textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

- Scattered showers will continue across western and central areas early this morning with briefly lower visibility. Patchy fog will also limit visibility at times along the central mountain chain and parts of southeast New Mexico.

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, bringing more showers, storms and high mountain snow.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 118 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Patchy light rain showers south and west of the ABQ metro early this morning will taper off thru sunrise. Lingering low clouds and patchy fog along the central mt chain and south of I-40 is also likely to diminish thru sunrise. The higher NBM probs for cigs <3,000 ft and visibilities <3 miles are focused mainly around Torrance and Lincoln counties.

Drier air will filter southward into northern and central NM this afternoon as the current upper level shortwave moves into southern NM. Just how much dry air arrives will dictate the coverage of showers and storms this afternoon. The higher terrain and areas south of I-40 have the highest chance and are projected to pick up localized wetting rainfall (>0.10"). The NBM inter-quartile spread is high for these low QPF amounts so overall forecast confidence is low. Otherwise, a nice day is in store for the vast majority of the area with warming temps, light winds, and decreasing humidity.

Tonight will be cool again with low temps close to normal for early May under clearing skies and light winds. Even warmer temps are in store Sunday with increasing high clouds and slightly stronger west to southwest winds.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 118 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

High clouds will increase further Sunday night with breezy west to southwest winds persisting along and east of the central mt chain. This will allow min temps to trend 5-10F warmer.

A shortwave ridge will crest over NM Monday ahead of the next moist Pacific storm system. A 85-95kt subtropical jet will approach from the southwest with widespread mid and high level clouds Monday afternoon. A ~994mb surface low over northeast NM will help to increase west winds but their strength may be limited by weaker mixing from mostly cloudy skies. The latest NBM 50th percentile wind gusts are in the 25-35 mph range around the high terrain and much of eastern NM.

Top-down moistening will ramp up Monday night as a 110-130kt speed max approaches western NM ahead of the next Pacific wave. PWATs are shown rising to between 0.50 and 0.70" Tuesday morning. How the system evolves crossing NM looks similar to the most recent storm and the details will be complex to sort out. A well-defined closed low approaching from SoCal is shown opening up while the northern stream trough forces a shortwave south from the northern Rockies. The timing will determine whether any phasing can occur and where that occurs in the southern Rockies will be tricky. A backdoor cold front may also enter northeast NM during this time. For now, the higher PoPs and QPF are relegated to northeast NM and southwest NM Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Light rain showers, icing, mt obscurations, and high level turb over the southwest quarter of NM this morning will dissipate after sunrise. Patchy MVFR low cigs farther north to the I-40 corridor will also erode after sunrise. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TS will redevelop quickly before noon in the high terrain then move slowly south with brief rain and gusty winds. Dry air filtering south into NM by late afternoon will clear all activity by sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for the next 7 days. Wetting rainfall occurred along and east of the central mt chain the past 24-36 hours with patchy areas from the Rio Grande Valley west to the Continental Divide. Showers may redevelop in the higher terrain today (30-60% chance) then possibly parts of western NM Sunday (10-20% chance). ERCs are also forecast to fall near or below average in most areas thru the middle of next week with a lack of significant drying expected. The one day to watch will be Monday as stronger southwest winds have a low chance to coincide with min humidity values near 15%. Thicker clouds moving into the area ahead of the next Pacific system may limit winds and mitigate critical conditions. Rain and high terrain snow chances increase again Tuesday and Wednesday with below normal temps as the Pacific system crosses the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 71 41 75 46 / 5 0 5 20 Dulce........................... 66 30 70 35 / 20 5 10 20 Cuba............................ 62 34 68 40 / 30 10 20 20 Gallup.......................... 67 33 73 38 / 20 5 10 20 El Morro........................ 60 35 69 41 / 30 10 20 20 Grants.......................... 63 32 71 38 / 30 10 20 20 Quemado......................... 62 37 69 43 / 30 10 10 10 Magdalena....................... 59 41 68 48 / 30 20 20 20 Datil........................... 57 37 65 44 / 60 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 66 35 72 41 / 40 20 10 5 Glenwood........................ 71 39 77 45 / 40 20 5 5 Chama........................... 58 29 63 34 / 20 10 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 58 41 66 46 / 30 10 10 20 Pecos........................... 59 34 67 41 / 30 10 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 33 64 38 / 20 5 10 20 Red River....................... 48 27 55 33 / 20 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 53 22 61 29 / 20 10 10 20 Taos............................ 61 29 68 35 / 20 10 10 20 Mora............................ 56 30 65 38 / 20 10 10 10 Espanola........................ 66 38 73 43 / 20 10 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 39 67 45 / 30 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 37 71 43 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 45 72 51 / 20 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 44 74 50 / 20 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 45 76 48 / 20 10 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 44 75 51 / 20 10 10 20 Belen........................... 69 39 75 46 / 20 10 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 68 43 75 49 / 20 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 68 40 76 44 / 20 10 10 20 Corrales........................ 68 43 76 49 / 20 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 68 40 75 46 / 20 10 10 20 Placitas........................ 64 43 71 50 / 20 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 44 75 50 / 20 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 68 44 76 51 / 30 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 40 67 46 / 30 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 61 40 69 46 / 30 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 61 35 69 42 / 20 10 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 29 71 38 / 20 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 58 36 67 43 / 20 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 60 36 68 44 / 30 20 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 59 37 67 45 / 40 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 60 43 68 52 / 40 20 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 52 38 63 49 / 60 20 5 10 Capulin......................... 60 33 68 38 / 10 5 5 5 Raton........................... 64 32 74 36 / 10 5 5 5 Springer........................ 65 31 74 37 / 10 5 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 59 33 69 42 / 20 10 5 5 Clayton......................... 68 43 77 48 / 5 0 5 5 Roy............................. 63 37 72 44 / 10 5 5 5 Conchas......................... 69 40 79 49 / 10 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 39 74 50 / 10 5 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 43 81 52 / 5 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 68 43 76 52 / 5 5 0 5 Portales........................ 70 42 77 52 / 10 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 67 39 77 48 / 10 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 66 45 78 52 / 10 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 60 39 72 51 / 30 10 5 5 Elk............................. 57 36 71 47 / 30 20 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.