textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring soaking rains to the Land of Enchantment today through Tuesday. - There is a moderate (60-70%) risk for flash flooding within and downstream of the South Fork, Salt and Seven Cabins burn scars this afternoon through tonight. There is a moderate (40-60%) risk on Tuesday.

- There is a low to moderate (20-40%) risk for severe thunderstorms across eastern NM Friday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

A Pacific low is moving east through central AZ and moisture advection is ramping up ahead of it across NM. The subtropical jetstream is active across the far eastern Pacific and into northern NM, putting portions of southern NM in the left entrance region and bringing enhanced ascent ahead of the approaching Pacific low. In addition, there is notable developing diffluence aloft, which will hold over the area through tonight. PWATs are still forecast to surge to near daily record values today and the 00Z KABQ upper air sounding will tell the tape. The result will be a fairly widespread soaking rain event, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms through the evening hours and favoring central NM. Multiple rounds of showers and storms producing short- lived downpours are already impacting the burn scars near Ruidoso and the flash flood threat will continue to increase into the early evening hours. The threat for flash flooding is low, but non-zero, elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to shift east overnight across eastern NM, with lightning activity trending down gradually. Elevated PWATs will remain over the area Tuesday and after some daytime heating another round of convection is forecast to take off. The latest NAM is particularly bullish on storms taking off over the west central mountains Tuesday afternoon, then moving east into the RGV late day impacting the I-25 corridor from Socorro north through Albuquerque and Santa Fe to Taos. Another round of storms is forecast to develop over the South Central Mountain Tuesday afternoon and move slowly east, producing locally heavy rainfall and bringing a renewed flash flood threat. Another Flash Flood Watch will likely be required for the South Central Mountains Tuesday, mainly for burn scar considerations. Storms will move out into eastern NM through Tuesday evening before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

A large and potent upper low over NV/CA will steer stronger southwest flow aloft and much drier air into western NM on Wed/Thu, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions during the afternoon and evening hours. Gulf moisture will remain across eastern NM and by Thursday afternoon, isolated storms are possible. The upper low will fill and eject east through the Great Basin Friday, steering dry westerlies further east across the state and bringing moisture convergence across eastern NM and a round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Low level easterly flow will transport moisture gradually westward across the area this weekend into early next week as an upper high slowly builds along the AZ/NM border, bringing daily rounds of daytime heating triggered convection. Next week is looking active, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of numerous showers and storms through this evening, where MVFR conditions are likely and short-lived IFR conditions are possible. Deterioration is forecast overnight, especially along/east of the central mountain chain. Mountain obscurations will become fairly widespread overnight as well. Thunderstorms are forecast to impact the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace between 20-00Z, with gusty/erratic wind likely in addition to short-lived MVFR conditions. Rain will persist overnight into Tuesday morning at KROW, where MVFR condtions are currently forecast but low probabilities for IFR exist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days. A fairly widespread wetting event is underway, with good chances for soaking rains as a Pacific low swings east across the region. Higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will linger through Tuesday, favoring central and eastern NM. Increasing southwest flow will dry-out western NM Wed/Thu, with breezy to locally windy conditions during the afternoons. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast Wed/Thu afternoons between the Continental Divide and the AZ border, but higher humidly and wetting rainfall today and tonight will lower ERCs and make the rapid fire spread a lower threat. Gulf moisture will remain across eastern NM Thu/Fri, leading good to excellent humidity recovery and chances for wetting storms. Moisture will transport westward across the state through the weekend and into early next week, leading to higher than normal humidity and chances for wetting storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 77 47 84 / 40 30 5 0 Dulce........................... 42 72 38 79 / 70 50 10 0 Cuba............................ 42 71 42 76 / 60 40 10 0 Gallup.......................... 40 74 39 80 / 50 20 5 0 El Morro........................ 42 71 41 78 / 80 20 10 0 Grants.......................... 41 75 40 81 / 70 20 10 0 Quemado......................... 43 73 41 78 / 70 10 5 0 Magdalena....................... 48 72 48 78 / 70 50 20 0 Datil........................... 44 70 44 77 / 70 20 10 0 Reserve......................... 40 79 39 80 / 30 10 5 0 Glenwood........................ 43 84 44 85 / 20 10 5 0 Chama........................... 40 66 37 73 / 70 60 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 50 68 49 75 / 60 60 30 5 Pecos........................... 44 67 42 75 / 70 50 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 66 43 73 / 50 70 30 20 Red River....................... 40 57 36 63 / 70 70 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 37 62 33 68 / 70 70 30 40 Taos............................ 46 69 41 76 / 60 50 30 10 Mora............................ 46 63 41 71 / 80 70 40 30 Espanola........................ 50 75 48 82 / 60 40 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 69 47 76 / 70 50 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 72 46 79 / 60 40 30 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 77 53 82 / 60 30 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 78 52 83 / 60 30 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 81 51 85 / 60 30 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 79 52 84 / 60 40 20 0 Belen........................... 48 80 49 85 / 60 40 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 52 79 51 84 / 60 30 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 80 48 85 / 60 40 20 0 Corrales........................ 51 80 51 84 / 60 40 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 80 48 85 / 60 40 20 0 Placitas........................ 53 74 52 81 / 60 40 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 79 52 84 / 60 40 20 0 Socorro......................... 54 82 54 86 / 60 60 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 71 47 77 / 70 40 30 0 Tijeras......................... 49 72 48 79 / 70 40 30 0 Edgewood........................ 48 71 44 79 / 70 50 30 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 72 40 80 / 70 50 30 0 Clines Corners.................. 46 66 44 75 / 70 50 40 5 Mountainair..................... 46 72 44 78 / 70 40 30 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 70 45 78 / 70 40 30 0 Carrizozo....................... 52 73 51 80 / 70 50 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 66 47 73 / 80 70 20 5 Capulin......................... 44 64 42 69 / 60 70 40 60 Raton........................... 46 68 44 74 / 60 70 20 40 Springer........................ 48 68 44 76 / 70 60 40 50 Las Vegas....................... 47 64 44 73 / 80 60 30 10 Clayton......................... 51 71 49 73 / 30 50 30 30 Roy............................. 49 66 47 74 / 70 70 40 10 Conchas......................... 53 73 51 82 / 80 70 40 5 Santa Rosa...................... 52 69 49 80 / 80 70 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 54 74 51 82 / 70 80 30 10 Clovis.......................... 54 72 51 81 / 90 80 30 5 Portales........................ 54 72 51 82 / 90 80 40 10 Fort Sumner..................... 53 73 51 82 / 90 70 30 5 Roswell......................... 58 75 55 86 / 80 50 20 5 Picacho......................... 52 72 48 82 / 80 70 20 10 Elk............................. 48 72 46 80 / 80 60 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.