textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026 - Severe thunderstorms are forecast to return to the forecast area this afternoon and evening, when large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats.

- River flooding will continue over parts of northwest New Mexico today. The flash flood risk will also continue in parts of northwest and west central New Mexico today through this evening.

- Heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely along and east of the central mountain chain this weekend with a risk of flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1226 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue mainly from the continental divide eastward today and tonight as an upper level low pressure system drawing very rich subtropical moisture northward over NM exits northeastward from the Great Basin across the northern Rockies. The most likely rain amount today and tonight will generally vary from 0.10-0.50", but the NBM 90th Percentile QPF (high-end scenario for planning) depicts a 10 percent chance that some locations will receive locally higher amounts over 1.5" from Mount Taylor northward to the CO border and northeastward to the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Much of the area from Mount Taylor north northeastward to the Jemez and San Juan Mountains accumulated 1-2" of rain on Thursday and Thursday night, with locally higher amounts. It will only take moderate rainfall to produce flash flooding in these areas today, so we will continue the Flood Watch for Flash Flooding in these areas until midnight tonight.

In addition, shear and instability profiles again appear sufficient for some storms to turn severe over the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, high temperatures will trend cooler in most places today, with readings varying from a few degrees below 1991-2020 averages along NM's western border, and around 5 degrees above the averages along the eastern border.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1226 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

In the wake of the exiting aformentioned upper low, a second upper level low pressure system will form over southern CA today, then eject northeastward over the Four Corners and CO Sunday and Sunday night. This slow-moving system will again draw extremely rich subtropical moisture northward over the forecast area producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night with the greatest coverage over central and eastern areas. A line of clearing will advance eastward over western parts of the forecast area Sunday, then through central areas as well Sunday night, while convection remains very active farther east. With unseasonably high PWATs reaching around 0.80" along the central mountain chain, and as much as 1.15" farther east, some storms over central and eastern areas Saturday, then over eastern areas Sunday, will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour. Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday night are currently progged to reach around around 0.50-3.0" along and just east of the central mountain chain, and from 1-4" farther east, with lighter amounts farther west. NBM 90th Percentile amounts for this period reach a staggering 3-7" across the eastern plains, with locally higher amounts possible across the northeast plains.

A few to 4" of snow are also forecast on the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Saturday night through Sunday night, where 700 mb temperatures look to bottom out around +2 to +4 C. Otherwise, high temperatures across the forecast area will continue to trend cooler through the weekend, when readings should vary from a few to around 9 degrees below 30-year averages.

A south and southeasterly return flow of low level moisture looks to linger over the eastern plains Monday and Monday night, enabling additional perturbations crossing aloft to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to trend downward, so the risk of additional flash flooding will be low. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday as an active storm track north of NM draws dry southwest winds over the forecast area. A few isolated storms may return to east central and southeast areas on Tuesday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms may increase in coverage again across the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday, depending on how much progress another upper level low pressure system can make advancing into the western US. At this time confidence is low in another widespread rain event over the forecast area, since model differences in track and timing of the weather system are so great.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will produce MVFR and localized IFR conditions mainly west of the Rio Grande until mid morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast mainly along and east of the continental divide today and tonight, including the eastern plains. Storm motion will be toward the northeast at speeds around 30-45 KT. Some storms will probably turn severe this afternoon and evening by producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado from a cell or two.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The main fire weather concern through the weekend will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow. In addition, south winds will become breezy to windy mainly along and east of the northern mountains this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 46 64 46 / 20 20 60 70 Dulce........................... 62 40 63 39 / 80 40 70 90 Cuba............................ 62 45 60 42 / 60 50 70 90 Gallup.......................... 63 40 62 36 / 10 10 30 20 El Morro........................ 64 40 60 36 / 10 10 40 30 Grants.......................... 67 42 62 40 / 20 20 50 40 Quemado......................... 66 42 63 37 / 5 0 20 10 Magdalena....................... 67 48 62 45 / 40 40 60 60 Datil........................... 64 43 59 39 / 10 20 40 30 Reserve......................... 68 43 64 38 / 20 20 50 10 Glenwood........................ 72 49 68 43 / 40 20 50 10 Chama........................... 56 39 57 36 / 80 60 80 90 Los Alamos...................... 63 46 58 44 / 70 90 80 90 Pecos........................... 66 45 58 41 / 80 80 80 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 43 58 38 / 80 70 70 90 Red River....................... 60 35 49 31 / 80 60 80 90 Angel Fire...................... 61 37 54 31 / 70 70 80 90 Taos............................ 66 42 61 38 / 70 80 70 90 Mora............................ 64 43 54 38 / 70 80 80 90 Espanola........................ 72 48 65 45 / 70 80 70 90 Santa Fe........................ 65 47 60 43 / 80 90 70 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 48 63 44 / 70 80 70 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 51 67 48 / 50 70 60 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 52 68 50 / 50 70 60 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 75 51 69 50 / 50 60 60 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 72 52 67 50 / 70 70 60 80 Belen........................... 74 51 70 50 / 30 50 50 80 Bernalillo...................... 73 51 69 49 / 70 70 60 90 Bosque Farms.................... 75 50 70 49 / 40 60 60 80 Corrales........................ 74 52 69 50 / 70 70 60 80 Los Lunas....................... 74 51 69 50 / 40 50 50 80 Placitas........................ 70 50 65 48 / 70 80 70 90 Rio Rancho...................... 72 51 67 50 / 70 70 60 80 Socorro......................... 76 53 70 52 / 40 60 60 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 65 46 61 43 / 60 80 70 80 Tijeras......................... 69 48 63 45 / 60 70 70 80 Edgewood........................ 71 46 62 43 / 60 70 70 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 46 64 43 / 60 70 70 90 Clines Corners.................. 68 47 58 43 / 70 80 70 90 Mountainair..................... 69 46 63 44 / 50 70 70 90 Gran Quivira.................... 68 47 63 45 / 60 80 70 90 Carrizozo....................... 73 51 67 49 / 40 70 70 90 Ruidoso......................... 69 47 61 46 / 50 70 70 90 Capulin......................... 66 47 55 40 / 40 70 80 90 Raton........................... 70 46 58 40 / 40 80 80 90 Springer........................ 71 48 59 41 / 50 80 80 90 Las Vegas....................... 64 46 55 41 / 80 80 80 90 Clayton......................... 71 53 62 47 / 30 50 80 90 Roy............................. 67 49 58 45 / 60 80 80 90 Conchas......................... 75 55 66 51 / 70 70 80 90 Santa Rosa...................... 72 54 63 51 / 60 60 80 90 Tucumcari....................... 77 55 68 53 / 20 70 80 90 Clovis.......................... 78 55 69 54 / 5 30 80 80 Portales........................ 79 55 70 54 / 5 30 80 80 Fort Sumner..................... 77 56 68 54 / 20 70 80 90 Roswell......................... 81 58 71 57 / 20 50 80 90 Picacho......................... 77 53 65 51 / 40 80 70 90 Elk............................. 77 50 65 49 / 30 70 80 90

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ203-204-206-207-211.