textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the lower elevations of central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

- Localized erratic wind gust to 50 mph or greater from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall, late Wednesday across much of western and northern New Mexico then in far eastern New Mexico on Thursday.

- Moderate chance (50-60%) of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday, with a high chance (60-80%) on Sunday due to strengthening winds.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Clear skies prevail again tonight underneath a ridge that has amplified all the way into central Canada. A long plume of sub- tropical moisture that extends thousands of kilometers to the southwest is pushing into Southern AZ tonight and will move northward into the southern Rockies this afternoon. For May, this moisture is quite impressive, with PWATs above the 90th percentile over the Continental Divide. As a result, scattered to even widespread virga showers will develop along and west of the central mtn chain this afternoon, with showers moving off to the northeast through the day. While there will be quite a few showers out there, most of the rain will not reach the ground given the dry and deep boundary layer. Evaporative cooling induced by rain falling into this layer will likely generate a few dry microbursts with the potential to produce wind gusts up to around 50 mph. Instability is modest, limited by the exiting ridge so storms will be far and few between. The best chance for storms is actually along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns where a few hi-res models are showing pockets of enhance instability (CAPE ~300 J/kg). With sunset not until around 8PM this time of year, showers will continue into the evening hours, eventually decaying with the loss of daytime heating.

The sub-tropical moisture plume over western NM will get tilted Wednesday night into Thursday in response increasing westerly flow north of the sub-tropical jet. There should be just enough moisture lingering across eastern NM for a few high-based showers in the early afternoon hours before dry westerly flow takes over later in the day. Once again, dry microbursts will be a concern and the increasing westerly winds should help to enhance gusts as well. Widespread breezy conditions are likely around the region, with the strongest wind gusts (25 to 35 mph) in eastern NM.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Relatively quiet weather will prevail Friday and Saturday, with quasi-zonal flow over New Mexico in between the sub-tropical and polar jet streams. Temperatures will be above average both days, with the largest departures from normal in the east, where it will be around 15 degrees above average.

The synoptic pattern looks to become more active on Sunday as a longwave trough moves into The Great Basin. Model agreement has increased over the past 24 hours, although there is still some disagreement with regard to the depth of this approaching trough. Regardless, it will put dry southwesterly flow over New Mexico and forecast wind speeds have recently trended stronger. It will also be very dry and warm, setting the stage for a day with widespread high fire danger. Monday will likely be similar to Sunday, although cooler as the base of the trough swings through the southern Rockies. Most models (~70%) show the jet stream pulling off to the north after this trough exits into the Plains, but a minority of models (~30%) are keeping the strong southwest to west flow around, which would keep the windy conditions around into the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Scattered high based showers and a few storms will focus over western NM this afternoon and evening, with isolated showers as far east as the highlands east of the central mountain chain. Strong and erratic outflow wind gusts up to 40 kts will be the main concern with convection. Showers and storms will dissipate after 02Z, except for a few showers lingering later in the Four Corners area.

A light southerly breeze will prevail today in most areas, which will continue into the night in eastern NM. There is a low chance of LLWS between 06Z and 12Z tonight at KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

A S-N oriented sub-tropical moisture plume will set up over western NM today, sparking scattered virga showers and a few storms. Given the dry boundary layer, any storms that do develop will produce very little to no rainfall and therefore pose a threat to start new fires in receptive fuels. Dry microbursts will be the main concern with convection that develops, with localized wind gusts up to 50 mph a possibility in the western two thirds of the state.

A few gusty showers may develop early Thursday afternoon in the eastern plains, but dry westerly flow will take over later in the afternoon, creating locally critical fire weather conditions in eastern NM. The likelihood of critical fire weather conditions has not changed much (still around 50-60%) so the Fire Weather Watch was not yet upgraded.

Winds will likely weaken Friday and Saturday as New Mexico gets sandwiched in between the polar and sub-tropical jets. This will likely change on Sunday as a trough begins to deepen over The Great Basin. This will place New Mexico under dry southwest flow, with confidence increasing for potentially widespread critical fire weather conditions. The base of this trough will swing through the southern Rockies on Monday on what could be another critical fire weather day. Westerly flow will likely (~70% chance) weaken Tuesday and Wednesday next week, but there is a decent chance (~30%) that breezy to windy conditions will continue, keeping fire danger concerns high.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 89 50 83 46 / 20 20 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 41 79 35 / 5 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 83 47 79 43 / 20 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 84 42 79 41 / 20 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 81 46 77 44 / 20 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 84 46 81 44 / 20 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 81 45 80 43 / 10 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 83 54 82 52 / 10 10 5 0 Datil........................... 80 50 80 47 / 10 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 88 44 85 40 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 92 44 88 41 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 81 39 75 37 / 10 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 58 79 53 / 10 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 83 50 80 47 / 20 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 50 76 44 / 10 20 0 0 Red River....................... 72 44 67 39 / 10 20 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 34 73 31 / 20 20 0 0 Taos............................ 85 45 80 39 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 82 50 79 47 / 20 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 90 54 86 47 / 10 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 54 80 50 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 52 83 46 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 60 87 55 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 56 89 52 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 52 92 48 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 57 90 53 / 10 10 0 0 Belen........................... 93 49 91 45 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 93 56 90 51 / 10 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 93 48 91 43 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 94 57 91 52 / 10 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 93 49 90 45 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 60 85 54 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 57 90 52 / 10 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 95 59 93 56 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 57 82 51 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 86 55 83 51 / 10 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 87 55 84 49 / 10 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 49 85 45 / 10 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 81 50 / 10 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 87 52 85 48 / 10 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 54 84 50 / 10 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 88 61 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 82 60 81 56 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 82 51 81 45 / 10 20 5 0 Raton........................... 85 49 85 44 / 20 20 5 0 Springer........................ 87 50 87 45 / 20 20 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 54 82 49 / 20 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 88 61 90 55 / 5 10 10 5 Roy............................. 85 55 86 50 / 10 10 5 0 Conchas......................... 94 60 94 52 / 5 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 56 90 53 / 10 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 64 97 54 / 0 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 97 60 96 57 / 0 0 10 0 Portales........................ 98 59 97 57 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 59 94 54 / 5 0 10 0 Roswell......................... 97 62 97 61 / 5 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 92 57 91 59 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 91 58 90 57 / 10 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.