textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Arroyos, rivers and streams will continue to run high Sunday after recent rainfall. Stay away from river banks.

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times this morning and Monday morning. Highest confidence exists near the central higher terrain, protected mountain valleys, and parts of eastern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

It's a quiet early October night across the Land of Enchantment. A weak backdoor front is sliding through northeast NM early this morning. Low clouds will initially develop across Raton Pass, the south central highlands, and some of the Caprock before sunrise this morning as the backdoor front continues sagging south and west through the gaps of the central mountain chain around sunrise. This will result in some breezy to locally gusty east canyon winds in Santa Fe, eastern ABQ, and Carrizozo. Low clouds, along with low (<15%) chances for some patchy fog and drizzle, will further develop across most areas along and east of the central mountain chain mid this morning before slowly eroding away from north to south early to mid this afternoon probably lingering into the evening along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Meanwhile east winds in the middle RGV will spread west to western NM mid to late morning as daytime mixing taps into 30 kt easterly flow at 700 mb. This will result in breezy to locally gusty east winds (wind gusts of gusts of 20 to 35 mph) across the west central mountains and near canyon openings in the middle RGV during the day before tapering off around sunset. High temperatures near normal for early October west of the central mountain chain and 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early October along and east of the central mountain chain due to the low clouds later this morning.

Low clouds redevelop along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, east central and southeast plains along with the San Augustin Plains early Monday morning burning off mid to late Monday morning with it lingering longest potentially into the early afternoon across the southeast plains and on the Caprock. A few showers with an isolated storm or two across the northern high terrain Monday afternoon. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to today for most, except 3 to 7 degrees warmer across northeast NM due to light downslope southwest winds at the base of a surface lee trough east of the Rockies.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Upper level ridging shifts west to southern CA Tuesday as a weak ill defined shortwave moves east from the Great Basin to the Four Corners. This shortwave will result in a few light showers and an isolated storm or two across the north central mountains Tuesday afternoon. The shortwave/ill-defined low moves south over the state Wednesday with it's axis horizontally oriented from east to west. Daytime heating under the shortwave axis will result in a few isolated showers and storms across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon. This disturbance looks to close off into a more defined upper low over southern NM and far West Texas Thursday. Precipitation associated with the upper low looks to remain mostly south of the CWA at this time with some isolated showers and storms across the Sacramento Mountains and southern Chaves County Thursday afternoon. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has the upper low meandering east-northeast to the TX Big Bend and Permian Basin Friday resulting in some low chances for showers and storms across southeast NM Friday afternoon. That upper low opens up and exits east next weekend with southwest flow over the state in advance of a new upper level trough over the Pacific coast and Great Basin. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for lower elevations across western and central NM and upper 70s to mid 80s across the eastern plains Tuesday through Friday. Highs across western areas cool slightly into the mid to upper 60s next weekend due to lowering heights in advance of the Pacific trough.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Low clouds with MVFR to IFR ceilings is developing across portions of the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, near Raton Pass and southeast New Mexico. Low clouds across eastern NM will expand in coverage mid this morning. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, breezy to locally gusty east canyon gap winds will develop mid this morning across eastern ABQ (including KABQ) around sunrise spreading west to KGNT and KGUP late this morning. Peak gusts of around 20 to 30 kts across the west central mountains and canyon openings into the middle RGV. East winds taper off around sunset. Low clouds with some patchy drizzle along and east of the central mountain chain slowly taper off from north to south during the afternoon hours lingering longest across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Low clouds with patchy fog and drizzle and resultant MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop once again along and east of the central mountain chain and in the San Augustin Plains early Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

No critical fire weather concerns are expected through late next week. Low clouds and some patchy fog along and east of the central mountain chain this morning before burning off for most by early this afternoon. Breezy to locally gusty east winds across west central New Mexico and canyon openings in the middle Rio Grande Valley late this morning through sunset. Seasonably mild temperatures and light winds prevail Monday through Friday. Some isolated showers and storms across the higher terrain Monday through Wednesday, far southern areas Thursday, and far southeast areas Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 78 53 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 76 42 74 44 / 5 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 70 46 71 48 / 5 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 75 44 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 42 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 71 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 69 46 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 67 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 44 75 45 / 0 0 5 5 Glenwood........................ 80 48 78 50 / 0 0 5 5 Chama........................... 70 41 69 43 / 20 20 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 70 47 70 50 / 10 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 68 43 71 47 / 20 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 42 71 45 / 10 0 10 0 Red River....................... 63 36 67 36 / 10 0 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 65 27 69 26 / 10 0 20 5 Taos............................ 71 42 72 44 / 10 0 10 0 Mora............................ 65 42 71 46 / 20 0 10 0 Espanola........................ 75 47 75 48 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 48 70 49 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 47 72 48 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 50 74 53 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 54 74 55 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 78 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 78 52 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 77 49 76 51 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 78 50 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 77 50 76 52 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 78 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 74 49 74 51 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 77 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 45 70 47 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 71 47 71 50 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 68 45 71 47 / 20 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 70 44 73 44 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 65 45 69 48 / 20 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 68 44 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 68 45 69 47 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 49 71 51 / 10 5 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 45 66 43 / 20 20 10 0 Capulin......................... 67 44 73 46 / 5 5 0 0 Raton........................... 71 44 75 46 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 71 44 77 45 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 66 44 71 46 / 20 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 71 50 77 54 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 69 47 72 47 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 75 53 78 54 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 73 50 75 52 / 20 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 76 51 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 74 52 75 55 / 10 5 0 0 Portales........................ 76 52 77 55 / 10 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 75 52 76 54 / 20 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 57 76 55 / 20 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 71 51 73 51 / 20 20 20 0 Elk............................. 67 49 69 49 / 30 40 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.