textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Some storms may turn severe during the afternoon and evening today through Thursday along and east of the central mountain chain, where large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms over northeast and east central areas both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with record and near-record high temperatures each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

With a 597 DAM high pressure system setting daily maximum 500 mb height records over the state, high temperatures will continue to trend upward most places today, then a few degrees warmer again in most central and western locations on Tuesday. Record and near- record high temperatures are forecast both days as readings peak around 5-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. The NBM, which has done a pretty good job on the high temperature forecast for the eastern plains the last two days, predicts a high of 105 F in Roswell today. Will continue the Heat Advisory there from 12-8 pm. This will be the third day in a row with a high temperature greater than or equal to 103 F in Roswell, and Tuesday will make the fourth.

Otherwise, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift to northeast and east central areas this afternoon and evening, then along and east of the entire central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a series of moist backdoor fronts enters the state. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also continue over western areas, where wetting footprints will shrink in size as humidities trend lower. There has been an uptick in new lightning caused fire starts recently, and this trend will likely continue Monday and Tuesday west of the central mountain chain. Farther east, shear and instability profiles will be favorable for some strong-to-severe storms during the afternoon and evening both today and Tuesday over northeast and east central areas, and potentially over southeast areas as well on Tuesday. Further, PWATS near and above 1.20" over eastern areas today, and especially Tuesday, will enable some thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates a few storms will be capable of producing nearly 2 inches of rainfall over northeast and east central areas on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will create sufficient antecedent soil moisture for an increased risk of flash flooding from storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Convection from storms in the east on Tuesday will send outflow boundaries westward into central and western parts of the state Tuesday night increasing humidities there enough for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. The center of high pressure aloft will also sink over the southwest NM border on Wednesday as a somewhat strong shortwave trough passes southeastward over the northeast half of the state. Shear and instability will again be favorable for severe storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Wednesday. PWATs will remain elevated over the east as well with a continued risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, where NBM 90th percentile QPF suggest a few of the stronger storms will again be capable of producing over 1 inch of rainfall.

Behind Wednesday's upper level trough some drier air will begin to filter over the state from the northwest with a downtick in storm coverage on Thursday over northwest and west central areas. Elsewhere, scattered to isolated showers and storms will return Thursday afternoon and evening, but rain intensity should decrease some. Downward trend in storm coverage and rainfall intensity will continue areawide on Friday as the high pressure system aloft flattens out and elongates along an east-west ridge axis over southern NM. However, models depict the high pressure center shifting eastward over NM Saturday, and all the way to the Mississippi River Valley Sunday, allowing better monsoon moisture for thunderstorms to travel north and northeastward over the forecast area.

Temperature-wise, record and near-record high temperatures will continue daily through the end of the work week, despite a few to 5 degrees of cooling east of the continental divide on Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to trend upward as drier air moves in Thursday, then continue to do so most places through Saturday, before trending cooler with the increased monsoon moisture over central and western areas on Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to western and northern areas this afternoon and evening. A moist backdoor front will produce a north and northeast wind shift on the northeast plains during the morning, then the front will serve as a focus for storms over northeast and east central areas during the afternoon and evening hours. During the afternoon and evening, some storms on the eastern plains along and north of I-40, and as far west as the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountain, will probably turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Farther west, a few of today's stronger storms will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storm motion on Sunday afternoon and evening will generally be toward the northeast and east around 5-10 KT, except along and east of the central mountain chain where most storms should move toward the east and southeast around 5-15 KT. Finally, record and near- record high temperatures will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain this afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Today and Tuesday, pockets of critically low minimum humidity will decrease over east central areas while increasing central and northwest. Increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains during the first half of the week should spread into western areas well Wednesday due to thunderstorm outflows moving in that direction Tuesday evening. The latest model runs have weakened the gap wind through the central mountain chain Tuesday evening, but some locally strong winds will still be possible downwind of thunderstorms and below canyons opening into the central valley from the east. Until modest Gulf moisture pushes into western areas mid-week, the size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande will continue to decrease today and again Tuesday. Besides the risk of new fire starts over western areas early this week, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow all week long and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 63 96 62 / 5 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 91 51 91 51 / 10 10 20 5 Cuba............................ 90 59 91 58 / 20 20 10 20 Gallup.......................... 91 53 91 54 / 20 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 87 55 87 54 / 30 20 30 20 Grants.......................... 90 55 91 55 / 20 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 87 57 89 57 / 20 10 30 20 Magdalena....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 10 Datil........................... 86 58 87 59 / 20 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 99 63 100 64 / 10 5 20 5 Chama........................... 84 51 84 51 / 30 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 86 63 86 62 / 40 20 40 30 Pecos........................... 89 59 89 57 / 20 10 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 56 85 54 / 20 30 40 40 Red River....................... 76 46 75 46 / 30 30 50 50 Angel Fire...................... 80 40 80 38 / 40 30 50 40 Taos............................ 88 55 88 54 / 20 30 30 30 Mora............................ 86 55 85 53 / 30 20 50 40 Espanola........................ 94 62 94 62 / 10 10 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 89 62 90 61 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 92 60 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 96 69 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 69 97 68 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 66 99 67 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 69 97 69 / 5 10 10 20 Belen........................... 98 65 100 66 / 5 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 98 67 98 67 / 5 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 98 64 99 65 / 5 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 98 68 99 68 / 5 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 98 65 99 66 / 5 5 5 10 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 66 / 5 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 97 68 98 68 / 5 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 100 69 101 69 / 10 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 63 91 62 / 10 10 20 20 Tijeras......................... 91 64 92 63 / 10 10 20 20 Edgewood........................ 92 60 93 60 / 10 10 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 56 94 56 / 10 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 90 59 90 58 / 20 10 20 30 Mountainair..................... 92 60 93 59 / 10 10 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 60 / 10 5 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 95 67 97 67 / 5 10 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 88 63 89 60 / 10 10 30 10 Capulin......................... 87 56 85 54 / 40 40 60 60 Raton........................... 91 54 89 53 / 40 40 60 50 Springer........................ 93 56 91 54 / 30 30 60 50 Las Vegas....................... 89 55 87 53 / 30 20 50 40 Clayton......................... 97 63 92 62 / 30 50 50 60 Roy............................. 93 61 91 59 / 30 30 40 60 Conchas......................... 100 67 98 65 / 20 20 20 50 Santa Rosa...................... 97 66 96 64 / 10 20 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 102 68 99 64 / 10 20 20 60 Clovis.......................... 102 69 99 66 / 10 10 20 40 Portales........................ 103 68 101 66 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 102 69 100 67 / 10 10 10 30 Roswell......................... 105 72 104 71 / 5 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 99 67 98 65 / 5 5 10 5 Elk............................. 96 64 96 62 / 5 5 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.