textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1113 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Dry storms and gusty showers in western and central New Mexico may produce erratic wind gusts this afternoon and evening then again on Tuesday. Dry storms may cause new fire starts.

- Beneficial light rain and high mountain snow arrive late Tuesday through Wednesday, with precipitation favoring northern New Mexico.

- Strong west winds Wednesday through Friday will create hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles. Increasing likelihood of critical fire weather conditions in eastern New Mexico on Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 138 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Thunderstorms in southern Arizona have dissipated tonight, although decaying boundaries continue to push moisture northward. Moisture will continue to be advected into western NM tonight into tomorrow, providing the fuel for the development of a gusty showers and a few dry storms this afternoon. The overall coverage of convection has trended down in recent model runs, with lesser coverage across the northwest than previously anticipated. Virga showers will focus over southwestern NM in the early afternoon, moving northeast towards the Rio Grande Valley by the evening. Surface dewpoint depressions will be in the 40 to 55F degree range during the afternoon hours, so ample evaporative cooling will be capable of producing strong downburst wind gusts. Given low soil moisture and drought conditions, these downburst winds will likely create some patchy blowing dust, with localized visibility reductions. Showers will rapidly decay with the loss of daytime heating during the evening hours. Despite the widespread cloud cover, today will be another seasonably hot day with record highs broken, particularly in eastern areas.

Moisture will continue streaming into western NM on Tuesday. At the same time, the subtropical jet stream will eject inland into the desert southwest. Weak lift aloft will help to generate a few showers and storms in western NM once again, although slightly cooler temperatures will limit sfc based CAPE. The best coverage of showers will be in far northern NM and in the southwest mountains, with lesser coverage in central areas. The intensifying subtropical jet will translate to stronger winds around the area and any gusty showers that to develop will mix down these stronger winds aloft. Southwest/west winds will be strongest in far western NM where there may be a few gusts upwards of 45 mph.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A shortwave trough will approach the area on Wednesday amd its interaction with the anomalous moisture (200-300% of normal) in place will lead to the development of widespread showers and a few storms, focusing over northern New Mexico. Wind speeds have notably trended stronger Wednesday afternoon, particularly across eastern NM where there is now a 40-80% chance of gusts in excess of 50 mph. Models are showing that a clearly defined Pacific front that will rapidly sweep across the state from west to east, with a line of showers likely developing along its leading edge. This line of showers could produce some gusty winds as it moves across the state and it could kick up some dust as it moves down into the Rio Grande Valley as well. The window for precipitation will likely be shorter than the current forecast suggests, with the long period of PoPs accounting for timing uncertainty with the trough passage. Temperatures cool in the wake of the front but rebound quite rapidly Thursday from subsidence.

Typical Spring winds with dry conditions are forecast for Thursday and Friday with the strongest winds focusing in the northeast corner of the state. A potent trough is progged to track across the Intermountain West late week, with the base of the trough swinging through New Mexico. This will increase winds, but it will likely be too dry for any precipitation. A minority of models (around 25%) are showing a lagging shortwave on the backside of this trough, which could produce some very light precip. in far northern NM on Friday, although the drier solutions appears to be winning out in the long- term ensemble guidance.

Winds will likely trend weaker over the weekend as New Mexico gets stuck in-between the subtropical and polar jet streams. Temperatures will likely be near seasonal averages during this period as well, potentially colder in eastern NM behind a backdoor front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mid and high level clouds will increase today with weak showers and thunderstorms struggling to take shape over western and central areas of New Mexico. These will produce little rainfall, but will be capable of hurling out abrupt, strong, and erratic wind gusts through the early evening. A few lightning strikes will also be possible. Prevailing winds will be gusty this afternoon (gusts of 20 to 25 kt being common) through the early evening, and then they will settle down and diminish. Winds will re- strengthen late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Wind speeds have continued to trend slightly weaker for this afternoon so the Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled. A few hours of Red Flag conditions are still likely this afternoon in the southern portion of the Northeast Highlands but they were not deemed widespread enough to warrant an upgrade. Meanwhile, gusty showers and a few dry storms will likely develop in western NM this afternoon, with the highest confidence in the Southwest Mountains. Fuels are exceptionally dry in this area (record dryness for the date) so there is a threat that isolated lightning strikes will start new fires. These showers and storms will decay during the evening as they move eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Gusty showers and a few dry storms will be a concern in western NM again on Tuesday, although the coverage of precipitation will likely be slightly lower than today.

More widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday as a shortwave trough and associated Pacific cold front move across the state from west to east. Much-needed precipitation is likely in the northern mountains of New Mexico where there is a 70%+ chance of wetting precipitation. Amounts will be lighter further south, but still beneficial nonetheless. Forecast wind speeds have trended stronger on Wednesday, particularly in eastern NM. However, the influx of moisture should help to keep humidities above critical levels here. Unfortunately, that will not be the case on Thursday and Friday as winds remain strong and drier westerlies take over. There is now moderate to high confidence for critical fire weather conditions in eastern NM on Thursday and Friday, with moderate chances in central and northern areas. Winds trend weaker next weekend as temps cool down to near seasonal averages.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 46 72 47 / 0 10 20 70 Dulce........................... 74 35 69 37 / 5 10 30 80 Cuba............................ 73 40 69 40 / 10 20 20 60 Gallup.......................... 75 37 69 39 / 10 20 20 40 El Morro........................ 71 40 66 41 / 20 20 30 50 Grants.......................... 76 39 70 41 / 20 20 20 30 Quemado......................... 70 41 69 44 / 50 40 30 50 Magdalena....................... 74 47 72 50 / 40 30 10 30 Datil........................... 70 43 68 44 / 40 40 20 40 Reserve......................... 76 35 73 39 / 40 30 20 30 Glenwood........................ 80 40 78 41 / 30 20 30 40 Chama........................... 70 36 62 35 / 5 10 20 80 Los Alamos...................... 72 48 68 46 / 10 20 10 50 Pecos........................... 74 41 71 40 / 10 20 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 70 41 65 41 / 5 5 10 40 Red River....................... 61 37 59 37 / 5 5 10 50 Angel Fire...................... 66 33 63 35 / 5 5 10 40 Taos............................ 75 37 70 39 / 5 10 5 40 Mora............................ 72 42 68 40 / 10 10 10 30 Espanola........................ 79 43 75 44 / 10 10 10 50 Santa Fe........................ 75 45 71 45 / 10 20 10 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 44 75 44 / 10 20 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 54 75 53 / 20 30 10 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 53 78 52 / 20 20 10 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 46 80 46 / 20 20 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 51 78 53 / 20 20 10 30 Belen........................... 81 46 81 50 / 20 30 10 30 Bernalillo...................... 81 49 78 51 / 20 20 10 40 Bosque Farms.................... 80 44 79 46 / 20 30 10 30 Corrales........................ 81 50 78 50 / 20 20 10 40 Los Lunas....................... 80 45 79 48 / 20 30 10 30 Placitas........................ 77 53 74 52 / 20 20 10 40 Rio Rancho...................... 81 53 77 54 / 20 20 10 40 Socorro......................... 84 52 82 55 / 30 20 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 49 70 48 / 20 30 10 50 Tijeras......................... 75 49 72 49 / 10 30 10 40 Edgewood........................ 76 47 71 47 / 10 20 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 39 74 40 / 10 20 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 74 44 71 42 / 10 20 5 30 Mountainair..................... 76 46 74 47 / 10 30 5 30 Gran Quivira.................... 76 46 73 46 / 10 20 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 80 50 77 51 / 0 10 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 75 46 72 46 / 5 5 5 10 Capulin......................... 75 42 71 42 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 79 39 75 40 / 0 0 10 20 Springer........................ 81 39 77 42 / 0 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 78 44 73 43 / 10 10 5 20 Clayton......................... 85 53 79 45 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 81 46 77 46 / 0 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 89 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 84 51 81 51 / 0 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 90 51 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 91 52 87 52 / 0 10 0 0 Portales........................ 91 49 88 49 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 89 48 86 50 / 5 10 0 5 Roswell......................... 91 52 89 53 / 5 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 85 50 82 51 / 20 10 5 5 Elk............................. 83 46 79 47 / 20 0 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.