textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 544 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread heavy rain Tuesday through Wednesday night with a very good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon surge should continue at a less intense pace Thursday and Friday, when locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat as precipitation amounts generally trend downward with each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 112 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Drier air overspread the forecast area from the west over the past 24 hours, so dry weather is forecast today and this evening. The ground is probably moist enough in the central valley from recent rainfall for some patchy fog and low clouds early this morning, mainly from Espanola to Socorro, including Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Otherwise, in the wake of the upper level trough that swept through the central Rockies on Saturday, high temperatures will cool a few degrees across much of the forecast area today, except for as much as 8 degrees behind an early morning backdoor cold front on the northeast and east central plains.

Late tonight and Monday, showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for northeast areas and the eastern plains with the arrival of a moist backdoor front. The front will begin producing precip from Raton to Clayton after midnight tonight, then the front will bank up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain by midday Monday enabling scattered to isolated storms to develop over eastern areas during the afternoon and evening. Precip coverage is forecast to increase along and east of the central mountain chain late Monday night into Tuesday morning as an upper level low pressure system crossing the central CA coast draws additional low-level moisture into NM from the east and southeast. East wind gusts from 20-35 mph are forecast below canyons opening into the central valleys from the east late Monday night mainly around Santa Fe, Albuquerque, and Carrizozo. The influx of low level moisture will probably also enable isolated showers to develop late Monday night along the east slopes of the western mountains, and across western parts of the Rio Grande Valley where moist easterly upslope flow will develop.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture is forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall over the forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday night with a very good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding. The aforementioned CA low pressure system and a mid- level high pressure system parked over eastern TX will draw very rich subtropical moisture mainly over southern, central, and especially eastern parts of the forecast area; even as the upper low opens into a trough while passing northeastward over the Great Basin, central Rockies, and northern Rockies. GEFS Ensemble PWATs spike 160-200% of normal by Tuesday through Wednesday night, with near record (if not record) PWATs likely. The most likely rain amount Tuesday through Wednesday night is currently forecast to be 3-4" from Ruidoso and Roswell northeastward to around Conchas Lake; around 2-3" elsewhere along and east of the central mountain chain and the lower Rio Grande Valley; around 0.5-1.5" across the remainder of the Rio Grande Valley and continental divide; and lighter amounts west of the continental divide. The NBM 90th Percentile (serves as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes) indicates a 10 percent chance that some parts of the eastern plains will accumulate around 6-8" of rain, with 4-6" as far west as the central mountain chain and lower Rio Grande Valley, and 2-3" elsewhere in the Rio Grande Valley and along the continental divide.

Thursday and Friday, the high is forecast to remain in place over eastern TX, while another upper level trough moves onshore over the Pacific northwest, drawing additional monsoon moisture and embedded disturbances northward over NM. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat Thursday and Friday, especially given the antecedent moisture by then, but rain amounts should trend downward with each day.

On Saturday, scattered storms are still forecast, but the risk of locally heavy rainfall looks to abate as drier air filters over the forecast area from the west in response to the Pacific northwest trough exiting east of the Canadian Rockies. Models vary on where tropical storms in the eastern Pacific will go during the latter half of next week, but they generally agree that remnant moisture will remain south of NM.

Temperature-wise, except for some above average readings over eastern areas today, highs across the forecast area this week will vary from a few to several degrees below 30-year averages with the coolest readings on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Early this morning, patches of fog and low clouds should produce MVFR and localized IFR conditions in the central valley from Espanola southward to Socorro, including the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas. The fog should burn off by mid morning. Dry weather is forecast areawide this afternoon and evening. Late tonight, a moist backdoor front is forecast to trigger isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from Raton to Clayton and as far south as northern Quay County. Low clouds behind the front will probably also produce areas of IFR conditions late tonight around Capulin, Des Moines, Clayton, Roy, and Logan.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

With drier air continuing to move over the fire weather forecast area today, minimum humidities will drop near 15 percent in spots from the northeast highlands to the east central plains. Humidities will begin to rebound Monday. Therefore, the main fire weather concerns will continue to be erratic thunderstorm outflow from the central mountain chain eastward Monday afternoon and evening, then areawide for the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 79 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 77 36 78 39 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 74 46 74 50 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 76 45 75 48 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 71 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 75 47 74 51 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 72 49 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 76 53 75 57 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 72 50 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 80 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 85 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 70 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 73 50 73 55 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 78 47 77 51 / 0 0 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 74 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 20 Red River....................... 64 38 65 40 / 0 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 71 41 70 39 / 0 0 0 20 Taos............................ 76 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 77 45 74 48 / 0 0 10 40 Espanola........................ 80 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 75 52 75 55 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 53 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 80 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 81 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 82 52 82 56 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 82 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 82 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 79 55 79 59 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 81 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 84 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 53 75 54 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 76 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 78 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 45 80 50 / 0 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 75 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 30 Mountainair..................... 76 50 77 54 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 76 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 82 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 78 54 77 54 / 0 0 5 20 Capulin......................... 77 50 70 50 / 0 30 30 30 Raton........................... 82 49 76 50 / 0 20 20 30 Springer........................ 84 50 77 51 / 0 10 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 77 49 74 51 / 0 0 5 50 Clayton......................... 82 56 72 55 / 5 30 40 40 Roy............................. 82 55 73 54 / 0 10 20 40 Conchas......................... 90 60 81 59 / 0 10 10 40 Santa Rosa...................... 86 57 79 59 / 0 0 5 40 Tucumcari....................... 86 60 79 58 / 0 10 30 50 Clovis.......................... 90 59 84 59 / 10 10 50 50 Portales........................ 90 60 85 60 / 10 10 40 50 Fort Sumner..................... 90 58 86 61 / 5 0 10 50 Roswell......................... 92 61 90 64 / 10 0 10 50 Picacho......................... 87 59 85 59 / 5 0 5 30 Elk............................. 86 56 84 57 / 10 0 5 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.