textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Storms with occasional cloud to ground lightning and strong wind gusts will favor locations across central and eastern NM today.

- Locally heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding this afternoon, then again from Thursday through Saturday as a monsoon moisture plume resurges over the region. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

West coast troughing and the upper high over the Mississippi River Valley are allowing a monsoon moisture plume to stand up and persist over western and central NM per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Showers are persisting overnight across central NM in what is a fairly typical monsoon pattern, but has been largely absent for most of the summer. Another active day is forecast, with convection initially favoring areas from the Continental Divide to the central mountain chain, but then moving east out across the eastern highlands and into the plains through the evening hours per the latest CAMs. Locally heavy rainfall is likely once again, especially given above average PWATs. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding today in Ruidoso, but the latest CAMs are avoiding direct hits to the scars and favoring more intense convection to the east of Ruidoso. Above average temperatures will persist across the eastern plains today, where a moderate heat risk exists. PWATs take a dip across northern NM on Wednesday as some relative drier air is steered over the region, bringing a downtrend in coverage of daytime heating initiated convection. A moderate heat risk will persist across the eastern plains Wednesday, with Roswell forecast to reach a high of 100 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

An impressively deep upper low/trough is forecast to move inland Thu/Fri over the Pacific NW and pull the monsoon moisture plume back north over central and western NM, bringing well above average PWATs and an uptick in convective coverage. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue to be the primary threat, especially across western NM. A moderate heat risk will persist through the end of the week across the eastern plains, where pressure heights will trend slowly upward as the upper high begins to build back west toward NM. The upper high is forecast to center over far eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles over the weekend, focusing daily rounds of storms across the western and northern mountains. The upper high will be slow to back out of the region toward the east next week, but may allow for some tropical moisture to get picked up by a west coast trough forecast to shift into the Intermountain West. This development would favor western NM for daily rounds of storms initially, with the moisture plume shifting into central NM by mid week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Early this morning, showers are diminishing across north central NM. Another round of scattered showers and storms is forecast this afternoon, although focusing further east than Monday's round. Low probabilities exist for thunderstorm impacts at KSAF and KROW this afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include in the KABQ/KAEG TAFs at this time. Gusty and erratic winds are likely near showers and storms, especially this afternoon, but otherwise winds will be light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days. A monsoon moisture plume continues over the region and another active day with wetting storms and locally heavy rainfall is forecast. Humidity will continue to be higher than the past couple of weeks, with much of the area receiving good overnight recovery. Expect a downtick in coverage of wetting storms Wednesday, but a quick rebound toward the end of the week favoring the western half of the state thanks to a resurging monsoon moisture plume.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 82 58 86 59 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 44 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 82 55 83 56 / 10 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 80 51 84 51 / 0 5 10 0 El Morro........................ 80 52 81 51 / 5 5 5 0 Grants.......................... 82 54 85 55 / 20 5 5 0 Quemado......................... 80 55 81 55 / 30 5 10 5 Magdalena....................... 82 60 83 61 / 60 10 30 10 Datil........................... 78 54 80 55 / 40 10 20 5 Reserve......................... 87 53 87 55 / 10 10 10 5 Glenwood........................ 92 57 92 59 / 5 5 5 5 Chama........................... 77 48 78 49 / 10 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 81 59 83 60 / 20 10 5 0 Pecos........................... 83 56 85 56 / 40 20 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 53 82 54 / 40 5 5 0 Red River....................... 71 44 72 45 / 40 10 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 36 78 38 / 40 5 20 0 Taos............................ 84 50 85 51 / 30 5 5 0 Mora............................ 80 50 83 51 / 50 10 20 0 Espanola........................ 89 57 90 59 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 61 85 61 / 20 10 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 88 59 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 67 92 68 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 65 92 66 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 63 94 65 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 67 92 68 / 5 5 0 0 Belen........................... 92 62 93 64 / 20 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 92 65 93 66 / 5 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 92 61 93 62 / 10 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 93 66 93 66 / 5 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 92 62 93 64 / 10 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 65 90 66 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 66 92 66 / 5 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 94 67 94 68 / 30 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 58 86 60 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 86 61 87 62 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 87 56 88 57 / 30 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 54 90 55 / 30 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 85 58 86 60 / 40 20 5 10 Mountainair..................... 86 57 87 58 / 30 10 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 58 87 59 / 30 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 90 63 90 64 / 30 20 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 82 58 83 59 / 50 10 30 0 Capulin......................... 85 55 86 56 / 40 20 10 0 Raton........................... 87 51 89 52 / 50 20 10 0 Springer........................ 87 52 91 53 / 60 20 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 86 54 86 55 / 40 20 10 0 Clayton......................... 92 64 94 66 / 10 30 5 0 Roy............................. 87 58 90 59 / 40 20 5 0 Conchas......................... 96 65 98 67 / 30 30 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 93 63 93 65 / 50 20 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 98 67 98 69 / 10 40 10 10 Clovis.......................... 98 67 98 69 / 0 10 10 10 Portales........................ 98 68 98 70 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 98 67 98 69 / 10 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 99 71 100 72 / 20 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 92 62 93 64 / 70 10 30 10 Elk............................. 90 59 90 60 / 60 10 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.