textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms.

- A low risk of severe storms exists today across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Water vapor imagery and 00Z RAOBs indicated a broad 596dm H5 ridge stretching from SoCal eastward into northern Sonora Thursday night. A weak shortwave trough and associated 40kt speed max entering southern NV early this morning will shift east into southern CO this afternoon while the upper level ridge lifts northeast toward the Four Corners. At the surface, dewpoints are modest across NM with many areas in the 30s and 40s. A convectively-aided surface boundary is draped over northeast NM with higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Ascent with the approaching speed max, low level convergence with the surface boundary, and the high terrain of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and Raton Ridge will allow storm development this afternoon. A few of these storms may be severe as HREF and REFS joint probs of CAPE >500 J/kg, CIN >-25, and effective bulk shear >30kt are >70% over far northeast NM. SPC also indicates a 'Slight Risk' area over Union County with a larger 'Marginal Risk' over northeast NM. The rest of the forecast area will be very hot and mainly dry. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Four Corners and the Middle and Lower RGV where highs will reach the low 100s. High-based showers are still possible near the higher terrain with gusty downburst winds and little to no rainfall.

The convection over northeast NM will force a moist outflow boundary southwest across eastern NM and thru gaps in the central mt chain tonight. A moderate gap wind is likely after midnight from Santa Fe to the ABQ metro where REFS wind gust probs >40 mph average 50 to 70%. Deepening moisture behind this boundary will set the stage for greater coverage of showers and storms Saturday along and east of the central mt chain, including the southwest high terrain. The H5 ridge will build to near 598dm over western CO which forces steering flow more north to south. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will increase as PWATs rise above 1" over southern and eastern NM and storms have the tendency to form repeatedly along the high terrain. REFS and HREF 24-hr LPMM QPF shows storm footprints with rainfall >1" and isolated values >1.50". It may be a close call for Ruidoso Saturday as storms capable of producing heavy rainfall move south to southwest down the spine of the Sacramento Mts. A Flood Watch may be needed if confidence on heavy rainfall increases.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The storms Saturday will force another convective outflow west thru the RGV into western NM for Sunday. The H5 ridge will build to near 599dm from central CO northeastward into the northern Great Plains Sunday and Monday. This will allow deep layer east-southeast flow to set up over the southwest CONUS. The atmospheric pattern gets really complicated with lower predictability as a large area of convection that is currently moving across the Great Plains becomes a closed- low and migrates around the developing upper level high in the northern Great Plains. Despite deepening low to mid level moisture over NM, a large area of dry air above 500mb with the upper level ridge may cap convective development over our area Sunday thru Tuesday, or at least shift the focus into far western and southern NM. Models have various and inconsistent interpretations of how the closed-low will shift west and impact our storm chances beyond Tuesday. At this time, guidance is showing a trend toward higher storm chances with locally heavy rainfall as early as Wednesday and continuing thru Thursday or Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated SHRA/TS near the southwest high terrain early this morning will clear thru 8am. SHRA/TS will redevelop near the central high terrain between 1pm and 3pm then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys on convective outflows. Any activity over northern and central NM will be dry with downburst wind gusts >40KT. A few strong to severe storms are possible over northeast NM between 1pm and 8pm. A direct hit will be capable of wind gusts >45KT, brief moderate to heavy rain, hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Storms over northeast NM will send a convective outflow southwest across eastern NM to the central mt chain thru late this evening. East winds of 30-40KT are possible below canyons in the RGV between 11pm and 5am. An Airport Weather Warning may be required for KABQ.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

There is no critical fire weather forecast for at least the next 7 days. A limited crop of storms with wetting rainfall will develop over the southern high terrain and highlands of eastern NM this afternoon. Storm motion will be erratic toward the south and east around 10-20 mph. Any showers over central NM will be dry with strong downburst winds and little to no rainfall. The storms over northeast NM today will force a moist boundary southwestward to the central chain tonight. Greater coverage of showers and storms with wetting rainfall will occur along and east of the central mt chain Saturday afternoon. Storm motion will south to southwest at 10-20 mph. Another large outflow Saturday night will deepen moisture much farther west into western NM and AZ for Sunday. Forecast confidence is lower on storm coverage beginning Sunday as models are in stark disagreement with how much upper level dry air will impact airmass stability on several days next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 100 60 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 96 47 98 52 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 94 56 93 59 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 95 55 96 59 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 91 57 92 59 / 0 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 95 57 96 59 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 92 60 92 61 / 5 0 5 5 Magdalena....................... 93 66 92 65 / 20 5 5 10 Datil........................... 89 61 89 62 / 20 10 5 5 Reserve......................... 96 55 97 57 / 30 20 10 10 Glenwood........................ 100 59 100 59 / 40 20 50 30 Chama........................... 88 48 89 50 / 0 0 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 91 65 91 65 / 10 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 93 57 90 57 / 5 5 50 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 89 55 89 56 / 0 0 20 0 Red River....................... 80 47 79 49 / 5 0 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 84 43 83 44 / 5 0 50 0 Taos............................ 93 52 92 53 / 0 0 20 0 Mora............................ 88 53 86 54 / 10 10 60 5 Espanola........................ 98 62 99 63 / 5 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 93 63 92 63 / 0 0 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 61 95 61 / 0 0 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 100 70 99 69 / 0 5 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 102 68 99 66 / 0 5 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 104 68 102 66 / 0 5 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 102 70 100 69 / 0 5 5 0 Belen........................... 103 68 101 65 / 0 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 103 69 101 67 / 0 5 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 103 66 100 63 / 0 5 10 5 Corrales........................ 104 69 102 67 / 0 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 103 68 101 65 / 0 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 99 69 97 68 / 0 0 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 103 69 100 68 / 0 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 104 73 103 71 / 5 0 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 95 62 93 62 / 0 5 30 5 Tijeras......................... 95 63 94 62 / 0 5 30 5 Edgewood........................ 97 59 94 58 / 0 5 30 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 56 95 55 / 5 5 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 91 57 89 56 / 10 10 50 20 Mountainair..................... 96 60 94 58 / 5 5 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 94 62 91 61 / 10 10 50 40 Carrizozo....................... 96 67 94 65 / 20 20 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 88 61 86 59 / 40 20 40 20 Capulin......................... 86 52 86 54 / 60 40 40 10 Raton........................... 91 53 91 54 / 40 20 60 5 Springer........................ 93 55 92 55 / 40 20 60 5 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 88 56 / 20 20 50 10 Clayton......................... 93 61 93 62 / 40 50 20 30 Roy............................. 90 59 89 59 / 20 30 50 30 Conchas......................... 100 65 97 64 / 20 40 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 95 64 93 62 / 20 30 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 101 67 97 66 / 20 60 20 50 Clovis.......................... 100 67 96 66 / 0 30 5 40 Portales........................ 100 69 97 66 / 0 30 0 30 Fort Sumner..................... 100 69 96 66 / 10 30 0 40 Roswell......................... 102 71 99 69 / 0 10 0 30 Picacho......................... 97 65 94 63 / 20 10 10 30 Elk............................. 94 63 91 60 / 30 10 20 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219>221.