textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread east of the central mountain chain today then again Thursday through Sunday.

- A warm storm system will spread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow mainly along and south of I-40 tonight through Tuesday evening resulting in little rainfall with a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

- Breezy to locally windy conditions with well above average temperatures will return Thursday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A very dry airmass in place today will give way to higher humidity, thicker cloud cover, and increasing chances for showers and storms late tonight and Tuesday as a moist storm system near the Baja lifts northeast across southern NM. The H5 low will be filling so the main drivers for lift will be meager diffluence aloft, orographics, and steepening lapse rates. Overall precip coverage is still limited to high terrain areas mainly south of I-40 where the highest chance for wetting rainfall (>0.10") remains above 80%. The Gila region and south-central mts have the best chances for beneficial rainfall of >0.25" (30-50% chance). Southwest winds will be gusty again over eastern NM Tuesday with widespread gusts in the 25 to 35KT range, especially across the southeast plains. A Pacific cold front in the wake of the upper wave will bring a sharp northwest wind shift across northern and western NM thru sunset. The focus then shifts to a strong backdoor cold front entering far eastern NM Tuesday night. The latest RRFS and HREF prob wind gusts >50 mph average 20-40% along the TX/NM with good agreement from MOS guidance.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Wednesday will be cooler across eastern NM in the wake of the cold front but still just near normal. Central and western NM will remain above normal with abundant sunshine and light winds. Min temps on Wednesday night will be much cooler with another round of freezing temps for many areas.

Thursday thru Sunday will feature swift northwest flow aloft with abundant sunshine, warming temps, very low humidity, and breezy to locally windy northwest winds. Record highs will be challenged by late week in many areas with widespread 70s and 80s. A backdoor cold front is poised to enter eastern NM Sunday with briefly cooler temps for at least northeast NM.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions are currently in place across northern and central New Mexico early this evening. However, a low pressure system will move over far southern New Mexico tonight into Tuesday, drawing up moisture for additional clouds, showers, and a even a few thunderstorms. Showers and storms will be primarily focused over the southwestern to south central parts of New Mexico where occasional MVFR conditions (ceilings less than 3,000 ft and/or visibility less than 5 miles) will develop. The coverage of showers and storms will be much less and spotty or isolated elsewhere, but a few brief strong wind gusts to 40 kt, small hail, and lightning strikes will accompany any storms. Prevailing winds will turn lighter after sunset this evening, but will turn breezy again by Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 kt being common.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Critical fire weather will continue today over eastern NM and a couple small fires have been detected. Moisture will increase tonight with greater coverage of showers and a few storms Tuesday. The chance for wetting rainfall will be highest around the higher terrain south of I-40, especially the Gila region and south-central mts. A Pacific cold front will enter western NM thru late Tuesday afternoon while a strong backdoor cold front enters eastern NM late Tuesday night. North wind gusts may exceed 50 mph along the TX/NM border with the front. Wednesday will be tranquil with cooler temps and lighter winds areawide. The next fire growing pattern will occur Thursday thru Saturday with breezy to locally windy northwest winds, well above normal temps, and widespread single digit humidity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 33 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 64 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 62 33 62 / 10 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 63 28 66 / 10 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 33 58 31 64 / 30 30 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 62 30 67 / 20 30 0 0 Quemado......................... 34 56 33 64 / 60 50 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 59 39 67 / 40 60 5 0 Datil........................... 35 54 36 63 / 50 70 5 0 Reserve......................... 33 57 30 68 / 90 80 10 0 Glenwood........................ 36 59 33 74 / 90 90 10 0 Chama........................... 27 58 25 59 / 0 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 39 62 38 64 / 10 30 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 62 36 64 / 20 40 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 61 31 60 / 0 30 0 0 Red River....................... 26 52 22 53 / 0 30 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 23 57 22 56 / 5 40 5 0 Taos............................ 28 64 26 64 / 0 20 5 0 Mora............................ 33 62 33 62 / 10 40 5 0 Espanola........................ 34 69 35 70 / 5 30 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 39 63 38 65 / 10 40 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 65 35 67 / 10 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 66 43 70 / 20 30 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 44 68 41 72 / 20 30 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 70 40 74 / 20 30 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 44 69 42 72 / 10 20 0 0 Belen........................... 40 68 38 74 / 30 40 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 69 41 72 / 20 30 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 70 37 74 / 20 30 5 0 Corrales........................ 43 70 42 73 / 10 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 41 69 38 74 / 30 30 5 0 Placitas........................ 43 65 41 68 / 20 30 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 43 69 41 71 / 10 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 44 68 45 75 / 40 50 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 40 61 39 64 / 30 30 5 0 Tijeras......................... 39 64 35 68 / 30 30 10 0 Edgewood........................ 36 65 36 68 / 30 30 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 65 36 68 / 30 30 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 62 35 62 / 30 30 10 0 Mountainair..................... 36 62 36 67 / 40 40 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 38 61 38 67 / 40 40 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 43 61 41 70 / 50 60 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 56 40 61 / 50 70 20 0 Capulin......................... 36 66 28 54 / 0 20 5 0 Raton........................... 31 68 30 60 / 0 30 5 0 Springer........................ 31 70 31 63 / 0 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 65 33 61 / 10 40 0 0 Clayton......................... 44 75 36 56 / 0 20 10 0 Roy............................. 38 69 36 59 / 10 20 5 0 Conchas......................... 40 77 41 66 / 20 30 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 71 42 65 / 30 30 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 78 39 65 / 10 20 5 0 Clovis.......................... 47 77 42 64 / 20 20 5 0 Portales........................ 45 77 42 66 / 20 20 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 40 75 43 67 / 30 40 10 0 Roswell......................... 46 74 46 73 / 30 40 10 0 Picacho......................... 43 68 46 68 / 30 50 10 0 Elk............................. 40 64 42 68 / 30 60 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126.