textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Heat continues across eastern New Mexico through Monday where there is an elevated risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and increasing into next week will elevate the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings. Arroyos and small streams that have dried up this summer may fill with water.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The 593dm H5 high moved east toward the Permian Basin overnight while an upper level trough pushed closer to the Great Basin. Satellite imagery shows a 700-500mb subtropical wave over northern Chihuahua drifting north toward southwest NM with rich monsoon moisture. PWATs in this source region are >1.5". The coverage of showers and storms will increase markedly today with more robust storms capable of producing heavy rainfall. HREF 24-hr LPMM QPF shows several cells dropping 0.5-1.0" today. Max temps will still be hot for mid September but a few degrees cooler than recent days. Showers are likely to linger thru tonight as deep moisture advection continues northward into NM.

PWATs by Monday are progged to reach 1.2" at KABQ. The upper level trough exiting the Great Basin will assert greater ascent across the region as noted by a 700-500mb trough axis and 50kt jet moving into western NM. 00Z NAM12 CAPE values average 1000 to 2000 J/kg with bulk shear increasing to between 20 and 30kt over northern and western NM. An even more robust crop of storms is likely with larger and more numerous footprints of heavy rainfall on latest CAMs. The 00Z HREF LPMM QPF shows many storms producing more than 1" with a few cells dropping over 2". High temps trend closer to normal for more of the region, except southeast NM where the upper level high still keeps readings 10 to 15F above normal.

While the coverage of storms will be noticeable greater today and Monday, there will still be areas that don't receive any rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Tuesday looks similar to Monday but with bulk shear values progged to increase to between 30 and 40kt over northern and western NM. A weak surface boundary will also be draped over northeast NM and this modeled feature has been consistent for a few days now. There may be an elevated risk for a few strong to severe storms in this pattern, especially across northern and northeast NM. The 00Z RRFS simulated reflectivity shows a lot more organized convection with 12-hr QPF footprints in the 2 to 3" range from the stronger cells over the northeast plains.

By Wednesday, the next upper level low slides south down the West Coast into NorCal while the upper level ridge to our east attempts to squeeze westward again. This will tighten up the monsoon plume over the southwest CONUS, especially over NM. Abundant moisture is shown surging north Wednesday thru Friday with near-record daily PWATs for mid September. Several subtropical perturbations are also shown moving north from MX. A multi-day period of more widespread rainfall is anticipated. Some of this may come as bouts of showers and storms mixed with periods of rain and thick cloud cover.

WPC QPF amounts are impressive over the next 7 days with widespread values between 1 and 2" and locally higher than 3" possible around the high terrain. Even the 00Z LREF 7-day QPF shows everyone picking up at least 0.50" by the end of the week (50th %tile). The risk for flooding will increase with each day of heavy rainfall, particularly around burn scars, urban areas, and low-lying flood prone sites. Temps will trend cooler and actually a little below normal for mid September.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for low probabilities for short-lived MVFR conditions in blowing dust due to thunderstorm outflow. VFR cigs may lower further than forecast at KGUP early Monday morning, but are still forecast to remain VFR. An increase in coverage of showers and storms is forecast this afternoon/evening relative to yesterday and is being accounted for with PROB30 groups in the TAFs, except for KROW where probabilities for thunderstorm impacts are too low to include. Wind gusts to between 30-40kts will be common with showers and storms today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A transition to much needed rainfall is expected over the next 7 days as the monsoon high shifts east and a series of upper level troughs move into the western U.S. This pattern will allow a more persistent tap of monsoon moisture to slide north into NM. The coverage of storms with locally heavy rainfall will increase today and Monday then become numerous to widespread Tuesday thru Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" will be common by the end of the week with locally heavier amounts greater than 3". The risk of flash flooding will increase around area burn scars with each passing day of heavy rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 89 61 82 58 / 20 60 60 50 Dulce........................... 87 53 79 49 / 30 70 70 60 Cuba............................ 86 56 77 53 / 30 60 70 70 Gallup.......................... 85 56 80 52 / 20 30 60 60 El Morro........................ 82 54 77 51 / 30 40 60 70 Grants.......................... 86 57 81 53 / 30 30 60 60 Quemado......................... 84 57 78 55 / 40 30 70 60 Magdalena....................... 85 62 80 59 / 30 40 70 70 Datil........................... 81 57 77 55 / 30 20 70 50 Reserve......................... 87 56 82 55 / 20 30 50 50 Glenwood........................ 94 62 87 61 / 20 40 50 50 Chama........................... 80 51 72 48 / 40 70 70 60 Los Alamos...................... 84 62 79 59 / 20 30 70 70 Pecos........................... 86 56 81 54 / 30 50 50 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 56 77 52 / 10 40 60 40 Red River....................... 77 49 68 46 / 10 30 50 40 Angel Fire...................... 79 46 74 41 / 20 30 50 40 Taos............................ 88 56 81 52 / 10 30 60 50 Mora............................ 83 55 79 53 / 40 40 40 40 Espanola........................ 92 63 85 58 / 10 30 70 60 Santa Fe........................ 86 60 81 57 / 20 40 60 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 60 84 56 / 20 30 50 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 66 86 63 / 10 20 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 66 86 63 / 10 30 50 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 65 88 62 / 10 30 50 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 66 86 63 / 10 30 60 60 Belen........................... 95 65 88 61 / 10 30 50 60 Bernalillo...................... 94 66 87 62 / 20 30 60 70 Bosque Farms.................... 94 62 87 59 / 10 30 50 50 Corrales........................ 95 65 87 62 / 20 30 60 70 Los Lunas....................... 94 62 87 59 / 10 30 50 60 Placitas........................ 90 65 85 62 / 20 30 60 60 Rio Rancho...................... 93 66 86 63 / 20 30 60 70 Socorro......................... 97 69 89 66 / 20 30 60 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 62 81 57 / 20 30 60 50 Tijeras......................... 88 63 82 59 / 20 30 60 50 Edgewood........................ 89 60 84 57 / 20 20 60 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 55 86 53 / 20 20 50 40 Clines Corners.................. 87 59 83 56 / 30 30 50 50 Mountainair..................... 89 61 83 58 / 20 30 60 60 Gran Quivira.................... 89 60 84 57 / 20 30 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 92 66 87 63 / 20 30 30 50 Ruidoso......................... 85 59 79 58 / 40 30 50 50 Capulin......................... 87 58 84 55 / 20 20 30 20 Raton........................... 90 55 87 54 / 20 20 30 20 Springer........................ 92 58 89 55 / 30 30 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 87 58 82 56 / 40 30 30 40 Clayton......................... 94 66 92 64 / 10 20 30 30 Roy............................. 90 63 87 60 / 10 30 30 30 Conchas......................... 98 69 95 66 / 10 20 30 40 Santa Rosa...................... 94 67 91 65 / 20 20 50 60 Tucumcari....................... 98 70 97 68 / 10 30 20 30 Clovis.......................... 99 67 95 67 / 20 30 10 30 Portales........................ 100 68 96 68 / 20 20 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 99 69 95 67 / 10 20 30 40 Roswell......................... 102 70 98 69 / 10 20 20 40 Picacho......................... 95 64 90 63 / 30 20 60 50 Elk............................. 93 61 87 60 / 30 20 40 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.