textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, favoring central and eastern areas. High chances exist for widespread beneficial rainfall across eastern New Mexico. Some storms may become strong to severe across eastern NM.

- Gusty west to southwest winds will return Sunday and peak on Monday and Tuesday, then come back again toward the end of the work week. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high- profile vehicles.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Sunday and Monday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico, but fuels may not be receptive to fire spread due to rainfall from yesterday and today. Critical fire weather conditions are more likely toward the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1215 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms are ongoing early this morning across northern and central NM as west coast troughing persists and both Gulf and Pacific moisture stream into the area. Southwest winds aloft will trend up some today ahead of an upper level trough rotating northeast into the Intermountain West ahead of a deeper upper level low racing east toward northern CA. The stronger winds aloft will bring improved shear to much of the area today, as higher surface dewpoints provide increased surface- based instability. The SPC convective outlook continues to show a slight risk for severe storms across portions of the east central and southeast plains near the TX border, with a larger marginal risk that includes the remainder of north central and eastern NM. Both the latest HRRR and HREF show scattered to numerous convective coverage this afternoon across eastern NM, with very little west of the central mountain chain where moisture will be more limited. However, late day showers and storms are likely between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain, the crop will just be high-based and favor strong/erratic wind gusts to 40-50mph vs wetting (>0.10") rainfall. The flash flood threat in Ruidoso is non-zero again today, but will remain low given improved storm motion of 25-35mph and all of the latest modeling is favoring areas east of town. Convection will gradually diminish across eastern NM during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. PWATs will trend down significantly tonight into Sunday as a dry slot pivots over the region ahead of a potent upper low/trough over CA. A deepening lee side trough and strengthening southwest winds aloft late Sunday will bring widespread breezy to locally windy conditions.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1215 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The potent upper low over CA is forecast to open up and eject east across the Desert SW and southern Great Basin on Mon/Tue, bringing even stronger winds aloft and a deepening lee side trough. Windy conditions are forecast both days, but atmospheric mixing on Monday could be limited by increasing cloud cover resulting from moisture advection ahead of the upper level trough. Precipitation chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning across western and north central NM due to forcing associated with the approaching trough. Little to no impacts are expected from that round of precipitation, although the higher terrain could pick up a few inches of snow. There is a low to to moderate chance for wind speeds to reach advisory criteria across northern NM both Monday and Tuesday. The trough will bring a Pacific cold front on Tuesday and temperatures are forecast to dip below average across central and western areas. Temperatures will rebound Wed/Thu and winds will ramp back up toward the end of the week as another upper level trough approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MVFR cigs prevail at KROW this morning and are forecast to persist through at least 16Z. Short-lived MVFR conditions will be associated with sct/num showers and storms across eastern NM later today and may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will be of lower coverage and be high-based west of the central mountain chain, favoring strong/erratic wind gusts and blowing dust with potential for very short-lived MVFR visibility. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. Gusty south-southwest winds are forecast today, but will diminish rapidly after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Higher humidity is in place and scattered to numerous wetting storms are forecast across eastern NM today, with drier (<0.10") showers and storms across western areas. Lightning ignitions are possible across the area today, but more likely between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain. Drying is forecast Sunday, with a deepening lee side trough bringing gusty winds and the potential for critical fire weather conditions. However, wetting rainfall from yesterday into today will limit potential for large fire growth across eastern NM and winds across much of western NM will likely remain below critical threshold. The exception is closer to the AZ border in the West Central Mountains, where Red Flag Warning may be required. Windy conditions are forecast both Monday and Tuesday as an upper level trough approaches and moves over the region. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are possible both days, but will need to assess ERCs to get a better feel. The upper level trough will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to western and north central NM Monday night into Tuesday. Warming and drying is forecast from mid through late week, with moderate probabilities for critical fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 73 40 71 45 / 20 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 68 29 67 32 / 50 30 5 0 Cuba............................ 67 35 68 39 / 40 30 5 0 Gallup.......................... 69 31 67 33 / 20 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 66 36 65 35 / 20 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 71 33 70 34 / 20 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 69 35 67 37 / 20 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 71 42 70 46 / 20 20 0 0 Datil........................... 67 37 65 40 / 20 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 73 33 70 34 / 10 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 78 37 76 37 / 10 5 0 0 Chama........................... 60 30 60 31 / 60 30 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 66 43 66 44 / 50 50 10 0 Pecos........................... 65 38 66 39 / 70 60 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 63 36 63 37 / 60 40 5 0 Red River....................... 54 32 52 32 / 60 40 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 59 26 59 25 / 70 50 5 0 Taos............................ 68 32 67 32 / 60 40 5 0 Mora............................ 64 36 66 36 / 80 50 5 0 Espanola........................ 73 39 74 41 / 50 50 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 67 42 67 43 / 60 60 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 41 71 42 / 50 50 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 49 75 51 / 40 40 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 45 77 50 / 30 30 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 44 80 49 / 30 20 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 47 78 52 / 30 20 5 0 Belen........................... 79 41 80 47 / 20 30 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 78 45 78 50 / 40 40 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 79 39 79 46 / 30 30 5 0 Corrales........................ 79 45 78 50 / 30 30 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 78 42 79 48 / 20 20 5 0 Placitas........................ 73 47 73 50 / 40 50 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 77 47 78 51 / 30 30 5 0 Socorro......................... 81 46 81 52 / 20 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 43 69 46 / 40 50 5 0 Tijeras......................... 71 44 70 46 / 40 50 5 0 Edgewood........................ 72 40 71 42 / 40 50 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 74 37 73 37 / 50 50 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 67 40 68 39 / 70 50 5 0 Mountainair..................... 71 41 71 42 / 40 40 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 69 42 70 45 / 50 40 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 49 72 48 / 60 30 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 64 45 65 45 / 60 30 5 0 Capulin......................... 62 37 67 36 / 60 30 5 0 Raton........................... 67 35 70 34 / 60 30 5 0 Springer........................ 69 37 73 34 / 60 30 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 39 68 39 / 70 40 5 0 Clayton......................... 68 48 76 46 / 70 40 5 0 Roy............................. 64 42 72 41 / 80 50 5 0 Conchas......................... 74 47 80 47 / 70 50 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 46 77 48 / 70 40 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 74 51 83 48 / 80 50 5 0 Clovis.......................... 72 52 82 49 / 80 60 10 0 Portales........................ 74 50 83 49 / 80 60 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 73 48 81 48 / 70 50 5 0 Roswell......................... 76 53 83 50 / 70 40 5 0 Picacho......................... 72 49 76 49 / 70 30 5 0 Elk............................. 72 45 74 45 / 70 30 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.