textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 512 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across the northern and western high terrain each afternoon may produce gusty, erratic wind gusts with little to no precipitation.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Ridging over the southern Rockies will gradually deamplify today in response to a weak shortwave trough over The Great Basin. A modest amount of moisture has pooled over the Four Corners region and could be enough to generate an isolated shower or storm over the northern mountains this afternoon. Stagnant flow underneath the high will keep moisture over the same area on Tuesday, with rain chances trending up ever so slightly. Temperatures will be very seasonable today, with highs generally within 3 degrees of seasonal averages. Temps tick a few degrees higher on Tuesday, with very pleasant Fall temperatures around the region.

There is a low chance that very patchy fog returns again Tuesday morning, with the Estancia Basin favored based on HREF guidance. There is a low chance across the eastern plains as well, but southwest to west winds at the surface should inhibit its development.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The High circulation will drift southward on Wednesday, drawing moisture southward into central NM. This will expand the coverage of showers and storms into western NM, which will continue to favor the high terrain. Isolated, erratic wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be the main hazard with this activity. DCAPE increasing to around 750 J/kg late Wednesday afternoon suggests the potential for isolated gusts upwards of 50 mph where a few stronger updrafts could develop. Ridging will gradually deamplify over the Intermountain West late week, placing modest zonal flow over New Mexico. Temps will trend down slightly as a result, with temps hovering right around seasonal normals.

More active weather looks to return to the desert southwest this weekend into the early part of next week. Troughing will develop over the West Coast of the US, drawing a plume of Pacific moisture northward into the Four Corners region. Around a quarter of models (mostly European ensemble members) attempt to bring moisture from now Hurricane Rachel into the desert southwest, but the majority (75%) keep Rachel's circulation south and only shear mid and high level moisture northward. The current forecast has rain chances favoring the western third of New Mexico early to mid-week, with orographic lift bringing higher precip totals to the mountains. Most likely rainfall amounts for the western high terrain are in the 0.1- 0.5" range, but these will likely trend higher or lower in the coming days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across most of northern and central New Mexico early this evening. A few showers and weak thunderstorms have developed over the northern mountains, drifting southward slowly while producing brief downpours, gusty winds to 40 kt, small hail, and lightning. This shower and storm activity will dwindle away shortly after sunset, only to redevelop again Tuesday afternoon and expand into northwestern and west central areas on a very sparse and isolated basis. The prospects for fog development late tonight into early Tuesday morning are quite low with just a 10-20% chance of occurring in the Estancia valley (near K0E0) and other spotty locations along the Canadian and Pecos river valleys in eastern New Mexico.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. High pressure overhead will generally keep prevailing winds light the next few days and ventilation fair to poor. An isolated shower or storm may develop over the high terrain of northern NM today and Tuesday, with coverage extending into the western high terrain Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest winds will begin to trend stronger Sunday and Monday of next week as a trough develops over the western US. Rain chances will also increase, favoring the western third of the state

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 41 79 41 78 / 0 5 5 10 Cuba............................ 47 75 48 75 / 0 5 0 10 Gallup.......................... 42 78 43 77 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 44 75 47 73 / 0 0 5 20 Grants.......................... 44 77 45 75 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 41 75 45 75 / 0 0 5 10 Magdalena....................... 47 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 72 46 71 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 42 81 44 81 / 0 0 5 10 Glenwood........................ 48 84 49 85 / 0 0 5 20 Chama........................... 43 73 44 71 / 10 20 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 50 74 52 74 / 0 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 47 77 47 77 / 0 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 74 47 73 / 5 10 10 10 Red River....................... 41 66 42 65 / 10 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 32 71 32 70 / 10 20 10 10 Taos............................ 45 76 44 75 / 0 5 0 5 Mora............................ 47 75 47 73 / 0 5 0 5 Espanola........................ 48 80 48 80 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 50 75 50 75 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 75 50 77 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 80 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 79 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 49 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 53 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 50 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 48 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 75 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 72 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 52 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 71 48 72 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 48 76 50 75 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 47 81 49 79 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 44 82 46 80 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 46 76 48 75 / 0 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 79 48 77 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 55 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 53 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 57 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 80 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.