textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026 - Thunderstorms producing cloud-to-ground lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and brief downpours will favor the eastern plains this afternoon, where there is a marginal risk of severe weather closer to New Mexico's eastern border.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread mainly over western areas midday through through early this evening.

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the continental divide Tuesday through Thursday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, brief downpours, and flash flooding below recent burn scars. Some cells west of the central mountain chain will produce gusty winds with little rain and a risk of new fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1252 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level low pressure system will slowly exit northeastward from CA today, cross UT tonight, then reach WY by Saturday. It started strengthening south and southwest flow over western and central NM yesterday, and will continue to strengthen southwest flow aloft statewide today. By late afternoon, southwest surface wind gusts will peak in the 30-40 mph range from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, except for gusts up to 45 mph around Gallup. Humidities will also plummet from 9-15 percent west of the central mountain chain with locally critical fire weather conditions, except for more widespread critical fire weather conditions along and west of the continental divide. As a result, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for western zones from 12-8 PM MDT today.

Meanwhile, a disturbance will continue to spark widely-scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on the eastern plains this morning as it finishes passing northeastward over the state. The dry southwest winds will then push through the eastern plains this afternoon with a dryline that will trigger scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. A few cells may develop as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon. With 30-40 KT of 0-6 KM bulk shear, and surface based CAPE around 1000-2200 J/KG, some storms on the far eastern plains may turn severe this afternoon by producing large hail and/or damaging winds. The dry air is forecast to make swift progress northeastward, causing storms to exit NM's far eastern plains by 6 PM, or so.

Tonight through Sunday, very dry air will remain entrenched over the forecast area as southwest flow over the state trends gradually weaker. Nonetheless, a surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies will produce southwest wind gusts up to 40 mph on the east central and northeast plains Saturday afternoon. With humidities in the single digits across all but the highest mountain peaks Saturday afternoon, there will be a risk of rapid fire spread on the plains; however, this risk will be mitigated by greenup occurring as a result of rainfall over the past week.

Otherwise, high temperatures will vary from near to around 8 degrees below 1991-2020 averages today and Saturday, then climb near to around 7 degrees above average on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1252 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Gulf moisture will begin working its way over eastern parts of the forecast area Sunday night and Monday, then progress over western areas as well Monday night and Tuesday as a fairly weak upper level trough deepens over CA. The latest version of the NBM keeps NM's weather dry Monday, but the operational runs of the GFS, European, and Canadian Models all depict showers and thunderstorms developing on the eastern plains Monday afternoon and evening, and potentially as far west as the south-central mountains. Given the run-to-run and between-model consistency of these models, and good agreement on the timing of the return flow, the NBM (and our forecast grids) will most likely begin depicting storms over eastern NM on Monday in the next forecast run or two.

The upper trough is then forecast to drift slowly eastward over NM as the week progresses, with daily rounds of scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring locations along and east of the continental divide, and spottier activity farther west. With PWATs generally varying around 0.80-1.25" over southern and eastern parts of the forecast area during the middle of next week, Tuesday through Thursday rain amounts over southern parts of the forecast area, and along and east of the central mountain chain, should generally vary from 0.25-1.25", with locally higher amounts that could exceed 3.0". As a result, we will probably see the risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars increase starting Tuesday, then continue each afternoon and evening for the remainder of the work week. High temperatures will probably peak on Monday from near to around 8 degrees above 30-year averages, then trend cooler as the Gulf moisture moves in.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, although brief MVFR conditions are possible with isolated thunderstorms across far eastern NM this afternoon and early evening. Southwest winds will continue to trend up through the afternoon hours, with gusts reaching up to between 35-45kts across western NM. An Airport Weather Warning will be issued for KABQ shortly. Winds will turn to the west and decrease behind a weak Pacific front this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Minimum humidities west of the central mountain chain will plummet near and below 15 percent daily through Tuesday, then trend upward there Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some locally critical fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley today, but the most widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast along and west of the continental divide, where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect as ERCs climb near the 70th percentile. Unfortunately, the area from Gallup to Farmington and Dulce is likely to miss out on the wetting precip that the remainder of the forecast area will enjoy Tuesday through Thursday. Also, wetting precip may be pretty spotty in the middle Rio Grande Valley, northwest, and west central mountains midweek. Further, the western perimeter of the Gulf moisture will probably see some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms in the mix each afternoon and early evening during the middle of next week.

Along and east of the central mountain chain, humidities will remain above 15 percent today, then plummet near and below 15 percent Saturday, Sunday, and to a lesser extent Monday as Gulf moisture begins moving in from the southeast. ERCs on Saturday across eastern areas are forecast to vary from 40th-60th percentiles, so the dry downslope wind gusts up to 40 mph that afternoon aren't as concerning as they would have been a week ago; especially with the greenup that is likely occurring due to recent rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 83 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 38 72 33 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 77 40 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 77 37 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 75 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 80 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 76 41 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 80 38 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 42 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 72 36 67 34 / 5 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 76 49 73 49 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 77 44 74 43 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 43 70 42 / 5 5 0 0 Red River....................... 64 37 61 33 / 10 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 69 32 65 29 / 20 10 0 0 Taos............................ 76 44 73 39 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 74 44 73 41 / 20 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 83 48 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 77 47 75 50 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 53 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 88 51 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 87 49 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 88 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 87 50 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 82 54 78 53 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 86 54 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 50 74 49 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 82 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 82 48 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 43 78 39 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 77 47 74 45 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 80 48 77 45 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 48 77 46 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 56 80 56 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 51 75 52 / 10 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 71 44 76 41 / 20 20 0 0 Raton........................... 76 44 80 40 / 20 20 0 0 Springer........................ 78 46 81 41 / 20 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 47 75 42 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 78 52 84 50 / 20 10 0 0 Roy............................. 76 49 81 46 / 20 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 55 88 49 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 81 55 84 48 / 20 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 56 90 50 / 30 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 57 88 53 / 30 10 0 0 Portales........................ 86 58 90 52 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 55 88 50 / 30 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 91 59 94 55 / 10 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 55 86 53 / 10 5 0 0 Elk............................. 84 53 83 51 / 10 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-109.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205.