textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth into mid week.

- Dry storms and showers will produce strong and erratic wind gusts in central and northern New Mexico this afternoon and evening.

- A few strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico this afternoon and again on Wednesday near the Texas and Oklahoma borders.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Troughing will persist over the region through Wednesday, bringing continued breezy to locally windy conditions and drawing Gulf moisture northward into eastern and portions of central NM. Surface dewpoint temperatures are already rising into the 50s across the eastern plains and this moisture will fuel a round of scattered daytime heating initiated convection by mid day. The CAMs are increasingly bullish on coverage of showers and storms across eastern NM this afternoon. A few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out near the eastern border of NM later today, but the better combination of shear and instability will reside across the TX and OK Panhandles. Mostly dry convection is forecast across central NM this afternoon and the NAM is advertising dCAPE values of around 2,000J/kg which is more than sufficient for a damaging wind gust threat. In addition, convective outflow in the RGV this afternoon may produce areas of blowing dust with potential for significant reduction to visibilities. Similar setup on Wednesday, although with higher surface dewpoint temperatures across eastern NM bringing increased instability and a slightly greater threat for severe storms. The NAM is advertising even higher dCAPE values approaching 2,500J/kg across eastern NM Wednesday afternoon, with the main severe threat being damaging downburst winds.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The jet stream is forecast to retreat northward going into late week and through the weekend, allowing the Monsoon high to get established over the region. PWATs will trend up slowly in this regime, with an increase in coverage of daily rounds of showers and storms from east to west going into early next week. While PWATs trend up, steering flow will trend down, bringing a threat for burn scar flash flooding to Ruidoso. By Tuesday of next week, the medium range model consensus is for a Four Corners high of around 594-596dam at 500mb and a continued upswing in PWATs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, except for potential short-lived MVFR conditions at KROW Tuesday afternoon with scattered showers and storms. Iso/sct showers and storms that develop in the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace Tuesday afternoon will favor strong/erratic wind gusts with low probabilities for MVFR conditions in blowing dust from convective outflow. Smoke from area wildfires will continue to be a low probability impact at TAF sites per the latest HRRR smoke output. Otherwise, gusty south-southwest winds will prevail Tuesday and will be slow to diminish Tuesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A troughing pattern over the Intermountain West will persist through mid week bringing very dry and breezy conditions to much of western NM, while Gulf moisture brings improved humidity and chances for wetting storms to eastern areas. Forecast wind speeds are a limiter for critical fire weather conditions across western NM today, except for the West Central Mountains near the AZ border where winds will exceed critical threshold. Otherwise, very dry conditions will persist across western NM, with the number of hours of single digit humidity expanding each day through Thursday while chances for wetting storms increase across eastern NM. A few dry storms or virga showers are likely across central NM this afternoon and again on Wednesday, with strong/erratic wind gusts and new ignitions possible. The jet stream is forecast to retreat northward from the end of the week and into early next week, allowing the Monsoon high to take hold and ending the threat of critical fire weather conditions. PWATs are forecast to increase through the weekend and into early next week, bringing improved humidity and increasing chances for wetting storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 51 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 44 85 42 / 20 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 84 52 86 51 / 10 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 85 45 85 43 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 82 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 87 49 87 47 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 84 52 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 86 59 87 58 / 10 5 5 0 Datil........................... 83 53 83 52 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 87 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 91 52 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 43 78 43 / 20 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 60 84 60 / 20 20 0 5 Pecos........................... 85 52 86 52 / 30 30 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 51 81 51 / 20 30 0 5 Red River....................... 74 42 74 41 / 20 30 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 77 38 77 38 / 20 40 5 5 Taos............................ 84 50 84 50 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 81 50 82 50 / 20 40 5 10 Espanola........................ 91 56 91 55 / 10 20 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 85 58 85 57 / 20 20 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 56 89 55 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 58 95 57 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 63 93 61 / 10 10 0 0 Belen........................... 94 61 95 60 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 93 61 94 60 / 10 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 93 58 94 57 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 93 61 94 60 / 10 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 93 59 94 58 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 89 63 89 62 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 63 92 62 / 10 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 67 97 65 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 58 85 57 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 87 58 87 58 / 10 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 86 56 87 56 / 20 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 51 89 51 / 20 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 84 54 / 30 20 10 5 Mountainair..................... 87 57 88 56 / 20 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 85 57 86 57 / 30 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 88 63 89 63 / 30 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 80 55 82 55 / 40 10 20 10 Capulin......................... 85 52 85 50 / 30 20 10 10 Raton........................... 89 52 88 50 / 30 30 5 10 Springer........................ 91 54 90 52 / 20 30 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 85 53 / 30 40 10 20 Clayton......................... 92 62 91 62 / 30 20 20 20 Roy............................. 88 59 88 57 / 20 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 95 64 94 63 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 90 62 90 61 / 40 30 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 94 67 94 65 / 20 30 20 20 Clovis.......................... 90 64 90 64 / 60 40 40 30 Portales........................ 94 65 93 65 / 60 50 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 92 65 93 65 / 40 20 30 20 Roswell......................... 93 67 95 67 / 50 30 40 20 Picacho......................... 88 61 89 61 / 70 20 40 20 Elk............................. 84 58 86 58 / 60 20 40 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105.