textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 508 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain each afternoon may produce erratic wind gusts with localized moderate rainfall amounts.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

- Light rain will expand across western and central New Mexico over the weekend with the potential for more widespread rain early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The ridge of high pressure in CO is on its way to getting elongated with considerable weakening projected today while the weak low west of the Four Corners quickly gets absorbed into another low in southwest TX. This will leave behind a light (5-10 kt) and generally easterly wind aloft over NM today. Surface dewpoints will range from the upper 20's (deg F) in west central NM to the 40's in the eastern plains and PWATs will range from about 0.3 to 0.7 inch on a similar graduated orientation, not a lot of fuel for deep, moist convection today. This can be reiterated on theta-E prognoses, and consequently the coverage of thunderstorms should be very sparse and isolated, generally staying relegated to high terrain areas (above 8,000 ft) where south-facing slopes can allow an updraft to sustain itself today. These will continue to be relatively high-based and low-topped cells. Temperatures will run within a degree or two of yesterday's highs, or near to 10 degrees above average for early October.

The previously mentioned upper high and low will get further absorbed eastward, posing no effect on NM weather into Friday. A cold core low will drop farther south, closer to 30N, 130W, over the open eastern Pacific, and soon-to-be tropical storm Rachel will be aligning farther south southwest. This will start to introduce a hint of west southwest flow aloft into NM with PWATs still remaining fairly low (0.4 to 0.6 inch) in NM, but increasing in AZ. Theta-e prognoses indicate the best instability aligned over the western high terrain of NM where again storms will be quite sparse. A near-persistence forecast should hold for temperatures Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Things turn a bit more interesting for western to north central NM Saturday into Sunday as the remnants of Rachel and the aforementioned eastern Pacific cold core low merge offshore of the Baja and then move into southern CA and AZ. The deepest moisture will be drawn into the lower Colorado river basin between CA and AZ with more subdued and modified moisture coming into NM (PWATs rising to 0.8 to 1.0 inch). Stiffer westerly flow aloft will arrive Saturday (15 to 25 kt at 500 mb), turning more southwesterly and increasing more on Sunday (25 to 50 kt at 500 mb). With shortening day length and a lower solar elevation angle, diurnal destabilization is getting harder to come by, and model projections of instability are quite modest (just a couple to a few hundred joules of surface-based CAPE). This coupled with the quick steering flow would likely keep storms spotty to scattered over the western half of the forecast area with some orographics helping regenerate showers and storms over optimally northwest-to-southeast oriented slopes. Overall QPF is quite light with most of these areas projected to receive 0.25 inch or less through Monday morning.

By Monday and Tuesday another deeper cold core low will be dropping into southern CA while the remnants of the next tropical storm, Simon, get absorbed into the warm sector ahead of it via south southwesterly flow. There are a lot of uncertainties still with the track and pace of both the cold core low and Simon, so pinpointing how and if the moisture will stay intact is a bit daunting this far out. The 00Z deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to align subtropical moisture and forcing aloft, bringing fairly widespread rain for much of NM Monday and Tuesday before transitioning to northern NM as cold core low dynamics takeover into early Wednesday. The ensemble means are of course more subdued with the PWATs, but still show some ranges in values from northwest to southeastern zones (0.7 to 1.2 inch) with the GEFS running on the higher side, not only on PWATs but also on QPF. For now, official QPF is generally staying between 0.1 to 0.5 inches on Monday, rising to a 0.25 to 1.0 inch range on a more widespread basis for Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Mostly clear skies are in place across northern and central New Mexico with just a few mid level clouds (ceilings of 7,000-8,000 ft) in place over southeastern parts of the state. Light winds will prevail in most locations through the morning, but a northerly drainage breeze could turn a bit stiff (10-15 kt) in the upper Rio Grande valley around and shortly after dawn. Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will be very sparse and isolated over high terrain mountains with slow movement that will prevent them from moving very far. Gusty outflow winds to 40 kt and a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out immediately beneath and near any of these thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon before they die out through the early evening. A clearing trend with light breezes is forecast tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Soil moisture products from Land Information Systems continue to show good soil moisture retention from the widespread rainfall in late September. This will continue to keep fuels on the moist side for most of northern and central NM. Seasonal freezes have begun in high elevations, generally at or above 8,000 feet, and this will lead to some curing of fuels, but remaining areas look to be set up for later freezes with no significant cold air intrusions foreseen. Additional rainfall is slated this weekend into early next week with lighter amounts first hitting spotty areas in western NM Saturday and Sunday before a potentially more widespread and soaking event Monday and Tuesday of next week. There is still much uncertainty with rain chances and amounts Monday through Wednesday of next week, but at this time no bouts of critical fire weather are foreseen. Winds will strengthen to breezy levels on Saturday and to the windy category on Sunday, but fortunately minimum humidity levels will remain elevated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 81 52 80 54 / 0 0 5 10 Dulce........................... 77 41 75 44 / 5 5 0 10 Cuba............................ 74 45 72 47 / 10 5 0 5 Gallup.......................... 79 44 76 47 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 74 43 73 45 / 0 0 5 5 Grants.......................... 76 44 75 47 / 0 0 5 5 Quemado......................... 76 45 74 47 / 5 5 10 10 Magdalena....................... 73 49 72 51 / 0 5 0 5 Datil........................... 72 44 71 46 / 5 5 0 5 Reserve......................... 79 47 77 48 / 20 5 10 10 Glenwood........................ 83 53 82 53 / 30 10 5 10 Chama........................... 71 41 69 43 / 10 10 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 73 49 72 50 / 5 5 5 5 Pecos........................... 74 44 72 45 / 5 5 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 42 70 45 / 10 5 0 5 Red River....................... 65 35 62 39 / 10 10 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 69 28 67 32 / 10 5 5 5 Taos............................ 75 43 73 45 / 5 5 0 0 Mora............................ 72 41 71 43 / 5 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 79 49 78 50 / 5 5 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 74 47 72 48 / 5 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 46 75 48 / 5 5 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 53 77 54 / 0 5 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 55 78 56 / 0 5 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 53 79 54 / 0 5 0 5 Belen........................... 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 82 51 80 53 / 0 5 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 81 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 81 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 81 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 79 51 77 53 / 0 5 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 80 53 79 55 / 0 5 0 5 Socorro......................... 80 55 80 55 / 0 5 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 48 72 50 / 5 5 0 5 Tijeras......................... 76 50 74 51 / 0 5 0 5 Edgewood........................ 75 48 74 49 / 0 5 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 44 76 46 / 0 5 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 73 48 72 49 / 0 5 0 5 Mountainair..................... 74 48 72 50 / 0 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 74 49 73 49 / 5 5 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 76 53 75 54 / 10 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 68 48 68 49 / 20 10 5 5 Capulin......................... 75 47 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 79 44 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 80 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 81 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 77 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 79 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 53 78 53 / 5 5 0 0 Elk............................. 74 50 74 50 / 10 5 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.