textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely each day through Monday, with coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe in central and eastern New Mexico each afternoon.

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars each day through Monday. There is a low risk of off scar flash flooding in eastern New Mexico Saturday through Monday.

- Drier and hotter weather returns around the middle of next week. Critical fire weather conditions may develop in northwest New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday (moderate confidence).

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High pressure aloft is sprawling across the southern ConUS and Mexico with the flow aloft remaining westerly in northern NM. Meanwhile, the low level flow in the plains has begun to veer east southeast behind yesterday and last nights front. Although the westerly winds aloft are weaker than previous days (20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), this will add to directional/speed shear through the evening, especially in northeastern NM where SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather outlined. After some close calls earlier around the Ruidoso burn scars, convection is projected to keep initiating north northeastward over the central and eventually northeastern highlands before rolling eastward into the plains in the late afternoon and evening. Most CAM's indicate that convection will die off by midnight with a couple of members retaining a cell or two in the northeastern plains through the early morning hours.

The flow aloft will not alter or change all that much into Saturday, but the orientation of a western centroid of the upper high over Mexico and an inverted trough over the eastern Pacific will steer deeper subtropical moisture into the Gulf of CA and southern AZ. In NM, the eastern zones will retain deeper moisture with PWATs of 1.0 to 1.2 inches with more modest amounts of 0.6 to 0.8 inch in most remaining NM zones, but higher values will be pooling southwest of the Mogollon Rim into AZ. Overall, the convection is modeled to be a bit more subdued on Saturday, initiating east of the central mountain chain and just slightly east of todays initiation areas. However, sparse coverage does look to develop to the west of the central mountain chain and toward the southwestern NM mountains with the slight increase in moisture, and western areas will also run a couple degrees cooler Saturday afternoon, but still largely in the 90's. Any storms west of the central mountain chain would be higher-based and less efficient at producing measurable rainfall. Storms in northeastern NM will again have the potential to turn strong to severe with hail and damaging winds on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Into Sunday the flow aloft turns increasingly northwesterly over NM while a strong shortwave trough dives into the central plains. A few smaller scale embedded perturbations also look to ride the northwest flow into NM while another backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast at the surface early Sunday morning. Moisture advection will ensue into eastern NM, setting the stage for increased storms via surface moisture convergence and increasing directional shear profiles anywhere along and east of the Rio Grande valley. Areas to the west would continue to be favored for more sparse, drier storms.

Surface high pressure will continue building southward down the plains on Monday with winds veering more southerly in the plains. This will keep moisture entrenched over the eastern half of the state while the steady northwesterlies aloft start to eat at the moisture in far western zones. Also, another shortwave perturbation will slide down in this flow aloft, potentially aiding additional convective initiation in central to eastern zones.

The drying from the northwesterlies aloft will be more pronounced going into Tuesday, squelching probabilities for precipitation through Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to quickly escalate, and by Wednesday readings will be running 5 to 12 degrees above normal with heat impacts returning for many zones as we reach into the 90's and 100's again. The northwest flow aloft would also strengthen some (15 to 30 kt at 700 mb), and this would cause stronger momentum to mix down for breezy to windy conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday from northwestern to central zones. Another backdoor front returns Wednesday night, recharging the low layer moisture into Thursday and reintroducing POPs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Low clouds in eastern New Mexico have mostly burned off with VFR conditions prevailing. Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Sacramento mountains of south central New Mexico, and these will expand to the central highlands through the mid afternoon, and then to the northeast highlands by the late afternoon with cells moving east northeastward into the plains through the evening. Storms in these areas will be prone to heavy downpours, frequent lightning, hail, and gusty downburst winds. Between the central mountain chain and Continental Divide of New Mexico, storms will struggle to develop, but a few sparse ones will manage, producing little rainfall, but very gusty downburst winds through early evening. Prevailing winds will be light to moderate outside of showers and thunderstorms. Storms should mostly end by midnight with a lone cell or two possibly surviving in the northeastern plains. Storms will be slightly more subdued in the eastern half of New Mexico on Saturday with the drier, weaker storms in central areas expanding toward the Arizona border.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A backdoor front spilled into the Rio Grande valley and reached beyond the Continental Divide last evening, and the moisture accompanying the front has been significant, leading to a notable increase in thunderstorm development. While the best prospects for wetting rain are highest in eastern NM zones, modest moisture gains between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain will continue to lead to the development of storms, just of a drier variety that may include a few dry thunderstorms posing a risk of new lightning ignitions, both today and Saturday. Incoming disturbances aloft and another backdoor front will help enhance storm development Sunday and, to a lesser degree, on Monday. Similar trends will follow with wetter storms east of the central mountain chain and drier, gustier storms to the west. Prevailing wind concerns during this time frame would be mostly driven by the backdoor fronts while thunderstorm outflows, of course, produce brief and localized gusts.

