textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 138 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Seasonable temperatures return with chances for showers and storms today and Tuesday. Storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of gusty and erratic winds.

- After a quiet and warmer Wednesday, more unsettled weather will round out the week with chances for showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 138 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A shortwave trough remains poised to cross NM late today through Tuesday. Modest moisture from the Gulf will slowly inch northward through the day as winds increase from the south, but more robust moisture will arrive with the system. Ascent ahead of the shortwave will allow showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across western NM this afternoon, spreading to the Central Mountain Chain overnight, then finally across eastern NM Tuesday. The strongest ascent appears to be near and south of I-40 through the overnight hours, so expect the greatest precipitation amounts there through sunrise. However, orographic lift will be a player on Tuesday which is when the northern mountains and other portions of the Central Mtn Chain will get another chance at better precipitation totals. There is even a low chance of light snow (<2") across the highest peaks of the northern mountains. The main change this morning is that PWATs have trended upward just a bit, and there are hints from several models that the shortwave may weakly close into a low. This combination will yield better precipitation amounts than what was previously forecast - so yes, forecast precipitation totals have trended upward! Overall, amounts are still light, but a quarter inch of rainfall, or perhaps slightly more, is more probable. Thunderstorm chances appear greatest late this afternoon and early evening across western NM, then after a break overnight, returning Tuesday across central and western NM. Should a lightning strike find dry fuels, new fire starts remain possible. Gusty and erratic winds may accompany any shower or thunderstorm, mainly today, as inverted-V profiles diminish with top-down moistening by Tuesday. Outside of the precipitation chances, strong southerly winds will return across eastern NM today. Gusts between 25 and 40 mph will be common, with the strongest gusts across northeast NM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

As the shortwave moves into Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday night, precipitation will diminish across NM. Drier air moves in behind the shortwave and Wednesday will feature much more sunshine and warmer temperatures. After seasonable (or even below seasonable) temps Mon and Tue, all areas will be above normal on Wednesday by 5 to 12 degrees. Occasional westerly breezes will be felt in the afternoon, but should be one of the quieter days this week.

Not a lot more action is expected on Thursday, however, Gulf moisture will begin to creep back into eastern NM as an Pacific low gains strength and organization west of CA. Though this feature will be too far away for forcing associated with this feature to have any effect in NM, can't rule out a few airmass thunderstorms near the TX border late in the aftn. Otherwise, a few westerly breezes across central and western NM will be on tap once again, and temps will climb another few degrees.

