textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Sporadic and erratic wind gusts of 45 mph through this evening and again Saturday afternoon across eastern NM will create difficult crosswinds and elevated fire weather conditions.

- Additional wind gusts of 55 mph are expected across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 9,500 feet tonight. - Dry and unseasonably warm weather persists with numerous high temperature records challenged through next week.

- Precipitation chances in the form of lower elevation rain and mountain snow will begin to return Christmas Eve for western New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 111 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Breezy conditions with a few mountain waves continue across New Mexico this afternoon. A healthy blanket of standing wave clouds can be seen on visible satellite, covering much of northeastern NM. Even with that, downsloping winds are robust and high temperatures should still be met even with the cloud cover. The breezes and standing wave clouds almost certainly continue into the evening and overnight hours across much of the same area. Zonal flow aloft roughly perpendicular to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains has been and will continue to contribute to this. The 18z ABQ sounding measured roughly 30-40kt winds up around 700mb, signifying the stout flow at that level. This flow is forecast to strengthen throughout the evening and overnight with a mixture of a tightening 700mb pressure gradient and a deepening surface trough in the lee of the Sangres. Winds in excess of 50kts at the 700mb level overnight will contribute to the sustained gusty conditions at those high elevations along the Sangres, as well as breezy conditions across the Central Highlands. With the Sangres, confidence is high for gusts over 50mph occurring at and above 9,500ft, with medium confidence for gusts 60mph or greater near the peaks. Even though a majority of these gusts will remain above most population centers, have gone with a Wind Advisory through a bulk of the overnight hours.

For Saturday, the overall upper level winds gradually weaken through the day, but not before developing another surface trough in the lee of the Sangres producing breezy conditions across eastern NM. The main breezy areas will be along and south of I-40, with gusts up to 40-45mph (higher confidence near Clines Corners). High temperatures continue their well above average trend, with mid to high 70s across the east and mid to high 60s elsewhere (good for 15-25F above average).

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 111 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

A backdoor front slides into eastern NM Saturday night into Sunday, "cooling" off temperatures to the high 50s to mid 60s, but other than that, zonal flow with a high pressure sliding eastward across northern Mexico keeps New Mexico warm, dry and breezy until at least Wednesday. Monday appears to be the warmest day, with high 70s to low 80s across eastern NM and high 60s to low 70s across the rest of the state. Some locations may reach 30 degrees above average for late December.

Models and ensembles are in very good agreement on the zonal flow beginning to buckle over the eastern Pacific, generating a deep trough off the west coast of the US. In turn, this trough begins to send moisture up through the Desert Southwest and into the area of western NM by Wednesday, with precipitation chances returning for those areas. Given that temperatures are likely to still remain 15- 20F above average during the precipitation chances, rain will dominate any precip that does manifest, with snow being confined to only the highest elevations (above 9,500-10,000ft). As such, little impact is expected from this as accumulation amounts do not appear impressive this far out (probabilities of 1" of snowfall are less than 20% and are confined to the Tusas Mountains). Thus, chances of a white Christmas are sadly very low for a majority of the residents of New Mexico.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Mountain wave activity can be seen across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on satellite imagery with a blanket of standing wave clouds across eastern New Mexico. Breezy winds are likely to accompany KTCC throughout the TAF period, with relatively light winds elsewhere. Into the overnight hours, LLWS becomes the main story for most TAF sites as the lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere experiences increased westerly winds after 03-06z. Most sites will see the LLWS from 06-12z, with the exception of KGUP beginning around 02z. KROW may see a few instances, though confidence was not high enough to put in the TAF. After the LLWS subsides, calm conditions are expected outside of a breezy eastern NM.

..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

Breezy to windy conditions along with mid to low teens humidity values will bring about elevated fire weather conditions to much of eastern and especially southeastern NM Saturday afternoon. Locations across De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt Counties may see a few hours of isolated critical fire weather conditions, mainly from the 20-25mph winds with gusts up to 40mph. In coordination with SWCC, ERCs continue to remain near the 50th percentile, limiting confidence of the risk of rapid fire spread. With all this in mind, a Red Flag Warning was not needed for this forecast package, though it continues to be communicated that elevated conditions remain.

Elsewhere, strong winds across the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains tonight bring isolated elevated conditions based on the wind speeds (humidity values only dip into the mid 20s at the lowest). Downed trees may be an issue for areas above 9,500ft. Throughout the next week, well above average temperatures remain dominant with slight breezes each day in the afternoon. Only isolated elevated conditions will be present at most. Chances for precipitation return for western and northwest NM Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 30 58 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 57 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 61 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 59 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 32 64 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 35 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 41 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 36 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 70 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 33 72 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 27 51 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 36 57 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 38 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 55 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 31 47 29 46 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 26 52 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 59 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 30 65 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 36 59 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 32 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 65 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 38 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 36 70 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 37 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 72 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 37 68 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 70 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 37 69 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 70 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 63 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 36 68 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 39 75 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 60 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 61 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 38 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 64 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 37 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 64 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 65 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 63 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 33 66 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 33 68 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 38 64 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 44 70 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 38 70 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 41 75 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 45 70 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 77 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 74 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 43 76 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 43 74 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 38 79 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 75 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 74 38 73 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Saturday for NMZ213-214.