textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty and erratic winds can be expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from storms across western New Mexico Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding could result where storms train over the same area repeatedly.

- Above normal high temperatures will raise the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The 597dm H5 monsoon high has progressed well over eastern NM and western TX, allowing for a healthy monsoonal plume of moisture to push northward into the Desert Southwest. The 18Z ABQ UA sounding has ticked up to 0.99" in response. An area of broken cloud cover with shower and embedded thunderstorm activity has persisted overnight and thru this morning over northern AZ and is now progressing further into northwestern NM. Scattered diurnally driven CI along the Continental Divide will also begin this afternoon thru west-central NM northward. This activity will generally move northeastward over the northwest highlands and north-central mountains later today and tonight. Gusty and erratic wind gusts emanating from this activity will be the most widespread impact, and is expected to push into parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley late this afternoon and evening focusing from Belen to ABQ to Santa Fe. Some blowing dust could be kicked up by these gusty outflow winds, interrupting outdoor activities. The eastern plains remain hot and dry with highs climbing back into the upper 90s to near 100F. This will result in a moderate to major heat risk.

Conditions calm overnight with scattered to broken cloud cover persisting through much of the night into Sunday morning across western and central NM. The H5 high slides further east over Ark-LA- Tex region allowing for the continuation of the monsoon plume into eastern AZ and western NM both Sunday and Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will again favor development over the high terrain along and west of the Continental Divide. This will again favor storms moving northeastward, with subsequent convection trying to reach into portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley and north-central NM. Gusty winds blowing around dust will be the main resulting impact for areas between Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe, with better chances of wetting precipitation further north. There is also a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall producing flash flooding over portions of west-central and northwestern NM where thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall pass over the same areas repeatedly. Eastern NM remains hot and dry both days.

Monday's thunderstorm activity features some forecast uncertainty regarding an approaching upper trough from CA absorbing a remnant convective vort-max moving northward amid the monsoon plume. Broken to overcast skies and persistent shower activity associated with this feature over eastern AZ and western NM thru Sunday night and Monday morning is likely to stabilize conditions a fair amount. This would in turn limit the strength of convection Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Ensemble model guidance continues to advertise the H5 high expanding westward over eastern NM, reducing the push of monsoonal moisture into the Desert Southwest. The questions remains by how much with some runs substantially lowering precipitation chances, with others maintaining a more steady decline in thunderstorm activity. Highs will climb again thru central and western NM however.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will tend to be concentrated over western and central New Mexico this evening and again Sunday afternoon. Typical aviation hazards will include lightning, small hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours under the stronger cells. Much of the storm activity will dwindle and die off before midnight, but showers may occasionally redevelop with additional batches of showers moving into western New Mexico through the late morning Sunday. The atmosphere will then destabilize with new storms redeveloping over the high terrain of the Continental Divide of western New Mexico Sunday afternoon before filling in to nearby valleys and lowlands.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Hot and dry conditions with persistent southerly to southeasterly flow persists over the eastern plains thru the forecast period. Monsoonal moisture pushing into the Desert Southwest as the main monsoon high slides eastward brings daily rounds of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity across western NM. This activity will push into portions of central and north-central NM late afternoon and evening, with gusty and erratic winds and blowing dust favored thru the middle Rio Grande Valley. Better chances for wetting rain will exist thru western, northwestern, and north-central NM. Precipitation chances fall again Tuesday and beyond for western NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 87 61 79 / 40 40 60 60 Dulce........................... 49 86 52 80 / 50 40 50 60 Cuba............................ 57 85 57 79 / 40 40 50 60 Gallup.......................... 55 86 55 77 / 50 50 70 70 El Morro........................ 54 82 54 76 / 40 40 60 60 Grants.......................... 57 86 56 79 / 30 50 60 50 Quemado......................... 57 83 56 78 / 30 60 50 60 Magdalena....................... 62 86 62 84 / 20 40 20 50 Datil........................... 57 82 56 78 / 20 50 30 50 Reserve......................... 56 91 57 85 / 20 40 50 50 Glenwood........................ 62 97 61 91 / 20 30 40 40 Chama........................... 51 79 51 76 / 50 40 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 62 84 61 82 / 30 40 30 40 Pecos........................... 60 88 58 86 / 10 10 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 83 55 82 / 20 30 30 50 Red River....................... 49 75 47 74 / 20 20 20 60 Angel Fire...................... 44 81 41 80 / 10 20 20 70 Taos............................ 55 87 54 85 / 20 20 20 40 Mora............................ 55 85 55 83 / 10 20 5 50 Espanola........................ 61 91 60 90 / 20 30 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 63 88 61 86 / 10 20 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 91 59 89 / 10 20 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 95 66 93 / 20 20 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 94 66 92 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 96 65 94 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 94 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 Belen........................... 65 96 64 93 / 20 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 68 95 66 93 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 63 95 62 93 / 20 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 68 95 66 93 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 65 95 63 93 / 20 20 20 20 Placitas........................ 68 92 65 90 / 20 20 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 68 94 66 92 / 20 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 70 98 69 96 / 20 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 89 60 87 / 10 20 10 30 Tijeras......................... 63 89 61 87 / 10 10 10 30 Edgewood........................ 60 91 59 89 / 10 10 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 93 56 91 / 10 10 5 30 Clines Corners.................. 61 89 59 87 / 10 10 5 20 Mountainair..................... 60 91 59 89 / 10 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 90 59 89 / 5 10 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 94 66 92 / 0 5 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 86 60 85 / 5 10 10 30 Capulin......................... 59 88 58 86 / 10 20 10 30 Raton........................... 57 91 55 90 / 10 20 10 40 Springer........................ 57 94 56 93 / 10 10 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 89 57 88 / 10 10 5 30 Clayton......................... 70 98 68 95 / 5 5 5 5 Roy............................. 63 93 62 91 / 5 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 72 101 70 99 / 5 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 67 96 66 95 / 5 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 73 101 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 70 100 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 70 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 100 69 99 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 65 97 64 95 / 0 5 5 10 Elk............................. 61 95 62 93 / 0 10 5 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.