textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Scattered slow-moving storms will favor the western and northern mountains today. There is a low risk of flash flooding areawide. Storm coverage becomes more isolated Tuesday.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- Temperatures trend hotter this week. Major heat risk is forecast for the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell, Wednesday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An elongated ridge blankets the southern tier of the US today, extending from southern California all the way to the Georgia coastline. Cold pools from Sunday's storms will continue spreading out tonight, with much of this moisture sloshing into western NM. The uptick in sfc moisture will increase the overall coverage of storms this afternoon with at least low chances of rain in all areas outside of the far northwest and far southeast portions of the state. The highest rain chances will be along the Continental Divide and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where PWATs will be in the 0.8- 1.1" range. Steering flow will be weak, but a subtle inverted trough in northern Mexico will add a slight easterly component to storm motions. A Flash Flood Watch was considered for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar, but models were not consistently showing rainfall amounts capable of producing flash flooding over the burn scar. If flash flooding were to occur, it would likely be over the southwest portion of the burn scar since storms will likely slowly trek southward along the ridgeline of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Rising temperatures aloft will tamper instability somewhat today so rainfall rates will struggle to rise above 1"/hour. 90th percentile rainfall amounts from the HREF generally show light amounts areawide, with very isolated pockets of 0.75"+. While an isolated instance or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall flash flood risk will be low areawide today.

The passage of the inverted trough to the south will act to scour out moisture for Tuesday. Storm coverage will trend much lower, with only isolated afternoon storms over the peaks of the northern mountains and the southwest high terrain. The drier air will translate to warmer afternoon temperatures, with highs rising back above average areawide.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Ridging will amplify over The Great Basin on Wednesday, with the centroid of the ridge setting up over the Four Corners. A shortwave moving into the High Plains of Colorado Wednesday afternoon will send a backdoor front southward into eastern New Mexico Wednesday night, replenishing moisture east of the central mountain chain. This will push PWATs slightly above normal (per GEFS and EPS guidance) and translate to a slightly more active day Thursday, with storm coverage highest along the central mountain chain. Recycled moisture will make Friday a repeat of Thursday, with outflow boundaries determining exactly where moisture pools.

The Four Corners high will slowly shift eastward late week, centering itself around the NM/CO border. The high will also be quite strong, with 500 mb heights 594 to 598 dam over New Mexico. So despite near average moisture, storm coverage will be on the low side, with isolated to scattered storms and a relatively low risk of flash flooding.

Long-term guidance is in good agreement that the ridge will continue slowly moving eastward into Texas and Oklahoma next weekend. This will place southerly flow aloft over New Mexico and open up the region to the advection of sub-tropical moisture. The main moisture plume will likely remain off to the west over California and Arizona, but it looks like western NM could be in the fringes of this moisture plume by next weekend. Temperatures may cool a few degrees across the west next weekend, but central and eastern areas will remain hot with well-above normal highs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Scattered storms this afternoon will favor the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Storm motions will be slow towards the southwest, with storms moving off the terrain into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening. Storms will taper off after 00Z, with only a few lingering showers after 03Z. Gusty and erratic winds up to 40 knots will be the main concern with convection this afternoon/evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will focus over the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Steering flow will be weak, with slow and erratic storm motions in most areas. Given the slow steering flow, wetting rainfall will be hard to come by in lower elevation locales.

Storm coverage trends lower on Tuesday as moisture is scoured out. Isolated activity will favor the peaks of the northern mountains and the southwest high terrain. A backdoor front will replenish moisture across the east Wednesday into Thursday, translating to an uptick in storm coverage. Isolated to scattered coverage favors the western and northern mountains Friday through next weekend, with low chances in the eastern plains and the lower elevations of central New Mexico.

Hot temperatures are forecast areawide all week, with highs generally running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon humidities will be low as well, with values bottoming out between 15 and 25% each day. Prevailing winds will generally be light through the next seven days outside of briefly gusty and erratic outflow winds near showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 93 65 95 65 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 90 50 92 51 / 10 5 5 0 Cuba............................ 87 57 90 59 / 30 10 5 10 Gallup.......................... 89 57 90 59 / 20 10 5 5 El Morro........................ 83 55 85 57 / 50 10 30 5 Grants.......................... 87 57 89 59 / 50 20 20 10 Quemado......................... 84 57 86 59 / 50 20 30 10 Magdalena....................... 84 63 86 64 / 40 20 20 0 Datil........................... 80 57 82 59 / 50 10 20 5 Reserve......................... 89 56 89 58 / 60 10 30 5 Glenwood........................ 93 61 94 64 / 70 10 30 0 Chama........................... 83 50 85 52 / 10 5 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 85 61 88 63 / 50 10 30 0 Pecos........................... 83 56 88 58 / 70 20 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 56 86 58 / 20 10 10 5 Red River....................... 74 47 77 48 / 40 20 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 79 38 82 42 / 50 20 10 0 Taos............................ 87 53 90 55 / 20 10 5 5 Mora............................ 81 51 86 54 / 60 20 30 0 Espanola........................ 92 60 95 62 / 30 10 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 85 61 89 64 / 60 10 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 59 91 61 / 50 10 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 67 95 70 / 60 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 65 95 68 / 40 20 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 64 97 67 / 30 20 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 67 96 70 / 40 10 5 0 Belen........................... 94 63 96 65 / 30 10 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 65 97 68 / 40 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 93 62 96 65 / 30 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 95 66 97 69 / 40 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 93 64 96 66 / 30 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 90 65 93 67 / 50 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 93 66 96 69 / 40 10 5 0 Socorro......................... 95 68 97 69 / 20 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 89 63 / 60 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 87 62 89 64 / 50 20 0 0 Edgewood........................ 88 56 91 59 / 40 20 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 54 92 57 / 40 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 57 87 60 / 40 20 5 5 Mountainair..................... 87 57 90 61 / 40 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 58 88 60 / 30 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 88 63 90 65 / 30 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 81 57 83 58 / 30 10 30 5 Capulin......................... 82 57 87 57 / 30 20 5 5 Raton........................... 85 53 90 56 / 40 10 5 0 Springer........................ 88 54 93 56 / 40 10 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 83 55 89 57 / 40 10 10 0 Clayton......................... 89 63 95 65 / 10 20 0 5 Roy............................. 86 59 91 61 / 10 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 94 63 99 68 / 10 5 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 90 62 94 65 / 5 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 94 65 98 70 / 10 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 67 98 68 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 96 68 99 69 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 66 98 68 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 69 99 69 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 91 63 94 64 / 10 5 0 0 Elk............................. 88 59 92 59 / 10 5 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.