textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 534 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times Monday morning. Highest confidence exists near the central mountain chain, protected mountain valleys, and southeast New Mexico.

- Isolated showers and storms across the northern and western high terrain each afternoon may produce gusty, erratic wind gusts with little to no precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Due to satellite and surface observations, mention of patchy fog was expanded across east central and southeast NM this morning. Additionally, freezing fog was mentioned for Angel Fire. Updated products out shortly.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Overall, pleasant weather will continue across the Land of Enchantment through the short term period. The primary weather impacts are likely to come from patchy fog, areas of drizzle and low clouds, and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The upper level ridge still remains situated over UT tonight, with its area of influence remaining across much of the state. Dewpoints across NM remain in the 40s and 50s, signaling that surface moisture still remains after our long stretch of rainfall. Given the mainly clear conditions and favorable radiational cooling effects, patchy fog may develop in areas across eastern NM (best chances from Clovis to Fort Sumner to Santa Rosa), near the Estancia Valley, and in sheltered high-terrain valley locations. From the Sacramento Mountains eastward, weak easterly upslope flow will continue to aid in the development of low clouds and patchy drizzle, primarily from Ruidoso to Roswell southward. Both the fog and low clouds/drizzle have the capability to lower visibility for a period of time tonight and tomorrow morning, which may impact the Monday morning commute.

Throughout the afternoon, destabilization is forecast to occur across the northern mountains, with LIs forecast in the -2 to -4C range. Any shower/storm development is most likely to be a result of surface heating, as little to no upper level synoptic forcing is expected for today. PWATs are forecast to remain in the 0.4-0.6" range, so any shower/storm is favored to produce little to no precipitation, and will likely be more virga in nature with gusty outflow winds. Temperatures are likely to be in the mid to upper 70s across lower elevation areas, with mid to upper 60s in the mountainous areas. These are good for being within 5F of average for early October. Patchy fog may develop in similar areas Monday night, but there is lower confidence in this at the moment.

Into Tuesday, a 250mb shortwave looks to traverse over the area, flattening and weakening the high pressure over the area, albeit not substantially. The approaching shortwave looks to provide a bit more synoptic lift across the area as a result of exit region dynamics. LIs and PWATs do not change much in value going into Tuesday, though the LIs do spread further into western NM. With the additional synoptic lift, it's likely we will see a slightly higher coverage of showers and storms on Tuesday. However, they are still forecast to produce little to no precipitation, so gusty winds remain the primary impact with these showers/storms.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The 250mb jet streak looks to remain oriented northwest to southeast across the western portion of NM throughout the second half of the week. A weak 500mb inverted trough looks to develop within the remnants of the high pressure within this time as well. The combination of these two features look to continue the chances of drier showers and storms across the high terrain in western and northern NM on Wednesday and Thursday. Across Thursday and Friday, the 250mb jet streak begins to develop a trough to the southeast of NM, forming either a closed low or open wave at 500mb (models begin to differ on the strength of said feature by this point). The favored location of development for this system is near or east of the Big Bend in TX. However, should this feature form further west, cannot rule out a few showers making its way into southeast NM. Throughout the rest of this week, the persistent northwest flow aloft should allow for temperatures to gradually decrease across the area.

Moving into the weekend, the next feature to keep an eye on will be a hefty low in the Pacific Northwest. There is currently considerable timing discrepancies between deterministic models, as well as how strong and sharp it becomes. Looking at ensemble clusters, the slightly favored outcome at this time is a sharper, stronger system, which works to draw in moisture to the area and provide a more active end to the weekend in terms of precipitation. The slightly less favored solution is the low remaining weaker and more confined to the PNW. In this case, less moisture would be advected into the region. Both solutions point towards the potential of breezier conditions across the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Low clouds and patchy fog are continuing to envelop portions of southeast and east central NM, as well as sheltered, high-terrain valley areas. Brief to consistent MVFR to IFR conditions are likely at terminals across these areas, including KROW, KCVN, and KAXX until 16z. Isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm may develop across the high terrain this afternoon, with the primary impact being gusty and erratic wind gusts. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected elsewhere through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. After several days of precipitation, ERCs remain below average with no immediate concern for fine fuels to become receptive to fire growth. A few isolated showers and storms may develop across the northern and western high terrain in the afternoon this week, though little to no rainfall are expected from these. Gusty winds and a stray lightning strike would be the primary impacts. Ventilation rates remain poor to fair across the area, with pockets of good to great filling in. Winds are expected to remain light throughout the week, with chances of increasing southwest winds returning next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 78 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 76 41 77 42 / 5 5 10 10 Cuba............................ 71 47 75 48 / 5 5 20 20 Gallup.......................... 76 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 72 43 74 45 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 73 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 72 43 74 46 / 0 0 10 10 Magdalena....................... 69 47 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 68 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 75 44 78 48 / 0 0 20 10 Glenwood........................ 78 50 81 53 / 0 0 20 5 Chama........................... 70 42 71 42 / 30 10 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 71 50 74 52 / 5 5 10 5 Pecos........................... 70 46 77 46 / 10 5 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 43 73 43 / 20 5 10 5 Red River....................... 67 36 68 36 / 30 10 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 70 26 71 28 / 20 10 10 0 Taos............................ 72 43 75 43 / 10 5 5 0 Mora............................ 71 45 74 46 / 20 5 10 0 Espanola........................ 75 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 70 50 75 50 / 5 5 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 53 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 76 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 76 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 76 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 76 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 76 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 76 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 74 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 75 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 72 49 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 71 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 70 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 70 47 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 52 74 53 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 66 43 71 45 / 10 5 10 0 Capulin......................... 72 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 75 45 81 47 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 77 44 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 70 45 77 46 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 75 54 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 77 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 56 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 75 55 81 56 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 76 56 82 56 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 75 56 82 55 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 57 82 57 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 73 52 79 54 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 49 75 51 / 20 5 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.