textproduct: Albuquerque
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 509 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
- Widespread record high temperatures into the weekend posing heat-related illness for those most sensitive to heat. Heat Risk peaks Saturday in east-central and southeast NM.
- Exceptionally dry conditions prevail through the weekend. There is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
- A backdoor cold front arrives in eastern NM Sunday, lowering high temperatures. Gusty east canyon winds likely to push through the central mountain chain Sunday night.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
It was a cool morning around much of the area, but temperatures have rapidly warmed up (already 50+ degrees in some areas). The 500mb height from the 18Z sounding at KABQ was 595mb, which is 4mb more than the previous record of 591mb (set yesterday). This is quite exceptional and has translated to exceptionally warm temperatures at the sfc as well. Daily and monthly record highs are on tap to be broken today in just about every corner of New Mexico. High temperatures Friday will be very close to today's highs as the ridge weakens slightly. Many more records are likely to fall tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
The record-setting ridge will begin to flatten this weekend, creating light breezes around central and northern New Mexico. Despite lower 500mb heights, the downsloping breeze will likely translate to even warmer temperatures in lower elevation locations such as the Rio Grande Valley and the Eastern Plains. As a result, the probability of reaching at least 90F is 99%+ in all of the Eastern Plains Saturday afternoon, with a 10-40% chance of reaching 100F. Saturday will be Albuquerque's best chance to reach 90F, with a 80% chance at the Sunport and even higher probs lower in the valley. Albuquerque's record first 90 degree day is May 3rd so 90- degree weather in March would be truly extraordinary. Temperatures trend a tad lower Sunday, but there will still be record-breaking heat for much of the area. Temperatures finally begin to trend lower on Monday behind a potent and gusty backdoor front. The front will also bring higher dewpoints with it and this density gradient should help to drive some gusty east winds through the gaps of the central mountain chain Sunday night. Even in the wake of the front, temperatures will threaten records in central and western NM.
The heat turns up again early to mid-next week as highs rise over 20 degrees above normal yet again. There are signals in the ensemble data that the ridge will begin to break down late next week, dropping temperatures slightly. However, probabilities are very high for the continuation of the seasonably warm weather persisting through the end of March.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Record heat will likely result in higher density altitude readings than normal for mid to late March.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
The record-setting ridge will begin to flatten this weekend, creating light breezes around central and northern New Mexico. Despite lower 500mb heights, the downsloping breeze will likely translate to even warmer temperatures in lower elevation locations such as the Rio Grande Valley and the Eastern Plains. As a result, the probability of reaching at least 90F is 99%+ in all of the Eastern Plains Saturday afternoon, with a 10-40% chance of reaching 100F. Saturday will be Albuquerque's best chance to reach 90F, with a 80% chance at the Sunport and even higher probs lower in the valley. Albuquerque's record first 90 degree day is May 3rd so 90- degree weather in March would be truly extraordinary. Temperatures trend a tad lower Sunday, but there will still be record-breaking heat for much of the area. Temperatures finally begin to trend lower on Monday behind a potent and gusty backdoor front. The front will also bring higher dewpoints with it and this density gradient should help to drive some gusty east winds through the gaps of the central mountain chain Sunday night. Even in the wake of the front, temperatures will threaten records in central and western NM.
The heat turns up again early to mid-next week as highs rise over 20 degrees above normal yet again. There are signals in the ensemble data that the ridge will begin to break down late next week, dropping temperatures slightly. However, probabilities are very high for the continuation of the seasonably warm weather persisting through the end of March.
CLIMATE
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
The all-time March record high (85F) for Albuquerque was tied yesterday and is expected to be broken this afternoon and likely again Friday and Saturday. The best chance to reach 90F in Albuquerque is Saturday afternoon (~80% chance). Albuquerque has never reached 90F during the months of March or April.
Roswell will be near the daily record high today and Friday and will very likely break a record high on Saturday. The current forecast high for Roswell on Saturday is 96F, which would break the March record of 95F. There is even a 20-40% chance that Roswell reaches 100F on Saturday, which would be the earliest ever 100-degree day by over 1 month.
Clayton is unlikely to break a record high today, however we are forecasting record highs on Friday and Saturday. The current forecast high for Saturday is 93F, which would break the previous March record of 92.
All locations in central and northern New Mexico will at least threaten daily record highs each day through Saturday. Many areas will break March record highs and by several degrees in some cases.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 39 84 39 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 32 83 31 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 38 82 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 84 30 88 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 82 38 85 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 85 33 88 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 39 83 40 86 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 82 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 37 89 37 88 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 40 94 41 91 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 33 77 33 77 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 49 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 82 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 78 37 80 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 35 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 76 19 77 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 31 83 32 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 42 80 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 42 88 42 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 84 42 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 89 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 91 47 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 89 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 89 42 93 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 89 48 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 41 90 41 93 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 90 47 92 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 40 89 40 93 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 52 92 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 85 45 87 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 87 33 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 82 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 85 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 84 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 52 88 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 79 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 83 34 88 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 36 84 35 91 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 82 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 86 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 42 84 44 90 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 92 44 98 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 45 88 44 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 90 44 97 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 92 50 97 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 46 94 47 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 44 93 44 97 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 46 92 47 96 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 90 50 94 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 89 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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