textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Sporadic and erratic wind gusts of 45 mph will create difficult crosswinds on area highways in eastern New Mexico Friday, especially for high- profile vehicles. - Dry and unseasonably warm weather persists with numerous high temperature records threatened through the next week.

- Precipitation chances begin to return near Christmas for western New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1253 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

Breezy northwest winds continue across the state this afternoon, except for eastern NM where easterly/southerly winds dominate behind the backdoor front that pushed through earlier this morning. The 700mb flow that caused this morning's high winds begins to taper off through the afternoon as upper level and surface pressure gradients relax. Before that though, the downsloping west/northwest winds continue the trend of several near record to record high temperatures across the state, though the backdoor front across the east will dampen chances out that way. Highs in the 50s to 60s can be expected throughout the rest of the day. Into tonight, the upper level pattern remains much of the same, but the 700mb winds increase in speed across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, most likely leading to windy conditions near the peaks. Even though there are good probabilities (>50% chance) and high confidence of those wind speeds, given that they will most likely occur above most locales, will not be issuing a Wind Advisory for the mountains. Folks should still be prepared for windy conditions that normally accompany west/northwest flow.

Into Friday, another breezy to windy day is likely across eastern NM, though there is high confidence that it will not be as intense as this most recent event given weaker 700mb flow and low confidence in any breaking mountain waves. Even so, with a surface trough progged to develop across the Front Range, winds of 20-30mph with gusts up to 45mph are looking likely across the east, mainly along the I-40 corridor. Places in far eastern NM see their winds taper off near sundown, but the peaks of the Sangres and the Central Highlands look to have these breezy to windy conditions continue into Friday night. This is due to the 700mb flow strengthening to over 50kts along the Sangres and a boundary setting up in the Central Highlands (seen with surface pressure and theta-e gradients). As with the Thursday night/Friday winds, would not be surprised to see some gusts near 60mph near the peaks of the Sangres during this event, though with the majority, if not all, of the wind remaining above population centers, will forego any High Wind Watch.

Another note for Friday is that we see another good chance to break or even shatter multiple daily temperature records. For example, Albuquerque, Farmington, Gallup, Raton, Roswell and Tucumcari are all currently forecast to break their daily record high temperatures. High 60s to high 70s are very likely across eastern NM, with up to high 60s and low 70s across central and western NM.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1253 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

The long term remains dominated by near record to record high temperatures. Outside of a backdoor cold front on Sunday, high temperatures remain 15-25F above average across the state, with some locations in eastern NM threatening 30F above average. Upper level flow remains zonal as a ~589dm high pressure shifts through northern Mexico late weekend through the early part of next week. Breezy conditions can be expected each day mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. A potential pattern change appears more likely around Christmas, where the upper level flow begins to buckle out over the eastern Pacific. With this, a channel of moisture is likely going to be funneled into the Desert Southwest around Wednesday (Christmas Eve). Precipitation chances have returned in the forecast, with ~20-30% chances across much of western NM. Should this precipitation materialize, a vast majority of it would be rain, with snow confined to locations mainly above 9,500ft, perhaps even higher. Precipitation rates and amounts would be heavily affected by any shortwaves moving through the mean flow, but details will become ironed out as it moves closer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. West winds will become breezy to windy over the mountains and east central NM on Friday. The strongest gusts will probably reach around 35 KT over the east central plains, including KTCC, and near 45 KT over the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Lower elevation winds will weaken some with sunset Friday evening, but mountain top winds will remain strong over the Sangre de Cristos through Friday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1253 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely across eastern NM on Friday given breezy winds and mid teens humidity values. West winds of 20-30mph with gusts up to 45mph are increasingly likely Friday afternoon across much of the eastern plains, with higher gusts possible across the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Isolated areas in eastern NM may see an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions, but with this not being widespread, and the ERCs of eastern NM remaining at or below the 50th percentile, no Red Flag Warning is expected. Isolated areas of elevated fire weather continues Saturday, mainly in the Central Highlands and the southeast portion of the state due to breezy winds and lower humidity values. Several breezy afternoons through the next week may bring about additional elevated fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 28 57 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 19 57 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 27 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 62 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 31 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 26 67 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 67 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 68 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 27 72 30 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 31 74 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 22 51 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 33 56 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 55 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 47 32 47 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 20 53 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 31 61 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 28 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 61 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 33 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 66 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 28 67 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 33 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 66 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 33 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 66 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 37 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 33 63 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 35 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 58 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 35 59 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 33 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 64 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 32 59 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 64 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 38 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 28 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 26 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 72 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 31 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 34 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 34 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 33 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 34 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 32 75 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 38 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 37 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.