textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 356 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - Thunderstorm activity will favor the high terrain through this evening, then along and east of the central mountain chain on Friday. There is a moderate risk of heavy rainfall on recent burn scars Friday near Ruidoso.

- A moderate heat risk remains for lower elevation areas of western and central NM each day where highs will regularly flirt with 100F. This risk returns to eastern NM this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 356 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Quick update to increase forecast PoPs through the evening as storm coverage is higher than what was previously forecast. Storms through the evening will remain capable of small hail and gusty outflow winds. Updates out shortly.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Minor upper level ridging continues over NM this afternoon underneath a strong upper level jet traversing the northern half of CONUS. The backdoor front that pushed through early this morning has begun to rest up against the central mountain chain, and we should begin to see cumulus, and soon thereafter, storm development. The lower levels are still fairly dry given current RH observations and model/observed soundings, so not expecting very efficient rainfall rates from any developing thunderstorms across the high terrain. This leaves a low risk of flash flooding near burn scars across the southern half of the state. Additional storm development looks likely across the Gila Mountains in southwest NM, with roughly the same atmospheric conditions limiting efficient rainfall. Forecast soundings do look more promising for strong outflow winds eclipsing 40mph in that area this afternoon and early evening. Going along with outflows, light showers look to form across the eastern Sandia Mountains early this evening which are likely to produce a breezy, consistent southeast wind throughout the ABQ metro area. Wind speeds don't seem likely to get above 35mph, but these outflows are forecast to be consistent through about 10pm.

It will also remain a hot one today west of the central mountains, with lower elevations forecast to get into the high 90s to near 100 again. Most areas will be near to almost 10F above average, except for areas that got hit with the backdoor front. This translates to a moderate to locally major heat risk for the Rio Grande Valley and northwest areas this afternoon and evening, so folks should continue to stay hydrated and take breaks if outside for a long time.

Friday looks to be a similar day, outside of no backdoor front. The moisture from today's front remains in eastern NM, providing early morning low clouds and the moisture source for additional orographic thunderstorms. East to southeast upslope flow provides the trigger mechanism for the thunderstorm development, and with weak upper level flow, storms should drift off to the east and southeast off of the high terrain. There is a low chance a few storms could congeal into a broken line as they move off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to a slight increase in bulk shear, but there is not high confidence in this occurring. The Sacramento Mountain burn scars have a low to moderate threat of flash flooding, mainly due to the increased atmospheric moisture. However, confidence is not high in rainfall rates efficient enough to produce flash flooding to hoist a Flood Watch. Temperatures rebound ever so slightly in eastern NM while remaining much of the same west of the central mountain chain. Thus, additional areas of moderate to locally major heat risk exist for the Rio Grande Valley and northwest areas again, including ABQ and Farmington.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Upper level westerly flow begins to overtake the area Saturday, continuing to decrease the moisture content in the already dry west parts of NM. Additionally, a surface low is expected to form over portions of southeast CO and northeast NM during the afternoon. The combination of these will result in gusty west to southwest winds across the northern third of the state, along with very dry conditions. In turn, temperatures also increase once again, mainly across eastern NM while remaining stagnant across western and central NM. One part of this forecast that is uncertain is the potential for a dryline thunderstorm setup across eastern NM Saturday. The Canadian model is most bullish on this setup, though also begins Saturday morning with much higher RH values across eastern NM and does not develop the surface low as far south. Nonetheless, there is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to form off the dryline as most models are showing a rather sharp dewpoint gradient.

