textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1144 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are expected across northern and western NM and there is a moderate to high chance for river flooding.

- There is a low (5-15%) chance that severe thunderstorms will develop across eastern New Mexico Sunday night, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

After a morning of low clouds and patchy fog, breaks of sunshine are expanding this afternoon before a swath of subtropical moisture feeds into NM later tonight. A few widely isolated and sparse showers and thunderstorms will be possible (10-20% chance) over western, central, and south central zones through the early evening, but instability is meager (LI's of 0 to -1 C and SBCAPE of less than 200 J/kg) and large scale ascent will be lacking. These showers and storms would just produce a few hundredths of an inch immediately over very small footprints. Otherwise, temperatures are seasonable, and prevailing breezes are light to moderate (10-20 mph).

Into tonight, weather conditions will turn more unsettled as upstream features come into play. A shortwave trough, currently near 25N 130W, will be moving closer to the upper Baja peninsula with a subtropical jet segment (45-60 kt at 300 mb) preceding it. This will usher in subtropical moisture to southwestern states with PWATs soaring 4 to 6 standard deviations above normal for late Oct/early Nov and IVT (Integrated vapor transport) is showing 7 to 9 standard deviations above normal. Absolute PWAT values will reach 0.8 to 1.2 inch over many sectors of the forecast area, not ground-breaking by late July standards, but certainly by early November climatology. As the shortwave approaches, the gradient aloft will increase with enough subtropical jet dynamics to instill large scale ascent over western to north central NM tonight through Sunday morning. This will lead to widespread light to moderate nocturnal rain through this time with conditions remaining stable enough to support mostly stratiform characteristics. This would tend to keep rainfall rates low tonight through Sunday morning, but the stiffening southwesterlies will produce orographics that would enhance amounts on the Chuskas, Tusas, and other southwest-facing slopes of the Jemez. By Sunday afternoon, the shortwave will be working into western NM with modest destabilization occurring (LI's of 0 to -3 C and SBCAPE rising to 500-750 J/kg over some central areas). The strongest forcing through the afternoon would extend from southwestern NM into north central areas with convection on the eastern leading edge with rainfall rates intensifying as the upstream Pacific Northwest low moves toward NV.

The subtropical shortwave trough will slide toward eastern NM/CO by midnight Sunday night with the next upstream trough trekking along the UT-AZ border. This will spread strongest upward forcing from central NM in the early evening toward the eastern border of NM by the early morning hours Monday. While nighttime stabilization would be occurring Sunday night, enough MUCAPE appears present (500-750 J/kg) as the large scale ascent arrives, and this will lead to the development of a north-south line of convection that will race eastward. Plenty of bulk shear will be readily available, and this could lead to strong to severe cells embedded in this QLCS early Sunday evening (central zones) into late evening and early Monday morning (eastern plains). New batches of rain and high elevation snow would redevelop in northwestern NM from midnight through early Monday morning as the former Pacific Northwest low overtakes the Rockies. A Pacific cold front would accompany, and temperatures aloft would drop significantly as the low/trough move in. This will cause snow levels to drop with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches forecast above a 9,500 to 10,500 range into Monday.

Through the afternoon Monday, the low would push into southwestern KS with wrap-around dynamics keeping the northern zones favored for any rain/snow, and the northwesterlies aloft would be very brisk on the back side. This will pose wind concerns, likely warranting Wind Advisories for central to east central and northeastern NM, perhaps even meeting High Wind criteria (gusts of 58 mph) near Clines Corners through the day Monday. The due northerly flow on the backside of the low would be most persistent in northeastern NM, lasting well into Monday night while remaining areas observe a weakening in speeds and a cessation of precipitation.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Much quieter weather will be on tap for Tuesday, as northwest flow aloft relaxes and remains considerably drier and cooler. High temperatures will remain slightly below normal on Tuesday.

Into Wednesday, a mid latitude shortwave trough is projected to cross northern CA and move into CO, perhaps closing into low per the GFS. Timing differences among deterministic models are still posing uncertainties, but there is fair consensus that associated precipitation would stay favored near and north of the NM-CO border through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Breezes would increase Wednesday during the passage of the wave/low, and daytime temperatures would remain seasonable.

Lighter west northwest flow aloft would follow on Thursday, and then a baggy trough would potentially develop upstream of NM into AZ on Friday. This dry and essentially barotropic upper level feature would slide southeastward, mostly bypassing NM into Saturday while a separate trough/low moves down the central plains. The latter feature could invoke some breezy to windy conditions with a cold front passage on Saturday, but otherwise and elsewhere temperatures look to remain within a few degrees of seasonal averages Thursday- Saturday along with mostly dry conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Conditions will deteriorate through Sunday. Low clouds persist across east central and southeast areas, including KROW, and patchy fog will continue to develop. This will persist through at least the morning hours Sunday. Meanwhile, a large area of rain over AZ will continue to shift eastward into western NM overnight and Sunday. Both vsby and cigs will lower to MVFR or IFR. Mountain obscurations are likely. As a cold front passes from west to east during the afternoon hours, a band of heavier precipitation will develop along it, with thunderstorms becoming more numerous as the line of precipitation reaches the Rio Grande Valley aft 22Z. As the line continues to shift eastward Sunday night, severe weather, including hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 50kt and a few tornadoes will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

