textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026 - There is a moderate 30% to 60% risk of thunderstorms producing strong and erratic wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph early this evening, particularly along and south of Interstate 40. - There is a moderate 30% to 60% risk of fog with areas of low visibility Wednesday morning, especially across east central to northeastern.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1223 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Today is featuring another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring the eastern two-thirds of NM lasting into the evening. There is a minor risk of some of the stronger more rain efficient thunderstorms producing a flash flooding risk over eastern NM, notably over already rain soaked areas yesterday. The larger scale synoptic picture features a 550dm H5 low over northern CA with a weak upper level disturbance leached out from the H5's low southeastern periphery over NM. There remains abundant boundary layer moisture across the Land of Enchantment this hour, highlighted by Td's ranging from the 40s along and west of the Continental Divide, 50s within the central valley areas, to low 60s toward the TX line. GOES satellite imagery features a building cu field through western NM where there is clear mid-to-upper level skies, with less convective potential currently being realized over eastern NM given the broken to overcast cloud shield over eastern NM acting to limit diurnal heating and destabilization of the surface boundary layer. There is an exception encroaching into east-central NM near Clovis from a meso-low that spun near and southwest of Lubbock earlier this morning. Localized heavier rainfall northeast of Clovis will make its way into portions of Curry and Quay Counties over the next couple hours into the early afternoon period. Otherwise, this afternoon's thunderstorm activity will feature isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and west of the Rio Grande Valley producing more widespread erratic and gusty winds from outflows. With low-level moisture being scoured out, surface Td depressions will again climb in turn yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE. This will increase the chances for strong gusty winds reaching the 40-50mph range in these areas this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage will favor initiation along the east slopes of the central mountain chain over the next couple hours before steadily expanding and tracking eastward over the plains toward TX. Localized heavy rainfall from this activity will bring a minor risk 5% to 15% of flash flooding over portions of eastern NM, notably over rain soaked areas along the western edge of the Caprock that saw ~2" totals Monday and Monday night. There is a marginal risk for a couple thunderstorms to become strong to severe, notably over far southern Chaves County where 1200-1700 J/kg of SBCAPE will lay. However, 0- 6km bulk shear is lacking, only expected to be 20-25kts. Any of these stronger storms will be short-lived and pulsy in nature.

Convective activity steadily wanes this evening, becoming lighter and confined in nature to northeastern NM to start the day Wednesday. While low level moisture will have been scoured out thru the Rio Grande Valley, enough will remain across eastern NM tonight to allow for patchy fog to develop. Some locations through east- central NM have a fair chance to see more widespread fog development, reducing visibility on area highways for the Wednesday morning commute. Wednesday will see only a slight encroachment of the H5 low over northern CA to central CA. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft will thus remain west of the region with the remnants of the upper level disturbance over southeastern CO and the OK Panhandle. This will move the afternoon crop of thunderstorms to areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Caprock in east-central NM from Tucumcari to Clovis as well. Drier conditions will spread elsewhere over the forecast area. Low-level moisture from convective activity will push west to or just thru the gaps of the central mountain chain Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1223 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Thursday again sees an all to familiar two-faced moisture setup across the state. Low-level moisture along and east of the central mountain chain underlying modest southerly to southwesterly flow aloft will yield scattered afternoon convective initiation along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Interestingly, both the GFS and NAM12 solutions feature CI over Lincoln County that backtracks southeastward into the oncoming low-level return flow from the Gulf. Secondary convective initiation later in the afternoon within this flow will be possible over portions of east- central and southeastern NM Thursday afternoon from Clovis to Roswell southward.

