textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days.

- Gusty and erratic winds and small hail will accompany isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Tuesday, with more widespread storms likely later in the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

An upper high remains in place over the upper Midwest, with dry air underneath the high and moisture rotating around it. Some of this dry air will be advected in from the northeast today, decreasing the overall coverage of showers and storms from the northeast plains southwestward to the Rio Grande Valley. As a result, coverage today will focus in the southeastern plains and in the northwest high terrain. Severe weather is unlikely given the lack of shear and modest instability, but gusty and erratic outflow winds can be expected as always.

The overall pattern remains largely unchanged going into Tuesday, but the dry slot will migrate off to the southeast. This will increase the coverage of storms in central NM, including during the evening hours as as a shortwave treks across the northern half of the state from northeast to southwest. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will generally be within 5 degrees of seasonal averages, with slightly above temps across the northwest and slightly below average temps in the southeast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A more active monsoon pattern is on tap for the second half of the workweek into the weekend. Temperatures will be quite pleasant for the middle of the summer with highs in the 80s and low 90s in most areas. Plus, daily rounds of showers and storms will help to cool things off in the afternoons and evenings. Storms will continue to focus over the western half of the state on Wednesday and Thursday as an easterly wave approaches. Dry air and subsidence out ahead of the wave will supress convective activity across the eastern plains during this period, despite the 1"+ PWATs. The easterly wave is progged to stall out over New Mexico Friday into Saturday, increasing the coverage of light to moderate showers beyond the afternoon hours and into the overnight. This along with more extensive cloud cover may inhibit storms during the afternoon hours, but the moist atmosphere will be able to support widespread showers and storms with efficient rainfall rates.

The monsoon high will redevelop over the Four Corners this weekend, recycling moisture each day. All ensemble systems have the high drifting south and centering itself over New Mexico early next week. The gradual intensification of the high will likely bring temps back up to near seasonal normals.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Other than an isolated shower across the Northwest Plateau and in the southeast, dry conditions with clearing skies will prevail through the night. Scattered showers Monday afternoon will favor the northern and northwest high terrain as well as the southeast plains. A dry slot over the central portion of the state will keep much of this area dry. Given the easterly blow aloft, another strong breeze is likely in the evening through the gaps of the central mountain chain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. Isolated to scattered storms will favor northwest and southeastern areas today. Overall intensity of these storms will be relatively low, with localized gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph the primary hazard. Storm coverage trends up slightly Tuesday into Wednesday, with activity focusing over the western high terrain. Easterly flow will remain over New Mexico late week, with rain chances will continuing to trend higher as an easterly wave advects in more moisture. Wetting rain chances will be high for the western half of the state, with lower chances in the eastern plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 97 66 96 66 / 20 20 20 30 Dulce........................... 93 51 92 50 / 40 30 30 50 Cuba............................ 87 58 86 56 / 20 20 50 30 Gallup.......................... 91 57 90 55 / 20 10 20 50 El Morro........................ 87 57 85 57 / 5 5 30 40 Grants.......................... 90 58 89 57 / 10 5 20 40 Quemado......................... 88 58 86 58 / 10 10 20 40 Magdalena....................... 86 62 86 63 / 20 5 10 30 Datil........................... 83 59 83 59 / 10 0 20 30 Reserve......................... 91 55 90 56 / 30 20 30 40 Glenwood........................ 93 57 92 57 / 40 20 50 40 Chama........................... 85 49 84 48 / 40 30 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 86 63 85 62 / 10 10 30 20 Pecos........................... 84 54 83 54 / 30 10 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 55 84 54 / 50 20 50 10 Red River....................... 76 46 74 45 / 50 20 40 5 Angel Fire...................... 79 41 78 40 / 40 20 40 10 Taos............................ 87 51 86 51 / 30 20 40 20 Mora............................ 81 52 80 51 / 30 20 40 20 Espanola........................ 93 61 92 59 / 20 10 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 86 61 84 60 / 40 5 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 59 88 58 / 20 5 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 67 92 66 / 5 5 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 64 93 64 / 5 5 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 64 95 63 / 5 5 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 67 94 66 / 5 5 20 30 Belen........................... 95 63 95 63 / 5 5 10 30 Bernalillo...................... 95 66 95 65 / 5 5 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 95 61 94 61 / 5 5 20 30 Corrales........................ 96 66 95 65 / 5 5 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 95 63 94 63 / 5 5 10 30 Placitas........................ 91 66 90 65 / 10 5 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 95 66 94 65 / 5 5 20 30 Socorro......................... 97 68 96 69 / 10 5 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 60 86 59 / 5 5 30 30 Tijeras......................... 88 60 88 60 / 5 5 30 30 Edgewood........................ 88 56 87 56 / 10 5 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 52 88 52 / 5 5 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 82 55 / 0 0 10 30 Mountainair..................... 87 56 87 56 / 5 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 85 57 85 57 / 5 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 87 61 88 61 / 10 10 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 78 54 79 55 / 20 20 30 5 Capulin......................... 82 54 81 53 / 5 5 10 5 Raton........................... 87 54 86 53 / 0 20 20 5 Springer........................ 88 55 86 55 / 0 10 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 83 55 82 55 / 10 10 30 20 Clayton......................... 88 61 88 60 / 0 5 5 5 Roy............................. 84 59 83 58 / 0 20 10 20 Conchas......................... 92 64 91 63 / 10 20 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 86 61 87 61 / 10 10 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 91 64 91 63 / 10 10 10 10 Clovis.......................... 89 63 90 62 / 20 20 20 10 Portales........................ 90 63 90 62 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 90 64 90 63 / 20 5 10 20 Roswell......................... 90 66 91 66 / 20 20 30 10 Picacho......................... 85 60 86 60 / 20 20 30 20 Elk............................. 82 56 83 56 / 30 20 40 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.