textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will focus over western and central New Mexico today and Tuesday. Brief gusty outflow winds and lightning are the main hazards.

- Flash flood risk increases thru northwestern NM Wednesday, spreading to the Rio Grande Valley late Thursday into Friday, focused on fast storms passing over the same areas repeatedly.

- Marginal risk for severe storms producing hail, lightning, and gusty winds increases Wednesday and Thursday thru western and central NM.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 127 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Scattered light showers reaching portions of eastern NM this hour will give way to stronger showers and storms favoring development over southeastern AZ and southwestern NM later this afternoon and evening. Ample surface moisture highlighted by Td's in the 40s/50s combined with enough remnant vertical shear associated with a weakening and departing shortwave trough are supplying a marginal risk for a few storms to become strong to severe in this area of southwestern into west-central NM. HiRes CAMs bring this activity northeastward into the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and the Sangre de Cristo's this evening. Brief periods of gusty winds, lightning, and moderate rainfall will accompany this scattered hit-and-miss activity.

After clearing conditions overnight into Tuesday morning, Tuesday day sees a fairly similar forecast regarding sensible weather conditions. High temperatures warm a few degrees more with another round of scattered afternoon showers with a few isolated thunderstorms. Less shear will yield lower storm strengths however.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 127 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The Wednesday through Friday timeframe continues to come into better focus regarding an approaching Pacific storm system and its increased risk of thunderstorms and flash flood potential. The upper level jet pattern over the region becomes sharply amplified Wednesday as a 557-559dm H5 closed low digs down the CA coastline with a ridge of high pressure holding its ground over the TX Big Bend area and northward over eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. The first plume of subtropical moisture being advected northward from the EPAC and Gulf of California helps yield the first round of robust showers and storms over northern AZ and into northwestern NM and the Four Corners and Navajo Nation area. While ample shear and moisture with modest instability of ~400-600 J/kg of SBCAPE will allow for a marginal risk of fast moving strong to severe storms over western NM, there is also a marginal to slight risk for storms passing over the same areas repeatedly producing locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding. Overall thunderstorm activity looks to shift steadily back westward into eastern AZ Wednesday night as SW-NE flow b/w the H5 low and H5 ridge becomes more meridional.

Thursday sees the peak potential for excessive rainfall threatening flash flooding over the western half to two-thirds of the state. A steady stream of subtropical moisture from a combination of a modest AR over the EPAC and a chunk of post-Trudy moisture gets pulled over AZ and western NM, spiking PWAT's to the 0.90" to 1.10" range. These would be daily record PWAT values for mid-to-late October. As the H5 low comes ashore thru the day Thursday, there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of a vortmax feature rounding its southern periphery and over the Desert Southwest. Some uncertainty also remains with how much cloud cover there may be, limiting daytime heating and instability thru the day Thursday. Much of the subtropical moisture associated from the aforementioned AR and remnants of Trudy will be in the mid-to-upper levels, potentially resulting in abundant cloud cover. Nevertheless, the synoptic setup with large scale ascent and divergent flow aloft will allow for a stream of fast moving thunderstorms to flow SW-NE over western NM Thursday afternoon, shifting into the Rio Grande Valley favoring Thursday evening and night, and along the central mountain chain and eastern plains by Friday morning. Depending on storm training and how instability and moisture levels play out, much of the northwestern half of NM will favor 0.50" to 1.00" for event total rainfall with higher amounts of 0.75" to 2.00" over the higher terrain of western and northern NM where orographics will enhance lift. Locally higher amounts of 2+" will favor those higher terrain areas of the Gila NF and Tusas Mts northward into the CO San Juans.

