textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on Thursday across northeast NM.

- Hotter temperatures through the weekend will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure aloft has started building more over northwestern NM with overall higher PWATs of 0.8 to 1.0 inch in this region. Some spokes of relatively drier air have rotated into the southeastern half of the state, lowering theta-E values and convective potential there. This will keep the northwestern half of NM favored for storms through the evening with very slow clockwise steering flow around the upper high. The slow storm motions will allow for heavy downpours, but northwestern areas will have a lot of dry sub-cloud air to contend with (surface dewpoints in the 30's and low 40's) and overcome, so virga and dry storms with gusty and erratic winds will be of concern there. Storms will slowly propagate into valleys and lowlands through the evening via outflows and mesoscale cold pools, but again overall storm motion will be sluggish, often at 5 mph or less.

By Wednesday, the upper high will elongate westward from western NM into the Pacific. This will allow drier air to start wrapping into northwestern NM while a southwest-to-northeast oriented corridor re- establishes itself over the state. Consequently, storms will reduce over northwestern areas Wednesday while expanding more eastward off of the Sangre de Cristos during the afternoon and early evening with remaining southwestern and central zones replaying similar to today. Temperatures will gain a degree or two in many zones, posing minor to locally moderate heat impacts with lots of 90's being observed.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Into Thursday the high will remain elongated on a west-east axis, centering just offshore of southern CA. This will actually introduce a modest speed max aloft (50-60 kt at 300 mb) that will nose its way toward the Four Corners. This will introduce enough momentum aloft over northwestern NM, enough to mix down some drier air and breezy west winds (gusts to 25 mph). This drier air will shut down storms in northwestern NM Thursday afternoon, but remaining areas should still observe isolated to scattered storms.

The upper high builds its centroid back over NM on Friday with more dry air pivoting into the state from the northwest. This will further eat away at our storm coverage on Friday with the southwestern, south central and northeastern high country still left supporting scattered afternoon cells. The aforementioned speed max aloft will be weakening as it traverses CO into KS on Friday, so surface breezes are not projected to be quite as high as on Thursday.

This jet on Friday looks to usher a shortwave trough into the southern plains, that could send convection into northeastern NM Friday night while setting the stage for more storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristos on Saturday, as moisture and upslope flow could increase there. High pressure would start to build north of NM into Saturday, and more-so into Sunday and Monday. This will allow a seepage of subtropical moisture into the southern half of NM early next week. The shortwave in northeastern NM on Friday could add some enhancement to storm development as it pushes southwestward through the weekend, but there is fairly low confidence on the trajectory of this feature so far out. For now, the POPs favor northeastern zones Saturday, shifting toward southern high terrain areas Sunday and Monday while warm to hot (near to slightly above normal) temperatures prevail.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will generally favor the northwestern half of New Mexico today through the evening. Brief heavy downpours, small hail, gusty downburst winds, and lightning will be common aviation hazards under and near any thunderstorms. Storms in northwestern New Mexico and the Four Corners region will not produce as much rainfall at the surface due to evaporation (virga), and this will lead to more gusty downburst winds with this activity. Storms will mostly die off before midnight, but a few lingering light showers could survive into the early morning hours. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will also prevail today, suggesting poor aircraft performance for many.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Storms will favor the northwestern half of NM through the evening, but overall wetting footprints will be quite small and isolated. In the northwestern parts of NM, drier low layer air will keep storms from being as efficient at producing rainfall as they otherwise would, so virga, gusty and erratic winds, and dry lightning will continue to pose a threat there through the evening.

Drier air will spill farther into northwestern NM on Wednesday, and even more each day through the end of the week, leading to fewer storms there. Meanwhile, slow-moving thunderstorms will continue to develop over remaining high terrain areas before slowly propagating into adjacent valleys and lowlands during the evenings.

One day of modest concern is Thursday when stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface, especially in northwestern zones where gusts of 25 will be common with a few gusts even reaching close to 30 mph. Humidity will have lowered considerably by this time (below 10% in the afternoon). Westerly breezes will redevelop over these areas again on Friday, but speeds will come down 5-10 mph.

The focus for storms will shift along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday, before slowly pivoting toward the southern half of the state through early next week. Opportunities for soaking rainfall will still be rather isolated and sparse, so relief to our dry fuels and high ERC's will be slow to come.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 64 98 63 98 / 10 5 10 0 Dulce........................... 51 93 51 93 / 20 20 10 5 Cuba............................ 57 92 58 92 / 30 20 20 5 Gallup.......................... 57 93 58 94 / 20 30 20 5 El Morro........................ 57 86 57 89 / 20 50 20 10 Grants.......................... 56 91 57 93 / 20 50 20 20 Quemado......................... 59 89 59 90 / 30 50 40 10 Magdalena....................... 64 89 64 91 / 10 40 20 40 Datil........................... 58 86 59 88 / 20 60 30 20 Reserve......................... 54 92 55 95 / 20 60 40 40 Glenwood........................ 58 96 59 99 / 30 50 20 40 Chama........................... 49 84 49 85 / 30 40 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 62 87 63 89 / 50 40 30 30 Pecos........................... 56 89 56 92 / 40 40 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 85 54 86 / 40 30 20 20 Red River....................... 45 78 45 79 / 40 40 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 41 81 41 82 / 40 50 30 20 Taos............................ 53 88 53 90 / 40 30 20 20 Mora............................ 53 84 54 87 / 40 50 30 40 Espanola........................ 58 96 60 96 / 30 30 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 90 61 91 / 40 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 93 59 95 / 30 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 97 68 99 / 30 20 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 96 70 98 / 20 20 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 98 62 100 / 20 20 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 97 67 99 / 20 20 30 10 Belen........................... 65 98 66 100 / 10 20 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 64 98 65 99 / 30 20 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 61 97 62 99 / 10 20 20 10 Corrales........................ 64 98 65 100 / 30 20 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 62 97 63 99 / 10 20 20 10 Placitas........................ 67 94 68 96 / 30 20 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 97 67 98 / 30 20 30 10 Socorro......................... 70 99 71 102 / 5 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 90 61 92 / 30 20 30 10 Tijeras......................... 61 91 61 93 / 30 20 30 10 Edgewood........................ 59 91 59 93 / 30 20 30 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 93 54 95 / 30 20 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 57 88 57 90 / 20 30 40 20 Mountainair..................... 60 91 60 93 / 20 20 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 61 89 61 92 / 10 20 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 65 92 67 95 / 10 20 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 56 85 58 87 / 5 30 30 50 Capulin......................... 54 87 53 86 / 30 40 30 70 Raton........................... 53 93 53 91 / 30 50 30 40 Springer........................ 55 93 55 92 / 30 40 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 88 56 90 / 30 40 30 40 Clayton......................... 64 96 64 94 / 10 30 30 40 Roy............................. 61 92 60 91 / 20 40 30 30 Conchas......................... 66 100 66 99 / 10 30 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 96 64 96 / 5 30 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 69 99 69 100 / 5 10 20 10 Clovis.......................... 66 96 67 97 / 0 0 5 10 Portales........................ 67 98 68 99 / 0 0 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 68 98 68 99 / 5 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 69 99 71 101 / 0 0 5 10 Picacho......................... 64 94 65 95 / 0 20 10 30 Elk............................. 59 89 63 91 / 0 20 10 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.