farther south with gusts of 58-65 mph. Will let the night crew take another look before deciding how to upgrade the watch. Regardless of the eventual product, it continues to look very windy.

The front will also usher in much cooler temperatures. The first freeze of the season is expected from areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners Thursday night. Western Union County will likely also see freezing temperatures. Santa Fe will be close as well, but should stay just above freezing.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Friday's high temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees below normal areawide following the backdoor front. Winds will slowly decrease during the morning hours, though breezy conditions will persist through the rest of the day.

A widespread freeze is expected Friday night under excellent radiational cooling conditions. For those areas that will freeze tonight and/or Thursday night, a hard freeze is likely Friday night. Though the ABQ Sunport will likely stay above freezing, areas around KAEG and Belen may see sub-freezing temperatures. KROW, KTCC, Socorro and KFMN will be close to freezing, but could stay just above.

While the upper low mentioned above shifted toward the northern Great Plains, a baggy trough that was left behind closed into a low and retrograded to the west of northern Baja California. Over the weekend and into Monday, this feature will weaken and gradually shift northeastward. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop across western NM each day but coverage will be spotty at best. Temperatures will gradually rise back toward normal by Monday.

All eyes will then be on the next upper low that dives southward along the west coast Tuesday. Depending on it's position, moisture may increase with enhanced southerly flow, or if the low is too far west, weak ridging may dominate NM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs have been noted across far eastern NM along the OK and TX borders today and this will persist through the day, especially across northeast NM behind a weak backdoor cold front. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across far eastern NM through the evening before shifting northeastward into TX, similarly to what has occurred through the morning hours. A few other showers and thunderstorms will persist across north central NM as well ahead of the upper level low. Southwesterly winds will continue to increase this afternoon across central and western areas, becoming more westerly toward evening. Gusts between 25 and 35kt will be common. Winds will become more northwesterly tonight, but will decrease in speed. The backdoor cold front across NE NM will be reinforced Thursday. Winds will strengthen and it will quickly slide southward across the plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Main fire weather concerns are strong winds through early Friday followed by poor ventilation over the weekend into early next week. Breezy to windy southwest to west winds will persist through the rest of the afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and weaken this evening and overnight. On Thursday, a strong backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains before pushing westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Thursday evening. Northerly wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected across eastern NM, while easterly gusts between 50 and 65 mph are expected below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will slowly decrease through Friday morning, but will remain breezy through Friday aftn. Temperatures will be below normal areawide on Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western NM this weekend into Monday, otherwise temperatures will gradually climb back to normal through the period. Considerable uncertainty exists Tuesday and beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 36 62 36 64 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 61 27 64 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 33 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 53 28 57 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 62 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 29 58 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 48 22 50 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 54 17 52 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 30 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 69 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 69 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 70 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 71 42 66 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 66 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 60 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 36 63 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 64 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 69 41 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 63 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 53 28 51 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 57 31 54 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 61 30 58 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 59 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 59 34 54 / 40 0 0 0 Roy............................. 40 61 34 56 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 46 70 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 68 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 71 41 60 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 69 38 58 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 70 39 59 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 71 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 76 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 72 40 57 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 44 70 38 54 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for NMZ227-228-230-231.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NMZ222-223-228>230.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219-220-224-225.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ216.