textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026 - Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a lower risk of isolated tornadoes.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northwest New Mexico tonight.

- Heavy rainfall will impact central and eastern parts of the forecast area tonight with a continued risk of flash flooding. The risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist east of the central mountain chain Sunday and Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

An upper-level low currently centered over the California and Arizona border will track northeastward across the Southwest today. Anomalous moisture, favorable upper-level forcing, and daytime heating will support more widespread showers and storms across the state the remainder of the day, with activity already ongoing across portions of western, central, and northern New Mexico at time of writing. The greatest severe weather potential this afternoon and evening will favor south, central, and southeastern zones, where sufficient instability (~1000 J/kg CAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (40-50 knots) could support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging outflow wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rain and flash flooding will also continue to be a significant concern through tonight, especially across central and eastern portions of the state. Forecast PWATs are roughly 2-5 standard deviations above normal in these areas. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.50 to up to 3 inches are possible along and east of the central mountain chain, with locally higher totals up to 4-4.5 inches across northeastern New Mexico. Additional rainfall may exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns, particularly where storms repeatedly affect the same locations or move over already saturated soils. Even brief heavy downpours could produce dangerous runoff in urban areas, arroyos, low-water crossings, and recent burn scar areas. The current Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, with our far eastern zones and the Upper Tularosa Valley now included in the Watch. Given the potential for another round of heavy rainfall Sunday, additional watch coverage will be likely by the next forecast package.

Speaking of Sunday, the upper low will continue its northeastward trek into the Four Corners and Colorado, shifting the moisture axis and primary focus for shower and storm activity toward eastern New Mexico while drier air starts to spread into western and west-central areas. The greatest flash flooding concerns will likely extend across portions of northeast and southeast New Mexico, where heavy rainfall from the remainder of today could increase vulnerability to any additional precipitation. Scattered precipitation coverage will continue across central areas while overall activity across the west diminishes. Snow accumulations across the highest peaks remains a possibility through Sunday night, and temperatures, specifically MaxTs, will generally be trending below average.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and storms may linger across the east-southeast on Monday due to residual moisture and a passing disturbance. However PWATs will be gradually declining, reducing the overall flash flooding threat. Drier air, increasing subsidence from weak ridging, and west-southwesterly flow are expected to promoting warmer and drier trends by midweek. The next system looks to approach the western CONUS by late week into next weekend, and the aforementioned southwesterly flow will likely be able to tap into more anomalous moisture to promote increasing rain chances. Long term models suggest modest shear, but instability doesn't look as favorable as the last couple of days. There is still a good bit of time until we reach this point in the forecast, so expect greater details and forecast refinement in the coming days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through tonight, favoring areas across central and eastern NM. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Much of the severe threat will wane by 04Z, but rain will persist overnight. MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in the stronger storms. Additionally, widespread low clouds will continue to impact areas along and east of the Central Mtn Chain through the overnight hours and through much of the day on Sunday. IFR to MVFR cigs will persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next 7 days. High humidity and chances for rainfall will persist the rest of this weekend. A brief period of warming/drying will follow early this upcoming week, with gusty southwesterly winds around 30-40 mph across the northeast on Tuesday afternoon. A return to wetter conditions is forecast by late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 44 60 35 62 / 40 40 10 0 Dulce........................... 42 58 35 60 / 80 60 30 0 Cuba............................ 44 59 36 60 / 80 30 10 0 Gallup.......................... 33 60 26 63 / 5 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 58 32 63 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 35 62 27 64 / 30 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 62 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 62 40 63 / 50 10 0 0 Datil........................... 39 59 34 63 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 38 64 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 44 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 52 33 54 / 90 60 50 0 Los Alamos...................... 44 56 41 58 / 100 70 30 0 Pecos........................... 42 60 35 62 / 100 70 40 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 56 36 58 / 100 60 40 0 Red River....................... 35 48 30 50 / 90 70 40 0 Angel Fire...................... 30 52 25 53 / 90 70 40 0 Taos............................ 40 59 34 59 / 90 70 40 0 Mora............................ 41 58 34 62 / 100 70 40 0 Espanola........................ 47 66 41 66 / 90 60 40 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 58 36 63 / 100 70 40 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 61 37 64 / 90 70 30 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 64 43 67 / 90 50 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 65 44 68 / 80 40 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 67 43 69 / 80 40 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 65 42 68 / 90 40 10 0 Belen........................... 49 70 44 69 / 80 30 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 67 43 68 / 90 50 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 46 68 41 69 / 80 30 10 0 Corrales........................ 48 66 41 68 / 90 40 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 46 69 40 69 / 80 30 10 0 Placitas........................ 48 63 42 66 / 90 50 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 67 45 67 / 90 40 20 0 Socorro......................... 48 70 44 70 / 80 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 61 40 62 / 90 50 30 0 Tijeras......................... 47 62 41 64 / 90 50 20 0 Edgewood........................ 46 61 38 63 / 90 50 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 62 31 64 / 90 50 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 59 38 62 / 90 60 20 5 Mountainair..................... 46 62 40 64 / 100 30 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 61 42 63 / 90 50 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 50 66 48 67 / 90 50 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 45 64 44 64 / 90 40 20 30 Capulin......................... 41 57 40 60 / 100 90 70 0 Raton........................... 43 57 37 65 / 100 80 60 0 Springer........................ 44 62 37 67 / 100 80 50 0 Las Vegas....................... 40 56 35 63 / 100 80 50 0 Clayton......................... 50 60 48 67 / 100 100 90 5 Roy............................. 48 58 45 63 / 100 90 70 5 Conchas......................... 53 66 50 70 / 90 90 80 10 Santa Rosa...................... 53 64 49 67 / 100 90 70 20 Tucumcari....................... 55 66 52 70 / 100 90 80 30 Clovis.......................... 54 63 51 65 / 90 90 80 50 Portales........................ 55 70 53 70 / 90 90 80 50 Fort Sumner..................... 55 67 53 68 / 100 90 90 40 Roswell......................... 57 67 54 66 / 100 70 70 40 Picacho......................... 52 69 51 67 / 100 60 50 50 Elk............................. 49 67 48 66 / 100 50 50 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ203-204-210>219-221>240.