textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Despite a cold front today across eastern New Mexico, above normal temperatures remain in store through at least Thursday areawide.

- A pattern change to cooler, windy, and unsettled conditions is in store for late Friday through early Saturday. Rain and mountain snow will become fairly widespread with a few inches of snow forecast for the northern mountains of New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 111 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

The upper level feature of interest in the short term continues to be a cut-off low over the Baja peninsula. This low is finally starting to move east northeastward and will be trekking across the Sonora and Chihuahuan deserts today before reaching near the Big Bend area by late day. This track would represent what the ECMWF was advertising 24 hours ago with most of the associated precipitation staying south of the forecast area. The POPs have consequently been reduced a bit to 10 to 20% over the farthest southeastern extent of the forecast area (southern Lincoln, Chaves, and Roosevelt counties) with minimal QPF. At the surface, a cold front has begun entering the eastern plains of NM with some considerable temperature drops projected for today with daytime highs slated to run 15 to 20 degrees below yesterday's readings. Northerly winds will gust to 20 to perhaps 30 mph along and behind the front in the plains this morning through the early afternoon, but latest model guidance is not as zealous about pushing the boundary beyond the central mountain chain. A few areas downwind (west) of gaps and canyons will see east southeast winds sneak in, but not much in the way of cold air advection or strong gusts are anticipated.

The remnants of the cut-off low will weaken and move into the ArkLaTex region tonight while surface winds slacken and generally veer in direction. Cirrus clouds will start to increase from the west this evening and overnight with moist west southwesterly flow aloft increasing slightly through Wednesday. A lee-side surface trough will once again take residence over eastern CO and northeastern NM by Wednesday afternoon with breezy southwest winds ensuing within this area. Ensemble situational awareness tables still indicate that PWATs will be on the rise Wednesday due to the flow aloft feeding in Pacific moisture (PWATs still shown to reach 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal in NM). Any notable perturbations in this moist west southwest flow will largely trek north of the Four Corners, but orographics will be able to squeeze out a few light showers, mainly over the north central to western high terrain where mid level moisture will be available. Temperatures in some of these north central to western zones will run a degree or three below today's highs, but eastern zones will be the beneficiaries of compressional warming from downsloping breezes with highs climbing another 5 to 10 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 111 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

A similar regime persists into Thursday with west southwesterly flow aloft while several subtle small scale perturbations cross north of the Four Corners. The PWATs are modeled to reduce slightly on Thursday with a few more breaks in the mid level cloud cover, and so this lowers confidence in any appreciable shower activity. POPs remain rather low with 20 to 30% mostly confined across the north central mountains with light QPF amounts resulting from weak orographics. Rising temperatures will also continue in the eastern plains with more downsloping breezes while western zones stay close to a persistence forecast.

By late Thursday an upper low will be just offshore of southern CA with another shortwave trough moving in from the northwest and rounding the base of the CA low. On Friday they are modeled to phase together as a broader low that will move inland over the southwestern states. A clear-cut subtropical tap of moisture is not modeled on latest deterministic runs, but the low will host enough baroclinicity and maritime influence to generate rain and mountain snow on a synoptic scale, especially Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Colder temperatures will arrive with the Pacific front, but prior to this snow levels would remain relatively high, hovering between 7,500 to 8,500 ft Friday before falling to 6,000 to 7,000 ft overnight. Fairly widespread measurable precipitation is modeled with 0.1 to 0.3 inches of liquid equivalent being common while the northern mountains stack up higher amounts. With 700 mb temperatures starting out between 0 to -3 C and only dropping to -2 to -4 C, the snow-to-liquid ratios will be quite low for mid February with only the mountains mustering 10-to-1 or greater ratios. This will equate to just a few inches of snow over the northern mountains, likely in a 3 to 8 inch range with isolated peaks above 10,000 ft surpassing this. The low will move toward the Red River valley of OK-TX by noon Saturday with precipitation quickly waning from west to east shortly after this.