Low level Gulf moisture makes a stronger push westward Thursday night and Friday and will likely nudge up to the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain. Southwesterly flow will increase over NM ahead of the approaching upper low Friday, and showers and thunderstorms may develop over the dryline/pseudo dryline along and east of the Central Mtn Chain Friday aftn. Though initially looking like a setup for strong to severe storms, closer inspection shows a few concerns. Main concern will be how much instability is present as abundant cloud cover is expected and dewpoints are currently forecast to be in the 40s, neither ideal for severe weather. However, moisture advection will continue well into Friday evening and overnight and showers may become more widespread with beneficial rainfall across eastern NM. Additional storms will be possible Saturday as the low moves over SoCal and ascent increases over NM. The low will slide over AZ Sunday, likely weakening/filling as it does so. Nonetheless, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across western and central NM as the system approaches. All-in-all, Friday through the weekend is shaping up to be an unsettled period with *cross your fingers* beneficial rain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 21Z Monday with deteriorating conditions expected thereafter. A shortwave trough will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to western NM Monday afternoon which will expand in coverage and shift toward central NM by 06Z Tuesday. MVFR cigs and brief MVFR vsbys are expected as the precipitation moves through. Any shower or storm will also have the potential for gusty and erratic winds Monday aftn and eve. Additionally, strong south to southwest winds will develop Monday afternoon across eastern NM. Gusts up to 35kt are expected, with the strongest gusts across northeast NM. These winds will slowly decrease Monday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across northeast NM. Strong southerly winds with gusts near 35 or 40 mph and RH values near or just below 15 percent are expected. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the Northeast Highlands and Northeast Plains. Meanwhile, a shortwave will bring showers and thunderstorms to western NM this afternoon and evening. These showers and thunderstorms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds. As the shortwave crosses the state through Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward. Between one tenth and one quarter of an inch of rain is likely for most areas, though northeast and east central NM will likely receive less. Quieter and warmer conditions expected Wed. Gulf moisture begins to return Wed night into Thursday across eastern NM, with a bigger return expected Thursday night into Friday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday through the weekend with beneficial rainfall possible as another storm system impacts NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 70 44 69 39 / 10 30 20 0 Dulce........................... 67 30 63 26 / 20 30 60 5 Cuba............................ 62 36 61 35 / 10 40 50 20 Gallup.......................... 66 33 65 29 / 30 70 30 0 El Morro........................ 63 39 61 36 / 40 80 40 0 Grants.......................... 66 36 65 32 / 30 70 50 0 Quemado......................... 64 40 63 36 / 60 80 30 0 Magdalena....................... 63 43 62 42 / 20 80 50 5 Datil........................... 61 40 61 38 / 40 80 40 0 Reserve......................... 65 36 68 32 / 60 80 20 0 Glenwood........................ 69 39 74 37 / 40 70 20 0 Chama........................... 60 31 56 29 / 20 20 70 30 Los Alamos...................... 62 43 59 41 / 10 30 70 40 Pecos........................... 63 36 58 35 / 10 30 70 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 36 58 34 / 20 20 80 50 Red River....................... 53 31 49 29 / 20 20 80 60 Angel Fire...................... 59 24 54 23 / 10 20 80 60 Taos............................ 65 32 61 28 / 10 20 70 50 Mora............................ 63 34 57 34 / 10 20 70 60 Espanola........................ 69 40 65 36 / 10 30 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 63 41 59 40 / 10 30 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 66 41 63 37 / 10 30 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 47 65 47 / 10 60 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 46 67 44 / 10 60 50 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 46 69 42 / 10 60 50 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 48 68 44 / 10 60 40 20 Belen........................... 71 44 70 40 / 10 70 60 20 Bernalillo...................... 70 47 68 43 / 10 50 50 20 Bosque Farms.................... 71 43 69 38 / 10 70 60 20 Corrales........................ 70 47 68 42 / 10 60 50 20 Los Lunas....................... 70 44 69 40 / 10 70 60 20 Placitas........................ 67 47 64 45 / 10 50 50 20 Rio Rancho...................... 69 47 67 44 / 10 60 50 20 Socorro......................... 70 47 70 45 / 10 80 60 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 43 60 42 / 10 60 60 30 Tijeras......................... 65 44 62 42 / 10 60 60 30 Edgewood........................ 65 41 62 37 / 10 60 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 36 64 31 / 10 50 60 30 Clines Corners.................. 62 39 59 37 / 10 50 60 50 Mountainair..................... 64 40 62 39 / 10 70 70 30 Gran Quivira.................... 63 41 61 40 / 10 70 80 30 Carrizozo....................... 64 44 64 44 / 10 80 80 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 40 58 41 / 10 80 80 20 Capulin......................... 65 33 59 33 / 0 5 70 50 Raton........................... 70 31 64 31 / 5 10 70 50 Springer........................ 70 34 64 32 / 5 10 60 50 Las Vegas....................... 64 36 58 35 / 5 20 60 60 Clayton......................... 70 41 65 40 / 0 5 50 40 Roy............................. 65 39 59 36 / 0 10 50 50 Conchas......................... 72 44 66 39 / 0 10 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 68 43 63 37 / 0 20 60 50 Tucumcari....................... 73 44 66 41 / 0 10 50 40 Clovis.......................... 70 44 62 41 / 0 20 70 30 Portales........................ 73 43 64 38 / 0 20 70 30 Fort Sumner..................... 70 42 63 37 / 0 30 60 40 Roswell......................... 71 46 67 44 / 5 50 80 20 Picacho......................... 66 42 63 40 / 10 70 80 20 Elk............................. 63 37 63 38 / 10 70 80 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.