textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- A heightened risk of flooding continues across north central and northeast New Mexico today. Continue to expect waves of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. Have multiple ways to receive warnings.

- Localized river flooding will continue Wednesday. Low-lying farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding.

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times each morning through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A closed Low is currently located over western NM this afternoon and will continue its trek eastward across the state today, with the center reaching the TX border around Midnight. Bands of precipitation will rotate around the center of the Low, with the most persistent rain on the north side where upper-level dynamics are most favorable. Rainfall rates will generally be on the light and moderate side, but could briefly reach rates up to 1"/hour as has already been seen late this morning. Short-term model guidance is in good agreement that the highest rain totals will focus over Taos, Mora, and Colfax Counties where 1-2" is likely. 12-hour totals may exceed 3" over a small area in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, but rainfall rates will remain a limiting factor for higher totals. Given the soaking rain over the past few weeks, there will be a threat of landslides, particularly in steep areas along the Enchanted Circle. While persistent rain will focus over northern NM, scattered showers and storms are likely under the Low and along the backside today as where brief clearing will help some instability build up. As a result, an isolated instance or two of flash flooding could occur in western and central portions of this state this afternoon. Rain will taper off from west to east overnight, with showers continuing through the early morning hours in the far northeast corner of the state.

Northerly flow on the backside of the exiting low will send a boundary into eastern NM, with gusty north to northeast winds in the plains north of I-40. The wind gust forecast remains just below Wind Advisory criteria (50 mph), but trends will be monitored for issuance with the next forecast package. Showers and even a few storms may develop Thursday afternoon along the leading edge of the aformentioned boundary as it pushes into central NM. Upslope flow will favor the Sacramento Mountains so rain chances stick around through the evening and overnight hours, but intensity will remain very light so flooding will not be a concern.

Patchy fog may develop both Thursday and again Friday morning due to lingering ponding and very wet soils. Mountain valleys in western NM will be the favored area Thursday morning, with northern mountain valleys favored Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The center of the retrograding upper-low will center itself over far northern NM on Friday, keeping upslope flow in place over the Sacramento Mountains. There will also likely be a low cloud deck across the eastern plains, which will keep high temps down, with highs running 10 to 15 degrees below average. The pleasant Fall weather will continue into the weekend as temperatures slowly moderate close to seasonal averages. Dry weather with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue through the weekend. Ridging will amplify over the Intermountain West early next week, keeping the warming trend going.

Zonal to northwest flow will attempt to squash this ridge Tuesday. Given the very positive tilt of the trough, it would likely struggle to draw significant sub-tropical moisture northward. Neither ensemble system is bullish on widespread rainfall, with all showing less than 0.25" areawide. Amplified ridging will likely persist over the western CONUS through the end of next week, favoring dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers and a few storms are continuing to rotate around a closed low, which is now centered just west of the ABQ metro this evening. Precipitation activity is mainly over the northern third of the state, with more isolated activity still forming across areas south of I-40. A few low topped storms may produce instances of marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind over the next hour or two across far northeastern portions of NM. With showers and storms progged to mainly favor northern NM, brief instances of MVFR to IFR CIGs will be possible in any heavier showers and storms. Showers will end from west to east overnight, with some lingering activity over the northeast corner of the state through sunrise. Patchy fog may develop tomorrow morning, especially across western valleys, due to lingering ponding and very wet soils. Incorporated TEMPO groups for KGUP and KFMN for MVFR/IFR in response to this trend, mainly between the hours of 09-14Z. A strong northerly breeze will develop in response to a boundary late tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours. Showers and even a few storms may develop Thursday afternoon along the leading edge of this boundary as it pushes into central NM, however, probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain showers today will favor northern NM, with additional rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5". Amounts will be lower across western and central areas where accumulations will generally be less than 0.5". Showers and storms end from west to east overnight, persisting through the morning in the northeast corner of the state.

Gusty north winds (gusts of 25 to 45 mph) will develop overnight in northeast New Mexico, spreading into southeast New Mexico by the afternoon and evening. Other than a few showers in south-central areas, dry conditions will prevail Thursday afternoon through the weekend as temperatures gradually moderate. There are low chances of precipitation areawide Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Patchy fog may develop both Thursday and Friday mornings, with western mountain valleys favored Thursday morning and northern mountain valleys favored Friday morning. Patchy morning fog may continue through the weekend in a few areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 49 73 51 75 / 40 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 40 73 39 74 / 50 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 67 44 66 / 50 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 42 69 44 71 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 41 67 42 66 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 44 67 44 67 / 30 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 45 67 44 67 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 64 47 63 / 5 10 20 0 Datil........................... 43 62 43 61 / 5 0 10 0 Reserve......................... 45 75 46 74 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 79 51 80 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 64 40 70 / 70 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 46 63 44 66 / 70 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 43 66 40 68 / 60 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 61 38 69 / 100 5 0 0 Red River....................... 35 52 35 61 / 100 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 56 34 64 / 100 20 0 0 Taos............................ 41 63 41 70 / 100 0 0 0 Mora............................ 43 62 41 65 / 90 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 47 70 43 73 / 80 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 64 43 66 / 60 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 66 44 67 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 70 47 72 / 40 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 70 49 72 / 40 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 72 50 73 / 40 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 71 48 72 / 40 10 10 0 Belen........................... 51 71 50 72 / 30 20 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 72 47 73 / 40 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 72 48 73 / 30 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 51 72 49 73 / 40 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 72 47 73 / 30 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 49 68 46 70 / 40 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 51 71 49 72 / 40 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 51 73 50 73 / 10 20 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 63 43 65 / 40 20 10 0 Tijeras......................... 46 66 45 68 / 40 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 45 65 44 65 / 30 20 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 67 40 67 / 30 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 63 44 62 / 30 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 64 44 63 / 30 20 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 64 44 63 / 30 10 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 69 50 66 / 20 10 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 44 63 45 58 / 20 20 30 30 Capulin......................... 42 55 42 63 / 90 70 20 0 Raton........................... 44 61 44 68 / 90 50 5 0 Springer........................ 47 64 41 68 / 90 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 44 62 42 65 / 70 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 51 63 50 65 / 90 50 20 0 Roy............................. 47 65 44 67 / 70 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 55 74 52 73 / 50 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 55 70 52 67 / 20 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 72 53 68 / 30 20 20 0 Clovis.......................... 53 73 54 67 / 10 20 10 5 Portales........................ 55 74 54 68 / 5 20 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 57 74 54 70 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 77 57 70 / 0 10 20 20 Picacho......................... 50 72 51 65 / 0 20 30 40 Elk............................. 47 71 49 64 / 0 10 30 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ203-210-211- 213>217-227-228-230.