textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 550 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeast and east central areas today into tonight, but the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is subsiding.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northern New Mexico today.

- After dry weather mid week, showers, thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow are forecast during the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Patchy fog is forecast in spots from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward until mid morning. Locations with pooling water on the ground from recent heavy rainfall will be favored for the fog, which will likely be dense and make travel hazardous in spots.

As the second in a series of two, back-to-back, storm systems that brought unprecedented flooding to parts of the forecast area exits the region to the northeast, a weaker tertiary disturbance will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going over the south central mountains, southeast, and east central areas today into the late night hours tonight. PWATs will continue to trend downward, so the risk of locally heavy rainfall is low. NBM 90th Percentile QPF suggest a few parts of the southeast plains could accumulate another 0.75" of rain, which could result in nuisance flooding where the ground is saturated from the recent rounds of heavy rain over the past few days.

Otherwise, drier and warmer weather is forecast today through Wednesday night as an active storm track north of NM draws dry west and southwest flow over the forecast area. High temperatures will climb near 1991-2020 averages areawide starting Tuesday, then as much as 8 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

During the latter half of the week, models continue to depict an upper level low pressure system stalling over the Pacific NW coast. It will draw a rich return flow of Gulf moisture into the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage over southern areas Thursday afternoon, and areawide Thursday night through Friday night, as a couple of shortwave troughs cross NM in succession from the southwest. GEFS PWATs peak Friday and Friday night around 180-250 percent of normal, which is quite high. However, actual PWATs are only forecast to vary from 0.50-1.00" from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. The main wave of precip with the first shortwave trough will cross the southeast third of the forecast area Friday morning when the instability isn't very strong, so the risk of locally heavy rainfall will be minimal. Similarly, the main wave of precip with the second shortwave trough looks to cross Friday night and Saturday morning, limiting instability and the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures at 700 mb look to bottom out around +2 to +4 C Friday and Friday night, indicating the highest peaks over 10K feet will probably accumulate a few inches of snow.

There are significant differences in track, depth, and timing, but models generally depict a stronger and colder storm system tracking southeastward over the forecast area early next week with precip breaking out over western areas Saturday night, then becoming widespread across the forecast area on Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds will continue east of the central mountain chain until mid morning, except into the afternoon in some east central locations, and through the afternoon and overnight hours tonight southeast. Meanwhile, from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, patchy fog will impact many locations until mid morning Monday. Otherwise, showers and storms on the far eastern plains will gradually exit east of NM during the early morning, while a new round of showers and thunderstorms forms over the south central mountains and tracks northeastward over the southeast plains again. This afternoon and tonight scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the south central mountains, southeast plains, and east central plains. Cells will generally move toward the east northeast around 20 KT. A few of the stronger storms today will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The main fire weather concern today and tonight, then again during the latter half of the week and the weekend, will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow. Southwest winds will probably gust in the 25-35 mph range over northeast areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are forecast daily this week, becoming most widespread Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 57 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 36 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 31 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 62 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 63 33 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 65 35 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 62 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 61 36 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 68 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 53 28 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 39 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 34 62 36 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 26 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 55 19 55 23 / 0 0 5 0 Taos............................ 59 27 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 60 29 63 32 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 64 37 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 39 62 39 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 46 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 67 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 67 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 67 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 43 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 69 49 72 49 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 62 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 62 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 40 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 63 40 64 41 / 0 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 63 41 63 42 / 0 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 47 66 48 / 20 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 42 62 43 / 30 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 59 38 64 38 / 0 5 5 0 Raton........................... 63 34 68 33 / 0 5 5 0 Springer........................ 65 32 71 31 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 34 65 36 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 66 46 69 46 / 10 10 5 0 Roy............................. 62 40 68 38 / 0 10 5 0 Conchas......................... 69 48 74 47 / 10 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 47 72 47 / 5 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 49 74 50 / 30 20 5 0 Clovis.......................... 66 52 71 52 / 50 60 10 0 Portales........................ 67 52 72 50 / 40 60 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 51 71 49 / 40 40 10 0 Roswell......................... 65 52 70 48 / 30 40 10 0 Picacho......................... 65 46 71 46 / 40 20 10 0 Elk............................. 65 44 69 44 / 40 20 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.