textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Gusty showers may produce erratic wind gusts in far western New Mexico through the evening, then in western and central New Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Dry storms may cause new fire starts Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

- Increasing chances for beneficial, but light, rain and high mountain snow late Tuesday and Wedenesday.

- West winds trend stronger this week. There is a moderate (30-50%) chance of an increased threat of rapid fire spread in eastern New Mexico Monday, with higher chances Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 136 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Geopotential heights are starting to decrease some today with the center of high pressure aloft shifting farther southeast of NM. Still, a plethora of near to record-breaking high temperatures are in the works for this afternoon as heights are still 1 to 2 standard deviations above climatology for late March. Our lee-side surface trough will reappear east of the front range this afternoon, leading to downsloping and compressional warming in the eastern zones while a westerly component prevails in western zones as well. A subtle and ill-defined upper trough is pushing toward the Baja, and mid to high level moisture is preceding it and working toward western NM. This has already transpired into high-based showers and even low-topped convection over Sonora, Chihuahua, and AZ over the past 18 hours, and some of this activity will struggle to creep into our western zones through the evening. Odds of observing lightning strikes are quite low, so the mention of dry storms/lightning were kept out of the forecast with better chances on Monday. Broken cirrus and scattered mid level altocu/altostratus will keep overnight lows mild and relatively warm tonight.

The lee-side surface trough deepens on Monday (~997-999 mb), and 700 mb winds increase slightly to 20 to 25 kt. This will increase surface winds slightly with prognostications of deep vertical mixing on Monday, even with periodic broken mid to high cloud cover as the Baja trough moves inland over the Sierra Madre Occidental and other southern chains of the Rockies. Increased temperature lapse rates (LI's to 0 of -3 C) will increase chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms in western zones Monday afternoon with activity congealing and diminishing over central zones through the evening hours. NBM POPs were still quite high, and these were reduced and tempered slightly, as the footprints of measurable rainfall should be quite small and isolated given the inverted-V profiles characterized by high LCL's and still a very dry boundary layer. Gusty winds and lightning will likely be the bigger impacts, as evaporative cooling potential is very large and DCAPE values could exceed 500 to 1000 J/kg in many western and central zones. Daytime high temperatures will reduce by a couple to a few degrees in western zones due to increasing clouds and showers, but all areas should still run 10 to 20 degrees above average again Monday afternoon. Overnight low temperatures Monday night will be even milder/warmer than tonight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A cold front is modeled to slide down the plains Tuesday, but latest guidance suggests it will get held up in Union county, not making much headway into the state through the afternoon. This poses some uncertainty with temperatures in far northeastern NM, but a few to several degrees of cooling does look to impact Clayton and vicinity. This front will disrupt the lee-side surface cyclone, lowering wind speeds some in northeastern zones while breezy to low-end windy conditions redevelop elsewhere. The 700 mb winds reach 25 to 35 kt over northwestern zones which would be a likely surface gust outcome Tuesday. Subtle, mesoscale perturbations will be embedded in the west southwesterly flow aloft, and this will keep isolated showers and thunderstorms going Tuesday with the highland zones being the most likely to receive measurable rain.

On Wednesday, models are coming into better consensus with the next shortwave trough passage over northern NM and the associated rain and high mountain snow that will favor north central zones. A distinct thermal trough is projected with this feature, indicating it will have more dynamical forcing for precipitation, but the window of opportunity will be brief and fleeting. Blended QPF suggests north central zones would receive between 0.1 and 0.25 inch QPF with high peaks near the NM-CO border squeezing out 0.5 inch or more of liquid equivalent, translating to a couple to a few inches of snow above 9kft. Higher resolution models such as the NAM and new RRFS do indicate some convection along the Pacific front during the mid day time frame with the RRFS carrying activity into south central to east central zones. Winds will also have to be watched, as many central to northeastern zones could encroach upon the 50 mph wind gust criteria for a Wind Advisory Wednesday afternoon.

A closed low then moves inland over the Pacific Northwest states Thursday and then into the central to northern Great Plains by late Friday. While details continue to get hashed out on the exact track and depth of this feature, it looks to cross north of NM, offering a dry slot over NM Thursday before a dry Pacific front arrives Friday. This scenario will favor widespread breezy to windy conditions each day. Temperatures would bump up Thursday, only to start decreasing late Friday and into Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through at least Monday morning. A few virga showers may result in gusty and erratic winds through the evening across southwest and west central NM. Mid and upper level moisture advecting into NM will increase mid and high clouds over the next 24 hours. More coverage of virga or light rain showers will impact western and central NM Monday afternoon. Enough instability exists for a few thunderstorms as well. Gusty and erratic winds may accompany any shower or thunderstorm activity. These winds may result in localized blowing dust and brief reductions in visibility.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Concerns through the evening will center around near to record- breaking high temperatures, very widespread low humidity (but especially in the eastern plains), widespread breezy conditions, and a low threat for gusty virga (evaporating rain) showers in western zones. These concerns will fade through the evening.

