textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas Tuesday. More isolated fire conditions on Wedesday.

- Temperatures warm significantly this week, threatening record highs mid to late week in eastern and central New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Punxsutawney Phil may have been right about a longer winter for the eastern part of the United States, but this groundhog missed the mark on New Mexico's weather because warm, spring-like conditions are approaching fast. Upper level ridging will continue to amplify over the Desert Southwest, raising temperatures across the area over the next few days. However, a slight flattening of the ridge on Tuesday and Wednesday will allow for some stronger flow aloft to stream across New Mexico from the northwest. Some stronger 35 to 45 kt 700 mb winds look to mix down to the surface during the afternoon hours, creating some nuisance crosswinds along the central mountain chain and east towards the central highlands and east- central plains. Bumped up forecast winds into the 25 to 30 kt range for I-40 corridor in eastern New Mexico on Tuesday. Didn't have the confidence to issue any Wind Advisories since most locations should remain under criteria and only gusting up to 45 mph. However, if the sub 1000 mb lee side surface trough in northeast New Mexico does trend stronger, gusts greater than 50 mph may be observed at typical windy locations such as Clines Corners.

Downsloping winds during the afternoon will also aid in warming up the environment over the eastern plains, increasing high temperatures into the low 80s all the way from Clayton down to Roswell. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the east-central plains, central highlands, northeast highlands, and northeast plains due to these warm, dry, and windy conditions creating critical fire conditions during the afternoon.

The threat of fire weather is less certain on Wednesday given that wind speeds trend down slightly and relative humidity values climb above critical thresholds. Winds will still be quite breezy (near Wind Advisory criteria) in the central highlands, but remain fairly light across the rest of the state at 10 to 15 kts. The main area of concern for rapid fire spread will be along isolated parts of the east-central plains and parts of the southeast plains where there is a currently a low (20%) chance of critical fire conditions during the afternoon.

Temperatures look to climb even higher on Wednesday, into the mid to low 70s across the middle Rio Grande Valley and into the mid 80s for southeast New Mexico. Several temperature records are threatened across the state, including at Albuquerque, Roswell, and Tucumcari. Overall, high temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1244 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

A shortwave perturbation moving through the great plains will push a backdoor front across eastern New Mexico on Wednesday night, cooling temperatures for Thursday. Temperatures trend back up for the weekend, once again up to 15 to 25 degrees above average areawide. Highs on Saturday could climb into the low 80s for parts of the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley and over in the eastern plains, threatening to break new record highs once more. Upper level ridging will persist into the beginning of next week, leading to higher confidence of warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions across the state. However, as mentioned in the previous discussion, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of a few backdoor frontal passages early next week. There is still large model spread and therefore low confidence for forecast high temperatures across eastern New Mexico for Sunday onwards. The timing of these fronts could be the difference between a near average 70 degree day or a near-record 90 degree day for some locations such as Roswell.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the period for all sites across the forecast area. Light and variable winds for western and central areas during the afternoon, with some slightly breezier southwest winds for eastern New Mexico. High clouds will be streaming into the state from the northwest through the remainder of the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions exist in eastern New Mexico this afternoon, but become critical on Tuesday as stronger winds and a drier environment takes hold. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to below 10% on Tuesday afternoon for eastern areas. This combined with 20ft winds of 20 to 35 mph will likely create several hours of critical fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain. The risk of rapid fire spread is much lower for Wednesday, with only about a 20% chance of critical fire weather conditions for parts of eastern New Mexico. The highest threat will focus along the south-central highlands and isolated parts of the east-central plains. The main limiting factor for Wednesday will be higher relative humidity values in the 20 to 30% range. Warm and dry conditions will persist into the beginning of next week, but conditions should remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 28 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 18 57 22 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 22 67 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 31 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 24 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 37 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 32 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 73 33 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 31 74 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 22 51 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 33 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 31 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 57 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 17 55 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 24 61 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 33 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 27 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 66 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 73 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 71 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 75 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 34 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 74 35 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 71 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 37 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 33 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 32 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 35 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 69 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 32 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 32 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 35 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 66 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 30 72 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 26 73 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 74 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 35 80 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 31 75 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 32 83 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 35 84 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 81 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 35 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 29 82 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 30 84 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 38 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 36 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.