After very spotty and minimal shower and thunderstorm activity today, more widespread rainfall will begin to overtake western to north central NM tonight through Sunday morning, providing steady, fuel-soaking rainfall. Most of the forecast area will also undergo excellent humidity recovery through Sunday morning with areas of fog even developing. Rainfall rates will even ramp up over these western to north central zones Sunday afternoon as thunderstorms take shape. Storms will spread into more central and eastern zones during the evening and overnight hours on a less widespread and more scattered basis with lower rainfall amounts. Rain will continue over northern zones into Monday, turning to light snow in high elevations. Winds will turn strong on Monday, feeling much more brisk with gusts of 35 to 55 mph forecast (highest speeds in central highlands to eastern plains). Cooler temperatures and elevated humidity will prevent any critical fire weather concerns from developing Monday, despite the gusty conditions. A more tranquil and drier stretch is forecast to set up for the remainder of the week, although breezes will increase to 15 to 30 mph in several areas on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 49 61 41 55 / 90 100 80 30 Dulce........................... 39 56 33 49 / 80 100 100 60 Cuba............................ 45 57 35 47 / 80 100 90 40 Gallup.......................... 45 61 34 53 / 100 100 100 5 El Morro........................ 45 59 34 51 / 100 100 90 20 Grants.......................... 47 61 36 52 / 100 100 90 20 Quemado......................... 47 60 35 54 / 80 100 90 40 Magdalena....................... 50 64 43 57 / 50 70 80 40 Datil........................... 47 59 39 53 / 80 90 90 40 Reserve......................... 50 62 40 60 / 100 100 90 20 Glenwood........................ 53 65 44 64 / 100 100 90 40 Chama........................... 38 52 31 44 / 80 100 100 80 Los Alamos...................... 46 56 40 50 / 80 100 100 40 Pecos........................... 43 60 35 51 / 50 90 80 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 57 34 48 / 20 100 100 70 Red River....................... 34 51 28 40 / 20 90 80 80 Angel Fire...................... 28 55 24 44 / 20 60 100 80 Taos............................ 38 56 33 50 / 20 90 100 60 Mora............................ 39 59 35 49 / 20 70 80 40 Espanola........................ 46 64 40 56 / 60 100 100 50 Santa Fe........................ 46 59 39 50 / 50 90 100 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 62 39 53 / 60 90 100 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 64 46 55 / 50 70 100 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 66 45 58 / 50 70 90 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 67 45 60 / 50 70 90 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 65 46 57 / 70 80 90 40 Belen........................... 53 72 47 64 / 30 50 90 60 Bernalillo...................... 51 67 45 58 / 70 80 90 50 Bosque Farms.................... 51 70 44 62 / 40 60 90 50 Corrales........................ 52 66 45 58 / 70 80 90 40 Los Lunas....................... 53 70 45 63 / 40 60 90 50 Placitas........................ 51 64 44 54 / 60 80 100 50 Rio Rancho...................... 52 67 46 58 / 70 80 90 40 Socorro......................... 55 74 50 66 / 40 50 80 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 62 41 51 / 60 60 80 70 Tijeras......................... 48 64 42 54 / 50 70 100 70 Edgewood........................ 45 64 40 54 / 50 50 80 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 66 39 57 / 40 30 80 60 Clines Corners.................. 46 62 40 52 / 30 30 80 50 Mountainair..................... 47 64 41 56 / 30 30 80 70 Gran Quivira.................... 47 64 42 57 / 20 30 80 70 Carrizozo....................... 51 70 50 62 / 20 40 90 60 Ruidoso......................... 48 65 45 57 / 20 30 90 40 Capulin......................... 41 61 42 54 / 0 5 90 40 Raton........................... 39 66 40 59 / 0 10 80 30 Springer........................ 39 67 43 60 / 0 10 70 5 Las Vegas....................... 43 61 41 55 / 20 70 80 20 Clayton......................... 47 66 51 62 / 0 5 80 30 Roy............................. 44 63 46 61 / 0 20 80 5 Conchas......................... 51 70 54 68 / 0 10 80 0 Santa Rosa...................... 50 70 52 64 / 5 10 80 10 Tucumcari....................... 51 74 54 71 / 0 5 80 0 Clovis.......................... 52 69 50 68 / 0 5 60 5 Portales........................ 51 73 58 70 / 0 5 60 5 Fort Sumner..................... 52 71 54 68 / 5 10 70 5 Roswell......................... 54 74 55 75 / 0 5 30 0 Picacho......................... 51 74 53 67 / 0 10 50 0 Elk............................. 50 70 50 63 / 10 20 60 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 5 AM MDT Sunday through Monday morning for NMZ201>211.