textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Tuesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty outflow winds.

- The greatest risk for flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Monday, then mainly along and west of the Continental Divide and over the south central mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. - There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The 18Z KABQ RAOB showed a PWAT of 1.10", the highest so far this monsoon season, along with 1200 J/kg of CAPE and light easterly steering flow around 5-15KT. The latest water vapor loop shows the H5 low is still spinning over the Permian Basin with drier air aloft draped over CO and northern NM where a 594dm H5 high center has taken shape. Showers and storms will continue developing over the high terrain then move southwest and west into nearby valleys and highlands thru late this afternoon. Ensemble CAMs show QPF footprints >1" with the stronger cells. The more robust storms will be capable of producing >2" in an hour based on abundant moist instability and slow steering flow. The flash flood threat will be highest along and west of the central mt chain. A second wave of showers and storms is shown by several CAMs this evening as outflow boundaries collide in central NM. This activity also appears heavy with rainfall amounts near 1" in the ABQ metro from REFS/HREF LPMM QPF.

Sunday looks similar to today but with steering flow more east to west for the vast majority of the region. Another Flood Watch is in effect for the Ruidoso area. HREF/REFS 24-hr LPMM QPF shows smaller footprints of heavy rainfall but >1" amounts are still expected anywhere along and west of the central mt chain. Moist instability is limited over northern NM as drier air aloft and rising pressure heights begin to influence that area. A notable downtick in storm coverage is expected across far northern and northeast NM.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

By Monday, the H5 low spinning over the Permian Basin will finally move westward and become focused closer to El Paso. The H5 high will be expanding and help to increase east-west steering flow over NM (10-20KT). PWATs will stay above normal with abundant instability still in place. Overall little change in the chances for heavy rainfall with NBM 90th percentile QPF >1" from the stronger storm clusters. WPC still shows a large 'Slight Risk' for excessive rainfall over southwest NM. Eastern NM will see more limited storm coverage as 500mb dewpoint depressions rise above 15F east of the central mt chain.

The upper level wave will continue tracking westward across El Paso into the bootheel of NM by Tuesday while the upper ridge strengthens and broadens southeastward toward OK and north TX. This will force steering flow more west to northwest over the region with abundant moisture and instability still in place over southern and western areas of NM. WPC has maintained a small 'Slight Risk' area for excessive rainfall over southwest NM but that may expand based on latest model trends. 500mb dewpoint depressions will rise to over 20F over northeast NM so a lot of subsidence and capping is shown with few storms expected.

Storm chances are likely to focus over far western NM Wednesday and Thursday as the H5 ridge begins building west into eastern NM. Any storms that form closer to the AZ/NM will still be capable of heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible. Whatever is left of the H5 low near the Bootheel will be tracking north across eastern AZ which will help to boost lift over far western NM. Storm chances farther east toward the central mt chain will depend on how far west the H5 ridge develops into NM. The GFS and ECMWF spread drier upper level air and more stable conditions across the eastern half of NM both days with hot temps for eastern NM. A return to low 100s is possible for parts of the area.

An uptick in storm coverage may return to northeast NM by Friday as a moist backdoor cold front attempts to surge into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

SHRA/TS will continue forming over the high terrain today before drifting southwest and west into nearby highlands and valleys thru this evening. Direct hits will produce brief IFR vsbys in heavy rainfall with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Showers will linger thru about midnight followed by partial clearing from east to west overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

There is no critical fire weather expected for the next two weeks. Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall are expected each day through early next week. The highest risk for flash flooding will be along and west of the central mt chain through Tuesday then over far western NM Wednesday and Thursday. Steering flow will become more east to west Sunday and Monday, then southeast to northwest Tuesday and south to north Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 92 64 95 / 20 10 20 5 Dulce........................... 48 90 50 92 / 20 20 10 10 Cuba............................ 55 84 57 86 / 40 30 10 30 Gallup.......................... 53 84 54 86 / 50 50 30 40 El Morro........................ 54 80 55 81 / 50 70 40 70 Grants.......................... 55 84 56 86 / 50 50 30 50 Quemado......................... 55 81 56 81 / 60 70 50 70 Magdalena....................... 61 83 62 84 / 40 40 30 40 Datil........................... 56 79 57 79 / 40 60 40 60 Reserve......................... 53 86 54 86 / 50 90 40 80 Glenwood........................ 55 89 56 89 / 50 70 40 80 Chama........................... 48 84 50 86 / 30 20 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 62 84 63 87 / 20 20 10 10 Pecos........................... 54 83 55 86 / 30 50 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 84 56 87 / 10 20 5 20 Red River....................... 43 79 44 81 / 10 20 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 41 79 43 82 / 10 20 5 10 Taos............................ 51 86 53 90 / 10 20 5 20 Mora............................ 52 81 53 85 / 30 30 10 10 Espanola........................ 60 91 62 94 / 20 20 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 60 84 62 87 / 30 40 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 87 59 90 / 30 30 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 90 67 92 / 50 50 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 91 64 93 / 50 40 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 92 64 95 / 50 40 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 91 67 94 / 40 30 20 20 Belen........................... 61 92 62 93 / 40 40 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 64 93 66 95 / 30 30 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 60 91 61 93 / 50 50 20 20 Corrales........................ 64 93 66 95 / 40 30 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 62 91 63 93 / 50 40 20 20 Placitas........................ 64 89 66 91 / 30 40 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 65 92 66 94 / 40 30 20 20 Socorro......................... 66 93 67 94 / 40 50 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 84 60 86 / 40 60 20 20 Tijeras......................... 57 87 58 89 / 40 60 20 30 Edgewood........................ 54 87 55 89 / 30 50 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 87 52 89 / 30 50 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 55 82 55 84 / 30 40 20 20 Mountainair..................... 55 85 56 87 / 50 50 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 56 83 57 84 / 50 50 20 50 Carrizozo....................... 62 84 62 85 / 60 70 30 60 Ruidoso......................... 56 77 57 78 / 50 80 30 70 Capulin......................... 53 83 54 88 / 20 10 5 5 Raton........................... 54 88 54 93 / 10 10 5 5 Springer........................ 55 88 56 93 / 10 10 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 83 55 87 / 20 30 10 5 Clayton......................... 62 90 63 95 / 10 10 10 0 Roy............................. 59 85 60 89 / 20 20 10 0 Conchas......................... 63 92 64 96 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 87 62 90 / 30 20 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 93 65 95 / 20 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 63 90 64 92 / 40 20 20 0 Portales........................ 63 90 64 92 / 40 20 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 63 90 64 92 / 30 30 20 0 Roswell......................... 66 91 67 93 / 50 20 30 5 Picacho......................... 61 86 61 87 / 30 40 20 30 Elk............................. 57 83 57 84 / 30 60 40 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch Sunday afternoon for NMZ226.