textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The large-scale circulation pattern across the Pacific Ocean and southwestern U.S. will continue evolving over the next 48 hours to support a monsoon burst pattern later this week. A large cluster of heavy storms currently propagating northwest thru Sonora will also become a player this week. 00Z RAOBs showed the H5 ridge still centered over northwest NM with heights holding steady near 596dm. Surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 40s and lower 50s over a larger portion of central and western NM. 06Z satellite blended PWATs are holding steady near 0.85" over much of NM as well. Showers and storms will redevelop over the higher terrain this afternoon then move erratically west into nearby valleys thru sunset. These storms are expected to be a little more vigorous than Monday as 00Z CAMs show greater CAPE with lifted indices below -3C and more deformation focused along and west of the Cont Divide. A 30kt upper level speed max moving west over southern NM within the base of the H5 high will also help to support a more organized area of storms thru tonight over western NM. HREF and REFS LPMM QPF along with support from the NAM12 and HRRR QPF show an area of heavy rain traveling from Catron County north and west into the Gallup and Zuni areas tonight. Strong storm cells will be capable of producing >0.75" of rain. Given the recent heatwave and dry stretch the threat for flash flooding may be limited to a few locales that pick of the heaviest rainfall.

By Wednesday, the H5 high will begin shifting east as a more well- defined H5 trough develops along the West Coast. This trough is partially in response to a 40kt speed max extending northeast from an area of enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Pacific. Deeper moisture will surge northward into NM as 700-500mb layer flow becomes more southerly. PWATs are shown rising above 1" over much of the region. Steering flow will also become more aligned with north-south terrain so the threat for locally heavy rainfall will increase further. There may also be a remnant MCV lingering somewhere over eastern AZ from the convection tonight, which may be drawn northward across western NM on Wednesday. 00Z NBM 90th percentile QPF shows a broad swath of rainfall amounts between 1 and 1.5" along the Cont Divide into Wednesday night. REFS 24-hr LPMM QPF also shows several pockets >1.25". A Flash Flood Watch may be required for parts of western NM Wednesday depending on what happens today and tonight.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Thursday and Friday may be very active days as the speed max approaching from the eastern Pacific helps to lift the remnant convective circulation from Sonora slowly northeastward over NM. PWATs are shown peaking near 1.2" over the region. As is always the case with monsoon moisture surges, the coverage and intensity of convection will depend on how much instability can develop if widespread cloud cover is present. NBM 48-hour mean QPF shows a large area between 0.25" and 0.75" which is not too impressive. NBM 90th percentile values rise above 1.75" in a few areas so the potential is there for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. QPF values may rise considerably once hi-res model solutions get a handle on the scenario. Forecast confidence is still moderate at this time.

Saturday and Sunday also have potential to be active days as the moisture plume remains squarely over NM with the high east of the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Showers and mid level cigs will linger thru 3AM followed by partial clearing thru sunrise. SHRA/TS will develop over most high terrain areas between 1PM and 3PM then drift erratically westward into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rain, strong outflow winds >35KT, and frequent lightning. Showers and mid level cigs will persist west of the Rio Grande Valley thru late Tuesday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Moisture will continue improving over the region today with only small pockets of minimum humidity below 15%. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorm outflows. The chances for wetting rainfall will increase today with locally heavy rainfall amounts >0.50" from the stronger cells. New wildfires are still possible from lightning strikes in dry fuels. The coverage of showers and storms is likely to trend even greater Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall amounts >1" possible along and west of the central mt chain. A monsoon burst pattern may impact the region Thursday and Friday as a rich plume of moisture surges northeast from Mexico. Greater coverage of showers and storms with rainfall amounts >1" are possible which will help to moisten fuels and limit new fire starts from lightning. The risk for flash flooding will also increase on area burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 98 66 92 64 / 0 30 10 50 Dulce........................... 95 56 89 54 / 30 30 40 50 Cuba............................ 92 59 88 58 / 20 50 30 50 Gallup.......................... 90 59 86 58 / 30 50 40 50 El Morro........................ 85 56 81 56 / 60 50 60 50 Grants.......................... 90 59 88 58 / 40 50 50 40 Quemado......................... 87 58 82 58 / 60 40 70 40 Magdalena....................... 90 63 87 62 / 30 50 40 20 Datil........................... 85 57 81 57 / 50 30 60 30 Reserve......................... 92 58 86 57 / 70 30 70 40 Glenwood........................ 96 63 91 61 / 60 20 50 40 Chama........................... 87 54 81 52 / 40 30 60 40 Los Alamos...................... 90 63 86 62 / 30 20 40 40 Pecos........................... 91 57 89 57 / 40 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 56 85 55 / 30 20 50 30 Red River....................... 83 49 79 47 / 50 20 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 84 42 81 42 / 60 20 60 20 Taos............................ 92 59 87 57 / 30 20 40 30 Mora............................ 89 54 86 54 / 60 20 50 20 Espanola........................ 98 65 93 63 / 20 20 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 91 61 89 60 / 20 20 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 61 91 60 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 67 93 66 / 10 30 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 70 95 68 / 10 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 68 97 67 / 10 30 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 68 95 67 / 20 30 20 20 Belen........................... 99 67 97 66 / 0 30 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 100 67 96 66 / 10 30 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 99 65 96 64 / 5 30 10 20 Corrales........................ 100 67 96 66 / 10 30 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 99 65 96 64 / 5 30 10 20 Placitas........................ 94 66 92 65 / 10 30 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 98 68 95 67 / 20 30 20 20 Socorro......................... 102 71 98 69 / 5 40 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 61 86 60 / 20 40 30 20 Tijeras......................... 93 62 90 62 / 20 30 30 20 Edgewood........................ 95 61 90 60 / 20 30 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 56 92 56 / 20 30 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 91 59 88 59 / 30 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 94 61 90 60 / 10 30 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 92 60 89 60 / 10 30 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 95 68 93 67 / 5 10 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 87 62 86 60 / 20 5 40 20 Capulin......................... 89 59 88 57 / 30 20 20 10 Raton........................... 93 57 92 56 / 40 20 20 20 Springer........................ 95 57 95 57 / 30 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 91 57 90 57 / 30 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 97 66 98 65 / 0 10 5 5 Roy............................. 92 62 94 62 / 5 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 100 68 101 69 / 0 5 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 96 66 97 67 / 0 10 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 102 69 102 70 / 0 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 99 67 99 70 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 100 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 100 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 102 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 97 67 96 67 / 5 0 20 10 Elk............................. 94 63 91 62 / 10 0 30 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.