textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase over northern and central New Mexico early next week. Strong and erratic downburst wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with the stronger cells.

- The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up beginning Sunday.

- Temperatures will rise mid to late next week resulting in moderate heat risk for lower elevation locations. Heat-illnesses will increase for those sensitive to heat, and those without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A seasonably to slightly above average hot Independence Day is expected across the Land of Enchantment with a 594 to 595 dam 500 mb monsoon high overhead. With the upper level westerlies retreating north, this will allow subtropical moisture to move north from Mexico into the state. This is indicated by higher PWATS around 0.3 to 0.5 inch across northern and central NM and around 0.6 to 1 inch across southern and eastern NM. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected across the Sacramento Mountains and southeast plains with some virga showers across the west central and southwest mountains, due to the much drier low levels, during the afternoon hours. Most likely rainfall amounts from potential thunderstorms in the Ruidoso area look to be between 0.1 to 0.25 inches with high end rainfall amounts around 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Gusty outflow winds from virga across the west central and southwest mountains could move into the ABQ Metro around sunset during firework displays. Storms across the southeast plains taper off around sunset due to the loss of daytime heating. However, a boundary pushing southwest from current storms across eastern Colorado and western Kansas will help aid in the development of isolated to scattered storms across northeast NM later this evening and early overnight hours before tapering off before sunrise Sunday.

The aforementioned boundary will be along the east slopes of the central mountain chain with higher moisture (PWATs around 0.6 to 1 inch) across southern areas and along and east of the central mountain chain Sunday morning. The boundary, higher moisture, and approaching upper level disturbance over California will help result in the development of showers and thunderstorms first across the southwest mountains and central mountain chain midday before moving into nearby lower elevations of south central and eastern NM during the mid afternoon and evening hours. Storms coming off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will be capable of becoming strong to severe as the move across the northeast and east central plains due to MLCAPE values > 1000 J/kg and bulk shear values of 20 to 30 kts. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Some virga activity with some sprinkles and gusty and erratic winds across west central and north central NM. High temperatures will be seasonably hot areawide with lower elevations topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Storms across the central mountain chain will push higher moisture west into the RGV and western NM as well as result in a gusty east canyon wind for the ABQ Metro Sunday evening Some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity across east central NM late Sunday evening before clearing skies early Monday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Typical early July weather is expected next week after the holiday weekend. The monsoon high will be pretty much be overhead Monday shifting west of the state over the southern Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. Daytime heating combined with higher available moisture (PWATs around 0.7 to 1 inch) will help result in a better coverage of diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity each and every day, first favoring the higher terrain midday, moving east and southeast into nearby lower elevations later in the afternoon and evening hours before tapering off at around sunset. Flash flooding will be a concern for area burn scars (i.e. Ruidoso), low lying, and poor drainage areas as is typical during monsoon season. Showers and storms across west central and northwest NM will be drier in nature due to the drier low levels with erratic wind gusts, some patchy blowing dust, and potential isolated dry lightning strikes which could lead to more fire starts. High temperatures before the storms will be seasonably hot in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower elevations. The monsoon high shifts back east towards the state beginning Thursday moving over Colorado by next weekend. This will result in a lower coverage of showers and storms across the higher terrain with most lower elevation areas remaining dry. The higher mid and upper level heights and lower storm coverage will also result in hotter temperatures areawide with lower elevations topping out in the 90s to low 100s, thus resulting in a higher risk for heat related illnesses.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Areas of smoke and haze may produce local visibility reductions across southwest and south central NM near the Sacaton Fire. A slightly greater coverage of high-based showers and thunderstorms over the south central mountains and southeast NM on Independence Day. An area of virga with downburst wind gusts will also develop across the west central and southwest mountains by mid to late this afternoon before shifting east on outflow boundaries into the RGV near sunset. Isolated storm potential overnight Saturday into early Sunday along a boundary across far northeast NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Locally elevated fire weather conditions across parts of western and central NM for Independence Day due to another day of a long period of single digit relative humidity values combined with some patchy areas of breezy winds. Hazy skies with some patchy lower visibility for areas near active wildfires. Some isolated to scattered storms across the eastern plains and south central mountains this afternoon and evening. Higher moisture moves in from the south and east beginning Sunday. This combined with a Pacific disturbance rotating around the upper high over the desert Southwest will result in better shower and thunderstorm chances, favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain Sunday and all higher terrain areas beginning Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across central and eastern NM. Showers and storms across west central and northwest NM will be on the drier side with gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning strikes being the bigger threat. Lowering shower and thunderstorm coverage across the higher terrain late next week along with hotter temperatures as the upper high shifts back east to over Colorado.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 58 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 91 45 92 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 57 89 59 / 0 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 55 89 56 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 88 58 85 58 / 5 5 10 0 Grants.......................... 92 59 90 58 / 5 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 87 60 85 60 / 5 5 20 0 Magdalena....................... 92 66 87 66 / 10 10 30 0 Datil........................... 87 63 84 62 / 10 10 30 0 Reserve......................... 91 57 93 57 / 5 5 20 0 Glenwood........................ 94 62 97 62 / 5 5 10 0 Chama........................... 84 45 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 10 0 Pecos........................... 89 58 87 56 / 0 0 40 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 53 85 55 / 0 0 10 5 Red River....................... 76 40 76 47 / 0 0 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 82 39 80 43 / 0 0 40 5 Taos............................ 90 51 88 52 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 86 55 83 53 / 0 0 60 5 Espanola........................ 95 60 94 61 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 91 63 88 62 / 0 0 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 60 91 60 / 0 0 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 70 94 68 / 0 5 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 66 95 65 / 0 5 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 65 97 65 / 5 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 68 96 67 / 0 5 10 0 Belen........................... 99 65 97 64 / 5 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 99 67 96 66 / 0 5 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 63 96 62 / 5 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 98 67 97 66 / 0 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 65 96 64 / 5 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 96 68 92 66 / 0 5 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 67 96 66 / 0 5 10 0 Socorro......................... 101 72 99 70 / 5 5 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 63 89 61 / 0 5 30 0 Tijeras......................... 93 61 90 60 / 0 5 30 0 Edgewood........................ 94 57 90 57 / 0 5 40 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 55 91 54 / 0 0 40 5 Clines Corners.................. 90 56 86 55 / 0 0 40 20 Mountainair..................... 93 59 90 58 / 5 5 40 5 Gran Quivira.................... 94 61 88 59 / 5 0 40 5 Carrizozo....................... 94 66 92 65 / 10 5 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 86 60 84 59 / 40 5 60 10 Capulin......................... 89 52 83 52 / 10 20 70 10 Raton........................... 94 52 88 52 / 5 5 70 5 Springer........................ 97 55 88 54 / 0 5 60 5 Las Vegas....................... 91 58 86 55 / 0 5 50 10 Clayton......................... 94 60 90 59 / 10 40 50 20 Roy............................. 94 58 87 57 / 0 10 60 10 Conchas......................... 101 64 95 61 / 0 20 50 30 Santa Rosa...................... 100 63 91 60 / 5 5 40 40 Tucumcari....................... 102 66 95 62 / 10 30 40 40 Clovis.......................... 98 67 94 64 / 30 30 20 40 Portales........................ 99 68 96 65 / 30 30 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 101 67 95 64 / 20 10 40 40 Roswell......................... 103 71 98 68 / 20 10 30 10 Picacho......................... 96 64 92 63 / 30 5 40 5 Elk............................. 91 62 90 60 / 40 10 30 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.