textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of western and central New Mexico Monday and Tuesday will lead to strong and erratic downburst winds, dry lightning, and a risk of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in an increasing risk for rapid fire spread each afternoon through Tuesday across far western New Mexico and across northeast New Mexico on Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico Tuesday could producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An onslaught of the typical June hazards is in store for the area over the next few days, including; heat, downburst wind gusts, blowing dust, dry lightning strikes, a few strong storms, and fire weather.

An upper level trough approaching from the west coast will spread much drier air and westerly breezes over NM today. Downslope flow into eastern NM will trend max temps 10 to 15F warmer than recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to low 100s over eastern NM with widespread 80s and 90s over central and western NM. Cirrus will increase over the area today so expect periods of filtered sunshine. A couple virga showers cannot be ruled out today around the southwest high terrain where mid level moisture begins sneaking north ahead of the approaching trough. Temps tonight will be mild with many areas staying 5 to 10F above normal.

A 55 to 65kt upper level jet then spreads across the region Monday as the upper level trough enters the Great Basin. Increasing lift beneath the upper jet along with improving mid level moisture and strong heating will help to develop scattered high-based showers and isolated dry storms along the Cont Divide Monday afternoon. Bulk shear of 30 to 40kt with lifted indices near -2C, MUCAPE near 200 J/kg, and DCAPE up to 1200 J/kg support downburst wind gusts. The latest HREF shows ensemble max gusts of 50 to 60 mph impacting west-central NM Monday afternoon before surging east into the RGV during the evening. Areas of blowing dust may also impact the region as western NM remains the driest part of the state. A couple small areas of wetting rainfall (>0.10") are also possible from some of this activity as PWATs will be increasing to near 0.70" with mid level moisture advection continuing thru the day.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Any dry lightning strikes over western NM Monday will be confronted with single digit humidity and breezy southwest winds on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper level jet dynamics and mid level moisture plume will shift into eastern NM. Moist low level return flow over east- central and southeast NM Tuesday will help to improve chances for showers and storms with larger footprints of wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes may still occur on the western periphery of the precip shield as drier air works in from western NM. A couple strong storms cannot be ruled out as well over eastern NM given the better shear profiles and greater instability.

Southwest to west winds will become breezy over eastern NM on Wednesday which will elevate the risk for fire starts in areas where grasses are still very dry. Max temps will be hot again over eastern NM Wednesday with many areas topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s.

By Thursday, another upper level trough will race east across the northern Rockies while a 590dm H5 ridge becomes more well-defined over TX and northern MX. Models are coming into better agreement showing a strong backdoor cold front entering eastern NM but the timing is still out of sorts. Overall, a more tranquil day is expected with hot temps, low humidity, and relatively lighter winds. If the backdoor cold front arrives faster than currently shown, eastern NM will see breezy northeast winds and cooling temps by Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Sunday will feature a more typical look for mid June as the upper level high begins drifting west/northwest into southern NM and AZ. Low and mid level moisture is shown spreading northwest into the southwest CONUS which kicks off daily rounds of showers and storms. For now, the greater precip chances will be focused over southern and eastern NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Stronger northwest winds near 2,000 ft AGL early this morning are resulting in LLWS but not quite strong enough to include in area terminal forecasts. High clouds will spread from west to east over the area today along with isolated virga showers and erratic winds across western NM after 3pm. Mid level cigs will gradually taper off in the evening with lighter winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A dry upper level trough approaching from the west today will spread single digit minimum humidity across much of NM. Breezy west winds along and north of the I-40 corridor will generate a few hours of elevated critical fire weather. Temps will also be hot with mixing heights averaging 15 to 16kft.

Breezy southwest winds will develop Monday with more single digit humidity in many areas. Just enough mid level moisture will slide into the area ahead of the upper trough to develop scattered virga showers and isolated dry storms over western NM. Any strikes that do occur Monday will be problematic as winds are trending stronger for Tuesday with critical fire weather likely along and west of the Cont Divide. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued. Scattered showers and wet/dry storms will focus over central and eastern NM on Tuesday. Dry storm coverage may even be scattered with LAL 6 potential for the western periphery of the precip. The risk of more fire starts will remain a concern since southwest winds have also trended stronger on Wednesday with even more widespread single digit humidity. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for parts of the area Wednesday.

Upper level high pressure will develop over northern MX by Thursday while a moist backdoor cold front slides into eastern NM. The upper level high drifts west and northwest toward southern AZ Friday thru the weekend with low level moisture increasing into NM. This may lead to increasing chances for showers and storms over parts of the region over the weekend but model agreement on precip coverage is poor.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 91 57 93 56 / 0 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 86 47 88 47 / 0 0 10 30 Cuba............................ 85 53 86 54 / 0 0 10 30 Gallup.......................... 85 47 87 48 / 0 0 5 5 El Morro........................ 82 51 84 52 / 0 0 10 10 Grants.......................... 87 51 88 52 / 0 0 20 20 Quemado......................... 84 52 86 53 / 0 0 10 20 Magdalena....................... 86 59 86 61 / 0 0 10 5 Datil........................... 83 53 83 56 / 0 0 10 10 Reserve......................... 89 48 91 49 / 0 0 10 5 Glenwood........................ 93 50 96 52 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 79 45 81 46 / 0 0 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 84 60 85 60 / 0 0 10 20 Pecos........................... 85 53 87 54 / 0 0 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 51 83 52 / 0 0 10 10 Red River....................... 74 44 75 44 / 0 0 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 78 40 79 41 / 0 0 10 10 Taos............................ 86 52 87 53 / 0 0 10 10 Mora............................ 83 51 85 52 / 0 0 10 10 Espanola........................ 92 57 93 58 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 86 57 87 58 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 56 90 58 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 66 93 66 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 65 94 65 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 63 96 62 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 63 94 63 / 0 0 10 10 Belen........................... 96 61 96 61 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 95 62 95 62 / 0 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 96 59 95 59 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 96 62 96 62 / 0 0 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 96 58 95 58 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 91 64 91 64 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 95 63 95 63 / 0 0 10 10 Socorro......................... 97 66 98 67 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 59 88 59 / 0 0 10 5 Tijeras......................... 88 60 89 60 / 0 0 10 5 Edgewood........................ 89 58 90 58 / 0 0 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 51 91 52 / 0 0 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 85 56 87 57 / 0 0 10 10 Mountainair..................... 88 57 90 58 / 0 0 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 57 89 58 / 0 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 91 64 93 64 / 0 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 83 57 85 58 / 0 0 10 0 Capulin......................... 87 53 89 53 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 91 51 92 52 / 0 0 10 10 Springer........................ 92 52 93 53 / 0 0 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 87 53 88 54 / 0 0 10 10 Clayton......................... 93 62 96 62 / 5 0 0 5 Roy............................. 91 57 92 59 / 0 0 10 10 Conchas......................... 100 60 101 65 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 96 62 98 63 / 0 0 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 100 64 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 97 64 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 98 65 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 99 63 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 102 65 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 93 62 94 61 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 90 59 91 59 / 0 0 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ101-105.