textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- A warm storm system will spread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow mainly along and south of I-40 through this evening resulting in little rainfall with a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

- Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread from Thursday into the weekend across eastern and portions of central NM.

- A strong backdoor cold front will bring notably colder and brisk conditions to eastern NM on Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1208 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

An upper level low is currently over the central Baja Peninsula and accelerating east per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of the upper air feature over northern MX, southeast AZ and southwest NM. Moisture advection is underway across our area and will continue through today, with scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms favoring areas south of I-40. The forecast hasn't changed much from the previous forecast cycle and this is still expected to be a low qpf event partially due to the quick-hitting nature of the filling upper low as it races east across southern NM today. The southwest and south central mountains are still the two areas most likely to receive 0.10" or more of liquid precipitation and high snow levels will relegate any notable snowfall to the highest terrain. Breezy to locally windy conditions will accompany the upper low passage today, especially across the southeast plains where showers and storms will enhance gradient winds and gusts to between 40-50mph are likely. Showers and storms will diminish rapidly this evening as the upper low ejects east into the TX Panhandle. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist overnight behind the departing upper low, especially across eastern NM where a backdoor cold front will bring brisk conditions going into Wednesday morning. High temperatures will be 10-20 degrees cooler on Wednesday across the eastern plains behind the backdoor cold front and will be closer to average for a change. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will prevail Wednesday across western NM under moderate northwest flow aloft.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1208 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Moderate northwest flow aloft and lee side troughing will be the story from Thursday through Saturday, bringing well above average temperatures and breezy to locally windy conditions during the afternoon and evening hours. There is good agreement among the 00Z medium range model solutions on a strong backdoor cold frontal passage on Sunday across eastern NM and the 00Z MOS guidance is advertising temperatures that are 10 degrees colder than our current forecast for Sun/Mon, signaling a possible forecast trend going forward. Brisk conditions are likely behind the front, with an impressive pressure gradient advertised by the 00Z models and sustained wind speeds of 20-30kts already showing in the MOS guidance. By Monday, an impressive west coast ridge is forecast, with troughing across the eastern CONUS. Looking out further into next week, the ridge is forecast to transition east across the Intermountain West next week while strengthening, bringing anomalously high pressure heights and well above average temperatures with the potential for daily record high temperatures from mid to late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although with the continued development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs. Showers are forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms mixing-in and will be associated mostly with VFR conditions and wind gusts of 30-40kts. Probabilities for MVFR conditions in showers are too low to include in TAFs at this time. KROW is the terminal most likely to be impacted by showers and gusty winds, with low probabilities elsewhere. Otherwise, winds will generally increase out of the west or northwest across the area later today and continue into the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A quick-hitting Pacific low will impact the area today with higher humidity, breezy to locally windy conditions and chances for wetting precipitation that will favor areas south of I-40. A strong backdoor cold front will bring windy and notably colder conditions to the eastern plains late tonight into Wednesday. A warming/drying trend is forecast from Thursday through Saturday, with moderate northwest flow aloft and lee side troughing bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions to eastern and portions of central NM. Humidity will plummet during the Thursday through Saturday period, with minimum humidity forecast in the single digits across much of the area. A strong backdoor cold front will impact eastern NM Sun/Mon with notably colder and brisk conditions, while western areas remain warm, dry and breezy.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 36 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 65 27 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 64 34 62 29 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 65 29 64 23 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 32 62 27 / 40 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 65 31 65 25 / 30 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 58 34 62 29 / 50 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 40 66 37 / 60 20 0 0 Datil........................... 57 35 63 30 / 70 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 32 67 29 / 70 20 0 0 Glenwood........................ 61 33 73 32 / 70 20 0 0 Chama........................... 59 26 58 24 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 40 63 36 / 30 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 65 35 63 29 / 40 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 32 60 29 / 20 5 0 0 Red River....................... 56 28 53 24 / 30 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 59 21 56 15 / 40 10 0 0 Taos............................ 66 29 65 24 / 20 5 0 0 Mora............................ 64 33 61 28 / 40 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 71 37 70 30 / 30 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 65 38 65 34 / 40 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 36 68 31 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 45 69 42 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 44 71 41 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 37 74 32 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 43 72 38 / 20 5 0 0 Belen........................... 71 40 74 33 / 30 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 72 41 73 36 / 20 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 36 74 31 / 30 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 72 41 73 36 / 20 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 71 38 73 32 / 30 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 43 68 39 / 20 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 43 71 38 / 20 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 70 46 75 39 / 40 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 41 64 36 / 30 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 41 65 37 / 30 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 40 66 34 / 30 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 35 67 27 / 30 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 35 62 29 / 30 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 64 39 66 34 / 40 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 63 39 66 33 / 50 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 41 69 38 / 70 20 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 56 40 62 31 / 70 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 29 54 24 / 20 10 0 0 Raton........................... 70 30 60 22 / 30 10 0 0 Springer........................ 72 32 63 25 / 30 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 67 33 60 26 / 40 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 76 36 55 30 / 10 10 0 0 Roy............................. 72 36 59 28 / 20 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 78 40 65 31 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 73 41 64 32 / 40 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 39 64 31 / 30 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 78 41 64 32 / 30 5 0 0 Portales........................ 79 41 66 31 / 30 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 42 67 32 / 30 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 75 45 72 38 / 40 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 69 45 68 34 / 60 10 0 0 Elk............................. 64 41 67 31 / 70 10 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.