textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms storms will favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk of lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding. - There will be a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars through Thursday, then at least a low to moderate risk Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Monsoon moisture with seasonably moist PWATs will remain in place through the weekend as mid level high pressure centers persist over the CO/WY border and also on the TX/LA coast, and a weak upper level low remains stalled over west TX. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will generally drift westward off the high terrain each afternoon and evening, although some storms will move more slowly and erratically. Some cells will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour with a risk of isolated flash flooding daily, especially over southern and western parts of the forecast area. At this time, the flash flood risk looks like it will be enhanced Friday through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system tracks inland over the Pacific northwest drawing somewhat richer monsoon moisture northward over NM. Wet microburst wind gusts may approach 60 mph from a few cells each day.

With all of the moisture and convection, high temps will vary from near to around 8 degrees below 1991-2020 averages from day to day. Readings are forecast to climb a few to around 5 degrees above the averages over northeast NM this weekend as the upper high north of NM begins to drift a bit farther east.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

During the first half of the coming work week, the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding looks to continue along and west of the central mountain chain as the aforementioned upper highs consolidate into a stronger high pressure system elongated along an axis from eastern CO to OK, and another upper level low pressure system moves inland over the Pacific northwest drawing rich monsoon moisture northward over AZ and western NM. The west TX upper low will drift westward then northward with this rich monsoon flow, but models generally depict it enhancing convection over northwest Mexico and AZ, rather than NM. Storms will begin to stream more toward the northwest at a little faster pace Monday and Tuesday, then more toward the north northwest on Wednesday. The stronger high pressure system northeast of NM will produce hotter temperatures over central and eastern parts of the forecast area, where daily highs Monday through Wednesday should generally climb a few to around 5 degrees above 30-year averages. Meanwhile, readings farther west will continue to vary from a few to around 6 degrees below average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Some light rain showers are forecast to linger into the late night hours over western areas. On Thursday, Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and west of the central mountain chain, except for more numerous cells over the northern and western mountains, and northwest highlands. Storm motion Saturday will be toward the west and southwest at speeds around 5-10 mph. Some cells may have slow and erratic motion. Wet microbursts are expected with a few of the stronger cells capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts over 50 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With seasonably rich monsoon moisture in place, the main fire weather concerns over the next week will be strong and erratic thunderstorm outflow, as well as lightning. Wetting rainfall will be most likely along and west of the central mountain chain each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 91 62 89 62 / 40 40 30 40 Dulce........................... 86 48 85 48 / 80 50 70 30 Cuba............................ 82 56 81 55 / 40 40 60 50 Gallup.......................... 84 53 81 52 / 50 50 60 50 El Morro........................ 79 54 78 54 / 60 50 60 50 Grants.......................... 84 55 82 55 / 60 40 50 40 Quemado......................... 79 55 79 55 / 70 40 60 60 Magdalena....................... 81 61 81 61 / 40 20 50 40 Datil........................... 76 57 77 57 / 60 30 60 40 Reserve......................... 82 53 83 53 / 80 30 70 50 Glenwood........................ 87 55 87 54 / 70 30 60 50 Chama........................... 78 47 78 47 / 80 60 70 30 Los Alamos...................... 81 62 81 61 / 40 30 60 30 Pecos........................... 81 54 81 53 / 50 30 80 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 54 79 54 / 80 40 60 30 Red River....................... 70 46 71 46 / 80 40 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 75 40 75 40 / 70 40 70 20 Taos............................ 81 51 81 50 / 70 40 60 20 Mora............................ 77 52 78 51 / 50 30 70 20 Espanola........................ 89 60 88 59 / 40 30 50 20 Santa Fe........................ 82 61 82 60 / 50 30 70 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 59 85 57 / 30 30 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 66 88 65 / 30 30 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 63 89 63 / 20 30 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 63 91 62 / 10 20 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 66 90 65 / 10 30 40 50 Belen........................... 91 62 91 61 / 10 20 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 91 65 91 64 / 20 30 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 90 61 90 60 / 10 20 30 40 Corrales........................ 92 65 91 64 / 20 30 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 91 63 91 62 / 10 20 30 40 Placitas........................ 87 65 86 64 / 30 40 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 91 65 90 64 / 20 30 40 50 Socorro......................... 93 68 93 67 / 20 20 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 60 82 59 / 40 30 60 30 Tijeras......................... 84 60 83 59 / 30 30 60 40 Edgewood........................ 85 57 85 55 / 30 20 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 53 86 52 / 20 20 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 81 55 81 54 / 20 10 50 20 Mountainair..................... 85 56 85 55 / 20 20 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 83 57 83 56 / 20 10 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 86 62 85 62 / 30 10 60 40 Ruidoso......................... 78 55 78 56 / 40 10 70 30 Capulin......................... 79 53 81 52 / 10 10 10 5 Raton........................... 84 53 85 53 / 30 10 20 10 Springer........................ 85 55 86 54 / 10 10 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 80 55 81 54 / 30 20 50 20 Clayton......................... 87 61 89 61 / 0 5 5 5 Roy............................. 83 58 84 58 / 0 10 20 10 Conchas......................... 91 63 92 63 / 0 10 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 86 61 87 61 / 0 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 91 64 91 64 / 0 5 10 10 Clovis.......................... 88 63 88 63 / 0 5 20 10 Portales........................ 89 63 89 63 / 0 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 90 64 90 64 / 0 5 10 10 Roswell......................... 90 67 91 66 / 0 5 20 10 Picacho......................... 86 61 86 61 / 10 0 40 10 Elk............................. 83 57 84 57 / 20 5 70 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.