textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Dry lightning from virga, or evaporating rainfall, and dry thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico may cause new fire starts Sunday and Monday. Virga showers will create erratic downburst wind gusts.

- Increasing chances for beneficial light rain and high mountain snow Tuesday and Wedenesday.

- West winds trend stronger next week. There is a moderate (40-60%) chance of an increased threat of rapid fire spread in eastern New Mexico Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

High pressure aloft remains quite strong to our south today, and despite the front that moved in yesterday, temperatures will quickly rebound today, aided by veering surface winds. Most locations will continue to turn from the south southwest by the late afternoon as a lee-side surface trough easily takes shape east of the front range, and this downsloping wind component will offer compressional warming for much of the eastern plains today. Satellite imagery reveals increasing mid to high level coming our way from the southwest, and we will be monitoring for developing virga showers in west central to southwestern zones. These high-based buildups will only be capable of producing sprinkles/virga and gusty winds due to such a deep and dry boundary layer beneath the mid level moisture. Any of this weak shower activity should fall apart through the early evening, but lingering mid to high level clouds will trap in some warmth tonight into Sunday morning, so overnight lows will be considerably warmer than this morning.

High pressure aloft moves eastward on Sunday with above normal heights still overlaying NM. A subtle and weak upper level trough will also be found near the Baja peninsula on Sunday with a continued fetch of modest mid to high level moisture seeping into NM from the southwest. At the surface, the lee-side surface trough will recycle and redevelop with another round of breezy downsloping winds in most zones, even those farther removed from the surface feature. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be common in the afternoon. Temperatures will keep climbing, exceeding normal by 10 to 20 degrees in all zones Sunday afternoon. The other notable aspect of Sunday's weather will be the low, but present, potential for more virga showers and even dry thunderstorms, mainly in southwestern to west central zones. Lifted indices of 0 to -1 C will offer marginal instability, and a few CAMs (RRFS, FV3) are starting to latch on to very sparse/isolated cells. These will drift northeastward and fizzle into the early evening. Another mild night will then be in store for Sunday night into Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The weak and ill-defined Baja trough will slide east over the Mexican mainland on Monday with the flow aloft veering a bit more westerly and ushering in subtle mesoscale perturbations over NM. Mid to high level moisture over western NM will consequently spread a bit farther into central areas of the state where another round of high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop again Monday afternoon. Temperature lapse rates increase with LI's of -1 to -3 C over a more widespread basis with lowest values in far western zones. This will all set the stage for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, particularly over the western half of NM. However, very dry boundary layer conditions and high LCL's will lend to very low QPF and a tendency toward more virga and drier storms. NBM guidance suggests a healthy swath of scattered showers/storms, but this was reduced to account for less likelihood of actual measurable rainfall. Temperatures look to start cooling a few degrees in western zones Monday, as heights begin declining.

Zonal flow aloft prevails on Tuesday, with a couple of weak perturbations still propagating along or near the NM-CO border, but these are looking more subtle and faint compared to 24 hours ago. Continued mid to high level moisture will be feeding into NM, so additional weak showers and storms will redevelop, perhaps with a bit more substance and likelihood of producing measurable precip over the northern mountains. The other notable feature will be a surface cold front advancing into northeastern NM where temperature guidance is showing high variance due to discrepancies on the placement of the boundary (ECMWF and NAM much colder and invasive than the GFS and Canadian).

Whatever ground the front does make, it should retreat and wash out into Wednesday. Into Wednesday and Wednesday night, upstream interests will be concentrating on an incoming shortwave trough that will cross northern NM, bringing our best precip chances of the last few weeks. The QPF is still low with quite a bit of uncertainty on track/timing, but a few northern zones do appear to actually breach 0.1 to 0.25" of liquid equivalent (including a couple inches of snow above 9,000 kft. A dry slot would quickly work in behind the departing shortwave trough with breezy to windy, dry, and warmer conditions ensuing. This regime could persist into Friday, depending on the fate of the next trough/frontal passage. The ensemble means from the ENS and GEPS are a bit sharper and slower with the next trough compared to the GEFS. For now, a near to slightly above normal temperature regime with breezy to windy conditions appear to be the most likely outcome for Friday before cooler air arrives.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds have settled in most locations for now, but they will start to turn breezy to windy again through the late afternoon with stronger speeds focused in northeastern New Mexico where gusts will occasionally reach 35 to 45 kt. Outside of northeastern New Mexico, gusts will tend to be in the 20 to 25 kt range this afternoon. There is a very low (10-20%) chance for virga (evaporating rainfall) showers in western New Mexico through early evening, which may produce abrupt and erratic wind gusts over very localized areas. Winds settle this evening with breezy conditions redeveloping Sunday along with a few weak and anemic thunderstorms over western New Mexico in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Temperatures are trying to warm back up to normal, if not surpass this afternoon with south southwesterly winds assisting. Windy conditions in northeastern NM will threaten with a couple hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions as a lee-side surface trough develops through the early evening. In western NM, a few spotty and meager virga showers will potentially take shape through the early evening, offering a few brief and erratic wind gusts.

