textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Friday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, hail, heavy downpours, and a risk of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars.

- Some storms this week over west central and northwest areas will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday morning) Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

With a ridge of high pressure building over the southern Great Plains and an upper level trough developing on the southwest US coast, Gulf moisture will continue to surge into the area tonight and Tuesday. The moisture isn't that rich yet, so only isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast early this evening east of the south central mountains and across the far east central plains. Some cells on the western edge of the moisture will produce gusty winds with little or no rain.

By late Tuesday morning, dewpoint temperatures should mostly vary from the 30s to 40s F along the central valley, central mountain chain, and as far west as the southwest mountains, with higher readings in the 50s over the southeast and far eastern plains. Disturbances will also begin streaming northeastward over the forecast area as the trough on the west coast continues to deepen. This will enable mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms to commence before noon Tuesday in the mountains east of the continental divide, and also on the adjacent high plains east of the central mountain chain.

Tuesday afternoon and early evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast east of the continental divide to the TX border. More isolated activity is forecast along the continental divide, where some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are expected along the northwest edge of the Gulf moisture. PWATS over eastern areas on Tuesday are forecast to reach around 1.00-1.30", around 0.80-1.00" over the central valley and central mountain chain, and around 0.50-0.80" along and west of the central mountain chain. So, some locally heavy rainfall is likely Tuesday along and east of the central mountain chain. Models have been consistently depicting the heaviest precip Tuesday afternoon along the central mountain chain, and especially over the south central mountains, then over the southeast and far eastern plains Tuesday evening. NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates a a few locations in the south central mountains may accumulate over 1 inch of rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night, potentially including some of the vulnerable recent burn scars, and over 2 inches across parts of the southeast plains. With this forecast package we issued a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for Lincoln County with the main concern below recent burn scars. As disturbances continue to stream northeastward over the state, light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will probably continue late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning mostly along and east of the central mountain chain, and especially along NM's eastern border.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The upper level trough is forecast to pass very gradually eastward across the southern Rockies Wednesday through the end of the week. It may begin to spread some slightly drier air over NM from the southwest as early as Wednesday, when scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return along and east of the continental divide during the afternoon and evening with spottier and drier variety convection over far west central and northwest NM. PWATS will still be high enough for locally heavy rainfall along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and evening, when the risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars may be higher due to antecedent moisture from Tuesdays storms. There will be a downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and again Friday as the upper level trough progresses and drier air makes gradual progress into the state. Showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening look to favor the mountains east of the continental divide and eastern plains, then the central mountain chain eastward on Friday. Models vary but do generally suggest the upper level trough will form a closed upper level low pressure system that will track northeastward over the southeast NM and the TX/OK panhandles Friday night and Saturday. This will cause scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue along and east of the central mountain chain, and potentially also in the northwest mountains. In the wake of the upper trough, drier air will pervade the forecast area Sunday. After high temperatures bottom out Wednesday and Thursday from near average to around 12 degrees below average, readings will begin to rebound most places on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated to widely scattered and light rain showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and early evening from the south central mountains eastward and northeastward to the TX border. Storm motion will be toward the northeast and east at speeds around 10 KT. Some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will be in the mix with a few of the stronger cells capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts around 60 mph, as well as blowing dust in dust-prone lower elevation locations. Gulf moisture will then increase tonight enabling showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread on Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop late Tuesday morning in the mountains east of the continental divide, and also on the adjacent east slopes of the central mountain chain potentially as far east as Conchas Lake.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Poor humidity recovery is forecast again west of the central mountain chain tonight. By Tuesday afternoon, critically low minimum humidities should be relegated west of the Rio Grande Valley, where some storms will produce gusty winds with little or no precipitation reaching the surface. Gusty and dry thunderstorms are again forecast along and west of the continental divide Wednesday, when critically low minimum humidities will again be found from Farmington to Gallup and Zuni. Critically low minimum humidities will begin to increase in coverage again over western areas starting Thursday as drier air begins making more progress over the state. Otherwise, the main fire weather concerns will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, especially during the afternoon and evening over southern and eastern areas where a few of the stronger wet microbursts will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near and potentially over 50 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 52 90 55 89 / 0 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 44 86 43 83 / 0 10 10 30 Cuba............................ 54 83 49 79 / 0 20 20 30 Gallup.......................... 47 85 48 84 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 51 83 50 80 / 0 20 20 30 Grants.......................... 53 86 50 82 / 0 20 20 50 Quemado......................... 52 83 50 81 / 0 20 10 20 Magdalena....................... 60 82 53 78 / 0 60 40 60 Datil........................... 54 80 51 77 / 0 50 20 60 Reserve......................... 49 90 48 87 / 0 20 10 50 Glenwood........................ 52 95 51 92 / 0 10 5 60 Chama........................... 45 78 42 75 / 0 20 20 60 Los Alamos...................... 61 79 55 75 / 0 40 20 60 Pecos........................... 53 79 48 75 / 10 70 50 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 78 49 74 / 0 50 20 60 Red River....................... 43 69 40 66 / 0 70 30 80 Angel Fire...................... 47 72 41 69 / 5 70 30 80 Taos............................ 51 80 48 77 / 0 50 30 60 Mora............................ 52 75 48 71 / 5 70 50 80 Espanola........................ 57 87 54 83 / 0 50 20 50 Santa Fe........................ 60 80 54 76 / 10 60 20 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 83 52 79 / 10 50 20 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 87 60 83 / 0 50 20 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 88 57 85 / 0 50 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 91 56 87 / 0 50 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 89 58 85 / 0 40 20 30 Belen........................... 60 90 54 87 / 0 50 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 63 89 58 85 / 0 40 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 60 90 53 86 / 0 50 20 20 Corrales........................ 64 90 58 86 / 0 40 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 61 90 55 86 / 0 50 20 20 Placitas........................ 64 85 58 81 / 5 50 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 63 89 58 85 / 0 40 20 30 Socorro......................... 66 93 59 88 / 5 60 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 81 53 78 / 0 60 20 50 Tijeras......................... 59 82 53 79 / 0 60 20 50 Edgewood........................ 58 82 51 79 / 5 70 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 83 48 79 / 5 80 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 55 77 49 74 / 5 70 50 70 Mountainair..................... 56 83 49 79 / 5 60 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 56 81 50 77 / 5 70 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 63 84 57 81 / 5 70 40 50 Ruidoso......................... 58 77 52 74 / 10 80 50 80 Capulin......................... 50 75 46 69 / 5 60 50 60 Raton........................... 51 79 48 74 / 0 60 50 60 Springer........................ 53 79 50 75 / 5 60 60 70 Las Vegas....................... 54 76 50 72 / 10 70 50 80 Clayton......................... 57 84 53 74 / 10 50 60 60 Roy............................. 56 79 50 72 / 5 60 70 60 Conchas......................... 60 86 54 79 / 5 50 80 70 Santa Rosa...................... 58 82 52 76 / 5 60 70 70 Tucumcari....................... 63 90 56 80 / 10 40 80 70 Clovis.......................... 62 89 56 78 / 20 30 80 90 Portales........................ 61 90 56 80 / 20 30 80 90 Fort Sumner..................... 61 87 54 79 / 10 60 80 70 Roswell......................... 65 90 59 82 / 20 60 80 50 Picacho......................... 59 84 54 78 / 20 70 60 70 Elk............................. 57 84 53 79 / 20 70 60 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ226.