textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1038 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico over the next week as several backdoor cold fronts press through the area. Warmest conditions are expected today, while the coldest are expected Saturday.

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

The northerly winds behind Wednesday's front across eastern NM have now veered around to the south and west. A weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft will increase winds along an area from KFMN to KCQC to KROW late this afternoon. At H7, wind speeds will reach 30-40kt, however, atmospheric mixing will be rather poor today, so this momentum will struggle to reach the surface. Best chances for increased winds will be near and south of the I-40 corridor across eastern NM where gusts between 25 and 35kt are forecast this afternoon. The downslope component to the winds will allow temperatures across eastern NM to climb into the low 70s, or around 15 to 20 degrees above normal. These high temperatures will put a few record highs in jeopardy, including at Las Vegas, Tucumcari, Conchas Dam and Fort Sumner. Elsewhere, temperatures will be within a degree or two of yesterday's readings.

As the surface low slides southeastward across NM/West TX this evening, an initial weak boundary will push through northeast NM, but the stronger backdoor cold front will arrive after midnight as a potent low moves into the Upper Midwest. This front will quickly press southward through the plains, bringing breezy conditions to eastern NM in its wake. The front should back up to the Central Mountain Chain, but doesn't look like it will have enough oomph to push through the gaps into the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures across eastern NM on Friday will drop 15 to 25 degrees from today's readings. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today as H5 heights lower a few decameters.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

A second trough/low will push into the Upper Midwest Friday night which will send a reinforcing backdoor front into eastern NM on Saturday. High temperatures will drop further, and most locations will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. There's a very small chance (<=10%) that a flake or two of snow will fall across far northeast NM behind the front as a batch of moisture swoops southward from the northern Rockies. This front has a slightly better chance of pushing through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain early Saturday afternoon and bringing a weak east gap wind to the Rio Grande Valley, especially in the Santa Fe area. However, by Saturday evening, the front will already mix out and winds will veer around to the south or southwest.

On Sunday, northwest flow aloft will be the rule. Moderate to weak downsloping will allow temperatures to warm up across the plains to back above normal readings. A few breezes will be noted around the Clines Corners area.

An even deeper upper low will move into the Great Lakes region on Monday which will send yet another backdoor cold front into NM. Thus, temperatures will yo-yo back downward across eastern NM while another weak gap wind will be possible in the Rio Grande Valley.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the highly amplified upper ridge that will be near the western coast for the next several days will finally start to break down, but widespread sensible weather changes for NM aren't expected through Wednesday. Although, another backdoor front may push into northeast NM on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions persist and are expected to remain throughout the TAF period. Breezy west winds gusting up to 30kts are likely across central NM from KCQC to KSXU, down to northern Chaves County and east to KCVS. Elsewhere, light winds remain with a few breezes up to 20kts. A backdoor front begins to push into northeast NM by 22-23z and continuing throughout the evening and overnight hours. Wind shifts have been noted in eastern TAF sites (KTCC, KROW) for the expected passage of the front. KSAF is likely to see another northerly drainage wind overnight. LLWS increases over the northern mountains after 00z, and increasing further after 12z. With the frontal passage and stronger winds aloft, LLWS appears likely at KROW overnight, so have included this in the TAF. Isolated instances of LLWS may occur at KTCC after 12z with a further east wind shift.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. Breezy westerly winds will develop today across east central NM but most breezes the rest of the week will be associated with backdoor cold fronts across eastern NM. Backdoor fronts are expected Friday, Saturday and Monday which will oscillate temperatures across the plains, but little day-to-day change is expected elsewhere. Light winds outside of frontal passages will result in many areas of poor ventilation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 22 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 15 47 11 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 20 47 19 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 16 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 23 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 59 19 52 16 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 21 51 21 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 58 31 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 56 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 64 21 60 19 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 66 25 66 23 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 48 17 42 12 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 51 27 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 54 24 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 22 42 16 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 43 19 34 12 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 48 8 40 1 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 51 15 46 10 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 59 23 48 14 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 57 21 52 18 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 51 28 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 24 49 21 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 32 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 29 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 26 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 29 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 57 21 56 20 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 27 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 57 21 56 21 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 58 28 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 24 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 29 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 58 29 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 60 29 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 28 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 50 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 54 24 51 23 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 19 52 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 52 24 47 18 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 26 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 55 26 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 58 30 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 32 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 58 16 40 10 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 60 16 44 11 / 0 0 0 10 Springer........................ 62 17 47 12 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 62 22 46 14 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 66 25 43 16 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 64 22 42 15 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 70 25 49 18 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 26 48 19 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 71 25 49 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 29 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 69 28 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 27 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 68 32 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 68 32 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 68 31 53 24 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.