textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Hot temperatures today and Thursday in the lower elevations of New Mexico (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat- related illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling or hydration.

- Dry, breezy, and hot conditions will create near-critical fire weather conditions in northeast New Mexico today.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher Friday, especially over eastern New Mexico. Afternoon storms are likely to continue in eastern New Mexico each afternoon through early next week, with lesser coverage elsewhere.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper low is moving over the MT and Canadian border, pushing a belt of stronger westerlies aloft into the central Rockies. Farther south into NM, the winds are not as strong, but still elevated with drier air accompanying the westerly flow. A lee-side surface trough is also starting to develop in southeastern CO, helping surface winds to veer a bit more westerly this afternoon with breezy to locally windy speeds. The strongest gusts of 25 to 35 mph will tend to stay over the northern tier of counties, and especially over the high terrain this afternoon. This will continue to push the low layer moisture in eastern NM farther east which will impede our storm chances. Otherwise, warm to hot temperatures are being observed with lots of 90's and 100's.

The aforementioned upper low along the Canadian border will trek farther east on Thursday, but a trailing shortwave trough will drop in behind it and sag into the central Rockies early in the day before shifting into the central plains by the afternoon. An associated backdoor front will get sent southward, entering northeastern NM. This will shove the would-be lee-side surface trough farther southwest into the interior of NM late Thursday. This front will cool temperatures by a few to several degrees in northeastern NM, however remaining areas will remain dry and hot. Strong considerations were give to a Heat Advisory for Thursday in the Rio Grande valley and Pecos valley, but current forecast readings are running just shy of criteria. Still, heat impacts will be present with a risk of heat related illnesses. As for winds, the northern zones will observe the highest gusts of generally 15 to 30 mph, from the northeast in northeastern zones, and from the west elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The backdoor surface front will make considerable headway southwestward Thursday night into Friday morning. It should reach the Rio Grande valley during the evening and push just beyond the Continental Divide by Friday morning. A gusty canyon wind will develop downwind (west) of the vulnerable gaps within the central mountain chain. The pressure gradient maximizes around 12/0600UTC at about 5 to 6 mb between ABQ and SXU. This would suggest gusts of 35 to 45 mph in ABQ, although the MAV guidance has been a bit stronger for a few cycles. Synoptic models continue to initialize some showers and storms near the Red River valley of TX where the front will converge with the moist return flow off of the Gulf, but this is still modeled to stay east of NM through Friday morning. Batches of low layer stratus would be more likely to enter eastern NM amid the moisture advection, and a few sprinkles or drizzle cannot be ruled out early Friday morning. The bigger impact will likely be the increase in convective potential over eastern NM Friday afternoon due to the abrupt rises in dewpoints. PWATs will reach 1.0 to 1.2 inches over much of eastern NM, and while increases will also be observed in the middle to lower Rio Grande valley, the values will be more modest between 0.6 to 0.9 inch. Surface winds would veer more southeasterly by Friday afternoon while westerly winds aloft weaken. Sufficient instability and directional shear could yield a few marginally severe storms Friday afternoon and evening, most likely over the central mountain chain, with a Flash Flood risk introduced over the Ruidoso burn scars.

Storm chances would continue into Saturday with the highest confidence along and east of the central mountain chain where low layer moisture would be better rooted. However, there are indications that mid level moisture could increase over southwestern zones from the Gulf of CA and subtropical origins farther south, and this could increase chances for storms, perhaps of a drier and less rain-efficient variety. The steering flow would be quite low on Saturday with westerlies temporarily retreating northward and a subtropical high briefly appearing to our south. This low steering flow regime would imply slow-moving storms and hefty rain where moisture is better rooted and storms are able to initialize.

