textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will pose a risk of rapid fire spread again through early this evening and again Tuesday east of the central mountain chain.

- Thursday through Friday, a strong Pacific storm system will bring soaking rain to many locations with ponding on roads being the main concern, and some cloud-to-ground lightning in the mix mainly over western areas Thursday and Friday. Winter travel conditions are likely in the northern mountains, especially Thursday night and Friday.

- Gusty east winds below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night and Friday will produce a 35-45 mph crosswind on north-to-south roads.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Breezy to locally windy and dry conditions prevail this afternoon, but wind speeds are well below yesterday's. A shortwave trough over NV will race east overnight and across the southern Rockies Tuesday morning, steering stronger westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere over northern NM. With daytime heating, these stronger westerly winds will mix to the surface on Tuesday, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions by the mid to late morning hours. Downslope warming on Tuesday afternoon will boost temperatures to 5-10 degrees above average across the eastern plains and Roswell is forecast to hit a high of 90 degrees. A weak backdoor cold front will slide southwest, down the eastern plains toward the central mountain chain Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Weak ridging aloft will be the story on Wednesday as a Pacific low wobbles slowly southeast offshore of SoCal. Daytime temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler on Wednesday across the eastern plains behind the backdoor cold front. Winds will trend down some on Wednesday, but breezy conditions are still anticipated across much of the area by afternoon. Moisture advection will ramp-up Wednesday night and continue into Thursday night in advance of the approaching Pacific low. The latest modeling shows the Pacific low moving east from over the Baja Peninsula Thursday night, then opening up and lifting northeast across northern MX and southern NM going into Friday. There are some timing and track differences in the modeling, but the further south track compared to yesterday's solutions does favor our southern zones for soaking precipitation. Another key ingredient is a backdoor cold front, forecast to slide southwest across the area from Thursday through Friday. The front will provide upslope forcing across the highlands and along the east slops of the central mountain chain, enhancing precipitation chances and associated qpf. Isentropic upglide across the eastern plains on Friday will create a high PoP scenario and support widespread soaking rains. This still looks like a much-needed and beneficial rain event with elevated stream flows possible, but very low probabilities for flash flooding (including in Ruidoso). Lightning activity will be more common across southern NM Thu/Fri, but can not be ruled out completely across northern NM. Snow levels are forecast to fall Thursday night through Friday to between 8-9Kft, with potential for significant snow accumulation at/above 9Kft and especially in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. A trailing shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeast across our area on Saturday behind the departing upper low and generate another round of showers, although more limited in coverage and with weaker forcing. Temperatures will dip below average during the Thursday through Saturday period, but especially on Friday across eastern NM where highs temperatures are forecast to be an impressive 20-30 degrees below average. Expect a brief warm-up and drying period Sunday into Monday under weak ridging aloft before the next Pacific low approaches from the west.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A weak upper level disturbance will cross the northern part of the state, leading to an increase in winds aloft (speeds rising to 30 to 40 kt at 10,000 ft MSL), and this will keep gusty conditions at the surface along and just downwind (east) of the central mountain chain through the morning. Winds aloft will decrease in speed through the afternoon, but breezy to windy conditions will still persist at the surface with the strongest gusts of 30 to 40 kt focusing near KCQC, KSXU, KTCC, and KCVN Tuesday afternoon. Winds will start to decrease in speed Tuesday evening, but a cold front will arrive from the northeast, stirring up gusts in the eastern half of New Mexico overnight into Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Moderate westerly flow aloft and a dry airmass will remain over the area through Tuesday, bringing bouts of critical fire weather conditions with daytime mixing across much of eastern NM with elevated conditions elsewhere. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain across western and central NM on Wednesday, but moisture advection will begin thereafter and continue through Thursday in advance of an approaching Pacific low. Humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will then trend up through Friday as the Pacific low and a trailing shortwave trough impact the region. At the same time, a backdoor cold front will progress southwest across the area through Friday, enhancing chances for wetting precipitation along/east of the central mountain chain. Snow levels will lower Thursday night into Friday, with significant snow accumulation likely above 8,500-9,000ft along the central mountain chain. Much cooler and more humid conditions with below average temperatures will prevail from Thursday through Saturday, followed by a brief period of drying/warming on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific low approaches from the west.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 37 67 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 24 62 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 30 64 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 26 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 70 30 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 70 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 74 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 35 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 34 79 40 79 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 23 57 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 39 65 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 10 Red River....................... 27 52 30 56 / 0 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 22 58 23 61 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 26 65 30 69 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 32 66 32 68 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 35 73 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 74 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 76 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 41 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 38 80 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 37 79 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 42 78 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 39 79 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 40 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 35 70 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 72 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 37 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 37 72 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 39 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 46 76 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 69 48 69 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 31 67 29 62 / 0 0 5 30 Raton........................... 31 70 30 67 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 34 72 33 70 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 35 68 33 68 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 38 75 35 67 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 37 73 35 67 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 44 81 41 77 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 43 75 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 83 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 47 83 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 46 85 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 44 83 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 49 88 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 47 82 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.