textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 - Dry storms in far eastern New Mexico today may ignite new fires. Localized and erratic wind gusts near these storms may rapidly spread new fire starts. Critical fire weather conditions will also be present in east central and southeast New Mexico today. - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread will occur Saturday through Monday with the most widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions expected on Sunday and Monday.

- Moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the Eastern Plains due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

A shortwave trough over southern AZ will move eastward into New Mexico this afternoon, with the sub-tropical jet draped over southern NM. Gusty southwest winds will focus over the southeastern corner of the state early this afternoon where winds have trended stronger with the most recent forecast update. Given the timing of the trough passage, winds will be strongest in the early afternoon prior to peak afternoon mixing.

Rain chances have trended up for Friday afternoon as well. Two areas of dry storms and gusty showers will develop today, the first of which will be along the leading edge of the aformentioned shortwave trough. The second will be in the northeast corner of the state along the leading edge of a backdoor front. Similar to Thursday, cloud bases will be very high so evaporative cooling will drive strong microburst wind gusts down to the surface. Instability will be maximized in Chaves county where there is a low chance of severe wind gusts. With dry soils, these strong downbursts wind gusts could create areas of blowing dust at times. Furthermore, very low sfc humidities will once again support the potential for new fire starts from lightning. Gusty and erratic winds could rapidly grow these new fire starts.

Dry southwest flow takes over on Saturday as a trough deepens over The Great Basin. South to southwest breezes will prevail around the region and temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals once again. There is a low chance of a few sprinkles in and around the northern mtns during the afternoon, but the much lower PWATs (around 0.3") should not support any wetting rain.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

The trough over the western US will continue digging into The Great Basin on Sunday, with strengthening southwest flow over New Mexico. This will translate to stronger winds down to the sfc and the deeper mixing will drop humidities down to dangerously low levels. Currently, probabilities of wind gusts > 50 mph remain quite low, with probs over 50% confined to the high terrain of western and northern NM. The base of the trough will dive into New Mexico Sunday night into Monday, which will keep the boundary layer from decoupling, keeping breezes going in most areas through the night. Monday is now looking like it could be windier than Sunday, with probabilities of wind gusts > 50 mph 40% or higher over much of northern NM, with the highest chances in the northeast.

The base of the trough swinging through the southern Rockies on Monday will send a backdoor front into eastern NM. The moisture in the wake of this front could stick around in the east for a few days, supporting low precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday along and east of the central mtn chain. Given the higher instability and wind shear, this environment could support isolated strong to severe storms each afternoon. However, there is still high disagreement with regard to the overall synoptic pattern over the western CONUS mid to late week, which will affect how much moisture is advected in from the east.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated showers and storms will develop in the Eastern Plains around 18Z, moving off to the east into TX by 01Z in the evening. Strong and erratic outflow winds will accompany these showers and storms and may create brief visibility reductions from blowing dust.

A light west breeze will prevail in western and central areas today, with a stronger breeze in eastern NM where winds may gust as high as 30 kts (higher gusts near showers).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

There were several fire starts from lightning in eastern NM yesterday and it will be a threat once again today in the same areas. Dry storms will focus along the leading edge of a shortwave trough over southeast NM and across the northeast along the leading edge of a backdoor front. Very deep mixing (up to 19,000 feet) means that cloud bases will be very high and any convection that develops (even showers) will support strong and erratic wind gusts down to the surface. In addition, forecast wind speeds have increased across southeast NM, prompting the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the East Central Plains. If there are lightning fire starts, southwest winds enhanced by nearby showers and storms could rapidly spread these fires.

South to southwest breezes along with very low minimum humidity (4 to 10%) prevail on Saturday, creating widespread near critical to critical fire weather conditions. The Fire Weather Watch remains in tact, but was not yet upgraded since winds are marginal for rapid fire spread. Winds will trend stronger on Sunday in response to a deepening trough over The Great Basin. Max RFTI values on Sunday are generally in the 4 to 7 range, with pockets of 8 in eastern NM where winds will be strongest. Long-duration critical fire weather conditions are likely given the very low humidity which should support 10 to 15 hours of single digit humidity in eastern NM. Monday will once again be dry and windy, with the strongest winds focusing over northeastern NM where there is already a 50%+ chance of wind gusts over 50 mph.

Winds are forecast to trend weaker beyond Monday, with increasing humidity in eastern areas behind a series of backdoor frontal passages. As a result, there are low chances of storms along and east of the central mtn chain Wednesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 85 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 38 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 80 46 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 43 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 82 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 80 52 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 78 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 41 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 87 45 87 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 55 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 80 46 82 48 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 46 78 46 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 68 40 69 41 / 5 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 74 38 75 40 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 82 41 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 79 46 81 48 / 10 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 86 50 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 89 52 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 89 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 89 52 90 50 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 89 55 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 89 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 84 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 88 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 91 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 83 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 79 50 82 52 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 82 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 81 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 84 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 77 56 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 78 44 82 47 / 20 5 5 0 Raton........................... 84 44 86 46 / 20 5 0 0 Springer........................ 86 45 88 48 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 82 48 84 53 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 87 53 91 57 / 20 10 5 0 Roy............................. 85 49 88 52 / 20 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 93 52 96 59 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 88 53 92 57 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 96 56 99 61 / 20 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 58 98 58 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 95 58 98 58 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 93 54 96 55 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 95 58 98 57 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 88 58 91 56 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 86 56 89 55 / 10 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ104-106-123-125-126.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ126.