textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous to widespread Monday and Tuesday, bringing widespread soaking rains. - There is a moderate (60-70%) risk for burn scar flash flooding in and near Ruidoso Monday afternoon into Monday night. There is a low to moderate (30-40%) risk on Tuesday.

- Severe storms can not be ruled out Monday across south central NM and on Tuesday across southeast NM.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

A 585dam 500mb high is overhead per the 18Z KABQ upper air sounding and today will be the warmest day of the next seven. PWATs are down slightly from yesterday and shear has trended down further, so severe thunderstorm probabilities are near zero. Strong/erratic wind gusts are the most likely impact with today's crop of daytime heating triggered convection and a few lucky folks may pick up 0.10-0.20" of rainfall. The forecast for Monday and Monday night has been consistently wet and this forecast cycle is in line with previous cycles. Moisture advection ahead of an approaching Pacific low is still forecast to bring PWATs to near daily record values by late day Monday. The Pacific low will lift northeast from over SoCal across AZ and toward the Four Corners Monday, pulling Gulf moisture into NM and resulting in numerous to widespread showers and storms by afternoon. PoPs are still forecast to peak across central and southeast NM Monday night. Showers and storms are forecast to move into the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros late Monday afternoon per the latest CAMs. The area from the South Central Mountains east to the TX border is favored for heavy rainfall Monday afternoon through Monday night and the WPC has included this area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on the day 2 outlook. The latest trends in instability and qpf have tipped the flood threat scale in favor of a Flash Flood Watch for the South Central Mountain for Monday afternoon/evening, with the main threat area being on and downstream of the South Fork, Salt and Seven Cabins burn scars. The SPC has included portions of Socorro, Lincoln and Chaves Counties in a marginal risk for severe storms on the day 2 outlook, with the main threat being severe wind gusts given fairly unidirectional wind profiles and modest instability. Lightning activity will trend down overnight with the loss of daytime heating as an area of showers pivots northeast into east central and northeast NM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

The Pacific low will open up into a shortwave trough and move east over NM on Tuesday, interacting with plentiful atmospheric moisture and after some daytime heating helping to kick off another round of convection. The greater shear and instability will reside across south central and southeast NM on Tuesday, where a few strong storms are likely. Another Flash Flood Watch may be required for the South Central Mountains on Tuesday, especially given saturated grounds by that point in time. A large and potent upper low over NV/CA Wednesday will steer stronger southwest flow aloft and much drier air into western NM, resulting in breezy conditions by afternoon. Sufficient moisture will remain across northeast NM Wednesday for more daytime heating triggered convection, but with low probabilities for severe storms. The upper low will steer even stronger southwesterlies into western NM on Thursday, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions by afternoon. Less wind is forecast Friday as the upper low lifts northeast toward the northern Rockies, which will pull Gulf moisture into east central and northeast NM and result in a round of convection. Lower forecast confidence for next weekend given some model spread at that projection, with the GFS being the consistently wetter solution, especially along east of the central mountain chain due to moist easterly low level flow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, although with the development of VFR cigs. Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening will be high-based and produce strong/erratic wind gusts, but are not forecast to impact TAF sites at this time. Showers and isolated storms will move north along the NM/AZ border Monday morning and may impact KGUP after 15Z with gusty winds and lower VFR cigs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least Wednesday. Moisture advection will ramp up Monday ahead of an approaching Pacific low, forecast to bring higher humidity and widespread wetting showers and storms from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A large upper low over the Great Basin will steer dry southwest flow into western NM Wednesday, bringing breezy conditions by afternoon. Chances for wetting precipitation will linger across eastern NM Wednesday, where Gulf moisture will be stubborn to scour-out. Winds will increase further on Thursday and critical fire weather conditions are possible, mainly across the Northwest Plateau. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible across the remainder of western NM on Thursday, but fuels may not be receptive to the rapid spread of fire conditional on the extent of wetting rainfall from Mon/Tue. Dry and warm conditions will persist across western areas Friday, but chances for wetting storms will continue with Gulf moisture across eastern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 79 50 77 / 0 30 40 20 Dulce........................... 44 78 44 71 / 5 40 60 70 Cuba............................ 49 74 43 70 / 5 40 80 60 Gallup.......................... 46 71 40 74 / 5 70 40 10 El Morro........................ 47 67 42 71 / 10 70 60 10 Grants.......................... 47 72 41 74 / 10 70 70 20 Quemado......................... 50 70 43 72 / 10 70 40 10 Magdalena....................... 56 71 48 71 / 5 70 80 70 Datil........................... 51 68 44 70 / 10 80 70 30 Reserve......................... 46 77 40 79 / 20 60 20 10 Glenwood........................ 47 81 43 84 / 30 60 20 10 Chama........................... 41 72 41 65 / 10 40 60 60 Los Alamos...................... 56 76 51 67 / 5 40 70 60 Pecos........................... 48 76 45 67 / 10 50 80 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 74 47 66 / 10 50 60 60 Red River....................... 39 64 39 57 / 10 70 70 70 Angel Fire...................... 35 69 37 62 / 10 60 80 70 Taos............................ 47 78 46 69 / 5 50 60 60 Mora............................ 47 73 46 64 / 10 50 80 70 Espanola........................ 52 83 51 75 / 5 30 60 60 Santa Fe........................ 53 77 50 68 / 5 50 70 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 80 48 71 / 5 50 70 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 79 55 76 / 5 60 80 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 80 53 77 / 0 50 80 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 82 52 80 / 0 50 80 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 80 53 78 / 0 50 70 40 Belen........................... 55 82 49 79 / 0 50 70 40 Bernalillo...................... 58 82 53 78 / 0 50 80 40 Bosque Farms.................... 54 81 48 79 / 5 50 70 40 Corrales........................ 57 81 51 79 / 0 50 80 40 Los Lunas....................... 54 81 48 79 / 0 50 70 40 Placitas........................ 60 79 54 73 / 5 60 80 40 Rio Rancho...................... 59 80 53 78 / 0 50 70 40 Socorro......................... 61 82 55 81 / 0 60 80 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 74 50 70 / 5 70 80 50 Tijeras......................... 56 76 50 71 / 5 70 80 40 Edgewood........................ 53 77 49 71 / 5 60 80 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 78 43 72 / 5 50 70 60 Clines Corners.................. 51 74 46 66 / 10 60 70 60 Mountainair..................... 53 75 47 72 / 0 60 80 50 Gran Quivira.................... 51 75 46 70 / 0 60 80 50 Carrizozo....................... 58 78 52 73 / 0 60 80 40 Ruidoso......................... 54 71 48 66 / 5 70 80 70 Capulin......................... 47 76 45 64 / 20 20 40 70 Raton........................... 46 80 46 68 / 10 20 50 60 Springer........................ 47 81 48 68 / 10 30 70 60 Las Vegas....................... 49 75 48 64 / 10 40 70 60 Clayton......................... 54 84 52 72 / 20 30 30 60 Roy............................. 52 79 49 67 / 10 30 70 70 Conchas......................... 57 87 54 73 / 10 40 70 70 Santa Rosa...................... 55 84 52 69 / 5 40 70 70 Tucumcari....................... 58 88 54 75 / 10 50 70 70 Clovis.......................... 56 87 54 73 / 20 30 70 70 Portales........................ 57 88 54 73 / 20 30 70 80 Fort Sumner..................... 57 87 53 73 / 5 50 80 70 Roswell......................... 61 91 57 76 / 0 20 80 60 Picacho......................... 56 83 51 72 / 5 40 70 70 Elk............................. 53 80 48 73 / 5 40 70 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ226.