textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 547 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms are likely each day through Monday, with coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe over eastern areas today, over central areas Sunday, and in the east again Monday.

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars each day through Monday. Elsewhere, there is a low risk of localized flash flooding in eastern New Mexico today, along the central mountain chain Sunday, then along and east of the central mountain chain again Monday.

- Hot, dry, and gusty weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday with an increasing risk of rapid fire spread, especially central and west on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday Night) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

An elongated ridge of high pressure over the Gulf Coast has steered subtropical moisture northward over NM, so daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will return to many locations today through Monday. The greatest coverage of precip looks to occur on Sunday and Sunday night, when an upper level trough tracking southeastward over the central and southern Rockies will invigorate convection over NM. Notorious northwest flow aloft is expected to enhance shear enough for another round of severe storms today, probably starting over northeast areas in the early afternoon, then shifting focus over east central areas during the late afternoon and early evening. A backdoor cold front tonight will push all the way into the central valley with a gusty east canyon wind by Sunday morning. Behind the front, it will probably be too stable on the eastern plains for much in the way of storms Sunday afternoon, but shear and instability profiles Sunday afternoon and evening look favorable for at least a few strong to severe storms along the central mountain chain and westward to the east slopes of the western mountains, including the central valley. Instability will increase Sunday night on the plains, when storms are forecast as the upper trough crosses.

Hydro-wise, PWATs today and Sunday will vary from around 0.60" along the western border of the forecast area to around 1.15" along the eastern border. This will enable some locally heavy rainfall from the central mountain chain eastward today, and again along the central mountain chain Sunday, and potentially onto the eastern plains Sunday night. On Monday somewhat drier air will begin filtering over the forecast area from the northwest, while Gulf moisture continues to pump into eastern areas from the southeast, enabling another robust round of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the continental divide, and especially along and just east of the central mountain chain. Ruidoso area residents will need to remain vigilant due to the ongoing threat of flash flooding each afternoon today through Monday, and into the early evening hours as well on Sunday due to the upper trough tracking through the region. Meanwhile, some very gusty virga showers and dry storms are expected mainly west of the central mountain chain today, then along and west of the continental divide Sunday and Monday.

With lower elevation readings mostly in the 90s, today's high temperatures will vary from near 30-year averages in the west to as much as 9 degrees above average central and east. On Sunday, readings will fall around 20-30 degrees in the east, around 10-15 degrees over central areas, and only a few degrees west of the continental divide. Highs should then rebound a few to 11 degrees in most locations on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Disturbances exiting the northern Rockies into the upper Great Plains will steer much drier air over the forecast area from the northwest both Tuesday and Wednesday shutting down convection, except for perhaps a few light showers and storms over the southern tier of mountains. Northwest flow will probably be gusty enough for locally critical fire weather conditions along and west of the northwest mountains Tuesday afternoon, then for more widespread critical fire weather conditions over central and western areas on Wednesday. Northwest wind gusts should peak in the 25-40 mph range on Wednesday due to stronger flow aloft and a surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies. The drier air will also enable high temperatures to shoot near average to 8 degrees above average on Tuesday, then around 3-14 degrees above average on Wednesday. Wednesday's highs should generally vary around 100-105 degrees across the eastern plains, with hundred degree readings in parts of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley as well.

