textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 154 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Scattered storms Thursday become more widespread Friday through the weekend. Isolated flash flooding will be a concern each afternoon, including over the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across portions of New Mexico through late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 154 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

New Mexico remains sandwiched between a ridge over the southern US and a trough over the west coast. Rich subtropical moisture is in place over the desert southwest and continues to advect in from the south and west. PWATs range from slightly above normal across the southeast to the 85th percentile in far western NM. Despite the moisture in place, widespread mid-level cloud coverage will restrict daytime heating and keep the atmosphere relatively stable this afternoon. This will significantly restrict the coverage of showers and storms, with scattered showers and storms generally moving off to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Recent hi-res guidance suggests scattered may even be a stretch, with the HRRR and REFS showing isolated coverage. The lack of coverage combined with the faster storm motions will limit the flash flood risk as evidenced by 90th percentile rainfall amounts below 1" areawide. That being said, the moist atmosphere will favor efficient rainfall rates so an instance or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

Friday will be similar to Thursday with scattered showers and storms moving off to the northeast relatively quickly. There should be some morning clearing which will help to create pockets of destabilization and heavier rainfall rates. As a result, the flash flood threat will be a tad higher for Friday, with western NM the main area of concern.

Temperatures will be cooler than they have been recently today and Friday, particularly across western NM where highs could be as much as 10 degrees below normal because of the extensive cloud coverage. It will be warmer across the east both days closer to the H5 ridge and where cloud coverage will not be as dense.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

New Mexico will remain sandwiched between a ridge off to the east and troughing to the west over the weekend. However, the monsoonal moisture plume will become notably thinner, with storm coverage focusing along the plume. Current model guidance suggests this could be along the central mountain chain, which would be advantageous for the development of storms that will have a tendency to regenerate over the high terrain. Of particular concern will be the Ruidoso area burn scars, although other locations along and near the central mountain chain will be at risk as well. The center of the H5 will attempt to re-develop over central NM Sunday, slowing down storm motions and increasing temps. On Sunday, LREF 500 mb heights are around 595 dam over central NM, but some deterministic models have it as strong as 598 dam. Storm coverage will depend on how quickly heights rise, with higher heights signifying more mid-level warming and therefore less afternoon destabilization. Moisture will drop down to near seasonal normals in most areas Sunday into Monday, except across the northern third of the state north of the building ridge. Rain chances will be highest along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and this pattern should persist into the middle of the week, with the same areas getting rain each afternoon/evening.

Forecast confidence becomes low late next week. Cluster analysis shows that the center of the H5 ridge could be located anywhere from the Great Basin to Texas and anywhere in between. The wide range of solutions suggests anywhere from isolated to numerous storms and temperatures anywhere from near normal to well-above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A few showers will continue to linger through the night in central and western NM, but will produce very little to no rainfall. Ample moisture pushing in from the west will result in widespread BKN to OVC cigs between 7k and 13k ft across western and central NM tonight into Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will move from SW to NE around 10 to 20 knots through the afternoon and evening. Given the potential for locally heavy rainfall rates, brief reductions in visibility may occur with stronger storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Extensive cloud coverage today will keep temperatures down today, with below normal temps along and west of the central mountain chain. Despite the ample sub-tropical moisture, storm coverage will be limited, with isolated to scattered storms moving from southwest to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Light southwest to west winds prevail in most areas, except stronger with winds of 10 to 25 mph in the eastern plains.

Storm coverage ticks up slightly on Friday when wetting rainfall chances will be higher. Storms focus along the central mountain chain Saturday then expand in coverage again Sunday as the center of the ridge re-develops over central New Mexico. Humidity recoveries will consistently be good to excellent through Saturday morning, becoming fair to good Sunday through Tuesday.

Scattered slow-moving storms and slightly above normal temperatures are forecast early next week, but model uncertainty increases significantly mid to late next week with a wide range of potential forecast scenarios ranging from hotter and drier to wetter and cooler.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 85 62 87 61 / 10 30 20 10 Dulce........................... 82 48 85 48 / 40 30 40 30 Cuba............................ 81 56 83 55 / 20 50 30 30 Gallup.......................... 79 53 81 52 / 30 20 40 10 El Morro........................ 75 52 78 52 / 40 30 70 20 Grants.......................... 80 55 82 54 / 40 30 70 20 Quemado......................... 75 55 78 55 / 50 40 70 10 Magdalena....................... 79 61 82 61 / 70 30 60 30 Datil........................... 74 55 78 55 / 60 30 60 20 Reserve......................... 81 53 85 54 / 60 40 60 10 Glenwood........................ 85 57 91 58 / 50 20 40 10 Chama........................... 75 48 78 48 / 50 20 60 30 Los Alamos...................... 80 60 83 60 / 50 30 50 40 Pecos........................... 82 57 85 56 / 20 10 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 55 82 55 / 50 30 50 20 Red River....................... 70 46 73 45 / 50 20 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 75 38 78 37 / 50 10 70 30 Taos............................ 82 53 85 52 / 40 20 40 20 Mora............................ 80 53 82 52 / 50 10 70 20 Espanola........................ 87 59 90 59 / 50 30 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 82 61 85 61 / 30 20 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 58 88 58 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 66 92 67 / 5 20 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 65 91 65 / 10 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 63 93 64 / 10 30 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 67 91 66 / 10 30 10 20 Belen........................... 89 63 93 63 / 10 30 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 90 65 93 65 / 10 30 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 90 61 92 61 / 10 30 10 20 Corrales........................ 91 66 93 66 / 10 30 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 89 64 92 63 / 10 30 10 20 Placitas........................ 87 64 89 64 / 5 30 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 89 66 92 66 / 10 30 10 20 Socorro......................... 90 66 94 66 / 50 30 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 58 86 58 / 5 20 10 20 Tijeras......................... 83 60 86 61 / 5 20 10 20 Edgewood........................ 85 56 88 55 / 10 20 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 55 90 54 / 10 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 82 58 86 58 / 10 10 20 20 Mountainair..................... 84 57 87 56 / 5 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 84 57 86 58 / 5 10 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 88 64 90 64 / 5 10 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 82 58 83 58 / 5 5 70 20 Capulin......................... 83 55 85 55 / 40 20 60 30 Raton........................... 87 55 88 55 / 50 20 70 30 Springer........................ 89 57 91 56 / 40 20 50 30 Las Vegas....................... 84 56 87 56 / 20 5 30 20 Clayton......................... 93 64 94 63 / 5 20 20 20 Roy............................. 88 61 90 60 / 10 20 20 30 Conchas......................... 98 68 99 66 / 0 10 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 92 65 94 64 / 5 10 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 99 69 100 68 / 0 10 10 30 Clovis.......................... 99 70 99 68 / 0 5 20 20 Portales........................ 99 71 99 69 / 0 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 97 68 98 68 / 0 10 10 20 Roswell......................... 99 71 100 70 / 0 10 20 20 Picacho......................... 93 65 93 64 / 10 5 70 30 Elk............................. 91 61 91 60 / 5 5 60 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.