textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

- A pair of weather disturbances will continue to bring rain and mountain snow to portions of northern and central New Mexico today with colder air arriving late today into tonight, causing precipitation to changeover to all snow. Wintry travel with snow packed roads and reduced visibility will impact many high terrain areas above 6,500 feet and also the northeastern plains of New Mexico tonight into Friday.

- Strong winds will impact east central New Mexico along and south of Interstate 40 today.

- The coldest air so far this season will arrive Friday into Friday night with low temperatures dropping into the single digits to mid teens over much of the area. These cold temperatures will impact those without adequate housing or heating.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

The first in a one-two punch of weather disturbances is currently making its way across NM shortly early this morning. This feature, formerly a closed Pacific low, was able to retain a tap of subtropical moisture, especially over the southern and eastern halves of the state while providing sufficient large scale ascent for precipitation. So far, snow levels have tended to range between 6,000 and 7,000 ft with any accumulations currently staying above while rain falls below. Several locales have already registered 0.1 to 0.3" of liquid precip with a few even eclipsing 0.4" and by dawn many mountain locations should have a few to several inches of fresh snow accumulation. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued late last evening for the Santa Fe metro area with much of the impacts expected to initially be on the eastern periphery of the zone and into the eastern foothills of the Sangre de Cristos (above 7,500 ft). Between dawn and the late morning, a lull in precip is projected for much of the forecast area, as the initial shortwave trough races northeastward. However, perturbed westerly flow will be increasing through the late morning, providing some faint orographics and light periodic showers over the western and central high terrain. Winds will be strongest over the central highlands and adjacent high plains, including Clines Corners, Santa Rosa, Ft. Sumner, Clovis, Portales, and rural eastern Lincoln county where gusts of 45 to 50 mph have warranted a Wind Advisory through the late afternoon.

By the early evening, the polar jet will be quickly ushering in the next perturbation, a deepening trough, south of the Four Corners area. This will be accompanied by a sharp thermal trough aloft, and the strengthening baroclinic zone will generate a swath of precipitation that will be quickly changing over to all snow as it overtakes western NM and advances toward the Rio Grande and central mountains. The trough will deepen into a closed low before midnight as it tracks eastward close to the I-40 corridor with precipitation expanding into the center of the low circulation. The ongoing precipitation and diabatic cooling will allow a couple to a few more inches of snow to stack up in the high terrain of western and central NM through the early morning hours Friday. Meanwhile, lower elevations (less than 6,000 ft) will see a changeover to snow, but with lower snow-to-liquid ratios (and of course less orographics) that would yield a dusting to a couple inches of snow during this time.

Just before dawn, the surface low will be moving into east central NM, drawing in a strong cold air mass from the north. Hefty isobar packing and frontogenesis across southeastern CO and northeastern NM will then pose concerns as the upper low and trowal feature will be moving toward this area through the post dawn hours. This will produce banded snow with heavier mesoscale snow rates in a field of gusty northerly winds. Snow and blowing snow impacts with periods of white-out conditions look to be significant from the Raton Pass eastward, as well as the U.S. 64/87 stretch between Raton and Clayton, so an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning looks in order there with additional Advisories farther south southwest where impacts will not be quite as severe. These impacts in northeastern NM would be most severe in the late morning to early afternoon hours, but strong winds will keep blowing snow and reduced visibility going into the late afternoon, even as snowfall rates decline. Remaining areas would see snow waning with western zones likely being done before noon Friday. A cold day will be in store Friday for all zones, and the brisk northerly component to the winds will add to the chill, posing a stark end to our anomalous warm start to the winter season.

Snow will continue to dwindle and wane into the evening Friday with skies gradually clearing overnight. Cold air advection will continue through the evening with winds settling more after midnight, and overnight lows will be quite cold, dropping 5 to 15 degrees below normal for many zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Much drier and less impactful weather will be in store for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. The noteworthy evolutions to the upper pattern on Saturday include a relaxing northwest flow aloft over NM while weak vorticity sags southward out of the Great Basin and settles over Sonora and the Gulf of CA in the form of a weak and dry cut-off low. Clear skies will prevail Saturday, but high temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below climatology for mid January with very light breezes overall. Going into Saturday night, clear skies and light winds will be in place, a recipe for very effective radiational cooling, so another cold night will be in store.

The cut-off low will retrograde more to the west over the Baja on Sunday and Monday while the polar jet remains well displaced to the northeast of NM. This will keep the light wind field over us with a gradual warming trend getting underway as heights rebound, and we should reach near normalcy by Monday afternoon.

Deterministic forecast models and ensemble means and blends indicate that the cut-off low will slowly get drawn eastward into the Mexican mainland Tuesday with latest guidance taking the feature considerably farther south than 24 hours ago, posing no consequence to NM. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure aloft will be strengthening over northern CA while a longwave trough carves out over the eastern ConUS. This will slowly reintroduce more northwesterly, and even more meridional flow to NM. While the flow appears to stay mostly dry, this would open the door to some bouts of stronger winds and backdoor cold fronts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

