textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Strong to damaging wind gusts likely again Wednesday afternoon around the region, creating hazardous to dangerous crosswinds and potentially knocking down trees and power lines.

- Snow accumulation and blowing and snow will produce snowpacked and icy roads, as well as snow drifts, in portions of the mountains today, Wednesday, and Friday, and probably also at lower elevation of north central and western New Mexico on Friday.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas today, then again on Wednesday as far west as the middle Rio Grande Valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 1040 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Wind highlights have been issued for Wednesday afternoon. High Wind Watches have been issued for where winds are expected to be the strongest (far western NM and along and just east of the central mountain chain) with Wind Advisories in many other areas, including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Farmington. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Tusas and Chuskas mountains where briefly very difficult driving conditions are likely with a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

An unsettled pattern will persist through Friday as the polar jet remains especially strong and oriented across the southwestern states. This will keep perturbations crossing over, or just north of, NM with strong winds continuing to mix down to the surface via diurnal mixing today and more slated for Wednesday. Several locations have already exceeded 60 mph gusts so far this afternoon with the Raton airport being the highest at 72 mph. Winds will slowly decrease late in the afternoon with a quicker reduction in speed around and after sunset. Blowing dust and reduced visibility will also continue to remain a concern through sunset. Precipitation has already been downsized considerably behind the Pacific front with steady to periodic snow continuing over the northern mountains through the afternoon, and much of this will then subside or retreat farther north around sunset with the exception of the high peaks of the Tusas near the NM-CO border. This will be such a small minority of the zone, that the current Winter Storm Warning should be fine to expire on schedule this evening with impacts mostly shifting northward out of our forecast area. Colder overnight temperatures will then be on tap for tonight behind today's earlier Pacific front.

Into Wednesday, the jet will steer another shortwave into UT and western CO by late in the day. This will keep precipitation largely at bay through the late morning and early afternoon Wednesday (except over the far northern mountains along the NM-CO border where strong orographics will persist), but by late afternoon enough PVA and cooling aloft will arrive for additional rain/snow to develop over west central, northwestern, and north central zones. This could potentially warrant a brief Winter Weather Advisory late Wednesday through Wednesday evening over the northern mountains with a few (3 to 6 and locally up to 10) inches of additional snow accumulations. Elsewhere, wind will be the primary story for Wednesday, and while speeds will not be as high as what has been observed today, there is still moderate to high potential for damaging gusts of 60 mph along portions of the central mountain chain and nearby highlands. A belt of 35 to 70 kt southwesterly flow at 700 mb is progged to sag into NM as the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches the Rockies, and a new, deep surface cyclone will set up in eastern CO during the day. Therefore, it seems prudent to issue a High Wind Watch for several central higher terrain zones, and subsequent shifts will likely need to add many surrounding zones to a Wind Advisory where gusts will not be as severe, but still reaching 50 mph. The 700 mb flow does not relax much at all through Wednesday night, just focusing the strongest speeds of 50 to 65 kt over the eastern half of the forecast area, so wind statements will likely need to carry through the overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

The polar jet remains over NM and the southwestern states through Thursday, ushering in another weak shortwave trough in by late afternoon. This shortwave does not currently appear to be quite as vigorous as its predecessors, but will still introduce enough forcing for a light smattering of precip. POPs have been fairly broadbrushed with a light hue of 20 to 30% across western to north central zones, and minimal accumulation is projected. Interestingly, the 700 mb flow does show indications of weakening considerably Thursday, reducing to 25 to 40 kt over much of NM, and this will consequently reduce our gust potential. It will still be windy, particularly over northeast to east central NM, but gusts of 35 to 45 mph will seem more palatable compared to preceding days. Surrounding areas will stay more in the breezy to windy category with gusts of 20 to 35 mph being commonplace Thursday afternoon.

A deep upper level low over the Pacific Northwestern states will shed a vort max southeastward Thursday that will then make its way toward the Four Corners by Friday. This wave will pack more of a punch with a notable thermal trough accompanying, and this will yield a tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF (translating to roughly 3 to 6 inches of additional mountain snow) over northwestern to north central zones. Wind speeds will also increase again Friday, but there are some inconsistencies with the placement of the 700 mb jet and lee-side surface low which will dictate the severity of the winds. Temperatures will have been inching below normal by a few degrees Thursday and Friday over most zones with the eastern plains hanging onto more seasonable readings.

Temperatures will cool a few degrees more into Saturday in the wake of the late Friday frontal intrusion, but otherwise a respite from the unsettled pattern will arrive as a ridge builds over the Rockies through the weekend. Dry conditions will hold through Monday and Tuesday of next week, but breezes will likely start to increase as the ridge breaks down, succumbing to stronger zonal flow.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Winds have weakened around the region, with most areas below 15 kts as of 06Z. Moist upslope flow has resulted in the development of mid-level clouds and scattered snow showers in and around the western and northern high terrain and this will likely persist through the overnight hours, with intermittent light snow showers.

