textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Cooler temperatures will be observed today across the eastern plains, but otherwise dry and unseasonably warm weather will be on tap through the end of the week. Numerous high temperature records will be in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday.

- Breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday and Friday along and east of the Central Mountain Chain will create difficult crosswinds for large and high-profile vehicles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1205 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

The west-versus-east dichotomy across the ConUS continues with the upper low moving over the northeastern states and an upper ridge cresting over the central to southern Rockies. The former sent down a potent cold front through the plains yesterday and last night with low stratus clouds still being slow to erode away over east central NM early this afternoon. Temperatures will be stunted by this front in eastern zones, but still remaining relatively mild by mid December standards. With the surface high setting up over the southeastern states late tonight, light southerly winds will be ushered into our southeastern counties, bringing the potential for another round of low stratus and patchy freezing fog through Monday morning. This will be on a smaller scale than what was observed this morning, roughly impacting areas along and east of a Roswell to Clovis line through Monday morning.

Lee-side troughing will then increase the southwesterly breezes in the east central plains of NM going into Monday afternoon, and these drier downslope winds will gobble up any stratus. The light to moderate (10-20 mph)downslope breezes will also boost temperatures considerably on Monday with most areas returning 5 to 20 degrees above normal. A couple of weak eastern Pacific perturbations will be moving inland near the Baja Peninsula and upper Gulf of CA, but these features remain somewhat barotropic with minimal mid to low layer moisture to work with. Other than a continuation of high cirrus clouds the ill-defined troughs/lows will be inconsequential.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

The remnants of the Pacific troughs on Monday will slide eastward into Monday night and Tuesday, with a weak wind shift at the surface following late in the day in northeastern NM. Daytime highs on Tuesday will again be 10 to 20 degrees above normal in most zones with dry conditions and light to moderately breezy (5 to 25 mph) persisting.

The westerlies aloft increase into Wednesday, although the nose of the 300 mb jet looks to be lagging a bit slower than what was noted 24 hours ago. Still, speeds surge up with 300 mb wind speeds mapped to reach 150 to 165 kt over northwestern states into parts of WY. Speeds will be lower toward NM, but still much higher than recent days with 700 mb speeds giving a decent proxy for what might be expected at ridge top level across northern NM, on the order of 40 to 60 kt near the Sangre de Cristos. Blended guidance from the NBM is running too low, so forecast speeds were forced upward on Wednesday, but likely not enough. Look for likely increases in speeds over the northern mountains and surrounding highlands with subsequent forecast packages as higher resolution guidance filters in, and speeds would likely be supportive (gusts to 50 mph) of some Wind Advisories Wednesday. Temperatures will remain exceptionally warm on Wednesday with many longstanding daily record highs being met or exceeded.

The speed max aloft on Wednesday will be followed by a backdoor frontal intrusion. Despite sending temperatures tumbling 10 to 20 degrees in eastern zones Thursday, daytime highs will still be at or well above normal. After a reduction on Thursday, the zonal flow aloft begins to increase again Friday and Saturday. This dry flow will not offer any precipitation, but breezy to windy conditions will redevelop each afternoon with temperatures more akin to a day in early March rather than late December.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Low stratus clouds continue to impact east central New Mexico, namely the Pecos valley eastward, including KCVN, KROW, KTCC and nearby areas. Ceilings are currently ranging from IFR (Instrument Flight rules with ceilings less than 500 ft) to MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules with ceilings less than 3,000 ft). However, satellite imagery indicates that the areal extent of these low clouds is shrinking. Expect VFR conditions to return and prevail in all areas by 14/2000UTC in the early afternoon. Thereafter, high fair weather cirrus clouds will continue moving overhead with light to locally moderate breezes prevailing. Low clouds will potentially redevelop in the lower Pecos valley near KROW and towards KCVN again late tonight into Monday morning with MVFR ceilings and patchy visibility reductions in freezing fog.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Aside from a couple of exceptions in northeastern to east central NM today and again on Thursday, high temperatures will repeatedly be well above average through the week ahead. This will be coupled with low afternoon humidity ranging from 15 to 35% each day. Winds will surge up on Wednesday and again on Friday with gusts to 25 to 35 mph being more common and also low, but significant, chances for higher gusts of 40 to 50 mph over the Sangre de Cristos and nearby northeast to central highlands. Fortunately, stronger areas of winds are not forecast to be juxtaposed or coincident with critically low humidity, and fuels are not believed to be overly susceptible to carrying fire due to lower Energy Release Components (ERC's). Widespread areas of poor mixing and inefficient smoke ventilation and dispersion are modeled for each day with some relief coming Wednesday and Friday when winds strengthen.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 29 54 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 57 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 27 57 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 19 60 16 58 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 59 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 21 61 18 59 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 24 60 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 31 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 26 60 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 26 67 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 30 70 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 52 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 34 55 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 31 60 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 27 53 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 18 51 16 49 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 6 54 2 53 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 21 56 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 62 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 26 60 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 29 56 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 27 57 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 57 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 58 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 28 60 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 32 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 26 59 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 31 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 27 58 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 34 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 33 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 32 60 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 32 55 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 29 56 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 60 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 29 55 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 30 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 29 57 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 33 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 28 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 63 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 24 66 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 23 67 23 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 65 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 33 68 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 65 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 27 66 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 68 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 69 28 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 28 63 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 26 65 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 25 62 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 25 59 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 32 68 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 30 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.