textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Storms will increase in coverage today and be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, mainly across central NM.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of far western New Mexico today, then gradually expand back into central and eastern NM through at least Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The backdoor front is currently racing west near the Continental Divide and has resulted in a strong east canyon/gap wind into the RGV. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 3 AM MDT for the middle RGV and the highest gust so far at the Albuquerque Sunport has been 53mph. Low level moisture transport behind the backdoor front will set the stage for a more active day, with greater coverage of convection across central NM. Increasing northerly flow aloft, coupled with veering winds in the lower boundary layer will increase 0-6km bulk shear to 35-40kts and be supportive of strong to severe storms rolling south off of the mountains this afternoon/evening. The SPC has included a marginal risk for severe storms for portions of eastern and central NM today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the South Central Mountains, mainly due to an increased threat for burn scar flash flooding in/near Ruidoso due to both the potential for training storms and elevated rainfall rates expected. The watch is in effect from noon until midnight due to the potential for multiple rounds of convection lasting well past sunset. In addition, there is a moderate to major heat risk across far western NM and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the Northwest and West Central Plateaus. The strong Monsoon high over AZ is forecast to weaken on Sunday, from 600dam to 596dam at 500mb as drier air aloft rotates around the circulation over NM and PWATs begin to decline. This will bring a downtick in daytime heating initiated convection, with a continued moderate to major heat risk across far western NM.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The Monsoon high will weaken further going into Monday down to near 594dam at 500mb, with the upper high centroid shifting east into west central NM. Drier conditions will allow daytime temperatures to rise a couple of degrees across central NM, expanding the moderate to major heat risk east into the ABQ Metro. PWATs will continue a slow downtrend Monday, leading to a more paltry round of convection that will favor southern and eastern areas and be capable of producing strong/erratic wind gusts. More of the same on Tuesday followed by a slow uptrend in PWATs through the end of the week, bringing improved chances for storms as the Monsoon high drifts toward the Four Corners. However, there is some model spread with regard the the strength and position of the Monsoon high by the end of the work week leading lower forecast confidence beyond Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Ongoing convection may impact KROW through 09Z, but conditions are forecast to remain VFR. A backdoor front is racing west toward the Continental Divide and has created a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ, where an Airport Weather Warning is in effect for gusts to 35-40kts through 09Z. Sct/num storms are forecast across central NM Saturday afternoon/evening and will impact the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible with Saturday's round of storms. KROW may get thunderstorm impacts later Saturday evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. Strong high pressure aloft will bring continued hot temperatures to the lower elevations of western NM today, then expand back eastward across central NM going through early week. A backdoor front moved through central NM overnight and will recharge moisture, bringing an uptick in wetting storms this afternoon and evening. Humidity recovery will improve and be good to excellent behind the backdoor front through tonight. Chances for wetting storms will decrease Sun/Mon, then slowly ramp back up from mid through late week as high pressure aloft weakens some.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 100 70 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 95 55 98 56 / 20 5 5 0 Cuba............................ 93 60 94 63 / 10 5 5 5 Gallup.......................... 98 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 93 59 92 61 / 10 5 10 5 Grants.......................... 96 61 95 64 / 5 10 10 0 Quemado......................... 92 63 92 64 / 10 5 10 0 Magdalena....................... 90 64 90 67 / 20 10 20 5 Datil........................... 88 60 88 61 / 20 20 30 5 Reserve......................... 96 60 94 62 / 30 10 20 5 Glenwood........................ 99 64 98 66 / 40 10 30 10 Chama........................... 89 53 90 57 / 50 10 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 90 66 / 50 5 10 5 Pecos........................... 86 56 90 60 / 70 10 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 56 90 61 / 20 10 5 0 Red River....................... 83 47 84 48 / 30 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 40 84 47 / 60 5 30 5 Taos............................ 88 54 92 60 / 20 10 5 0 Mora............................ 83 53 88 56 / 70 10 30 5 Espanola........................ 95 62 97 67 / 20 5 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 89 62 91 66 / 50 5 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 94 64 / 30 5 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 67 97 72 / 30 5 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 66 99 72 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 66 100 71 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 68 99 73 / 30 5 0 0 Belen........................... 99 65 99 70 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 66 100 71 / 30 5 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 98 64 99 70 / 30 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 99 67 100 73 / 30 5 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 66 99 71 / 20 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 65 96 70 / 30 5 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 98 67 99 72 / 30 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 101 69 101 73 / 20 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 59 91 65 / 40 5 20 0 Tijeras......................... 92 61 94 67 / 40 5 20 0 Edgewood........................ 92 56 95 62 / 50 10 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 54 95 59 / 50 20 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 86 56 89 62 / 50 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 92 57 93 63 / 50 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 90 58 89 63 / 60 30 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 92 63 90 67 / 50 50 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 57 84 61 / 70 70 20 5 Capulin......................... 82 54 87 60 / 50 10 0 0 Raton........................... 86 54 92 58 / 30 5 5 0 Springer........................ 87 55 94 58 / 40 10 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 55 90 58 / 60 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 89 62 93 67 / 30 10 0 5 Roy............................. 85 58 90 63 / 60 20 0 0 Conchas......................... 93 63 98 69 / 40 30 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 89 61 94 66 / 40 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 92 63 98 69 / 30 40 0 0 Clovis.......................... 91 64 95 68 / 30 40 0 0 Portales........................ 91 65 96 70 / 20 40 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 92 64 96 69 / 30 40 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 68 98 71 / 20 60 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 63 94 66 / 40 60 5 0 Elk............................. 89 59 90 62 / 60 50 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205.

Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ219.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.