textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 827 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles will continue through the canyons and gaps of the central mountain chain this evening.

- Dry lightning from virga and dry thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico Sunday and Monday may cause new fire starts. Virga showers will create erratic downburst wind gusts.

- West winds trend stronger mid to late next week. There is a moderate (40-60%) chance of an increased threat of rapid fire spread in eastern New Mexico.

UPDATE

Issued at 827 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Winds are diminishing this evening as obs indicate the sfc pressure gradient is relaxing across the central mt chain. Although a few gusts near 45 mph may occur for a couple more hours below canyons on the east side of the ABQ metro, the High Wind Warning has been cancelled.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

High contrast weather pattern is underway with temperatures plummeting across eastern and central NM while winds have switched direction with strong to severe gusts in these areas. The upper level and surface features also seem to contrast with one another, a stout 588 decameter high sprawling across MX and TX while a 1040 mb surface high builds into the Great Plains. The strong northerly winds will slowly subside over the plains later this afternoon as the tightest surface pressure gradient shifts to central and western NM. This will keep strong and potentially damaging gusts going through gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain through the evening with a slow decrease in speed through the early morning Saturday. Temperatures will be considerably colder tonight, flirting with the freezing mark, but still just near average in most central to eastern zones.

Lower clouds will remain quite prevalent along and east of the central mountain chain through Saturday morning, but will burn off through the early afternoon. Surface winds will also be veering in direction through this time, and the south southwest component aided by a lee-side surface trough east of the front range will help boost temperatures through Saturday afternoon. Mid to high clouds will also start increasing from the southwest Saturday with a few virga showers potentially taking shape, namely in west central to southwestern zones per the inverted-V forecast soundings in those areas. These will have the potential to introduce some rogue wind gusts as rain quickly evaporates into the very arid sub-cloud layer. The fairly widespread cloud cover will keep overnight lows mild Saturday night into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The upper high will relocate eastward to the northern Gulf on Sunday while a weak upper trough takes shape farther west near the Baja peninsula. This scenario will keep steering modest mid to high level moisture from the subtropics into NM. Subtle steepening of the temperature lapse rates will also occur Sunday, and so any virga showers that try to develop like on Saturday will have a slightly better chance of growing in height with a couple to a few lightning strikes possible, mostly in southwestern zones. The lee-side surface trough will provide downsloping breezes over the eastern zones, and all areas should spike 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

The Baja trough becomes absorbed over the Mexican mainland into Monday with the flow aloft taking on a slightly more westerly component. This will spread more of the modest mid to high level moisture over western and central NM where additional high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop again Monday afternoon. The prospects for a tenth of an inch are very low though (<10%), and most locations would likely just see a couple to a few hundredths of an inch, if anything.

Into Tuesday, the flow aloft turns increasingly zonal with a couple of weak perturbations skimming along the northern NM-CO border. The stream of mid to high level moisture will continue moving over the state, and feeble forcing from the perturbation will yield a few more showers and anemic thunderstorms. Heights will lower some in response to the northern NM shortwave, and temperatures will cool a few to several (3 to 15) degrees. A backdoor front will also nudge into northeast NM by Tuesday afternoon with an ambiguous fate per latest deterministic forecast models, as the GFS keeps it from invading much of the state while the ECMWF draws it in much more forcibly through Tuesday night.

A more potent shortwave trough then looks to cross NM into Wednesday, offering stronger forcing and another brief opportunity for some precipitation. Temperatures would continue cooling, even slightly below normal, and this would support some high elevation snow accumulations of a couple to a few inches above 9kft in northern NM. This precip opportunity would be transient with a dry slot working into NM on Thursday while a deeper upper low moves inland over the northern Rockies. Breezy to windy conditions would accompany this Wednesday shortwave lingering into Thursday, mimicking a much more typical spring pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Strong easterly winds will continue in the RGV thru around 2am before dissipating overnight. LLWS and turbulence will also persist in this area until surface winds relax. A large area of VFR stratus will remain in place over eastern NM thru Saturday morning with mt obscurations possible along higher peaks of the central mt chain. Stratus will then burn off by early Saturday afternoon. Lighter winds will veer from the south and southwest Saturday with increasing mid and high level cloud cover thru the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Last night's and this morning's cold front has sent temperatures tumbling with gusty conditions still in progress. Winds are starting to decrease in speed across the eastern plains early this afternoon, but will remain gusty in central to western areas through the night.