A ridge of high pressure will then build in early Sunday with pressure heights and temperatures rising together while dry conditions prevail. Deep pressure falls will be taking place upstream over the Pacific Northwest states on Monday, and stronger southwesterlies will start feeding into NM Monday through Tuesday. Deterministic models and ensembles all have indications that the flow would start to moisten top-down during this time, introducing low chances for light precipitation in western to north central zones Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR expected all terminals the next 24 hrs. A backdoor cold front surging south thru eastern NM will enter northeast NM around 12am MST and continue moving southwest to the central mt chain and the southeast plains thru sunrise. Northerly gusts of 15 to 25kt will be common for a few hours behind the front over eastern NM. Gap winds in the RGV have trended weaker Tuesday morning. Mid and high level cigs will continue streaming northward tonight thru Tuesday with even lower precip chances than previous forecasts (5-15%) for southeast NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

The cut-off low that has spent a long vacation over the Baja, but finally gets set into motion today, dragging rain into the Mexican deserts of Sonora and Chihuahua. Unfortunately, this rain will largely pass south of the ABQ Fire Weather area. Cooler temperatures are in store today, thanks to a backdoor front that is currently entering eastern NM. These cooler temperatures will cause humidity to rise some, and despite some breezy conditions along and behind the front, no critical fire weather concerns are foreseen today. Breezy winds will veer more southwesterly on Wednesday and Thursday with humidity trending up (especially on Wednesday), and light, inconsequential shower activity will also develop over western to north central NM both days. Look for temperatures to rebound in eastern NM through Thursday, reaching 10 to nearly 20 degrees above climatology for mid February. A pair of upstream Pacific disturbances look to merge and target NM late Friday into early Saturday, bringing widespread wetting rain and mountain snow along with cooler temperatures and higher humidity. Conditions dry out late Saturday into Sunday with temperatures climbing above normal again. Indications among forecast models and ensembles are that breezy to windy conditions will return Monday into Tuesday of next week, which may be a time frame of interest, especially for eastern NM where humidity could stay within critically low ranges.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 38 60 36 / 0 20 40 30 Dulce........................... 61 27 56 30 / 0 10 70 60 Cuba............................ 59 32 57 33 / 0 5 40 40 Gallup.......................... 61 30 59 28 / 0 5 20 10 El Morro........................ 59 33 59 31 / 0 5 20 20 Grants.......................... 64 29 62 29 / 0 0 10 20 Quemado......................... 62 33 61 32 / 0 0 10 5 Magdalena....................... 61 39 62 40 / 5 5 5 5 Datil........................... 60 34 59 34 / 0 5 0 5 Reserve......................... 68 34 65 32 / 5 0 10 0 Glenwood........................ 72 38 70 37 / 5 0 10 5 Chama........................... 54 25 49 28 / 0 5 50 50 Los Alamos...................... 56 35 56 37 / 0 5 20 30 Pecos........................... 56 29 58 34 / 0 0 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 30 53 33 / 0 0 10 20 Red River....................... 48 22 50 26 / 0 0 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 52 20 52 27 / 0 0 10 20 Taos............................ 59 26 57 32 / 0 0 10 20 Mora............................ 56 27 59 32 / 0 0 5 10 Espanola........................ 64 30 64 35 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 58 34 57 34 / 0 5 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 32 60 36 / 0 5 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 40 63 40 / 0 5 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 40 65 42 / 0 5 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 38 67 41 / 0 5 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 38 65 41 / 0 5 5 20 Belen........................... 66 36 67 39 / 0 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 65 37 65 41 / 0 5 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 67 35 67 39 / 0 5 5 20 Corrales........................ 66 37 66 41 / 0 5 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 66 37 67 40 / 0 5 5 10 Placitas........................ 62 37 62 39 / 0 5 10 30 Rio Rancho...................... 65 37 64 41 / 0 5 10 20 Socorro......................... 68 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 35 58 37 / 0 5 10 30 Tijeras......................... 60 33 61 38 / 0 5 10 30 Edgewood........................ 60 29 63 36 / 0 5 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 28 64 32 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 54 31 58 36 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 61 34 62 37 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 35 62 38 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 65 40 64 43 / 5 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 57 37 60 41 / 10 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 50 27 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 55 23 62 30 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 57 24 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 28 61 35 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 52 30 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 54 28 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 31 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 31 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 30 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 60 32 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 62 31 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 62 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 66 38 64 40 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 37 66 41 / 5 5 0 0 Elk............................. 65 35 68 39 / 10 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.