textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase over northern and central New Mexico early next week. Strong and erratic downburst wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with the stronger cells.

- The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up beginning Sunday.

- Temperatures will rise mid to late next week resulting in moderate heat risk for lower elevation locations. Heat-illnesses will increase for those sensitive to heat, and those without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Main concern in the short term is smoke from the Sacaton fire in the Gila. Smoke will travel northeastward toward Socorro and Belen today, though it's expected to remain aloft in these areas, much like this morning. Any visibility concerns will be focused closer to the fire. Nonetheless, smoke and haze will be visible across much of southwest and south central NM. Additionally, it's possible smoke from the Pocket fire near Sedona, AZ will shift over northwest NM overnight as well. Again, smoke will remain aloft.

We will also continue to watch the bubbling cu across the South Central Mountains through early evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm or two will be possible. These storms would likely produce gusty and erratic winds in addition to light rain.

Otherwise, the upper high will continue to slowly build over the region through Independence Day. PWATs will creep upward, which will result in virga across western NM and a few more storms along and east of the South Central Mountains. Have introduced mentionable PoPs across the southeast and portions of the east central plains based on various CAM depictions of QPF Saturday afternoon. An outflow boundary emanating from storms in KS will push into northeast NM early Saturday evening. This boundary will be a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms and a few showers and thunderstorms may linger through the overnight hours across eastern NM. It seems that Mother Nature will have a few fireworks of her own.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A weak Pacific disturbance will shift northeastward over SoCal and AZ on Saturday and will continue to round the upper high on Sunday across the Four Corners region and northern NM. This will bring subtropical moisture into western NM. On Sunday, this will only result in more virga, a few more sprinkles, and lower cloud bases, but will help set the stage for a more active Monday. Meanwhile, the aforementioned outflow boundary across northeast NM on Saturday will have pressed up against the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Moist upslope flow combined with the upper level disturbance rounding the high will allow another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Sunday afternoon. As the center of the upper high shifts slightly westward, storms across northeast NM will tend to shift toward the southeast through the evening. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and modest shear will allow for a few strong to severe storms with hail and damaging winds. Further south along the Central Mtn Chain, low level return flow will set the stage for a few storms in this area during the afternoon as well. With PWATs between 0.8 and 1.0 inches and slow storm motions, storm may contain heavy rainfall.

The storms across eastern NM should push an outflow boundary through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Sunday evening. This will help bring low level moisture into the Rio Grande Valley and points westward. With more moisture in place overall, a typical monsoon set up looks to prevail Monday through Thursday with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the high terrain in the afternoon and shifting onto lower elevations with the aid of outflow boundary collisions through the evening. The upper high will meander through this period, from being over western NM on Monday, to shifting westward Tuesday and focusing over the CA coast on Wednesday. While no big moisture intrusions are expected through the period, the moisture that will be in place Sunday will continue to recycle in the form of daily thunderstorms. Northwest NM will likely remain dry overall, especially as drier air will nose into northwest NM Wednesday and especially Thursday. Along the edges of this drier air, there could be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Isolated high-based SHRA/TS over southeast NM will elevate the risk for downburst wind gusts >40KT near KROW thru sunset. Areas of smoke may produce local vsby reductions over southwest NM in the vcnty of the Sacaton Fire. Saturday will feature slightly greater coverage of high-based SHRA/TS over southeast NM with a few stronger cells possible. An area of virga with downburst wind gusts will also develop over west-central NM by late day then shift east on outflow boundaries into the RGV near sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Very dry conditions continue this afternoon and evening across all but the east central plains. Between 6 and 15 hours of single digit humidity is expected today, with a few locations with an even longer duration. These dry conditions only improve slightly on Saturday. Most of these same areas will still see between 6 and 12 hours of single digit humidity. Though southwest breezes are noted today across northern NM, winds will be lighter on Saturday. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern in the short term is smoke from area wildfires.

The combination of a Pacific disturbance shifting around the upper high on Saturday and Sunday, and a moist outflow boundary shifting into eastern NM, will increase the moisture and potential for showers and thunderstorms early next week. On Sunday, storms will remain focused along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, but by Monday, storms will be focused across the high terrain areawide. Daily rounds of thunderstorms will persist through mid week favoring the high terrain in the afternoon and lower elevations in the evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, though a mix of wet and dry storms appear more likely across western NM, especially Wed and Thu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 51 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 91 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 91 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 47 91 54 89 / 0 5 5 0 Quemado......................... 53 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 55 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 93 55 91 / 0 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 51 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 85 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 54 91 56 87 / 0 0 0 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 10 Red River....................... 40 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 30 Angel Fire...................... 29 82 38 79 / 0 0 0 40 Taos............................ 47 90 51 87 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 50 88 54 81 / 0 5 0 60 Espanola........................ 57 96 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 99 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 98 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 99 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 61 98 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 57 98 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 99 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 98 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 94 66 92 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 61 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 61 92 62 90 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 58 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 94 53 91 / 0 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 90 57 86 / 0 0 0 20 Mountainair..................... 58 94 58 90 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 60 92 60 88 / 0 0 0 30 Carrizozo....................... 66 95 66 92 / 0 10 0 30 Ruidoso......................... 60 87 61 84 / 5 40 5 50 Capulin......................... 57 88 53 82 / 0 0 30 80 Raton........................... 54 93 54 86 / 0 0 20 70 Springer........................ 54 95 55 87 / 0 0 5 60 Las Vegas....................... 54 92 55 84 / 0 5 0 40 Clayton......................... 65 95 62 89 / 0 5 30 50 Roy............................. 62 94 59 86 / 0 0 10 60 Conchas......................... 67 101 65 95 / 0 0 10 40 Santa Rosa...................... 65 97 64 92 / 0 0 5 40 Tucumcari....................... 71 102 67 94 / 0 0 30 40 Clovis.......................... 68 99 67 93 / 0 20 30 20 Portales........................ 69 100 68 95 / 0 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 100 67 96 / 0 10 10 30 Roswell......................... 70 101 71 98 / 5 20 5 10 Picacho......................... 64 96 64 92 / 10 30 5 20 Elk............................. 61 93 62 89 / 10 40 10 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.