textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 831 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Record heat continues through today with a minor risk of heat- related illness for sensitive groups.

- Risk for rapid fire spread along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon. Dry lightning from virga and dry thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico this weekend may cause new fire starts.

- Hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles push across eastern New Mexico tonight before moving through the canyon gaps of the central mountain chain Friday. Areas of blowing dust will also reduce visibility tonight into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 831 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The backdoor cold front has surged thru Clayton as of 8pm with a nearly 30 degree temperature drop in just two hours. Blowing dust is increasing along the front with decreasing vsbys reported in the TX Panhandle. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include the area from near Abo Pass southward to gaps east of Socorro and the White Sands Missle Range. The HREF and RRFS prob wind gust >45mph is over 90% in this area. The latest LAVMOS has trended stronger for the east side of ABQ where sustained speeds of 40 to 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph may occur for several hours Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The center of high pressure is shifting eastward over Chihuahua today with very anomalously high geopotential heights that will keep record-breaking temperatures in place over much of MX and the American Southwest. A weak shortwave trough is orbiting the high and will be moving along the NM-CO border through the afternoon. This is ushering in a slightly stronger belt of westerly winds aloft with 20 to 30 kt at 700 mb, which is relatively subdued for this time of year. These will continue to translate to breezy to windy conditions down at the surface through the early evening, especially in the highlands of central to northeastern NM while the very dry conditions and low humidity present high fire danger.

Big temperature changes are on the way though, as a vast cyclone over eastern Canada sends a potent cold front spilling southward down the plains of the ConUS. This front will be driven by a stout 1042 mb surface high that will steer the front into northeastern NM before midnight and through the remainder of the plains and central zones overnight. Modest dewpoint rises and significant cold air advection will accompany the front with a nearly 10 mb surface pressure gradient establishing from the northeast corner of Union Co to the southeastern corner of Roosevelt county by 12Z Friday. This will invoke very high northerly winds with the potential for damaging gusts and blowing dust over our far eastern tier of counties, and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a Warning with a few Wind Advisories along adjacent zones/counties. In addition, the front will advance westward, spilling through gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain early Friday morning with a Wind Advisory in effect for the Upper Tularosa Basin and a High Wind Warning in effect for the (eastern) ABQ metro area. Winds will buffet the plains through mid afternoon Friday before starting to decrease in speed, but the gap/canyon winds may see a resurgence early Friday evening, so those statements are in effect for a few hours longer. Blowing dust and very poor to little visibility will be a high concern, especially since it is spring plowing season for many agricultural lands upstream in eastern CO and western KS. High temperatures on Friday will largely be in the 50's across the plains, 30 to 40 degrees cooler than today, but only 5 to 15 degrees below climatology which is quite remarkable given how far above average we have been running ahead of the front. In western zones, highs on Friday will be cooler, but still holding above normal.

Winds will slowly subside Friday night into early Saturday morning. Temperatures will be chilly with lots of 30's being common for overnight lows. However, readings will be very close to seasonal averages in central and eastern zones, and still above in western ones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

High pressure aloft stays over MX and TX through Saturday with surface winds veering south southwesterly in most zones. A lee-side surface trough will develop, and breezy to windy conditions will resume in northeastern zones. Split flow aloft will be found upstream over the eastern Pacific with the subtropical jet starting to gather some maritime moisture, and increases in mid level (500 mb) RH are modeled through the weekend. This will likely only translate to some virga showers over western NM Saturday, but a continued fetch of mid to high level moisture into Sunday along with better instability (LI's of 0 to -2 C) should yield isolated dry thunderstorms, mainly over western and northern tiers of the state. Forecast soundings reveal sharp inverted-V profiles, suggestive of large evaporative cooling potential from any hydrometeors with high DCAPE (600 to 1100 J/kg). These drier showers and storms will be hard pressed to produce more than just a few hundredths of an inch with gusty outflows likely presenting more impact. Temperatures will have climbed well above normal again in all zones by Sunday.

