textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1153 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico today, retreating to northwest and far west central New Mexico this weekend before expanding back east Monday.

- A higher coverage of thunderstorms across central and eastern New Mexico today and Saturday. Storms today and Saturday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.

- Strong east canyon winds across the eastern ABQ and Santa Fe metro this evening and early Saturday morning will result in difficult crosswinds on north to south oriented roads and highlands and blow around unsecured outdoor items.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The 00Z upper air analysis showed the Monsoon high over central NM at a 500mb height of 598dam. The Monsoon high is forecast to move west to over AZ and continue to strengthen to 600dam at 500mb. More heat is forecast today and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the Northwest Plateau, middle and lower RGV and the Chaves County Plains. A backdoor front is still forecast to progress to the central mountain chain today, replenishing low level moisture and sparking a more robust round of convection relative to the past couple of days. As the upper high shifts west into AZ, northwest flow aloft will increase across northeast and east central NM and combine with low level easterly flow to boost 0-6km bulk shear to 30-35kts, which is sufficient for a severe storms. The SPC has much of east central and northeast NM included in a marginal risk for severe storms on the day 1 convective outlook. Convective cold pooling across eastern NM will help nudge the front west through the central mountain chain this evening, resulting in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys that will persist overnight. Low level moisture behind the backdoor front will be transported west overnight into Saturday morning to near the AZ border and set the stage for a more active day with even greater severe potential as flow aloft turns northerly and 0-6km bulk shear increases by another 5-10kts relative to Friday. The SPC has a sizable marginal risk area for severe storms on Saturday that encompasses much of eastern and central NM and includes the RGV. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso both today and Saturday, but Saturday's risk is a touch higher given potential for wet grounds from today's rainfall and a good chance for multiple rounds on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The Monsoon high will weaken some Sun/Mon and a downtick in daytime heating initiated storms is forecast as drier air aloft rotates around the high circulation over NM and PWATs decline. Heat risk will trend back up Monday for a number of lower elevation locales and advisories may be required, with potential extension into Tuesday. The Monsoon high will remain weakened and wobble about the region from mid through late week, with renewed rounds of daily storms favoring northern and western NM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently developing across the central mountain chain and Gila mountains will move east-southeast into the eastern highlands and plains and lower RGV this afternoon and evening. Storms along and east of the central mountain chain will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, with all storms in the airspace capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and visibility reductions. Showers and storms linger across eastern NM during the evening hours before slowly tapering off early Saturday morning. Outflow from storms along and east of the central mountain chain will produce a strong east canyon wind at KSAF and especially KABQ mid to late this evening lasting through early Saturday morning. An Airport Weather Warning has been issued for the ABQ Sunport from 8 PM MDT this evening to 3 AM MDT Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. Strong high pressure aloft will bring continued hot temperatures to the lower elevations today, then again early next week. A backdoor front will replenish moisture across eastern NM today, leading to an uptick in coverage of wetting storms along/east of the central mountain chain. The backdoor front will surge west to near the AZ border tonight into Saturday night, setting the stage for wetting storms across much of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Humidity recovery will improve and be good to excellent behind the backdoor front. Chances for wetting storms will decrease Sun/Mon, then ramp back up going into the middle of the week as high pressure aloft weakens some.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 102 67 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 96 55 93 52 / 5 0 20 10 Cuba............................ 94 59 90 57 / 5 0 20 10 Gallup.......................... 97 60 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 92 59 92 57 / 5 10 10 0 Grants.......................... 96 62 94 59 / 0 5 10 10 Quemado......................... 93 61 93 61 / 10 20 10 5 Magdalena....................... 95 64 91 62 / 20 30 20 20 Datil........................... 91 61 89 58 / 30 30 30 20 Reserve......................... 97 61 95 60 / 50 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 102 66 97 63 / 30 20 30 20 Chama........................... 89 52 82 50 / 10 10 50 10 Los Alamos...................... 91 62 84 60 / 20 10 50 10 Pecos........................... 90 57 82 54 / 60 20 80 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 55 83 54 / 40 50 30 20 Red River....................... 78 46 72 45 / 70 70 50 10 Angel Fire...................... 81 39 77 36 / 90 70 80 10 Taos............................ 92 54 87 51 / 40 50 40 10 Mora............................ 83 52 79 50 / 80 80 80 10 Espanola........................ 97 62 91 59 / 10 20 40 10 Santa Fe........................ 92 61 86 60 / 30 10 60 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 97 60 90 58 / 20 10 60 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 100 67 94 65 / 10 10 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 66 96 64 / 5 20 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 102 66 97 64 / 5 20 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 102 68 96 66 / 5 10 20 10 Belen........................... 104 65 98 63 / 5 30 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 102 66 96 64 / 5 10 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 102 63 97 61 / 5 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 103 67 96 65 / 5 10 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 102 65 97 63 / 5 20 10 20 Placitas........................ 100 65 93 63 / 10 10 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 102 67 95 65 / 5 10 20 10 Socorro......................... 105 70 98 67 / 10 30 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 59 87 57 / 20 20 50 10 Tijeras......................... 97 61 90 59 / 20 20 50 10 Edgewood........................ 96 57 89 54 / 30 20 60 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 55 90 52 / 40 20 70 30 Clines Corners.................. 91 57 83 55 / 60 20 60 20 Mountainair..................... 96 57 89 56 / 30 50 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 95 59 90 57 / 40 50 60 50 Carrizozo....................... 100 65 91 62 / 40 50 70 60 Ruidoso......................... 88 59 81 56 / 60 60 80 60 Capulin......................... 83 53 82 52 / 80 80 50 10 Raton........................... 87 53 88 52 / 90 80 60 10 Springer........................ 90 54 89 53 / 90 70 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 88 55 82 53 / 80 60 80 10 Clayton......................... 92 62 90 60 / 30 30 30 20 Roy............................. 88 58 85 56 / 90 60 50 20 Conchas......................... 98 63 93 61 / 70 70 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 97 62 90 60 / 60 60 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 98 64 94 61 / 40 80 40 30 Clovis.......................... 101 65 92 63 / 30 80 40 30 Portales........................ 102 66 92 63 / 20 80 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 102 66 92 63 / 30 70 40 40 Roswell......................... 105 71 95 68 / 5 40 20 60 Picacho......................... 97 65 89 62 / 30 40 40 60 Elk............................. 94 62 85 59 / 50 30 60 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-220-238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-205.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ219.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ226.