textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 436 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Strong to potentially damaging westerly winds for eastern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday. Dangerous travel may occur for high-profile vehicles with areas of blowing dust creating low visibility at times.

- Periods of mountain snow and blowing snow across western and north central New Mexico Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Slick and hazardous travel may occur with strong winds, blowing snow, and low visibility at times. Snow may spread to a larger area of northern and central New Mexico by Friday.

- There is an increasing threat for rapid fire spread across eastern New Mexico Monday through Thursday (peaking Tuesday) and portions of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley mainly Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

The latest water vapor imagery shows a deep Pacific storm system off the CA coastline with an impressive plume of subtropical moisture moving into the southwest CONUS. High clouds will thicken and lower across NM today while winds aloft strengthen ahead of an approaching 170kt speed max. Southwest wind gusts of 30-35 mph will be common over northeast NM with downslope flow forcing max temps 15 to 25F above normal for mid February. Ridge top winds will start howling tonight as the upper jet max approaches and surface low pressure deepens along the Front Range. Min temps will remain well above normal with continued southwest breezes overnight.

A complex, multi-hazard impact period will unfold Tuesday as the 540dm H5 Pacific low fills and ejects an intense shortwave trough rapidly eastward into NM. High winds may begin before sunrise in Ruidoso and High Wind Warnings may need to start earlier than the current watch period. Elsewhere across eastern NM, confidence is moderate to high for southwest to west wind gusts of 60-70 mph to develop quickly after sunrise Tuesday. The High Wind Watch will likely be upgraded to a warning later this morning while other Wind Advisories are added to surrounding areas. Meanwhile, an area of snow with blowing snow will develop over northern and western NM as a Pacific cold front surges thru the state. Model trends are still hinting at a farther south and east progression of the rain/snow with several hours of winter impacts along the Cont Divide and the northern mts. Orographics will be able to enhance a burst of heavy snow on west-facing slopes of the northern mts. The combo of high winds, snow, and blowing snow may actually lead to more significant winter impacts compared to the wind. As such, A Winter Storm Watch has been added to the San Juan/Tusas Mts and the High Wind Watch for the high terrain zones of the Sangre de Cristo Mts was converted to a Winter Storm Watch. Snowfall totals may only reach 2 to 6" but impacts in a 12-hr window may produce more issues with travel and low visibility compared to the wind. There will be further debate on Winter Wx Advisories vs. Wind Advisories for other areas along the Cont Divide for Tuesday. Temps will also be falling behind the Pacific cold front with unpleasant wind chills by the afternoon in the high terrain.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

A break in the wind is expected Tuesday night (except perhaps high peaks) while snow ends across the northern mts. This will allow for a gap in the hazard window before another intense shortwave upper level trough ejects thru the southern Rockies Wednesday. NBM probs still show widespread 60-90% chance of peak wind gusts >50 mph with areas along the central mt chain showing high probs for >60 mph. Another band of snow will enter northern and western NM along a strong Pacific cold front. A few more inches are likely along west- facing slopes. The timing of the second Pacific frontal passage with intense jet stream winds aloft may allow strong winds to continue for much of the night along and east of the central mt chain. This will lead to yet another complex evolution of wind vs. winter wx hazards thru Thursday afternoon. Temps will trend cooler Wednesday and even colder on Thursday.

The last upper level shortwave trough of the week is looking even deeper and wetter Friday. Some model guidance is now showing a cold and wet closed low passing thru southern NM with widespread snow over northern, central, and western NM. This system may also have more strong winds along with a backdoor cold front over northeast NM. Trends will be monitored with this storm system but there is already a lot of hazardous weather thru Thursday. Folks planning travel across the region should be prepared for several periods of hazardous crosswinds, blowing dust, snow, and blowing snow.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

High clouds will thicken over the region today with strengthening flow aloft and increasing high level turbulence. Wind gusts of 25 to 35kt will be common over western and eastern NM between 1pm and 8pm. Winds will decrease for a few hours this evening with a period of partial clearing. Southwest winds will then strengthen after midnight with strong LLWS developing in all areas. The first rain/snow showers will move into far western NM around sunrise Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL UNFOLD THIS WEEK OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

