textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Seasonable temperatures return with chances for showers and storms tonight through Tuesday. Storms this evening will be capable of gusty and erratic winds.

- After a quiet and warmer Wednesday, more unsettled weather will round out the week with chances for showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds, especially on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A shortwave trough moving past Las Vegas, NV this afternoon will be the catalyst for developing showers and embedded thunderstorms across New Mexico over the next 24-36hrs. The axis of the shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery as of 1pm, and as this races across AZ from west to east, these showers and storms will continue to arise along and ahead of the axis. The best chance for more widespread showers to begin developing in western NM is around and after 4-6pm. Once the shortwave enters NM (likely by midnight tonight), there is higher model agreement that the shortwave briefly becomes a weak closed low. In turn, that increases the lift along the axis of the shortwave as PVA increases, and thus precipitation amounts look to increase. The shortwave/closed low also looks to be taking a path directly along I-40, which looks to keep much of the appreciable precipitation along or south of the Interstate. There is still good chances of precipitation in northern areas, though they will lack the sufficient lift and are mostly going to rely on orographic forcing. Precip amounts look most likely to be in the 0.25-0.5" range along and south of I-40, with amounts up to 0.25" north of the Interstate (locally higher in the northern mountains). Alongside of rain, locales above 9,500-10,000ft in the northern mountains may see a few inches of snow, though little to no impacts should occur from snowfall.

Precipitation looks to continue in southern NM through the overnight hours as the shortwave charges through the state. On the backside of the shortwave, northwest flow returns to New Mexico Tuesday. However, precipitation is still likely to be going along the higher terrain and across eastern NM as southerly surface flow keeps the moisture around and the orographic forcing looks to continue shower and storm development. Lower elevation areas may not see much in the way of precipitation (only a few hundredths of an inch at most) but could see a few gusty outflows from evaporative cooling. Lightning chances remain the highest across central and western NM as surface heating will yield more instability, though it is not out of the question for eastern NM. Temperatures look to be near to below normal across the region, especially in places receiving adequate precipitation (highs in the upper 60s to low 70s). All in all, this is looking to be a beneficial stretch of rainfall for the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Northwest to west flow continues over the region Wednesday, allowing temperature to rise back up to above normal after our brief spell below normal. Humidity values drop back down in the mid teens for most of the area Wednesday, a rather sharp drop from the moisture- filled air of Tuesday. Surface flow turns more southerly on Thursday in eastern NM, beginning to establish a weak dryline across the TX panhandle, potentially extending as far west as eastern NM. Along with the southerly surface flow and weak diffluence aloft, isolated to scattered showers and storms look favored to develop. Given that humidity values likely remain at or below 20%, most showers that do develop should be virga in nature, favor gusty outflow winds rather than wetting precipitation. Cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm or two along the NM/TX border, but chances and confidence are low at this time.

Friday looks to begin a more active pattern. Southerly surface flow becomes stronger in eastern NM, pushing a pseudo dryline further westward than Thursday. Alongside this, a potent Pacific system spinning off the coast of CA should be beginning to influence the upper level winds by this point (increasing southwesterly flow). This starts to show signs for a potential severe weather event, however there are a few caveats. Widespread cloud cover is forecast through much of the event from Thursday afternoon onward. There may be a few breaks in the clouds Friday morning, but there would need to be sufficient surface heating to overcome the cloud cover. Additionally, dew points are forecast to only be in the 40s with a dew point depression >= 25F in many locations. Such depressions would hinder sufficient severe storms from forming, though would not completely eliminate it. Suffice to say, there is still low forecast confidence in severe storms Friday. Friday night appears favorable for repeated showers and storms as the overall synoptic flow becomes quasi-unidirectional. While the flash flood threat is low given the dry conditions out east, there is a low chance it could be "too much of a good thing."

Saturday looks quite similar in the overall setup, though the Pacific low approaches closer to NM. Thus, with southerly surface flow and an approaching low with synoptic lift, additional showers and storms are favored across much of the state. Models are fairly agreeable on the passing of a shortwave Sunday, once again bringing chances for showers and storms areawide. An active pattern is favored to continue into the early parts of next week with additional shortwaves and precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

High clouds continue to spread across the state from west to east this afternoon, signaling the beginning of lowering VFR ceilings throughout the rest of the day and into the night. SHRA to enter western NM between 21-00z and further expand eastward after 00z. A few thunderstorms may be observed prior to sunset across western NM, with moderate confidence of a TS affecting KGUP. SHRA continues to expand and move eastward across NM between 06-12z, bringing along MVFR to locally IFR ceilings and visibility. These ceilings and visibilities should reach KABQ and other central NM terminals by 09- 12z, and should remain through the rest of the TAF period. SHRA continues to push eastward through the southern third of NM, reaching KROW as early as 12z and continuing thereafter.

