textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 508 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM Saturday morning.

- Widespread, soaking rainfall looks increasingly likely Wednesday through Friday. A few storms may become strong to severe and localized heavy rainfall will increase the risk flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

It will be the chillest morning of the season thus far in most areas, with crisp and cool conditions. For many areas it will be the first freeze of the Fall, although plenty of locations will remain just above the freezing mark, pushing back the first freeze potentially a week or more in some cases. Diurnal temperature changes today will range from 30 to as much as 40 degrees. Despite this, highs will still generally be a few degrees below seasonal averages. High clouds will spread in from the southwest throughout the day. This along with veering flow will slowly draw a warmer and more moist airmass into the area. Low temperatures Saturday night will not be as cold tonight as a result, with freezing temperatures generally confined to mountain valleys and basins. Nonetheless, it will still be a chilly night with lows in the 30s in most locales.

The closed Low currently hanging out off the California Coast will open and eject inland Saturday into Sunday, pushing moisture northward into New Mexico. Large-scale ascent will overlap with this precipitation in western NM where rain showers are likely Sunday. Modest destabilization could spark a storm or two, but coverage/intensity will be very limited and rainfall amounts should remain below a quarter inch in all areas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The open wave should be located in the vicinity of the Four Corners on Monday, with southwest flow continuing to draw more Pacific moisture into New Mexico. Showers and a few storms will spread eastward into central NM Monday, persisting through Tuesday. Guidance is in good agreement that a deep trough will dig southward off the coast of California Tuesday, with a broad area of south to southwest flow prevailing over much of the Intermountain West. This will push deeper pacific moisture into the southwest, with PWATs rising well over 200% of normal by Wednesday.

All things considered, model agreement with regard to the depth/speed of this approaching trough is quite good through Wednesday, with increasing uncertainty late week as it ejects inland into the desert southwest. The GEFS ensemble mean favors a more progressive, positively tilted trough, while the GEPS and ENS means show a deeper, slower-moving trough. The latter solutions would be wetter for New Mexico, although all solutions suggest widespread precipitation across central and northern NM Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation amounts from the NBM have trended higher, with 50th percentile amounts for the 48-hour period stretching from Wednesday morning through Friday morning now showing 0.5-1.5" in most areas, with higher amounts in the northern mountains. 90th percentile amounts for the same period show 2-3" across almost all of central and northern NM, suggesting the potential for an isolated flash flood threat where heavier storms develop. New Mexico will remain in the warm sector for much of this storm so snow levels will be too high for snow outside of mountain peaks. Another hazard to monitor with this upcoming storm system is the severe threat given the strong vertical wind shear provided by the incoming trough. Instability will be the limiting factor, with the LREF mean showing only 200-300 J/kg of sfc based CAPE in central and southern areas.

Model disagreement is high by the weekend, with solutions highly dependent on exactly how the longwave trough exits the Intermountain West. That being said, drier air is likely to intrude from the west with decreasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light today, except for a light afternoon breeze in southwest and northeast areas. High clouds will increase in coverage from the southwest throughout the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next 7 days. Dry weather prevails today, with a light afternoon breeze in the southwest and northeast. Moisture will increase from the southwest this weekend, with light showers (and potentially an isolated storm) across western NM Sunday and western and central NM Monday. Rain chances become more widespread mid-week as a longwave trough move into the desert southwest. Warmer temperatures will actually accompany this wetter trend as a warm, Pacific airmass is pushed into the area. Confidence is increasing for widespread soaking rainfall Wednesday through Friday.

Ventilation will generally be poor the next several days, outside of pockets of fair to good ventilation early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 40 63 46 / 0 0 10 20 Dulce........................... 67 32 64 34 / 0 0 10 20 Cuba............................ 62 38 61 42 / 0 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 65 36 64 40 / 0 5 20 20 El Morro........................ 61 36 64 40 / 0 5 20 30 Grants.......................... 60 33 65 41 / 0 0 20 30 Quemado......................... 64 35 67 40 / 0 10 30 20 Magdalena....................... 57 38 63 44 / 0 0 10 5 Datil........................... 58 34 63 41 / 0 5 20 20 Reserve......................... 68 37 69 41 / 0 5 20 20 Glenwood........................ 69 43 71 46 / 0 5 20 30 Chama........................... 61 37 60 39 / 0 0 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 61 42 61 44 / 0 0 5 5 Pecos........................... 64 37 65 41 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 63 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 57 26 57 33 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 62 16 62 25 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 63 26 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 64 31 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 34 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 32 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 41 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 41 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 64 36 68 43 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 36 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 67 40 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 65 37 68 43 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 65 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 42 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 40 69 46 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 36 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 38 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 62 32 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 26 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 31 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 60 33 63 41 / 0 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 33 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 35 64 46 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 57 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 63 33 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 66 28 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 27 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 67 39 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 61 33 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 66 38 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 36 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 37 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 63 36 68 43 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 63 34 68 42 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 61 34 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 35 68 44 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 60 35 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 60 35 70 44 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ201-217>220- 223>225-228-230>241.