Sunday looks to be quite dry and hot with temperatures in the low 100s across the lower elevations of the state. A few breezes here and there will interrupt an otherwise hot day. A backdoor front looks to enter into northeast NM Sunday night into Monday, alongside the low chances at storms clipping Union County. This backdoor front looks to replenish the moisture across eastern NM for Monday. Northwest flow looks to set up across the state as well, setting up another chance for a few strong to severe storms to roll off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the afternoon and evening of Monday and Tuesday. As we progress further into the week, there's a strong signal for the first true Monsoon high to build over western NM and eastern AZ. The most recent model suite has increased the daily precipitation across northeast and eastern NM alongside the building high, so this will be a trend that needs to be watched.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A backdoor front continues to produce northerly winds across eastern NM as of 18z. Gusts may peak up to 40kts during the early afternoon. Winds look to subside gradually throughout the day, but remain north to east through the evening and early overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of the central mountain chain and in the Gila Mountains this afternoon, mainly after 20z. A few outflow winds around 40kts may occur near these thunderstorms. Additional development is likely closer to the Sandia Mountains later in the afternoon, close to 23-00z. This activity looks to produce gusty southeast outflows to KAEG and KABQ after 00z. Winds and outflows should subside for all sites in the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings are increasingly likely for southeast NM overnight and early tomorrow morning for KCVN and KROW. Confidence was high enough for a TEMPO group of MVFR ceilings at KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Hot temperatures continue in the lower elevation areas (outside of northeast NM behind the front earlier today) with thunderstorms across the higher elevations, mainly along the central mountain chain and the southwest mountains. Much of the same is expected for Friday, though with a slightly higher chance of wetting precipitation across the central mountain chain with little to no chance of storms forming across the southwest mountains. Moving into the weekend, dry conditions enter western NM, and a surface low looks to create breezy conditions across northeast NM. Elevated to near critical conditions are expected for most areas along and north of I-40 mainly for very low RH (west of I-25) and breezy to strong winds (east of I-25). The best overlap and highest chances for critical fire weather conditions on Saturday looks to be in the Upper Rio Grande Valley near Taos. Single digit RH looks to continue on Sunday with above average temperatures, but overall light winds should limit any critical fire weather conditions. Storm chances return to eastern NM Monday and Tuesday, with the first rendition of the Monsoon high forming over the area in the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 61 96 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 93 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 91 59 89 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 54 91 52 89 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 88 55 86 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 92 57 91 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 88 54 90 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 62 89 64 92 / 20 5 5 0 Datil........................... 58 86 58 88 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 93 49 92 / 20 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 96 54 96 / 20 0 0 0 Chama........................... 48 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 62 88 65 89 / 5 30 5 0 Pecos........................... 53 89 56 89 / 20 20 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 86 57 86 / 10 10 5 0 Red River....................... 46 78 47 77 / 10 20 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 44 81 45 81 / 10 30 10 0 Taos............................ 53 89 54 89 / 5 10 5 0 Mora............................ 52 85 53 87 / 10 40 10 10 Espanola........................ 59 95 62 96 / 5 20 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 90 64 89 / 10 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 93 61 93 / 10 5 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 96 72 96 / 10 0 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 98 68 97 / 10 0 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 100 68 100 / 10 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 97 70 97 / 10 0 5 0 Belen........................... 62 99 66 100 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 99 69 98 / 10 0 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 98 65 99 / 10 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 65 99 69 98 / 10 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 98 66 99 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 95 69 95 / 10 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 98 69 97 / 10 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 67 100 71 102 / 20 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 91 64 91 / 20 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 59 92 64 92 / 20 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 56 93 61 93 / 20 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 94 58 94 / 20 10 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 89 57 89 / 20 20 20 0 Mountainair..................... 55 92 60 93 / 20 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 91 61 92 / 20 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 93 66 95 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 57 84 60 87 / 20 50 5 5 Capulin......................... 49 83 52 88 / 20 30 10 10 Raton........................... 51 87 53 92 / 30 30 10 10 Springer........................ 53 87 55 93 / 30 30 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 54 86 56 90 / 10 40 10 0 Clayton......................... 55 85 60 93 / 5 10 10 5 Roy............................. 54 83 58 92 / 10 20 10 5 Conchas......................... 58 92 62 100 / 0 10 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 57 89 61 96 / 5 30 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 59 91 64 99 / 5 5 20 0 Clovis.......................... 59 89 63 96 / 10 5 30 5 Portales........................ 59 90 63 97 / 10 5 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 60 92 64 98 / 5 5 20 5 Roswell......................... 64 94 67 101 / 10 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 60 90 62 96 / 10 40 5 20 Elk............................. 57 88 59 94 / 10 60 5 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.