textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026 - Severe thunderstorms with large hail will continue to impact portions of central and eastern NM through the evening.

- River flooding will continue over parts of northwest New Mexico through tonight. Additional flash flooding may also develop across parts of northwest and west central New Mexico through this evening.

- Heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely across central and eastern NM this weekend with a risk of flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Active weather will persist across the region today as a large upper-level trough shifts northeast into the northern Rockies and a secondary closed low begins developing over the Southwest. Deep southwesterly flow will continue to transport very moist air into New Mexico, supporting another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage is expected to be greatest from the Continental Divide eastward, with the highest rainfall and flash flood concerns across northwest and west central portions of the CWA. Rainfall amounts between 0.10-0.50 are most likely, although locally higher amounts are possible with stronger or repeated storms. Given yesterday's heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches (isolated higher totals up to 3-4 inches!) across portions of north-central and northwestern New Mexico, including Mount Taylor and the Jemez and San Juan Mountain regions, any additional rainfall could quickly generate runoff and flash flooding. WPC has introduced a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall across these harder hit areas, which is surrounded by a broader Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending across much of the central and eastern portions of the state this afternoon and through the overnight hours. The Flood Watch issued last forecast cycle will remain in effect for the aforementioned areas through midnight tonight, with an additional watch now in effect for the Ruidoso area through 6 AM Sunday. The overall risk is greatest for Ruidoso Saturday into Sunday (more on this below) and storm motions are progged to be on the faster side at 30-40 mph the rest of today. However, with modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) and anomalous moisture in place, high rainfall rates and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. The watch begins at 6PM this evening.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible this evening as the instability mentioned above and favorable deep-layer shear are supportive of organized convection. RAP mesoanalysis also depicts straight-line hodographs indicative of large hail and splitting storms. Occasional severe outflow gusts can also be expected, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly across south-central portions of the state. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 is now in effect until 9PM tonight for much of New Mexico.

The threat for additional heavy rainfall and severe storms will continue on Saturday as the upper low advances northeast across the Southwest. Increasing moisture transport and forcing ahead of the system will allow for more widespread convection, with the greatest coverage across central and eastern New Mexico. Repeated or training storms could produce rainfall rates exceeding 1-inch/hour, leading to renewed flash flooding threats, especially across areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday and that will again see some today. Risk is also higher for urban areas, arroyos, steep terrain, and recent burn scar areas. WPC once again highlights a Slight risk of excessive rainfall extending across eastern New Mexico. Additional severe storms are possible Saturday central and southern zones, with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two among the potential hazards. Temperatures will also trend cooler on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper low will continue lifting northeastward on Sunday, maintaining (I'm going to sound like a broken record here) a threat for showers and thunderstorms across much of eastern New Mexico. By this time, drier air will begin infiltrating western portions of the CWA. Although storms will be a lot more progressive as the system shifts east (storm motions around 40-50 mph), continued high moisture content and modest instability will support instances of locally heavy rainfall, particularly across northeastern New Mexico where at least 1-3 inches are forecast. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also remain possible across southern and southeast New Mexico, with cool midlevel temperatures and elongated hodographs suggesting that large hail will once again be the primary concern. Snow may accumulate on the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains through Sunday night. Cooler temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend.

By Monday, while the low will still be lifting northeast into the central Plains, lingering southeasterly flow may sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico. However, PWATs are set to decrease to around 0.60-0.90 inches, reducing the potential for additional widespread rains and flash flooding concerns. Drier condtions look take over by Tuesday and southwest flow sets in. As cloud cover and precipitation decreases, temperatures will begin to moderate.

