textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - There will be a moderate risk of heat induced illness at lower elevations of central and eastern NM again Thursday through Sunday, except for major heat risk across the southeast plains this weekend.

- Some storms will likely turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds during the afternoon and evening over northeast and east central New Mexico today and Thursday. - Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 127 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor northern, central, and eastern areas this evening, with spottier activity south central and southwest, as a disturbance passes eastward over the central Rockies. Shear and instability profiles look sufficient for some storms to turn severe across northeast and east central NM until around midnight or so, and across the northwest plateau as well. A few storms will probably linger after midnight on the eastern plains and near the Four Corners. The disturbance crossing CO this evening will draw richer subtropical northward over NM, underneath a weakening high pressure system centered just south of El Paso. Although there are a fair number of virga showers and dry storms along and west of the central mountain chain this afternoon, the increased moisture and cooler temperatures this evening should enable wetting footprints to grow after sunset. By Thursday, PWATs are forecast to vary around 0.80-1.25" over most of the forecast area resulting in wetting showers and storms. An exception will be some lower PWATs near the CO border, where a few drier variety cells may develop. The increased moisture on Thursday, and additional disturbances tracking eastward over the central and southern Rockies, will enable an uptick in storm coverage over central and western areas on Thursday afternoon and evening, where scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast. East of the central mountain chain scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday. Again, Thursday, some storms may turn severe over northeast and far east central NM.

With subtropical moisture in place on Friday, scattered showers and storms are forecast to return mainly to northern, central, and western parts of the forecast area. A deepening upper level trough on the west coast will begin to steer some drier air over the forecast area from the southwest, and some models depict PWATs decreasing enough for some gusty virga showers and dry storms to enter the mix over western areas. There will be significantly less wind shear over northern and central NM on Friday, which will decrease the severe threat. However, there will probably be enough speed shear for a few pulse severe storms to develop in the northern mountains and upper Rio Grande Valley.

Temperature-wise, highs look to fall a few to around 6 degrees over central and western areas on Thursday from today's readings, then hold steady on Friday. These values will vary from near 1991-2020 averages over northwest areas to as much as 8 degrees above the averages across the southeast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 127 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday and Sunday as southwest winds gust in the 35 to 50 mph range in response to an upper level low pressure system sweeping through the northwest US. High temperatures will continue to vary from near to around 9 degrees above average as humidities plummet below 15 percent almost areawide. Critical conditions may linger over northeast areas on Monday as stronger flow aloft persists there, as well as a surface trough in the lee of the CO Rockies. In addition, a building ridge of high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley may begin to steer better Gulf moisture over NM's southeast and east central plains starting Sunday enabling wetting showers and storms to develop there. The Mississippi River high is forecast to continue building Monday and Tuesday, while an upper level trough persists over the far western US, drawing subtropical moisture farther northward over NM with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and east of the central mountain chain each day. The increasing moisture will cause high temperatures to trend gradually cooler with highs dropping a few degrees below 30-year averages across most of the forecast area by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for short-lived MVFR conditions in/near showers and storms this evening and again Thursday afternoon. Some showers and storms across central and western NM may produce strong/erratic wind gusts that kick up patches of blowing dust and bring MVFR visibilities. Otherwise, gusty southwest or westerly winds across western NM will gradually subside this evening, then pick up again around mid day Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

After wetting showers and thunderstorms with plenty of gusty outflow on Thursday afternoon and evening, storm coverage will decrease some Friday as some drier storms return to the mix over western areas. After three days of lightning today through Friday, a fire growing pattern will develop this weekend, then probably continue into Monday northeast, as very dry and warm southwest flow strengthens over the fire weather forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 91 60 92 / 50 30 30 30 Dulce........................... 47 87 46 87 / 50 20 40 40 Cuba............................ 56 85 54 86 / 40 60 50 60 Gallup.......................... 52 86 51 88 / 40 60 50 20 El Morro........................ 53 84 53 85 / 30 60 60 20 Grants.......................... 53 88 52 90 / 50 60 60 30 Quemado......................... 56 85 54 87 / 10 60 30 30 Magdalena....................... 63 89 61 89 / 10 60 40 40 Datil........................... 58 85 56 86 / 10 60 30 20 Reserve......................... 52 93 52 93 / 20 40 20 0 Glenwood........................ 59 98 58 97 / 10 30 20 0 Chama........................... 47 80 45 80 / 50 30 30 50 Los Alamos...................... 61 84 60 84 / 30 60 30 60 Pecos........................... 56 87 55 87 / 40 30 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 82 54 82 / 50 30 40 50 Red River....................... 47 73 46 73 / 50 30 40 50 Angel Fire...................... 43 78 43 78 / 50 30 20 30 Taos............................ 53 85 51 85 / 40 30 20 40 Mora............................ 53 83 53 84 / 50 30 10 40 Espanola........................ 59 91 57 91 / 30 60 30 60 Santa Fe........................ 61 86 60 86 / 40 40 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 90 57 90 / 30 50 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 93 65 93 / 10 70 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 94 62 94 / 10 70 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 96 61 96 / 10 70 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 94 63 94 / 10 60 40 40 Belen........................... 63 97 59 96 / 10 70 40 40 Bernalillo...................... 65 95 63 95 / 20 60 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 61 95 58 95 / 10 70 30 40 Corrales........................ 65 95 63 95 / 20 60 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 63 96 59 95 / 10 70 30 40 Placitas........................ 65 91 64 91 / 20 60 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 65 94 62 94 / 20 60 40 50 Socorro......................... 69 100 66 100 / 10 40 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 88 59 88 / 20 60 30 40 Tijeras......................... 61 89 59 89 / 20 60 30 40 Edgewood........................ 57 91 56 91 / 20 50 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 93 53 92 / 20 50 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 56 88 56 88 / 20 30 20 10 Mountainair..................... 58 92 56 92 / 10 50 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 60 91 58 91 / 10 30 30 5 Carrizozo....................... 65 96 64 95 / 5 30 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 61 90 60 88 / 10 20 20 10 Capulin......................... 53 86 50 86 / 30 30 30 30 Raton........................... 53 90 52 89 / 30 20 20 30 Springer........................ 55 91 55 91 / 40 20 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 56 88 56 88 / 50 20 5 20 Clayton......................... 62 94 58 91 / 20 30 40 50 Roy............................. 57 91 57 90 / 40 20 5 20 Conchas......................... 62 100 63 99 / 50 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 61 96 62 95 / 30 30 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 65 101 65 99 / 50 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 66 100 66 100 / 50 20 20 5 Portales........................ 66 102 67 101 / 50 20 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 64 99 64 99 / 30 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 69 103 68 102 / 10 20 20 5 Picacho......................... 64 98 64 97 / 10 30 20 20 Elk............................. 62 97 62 95 / 5 20 10 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.