textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 500 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles Thursday and especially Friday, mainly across eastern NM.

- Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday and Friday to northeast and east-central NM, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark.

- A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Current pleasant and quiet overnight conditions will yield to strengthening southwesterly winds this afternoon. A strong and very well defined H5 low centered over northern ID this hour will amplify with its associated jetmax digging southward over the the Great Basin and Desert Southwest this afternoon. A modest H5 trough off the Baja Coast will also begin to phase in line with this northerly system, which is all to say southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen over NM. Deep layer mixing and a 993mb MSLP surface low over eastern CO will help amplify southwesterly surface winds across the area this afternoon, gusting 35 to 45 mph across northeastern and east- central NM. Lesser wind gusts will be present elsewhere over the forecast area. Winds lessen overnight as the boundary layer decouples and stronger winds aloft separate from the surface.

The main trough axis will cross the state Friday with its associated 100kt H3 jetmax square over the state. Surface winds look to veer westerly most areas to start the mid to late morning hours, starting strong over ridgetops before quickly spreading to lower elevations areawide by mid-day and early afternoon. H7 winds of 35 to 45 kts will be easily tapped into providing for strong gusty winds peaking out 40 to 55 mph mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Meanwhile a potent Pacific portion of the cold front will quickly advance southeastward through northwestern NM in the mid-to- late morning hours before reaching the Rio Grande Valley and central NM by the afternoon. Hazardous crosswinds on area highways and patchy blowing dust reducing visibility in dust prone areas will be the main sensible weather impacts. Widespread critical fire weather will also be present alongside the very low humidity (see Fire Weather Discussion). The backdoor portion of the cold front quickly enters northeastern NM Friday evening, advancing southward thru eastern NM pushing back the drier Pacific portion to the Pecos River Valley and reaching Roswell before midnight. A light to modest east canyon wind could reach the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metros Saturday morning as the backdoor portion of the cold front has a moderate chance (40% to 60%) of pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain.

As winds subside and drier air settles in, temperatures will be allowed to plummet across northern and central NM. Freezing temperatures remain forecast across the northwestern half of the state Saturday morning, with a hard freeze with lows in the 10s and 20s across the western and northern thirds. Despite being a couple weeks before many average last freeze dates, the March heatwave initiated early green up and blooming across the area. As such, a Freeze Watch will be issued for Saturday morning for areas with a higher confidence of a hard freeze occurring. This may be expanded to areas forecast to be near freezing including Glenwood in the San Francisco River Valley, the Albuquerque metro, and portions of the east-central plains from Tucumcari to Clovis.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The sharp drop in temperatures warms back above freezing into the 50s and 60s Saturday afternoon. Forecast highs will fall 5F to 17F relative to Friday across the central and eastern portions of the state, ranging from the 50s to 60s areawide. Southerly surface return flow takes hold come Sunday and Monday as a negatively tilted H5 ridge of high pressure builds over the state. This will increase temperatures and advect northward increased Gulf moisture into the area. A few virga and light showers are likely to develop over the area Sunday afternoon, capable of producing isolated erratic gusty winds. Otherwise, most areas will experience rather pleasant conditions.

Moisture is favored to trend lower Tuesday with lesser chances for virga showers in the afternoon. A more dynamic upper level pattern will move into the western CONUS mid-to-late next week, all focused around another large H5 low moving ashore the CA coastline and a strong polar jetmax pushing in quickly behind that into the PacNW. While confidence is high for unsettled weather mainly during the Thursday thru Saturday timeframe, forecast confidence is very low regarding precipitation chances vs wind strength and timing of these features. The upper low looks to feature a very dynamic and complex setup highlighted by 2-3 pronounced vortmaxes rotating around the circulation structure of the storm, and how this system interacts with the aforementioned strong polar jetmax pushing into the PacNW. This is resulting in several equally likely scenarios for how this system can evolve and track across the western CONUS for the latter portion of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR prevails as light and variable winds this morning yield to increasing southwesterly winds this afternoon gusting 25 to 35 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MAJORITY OF NORTHEASTERN NM TODAY AND EASTERN NM FRIDAY...

Southwesterly winds increase today alongside widespread low humidity falling below 10 percent, in some places for 4 to 10 hours allowing fuels to cure. The strongest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will focus over northeastern NM where a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and early evening. Westerly winds strengthen further Friday alongside another round of very low humidity falling to near or below 10 percent. Critical fire weather will be more widespread thanks to the stronger winds, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the southern third of NM (see our neighbors discussion at NWS El Paso for south-central and southwestern NM) and over the eastern half of the state. Elevated to locally critical conditions will also be present up and down the Rio Grande Valley and western NM as well. Winds turn northwesterly behind a cold front entering northwestern NM first mid-day Friday, advancing southeastward across the state thru Friday afternoon, meeting up with the backdoor portion of the cold front in eastern NM Friday evening. Winds turn northerly across the area Friday night, staying strongest the longest over central and eastern NM.

Critical fire weather subsides as winds subside thru Friday night into Saturday morning while temperatures plummet below freezing over the northwestern half of the state. Below normal temperatures Saturday trend warmer Sunday and Monday alongside increased humidity and moisture. A few afternoon virga showers will be capable of producing some isolated erratic wind gusts Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, prevailing winds will be breezy with improving overnight recoveries to start next week. A period of drier windier weather is favored Tuesday and Wednesday before a period of unsettled weather returns late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 72 41 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 67 31 57 14 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 70 38 59 22 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 31 60 16 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 66 35 59 25 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 33 64 21 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 69 35 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 71 42 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 67 37 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 31 71 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 74 35 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 61 30 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 68 43 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 67 37 64 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 58 22 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 54 32 49 17 / 0 0 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 61 26 55 12 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 68 30 62 18 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 67 36 62 22 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 74 38 70 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 68 41 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 40 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 49 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 46 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 45 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 47 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 79 41 77 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 77 47 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 79 41 76 31 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 78 47 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 79 43 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 73 48 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 77 47 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 80 43 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 43 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 71 43 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 71 40 68 27 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 35 70 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 38 64 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 71 40 70 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 71 40 70 30 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 48 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 65 46 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 72 38 65 19 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 75 33 68 20 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 78 34 71 22 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 70 38 65 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 45 76 28 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 76 41 71 26 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 46 80 31 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 44 75 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 48 82 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 82 50 83 36 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 83 51 85 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 83 45 82 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 87 49 86 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 78 48 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 46 75 33 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217-218-222-223-228>233.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123>126.