textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026 - Severe thunderstorms with large hail will continue to impact portions of central and eastern NM through the evening.

- River flooding will continue over parts of northwest New Mexico through tonight. Additional flash flooding may also develop across parts of northwest and west central New Mexico through this evening.

- Heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely across central and eastern NM this weekend with a risk of flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Active weather will persist across the region today as a large upper-level trough shifts northeast into the northern Rockies and a secondary closed low begins developing over the Southwest. Deep southwesterly flow will continue to transport very moist air into New Mexico, supporting another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage is expected to be greatest from the Continental Divide eastward, with the highest rainfall and flash flood concerns across northwest and west central portions of the CWA. Rainfall amounts between 0.10-0.50 are most likely, although locally higher amounts are possible with stronger or repeated storms. Given yesterday's heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches (isolated higher totals up to 3-4 inches!) across portions of north-central and northwestern New Mexico, including Mount Taylor and the Jemez and San Juan Mountain regions, any additional rainfall could quickly generate runoff and flash flooding. WPC has introduced a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall across these harder hit areas, which is surrounded by a broader Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending across much of the central and eastern portions of the state this afternoon and through the overnight hours. The Flood Watch issued last forecast cycle will remain in effect for the aforementioned areas through midnight tonight, with an additional watch now in effect for the Ruidoso area through 6 AM Sunday. The overall risk is greatest for Ruidoso Saturday into Sunday (more on this below) and storm motions are progged to be on the faster side at 30-40 mph the rest of today. However, with modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) and anomalous moisture in place, high rainfall rates and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. The watch begins at 6PM this evening.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible this evening as the instability mentioned above and favorable deep-layer shear are supportive of organized convection. RAP mesoanalysis also depicts straight-line hodographs indicative of large hail and splitting storms. Occasional severe outflow gusts can also be expected, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly across south-central portions of the state. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 is now in effect until 9PM tonight for much of New Mexico.

The threat for additional heavy rainfall and severe storms will continue on Saturday as the upper low advances northeast across the Southwest. Increasing moisture transport and forcing ahead of the system will allow for more widespread convection, with the greatest coverage across central and eastern New Mexico. Repeated or training storms could produce rainfall rates exceeding 1-inch/hour, leading to renewed flash flooding threats, especially across areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday and that will again see some today. Risk is also higher for urban areas, arroyos, steep terrain, and recent burn scar areas. WPC once again highlights a Slight risk of excessive rainfall extending across eastern New Mexico. Additional severe storms are possible Saturday central and southern zones, with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two among the potential hazards. Temperatures will also trend cooler on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper low will continue lifting northeastward on Sunday, maintaining (I'm going to sound like a broken record here) a threat for showers and thunderstorms across much of eastern New Mexico. By this time, drier air will begin infiltrating western portions of the CWA. Although storms will be a lot more progressive as the system shifts east (storm motions around 40-50 mph), continued high moisture content and modest instability will support instances of locally heavy rainfall, particularly across northeastern New Mexico where at least 1-3 inches are forecast. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also remain possible across southern and southeast New Mexico, with cool midlevel temperatures and elongated hodographs suggesting that large hail will once again be the primary concern. Snow may accumulate on the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains through Sunday night. Cooler temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend.

By Monday, while the low will still be lifting northeast into the central Plains, lingering southeasterly flow may sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico. However, PWATs are set to decrease to around 0.60-0.90 inches, reducing the potential for additional widespread rains and flash flooding concerns. Drier condtions look take over by Tuesday and southwest flow sets in. As cloud cover and precipitation decreases, temperatures will begin to moderate.

