textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern NM through Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the high terrain during the afternoon hours before spreading onto adjacent lower elevation areas starting Monday and continuing through at least mid week. The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up as well with daily rounds of precipitation.

- Temperatures will rise mid to late next week resulting in moderate heat risk for lower elevation locations. Heat-illnesses will increase for those sensitive to heat, and those without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 144 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms across southeast and far northeast NM early Sunday morning behind a boundary pushing westward into the Rio Grande Valley. Most of these showers should taper off shortly to around sunrise. The aforementioned boundary across central NM combined with higher moisture as indicated by PWATS between 0.6 to 1.1 inches and an approaching upper level disturbance over California will help result in the development of showers and thunderstorms across the southwest mountains and central mountain chain midday before moving into nearby lower elevations during the mid afternoon and evening hours. Will have to keep an eye on potential burn scar flash flooding in the Ruidoso area with the HREF max 6 hour rainfall amounts around 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Given the dry antecedent soils and low confidence in potential flash flooding on the burn scar, opted to not issue a Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area for today. As storms move off the central mountain chain into eastern NM, they will be capable of becoming strong to severe due to MLCAPE values > 1000 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Some virga activity with some sprinkles and gusty and erratic winds across parts of the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will be seasonably hot areawide with lower elevations tipping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity across east central NM late this evening along with some gusty east canyon winds across the Santa Fe and ABQ Metros before clearing skies after midnight.

Higher moisture pushes west into western NM Monday morning with PWATS across western and central NM around 0.6 to 0.9 inches. Strong daytime heating will result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western and central mountains midday with a slow drift to the south and southeast during the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms across southwest and central NM will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with a higher risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Showers and storms across northwest and west central NM will be drier in nature with more in the way of gusty and erratic winds over heavier rainfall. Outside of the storms, it will be hot with most lower elevations topping out in the low to mid 90s. Showers and storms across the state gradually taper off during the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The upper high over the state Monday shifts west into eastern Arizona Tuesday with an upper level disturbance moving across the northern and central Rockies. A moist airmass in place with PWATs around 0.6 to 1 inch combined with daytime heating will once again result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain midday before slowly drifting south and southeast into surrounding lower elevations later in the afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will be drier in nature across northwest NM. Showers and storms will taper off around midnight. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday as the upper high shifts further west to off the coast of Southern CA. Drier air looks to push into northwest NM due to the position of the upper high. High temperatures will be in the 90s for most both afternoons.

The monsoon high shifts back east towards the state Thursday into Friday before moving over the central Rockies and strengthening to around 600 dam at 500 mb next weekend. This will result in a lower coverage of showers and storms across the higher terrain with most lower elevation areas remaining dry. The higher mid and upper level heights and lower storm coverage will also result in hotter temperatures areawide with lower elevations topping out in the 90s to low 100s, thus resulting in a moderate risk for heat related illnesses.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A couple of storms still linger across the SE, with dry conditions elsewhere. There is a low chance of an isolated storm or two developing overnight across the far eastern plains, but storm intensity should remain low.

A boundary has pushed through the gaps of the central mtn chain, creating a brief period of gusty east/southeast winds. These winds should peak between 06Z and 09Z, then diminish thereafter.

Scattered storms Sunday will focus along and east of the central mountain chain, although storms along the central mtn chain may create gusty outflow winds along the Rio Grande Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storm coverage will peak mid to late afternoon, with coverage waning after 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Higher moisture moving in from the east and south will result in better shower and thunderstorm chances early this week, favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain today and all higher terrain areas before drifting into nearby lower elevations beginning Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall across central and eastern New Mexico along with a higher risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Showers and storms across northwest NM will be on the drier side with gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning strikes being the bigger threat. Lowering shower and thunderstorm coverage across the higher terrain late next week along with hotter temperatures as an upper high shifts back east to over the central Rockies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 64 96 64 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 93 48 93 49 / 0 0 10 5 Cuba............................ 90 58 90 58 / 0 0 10 20 Gallup.......................... 91 55 91 55 / 0 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 86 57 87 56 / 5 5 40 10 Grants.......................... 90 57 91 56 / 0 5 50 10 Quemado......................... 88 60 89 58 / 0 5 50 20 Magdalena....................... 87 65 88 63 / 10 5 50 5 Datil........................... 84 62 85 59 / 5 5 60 20 Reserve......................... 93 57 94 54 / 5 5 60 30 Glenwood........................ 98 62 98 59 / 10 5 50 30 Chama........................... 86 48 85 48 / 0 0 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 87 64 / 5 0 40 20 Pecos........................... 88 54 89 56 / 20 0 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 87 56 / 5 0 20 10 Red River....................... 77 46 78 48 / 20 5 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 81 42 82 45 / 20 5 40 10 Taos............................ 89 51 90 53 / 5 0 20 10 Mora............................ 83 52 85 54 / 40 5 50 10 Espanola........................ 95 60 95 61 / 0 0 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 89 61 90 63 / 5 0 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 59 92 60 / 0 0 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 95 69 / 5 5 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 65 97 65 / 5 5 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 64 99 64 / 0 5 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 67 97 68 / 5 5 10 10 Belen........................... 97 63 98 63 / 0 5 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 97 65 98 66 / 5 5 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 97 62 97 62 / 0 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 98 66 99 66 / 5 5 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 97 63 98 64 / 0 5 10 10 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 67 / 5 5 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 97 66 97 67 / 5 5 10 10 Socorro......................... 98 70 99 68 / 10 5 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 61 90 62 / 5 5 20 20 Tijeras......................... 90 61 91 62 / 5 5 20 20 Edgewood........................ 91 56 92 58 / 5 5 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 53 93 54 / 10 10 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 86 54 87 57 / 20 5 30 20 Mountainair..................... 90 57 91 58 / 20 5 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 88 59 89 59 / 30 10 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 91 64 92 64 / 50 10 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 83 58 83 59 / 60 10 60 20 Capulin......................... 83 51 86 55 / 70 20 40 20 Raton........................... 88 50 90 54 / 60 10 30 5 Springer........................ 89 52 92 55 / 50 10 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 86 54 88 57 / 40 10 50 10 Clayton......................... 90 58 92 63 / 50 30 10 10 Roy............................. 86 55 89 60 / 40 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 94 60 97 64 / 30 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 90 59 92 63 / 30 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 94 61 96 67 / 30 40 5 20 Clovis.......................... 93 62 94 66 / 30 50 10 20 Portales........................ 94 62 95 67 / 30 40 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 94 62 95 66 / 20 30 10 20 Roswell......................... 97 66 97 69 / 10 20 5 5 Picacho......................... 91 62 92 63 / 30 20 30 5 Elk............................. 89 59 90 60 / 40 20 40 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.