textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- There is a high risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 6 PM MDT.

- Scattered storms Saturday become more widespread over northeastern New Mexico on Sunday. Isolated flash flooding may occur each afternoon.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across portions of northern New Mexico through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 126 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Through the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will be more concentrated over the south central mountains and the northeastern high terrain with minimal activity projected to develop west of the central mountain chain as drier air continues to pivot into the area. The flow aloft is generally from the south and southwest across the forecast area with a closed subtropical low working up the toward the Big Bend area while a separate shortwave trough slides into eastern CO. The latter feature will cause upper level winds to veer more westerly through the late afternoon and early evening while a cooler, moist surface boundary settles into southeast CO and far northern portions of Colfax and Union counties. This will provide enough directional shear (25-30 kt in the 0-6 km layer) for a strong to severe storm or two in this area. Cold pools will slide eastward into the plains through the early evening, leading to new storms on a more sparse (isolated to scattered) basis. Storms are modeled to exit or dissipate prior to midnight, and convective cold pools will help modify or push the aforementioned boundary farther south and west overnight. The leading edge of the boundary will likely slide south of I-40 while struggling to infiltrate past the Sangre de Cristos toward the Rio Grande early Sunday morning.

This moist boundary will raise dewpoints and also provide an upslope wind component on eastern faces of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, leading to another, potentially more active day for deep, moist convection over northeastern NM on Sunday. Around 25-30 kt of bulk shear will blanket much of the northeastern quadrant of NM, and a few strong to severe storms will develop. The boundary will also converge with a more organized southeasterly return flow in the east central plains and central highlands on Sunday where a secondary focal point for storm development is projected. Meanwhile, the upper high will be starting to nudge westward a bit, lowering winds aloft and reducing steering flow and storm motions with PWATs climbing to 80th to 90th percentiles in the area. This will keep a threat for isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon, mainly along the central mountain chain.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 126 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A moisture plume looks to remain intact into Monday, stretching from Sonora and the Gila into northeastern NM, however the overall PWAT values will decrease (generally within a 0.8 to 1.1 inch range). The upper high will be continuing to elongate on a west- east axis as pressure rises build farther west. This will keep the area stretching from the southwestern mountains toward the Sangre de Cristos favored for thunderstorm development Monday afternoon with steering flow turning a bit more slow and erratic.

Storm coverage looks to reduce substantially into Tuesday and Wednesday with just isolated to scattered cells initiating over the high terrain, mostly from southwestern to northeastern NM. While high pressure will remain somewhat elongated along a west-east axis through this Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, it will be building more centrally over NM, causing PWATs to reduce and limit the storm coverage.

