textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Widespread rain totaling a half inch to an inch or more by Saturday morning spreads to areas along and east of the central mountain chain tonight and through Friday night.

- Winter travel conditions will impact the high northern mountains tonight through Friday night.

- Gusty east winds up 50 mph will develop below canyons into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys tonight and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A wetter and cooler period of weather remains on track heading into this evening and lasting through Friday night. Very beneficial rain amounts generally between a third of an inch to one inch through Friday night are favored for areas along and east of the central mountain chain. Nuisance flooding will be a concern where moderate showers to at brief heavier rainfall is favored tonight into Friday morning across portions of southeastern NM. Meanwhile, high mountain snow will favor the northern mountains where 1 to 4 inches is favored except higher amounts up to 8 to 12 inches above 10,000 feet. Strong east canyon winds gusting to 50 mph will also impact the ABQ metro area, particularly below the Tijeras Canyon area along I-40 this evening and overnight.

The synoptic scale setup shows a 567dm H5 low moving ashore the northern Baja Peninsula this afternoon, which will fill and phase with an upstream trough over UT tonight into Friday. At the surface, higher moisture remains pent up across eastern NM being pushed back by drier westerlies infiltrating western and central NM. Shower activity already beginning to break out over the northern mountains this afternoon will expand along the east slopes of the central mountain chain this evening as this moisture boundary pushes back west, surging through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening. This will be the impetus for strong easterly winds pushing through the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and Albuquerque. The Wind Advisory remains on track for the Middle Rio Grande Valley and ABQ Metro where wind gusts overnight are favored to reach 50 mph, notably through and immediately west of the Tijeras Canyon area along I-40.

As the moisture and strong east winds continue on to and west of the Continental Divide, what's left of the H5 low will track east overhead along the international border with Mexico. Areas through east-central and northeastern NM will see more stable conditions favoring lighter shower activity thru the night. Upslope flow with some modestly favorable dynamics beneath a deformation area will help generate healthy snow production over the northern mountains. The Winter Storm Warning for the Sangre de Cristo Mts there remains on track, but the elevations for the healthiest accumulations >6 inches have trended higher to >9,500 feet. Meanwhile, guidance has come down for snow along the Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas likely thanks to slightly warmer temperatures and less favorable upslope flow. Given this continued downward trend for snow there, will do a rare downgrade of the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory. Areas of south-central and southeastern NM will see the best potential for thunderstorms and moderate to locally heavy rainfall tonight into Friday morning. A few spots could see a quick 0.25" to 0.75" over 3 to 6 hours overnight, with some nuisance flooding concern in low-lying areas mainly in Chaves County. Elsewhere in that part of the forecast area, rises on area streams in and around the Ruidoso burn scar areas are expected, but the threat of burn scar flash flooding remains low. Rainfall tapers off over eastern NM, switching focus over the Continental Divide and central mountain chain Friday afternoon and evening. The best chances for snow over the northern mountains also shifts more into the Tusas Mts and very high peaks of the Jemez Mts during this time. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the Tusas Mts, but there is some uncertainty with snow ratios given the afternoon timing for the best snow accumulations. Will let the midnight shift take another pass at this. Shower activity and easterly winds finally begins to wane heading into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The weekend sees drier and warmer conditions each day with enough remnant boundary layer moisture to allow for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon favoring the central and western high terrain. Westerly winds increase Monday ahead of the next approaching upper low along the CA coastline. This upper low is favored to track across southern CA Tuesday and AZ/NM Wednesday. A few pieces of energy or vort-lobes will rotate out ahead of this low into the Desert Southwest bringing increasing precipitation chances to the area. Thereafter, forecast confidence dips considerably. Global numerical models are having a hard time resolving a high amplitude jetstream pattern over the Pacific and western CONUS. This is allowing for a few different plausible scenarios for the aforementioned upper low to either progress eastward or stall over NM for a few days into late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Rain showers have developed across much of northeast NM and a few snow showers have mixed in at higher elevations. These showers will expand in coverage this evening and overnight to all areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, with a lower probability of showers within the Rio Grande Valley after midnight. MVFR and IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys will be common across central and eastern NM tonight through Friday once precipitation develops. Mountain obscurations are expected. Additionally, east canyon winds will develop below canyons in the Rio Grande Valley this evening. Southeasterly gap winds have already developed at KSAF with gusts around 35 kt, and gusts near 40kt are expected at KABQ. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect from 8pm through 5am for the ABQ Sunport. Winds should taper off after sunrise. On Friday, while precipitation slowly dissipates in the afternoon across eastern NM, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across western NM near the ContDvd. Erratic wind gusts can be expected with this activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Dry and breezy elevated fire weather conditions remain this afternoon over western NM, with cooler temperatures and higher moisture alongside easterly winds remaining pent up east of the central mountain chain. This higher moisture surges westward this evening and tonight thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing a strong east canyon wind to Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Fire weather concerns get shut down thru western NM as this boundary progresses westward to and past the Continental Divide Friday. Meanwhile, a storm system tracking east along the International Border will generate abundant wetting rainfall along and east of the central mountain chain tonight through Friday night with high elevation snow over the northern mountains. Sparse and isolated wetting rain footprints are expected along and west of the Rio Grande Valley however. However, a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce locally heavier rain amounts along the Continental Divide in west-central NM Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, beneficial and healthy snow amounts of 4 to 12 inches are forecast in the higher elevations of the northern mountains.