On Sunday, another lee-side surface trough redevelops with winds turning a bit more westerly and gusting to 25 to 30 mph over the central to northeast highlands of NM (Las Vegas to Clines Corners). This will represent the area most likely to observe a couple hours of marginal to critical conditions Sunday afternoon while temperatures soar 10 to 20 degrees above normal in all zones. We still anticipate a low (10 to 20%) threat for isolated dry thunderstorms in western (and particularly southwestern) zones as mid level moisture increases. The juxtaposition of lightning over parched fuels will be a concern with these dry storms Sunday, and likely into Monday and Tuesday too.

The modest, but sufficient, tap of mid level moisture persists over western NM Monday and spreads a bit farther east through Tuesday. With the lee-side surface trough deepening Monday, stronger winds will ensue over northeastern zones where a few hours of critical conditions are aligning. The windy conditions could expand over more of north central to northwestern NM on Tuesday with another round of marginal or critical conditions following. Have opted to issue a Watch for northeastern zones for Monday, and subsequent shifts will be watching Tuesday's potential with humidity being the current limiter.

Breezy to windy conditions will accompany a shortwave trough passage on Wednesday, but cooling temperatures and light showers will help mitigate the critical threat. The next window for critical conditions quickly returns though on Thursday across eastern NM due to the arrival of a dry slot aloft and warmer and windy conditions. These critical conditions will have the potential to linger into Friday before the next front arrives.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 41 78 46 79 / 5 0 5 20 Dulce........................... 31 74 35 73 / 5 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 36 74 41 73 / 10 0 5 20 Gallup.......................... 33 76 36 75 / 5 10 10 30 El Morro........................ 38 72 40 70 / 10 10 10 30 Grants.......................... 35 77 38 74 / 10 10 10 30 Quemado......................... 40 74 42 71 / 10 10 10 40 Magdalena....................... 45 77 48 74 / 5 10 10 40 Datil........................... 41 74 44 71 / 10 10 10 40 Reserve......................... 35 79 38 77 / 5 10 10 40 Glenwood........................ 38 84 42 81 / 0 10 10 40 Chama........................... 34 67 36 66 / 5 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 45 73 49 72 / 5 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 38 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 20 Red River....................... 34 64 38 62 / 0 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 26 67 32 66 / 0 0 0 20 Taos............................ 31 75 34 74 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 40 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 38 80 42 79 / 5 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 42 75 46 74 / 5 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 39 78 43 78 / 5 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 78 51 78 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 81 52 81 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 83 45 83 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 82 50 81 / 5 0 5 20 Belen........................... 39 84 45 83 / 5 5 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 44 82 48 81 / 5 0 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 38 82 43 82 / 5 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 44 82 48 82 / 5 0 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 39 82 44 82 / 5 0 10 20 Placitas........................ 46 78 51 77 / 5 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 46 81 51 80 / 5 0 5 20 Socorro......................... 46 84 51 82 / 5 5 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 74 49 74 / 5 0 5 20 Tijeras......................... 44 75 50 75 / 5 0 5 20 Edgewood........................ 40 75 47 75 / 5 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 78 37 78 / 5 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 40 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 20 Mountainair..................... 42 77 46 76 / 0 0 5 20 Gran Quivira.................... 39 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 44 80 50 80 / 0 0 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 38 75 44 75 / 0 10 5 20 Capulin......................... 40 77 41 76 / 0 5 0 20 Raton........................... 36 80 37 80 / 0 5 0 20 Springer........................ 36 82 38 82 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 41 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 49 85 52 87 / 0 5 0 10 Roy............................. 41 82 45 82 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 43 89 44 89 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 43 85 46 85 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 45 90 48 91 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 43 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 40 89 47 91 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 38 88 44 89 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 42 87 49 91 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 44 84 50 84 / 0 10 0 20 Elk............................. 41 80 47 81 / 0 10 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ104-123.