textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A localized risk of rapid fire spread due to dry and gusty conditions will continue through the early evening over the northeast highlands of New Mexico.

- Widespread rain arrives late Thursday through early Saturday with several inches of high mountain snow accumulating in northern New Mexico. Winter travel conditions are likely in the northern mountains, especially Thursday night and Friday.

- Gusty east crosswinds will develop below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 241 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Locally breezy conditions continue across New Mexico today as tightening 500mb and 700mb pressure gradients increase the momentum transfer to the surface. The 18z ABQ sounding showed a well-mixed layer up to 700mb, and would likely increase in height as the afternoon went on. The backdoor front that pushed through eastern NM last night has allowed southerly return flow across the area. With both the western winds in western and central NM, and the southerly winds in eastern NM, gusts up to 25-30mph are likely through the early evening hours. Alongside this, a weak shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery, traversing west to east across the NM/CO border. This feature has the low chance to develop a few showers across northeast NM this afternoon and evening, but likely nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch of liquid precipitation. Temperatures today remain near average, with highs in the high 60s to low 80s.

The previous backdoor front/return flow gets a resurgent push late tonight and into tomorrow morning, providing an influx of near- surface moisture to much of eastern NM. This should be enough to generate some low clouds near the NM/TX border from Clayton down to Clovis. This surface moisture will also be beneficial to support the upcoming system and its desire to bring widespread rain and mountain snow. Before this, a 250mb jet streak will be exiting to the east, in an east-west orientation near the KS/OK border. The right entrance region of this jet may reside over far northeast NM just long enough to generate some showers across that portion of the state Thursday afternoon, but this is a lower confidence scenario. The higher confidence scenario resides in the approaching shortwave trough from the west. This trough is highly likely to move along the AZ/Mexico border through Thursday and remain as a closed low. It is then forecast to reach the bootheel of NM and open up into an open wave. Concurrently, the resurging moisture will be tracking east/southeast, and cross-sections of the moisture boundary show adequate omega values indicating sufficient lift. As the trough approaches NM, the dynamics of the downstream region of the trough and collocated diffluence aloft will produce widespread synoptic lift, especially across southeast NM. Additionally, the upslope easterly flow combined with subtle but apparent lift in the northern mountains will allow for several inches of snow, especially across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Pass. This precipitation event is likely to begin Thursday afternoon and evening, peak late Thursday night and early Friday morning, and then slowly taper off through Friday. Widespread liquid precipitation amounts of 0.5-1.25" are expected along and east of the central mountain chain from Thursday afternoon through late Friday night. Areas west of the central mountain chain should see up to 0.5", decreasing the further west you go.

For snowfall, snow levels should initially be around 9,000-10,000ft Thursday afternoon, continuously decreasing through Thursday night into Friday morning behind a cold front to 7,000- 8,000ft. With this, the heaviest snowfall is expected late Thursday night into Friday morning, with a second period of heavier snow likely Friday afternoon. Snow amounts are favored to be around 3-8" between 7,500-9,500ft, with amounts 8-14" above 9,500ft. Locally higher amounts may be observed near the peaks of the mountains. With this, the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The Tusas Mountains are also forecast to get up to 6" across their higher elevations, however this is likely to come later in the day on Friday with that second period of heavier snowfall. They will likely need a Winter Weather Advisory, but will hold off on that issuance given the longer time until it occurs. Snow-liquid ratios should also sit at or below 10:1 (except above 9,500ft), which is a signal for a wetter, heavier snow. While confidence in this is low, there is a chance that wet accumulating snow could affect power lines and trees.

While most of the atmosphere is forecast to be too stable for thunderstorms to develop, there is a low to moderate chance for a few rumbles of thunder. The first chance will be along the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon as upslope flow mixes with peak heating. A second, lower chance will be across southern NM, including the Sacramento Mountains overnight Thursday as the peak synoptic lift settles overhead. The third chance is on Friday as the front pushes into western NM through the afternoon. This third chance has the highest chances of thunder through the event.

Outside of precipitation, the surging moisture/cold front is forecast to push up and through the gaps of the central mountain chain late Thursday into Friday morning and produce a gusty gap wind in ABQ and Santa Fe. MOS guidance has come up on the strength of the gap wind, and that is likely due to the track of the shortwave to our south. This is a good setup that can siphon the front through the mountains, increasing the speed. Gusts up to 45-50mph may be observed immediately downwind of the canyons, and it is possible a Wind Advisory may be needed (~50% chance).

