textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Widespread rain arrives late Thursday through early Saturday with several inches of high mountain snow accumulating in northern New Mexico. Winter travel conditions will impact the high northern mountains, especially Thursday night and Friday.

- Gusty east winds will develop below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1258 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The upper level features of interest are a closed low west of the upper Baja peninsula and a broad trough to our northwest with the axis bisecting WY and the base moving into UT. The former feature is being driven by the subtropical jet with lots of mid to high level moisture already streaming into NM while the latter has been steered by the polar jet. At the surface, last night's frontal boundary is meandering over eastern NM with much higher dewpoints (30's to low 40's deg F) to the east of the boundary. Another reinforcing cold front is also in eastern CO, and this will sag into northeastern NM with the two frontal airmasses blending and the boundaries becoming more ambiguous through the day. The approaching Baja low will move over the upper Gulf of CA, and this will cause the north-south surface moisture boundary to slowly creep toward the central mountain chain through the late afternoon and early evening. A few showers will develop in northeastern NM through the afternoon as moist upslope hits the Raton ridge and eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristos, but the more widespread outbreak of stratiform rain will transpire tonight as the low crosses the bootheel of NM, spreading more diffluence aloft into south central and east central portions of the state. Elevations above 9,000 ft, and particularly above 10,000 ft, in the Sangre de Cristos will start to stack up some heavy, wet late season snow accumulations.

The remnants of the Baja low will move into central TX through the day Friday with residual moist upslope flow keeping lighter and less coverage of stratiform rain over the eastern half of NM. There will tend to be a focus for precipitation on the east slopes of the central mountain chain Friday where upslope will have the most influence. Meanwhile, the northern stream trough will close into a low near the Four Corners Friday afternoon, and while the eastern half of NM remains rather stable, some instability in western zones will help spark a few convective showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will be much more spotty in western zones due to the convective, showery nature of the precipitation, and overall QPF has trended down as more high resolution CAMs are now covering the window of opportunity through Friday. Still, much of the eastern half of NM looks to have high 70-90% chances for at least 0.5 inch of liquid equivalent with several inches of wet, snow in the Sangre de Cristos above 9,000 ft. Precipitation would largely wane after midnight Friday night. Quite a few places will be facing freezing temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning, but most of these areas are still a few days to a couple of weeks away from their median last freeze dates with several sites having just froze within the last 10 to 14 days. All that to say that Freeze Watches/Warnings are not anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1258 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Into Saturday, it will be tricky to pinpoint the location of any showers or thunderstorms. A ridge aloft will start to swell over the southern and central Rockies, but the remnants of the Four Corners low will get lost in it, losing definition and organization over NM. Residual moisture and meager instability will be best juxtaposed over the southwestern to south central high terrain, but a few light showers and storms may breach northward.

The ridge over the southern Rockies will start to flatten into Sunday with the next upstream low moving toward the CA coast. Similar moisture and instability will linger for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a focus over the western and central high terrain. Southwesterly breezes look to begin increasing with the GFS/MEX being a bit more bullish with this trend into Sunday afternoon.

Much uncertainty still exists with the forecast Monday through Wednesday of next week due to differences in track, orientation, and timing with the next upper low. The GFS draws in an initial, preceding perturbation over CO with any associated precipitation bypassing NM to the north. However, into Tuesday and Wednesday the deterministic GFS and ECMWF merge closer to similar solutions, dragging the remnants of the primary CA low as a trough over NM, offering increased chances for precipitation, mainly over northern NM zones. Winds would also be favored to increase from the west southwest on Tuesday, something that the latest 00Z ECMWF looks to now be latching onto similar to the previous runs of the GFS. Current model trends suggest that winds would start to gain more of a northerly component into Wednesday as the trough overtakes NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Lots of mid to high clouds are currently over northern and central New Mexico. In eastern areas of the state, clouds are lowering as a moist, cold front is moving back in, and a few airports are already reporting MVFR ceilings (below 3,000 ft). Moisture and lower clouds will continue moving in late today into tonight, slowly setting the stage for widespread rain in the eastern half of New Mexico overnight. The front will also surge westward through the gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain this evening, producing very gusty winds at KABQ where gusts of 35 and perhaps as high as 45 kt will develop. An Airport Weather Warning will be considered for KABQ to account for these gust winds this evening and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Last night's front has established a north-south oriented moisture boundary in eastern NM with higher dewpoints on the east and abysmally dry readings to the west. This boundary will creep toward the central mountain chain today, getting assistance from a secondary moist front coming out of eastern CO. This will shut down the critical fire weather threat in eastern zones while the western half of NM continues to be plagued by low RH (8-15%). Fortunately, winds will stay on the lighter side today (generally 10 to 15 mph) with only isolated exceptions. The cool, moist boundary will then breach the central mountain chain and advance into western NM tonight, effectively boosting humidity while widespread, soaking rain breaks out over the eastern half of NM and wet snow stacks up in the northern mountains. There will be some wind concerns tonight near ABQ, as an easterly gap/canyon wind event unfolds (easterly gusts to 45 to 50 mph), but the rising humidity should offset any fire weather concerns. Precipitation will start to decrease in coverage some in eastern zones Friday, but western zones will get a turn for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms that will offer a few pockets and footprints of wetting rain.

