textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 548 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms will favor locations along and east of the continental divide today and Monday. A few storms may become severe with a risk of dust storms from the east slopes of the western mountains to the central valley today. The risk of severe storms will shift to eastern areas Monday.

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon and evening, then a moderate risk on Monday. - Hot, dry, and gusty weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday with an increasing risk of rapid fire spread, especially across northwest New Mexico.

- Hazardous heat is forecast for parts of the eastern plains and central valley Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 126 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A moist backdoor cold front will produce a moderately strong east canyon wind in the central valley from Santa Fe southward this morning with peak gusts probably reaching near 45 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque, near 40 mph at the Santa Fe Airport, and around 35 mph in Carrizozo. The strongest winds are expected between 6 and 9 AM.

The moist backdoor front will push all the way to the AZ border by late morning, setting the stage for an active day of convection as a series of perturbations cross in northwest flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that develop along the continental divide in the early afternoon will march east southeastward to the central mountain chain during the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, and potentially onto the eastern plains during the evening and overnight hours. East of the central mountain chain widespread low clouds and cool air behind the backdoor cold front will create a stability profile more supportive of rain showers than thunderstorms today. However, the plains will gradually warm some as the day progresses, then the disturbances will stream over eastern areas tonight probably triggering scattered to numerous thunderstorms. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today from the east slopes of the western mountains to the central valley, where CAPE will generally peak around 1400-1800 J/KG with 0-6 KM bulk shear around 25-45 KT. Strongly veering wind profiles, and 0-1 KM helicity from 100-200 m^2/s^2 in spots, suggests a few supercell thunderstorms could develop with a risk of an isolated tornado. There will be a greater risk of localized dust-storms in the central valley today that could make driving dangerous by dropping visibility below a quarter mile at times in dust-prone locations, similar to what occurred on Saturday. It's worth noting that scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast west of the continental divide today, where some dry or mostly dry microbursts could produce wind gusts around 50 mph with localized 1/4 mile visibility in blowing dust.

With PWATs in the central valley around 1 inch, the risk of locally heavy rainfall will shift westward between the continental divide and central valley today, where wet microbursts could produce wind gusts around 60 mph in spots. The ground is very dry, so it should be able to handle much of the rainfall. In addition, storms will move around 20-30 mph, so the risk of localized flash flooding should be pretty low this afternoon and evening, except in arroyos which will be dangerous places to be today.

On Monday, a shortwave trough will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast mainly from the continental divide eastward, except for more numerous cells near the Colorado border. For locations east of the central mountain chain, including the Ruidoso area burn scars, Monday should present a greater risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding than today, because today's cool easterly upslope flow will abate by then destabilizing the atmosphere. That said, in our Burn Scar Dashboard we opted to continue the moderate risk of rainfall capable of producing flash flooding below the Ruidoso-area burn scars for today, because of anomalously high PWATs there and discrepancies between models on how much the atmosphere will destabilize by late this afternoon and early evening when the disturbances cross aloft.

Otherwise, behind the backdoor cold front, high temperatures will fall as much as 11 degrees over central areas today compared to Saturday, and as much as 25 degrees on the eastern plains, with only a little cooling near the AZ border. With drier air moving in from the northwest on Monday, high temperatures should rebound a few degrees over central areas, and as much as 13 degrees across the eastern plains.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Shortwave troughs exiting the northern Rockies into the upper Great Plains will steer much drier air over the forecast area from the northwest both Tuesday and Wednesday shutting down convection, except for perhaps a few light showers and storms over the southern tier of mountains. Northwest flow now looks stronger for Tuesday, where there is an increasing chance of critical fire weather conditions in the northwest mountains and westward across the northwest plateau. The flow aloft will strengthen further on Wednesday, when more widespread critical fire weather conditions are still forecast over central and western parts of the forecast area as surface wind gusts peak from 25-40 mph. The drier air will also enable high temperatures to climb near average to 9 degrees above average on Tuesday, then around 3-15 degrees above average on Wednesday. Wednesday's highs should generally vary around 100-105 degrees across the eastern plains, with low 100s in parts of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley as well.

A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to build northward over NM during the latter half of the work week, while an upper level trough tracks inland over the CA coast drawing enough subtropical moisture northward over NM for thunderstorms to redevelop starting Thursday. In addition, a somewhat moist backdoor cold front that reaches as far west as the central mountain chain Wednesday night will probably also increase thunderstorm chances along and east of the central mountain chain starting Thursday. Storms should become more widespread on Friday as the upper trough makes more progress over the Desert Southwest while further enhancing southeasterly low-level return flow. On Saturday, a significant downtick in thunderstorm coverage is expected at least in the west, and maybe also in the east depending on how rapidly the upper trough exits NM to the northeast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A moderately strong east canyon wind will continue below gaps in the central mountain chain until late morning. Meanwhile, widespread low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions will also continue through the morning east of the central mountain chain, and across parts of the east central and southeast plains through the afternoon. It should be stable enough for mainly rain showers on the eastern plains this afternoon. The main focus for showers and thunderstorms today will be from the central mountain chain westward, with drier activity west of the continental divide and wetter activity east of the continental divide. Movement will be toward the east southeast around 15-25 KT. A few severe storms are likely today across the east slopes of the western mountains and the central valley, with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds, and blowing dust (at lower elevations) that may drop the visibility below a quarter mile. High res models depict clusters and lines of showers and storms exiting the central mountain chain onto western parts of the eastern plains late in the afternoon, during the evening, and the overnight hours as disturbances cross aloft. The focus for severe storms will then shift over the south central mountains and southeast areas during early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

