textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern and central New Mexico this week, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas.

LONG

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

By Wednesday, a deep upper low will be moving into northern CA while the high moves a bit closer to the MS valley. This will continue to squeeze subtropical moisture into NM, from a more due south direction through Thursday as the low moves farther inland. Deterministic and probabilistic guidance continue to paint widespread QPF over NM Wednesday and Thursday with PWATs continuing to hover within a 1.0 to 1.3 inch range. Storm motions would likely increase to a 15 to 25 mph pace in the confluent southerly steering flow both of these days, but the day-by-day blotting of precipitation over northern and central NM will start to lead to wetter soils and any training would pose runoff and flooding concerns, mostly on small, localized scales. There are also large uncertainties with excessive mid to high cloud cover which may impede destabilization during the afternoons. Temperatures will run considerably cooler (about 3 to 6 degrees below normal), especially in western and central zones, and prolonged cloud cover could even push these values lower.

By Friday the upper low will move farther inland with a trailing trough over the Great Basin. This will introduce a drier and more westerly wind component aloft into the northwestern third of NM, reducing rain chances there, but remaining areas should continue to observe scattered to numerous showers and storms. Westerlies overtake more of the forecast area into Saturday, reducing storm chances more. There are some discrepancies among deterministic model members by Sunday, but the consensus is that the driest air will be found in western areas of the forecast area with an overall continued decrease in storm coverage for all zones. The exception to this generalization might be the northeastern corner of NM where another weak, but moist backdoor front could enter.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS)

Showers and thunderstorms will be more common through the evening, particularly over western and central New Mexico with lesser activity in northeastern areas of the state. Timing of storms at local terminals will be challenging through the evening, as many locales might get multiple or repeated rounds of brief- lived showers or storms. Thunderstorms will present typical aviation hazards of gusty downburst winds, small hail, lightning, and brief reductions in ceiling and visibility. Precipitation will turn more showery with fewer thunderstorms by midnight (0600UTC), but a few will survive well into the early morning hours Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A day-by-day increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage is projected through the middle of the week before drier air starts to nose into western areas Friday and more-so into Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to an increased likelihood of wetting rainfall and much needed fuel moisture, especially for western and central zones. The increased moisture, clouds, and precipitation will also lead to cooler temperatures, and humidity will trend upward with good to excellent overnight recoveries occurring area- wide by the middle of the week. No widespread or long duration wind concerns are forecast, and localized thunderstorm outflows will present the main wind challenges this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 79 59 78 / 50 20 60 80 Dulce........................... 45 79 47 76 / 60 40 70 90 Cuba............................ 51 75 52 74 / 60 40 50 90 Gallup.......................... 51 76 52 75 / 50 50 50 90 El Morro........................ 49 74 51 73 / 50 50 60 90 Grants.......................... 52 77 54 76 / 50 60 50 100 Quemado......................... 54 75 55 75 / 60 80 60 90 Magdalena....................... 58 76 59 76 / 60 70 60 80 Datil........................... 54 73 55 73 / 60 70 50 100 Reserve......................... 54 80 56 79 / 40 60 70 90 Glenwood........................ 59 87 60 85 / 40 50 70 90 Chama........................... 46 72 48 70 / 50 50 70 90 Los Alamos...................... 57 76 59 75 / 40 50 70 90 Pecos........................... 54 80 55 78 / 40 60 50 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 76 53 74 / 30 50 50 80 Red River....................... 45 67 46 67 / 30 60 60 80 Angel Fire...................... 38 72 38 71 / 30 60 70 80 Taos............................ 49 80 51 79 / 30 40 50 80 Mora............................ 52 76 52 76 / 20 70 70 80 Espanola........................ 56 83 58 82 / 40 40 60 90 Santa Fe........................ 58 79 59 78 / 50 40 60 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 81 57 80 / 50 30 60 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 81 65 84 / 50 30 50 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 83 62 84 / 50 30 50 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 83 61 84 / 60 30 50 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 83 64 83 / 50 30 50 80 Belen........................... 60 85 61 85 / 60 30 50 80 Bernalillo...................... 62 86 63 85 / 50 30 50 80 Bosque Farms.................... 59 85 60 84 / 60 30 50 80 Corrales........................ 61 84 63 83 / 50 30 50 80 Los Lunas....................... 60 85 61 84 / 60 30 50 80 Placitas........................ 61 82 62 81 / 50 30 50 80 Rio Rancho...................... 62 84 63 83 / 50 30 50 80 Socorro......................... 64 87 65 83 / 60 40 50 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 79 57 78 / 50 40 50 80 Tijeras......................... 58 80 59 79 / 50 40 50 80 Edgewood........................ 54 82 55 80 / 50 50 60 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 83 53 82 / 50 60 60 80 Clines Corners.................. 54 80 54 79 / 50 60 70 80 Mountainair..................... 55 81 56 80 / 60 50 50 80 Gran Quivira.................... 56 80 56 80 / 60 40 60 80 Carrizozo....................... 61 83 61 83 / 80 50 50 80 Ruidoso......................... 57 79 56 77 / 50 70 60 100 Capulin......................... 56 74 54 79 / 30 20 80 70 Raton........................... 54 80 54 81 / 30 40 80 80 Springer........................ 55 83 55 84 / 30 50 80 80 Las Vegas....................... 55 79 55 78 / 30 60 80 80 Clayton......................... 65 81 60 88 / 30 10 60 20 Roy............................. 59 81 58 81 / 30 20 80 70 Conchas......................... 66 90 64 90 / 30 40 90 60 Santa Rosa...................... 64 87 62 85 / 50 50 70 60 Tucumcari....................... 65 91 63 90 / 30 40 90 40 Clovis.......................... 66 93 64 91 / 50 30 90 20 Portales........................ 67 94 65 91 / 50 40 90 20 Fort Sumner..................... 66 92 64 90 / 60 30 70 40 Roswell......................... 67 95 66 93 / 50 30 60 20 Picacho......................... 62 88 60 86 / 40 80 50 80 Elk............................. 59 86 58 85 / 30 70 50 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.