textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Strong winds and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread each day through Tuesday.

- There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness for sensitive groups in eastern New Mexico today.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Gusty southwest winds are ongoing throughout central and northern NM this afternoon out ahead of a broad longwave trough currently located over The Great Basin. The SW/NE jet max at 700 mb will move from northwest to northeast NM overnight, creating gusty winds along the crest and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns overnight into the early morning hours. Winds should remain lighter below roughly 9500 feet, but gusts could approach 65 mph over the peaks.

Southwest flow will continue to prevail over New Mexico on Monday, although winds will trend weaker as the aformentioned trough pulls northward. It will still be breezy areawide, with gusts generally in the 20 to 35 mph range. Temperatures will remain relatively unchanged on Monday, with highs generally within a few degrees of seasonal normals.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A portion of The Great Basin trough will break off over California Monday night, pushing into the Mojave desert on Tuesday. An upper- level speed max will clip the Four Corners area, increasing winds over the high terrain of western NM. 700 mb winds from the LREF mean are in the 20 to 30 knot range so gusts upwards of 35 mph could mix down to the surface. It will not be as windy as this weekend, but still seasonably windy for the last day of June. The aformentioned jet streak will help to push Gulf moisture northward into east- central and northeast NM Tuesday afternoon. Isolated showers could develop as far east as Santa Rosa and as far north as Clayton and the uptick in shear could support an isolated severe storm or two. The dryline boundary will likely set up in the same area on Wednesday afternoon, with isolated storms in the far eastern portion of the state. The synoptic pattern will remain active over the western CONUS late week into the weekend, although the jet stream looks like it will stay north of New Mexico. That will translate to weaker winds, but warmer temperatures. Highs will climb into the 90s in most lower elevation areas late week, with temperatures near or above the 100 degree mark in the eastern plains.

The late week time period has also trended drier given that the monsoon high will be slow to develop overhead. GEFS ensemble mean PWATs trend up to near normal over the weekend, rising slightly above normal early next week as easterly flow sets up over the southern half of the state. 500 mb heights on all ensemble means are showing a ridge setting up over the desert southwest early next week, but they vary significantly in the magnitude and exact location.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Dry and windy conditions are in place across northern and central New Mexico early this evening. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 kt at the surface will start to subside in many locations around sunset, however winds aloft and near high terrain areas will remain strong through Monday morning. Gusts of 40 kt could occasionally impact KAXX, KRTN, KCQC, KE33, and a few other sites through mid morning Monday with some low level wind shear also found nearby. Into Monday afternoon, wind speeds will overall be lighter, but still breezy to locally windy with the highest gusts of 30 to 35 kt being most common in northeastern New Mexico, including KLVS, KRTN, and KCAO. Isolated thunderstorms will also develop late Monday afternoon in southeastern New Mexico with hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours. Hot temperatures will also be common with high density altitude readings suggesting poor aircraft performance for some.

..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK

Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing throughout much of central and northern New Mexico this afternoon, with the strongest southwest winds focusing over the western and northern high terrain. There have been fewer fire starts than expected given all of the dry lightning last week, but the benefits of last week's moisture are diminishing as evidenced by increasing ERCs throughout the state.

Winds will trend weaker in most areas Monday, except across the northeast where there will be several hours of critical fire weather conditions. Southwest flow will remain entrenched across the state through mid-week, with increasing winds on Tuesday. Near critical to critical conditions will focus over southwest and northeast NM so a Fire Weather Watch was issued for these areas on Tuesday. Gulf moisture will push northward into northeast NM on Tuesday, providing the energy for a few showers and storms along the dryline. If this moisture looks like it will push further northward, a Red Flag Warning may not be needed for Tuesday for the Northeast Plains. Winds trend weaker mid to late week as temperatures trend higher. The late week/weekend period has recently trended drier with only very low chances of rain in south-central and southeast NM. The monsoon high will attempt to set up over the desert southwest early next week, drawing more moisture into the state and increasing rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 53 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 48 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 52 87 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 86 59 86 / 0 5 0 5 Datil........................... 56 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 51 88 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 62 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 57 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 47 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 43 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 52 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 53 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 58 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 61 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 64 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 60 94 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 64 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 61 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 98 65 97 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 58 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 58 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 58 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 60 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 57 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 56 89 52 89 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 58 90 54 90 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 59 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 68 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 20 Roy............................. 62 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 69 97 66 97 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 66 93 63 91 / 0 0 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 72 98 69 97 / 0 5 5 20 Clovis.......................... 71 97 68 95 / 5 20 10 40 Portales........................ 72 98 68 96 / 10 20 10 40 Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 67 96 / 0 10 0 30 Roswell......................... 72 100 69 98 / 5 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 65 95 63 92 / 0 10 0 30 Elk............................. 63 92 61 90 / 0 5 0 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104-105- 109-120-121-123-125.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-123.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-105-109-123.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-210-216- 228.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Monday for NMZ213-215-227.