textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 412 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico over the next week as a few backdoor cold fronts push through the area. The biggest drop in temperatures is expected Friday and Saturday.

- Chances of precipitation return with a cold front Friday into the weekend, with increasing potential for winter weather impacts.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1250 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The next in what seems like a never ending series of backdoor cold fronts is currently pressing into northeast NM early this morning. The front will continue to sag southward through the morning hours, and will weakly press through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain bringing an east (southeast) canyon winds to Albuquerque (Santa Fe) by sunrise. Low clouds will develop behind the front across portions of eastern NM. Thus, between the cold air advection and the lack of sunshine through at least early afternoon, high temperatures across the eastern plains will struggle to get out of the 30s. Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday across the Rio Grande Valley due the front weakly pushing in, but little change in temperatures are expected across western NM. A secondary peak in canyon winds in the Rio Grande Valley will occur this evening, but winds both this morning and this evening will be rather light overall with max gusts near 20-25 mph.

Surface winds will veer around to the southwest by Tuesday morning, but low temps in the teens will be common. However, by Tuesday afternoon, a deepening lee side surface low over SE CO will increase west to southwest winds across east central NM. Gusts near 25 to 35 mph are expected near the I-40 corridor. Downsloping will allow temperatures to increase back into the 50s and low 60s, just cooler than what high temperatures were yesterday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1250 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Models are in much better agreement early this morning regarding the timing of cold fronts in the extended, with one massive change which we'll talk about below. But first, on Wednesday, models now agree that a weak cold front will push southward through the eastern plains Wednesday morning. This will cool temperatures only slightly across NE NM as the front will wash out quickly, and southerly winds return to the area by mid afternoon. Meanwhile, at upper levels, the amplified pattern, with a strong upper high across the west coast and a large, deep trough across the central and eastern U.S. will begin to de-amplify. The persistent northwesterly flow aloft over NM will finally turn westerly by Thursday. Thus, both Wednesday and Thursday should be quite nice with generally light winds (even with Wednesday's front) and highs near to just above normal areawide.

The big changes come late Thursday and Friday. An Arctic airmass is poised to invade the northern Great Plains Thursday afternoon and this Arctic airmass will continue to press southward across the Great Plains through Friday. Operational models are showing an impressive 1050-1052mb surface high sliding down the Great Plains which will push the Arctic front south and west through eastern NM. The leading edge of the front should arrive Thursday evening across NE NM before it quickly presses through the plains Thursday night with cold air advection continuing through Friday. Thus, high temperatures on Friday have been massively reduced across eastern NM and if models continue to show that strong of a surface high, it's very likely that high temperatures will be reduced further with highs not making it out of the 20s. It appears the cold air will remain entrenched across at least eastern NM on Saturday and again, current forecast temperatures may be reduced in subsequent forecasts.

Meanwhile, at upper levels, we continue to watch the progression of a Pacific low. Generally speaking, confidence remains low on how fast the low will eject eastward, whether it will open into a wave, and whether it will phase with a northern stream trough sliding down from the PacNW. What we do know, is that ensemble clusters are favoring a faster progression eastward which would bring moisture and lift to portions of NM by Friday afternoon. This may present a problem across eastern NM in terms of precipitation type. With the Arctic airmass in place by Friday afternoon and evening, and warm, moist south to southwest flow aloft, isentropic lift may bring a wintry mix of precipitation to at least the southeast plains. Isentropic lift is currently progged to be greatest Friday night and early Saturday and the warm nose on forecast soundings is currently around 1-2 degC around the Clovis to Roswell area. Thus, there may be a 6 to 12 hour period where this area could see sleet and/or freezing rain before the cold air is deep enough and it all changes over to snow. Of course, a lot of things have to fall into place just right for mixed winter precipitation types to happen (frontal timing, timing of upper low, etc), but there is at least a low chance that it could all come together for a wintry mix for southeast NM. Further north across eastern NM, snow would be the dominant precipitation type and across western and central areas, rain and snow would prevail. Precipitation may linger through the weekend if the trough or closed low remains west of the area but the chances of a wintry mix decrease substantially.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

IFR cigs are quickly expanding across far northeast NM behind a cold front. IFR to MVFR cigs should impact most areas from the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns eastward to the OK/TX border and southward to the I-40 corridor by mid morning. These low cigs will slowly erode during the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, high clouds will continue to pass overhead today. The cold front is now draped from the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to KCQC to K4MR and occasional gusts near 20kt have been noted along and behind it. The front will continue to sag south and westward this morning, bringing a weak gap wind to KSAF and KABQ around sunrise. The gap wind will weaken a bit this afternoon, but will return this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. Main fire weather concern will be widespread poor ventilation rates, though there will be pockets of short duration fair to good ventilation. Temperatures will continue to oscillate across eastern NM with periodic frontal intrusions, the strongest of which is expected Friday. Temperature fluctuations across western NM will be minimal in comparison. Chances are increasing for precipitation to impact the Land of Enchantment Friday into the weekend. While rain and snow will prevail across central and western NM, there is concern for a wintry mix across portions of eastern NM Friday night into Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 21 45 19 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 50 14 48 11 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 47 18 47 17 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 51 13 50 12 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 21 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 53 15 53 14 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 20 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 52 25 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 53 23 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 63 21 60 19 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 66 24 63 22 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 14 43 14 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 42 23 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 39 18 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 19 45 19 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 34 14 38 15 / 5 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 37 5 43 8 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 45 11 48 12 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 16 52 20 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 50 16 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 43 22 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 19 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 27 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 24 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 21 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 24 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 53 18 52 18 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 24 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 53 19 52 18 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 23 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 53 20 52 19 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 48 26 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 22 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 44 24 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 42 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 12 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 17 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 42 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 19 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 24 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 22 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 32 14 52 15 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 11 53 14 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 10 56 14 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 34 15 54 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 21 57 21 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 33 14 53 18 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 16 61 20 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 17 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 39 16 59 20 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 18 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 15 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 40 14 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 49 19 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 45 20 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 18 61 25 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.