textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Ongoing areal flooding impacts across southeastern NM will see clearing conditions this morning before scattered afternoon storms threaten secondary flash flooding today.

- The monsoon moisture surge continues at a less intense pace today, but still with a continued marginal to slight risk of flash flooding.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances increases Sunday night into Monday, resulting in another stretch of increased flash flooding risk potentially lasting into late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1214 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Ongoing flash flood risk continues over south-central and southeastern NM tonight. Widespread showers continue over areas of eastern Lincoln, Chaves, De Baca, Roosevelt, Curry, and Quay Counties where many areas have seen 1 to 2 inches with some localized spots near Lincoln, NM, and a swath across Roosevelt and Curry Counties have seen up to 4 to 6 inches over the past 12 hours. Much of the rain over these areas has become mostly stratiform and light to moderate in nature over the past hour. However, radar and WV satellite imagery has picked up on another meso-vorticity feature rotating northward through south-central NM near El Paso to Las Cruces. This next feature is on a NNE/NE track with hi-res CAMs showing it bring yet another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall to these already soaked and flooded areas tonight. The prime time period looks to be arriving to areas from Ruidoso to Roswell from 2am to 3am MDT, and onward to Portales and Clovis by 4am to 7am MDT, give or take an hour on either side. Due to already heavy rains, and potential for this to be an dangerous overnight flash flooding event with rapid rises, locals in these areas should be weather aware and have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings. Heed local authorities, and only travel if absolutely necessary. These areas look to see rain clearing out of the area west to east through Friday morning, although with sporadic shower activity continuing on through much of the day still. A few afternoon thunderstorms here would clearly disrupt or exacerbate any recovery operations.

Areas over central, northern, and western NM will see more scattered shower and thunderstorms activity overnight with cells generally moving N/NE. The wider spaces between these cells and faster movement will reduce the risk of flash flooding concerns tonight through Friday, but there is still a non-zero risk of flash flooding hitting areas that do get hit multiple times, are already inundated, or are poorly drained. In particular, a batch of strong thunderstorms moving northward across White Sands area looks to progress up the Rio Grande Valley, reaching places across Socorro County and northward toward the ABQ metro by 2am to 6am MDT, likely petering out by the Santa Fe metro. Scattered storms currently across west-central NM also look to progress across parts of northwestern NM and Navajo Nation through the overnight period to the early predawn hours Friday morning.

Thereafter, the upper low over AZ will become the main weather player as it shifts over northwestern NM in the afternoon bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the state. Although at a lesser coverage, these storms will still pose a marginal risk of flash flooding if hitting the wrong sensitive areas. A slight risk does exist over southeastern NM where the most sensitive areas will likely see flash flooding even from one storm given the current ongoing flooding.

Saturday sees much needed and welcomed clearing conditions areawide.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1214 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to western and central NM Sunday afternoon as the leading edge of the next major monsoonal plume advects northward into the Desert Southwest. Upper level forcing will begin to increase ahead of an approaching depending upper level trough digging southward across northern CA, and with Hurricane Polo approaching the southern Baja. Storms will favor development along the Continental Divide before moving east into the Rio Grande Valley and central NM.

Monday sees the upper level trough close off to a 563dm H5 low over central CA, pulling up Hurricane Polo and its associated abundant moisture midway up the Baja Coast. This will bring numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across much of NM. Given the increasing upper level shear, some storms are likely to have a severe weather component alongside the risk of flash flooding from storms training over the same areas. This next round of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely continue across NM nonstop through Monday night and Tuesday as the H5 low tracks across AZ, absorbing the remnants of Polo moving ashore northwestern Mexico. Depending on how the dynamics of this system absorption occurs, shower and thunderstorm activity over NM may persist as long as Friday. Many areas will likely see another 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts even higher. This will exacerbate any flash flooding impacts leftover from this week's event, produce rises on area tributaries, streams, and rivers. If not already prepped from the current ongoing weather, now is the time to double-check your emergency plans and be weather aware.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Another round of afternoon scattered afternoon showers and storms is expected to develop today, moving west to east across the state bringing localized and brief impacts at all terminals. Precipitation should dissipate after midnight. Outside of thunderstorm driven outflow gusts, winds will generally remain at 10 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

There are no fire weather concerns through the next week as abundant monsoonal moisture tracks across the state. Aside from Saturday's drier conditions, each day has notable shower and thunderstorm chances across the state. Main threats will be gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding, notably over recent burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 74 47 80 50 / 30 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 68 44 74 45 / 80 40 0 0 Cuba............................ 66 48 71 49 / 80 40 0 0 Gallup.......................... 70 41 79 42 / 30 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 68 45 72 47 / 30 30 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 41 77 41 / 50 40 0 0 Quemado......................... 71 47 75 50 / 30 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 70 50 74 52 / 60 40 0 0 Datil........................... 68 47 73 49 / 30 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 51 79 53 / 20 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 79 58 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 Chama........................... 62 41 68 43 / 80 50 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 67 51 71 56 / 70 40 0 0 Pecos........................... 67 49 73 49 / 60 40 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 44 69 44 / 60 20 0 0 Red River....................... 57 39 62 39 / 60 20 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 62 37 69 30 / 50 40 0 0 Taos............................ 68 43 75 40 / 60 20 0 0 Mora............................ 67 47 72 48 / 60 40 0 0 Espanola........................ 73 51 77 52 / 70 50 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 68 48 76 47 / 60 40 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 49 78 48 / 60 40 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 54 79 56 / 50 60 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 74 56 80 58 / 60 60 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 75 57 81 59 / 60 60 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 55 80 57 / 60 60 0 0 Belen........................... 76 56 79 57 / 50 60 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 74 55 80 56 / 50 60 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 75 56 79 57 / 60 60 0 0 Corrales........................ 75 55 80 57 / 50 60 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 75 56 78 57 / 60 60 0 0 Placitas........................ 72 53 78 54 / 50 60 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 74 55 77 56 / 60 60 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 55 82 55 / 50 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 50 70 52 / 50 60 0 0 Tijeras......................... 69 52 72 53 / 50 60 0 0 Edgewood........................ 70 49 74 48 / 50 60 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 45 78 41 / 40 60 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 48 75 50 / 50 50 0 0 Mountainair..................... 70 52 73 52 / 50 30 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 70 53 73 53 / 50 30 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 57 77 58 / 60 30 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 53 72 54 / 60 30 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 50 73 50 / 60 10 0 0 Raton........................... 71 46 80 46 / 60 10 0 0 Springer........................ 73 50 78 50 / 60 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 69 47 78 47 / 60 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 73 57 81 57 / 80 5 0 0 Roy............................. 70 53 78 54 / 70 20 0 0 Conchas......................... 77 60 84 58 / 80 30 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 59 82 58 / 70 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 76 61 87 57 / 90 30 0 0 Clovis.......................... 75 59 85 57 / 100 30 0 0 Portales........................ 77 61 84 60 / 100 30 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 61 85 60 / 80 40 0 0 Roswell......................... 79 62 91 59 / 60 30 0 0 Picacho......................... 75 57 82 59 / 70 30 0 0 Elk............................. 74 55 79 56 / 70 20 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ226-235-236-238>240.