textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026 - Isolated showers and virga will be capable of gusty outflow winds favored across northern New Mexico this afternoon. Expect a 20% to 50% chance of thunderstorms along the eastern slopes of the central mountains as well as the adjacent Highlands for Sunday afternoon and early evening. - A warming trend is forecast going into the middle of next week, except for brief cooling across eastern New Mexico on Sunday behind a cold front. Well above normal high temperatures return next week with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations especially on Tuesday.

- A gusty east canyon wind will develop late Sunday into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys, with only low chances (20-30%) of speeds reaching higher than 35 mph.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Day 1 Saturday: It is May so that means virga "bomb" season in New Mexico. Virga being rain that evaporates from a thunderstorm before reaching the ground. The rain cooled air still does reach the ground causing a dry microburst hence the "bomb" term. Today looks to be a decent set up for that to occur over the northern mountains into the northeast Highlands. Isolated activity should develop over the central RGV and then back over the Gila Forest as well. Instability (CAPE) looks rather limited with weak "moisture" over the state within increasing NW flow aloft. Storms will be moving pretty quickly as well so any convection could produce a quick microburst with winds most likely not reaching severe levels due to lack of CAPE and downdraft CAPE (DCAPE).

Impacts from the gusty winds will be pretty minor and limited to the typical blowing dust and displaced trampoline or bouncy house.

Day 2 Sunday: The downburst potential increases more on Sunday with a much more supportive upper level pattern. A fast moving short wave trough passes through northern NM on Sunday increasing the NW flow aloft and cooling aloft. Lapse rates steepen quite a bit more by early afternoon and supportive of CAPE around 400-800 J/kg and DCAPE around 600 J/kg. Deep layer shear increases to 30-40 kts especially from the Highlands south towards SE NM and in phase with the instability. HREF hints at a least small chance (<10%) of CAPE reaching 1000 J/kg in a few spots in E NM. Should the models be under forecasting CAPE then maybe there is support for a marginal severe weather risk for damaging winds. More than likely storms produce wind gusts closer to 50 mph than 60 mph. The main impacts from these kinds of winds will again be blowing dust but could damage weak structures and toss trampolines.

Hi-res CAMs and synoptic models all have a pretty clear signal for convection developing in the Las Vegas (not Nevada) area of the Highlands in the early afternoon and then work off to the SE. Isolated activity then develops down the mountain chains towards the Sacramento Mountains. It looks like storms will be in the vicinity of Ruidoso but likely moving too fast and with not a lot of rain to cause any issues on the burn scars.

The wildcard in all of this is the back door surface cold front that surges down the eastern Plains bring a surge of moisture to the region. Models need to have a good handle on it's evolution and magnitude of moisture. The boundary layer moisture will be key to the whole convective scenario and where the forecast goes sideways for the intensity of storms. Will dewpoints in the 40s be the key to this all? Lastly we will throw in the mention of east canyon winds for the ABQ metro area late Sunday due to the back door front but just not a lot of confidence on the intensity of winds with it.

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LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Day 3 Monday: The upper level ridge strikes back. Star Wars reference intended. Yes that synoptic feature that reared its ugly head back at the end of March comes back to life like Darth Maul. Synoptic ensemble model suites are all in pretty good agreement with an anomalously high (+12 DAM) 500 mb ridge building over AZ/NM on Monday. As such temperatures rebound quite a bit in E NM with temperatures back into the mid/upper 80s after 70s on Sunday.

Day 4-7: Tuesday the ridge builds over NM with 590 DAM heights at 500mb or again about +12 DAM above normal. It will be quite possible that kind of 500mb height would be close to a record on the 18Z ABQ sounding. And that would make sense given this height would be right around the 99th percentile of climo. Heat risk builds into the moderate category for much of NM as high temps reach the 90s which will be only about 2 weeks ahead of schedule instead of 2 months (at least for ABQ metro). Roswell will probably be in reach of 100F.

