textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026 - Light rain showers and high terrain snow will move across western, central, and southern New Mexico this afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1117 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

The latest GOES water vapor imagery shows a progressive flow regime across the northern CONUS with a less progressive south extending trough becoming a cutoff low near the southern tip of NV into AZ. This low is pulling up some Pacific moisture with modest H7 Theta-e advection now taking place across western NM. Lift associated with the H5 Low and orographic enhancement will help generate scattered showers with coverage shifting from west central NM today to more of the southern portions of the state tonight. There is a low chance (<20%) for an isolated thunderstorm or two across mainly the west central portions of the state this afternoon where latest REFS guidance suggest 200-500 J/kg SBCAPE will be present (also supported by latest SPC mesoanalysis). Median QPF amounts range between around 0.10" and 0.40" which seems like a reasonable range for most locations. For the much more isolated locations (<10% coverage) that end up with deeper convection and lightning activity, or more orographic enhancement, total amounts between 0.50" and 0.75" will have a higher chance of being observed. Snow levels are around 8500 to 9500 ft, so some of the higher elevations will see light snow, with little to no accumulation expected.

The H5 closed low is expected to shift south into northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow, before shifting east northeast towards the Trans-Pecos region of Texas Sunday into Monday. This storm track will bring an end to precip chances by Saturday morning for all but the far southeast portions of New Mexico, leading to increasing sunshine and a gradual warming trend through the weekend.

Ward

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1117 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

Upper level ridging will become more dominant going into next week with mainly tranquil and mild weather expected. North to northwest flow will setup over the plains towards the middle of the week which will support a cold front skirting the area in the Wed-Fri timeframe, but guidance does not favor much in the way of precip chances until at least next weekend, if not beyond.

Ward

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the 18Z TAF period for most sites, excluding KGUP where IFR conditions could occur due to low ceilings caused by showers. -TSRA has also been added to KGUP until 19Z to account for current lightning in the area. Winds will remain light to variable for the forecast period at all sites. PROB 30 groups have been added to KABQ, KROW, and KAEG to account for possible showers moving through this evening and tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain limited over the next several days as winds and humidity stay below critical thresholds. Recent moisture has also helped improve fuel conditions across the region. Scattered showers are possible across portions of western, central, and southern NM today and Saturday. Drier weather and gradual warming are then expected through much of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 36 59 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 58 34 58 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 34 57 31 60 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 56 32 58 / 50 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 57 33 58 / 60 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 34 56 31 59 / 40 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 40 55 37 57 / 50 20 0 0 Datil........................... 36 51 33 54 / 40 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 62 32 66 / 20 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 40 66 37 69 / 20 5 0 0 Chama........................... 28 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 36 55 36 56 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 32 58 30 61 / 5 20 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 48 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 53 18 58 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 58 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 32 62 31 62 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 36 57 34 58 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 34 59 32 60 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 64 41 65 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 40 64 36 65 / 40 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 66 36 67 / 40 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 64 39 65 / 30 5 0 0 Belen........................... 42 64 36 66 / 50 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 41 66 37 67 / 30 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 39 65 34 66 / 40 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 66 37 66 / 30 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 41 65 36 66 / 40 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 62 39 63 / 30 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 64 38 65 / 30 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 46 64 43 66 / 50 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 57 37 59 / 30 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 59 37 60 / 40 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 58 34 60 / 30 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 60 29 62 / 30 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 54 34 57 / 20 20 0 0 Mountainair..................... 37 56 33 59 / 50 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 38 55 34 59 / 70 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 58 38 63 / 60 30 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 37 48 36 53 / 70 40 10 5 Capulin......................... 32 55 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 29 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 29 59 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 30 56 31 58 / 0 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 38 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 57 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 38 62 38 64 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 39 58 37 61 / 10 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 39 61 38 63 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 40 60 40 64 / 5 10 0 0 Portales........................ 41 60 40 64 / 5 10 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 40 59 38 64 / 5 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 46 55 43 59 / 50 40 10 5 Picacho......................... 41 53 39 59 / 60 40 5 5 Elk............................. 38 52 37 57 / 70 60 20 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.