textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues today with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico.

- Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust this afternoon.

- Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A windy day is coming to fruition over northern and central New Mexico today, as an upper low has rounded UT and is now starting to lift into CO as a shortwave. This morning's 12Z model runs had lower initial condition wind speeds at 700 mb, but it should be noted there is a dearth of 1200UTC raobs to assimilate nowadays. Regardless, speeds of 30-45 kt were modeled this morning, and these will reduce slightly with the speed max transitioning farther northeast through the afternoon. Gusts have already exceeded 50 mph at Las Vegas, NM and more sites will join soon. Blowing dust is still a concern, and we will be monitoring the need for any Blowing Dust Advisories through the afternoon. Shower activity was been scant, with radar echoes largely staying north of our northern zones, and our window of opportunity for precip today has passed.

Winds will start to decouple in western and central NM this evening, but the backdoor cold front will send rapid pressure rises into northeastern NM, as the backdoor front plunges in. The front will spill down all of the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing gusty northerly winds, and higher dewpoints. The front is now modeled to advance farther west by some higher resolution models, spilling into the Rio Grande shortly after dawn, and this would invoke a gusty gap/canyon wind at vulnerable locations such as the Glorieta Pass and eastern ABQ. Winds have been increased here accordingly.

Through the afternoon Tuesday, winds in the eastern NM plains will veer southerly while a large swath of convection breaks out over TX where the front will meet the rich Gulf moisture. Another upper level trough will move into UT, essentially phasing with pressure falls east of the Baja peninsula and creating a sharper trough upstream of us than what was modeled just a couple days ago. This will keep relatively strong southwesterlies aloft (15-25 kt at 700 mb) feeding over NM and it will also help draw the easterly wind into areas like Santa Fe and Albuquerque during the morning. This alignment will also place a north-south oriented corridor of stronger winds over central NM near the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. There also is sufficient mid level moisture modeled to yield high-based cumulus and virga over north central zones Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will run several degrees cooler (and 10 to 15 degrees below normal) in eastern zones Tuesday afternoon while western and central zones warm closer to seasonal averages.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the central and south central plains early Wednesday with a synoptic east southeasterly surface flow becoming established into west TX and eastern NM. Very high dewpoints will be pooling in southern and eastern TX, moderating some as the moist air infiltrates the higher plains in our eastern zones. Widespread low stratus clouds would likely accompany this moist easterly push along with drizzle and sprinkles Wednesday morning. True to form, the NAM continues to be more aggressive, bringing the moisture and easterly winds all the way westward to the Rio Grande while other synoptic models keep it over the eastern plains. In fact, the NAM/RRFS are so persistent with the easterly surface flow well into the afternoon, that it keeps the low stratus entrenched over much of eastern NM and does not allow the boundary layer to destabilize or exploit the newfound moisture for convection. In contrast, the GFS and other synoptic members mix the moisture eastward, allowing a sharp dewpoint gradient and dryline to form over the eastern counties where destabilization and convective initiation would ensue Wednesday afternoon. The NBM offers a good blend to the dewpoint extremes, but produces an artificially soft gradient that will not likely be representative of reality: a much sharper north-south oriented dryline. Have tried to steer the forecast dewpoints/POPs/Sky towards a more realistic conceptual model, but this will be tricky to pinpoint the placement of the dryline and any subsequent storms. The NBM plastered very high POPs across many eastern zones, and this was tempered and lowered.

Through Thursday, two upper level features are becoming more discretely apparent, the residual weak trough over the upper Baja peninsula and another shortwave trough dropping into the central Rockies. These look to stay far enough away to not pose much impact to NM weather, and Thursday's forecast will hinge on low layer moisture and how far west it sloshes during the early morning before mixing back out eastward into the afternoon. The latest consensus is carrying the moisture (40's - 50's dewpoints) farther east and closer to the eastern NM and west TX border. This will of course reduce chances for deep, moist convection with a smaller subset of eastern counties observing isolated to scattered cells. The central Rockies trough would then seem to drag drier westerly flow into eastern NM going into Friday, but there is the potential for another backdoor cold front to disrupt this, keeping quite a bit of uncertainty in the dewpoint/POP forecast for Friday. Should a good frontal intrusion occur, moisture would linger over eastern zones into Friday night and Saturday with veering winds reintroducing the prospects for deep, moist convection and perhaps a few strong to severe storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Winds will pose the primary aviation weather hazard through this evening along with areas of reduced visibility in blowing dust. Southwest gusts of 35 to 45 kt will be common this afternoon with the highest gusts concentrated over the central to northeast highlands (KCQC, KLVS, KRTN, and KCAO). Visibility reductions are generally forecast to stay within a MVFR range (3 to 5 SM), but a few localized lower reductions cannot be ruled out in dust prone areas or near recently plowed fields. A fast-moving cold front will sweep into the eastern half of New Mexico tonight, causing winds to shift in direction with northerly gusts of 25 to 40 kt accompanying. These winds will eventually turn and spill into KABQ and KSAF shortly after dawn Tuesday, gradually decreasing by noon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A fire weather growing pattern is underway with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions today. As forecast, the strongest winds have been focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts are reaching 55 to 60 mph. Many areas are also already observing less than 10% RH. Winds will start to abate in western and central zones after sunset, and while winds will stay gusty in northeastern areas, they will be shifting northerly with higher dewpoints (and rising RH) as a cool, moist backdoor front arrives.

