textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Quiet weather persists through Thursday, with near to above average temperatures, increasing clouds, and light winds.

- A strong winter storm will impact much of central and northern New Mexico Friday through Sunday morning with snow, wintry mix, frigid temperatures, blowing snow, and treacherous travel conditions. Widespread minor impacts are expected with increasing chances for moderate to major impacts along and east of the central mountain chain.

- An extended period of bitterly cold temperatures in eastern New Mexico Thursday night through Monday morning will increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

A dry cold front is currently pushing southward down the eastern plains, currently located between Clayton and Tucumcari. This will create some briefly strong crosswinds along I-40 near the TX border, but winds will be short-lived as the sfc high scoots southward into the eastern plains this morning. Quiet weather prevails around the area Wednesday with above average temps everywhere except the eastern plains where temps drop a few degrees in the wake of the cold front. Dry northwest flow persists through Thursday as high clouds continue to stream in from the west throughout the day. Temperatures will trend up a few degrees in most areas despite the increasing clouds thanks to some weak warm air advection.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 157 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

A potent cold front will slide into eastern NM Thursday night as subtropical moisture begins streaming in from the southwest out ahead of a longwave trough axis. The collision of these airmasses over central and eastern NM will quickly expand the coverage of precipitation throughout the day Friday, with temperatures likely dropping through the day as cold air advection takes over. Easterly upslope flow in the wake of the cold front combined with isentropic lift provide excellent conditions for the seeder-feeder effect to produce widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation along and east of the central mountain chain, resulting in rapidly deteriorating travel conditions, including along I-40. A brief period of freezing rain and sleet in southeastern NM remains on the table, but recent modeled thermal profiles suggest the warm nose will not be strong enough for an extended period of freezing rain before the transition over to all snow.

Snow levels remain a big area of uncertainty Friday night into Saturday because there will be a tight temperature gradient from the Rio Grande Valley to the Central Highlands. All snow is likely above 7,500 feet, but the spread in snow levels (25th to 75th percentiles) remains 2-4kft, so snow levels could be as low as the floor of the Rio Grande Valley or as high as 7,500 feet during this time. This large spread is due to the uncertainty with regard to the western expansion of the cold front. Pattern recognition suggests the sfc Low in Arizona is in a good spot to push this front further west than most models suggest, resulting in a expansion of colder temperatures and lowering the snow levels. At the same time, this would also create strong gap winds in Albuquerque and this drying wind will limit precipitation for portions of the Albuquerque metro, which is reflected in the current forecast QPF and snow amounts.

By Saturday, the trough axis will move across the region from west to east, with a quick, but impactful, burst of snow with its passage. Another player in all of this is a secondary shortwave trough that will likely move through the vicinity of the Four Corners Saturday into Saturday night. This will drop temperatures more and could bring another quick burst of snow to western and central areas as it swings across the state from northwest to southeast, drying the area as it does so. Models have trended deeper with this secondary trough axis, which will strengthen the cold air advection as it pushes through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winter Storm Watches were issued with this forecast package for the area where we have the highest confidence for impacts from snow. An expansion is likely in future forecast updates as details get clearer.

The other aspect of this winter storm will be the dangerously cold temperatures. Forecast temperatures continue to trend lower as models get into better agreement with regard to the strength of the modified Arctic front. Forecast high temps have plummeted on Friday, with highs likely (40-90% chance) remaining below freezing across almost all of eastern NM. Furthermore, the probability of sub-zero temperatures Sunday morning is 20-60% across much of eastern NM. Given the combination of snow and bitterly cold temperatures, it is a good idea to have a plan in place now in case you lose power during this storm. Portions of eastern NM could remain below freezing for 48+ hours, with temps not rising above freezing until Monday afternoon. Tranquil weather returns early next week as temperatures moderate and snow begins to melt.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR prevails with light prevailing winds most areas. The exception will be brief breezy northerly to northeasterly winds associated with a weak frontal boundary advancing southward through eastern NM tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Dry conditions with near to above average temps and light winds prevail through Thursday. Poor ventilation will continue to be the story the next couple of days, with pockets of fair ventilation in the northeast today, then in east-central areas Thursday. A strong winter storm will impact the area Friday through early Sunday, bringing much colder temperatures and widespread wetting precipitation to most of the region, with the most significant snow accumulations expected along and just east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will gradually moderate early next week as dry conditions return and snow begins to melt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 46 23 47 29 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 49 16 50 22 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 48 24 50 26 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 53 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 56 22 57 23 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 58 27 55 28 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 54 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 54 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 62 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 64 29 64 31 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 44 17 45 21 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 46 28 48 29 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 48 26 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 38 22 40 23 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 44 13 46 13 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 47 15 50 19 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 53 27 55 19 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 52 20 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 28 49 29 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 24 50 26 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 33 53 34 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 27 56 29 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 53 22 56 26 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 53 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 53 23 56 26 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 54 28 55 30 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 53 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 49 32 52 31 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 52 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 57 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 29 49 28 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 49 29 49 29 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 51 25 52 24 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 18 54 19 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 47 24 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 27 53 25 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 53 27 54 26 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 56 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 54 33 54 32 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 46 22 50 11 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 49 19 53 14 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 53 19 55 16 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 51 24 57 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 25 48 14 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 46 24 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 54 26 57 20 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 53 30 59 21 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 54 27 59 19 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 51 27 61 23 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 53 27 62 24 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 51 24 62 22 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 54 24 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 31 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 57 29 65 29 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for NMZ210>212-214-218-221>224-226-229-232>240.