textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern NM through this evening and again on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the high terrain during the afternoon hours before spreading onto adjacent lower elevation areas starting Monday and continuing through at least mid week. The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up as well with daily rounds of precipitation.

- Temperatures will rise mid to late next week resulting in moderate heat risk for lower elevation locations. Heat-illnesses will increase for those sensitive to heat, and those without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

An outflow boundary emanating from an overnight MCS across KS has raced southward across eastern NM much faster and earlier than models were indicating. Storms have already fired along the boundary and additional storms should form along the boundary across east central NM through the evening. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail owing to between 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30kt of 0-6km bulk shear. Across the South Central Mtns, dewpoints remain quite low so heavy rainfall is not expected, or would be very brief. However, storms in this area will likely produce very strong wind gusts given the dry low levels. The HRRR is suggesting there could be damaging winds from these storms. Across western NM, mid level moisture continues to increase and light echoes have been noted on AZ radars through the day. Low levels remain very dry across western NM, but virga appears very likely through the afternoon. Virga showers could also produce gusty and erratic winds across southwest and west central areas and some of these outflow boundaries may shift into the ABQ Metro this evening.

The latest CAMs suggest another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over far northeast NM late this evening and continue into the overnight hours as they shift south-southeastward. These may also have gusty and erratic winds associated with them. These outflows could push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, bringing east (southeast) winds to Albuquerque (Santa Fe) by early morning.

Meanwhile, a weak Pacific disturbance is still on tap to shift northeastward across SoCal and AZ tonight into Sunday, and across the Four Corners and northern NM Sunday afternoon. This will continue to increase mid level moisture across western NM.

Sunday will much more active across eastern NM. Low level moisture nudged up to the Central Mountain Chain will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon along the east slopes, with additional storms developing across eastern NM on any remaining boundaries from today's convection. Much like today, around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30kt of 0-6km bulk shear will allow strong to severe storms to develop. Storms will generally track towards the southeast as the upper high centers over the NM Bootheel. Storms will continue through the late evening hours before shifting into west Texas. Meanwhile, the added moisture across western NM will result in more virga and sprinkles, and perhaps a few dry thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. These, too, will have erratic and gusty winds associated with them.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The storms across eastern NM on Sunday should push another outflow boundary through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Sunday night, which with the help of the mid level moisture advection, will help set the stage for high terrain storms areawide on Monday. In typical monsoon fashion, storms should erupt over the high terrain Monday afternoon. Storm motions will take storms generally toward the south or southeast onto adjacent lower elevations. A mix of wet and dry storms can be expected across western NM, with drier storms focused across the northwest.

The upper high will shift westward over AZ on Tuesday, but moisture over NM will recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain once again. Tuesday should be similar to Monday overall. The upper high will continue to shift westward for Wednesday. Drier air will shift into northwest NM and this may taper thunderstorm coverage slightly, but the high terrain will remain favored. Drier air continues to push into NM on Thursday, decreasing storm coverage further. The upper high starts to slide back eastward on Friday then will strengthen over the weekend potentially to 600dam at H5 as it centered over the UT/CO border. Storm coverage will continue to decrease Friday through the weekend and temperatures will climb. Moderate heat risk will exist for most lower elevation locations.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered storms will favor east-central and southeast NM through the evening, although an isolated storm or two may develop across the northeast late evening into the overnight hours as well. Gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts will be a concern across the eastern plains through the night given the strong afternoon/evening convection

Moisture will push westward overnight, with light east winds making it into the RGV by the early morning hours. Isolated to scattered storms will favor areas along and east of the central mtn chain Sunday afternoon, with isolated high-based virga showers in the western high terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Very dry conditions continue today across central and western NM with several hours of single digit relative humidity values. Scattered storms will impact portions of eastern NM through tonight, while virga showers may produce gusty and erratic winds across western NM. Storm coverage increases on Sunday across eastern NM, while more virga, sprinkles and perhaps dry lightning impacts western NM. Strong to severe storms are possible both today and Sunday across eastern NM. Starting Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the high terrain areawide, then spread onto adjacent lower elevations. This will continue through the end of the week, though storm coverage will slowly decrease Wednesday through the end of the week. All storms will be capable of gusty and erratic wind gusts and brief heavy rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 54 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 46 91 50 91 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 57 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 56 84 57 86 / 0 10 0 40 Grants.......................... 56 89 58 89 / 5 0 5 50 Quemado......................... 60 85 60 87 / 5 10 5 50 Magdalena....................... 65 86 65 87 / 5 10 10 50 Datil........................... 61 83 62 84 / 10 10 10 60 Reserve......................... 57 91 57 92 / 5 10 5 60 Glenwood........................ 60 97 62 97 / 0 5 5 50 Chama........................... 45 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 64 86 64 85 / 0 10 0 40 Pecos........................... 57 88 55 88 / 0 20 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 85 55 85 / 0 10 0 20 Red River....................... 42 75 45 75 / 0 20 0 40 Angel Fire...................... 36 79 41 79 / 0 20 5 40 Taos............................ 52 87 52 88 / 0 5 5 20 Mora............................ 54 81 52 83 / 0 30 10 50 Espanola........................ 60 94 61 93 / 0 5 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 88 61 88 / 0 5 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 91 58 91 / 0 5 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 94 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 95 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 65 97 64 97 / 0 0 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 65 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 63 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 65 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 64 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 67 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 71 98 70 98 / 0 5 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 20 Tijeras......................... 62 90 61 90 / 0 10 0 20 Edgewood........................ 59 88 57 90 / 0 20 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 88 53 91 / 0 20 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 56 85 54 86 / 0 30 5 30 Mountainair..................... 60 89 57 90 / 0 20 5 40 Gran Quivira.................... 61 87 59 88 / 0 30 5 40 Carrizozo....................... 67 91 64 90 / 0 40 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 61 82 58 83 / 5 60 10 60 Capulin......................... 52 81 51 85 / 30 70 20 40 Raton........................... 54 85 51 90 / 10 50 5 30 Springer........................ 56 86 53 91 / 5 40 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 55 85 54 86 / 0 30 10 50 Clayton......................... 60 89 58 92 / 40 40 40 10 Roy............................. 58 85 56 88 / 10 30 20 30 Conchas......................... 64 94 60 96 / 10 30 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 64 90 59 93 / 5 30 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 66 94 62 96 / 30 30 40 5 Clovis.......................... 66 92 63 93 / 40 20 50 10 Portales........................ 67 94 63 95 / 30 20 50 10 Fort Sumner..................... 67 94 62 95 / 20 20 30 10 Roswell......................... 70 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 65 91 62 92 / 5 20 10 30 Elk............................. 62 87 59 88 / 10 40 10 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.