textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Increasing risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM this weekend.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico through the 7 day period due to high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms threatening lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages through the 7 day period.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Synoptic scale view shows the monsoon high centered squarely over west-central NM early this morning, with a weak MCS like feature still generating showers and thunderstorms over the OK/TX Panhandles stretching westward into northeastern NM. Abundant monsoonal moisture lingers across the state, evident by Td's in the 50s to low 60s all across NM. PWs in the 1.00" to 1.25" range also lay across a majority of central and western NM with higher values upwards of 1.40" to 1.50" closer to the TX border. So concerning today's afternoon thunderstorm potential, we'll go west to east across the state. With the proximity of the center of the monsoon high right along the central portion of the NM/AZ border, afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will favor short lifespans with small wetting footprints. In other words, storms will be slow movers, not lasting long, but still threatening to dump what rain they do have in one localized area. Given the wet antecedent ground conditions in this part of the state, there remains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding where these isolated pockets of heavier rain fall in the wrong already soaked areas. Thunderstorms developing along the central mountain chain, including over the HPCC burn scar in the Sangre de Cristo's and Ruidoso area burn scars in the Sacramento's, will be slightly longer lived. Drier ground conditions in the area of the HPCC burn scar, and likely pop-corn like convective behavior of storms near Ruidoso today will help in reducing the risk of burn scar flash flooding there today enough to not warrant a Flood Watch issuance at this time. All told for these three areas of flash flooding concern, while a Flood Watch is not issued, the risk is still non-zero. Otherwise, Friday features hot temperatures for southeastern NM, and Heat Advisory is in effect for the Chaves County Plains (Roswell) where forecast highs are near or just above 105F.

Further east along the NM/TX border, numerical model guidance continues to advertise CI along a surface convergent boundary this afternoon. In particular, the NAM12 and GFS maintain in the latest runs an evolution of this convective activity into a MCV tonight into Saturday morning. This will act to favor continued shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of east-central NM and Caprock well into tonight. The remnants of this MCV feature looks to continue to spin over east-central NM while the centroid of the monsoon high migrates northward over CO. This will introduce a favorable scenario for mid to upper level atmospheric stretching over central and west-central NM Saturday afternoon, yielding scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. With PWs climbing into the 1.25" to 1.40" range in this area, conditions will favor thunderstorms being very efficient rain producers in this area. WPC currently has a slight risk area of excessive rainfall for this setup over west-central NM Saturday afternoon. HiRes CAM solutions of the HREF/RRFS currently do not depict overly concerning QPF amounts (modeled rainfall amounts) over west-central NM, which seem to disagree with the numerical model mesoscale setup. This is lowering forecast confidence some, but the antecedent ground conditions should keep an elevated level of flash flood concern Saturday across west-central NM. Elsewhere, robust thunderstorm development near the Ruidoso area burn scars will also increase the risk burn scar flash flooding there Saturday as well.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Sunday sees the remnants of the aforementioned MCV/disturbance still over west-central NM, likely enhancing afternoon thunderstorm activity there again another day. Another round of flash flooding impacts from slow moving and rain efficient storms will need to be watched in this area again Sunday afternoon. Lesser storm coverage will be favored further east along and east of the central mountain chain where highs climb back into the low 100s.

Thereafter, next week will feature a dominant monsoon high loitering over the Four Corners region or just east of there. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before moving westward to southwestward over surrounding lower elevations will be the rule each day. Moderate to high heat risk will remain over the lower elevations of central and eastern NM where highs climb into the upper 90s to low 100s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There are a few lingering sporadic showers and thunderstorms this hour, expected to slowly clear thru the next few hours heading into Friday morning. There's a low chance for fog development over portions of the forecast area tonight with satellite imagery showing more clearing skies relative to recent nights. AMDs may be necessary for this, but it is a low enough chance to not include in any of the TAFs. Friday sees another round of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain, meandering over surrounding lower elevations late afternoon and evening. Localized IFR/MVFR conditions will accompany any of the stronger storms, and PROB30s are included to account for this. Convective activity lingers well into Friday evening toward the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days with the monsoon high over the region. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity will continue to favor development over the high terrain before moving over surrounding lower elevations. Relatively shorter lived thunderstorms today will give way to longer lived and more rain efficient producing storms this weekend, threatening flash flooding in areas of central and western NM. Fair to good recoveries will be featured each morning, while highs climb into the upper 90s to low 100s for lower elevation areas each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 68 97 68 / 10 20 10 20 Dulce........................... 94 56 94 55 / 20 30 50 20 Cuba............................ 90 61 90 61 / 20 30 40 30 Gallup.......................... 90 61 91 59 / 30 20 30 30 El Morro........................ 86 60 87 59 / 40 30 70 50 Grants.......................... 90 63 91 61 / 30 20 40 40 Quemado......................... 87 62 88 59 / 30 30 70 60 Magdalena....................... 90 67 89 66 / 50 50 60 50 Datil........................... 86 62 86 61 / 60 50 80 50 Reserve......................... 95 62 94 60 / 30 30 80 50 Glenwood........................ 99 66 98 63 / 20 30 70 60 Chama........................... 85 54 85 54 / 70 30 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 88 66 88 66 / 50 30 50 30 Pecos........................... 90 60 88 59 / 70 40 70 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 58 86 60 / 60 20 60 20 Red River....................... 76 50 77 52 / 70 20 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 81 47 82 49 / 80 40 70 20 Taos............................ 88 58 89 58 / 50 30 60 20 Mora............................ 86 57 85 57 / 70 40 70 30 Espanola........................ 95 67 95 66 / 30 30 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 90 64 89 65 / 50 40 70 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 64 92 63 / 30 30 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 71 96 70 / 20 40 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 70 96 68 / 20 40 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 69 99 67 / 20 30 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 71 97 70 / 20 30 40 40 Belen........................... 99 69 98 67 / 20 30 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 100 69 98 69 / 20 40 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 99 67 97 65 / 20 30 30 40 Corrales........................ 100 70 99 69 / 20 30 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 99 68 97 67 / 20 30 30 40 Placitas........................ 95 68 94 69 / 20 40 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 99 70 98 69 / 20 30 40 40 Socorro......................... 102 74 101 72 / 30 30 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 63 90 64 / 40 50 70 40 Tijeras......................... 92 64 91 64 / 30 50 60 40 Edgewood........................ 94 61 92 60 / 50 50 70 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 59 93 57 / 40 40 70 50 Clines Corners.................. 90 60 88 59 / 50 40 70 40 Mountainair..................... 94 62 92 60 / 50 50 70 50 Gran Quivira.................... 92 62 90 62 / 40 50 60 50 Carrizozo....................... 96 69 93 67 / 20 40 50 40 Ruidoso......................... 89 64 86 63 / 50 30 70 30 Capulin......................... 86 58 88 60 / 40 30 30 10 Raton........................... 91 58 92 58 / 50 30 30 10 Springer........................ 93 59 93 60 / 40 40 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 90 60 88 59 / 60 40 60 40 Clayton......................... 95 67 97 69 / 20 20 10 10 Roy............................. 91 63 91 64 / 50 30 30 20 Conchas......................... 100 69 99 68 / 30 50 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 97 67 94 66 / 30 60 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 102 70 100 71 / 30 40 20 30 Clovis.......................... 103 69 97 69 / 30 50 20 10 Portales........................ 104 70 98 70 / 30 50 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 102 70 98 70 / 20 40 20 20 Roswell......................... 106 74 100 73 / 20 30 10 5 Picacho......................... 100 68 95 67 / 30 20 30 10 Elk............................. 97 66 93 64 / 30 10 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.