textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 420 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

- The jet stream will bring strong to potentially damaging westerly winds to eastern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday, with potential for more rain and high terrain snow across western and north central New Mexico.

- There is an increasing threat for the rapid spread of fire across eastern New Mexico and portions of south central New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1122 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

The departing upper low is advancing rapidly east across central TX and an upper level ridge will follow behind it over NM tonight, then shift east of our area late Sunday giving way to increasing southwest flow aloft and a deepening lee side trough. This scenario will bring a warming/drying trend, with high temperatures forecast to reach well above average on Sunday. Low probabilities for fog or freezing fog exist early Sunday morning across northern NM, with the two relative higher forecast confidence areas being the upper RGV near Taos and the Moreno Valley near Angel Fire, where some snow melt will play a role. Lee side troughing will bring breezy conditions to northeast and east central areas Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1122 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Southwest flow aloft will continue to trend up Monday as the polar jet stream turns inland over SoCal and the Desert SW. An even deeper lee side trough is forecast to develop Monday afternoon, down to near 999mb, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions to much of eastern NM. Daytime mixing of stronger southwest winds aloft will bring locally windy conditions to far western NM late Monday afternoon as well. The polar jet will progress east over NM Monday night through Tuesday, steering both Pacific moisture and much stronger winds directly over the state. 300mb wind speeds are still modeled to reach up to near an impressive 170kts over northern NM on Tuesday. High forecast confidence exists for strong to damaging winds across our area Tuesday, with the strongest winds along and east of the central mountain chain where gusts to between 60-70mph are possible. A High Wind Watch will likely be issued later tonight or Sunday. Strong orographic forcing combined with ample PWATs will bring good chances for accumulating snow to the western and northern mountains late Monday night through Tuesday, with potential for difficult driving conditions. Blowing dust is likely on Tuesday as well, mainly in the middle/lower RGV and near Roswell. Wednesday is now looking equally impactful as Tuesday, as an upper level trough swings east across the Intermountain West and the polar jet stream remains oriented from west to east over NM. Another round of orographically forced mountain snow is in the cards for Wednesday afternoon/night as the upper level trough rotates through the Rockies. Model spread with the handling of a trailing trough on Thu/Fri is leading to lower forecast confidence beyond Wednesday, but both days have the potential to bring more windy to very windy conditions. Progressively lower pressure heights from mid to late next week will correlate with cooler temperatures that are forecast to drop below average most areas by Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 420 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

The brisk northwest to north wind will diminish this evening, becoming light in most areas after 03Z. Mid-level clouds are exiting to the east and will continue to diminish in coverage through the night. Patches of MVFR cigs may develop in and around the northern and western high terrain overnight, however confidence remains low. A light south to southwest breeze will develop in most areas tomorrow afternoon as high clouds are advected in from the west.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A critical fire weather pattern will develop next week, with a focus for critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains/highlands and the lower Rio Grande Valley on Tue/Wed/Thu. A warming/drying trend is in play through Monday as an upper level ridge moves overhead and gives way to strengthening southwest flow aloft and a deepening lee side trough. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast by Monday afternoon across eastern NM. The polar jet stream will bring strong westerly winds across the region from Tuesday through at least Thursday, with Pacific moisture and orographic forcing bringing accumulating snow to the western and northern mountains. The focus for critical fire weather conditions from Tuesday through Thursday will be across the eastern plains/highlands and lower RGV and mainly a fine fuels issue. Winds will trend down Fri/Sat, but sufficient wind may remain for more critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 28 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 19 59 23 59 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 24 56 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 17 61 22 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 25 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 20 64 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 24 63 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 32 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 27 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 23 65 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 27 69 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 20 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 31 56 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 26 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 24 54 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 19 48 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 9 56 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 19 58 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 24 64 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 63 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 58 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 27 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 33 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 26 67 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 32 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 25 67 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 30 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 27 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 34 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 32 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 32 68 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 58 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 31 59 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 26 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 64 24 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 28 59 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 28 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 28 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 33 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 32 61 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 24 59 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 22 63 26 69 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 20 67 24 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 64 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 30 64 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 64 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 29 72 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 29 69 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 30 72 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 34 70 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 31 70 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 28 68 31 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 34 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 33 70 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 30 69 35 74 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.