textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms today will favor northern and eastern New Mexico. A few storms may become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts the main hazard. Moderate to high chances exist for widespread beneficial rainfall across eastern New Mexico.

- Gusty west to southwest winds will return Sunday and peak on Monday and Tuesday, then come back again toward the end of the work week. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Sunday and Monday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico, but fuels may not be receptive to fire spread due to recent rainfall. Critical fire weather conditions are more likely toward the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Storms are increasing in coverage around the region, with the greatest coverage across northern NM. There is another batch of showers and storms in the southeast associated with a weak shortwave trough, but widespread low-cloud cover has prevented significant destabilization and therefore storm intensification here. There is some cold air advection aloft which will help to destabilize the atmosphere later today, but the main severe threat looks to stay off to the southeast of the CWA where sfc moisture is more abundant and clearer skies will favor stronger sfc heating. That being said, around 30 kts of bulk shear will be enough for sustained storms, which should cluster together in the southeast and eastern plains this afternoon in similar areas to yesterday. Most of this rain will be beneficial and the flash flood risk remains very low given the dry soils. The likelihood of severe wind gusts is actually higher in northern NM today where increased shear from the jet max aloft is already supporting somewhat organized storms. Since the background winds are stronger, the storms could mix down some of these stronger gusts to the sfc intermittently. Localized blowing dust from storms and even virga showers will once again be a concern in central and western areas where soil moisture remains quite low. Storms in northern NM will diminish this evening as drier air punches in from the west, but a few unorganized showers and storms will likely continue in east-central NM through around Midnight thanks to the forcing provided from the passing shortwave.

Sunday will be much drier than today in the wake of the trough passage. A brisk breeze southwest breeze will prevail across much of the area, with localized windy conditions in west-central and northeastern NM. Clear skies will prevail in the morning, then a batch of high clouds moves in from the west during the afternoon. High temperatures will generally be a few degrees higher than today, especially in the east where 24-hour temperature changes could be as much as 15 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

New Mexico will come under the influence of a longwave trough on Monday afternoon, with increasing southwest flow aloft. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail across the entire area, although winds look to remain below Wind Advisory criteria. GFS MOS guidance does show the potential for stronger wind gusts, but did not adjust the forecast significantly from the NBM given that 700 mb winds are only around 25 to 35 kts and extensive cloud cover may limit mixing heights. The trough will pick up some Pacific moisture as it moves into the Desert Southwest Monday night/Tuesday. Models are in quite good agreement with the track of this Low and the coverage of precipitation it will produce across northwestern NM. Jet forcing will be the main driver of precipitation, although orographic lift will help to squeeze out a bit more in the Tusas Mountains. Temperatures will drop behind a Pacific cold front so snow levels could drop as low as 6,500 feet in western NM late Tuesday morning. The Pacific front will fall apart as it crosses the state from west to east, with temperature changes only around 5 degrees or so in eastern NM. Quasi-zonal flow develops over the state Wednesday, with veering turning winds around to the south/southwest on Thursday in response to the deepening of another Great Basin trough.

This storm system has the potential to be cooler than the last few since it has its origins with the polar jet as opposed to the sub- tropical jet. However, the trough will struggle to push far enough south to bring that colder air into New Mexico. The most likely scenario is that this trough brings more light rain/mountain snow to northern New Mexico Friday/Saturday, with low chances for rain in the eastern plains as well if a backdoor front is pushed into eastern NM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Gusty showers and storms will increase in coverage this afternoon, with the highest coverage in the eastern plains and northern mountains. Showers will be more isolated in central and western areas, but still have the potential to produce strong outflow winds and localized blowing dust from dry microbursts. Convection decreases in coverage after 00Z, but it will likely stay active through around 06Z in far eastern NM.

Cigs should remain VFR in most of western and central NM, even during storms. MVFR cigs across the east will erode in the next few hours as storms develop. Dry air sweeping in from the west tonight should prevent the development of low clouds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Widespread storms today will favor eastern and northern New Mexico where most areas will receive light precipitation (0.05-0.25"). Showers and storms will be less numerous in western and central areas where a few dry storms will pose a threat for fire ignitions.

