textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will return today through Saturday, favoring central and eastern areas. High chances exist for widespread beneficial rainfall across eastern New Mexico. Some storms may become strong to severe across eastern NM, especially near the TX border.

- Strong west to southwest winds will return Sunday and peak on Monday and Tuesday. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Sunday and Monday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico, but fuels may not be receptive to fire spread due to rainfall from today and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft in response to an amplifying troughing pattern along the west coast will bring moisture advection through Saturday, with good chances for showers and storms that will favor areas along/east of the central mountain chain. There is a marginal risk for severe storms today across northeast NM, where 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to rise to 40-45kts while a backdoor front will pulls-up stationary and provides a focus for initiation. Storms that develop late today west of the central mountain chain will be moisture-challenged and will favor strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting (>0.10") rainfall. Showers and storms are still modeled to persist overnight along/east of the central mountain chain, but the severe threat will wane with the loss of daytime heating. There is a non-zero chance for flash flooding in the Ruidoso area overnight, but chances will remain low due to storm motion of 25-30mph (low residence time) that will be cross-basin (vs dangerous down- basin). All of the eastern plains is included in a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday, with points along and east of a San Jon to Melrose to Elkins line included in a slight risk. The latest NAM is advertising muCAPE approaching 2,500J/kg with LIs up to -7C and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts, which is plenty supportive of a severe threat. Storms are possible across central NM on Saturday as well, but will be moving quickly and moisture- challenged with a fairly small wetting footprint. Strong/erratic wind gusts will be associated with storms on Saturday, especially west of the central mountain chain.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Convection will diminish rapidly with the loss of daytime heating Saturday night, while PWATs will trend down rapidly as dry air aloft moves over the region ahead of a potent upper low moving inland over northern CA. The approaching upper low will bring a deepening lee side trough on Sunday while steering stronger southwest winds aloft over the area, creating breezy to locally windy conditions. The upper low is forecast to fill and dive southeast into the Desert SW on Monday as the jet stream pivots over NM and an even deeper lee side trough develops. The result will be windier conditions that may require a Wind Advisory on Monday. The upper low will open up and move across the region Tuesday, bringing a Pacific cold front and precipitation chances that will begin Monday night and favor the western and northern mountains. Snow levels will fall to near 7Kft late Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a few inches of snow to the western and northern mountains. Westerly winds will remain strong on Tuesday, especially across eastern NM. Temperatures will drop below average behind the cold front on Tuesday across central and western NM. Weather conditions are forecast to improve on Wednesday behind the departing trough, but the threat for severe storms may come back to the eastern plains on Thursday as Gulf moisture returns in response to another approaching upper level trough.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with a couple of exceptions. IFR cigs will likely develop at KROW early Friday morning, but would be short-lived. MVFR conditions are possible at KROW in thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, isolated to scattered late day storms may impact KSAF and KABQ/KAEG, but gusty/erratic winds would be the main impact as VFR conditions are expected with this high-based round of convection. Gusty southerly winds are forecast Friday across much of the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Humidity will trend up through Saturday, especially across eastern NM as a west coast troughing pattern amplifies. Good chances for wetting storms are forecast through Saturday, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain. Areas between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain will see a mix of dry and wet storms, with greater potential for lightning ignitions. A dry slot will pivot over the area Sunday and a lee side trough will deepen, with wind speeds and humidity exceeding critical threshold across much of the area. However, forecast confidence in critical fire weather conditions along/east of the central mountain chain on Sunday is low due to potential for possible soaking rains Fri/Sat. An even deeper lee side trough and stronger winds aloft are forecast for Monday, with continued potential for critical fire weather conditions. Moisture advection on Monday ahead of an approaching upper low will bring increased cloud cover and could limit daytime mixing and resulting fire behavior. The upper low will bring chances for wetting precipitation to the northern and western mountains from Monday night through Tuesday along with a Pacific cold front. Westerly winds will remain strong across eastern NM on Tuesday where critical fire weather conditions are possible. Improving conditions with warming/drying are forecast Wed/Thu for much of the area behind the departing trough.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 78 49 73 41 / 10 30 30 10 Dulce........................... 73 35 67 29 / 20 60 60 30 Cuba............................ 73 41 66 35 / 40 70 60 40 Gallup.......................... 73 33 69 30 / 20 20 20 5 El Morro........................ 70 39 65 35 / 30 30 40 10 Grants.......................... 74 37 70 32 / 40 40 40 10 Quemado......................... 72 40 68 35 / 20 20 30 5 Magdalena....................... 74 47 70 42 / 50 50 40 10 Datil........................... 70 41 67 37 / 40 30 30 10 Reserve......................... 77 37 73 32 / 10 10 20 0 Glenwood........................ 81 41 78 36 / 10 10 10 5 Chama........................... 66 36 58 29 / 30 70 80 40 Los Alamos...................... 71 46 65 42 / 50 80 70 50 Pecos........................... 73 41 66 38 / 60 80 70 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 41 63 37 / 40 80 70 40 Red River....................... 59 36 53 32 / 60 80 80 50 Angel Fire...................... 64 30 59 27 / 60 80 70 60 Taos............................ 73 39 67 31 / 40 80 70 50 Mora............................ 70 39 65 35 / 60 80 70 50 Espanola........................ 79 46 73 39 / 40 70 60 50 Santa Fe........................ 73 46 67 42 / 50 80 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 46 70 40 / 50 80 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 52 75 48 / 40 70 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 50 76 45 / 40 70 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 49 79 44 / 40 60 50 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 51 76 46 / 40 60 50 30 Belen........................... 83 47 78 41 / 40 60 40 30 Bernalillo...................... 83 50 77 45 / 40 70 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 83 46 78 40 / 40 60 40 30 Corrales........................ 83 50 78 45 / 40 70 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 83 48 78 42 / 40 60 40 30 Placitas........................ 78 51 73 47 / 40 70 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 82 51 77 46 / 40 70 50 30 Socorro......................... 84 51 81 45 / 30 50 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 47 69 43 / 50 80 60 40 Tijeras......................... 75 48 70 44 / 50 70 60 40 Edgewood........................ 76 44 72 40 / 50 80 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 41 73 37 / 50 70 60 40 Clines Corners.................. 73 44 68 40 / 50 80 60 40 Mountainair..................... 77 44 71 40 / 50 70 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 76 46 70 42 / 40 70 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 78 50 73 48 / 40 70 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 72 46 66 45 / 50 70 70 20 Capulin......................... 66 41 64 37 / 70 80 70 40 Raton........................... 72 41 68 35 / 70 70 70 40 Springer........................ 74 44 70 36 / 60 70 60 40 Las Vegas....................... 73 43 66 39 / 60 80 70 50 Clayton......................... 68 47 69 48 / 60 80 70 50 Roy............................. 73 46 66 42 / 70 80 80 60 Conchas......................... 83 50 75 47 / 70 80 80 50 Santa Rosa...................... 80 49 71 46 / 60 80 80 40 Tucumcari....................... 83 51 75 50 / 70 80 90 50 Clovis.......................... 83 54 73 52 / 50 70 90 50 Portales........................ 86 52 75 51 / 50 70 90 50 Fort Sumner..................... 85 51 74 47 / 60 80 90 40 Roswell......................... 86 55 76 53 / 40 70 80 20 Picacho......................... 82 49 72 47 / 50 70 70 20 Elk............................. 80 45 73 45 / 40 70 70 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.