textproduct: Albuquerque

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds along north-to-south roads from Santa Fe to Albuquerque, including I-25 arrives tonight from east wind gusts below canyons opening into the Rio Grande Valley.

- A minor risk of heat-related illness for those most sensitive to heat returns Tuesday through Thursday as record heat returns.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Relief from the heat is advancing into northeastern NM this morning behind a fast moving cold front pushing southward from eastern CO. The associated fast moving shortwave perturbation embedded within the jetstream has pushed out over the high plains over WY/CO/NE and subsidence behind this feature will act to continue advancing the aforementioned cold front south and west thru eastern NM late this afternoon and tonight. High temperatures behind the front will be 15F to 20F cooler from yesterday's readings, mainly from Clayton to Tucumcari. Despite the cool down, these highs will remain 9F to 15F above normal. Elsewhere, highs will remain 15F to 25F above normal in the 80s and 90s, a few degrees cooler than yesterday's readings thanks to the flattening and weakening of the abnormally strong H5 dome of high pressure. The cold front will advance further south and west pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening around 7pm to 10pm from Santa Fe to Albuquerque and thru Carrizozo shortly thereafter. East canyon winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will be likely thru places like the Tijeras and Bear Canyons into eastern Albuquerque lasting overnight into the early morning hours of Monday. Strong crosswinds on north-to-south highways like I-25 and Tramway Blvd. will be an issue for high profile vehicles during this time.

The cooler and relatively moisture laden airmass behind the cold front advances to and west of the Continental Divide by sunrise Monday morning before washing out. High temperatures fall back considerably over eastern NM into the 70s with 80s holding onto lower elevations along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Despite the fall of temperatures by 5F to 25F, they will remain near to above normal which speaks volumes to how abnormally hot it has been this past week and weekend. What little low-level moisture infiltrates the forecast area behind the front will only be enough to yield scattered to broken afternoon cumulus. Bottom-line, dry conditions persist.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

After seeing the historically strong and hot H5 dome of high pressure get wrecked and flattened today and Monday, it will arise from the ashes again Tuesday over the Desert Southwest. While numerical model guidance is not advertising it reaching the 595- 597dm strength again, it will strengthen along the international border with Mexico to ~591 allowing for highs to climb back into the 80s and 90s. More daily and monthly record high temperatures will be at risk Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. Thursday sees the high become flattened a little as a weak H5 low opens and crosses northern AZ and NM. This will bring strong westerly winds to the forecast area Thursday afternoon.

Thereafter, the aforementioned H5 shortwave phases with a synoptically larger troughing pattern within the jetstream stretching from the Hudson's Bay southward over the Midwest. A resulting potent cold front will follow in this larger feature's wake bringing another round of cooler temperatures and higher moisture into eastern and central NM Friday. Currently, this cold front has stronger potential to bring higher low-level moisture thru more of NM beneath the H5 high. The result, a higher chance for light showers and unfortunately a higher potential for dry lightning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A backdoor cold front continues to race south and west through eastern NM late this afternoon. Gusts between 25 and 35kt will persist behind it through sunset. The front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain bringing east (southeast) gap winds to KABQ (KSAF) by 02Z. Gusts near 35 kt will be likely at KABQ and an Airport Weather Warning may be needed. Gusts near 30kt are expected at KSAF. The front will continue to race westward toward the AZ border through mid morning Monday though winds speeds will slowly diminish. During Monday afternoon, the front will mix out across western and central NM and west to southwest breezes will return. Otherwise, periods of high cloudiness will persist through Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Dry and hot conditions remain over western and central NM this afternoon with elevated fire weather conditions with wind being the limiting factor. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is pushing southward thru eastern NM today bringing gusty winds up to 30 to 40 mph alongside cooler temperatures and higher humidity. A brief 1-3 hr period of critical fire weather conditions will accompany the immediately frontal passage when gusty winds arrive and before humidity increases enough. This front will surge south and west tonight pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain and to the Continental Divide and beyond into the Northwest Plateau by Monday morning. Strong east canyon winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph will reach Santa Fe and Albuquerque this evening and tonight as a result.

Monday sees lighter winds, relatively cooler temperatures and higher humidity bring a brief respite to fire weather concerns. The heat and dryness return Tuesday and Wednesday with modest winds each afternoon yielding elevated fire weather conditions. Westerlies increase Thursday bringing an increased risk of elevated to locally critical conditions to northern areas. Another cold front brings cooler temperatures and higher moisture Friday and into next weekend. While bringing an end of any critical fire weather concerns, this will also increase the risk of sporadic virga showers and dry lightning next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 45 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 33 78 35 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 39 75 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 80 36 83 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 76 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 35 81 38 84 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 41 79 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 83 37 87 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 46 87 42 91 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 36 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 44 73 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 72 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 71 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 35 62 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 25 68 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 33 75 35 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 33 73 43 80 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 43 80 43 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 43 73 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 75 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 79 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 84 48 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 41 83 43 90 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 81 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 83 44 91 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 46 83 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 83 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 77 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 46 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 85 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 74 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 42 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 38 77 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 79 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 72 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 38 78 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 40 77 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 47 79 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 39 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 30 65 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 70 37 84 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 73 37 86 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 34 70 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 35 67 43 84 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 34 67 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 38 76 43 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 73 45 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 75 45 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 40 73 48 92 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 40 75 46 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 75 43 94 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 46 75 47 95 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 77 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 38 80 49 89 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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