textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico will produce erratic wind gusts and dangerous lightning with localized moderate rainfall amounts today and Sunday.

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds pick up Sunday afternoon mostly through western New Mexico where peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will develop.

- Light rain will turn more spotty into Monday and Tuesday of next week while breezy to windy conditions become more common.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The flow aloft over NM continues to turn more west southwest as a result of upstream features moving closer. These include a cold core low near 30N, 125W and tropical storm Rachel, which will phase together and move inland over southern CA by Sunday. Mid to high level moisture is already increasing ahead of these features, and while the bulk of it will be steered into southern CA and AZ, more subtle rises will be observed into NM. Precipitable water values are progged to rise from current ranges of 0.4 to 0.6 inch toward a more respectable 0.6 to 1.0 inch gamut. In addition, large scale ascent will be increasing in CA and AZ, and to a lesser extent into NM. This will yield scattered showers and thunderstorms across western NM today. As mid to high level cloud cover is drawn into NM from the southwest, the instability from diurnal heating will be limited (100 to 500 J/kg) with not much prospect for any strong to severe storms. Increased 700 to 500 mb layer winds of 10 to 20kt will steer storms at a decent pace northeastward with low QPF amounts below 0.25 inch in most locations. The increased momentum aloft and a lee-side surface trough in northeastern NM will yield breezy to windy conditions there with breezy (generally 10 to 20 mph) speeds elsewhere. Temperatures will cool a few degrees in western zones today due to additional moisture and cloud cover, but will still remain near normal. Eastern portions of the forecast area will rise a couple degrees in the warmer southerly flow this afternoon. Showers and storms will concentrate toward the central to north central portions of NM this evening with a general downtrend in coverage later tonight into early morning Sunday.

With the Pacific low and remnants of Rachel moving up the lower CO river basin on Sunday, the gradient aloft will strengthen with the mean 700 to 500 mb layer winds rising to 20 to 45 kt. Another lee-side surface trough will develop, inducing stronger winds across the forecast area with gusts of 25 to 35 mph being more common and even up to 45 mph in scattered areas Sunday afternoon. Rather than a steady stream of increased moisture, there seems to be a mosaic or patchwork of moisture moving into NM from the southwest on Sunday. Still, the best large scale ascent would be over the western half of the state is forecast to undergo scattered storm development amidst modest instability. While speed shear would be present, the meager instability would likely limit the strong to severe storm threat Sunday, and the fast movement would also keep QPF in a 0.01 to 0.25" range with very spotty outliers that exceed.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

By Monday, another (double vort lobe) cold core low will be dropping down the CA coastline while hurricane Simon encroaches upon the west coast of the Mexican mainland (Jalisco). While ample tropical moisture will be drawn northward from Simon, it will largely get steered into west TX, bypassing NM aside from the southeastern zones. This will keep much of NM dry on Monday and even into Tuesday when the southern-most vort lobe associated with the cold core low moves over the NV-UT border. Only spotty showers or thunderstorms would be favored over the northwestern and far eastern zones, mostly on Tuesday. Breezy to windy southwesterlies will continue each day with the gradient aloft restrengthening and lee-side surface troughs recurring. Temperatures will run close to normal in western NM on Monday, reducing a few degrees into Tuesday while eastern zones remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal among the gusty downsloping winds.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the exit of the cold core low into Wednesday and beyond with the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean pacing things much quicker into the northern Rockies and nearby high plains. The ECMWF and ENS mean are slower, suggesting that the low would become cut-off from the polar and subtropical jets, allowing it to wander aimlessly over the southwestern states well into late next week. The grand ensemble mean of all available models indicates the low would likely have enough tethering to the jet to get ushered into the upper midwest or Great Lakes region, but a weaker area of pressure falls is still projected over the southwestern states, perhaps a weaker cut-off low. For now, blended guidance keeps low POPs in the extended forecast, mostly over southeastern zones.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Faint and modified subtropical moisture will seep into western New Mexico into Saturday with increased, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. These showers and storms will move toward the northeast quickly, impacting KGUP, KFMN, KGNT, K4SL, and KE33 in the afternoon before spreading toward KAEG, KABQ, KLAM, and KSAF in the early evening. Any downpours will be quick with gusty outflow winds to 40 kt and a few lightning strikes likely being the bigger aviation impact through Saturday evening. Farther east, just fair weather high clouds will persist with VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Humidity will trend upward this weekend with afternoon values ranging from 25 to 35 percent in most zones. Western zones will have the best shot for rainfall as faint and modified subtropical moisture seeps in this weekend, but soaking rainfall coverage will not be all that widespread with many western areas likely not even receiving 0.25 inch. Temperatures will stay 5 to 10 degrees above normal in eastern zones while western zones reduce a few degrees below normal. Breezes will start to increase today, especially in northeastern zones where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. The winds will increase more into Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph being more common along with scattered areas of gusts as high as 45 mph. These increased winds will fortunately be offset with the higher humidity values of 25 to 35 percent that should persist through Tuesday. Much uncertainty looms in the extended forecast Wednesday onward, but no blatant periods of critical fire weather are foreseen.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 74 55 76 53 / 30 50 30 30 Dulce........................... 70 45 71 43 / 40 50 60 80 Cuba............................ 70 50 70 47 / 30 20 30 40 Gallup.......................... 72 49 73 45 / 20 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 69 46 71 43 / 40 30 20 20 Grants.......................... 72 49 74 47 / 30 20 20 10 Quemado......................... 72 50 72 47 / 30 20 20 10 Magdalena....................... 72 54 73 52 / 20 20 20 10 Datil........................... 69 48 71 46 / 30 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 75 50 72 49 / 20 30 60 40 Glenwood........................ 81 55 77 53 / 20 40 70 60 Chama........................... 64 45 65 43 / 40 50 70 80 Los Alamos...................... 71 52 71 52 / 10 20 20 30 Pecos........................... 72 49 72 49 / 0 20 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 48 69 48 / 10 20 20 50 Red River....................... 60 41 60 41 / 10 20 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 65 37 67 37 / 5 10 10 40 Taos............................ 71 47 72 46 / 5 20 10 40 Mora............................ 71 46 70 47 / 0 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 77 53 78 52 / 10 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 72 53 73 53 / 5 20 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 52 76 52 / 5 20 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 60 79 59 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 59 80 58 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 59 82 58 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 59 80 58 / 20 20 20 20 Belen........................... 79 57 82 56 / 10 20 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 79 58 81 57 / 10 20 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 79 57 82 56 / 10 20 10 10 Corrales........................ 79 59 81 58 / 10 20 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 79 57 82 57 / 10 20 10 10 Placitas........................ 76 58 78 57 / 10 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 78 59 80 58 / 20 20 20 10 Socorro......................... 80 59 82 57 / 0 10 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 53 73 52 / 10 20 10 20 Tijeras......................... 73 55 76 54 / 10 20 10 20 Edgewood........................ 74 51 76 51 / 5 20 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 50 78 50 / 5 10 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 73 52 75 52 / 0 10 5 10 Mountainair..................... 73 52 75 52 / 0 10 5 20 Gran Quivira.................... 73 53 75 53 / 0 10 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 76 57 79 58 / 0 5 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 70 52 73 52 / 0 5 5 20 Capulin......................... 74 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 78 49 79 50 / 0 0 5 5 Springer........................ 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 73 51 74 52 / 0 5 5 10 Clayton......................... 81 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 77 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 84 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 85 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 82 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 83 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 83 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 86 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 81 57 84 58 / 0 5 5 10 Elk............................. 77 55 80 56 / 0 5 5 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.