Wednesday through the end of the week the upper level ridge moves over Texas and southwest flow aloft develops over NM. A weak shortwave passes by on Thursday which could bring some elevated convection to the area. Again not much moisture with this system so virga will be the most likely outcome from any convection. After that ensemble model suites become quite divergent in their solutions. Cluster analysis shows exactly that...a cluster. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles all favor different outcomes from each other. All this means is that there is very low confidence in the forecast day 7 and beyond.

39/Discussion courtesy the WCM working night ops. Take it for what it is worth.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. West and northwest winds will be stronger in many locations on Saturday, including the eastern plains. Isolated convection will cause virga resulting in gusty downburst winds. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected east of the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Saturday afternoon and evening. The stronger convection will cause downburst wind gusts up to 45 kts which will be erratic in direction for most areas across New Mexico in the afternoon.

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FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

In general, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast over the next 7 days. There are days in which fire weather conditions will be elevated. Elevated conditions are expected for much of the region today due to min relative humidity under 15 percent but winds will not reach critical thresholds leading to the RH component of RFTI in the 3-4 range. Sunday elevated conditions exist in both eastern and western NM but for different reasons...winds in E NM and min RH in W and C NM.

For Sunday...thunderstorm activity with gusty downburst winds will be an issue for E NM and the Highlands down to the Sacramento Mtns. Lightning could ignite new fire starts depending upon how much rain falls with these storms.

Heat builds on Monday into Tuesday supporting min RH below 10 percent for much of the region on Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to be 10-17 degrees above normal by Tuesday. This will support widespread elevated to near critical conditions due to the low RH but winds should remain below critical thresholds. Similar conditions should persist through the end of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 83 46 81 46 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 33 79 33 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 79 44 77 40 / 10 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 82 40 80 35 / 5 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 79 46 78 44 / 5 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 82 46 81 42 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 80 48 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 81 55 79 48 / 10 10 5 0 Datil........................... 78 51 77 45 / 5 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 86 46 87 43 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 90 49 90 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 35 73 35 / 10 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 77 54 74 49 / 10 5 10 0 Pecos........................... 79 47 71 40 / 10 5 30 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 41 70 40 / 20 10 10 0 Red River....................... 64 37 59 35 / 20 10 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 71 29 64 26 / 10 10 40 0 Taos............................ 78 39 74 34 / 10 10 10 0 Mora............................ 77 45 66 39 / 10 10 40 0 Espanola........................ 84 49 81 46 / 10 5 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 79 52 74 45 / 5 5 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 49 77 44 / 5 5 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 59 82 52 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 55 84 49 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 55 87 49 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 56 85 51 / 5 5 0 0 Belen........................... 90 54 86 47 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 89 55 86 50 / 5 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 89 53 86 45 / 5 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 89 56 87 50 / 5 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 89 54 86 47 / 5 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 83 58 80 51 / 5 5 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 88 56 85 50 / 5 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 92 61 88 53 / 5 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 55 77 47 / 5 5 20 0 Tijeras......................... 81 54 78 47 / 5 5 10 0 Edgewood........................ 83 52 77 43 / 5 5 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 47 77 38 / 5 5 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 79 49 69 41 / 5 5 20 0 Mountainair..................... 83 51 77 43 / 5 5 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 82 51 75 44 / 5 5 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 85 59 79 51 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 79 57 72 48 / 5 5 30 10 Capulin......................... 75 40 59 36 / 5 20 20 0 Raton........................... 80 42 65 37 / 10 10 20 0 Springer........................ 82 44 67 39 / 10 10 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 80 49 66 41 / 10 10 20 0 Clayton......................... 84 49 66 42 / 5 20 20 0 Roy............................. 82 49 66 41 / 10 10 10 0 Conchas......................... 91 53 74 45 / 10 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 87 52 72 43 / 5 5 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 93 53 74 45 / 5 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 93 54 75 45 / 5 5 5 0 Portales........................ 94 54 77 45 / 5 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 92 54 77 45 / 5 5 5 0 Roswell......................... 95 60 83 52 / 5 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 89 57 77 49 / 5 5 10 10 Elk............................. 88 56 78 47 / 5 5 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.