textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Slow moving storms with heavy rainfall may create localized flash flooding along and east of the central mountain chain each afternoon and evening through Saturday. Areas on and downstream of burn scars, including the Ruidoso area, will have the highest risk. - Scattered light showers and isolated dry thunderstorms over parts of west central New Mexico will threaten strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

- Dry and and seasonably hot conditions early next week with a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Upper level troughing is being observed across southern and eastern NM this afternoon northeast of a broad upper low over the Gulf of California and Sonora Mexico. This resulted in scattered to broken mid level clouds this morning. Daytime heating between the breaks in these mid level clouds, combined with PWATS around 0.5 to 0.6 inches across north central NM increasing to around 1 to 1.2 inches across southern and east central NM, has now resulted in scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern mountain ranges, The best chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening will exist across the southern mountains and nearby highlands, and far southeast plains due to being in the deformation zone under the aforementioned upper level troughing. Northwest and far west central NM will be the driest and hottest part of the state due to it's close proximity to an upper level ridge over northern AZ. Mild with lingering mid and upper level clouds across southern and eastern NM overnight into Friday morning.

The upper low over the Gulf of California and Sonora Mexico today gradually slides east to over Chihuahua Mexico and far West Texas Friday. Higher moisture (PWATs greater than 0.70) across southern NM and along and east of the central mountain chain will result in shower and thunderstorm development across the southern and central mountains midday Friday with a slow drift south into lower elevations across south central, east central and southeast NM late Friday afternoon and evening lingering longest across far southeast NM overnight Friday into Saturday. Storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall look to be anchored along the ridgeline of the Sacramento Mountains and the South Fork and Salt burn scars surrounding Ruidoso Friday afternoon. For that reason, have opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the zone during this time before the atmosphere stabilizes come the early to mid evening. Temperatures on Friday will be near to slightly above average across northern and western NM closer to the upper high centroid over the Navajo Nation and near to slightly below average across south central and southeast NM near the aforementioned upper low circulation.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The weak upper low mentioned in the short term moves over the Texas Panhandle, Caprock and Rolling Plains Saturday. Lingering moisture in place (PWATs around 0.7 to 1.1 inches) combined with deformation between the upper level ridge axis over far western NM and the aforementioned upper low will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorm development across the central mountains and nearby highlands and lower elevations Saturday afternoon and early evening before dissipating around sunset due to loss of daytime heating. Similar temperatures to Friday areawide. Upper level ridging moves over the state Sunday with drier air of PWATS between 0.3 to 0.6 inches in place. This will result in dry and hot conditions areawide. The upper high shifts to over the southern Great Plains early next week as an upper level trough enters the Pacific coast. Long term ensemble cluster guidance vary on how far south this trough digs beginning Tuesday into mid next week. A shallower trough will result in drier westerly flow across western and central areas of the state with some higher moisture due to return flow across eastern areas. A deeper trough/upper low will help pull subtropical moisture north into the state resulting in some thunderstorm development favoring the central high terrain. High temperatures look to be seasonably hot during this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Scattered thunderstorms across the mountains and nearby highlands, especially southern areas, this afternoon and early evening tapering off and becoming more showery mid evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds up to 45 kts and small hail. Light winds with lingering mid to high level clouds across southern, central and eastern areas overnight into Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A stray to isolated dry thunderstorm across the west central mountains with wetter scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southwest and central mountains and adjacent eastern highlands and east central and southeast plains this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Drier thunderstorms across west central New Mexico will be capable of producing dry lightning and gusty winds with thunderstorms elsewhere capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds. On Saturday, breezy to locally gusty west winds across far western New Mexico combined with minimum relative humidity values in the upper single digits will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Drier westerly winds and hot conditions areawide Sunday and Monday with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across northwest New Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm development could return to the central high terrain beginning Tuesday but overall confidence is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 94 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 89 45 89 / 0 5 0 20 Cuba............................ 51 86 52 85 / 5 10 5 20 Gallup.......................... 48 90 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 85 51 85 / 5 5 10 0 Grants.......................... 51 89 51 89 / 5 5 10 5 Quemado......................... 52 86 54 86 / 10 5 5 0 Magdalena....................... 57 84 57 85 / 5 10 10 20 Datil........................... 52 83 53 84 / 5 10 20 5 Reserve......................... 47 91 49 91 / 10 10 5 5 Glenwood........................ 50 95 50 95 / 5 20 10 0 Chama........................... 42 82 43 81 / 5 20 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 56 84 57 82 / 5 10 5 40 Pecos........................... 49 84 49 82 / 5 40 0 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 83 50 81 / 5 20 0 40 Red River....................... 42 74 42 73 / 5 20 0 60 Angel Fire...................... 41 78 42 76 / 5 30 5 70 Taos............................ 48 85 48 83 / 5 20 5 30 Mora............................ 48 82 49 79 / 5 30 5 70 Espanola........................ 54 92 56 90 / 5 10 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 55 84 55 83 / 5 20 0 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 87 54 86 / 5 10 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 90 63 90 / 5 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 91 59 91 / 5 10 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 94 59 94 / 5 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 93 61 93 / 5 10 5 10 Belen........................... 57 93 58 93 / 5 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 93 61 93 / 5 10 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 57 93 56 93 / 5 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 61 94 61 94 / 5 10 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 58 93 58 93 / 5 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 60 89 61 88 / 5 10 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 60 93 61 93 / 5 10 5 10 Socorro......................... 62 93 62 94 / 5 5 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 85 55 84 / 5 20 5 20 Tijeras......................... 55 86 55 85 / 5 20 5 10 Edgewood........................ 52 86 53 86 / 5 30 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 87 49 86 / 5 30 0 40 Clines Corners.................. 52 82 51 81 / 10 40 10 50 Mountainair..................... 52 84 51 85 / 5 50 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 52 82 52 83 / 5 40 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 58 82 58 84 / 0 50 40 5 Ruidoso......................... 53 76 54 77 / 0 60 40 50 Capulin......................... 48 82 48 78 / 10 20 5 30 Raton........................... 48 87 50 84 / 10 20 5 50 Springer........................ 50 86 50 83 / 5 30 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 50 83 51 80 / 5 30 20 50 Clayton......................... 56 87 56 83 / 10 10 10 5 Roy............................. 52 84 52 81 / 10 30 20 10 Conchas......................... 58 90 58 87 / 10 10 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 55 87 55 84 / 10 10 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 59 90 59 87 / 5 10 20 0 Clovis.......................... 59 87 58 84 / 5 10 20 20 Portales........................ 59 87 58 84 / 5 10 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 57 87 57 86 / 5 5 20 5 Roswell......................... 60 87 60 88 / 5 0 20 10 Picacho......................... 55 84 55 84 / 0 20 20 20 Elk............................. 53 81 53 83 / 10 40 20 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch Friday afternoon for NMZ226.