textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A risk of rapid fire spread will expand across most areas this weekend, especially on Sunday.

- Damaging wind gusts will impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico late Saturday night through Sunday.

- Most areas will experience a hard freeze Sunday night, including within the Rio Grande Valley.

- A strong area of high pressure will move over the region going into the middle of next week resulting in record warmth for March.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The 12Z guidance package lowered forecast confidence on the coverage of high wind speeds in some areas for Sunday with decreasing gust speed trends. A High Wind Warning was issued in the area of higher confidence from the central mt chain to the nearby highlands late tonight and Sunday with the Pacific cold frontal passage. Northeast and east-central NM was also upgraded to a warning for the backdoor portion of the cold front. The latest RRFS and HREF prob wind gusts >55 mph were quite low for areas farther south and west so the High Wind Watch will remain in effect. The 00Z guidance package will offer a final opportunity to address trends and potential coverage of Wind Advisories vs High Wind Warnings. Nonetheless, a widespread wind event will unfold over the region Sunday with gusts of 50 to 70 mph, areas of blowing dust, falling temps, very low humidity, and dangerous fire weather.

Folks with early season yard and garden projects should prepare for a hard freeze Sunday night. Record warmth so far this spring has allowed many fruit trees, cool season vegetables, and yard projects to get ahead of the calendar. Eastern NM will take the brunt of the colder air with most areas falling into the teens Monday morning. Max temps will remain cool Monday but with much lighter winds, especially eastern NM. It will remain breezy over northwest NM. Another subfreezing night is expected Monday night but not as cold as Sunday night and with less coverage of min temps below 28F.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Tuesday thru late week will feature a March record H5 high center drifting east across the southwest CONUS. The projected H5 values around 591dm for KABQ by late next week would exceed the previous record of 589dm for March. This impressive high along with single digit humidity each day and weak surface lee troughing will lead to widespread record high temps. The latest NBM max temps remain above MOS guidance so the current forecasts may trend a couple degrees cooler than shown from Wednesday thru Saturday. Either way, even the cooler end of guidance temps have a high chance to break all-time March record highs and even rival some all-time April record highs. Essentially we are seeing temps more typical of late May to early June occurring in late March.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

West and southwest winds will continue to increase through the rest of this evening as a storm system dives southeast over the central Rockies. Strong winds aloft will result in turbulence and LLWS areawide. Ridge top winds of 60 to 70 kts early tomorrow morning will result in mountain wave activity along and just east of the central mountain chain before mixing east to much of the lower terrain of central NM after sunrise Sunday. Winds across eastern NM turn north after sunrise as a strong backdoor cold front surges south. Surface wind gusts peak at around 35 to 55 kts midday 18Z before slowly tapering off during the mid to late afternoon as mid and upper level winds weaken.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Critical fire weather is ongoing over parts of the area today with the main focus over northeast NM. Southwest to west winds will strengthen in the high terrain tonight then become widespread thru Sunday morning as a powerful cold front surges into NM. Min humidity will fall into the single digits and low teens on Sunday afternoon, despite cooler temps. Northwest to north wind gusts of 50 and 65 mph are likely for most of the area, which will elevate the risk of rapid fire spread in receptive fuels, especially along and east of the central mt chain. Much colder temps will arrive Sunday night but with only fair humidity recoveries. Northwest breezes and very low humidity will continue Monday but with temps near to below normal for mid March.

Tuesday thru Saturday will feature a potent upper level high moving east across the region with widespread record high temps, very low humidity, and lighter winds. Mixing will decrease beneath the high with poor to fair vent rates each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 38 54 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 32 55 16 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 36 51 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 34 59 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 58 22 62 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 62 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 65 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 37 70 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 41 77 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 49 15 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 40 55 17 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 46 19 53 / 0 5 0 0 Red River....................... 26 38 12 46 / 0 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 27 43 5 49 / 0 5 0 0 Taos............................ 33 52 15 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 38 52 16 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 43 60 21 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 41 56 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 59 20 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 63 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 66 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 47 69 26 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 47 63 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 45 67 25 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 64 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 67 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 58 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 62 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 74 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 43 57 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 58 19 61 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 60 14 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 55 17 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 61 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 62 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 48 69 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 63 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 26 41 10 47 / 0 10 0 0 Raton........................... 32 47 10 51 / 0 10 0 0 Springer........................ 39 52 10 53 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 56 15 54 / 0 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 41 13 49 / 0 10 0 0 Roy............................. 42 51 15 48 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 61 16 57 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 64 18 55 / 0 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 47 56 16 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 50 61 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 51 65 17 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 69 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 52 78 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 73 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 72 21 61 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-104>106- 109-120>126.

Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ104-123-125.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ227-228- 230>232-234>236.

High Wind Watch from 3 AM MDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon for NMZ206>208-211>213-218-219-221-222-224-238-240.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ214-215- 223-226-229-233-237-239.