textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

- A Pacific system is bringing widespread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and mountain snow through early Saturday. Several inches of snow are forecast above 8,500ft with minor travel impacts possible in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring strong to damaging westerly winds from Tuesday through Thursday, with potential for more precipitation across western and north central NM.

- There is an increasing threat for the rapid spread of fire across eastern and portions of south central NM from Tuesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1135 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

The Pacific low is lifting northeast from northwest MX into AZ, with a steady stream of Pacific moisture over the region per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Top-down moistening of the atmosphere is underway and forcing is on the uptrend early this afternoon, resulting in an increase in areas of rain with embedded showers. This trend is modeled to continue overnight as the 562dam 500mb low turns east over NM and provides continued forcing as it moves east across the state. Rain is a lock for much of the area, with storm total rainfall generally ranging from 0.10-0.30". The snowfall portion of the forecast hasn't changed much from previous cycles and if anything has trended down for mid-slope areas, with the main impacts still forecast at ski-resort level in the northern mountains. Low probabilities for lightning and graupel will continue into the evening hours before diminishing. Precipitation will wind-down quickly Saturday morning as the upper low ejects east into the TX Panhandle, with brisk northerly winds developing on the backside across the eastern plains. An upper level ridge will follow behind the departing upper low on Saturday, bringing a near-ideal setup for fog development Saturday night that will be largely dependent on the amount of rain we get and how much moisture lingers in the lowest portion of the boundary layer.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1135 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

The upper level ridge will shift east of NM on Sunday and give way to increasing southwest flow aloft and a deepening lee side trough going into Monday. As a result, warming with breezy conditions are forecast across much of eastern NM on Sunday afternoon, followed by breezy to locally windy and even warmer conditions areawide on Monday. The polar jet stream is still forecast to turn inland over Socal on Monday then spread east across our region through Thursday, bringing strong to potentially damaging winds that will favor areas along/east of the central mountain chain. The 12Z GFS 300mb wind speeds are forecast to peak around an impressive 170kts on Tuesday over northern NM, but will otherwise hover in the 150-160kt range. There is a high chance (70-80%) of wind highlight issuance for the Tue-Thu period. The polar jet will also bring Pacific moisture and orographic forcing for rounds of precipitation across western and north central NM from Tue-Thu, favoring the west-facing slopes and peaks of the mountains. Winds are forecast to trend down significantly by Friday as the jet stream weakens and pulls north of the area, but conditions will likely remain unsettled.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail, but deterioration is forecast later today and tonight with the onset and expansion of showers. Snow levels will be high, so rain is forecast at area terminals. However, low probabilities for thunder and graupel exist as well. Widespread mountain obscurations and MVFR conditions will prevail by early this evening. IFR conditions are likely overnight at KSAF and KGUP. Improvement is forecast Saturday morning, with all TAF sites going VFR by 17Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through Sunday, but a critical fire weather pattern will develop early through mid next week, impacting much of eastern New Mexico and including the lower Rio Grande Valley. A moist Pacific system will move over the state tonight through early Saturday, bringing much higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation. A warming and drying trend will begin Sunday and continue through Monday, with low humidity and a deepening lee side trough bringing elevated fire weather conditions to much of eastern NM on Monday afternoon. The jet stream will move over the region from Tuesday through Thursday, bringing strong westerly winds and critical fire weather conditions to the eastern plains/highlands and the lower Rio Grande Valley. The jet stream will also bring Pacific moisture and chances for wetting precipitation to the western and northern mountains from Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 34 56 29 60 / 70 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 54 19 59 / 90 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 50 24 57 / 100 30 0 0 Gallup.......................... 23 55 18 61 / 90 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 51 25 60 / 90 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 27 56 20 64 / 80 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 49 24 63 / 70 20 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 55 32 62 / 80 5 0 0 Datil........................... 32 49 27 61 / 60 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 27 59 23 65 / 60 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 30 64 27 68 / 70 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 48 21 53 / 100 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 34 52 32 56 / 100 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 54 26 60 / 90 30 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 49 27 55 / 90 30 0 0 Red River....................... 26 37 21 43 / 90 50 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 20 42 12 51 / 100 50 0 0 Taos............................ 30 54 21 59 / 100 30 0 0 Mora............................ 29 52 24 64 / 90 30 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 59 26 63 / 100 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 53 31 58 / 100 20 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 34 56 28 59 / 100 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 57 36 63 / 90 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 59 33 64 / 90 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 62 30 66 / 90 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 39 60 32 64 / 90 10 0 0 Belen........................... 36 62 27 66 / 90 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 38 61 32 65 / 90 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 62 27 66 / 90 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 38 62 32 66 / 90 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 62 29 66 / 90 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 38 56 34 61 / 90 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 38 60 32 64 / 90 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 65 32 68 / 70 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 52 32 58 / 90 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 36 53 32 59 / 90 20 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 55 28 62 / 90 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 57 22 64 / 90 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 32 53 29 60 / 80 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 34 56 29 62 / 80 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 34 56 29 62 / 80 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 37 59 33 64 / 70 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 34 52 32 61 / 60 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 47 24 61 / 70 40 0 0 Raton........................... 32 52 22 63 / 80 40 0 0 Springer........................ 33 56 20 68 / 70 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 55 26 64 / 80 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 39 54 31 65 / 60 30 0 0 Roy............................. 34 56 27 64 / 70 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 35 64 29 72 / 60 20 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 60 29 68 / 60 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 37 62 29 71 / 50 20 0 0 Clovis.......................... 41 62 34 70 / 50 20 0 0 Portales........................ 40 62 32 71 / 50 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 37 63 29 68 / 50 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 41 66 34 68 / 30 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 37 63 33 71 / 20 5 0 0 Elk............................. 33 62 29 70 / 40 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for NMZ210-213- 214.