textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- The risk of rapid fire spread will expand to more of western and central New Mexico today as northwest winds strengthen and humidities plummet into the single-digits.

- Hazardous heat is forecast in the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley this afternoon, and also across the east-central and southeast plains, as high temperatures challenge daily records.

- Thursday and Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase the risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and erratic wind gusts with localized blowing dust. The best chance for wetting precip will be along and east of the central mountain chain, with a low risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Northwest wind gusts will peak in the 30-45 mph range today across the southeast two thirds of the forecast area, while temperatures climb near and above daily records. The heat will become hazardous this afternoon in the central valley as readings peak in the low to mid 100s from Albuquerque southward, and also across the east central and southeast plains. Dangerous heat is forecast in Roswell, where the mercury should reach around 110 F. Will continue the Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warning that were already in effect for parts of central and eastern NM, and expand the coverage to include Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt Counties. The day shift may opt to add De Baca County as well when the latest forecast guidance arrives. Meanwhile, coupled with the strong winds will be a few to 12 hours of single-digit humidity in most lower elevation locations. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast over western parts of the forecast area today, and over central areas west of Santa Rosa, too. An area with less wind today will be east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where winds will veer from out of the north, to out of the east, to out of the southeast and south as the day progresses. However, it will still be hot there with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s.

There is a 15-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the southwest mountains including Glenwood and Reserve, where a weak upper level trough moving inland over southern CA will steer some elevated subtropical moisture. Some of these cells will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts to 45 mph and blowing dust with little or no rainfall reaching the surface. High res models also depict gusty virga showers developing over the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, then shifting southeastward over the far northeast highlands. These are forecast to send a broad gust front with a 30 mph to potentially 45 mph northwesterly wind shift across most of northeast NM between 7-10 PM, including Raton, Las Vegas, Roy, and eventually Clayton and Conchas.

The extreme heat will be shortlived, since a moist backdoor front will dive south southwestward through the eastern plains late tonight and Thursday morning, then westward into the central valley with a gusty east canyon wind late Thursday afternoon and evening. With a ~ 1012 mb surface high pressure system on the Great Plains propagating it, the front is likely to produce wind gusts up to 50 mph on the eastern plains late tonight through much of Thursday morning. At this time, models suggest east canyon wind gusts in the central valley Thursday night will peak around 25 to 35 mph from Santa Fe southward. However, the gap wind could blow in stronger with expected enhancement from gusty thunderstorm outflow.

The low level moisture increase with the front, and modest amounts of elevated subtropical moisture streaming over the forecast area from the southwest with the approaching upper level trough, should enable isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday afternoon and evening along and southeast of the central mountain chain, and along and south of a line from Gallup to Albuquerque. It will probably be too stable behind the front for any showers and thunderstorms Thursday from Tucumcari northward. There should be quite a few gusty virga showers along and west of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon and evening, with some dry lightning in the mix. Wetting showers and storms look to favor areas along and just east of the central mountain chain, as well as the southeast plains.

After high temperatures around 4 to 16 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today, readings will fall a few to 22 degrees on Thursday behind the front, leaving eastern areas as much as 12 degrees below average Thursday afternoon. Western highs will still be a few to 7 degrees above average Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A southeasterly return flow of low-level moisture will continue over eastern areas Thursday night and Friday, then the upper level trough will finally pass overhead on Friday and Friday evening producing scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain; except for numerous cells over and just east of the south-central and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Some isolated convection is also forecast over the central valley, northwest mountains, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, west central areas, and southwest areas, in the form of gusty virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. There may be some small wetting footprints in the Jemez Mountains and Sandia and Manzano Mountains. PWATs look to peak Friday around 1 inch across the eastern plains, and over the south-central mountains where there will be a low risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars.

On Saturday, in the wake of the upper trough, a significant downtick in thunderstorm coverage is expected. However, the latest operational runs of the the GFS, Canadian, and European Models indicate enough moisture will linger for some isolated and light showers and thunderstorms to redevelop along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening. Scattered cells will be possible over the southeast plains, where the best moisture will persist. A drier upper level trough moving into the western US will begin to steer significantly drier air over NM by Saturday afternoon, then probably over the eastern plains as well on Sunday. Models vary on how far south the upper trough will dig, and thus how strong dry southwest winds will become across western NM on Saturday, and over more of the forecast area on Sunday. There could be an increase in fire weather concerns this weekend if the winds get strong enough, because humidities are forecast to plummet into the single digits. The drier air Saturday and Sunday should enable high temperatures to climb a few to several degrees above average.