A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to build northward over NM during the latter half of the work week, while an upper level trough tracks inland over the CA coast drawing enough subtropical moisture northward over NM for thunderstorms to redevelop starting Thursday. In addition, a somewhat moist backdoor cold front that reaches as far west as the central mountain chain Wednesday night will probably also increase thunderstorm chances starting Thursday. Storms should become more widespread on Friday as the upper trough makes more progress over the Desert Southwest further enhancing southeasterly low-level return flow.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the central mountain chain eastward, with isolated to scattered activity over central and especially western NM this afternoon and evening. Clusters and lines of storms should form in the east as the afternoon progresses, where some storms will probably turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Along and west of the central mountain chain, some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will produce little or no rain at the surface with localized, brief, and erratic dry or mostly dry microburst wind gusts potentially near 50 KT. Trusted high res models depict thunderstorm gust fronts congealing from convection over the western mountains and plowing east and northeastward through the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley, and northwest plateau, with wind gusts potentially around 40 KT during the late afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Aside from erratic thunderstorm outflow, the main fire weather concerns today through Monday will be dry lightning and gusty virga showers. These will be most widespread west of the central mountain chain today. Late this afternoon and early evening, high res models depict broad thunderstorm gust fronts surging east and northeastward into the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley, and also over the northwest plateau, with wind gusts generally reaching 35-45 mph. Dry storms on Sunday and Monday should mostly be relegated along and west of the continental divide. After locally critical fire weather conditions over northwest areas Tuesday afternoon, coverage of critical fire weather conditions looks to increase Wednesday over western areas and potentially as far east as the Central Highlands. At this time, the greatest risk for Red Flag conditions Wednesday looks to be over the North Central Mountains and Northwest Plateau. Rain today through Monday may mitigate the risk over the Central Highlands by Wednesday. Gusty virga showers and mostly dry storms should then return to northwest areas, west central areas, and the central valley again Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 61 91 58 / 0 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 90 49 84 44 / 5 10 70 20 Cuba............................ 88 57 79 51 / 5 20 60 30 Gallup.......................... 87 51 86 48 / 20 20 40 10 El Morro........................ 85 54 82 51 / 20 20 40 20 Grants.......................... 89 54 84 51 / 20 20 60 30 Quemado......................... 85 55 84 53 / 40 10 30 10 Magdalena....................... 88 62 81 57 / 20 10 70 40 Datil........................... 85 58 81 54 / 30 20 60 30 Reserve......................... 92 52 92 51 / 40 20 30 10 Glenwood........................ 97 56 97 54 / 20 10 20 20 Chama........................... 83 47 76 43 / 5 20 80 30 Los Alamos...................... 85 62 76 56 / 20 20 80 60 Pecos........................... 89 54 75 49 / 10 20 60 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 53 75 50 / 20 30 90 50 Red River....................... 76 43 65 41 / 30 40 90 60 Angel Fire...................... 80 43 68 39 / 20 50 90 70 Taos............................ 87 53 78 48 / 20 20 90 50 Mora............................ 86 51 69 48 / 30 50 80 60 Espanola........................ 93 60 84 54 / 20 20 80 50 Santa Fe........................ 88 61 77 55 / 10 20 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 59 80 52 / 10 10 60 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 85 61 / 10 10 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 65 86 59 / 10 10 60 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 65 88 58 / 10 10 60 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 66 87 61 / 10 10 60 40 Belen........................... 98 63 89 57 / 10 10 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 97 66 87 60 / 10 10 70 40 Bosque Farms.................... 97 62 88 55 / 10 10 50 40 Corrales........................ 98 66 88 60 / 10 10 70 40 Los Lunas....................... 98 63 88 57 / 10 10 50 40 Placitas........................ 93 67 82 60 / 10 10 70 40 Rio Rancho...................... 97 66 86 60 / 10 10 70 40 Socorro......................... 99 68 91 62 / 20 10 60 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 61 78 54 / 10 10 70 50 Tijeras......................... 91 60 80 54 / 10 10 60 50 Edgewood........................ 93 58 78 51 / 10 10 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 54 78 48 / 10 10 40 50 Clines Corners.................. 89 53 70 50 / 20 20 30 50 Mountainair..................... 93 56 78 51 / 10 10 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 92 57 77 52 / 10 10 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 94 66 83 60 / 10 20 50 60 Ruidoso......................... 87 59 73 55 / 30 20 70 70 Capulin......................... 86 45 64 44 / 20 60 50 50 Raton........................... 90 50 69 47 / 20 60 60 50 Springer........................ 91 52 69 48 / 20 60 50 50 Las Vegas....................... 89 53 68 49 / 30 30 40 50 Clayton......................... 95 52 66 50 / 40 60 30 40 Roy............................. 90 52 66 49 / 30 50 40 40 Conchas......................... 97 56 71 53 / 50 40 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 94 55 69 53 / 40 30 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 99 56 71 54 / 50 50 30 30 Clovis.......................... 97 59 72 55 / 10 50 40 50 Portales........................ 98 59 74 55 / 10 50 40 60 Fort Sumner..................... 96 59 74 55 / 30 40 30 50 Roswell......................... 99 66 81 60 / 20 20 40 60 Picacho......................... 94 59 75 56 / 60 20 40 70 Elk............................. 93 58 77 55 / 60 20 60 70

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.