There will be an increase in erratic thunderstorm outflows today as storms west of the central mountain chain produce wind gusts potentially up to 60 mph. Wet microbursts are expected east of the continental divide to the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening, while storms west of the continental divide produce smaller wetting footprints with some dry or mostly dry microbursts in the mix. East of the central mountain chain, rain showers will be the main mode of convection until this evening and tonight when disturbances will trigger thunderstorms there. The favored location for erratic thunderstorm outflow on Monday afternoon and evening will be along and east of the continental divide, with some spottier and drier storms farther west. Critical fire weather conditions are becoming more of a concern for Tuesday across the North Central Mountains and Northwest Plateau. The coverage of critical fire weather conditions still looks to increase Wednesday over western areas and potentially as far east as the Central Highlands. At this time, the greatest risk for Red Flag conditions Wednesday looks to be northwest of Albuquerque to the Four Corners. Rain today through Monday may decrease ERCs some over the Central Highlands by Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, gusty virga showers and mostly dry storms should return to northwest areas, west central areas, and the central valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 92 59 92 56 / 10 10 5 0 Dulce........................... 86 44 87 41 / 40 30 20 0 Cuba............................ 81 51 85 52 / 50 30 10 0 Gallup.......................... 87 50 87 49 / 30 10 20 0 El Morro........................ 84 53 84 52 / 20 10 20 0 Grants.......................... 86 52 88 52 / 50 20 20 0 Quemado......................... 85 55 85 55 / 10 10 10 0 Magdalena....................... 82 58 84 59 / 60 40 40 0 Datil........................... 82 55 83 56 / 40 10 20 0 Reserve......................... 92 52 90 50 / 20 10 20 0 Glenwood........................ 98 55 95 54 / 10 10 20 5 Chama........................... 78 44 79 43 / 60 30 30 0 Los Alamos...................... 77 56 80 58 / 70 50 40 0 Pecos........................... 74 49 83 50 / 50 50 30 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 50 77 50 / 80 60 50 5 Red River....................... 65 41 69 41 / 90 70 60 5 Angel Fire...................... 68 39 74 40 / 100 70 40 5 Taos............................ 78 48 80 47 / 80 50 30 5 Mora............................ 69 47 79 48 / 80 60 30 5 Espanola........................ 84 54 87 54 / 70 60 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 77 55 82 57 / 50 50 30 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 53 86 54 / 50 40 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 62 90 64 / 60 40 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 59 91 61 / 60 40 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 59 93 60 / 60 30 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 61 92 62 / 70 30 20 0 Belen........................... 90 57 93 58 / 40 40 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 88 60 92 61 / 60 40 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 89 56 92 57 / 50 30 20 0 Corrales........................ 89 60 93 61 / 70 30 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 90 57 92 59 / 40 30 20 0 Placitas........................ 83 60 88 61 / 60 40 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 88 60 92 61 / 70 30 20 0 Socorro......................... 92 63 93 64 / 50 50 30 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 55 85 57 / 60 40 20 0 Tijeras......................... 80 55 86 57 / 60 40 20 0 Edgewood........................ 78 52 87 53 / 50 50 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 49 88 50 / 50 50 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 70 50 82 52 / 50 40 20 0 Mountainair..................... 79 52 86 54 / 40 50 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 53 85 55 / 40 50 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 84 60 86 61 / 40 60 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 74 55 79 57 / 60 70 50 10 Capulin......................... 64 45 73 47 / 60 60 60 30 Raton........................... 69 47 78 48 / 70 70 50 30 Springer........................ 70 49 80 49 / 80 60 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 69 50 79 51 / 60 50 40 10 Clayton......................... 67 51 76 54 / 40 30 20 40 Roy............................. 67 50 77 52 / 30 50 20 30 Conchas......................... 72 55 84 57 / 30 30 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 70 54 82 56 / 20 30 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 72 55 83 59 / 40 30 10 40 Clovis.......................... 73 57 81 59 / 50 40 30 20 Portales........................ 75 56 82 59 / 50 50 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 75 57 84 59 / 40 40 10 20 Roswell......................... 82 62 85 63 / 50 60 20 20 Picacho......................... 77 57 83 58 / 70 70 30 20 Elk............................. 78 55 83 56 / 70 70 70 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.