textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Wednesday across the lower elevations of central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

- Localized erratic wind gust to 50mph or greater from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall, late Wednesday across much of western and northern New Mexico.

- Moderate chance (50-70%) of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday. Moderate chance (50-70%) on Sunday and Monday across much of the area.

- Moderate chance (40-60%) for southwest winds to reach advisory criteria on Sunday across much of the area.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

The 18Z KABQ upper air sounding measured a 500mb height of 591dam, which is a calendar day record 500mb height. Record and near- record heat at the surface this afternoon correlates with the anomalously high pressure heights, with KABQ forecast to tie today's record high of 93 degrees. The upper level ridge is forecast to shift slowly east of NM on Wednesday, allowing moisture to increase from the southwest in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The extra bump in PWATs, coupled with daytime heating, will be sufficient to produce a crop of high-based convection across western and northern NM Wednesday afternoon that will favor strong/erratic wind gusts vs wetting (>0.10") rainfall. The 12Z NAM is advertising pockets of dCAPE reaching 2,000+J/kg west of the central mountain chain by 21Z Wednesday, which should be good for a few gusts to greater than 50mph. Dry convection will progress into northeast NM early Wednesday evening, bringing strong/erratic wind gusts from the I-25 corridor to near Capulin. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a hot one too, with well above average high temperatures and a minor to moderate heat risk for sensitive populations.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

An upper level trough/low racing east across the northern and central Rockies on Thursday will steer stronger westerlies over NM. Daytime heating will bring deep layer mixing of the atmosphere Thursday afternoon, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions, especially across east central and northeast NM. Downslope warming on Thursday is forecast to boost Roswell's high temperature to 100 degrees. Winds will trend down Friday, but the heat will continue with well above average temperatures. Winds aloft will back and increase this weekend in advance of an upstream trough/low moving southeast from over the Great Basin. The result will be increasingly windy conditions that will be most notable on Sunday as a lee side trough deepens to between 985-989mb across eastern CO. At this time, there is a moderate chance (40-60%) of wind speeds exceeding advisory threshold on Sunday across much of the area. The upper level trough is forecast to move east through the central/southern Rockies on Monday, bringing strong westerly winds to much of our area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR prevails through Wednesday morning, alongside light afternoon breezes becoming light and variable tonight. A brief period of modest easterlies reaching around the southern portion of the Sangre de Cristo's into KSAF and thru the gaps of the Sandia/Manzano Mts to KABQ could be a slight interruption to this rule b/w 10Z and 15Z Wednesday morning. Otherwise, isolated to scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms along the Continental Divide look to bring strong and erratic wind gusts to western and central terminals Wednesday afternoon. Have included PROB30s for this at KFMN-KGUP-KABQ-KAEG-KSAF. Uneventful prevailing southerlies return to southeastern and east-central NM, including KROW Wednesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

An upper high is bringing hot and dry conditions today, but will move east on Wednesday and allow moisture to move northeast into the area, resulting in a round of virga showers and dry storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Lightning activity will be fairly limited Wednesday, but any ignitions could grow on Thursday given stronger westerly winds and very dry conditions forecast. Many hours of single digit humidity are forecast Thursday across the lower elevations. Deep layer mixing of the atmosphere on Thursday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions by afternoon with large sustained/gust spreads. In addition, ERCs are forecast to increase this week and should be supportive of fire spread by Thursday. That said, a Fire Weather Watch has been hoisted for much of eastern NM for Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds decrease Friday, but very dry conditions persist. Backing and strengthening winds aloft this weekend ahead of an approaching upper level trough/low will bring back the threat for critical fire weather conditions over a larger area on Sunday. The trough is forecast to move east through the central/southern Rockies on Monday, bringing strong westerly wind to NM and potentially more critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 88 48 84 / 0 10 10 0 Dulce........................... 43 85 43 80 / 0 5 20 0 Cuba............................ 49 82 47 78 / 0 10 10 0 Gallup.......................... 47 84 42 81 / 0 10 10 0 El Morro........................ 48 81 44 77 / 0 10 10 0 Grants.......................... 49 84 45 82 / 0 20 10 0 Quemado......................... 50 82 45 80 / 10 10 5 0 Magdalena....................... 57 84 54 83 / 0 10 5 5 Datil........................... 52 80 49 80 / 5 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 48 86 43 84 / 5 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 91 46 87 / 0 5 0 0 Chama........................... 41 79 40 74 / 0 5 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 83 57 80 / 0 10 10 0 Pecos........................... 49 83 50 80 / 0 10 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 80 48 76 / 0 10 10 5 Red River....................... 41 71 42 67 / 0 10 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 38 76 42 72 / 0 10 10 0 Taos............................ 48 84 48 81 / 0 5 10 0 Mora............................ 47 81 51 79 / 0 10 10 0 Espanola........................ 55 89 55 86 / 0 5 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 53 84 53 81 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 87 52 84 / 0 5 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 88 60 86 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 90 58 87 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 92 57 90 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 90 57 88 / 0 5 5 0 Belen........................... 56 92 55 91 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 91 58 88 / 0 5 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 92 53 90 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 57 91 57 89 / 0 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 53 92 53 90 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 60 88 60 85 / 0 5 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 58 90 58 88 / 0 5 10 0 Socorro......................... 62 94 61 93 / 0 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 84 56 81 / 0 5 5 0 Tijeras......................... 56 85 56 83 / 0 5 5 0 Edgewood........................ 54 86 55 83 / 0 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 87 45 85 / 0 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 83 54 81 / 0 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 54 86 54 84 / 0 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 60 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 80 61 80 / 5 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 44 81 50 83 / 10 10 10 10 Raton........................... 46 85 50 86 / 10 10 10 5 Springer........................ 47 87 51 88 / 10 10 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 49 83 54 82 / 0 10 10 5 Clayton......................... 51 86 58 91 / 10 5 5 10 Roy............................. 50 84 55 87 / 10 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 55 93 61 95 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 53 91 57 92 / 0 0 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 56 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 56 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 56 96 60 97 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 56 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 61 98 63 100 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 57 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 56 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.