Shower and thunderstorm chances could increase again Wednesday and Thursday as another disturbance from the Pacific approaches the west coast. However, long-term guidance continues to differ in solutions regarding the ultimate track and timing of this system. Confidence is currently low, and the forecast will continue to be refine in future packages.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will persist across central and eastern NM this evening before diminishing in coverage after 06Z. Isolated severe storms will be capable of large hail in excess of one inch in diameter. Damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the stronger storms will be capable of heavy rain, reducing visibility below 5 miles at times. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours. Storms will become more numerous Saturday morning, especially across central and eastern NM. Storms will continue to increase in intensity through the afternoon, with large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall will again be possible. In addition to the storms, low cigs should develop across much of eastern NM early Saturday morning, to include KROW. MVFR to locally IFR conditions are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next week. High humidity and chances for rainfall will persist through weekend. A brief period of warming/drying will follow early next week but then a return to wetter conditions is forecast by mid to late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 45 64 43 61 / 20 80 50 20 Dulce........................... 43 61 41 57 / 70 80 90 70 Cuba............................ 45 60 42 58 / 70 80 80 20 Gallup.......................... 41 63 36 52 / 20 30 10 5 El Morro........................ 41 61 36 59 / 20 40 10 0 Grants.......................... 41 63 33 60 / 40 70 20 5 Quemado......................... 44 64 36 62 / 10 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 48 63 42 62 / 70 60 40 10 Datil........................... 44 59 38 60 / 30 50 20 0 Reserve......................... 45 65 37 65 / 30 30 5 0 Glenwood........................ 49 70 42 70 / 30 40 5 0 Chama........................... 42 55 39 51 / 90 90 100 70 Los Alamos...................... 47 56 43 57 / 90 100 100 50 Pecos........................... 45 59 42 60 / 100 100 100 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 58 42 55 / 90 100 90 40 Red River....................... 39 49 36 47 / 80 100 100 50 Angel Fire...................... 41 52 38 51 / 90 100 100 50 Taos............................ 43 58 39 58 / 90 100 90 40 Mora............................ 44 55 41 57 / 100 100 100 50 Espanola........................ 50 64 46 65 / 90 100 90 50 Santa Fe........................ 47 59 45 61 / 90 100 90 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 61 45 63 / 90 100 90 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 63 47 66 / 80 90 80 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 65 49 67 / 80 90 80 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 66 48 68 / 80 90 80 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 65 47 67 / 80 90 80 20 Belen........................... 52 72 49 70 / 70 80 70 10 Bernalillo...................... 52 67 48 67 / 90 90 90 20 Bosque Farms.................... 50 69 46 68 / 80 90 70 10 Corrales........................ 51 67 47 67 / 80 90 80 20 Los Lunas....................... 50 71 46 69 / 80 80 70 10 Placitas........................ 51 63 47 64 / 90 90 90 30 Rio Rancho...................... 53 68 49 66 / 80 90 80 20 Socorro......................... 53 71 47 70 / 80 80 60 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 62 46 60 / 90 90 80 20 Tijeras......................... 50 63 47 62 / 90 90 80 20 Edgewood........................ 48 61 46 60 / 90 100 80 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 62 41 62 / 90 100 80 20 Clines Corners.................. 45 59 41 58 / 90 90 90 40 Mountainair..................... 48 64 45 62 / 90 80 80 20 Gran Quivira.................... 48 63 45 61 / 90 80 80 20 Carrizozo....................... 52 68 50 65 / 90 80 80 30 Ruidoso......................... 47 64 45 63 / 80 80 90 50 Capulin......................... 48 56 39 55 / 80 100 100 80 Raton........................... 48 56 41 57 / 80 100 100 70 Springer........................ 49 60 43 62 / 80 100 100 60 Las Vegas....................... 44 55 40 55 / 100 90 100 70 Clayton......................... 53 64 48 59 / 70 90 90 100 Roy............................. 50 59 46 58 / 90 100 100 80 Conchas......................... 56 67 53 65 / 80 90 90 90 Santa Rosa...................... 54 64 52 63 / 80 100 90 80 Tucumcari....................... 56 67 52 64 / 70 80 90 90 Clovis.......................... 53 65 53 61 / 40 70 80 100 Portales........................ 56 72 56 68 / 40 60 80 100 Fort Sumner..................... 56 68 55 66 / 80 80 90 90 Roswell......................... 58 69 56 65 / 70 70 90 80 Picacho......................... 53 67 52 67 / 90 80 90 70 Elk............................. 50 66 49 65 / 80 90 90 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ203-204-206-207- 211.

Flood Watch through late Saturday night for NMZ226.