textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM through this weekend.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Light showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning, and this activity will continue through the overnight hours.

A very active Saturday remains in store for the Land of Enchantment. A 599-600 dam H5 high resides over CO while a weak upper low/MCV over SE NM will slowly drift westward through the day. Though models are at odds with where exactly this feature ends up by late in the afternoon, all signs suggest that this feature will aid in another round of heavy rainfall for portions of western NM. Near record-breaking PWATs, LI's around -3 to -5 and slow and erratic storm motions will result in pockets of rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches. This will be especially problematic if these pockets of heavier rainfall occur in vulnerable areas such as Zuni Pueblo and Gallup that have already received abundant rainfall over the last 7-10 days. Hi-Res models also suggest this will be another active day for the burn scars surrounding Ruidoso, with activity starting around the noon hour. REFS and HREF LPMM output show over an inch of rainfall on the west side of both the South Fork and Salt burn scars. Storm motion will depend exactly on where the low/MCV ends up, but confidence is high that this area will see additional rainfall on already saturated soils today. Flood Watches have already been issued for these areas. Meanwhile, the upper high will allow for temperatures to climb, with upper 90s or triple digit heat expected for eastern NM. Even mid to upper 90s will be in store for the Rio Grande Valley.

On Sunday, the upper high may weaken a touch to 598dam, and drier air will filter into eastern NM around the high. The NAM, and to some extent other models, show the aforementioned upper low still loitering around the AZ/NM border Sunday afternoon with PWATs remaining well above late July normals. But curiously, most models are not quite as active as today. Instability could be a bit of a question mark as the NAM shows nearly moist- adiabatic mid level lapse rates across west central NM with the cloud cover not completing eroding in the morning. It is the outlier, though it did pick up on this low earlier than any other models earlier this week, so it shouldn't be ruled out. Nonetheless, the atmosphere will remain plenty capable of still producing heavy rainfall in small footprints Sunday afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain forecast for the northern and western mountains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The upper high will meander near or over NM through the end of the week. It does appear PWATs will trend down slightly on Monday, but will continue to hover at or just above an inch through the end of the week. This moisture beneath the high will allow for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the northern and western mountains through at least Thursday. An outflow boundary may push into northeast NM on Friday which will increase chances for thunderstorm activity there. The moisture combined with continued slow storm motions will allow for localized heavy rainfall, and couldn't rule out a few flash floods throughout the week. Additionally, temperatures will remain hot. Triple digit heat is on tap for the Rio Grande Valley and eastern NM each day. Heat Advisories will also be likely.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

SHRA/TS will form over the high terrain thru 2pm today then move erratically north and west into nearby lowlands thru this evening. Direct hits will produce IFR/MVFR vsbys in heavy rain, outflow wind gusts >35KT, and frequent lightning strikes. The main focus today will stretch along and west of the central mt chain. Showers are likely to persist thru 2am across western NM with partial clearing elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the foreseeable future. Rather, showers and thunderstorms are expected daily. These storms will have the potential for heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic winds as well as frequent lightning. Storms will develop over the high terrain before moving onto nearby lowlands each afternoon. Storm motion will be slow and erratic and heavily reliant on outflow boundaries. Patchy dry fuels may still be susceptible to new fire starts from the lightning activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 98 68 97 68 / 20 30 20 20 Dulce........................... 94 55 94 55 / 60 30 60 20 Cuba............................ 90 61 90 61 / 20 30 30 30 Gallup.......................... 91 60 90 60 / 60 50 60 20 El Morro........................ 87 59 86 59 / 60 60 60 30 Grants.......................... 91 61 91 62 / 50 60 40 30 Quemado......................... 87 60 87 61 / 70 70 50 30 Magdalena....................... 89 67 89 66 / 50 30 40 20 Datil........................... 85 62 85 62 / 60 50 50 20 Reserve......................... 93 60 93 59 / 60 40 50 20 Glenwood........................ 98 64 98 63 / 50 40 30 20 Chama........................... 86 54 86 54 / 60 20 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 91 67 91 68 / 20 20 20 30 Pecos........................... 90 60 91 61 / 30 30 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 87 61 89 60 / 40 10 30 40 Red River....................... 84 53 84 53 / 40 10 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 84 50 85 51 / 30 10 40 30 Taos............................ 90 59 92 59 / 30 20 20 30 Mora............................ 87 58 90 59 / 20 20 30 20 Espanola........................ 96 67 98 67 / 20 20 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 90 66 91 67 / 30 20 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 64 94 65 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 71 98 72 / 50 40 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 68 99 69 / 40 30 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 68 100 68 / 30 30 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 70 98 71 / 30 30 0 20 Belen........................... 98 68 99 68 / 20 20 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 99 69 100 70 / 30 30 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 97 66 98 67 / 20 20 5 20 Corrales........................ 99 69 100 70 / 30 30 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 98 68 98 68 / 20 20 0 20 Placitas........................ 94 69 96 70 / 40 30 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 98 69 99 70 / 30 30 5 20 Socorro......................... 101 73 101 73 / 20 30 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 64 91 65 / 50 40 10 20 Tijeras......................... 94 63 94 65 / 50 40 10 20 Edgewood........................ 94 60 95 61 / 50 40 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 58 95 59 / 40 30 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 89 60 90 61 / 30 20 10 20 Mountainair..................... 93 61 93 61 / 40 30 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 91 63 91 63 / 40 30 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 93 68 94 69 / 40 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 86 64 87 64 / 70 20 30 5 Capulin......................... 91 60 93 60 / 5 5 10 20 Raton........................... 95 59 98 59 / 0 5 10 20 Springer........................ 96 61 99 61 / 0 5 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 91 60 93 61 / 10 20 10 20 Clayton......................... 100 69 101 70 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 93 65 95 65 / 0 5 0 10 Conchas......................... 100 70 103 70 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 95 66 98 67 / 0 5 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 101 72 103 72 / 0 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 99 69 100 69 / 5 10 0 0 Portales........................ 99 70 101 70 / 5 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 99 70 100 71 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 100 74 102 74 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 95 68 96 68 / 20 10 10 5 Elk............................. 93 65 93 65 / 20 5 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-204>206-208- 209.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.