Models now differ on when a moist backdoor cold front will plunge southwestward through the eastern plains Sunday night, and potentially into the central valley by Monday morning. Some models suggest the front will reach eastern NM as early as Sunday. By Monday, there should be plenty of moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain, with some drier and gustier cells possible as far west as the east slopes of the western mountains. Persistent Gulf moisture return Monday night, and an upper level trough that will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft on Tuesday, should enable an uptick in thunderstorm coverage mainly over central and eastern areas Tuesday afternoon, when some storms will probably turn severe.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A strong NW breeze will prevail this afternoon in most areas, with the strongest gusts (upwards of 40 kts) focusing over northwest NM. A few showers and storms may develop in far SW NM this afternoon and evening, creating gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts.

Gusty NW winds just off the sfc will trend stronger this evening, creating LLWS throughout west, central, and southeast NM between 06Z and 12Z. These gusty winds may intermittently mix down all the way to the sfc.

A strong backdoor cold front will push in from the northeast late tonight around 09Z, pushing southward through the morning into the afternoon. Strong northerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts are likely in the eastern plains, peaking during the late morning hours tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will become widespread across western parts of the fire weather forecast area today, and over central areas west of Santa Rosa, as northwest wind gust peak in the 35 to 45 mph range. Abundant sunshine will enable deep atmospheric mixing between 14-18K feet today, and high temperatures near and above daily records, with several hours of single-digit minimum humidity over central and western areas. With this forecast package we added the West Central Basin and Range to the ongoing Red Flag Warning due to stronger flow aloft forecast there, as well as ongoing nearby wildfire activity. Poor humidity recovery is forecast over central and western areas again tonight. A gusty and moist backdoor cold front will then produce north and northeast wind gusts up to 50 mph across the eastern plains late tonight through Thursday morning, and east canyon wind gusts from 25-35 mph in the central valley from Santa Fe southward late Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the main fire weather concerns Thursday through Friday will be erratic thunderstorm outflows and the risk of dry lightning. This concern may linger along and east of the central mountain chain on Saturday. The latest model runs suggests elevated fire weather conditions will develop Saturday over western and central areas due to strengthening hot, dry, and unstable southwest flow. Models now show less wind for Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 99 61 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 95 50 94 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 57 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 94 57 93 55 / 0 0 5 5 El Morro........................ 90 57 88 56 / 0 0 5 10 Grants.......................... 95 59 93 55 / 0 0 10 5 Quemado......................... 90 60 87 56 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 92 66 90 62 / 0 5 10 10 Datil........................... 88 62 86 58 / 0 0 20 30 Reserve......................... 94 51 91 49 / 40 20 20 5 Glenwood........................ 97 55 95 53 / 40 20 40 10 Chama........................... 88 49 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 92 65 89 62 / 0 0 10 5 Pecos........................... 93 59 91 54 / 0 0 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 90 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 81 48 77 46 / 0 0 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 84 43 82 41 / 0 0 10 5 Taos............................ 93 55 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 91 56 84 51 / 0 0 20 5 Espanola........................ 99 63 97 61 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 93 61 91 59 / 0 0 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 97 59 94 57 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 70 99 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 68 98 66 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 65 101 63 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 67 100 65 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 101 67 100 63 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 99 66 101 63 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 99 64 99 61 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 100 67 101 64 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 100 65 99 61 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 97 67 96 65 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 99 68 99 65 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 102 74 101 68 / 0 5 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 63 92 59 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 95 64 93 60 / 0 0 5 10 Edgewood........................ 96 63 91 57 / 0 0 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 59 93 53 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 92 60 86 54 / 0 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 97 63 92 57 / 0 0 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 95 63 91 57 / 0 0 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 99 67 95 63 / 0 0 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 90 62 87 56 / 0 0 30 20 Capulin......................... 92 53 75 50 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 98 54 84 50 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 97 56 84 52 / 0 5 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 95 59 85 54 / 0 0 5 5 Clayton......................... 99 61 78 56 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 96 60 78 54 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 102 63 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 100 66 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 105 65 83 61 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 103 65 83 61 / 0 0 5 10 Portales........................ 104 66 89 62 / 0 0 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 103 68 88 62 / 0 0 5 10 Roswell......................... 110 74 97 66 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 99 69 92 60 / 0 0 10 10 Elk............................. 97 66 89 57 / 0 0 30 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106- 109-120.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-234>236.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ124-125.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.