On Sunday and Monday, the westerlies quickly make their presence known again, sending shortwave troughs out of the central Rockies into northeastern NM. Backdoor cold fronts would be associated with these features, entering eastern NM and recharging the moisture while also introducing directional shear for strong to severe cells. Northwesterlies aloft would persist into Tuesday as a high starts elongating over CA/NV/AZ, and this would keep the door open to subsequent shortwaves as the moisture stays mostly entrenched over the eastern half of NM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Mostly clear skies are in place across northern and central New Mexico with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will turn breezy this afternoon in most areas with the northern tier of New Mexico turning windier with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Surface winds will start to decrease in speed this evening, but a jet streak aloft in the mid levels of the atmosphere will dip down into New Mexico tonight through early Thursday morning, producing low level wind shear at some central terminals. Meanwhile, the low level jet in the eastern plains could introduce its own low level wind shear from the south overnight before dispersing late Thursday morning. Breeziness will redevelop over northern New Mexico Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong westerly winds aloft are over CO with speeds a bit lower into NM. Still, breezy to windy conditions are developing this afternoon, especially over northern zones where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will occur through the evening. These gusts along with the drier westerly component and falling RH are leading to spotty to marginally-critical conditions over northern NM this afternoon.

A backdoor cold front will enter northeastern NM on Thursday, leading to breezy to windy conditions while offering slight temperature/humidity relief there. Breezy to windy conditions will also be found in other northern NM zones, only they will be from the west. With gusts reaching 30 to 35 mph, these northern zones will again observe a couple hours of marginally-critical conditions Thursday afternoon.

Into Thursday night and early Friday morning, the backdoor front will spill into the Rio Grande valley with gap/canyon winds gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Otherwise, the moisture accompanying the front will be significant, leading to a notable increase in thunderstorm chances in the days ahead. The moisture would be rooted over most of the eastern half of NM where the prospects for wetting rain would be highest, however modest moisture gains between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain would also likely lead to the development of storms, just of a drier variety that may include a few dry thunderstorms posing a risk of new lightning ignitions. This will essentially be the theme going through the weekend into early next week, but a couple of disturbances aloft and associated backdoor fronts would help enhance storms, especially Sunday and Monday. Prevailing wind concerns during this time frame would be mostly driven by the backdoor fronts entering eastern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 91 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 45 88 44 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 49 90 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 53 92 53 90 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 52 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 59 91 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 54 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 48 95 52 94 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 53 98 54 97 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 45 81 44 82 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 60 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 54 90 52 84 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 85 49 84 / 0 0 0 10 Red River....................... 41 77 40 77 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 31 80 33 80 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 51 88 50 87 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 52 86 48 81 / 0 0 0 40 Espanola........................ 54 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 57 89 57 85 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 93 55 88 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 95 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 96 66 91 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 98 60 94 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 97 63 92 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 60 99 61 95 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 60 97 62 93 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 57 97 59 94 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 61 98 62 93 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 59 97 60 94 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 62 93 62 90 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 63 96 63 92 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 65 100 67 97 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 89 58 85 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 59 91 59 87 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 57 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 93 53 87 / 0 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 56 88 54 82 / 0 0 0 20 Mountainair..................... 57 92 56 87 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 57 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 30 Carrizozo....................... 65 95 64 90 / 0 0 0 40 Ruidoso......................... 54 89 54 80 / 0 0 0 70 Capulin......................... 52 78 46 80 / 0 0 0 20 Raton........................... 52 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 53 89 50 86 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 89 51 81 / 0 0 0 30 Clayton......................... 62 84 54 84 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 58 86 53 81 / 0 0 0 20 Conchas......................... 61 96 60 89 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 61 96 60 86 / 0 0 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 67 96 62 91 / 0 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 67 98 64 88 / 0 0 5 20 Portales........................ 68 100 65 90 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 64 100 63 90 / 0 0 0 20 Roswell......................... 68 103 69 92 / 0 0 0 30 Picacho......................... 64 97 62 85 / 0 0 0 50 Elk............................. 62 94 60 83 / 0 0 0 70

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.