textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 506 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly along and near the high terrain.

- A high risk of flash flooding is forecast on the Ruidoso burn scars this afternoon. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Three primary upper level features will be at work for NM weather through the weekend. A deep upper level low is moving inland into OR while the area of high pressure aloft over the south central ConUS begins to build westward with subtle pressure rises into NM. While Hurricane Marie will continue northwestward over open waters of the eastern Pacific, she will shed some high level modified moisture that will split the two aforementioned features and work into the Four Corners states by Sunday.

As for today, the best theta-E axis will stretch from the southern to the northern mountains of NM with a more concentrated maximum along and just east of the central mountain chain. Storms will consequently be most prone to develop along the high terrain of the central mountain chain and secondarily over the mountains from the Gila northward to the Jemez and Tusas. A few airmass storms will struggle to develop in the eastern plains, but will also be extremely sparse and isolated. With the pressure heights rising slightly, the wind field aloft will turn more erratic and slower, steering storms much more sluggishly this afternoon, and consequently localized heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will be a threat. Many high resolution CAMs pinpoint the Ruidoso burn scars getting hefty rainfall, so the Flood Watch is well warranted there. Temperatures will stay close to normal in the western half of the forecast area today while readings in the east reach 8 to 12 degrees in many zones with lots of 90's being common. With diurnal heating and just a few evening outflows being the main mechanisms for storm development, much of the activity will subside after sunset this evening.

On Sunday, PWATs will rise much more into AZ and UT, originating in a modified fashion from Marie. This will spread a broader theta-E band over NM, implying more moisture and instability for storms to develop farther west across our forecast area Sunday afternoon. Storms still look to struggle to reach the immediate Four Corners area Sunday, but will certainly increase over the Continental Divide and just west of there. Storm motions would remain sluggish near and east of the central mountain chain, but any cells in west central to northwestern NM would tend to drift a bit quicker at 5 to 15 mph toward the north northeast. The flash flooding threat would be more aligned with slower storm motions, but with PWATs of 1.0 to 1.3 inches, heavy downpours will be capable with just about any storm.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Into Monday, the aforementioned OR low will be ejecting into the northern Rockies while the upper high nudges slightly eastward. This will drag some drier air closer to the Four Corners, but overall most of the moisture in our forecast area will stay intact, keeping storms firing, especially from the Gila northeastward to the Sangre de Cristos. The monsoon plume of moisture will not alter all that much into Tuesday with just a minor west-east elongation and a strengthening of the upper high over the deep southern states. However, if the high continues to elongate like this into Wednesday, it will likely disrupt the plume some, pushing it farther west into AZ. There are indications that a faint frontal boundary would sag into eastern CO Wednesday, but there is not a clear cut consensus that this would seep into northeastern NM.

The high would then start to center closer to AZ and NM into Thursday and Friday in a slightly more weakened state (500 mb heights of 590-594 decameters). With PWATs still staying in a 0.8 to 1.1 inch range for most zones, scattered coverage of storms would still ensue. Overall, temperatures look to keep a similar trend Wednesday through Friday of next week with near normal readings being most common in the western zones and anomalously high readings (by 6 to 12 degrees) staying in the eastern half of the state.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

For today, there are currently no thunderstorms mentioned in any of the Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) across northern and central New Mexico, however there will be batches of scattered cells that develop at a distance. Moisture and instability for storms will be focused mainly along and east of the central mountain chain, but the southwestern mountains to the Jemez and Tusas will also observe isolated to scattered storms. Storms will be slow-moving, leading to heavy downpours which will reduce ceilings and visibility temporarily. Small hail, lots of lightning, and gusty downburst winds to 45 kt will also accompany stronger storms. Storms will develop quickly over the high terrain just before noon, continuing into the early evening with the coverage and number then quickly dwindling and decreasing through the mid to late evening Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The monsoon plume of moisture will be concentrated over the central mountain chain and nearby areas today before broadening a bit and nudging westward on Sunday, and this will be the primary area where storms will be focused with generally just isolated cells on either side. The best moisture and instability looks to stay aligned over the southwestern to northern mountains of NM into Monday and Tuesday. The storm coverage may decrease a bit into Wednesday as the monsoon moisture plume becomes more subdued, but scattered storms will still be common over the northern and western high terrain of NM through Thursday and Friday. Storm motions will tend to turn slower in the coming days, increasing the heavy downpour potential underneath any strong storms, but wetting rainfall will still be spotty or hit-and-miss. No widespread or long duration wind concerns are forecast, just brief and localized outflows that will create strong and erratic gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 85 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 86 46 88 52 / 0 0 10 30 Cuba............................ 82 56 85 58 / 5 5 5 30 Gallup.......................... 83 54 86 56 / 0 5 10 10 El Morro........................ 79 54 83 54 / 5 10 40 30 Grants.......................... 83 56 86 58 / 10 10 30 30 Quemado......................... 80 56 83 57 / 10 10 70 30 Magdalena....................... 81 61 83 61 / 20 20 20 30 Datil........................... 77 57 79 57 / 20 10 50 30 Reserve......................... 86 55 88 59 / 20 10 40 30 Glenwood........................ 94 61 95 62 / 5 20 20 20 Chama........................... 80 50 82 52 / 10 0 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 81 61 83 60 / 40 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 84 58 84 57 / 30 20 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 56 82 56 / 30 10 10 20 Red River....................... 77 45 76 45 / 40 20 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 78 40 79 41 / 50 20 50 20 Taos............................ 84 54 85 55 / 20 10 10 20 Mora............................ 82 54 81 53 / 50 20 60 30 Espanola........................ 88 61 90 63 / 30 10 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 84 62 84 62 / 20 10 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 60 87 61 / 20 10 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 68 89 66 / 20 20 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 66 90 67 / 20 10 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 65 92 66 / 10 10 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 40 Belen........................... 91 64 92 65 / 10 10 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 92 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 90 63 91 64 / 10 10 10 30 Corrales........................ 92 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 40 Los Lunas....................... 91 64 92 65 / 10 10 5 30 Placitas........................ 88 66 87 64 / 20 20 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 91 67 90 67 / 10 10 10 40 Socorro......................... 91 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 61 82 59 / 20 20 40 40 Tijeras......................... 86 62 86 62 / 20 20 40 40 Edgewood........................ 87 58 86 58 / 20 20 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 56 88 56 / 20 20 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 85 59 85 58 / 20 30 30 20 Mountainair..................... 85 58 85 58 / 20 20 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 85 59 85 58 / 30 20 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 89 64 88 62 / 40 20 60 10 Ruidoso......................... 81 57 80 55 / 80 20 60 5 Capulin......................... 86 57 84 58 / 30 30 30 5 Raton........................... 88 55 88 56 / 40 20 20 5 Springer........................ 90 56 89 57 / 30 20 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 85 57 84 56 / 30 30 40 20 Clayton......................... 94 66 92 66 / 20 40 20 10 Roy............................. 89 61 87 61 / 20 30 20 10 Conchas......................... 98 67 96 67 / 20 30 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 92 66 90 65 / 20 40 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 99 69 96 69 / 20 30 10 10 Clovis.......................... 98 68 95 67 / 20 20 5 0 Portales........................ 99 68 95 67 / 20 20 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 97 68 95 68 / 10 20 5 10 Roswell......................... 99 70 98 69 / 10 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 91 62 90 61 / 50 20 10 0 Elk............................. 88 59 87 56 / 60 20 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon for NMZ226.