Friday favors storms shifting over the eastern plains of NM. Southeasterly flow in the boundary layer combined with a shearing wind profile and abundant moisture will allow for a threat of severe storms in this area thru the day Friday. Thereafter, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the track and evolution of the upper level troughing pattern. Whether it's an AI deterministic run, numerical model run, or an ensemble suite of guidance, solutions range from a progressive exit of the upper low out over the Great Plains to a segment lagging behind over NM/AZ spinning up further moisture that continues precipitation chances at least for central and eastern NM into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Scattered showers and storms will continue over portions of central and western areas until around 04Z, or so. There are PROB30s included at TAF sites in those zones to account for this activity. Storms are moving quite fast towards the northeast at 20 to 30 knots so any visibility reductions with heavier downpours will be brief. A few of these stronger storms will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 30-40 knots, with a low chance of some storms in far southwestern portions of the forecast area to produce severe hail. Conditions will likely begin to clear just past midnight into early Tuesday morning through some light showers may linger. Another round of scattered afternoon showers with a few isolated thunderstorms across similar areas is expected towards the end of the TAF cycle Tuesday afternoon and evening. Less shear will yield lower storm strengths compared to today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Prevailing light winds will increase only slightly Tuesday with warmer temperatures helping to temporarily improve ventilation. Scattered showers and storms this afternoon will favor southwestern and central NM late this afternoon and evening, with little chance Tuesday. S/SW winds and moisture increase further Wednesday in response to an approaching storm system from the Pacific. Storms will favor western NM first Wednesday afternoon and night, shifting over western and central NM late Thursday and Thursday night, and into the central and eastern NM Friday. There is an increased risk of flash flooding from fast moving storms brief periods of locally heavy rainfall passing over the same areas repeatedly Thursday thru Friday morning. Drier conditions push in west to east over the area Friday, with lingering shower and storm activity favoring central and eastern NM into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 70 50 68 / 20 10 5 80 Dulce........................... 40 66 38 68 / 40 30 5 80 Cuba............................ 43 66 46 69 / 30 20 10 50 Gallup.......................... 43 69 46 69 / 30 5 20 70 El Morro........................ 41 67 45 69 / 30 10 10 80 Grants.......................... 44 70 47 69 / 30 20 5 80 Quemado......................... 43 70 47 72 / 40 10 10 40 Magdalena....................... 47 68 51 70 / 40 40 10 20 Datil........................... 44 67 47 68 / 60 20 10 40 Reserve......................... 46 72 47 75 / 60 30 30 50 Glenwood........................ 49 77 52 80 / 80 30 40 70 Chama........................... 39 60 40 63 / 30 30 5 70 Los Alamos...................... 45 65 47 68 / 40 20 10 30 Pecos........................... 42 67 43 72 / 50 30 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 63 44 68 / 20 30 0 20 Red River....................... 36 55 37 60 / 20 30 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 31 60 31 66 / 20 20 5 10 Taos............................ 41 66 41 71 / 20 30 5 10 Mora............................ 40 66 41 70 / 30 10 0 20 Espanola........................ 45 72 45 76 / 30 20 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 46 66 48 71 / 40 30 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 68 46 73 / 40 20 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 73 56 78 / 50 30 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 73 52 77 / 40 20 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 75 49 79 / 40 20 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 73 53 77 / 40 20 10 10 Belen........................... 46 75 48 78 / 40 30 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 50 75 51 79 / 50 20 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 44 75 47 79 / 40 20 5 10 Corrales........................ 50 75 51 79 / 50 20 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 45 75 47 78 / 40 20 5 10 Placitas........................ 50 71 54 75 / 50 20 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 74 52 78 / 50 20 10 10 Socorro......................... 53 77 56 80 / 50 30 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 67 50 71 / 50 30 5 20 Tijeras......................... 47 68 51 73 / 50 30 5 10 Edgewood........................ 44 70 46 74 / 50 30 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 72 43 76 / 50 30 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 45 68 48 72 / 50 30 20 10 Mountainair..................... 45 69 47 74 / 50 30 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 46 69 48 74 / 60 20 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 51 73 55 77 / 50 20 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 46 69 48 73 / 50 30 0 20 Capulin......................... 44 67 44 71 / 10 20 0 0 Raton........................... 39 72 39 74 / 10 10 0 0 Springer........................ 39 74 39 76 / 20 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 67 42 72 / 30 10 0 20 Clayton......................... 50 74 51 77 / 5 10 0 0 Roy............................. 46 72 44 75 / 20 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 78 51 82 / 20 20 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 74 50 78 / 30 30 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 79 54 83 / 10 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 77 54 82 / 5 5 0 0 Portales........................ 49 77 54 82 / 5 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 49 76 53 81 / 10 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 49 79 54 82 / 5 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 5 0 Elk............................. 48 76 50 79 / 20 30 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.