textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to impact New Mexico through tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return Friday through the weekend. Widespread beneficial rainfall appears increasingly likely.

- Gusty west to southwest winds will return Sunday and Monday afternoons.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Much needed rainfall has occurred across portions of western NM with more than a half an inch near Zuni Pueblo and between a quarter and one half inch across Catron County and near Gallup. The weak upper level low responsible for the precipitation will continue to trek eastward across central NM overnight through the morning hours. Most of the additional precipitation overnight will remain south of I-40, and those locations may pick up between a tenth and one quarter inch. After sunrise, much of the precipitation will focus over southeast portions of the CWA. The system will exit into the Texas Panhandle early this afternoon, but low level southeasterly flow will persist, thus the moisture will remain in place. Orographic lift and weak instability will allow showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the high terrain by early to mid afternoon. Northwest flow behind the system will push showers and thunderstorms toward the southeast through the afternoon and evening, with storm coverage waning after sunset. The cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler, with most locations near or below normal for early April.

Drier air is still expected to push into NM on Wednesday and most, but not quite all, of the moisture is expected to mix out. Still, cu buildups over the high terrain appear likely and virga is not out of the question, though should be sparse. Nonetheless, the drier air and less cloud coverage overall will allow temperatures to climb 5 to 15 degrees above today's readings. All areas are forecast to be above normal.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Low level return flow will bring Gulf moisture back into eastern NM Wednesday night, though daytime mixing on Thursday afternoon will mix much of this moisture out. Nonetheless, can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm across far east central or southeast areas. Elsewhere, a low chance of virga with gusty winds exists over the high terrain. Temps will warm a degree or two over Wednesday's readings.

Gulf moisture will make a stronger northwestward push Thursday night into Friday morning, and may reach the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain. However, daytime mixing will mix sfc dewpoints back down into the upper 30s and low 40s across eastern NM. Meanwhile, a Pacific low will get nudged southeastward west of the CA coast as another system approaches it from the NW. This will result in increasing south to southwest flow over NM by Friday afternoon. Some modest improvement in mid level moisture will occur and this should be enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. The highest chances for precipitation will be along and east of the Central Mountain Chain where the better moisture will reside. The main concern with these storms will be gusty and erratic winds. As moisture return ramps up again Friday night, and southwest flow persists if not increases as the nose of an upper level jet impinges on southeast NM, showers and a few thunderstorms may regenerate across eastern NM Friday night and into Saturday morning. Precipitation totals across eastern NM during this period could be as high as 0.50" to 1.00". Disturbed southwest flow will persist on Saturday, but the amount of additional storms will depend on if clouds can clear and the atmosphere can destabilize somewhat. A more substantial perturbation in the southwest flow is progged to cross NM on Saturday morning, but if it's delayed at all, that would help generate storms in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the parent Pacific system will weaken into an open wave late Saturday over SoCal, then will zip eastward over AZ Saturday night and cross northwest NM Sunday morning. Ascent ahead of the system will allow for more showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday night through Sunday morning across western and central NM. Operational models are currently depicting the wave to exit NM by the afternoon Sunday, shutting down much of the precipitation by early afternoon, though ensembles linger the precipitation a bit longer. Nonetheless, a lee-side surface trough will develop and increased mid level flow should yield a breezy to windy afternoon areawide, with the strongest winds across northeast NM.

The next storm system will move over the southern Great Basin Monday, with southwest winds again increasing over NM. While precipitation may develop across northwest NM Monday afternoon, the remainder of the area should see strong southwesterly winds. Would not be surprised to see forecast winds trend upward over the next few days if the pattern holds.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Light showers will continue to shift eastward early this morning south of the I-40 corridor. MVFR cigs have developed across portions of western NM, to include KXNI and areas just south of KGUP, and additional development is possible over the next few hours near and south of I-40 before lifting late this morning. This afternoon, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across the high terrain. Gusty winds and brief MVFR cigs will again be possible with the activity. These showers and thunderstorms will slowly taper off this evening as they shift toward the southeast. There is a low chance of MVFR cigs developing across east central or southeast NM toward sunrise Wed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Rain showers will continue to cross southern areas this morning, then additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the high terrain. Storms this afternoon and evening will shift toward the southeast, ending largely by midnight. Drier conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday, though can't rule out a few virga showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two across eastern NM Thursday. Temperatures will warm back above normal. Unsettled weather remains on tap Friday through the weekend. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely, which will then be followed by gusty southwest winds Sunday and Monday afternoons. The earliest critical fire weather conditions would return to the forecast is Monday pending how wet the fuels remain. If fuels remain soaked and ERC's are low, then critical fire weather conditions would hold off even longer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 71 39 76 41 / 20 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 66 29 70 28 / 50 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 63 34 70 38 / 60 30 5 0 Gallup.......................... 65 29 73 32 / 30 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 36 69 39 / 40 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 65 33 74 35 / 40 30 0 0 Quemado......................... 61 37 71 40 / 50 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 42 71 47 / 60 20 5 0 Datil........................... 58 39 69 43 / 60 30 5 0 Reserve......................... 67 33 75 36 / 40 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 72 38 80 41 / 30 5 0 0 Chama........................... 59 30 64 32 / 70 30 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 41 69 45 / 60 60 5 0 Pecos........................... 59 35 70 39 / 70 60 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 34 65 39 / 70 50 10 5 Red River....................... 50 31 56 34 / 70 60 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 56 22 62 25 / 70 70 10 10 Taos............................ 63 30 69 32 / 70 60 10 5 Mora............................ 59 34 68 37 / 70 60 10 5 Espanola........................ 67 38 75 39 / 50 50 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 39 70 44 / 70 60 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 37 73 41 / 60 60 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 47 75 51 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 45 77 48 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 42 80 46 / 40 30 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 44 78 49 / 40 40 0 0 Belen........................... 68 39 80 43 / 60 30 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 42 78 48 / 40 40 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 68 38 79 41 / 50 30 0 0 Corrales........................ 68 42 78 48 / 40 40 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 39 79 43 / 50 30 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 45 75 50 / 40 50 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 44 77 49 / 40 40 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 46 79 49 / 70 20 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 42 70 46 / 60 40 5 0 Tijeras......................... 61 43 72 47 / 50 40 5 0 Edgewood........................ 61 39 72 42 / 60 50 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 29 74 35 / 60 50 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 57 36 70 41 / 70 50 5 0 Mountainair..................... 60 40 72 43 / 70 30 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 59 39 72 44 / 80 40 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 44 73 48 / 80 40 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 54 40 67 46 / 80 30 10 0 Capulin......................... 62 34 70 37 / 50 60 10 10 Raton........................... 66 30 74 34 / 60 60 10 10 Springer........................ 67 31 76 34 / 50 50 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 60 35 72 39 / 60 50 5 5 Clayton......................... 68 41 77 43 / 30 30 10 10 Roy............................. 64 36 75 39 / 40 50 10 5 Conchas......................... 69 40 82 43 / 30 30 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 63 39 80 41 / 30 30 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 69 42 82 47 / 20 20 5 5 Clovis.......................... 63 40 78 47 / 30 10 5 0 Portales........................ 64 38 80 46 / 30 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 63 39 81 43 / 30 20 10 5 Roswell......................... 63 44 81 48 / 80 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 59 40 77 45 / 80 30 10 0 Elk............................. 58 36 73 43 / 80 30 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.