Much drier air will arrive with the northwest flow aloft on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this will shut down storm chances while re-introducing breezy to windy conditions, particularly from the Four Corners down into central, interior NM. Temperatures will also be spiking in this drier regime, so a few hours of marginal or critical fire weather would pose concerns both afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday. The moist backdoor front arriving Wednesday night into Thursday should provide at least partial, if not fairly widespread, relief from the heat and dryness.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 93 61 90 / 0 5 10 20 Dulce........................... 49 88 50 82 / 0 5 10 70 Cuba............................ 56 87 56 80 / 10 10 10 60 Gallup.......................... 55 87 51 86 / 5 20 20 40 El Morro........................ 55 83 53 82 / 10 20 20 30 Grants.......................... 56 88 54 84 / 10 20 20 50 Quemado......................... 58 84 55 84 / 0 30 20 30 Magdalena....................... 63 88 62 81 / 10 30 20 60 Datil........................... 60 84 57 81 / 10 40 20 50 Reserve......................... 54 91 51 90 / 5 40 20 30 Glenwood........................ 57 96 55 96 / 0 20 20 20 Chama........................... 47 81 47 74 / 5 10 20 70 Los Alamos...................... 62 84 60 75 / 20 20 10 70 Pecos........................... 54 88 53 74 / 30 20 20 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 82 51 73 / 20 40 30 80 Red River....................... 42 76 43 66 / 20 40 40 80 Angel Fire...................... 33 79 42 68 / 20 30 40 80 Taos............................ 53 85 53 76 / 20 20 20 80 Mora............................ 51 83 50 67 / 40 30 50 80 Espanola........................ 58 91 58 82 / 20 20 10 80 Santa Fe........................ 59 88 60 78 / 30 20 10 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 92 58 82 / 20 20 10 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 66 85 / 10 20 10 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 95 67 86 / 10 20 10 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 97 60 88 / 10 20 10 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 96 65 86 / 10 20 10 60 Belen........................... 64 97 63 89 / 10 20 10 40 Bernalillo...................... 63 96 64 87 / 10 20 10 60 Bosque Farms.................... 60 96 59 87 / 10 20 10 50 Corrales........................ 64 97 64 87 / 10 20 10 60 Los Lunas....................... 61 96 61 87 / 10 20 10 50 Placitas........................ 65 92 64 83 / 20 20 10 60 Rio Rancho...................... 65 95 65 85 / 10 20 10 60 Socorro......................... 69 97 68 90 / 10 20 20 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 88 59 78 / 20 20 10 60 Tijeras......................... 61 90 60 80 / 10 20 10 60 Edgewood........................ 58 90 58 77 / 20 20 10 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 92 55 78 / 20 20 10 50 Clines Corners.................. 56 87 54 70 / 20 20 20 40 Mountainair..................... 58 91 57 78 / 10 20 10 40 Gran Quivira.................... 58 90 57 77 / 10 20 10 40 Carrizozo....................... 63 93 63 84 / 10 20 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 54 86 54 74 / 20 40 20 70 Capulin......................... 51 84 47 63 / 30 30 70 50 Raton........................... 50 88 51 68 / 20 30 60 50 Springer........................ 53 89 53 69 / 40 30 60 50 Las Vegas....................... 55 87 52 67 / 40 30 30 50 Clayton......................... 62 92 53 67 / 50 40 70 30 Roy............................. 57 89 52 66 / 60 40 50 30 Conchas......................... 62 96 58 72 / 50 50 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 61 94 57 71 / 30 40 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 65 97 59 72 / 50 50 60 40 Clovis.......................... 65 95 61 71 / 20 10 50 40 Portales........................ 66 97 61 75 / 20 10 50 40 Fort Sumner..................... 64 95 60 74 / 30 30 40 30 Roswell......................... 67 98 66 82 / 30 20 20 50 Picacho......................... 60 93 60 75 / 20 60 30 50 Elk............................. 58 90 58 76 / 30 60 30 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.