textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 450 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

- A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers with mountain snow Friday through Saturday. Several inches of snow are forecast above 8,500ft and there is a chance for difficult travel conditions in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next week, especially Tuesday, with potential for more precipitation across western and northern NM.

- There is a threat for the rapid spread of fire across eastern NM early next week, especially with stronger winds on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1238 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

A Pacific low, currently offshore of the Baja Peninsula, will progress east over the region through Friday night. The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a tap of Pacific moisture over NM extending southwest back into the eastern Pacific ocean and is associated with well above normal PWATs. Moisture advection will continue across our area overnight and forcing associated with the approaching upper low will trend up during the day Friday, bringing the development and expansion in coverage of showers. Sufficient instability and forcing will exist Friday afternoon and evening for a few lightning strikes and some graupel. Snow levels will start off high, around 8500-9500ft on Friday and then lower to around 7,500ft by Saturday morning as the upper level trough/low ejects east into TX. We're still forecasting advisory-level snowfall in the Tusas and Sangre De Cristo Mountains with this event, mainly above 8500ft, so will issue a Winter Weather Advisory shortly. Otherwise, this event will bring solid soaking rain for much of the area, although the latest modeling of the upper low shows it filling and briefly opening-up as it moves overhead. Meaning, the forcing is trending weaker and temperatures aloft are trending warmer which would lead to less widespread precipitation and higher snow levels.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Precipitation will wind-down over northeast NM Saturday morning on the backside of the ejecting upper low/trough, with brisk northerly winds developing at the surface across the eastern plains. An upper level ridge will follow behind the upper low and move east across the region through the weekend, bringing warming that will send temperatures above average areawide by Sunday. A lee side trough is forecast to deepen Sunday afternoon as the upper level ridge axis moves east of NM, bringing breezy conditions to the eastern plains and highlands.

The focus for next week will be on an impressive/deep troughing pattern along the west coast and the associated polar jet stream, which is forecast to turn inland over SoCal on Monday and then plague NM from Tuesday through Thursday with windy to very windy conditions. The polar jet will also steer Pacific moisture over the region and provide sufficient orographic forcing for snow across the western and northern mountains. Otherwise, winds will be the main weather hazard from Tuesday through Thursday, with growing forecast confidence that Tuesday will require wind highlights across eastern NM at a minimum. Model spread among the 12Z medium range solutions is leading to lower forecast confidence on whether Wednesday or Thursday will be the windier day, so at this time it's best to plan on both days being windy and potentially requiring more wind highlights.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 450 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Lowering VFR ceilings overnight into tomorrow morning across the airspace ahead of an approaching Pacific upper low. Rain and high mountain snow moves into western NM, including KGUP, late Friday morning before spreading northeast into central and southeast NM Friday afternoon and early evening. Ceilings will lower to MVFR criteria across western and north central NM during this time with likely mountain observations. Potential exists for localized areas of IFR visibility in heavier rain/mountain snow showers. Breezy south-southwest winds at KROW late Friday afternoon as the area of showers moves in.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through Sunday, but there is a good chance for critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains early to mid next week. A moist Pacific system will impact the area Friday into early Saturday with high humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation. Drying/warming is forecast Sunday and Monday as an upper level ridge moves over the area and gives way to increasing southwest flow aloft and a deepening lee side trough. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast across eastern NM Monday thanks to lee side troughing, but the jet stream will supply much stronger winds Tuesday when critical fire weather conditions are likely across the eastern plains. The jet stream will also bring Pacific moisture, so humidity may be a limiter for critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Strong westerly flow will persist across the region on Wed/Thu, with continued potential for critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains. Meanwhile, chances for wetting precipitation will grace western and northern central NM from Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 35 53 34 57 / 10 70 50 0 Dulce........................... 27 53 27 55 / 5 80 70 20 Cuba............................ 32 53 30 50 / 5 80 80 20 Gallup.......................... 26 49 24 55 / 5 80 70 5 El Morro........................ 33 49 30 51 / 5 80 80 10 Grants.......................... 29 53 27 55 / 5 80 80 5 Quemado......................... 34 52 32 50 / 0 80 70 10 Magdalena....................... 41 56 35 56 / 5 70 80 10 Datil........................... 35 51 32 50 / 0 80 70 5 Reserve......................... 33 55 29 58 / 5 80 70 10 Glenwood........................ 37 60 30 65 / 5 80 70 5 Chama........................... 27 47 24 50 / 5 80 80 20 Los Alamos...................... 38 51 34 52 / 5 70 80 20 Pecos........................... 33 55 31 54 / 0 70 90 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 51 32 48 / 0 60 80 30 Red River....................... 27 42 27 40 / 0 70 80 40 Angel Fire...................... 21 49 21 47 / 5 60 80 40 Taos............................ 30 54 30 53 / 0 60 80 20 Mora............................ 31 54 29 53 / 0 50 80 30 Espanola........................ 32 59 34 60 / 0 60 80 20 Santa Fe........................ 38 55 35 54 / 5 70 90 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 56 34 56 / 5 70 80 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 59 40 58 / 5 70 80 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 60 39 60 / 5 70 80 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 62 37 63 / 5 70 80 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 60 39 60 / 5 70 80 10 Belen........................... 37 62 36 63 / 5 70 80 10 Bernalillo...................... 40 61 39 62 / 5 70 80 10 Bosque Farms.................... 36 62 35 63 / 5 70 80 10 Corrales........................ 39 61 38 62 / 5 70 80 10 Los Lunas....................... 36 62 36 63 / 5 70 80 10 Placitas........................ 41 57 39 57 / 5 70 80 20 Rio Rancho...................... 41 60 39 61 / 5 70 80 10 Socorro......................... 43 64 39 65 / 0 50 80 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 40 55 35 53 / 5 70 90 10 Tijeras......................... 41 56 36 54 / 5 70 90 10 Edgewood........................ 38 57 34 56 / 0 60 90 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 59 31 58 / 0 50 90 10 Clines Corners.................. 36 55 32 53 / 0 50 80 20 Mountainair..................... 38 59 34 56 / 0 60 90 10 Gran Quivira.................... 38 59 35 57 / 0 50 80 10 Carrizozo....................... 43 62 37 58 / 0 50 70 10 Ruidoso......................... 41 56 35 51 / 0 50 40 10 Capulin......................... 31 56 29 47 / 0 20 80 50 Raton........................... 29 58 31 51 / 0 30 80 40 Springer........................ 29 59 32 55 / 0 30 80 20 Las Vegas....................... 33 57 31 55 / 0 40 80 20 Clayton......................... 36 59 38 53 / 0 10 80 50 Roy............................. 34 58 36 55 / 0 10 80 20 Conchas......................... 36 65 37 63 / 0 20 80 20 Santa Rosa...................... 39 63 37 60 / 0 30 70 10 Tucumcari....................... 38 66 37 62 / 0 20 70 20 Clovis.......................... 44 68 40 60 / 0 30 50 20 Portales........................ 40 70 40 61 / 0 30 50 20 Fort Sumner..................... 39 66 38 61 / 0 30 50 10 Roswell......................... 44 67 42 65 / 0 20 30 10 Picacho......................... 43 65 38 63 / 0 20 30 10 Elk............................. 40 64 34 61 / 0 30 30 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Saturday for NMZ210-213-214.