textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days.

- Gusty and erratic winds and small hail will accompany isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Tuesday, with more widespread storms likely later in the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A rather meager crop of showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of the day. Storms will favor far southeast and southwest portions of the CWA, as well as the north central and northwest mountains. Elsewhere, mid to upper level dry air that has rounded the upper high will squash precipitation chances. Gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will remain the main concerns with storms today. Though much of the activity will decrease with the loss of daytime heating, a few CAMs suggest that a few showers or storms will linger through the overnight hours once again, especially across far southern portions of the CWA where the dry air hasn't reached.

A slight uptick in storm coverage is expected for Tuesday, mainly across the northern and western mountains, though these will mainly be small, short-lived storms speckling the radar, not unlike what occurred across eastern NM yesterday. CAMs do show a small cluster of storms over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains that may be a little more robust, however. Overall, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be the main concerns once again. Storm coverage and intensity will decrease after sunset.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A more significant uptick in convection is now progged for Wed/Thu. All models are showing a compact disturbance shifting westward near the KS/OK border south the main upper high on Tuesday. This disturbance looks to push into eastern NM on Wednesday and slowly cross NM through Thursday morning. This feature will help erode the mid and upper level dry air, and persistent low level moist southeasterly flow will allow PWATs to climb into the 0.85-1.25 inch range, especially by Thursday. Additionally, a weak upper low is still expected to develop over central and southwest TX late Tuesday into Wednesday and this feature will also slide northwestward Wed/Thu, with the center approaching the southeastern corner of NM by late Thursday. There will be subsidence ahead of this low that will limit storms across eastern NM perhaps as early as Wednesday, but moreso Thursday. However, the first disturbance will help to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage along and west of the Central Mountain Chain both Wed/Thu. Given pretty strong 700-500 lapse rates, abundant moisture and instability, some storms will produce heavy rainfall which may lead to nuisance or localized flash flooding. Most storms look to be west of the Ruidoso burn scars on Wednesday, but there is a little more uncertainty on Thursday.

The big question continues to be where the weak upper level low will move Friday through the weekend. Models are tending to keep it further to the southeast then they were yesterday, owing to the stronger upper high near the UT/CO/WY border. Nonetheless, PWATs will continue to creep upward through the period with widespread 1 to 1.5 inch PWATs across NM. Showers and thunderstorms will persist daily, but thunderstorms might become less abundant as mid level lapse rates become increasingly moist adiabatic. Thus, we may see more widespread showers with efficient rain rates and isolated thunderstorms rather than widespread heavy thunderstorms. Stay tuned, as this is still subject to change as models get a better handle on how this will evolve.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon hours across the southeast plains, southwest mountains and the north central and northwest mountains. Storms will shift toward the west around 5 to 10 kt. Gusty and erratic winds to 35kt and brief heavy rain resulting in MVFR vsbys are the main concerns with these storms today. Storms should diminish in coverage and intensity after sunset, but a few storms could linger overnight, including around KROW. There also is a low chance that MVFR cigs develop across the southeast plains, including KROW, overnight. If these low clouds develop, they should erode by late morning Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected over the next week. Rather, daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, which will become more numerous Wednesday and beyond. Brief heavy rainfall as well as gusty and erratic winds will be favored today through Tuesday, then more widespread wetting and potentially heavy precipitation is expected thereafter. Storms will favor areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain most days, but all areas will be in play Fri/Sat. Storms will move toward the west today around 5 to 15 mph, and toward the southwest on Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 94 64 92 / 20 30 30 40 Dulce........................... 53 90 52 86 / 20 40 40 70 Cuba............................ 58 86 57 82 / 20 40 30 60 Gallup.......................... 60 89 58 87 / 5 40 40 60 El Morro........................ 58 83 57 81 / 5 40 30 80 Grants.......................... 59 87 57 84 / 0 30 30 60 Quemado......................... 58 86 58 82 / 10 30 20 80 Magdalena....................... 63 85 62 81 / 5 5 20 50 Datil........................... 58 83 58 79 / 5 20 20 70 Reserve......................... 55 89 55 85 / 20 30 30 80 Glenwood........................ 56 90 56 88 / 40 50 40 80 Chama........................... 50 83 49 79 / 30 30 40 70 Los Alamos...................... 63 82 62 78 / 5 30 20 60 Pecos........................... 54 83 54 79 / 10 60 20 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 83 54 79 / 10 50 20 60 Red River....................... 46 73 46 69 / 10 50 20 70 Angel Fire...................... 41 76 41 73 / 10 40 20 70 Taos............................ 54 85 53 81 / 10 40 20 60 Mora............................ 51 78 51 73 / 5 40 30 80 Espanola........................ 63 91 61 87 / 5 30 20 50 Santa Fe........................ 60 84 60 80 / 5 60 30 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 87 58 83 / 5 40 20 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 91 63 86 / 0 30 20 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 92 67 87 / 0 20 20 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 93 65 89 / 0 20 20 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 92 66 88 / 5 20 20 40 Belen........................... 63 95 63 90 / 0 10 10 40 Bernalillo...................... 66 93 65 89 / 5 20 20 50 Bosque Farms.................... 61 93 62 88 / 0 10 20 50 Corrales........................ 66 93 65 89 / 5 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 62 93 63 89 / 0 10 10 40 Placitas........................ 67 88 66 84 / 5 30 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 67 92 66 88 / 5 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 69 95 68 91 / 5 5 10 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 60 80 / 0 40 30 60 Tijeras......................... 59 87 60 82 / 0 30 20 60 Edgewood........................ 58 85 58 81 / 0 30 20 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 87 54 83 / 0 20 20 50 Clines Corners.................. 55 82 55 78 / 5 20 20 60 Mountainair..................... 57 86 58 82 / 0 10 10 50 Gran Quivira.................... 57 85 58 81 / 0 5 10 50 Carrizozo....................... 62 88 63 84 / 5 10 10 40 Ruidoso......................... 56 79 55 75 / 10 10 10 50 Capulin......................... 54 81 54 78 / 0 10 10 20 Raton........................... 55 86 54 83 / 0 20 10 20 Springer........................ 55 87 55 83 / 0 20 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 55 81 54 78 / 10 20 20 70 Clayton......................... 61 88 60 86 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 59 83 58 80 / 5 10 20 20 Conchas......................... 64 91 63 89 / 0 5 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 62 88 62 84 / 0 5 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 64 92 63 90 / 0 5 5 10 Clovis.......................... 62 89 62 86 / 5 5 5 10 Portales........................ 63 91 62 90 / 5 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 64 91 64 88 / 5 5 10 20 Roswell......................... 67 92 66 88 / 20 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 61 86 60 82 / 20 10 20 30 Elk............................. 57 81 56 78 / 30 20 20 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.