textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue to produce a risk of rapid fire spread east of the central mountain chain until 8 PM MDT this evening, then again from Clines Corners to Santa Rosa on Friday afternoon and early evening.

- A damaging wind event looks increasingly likely this weekend with many locations experiencing 50 mph west, northwest, and north wind gusts late Saturday through Sunday, except for gusts potentially well over 60 mph in the mountains, along east slopes, and across the eastern plains.

- Critical fire weather conditions will become more widespread and extreme this weekend with a high risk of rapid fire spread.

- A powerful high pressure system will move over the region going into the middle of next week, producing a hazardous heatwave that far surpasses daily high temperatures in many locations.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Wind speeds will weaken with sunset this evening. Weaker but still gusty northwest flow aloft is expected Friday with high temperatures around 7-17 degrees above 1991-2020 averages and strong atmospheric mixing.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will become more extreme and widespread this weekend as a sharp trough crossing the northern and central Rockies steers a strong jetstream over the forecast area. Wind speeds at 500 mb look to peak between 70-100 KT late Saturday night into Sunday. Surface wind gusts will likely reach over 60 mph, and potentially as high as 80 mph in spots, with the strongest winds Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front will dive southeastward across the state Saturday night and Sunday morning, mechanically mixing some of that stronger flow aloft to the surface. After high temperatures peak around 10-20 degrees above average on Saturday afternoon, readings will fall a few to 25 degrees across in most places on Sunday. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Monday, except for the eastern plains which will continue to feel cool air advection. Breezy to windy conditions will return on Monday on persistent brisk northwest flow aloft in the wake of the exiting upper trough, but surface winds will be significantly weaker than those felt Sunday.

An unseasonably strong high pressure system will begin to build over the southwest US toward the middle of next week with weaker winds and record and near record high temperatures reaching 15-25 degrees above 1991-2020 averages as early as Wednesday. This ridge of high pressure looks to become powerfully strong next weekend with an increasing likelihood of a historic and hazardous early season heatwave that could far surpass daily record high temperature records across much of northern and central New Mexico.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Northwest winds will be gusty until sunset this evening. The strongest gusts should reach up to 40 KT across east central areas, including Santa Rosa, Fort Sumner, Clovis, and Portales.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

With ERC values climbing above the 50th percentile in the Rio Grande Valley, well above the 50th percentile elsewhere, except over the 85th percentile across much of the eastern plains, this weekends high wind event is likely to produce areas of extreme fire weather conditions. There is a roughly 40 percent chance that critical fire weather conditions will linger after midnight Saturday night along the east slopes of mountain ranges and eastward across the eastern plains. After poor humidity recovery Saturday night south of a line from Clayton to Raton, to Cuba, and El Morro, critical fire weather conditions look to begin redeveloping as early as 8 am Sunday morning. Some of the strongest winds with this high wind event may occur as the Pacific cold front crosses late Saturday night into Sunday morning, which could justify a Red Flag Warning that remains in effect all night Saturday night through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 33 69 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 24 67 26 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 67 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 26 71 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 33 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 71 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 35 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 30 76 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 35 79 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 38 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 37 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 29 55 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 22 61 24 63 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 69 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 35 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 74 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 40 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 74 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 76 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 79 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 76 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 33 77 34 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 77 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 32 78 34 83 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 77 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 34 77 36 82 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 72 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 40 76 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 80 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 40 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 37 71 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 72 33 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 36 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 33 69 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 73 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 31 74 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 34 72 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 75 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 37 73 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 37 81 39 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 42 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 81 39 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 42 81 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 41 82 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 40 82 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 42 85 43 88 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 43 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ101-104-105-109-120>125.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ125.