textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Added some mentionable PoPs across eastern NM where the outflow boundary has sparked a few showers and thunderstorms. Updates out shortly.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Convection across northeast NM has sent an outflow boundary southward across northeast NM early this morning. This boundary will continue to press southward and nudge up to the Central Mountain Chain through the morning. Winds behind the boundary will veer to the east and southeast later this morning, allowing for moist upslope flow onto the Central Mountain Chain this afternoon. Models are very much in agreement that storms will develop across all of the high terrain this afternoon, but in particular that widespread heavy rainfall will impact much of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. CAMs also depict that these storms will shift eastward across far northeast NM and will continue to produce heavy rainfall. NBM90th percentile QPF amounts are over 2.5 inches across far NE NM and REFS LPMM amounts are not far behind. Thus, the Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover the northern Sangres, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas and Union County. The remainder of the Flash Flood Watch has not been altered. CAMs are also very much in agreement that areas around Gallup, Zuni Pueblo and surrounding areas will likely see another round of heavy rainfall today, and perhaps multiple rounds of rainfall. Over an inch of rainfall is not out of the question in these already hard hit areas. While storms shift east and southeast off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and other portions of the Central Mountain Chain, storms across western NM will shift toward the north or northwest as the upper high center will be almost squarely over Santa Fe by early aftn. In addition to the heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic winds and small hail will remain possible with storm today.

Temperatures will also remain hot today. Heat Advisories are in effect for many lower elevation areas and no changes to the NPW are expected. Temps between 100-104 are expected with the Rio Grande Valley and around Farmington and Shiprock, while temps up to 107 are expected again across east central NM. Several temperature records are in jeopardy again, including Clovis, Fort Sumner, Moriarty, Portales, Roswell, Santa Fe and Tucumcari.

The upper high will continue to meander over NM on Wednesday, but will not change in strength much from today -- still around 596dam at H5. Models suggest storms will develop over high terrain areas once again, though generally show coverage to be less than today. The exception to that rule is across far northeast NM. A weak disturbance rounding the top of the ridge in CO should set off showers and thunderstorms over both the NM and CO Sangre de Cristo Mtns which will shift eastward near the NM/CO border. These storms could once again produce heavy rainfall in excess of 1-1.5". While NE NM seems to be favored for heavy rainfall on Wednesday, cannot rule out a few storms producing very heavy rainfall elsewhere as PWATs will continue to hover at or just above 1 inch and storm motions will remain slow.

Temperatures on Wednesday may stay just below Heat Advisory criteria but it will still be hot. Temperatures between 100 and 104 remain likely for much of east central NM while temperatures between 98 and 101 are favored across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The upper high will strengthen on Thursday to 598 dam as it begins to shift westward, though for much of the day will remain over central NM. Though storm coverage should be similar to or slightly less than Wednesday, storms will still be able to produce heavy rainfall as PWATs remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the vort max produced by last nights convection over Mexico looks to merge with a weak shortwave shifting over northern CA later today and move over the top of the ridge Thursday morning and across eastern CO Thursday afternoon. The convection that ensues over CO, NE and KS will send another outflow boundary into NE NM late Thursday night into Friday. This should set the stage for additional shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern NM on Friday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile on Friday, the upper high will have shifted west- northwest to the AZ/UT border and strengthened to at least 600dam at H5. Temperatures should rise another degree or two with triple digit heat returning around FMN. Saturday looks to remain active with regards to precip, at least along the Central Mountain Chain and Southwest Mountains, but drier air may start to move into NW NM around the upper high. The drier air may continue to push more into NM early next week reducing storm coverage Sunday and Monday. PWATs may finally dip below 1 inch.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

