textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Along and east of the central mountain chain, storms will be capable of turning severe with large hail and damaging winds each afternoon and evening through Thursday.

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms over northeast and east central areas through Thursday.

- Record and near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-related illnesses each afternoon for the remainder of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today, more-so Wednesday, then remain quite active through Thursday evening as disturbances clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft. The center of the ~ 597 DAM high pressure system that has been setting daily maximum 500 mb height records over the state will also drift gradually more southwestward reaching NM's southwest border with AZ by Wednesday and remaining there Thursday. This will enable Gulf moisture to continue increasing on the eastern plains through Wednesday behind moist backdoor fronts aided by thunderstorm outflows. As a result, the central mountain chain eastward will be the favored location for showers and thunderstorms each day through midweek. Many places west of the central mountain chain will also see an increase in storm coverage during the Wednesday/Thursday period as thunderstorm outflows spread Gulf moisture there. Each afternoon and evening increased shear with the disturbances in northwest flow aloft will enable some storms along and east of the central mountain chain to turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Further, PWATS near and above 1.20" over eastern areas today, near and above 1.30" Wednesday, and near and above 1.10" Thursday will enable some showers and storms along and east of the central mountain chain to produce locally heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening. NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates the three day total rain accumulation will reach over 3" in a few spots from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, and over 2" on parts of the east central plains, with a risk of localized flash flooding.

With the high pressure system overhead, high temperatures will continue to climb around 5 to 12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon; except for only a few degrees above average over east central and northeast areas Wednesday and Thursday. These will equate to record and near-record readings mainly over southern areas today, then over central and western areas Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity will trend downward Friday afternoon and evening as the amplitude of the upper high decreases and an east-to-west ridge axis develops allowing drier air to move over western and northern parts of the state. Storm coverage will then increase over central and western areas Saturday, and especially Sunday, as the upper high drifts eastward toward the lower Mississippi River valley, enabling a more traditional plume of monsoon moisture to set up. Models vary on how well the monsoon plume will remain over the forecast area on Monday, depending on how deeply an upper level trough digs over the west coast.

Otherwise, record and near-record high temperatures are forecast to continue through the end of this week. Temperatures will trend closer to average early next week over western areas with the arrival of the monsoon moisture plume, while eastern readings climb around 10 degrees above average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the late night hours. On Tuesday, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to western areas, and along and east of the continental divide, except for numerous cells along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and across the east central plains. Hi res models depict clusters and lines of storms marching across northeast and east central areas, which may require significant alteration of flight routes to get around. Some storms will probably turn severe over northeast and east central areas by producing large hail and damaging winds. Farther west, a few of the stronger storms and virga showers will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storm motion on Tuesday afternoon and evening will generally be toward the northeast and east around 5-15 KT, except along and east of the central mountain chain where most storms should move toward the east and southeast around 10-25 KT. Finally, record and near- record high temperatures will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Pockets of critically low minimum humidity will favor central and northwest areas today and Wednesday, then northwest areas during the latter half of the week. Gulf moisture will continue to increase over eastern areas today, then to a lesser extent central and west Wednesday and Thursday with the help of thunderstorm outflows from the eastern storms. Some locally strong gap winds will be possible below canyons opening into the central valley from the east each evening today through Thursday. Until better Gulf moisture arrives, wetting footprints should continue to be pretty small west of the Rio Grande today, and west of the continental divide each day through the end of the work week. Besides the risk of new fire starts over western areas, the main fire weather concern for the remainder of this week will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 90 50 91 50 / 10 10 20 10 Cuba............................ 90 59 90 58 / 20 10 20 30 Gallup.......................... 91 55 91 55 / 10 10 20 10 El Morro........................ 87 57 87 55 / 20 20 30 20 Grants.......................... 91 56 90 57 / 20 10 40 20 Quemado......................... 88 58 89 58 / 20 10 30 10 Magdalena....................... 90 64 89 63 / 10 10 30 30 Datil........................... 87 59 87 59 / 20 10 30 20 Reserve......................... 95 59 96 59 / 10 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 98 64 100 64 / 10 5 20 5 Chama........................... 84 50 83 50 / 30 10 40 20 Los Alamos...................... 87 63 84 59 / 40 10 60 60 Pecos........................... 90 58 87 55 / 20 10 50 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 54 83 53 / 40 30 60 50 Red River....................... 75 46 73 45 / 40 40 70 50 Angel Fire...................... 82 39 77 39 / 30 30 80 50 Taos............................ 89 53 86 51 / 20 20 50 40 Mora............................ 85 53 81 51 / 40 20 80 70 Espanola........................ 94 62 93 60 / 20 10 40 50 Santa Fe........................ 90 62 87 60 / 10 10 40 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 60 90 58 / 10 10 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 67 94 65 / 10 5 20 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 69 95 67 / 10 5 20 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 67 97 65 / 10 5 20 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 68 96 66 / 10 10 20 50 Belen........................... 100 67 97 64 / 10 5 20 50 Bernalillo...................... 98 68 97 66 / 10 10 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 99 65 97 63 / 10 5 20 50 Corrales........................ 99 68 97 66 / 10 10 20 50 Los Lunas....................... 99 66 97 64 / 10 5 20 50 Placitas........................ 94 66 92 63 / 10 10 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 97 68 96 66 / 10 10 20 50 Socorro......................... 101 70 99 68 / 5 5 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 61 90 59 / 10 10 20 60 Tijeras......................... 92 63 91 61 / 10 5 20 50 Edgewood........................ 92 60 91 57 / 10 10 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 58 91 54 / 10 10 30 60 Clines Corners.................. 90 58 86 56 / 10 10 50 60 Mountainair..................... 93 60 91 57 / 10 10 20 50 Gran Quivira.................... 92 60 91 58 / 10 10 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 96 68 95 65 / 5 5 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 89 60 85 58 / 20 5 50 20 Capulin......................... 87 54 81 53 / 60 50 80 60 Raton........................... 90 54 84 53 / 50 50 80 60 Springer........................ 92 54 86 53 / 40 30 80 60 Las Vegas....................... 89 56 84 54 / 30 20 80 60 Clayton......................... 94 61 86 60 / 60 50 30 60 Roy............................. 92 59 86 58 / 50 50 60 60 Conchas......................... 99 65 93 64 / 30 40 40 60 Santa Rosa...................... 98 64 91 62 / 20 20 30 60 Tucumcari....................... 101 65 93 64 / 20 50 20 60 Clovis.......................... 100 66 95 65 / 20 30 30 60 Portales........................ 102 67 97 65 / 20 20 20 60 Fort Sumner..................... 101 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 70 Roswell......................... 105 71 100 69 / 10 5 10 30 Picacho......................... 98 65 95 63 / 10 5 20 40 Elk............................. 95 63 92 60 / 10 5 40 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.