textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly over central, western, and northern areas.

- A high risk of flash flooding is forecast on the Ruidoso burn scars Saturday afternoon. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Low and mid level clouds have been lingering across western and central NM this morning due to a plume of monsoon moisture overhead between a unseasonably deep upper low over the Pacific NW and a broad upper high over the south central U.S. PWATs under the plume are 0.8 to 1 inch across western NM and 1 to 1.4 inches across central and eastern NM with the highest PWATS across south central NM. The widespread cloud cover across western and much of central NM this morning should result in cooler afternoon temperatures, less intense thunderstorm activity, and thus lower rainfall rates this afternoon despite part of these areas of the state being under a slight risk for excessive rainfall. More isolated activity is expected across the eastern plains this afternoon, but will be more capable of producing locally heavy rainfall due to clearer skies this morning and hotter temperatures in the mid to upper 90s resulting in more instability this afternoon. Any shower and thunderstorm activity should taper off around to just after sunset.

On Saturday, the broad upper high over the south central U.S. looks to somewhat consolidate into a 593 dam high at 500 mb from Missouri southwest to El Paso. Showers and thunderstorms will favor the southern and central mountain ranges, but with the upper high overhead storm motion will be more slow and erratic especially across the Sacramento Mountains. Storms will get going across these mountain ranges by the late morning hours Saturday peaking mid afternoon before moving into the nearby lower elevations and tapering off mid to late evening. With both the HREF and RRFS showing 3 hour rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches over the Ruidoso burn scars between 12 PM to 3 PM due to slow and erratic storm motion have opted to issue a Flood Watch for the area. Like today, showers and storms will taper off around to just after sunset.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A 593 to 594 dam upper high at 500 mb will be centered over the OK and TX panhandles with the western portion nosing in eastern NM Sunday. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will once again get going across the western and central high terrain midday with an overall storm motion north-northwest south of I-40 and north-northeast along and north of I-40. Storm motion across the Sacramento Mountains Sunday afternoon should help direct storms west and away from the Ruidoso burn scars. Once again, any storm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in low lying, poor drainage, and urban areas.

The upper low over the Pacific NW finally moves inland to over the northern Rockies Monday shifting the upper high east to over Oklahoma, Missouri and western Arkansas. The position of these two upper level features will help position the monsoon plume from southwest to northeast NM with an overall storm motion to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph. The upper low exits northeast to the Dakotas and central Canada Tuesday flattening the upper high from eastern NM to the mid Atlantic and strengthening to 597 dam over the mid Mississippi River Valley. The monsoon plume and thus better shower and storm coverage will remain across western and central NM due to this part of the state remaining on the western flank of the upper high circulation. The upper high looks to shift back to over New Mexico as early as Wednesday. This will help disrupt the monsoon plume with recycled moisture helping to keep diurnal shower and storm chances across the higher terrain. PWATS looks to decrease from 0.9 to 1.3 inches Monday to 0.8 to 1 inch late next week due to the upper high moving overhead. Highs next week will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower elevations of western and central NM and mid to upper 90s across eastern NM which is slightly above average for early to mid September

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TS will move north/northeast across the airspace thru 10PM with outflow wind gusts up to 35KT and brief heavy rain as the main impacts. Mid level cigs will persist thru the predawn hours followed by clearing thereafter. A more robust crop of SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain btwn 12PM and 2PM Saturday then move northward into nearby lowlands thru late Saturday. Eastern NM will also see isolated SHRA/TS Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of western and central NM and nearby lower elevations through late next week. Coverage looks to be highest through Monday due to a plume of monsoon moisture overhead. Storm coverage across these areas gradually lowers mid to late next week as the upper high over the south central U.S. looks to shift west to over the state. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 88 60 89 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 84 46 89 / 10 5 0 10 Cuba............................ 55 85 56 86 / 20 5 0 5 Gallup.......................... 53 83 54 87 / 10 0 5 10 El Morro........................ 52 80 54 83 / 40 10 20 40 Grants.......................... 55 82 57 86 / 50 5 10 30 Quemado......................... 55 80 56 84 / 30 30 20 70 Magdalena....................... 59 81 61 84 / 40 30 20 30 Datil........................... 55 79 57 81 / 50 50 40 60 Reserve......................... 54 84 55 90 / 30 30 20 40 Glenwood........................ 57 88 61 96 / 20 10 20 20 Chama........................... 49 78 51 82 / 10 20 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 61 82 62 84 / 30 30 10 10 Pecos........................... 58 82 58 85 / 30 20 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 81 56 83 / 10 30 10 10 Red River....................... 47 71 48 74 / 10 40 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 42 76 41 79 / 20 50 10 50 Taos............................ 54 84 54 87 / 10 20 5 10 Mora............................ 54 80 54 82 / 20 60 10 60 Espanola........................ 61 87 61 91 / 20 20 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 61 84 63 86 / 20 10 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 87 61 89 / 30 5 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 88 69 93 / 20 0 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 89 66 93 / 20 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 91 66 95 / 20 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 89 68 94 / 20 0 5 10 Belen........................... 63 91 64 94 / 30 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 91 67 95 / 30 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 62 91 64 94 / 30 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 66 90 67 95 / 20 0 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 63 91 65 94 / 30 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 65 89 67 91 / 30 0 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 66 89 67 94 / 20 0 10 10 Socorro......................... 67 91 69 95 / 30 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 83 62 87 / 30 5 10 40 Tijeras......................... 61 86 63 87 / 30 5 5 40 Edgewood........................ 57 85 59 88 / 30 10 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 86 57 89 / 30 10 10 40 Clines Corners.................. 58 85 59 86 / 30 20 10 30 Mountainair..................... 57 85 59 87 / 30 10 10 40 Gran Quivira.................... 58 86 60 87 / 20 20 10 40 Carrizozo....................... 63 86 64 89 / 20 40 10 60 Ruidoso......................... 57 81 58 82 / 20 80 10 70 Capulin......................... 59 86 58 86 / 20 30 20 30 Raton........................... 56 89 56 89 / 20 40 10 20 Springer........................ 57 92 57 91 / 20 30 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 57 85 57 86 / 20 20 10 40 Clayton......................... 67 95 66 93 / 20 30 30 5 Roy............................. 61 90 61 89 / 20 30 30 10 Conchas......................... 67 99 68 97 / 20 10 30 10 Santa Rosa...................... 65 94 66 92 / 20 10 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 69 100 70 97 / 20 10 30 10 Clovis.......................... 68 97 68 96 / 20 20 20 5 Portales........................ 68 98 69 97 / 20 20 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 67 97 69 97 / 20 10 10 5 Roswell......................... 69 101 70 98 / 20 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 62 91 62 92 / 20 50 10 10 Elk............................. 59 87 59 89 / 10 50 10 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NMZ226.