textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 536 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Arroyos, rivers and streams will continue to run high today after recent rainfall. Stay away from river banks.

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times each morning through Sunday. Highest confidence exists across eastern New Mexico Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 136 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A ridge has begun to amplify over the desert southwest, but a weak Low remains in place over southern NM this morning. This has allowed easterly upslope flow to persist along and east of the central mountain chain where low clouds are likely to persist through the afternoon. This will keep temperatures down in these areas, with highs as much as 20 degrees below seasonal averages. It will be closer to average in central and western areas, but still a few ticks below normal in most locales. The upslope flow has allowed a few showers to develop in the Sacramento Mountains and these light showers could expand eastward towards Roswell and Clovis later this afternoon, with very little to no accumulation expected.

Very light winds will continue in most areas overnight, allowing some patchy fog to develop. The favored area will be the east slopes of the central mountain chain and upper Rio Grande Valley, but the REFS is showing the potential for fog in western mountain valleys and across the eastern plains as well. A drainage wind will attempt to develop along the RGV early Saturday morning. All guidance keeps winds below 10 kts in north Albuquerque, but it will be something to watch for ballooning interests.

Low clouds across southeast New Mexico are forecast to finally erode Saturday afternoon as drier air filters in from the northeast. Temperatures will trend a few degrees higher in most areas, with the largest change (up to 15 degrees) across the eastern plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 136 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Dry weather is forecast to continue through early next week as ridging amplifies over the Intermountain West, keeping dry east/northeast flow over New Mexico. A subtle east/west oriented jet max is forecast to increase easterly wind speeds across central NM Sunday, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely along a line extending from Albuquerque to Gallup. The ridge is forecast to migrate westward towards California on Tuesday as a weak shortwave treks southeast across The Great Basin and southern Rockies. Models continue to trend even weaker with this feature so PoPs continue to trend lower. At most, the northern mountains may have a few light hours with most areas remaining dry.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer mid to late week as ridging only further amplifies over the Four Corners region. This will keep dry and seasonably warm weather around through the end of the week. Long-term guidance is all over the place, although there are indications that the ridge will break down, potentially favoring a more active pattern mid-month.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Low clouds and patchy areas of drizzle continue over portions of east central to south central New Mexico early this evening. These low clouds will persist tonight into Saturday morning with scattered to MVFR ceilings (less than 3,000 ft) and localized, or isolated IFR ceilings (less than 1,000 ft). While much of the northwestern half of New Mexico is currently VFR and mostly clear, patchy ground fog will develop late tonight into the early morning Saturday. Most western and central areas would be expected to stay in the MVFR category (3 to 5 mile visibility) or better early Saturday, but spotty areas of IFR conditions (1 to 3 mile visibility) cannot be ruled out (10-30% chance), especially where standing water and soggy soils are concentrated. Into the afternoon Saturday, a clearing trend will commence with VFR conditions, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds, and light breezes prevailing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Gusty north to northeast winds across eastern NM will continue to trend weaker through the afternoon, becoming very light overnight. Patchy fog is likely tonight, with mountain valleys and the east slopes of the central mountain chain the favored areas. Patchy fog may return again Sunday morning to the same areas.

Outside of a strong easterly breeze across central and western NM on Sunday, light winds will generally prevail next week as a ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will gradually warm through next week, reaching above seasonal averages by the middle of the week.

There is still a very low chance of a few showers in the northern mountains Tuesday/Wednesday, but rain chances continue to trend lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 76 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 40 78 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 74 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 40 75 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 42 74 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 41 74 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 67 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 44 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 48 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 42 74 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 74 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 24 70 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 38 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 40 73 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 45 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 74 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 74 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 48 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 48 74 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 73 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 70 48 70 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 72 51 72 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 72 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 73 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 69 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 69 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 69 45 69 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 48 68 50 72 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 44 64 45 64 / 30 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 73 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 43 77 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 42 77 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 72 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 75 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 72 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 51 75 52 77 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 50 72 49 74 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 75 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 52 72 52 76 / 30 5 0 0 Portales........................ 53 73 51 77 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 73 52 78 / 20 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 73 52 78 / 30 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 51 69 48 72 / 60 5 0 0 Elk............................. 48 68 46 69 / 60 5 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.