There is potential for the upper high to nudge a bit to the northwest, becoming more concentric over the Four Corners into west TX, and this could open the door to another backdoor front as an upper trough moves into the midwest. Northeastern NM zones would be the most obvious beneficiaries of this potential increase in moisture and upslope flow on Thursday before the cold pool could be convectively enhanced and assisted farther south and west. However, confidence is rather low in the finer details with this scenario, given much uncertainty with the larger scale features.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be concentrated over the south central mountains and northeastern quadrant of New Mexico this afternoon with storms slowly moving and redeveloping into the far eastern plains this evening. Most storms will then exit New Mexico before midnight. Typical aviation weather hazards will accompany stronger storms with gusty downburst winds, hail, frequent lightning, and hail. Storms will tend to produce larger hail and gustier winds in northeastern New Mexico. A weak, but moist, cold front will slide into northeastern New Mexico tonight, setting the stage for more strong, and perhaps severe, storms Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Generally, no widespread areas of strong or long duration gusty winds are forecast over the next several days. The exception will be Sunday night downwind (west) of vulnerable gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain such as the Glorieta Pass near Santa Fe and Tijeras Canyon near Albuquerque. Gust in these areas may approach 30 to 45 mph for a couple to a few hours Sunday night. Beyond this, gusty winds will mostly emanate from thunderstorm outflows. Thunderstorm activity peaks Sunday (mainly central to northeastern NM) into Monday (Gila northeastward to the Sangre de Cristos) where wetting rainfall will be most likely. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out in northeastern NM, mainly on Sunday. Good to excellent humidity recover is slated for much of central and eastern NM Sunday night into Monday morning and also Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some mention of dry thunderstorms has been included in the forecast through Monday, mainly in north central to northwestern zones where drier air at the surface will be found. Therefore, a few new lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out. Reduced moisture and storm activity Tuesday onward will lead to less wetting rainfall and also hotter, above normal temperatures. Afternoon humidity readings of 15-25% will become more commonplace Tuesday and each subsequent day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 59 92 64 93 / 0 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 48 89 52 88 / 0 0 10 20 Cuba............................ 57 88 58 86 / 0 5 20 40 Gallup.......................... 55 88 57 88 / 0 5 5 30 El Morro........................ 54 83 55 82 / 0 10 20 60 Grants.......................... 56 88 58 86 / 0 10 20 60 Quemado......................... 57 84 57 84 / 5 40 20 60 Magdalena....................... 63 85 62 83 / 10 30 40 60 Datil........................... 57 82 57 80 / 10 30 40 70 Reserve......................... 56 89 56 88 / 10 30 20 70 Glenwood........................ 62 94 62 93 / 10 30 20 70 Chama........................... 49 82 51 81 / 0 5 10 40 Los Alamos...................... 61 86 61 83 / 0 20 30 60 Pecos........................... 56 84 56 83 / 5 70 40 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 82 55 81 / 5 20 20 50 Red River....................... 44 74 45 73 / 10 40 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 38 77 39 77 / 5 50 40 60 Taos............................ 53 85 55 83 / 0 20 20 40 Mora............................ 52 79 52 79 / 10 70 40 70 Espanola........................ 58 92 59 89 / 0 20 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 61 87 61 84 / 5 50 30 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 90 59 87 / 0 40 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 91 66 89 / 0 40 40 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 93 67 90 / 0 30 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 94 62 92 / 0 20 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 94 66 91 / 0 20 30 30 Belen........................... 64 95 65 92 / 0 20 40 20 Bernalillo...................... 64 94 64 91 / 0 20 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 61 94 62 91 / 0 20 40 30 Corrales........................ 65 95 65 92 / 0 20 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 63 94 64 91 / 0 20 40 30 Placitas........................ 64 90 64 88 / 0 30 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 66 93 66 90 / 0 20 30 30 Socorro......................... 69 95 68 93 / 5 20 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 86 58 84 / 0 50 40 60 Tijeras......................... 61 87 60 85 / 0 40 40 60 Edgewood........................ 57 86 57 85 / 0 50 40 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 88 55 86 / 0 60 40 50 Clines Corners.................. 57 83 56 82 / 10 60 50 60 Mountainair..................... 58 87 57 85 / 5 60 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 59 85 58 85 / 10 70 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 64 89 63 89 / 10 60 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 54 82 54 82 / 20 40 30 50 Capulin......................... 54 79 54 82 / 50 70 60 50 Raton........................... 54 83 54 85 / 20 80 50 50 Springer........................ 55 84 55 86 / 20 70 50 50 Las Vegas....................... 55 81 55 82 / 20 70 40 60 Clayton......................... 61 84 60 89 / 80 40 70 20 Roy............................. 58 83 58 85 / 50 50 60 30 Conchas......................... 64 91 63 94 / 50 40 60 20 Santa Rosa...................... 63 89 62 91 / 30 40 60 20 Tucumcari....................... 64 92 63 95 / 50 40 60 10 Clovis.......................... 67 93 65 95 / 30 20 20 5 Portales........................ 67 95 65 96 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 94 66 94 / 20 30 60 5 Roswell......................... 70 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 63 91 62 92 / 10 30 10 10 Elk............................. 59 87 58 87 / 20 40 10 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.