textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 414 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return for most areas on Thursday and for eastern New Mexico on Friday. Strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins.

- Temperatures will fall back near or below seasonal normals Friday and Saturday.

- Precipitation chances return near the Colorado border Friday with broader precipitation chances returning early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 118 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Pleasant weather across the Land of Enchantment today, with light and variable winds for most locations and temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Few to scattered high clouds will stream across the central part of the state during the afternoon, but a mostly sunny day is expected for the majority of the state. Although cooler than the last few days, temperatures will still be about 5 to 12 degrees above average for this time of year.

Breezy winds and critical fire weather conditions return on Thursday as an upper low digs south into the Four Corners region. Guidance continues to indicate that the main trough axis (with stronger winds aloft) doesn't cross the southern Rockies until Thursday night and into Friday morning. However, 700 mb flow does increase to around 35 kts on Thursday afternoon, with some of this stronger momentum likely mixing down to the surface during the day. Bumped up winds winds areawide into the 15 to 25 mph range, with the strongest gusts of 35 to 45 mph for areas along and east of the central mountain chain. A 992 - 996 mb lee side surface low in southeast Colorado should aid in further strengthening winds in the northeast highlands and northeast plains. While winds look to remain just under Wind Advisory criteria, this part of the state has the highest confidence to see 25 to 35 mph sustained winds. These winds will combine with critically low humidities for a high risk of rapid fire spread during the afternoon.

As the Pacific front and main trough axis begin to push through Western New Mexico on Thursday night, 700 mb winds increase to around 55 to 65 kts. This will result in strong winds overnight over the high terrain, particularly along the central mountain chain and parts of the western ranges along the Continental Divide. Confidence is increasing in the threat Wind Advisory or even High Wind conditions existing across mountain zones in central New Mexico through early Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

The front looks to be across eastern New Mexico by morning on Friday. Flow aloft diminishes to around 40 kts at 700 mb by noon, decreasing winds along the high terrain. Diurnal mixing will allow for another round 25 to 35 mph winds over eastern New Mexico. Another sub-1000 mb sfc low will develop during the afternoon, this time farther northeast into Kansas. So while it may not be as strong as Thursday, northeast New Mexico will once again likely see the highest threat of rapid fire spread due to stronger gusts. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the highlands and plains in eastern New Mexico. There is a low chance of some light snow (under an inch) across the northern mountains on Friday.

As the system continues east into the Great Plains, a backdoor cold front will swing through eastern New Mexico on Friday night. Current guidance indicates that this front will make it to the central mountain chain and induce a gap wind into the Rio Grande Valley. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph during the dawn hours on Saturday may create some patchy blowing dust and across parts eastern and central New Mexico.

As a result of these fronts, temperatures cool down to near and even below average cross the state. Highs will range in the 50s to low 60s on Saturday. Pleasant temperatures continue on Sunday, with mostly light winds areawide.

A cut off low is still forecast to develop over Baja California early next week, but there are still some disagreements among models about when the system will begin to eject out east and where it will track through. Chances of precipitation increase on Monday afternoon, mainly for the southern half of the state as Pacific moisture begins to stream northward. Temperatures look to remain above average, so snow will be isolated to the mountain peaks. Another round of breezy west winds will be likely as this system pushes through the state in the early to midweek period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 414 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with periods of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds. Moderate probabilities exist for MVFR conditions in low stratus/fog near the TX border in east central NM late tonight into early Thursday, but is expected to stay east of KROW. Gusty south-southwest winds will increase late Thursday afternoon, especially at KGUP where gusts to 35kts are likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

While warm and dry conditions continue, light winds across the state have kept fire weather concerns low for today. However, critical fire weather conditions return across the eastern half of the state on Thursday. Strong wind gusts up to 45 mph and low relative humidities of 6 to 10% will create an increased risk of rapid fire spread for the northeast and central highlands and plains. Winds will be slightly weaker across the rest of the state, but fire weather conditions will remain elevated to near critical for western and central areas. he strongest winds may occur Thursday night into Friday morning, especially along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain, but winds will slowly decrease through Friday afternoon. However, stronger winds aloft look to mix down during the day, creating another round of breezy 25 to 35 mph wind gusts along the northeast and east-central New Mexico on Friday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon for the northeast and central highlands and plains. A backdoor front will swing through the eastern half of the state on Friday night, shifting winds northeast and cooling temperature areawide. With lesser wind speeds and cooler temperatures, fire concerns decrease over the weekend. Low chances of precipitation return early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 34 64 29 49 / 0 5 20 20 Dulce........................... 23 61 21 47 / 0 0 20 40 Cuba............................ 30 61 24 47 / 0 0 10 20 Gallup.......................... 24 61 19 49 / 0 0 5 5 El Morro........................ 29 60 23 47 / 0 0 5 5 Grants.......................... 24 66 22 51 / 0 0 5 5 Quemado......................... 29 63 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 66 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 61 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 27 65 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 32 70 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 53 19 39 / 0 0 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 37 59 31 47 / 0 0 5 10 Pecos........................... 31 61 28 49 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 57 29 45 / 0 0 0 20 Red River....................... 28 48 23 36 / 0 0 0 30 Angel Fire...................... 22 56 18 42 / 0 0 0 20 Taos............................ 25 61 25 49 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 30 61 27 49 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 29 66 27 56 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 36 61 32 50 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 64 30 52 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 69 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 38 71 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 35 74 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 38 71 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 32 74 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 38 71 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 32 73 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 37 72 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 33 73 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 40 66 36 53 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 38 71 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 38 76 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 63 33 50 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 38 64 34 51 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 34 66 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 67 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 64 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 66 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 35 66 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 69 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 42 63 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 30 64 28 51 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 26 67 25 54 / 0 0 0 10 Springer........................ 25 69 26 57 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 32 66 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 38 73 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 34 69 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 37 79 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 36 74 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 79 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 79 41 69 / 0 10 0 0 Portales........................ 45 81 42 71 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 38 79 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 44 82 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 76 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 74 41 65 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.