textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on Thursday and Friday across northeast NM.

- Hotter temperatures through the weekend will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

00Z RAOBs over the western U.S. showed the center of a 596dm H5 high between Flagstaff and ABQ while a 60-80kt jet stream enters northern CA and NV. The monsoon moisture plume is draped from southwest to northeast across NM where PWATs are slightly below climo for early July. Surface dewpoints are still only in the 40s in most areas. The moisture plume will rotate clockwise today and become compressed into central and southern NM while the upper level jet approaches the Great Basin. Storms will develop in the high terrain around noon then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. The stronger cells will be capable of producing small footprints with rainfall amounts >0.50". Showers will linger into late this evening followed by gradually clearing skies overnight.

By Thursday, drier westerly flow will filter into northern and western NM as the upper level speed max moves into southern UT. Max temps will approach 100F around Farmington and within parts of the middle RGV. A Heat Advisory may be needed. The majority of storms will focus over the southern high terrain and high plains of eastern NM. Any showers that develop north and west of ABQ will be drier with strong outflows and little to no rainfall. A few cells farther south will still be capable of producing rainfall amounts >0.50" with more erratic steering flow expected. There is a moderate chance for a few storms to develop on the Raton Ridge Thursday afternoon then move southeast across the northeast plains into Thursday night. SPC has a small 'Slight Risk' area given the stronger shear with the approaching jet max. There is a greater chance for a more organized area of storms over eastern CO and western KS Thursday night, which helps force a moist boundary southwest into northeast NM for Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Friday is expected to be similar to Thursday but with greater coverage of storms across northeast NM and slightly hotter temps in the RGV. The setup appears more favorable for storms to develop along the Raton Ridge then become strong to severe while moving southeast across northeast NM. MOS guidance peaks on Friday with the hottest temps so far this season at ABQ, so confidence on a Heat Advisory is higher.

Convection over northeast NM is shown forcing low level moisture even farther west to the central mt chain Friday night. Meanwhile, the H5 high center is beginning to take shape again near the Four Corners into Saturday. Another round of Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the RGV and western NM. Moderate precip chances focus along and east of the central mt chain with slow north to south steering flow. These storms force even greater low level moisture west across the RGV and into western NM Sunday. The upper high will then eject northeast into the northern Great Plains by Sunday and open the door to a rich tap of monsoon moisture over NM thru Wednesday. NBM QPF probs are showing increasing chances for higher daily precip in several areas, particularly southern and western NM. However, there is still uncertainty with the placement and strength of the upper high and trajectory of the deeper moisture. There is potential for a large area of dry air near and above 500mb to advect westward beneath the upper level ridge which would limit storm coverage over NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TS will develop on the high terrain between 12pm and 3pm then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of outflow wind gusts near 40KT, brief moderate to heavy rain, patchy BLDU, and lightning strikes. SHRA will linger over central and eastern NM thru this evening followed by partial clearing overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Storms with small footprints of wetting rainfall will occur again today around the high terrain, the nearby highlands of central NM, and more of northeast NM. Storm motion will be slow and erratic to the south and east. Any storms across western NM will be drier in nature with strong outflow winds and little to no rainfall.

Even drier westerly flow will spread across northwest NM Thursday and Friday with several hours of single digit humidity and northwest breezes each afternoon. A few hours of near critical fire weather will occur. However, winds are the limiting factor despite ERC values above the 90th percentile. Meanwhile, more storms with wetting rainfall are still possible for northeast NM and the southern high terrain Thursday and Friday.

Moisture will surge west to the central mt chain Saturday with increasing coverage of storms with wetting rainfall. Outflow from this activity will force low level moisture farther west toward the AZ border Sunday. Storm chances are trending higher for southern and western NM Sunday thru Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 98 64 98 61 / 0 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 93 50 93 48 / 10 20 5 0 Cuba............................ 92 58 92 58 / 20 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 92 56 93 57 / 30 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 87 56 89 58 / 50 10 10 0 Grants.......................... 91 56 93 58 / 40 20 20 0 Quemado......................... 88 58 90 60 / 70 50 10 10 Magdalena....................... 89 64 92 66 / 40 20 40 20 Datil........................... 85 59 88 61 / 60 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 93 54 96 54 / 60 50 40 20 Glenwood........................ 97 58 100 58 / 40 20 40 20 Chama........................... 84 49 85 49 / 30 20 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 89 64 / 40 10 30 0 Pecos........................... 90 56 92 57 / 40 20 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 87 54 / 20 20 20 0 Red River....................... 76 48 77 47 / 30 20 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 81 42 82 41 / 50 20 20 0 Taos............................ 88 53 90 53 / 20 10 20 0 Mora............................ 85 54 86 54 / 40 20 40 5 Espanola........................ 96 61 97 61 / 10 10 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 90 61 91 62 / 10 20 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 59 94 59 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 66 99 66 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 66 99 67 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 65 101 66 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 67 100 67 / 10 20 10 0 Belen........................... 99 64 101 65 / 10 20 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 99 65 100 66 / 10 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 62 100 63 / 10 20 10 5 Corrales........................ 99 66 101 66 / 10 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 63 100 64 / 10 20 10 5 Placitas........................ 94 67 96 67 / 10 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 67 100 67 / 10 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 101 71 102 72 / 20 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 62 92 62 / 10 20 10 5 Tijeras......................... 92 62 94 62 / 10 20 10 5 Edgewood........................ 92 59 94 60 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 54 95 55 / 20 30 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 89 57 90 57 / 30 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 92 60 94 61 / 20 40 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 90 61 92 62 / 20 60 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 93 67 95 69 / 10 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 87 63 / 30 30 50 20 Capulin......................... 88 54 86 53 / 40 20 70 20 Raton........................... 92 53 91 52 / 50 20 40 20 Springer........................ 93 55 92 55 / 30 10 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 89 56 90 56 / 30 10 40 10 Clayton......................... 96 63 94 61 / 20 20 40 40 Roy............................. 92 60 90 59 / 40 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 100 65 99 64 / 20 30 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 96 64 / 20 20 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 100 69 100 67 / 0 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 97 67 98 67 / 0 5 10 10 Portales........................ 98 69 100 69 / 0 5 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 98 68 99 68 / 0 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 99 71 101 72 / 0 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 94 65 96 66 / 0 20 30 20 Elk............................. 91 62 92 64 / 5 10 50 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.