textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026 - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread will occur Saturday through Monday with the most widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions expected on Sunday.

- Localized erratic wind gust to 55 mph or greater from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall in eastern New Mexico today.

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

A dry intrusion punching into central and western NM today will continue kicking off high-based showers and storms over eastern NM thru early this evening. High DCAPE with large inverted-V profiles and strong winds aloft will support downburst gusts >60 mph over far eastern NM thru around 6pm. The 12Z HREF ensemble max gusts show several outflows >60 mph closer to the TX/NM border. SPC shows a 'Marginal Risk' area for this same area. Meanwhile, central and western NM will remain very dry and warm with breezy westerly winds thru sunset.

The backdoor cold front slated to enter eastern NM Friday has trended weaker with a less robust westward push. CAMs are still suggesting enough moisture and instability along the boundary to support an area of showers and storms over eastern Colfax and Union counties Friday afternoon. The overall setup is similar to today with another round of downburst wind gusts for northeast NM. The rest of the region will see hot temps, sunny skies, low humidity, and breezy west winds. Flow aloft will become more southwesterly late Friday night as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Surface winds will decrease in most areas outside the higher terrain with slightly cooler temps and more noticeable min temp inversions.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

A multi-day period of hot, dry, and windy weather will take shape Saturday thru Monday as a deep upper level trough or closed low moves slowly east thru the Great Basin and the southern Rockies. There is still some uncertainty with regard to how far south the trough will track and how deep or closed the low becomes thru this period. The latest trends continue deepening an H5 low between 547dm and 555dm over NV by Sunday. Stronger south-southwest winds aloft ahead of this low Saturday with surface low pressure deepening to between 988mb and 994mb over southeast CO will favor increasing surface winds. Winds aloft are not that impressive by Saturday but the surface pressure gradient is quite strong. Pattern recognition suggests southerly winds will trend stronger than shown for the Rio Grande Valley and the high plains of eastern NM by late Saturday afternoon. 700-500mb layer winds increase to between 30 and 45kt Saturday night and Sunday while surface low pressure decreases below 990mb over northeast NM. The latest NBM 75th percentile wind gusts are already 40 to 55 mph Sunday over a large area of NM. This wind max shifts east into eastern NM Monday while H5 heights fall over northern and western NM with cooler max temps. Folks are always encouraged to practice fire safety but especially with this prolonged period of dangerous fire weather.

Forecast confidence decreases beginning Tuesday given uncertainty with the upper level pattern and key surface features. A moist backdoor cold front is still shown entering eastern NM Tuesday then again Thursday but the depth of this moisture and the extent of instability is uncertain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Gusty showers have dissipated however a few remnant boundaries could generate intermittent gusts in eastern NM through the night. LLWS will impact sites along the Rio Grande Valley and the Pecos River Valley for the next few hours (through around 09Z). High based showers with gusty and erratic outflow winds will focus over the NE corner of the state Friday afternoon, although there is a low chance of a few showers in east-central and southeast areas as well. A light SW to W breeze will prevail at most Friday afternoon, with the strongest winds in the SE corner of the state.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Isolated high-based showers and dry storms over eastern NM today will move east around 25 mph into west TX this evening. Downburst wind gusts >55 mph are possible with several lightning strikes. Critical fire weather along the I-25 corridor of northeast NM today will give way to lighter winds later tonight with poor humidity recoveries. A Red Flag Warning has been posted for Zone 123 today.

A backdoor cold front entering far northeast NM Friday has trended weaker with high-based and gusty storms focused mainly over Colfax and Union counties. The rest of the region will remain hot and dry with lighter winds compared to the past few days. Poor recoveries will occur again in most areas Friday night with increasing ridge top winds across the northern and western high terrain.

The likelihood is increasing for a multi-day fire growing pattern to develop Saturday thru Monday as a deep upper level trough passes north of NM. Critical fire weather will begin as early as Saturday then peak Sunday with widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather. Temps will be above normal Saturday and Sunday with 6 to 12+ hours of single digit humidity, poor overnight recoveries, mixing heights >15,000ft, ERC values above the 75th and 90th percentiles, and strong south to southwest winds. RFTIs will average 3 to 6 Saturday with peak wind gusts between 30 and 45 mph followed by RFTIs between 5 and 8 Sunday with peak wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. The dry and windy pattern will linger over at least eastern NM Monday. Cooler temps and lower mixing heights with lighter winds and slightly higher humidity may limit coverage over northern and western NM by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 46 85 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 35 82 38 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 42 81 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 46 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 48 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 45 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 53 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 49 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 43 84 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 46 87 45 87 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 36 77 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 53 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 47 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 78 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 39 68 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 38 74 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 38 82 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 47 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 47 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 50 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 90 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 54 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 52 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 54 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 59 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 53 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 52 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 84 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 46 78 44 82 / 0 20 5 5 Raton........................... 45 84 44 86 / 0 20 0 0 Springer........................ 45 86 45 88 / 0 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 57 87 53 91 / 0 20 10 5 Roy............................. 51 85 49 88 / 0 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 53 93 52 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 88 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 56 96 56 99 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 58 95 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 95 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 57 93 54 96 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 65 95 58 98 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 60 88 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 58 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ104-106-123-125-126.