textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026 - A warming trend is forecast going into the middle of next week, except for brief cooling across eastern NM on Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Hot temperatures will return next week with a minor risk for heat-related illnesses in sensitive populations.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Most of the snow field across north central and northeast NM that appeared on visible satellite imagery this morning has completely melted per the latest imagery, except for over the peaks of the northern mountains. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend is underway and by Friday daytime temperatures will rise above average areawide. Due to the dry atmosphere and abundant sunshine, large diurnal temperature ranges of 40-50 degrees are forecast across much of the area. A Baja low will move south of NM on Friday and is still expected to be a non-player for our weather. Except for some late afternoon and early evening breeziness, winds will be light.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

A shortwave trough moving southeast through the Rockies on Saturday will steer stronger northwest winds aloft over NM. Deep atmospheric mixing of these stronger winds aloft will bring breezy to locally windy conditions by mid/late afternoon. Otherwise, warming will continue Saturday and highs are forecast to rise 5-15 degrees above average. The shortwave trough will eject east out of the Rockies on Saturday night and a backdoor cold front will follow it down the eastern plains. The front will push up against the central mountain chain early Sunday and will likely result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys at some point Sunday afternoon/evening. Cold air advection behind the front on Sunday will result in 10-15 degrees of cooling across much of eastern NM relative to Saturday. The front will also bring sufficient moisture and upslope forcing for a round of late day isolated to scattered convection that will favor the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands.

A 500mb high will strengthen to near 590dam over AZ on Monday, then move east over NM on Tuesday, renewing the warming trend and sending temperatures well above average. High temperatures on Tuesday may challenge daily records at a number of locales, including Farmington, Albuquerque and Roswell to name a few. The upper high is forecast to move east of NM on Wednesday, opening up the southern door to moisture advection and the potential for daytime heating triggered convection going into the end of next week. However, the modeling has shown poor run-to-run consistency with the synoptic pattern across the western US and eastern Pacific from Wednesday onward and is now showing considerable spread with the main upper air features. We have moderate forecast confidence on above average temperatures persisting from mid through late next week, but lower forecast confidence on potential for showers and storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Except for a some late afternoon gustiness, winds will be light through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

A warming and drying trend is underway, with daytime temperatures reaching up above average areawide by Friday. Increasing northwest flow aloft and deep atmospheric mixing on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions by afternoon, creating several hours of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. However, ERC values are mostly unfavorable for the rapid spread of fire and critical conditions are very limited in area on Saturday. A strong backdoor cold front will push down the eastern plains on Saturday night and pull up to the central mountain chain early Sunday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and higher humidity to eastern areas. The front will bring sufficient moisture for a round of afternoon/evening wetting showers and storms on Sunday that will favor the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands. An upper high will transition east across the area from Monday through Wednesday, bringing well above average temperatures and mostly light winds. Humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will increase thereafter as the upper high moves east of NM and allows moisture to creep up from the south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 42 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 27 76 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 36 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 32 80 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 35 79 40 82 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 38 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 82 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 86 43 89 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 43 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 37 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 31 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 25 67 31 69 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 30 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 38 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 38 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 38 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 44 84 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 39 85 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 44 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 39 85 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 44 85 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 40 85 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 44 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 44 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 38 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 32 80 37 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 40 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 47 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 44 72 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 35 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 33 75 40 80 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 33 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 37 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 43 77 45 82 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 38 76 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 43 84 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 82 46 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 48 85 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 47 85 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 46 86 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 44 86 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 48 88 53 95 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 44 82 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 41 79 48 85 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.