The system is forecast to move out of the area later in the day on Friday, though remnant rain and high elevation snow showers should remain as there should be abundant moisture present.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Weak ridging with embedded shortwaves are the name of the game for the weekend. The remnant moisture from the late week system is likely going to remain in the area, and this should allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the state on Saturday. Isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm are possible mainly across the high terrain on Sunday. An approaching, rather large in size low looks to move into western CONUS at the beginning of next week, and moving towards the state by the middle of next week. There is rather good agreement from the models on the strength of the low, but there is timing and evolution differences (mainly from the amount of moisture it provides and in what form it moves over the state). Nonetheless, it appears that precipitation is once again favored for the northern portions of New Mexico, especially on Tuesday, while southern NM looks favored for a more dry and windy pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026 A moisture boundary remains draped across eastern NM from just west of KRTN, to just east of KLVS, to just west of KROW. East of the boundary, southeast winds gusting near 20 or 25kt will persist or increase through the evening hours. After midnight, winds will becoming more easterly with the boundary backing up at least to the central mountain chain. In fact, a weak east wind should eek through the gaps of the central mountain chain around sunrise. Elsewhere, westerly winds gusting between 25 and 35kt will persist through approx 02Z, becoming light thereafter. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon along the east slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of northeast NM. Another, likely much stronger, gap wind is expected in the Rio Grande Valley Thursday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

After brief, locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, widespread rain and mountain snow looks to put a damper on fire concerns for the next few days. A surge of moisture looks to take place tonight behind another cold front, and minimum humidity values are likely going to be in the 40-50% across eastern NM Thursday while remaining below 15% in central and western NM (though with rather light winds, so no critical fire weather concerns). Precipitation looks to begin Thursday afternoon and evening, first across the northern mountains, then spreading to all of eastern NM Thursday night into Friday. Widespread amounts between 0.5-1" are likely in eastern NM, with amounts up to 0.5" west of the central mountain chain (decreasing the further west you go). Several inches of snow are likely in the northern mountains and specifically in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where up to 14" may fall mainly above 9,500ft, with 3-8" below. A gusty gap wind in ABQ early Friday morning will be the only wind concern for this system. Remnant showers and thunderstorms are favored Saturday and Sunday before an approaching system brings chances for more precipitation in the northern mountains, along with breezy and drier conditions in southern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 38 70 39 67 / 0 0 5 40 Dulce........................... 25 67 29 60 / 0 10 40 90 Cuba............................ 36 67 35 56 / 0 10 60 90 Gallup.......................... 33 69 31 64 / 0 5 10 40 El Morro........................ 36 66 36 59 / 0 5 20 60 Grants.......................... 33 71 36 61 / 0 5 30 70 Quemado......................... 38 68 38 64 / 0 5 20 50 Magdalena....................... 47 70 43 56 / 0 5 60 70 Datil........................... 41 67 40 57 / 0 5 40 70 Reserve......................... 36 75 36 71 / 0 10 30 40 Glenwood........................ 41 78 40 77 / 0 10 40 40 Chama........................... 27 60 29 52 / 0 30 60 90 Los Alamos...................... 45 64 41 50 / 0 40 80 90 Pecos........................... 38 62 34 46 / 10 60 100 100 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 61 34 49 / 20 70 90 100 Red River....................... 27 49 27 37 / 30 80 100 100 Angel Fire...................... 23 53 23 40 / 30 80 100 100 Taos............................ 30 65 31 53 / 10 60 90 100 Mora............................ 34 57 29 42 / 20 80 100 100 Espanola........................ 41 71 41 58 / 0 40 80 90 Santa Fe........................ 44 65 41 50 / 5 50 90 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 68 40 53 / 0 40 90 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 73 45 56 / 0 20 80 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 75 44 58 / 0 20 80 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 78 44 61 / 0 10 80 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 75 47 60 / 0 10 70 70 Belen........................... 43 77 44 62 / 0 10 80 70 Bernalillo...................... 48 76 45 59 / 0 20 80 80 Bosque Farms.................... 41 77 42 61 / 0 10 80 70 Corrales........................ 48 77 46 61 / 0 20 80 70 Los Lunas....................... 43 77 44 61 / 0 10 80 70 Placitas........................ 48 71 44 54 / 0 20 80 80 Rio Rancho...................... 48 75 46 60 / 0 20 70 70 Socorro......................... 50 80 48 64 / 0 5 70 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 67 39 49 / 0 30 90 80 Tijeras......................... 44 69 40 51 / 0 20 90 80 Edgewood........................ 40 68 36 50 / 0 30 90 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 68 31 50 / 0 30 90 80 Clines Corners.................. 38 61 33 42 / 0 40 100 90 Mountainair..................... 40 70 36 50 / 0 20 90 80 Gran Quivira.................... 43 69 37 49 / 0 20 90 80 Carrizozo....................... 50 72 45 53 / 0 20 100 80 Ruidoso......................... 48 65 39 46 / 0 20 100 90 Capulin......................... 33 46 28 39 / 50 90 100 100 Raton........................... 34 52 30 43 / 50 90 100 100 Springer........................ 37 55 33 45 / 40 90 100 100 Las Vegas....................... 38 56 32 42 / 20 70 100 100 Clayton......................... 39 51 36 47 / 50 50 100 90 Roy............................. 38 52 34 43 / 40 70 100 100 Conchas......................... 44 62 37 49 / 20 40 100 100 Santa Rosa...................... 43 61 36 45 / 5 40 100 100 Tucumcari....................... 45 62 39 49 / 20 50 100 100 Clovis.......................... 45 63 41 48 / 10 30 100 100 Portales........................ 45 64 41 49 / 5 30 90 100 Fort Sumner..................... 45 66 39 49 / 0 30 100 100 Roswell......................... 53 75 47 53 / 0 20 90 100 Picacho......................... 49 71 41 49 / 0 20 90 90 Elk............................. 47 72 39 50 / 0 20 90 90

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ213>215-227.