Strong southwest/west winds are likely again Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to 50 kts commonplace across the entire region. Generally speaking, winds will be slightly weaker than Tuesday in eastern NM and slightly higher in central and western areas. A Pacific cold front will intrude from the west around 18Z, surging eastward toward the Rio Grande Valley shortly after 00Z. A brief period of stronger winds and blowing dust/snow are possible along the leading edge of the front, with winds shifting around to the west/northwest in the evening. Strong winds will persist into the evening hours tomorrow in eastern NM as the front sweeps across the plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Very windy conditions continue this afternoon, especially across the eastern half of NM. In the wake of today's earlier Pacific cold front, temperatures have dropped and humidity has increased with many locales hovering at or above 20 percent which will continue to lower the critical threat through the late afternoon. Winds will decouple and subside around sunset, so this will squelch any remaining critical outliers this evening.

Unfortunately, the strong to severe winds will redevelop Wednesday, as a speed max aloft persists and another lee-side surface low takes shape. Lowering dewpoints will carry RH back down into critical ranges below 15% over the eastern plains, and this remains the area of highest confidence for widespread, long duration critical conditions Wednesday. More marginally critical RH values (15 to 20%) are still slated for the middle to lower Rio Grande valley (Albuquerque to Socorro), and these marginal RH values along with lower ERC values are keeping confidence lower for widespread, long duration critical conditions there. Satellite Land Information Systems soil moisture products are also indicating a mosaic of 25 to 35% sub surface relative soil moisture, and in contrast, the eastern plains are ranging much lower from 10 to 25%. Based on this information, will hold off on upgrading the current Fire Weather Watch for the FWZ 106.

Although not as strong as preceding days, Thursday's winds could also pose concerns over northeast to east central areas where humidity will also lower to a 15 to 20% range. The winds strengthen more into Friday with the area of lowest humidity sagging southward into the east central plains south of I-40. Will not issue any Watches just yet, but both days will warrant close attention.

Fortunately, winds and the critical threat relax considerably into the upcoming weekend as a ridge aloft builds in.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 32 44 17 37 / 30 60 30 20 Dulce........................... 22 37 7 31 / 60 90 70 40 Cuba............................ 23 44 15 34 / 10 60 80 50 Gallup.......................... 23 40 11 38 / 5 50 50 40 El Morro........................ 21 40 16 36 / 5 40 60 40 Grants.......................... 19 46 15 41 / 5 20 50 30 Quemado......................... 24 45 21 42 / 0 10 40 30 Magdalena....................... 29 51 28 47 / 0 0 10 20 Datil........................... 24 44 24 42 / 0 0 20 20 Reserve......................... 24 48 26 45 / 0 20 50 40 Glenwood........................ 24 53 30 48 / 0 20 50 50 Chama........................... 19 32 2 24 / 60 90 80 30 Los Alamos...................... 26 45 19 37 / 10 40 60 30 Pecos........................... 21 48 18 38 / 5 20 50 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 25 38 13 32 / 20 60 60 20 Red River....................... 18 30 7 24 / 20 70 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 12 36 4 29 / 20 50 70 20 Taos............................ 22 43 13 35 / 20 60 60 20 Mora............................ 21 46 15 39 / 10 20 60 10 Espanola........................ 24 52 20 42 / 10 30 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 26 47 21 38 / 10 30 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 50 20 41 / 5 20 50 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 33 56 29 47 / 5 10 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 30 57 27 49 / 5 5 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 27 59 27 51 / 5 5 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 56 27 48 / 5 10 20 20 Belen........................... 25 60 27 53 / 0 0 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 30 58 27 48 / 5 10 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 24 59 25 51 / 5 0 20 20 Corrales........................ 29 58 27 49 / 5 10 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 26 59 26 52 / 0 0 20 10 Placitas........................ 31 54 26 44 / 5 10 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 29 56 26 48 / 5 10 20 20 Socorro......................... 28 62 31 57 / 0 0 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 28 50 23 41 / 5 10 50 30 Tijeras......................... 29 51 25 43 / 5 10 40 30 Edgewood........................ 25 53 23 44 / 0 5 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 55 21 46 / 0 0 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 24 50 20 41 / 0 0 20 5 Mountainair..................... 26 55 25 47 / 0 0 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 25 55 25 49 / 0 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 30 57 32 54 / 0 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 30 50 31 48 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 24 49 18 43 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 23 50 18 45 / 0 0 10 0 Springer........................ 25 54 21 47 / 0 0 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 24 50 20 43 / 0 5 20 0 Clayton......................... 33 60 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 26 55 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 31 65 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 29 61 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 31 68 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 32 68 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 31 69 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 65 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 33 70 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 32 62 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 31 61 33 59 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ201-203- 204-206-207-209-211-216>222-224-225-241.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ230>232-234-235-237.

High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ205-208.

Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NMZ106.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ202-210.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ212>215-223-226>229-233-239-240.