Winds in the plains will veer in direction, turning south through the day Tuesday with breezy speeds persisting. It is also still forecast to be breezy in western zones Tuesday, and this will lead to a convergence zone over central NM with southwesterlies and southeasterlies meeting over the Rio Grande and central mountain chain where wind speeds will be enhanced (gusts of 30 to 35 mph). This centralized area of enhanced winds will introduce a couple to a few hours of marginal to spotty critical conditions Tuesday afternoon, namely in the lower Rio Grande valley. Both the spatial coverage and duration of these critical conditions were not widespread or long enough to justify doing a Fire Weather Watch for FWZ106, but if forecast wind speeds increase a bit more this could quickly change.

Some breeziness will redevelop in similar areas on Wednesday, once again leading to localized critical fire weather conditions in the lower Rio Grande valley, but gusts appear to be slightly lower than what is forecast on Tuesday. The long duration wind threat reduces more into Thursday and the remainder of the work week, as weak and ill-defined upper level features become established and reduce wind fields aloft. This will keep wind concerns confined to thunderstorm outflows in eastern NM and occasionally in central gaps/canyons when moisture intrudes from the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 39 75 43 77 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 30 71 37 73 / 0 10 10 10 Cuba............................ 38 72 42 74 / 0 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 34 74 37 74 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 73 41 71 / 0 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 37 78 40 77 / 0 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 40 75 43 74 / 0 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 38 77 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 65 36 65 / 0 10 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 46 71 50 71 / 0 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 40 69 43 69 / 0 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 67 42 68 / 0 10 20 40 Red River....................... 31 60 33 61 / 0 10 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 23 64 32 64 / 0 20 20 60 Taos............................ 34 72 42 72 / 0 10 20 30 Mora............................ 36 65 41 66 / 0 10 20 60 Espanola........................ 43 78 46 78 / 0 10 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 45 73 48 73 / 0 10 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 77 46 78 / 0 10 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 80 54 80 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 81 55 82 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 83 49 84 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 81 53 83 / 0 10 5 5 Belen........................... 49 85 50 86 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 82 52 82 / 0 10 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 46 84 48 84 / 0 10 5 5 Corrales........................ 49 82 52 83 / 0 10 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 48 84 49 84 / 0 10 5 5 Placitas........................ 49 79 52 79 / 0 10 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 81 53 81 / 0 10 5 10 Socorro......................... 52 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 75 49 74 / 0 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 46 77 49 77 / 0 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 42 76 46 76 / 0 10 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 78 41 77 / 0 10 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 42 71 44 68 / 0 5 20 40 Mountainair..................... 44 77 46 78 / 0 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 46 77 47 77 / 0 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 79 53 79 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 44 73 44 72 / 0 0 10 20 Capulin......................... 33 61 38 57 / 0 0 30 40 Raton........................... 36 66 42 63 / 0 0 40 60 Springer........................ 39 69 43 65 / 0 0 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 39 66 43 64 / 0 0 30 50 Clayton......................... 39 66 43 60 / 0 0 30 50 Roy............................. 41 68 44 62 / 0 0 30 40 Conchas......................... 47 76 49 68 / 0 0 30 50 Santa Rosa...................... 45 76 48 67 / 0 0 30 50 Tucumcari....................... 48 78 50 70 / 0 0 30 50 Clovis.......................... 47 78 51 68 / 0 0 30 70 Portales........................ 49 81 51 71 / 0 0 30 70 Fort Sumner..................... 48 81 51 70 / 0 0 30 50 Roswell......................... 56 86 57 77 / 0 0 20 50 Picacho......................... 52 80 51 74 / 0 0 20 50 Elk............................. 50 79 49 76 / 0 0 10 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-212>216-223- 226>234.