textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

- Areas of rain will continue to impact areas along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon with scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in western and north central areas through this evening.

- Winter travel conditions will impact the high northern mountains through tonight.

- Gusty east winds up 50 mph will continue below canyons into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys through the early morning.

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, bringing more showers, storms and high mountain snow.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

The upper low has opened up and is ejecting quickly east into far west TX as a trailing shortwave trough drops slowly south toward the Four Corners per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Isentropic upglide continues to create areas of rain across the east central and southeast plains of NM this afternoon, while a round of daytime heating generated convection has sprouted along/near the Continental Divide along the leading edge of the backdoor cold front this afternoon. The latest CAMs show the areas of rain across eastern NM diminishing by late afternoon, while convection along the Continental Divide moves slowly east toward the RGV and across the northern mountains. Will hold onto the winter highlights for the Tusas and Sangre De Cristo Mountains through this evening, despite a lack of current impacts, with consecutive runs of the CAMs favoring north central NM through the evening hours. Given wet grounds and sufficient clearing overnight across central/eastern NM areas of fog will likely develop, but forecast confidence is low on location. The trailing shortwave trough will move over on Saturday and help to generate a round of showers w/isolated thunder across central and western NM, favoring the mountains. Otherwise, Saturday will be warmer, but with highs 5-15 degrees below average.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Ridging aloft will bring warmer conditions on Sun/Mon, but sufficient moisture will remain for isolated to scattered daytime heating triggered showers and storms that will favor the western and northern mountains. The ridge will flatten some on Monday and stronger westerlies will combine with daytime mixing to produce breezy to locally windy conditions by afternoon. Moisture advection will begin Monday night and continue through Tuesday in advance of the next Pacific low, forecast to impact the region through mid week. Precipitation chances will favor western and northern NM with the mid week Pacific low. The 12Z model solutions start to show considerable spread with placement of upper air features beyond Wednesday of next week, but all agree on a weakened and displaced jet stream, meaning no significant wind systems on the horizon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

A mixed bag of VFR down to IFR conditions prevail across the forecast area and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with slow deterioration overnight. A round of scattered showers w/isolated storms will impact the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace between 21-02Z, with short-lived MVFR impacts possible. MVFR conditions in light rain at KROW are forecast to persist through the afternoon, then improve to VFR late this evening. MVFR conditions will likely return to KROW early Saturday morning, with low probabilities for IFR conditions in fog. A gusty east canyon wind will persist at KABQ into the evening hours, but gusts are forecast to remain below Airport Weather Warning criteria at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days, mainly due to improving ERCs and a lack of drying wind systems. A fairly widespread wetting precipitation event will continue through this evening, followed by a round of isolated to scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon. Higher than normal humidity will persist into Sunday, with sufficient moisture to fuel a round of daytime heating triggered wetting showers and storms across central and western NM. Winds will trend up and humidity will trend down on Monday in advance of an approaching Pacific low, bringing a few hours of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions to western areas where ERCs will be more favorable. Moisture advection from Monday night through Tuesday in advance of the next Pacific low will bring back higher humidity and increasing chances for wetting precipitation that will favor western and northern NM going through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 41 70 42 75 / 10 5 5 5 Dulce........................... 28 65 31 70 / 40 20 10 10 Cuba............................ 31 61 35 68 / 50 30 10 20 Gallup.......................... 34 65 34 71 / 30 20 10 20 El Morro........................ 35 60 36 67 / 50 40 10 20 Grants.......................... 34 62 34 70 / 60 40 10 20 Quemado......................... 38 63 38 68 / 40 40 10 30 Magdalena....................... 39 59 41 67 / 60 40 30 30 Datil........................... 38 57 38 65 / 70 60 30 30 Reserve......................... 37 67 36 72 / 40 50 20 10 Glenwood........................ 38 72 39 77 / 30 40 10 10 Chama........................... 27 58 30 63 / 60 30 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 36 60 41 66 / 60 30 10 20 Pecos........................... 30 59 34 67 / 60 40 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 58 33 64 / 70 30 20 10 Red River....................... 22 48 27 54 / 70 30 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 19 52 22 60 / 70 30 20 20 Taos............................ 28 61 31 68 / 70 20 10 10 Mora............................ 26 56 30 65 / 70 30 20 10 Espanola........................ 37 66 40 73 / 60 20 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 34 60 39 68 / 60 40 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 34 63 37 71 / 50 30 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 64 47 72 / 40 40 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 66 45 73 / 30 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 41 68 44 75 / 30 30 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 66 45 74 / 40 30 10 20 Belen........................... 38 68 40 75 / 40 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 40 67 44 75 / 40 30 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 38 68 40 75 / 30 30 10 20 Corrales........................ 40 67 44 75 / 40 30 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 38 68 40 75 / 40 30 10 20 Placitas........................ 40 63 44 71 / 40 40 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 42 66 45 74 / 40 30 10 20 Socorro......................... 43 67 45 75 / 50 30 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 59 40 67 / 40 40 20 20 Tijeras......................... 37 61 41 68 / 40 40 20 20 Edgewood........................ 34 61 37 69 / 40 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 62 28 71 / 30 30 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 31 58 36 67 / 30 30 20 10 Mountainair..................... 34 59 38 68 / 30 40 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 34 58 37 67 / 30 50 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 41 60 44 68 / 40 50 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 35 53 39 63 / 40 50 20 10 Capulin......................... 27 60 34 68 / 30 10 5 10 Raton........................... 27 64 31 72 / 50 10 5 10 Springer........................ 29 65 32 74 / 50 10 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 28 58 33 68 / 50 20 10 10 Clayton......................... 35 68 42 76 / 20 5 0 5 Roy............................. 32 63 37 72 / 40 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 36 69 41 79 / 30 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 36 65 40 74 / 30 20 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 38 71 43 80 / 20 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 39 67 42 76 / 20 10 5 5 Portales........................ 39 69 41 76 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 38 67 41 76 / 20 20 5 5 Roswell......................... 44 67 45 77 / 20 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 39 60 40 73 / 30 20 10 5 Elk............................. 35 57 36 71 / 40 20 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ210.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ213>215.