textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an impressive closed Low over southwest New Mexico that is dragging deep, subtropical northward with it. Showers with a few storms have been occurring since early this morning and afternoon destabilization has increased the coverage of storms. Rainfall rates today will be very efficient for the desert southwest, with localized rates as high as 2"/hour. Furthermore, areas including Gallup and Farmington could see repeated rounds of storms with heavy rainfall rates slowly rotating around the north side of the Low. Storms will likely continue into the evening hours as the forcing from the disturbance shifts northward. While severe weather is not of huge concern with this setup, wet microbursts could create very localized damaging outflow wind gusts in the western half of the state this afternoon and evening.

The disturbance over southwest NM today will continue its trek northward into the Four Corners area Wednesday as moisture continues to surge northward. This will result in different storm motions than today, with storms generally moving from south to north. While many of the same areas across western NM still have high rain chances, the pattern change should result in different areas getting hit compared to previous days. This flow direction is favorable for the Ruidoso area burn scars as well so a Flash Flood Watch was issued for that area for Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The upper high over the TX Panhandle will move into southern NM on Thursday, while the aformentioned disturbance rotates around it into Colorado. Showers and storms will focus over the northern mountains on Thursday, with much less coverage underneath the ridge thanks to mid-level warming and drier air working its way in from the east. A few severe storms could develop with updrafts that roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where there will be ample instability. The center of the ridge will then setup over central NM on Friday and Saturday, with moisture recycling around it. Moisture levels will be near seasonal normals, but flash flooding is a concern considering the slow and erratic storm motions over the high terrain, including the Sacramento Mountains. 500 mb heights between 596-598 dam should help to limit instability somewhat, but hot afternoon temps and PWATs between 1-1.25" could counteract this.

Heat will also become a concern late week into the weekend, especially across the eastern plains where highs will reach into the low 100s each day. Overnight lows will be above average as well (low to mid-70s) so there will not be significant relief from the heat at night. High temps will be pushing 100F along the Rio Grande Valley as well, including in Albuquerque so heat risk concerns will also extend into central NM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms will favor the western half of New Mexico today between 18z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds up to 35 KT and small hail could occur with stronger storms. While brief MVFR conditions may occur with persistent storms, VFR conditions will prevail. Storms will taper off after 03z, but a few could linger as late as 09z near the AZ border.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next seven days. Scattered to widespread storms will continue to focus over the western NM today and again on Wednesday, with coverage shifting to northern NM on Thursday. The center of the ridge will then shift over central NM Friday into the weekend, resulting in scattered slow-moving showers and storms that will favor the high terrain each afternoon and the surrounding lower elevations during the late afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will trend hotter the next few days, particularly in eastern NM where highs will be in the low 100s each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 89 66 90 / 70 30 70 10 Dulce........................... 55 87 55 87 / 70 60 70 50 Cuba............................ 58 84 59 86 / 50 20 50 20 Gallup.......................... 56 83 58 87 / 50 50 50 20 El Morro........................ 56 80 57 84 / 50 70 50 20 Grants.......................... 59 84 59 88 / 40 70 40 30 Quemado......................... 57 81 58 85 / 40 60 30 30 Magdalena....................... 63 84 64 87 / 30 20 10 30 Datil........................... 57 79 59 83 / 40 70 20 20 Reserve......................... 55 85 57 90 / 50 40 20 20 Glenwood........................ 56 90 60 95 / 60 30 20 5 Chama........................... 53 81 53 81 / 50 60 60 70 Los Alamos...................... 64 84 64 86 / 40 20 30 40 Pecos........................... 57 86 59 88 / 40 30 40 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 85 57 84 / 10 20 20 50 Red River....................... 48 76 49 76 / 10 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 46 82 / 10 70 50 10 Taos............................ 57 87 58 88 / 10 30 30 20 Mora............................ 55 84 56 87 / 30 30 20 10 Espanola........................ 66 92 67 93 / 30 10 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 62 86 63 88 / 40 20 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 88 62 91 / 40 20 30 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 91 67 95 / 40 20 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 92 69 95 / 30 10 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 95 68 98 / 30 10 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 93 69 95 / 30 10 30 5 Belen........................... 65 94 67 97 / 20 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 93 68 96 / 40 20 30 5 Bosque Farms.................... 63 93 65 96 / 30 10 20 0 Corrales........................ 66 94 68 97 / 40 10 30 5 Los Lunas....................... 63 94 65 97 / 20 10 20 0 Placitas........................ 66 89 67 92 / 40 30 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 93 68 96 / 40 10 30 5 Socorro......................... 69 95 71 99 / 20 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 85 62 89 / 30 40 20 0 Tijeras......................... 61 86 63 90 / 30 40 20 0 Edgewood........................ 59 88 59 91 / 30 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 90 55 93 / 20 20 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 58 85 59 88 / 20 20 10 0 Mountainair..................... 59 88 60 91 / 20 20 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 59 86 61 90 / 20 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 87 67 92 / 20 50 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 59 81 60 86 / 20 60 20 20 Capulin......................... 58 88 59 91 / 10 5 10 30 Raton........................... 56 92 57 94 / 10 10 20 30 Springer........................ 59 93 59 96 / 10 10 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 58 87 58 90 / 20 20 20 0 Clayton......................... 66 97 67 100 / 10 0 5 5 Roy............................. 63 91 64 94 / 10 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 68 100 69 103 / 10 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 95 67 98 / 10 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 70 102 71 104 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 69 100 69 102 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 70 101 70 103 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 99 69 102 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 72 101 71 104 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 65 93 65 97 / 10 10 5 5 Elk............................. 62 89 61 93 / 10 10 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-202-205-208- 209.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch Wednesday afternoon for NMZ226.