textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain each afternoon through Friday may produce erratic wind gusts with localized moderate rainfall amounts.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

- Light rain will expand across western and central New Mexico over the weekend, turning more spotty into Monday and Tuesday of next week while breezy to windy conditions turn more common.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Upper level winds are very light, but are in the midst of transitioning more uniformly southwesterly today. Speeds in the 700- 500 mb layer will tend to range between 5 to 15 kt with PWATs remaining low, roughly 0.4 to 0.6 inches across the forecast area. Surface dewpoints will remain in the 30's and 40's by this afternoon, and modest instability (generally 200-500 J/kg surface- based CAPE) will favor the western and northern high terrain where very sparse thunderstorms will develop. Storms will tend to drift northeastward, but will not sustain themselves very far off of their high terrain origins. Temperatures will run close to yesterday's readings again, near to 8 degrees above normal with the biggest departures occurring in the far northern tier of NM.

Upstream features of note, a cold core low near 34N, 130W and tropical storm Rachel, will get set into more of an northeastward motion on Saturday. The warm core remnants of Rachel will get ingested into the warm sector ahead of the cold core low, moving just offshore of the Baja peninsula by late Saturday afternoon. This is still projected to pump increased moisture into southern CA and AZ with much more subdued rises into western NM (PWATs struggling to climb to 0.6 to 0.9 inch). Increased mid to high level cloud cover will seep into NM from the southwest, moderating the instability to more meager numbers (100-400 J/kg of CAPE) that will stay over the western half of the state. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in western zones with QPF amounts tending to stay below 0.25 inch in most locations. Temperatures will cool in these western zones with the additional moisture and cloud cover, but will still remain near normal on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The eastern Pacific low and remnants of Rachel will be drawn into southern CA on Sunday with the deepest subtropical moisture staying close to the lower Colorado river basin. PWATs will raise a bit more in NM, up to 0.75 to 1.0 inch, but with limited instability, most shower and thunderstorm activity will be reliant on upper level forcing from the low itself, and that will remain mostly relegated to the western half of NM with only spotty to scattered coverage at that. Temperatures will hover close to normal in the western half of the forecast area while eastern plains zones stay above by 5 to 10 degrees in breezy to windy southerly flow.

A new, separate low then drops down the CA coastline on Monday and then rounds southern CA and crosses into neighboring southwestern states by Tuesday before trekking over the central Rockies into Wednesday. This cold core low is not shown to be as deep as it was advertised 24 hours ago with some discontinuities in the track also appearing in deterministic and probabilistic/ensemble guidance. Not surprisingly, this has large consequences with regards to the fate of any subtropical moisture from the next tropical storm, Simon. Latest model runs are at battle on whether to draw the moisture northward before a potent dry slot arrives, and it appears that the dry slot is winning for much of the forecast area. The southeastern quarter of NM might be able draw some moisture in before getting dry-slotted late Tuesday, but confidence is lowering in the overall likelihood and extent of precipitation. The POPs have been trimmed significantly more, and instead a trend to more fall-like temperatures is looking to be the more likely and reasonable impact, especially into Tuesday and Wednesday as the Pacific front overtakes NM. Daytime highs for much of the western half of the forecast area are on track to fall 5 to 15 degrees below normal for mid October on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will turn cooler, with a few western and northern locales getting closer to the freezing mark, but still most areas will remain near to slightly above average into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Lighter, drier, and cooler northwest flow aloft on Thursday would relax more into Friday with no notable or widespread impacts foreseen.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place and expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. A light northerly drainage wind will be possible before and through dawn in the middle to upper Rio Grande valley, but speeds should tend to remain light at 3 to 8 knots. A few high terrain thunderstorms will develop again Friday afternoon, mostly over the northern and western mountain ranges with very spotty and sparse coverage. Any storms will be more inclined to produce gusty downburst winds and lightning rather than appreciable rainfall before fizzling out in the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Temperatures will remain near to almost 10 degrees above normal today with the northern zones exceeding climatology by the most. These warmer than normal anomalies will reduce and redistribute themselves eastward into the weekend and more-so early next week as a pair of disturbances and tropical storm remnants skirt the Land of Enchantment. Humidity will be lowest this afternoon, ranging from 15 to 30%, then steadily rising day-by-day to a more respectable 25 to 45% range through Monday and Tuesday of next week. As for wind, very light breezes today will turn a bit more moderate (5 to 15 mph) on Saturday before increasing more Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons (roughly 15 to 40 mph). Fortunately, humidity will be escalating during this time, and fuels are still benefiting from late September rains, so no critical fire weather is anticipated. Additional rainfall through the next several days will favor the western half of NM this weekend, before potentially focusing into the eastern plains Monday and Tuesday. Despite the pair of potent lows and available tropical moisture to the south, ingredients do not seem to be optimally aligning for widespread soaking rainfall this weekend through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 54 75 55 / 0 10 40 70 Dulce........................... 76 42 71 45 / 5 10 40 70 Cuba............................ 72 47 70 50 / 5 5 20 60 Gallup.......................... 77 47 73 49 / 10 20 40 60 El Morro........................ 73 45 69 46 / 10 20 50 40 Grants.......................... 75 47 72 50 / 10 20 50 30 Quemado......................... 74 47 71 50 / 10 10 30 20 Magdalena....................... 73 50 71 54 / 5 5 20 10 Datil........................... 71 45 69 49 / 10 10 40 20 Reserve......................... 78 47 75 51 / 10 5 30 30 Glenwood........................ 82 54 81 55 / 5 0 30 50 Chama........................... 69 43 65 44 / 5 10 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 72 50 70 52 / 5 0 10 30 Pecos........................... 72 45 71 50 / 5 5 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 44 68 48 / 5 0 10 30 Red River....................... 63 38 59 41 / 5 0 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 68 32 65 37 / 10 5 10 20 Taos............................ 73 44 71 47 / 0 0 10 20 Mora............................ 71 41 70 47 / 10 5 5 20 Espanola........................ 78 50 76 53 / 5 0 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 73 48 71 53 / 5 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 48 74 52 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 55 77 60 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 56 78 59 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 55 80 59 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 54 78 59 / 0 0 5 20 Belen........................... 80 53 80 57 / 0 0 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 80 54 79 58 / 0 0 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 80 52 80 57 / 0 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 80 54 79 59 / 0 0 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 80 52 80 58 / 0 0 5 20 Placitas........................ 77 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 79 55 78 59 / 0 0 5 20 Socorro......................... 80 55 80 59 / 0 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 49 71 53 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 73 51 73 55 / 5 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 75 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 72 49 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 73 49 73 52 / 5 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 73 49 73 53 / 5 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 75 54 76 57 / 10 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 68 48 70 52 / 10 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 73 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 77 44 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 79 43 80 51 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 73 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 80 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 75 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 58 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 82 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 83 56 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 82 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 56 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 78 53 81 57 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 51 77 55 / 10 5 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.