textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 357 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026 - Slick travel conditions will develop late Friday through Saturday night from the next round of valley rain and high elevation snow over the northern half of New Mexico. There is a low (10-20%) chance for additional minor flooding impacts in northwestern New Mexico.

- Quiet, dry, and mild weather will prevail across northern and central New Mexico through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1211 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Morning fog burned off quickly this morning in the lower Pecos valley, and now just a few fair weather cirrus clouds are noted on satellite imagery, streaming eastward across the northern quadrant of NM. Mostly tranquil conditions are continuing today with weak surface high pressure parked over the eastern NM and west TX border. Temperature readings are running near to slightly (by as many as 10 degrees) above normal. Cirrus clouds will clear out by tonight, and mostly calm to light winds and optimal radiational cooling will resume overnight. This could lead to very localized patchy fog along the lower Pecos (near Roswell and Hagerman), but probabilities for lowest visibilities via the REFS are actually mostly concentrated over the San Juan valley in northwestern NM. Otherwise, no weather impacts are foreseen through Thursday morning.

A mid-tropospheric ridge will push more directly over NM during the day on Thursday, keeping winds aloft light, but pressure heights actually look to reduce by a decameter or two. Once again, temperatures will stay near to as much as 10 degrees above mid November normals with very light surface breezes prevailing. Clear skies and another night of tranquility will lead into Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1211 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

A break from the monotonous, but very pleasant, weather conditions will unfold late Friday into Saturday as a vort lobe separates from a parent low over the northeastern Pacific. PWATs may rise to 0.7 to 0.8 inch over the southern border of our CWA by late Friday afternoon, but this will not be a robust subtropical tap of moisture as the negatively-tilted low crosses the upper Gulf of CA. Instability will also be lacking with LI's hovering around 0 C and minimal CAPE, so precipitation that would favor Catron county and our southwestern zones would mostly consist of primarily showers late Friday afternoon before struggling to spread northeastward into Friday night. Otherwise, temperatures would cool a couple of degrees in response to lowering pressure heights Friday afternoon, and southwestern zones would run a couple degrees below normal due to increasing cloud cover.

The low would weaken into a shortwave as it crosses NM Friday night into Saturday morning with a separate trough having moved inland off of the eastern Pacific and poised to cross near the Four Corners through the day Saturday. This will introduce a distinct new area of precipitation, driven by modest baroclinicity and associated upper dynamics that would favor the northern half of NM. Temperatures would cool 5 to 10 degrees below normal, enough to lower snow levels to 9,000 to 10,000 ft through the day Saturday, setting up the northern mountains for a few inches (1 to 6 inches with localized peaks exceeding) through Saturday night as snow would transition toward the Sangre de Cristos with snow levels lowering closer to 7,500 to 8,500 feet. Rainfall amounts in surrounding northern and central zones would tend to range from a few hundredths of an inch to a half inch Saturday and Saturday night.

The trough will move into TX, briefly closing into a low on Sunday. Some lingering showers may impact the far northeastern corner of NM, but otherwise drier and cool (readings near to 10 degrees below normal) will prevail in the more subsident northwesterly flow aloft. Surface winds are modeled to turn a bit stronger in the plains with a northerly to easterly wind direction on the backside of the departing trough/low.

A transient ridge will then cross NM through early to midday Monday with dry conditions and light to moderate southerly breezes prevailing. Uncertainties begin to arise into next Tuesday and Wednesday as another deeper northeastern Pacific trough moves inland. The deterministic GFS solution and ensemble mean from the GEFS are lagging behind the more progressive ECMWF/ENS with the arrival of this trough/low. The latter solutions would consequently introduce rain and high elevation snow earlier on Tuesday rather than Wednesday as the former solutions indicate. Neither suite of solutions indicates any tap of subtropical moisture, but do bring in a maritime polar airmass with sufficient forcing and ascent for another round of rain and mountain snow for western and central NM zones.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 357 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with light winds. Very low probabilities exist for recurrence of LIFR conditions in low stratus/fog near KROW overnight, but too low to include in TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

No long duration or widespread windy periods are in the forecast through the weekend. Mostly dry conditions will hold with good to excellent humidity recovery tonight and again Thursday night through Friday morning. A few showers will then arrive in southwestern NM late in the day Friday. These showers will struggle to expand northeastward Friday night into Saturday morning, but a trailing disturbance aloft will reintroduce opportunity for rain and mountain snow, mostly to the northern half of NM Saturday into Saturday night. Just a few hundredths of an inch to near a half inch of liquid equivalent precipitation are projected, enough to dampen fuels, but most areas will not likely observe soaking conditions. The exception would be the northern mountains where a few (1-6) inches of fresh snow will fall Saturday and Saturday night. Drier conditions would follow Sunday and Monday with some breezy to windy conditions in the eastern plains Sunday behind the departing weather disturbance. The next opportunity for fuel moisture is slated to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday of next week (mainly in western and central areas of NM) with the potential for some stronger breezes to accompany.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 33 62 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 63 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 33 61 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 27 62 30 59 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 32 60 32 56 / 0 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 30 61 32 58 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 29 63 33 58 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 35 60 38 57 / 0 0 0 20 Datil........................... 32 57 33 54 / 0 0 0 30 Reserve......................... 27 66 32 58 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 32 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 30 Chama........................... 31 58 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 38 60 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 63 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 58 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 20 55 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 14 59 16 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 61 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 62 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 31 65 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 36 61 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 34 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 66 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 36 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 36 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 38 66 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 35 65 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 37 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 66 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 37 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 66 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 38 65 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 38 66 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 68 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 60 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 33 63 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 64 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 61 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 40 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 35 60 36 60 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 34 60 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 28 65 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 66 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 63 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 67 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 36 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 36 68 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 70 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 39 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 37 69 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 67 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 39 66 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 34 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.