textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1139 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Some storms may turn severe over northeast and east central New Mexico this afternoon with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-major heat risk will impact portions of the region on most days through early next week with record-to-near-record high temperatures in some areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The backdoor "cold" front over eastern NM has surged south past I-40 this morning with surface dewpoints rising into the 50s and 60s over northeast NM. The front will serve as a trigger for more storms today. 12Z CAMs trended coverage greater today from the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts to the Sandia/Manzanos and around Corona. A quick update to raise PoPs and lower max temps slightly has been posted.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Early this morning, a moist backdoor front will move southwestward through the northeast and east central plains, eventually banking up against the east slopes of the Manzano, Sandia, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The stalled front will then provide a trigger for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. In addition, an upper level trough will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft today invigorating thunderstorm activity with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms over much of the forecast area, except for numerous cells along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and near Glenwood. Bulk shear around 25-35 KT and CAPE around 1000-3300 J/KG should enable some severe storms to develop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon and early evening. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible over the south central and southwest mountains. Further, NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates that a few locations along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and across the northeast and far northeast highlands, could accumulate over 2 inches of rain with a risk of localized flash flooding this afternoon and evening. Some of the shortwave energy with the upper level trough will linger over NM tonight into Thursday, enabling some showers and thunderstorms to persist over central and eastern areas during the late night hours, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to return to much of the forecast area on Thursday afternoon and evening. Shear and instability again look sufficient for a few strong to severe storms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain on Thursday afternoon and early evening.

A roughly 596 DAM mid-level high pressure system aloft centered over and just west of the NM/AZ border today will migrate northward over the Four Corners on Thursday. High temperatures today will climb a few to around 5 degrees most places, except for a few to 5 degrees of cooling across northeast areas behind the front. A few valley locations around Albuquerque and Farmington will probably reach 100 F today, but Heat Risk is only forecast to be moderate in most locations, so will forego a Heat Advisory. On Thursday, continued moisture influx from the east and southeast will cause high temperatures to fall a few to around 4 degrees in most locations.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The high pressure center over the Four Corners is forecast to drift eastward along or just north of the CO border on Friday, to reach the northeast corner of NM Saturday, then drift southward along NM's eastern border to near I-40 on Sunday; where it will probably stall through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return along and west of the central mountain chain Friday. Drier air will then move over southern and eventually western parts of the forecast area from the southeast over the weekend with a downtick in storm coverage each day. By Monday and Tuesday, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor locations along the CO/NM border, with spottier cells over the western mountains.

Temperature-wise, highs will trend a few degrees cooler in the west Friday and Saturday, while trending warmer central and east. Then, warmer readings are forecast area-wide Sunday and Monday. Readings will continue to vary around 5-11 F above 1991-2020 averages. Monday night and Tuesday, some models depict a moist backdoor front sagging southward through the eastern plains with cooler temperatures there and the potential for increased thunderstorm coverage.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

SHRA/TS will continue forming over the higher terrain thru the afternoon and move erratically southward into nearby lowlands thru this evening. Strong outflow wind gusts >40KT are possible with the stronger cells along with hail and heavy rainfall. Brief MVFR vsbys may occur from direct hits. The focus for a few severe storms will be over northeast NM between 1PM and 8PM. Showers are expected to persist thru 3AM within central NM, including the Rio Grande Valley. Partial clearing will then occur thru sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas of sub-15 percent minimum humidity will return today over southern, central and western parts of the fire weather forecast area. Humidities will climb above 15 percent on Thursday (except over northwest areas), then over all but the Four Corners on Friday. Areas of sub-15 percent humidity will increase in coverage each day Saturday through Tuesday. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will be most widespread today through Friday, then relegated mainly to northern and western areas this weekend and early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 99 65 99 65 / 0 5 10 30 Dulce........................... 93 51 94 50 / 10 10 30 20 Cuba............................ 92 59 92 58 / 10 20 30 30 Gallup.......................... 92 58 92 58 / 10 30 10 10 El Morro........................ 88 57 88 56 / 20 30 40 30 Grants.......................... 92 59 93 59 / 10 30 20 30 Quemado......................... 89 60 88 59 / 20 30 40 30 Magdalena....................... 90 64 90 64 / 20 30 20 30 Datil........................... 87 59 86 59 / 30 20 50 30 Reserve......................... 93 58 94 57 / 40 20 50 20 Glenwood........................ 96 62 97 62 / 60 20 50 20 Chama........................... 86 52 86 52 / 30 30 70 20 Los Alamos...................... 89 62 89 63 / 30 40 20 30 Pecos........................... 90 58 88 57 / 40 50 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 57 87 57 / 30 60 30 40 Red River....................... 84 46 80 47 / 40 60 60 40 Angel Fire...................... 83 41 82 41 / 50 60 70 30 Taos............................ 91 55 90 55 / 20 60 30 30 Mora............................ 87 54 85 54 / 50 60 60 30 Espanola........................ 97 62 96 62 / 20 40 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 91 63 90 63 / 20 40 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 61 93 60 / 10 40 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 69 95 68 / 20 40 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 67 96 66 / 10 40 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 66 99 65 / 10 30 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 69 98 68 / 10 30 10 30 Belen........................... 100 66 99 65 / 5 30 10 30 Bernalillo...................... 100 67 98 67 / 20 30 10 30 Bosque Farms.................... 99 64 98 63 / 10 30 20 30 Corrales........................ 100 68 99 68 / 10 30 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 100 66 98 65 / 5 30 10 30 Placitas........................ 95 66 93 66 / 20 40 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 99 68 97 67 / 10 30 10 30 Socorro......................... 101 70 100 69 / 5 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 61 89 61 / 20 50 40 30 Tijeras......................... 93 63 92 62 / 20 50 40 30 Edgewood........................ 94 59 92 58 / 30 50 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 57 93 55 / 30 40 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 90 59 88 59 / 40 40 50 30 Mountainair..................... 92 59 91 58 / 30 30 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 91 60 90 59 / 30 30 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 94 67 94 65 / 30 30 40 30 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 85 60 / 50 20 40 20 Capulin......................... 85 56 85 57 / 60 70 30 20 Raton........................... 90 55 89 56 / 70 70 40 30 Springer........................ 93 56 90 55 / 60 60 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 88 56 / 70 50 50 30 Clayton......................... 89 63 91 64 / 5 30 5 10 Roy............................. 91 60 89 60 / 50 40 20 20 Conchas......................... 98 66 96 65 / 20 30 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 92 63 / 20 40 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 98 66 96 64 / 20 20 5 20 Clovis.......................... 100 67 98 67 / 10 30 10 30 Portales........................ 101 67 98 67 / 10 30 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 100 67 97 66 / 20 30 10 20 Roswell......................... 103 70 101 70 / 0 10 5 10 Picacho......................... 97 66 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 Elk............................. 94 62 93 61 / 20 10 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.