textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 423 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Record high temperatures are forecast for many locations daily through Sunday.

- A more active pattern takes shape for the middle-to-latter portion of next week, with breezy conditions and at least some chances for rain and mountain snow.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1243 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft, currently centered just west of the Baja Spur, maintains its influence for the time being. The ridge is forecast to flatten slightly into Saturday, though mid-level heights don't change all that much. Downsloping wind component adds additional warming east of the central mountain chain. Upshot is that near-record to record-level warmth continues as we close out February; see Climate section below for more details.

Although the tropospheric column isn't "bone dry" by late winter standards, with 0.25" of precipitable water measured by the 00Z ABQ sounding, deep boundary-layer mixing will contribute to very low relative humidity values at the surface during the afternoon today. NW H7 flow actually trends down slightly as the day progresses, from about 35 knots down to 25, but should still be enough to produce some elevated fire weather conditions in east- central NM (particularly in the lee of Sandia/Manzano Mountains); see Fire Weather section below.

Winds ease back a bit more for Saturday, with mainly northwesterly breezes in the afternoon. High temps tick up another couple of degrees, making for a nice, warm day to end the week. Current forecast low of 42F at the ABQ Sunport would tie a record for highest minimum temperature on 28 Feb.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1243 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

March comes "in like a lamb", with Sunday the 1st being the warmest day of this stretch. Guidance actually shows the ridge aloft re-amplifying just slightly, with winds acquiring a more WNW direction leading to compressional heating east of the central mountains. Max temps will range from 15 to 25F above normal across the northern two-thirds of NM! Current forecast high of 80F at the ABQ Sunport would be the earliest ever 80F by several days. Worth noting that the NBM 5.0 probability of this occurring is only ~25%, however. The same guidance for ROW hitting 90F is ~35%.

One potential fly in the ointment for this forecast is a modest back-door cold front expected to penetrate into far northeastern NM "sometime" on Sunday, depending on one's guidance source. 00Z NAM has it reaching Clayton around 00Z/Mon, which seems like a reasonable compromise within the guidance suite. At any rate, not expecting said front to affect the seasonally hot temperatures south of I-40.

The pattern aloft changes by Monday, with jet-level/H25 flow becoming more zonal in response to a short-wave trough moving into the Great Basin. H7 gradient suggests that breezes begin to pick up again. More changes in store as aforementioned mid-level trough or weak low center treks across central CO on Tuesday. QPF continues to trend lower overall with this system, with latest WPC guidance keeping liquid equivalent amounts <0.10" across the area through next Thursday. Snow levels look rather high, with any light accumulations likely to remain above 8500 ft. Breezy to locally windy conditions are more likely with this system on Tue, with another following backdoor front cooling temps into Wed (though still 5-10 deg F above normal). Looks like Wed will feature somewhat of a break between systems, as short-wave/flat ridging aloft is forecast.

By next Thursday (05 Mar), the next in a potential series of upper-level troughs digs into the Intermountain West, with attendant H5 flow increasing again out of the WSW. 00Z GFS keeps this system as an open wave, whereas the ECMWF develops a slower- moving closed low. Moisture tap is limited, even in the ECMWF scenario, though.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Very high confidence that VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. Otherwise, a few northwesterly breezes and passing high cirrus clouds can be expected. KSAF will continue to experience northerly drainage winds from the late night through mid-morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1243 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Elevated to perhaps very localized critical fire weather conditions are expected today east-central NM, primarily in the lee of the Sandia/Manzano Mountains, where Red-Flag Threat Index reaches as high as 3 for a few hours. With the record-level warmth continuing, RH values are forecast to fall below 15%, except for the higher terrain and northwestern NM. Energy Release Components (ERC) in this areas are analyzed in the 50-60th percentile range. 20-ft. winds will be the limiting factor, as they are only forecast to touch 20mph sustained for a few hours in localized portions of the Elevated area described above.

Minimum RH values fall to 10-20% in valley locations Sat and Sun, but lighter winds will again keep the threat of fire spread relatively low. A back-door cold front increases RH above critical levels east of the central mountain chain for Monday. Upper-level storms systems appear to bring increasing breezes and potential for Elevated fire weather conditions for lower elevations again next Tue/Thu, but confidence is only low-to-moderate. Wetting rain looks very limited with the Tuesday system.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1243 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

ABQ Sunport is forecast to reach 74F today, which would be two degrees shy of the record for this date. Saturday's forecast high of 76F would break the record of 75F from 1972, if it verifies. Sunday's (01 Mar) current forecast high of 80F would smash the previous record of 74F, set in 1974. The current earliest 80F for ABQ is 09 March, set in 1989. For reference, the "normal" first date for ABQ to reach 80F is 15 April.

For Roswell, today's forecast high of 86F should easily break the previous daily record of 79 (last set in 2017). Saturday's current forecast high of 87F would tie a record, and Sunday's forecast of 88F would exceed the previous record of 86F (last set in 2006). If Roswell manages to reach 90F on Sunday (currently ~35% chance), it would not be the earliest, but much earlier than the usual first occurrence around 22 Apr.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 34 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 63 25 68 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 64 33 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 70 29 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 69 36 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 71 29 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 69 37 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 72 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 69 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 37 81 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 40 85 40 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 57 27 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 64 39 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 68 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 34 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 52 29 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 59 22 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 64 27 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 69 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 71 33 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 65 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 68 37 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 45 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 74 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 39 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 76 36 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 75 39 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 76 36 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 76 39 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 76 37 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 69 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 74 40 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 78 43 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 67 41 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 70 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 33 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 66 36 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 70 40 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 70 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 74 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 70 45 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 66 32 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 71 29 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 73 29 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 71 34 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 73 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 37 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 76 40 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 37 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 81 41 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 41 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 86 44 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 47 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 44 85 46 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.