textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Slick travel conditions due to valley rain and mountain snow will favor the northern half of New Mexico Saturday.

- There is a very low (<10%) risk of flooding impacts over northwestern New Mexico Saturday.

- Quieter conditions expected Sunday and Monday, with unsettled weather returning across western and central New Mexico late Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show a jet maxima diving southeast from central CA toward AZ/NM. This jet streak is forecast progress east across NM today, while carving out an upper low along the NM/CO border. This dynamic setup will bring a solid round of precipitation that will focus along/west of the Continental Divide and across the northern mountains. However, snow levels will be relatively high, generally 8.5Kft or higher. Snow accumulation through this evening will favor the peaks of the northern mountains, especially the Tusas Mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory is currently in effect. Advisory-type amounts will likely show up at ski resort level in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains, but impacts will be minimal at best. Sufficient instability is forecast this afternoon for some thundersnow across the northern mountains, with graupel likely at the lower elevations. Otherwise, today will be cooler, with high temperatures 5-15 degrees below average. Expect some improvement on Sunday as an upper level ridge follows behind the departing upper low. A backdoor cold front will move into the northeast and east central plains Saturday night into Sunday with moisture trapped in the frontal layer providing a fog setup, which is showing up in the latest GFS MOS at locales like Clayton and Tucumcari. Sunday will be warmer west of the backdoor cold front, but still a few degrees below average for most locales.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Areas of fog will likely develop Sunday night into Monday morning as an upper level ridge amplifies over the region and high humidity remains trapped in the lower boundary layer. Otherwise, Monday will be warmer most areas, with high temperatures near to slightly above average across central and western NM. The upper level ridge will shift east of the area Monday night and give way to increasing southwest flow aloft and moisture advection Tuesday ahead of an approaching upper level trough. The latest model consensus is for the upper level trough to lift northeast from AZ/UT and weaken as it moves across CO/NM. However, sufficient forcing from the upper level trough combined with above average PWATs across our area will result in a solid round of precipitation that will favor western/northern NM and especially the mountains. Snow levels and amounts will be similar to today's event and may require an advisory for the Tusas Mountains. Breezy to windy conditions will come with the upper level trough late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across northeast NM in closer proximity to a deepening lee side trough. Expect a break late Wedenesday into Thursday, with another potential round of precipitation by Friday as an upper level low progresses east from over the Great Basin. However, model spread is still an issue with this system, so forecast confidence for the end of the week is relatively low at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Scattered showers will continue through the night, increasing in coverage across western and northern NM after 12Z. Cigs and vis will continue to deteriorate over the next 12 hours from the west. Patchy fog may develop tonight in areas with wet soils, but it should be short-lived in most areas. The most persistent MVFR to IFR conditions are likely across northern NM between 12Z and 21Z tomorrow when the heaviest and most persistent rain/snow showers will occur. The NBM is bullish about significant cig reductions across western and central areas as well, but it is notably more aggressive than MOS guidance. Rain and mountain snow showers tomorrow will generally favor areas north of I-40, with lesser coverage in southern areas. Snow levels begin around 9.5kft tonight, dropping to around 7.5kft by Saturday night. Showers taper off from northwest to southeast after 00Z, with only a few lingering showers in the northeast by 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. High humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation will prevail through tonight as a developing upper level low slides east across northern NM. An upper level ridge will follow with some drying prior to another round of wetting precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level trough progresses east across the region. Vent rates will be poor to fair on Sunday and Monday under the influence of the upper level ridge. Another system may bring more wetting precipitation by the end of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 51 33 52 33 / 90 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 27 54 23 / 90 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 45 30 50 29 / 80 30 0 0 Gallup.......................... 47 24 52 25 / 90 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 25 52 28 / 90 30 0 0 Grants.......................... 47 29 53 29 / 70 30 0 0 Quemado......................... 49 30 53 29 / 40 20 0 0 Magdalena....................... 52 33 53 34 / 20 5 0 0 Datil........................... 47 31 51 30 / 20 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 52 27 59 27 / 30 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 30 62 32 / 40 0 0 0 Chama........................... 39 24 48 25 / 100 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 32 51 33 / 90 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 46 28 53 26 / 90 30 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 28 49 28 / 100 30 0 0 Red River....................... 36 23 44 22 / 90 30 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 15 48 11 / 90 20 0 0 Taos............................ 45 25 53 23 / 90 10 0 0 Mora............................ 47 28 51 25 / 70 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 51 29 58 29 / 90 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 32 53 31 / 90 20 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 30 54 30 / 90 20 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 36 58 37 / 70 30 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 34 59 33 / 60 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 33 62 33 / 50 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 36 60 35 / 60 20 0 0 Belen........................... 58 33 59 32 / 40 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 35 61 35 / 70 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 31 60 30 / 50 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 56 36 60 35 / 70 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 32 60 32 / 50 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 36 56 36 / 80 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 56 36 60 35 / 60 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 37 61 36 / 30 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 30 52 31 / 80 30 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 34 54 34 / 80 30 0 0 Edgewood........................ 50 31 55 30 / 80 30 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 27 56 25 / 70 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 32 51 31 / 70 20 0 0 Mountainair..................... 51 31 55 30 / 70 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 51 32 55 31 / 70 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 36 57 34 / 50 20 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 34 53 32 / 40 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 44 32 46 30 / 90 50 5 0 Raton........................... 49 30 53 28 / 80 30 0 0 Springer........................ 52 31 54 29 / 60 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 49 29 51 29 / 50 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 45 36 46 37 / 80 70 10 0 Roy............................. 50 34 48 32 / 80 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 61 37 54 35 / 70 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 39 53 36 / 50 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 59 39 51 36 / 80 30 0 0 Clovis.......................... 58 41 52 38 / 60 50 0 0 Portales........................ 61 42 53 38 / 60 50 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 41 55 37 / 70 30 0 0 Roswell......................... 65 43 57 41 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 60 40 58 38 / 5 5 0 0 Elk............................. 58 34 59 34 / 10 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for NMZ210.