Temperatures will quickly rebound this weekend, getting close to or surpassing normal on Saturday, then surging beyond by 10 to 20 degrees on Sunday. Concerns on Saturday will include windy conditions in northeastern NM, as lee-side surface troughing will develop. This will lead to a couple of hours of spotty critical conditions along and just east of the I-25 corridor in Colfax and Mora counties with humidity (15 to 20%) being the limiter for what would otherwise be more widespread concerns. Into Sunday, the lee- side surface trough will persist with winds turning a bit more westerly, and this will place the focus for a couple hours of marginal to critical conditions farther south over the central to northeast highlands of NM (Las Vegas to Clines Corners). Farther west, there will also be concerns for isolated dry thunderstorms that will start to take shape in western (and particularly southwestern) zones when faint mid level moisture increases. With very high ERC's and dry fuel conditions, new ignition threats will be a concern with these dry storms.

The dry lightning threat looks to persist into Monday and Tuesday, as a continued fetch of meager mid level moisture keeps getting steered into NM. Western to central zones would be favored for these virga showers and dry storms while northeastern to east central areas will continue to face breezy to wind and dry conditions. Wind speeds appear to be more marginal on Monday, increasing on Tuesday with the potential for more widespread critical conditions, particularly across eastern areas.

Despite breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday, cooling temperatures and light showers will help preclude the critical threat. Critical conditions could return in eastern NM on Thursday as a dry slot aloft arrives along with warmer and windy conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 42 76 41 79 / 0 5 5 5 Dulce........................... 28 71 31 75 / 0 5 5 10 Cuba............................ 30 67 37 75 / 0 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 32 76 34 77 / 0 5 5 10 El Morro........................ 32 72 37 73 / 0 10 10 10 Grants.......................... 29 73 35 77 / 0 10 10 10 Quemado......................... 35 75 39 74 / 0 10 10 10 Magdalena....................... 32 68 44 76 / 0 10 10 10 Datil........................... 31 71 41 73 / 0 10 10 10 Reserve......................... 33 74 35 80 / 0 10 10 20 Glenwood........................ 36 76 39 84 / 0 5 5 10 Chama........................... 28 65 34 68 / 0 5 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 35 67 45 73 / 0 5 5 5 Pecos........................... 28 67 39 75 / 0 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 67 39 71 / 0 5 5 0 Red River....................... 25 61 33 64 / 0 10 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 17 65 27 68 / 0 5 5 5 Taos............................ 25 69 32 75 / 0 5 5 0 Mora............................ 25 71 40 73 / 5 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 32 72 39 81 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 67 43 75 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 69 40 78 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 70 49 79 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 38 72 48 81 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 74 40 84 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 38 72 46 82 / 0 5 5 5 Belen........................... 34 73 40 83 / 0 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 36 72 44 82 / 0 5 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 31 73 38 83 / 0 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 36 72 44 83 / 0 5 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 33 72 39 83 / 0 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 36 69 48 78 / 0 5 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 37 71 47 81 / 0 5 5 5 Socorro......................... 38 72 47 84 / 0 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 66 46 74 / 0 5 5 10 Tijeras......................... 33 67 46 75 / 0 5 5 5 Edgewood........................ 30 68 42 76 / 0 5 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 71 32 79 / 0 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 28 65 40 75 / 0 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 28 67 41 77 / 0 5 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 29 65 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 34 67 44 80 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 23 66 38 75 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 26 67 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 72 35 79 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 28 74 35 82 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 27 69 41 78 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 33 69 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 30 68 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 36 73 43 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 35 71 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 36 71 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 36 67 43 88 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 37 70 40 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 68 38 88 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 67 41 86 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 34 69 43 83 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 29 68 41 81 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.