The upper high will weaken and push eastward over the Gulf and eventually the western Atlantic Monday through Tuesday, and this will open the door to more perturbed and still relatively moist southwesterly flow aloft. This will keep low chances (10 to 30%) for high-based showers and storms to continue feeding into mostly western and northern sections of NM with QPF still struggling to reach 0.10 inch. Copious mid to high level clouds will temper highs, but temperatures will still run 5 to 15 degrees above normal both days. Rain chances increase slightly into Wednesday as the flow turns a bit more westerly and a shortwave trough crosses just north of NM. A dry slot in the wake of the shortwave would then disrupt the mid to high level moisture stream, and less cloud cover with warmer temperatures would ensue Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Westerly wind gusts of 20-30KT will prevail thru sunset then relax thru the evening. A Center Weather Advisory is in place for turbulence over eastern NM until 7pm. A powerful cold front will then surge south thru eastern NM after midnight with north wind gusts of 40-50KT along the NM/TX border. Areas of BLDU may create brief MVFR to lcl IFR cigs/vsbys along and immediately behind the cold front thru sunrise Friday. The front will surge west into the RGV after 3am with east wind gusts of 35-45KT thru Friday afternoon from KABQ southward to Abo Pass and Carrizozo. An Airport Weather Warning will be issued at the Sunport with these winds. The front will also create periods of LLWS in its wake. Patchy low cigs are likely to develop from near KCVS to KROW and KSRR late Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

No changes are being made to the ongoing Red Flag Warning for this afternoon. Elevated to critical conditions will persist through the early evening due to stronger winds from a shortwave trough on the northern periphery of the upper high. Winds will settle this evening with RH increasing, and this will allow critical conditions to abate.

Winds will the surge up in speed tonight into Friday as a potent cold front spills in from the northeast. Modest increases in dewpoints and substantial cold air advection will preclude the issuance of any Red Flag statements, but the gusts will be of concern nonetheless with many areas reaching peaks of 40 to 60 mph in the eastern half of NM. Winds will slowly dwindle late Friday afternoon (first in the eastern plains) and then overnight (central gaps/canyons).

Temperatures will warm up this weekend, nearing or barely surpassing climatology on Saturday, and then easily exceeding normalcy by 10 to 20 degrees on Sunday. Lee-side surface troughing will induce breezy to windy conditions in northeastern NM, especially on Saturday where a couple of hours of spotty critical conditions are aligning. However, the bigger concerns will likely turn to Sunday when isolated dry thunderstorms will start to take shape in western and northern zones when faint mid level moisture arrives, posing new ignition threats.

This dry lightning threat could linger through the middle of next week as the subtropical jet continues to steer just enough moisture for virga and dry storms into the state, particularly western to central zones. Temperatures will stay above normal through this time frame with afternoon humidity commonly dropping to 10 to 30%, making it difficult for any soaking rainfall to transpire.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 43 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 34 75 29 73 / 0 10 0 5 Cuba............................ 40 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 33 76 35 77 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 36 68 33 73 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 32 69 31 74 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 38 73 35 76 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 45 63 34 69 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 41 65 32 72 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 36 81 34 77 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 40 86 38 79 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 37 68 29 66 / 0 10 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 49 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 39 59 29 68 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 64 31 68 / 0 5 0 10 Red River....................... 32 52 25 62 / 0 10 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 24 54 19 65 / 0 10 5 10 Taos............................ 35 66 27 70 / 0 5 0 10 Mora............................ 35 54 26 72 / 0 5 0 10 Espanola........................ 37 74 33 74 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 40 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 38 67 33 70 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 41 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 43 71 35 74 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 46 70 37 73 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 40 71 32 74 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 45 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 42 70 35 73 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 49 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 49 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 51 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 60 33 67 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 46 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 42 60 31 69 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 61 28 72 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 38 53 29 66 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 42 59 30 68 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 42 57 31 67 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 47 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 37 51 29 66 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 47 28 68 / 5 5 0 5 Raton........................... 35 56 26 74 / 5 5 0 5 Springer........................ 37 56 29 76 / 0 5 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 37 54 28 70 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 36 53 33 70 / 5 0 0 5 Roy............................. 37 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 43 58 36 76 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 43 57 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 57 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 41 53 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 42 54 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 43 56 36 70 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 51 58 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 44 53 35 70 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 40 53 31 70 / 0 5 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday for NMZ230-234>236.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Friday for NMZ227-231.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM MDT Friday for NMZ219.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM MDT Friday for NMZ220-224-225- 238.