textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern and central New Mexico through today, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- After a downturn in thunderstorm activity Sunday and Monday, chances will ramp back up going into the middle of next week with an elevated risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A Monsoon moisture plume persists over the region, but a drier airmass over the Desert SW is offering an obvious contrast on the latest water vapor satellite imagery. This airmass is staged to overtake NM this weekend as the flow aloft turns to the west with an upper low, currently over the Great Basin, moving east across the central Rockies. The latest water vapor satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough across west central NM, forecast to move northeast across northern NM and around the upper high circulation tonight. This feature should add some forcing to keep convection going longer into the night than what is currently being modeled by the CAMs. A downtrend in PWATs is forecast Saturday, with an associated downtick in convective coverage, as the drier airmass to the west is steered over NM. However, the latest CAMs show convective initiation Saturday afternoon along the Continental Divide, with progression eastward into the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Storms will be moving at a decent clip of 20-30mph Saturday and with lower PWATs, the flash flood threat will trend down as well. A Flash Flood Watch is not anticipated for Saturday, including in Ruidoso where all of the CAMs are forecasting a down day with isolated off-scar showers and storms.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

PWATs will continue a downtrend Sunday and be unsupportive of airmass thunderstorms across central and western NM. Isolated storms are possible along a backdoor frontal boundary Sunday afternoon across the Northeast Highlands and East Central Plains, but the 12Z model suite is largely void of qpf across our area at that time. A Pacific low is forecast to wobble eastward from over CA on Mon/Tue, while the backdoor front is reinforced across eastern NM. This setup will bring a resurgence in PWATs as a Monsoon moisture plume stands up over the region. Monday will be the transition day and Tuesday is looking active. PWATs will challenge calendar day records by Wednesday, which is looking like the wettest day of the next seven at this time. The Pacific low is forecast to fill and lift out of the picture on Wednesday, but the upper high will remain centered along the upper Gulf coast through the end of the week, keeping the wet forecast going with a Monsoon moisture plume in place over NM. Worthy of note, the medium range models continue to show an active tropical pattern across the far eastern Pacific through late next week and the ECMWF has modeled tropical remnants to move north into NM by Friday for two runs in a row now.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to progress eastward across western NM reaching into portions of the Rio Grande Valley this hour. Thunderstorm risk remains at KFMN and KGUP through 02Z and 03Z, peaking into the Rio Grande Valley from KSAF to KABQ mainly b/w 00Z to 04Z. A cluster of thunderstorms b/w KSRR, KROW, and KATS will also remain thru the evening before diminishing to leftover shower activity persisting well into the overnight period. As conditions slowly clear overnight, patchy fog and mist will be a risk to monitor over central and western NM, especially closer to the AZ border. TAF amds may be necessary to address this during near dawn Saturday morning. Otherwise, another less widespread round of afternoon thunderstorms is forecast to favor the Continental Divide pushing eastward into the Rio Grande Valley again, as well as moving east off the east slopes of the Sacramento Mts toward KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. A Monsoon moisture plume continues over the area, with elevated humidity and good chances for wetting rainfall. Expect a downturn in chances for wetting rainfall from Sunday into Monday as a relative drier airmass overtakes the region. However, humidity and chances for wetting rainfall will trend back up going into the middle of next week as a Monsoon moisture plume stands back up over the region. Daytime temperatures will trend back down and be below average from mid through late next week as a result of abundant cloud cover and rain-cooling.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 54 81 50 80 / 30 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 77 40 77 / 60 20 20 0 Cuba............................ 49 75 47 75 / 50 50 20 0 Gallup.......................... 48 78 45 78 / 20 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 47 75 45 74 / 30 20 5 0 Grants.......................... 49 78 47 78 / 40 30 10 0 Quemado......................... 51 77 49 76 / 30 30 10 0 Magdalena....................... 55 77 54 77 / 40 40 10 0 Datil........................... 51 76 50 76 / 30 30 10 0 Reserve......................... 53 83 51 83 / 10 10 5 0 Glenwood........................ 59 88 58 87 / 10 10 0 0 Chama........................... 45 71 42 71 / 50 20 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 54 75 52 76 / 40 50 40 0 Pecos........................... 51 78 49 78 / 30 20 30 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 74 46 74 / 40 20 20 0 Red River....................... 43 65 40 65 / 30 20 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 37 71 36 70 / 20 20 30 5 Taos............................ 47 77 45 78 / 30 20 30 0 Mora............................ 49 77 46 76 / 20 20 30 10 Espanola........................ 54 81 52 82 / 40 30 30 0 Santa Fe........................ 54 77 53 77 / 40 20 40 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 79 51 80 / 30 20 40 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 81 58 82 / 30 30 40 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 81 57 82 / 30 30 30 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 83 57 84 / 30 30 30 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 82 57 82 / 30 30 30 0 Belen........................... 57 84 55 84 / 40 40 30 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 83 56 84 / 20 30 40 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 83 54 84 / 30 30 30 0 Corrales........................ 58 82 56 83 / 30 30 40 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 83 55 84 / 40 40 30 0 Placitas........................ 58 80 56 81 / 20 30 40 0 Rio Rancho...................... 58 81 56 83 / 30 30 40 0 Socorro......................... 61 85 60 86 / 30 30 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 76 52 77 / 30 30 40 0 Tijeras......................... 56 78 54 78 / 30 30 40 0 Edgewood........................ 52 79 50 80 / 30 20 30 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 81 47 82 / 30 20 30 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 78 51 78 / 30 20 30 0 Mountainair..................... 54 79 53 79 / 30 30 30 0 Gran Quivira.................... 55 80 53 80 / 30 20 40 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 83 60 84 / 40 20 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 78 54 78 / 60 30 20 5 Capulin......................... 53 80 50 76 / 10 20 20 20 Raton........................... 50 84 48 81 / 20 20 20 20 Springer........................ 51 86 48 83 / 20 20 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 51 80 48 79 / 20 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 62 88 58 80 / 10 10 20 5 Roy............................. 56 85 53 81 / 20 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 63 93 60 89 / 30 10 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 61 89 60 88 / 50 10 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 64 92 61 88 / 30 10 10 5 Clovis.......................... 64 90 62 90 / 40 10 10 10 Portales........................ 65 92 63 91 / 40 10 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 63 91 62 91 / 60 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 66 94 63 95 / 50 20 20 0 Picacho......................... 60 88 60 88 / 70 40 10 10 Elk............................. 58 85 57 86 / 60 30 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ201-203-204-206- 207-226-239-241.