textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico due to near-record heat.

- Localized erratic wind gust to 55 mph or greater from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall in eastern New Mexico on Thursday.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, and potentially Monday too, will increase the threat of rapid fire spread.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Gusty showers have mostly dissipated around the region although there are a few remnant outflow boundaries still out there. Water vapor imagery shows that the sub-tropical moisture plume over New Mexico is being tilted zonally as the state comes under the influence of westerly flow. Mid-level moisture will still be in place over eastern NM by the early afternoon, which will be sufficient for the development of isolated showers and storms. The boundary layer will be very deep (up to 18kft) so there will be quite a bit of DCAPE to generate strong downdrafts. In addition, these will mix down background winds of 20 to 25 kts at 500 mb down to the sfc, with intermittently gusty winds likely as a result. It will be slightly more unstable than yesterday so there will be an opportunity for a few stronger updrafts to develop. This is most likely in the far eastern plains near the TX border during the mid- afternoon hours. Despite the moisture and increased cloud cover, the downsloping breeze will keep temperatures quite warm in eastern NM this afternoon, challenging a few record highs. It will be a few degrees cooler in western and central areas, but still above seasonal averages.

A shortwave trough over Arizona will eject across New Mexico on Friday. It could generate a few fast-moving showers across the northeast corner of the state along a backdoor cold frontal boundary, with gusty and erratic outflow winds once again the primary hazard. Temperatures will be largely unchanged Friday despite the intrusion of this front.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday will be relatively quiet with light southwest flow aloft over New Mexico, but winds will strengthen on Sunday as New Mexico comes under the influence of a Great Basin trough. Increasing southwest winds at 700 mb will induce the development of a lee side low during the afternoon hours. Both the GEFS and ENS mean sfc pressure are showing a 992 mb sfc low developing in southeast CO, which would be sufficient for wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 mph. Winds have trended slightly weaker compared to the last forecast update, but not enough to prevent there from being widespread critical fire weather conditions.

Windy conditions are forecast to continue into Monday as shortwave troughs rotate around the main longwave trough off to the northwest. Models are in quite good agreement with regard to the location of this trough through Monday, but this decreases on Tuesday. The ENS exits this trough off to the northeast by Tuesday whereas the other ensemble systems keep the southerly edge of the jet stream over New Mexico until around Wednesday before heights finally rise again. The weakening of zonal flow could allow some moisture to sneak into eastern NM starting Thursday of next week, with higher chances on Friday. Strong storms could develop along a tightening dryline these days as well, but forecast confidence remains low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

High based gusty showers will focus over eastern NM between 18Z and 00Z. Showers have the potentially to produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts and kick up blowing dust, creating minor visibility reductions. There may be a few storms in far eastern NM during the afternoon too, but coverage will be limited.

A west breeze will prevail around the region this afternoon. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts will be commonplace in central and western NM, with slightly stronger gusts (20 to 30 kts) in eastern NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

While it will be dry and breezy in eastern NM this afternoon, RFTI values were too low (2-4) to warrant an upgrade of the Fire Weather Watch. However, dry storms will be a threat in the eastern plains this afternoon. Inverted V soundings will favor locally strong outflow wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, which could kick up blowing dust as well. Lingering moisture, a weak backdoor frontal passage, and a shortwave trough will interact over northeastern NM to produce a few more gusty showers on Friday afternoon while the rest of the region remains dry. Winds will generally be lighter on Friday as well, except for some briefly gusty winds associated with a weak Pacific cold front passage.

Southwest winds trend stronger over the weekend as New Mexico comes under the influence of a Great Basin trough. Breezy conditions turn windy Sunday as humidity drops. Afternoon humidities are forecast to drop as low as 5% in eastern NM Sunday afternoon. The lower elevations of central and eastern NM will likely experience 5 to 10 hours of single digit RH on Sunday as well. With strong winds, low humidity, deep mixing, above normal temperatures, and clear skies, Sunday has all the ingredients for a high-end Red Flag day.

Critical conditions are likely again on Monday as the Great Basin trough remains off to the northwest. Forecast confidence remains low beyond Monday, but there is a low chance that the fire growing pattern continues into mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 83 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 36 83 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 79 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 79 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 81 47 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 82 53 80 52 / 5 0 10 0 Datil........................... 79 48 77 47 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 85 41 84 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 88 41 87 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 75 37 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 54 79 54 / 0 0 10 0 Pecos........................... 80 48 80 47 / 5 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 45 77 45 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 67 39 68 40 / 5 0 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 73 31 74 31 / 0 0 10 0 Taos............................ 81 39 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 80 48 79 47 / 5 5 10 0 Espanola........................ 86 48 86 48 / 5 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 80 51 80 51 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 48 83 48 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 57 86 57 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 54 88 54 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 49 90 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 91 46 89 44 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 90 53 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 91 44 89 43 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 91 53 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 91 45 89 44 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 85 56 84 56 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 90 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 93 58 90 56 / 5 5 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 52 81 53 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 83 52 82 52 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 84 51 83 50 / 10 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 47 84 45 / 10 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 81 50 80 49 / 10 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 84 50 82 49 / 10 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 83 53 81 50 / 10 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 87 58 84 56 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 81 58 78 56 / 5 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 81 47 78 45 / 10 5 30 0 Raton........................... 85 45 83 44 / 10 5 20 0 Springer........................ 87 45 85 45 / 10 5 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 82 50 82 49 / 5 5 10 0 Clayton......................... 90 57 87 54 / 20 10 20 10 Roy............................. 86 50 84 49 / 10 5 30 0 Conchas......................... 94 53 93 53 / 10 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 55 89 54 / 20 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 56 96 55 / 20 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 96 58 96 56 / 20 10 0 0 Portales........................ 97 59 97 57 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 94 57 94 55 / 20 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 64 96 59 / 10 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 91 60 89 59 / 10 5 0 0 Elk............................. 90 58 87 55 / 10 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.