textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Scattered showers and storms this evening and again Friday may produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts. A few severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts. - Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central New Mexico.

- There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness in eastern New Mexico today through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Scattered storms have already developed and will continue to increase in coverage across central and northern NM this afternoon. A weak westerly shortwave currently in eastern AZ will trek eastward into New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with shower and storm coverage focusing along this wave. The 18Z Sounding at KABQ shows a PWAT of 0.92", which is the highest to date thus far in 2026. As a result of this increased moisture, cloud bases will be lower and rainfall will be more efficient compared to the last couple of days. That does not get us out of the clear in terms of strong outflow wind gusts at the sfc with over 1000 J/kg of DCAPE forecast in western NM this afternoon with peak daytime heating. Only modest instability will be the limiting factor for stronger storms, but hi- res models are picking up on the development of strong cold pools, which will cluster together and produce strong and long outflow boundaries with wind gusts in the 30 to 55 mph range. There is around a 10% of gusts in excess of 60 mph within 30 miles of any given location per the HREF. Despite the anomalous moisture, the lack of instability will limit rainfall rates so flash flooding is unlikely today. Furthermore, west to east storm motions of 15 to 25 mph will prevent storms from becoming terrain tied, with localized areas of 0.75" a reasonable high-end rainfall total for most areas. An outflow boundary from an MCS over Kansas will send a boundary into northeast NM this evening, potentially initiating additional, stronger storms. This development would only focus over the NE corner of the state and should end by Midnight. Showers with a few embedded storms could persist in western and central NM through around Midnight along the aformentioned shortwave. The decoupling of the boundary layer will decrease the threat of any strong winds with this activity.

The elongated ridge over northern Mexico will weaken and shift eastward on Friday in response to the deepening of a trough over The Great Basin. PWATs will decrease around 0.2" from today, but there will still be enough moisture for scattered convection in the same areas as today. The environment appears to be slightly more unstable than today, with higher dewpoint depressions at the surface. Most storms will still be of the wetter variety, but the drying boundary layer will make it harder for rain to reach the surface. Winds will be slightly stronger compared to today because of the approaching trough, with gusty southwest winds up to 40 mph in far western NM.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

New Mexico will come under the influence of a Great Basin trough this weekend, with dry southwest flow punching in from the west. The corridor of the strongest 700 mb winds (40 to 50 knots) punches in from the west late Saturday afternoon and early evening. Given the hot temperatures, strong vertical mixing will ensue, bringing these gusts down to the surface. Winds will strengthen through the evening into the overnight hours, which will keep windy conditions around through the overnight hours, particularly in and around the high terrain of northern NM. Winds spread into the lower elevations again Sunday afternoon, with the strongest gusts focusing over the northeastern portion of the state. Both days this weekend will be hot, but not unseasonably hot with highs generally a few degrees above seasonal normals.

There is a low chance of a few high-based gusty showers in the southeast corner of the state both Saturday and Sunday afternoons along the dryline separating the moist airmass to the southeast and the dry, spring-like airmass over the southern Rockies. This gradient will hold relatively steady Sunday into Monday, with it gradually pushing north and west Tuesday into Wednesday as the longwave trough over the Great Basin begins to retreat. A southerly moisture plume will set up over New Mexico mid to late next week, resulting in increased chances for showers and storms. Wetting rainfall will focus over eastern NM, with lesser chances further west where dewpoint depressions remain high. Flash flooding will become a concern over the Ruidoso Area burn scars with this favorable southerly flow pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Thunderstorms are decreasing in intensity across much of western and central New Mexico early this evening, but scattered storms will still impact areal airports, producing brief downpours, gusty winds, and lightning. This activity will slowly evolve into weaker showers through the late evening and post-midnight hours before diminishing through the early morning. In the eastern plains, storms are more sparse, but are a bit stronger with small hail and heavier downpours accompanying. Storms in eastern New Mexico should dissipate and die off through mid evening. Another crop of thunderstorms will redevelop Friday afternoon, generally favoring central to north central New Mexico with less activity in eastern areas of the state.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected around central and northern NM this afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will generally be in the 0.1 to 0.3" range, but there could be localized footprints upwards of 0.75". Strong outflow wind gusts will be the main concern with convection, with numerous gusts of 30 to 55 mph expected around the region. Friday will be a repeat of day, except a slightly lower coverage of showers and storms for areas south of I-40.

