textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain will continue until 7 PM MST this evening, then return to the same area with a risk of rapid fire spread late Friday morning through the afternoon.

- Late tonight into Friday, hazardous wind gusts up to 50 mph will blow around unsecured objects and create strong crosswinds along and just east of the south central mountains. Friday morning through the afternoon, west and northwest wind crosswinds will also reach 50 mph across parts of east central and northeast New Mexico.

- Late tonight through Friday evening, rain and snow showers will produce wet roads near the Colorado border along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with a few inches of snow accumulation in the Tusas Mountains.

- Monday and Tuesday, rain and high terrain snow will probably create more wet travel mainly in locations south of I-40.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1225 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

An upper level trough will sweep eastward through CO tonight through Friday evening producing rain and snow showers near the CO border. Under an inch of snow is forecast from Dulce to Chama with a few inches in the Tusas Mountains above Chama. The storm system will steer the polar jet stream over south central and eastern parts of the forecast area late tonight and Friday with strong winds. A mountain wave looks to set up over the south central mountains late tonight with southwest wind gusts up to 50 mph from Ruidoso to Dunken. The strong winds will spread to the central and northeast highlands and east central plains on Friday morning, but the wind direction will shift out of the west and northwest with the passage of a blustery Pacific cold front. A ~999 mb surface low over southeast CO will drop to 994 mb as it gradually shifts over western KS on Friday, while 700 mb wind speeds peak from 40-55 KT from south central to east central NM. Wind speeds will begin to weaken during late afternoon as the speed max aloft begins to exit the state. There is a good chance that the night shift will hoist a few additional Wind Advisories around the periphery of the ongoing Advisories for eastern areas.

Otherwise, high temperatures on Friday will fall around 8 to 16 degrees compared to today's readings. Low temperatures mostly in the teens and 20s are then forecast Friday night. Very dry conditions Friday afternoon will combine with the strong winds and dry fuels to create critical fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain on Friday with a risk of rapid fire spread.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Additional shortwave energy will dive southward through the base of the exiting upper level trough Friday and Friday night forming a closed upper level low pressure system over AZ, which will then retrograde southwestward over the upper Baja Peninsula by Saturday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will also dive southwestward through eastern areas Friday night and through gaps in the central mountain chain on Saturday with a modestly gusty east canyon wind in the central valley. This will cause high temperatures on the plains to fall as much as 9 additional degrees on Saturday compared to Friday, while readings rebound over central and especially western parts of the forecast area. The warming trend will spread to the east as well starting Sunday with high temperatures early next week climbing a few to around 18 degrees above 1991-2020 averages.

Ensemble cluster analysis indicates models are in good agreement on the Baja low ejecting east and/or northeastward on Monday. The system is forecast to draw a combination of elevated Pacific moisture and low level Gulf moisture over southern NM with rain showers, mountains snow showers, and some high plains thunderstorms mostly over the southern half of the forecast area late Monday through Tuesday. At this time, rain amounts only look to reach around a tenth of an inch over southern parts of the forecast area, with a quarter inch or so of rain and liquid equivalent moisture over the southern tier of mountains (equating to a few inches of snow). Some models suggest the upper low may open into a trough and shift northeastward across east central and northeast New Mexico, potentially spreading accumulating precip farther north across the eastern plains. Temperatures will briefly cool over northern and central NM on Tuesday as cloud cover and precip become more widespread, but highs should remain a few to around 12 degrees above 30-year averages.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Southwest winds will gust up to 30 KT in many locations today, except up to 40 KT along NM's western border, and up to 45 KT from Ruidoso to Duncan and from Las Vegas to Raton and Clayton. An upper level trough will swing through the central Rockies producing rain and snow showers, as well as mountain obscurations, along the CO/NM border late tonight through Friday. Up to an inch of snow accumulation is expected from Dulce to Chama. After weaker winds tonight, a gusty Pacific cold front will shift the wind direction out of the west and northwest as it crosses on Friday morning through midday. Also on Friday, winds will be stronger than those observed today along and east of the central mountain chain with strong wind gusts starting during the late night hours around AXX and SRR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning east of the central mountain chain for Friday. Humidities will drop into the single digits and low teens, except along the CO border, while wind gusts reach up to 50 mph. A blustery Pacific cold front that crosses eastern NM Friday morning will drop temperatures across the Central and Northeast Highlands a few degrees below average on Friday, but ERCs in the 60th to 70th percentile and an ongoing wildfire near Wagon Mound counteract this mitigating factor. After weaker winds this weekend, and pockets of poor ventilation develop over western and central NM, winds will probably become gusty again on Tuesday, while humidities and precip chances increase with the aforementioned Baja low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 30 49 24 56 / 40 40 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 46 14 54 / 20 70 5 5 Cuba............................ 25 46 20 53 / 10 40 0 0 Gallup.......................... 20 47 15 55 / 20 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 24 45 22 53 / 5 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 23 50 17 56 / 0 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 24 48 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 31 54 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 27 49 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 22 57 19 62 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 25 61 24 67 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 21 39 14 47 / 10 70 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 32 46 27 51 / 5 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 28 47 22 53 / 0 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 30 44 21 50 / 0 30 10 5 Red River....................... 24 34 15 41 / 0 40 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 19 42 9 46 / 0 30 10 5 Taos............................ 26 48 16 54 / 0 30 5 0 Mora............................ 28 47 19 53 / 0 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 29 55 21 60 / 0 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 48 27 54 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 51 24 56 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 32 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 35 58 29 62 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 30 60 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 59 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 33 60 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 36 52 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 35 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 34 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 52 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 54 18 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 30 50 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 54 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 39 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 28 51 18 51 / 0 20 20 0 Raton........................... 25 53 17 54 / 0 30 20 0 Springer........................ 26 55 19 57 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 52 19 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 37 62 26 55 / 0 0 5 0 Roy............................. 35 58 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 38 64 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 36 60 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 39 68 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 43 70 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 42 70 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 65 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 42 73 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 65 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 41 64 30 60 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Friday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM MST Friday for NMZ223-229- 232>234.

Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM MST Friday for NMZ226-240.