textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1111 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record heat continues through Thursday with a minor risk of heat-related illness for sensitive groups.

- Risk for rapid fire spread along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon. Dry lightning from virga and dry thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico this weekend may cause new fire starts.

- Hazardous crosswinds for large vehicles push across eastern NM Thursday night before moving through the canyon gaps of the central mountain chain Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Record breaking warmth will continue areawide today and Thursday as a summer-like ridge of high pressure persists over the forecast area and humidities plummet. The 500 mb pressure height is still forecast to peak around 591 dam over the NM bootheel this morning, then high temperatures should climax across the forecast area today and Thursday around 20-30 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. If Roswell reaches our forecast high of 101 F on Thursday, it will break its record for the earliest 100 degree day, which was set on April 18, 2025. Multiple other locations may also reach their record warmest March readings today and Thursday.

Critical fire weather conditions will develop on Thursday as humidities bottom out in the single digits almost areawide, and as wind speeds strengthen in response to an upper level trough passing eastward over the CO/NM border. Further, a lee-side surface trough south of a ~994 mb surface low on the northeast NM/southeast CO border will help to produce west and northwest wind gusts up to 45 mph along and east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains Thursday afternoon, where the greatest risk of rapid fire spread will exist.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A gusty backdoor cold front will dive southwestward through the forecast area Thursday night and Friday driven by a ~1039 mb surface high on the upper Great Plains and a deepening surface trough off the southwest US coast. Northeast wind gusts from 40-50 mph will be common on the eastern plains Thursday night into Friday morning, except for gusts around 60 mph along the TX border south of I-40. The front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain around 4 or 5 AM Friday with a strong east wind below canyons. Gusts should peak in the central valley on Friday from Santa Fe southward with speeds from 35 to 50 mph, except below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque where MOS is coming into better agreement on gusts around 60 mph. Cool air advection behind the front will send temperatures plummeting around 30 to 40 degrees across the eastern plains on Friday below Thursday's readings, and a few to 25 degrees farther west. High temperatures now look to rebound everywhere except along the AZ border on Saturday, when high temperatures will vary from near average on the southeast plains to as much as 16 degrees above the averages from Chama to Gallup.

Humidities will continue to increase over western NM Saturday through Tuesday, and farther east as well starting Monday, as the mid-level high pressure center aloft retreats over the Gulf coast and a series of disturbances cross the Rocky Mountains. Driven by the increased Gulf moisture behind Friday's backdoor front, isolated and gusty virga showers, and perhaps a few dry thunderstorms, should begin to develop mainly west of the Rio Grande Saturday afternoon and evening. The first in a series of disturbances will then cross the forecast area from the southwest Sunday and Sunday night spreading virga showers and dry thunderstorms eastward to the central mountain chain and perhaps onto the northeast plains. Models vary greatly on how much PWATs will rise due to increasing subtropical moisture with the passing disturbances, but there is a chance that small wetting footprints will begin to develop as early as Sunday afternoon and evening along the continental divide and in the northern mountains. With more disturbances crossing in southwest flow aloft, daily rounds of isolated to widely scattered virga showers and mainly dry thunderstorms look to continue mostly during the afternoon and evening Monday and Tuesday. Stronger virga showers and dry storms Saturday through Tuesday will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief periods of blowing dust at lower elevations, and potentially some new fire starts. Southwest winds are also forecast to become increasingly gusty with each day starting Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR prevails as generally light winds continue thru this afternoon. There will be a period of LLWS over east-central and southeastern terminals from KROW to KCVN and KTCC this evening to just past 06Z. Confidence was not high enough just yet to include at KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Will continue the Fire Weather Watch along and east of the central mountain chain for Thursday. Models vary on how strong the surface winds will blow Thursday afternoon, so we will let the day shift decide where to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning. The most confident area for a Red Flag Warning at this time is along and east of the Northeast and Central Highlands.

There will be a few hours of locally critical fire weather conditions on the Northwest Plateau Friday afternoon just ahead of and along the backdoor cold front. Humidities will then quickly climb above 20 percent once the front passes.

The risk of dry lightning will begin to increase over the western mountains and continental divide starting Saturday, then spread eastward to the central mountain chain and northeast plains Sunday, and onto the eastern plains as well Monday and Tuesday. Minimum humidities Saturday through Tuesday should generally vary from 12 to 22 percent with the lowest readings on the eastern plains. An exception will be Tuesday, when humidities will climb over 25 percent across the northwest third of the fire weather forecast area. Models depict a potential strong wind event toward the middle of next week as an upper level trough crosses the central and southern Rockies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 87 48 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 37 78 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 83 44 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 85 36 78 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 82 43 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 87 40 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 84 42 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 85 51 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 82 47 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 37 86 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 92 42 90 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 78 40 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 82 54 77 47 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 84 48 79 40 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 48 75 39 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 72 45 66 33 / 10 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 78 34 73 24 / 10 5 0 0 Taos............................ 85 39 80 36 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 82 48 79 36 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 90 45 85 41 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 52 80 46 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 48 82 43 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 57 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 53 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 51 90 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 53 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 92 47 90 42 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 92 54 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 92 46 90 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 92 53 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 92 48 90 44 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 87 57 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 91 53 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 94 53 93 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 53 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 85 53 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 87 49 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 43 83 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 85 49 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 87 51 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 51 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 90 54 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 85 56 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 82 48 83 31 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 86 43 85 34 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 88 42 87 38 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 85 48 83 38 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 89 56 94 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 87 49 90 38 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 94 49 96 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 91 50 90 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 95 54 99 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 96 55 99 43 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 97 53 99 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 49 97 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 53 100 51 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 54 94 45 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 92 52 92 41 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ104-122>126.