textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 409 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico over the next week as several backdoor cold fronts push through the area.

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next several days. Low chances of precipitation return Friday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Surface winds have already veered around to the south and southwest early this morning, though temps are still quite cold. A lee side trough will deepen this afternoon allowing westerly winds to pick up. Downsloping will cause temperatures to increase on the order of 25 degrees from yesterday's readings. The breeziest conditions will be felt across the Central Highlands, to include KCQC, where gusts up to 35 mph are expected.

Another backdoor cold front will slide into northeast NM this evening and will continue to back into the state overnight as a 1035 mb surface high slides down the Great Plains into OK. The surface high center is progged to be a little further east than it was yesterday, and as a result, only a light to moderate east wind is expected in the Rio Grande Valley Monday morning. Nonetheless, temperatures will yo-yo back downward across eastern NM behind the front. Most areas will struggle to get out of the 30s, which means highs will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, little change for western NM.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

After subsiding Monday afternoon, the east wind should return in the Rio Grande Valley Monday evening, though it will remain on the light to moderate side. Low temperatures in the teens will be common for much of the area, especially across eastern NM behind the front.

Surface winds veer around to the west and southwest early Tuesday and downsloping will again yo-yo temperatures back upward across the plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the I-40 corridor across eastern NM. Again, little change for western NM. Models have been struggling with the timing of the next cold front on Wednesday. Some models suggest a weak front will push into northeast NM in the morning, but a stronger cold front will arrive on Wednesday night. Other models suggest just one main front pushing through all of the eastern plains Wednesday morning. This makes the temp forecast a little tricky, but expect a downward temp trend behind the front when it arrives. Models do agree, however, that winds will quickly veer back around to the south and southwest by Thursday afternoon which will limit any cooling on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the highly amplified upper level pattern from the early half of the week will finally break down late in the week, but the details are still blurry. A northern stream trough may slide down from the PacNW across NM on Friday increasing westerly breezes, but the strength of the system may be too weak, and instead another backdoor front could push into eastern NM Friday. There's also the question of the Pacific low and how fast it will trek eastward, how strong it will be, and whether or not it will phase with another northern stream trough next weekend. Low PoPs (<20%) remain in the forecast for Friday through the weekend but the details remain very uncertain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 409 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. High clouds will increase from west to east late this morning through the overnight hours. A few westerly breezes are expected across east central NM with gusts up to 30kt this afternoon. This evening, a backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM, switching winds around to the northeast and east. The front will continue to sag southward through the overnight hours. A weak gap wind is expected in the Rio Grande Valley, including KSAF and KABQ, as the front pushes through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. Main fire weather concern is widespread poor ventilation over the next several days. There will be brief pockets of better vent rates, including today over the Sangre de Cristo Mtns, and Monday along and east of the Central Mtn Chain. Otherwise, poor vent rates will be the rule through Thursday. Large temperature swings due to periodic backdoor cold fronts remain on tap for eastern NM, with little variability across western NM. A pattern change toward next weekend may bring some light precipitation to the area, but the details are fuzzy and confidence is very low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 46 23 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 16 49 13 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 23 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 53 20 53 13 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 27 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 56 20 55 14 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 54 27 54 20 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 32 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 54 29 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 64 24 63 21 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 65 26 66 23 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 17 43 14 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 47 27 43 22 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 21 41 18 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 22 42 18 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 40 16 34 13 / 0 0 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 46 9 38 5 / 0 0 5 5 Taos............................ 49 16 45 11 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 56 17 39 16 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 53 21 51 16 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 27 44 22 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 24 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 27 55 22 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 54 23 54 19 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 29 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 24 55 19 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 55 28 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 24 54 20 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 31 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 28 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 27 44 22 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 28 46 23 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 51 24 43 19 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 20 43 13 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 21 35 17 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 51 24 45 19 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 52 24 47 19 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 29 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 54 31 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 14 32 14 / 0 5 5 0 Raton........................... 56 14 34 11 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 59 15 35 10 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 57 18 34 15 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 57 20 34 21 / 0 5 5 0 Roy............................. 56 19 33 14 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 61 24 39 16 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 24 39 18 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 62 22 39 17 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 60 23 39 17 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 61 22 41 14 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 62 24 42 14 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 25 49 19 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 28 44 19 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 64 26 46 17 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.