textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain today, as well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

GOES WV imagery shows a notably well defined closed H5 low spinning northward along the NM/AZ border this hour, continuing to yield sporadic shower activity through the western half of NM. There's a few isolated thunderstorms producing sporadic lightning as well. Much of this activity will linger well into the early morning hours, dwindling in coverage at the same time. Although, will need to keep a close eye on a cluster of storms currently moving northward along the Sacramento Mts toward the Ruidoso area b/w the 2a - 3a timeframe. The closed low looks to open its circulation as it progresses northward along the UT/CO border today. A healthy tap of monsoonal moisture will follow this upper low northward into western NM, aided by the northerly flow along the western periphery of the monsoon high centered over northern TX. PWs reaching upwards of 1.20" to 1.40" or 2-3 std devs above normal, coupled with 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE will allow for healthy rain production from convective activity developing along the western high terrain and along the Continental Divide. Observed rainfall amounts of 1 to 2+ inches seen Tuesday, notably over Gallup and Zuni have already semi- impermeable ground conditions gulched and susceptible to flash flooding from any further thunderstorm activity. One uncertainty will be any morning cloud cover that would limit surface heating. Nevertheless, convective initiation is expected near the noon hour with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of localized rain rates of 1+ in/hr tracking northward toward CO across the western third of the state with lowering precipitation chances heading eastward toward the central and northeast highlands. Will go ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch for these areas along and west of the Continental Divide today. Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area burn scars remains on track for the threat of storms developing along the ridgeline and near or over the burn scars with potential for updrafts anchoring over the same spot.

Thursday sees what's left of the open low as an upper trough along the northern periphery of the monsoon high which is forecast to move squarely over NM by this point. Moisture recycling in the form of afternoon convection will again favor development over the western and northern mountains. Steering flow will be weak yielding the threat of slow but shorter lived storms producing smaller wetting footprints. Storms further north moving eastward off the Front Range in CO will have better shear to work with and will be stronger in nature. This convection will send down an outflow enhanced front southward into northeastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Friday begins the long term with low-level moisture likely replenished along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain from the aforementioned cold front. With the monsoon high still squarely over the state, and staying there thru the weekend, this will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity recycling moisture each day with better chances for areas along and immediately east of the central mountain chain relative to recent days. High temperatures also climb back into the upper 90s to low 100s for lower elevation areas, resulting in widespread moderate to high heat risk.

The monsoon high looks to have little movement heading into early next week, favoring a nudge eastward. This will allow for a slight uptick in monsoon moisture from the Gulf of CA into the Desert Southwest continuing daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An upper low continues to progress northward toward the Four Corners region and over Navajo Nation this hour. Sporadic showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will remain over portions of western NM past midnight into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Otherwise, looking for another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over the high terrain of central and western NM near 18Z Wednesday. Storm motions will be northward spreading over surrounding lower elevations. PROB30s and TEMPOs are included at central and western TAF sites with localized IFR/MVFR accompanying any passing shower or thunderstorm lasting late into Wednesday evening before clearing conditions begin to arrive.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain today, spreading to more areas along the highlands immediately east of the central mountain chain and portions of the eastern plains late week, weekend, and into next week. The monsoon high sets up shop over the state Thursday and beyond as well, increasing high temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s for lower elevation areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 88 65 91 65 / 40 60 10 5 Dulce........................... 85 54 86 53 / 60 60 50 20 Cuba............................ 85 59 86 60 / 30 40 30 30 Gallup.......................... 83 60 88 59 / 70 50 20 20 El Morro........................ 79 57 83 59 / 80 40 20 10 Grants.......................... 83 58 86 59 / 80 40 40 20 Quemado......................... 81 58 85 60 / 70 30 40 20 Magdalena....................... 84 64 87 66 / 30 10 30 10 Datil........................... 79 59 84 60 / 70 30 30 10 Reserve......................... 85 57 90 59 / 50 20 20 10 Glenwood........................ 90 60 95 63 / 40 20 5 0 Chama........................... 79 53 79 52 / 60 60 60 30 Los Alamos...................... 84 64 84 64 / 20 30 40 30 Pecos........................... 86 58 88 60 / 30 30 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 58 83 57 / 20 30 40 40 Red River....................... 75 50 74 50 / 30 20 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 81 48 80 48 / 60 30 20 20 Taos............................ 87 58 88 57 / 20 30 30 30 Mora............................ 83 56 85 57 / 30 20 10 10 Espanola........................ 92 66 92 65 / 10 20 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 87 64 87 64 / 20 30 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 62 90 62 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 68 93 68 / 30 20 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 70 94 71 / 20 20 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 67 96 68 / 10 20 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 69 95 70 / 10 20 10 30 Belen........................... 94 67 97 68 / 10 10 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 92 68 95 69 / 20 20 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 93 65 95 66 / 10 10 5 30 Corrales........................ 92 68 96 69 / 20 20 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 93 65 95 67 / 10 10 5 20 Placitas........................ 87 67 91 68 / 40 30 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 92 68 94 69 / 20 20 10 30 Socorro......................... 93 70 99 72 / 10 5 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 62 88 64 / 40 30 5 20 Tijeras......................... 86 63 89 64 / 40 30 0 20 Edgewood........................ 87 60 90 61 / 30 20 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 59 92 57 / 20 20 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 85 59 88 60 / 20 10 0 10 Mountainair..................... 88 61 91 62 / 20 10 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 86 61 89 62 / 10 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 88 67 92 68 / 50 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 83 62 87 63 / 60 20 20 0 Capulin......................... 87 60 88 57 / 5 10 30 60 Raton........................... 93 59 93 58 / 10 10 40 50 Springer........................ 94 62 94 59 / 10 10 20 40 Las Vegas....................... 87 59 89 59 / 10 10 5 10 Clayton......................... 98 68 99 66 / 5 5 10 50 Roy............................. 91 65 94 63 / 5 5 5 20 Conchas......................... 99 69 101 70 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 95 67 97 68 / 0 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 102 72 104 73 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 100 70 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 101 71 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 100 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 102 72 105 73 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 93 66 97 68 / 20 5 0 0 Elk............................. 88 62 92 64 / 20 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ201>208.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for NMZ226.