Fire weather concerns remain low this weekend as conditions dry out and warm up. Humidity recoveries remain good to excellent alongside lighter southerly winds. Drier westerlies are favored to return Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching storm system from the west. Precipitation chances begin to increase over far northern NM Monday, and over more of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. However, forecast confidence is notably low Tuesday and beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 37 67 41 70 / 0 20 10 0 Dulce........................... 27 60 25 66 / 20 70 50 20 Cuba............................ 34 57 30 63 / 30 70 50 30 Gallup.......................... 30 64 28 67 / 0 20 20 10 El Morro........................ 37 59 33 63 / 5 40 40 30 Grants.......................... 34 60 31 65 / 10 50 40 20 Quemado......................... 37 63 35 65 / 10 30 30 30 Magdalena....................... 43 56 38 61 / 40 50 40 40 Datil........................... 41 57 35 60 / 20 50 50 40 Reserve......................... 36 71 35 69 / 20 30 20 30 Glenwood........................ 39 77 38 74 / 40 30 20 20 Chama........................... 28 52 25 59 / 30 80 60 30 Los Alamos...................... 42 50 35 60 / 70 80 60 40 Pecos........................... 34 47 28 61 / 90 80 60 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 50 28 59 / 80 80 70 30 Red River....................... 27 38 21 48 / 80 90 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 22 41 16 54 / 90 90 70 40 Taos............................ 31 53 25 62 / 80 90 70 30 Mora............................ 29 43 24 58 / 90 90 70 40 Espanola........................ 42 58 35 68 / 70 80 60 30 Santa Fe........................ 41 50 34 62 / 80 80 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 53 32 65 / 80 70 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 57 40 68 / 60 50 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 59 38 69 / 60 50 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 62 38 72 / 50 40 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 60 40 70 / 50 40 40 20 Belen........................... 45 61 37 71 / 50 50 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 46 61 38 71 / 60 50 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 42 61 34 71 / 50 50 30 20 Corrales........................ 45 61 39 72 / 50 50 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 45 61 36 71 / 50 50 30 20 Placitas........................ 45 55 39 66 / 70 60 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 46 61 39 70 / 50 50 40 20 Socorro......................... 49 64 42 71 / 50 50 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 50 34 62 / 70 60 40 30 Tijeras......................... 40 51 35 64 / 70 60 40 30 Edgewood........................ 37 50 30 64 / 80 70 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 51 26 65 / 80 70 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 34 43 30 59 / 90 80 40 30 Mountainair..................... 36 50 32 64 / 80 60 30 40 Gran Quivira.................... 38 48 33 62 / 80 70 30 40 Carrizozo....................... 46 52 38 64 / 90 70 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 39 45 34 56 / 90 90 30 30 Capulin......................... 29 40 24 59 / 100 90 40 20 Raton........................... 32 45 24 63 / 100 90 40 20 Springer........................ 33 45 25 64 / 90 90 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 32 42 28 59 / 90 90 50 30 Clayton......................... 37 50 34 67 / 90 90 30 10 Roy............................. 33 44 30 62 / 90 100 40 20 Conchas......................... 39 49 33 69 / 90 100 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 38 45 33 64 / 100 100 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 40 52 35 71 / 90 100 20 10 Clovis.......................... 42 48 38 69 / 90 100 20 10 Portales........................ 42 49 37 69 / 90 100 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 41 50 35 68 / 90 100 20 10 Roswell......................... 49 52 42 68 / 90 100 20 10 Picacho......................... 42 48 37 63 / 90 90 20 20 Elk............................. 39 49 33 62 / 90 90 30 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ213>215.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for NMZ227.