Westerly flow takes over tonight, pushing drier air in from the west. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will be commonplace tomorrow, with the strongest winds in the northeast corner of the state and in the West Central Mountains. Beneficial rainfall today may be enough to relieve fire weather concerns (at least temporarily) across the northeast, but that will be highly dependent on how widespread the wetting rainfall is given the long-term drought conditions ongoing here. Winds on Monday trend slightly stronger as a longwave trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Jet level winds aloft are quite impressive, but 700mb winds around 30 kts and increased cloud cover may struggle to bring very strong winds down to the surface. Widespread elevated fire weather is likely both Monday and Tuesday, with critical in the east. ERCs should drop sufficiently to ward off fire weather concerns south of I-40, but areas north of I-40 may not be as lucky given the long-term rainfall deficit. Light rain and mountain snow will favor the northwestern high terrain on Tuesday, but amounts will generally remain under 0.1".

Quasi-zonal flow overhead on Wednesday will weaken winds, but gusty southwest flow develops again late week in response to a deepening trough on the West Coast. Thursday looks to be particularly dry, with increasing changes for widespread single- digit RH. Low chances of precipitation will favor far northern NM Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 41 72 42 67 / 10 5 0 10 Dulce........................... 30 67 31 63 / 20 10 5 20 Cuba............................ 35 68 38 64 / 30 10 5 20 Gallup.......................... 32 67 32 63 / 5 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 36 65 34 62 / 10 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 33 70 33 67 / 10 5 0 10 Quemado......................... 35 67 36 64 / 5 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 43 71 46 68 / 10 0 0 5 Datil........................... 38 65 39 63 / 10 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 33 70 34 68 / 5 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 37 75 37 73 / 5 0 0 5 Chama........................... 30 59 31 56 / 20 10 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 43 66 44 63 / 40 10 0 10 Pecos........................... 38 67 38 65 / 50 5 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 63 36 60 / 20 5 0 5 Red River....................... 33 53 31 51 / 30 10 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 26 60 26 58 / 40 5 5 5 Taos............................ 32 67 32 65 / 30 5 0 5 Mora............................ 37 66 36 64 / 40 5 0 5 Espanola........................ 40 73 40 70 / 40 10 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 43 67 43 65 / 40 10 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 70 42 68 / 40 10 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 75 51 71 / 40 5 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 77 49 73 / 30 5 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 80 49 76 / 30 5 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 77 51 74 / 30 5 0 5 Belen........................... 43 80 47 75 / 30 5 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 47 78 50 75 / 30 5 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 42 80 46 75 / 30 5 0 5 Corrales........................ 47 79 50 75 / 30 5 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 43 79 48 75 / 30 5 0 5 Placitas........................ 48 73 50 70 / 40 5 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 48 77 51 74 / 30 5 0 5 Socorro......................... 47 81 52 78 / 20 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 69 46 66 / 40 5 0 10 Tijeras......................... 44 71 46 68 / 40 5 0 5 Edgewood........................ 42 72 42 68 / 40 5 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 73 38 70 / 40 5 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 41 69 40 66 / 40 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 42 72 43 68 / 30 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 43 70 45 68 / 20 5 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 49 72 49 72 / 20 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 65 45 65 / 30 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 38 67 36 67 / 40 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 71 34 70 / 30 0 0 0 Springer........................ 37 73 36 72 / 30 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 40 69 39 68 / 40 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 77 46 75 / 40 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 72 42 71 / 50 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 81 48 80 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 48 77 49 75 / 40 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 83 49 83 / 40 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 52 82 49 83 / 50 10 0 0 Portales........................ 51 82 49 83 / 50 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 48 81 49 81 / 40 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 53 85 53 84 / 40 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 77 50 76 / 30 0 0 0 Elk............................. 46 74 46 74 / 40 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.