Shower and thunderstorm chances could increase again Wednesday and Thursday as another disturbance from the Pacific approaches the west coast. However, long-term guidance continues to differ in solutions regarding the ultimate track and timing of this system. Confidence is currently low, and the forecast will continue to be refine in future packages.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Around the time the broad line of storms exits eastern NM to the east early Saturday morning, scattered to numerous showers and storms will begin to develop over central NM again. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are then forecast across central and eastern areas from late morning through Saturday evening. Scattered to numerous activity is forecast farther west to the AZ border Saturday, then a line of clearing will advance over the southwest and west central mountains from the southwest Saturday evening. Some thunderstorms will turn severe Saturday afternoon and evening by producing large hail and damaging winds, with a risk of an isolated tornado. The greatest severe threat will be over central, south central, and southeast areas. Storm will move toward the north and northeast at speeds around 30-45 KT Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next week. High humidity and chances for rainfall will persist through weekend. A brief period of warming/drying will follow early next week but then a return to wetter conditions is forecast by mid to late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 47 65 44 61 / 30 90 60 20 Dulce........................... 38 60 39 58 / 60 100 90 70 Cuba............................ 44 59 42 58 / 50 90 70 20 Gallup.......................... 38 63 34 58 / 20 50 10 0 El Morro........................ 39 61 34 58 / 20 50 10 0 Grants.......................... 41 63 36 60 / 30 80 20 5 Quemado......................... 41 64 35 61 / 10 20 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 62 44 61 / 60 90 40 10 Datil........................... 43 59 37 59 / 20 60 10 0 Reserve......................... 42 64 36 64 / 20 40 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 69 40 69 / 20 50 0 0 Chama........................... 39 55 38 52 / 70 100 90 70 Los Alamos...................... 47 56 45 58 / 90 100 100 40 Pecos........................... 44 58 42 60 / 100 100 90 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 57 41 56 / 90 100 100 40 Red River....................... 39 48 33 48 / 80 100 90 50 Angel Fire...................... 39 52 32 54 / 90 100 90 50 Taos............................ 41 59 39 59 / 90 100 90 40 Mora............................ 42 54 39 57 / 100 100 100 60 Espanola........................ 48 64 46 65 / 100 100 90 40 Santa Fe........................ 48 59 46 60 / 90 100 90 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 62 45 62 / 90 100 90 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 65 51 65 / 90 100 80 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 66 50 66 / 80 100 80 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 68 49 68 / 70 100 70 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 66 50 66 / 80 100 80 20 Belen........................... 50 70 49 68 / 70 90 60 10 Bernalillo...................... 51 68 49 67 / 90 100 80 20 Bosque Farms.................... 49 69 47 68 / 70 90 70 10 Corrales........................ 51 68 49 67 / 80 100 80 20 Los Lunas....................... 50 69 48 68 / 70 90 70 10 Placitas........................ 51 64 49 64 / 90 100 90 20 Rio Rancho...................... 52 67 50 66 / 80 100 80 20 Socorro......................... 53 71 50 69 / 70 90 60 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 60 45 60 / 90 100 90 20 Tijeras......................... 48 62 47 61 / 90 100 90 20 Edgewood........................ 45 61 44 62 / 90 100 90 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 63 43 64 / 90 100 90 20 Clines Corners.................. 46 57 44 59 / 80 100 100 40 Mountainair..................... 46 63 45 62 / 90 90 90 20 Gran Quivira.................... 47 62 45 61 / 90 90 90 20 Carrizozo....................... 51 67 49 64 / 80 90 90 30 Ruidoso......................... 47 60 46 61 / 90 80 90 50 Capulin......................... 46 55 38 55 / 80 100 100 70 Raton........................... 46 57 40 60 / 90 100 100 60 Springer........................ 46 58 40 61 / 90 100 100 70 Las Vegas....................... 46 54 42 57 / 100 100 100 70 Clayton......................... 53 61 48 59 / 50 90 100 90 Roy............................. 49 57 46 58 / 100 100 100 70 Conchas......................... 54 66 52 65 / 90 100 100 80 Santa Rosa...................... 54 63 52 63 / 80 90 100 80 Tucumcari....................... 55 69 54 66 / 70 90 90 90 Clovis.......................... 56 69 54 65 / 60 60 90 100 Portales........................ 56 69 55 67 / 60 70 90 90 Fort Sumner..................... 56 67 54 66 / 80 80 100 90 Roswell......................... 58 70 56 68 / 70 80 100 80 Picacho......................... 52 66 51 66 / 90 80 100 70 Elk............................. 50 66 49 65 / 90 80 100 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 6 AM MDT Saturday through late Saturday night for NMZ203-204-210>219-221>224-227>229-232-233-237>240.

Flood Watch through late Saturday night for NMZ226.