Into Monday, breezy to windy conditions will return to much of northern NM with low humidity blanketing eastern zones contrasted by very minor increases in western areas. The Fire Weather Watch for northeastern zones will continue with confidence lowering that the wind criteria will be met. In western zones, an increased threat for gusty showers and dry lightning will develop as mid to upper level moisture continues to feed into the area.

On Tuesday, winds will increase a bit more, particularly over northern zones with more areas prone to observe gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Humidity will be increasing to a 15 to 20% range Tuesday afternoon, so this will again make the potential for critical conditions marginal with humidity being the limiter on this day. A continued threat for dry lightning will exist on Tuesday with storms moving more into the interior, or central areas of of NM.

A windy period is then shaping up for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with other weather elements varying and changing day-by-day. Wednesday's highest winds will be found along and east of the central mountain chain, but attendant showers and thunderstorms associated with a shortwave trough passage will keep humidity elevated above traditional thresholds for critical fire weather. This will change into Thursday as a dry slot aloft and warmer temperatures develop, likely leading to an increased threat for critical conditions, especially in eastern NM zones. Windy conditions on Friday will then be complicated by the arrival of a dry Pacific front late in the day, and the timing of this front will likely dictate how dire the threat is for critical conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 44 78 47 74 / 0 10 20 10 Dulce........................... 33 74 35 70 / 0 10 30 20 Cuba............................ 39 73 40 69 / 0 20 30 20 Gallup.......................... 36 74 41 71 / 0 30 40 10 El Morro........................ 41 69 43 67 / 0 40 40 10 Grants.......................... 39 73 41 71 / 0 30 20 10 Quemado......................... 43 70 44 70 / 5 40 40 20 Magdalena....................... 48 73 48 72 / 5 30 20 20 Datil........................... 45 69 45 68 / 5 30 30 20 Reserve......................... 38 75 37 73 / 10 40 20 20 Glenwood........................ 42 81 42 78 / 10 30 10 30 Chama........................... 35 67 35 62 / 0 10 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 49 71 48 68 / 0 20 20 20 Pecos........................... 41 74 42 71 / 0 10 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 70 40 65 / 0 10 20 20 Red River....................... 36 62 37 58 / 0 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 29 66 36 62 / 0 10 20 30 Taos............................ 33 74 36 70 / 0 10 20 10 Mora............................ 41 72 42 68 / 0 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 41 78 43 75 / 0 10 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 44 74 45 72 / 0 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 77 44 76 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 77 52 76 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 80 53 79 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 82 46 81 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 81 50 79 / 0 20 20 10 Belen........................... 44 82 47 81 / 0 20 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 47 81 49 78 / 0 20 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 41 81 44 80 / 0 20 20 10 Corrales........................ 47 82 49 80 / 0 20 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 43 81 46 80 / 0 20 20 10 Placitas........................ 51 77 51 75 / 0 20 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 80 51 78 / 0 20 20 10 Socorro......................... 51 83 51 82 / 5 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 73 48 71 / 0 20 30 10 Tijeras......................... 50 74 48 72 / 0 20 30 10 Edgewood........................ 46 75 46 73 / 0 10 30 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 77 40 75 / 0 10 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 44 74 44 71 / 0 5 20 10 Mountainair..................... 46 76 45 74 / 0 10 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 45 76 46 73 / 0 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 50 81 49 77 / 0 5 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 45 75 46 71 / 0 10 10 10 Capulin......................... 39 75 43 68 / 0 5 0 20 Raton........................... 36 79 40 72 / 0 5 0 20 Springer........................ 37 81 41 75 / 0 5 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 44 77 44 72 / 0 5 5 10 Clayton......................... 50 85 53 77 / 5 5 0 10 Roy............................. 45 81 47 75 / 0 5 0 10 Conchas......................... 44 89 49 84 / 0 5 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 46 84 51 80 / 0 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 48 91 51 85 / 0 0 5 5 Clovis.......................... 50 91 52 86 / 0 0 10 5 Portales........................ 47 91 49 87 / 0 5 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 44 89 48 85 / 0 5 10 5 Roswell......................... 49 91 51 89 / 0 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 50 84 50 82 / 0 20 10 10 Elk............................. 47 82 47 79 / 0 20 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ104-123.