textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Flash flooding at a heightened risk statewide today through Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture brings widespread and long duration showers and thunderstorms.

- River flooding favored Tuesday through Friday. Low-lying farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding.

- Gusty winds upwards of 25 to 45 mph mainly over southeast New Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night will threaten downed trees in saturated soils and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

There has been little change to the overall message regarding heavy rain, storms, flooding, and wind over the next 48-hours.

The upper level storm system over the Great Basin is moving east into the southwest CONUS today while Hurricane Polo makes landfall along the central Baja coast. The upper level low will absorb the remnants of Polo and merge these two systems over NM thru Tuesday night. A swath of rain over western NM early today will move east this afternoon while storms develop in better instability within southern NM. All of this activity will grow into a large mass of rain with embedded storms and move slowly north and east across the entire region by sunrise Tuesday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.0" are expected with localized amounts >2" along the Cont Divide and central mt chain. A second batch of widespread rain and storms will form as the upper low moves closer to western NM Tuesday afternoon and the actual remnant wave from Polo moves northeast across NM. Another widespread 1 to 2" will fall with locally >3" thru Tuesday night. Convective elements will produce rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour, especially within southeast NM Tuesday and Tuesday night. This rain is falling on top of already saturated soils from last week. There is a 55% of flash flooding within 25km of any point along and east of the central mt chain Tuesday. Tributaries into mainstem rivers, and even some larger drainages like the Pecos, Rio Grande, and Jemez River will see rises thru Tuesday afternoon. River Forecast Center guidance will likely include at least a few points in 'Minor' flood.

Another aspect of this system will be stronger winds. Confidence is still only low to moderate on where and when the period of strongest winds will occur Tuesday. Several models have been consistent with the core of the mid level remnant circulation moving northeast from northern Chihuahua across central NM with 700mb winds between 40 and 50kt. MOS and ensemble model wind fields indicate the period from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with south to southeast wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph along with the heavy rain. The location of these winds will entirely depend on where the mid level circulation crosses and how it interacts with the upstream jet max and the higher terrain. A Wind Advisory may be needed for a couple zones in southeast NM but another round of guidance will be reviewed before elevating this concern. Gusty winds will make it easier to topple trees in saturated soils so power outages may occur.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Wednesday, guidance appears to be coming into better agreement with a large dry slot moving east within the base of the larger upper level low circulation. A large band of wrap around precip is shown pivoting slowly east across northern NM. Additional precip may push 1", especially on northern and western-facing slopes. River flooding may peak Wednesday or Thursday in the wake of the exiting storm system.

Folks are strongly advised to stay away from rivers and arroyos as banks can give way several feet away from fast-flowing water. Large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas and low-water crossings may be inundated with high water and deep mud.

The rest of the forecast period from Thursday to Friday is likely to feature decreasing humidity and warming temps as a ridge attempts to build over the region. Areas of fog may occur for several nights in the wake of this system given saturated soils.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Conditions will deteriorate across the entire airspace over the next 12 to 24 hours. A large area of rain and storms will move slowly east across NM today and tonight. There are very high probabilities that cigs will lower to MVFR from west to east toward the RGV thru 8PM. Lcl IFR vsbys may occur in the heaviest rainfall. MVFR cigs will expand eastward into eastern NM thru sunrise Tuesday while IFR cigs develop over the rest of northern, central, and western NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Widespread showers and thunderstorms with periods of rain will impact the region thru Wednesday. Total precip amounts will average 2 to 3" with locally >5" possible. Saturated soils across the region will elevate the risk for flooding even outside of burn scars. Drier weather will return Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 52 64 51 61 / 90 60 90 80 Dulce........................... 46 60 44 57 / 100 70 90 90 Cuba............................ 49 58 44 56 / 100 90 90 80 Gallup.......................... 48 59 43 58 / 100 100 90 80 El Morro........................ 47 57 41 54 / 100 100 90 90 Grants.......................... 51 58 44 58 / 100 100 100 70 Quemado......................... 52 59 43 55 / 100 100 90 80 Magdalena....................... 55 59 47 59 / 100 100 90 60 Datil........................... 52 57 43 55 / 100 100 80 60 Reserve......................... 54 62 47 60 / 100 100 90 70 Glenwood........................ 58 66 51 64 / 100 100 90 80 Chama........................... 45 56 42 52 / 100 80 90 90 Los Alamos...................... 52 58 47 55 / 100 90 100 90 Pecos........................... 52 60 47 58 / 100 100 100 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 58 44 55 / 100 90 100 90 Red River....................... 43 53 38 50 / 100 100 100 90 Angel Fire...................... 44 56 38 52 / 100 100 100 90 Taos............................ 49 60 45 57 / 100 90 100 90 Mora............................ 50 59 46 57 / 100 100 100 80 Espanola........................ 55 63 50 62 / 100 90 100 90 Santa Fe........................ 53 59 48 56 / 100 90 100 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 61 49 59 / 100 90 100 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 62 50 61 / 100 100 100 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 64 52 63 / 100 100 100 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 65 53 64 / 100 100 100 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 64 52 63 / 100 100 100 70 Belen........................... 59 65 53 65 / 100 100 90 70 Bernalillo...................... 58 64 52 63 / 100 100 100 70 Bosque Farms.................... 58 65 52 65 / 100 100 100 70 Corrales........................ 58 64 52 64 / 100 100 100 70 Los Lunas....................... 59 64 53 65 / 100 100 100 70 Placitas........................ 56 62 50 61 / 100 100 100 70 Rio Rancho...................... 58 62 51 62 / 100 100 100 70 Socorro......................... 60 65 53 67 / 100 100 90 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 57 46 55 / 100 100 100 70 Tijeras......................... 55 61 48 59 / 100 100 100 70 Edgewood........................ 54 61 48 60 / 100 100 100 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 62 48 62 / 100 100 100 60 Clines Corners.................. 53 61 47 59 / 100 100 100 50 Mountainair..................... 54 61 47 60 / 100 100 100 70 Gran Quivira.................... 55 61 49 60 / 100 100 100 60 Carrizozo....................... 59 67 53 63 / 90 100 100 50 Ruidoso......................... 56 64 49 59 / 90 100 100 50 Capulin......................... 53 63 49 59 / 80 100 100 80 Raton........................... 54 65 50 61 / 100 90 100 80 Springer........................ 56 67 52 63 / 90 90 100 80 Las Vegas....................... 53 62 49 59 / 100 100 100 70 Clayton......................... 58 69 57 68 / 50 100 100 70 Roy............................. 56 66 53 64 / 80 100 100 70 Conchas......................... 62 72 59 73 / 80 100 100 50 Santa Rosa...................... 60 70 57 69 / 90 100 100 50 Tucumcari....................... 64 75 60 75 / 70 100 100 50 Clovis.......................... 62 74 59 75 / 60 100 90 40 Portales........................ 64 76 60 76 / 60 90 90 40 Fort Sumner..................... 63 75 60 74 / 80 100 100 40 Roswell......................... 64 78 61 77 / 60 90 90 20 Picacho......................... 61 71 55 71 / 80 100 90 10 Elk............................. 59 69 52 68 / 80 100 90 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NMZ201>211-213-214- 216>221-224>226-241.

Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late Tuesday night for NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.