textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk remains across much of New Mexico, especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are expected through Monday over central and western New Mexico.

- Limited afternoon thunderstorm activity continues today and Monday, slowly increasing thru next week. Risk of flash flooding returns to central and western New Mexico late week.

- Smoke from wildfires across the western United States may continue to impact air quality across parts of New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The monsoon high remains situated over the Four Corners today with the 18Z ABQ sounding observing a 597dm H5 height and 0.94" PW. This will yield another round scattered virga showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western and northern mountains this afternoon. These 40F to 50F Td depressions will yield DCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg beneath the base of many of these showers, capable of yielding strong gusty and erratic winds emanating from any nearby shower or isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, most areas will continue to see dry and hot conditions this afternoon as a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Northwest Plateau (Farmington). Conditions calm overnight with another round of above normal low temperatures heading into Monday morning.

Monday sees little to no sensible weather change from today with the monsoon high continuing its slow weakening to ~595dm at H5, still mostly centered over northwestern NM. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the western and northern high terrain midday before drifting over surrounding lower elevations of central and western NM is forecast. Rain efficiency of these cells will be slightly better than today, but wetting footprints will remain hard to come by. High temperatures also take another step down a degree or two relative to Sunday's readings.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Tuesday begins the long term period with the center of the monsoon high still lingering along the NM/CO border near 595dm. With slightly weakening suppression beneath the ridge, a slightly healthier crop of afternoon thunderstorms is favored to again develop over the western and northern mountains. Slow storm motions will drift cells over surrounding highlands and lower elevations late afternoon and evening.

Wednesday sees the high recenter along the Gulf Coast with a notable tap of monsoonal moisture pushing northward from the Gulf of CA into the Desert Southwest. PWs rise to near seasonal normals around 1.00" allowing for a much healthier crop of afternoon thunderstorms to develop mainly along and west of the Continental Divide. Storm motions will favor a SSW/NNE motion over the western half to two- thirds of the state. Locally heavy rainfall from these storms will threaten flash flooding in poorly drained areas and recent burn scars. This weather pattern of monsoonal moisture from the EPAC and Gulf of CA being pushed into the Desert Southwest along the western periphery of the high along the Gulf Coast continues Thursday and into next weekend. Daily rounds of robust and healthy afternoon convection will continue to favor mainly the western half to two- thirds of NM. High temperatures will also trend lower during this time, to near or below normal across the Land of Enchantment.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Isolated afternoon thunderstorm activity today will again favor development over the western and northern mountains, struggling to move over nearby highlands and lower elevations late afternoon and evening. There are moderate confidence PROB30s at KSAF and KABQ for this. Will need to watch for how much smoke from the Frijoles Fire can make it to KSAF late day and this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Above normal heat and very dry conditions continue today alongside light to modest prevailing wind speeds. Deep mixing coupled with the aforementioned heat and dryness will continue to allow ongoing fires to burn hot today. Scattered virga and isolated thunderstorm activity developing over the western and northern mountains will again threaten strong erratic gusty winds where they do pop-up. This will continue a risk of dangerous fire behavior where these gusty winds encounter an ongoing fire. Otherwise, the light to modest prevailing winds will be the limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions. Monday and Tuesday see the monsoon high over NM continue to weaken allowing for a slow retreat in high temperatures from recent near record to record heat. A more notable increase in moisture and overnight recoveries will occur Wednesday and beyond as the high recenters itself along the Gulf Coast. This will bring in a notable uptick in monsoonal moisture into the Desert Southwest, mainly the western half to two-thirds of NM where a substantial uptick in daily rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is forecast. This will also increase the risk of flash flooding, notably over recent burn scars, where locally heavy rainfall occurs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 98 65 96 / 0 0 10 5 Dulce........................... 53 94 52 93 / 0 5 10 40 Cuba............................ 61 94 59 91 / 5 10 20 20 Gallup.......................... 60 92 58 90 / 20 30 20 20 El Morro........................ 57 87 56 85 / 10 40 20 50 Grants.......................... 61 92 59 91 / 10 30 20 40 Quemado......................... 60 88 59 86 / 20 30 30 50 Magdalena....................... 64 90 64 89 / 10 10 10 40 Datil........................... 59 86 59 85 / 20 40 10 50 Reserve......................... 57 92 56 90 / 20 30 10 50 Glenwood........................ 62 96 60 94 / 20 30 5 50 Chama........................... 53 88 52 85 / 0 10 10 50 Los Alamos...................... 64 90 62 89 / 5 30 30 30 Pecos........................... 58 92 59 91 / 10 20 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 59 89 58 87 / 5 10 20 20 Red River....................... 50 80 49 78 / 5 20 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 39 85 41 83 / 0 20 20 60 Taos............................ 56 93 56 90 / 0 10 20 20 Mora............................ 55 89 55 87 / 5 30 20 50 Espanola........................ 63 98 62 97 / 5 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 64 93 64 91 / 5 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 95 61 93 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 98 70 96 / 10 0 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 98 68 97 / 10 0 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 99 67 99 / 10 0 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 99 70 98 / 10 0 20 10 Belen........................... 66 100 66 99 / 10 0 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 68 100 68 99 / 10 0 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 65 98 65 98 / 10 0 10 10 Corrales........................ 70 100 69 99 / 10 0 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 67 99 67 98 / 10 0 10 10 Placitas........................ 68 96 68 95 / 10 0 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 70 99 69 98 / 10 0 20 10 Socorro......................... 70 101 70 100 / 5 0 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 91 63 90 / 20 5 20 20 Tijeras......................... 64 93 64 92 / 20 5 20 20 Edgewood........................ 59 93 59 92 / 20 10 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 95 57 94 / 20 10 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 61 91 61 90 / 20 20 20 30 Mountainair..................... 61 93 60 93 / 20 5 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 10 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 65 94 67 95 / 0 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 87 61 88 / 0 10 5 20 Capulin......................... 60 90 59 89 / 5 20 10 30 Raton........................... 57 94 57 93 / 5 10 5 30 Springer........................ 57 96 57 95 / 5 10 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 58 92 57 91 / 10 10 10 40 Clayton......................... 68 98 68 98 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 63 93 63 93 / 20 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 68 101 69 101 / 5 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 97 66 98 / 5 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 68 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 67 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 59 92 61 93 / 0 5 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201.