textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Storms will increasingly favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain Friday through the weekend.

- Near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat- related illnesses across central and western NM today and across eastern NM for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The upper high will shift a bit to the northeast today and should be centered just southwest of Grants, NM. At the surface, a weak lee side trough will take shape over eastern CO and NM. Storms will develop over the high terrain by early afternoon. Storm motions will be slower than yesterday, likely slow and erratic across the west and toward the south around 5-10 mph across the east. Storms will struggle to move off the high terrain, but should do so late this afternoon with the aid of outflow boundaries. Severe weather is not anticipated across northeast NM today owning to weaker shear and less instability, but a brief strong storm is not out of the question. Additionally, all storms today will be capable of gusty and erratic winds. PWATs do climb a bit today across western NM, and pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across the southwest mountains. Additionally, most CAMs show storms around the Ruidoso area this afternoon, though confidence is not high enough to issue a Flood Watch due to uncertainty in rainfall amounts and whether the burn scars will take a direct hit. Regardless, this area will be monitored closely today. All-in-all, will be looking for more storm coverage across western NM today and less across the east compared to yesterday.

The upper high expands and shifts eastward on Saturday. The center will be approximately over the Texas Panhandle, but will be elongated from near El Paso to eastern OK. An approaching trough over CA combined with the high shifting eastward will allow a traditional monsoon moisture plume to develop over AZ and western NM Saturday afternoon. PWATs climb to near or just over an inch across western NM. Storm coverage will increase across the west, while continuing to dwindle across the east. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to areas of nuisance or flash flooding. Outflows from the convection across the west may push into the Rio Grande Valley late in the afternoon or evening. Gusty winds may kick up dust, or hopefully, spark additional storms, including around ABQ.

Temperatures will trend back upward over eastern NM Saturday, with a few locations reaching the triple digits.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The high continues to shift eastward on Sunday and will remain east of NM on Monday. Scattered to numerous storms are once again expected across western NM each afternoon. PWATs will remain at or above one inch, so a chance for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist. However, storm motions of 10-20 mph toward the northeast should help mitigate the flooding threat, unless repeated rounds of precipitation fall over the same area. Much like Saturday, outflows could push into the Rio Grande Valley in the late afternoon or evening, bringing gusty winds and/or a few storms. Meanwhile, the east will remain hot, with more and more locations likely topping the century mark in the afternoon, especially on Sunday.

Both ensemble means and AI models suggest a new upper high will develop near El Paso Tuesday afternoon. This will disrupt the monsoon plume, though enough moisture will remain in place to recycle in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain. But overall, storms shouldn't be as robust, especially across western NM, as they were Sat-Mon. The high may shift northward, more squarely over NM on Wednesday, but uncertainty remains on where it will meander to thereafter. For now, a downtick in thunderstorm coverage is forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A moderate chance exists for patchy fog to impact the Moreno Valley, including KAXX, through 14Z. Otherwise, a quiet morning is in store. Storms will redevelop near or shortly after 18Z today across the high terrain. Storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds, as well as brief heavy rainfall. Movement will be slow and erratic across western NM, but should generally move toward the south elsewhere. Brief MVFR vsbys may occur in heavy rain. More storms are expected across western NM than what occurred on Thursday, but fewer storms are expected across the east. Most storms should diminish by 06Z Sat. Confidence is generally low that any TAF site will be impacted by storms, but KGUP has the greatest chance of any.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. Showers and thunderstorms will become more focused across western NM through Monday and increasing moisture will allow for wetting rainfall. Localized flash flooding will also be possible. Eastern NM will be hot, with temperatures around 10 to 12 degrees above normal. The Rio Grande Valley will likely be in the transition zone between the storms across the west and the hot and drier conditions across the east. Outflow boundaries will likely move into the Rio Grande Valley each afternoon or evening from the west, bringing gusty winds, some dust and a low chance for a few storms. Abundant lightning may continue to start new fires in pockets of dry fuels. Starting Tuesday, the monsoon plume of moisture across western NM will be disrupted and thunderstorm coverage will trend downward through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 66 91 62 / 5 10 20 40 Dulce........................... 91 51 88 50 / 10 10 20 50 Cuba............................ 89 60 87 57 / 10 20 30 60 Gallup.......................... 92 58 89 54 / 10 20 40 60 El Morro........................ 88 57 85 54 / 20 20 60 60 Grants.......................... 91 59 88 56 / 20 20 50 50 Quemado......................... 88 59 86 57 / 30 30 50 50 Magdalena....................... 88 64 87 63 / 30 20 40 30 Datil........................... 86 58 84 57 / 40 30 60 30 Reserve......................... 93 57 91 58 / 40 30 30 20 Glenwood........................ 97 62 95 63 / 40 30 20 20 Chama........................... 84 54 82 51 / 20 10 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 87 63 86 61 / 30 20 40 40 Pecos........................... 87 59 88 59 / 20 20 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 57 85 56 / 20 20 30 30 Red River....................... 75 49 76 48 / 20 20 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 80 43 81 43 / 30 20 30 20 Taos............................ 89 56 89 55 / 20 20 20 20 Mora............................ 84 55 85 55 / 30 20 40 30 Espanola........................ 94 63 93 61 / 10 20 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 88 63 88 63 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 61 91 61 / 10 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 70 94 68 / 10 20 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 68 94 66 / 10 20 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 67 96 65 / 5 20 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 70 95 68 / 10 20 20 40 Belen........................... 97 66 96 64 / 5 20 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 96 68 96 67 / 10 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 97 65 96 63 / 5 20 20 30 Corrales........................ 97 69 96 67 / 10 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 97 67 96 65 / 5 20 20 30 Placitas........................ 93 68 93 66 / 10 20 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 96 69 95 67 / 10 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 98 70 97 69 / 10 20 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 63 88 61 / 10 20 20 30 Tijeras......................... 90 64 90 63 / 10 20 20 30 Edgewood........................ 91 60 91 59 / 10 30 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 57 92 56 / 10 30 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 87 61 88 60 / 20 30 10 10 Mountainair..................... 89 60 90 59 / 20 30 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 89 60 90 59 / 20 30 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 90 64 91 65 / 20 20 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 82 58 83 59 / 50 20 30 5 Capulin......................... 86 58 89 58 / 20 30 20 20 Raton........................... 90 54 92 55 / 20 20 20 20 Springer........................ 92 56 94 56 / 20 20 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 86 56 89 57 / 20 20 10 20 Clayton......................... 91 68 97 69 / 5 20 10 10 Roy............................. 89 62 93 62 / 10 30 10 10 Conchas......................... 97 68 101 70 / 5 20 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 93 66 98 67 / 10 20 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 97 69 101 71 / 5 10 0 5 Clovis.......................... 94 68 98 69 / 10 5 0 0 Portales........................ 94 68 99 69 / 10 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 96 69 100 70 / 10 10 0 5 Roswell......................... 98 71 101 71 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 63 95 64 / 20 5 10 5 Elk............................. 88 59 90 60 / 40 10 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.