textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- A few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will favor areas along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

- Storms will increasingly favor areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain Friday through the weekend.

- Near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat- related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The upper high will move a little to the west today, centered over or very near Luna, NM. Storms should develop over the high terrain near or shortly after the noon hour and shift toward the south or southeast around 5 to 15 mph. Much like yesterday, storms across western and central NM will be capable of strong outflow winds up to 50 mph with afternoon DCAPE values projected to be near 1500 J/kg. Meanwhile, storms along and east of the Central Mountain Chain are expected to be a little more robust, especially along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Better low level moisture, more mid level instability and 0-6km bulk shear values around 25-30kt will allow for a few strong to severe storms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. With steering flow having more of a northerly component across eastern NM compared to yesterday, storms will struggle to move eastward over the plains and should rather stay a little closer to the high terrain today, but models do indicate a few storms shifting across the plains this evening. Much of the activity will diminish around or shortly after midnight.

The upper high is projected to begin to shift northeastward on Friday, though should still be centered west of ABQ by the late aftn. Nonetheless, storm motions will be slower than today, especially across western NM. Storms will again initiate over the high terrain CWA-wide. PWATs will trend upward, and this combined with the slower storm motions will increase the risk for locally heavy rainfall, including around Ruidoso, where both the RRFS and HRRR have storms there in the early afternoon. A little less instability and shear is expected across eastern NM, thus the risk for severe weather decreases, though gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out areawide. More storms should reach the northeast plains as compared to today as well.

The storms this past evening and projected storms over the next day or two will keep temperatures more manageable and closer to normal (in the 90s) across eastern NM today and Friday. However, low to mid 90s across central and western NM are still around 10 degrees above normal for many locations. This results in near- record temperatures for these locations.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Storms will taper off Friday night. On Saturday, the upper high shifts over east central NM, but also elongates eastward across much of OK. This shift combined with a trough over the CA coast should allow a better moisture plume to stand up over AZ and western NM. Thus, storms on Saturday afternoon should favor western NM, and with PWATs approaching one inch, will be capable of heavy rainfall and localized nuisance or flash flooding. Storms will be moving toward the northeast around 10 to 15 mph. Isolated to scattered storms will also develop along the Central Mountain Chain but the focus will really be across western NM. Instead, temperatures will climb across eastern NM with the upper high overhead. High temperatures will near records as they soar up to 12 degrees above normal.

The upper high will finally shift east of NM Saturday night into Sunday. Models are hinting at a vort max, presumably from convection over MX the previous evening/night, will cross northwest NM Saturday night keeping showers and thunderstorms going through the overnight period. Timing will be everything with that vort max. If it does cross overnight and keep precipitation going, debris clouds may struggle to clear and the atmosphere could stay rather stable Sunday across the northwest. If the vort max crosses earlier or later, there will be better chances for storms Sunday afternoon across western NM. The upper high will remain east of NM, but it doesn't want to loosen its grip entirely. A ridge axis will be elongated back into east central/southeast NM which will limit storm potential. Thus, presuming there is enough instability, the favored area for storms and heavy rainfall will be across the west Sunday. Another vort max and/or energy from the original CA coast trough will cross NW NM Sunday night into Monday. The elongation of the ridge weakens around 1-2 dam at H5 across eastern NM Monday afternoon. With that in mind, storms should reach a little farther east than on Sunday, favoring areas along and west of the Central Mtn Chain.

Models are struggling with the position of the upper high Tuesday and Wednesday, though there is some hint that it will shift back over NM or perhaps a secondary high will redevelop over NM. Should that occur, it will likely disrupt the moisture plume and storm coverage will scale back from Sun/Mon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Patchy but dense fog has developed in the Moreno Valley, to include KAXX. Fog will persist through approximately 13Z before eroding. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening initially focused on the high terrain. A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds near 50kt, and heavy rainfall will focused near and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, gusty winds between 35 and 45 kt may accompany storms elsewhere. These strong outflows may locally kick up dust and reduce visibilities. Storms will shift toward the south or southeast around 5 to 15kt before diminishing or moving out of the area around 06Z Fri. Patchy but dense fog may return to the Moreno Valley tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

While critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days, abundant lightning in pockets of dry fuels may continue to result in new fires. Temperatures will also remain at or above normal through at least Saturday (and likely through the next week across eastern NM). Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide today, but storms should increasingly begin to favor areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain Friday through the weekend. As PWATs increase through the period, storms should become more productive in terms of precipitation by the weekend across western NM. Until then, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be the rule. While storms should favor areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain still on Monday, the position of the upper high, and thus the favored area for precipitation, remains in question thereafter.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 65 96 65 / 5 5 0 20 Dulce........................... 91 50 91 54 / 20 20 5 10 Cuba............................ 89 58 89 60 / 10 10 5 30 Gallup.......................... 92 58 92 59 / 20 10 5 20 El Morro........................ 87 56 88 56 / 20 10 30 40 Grants.......................... 90 58 91 59 / 20 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 89 59 89 59 / 20 20 30 30 Magdalena....................... 89 63 88 63 / 20 30 20 20 Datil........................... 86 58 86 58 / 30 20 40 40 Reserve......................... 94 59 93 59 / 20 20 40 40 Glenwood........................ 98 64 97 63 / 20 30 40 40 Chama........................... 84 51 85 53 / 30 20 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 86 61 86 63 / 40 20 30 30 Pecos........................... 86 56 87 58 / 30 30 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 53 84 56 / 30 20 20 20 Red River....................... 73 46 76 49 / 40 30 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 78 39 80 42 / 50 30 40 20 Taos............................ 86 54 88 56 / 30 20 20 20 Mora............................ 82 52 84 54 / 50 40 50 30 Espanola........................ 92 61 93 63 / 20 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 87 60 88 62 / 20 30 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 59 91 61 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 67 94 69 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 67 95 68 / 10 20 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 66 97 67 / 10 20 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 67 95 69 / 10 20 5 20 Belen........................... 97 65 97 66 / 10 20 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 96 66 96 68 / 10 20 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 97 64 97 65 / 10 20 0 20 Corrales........................ 96 66 96 68 / 10 20 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 96 65 96 66 / 10 20 5 20 Placitas........................ 93 65 93 67 / 20 20 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 95 67 95 69 / 10 20 5 20 Socorro......................... 98 69 98 70 / 10 20 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 60 88 63 / 20 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 90 62 90 64 / 20 20 20 20 Edgewood........................ 90 58 91 60 / 20 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 55 92 57 / 20 20 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 86 57 87 60 / 30 30 10 20 Mountainair..................... 89 58 89 61 / 20 30 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 89 58 89 61 / 10 30 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 92 64 90 66 / 20 30 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 83 57 82 59 / 40 40 50 20 Capulin......................... 82 55 86 59 / 30 30 20 20 Raton........................... 85 53 89 55 / 40 30 20 20 Springer........................ 87 54 91 56 / 40 30 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 83 54 86 57 / 50 40 20 20 Clayton......................... 87 62 91 67 / 10 20 5 20 Roy............................. 85 58 88 62 / 20 40 5 10 Conchas......................... 94 64 97 68 / 10 30 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 91 63 93 66 / 10 40 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 94 63 96 68 / 10 30 0 10 Clovis.......................... 93 64 94 68 / 10 30 5 10 Portales........................ 94 65 95 68 / 10 30 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 95 65 96 68 / 10 50 0 20 Roswell......................... 98 69 98 71 / 5 30 5 5 Picacho......................... 92 62 92 64 / 20 30 5 10 Elk............................. 89 59 89 60 / 40 30 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.