A fire growing pattern develops this weekend as southwest winds strengthen in response to a deepening trough over The Great Basin. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be commonplace, with a few gusts upwards of 50 mph in the high terrain. There is high confidence in critical fire weather conditions across the northwest portion of the state, with moderate confidence in northeastern NM and the Central Highlands. Any fire starts from lightning this week could spread rapidly. Strong southwest winds are likely again Sunday, with the strongest gusts focusing over northeast NM. Winds trend lower on Monday, but there could still be localized critical in the northeast. Moisture gradually returns to the region around the middle of next week, with increasing rain chances in central and eastern areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 86 58 92 / 30 40 30 0 Dulce........................... 54 80 45 88 / 30 40 70 0 Cuba............................ 56 82 54 86 / 50 60 30 0 Gallup.......................... 55 85 53 86 / 50 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 55 82 54 84 / 50 20 10 0 Grants.......................... 57 85 54 89 / 40 30 10 0 Quemado......................... 57 83 55 86 / 30 30 5 0 Magdalena....................... 60 86 61 89 / 40 30 20 0 Datil........................... 57 83 58 85 / 40 20 10 0 Reserve......................... 59 89 53 91 / 30 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 63 92 57 96 / 30 10 10 0 Chama........................... 51 75 44 81 / 30 40 60 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 83 59 86 / 30 50 30 0 Pecos........................... 55 84 55 87 / 30 30 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 79 53 83 / 30 40 50 5 Red River....................... 48 69 46 74 / 30 40 40 0 Angel Fire...................... 49 76 42 79 / 20 20 40 0 Taos............................ 54 84 50 86 / 20 30 40 5 Mora............................ 54 82 53 85 / 20 30 20 0 Espanola........................ 59 88 56 93 / 30 50 30 5 Santa Fe........................ 56 84 59 88 / 30 30 30 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 87 56 91 / 20 30 30 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 88 65 94 / 30 30 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 91 61 95 / 30 30 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 93 61 97 / 30 30 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 91 62 96 / 30 40 20 0 Belen........................... 63 94 58 97 / 30 30 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 63 91 62 96 / 30 40 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 93 58 97 / 30 30 20 10 Corrales........................ 63 92 62 97 / 30 40 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 93 59 97 / 30 30 20 10 Placitas........................ 62 88 63 93 / 30 40 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 91 62 96 / 30 40 20 0 Socorro......................... 65 94 65 101 / 30 50 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 85 59 89 / 30 40 20 0 Tijeras......................... 59 86 59 90 / 30 30 20 0 Edgewood........................ 58 87 56 91 / 30 30 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 88 53 93 / 20 30 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 56 85 56 88 / 20 30 20 0 Mountainair..................... 59 87 57 92 / 20 20 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 89 58 91 / 20 10 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 92 65 95 / 20 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 84 61 87 / 20 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 56 84 53 88 / 20 30 20 0 Raton........................... 57 88 52 91 / 20 20 10 0 Springer........................ 59 91 54 92 / 20 30 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 56 86 57 88 / 20 20 10 0 Clayton......................... 62 89 61 96 / 20 40 50 0 Roy............................. 60 89 57 92 / 10 20 10 0 Conchas......................... 67 98 64 100 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 63 96 / 20 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 98 66 100 / 10 10 20 0 Clovis.......................... 67 96 67 100 / 20 10 10 10 Portales........................ 68 97 68 102 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 67 98 64 100 / 20 10 10 5 Roswell......................... 73 100 69 104 / 20 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 69 93 65 98 / 20 20 10 10 Elk............................. 66 90 62 95 / 20 20 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NMZ101-104-105-120-121-123-125.