A prolonged period of critical fire weather will begin today with increasing southwest winds over northeast NM. Max temps will be 15 to 25F above normal areawide with min RH falling to near 15%. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the northeast highlands today. The Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for eastern NM. Southwest to west winds will be very strong with widespread gusts of 60 to 70 mph by the afternoon. Min RH will be borderline critical in many areas however any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly in receptive fuels. There will be some accumulating snow as well in the northern and western high terrain. Another day of strong west winds is likely Wednesday with even lower min RH values over eastern NM. Another set of Fire Weather Watches will likely be issued for eastern NM during this period. Yet another period of light snow is expected over the northern and western high terrain Wednesday and Wednesday night. West winds will likely stay elevated all night Wednesday night before strong winds spread to more of eastern NM again Thursday. Min RH values look a little more marginal again but rapid fire spread is still possible given the strength of the winds expected. By Friday, a more well-defined winter storm may sweep across the region with colder air, more wind, and light to moderate snow over a larger area of northern, central, and western NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 37 49 31 / 5 70 80 30 Dulce........................... 61 30 45 24 / 5 60 100 70 Cuba............................ 58 33 46 24 / 0 20 90 20 Gallup.......................... 61 32 44 26 / 0 50 80 5 El Morro........................ 61 33 42 22 / 0 20 80 0 Grants.......................... 66 35 48 23 / 0 10 80 0 Quemado......................... 62 36 46 24 / 0 10 80 0 Magdalena....................... 66 41 53 28 / 0 5 50 0 Datil........................... 63 36 46 24 / 0 5 60 0 Reserve......................... 64 36 50 25 / 0 30 80 0 Glenwood........................ 68 40 54 28 / 0 40 80 0 Chama........................... 54 27 38 20 / 5 50 90 60 Los Alamos...................... 58 37 45 26 / 0 10 80 20 Pecos........................... 61 36 46 23 / 0 5 80 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 33 41 23 / 0 10 80 30 Red River....................... 49 27 33 18 / 0 10 90 30 Angel Fire...................... 57 30 41 18 / 0 10 80 30 Taos............................ 61 35 47 23 / 0 10 70 20 Mora............................ 65 37 47 22 / 0 5 60 10 Espanola........................ 65 39 54 26 / 0 10 50 20 Santa Fe........................ 59 37 47 25 / 0 10 80 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 38 51 25 / 0 10 60 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 42 55 30 / 0 5 60 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 43 57 30 / 0 5 50 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 43 59 30 / 0 5 40 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 42 57 29 / 0 5 50 0 Belen........................... 70 43 61 29 / 0 5 40 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 42 58 29 / 0 5 60 0 Bosque Farms.................... 69 43 59 29 / 0 5 40 0 Corrales........................ 68 42 59 29 / 0 5 50 0 Los Lunas....................... 69 43 59 29 / 0 5 40 0 Placitas........................ 64 42 53 29 / 0 10 70 5 Rio Rancho...................... 66 41 57 29 / 0 5 50 0 Socorro......................... 73 45 64 29 / 0 5 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 39 49 27 / 0 10 80 5 Tijeras......................... 61 40 51 28 / 0 5 80 5 Edgewood........................ 65 40 52 25 / 0 5 60 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 39 54 23 / 0 5 40 0 Clines Corners.................. 62 39 49 25 / 0 0 30 0 Mountainair..................... 64 41 55 26 / 0 0 40 0 Gran Quivira.................... 65 41 56 27 / 0 0 30 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 46 59 31 / 0 0 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 64 42 51 31 / 0 0 10 0 Capulin......................... 67 39 54 26 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 68 37 54 25 / 0 0 30 5 Springer........................ 72 41 58 27 / 0 0 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 67 41 52 25 / 0 0 30 0 Clayton......................... 74 48 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 44 60 27 / 0 0 5 0 Conchas......................... 78 50 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 49 63 32 / 0 0 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 52 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 76 49 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 78 50 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 75 48 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 79 46 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 49 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 76 47 63 34 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ212-215-223-226>240.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ104-123- 126.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for NMZ210.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for NMZ213-214.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ123.