textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of western and central New Mexico Tuesday will lead to potentially damaging downburst winds, patchy blowing dust, dry lightning, and a risk of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in an increasing risk for rapid fire spread each afternoon through Tuesday across far western New Mexico and across northeast New Mexico on Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico Tuesday could producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Quite a few weather impacts and hazards are looming this week, none of which are overly concerning on their own, but the combination of these several minor threats will keep things busy at the forecast desk. A speed max aloft (65 kt at 300 mb) is moving into NM from the southwest today with sufficient mid level moisture that will spawn high-based showers and thunderstorms, producing mostly virga, gusty winds, and perhaps blowing dust. These showers and dry thunderstorms will favor western to central NM, and are projected to continue overnight before the speed max shifts farther east on Tuesday.

Low level moisture via return flow is also modeled to enter southeastern NM early Tuesday morning. Any low stratus or fog should mostly stay southeast of our forecast area in the morning, but the dewpoint rises will be significant with 50's and low 60's (deg F) continuing to infiltrate our east central to southeastern zones through the afternoon Tuesday. This moisture coupled with rising instability and relatively weak, but sufficient, jet dynamics will yield thunderstorms with a few turning strong to severe on Tuesday, mainly over northeastern NM. Also of note, a slight uptick in winds aloft (15 to 30 kt at 700mb) and a lee- side surface trough will produce stronger prevailing winds on Tuesday, especially over northern zones which will be most prone to gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Pressure heights will remain high (about 85th percentile), and this will keep temperatures warm to hot Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An upper level trough will move over the northern Rockies on Wednesday, dragging drier westerlies aloft into NM. Although low level moisture will have entered more of eastern NM early Wednesday morning, this will be scoured out by the afternoon with dewpoints falling quickly. This will put the kibosh on storms while keeping breezy to windy conditions going. The drier air and downsloping component in eastern zones will allow temperatures to gain a couple to a few degrees, introducing more in the way of minor risk for heat related impacts and illnesses on Wednesday.

The Wednesday trough will eject into southern Ontario with another shortwave trough dropping over WY/NE/SD on Thursday. This will lead to another lee-side surface trough in northeast NM with dry, hot, and moderately breezy conditions persisting. A few locations will gain a couple degrees more on Thursday, pushing them close to Heat Advisory thresholds, particularly the lower Rio Grande and lower Pecos valleys.

After the shortwave trough on Thursday ejects into the northern Great Plains late in the day and overnight, a notable backdoor surface front will slide down the plains and into eastern NM through Friday morning. The backdoor front will meet up with moist return flow, instigating significant moisture advection over eastern zones and even modest increases over central zones. This will be a catalyst for more showers and thunderstorms Friday with lingering moisture getting recycled for another subdued crop of storms on Saturday. The flow aloft is modeled to turn more northwesterly into Sunday with another shortwave trough and attendant moist, cold front potentially clipping northeastern NM with additional storms following.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A band of high-based showers will focus over west-central NM tonight between 10Z and 16Z. Most of this rain will not reach the ground, but there could be localized gusty outflow winds upwards of 25 knots and a rogue lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out. Winds will become gusty this afternoon, with the south to southwest gusts of 25 to 35 knots commonplace around the region. Scattered convective activity will focus over central and eastern NM in the afternoon, with the potential for a few strong storms to produce outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 knots. Showers and storms may cluster together in the eastern plains after 00Z, with coverage decreasing elsewhere. A dry Pacific frontal passage will enter from the west in the evening, with drier air advecting in from the west and shutting down any convective activity in central NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The transitional period between spring and the monsoon is upon us with bouts of dry gusty westerlies continuing to threaten between moisture intrusions. Through this evening, the main fire weather concern is dry thunderstorms and gusty winds from virga across western and central zones.

