textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread Thursday and again this weekend across eastern and portions of central NM.

- A strong backdoor cold front will bring notably colder and brisk conditions to eastern NM Sunday into Monday.

- Strong high pressure will move over the region going into the middle of next week, with high temperatures likely challenging daily and March records.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The backdoor cold front that pressed through eastern NM this morning has nudged up against the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain. Temps are quite chilly, especially as compared to yesterday. Northeasterly winds are slowly decreasing, and the Wind Advisory for this area expired at noon. At or above normal temps continue across the west.

Temperatures quickly rebound on Thursday. The surface front will mix out as strong west to northwest flow mixes to the surface. Additionally, a 1005 surface low will develop over southeast CO during the afternoon hours. This will result in westerly winds increasing by late morning. Winds will be strongest across eastern NM where gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be common. This strong downsloping will aid in temperatures rebounding into the 70s across the eastern plains. In fact, all areas across northern and central NM will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

A belt of 30-40kt H7 winds will persist from northwest NM to southeast NM Thursday night. Therefore, could see a few erratic gusts Thursday night around KCQC and Vaughn, but overall, winds should diminish Thursday evening.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend, though on Sunday, an upper level trough will cross the northern and central Rockies, steering the upper level jet more squarely over northern NM. Thus, winds will continue to be the main story for the next several days. On Friday, the surface low will slide southward and position itself over east central NM. This will keep winds from getting as strong as they will today, with one exception being around KCQC. Nonetheless, temps will continue to rise. All areas will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. On Saturday, a new surface low will deepen over eastern CO to between 992-995mb. Deep mixing is expected, but mid level flow will not notably increase until late Saturday in response to the approaching trough. Nonetheless, widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected, especially across north central and northeast NM. High temperatures areawide will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal and a few locations will be near records for the date. Mid level (H7) winds will increase overnight to between 50 and 65kt along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Concern exists for strong and erratic wind gusts due to mountain wave activity along and east of the Central Mtn Chain early Sunday morning. Immediately east of the Central Mtn Chain, these winds will rapidly increase with daytime mixing on Sunday. However, a strong backdoor cold front will quickly press into NE NM by mid morning Sunday and will race southward through the afternoon. This front will quickly switch winds around to the north and northeast and gusty winds, perhaps up to 50 mph, are expected behind it. This front will cool temperatures, but most areas will remain above normal Sunday afternoon. Models are indicating that the front will push westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain late Sunday night, bringing a gap wind to the Rio Grande Valley. A hard freeze is expected Sunday night for much of eastern NM and high temperatures on Monday across this area will be near or just below normal.

Meanwhile, a 588-590dam H5 high will be shifting over CA on Monday and then will continue to slide eastward over the Desert Southwest and slowly strengthen through mid week. This will both keep winds light and allow temperatures to soar. Record heat is likely Tuesday through much of the rest of the week and even March records will be in jeopardy. Any snowpack that remains will quickly decrease.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Gusty west-northwest winds across northwest and north central NM will taper off around sunset. East- northeast winds across eastern NM will quickly turn around to south winds early Thursday morning. Gustier west-southwest winds develop across far northeast NM around sunrise Thursday expanding south to east central NM late Thursday morning due to the development of a surface lee trough. Gusty west-southwest winds across northern and east central NM Thursday afternoon with peak wind gusts of around 25 to 40 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday across eastern NM, especially along and 50 miles either side of Interstate 40. Westerly wind gusts up to 50 mph and humidity values dropping into or close to the single digits are expected. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded into a Red Flag Warning. Winds will not be as strong across eastern NM on Friday, except across portions of the Central Highlands where a few hours of critical fire weather conditions remain possible in a small area. Westerly winds increase again on Saturday across north central and northeast NM. Meanwhile, widespread single digit RH will be the rule in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be on tap for at least the Northeast Highlands and the upper Rio Grande Valley. A backdoor cold front will race across eastern NM on Sunday. Wind gusts behind the front will be up to 50 mph, and though temps will be cooling, RH values will still be below 15 percent for most areas. Thus, near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are not out of the question across eastern NM, even behind the cold front. It will be cooler on Monday but still breezy. Less wind will be in store Tues and Wed, however, temperatures will soar to record numbers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 28 68 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 64 25 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 22 69 24 72 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 64 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 23 70 25 72 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 28 66 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 35 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 30 66 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 71 30 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 32 75 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 59 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 34 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 27 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 51 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 17 57 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 64 26 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 26 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 30 71 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 67 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 38 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 73 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 31 75 33 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 30 74 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 73 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 30 74 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 36 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 35 72 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 76 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 35 65 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 31 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 69 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 28 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 67 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 31 66 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 37 67 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 33 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 24 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 20 70 30 75 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 72 31 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 25 68 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 73 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 28 79 37 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 29 74 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 30 78 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 29 73 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 28 73 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 30 76 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 75 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 32 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 73 39 78 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.