Isolated to scattered showers and light thunderstorms will continue over the high terrain of western and central NM into Saturday and Sunday before dwindling to just the northern zones on Monday. Lighter winds and considerably higher dewpoints will linger through Sunday, mitigating the critical fire weather threat.

Breezes could start to increase again from the southwest on Monday due to an upstream Pacific low pressure system, but widespread fire weather concerns are not foreseen at this time. Winds will have the potential to increase more into Tuesday. For now, the minimum humidity on Monday and Tuesday appears to be hovering just slightly above critical thresholds (15-20%), and there are still some uncertainties with the exact track and evolution of the Pacific low, so Monday and Tuesday will need to be watched shift-by-shift. Low precipitation chances would continue Monday through Wednesday with northern zones being the most likely recipients of light amounts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 71 39 68 40 / 0 0 20 20 Dulce........................... 66 28 61 29 / 10 20 80 50 Cuba............................ 67 35 58 31 / 5 30 70 50 Gallup.......................... 70 31 65 30 / 0 0 20 30 El Morro........................ 66 37 60 33 / 0 10 60 40 Grants.......................... 71 35 61 32 / 0 20 60 40 Quemado......................... 68 37 65 36 / 0 10 30 30 Magdalena....................... 71 43 57 37 / 5 40 40 40 Datil........................... 67 40 58 36 / 0 20 50 50 Reserve......................... 74 36 71 36 / 0 20 30 30 Glenwood........................ 78 40 78 38 / 5 30 30 20 Chama........................... 58 29 53 27 / 30 40 90 60 Los Alamos...................... 64 41 51 36 / 20 60 90 50 Pecos........................... 62 34 49 30 / 60 90 80 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 59 34 50 28 / 60 80 90 60 Red River....................... 49 27 39 23 / 80 90 90 70 Angel Fire...................... 54 23 44 19 / 80 90 90 70 Taos............................ 64 31 54 28 / 50 70 80 60 Mora............................ 56 29 44 27 / 80 90 90 70 Espanola........................ 71 42 59 37 / 30 70 80 50 Santa Fe........................ 65 41 52 34 / 50 80 80 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 41 55 33 / 40 70 70 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 46 58 41 / 10 70 50 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 45 60 40 / 5 60 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 44 63 39 / 5 50 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 76 47 61 40 / 5 50 30 30 Belen........................... 78 44 62 38 / 5 60 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 75 45 62 40 / 5 60 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 77 42 62 37 / 5 50 30 30 Corrales........................ 76 45 62 39 / 5 50 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 77 44 62 38 / 5 50 30 30 Placitas........................ 71 45 56 39 / 10 60 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 74 46 62 41 / 5 50 30 30 Socorro......................... 80 49 65 41 / 5 50 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 39 52 35 / 20 70 60 40 Tijeras......................... 69 40 52 37 / 20 60 60 40 Edgewood........................ 67 37 52 33 / 20 70 70 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 34 52 28 / 30 80 70 30 Clines Corners.................. 60 34 44 32 / 30 90 80 30 Mountainair..................... 70 36 50 34 / 20 80 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 69 37 49 33 / 20 80 70 20 Carrizozo....................... 72 45 54 38 / 20 90 70 20 Ruidoso......................... 64 39 47 33 / 20 90 90 30 Capulin......................... 49 28 42 27 / 90 90 100 30 Raton........................... 53 30 47 27 / 90 90 100 30 Springer........................ 57 33 47 29 / 90 90 90 40 Las Vegas....................... 56 32 44 30 / 70 90 100 50 Clayton......................... 53 35 49 34 / 60 90 90 20 Roy............................. 54 33 45 32 / 80 90 100 30 Conchas......................... 62 37 51 35 / 60 100 100 20 Santa Rosa...................... 62 37 46 35 / 40 100 90 20 Tucumcari....................... 62 39 52 36 / 40 100 100 20 Clovis.......................... 62 41 52 37 / 20 100 100 20 Portales........................ 65 41 52 37 / 20 100 100 20 Fort Sumner..................... 66 39 52 37 / 20 100 100 20 Roswell......................... 72 47 55 43 / 20 90 100 20 Picacho......................... 70 41 51 37 / 20 90 90 20 Elk............................. 71 39 53 33 / 20 90 90 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ213>215-227.