Moisture increases in eastern NM on Tuesday via return flow, and this will lead to isolated to scattered storms capable of small wetting footprints of rain east of the central mountain chain, as well as hail and downburst winds. Meanwhile areas between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain will be more prone to keep observing dry storms and virga Tuesday afternoon and evening. The other concern for Tuesday will be a bit of an uptick in winds across northern NM which will pose critical fire weather concerns over northwestern to west central zones where low RH will be juxtaposed, and consequently a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for tomorrow.

Excellent humidity recoveries will grace the eastern plains Wednesday morning, but unfortunately the low layer moisture will all be scoured out by Wednesday afternoon with afternoon RH plummeting. This drop in moisture along with breezy to windy conditions will reintroduce marginal to critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday, mainly in the upper Rio Grande valley and northeastern quadrant of the state. For now, confidence is highest in the northeastern zones where a Fire Weather Watch has been expanded.

Winds are modeled to reduce into Thursday, but dry and breezy conditions are still forecast with the northern zones poised to observe the strongest gusts of 25 to 30 mph. In typical early June fashion, the moisture then looks to return to the eastern half of NM via a couple of backdoor fronts early Friday and again on Sunday. This will reintroduce chances for wetting rainfall to the eastern zones, but western areas will again be teased by virga and a few dry thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 93 56 93 / 5 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 86 44 87 / 5 40 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 85 52 88 / 20 30 5 0 Gallup.......................... 46 89 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 85 50 87 / 20 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 51 89 52 91 / 20 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 51 87 50 89 / 10 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 59 86 59 91 / 5 30 5 0 Datil........................... 55 84 54 89 / 10 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 51 91 48 95 / 5 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 95 53 98 / 0 20 0 0 Chama........................... 44 78 43 81 / 5 40 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 84 59 88 / 20 30 5 0 Pecos........................... 54 84 54 88 / 5 30 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 80 52 85 / 5 40 20 0 Red River....................... 44 71 44 76 / 5 40 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 46 76 45 80 / 5 30 10 0 Taos............................ 52 84 51 88 / 5 30 10 0 Mora............................ 52 82 51 88 / 5 30 10 0 Espanola........................ 57 91 57 95 / 10 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 85 59 89 / 5 30 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 89 56 91 / 10 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 91 66 94 / 5 20 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 93 62 96 / 5 20 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 95 62 98 / 5 20 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 93 62 96 / 10 20 5 0 Belen........................... 59 95 59 99 / 5 20 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 62 94 62 97 / 10 20 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 94 59 98 / 5 20 5 0 Corrales........................ 62 94 63 97 / 10 20 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 59 94 60 98 / 5 20 5 0 Placitas........................ 63 90 63 93 / 5 20 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 93 62 96 / 10 20 5 0 Socorro......................... 66 97 65 101 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 86 59 90 / 5 30 10 0 Tijeras......................... 58 88 58 92 / 5 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 55 89 56 92 / 5 20 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 90 55 93 / 5 20 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 56 85 57 88 / 5 20 10 0 Mountainair..................... 55 88 57 92 / 5 20 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 88 58 92 / 5 20 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 91 65 95 / 0 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 84 60 88 / 0 20 5 0 Capulin......................... 53 84 50 89 / 0 40 20 0 Raton........................... 53 88 50 93 / 5 30 10 0 Springer........................ 54 90 53 95 / 0 30 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 85 53 90 / 5 50 20 0 Clayton......................... 62 93 61 97 / 0 30 10 0 Roy............................. 57 88 56 94 / 5 50 20 0 Conchas......................... 64 96 63 101 / 5 50 30 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 92 60 98 / 5 50 30 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 97 66 102 / 5 30 30 0 Clovis.......................... 66 94 66 100 / 0 20 30 0 Portales........................ 66 95 66 101 / 0 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 94 64 101 / 5 30 20 0 Roswell......................... 69 97 68 104 / 0 5 20 0 Picacho......................... 62 92 61 98 / 0 40 10 0 Elk............................. 61 91 60 96 / 0 20 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101-105.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-123.