textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- A monsoon moisture plume will increase over the area from late Thursday into the middle of next week, resulting in an uptick in daily rounds of storms and localized flash flooding. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows drier air aloft rotating around the upper high circulation across AZ/NM and will result in lower PWATs, likely measured with the upcoming 18Z ABQ UA sounding. The downtrend in PWATs is correlated with a downtick in convective coverage that will continue today in what will likely be the least active day of the next seven. However, the downtick will be short lived as potent upper level low/trough dives south into the Pacific NW through Thursday and pulls a monsoon moisture plume north into the region. PWATs will begin to climb back up Thursday and result in an increase in convective coverage across western NM, especially along/west of the Continental Divide and in the Southwest Mountains.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The uptrend in PWATs will continue Thursday night into Friday, with values set to rise well above the 90th percentile and challenge daily records through the weekend and into the middle of next week as remnant tropical moisture gets into the mix. Moisture availability won't be a problem, but the upper high is forecast to move back west into the region and extend a stubborn ridge axis southwest across NM. The upper high will cause above average temperatures to persist across much of eastern and central NM into next week, with a moderate heat risk. However, ridging in the mid levels of the atmosphere and anticipated cloud cover will limit convective potential through at least early next week. The latest medium range model solutions are showing significant spread with regard to the amplification and placement of synoptic features from mid through late next week, leading to a lower confidence forecast beyond Tuesday. That said, given the abundant availability of tropical moisture and the upper high forecast to retreat back to the east, there is some potential for a wet period to unfold by late next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds. Coverage of showers and storms will trend down significantly today compared to the past couple of days, with KROW being the only TAF worthy of a PROB30 group.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A significant downtick in wetting storms is forecast today as drier air aloft has moved over the region. However, a monsoon moisture plume will increase back over the area late Thursday and persist through at least early next week, resulting in an uptrend in humidity and daily rounds of wetting storms. Otherwise, above average temperatures will persist through eastern and much of central NM into early next week despite the increased moisture.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 86 59 85 62 / 0 5 5 20 Dulce........................... 84 44 84 49 / 0 0 0 30 Cuba............................ 83 55 83 57 / 0 0 20 30 Gallup.......................... 83 52 83 55 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 80 52 80 55 / 0 0 30 40 Grants.......................... 85 55 84 57 / 0 0 40 40 Quemado......................... 81 55 81 58 / 0 5 50 50 Magdalena....................... 82 60 82 61 / 5 5 40 50 Datil........................... 79 55 79 57 / 0 5 50 40 Reserve......................... 87 53 86 57 / 0 5 40 40 Glenwood........................ 93 58 90 59 / 0 5 30 50 Chama........................... 77 48 78 50 / 10 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 81 59 82 61 / 0 0 5 30 Pecos........................... 84 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 52 81 56 / 10 0 0 5 Red River....................... 71 45 73 47 / 10 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 78 39 79 40 / 10 0 0 10 Taos............................ 83 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 82 51 83 53 / 0 0 20 10 Espanola........................ 88 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Fe........................ 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 67 91 67 / 10 5 0 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 64 91 65 / 0 5 0 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 63 93 64 / 0 5 0 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 40 Belen........................... 91 63 92 62 / 0 5 5 40 Bernalillo...................... 90 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 40 Bosque Farms.................... 90 61 92 61 / 0 5 0 40 Corrales........................ 90 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 40 Los Lunas....................... 90 63 92 63 / 0 5 5 40 Placitas........................ 87 65 89 65 / 10 0 0 40 Rio Rancho...................... 91 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 40 Socorro......................... 93 68 94 67 / 0 5 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 60 86 59 / 10 5 0 40 Tijeras......................... 86 61 86 61 / 10 0 0 40 Edgewood........................ 87 57 88 57 / 10 0 10 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 54 90 54 / 10 0 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 85 58 86 58 / 10 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 86 58 87 58 / 10 5 10 30 Gran Quivira.................... 86 59 87 58 / 0 5 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 90 64 90 64 / 0 5 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 81 59 83 59 / 5 5 50 20 Capulin......................... 85 56 86 57 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 88 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 90 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 85 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 92 65 95 67 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 89 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 97 66 99 67 / 10 5 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 92 65 94 65 / 10 5 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 97 70 99 69 / 10 5 0 10 Clovis.......................... 96 69 98 69 / 10 10 20 10 Portales........................ 96 70 99 69 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 96 68 98 68 / 10 5 5 10 Roswell......................... 97 71 100 71 / 10 5 0 10 Picacho......................... 92 64 94 64 / 20 5 50 10 Elk............................. 89 60 91 60 / 20 5 60 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.