Thereafter, global numerical model guidance features good agreement that a vortmax within the southern periphery of the 562-568dm H5 low over NV/UT swings over AZ/NM Friday. This will favor a sharpening dryline feature over highlands just east of the central mountain chain Friday afternoon. Scattered convective initiation will favor this sharpening dryline feature, with the setup favorable for at least some isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity over eastern NM. Drier southwesterly to westerly winds advance eastward toward TX this weekend, shutting down afternoon thunderstorm activity. Low level moisture to the east will attempt to retake eastern NM early next week, in turn increasing precipitation chances again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

For the remainder of tonight and into Wednesday morning, light to moderate rain will continue over northeast and east central areas. Isolated embedded thunderstorms are also expected. Flight categories will vary from MVFR to IFR there in precipitation, low clouds, and areas of fog. Patchy fog will extend west and southwestward to the central mountain chain, and there will be smaller probabilities of patchy fog development in the upper Rio Grande Valley, around Chama and Dulce, and also in the Valles Caldera of the Jemez Mountains. As fog dissipates around mid morning Wednesday, the precip shield over eastern NM will shrink closer to the CO and OK borders. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will then redevelop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday afternoon, with isolated activity east of the Sandia, Manzano, and Sacramento Mountains. Meanwhile, west of the central mountain chain, south and southwest winds will become gusty Wednesday afternoon with the strongest gusts reaching around 30 knots near Socorro, Gallup, and Zuni.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

No fire weather concerns today. Elevated to locally and short-lived critical conditions return to areas along and west of the Continental Divide Wednesday thru Friday alongside drier westerly winds. Abundant moisture remains across eastern NM with scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity there today, trending lower each day through the weekend. Drier westerlies advance to the TX border this weekend, expanding areas of elevated to locally short-lived critical that will clearly be limited from expected ensuing greenup of finer fuels through eastern NM later this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 85 50 88 / 5 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 36 80 39 83 / 10 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 41 76 45 79 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 37 79 39 82 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 41 77 44 79 / 5 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 39 80 41 82 / 10 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 41 77 44 80 / 5 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 48 77 51 79 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 75 46 77 / 5 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 38 81 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 85 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 36 73 38 76 / 20 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 49 74 52 78 / 10 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 42 75 44 78 / 20 10 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 72 45 76 / 30 10 5 10 Red River....................... 36 64 37 69 / 30 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 33 67 34 72 / 40 30 20 30 Taos............................ 40 75 41 80 / 20 5 0 5 Mora............................ 41 70 43 75 / 30 50 10 50 Espanola........................ 47 82 49 86 / 20 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 48 76 51 80 / 10 5 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 80 49 84 / 10 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 82 57 86 / 10 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 83 56 87 / 10 0 0 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 86 50 89 / 10 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 84 54 87 / 10 0 0 10 Belen........................... 46 85 49 89 / 5 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 51 84 54 88 / 20 0 0 20 Bosque Farms.................... 45 85 48 88 / 5 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 51 85 54 89 / 20 0 0 20 Los Lunas....................... 47 85 49 88 / 5 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 52 80 55 84 / 10 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 51 84 53 87 / 20 0 0 20 Socorro......................... 52 87 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 78 51 80 / 10 0 10 20 Tijeras......................... 47 79 50 81 / 10 0 5 20 Edgewood........................ 44 80 47 82 / 10 5 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 81 43 83 / 10 5 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 44 75 46 77 / 20 20 10 30 Mountainair..................... 43 79 46 82 / 10 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 44 77 48 81 / 5 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 50 80 53 84 / 5 0 0 30 Ruidoso......................... 46 74 48 76 / 10 10 5 60 Capulin......................... 41 61 41 72 / 70 80 40 30 Raton........................... 44 68 43 77 / 60 60 40 20 Springer........................ 45 70 44 79 / 50 60 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 44 72 45 75 / 30 30 20 20 Clayton......................... 48 66 48 77 / 70 80 50 20 Roy............................. 46 69 46 76 / 50 40 40 10 Conchas......................... 49 78 50 83 / 40 20 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 47 76 49 80 / 40 20 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 50 79 51 85 / 40 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 50 81 53 85 / 30 20 20 10 Portales........................ 50 82 52 86 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 49 80 52 84 / 30 20 20 5 Roswell......................... 52 84 57 87 / 10 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 47 80 52 82 / 10 20 10 20 Elk............................. 44 81 49 82 / 10 10 10 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.