textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Breezy to windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth through mid week.

- A few strong to severe storms will focus over the eastern plains this afternoon, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A persistent troughing pattern will continue across the Intermountain and Desert SW through Thursday, bringing breezy to windy and very dry conditions to western NM while pulling Gulf moisture northward into eastern NM. The Gulf moisture will fuel rounds of daytime heating initiated convection across eastern NM this afternoon/evening and again on Thursday. The latest NAM is advertising considerable instability near the TX border this afternoon, with muCAPE approaching 4,000J/kg and LIs up to -9C. Modeled 0-6km bulk shear isn't screaming at only 25kts, but dCAPE values of over 2,000J/kg are more than sufficient for damaging wind gusts. The SPC has included much of the eastern plains in a marginal risk for severe storms on the day 1 convective outlook. Similar setup Thursday, but with even less shear and the severe threat more focused on damaging wind gusts across the east central and southeast plains. In addition, the latest CAMs show convective initiation near the Ruidoso area burn scars Thursday, bringing at least a low threat for burn scar flash flooding. Smoke from area wildfires will continue across more remote portions of NM and are not modeled to cause widespread air quality issues at this time.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The troughing pattern across the Intermountain West is forecast to diminish from Friday through the weekend as the jet stream retreats northward, allowing the Monsoon high to build over the region. At the same time, PWATs are modeled to increase as low level moisture is pulled under the upper high circulation, resulting in increasing chances for round of daytime heating initiated convection. The slow uptrend in PWATs is forecast to continue through next week, bringing improved chances for showers and storms and an increasing threat for burn scar flash flooding.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with low probabilities for short-lived MVFR conditions at KROW in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and early evening. In addition, areas of smoke from wildfires across the region will impact the airspace, but are not forecast to impact TAF sites. Otherwise, gusty south-southwest winds will return by mid day Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A troughing pattern persists across the Intermountain West, bringing continued breezy/gusty southwest winds and very dry conditions to western NM, while pulling Gulf moisture northward into eastern NM. Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast across western and northern NM this afternoon, with a round of wetting storms across much of eastern NM. The drier airmass across western NM is forecast to progress further northeast on Thursday, bringing a downtrend in humidity to northeast NM while a deepening lee side trough provides windy conditions. The result will be several hours of critical fire weather conditions and a watch has been issued for Thursday. Winds are still forecast to trend down from Friday through the weekend as the jet stream retreats northward and the Monsoon high gets established over the region. In the meantime, increasingly dry conditions will prevail across western NM, with many hours of single digit humidities expanding east into north central areas by Friday. Chances for wetting storms and humidity will increase slowly late in the weekend into early next week as low level moisture is pulled into the Monsoon high circulation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 39 88 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 85 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 85 44 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 84 48 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 89 48 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 85 50 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 87 60 88 61 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 83 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 88 46 91 47 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 93 52 95 54 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 80 42 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 85 60 87 61 / 0 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 85 52 86 54 / 10 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 80 40 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 40 80 40 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 85 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 83 51 85 51 / 10 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 91 56 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 85 58 86 60 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 56 89 57 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 66 93 67 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 64 94 64 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 61 96 62 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 63 95 65 / 10 10 0 0 Belen........................... 95 59 96 61 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 63 95 64 / 10 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 58 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 63 96 64 / 10 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 60 96 61 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 90 63 91 64 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 94 63 95 64 / 10 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 98 66 99 67 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 87 61 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 90 58 91 59 / 10 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 90 55 91 56 / 10 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 51 91 53 / 10 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 84 54 86 54 / 10 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 89 56 90 58 / 10 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 57 88 58 / 20 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 90 63 91 62 / 20 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 82 57 84 57 / 40 5 40 0 Capulin......................... 85 53 88 54 / 20 10 0 0 Raton........................... 88 52 91 52 / 10 5 0 0 Springer........................ 90 54 93 54 / 10 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 86 54 88 55 / 10 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 93 63 95 64 / 20 10 0 0 Roy............................. 88 58 90 58 / 20 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 96 63 97 63 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 61 92 61 / 40 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 95 66 96 66 / 30 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 92 65 92 65 / 50 30 30 5 Portales........................ 93 66 93 65 / 50 30 40 5 Fort Sumner..................... 93 65 94 65 / 30 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 93 68 95 68 / 40 20 10 5 Picacho......................... 90 60 91 60 / 60 10 40 5 Elk............................. 88 59 89 58 / 50 20 50 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123.