textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across the northern and western high terrain each afternoon may produce gusty, erratic wind gusts with little to no precipitation.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Pleasant Autumn weather looks to remain for the short term period. The high pressure over the Four Corners region is slowly weakening and shifting eastward. This is a result of an upper level shortwave currently over northern NV. The progression of this shortwave towards NM throughout tonight and tomorrow will allow for another crop of isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm to develop across northern and western high terrain this afternoon. The primary hazard from any shower/storm will be brief gusty and erratic winds up to 40-50mph as DCAPE values will rise to and above 750 J/kg in several areas. Little to no accumulation is expected. This activity will be diurnally driven, so the threat for any gusty winds will subside after sunset. Temperatures today are forecast to be near to above average, with high 70s to low 80s across lower elevation areas, with high terrain areas in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The associated jet streak with the upper level shortwave sits over the southwest quadrant of NM on Wednesday, while a weak 500mb inverted trough remains situated across the state. The upper level flow interacting with the trough likely produces the highest coverage of showers and storms across the high terrain in western, northern, and possibly central NM. This activity is still not expected to produce much in the way of accumulation, but cannot rule out isolated areas of 0.1". The primary hazard remains gusty and erratic wind gusts, similar to Tuesday. Temperatures cool a few degrees Wednesday due to slightly lower pressure heights, but still remain near to slightly above average.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The synoptic pattern does not change much for Thursday, but the inverted trough looks to move further to the southeast, potentially into TX. This should bring the coverage of showers/storms down a touch, but remnant moisture within the state looks to keep isolated to locally scattered activity around. As has been the case, the primary threat will continue to be gusty winds, with low chances for accumulation above 0.1". The upper level flow begins to become more zonal into Friday and the weekend as attention turns to a robust low pressure developing in the PNW along with the likely remnants of Hurricane Rachel. How this trough digs through western CONUS through the weekend and interacts with the remnants of Rachel is the focus point for a potential more active period of weather. The current favored trajectory of the systems brings the low pressure down towards CA and NV, with Rachel's remnants being absorbed along the trough axis and ejected into the Desert Southwest. At this time, precipitation is primarily favored over western NM through the late weekend and into next week. Orographic forcing is likely to enhance rainfall amounts across western NM. Currently, heavier precipitation looks to remain primarily in AZ, however subtle shifts in the placement and movement of each feature can allow for the location of heavier precipitation to move. Keep an eye on the forecast as we approach next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist throughout the TAF period, outside of very localized patchy fog between through 15z in high terrain valley locations, including KAXX. Isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm may develop across the high terrain in northern and western NM after 18z today. Primary hazard will be brief gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 35kts. Otherwise, light winds will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Near to slightly above average temperatures remain statewide with light winds. However, brief gusty and erratic winds may be observed each afternoon across the northern and western high terrain underneath isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms. Ventilation rates remain poor to fair, though will begin to increase this weekend as southwest winds start to increase statewide. Precipitation chances begin to return to western NM during this time as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 53 78 51 / 5 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 77 42 76 40 / 10 5 10 10 Cuba............................ 76 48 74 46 / 10 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 78 47 75 44 / 10 10 20 10 El Morro........................ 75 45 72 43 / 20 5 30 10 Grants.......................... 77 47 74 45 / 20 5 20 10 Quemado......................... 75 46 74 44 / 10 0 20 10 Magdalena....................... 74 50 73 49 / 5 0 5 5 Datil........................... 72 46 71 45 / 10 0 20 5 Reserve......................... 78 48 78 47 / 5 5 20 10 Glenwood........................ 81 54 83 53 / 5 10 20 20 Chama........................... 71 42 69 40 / 20 20 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 75 52 72 50 / 10 10 5 5 Pecos........................... 77 46 75 45 / 10 5 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 43 71 41 / 10 5 20 10 Red River....................... 69 36 65 35 / 20 5 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 72 30 69 28 / 10 5 10 10 Taos............................ 76 43 74 41 / 10 0 10 5 Mora............................ 75 44 72 42 / 10 5 5 5 Espanola........................ 80 48 77 47 / 10 5 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 76 50 74 49 / 10 5 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 49 77 47 / 10 0 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 54 79 53 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 56 80 55 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 50 82 50 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 54 81 53 / 5 0 0 5 Belen........................... 80 54 82 53 / 5 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 81 52 80 51 / 5 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 80 52 82 51 / 5 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 81 53 81 52 / 5 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 80 53 82 52 / 5 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 78 53 78 51 / 5 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 80 54 80 52 / 5 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 80 55 81 55 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 49 75 47 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 75 51 76 49 / 5 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 76 48 76 47 / 5 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 45 78 45 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 48 75 47 / 0 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 74 48 75 48 / 0 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 75 54 79 54 / 0 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 72 46 72 45 / 0 0 20 5 Capulin......................... 77 47 75 46 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 82 47 80 46 / 5 0 10 5 Springer........................ 83 46 81 45 / 5 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 78 46 75 45 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 84 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 81 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 85 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 82 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 80 55 78 54 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 76 52 75 52 / 5 0 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.