textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026 - Areas of light rain and/or fog will lower visibility this morning over parts of eastern NM, with a 30 percent chance of patchy fog from around Taos to Chama and Dulce as well.

- Thunderstorms will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, and brief heavy downpours along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. Some storms on the eastern plains may turn severe on Friday by producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday Night) Issued at 1258 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

A mesoscale area of low pressure will continue to lift slowly northward along the eastern NM border Wednesday, then exit slowly northward along the eastern CO border Wednesday night. Easterly and southeasterly upslope flow over northeast NM will enable light to moderate rain to continue along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will then track southeastward from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, central highlands, and Capitan Mountains across the eastern plains; except for isolated activity south of I-40.

A cutoff upper level low pressure system that settles over central CA today will remain stalled there through Thursday, then lift gradually northeastward Thursday night and Friday, finally reaching UT Friday night. The upper low will induce easterly upslope flow over NM Wednesday night producing areas of low clouds and fog east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains. A patchier episode of low clouds and fog looks to return to eastern areas Thursday night, when easterly upslope flow will probably decrease as the upper low exits northeastward from CA. With low-level moisture in place and brisk south and southwest flow aloft over NM, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across north central NM, along the central mountain chain, and across the eastern plains both Thursday afternoon/night and Friday afternoon/night. Shear and instability profiles look sufficient for a few strong storms across the east Thursday. The flow aloft will then strengthen on Friday, while a shortwave trough crosses the state in southwest flow aloft, resulting in an uptick in storm severity across the east.

Otherwise, temperatures will trend warmer most places Wednesday, then areawide on Thursday, when high temperatures will vary from 4 degrees above 30-year averages over the northwest plateau to as much as 7 degrees below the averages on the eastern plains. High temperatures will probably cool a few degrees in many places Friday as that shortwave trough passes overhead.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1258 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Friday night through Saturday night the upper low over UT will lift northeastward across WY and eastern MT, while steering dry air over NM. With mostly clear skies overhead, high temperatures will likely trend a few to several degrees warmer in many locations Saturday afternoon. Sunday through Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will gradually build over NM as a low pressure system takes shape off the southern CA coast. Sunday, a moist return flow of Gulf moisture will begin to develop in the low levels with a slight chance for some spotty showers and thunderstorms from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward and on the far eastern plains. The low level return flow will probably become adequate by Monday for scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain. A moist backdoor cold front may then enhance thunderstorms further on Tuesday as the rich return flow of Gulf moisture pushes over western NM with a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms across all of the forecast area except the Four Corners, and a 60% chance across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast highlands. High temperatures should reach near to several degrees above 1991-2020 averages on Sunday and Monday, before falling below average across the east on Tuesday with the backdoor cold front.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas of MVFR and localized IFR conditions in low clouds and fog will continue across the east central and southeast plains until mid morning. Meanwhile, a broad area of light rain will continue to produce low VFR and MVFR conditions, as well as mountain obscurations in easterly upslope flow, from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward. In the afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move southeastward across northeast and east central areas at speeds around 15-30 mph. Isolated cells will also cross the east central and southeast plains along and south of I-40. West of the central mountain chain, south and southwest winds will become gusty this afternoon with the strongest gusts reaching around 30 KT near Socorro, Gallup, and Zuni until sunset. Tonight, a gusty east wind will develop below canyons opening into the central valley from the east with the strongest gusts reaching around 35 KT at the Albuquerque International Sunport.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

ERCs remain above the 50th percentile west of the central mountain chain, and around the 70th percentile along NM's parched western border. Minimum humidities west of the central mountain chain will plummet near and below 15 percent every day for the next seven days, and over eastern areas as well Saturday and Sunday. South and southwest winds will become gusty west of the central mountain chain this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, then breezy in spots Friday afternoon when gusts up to 40 mph will produce locally critical fire weather conditions around Gran Quivira and Gallup. Otherwise, winds don't look to be much of a concern, except for erratic thunderstorm outflow with timing described in previous sections of this Forecast Discussion. In addition, some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are likely from Albuquerque northward to the CO border both Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 85 50 88 52 / 0 0 10 5 Dulce........................... 80 39 83 43 / 0 0 5 10 Cuba............................ 76 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 79 39 82 41 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 77 44 79 45 / 0 0 10 5 Grants.......................... 80 41 82 45 / 0 0 10 5 Quemado......................... 77 44 80 46 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 77 51 79 54 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 75 46 77 49 / 0 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 81 42 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 38 76 41 / 0 0 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 74 52 78 55 / 0 0 10 20 Pecos........................... 75 44 78 47 / 10 5 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 45 76 49 / 10 5 10 10 Red River....................... 64 37 69 38 / 20 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 67 34 72 31 / 30 20 30 30 Taos............................ 75 41 80 46 / 5 0 5 20 Mora............................ 70 43 75 47 / 50 10 50 30 Espanola........................ 82 49 86 51 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 76 51 80 53 / 5 0 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 49 84 51 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 57 86 59 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 56 87 58 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 50 89 52 / 0 0 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 54 87 57 / 0 0 10 10 Belen........................... 85 49 89 54 / 0 0 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 84 54 88 56 / 0 0 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 85 48 88 51 / 0 0 10 10 Corrales........................ 85 54 89 56 / 0 0 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 85 49 88 53 / 0 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 80 55 84 57 / 0 5 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 84 53 87 56 / 0 0 20 10 Socorro......................... 87 55 91 59 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 51 80 54 / 0 10 20 20 Tijeras......................... 79 50 81 53 / 0 5 20 20 Edgewood........................ 80 47 82 51 / 5 5 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 43 83 47 / 5 0 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 75 46 77 50 / 20 10 30 30 Mountainair..................... 79 46 82 50 / 0 0 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 77 48 81 51 / 0 0 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 80 53 84 57 / 0 0 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 74 48 76 50 / 10 5 60 30 Capulin......................... 61 41 72 45 / 80 40 30 20 Raton........................... 68 43 77 47 / 60 40 20 30 Springer........................ 70 44 79 48 / 60 40 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 72 45 75 49 / 30 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 48 77 51 / 80 50 20 20 Roy............................. 69 46 76 51 / 40 40 10 20 Conchas......................... 78 50 83 54 / 20 20 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 76 49 80 53 / 20 20 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 79 51 85 56 / 20 20 10 20 Clovis.......................... 81 53 85 56 / 20 20 10 20 Portales........................ 82 52 86 57 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 80 52 84 55 / 20 20 5 20 Roswell......................... 84 57 87 60 / 10 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 80 52 82 56 / 20 10 20 30 Elk............................. 81 49 82 54 / 10 10 40 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.