In eastern NM, breezy conditions remain through this afternoon with gusts up to 35kts, mainly in northeast NM near KCAO. Winds subside with sunset, though pockets of LLWS may be observed from KTCC northward after 06z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

With the exception of this afternoon across northeast NM, critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. After winds taper off in eastern NM this evening, widespread showers enter western NM and expand to a majority of the state through the overnight hours. This is likely to bring amounts between 0.25" and 0.5" along and south of I-40, with amounts up to 0.25" north of I- 40. More showers are expected Tuesday, mainly along the higher terrain and adjacent highlands. A few gusty outflow winds from isolated virga showers are possible in the valley locations, but confidence is only moderate in this. Drier conditions return Wednesday, though winds should remain light enough to limit any critical fire weather concerns. A few dry showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop in eastern NM Thursday afternoon with gusty outflow winds. Abundant moisture returns to the state Friday through the weekend as each day sees moderate to high chances of precipitation across much of the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are increasingly likely, though with low confidence if there will be severe storms in eastern NM on Friday. Overall, much needed and beneficial rainfall looks in store for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 45 70 39 76 / 30 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 32 66 25 71 / 20 80 10 5 Cuba............................ 37 63 34 71 / 40 70 30 5 Gallup.......................... 33 66 29 73 / 70 30 0 0 El Morro........................ 39 61 35 69 / 80 50 5 0 Grants.......................... 35 65 32 74 / 70 60 10 0 Quemado......................... 39 63 36 71 / 90 40 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 62 42 72 / 90 70 20 5 Datil........................... 40 60 38 69 / 90 70 10 5 Reserve......................... 36 69 33 76 / 90 30 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 75 37 81 / 80 20 0 0 Chama........................... 32 58 28 64 / 20 90 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 42 59 40 68 / 20 90 50 10 Pecos........................... 37 59 34 70 / 30 90 70 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 60 34 66 / 20 90 60 10 Red River....................... 32 50 30 56 / 20 90 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 24 55 22 62 / 20 90 70 20 Taos............................ 32 63 28 70 / 20 90 60 10 Mora............................ 34 58 34 69 / 20 90 70 10 Espanola........................ 39 67 36 76 / 20 80 50 5 Santa Fe........................ 42 60 39 70 / 30 80 70 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 63 37 74 / 30 70 60 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 66 46 76 / 40 70 40 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 68 43 79 / 50 60 40 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 70 41 81 / 50 50 30 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 69 43 79 / 40 60 30 0 Belen........................... 44 70 38 81 / 70 60 30 0 Bernalillo...................... 47 69 42 80 / 40 70 40 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 70 37 81 / 60 50 30 0 Corrales........................ 46 70 42 81 / 40 60 40 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 69 39 81 / 60 50 30 0 Placitas........................ 47 63 44 75 / 40 80 40 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 69 43 79 / 40 60 40 0 Socorro......................... 48 70 44 81 / 80 70 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 60 41 71 / 40 80 50 5 Tijeras......................... 44 62 42 72 / 40 80 50 5 Edgewood........................ 41 63 37 73 / 40 80 50 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 64 31 75 / 40 80 50 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 58 35 71 / 40 80 50 5 Mountainair..................... 40 63 38 73 / 60 80 40 5 Gran Quivira.................... 41 62 38 73 / 70 70 40 5 Carrizozo....................... 45 64 42 75 / 80 80 40 5 Ruidoso......................... 40 57 40 68 / 80 80 40 5 Capulin......................... 33 61 33 69 / 5 60 50 10 Raton........................... 32 65 30 73 / 5 70 50 10 Springer........................ 34 66 31 75 / 5 70 50 5 Las Vegas....................... 37 60 34 73 / 10 80 60 10 Clayton......................... 41 66 40 77 / 0 40 40 10 Roy............................. 39 63 35 75 / 5 60 60 10 Conchas......................... 45 67 38 83 / 10 50 50 10 Santa Rosa...................... 43 61 37 79 / 20 70 50 5 Tucumcari....................... 45 69 39 83 / 5 40 40 5 Clovis.......................... 44 63 40 81 / 10 50 30 0 Portales........................ 44 62 37 82 / 10 60 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 43 63 36 81 / 20 60 40 5 Roswell......................... 46 67 42 81 / 50 80 30 5 Picacho......................... 43 62 39 78 / 70 80 30 5 Elk............................. 39 64 36 77 / 80 80 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.