A break b/w last night's first round of winter weather and the next arriving winter weather later this afternoon and evening persisting overnight into Friday morning has taken hold across northern and central NM. VFR with mostly SKC dominates eastern NM with patchy MVFR/IFR holding onto portions of the western slopes of the western and central mountain chains. Showers of mostly snow will cross the AZ/NM border this afternoon with KFMN-KGUP first up near 21Z with showers of snow bringing a return to IFR conditions. This first burst of snow will advance to the Rio Grande Valley at KSAF-KABQ-KAEG by 00Z to 01Z. Snow levels are likely to start above the KABQ and KAEG terminals before lowering to valley floors near 04Z to 06Z. An Airport Weather Warning for accumulating snow surpassing a quarter inch at KABQ is likely needed tonight into early Friday morning. IFR/LIFR conditions following snow will focus over the northern mountains tonight, and then over the northeastern plains southward to the I-40 corridor Friday morning. Blowing snow is expected to producing LIFR conditions from KRTN to KCAO at minimum, potentially southward in brief patches to KLVS to KTCC and along the I-40 corridor. VFR looks to hold on to southeastern areas closer to KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

A one-two punch of wintry weather is underway and will continue into Friday when the second disturbance crosses northern and central NM. Stronger west winds will develop today with the strongest gusts of 40-50 mph forecast over the central highlands and adjacent east central plains. These winds are still not projected to cause any critical fire weather conditions due to cooler temperatures and elevated humidity. Rain and snow will offer fuel moisture with the best beneficiaries being the interior mountains of NM in the form of several inches of fresh snowfall. The far northeastern plains will also get an opportunity for a couple to a few inches of snowfall Friday, however much of the east central plains will observe less beneficial precipitation amounts in the form of lighter snow (a few flurries to a dusting) Friday. Strong, blustery north winds will also accompany the snowfall in the eastern plains Friday. Cold, but drier and much more tranquil weather will be in store Saturday. The tranquility will prevail into early next week with a slow warming trend to more normal temperature readings. Any prescribed burning will have to overcome less efficient mixing and poor smoke ventilation and dispersion early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 46 24 37 12 / 50 70 10 0 Dulce........................... 41 16 38 2 / 60 70 50 10 Cuba............................ 41 18 30 6 / 80 90 70 20 Gallup.......................... 40 12 31 -5 / 90 80 20 0 El Morro........................ 38 16 29 3 / 90 90 30 0 Grants.......................... 42 17 33 -3 / 70 80 30 0 Quemado......................... 40 17 26 0 / 70 90 40 0 Magdalena....................... 46 25 34 16 / 30 70 20 10 Datil........................... 39 20 27 9 / 50 80 20 5 Reserve......................... 43 15 34 -2 / 90 90 30 0 Glenwood........................ 48 20 44 4 / 100 100 20 0 Chama........................... 34 16 31 6 / 60 70 60 10 Los Alamos...................... 40 26 32 13 / 50 80 70 30 Pecos........................... 41 21 33 9 / 40 80 90 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 22 31 9 / 30 60 80 20 Red River....................... 30 15 22 4 / 30 70 90 20 Angel Fire...................... 35 12 25 -16 / 30 80 90 30 Taos............................ 42 20 34 2 / 30 70 80 20 Mora............................ 43 20 32 4 / 20 80 90 30 Espanola........................ 47 25 41 6 / 40 80 80 30 Santa Fe........................ 41 25 33 13 / 50 80 80 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 24 35 12 / 50 80 80 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 28 36 19 / 50 90 60 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 28 38 19 / 50 90 60 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 28 41 15 / 50 90 50 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 29 39 19 / 50 90 50 20 Belen........................... 52 28 41 9 / 50 80 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 51 28 39 18 / 50 90 60 30 Bosque Farms.................... 52 26 40 9 / 60 90 50 20 Corrales........................ 51 28 39 17 / 50 90 60 20 Los Lunas....................... 51 28 41 12 / 60 90 50 20 Placitas........................ 45 27 35 19 / 50 90 70 30 Rio Rancho...................... 51 28 39 19 / 50 90 50 20 Socorro......................... 55 31 45 15 / 30 60 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 23 31 14 / 50 90 70 40 Tijeras......................... 42 24 33 17 / 50 90 70 40 Edgewood........................ 43 23 34 12 / 40 80 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 21 35 4 / 40 80 70 30 Clines Corners.................. 41 22 31 11 / 20 70 80 30 Mountainair..................... 45 24 35 13 / 50 80 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 46 24 36 13 / 40 60 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 48 28 40 18 / 30 60 40 30 Ruidoso......................... 42 23 36 15 / 20 50 30 30 Capulin......................... 45 18 24 4 / 5 70 90 10 Raton........................... 49 21 27 3 / 10 70 90 10 Springer........................ 51 23 32 1 / 5 60 80 5 Las Vegas....................... 46 22 30 5 / 10 70 90 20 Clayton......................... 52 26 29 12 / 0 60 90 20 Roy............................. 53 25 31 6 / 5 60 90 20 Conchas......................... 60 29 40 12 / 0 60 80 20 Santa Rosa...................... 53 29 37 15 / 0 60 80 30 Tucumcari....................... 61 28 39 14 / 0 60 70 30 Clovis.......................... 59 31 44 19 / 0 30 40 30 Portales........................ 61 31 46 19 / 0 10 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 58 29 41 14 / 0 30 50 20 Roswell......................... 64 33 52 21 / 0 5 20 20 Picacho......................... 56 28 46 19 / 0 20 20 20 Elk............................. 54 23 44 13 / 0 20 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Friday for NMZ227-230.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Friday for NMZ215- 228-229-231.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for NMZ202-206-208.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for NMZ205-226.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ203-210-211- 213-214-221.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ212-218.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ223-233-239.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ240.