An outflow boundary has pushed southward across eastern NM and a few showers and thundestorms have developed this morning along it stretching from just south of KCQC to KTCC. Additionally, a few storms persist across west central NM. All of these storms are not expected to last much past sunrise. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with storms focusing across the high terrain initially. Storms should roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountain to the southeast while storms across western NM should shift slowly to the north or northwest. Storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, IFR or lower vsbys, and gusty winds in excess of 40kt. Showers and thunderstorms should continue past 06Z Wed before slowly diminishing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week, however, temperatures will be hot areawide. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are on tap. With the upper high overhead today, storms will shift east and southeast off the Central Mtn Chain, but will shift north and northwest across western NM. Slow storm motions will persist through Thursday. Typical monsoon hazards including locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty and erratic winds can be expected daily. New fires may start due to lightning in pockets of dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 100 69 98 67 / 5 20 10 20 Dulce........................... 97 57 94 55 / 20 40 30 30 Cuba............................ 95 62 91 61 / 20 50 20 40 Gallup.......................... 92 60 92 60 / 40 40 30 20 El Morro........................ 88 59 88 59 / 60 50 50 20 Grants.......................... 93 62 92 61 / 30 50 40 30 Quemado......................... 89 60 89 60 / 60 40 50 20 Magdalena....................... 92 67 91 66 / 30 30 40 30 Datil........................... 88 61 88 61 / 50 40 40 30 Reserve......................... 95 60 94 61 / 60 20 40 20 Glenwood........................ 100 63 98 65 / 60 30 30 20 Chama........................... 89 55 86 54 / 30 50 40 40 Los Alamos...................... 92 66 89 65 / 50 50 50 60 Pecos........................... 92 60 89 60 / 60 50 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 89 58 86 58 / 50 40 50 50 Red River....................... 80 51 77 50 / 60 50 60 50 Angel Fire...................... 84 49 82 48 / 60 30 60 40 Taos............................ 92 60 90 59 / 50 30 30 40 Mora............................ 89 58 86 57 / 70 50 60 50 Espanola........................ 100 67 95 65 / 40 40 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 93 65 90 64 / 50 40 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 97 64 93 63 / 30 40 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 99 70 96 70 / 30 50 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 70 98 70 / 20 50 10 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 103 70 100 69 / 20 50 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 71 98 71 / 20 40 10 30 Belen........................... 103 70 100 69 / 20 50 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 102 70 99 69 / 20 40 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 102 68 99 67 / 20 60 10 20 Corrales........................ 102 70 99 70 / 20 40 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 102 69 99 68 / 20 50 10 20 Placitas........................ 97 69 95 68 / 30 40 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 101 70 98 70 / 20 40 20 30 Socorro......................... 104 74 101 73 / 20 40 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 64 90 64 / 40 50 40 40 Tijeras......................... 95 64 92 64 / 40 60 30 40 Edgewood........................ 97 62 93 61 / 50 60 40 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 59 94 58 / 50 60 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 92 61 90 61 / 40 50 20 30 Mountainair..................... 96 62 93 62 / 40 50 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 95 63 93 63 / 30 40 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 98 69 96 68 / 20 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 91 65 88 63 / 20 10 10 5 Capulin......................... 89 58 88 59 / 70 70 70 30 Raton........................... 94 58 91 58 / 80 40 50 30 Springer........................ 96 60 94 59 / 70 40 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 92 60 89 59 / 50 50 40 40 Clayton......................... 98 66 96 67 / 20 50 30 30 Roy............................. 95 63 92 64 / 40 50 20 30 Conchas......................... 103 68 101 68 / 20 40 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 99 67 98 66 / 20 40 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 105 70 102 71 / 20 30 10 20 Clovis.......................... 104 70 101 69 / 10 10 5 5 Portales........................ 104 71 101 71 / 10 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 105 71 101 70 / 20 10 0 10 Roswell......................... 107 74 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 101 69 97 67 / 5 5 0 0 Elk............................. 99 66 93 64 / 5 5 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 1 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for NMZ204>209-211>215-218-221-227>230-241.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-217-219-220-234>238.