textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage today and Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads.

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week, as record and near-record high temperatures return each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

With a 597 DAM high pressure system over the state, high temperatures will generally continue to trend upward through Monday, when readings will peak around 5-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Record and near record high temperatures are forecast both days. The NBM, which did a pretty good job on the high temperature forecast for Saturday, predicts a temperature of 105 F for Roswell on Monday, which is the Heat Advisory criteria for the Chavs County plains. Will let the day shift issue the Heat Advisory for Monday if conditions still look supportive of reaching the criteria there.

Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return to western and northern areas today and Monday. High res models depict spottier cells developing on the eastern plains as far south as Highway 60 late in the day. Northeast and east central areas should see an uptick in storm coverage on Monday, when a somewhat moist backdoor front will enter from the northeast, while disturbances in northwest flow aloft clip the northeast corner of the state. Bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 25-40 KT and CAPE up to 1800 J/KG should enable a few strong to severe storms to develop on the northeast and east central plains during the afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Models generally depict the center of the ~597 DAM high pressure system aloft varying its position around central and southern NM until Wednesday, when it is forecast to shift over the southwest NM/southeast AZ border through at least Saturday. Disturbances in northwest flow aloft will continue to increase storm coverage over central and eastern areas Tuesday, then over western areas as well Wednesday and Thursday, after moist outflow from storms on the eastern plains pushes its way over western parts of the state. Gulf moisture will increase PWATs over eastern areas to around 1.10" on Tuesday, then around 1.35" on Wednesday, enabling storms to produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash flooding. NBM 90th Percentile QPF indicates a few parts of the northeast plains may accumulate nearly 3 inches of rain Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, with locally over 1 inch along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and on parts of the east central plains.

The increased convection on the eastern plains, and the southwestward migration of the high pressure center aloft, will enable high temperatures on the eastern plains to trend downward during the middle of the week; while remaining a few to several degrees above 30-year averages. Meanwhile, record and near-record high temperatures will persist across central and western parts of the state.

Friday and Saturday a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity is forecast with each day as the amplitude of the high pressure system over the southwest NM border decreases and a ridge axis extends westward over north TX. The storm track will also become less active, enabling drier and more zonal flow over northern NM. This will enable temperatures to trend upward again on the eastern plains starting Thursday, and over western areas as well starting Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish during the late night hours. Sunday afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are again expected over northern and western areas, with spottier activity potentially developing as far south as Clovis, Fort Sumner, Clines Corners, Moriarty, and Rio Rancho. Storm motion on Sunday should generally be toward the east around 10-15 KT. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Record and near-record high temperatures will make density altitude and important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over east central areas again today. Sub-15 percent humidities will then shift mainly over central and northwest areas on Monday. Increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains during the first half of the week should spread into western areas well with thunderstorm outflows moving in that direction each evening Tuesday through mid week; including moderately strong easterly gap winds below canyons opening into the central valley. Until modest Gulf moisture pushes into western areas mid-week, the size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande will decrease with each day today through Tuesday. This will result in an increasing threat of new fire starts as spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each afternoon, and temperatures reach near-record readings. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each day through Monday, then increase Tuesday through Thursday, before decreasing again end week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 63 94 63 / 10 20 5 0 Dulce........................... 89 50 91 51 / 20 20 10 0 Cuba............................ 88 59 90 59 / 20 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 91 56 90 57 / 30 20 20 0 El Morro........................ 86 56 87 56 / 30 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 89 57 90 59 / 40 20 20 5 Quemado......................... 87 58 88 58 / 30 10 20 5 Magdalena....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 5 Datil........................... 85 58 86 59 / 20 10 20 10 Reserve......................... 94 58 95 59 / 10 10 20 0 Glenwood........................ 99 65 100 65 / 10 10 20 0 Chama........................... 83 51 85 52 / 30 20 30 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 62 88 63 / 40 30 20 10 Pecos........................... 88 60 89 59 / 20 20 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 55 85 55 / 60 20 30 20 Red River....................... 74 48 76 48 / 40 20 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 81 43 82 43 / 20 20 50 20 Taos............................ 88 54 89 55 / 40 20 20 20 Mora............................ 86 55 86 55 / 20 20 50 20 Espanola........................ 94 60 95 62 / 20 30 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 61 93 61 / 20 20 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 69 97 69 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 67 99 67 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 97 69 / 10 20 5 0 Belen........................... 98 66 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 66 98 67 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 66 95 67 / 20 20 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 67 98 68 / 20 20 5 0 Socorro......................... 100 70 100 70 / 10 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 92 59 93 60 / 20 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 57 95 58 / 20 10 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 89 61 90 61 / 20 10 10 5 Mountainair..................... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 62 / 10 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 67 96 68 / 10 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 62 88 63 / 10 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 88 57 87 57 / 40 30 50 50 Raton........................... 91 55 91 55 / 50 30 60 30 Springer........................ 94 56 93 56 / 40 20 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 97 65 96 65 / 40 20 30 60 Roy............................. 94 60 93 61 / 20 30 20 40 Conchas......................... 102 67 101 67 / 20 20 5 30 Santa Rosa...................... 98 66 98 65 / 20 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 102 69 101 68 / 20 20 5 20 Clovis.......................... 101 71 102 69 / 20 10 5 20 Portales........................ 101 72 103 70 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 101 70 102 69 / 20 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 103 72 105 72 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 98 67 99 67 / 10 0 5 0 Elk............................. 95 64 97 64 / 10 10 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.