textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

- Localized strong and erratic wind gusts from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall, late Wednesday across much of western and northern New Mexico.

- Low to moderate chance (30-50%) of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday. Low chance (20-30%) on Sunday and Monday across much of the area.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

A warming and drying trend will continue through Tuesday as an upper high over AZ strengthens to near 591dam at 500mb and progresses east over NM. A few late day high-based showers are possible over the southern high terrain through Tuesday, favoring strong/erratic wind gusts over measurable rainfall. Temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to soar well above average areawide to near daily records at a number of locales. Albuquerque is forecast to hit a high of 91 degrees Tuesday and Roswell 98 degrees, both 2 degrees shy of their daily records. A weak cold front is forecast to back southwest through northeast NM and into central NM Tuesday night, bringing a wind shift but no notable change to temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

The upper level ridge will shift slowly east out of NM on Wednesday giving way to an increase in PWATs across western NM, which will bring greater coverage of daytime heating triggered convection. However, the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry and little to no wetting (>0.10") rain is anticipated. Instead, dry lightning and strong/erratic wind gusts will be the rule Wednesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the heat will continue Wednesday, with well above average temperatures. An upper level low racing east from the Great Basin across the northern Rockies will steer stronger westerly winds aloft over NM on Thursday. Daytime heating on Thursday will bring deep layer mixing of these stronger westerly winds, resulting in breezy to windy conditions by afternoon with large sustained/gust spreads. Well above average temperatures will persist Fri/Sat, with lighter winds. Winds may trend back up Sun/Mon as an upper level trough approaches slowly from the west coast. However, the forecast beyond Saturday is of low forecast confidence at this time given both model spread and lack of run-to-run consistency. Worth of note, the 12Z GFS is bringing Gulf moisture into the eastern plains Saturday night through Sunday and indicating the potential for a severe thunderstorm or two near the NM/TX border Sunday afternoon/evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Typical late afternoon gustiness is forecast, but otherwise winds will remain light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Hot and dry conditions will prevail through mid week as an upper high over AZ progresses east across the region. Winds will be light under this regime, although a crop of dry showers and storms will bring strong/erratic wind gusts on Wednesday with some dry lightning activity. Any lightning ignitions on Wednesday could lead to fire growth on Thursday as stronger westerlies are steered over the region and deep layer mixing brings breezy to locally windy conditions. Further drying is forecast Thursday as well, with many hours of single digit humidity forecast across western NM. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across much of eastern NM on Thursday afternoon and may include the northern mountains. ERCs are forecast to trend up this week, so will closely evaluate the need for a watch over the next 24hrs. Winds trend down Fri/Sat, but warm and dry conditions persist and several hours of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are likely during the afternoons. Backing and strengthening winds aloft on Sun/Mon in advance of an upper level trough will increase chances for critical fire weather conditions, especially given continued drying and rising ERCs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 47 91 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 87 42 86 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 44 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 40 88 47 84 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 43 85 48 81 / 0 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 43 88 48 84 / 0 0 0 30 Quemado......................... 46 85 50 81 / 0 0 5 20 Magdalena....................... 53 85 57 82 / 0 0 5 5 Datil........................... 48 84 52 80 / 0 5 10 10 Reserve......................... 46 90 48 88 / 0 5 5 5 Glenwood........................ 48 93 49 91 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 37 81 41 80 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 53 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 47 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 71 41 71 / 5 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 35 77 38 77 / 5 0 0 30 Taos............................ 42 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 46 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 50 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 50 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 93 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 53 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 92 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 52 92 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 55 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 57 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 56 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 58 93 62 94 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 54 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 51 88 55 86 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 89 44 88 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 51 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 53 86 54 86 / 0 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 51 86 54 85 / 0 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 56 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 10 Capulin......................... 46 82 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 44 87 46 84 / 0 0 0 10 Springer........................ 44 89 47 85 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 48 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 53 90 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 88 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 53 96 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 93 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 57 97 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 53 95 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 54 96 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 96 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 98 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 53 91 57 91 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 51 88 56 91 / 0 5 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.