textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk of lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds.

- There will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding along and west of the central mountain chain today and Sunday, then mainly along and west of the continental divide and over the south central mountains Monday and Tuesday. - There is a high risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars today, and a moderate risk Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Monsoon moisture with seasonably moist PWATs around 1-1.3" will remain in place over NM through the weekend as mid level high pressure centers persist over the CO/WY border and also on the TX/LA coast. In addition, a weak upper level low will remain stalled over southeast NM and west TX today, then begin to migrate slowly westward toward El Paso on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will generally drift southwestward today, then more toward the west on Sunday. The upper high over CO will begin steering drier air over northeast NM on Sunday cutting off convection east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Some cells during the afternoon and evening today and Sunday will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1"/hr with a risk of isolated flash flooding. The NBM's 90th percentile QPF indicates the main flash flood threat each day will be over southern and western parts of the forecast area, where a few locations may receive over 2 inches of rain accumulation. The REFS LPMM suggests there will also be an isolated flash flood threat farther north along the central mountain chain and into the central valley today and Sunday. Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for the extremely vulnerable burn scars of the south central mountains this afternoon, where high res models depict numerous storms redeveloping again today.

With all of the moisture and convection, high temps will vary from near to around 9 degrees below 1991-2020 averages today and Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The aforementioned upper highs will consolidate into a stronger (595 dam) high pressure system, initially over CO on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the broad upper high is forecast to drift gradually southeastward recentering over NE NM and the OK and TX panhandles, where it should build to around 597 dam. The upper high will then recenter more over eastern NM Thursday and Friday. This will result in a warming trend as the week progresses. On Monday and Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue along and west of the central mountain chain, but PWATs are forecast to fall about 20 percent. This should relegate the risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding to places along and west of the continental divide, and also to the south central mountains. There will then be a notable downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, an uptick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity is expected as disturbances embedded in the periphery of the ridge track northward along the NM/AZ border and a moist backdoor front moves into the northeast quarter of the state.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will return along and west of the central mountain chain with scattered to isolated activity farther east. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts potentially over 45 KT. Storm motion will mostly be toward the southwest or west at speeds from 5-20 KT. Some cells over southwest areas will move more slowly and erratically. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger over the south central mountains and southeast plains Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

With seasonably rich monsoon moisture in place, the main fire weather concerns over the next seven days will be strong and erratic thunderstorm outflow, as well as lightning. Wetting rainfall will be most likely along and west of the central mountain chain each day, except for today when much of the plains will also have a shot at some wetting precip again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 89 62 92 64 / 30 20 5 5 Dulce........................... 86 48 89 50 / 70 20 20 5 Cuba............................ 82 55 84 56 / 60 40 40 20 Gallup.......................... 83 53 83 53 / 60 60 60 30 El Morro........................ 79 54 80 54 / 70 60 80 30 Grants.......................... 83 56 84 56 / 60 50 60 20 Quemado......................... 80 55 81 55 / 80 60 90 50 Magdalena....................... 83 61 83 61 / 70 50 60 40 Datil........................... 79 57 79 57 / 70 40 80 40 Reserve......................... 86 53 87 54 / 60 30 90 40 Glenwood........................ 89 55 90 56 / 50 30 90 50 Chama........................... 79 48 83 50 / 70 20 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 83 62 84 63 / 50 20 20 5 Pecos........................... 83 54 84 55 / 60 20 50 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 54 83 56 / 70 10 30 0 Red River....................... 73 47 75 48 / 50 10 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 78 42 79 43 / 50 30 30 0 Taos............................ 84 51 86 53 / 50 20 20 0 Mora............................ 81 52 81 53 / 50 30 40 5 Espanola........................ 90 60 91 62 / 50 20 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 83 60 84 61 / 70 20 60 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 87 59 / 60 20 40 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 66 90 67 / 60 40 40 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 63 90 64 / 50 40 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 62 93 63 / 40 40 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 66 92 66 / 40 40 20 10 Belen........................... 92 62 92 62 / 30 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 93 64 93 66 / 40 40 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 92 60 91 61 / 40 30 30 10 Corrales........................ 93 65 93 66 / 40 40 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 92 62 92 63 / 40 30 30 10 Placitas........................ 88 65 89 66 / 50 40 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 92 65 92 66 / 40 40 20 10 Socorro......................... 94 67 94 67 / 50 50 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 84 60 / 60 40 50 10 Tijeras......................... 85 59 86 60 / 60 40 50 10 Edgewood........................ 86 55 86 56 / 50 40 50 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 52 88 52 / 50 40 50 20 Clines Corners.................. 82 55 82 55 / 50 30 30 10 Mountainair..................... 86 56 86 56 / 60 40 60 20 Gran Quivira.................... 84 57 84 57 / 60 40 60 30 Carrizozo....................... 86 63 85 62 / 40 40 80 40 Ruidoso......................... 79 57 79 57 / 80 40 80 40 Capulin......................... 83 54 84 55 / 20 20 10 0 Raton........................... 88 54 88 55 / 20 20 5 0 Springer........................ 89 56 88 56 / 20 20 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 55 84 56 / 30 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 91 62 91 64 / 10 10 0 0 Roy............................. 86 59 86 60 / 20 20 5 5 Conchas......................... 94 63 93 64 / 5 40 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 89 61 88 62 / 5 30 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 94 64 93 65 / 10 20 10 5 Clovis.......................... 91 63 91 64 / 30 30 30 20 Portales........................ 92 63 91 64 / 30 30 40 20 Fort Sumner..................... 92 63 91 64 / 30 30 20 20 Roswell......................... 93 67 93 67 / 30 30 20 30 Picacho......................... 88 62 87 61 / 70 30 60 40 Elk............................. 85 58 84 57 / 70 50 80 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for NMZ226.