textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1125 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture continues to bring widespread heavy rains which will threaten flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding through tonight.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances will increase again and bring more soaking rain Sunday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 829 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Quick update to adjust PoPs based on current radar and model trends. It continues to look like another surge of moisture/rainfall will impact areas from south central NM to east central NM, including the Roswell, Ruidoso and Clovis areas overnight. Additional rainfall will exacerbate any ongoing flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

We are continuing to watch a disturbance lift northward from Mexico this afternoon, as it supports another round of showers and thunderstorms primarily across southern and eastern New Mexico. The greatest area of concern remains across the southeast, where above normal moisture and sufficient instability favors convection capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. When combined with 30-40 knots of shear, training and backbuilding cells are expected to expand in coverage over the next several hours. With this in mind, WPC has upgraded portions of Lincoln and Chaves Counties to a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall. High-res guidance indicates the potential for rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, and localized totals up to 2-4 inches. Given the wet antecedent conditions from rainfall over the last 48 hours, even modest additional rainfall could result in flash flooding. In fact, the HREF and RRFS show a 30-50% chance of 100 year QPF ARI excedance through 6 PM across the aforementioned southeastern areas. Precipitation coverage elsewhere will be more scattered in nature, mainly across the central mountain chain and into northern portions of the state through the afternoon and evening until a secondary wave of showers and storms looks to move in after midnight tonight. The existing Flood Watch will continue across southeastern New Mexico up into Quay County through 6 AM tomorrow morning.

An incoming mid-level low rotating across the Four Corners region will result in another increase in showers and thunderstorms across western and northern New Mexico tomorrow before a decrease in activity is expected Friday night into Saturday. More on this below!

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Drier air will spread eastward across the CWA Saturday in tandem with 591 dam ridge, keeping conditions quiet and warmer than we have experienced over the last several days. This quiet period will be brief, as a strong trough begins to dig in from the Pacific coast Sunday and Monday. South-southwesterly flow ahead of this trough will begin to draw moisture back into the region, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing once again late Sunday and moreso on Monday.

By this point, confidence in forecast trends begins to lower due to spread in model solutions, particularly in regards to the evolution of the trough and moisture plume influence from Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific. A slower progression of the trough would favor a wetter scenario as the ECMWF deterministic and ensemble models are showcasing, whereas a faster progression like what the GFS and GFS Ens show would result in a quicker return to drier conditions. For now, expect precipitation chances to peak sometime Monday into Tuesday before the trough traverses eastward and a drier pattern takes hold by mid to late week. Details will be refined in the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Thunderstorm activity will continue across south-central and southeastern NM through most of tonight with lingering IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog likely filling in its way near the dawn hours. Ongoing thunder risk at KROW is likely to continue through to 12Z or 13Z. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will impact terminals through central, northern, and northwestern NM as well but with clear breaks in between. Have included a TEMPO at KABQ- KAEG-KSAF for this with gusty winds likely accompanying between 09Z and 12Z. Clearing conditions are likely to reach these areas, while low ceilings will likely be stubborn to clear out of southeastern NM Friday morning and mid-day. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor development over the central and western high terrain, moving west to east over central and eastern areas Friday afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Fire weather concerns are not expected through the next week. Plentiful moisture with repeated rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity continues across much of the state the remainder of today and through Friday afternoon. Drier air briefly shuffles in on Saturday before the next round of showers and storms moves across the state Sunday and Monday, with precipitation potentially lingering into the middle parts of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 75 51 79 / 20 40 5 0 Dulce........................... 45 68 40 75 / 80 60 30 0 Cuba............................ 48 67 46 72 / 60 60 20 0 Gallup.......................... 47 71 45 78 / 50 30 10 0 El Morro........................ 46 69 43 72 / 60 40 10 0 Grants.......................... 49 71 45 78 / 60 50 10 0 Quemado......................... 48 71 47 74 / 40 30 20 0 Magdalena....................... 53 70 52 74 / 50 50 30 0 Datil........................... 49 68 47 72 / 50 40 10 0 Reserve......................... 50 75 49 79 / 60 30 5 0 Glenwood........................ 55 80 55 83 / 60 20 5 0 Chama........................... 44 62 40 69 / 90 80 30 0 Los Alamos...................... 52 67 50 73 / 60 60 30 5 Pecos........................... 50 68 47 73 / 70 50 30 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 66 44 71 / 60 60 40 0 Red River....................... 41 58 38 62 / 60 50 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 37 63 35 68 / 70 50 20 0 Taos............................ 47 69 43 75 / 60 50 30 0 Mora............................ 47 69 44 73 / 50 50 20 0 Espanola........................ 52 74 50 77 / 50 50 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 52 69 50 74 / 60 60 30 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 72 50 76 / 50 60 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 74 56 78 / 50 50 30 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 76 56 80 / 50 40 30 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 76 56 81 / 50 40 30 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 73 57 80 / 50 50 20 0 Belen........................... 57 75 55 78 / 70 50 30 0 Bernalillo...................... 56 75 55 79 / 50 50 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 75 54 79 / 50 40 30 0 Corrales........................ 57 75 56 80 / 50 50 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 75 55 78 / 70 40 30 0 Placitas........................ 55 73 55 78 / 50 50 30 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 73 56 77 / 50 50 20 0 Socorro......................... 58 78 57 81 / 80 50 30 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 68 51 71 / 50 50 40 0 Tijeras......................... 53 69 52 72 / 50 50 40 0 Edgewood........................ 51 71 50 74 / 50 50 30 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 73 47 77 / 40 50 30 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 68 51 74 / 50 50 30 0 Mountainair..................... 52 69 51 74 / 70 50 30 0 Gran Quivira.................... 52 69 51 73 / 90 50 30 0 Carrizozo....................... 56 72 56 76 / 90 50 30 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 69 51 74 / 90 60 20 0 Capulin......................... 51 68 48 74 / 70 30 20 0 Raton........................... 50 71 46 80 / 80 40 10 0 Springer........................ 52 74 47 79 / 60 50 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 69 47 76 / 70 50 20 0 Clayton......................... 58 73 56 82 / 60 70 10 0 Roy............................. 55 70 51 78 / 70 60 20 0 Conchas......................... 60 78 58 85 / 70 80 30 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 74 58 82 / 80 60 30 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 77 59 86 / 80 80 20 0 Clovis.......................... 60 75 60 84 / 80 80 40 0 Portales........................ 62 77 61 85 / 80 80 40 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 76 59 85 / 90 60 30 0 Roswell......................... 62 79 61 88 / 80 50 30 5 Picacho......................... 57 76 56 82 / 90 70 30 5 Elk............................. 56 76 52 81 / 100 50 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ226-234>240.