textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026 - Lightning and strong winds from thunderstorms along the central mountain chain and nearby highlands this afternoon and early evening. A few storms across the south central high terrain could produce severe wind gusts and large hail.

- Gusty north winds across eastern New Mexico this morning and east canyon winds across central New Mexico this evening will result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles.

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations Tuesday from record temperatures in the 90s across lower elevation areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Moisture out ahead of a shortwave trough remains draped over New Mexico tonight. Radar is picking up on some very light echoes out there. although very little to no precipitation is likely reaching the ground. Localized and very brief gusty outflow winds will continue to remain a possibility through the night. A backdoor front has just pushed into far northeastern NM and will continue its trek south and westward through the night, with increasing north to northeast winds in its wake. Hi-res models are showing the strongest winds occurring around sunrise in the east-central plains, with max gusts in 40 to 50 mph range. While a few gusts over 50 mph cannot be ruled out, most guidance is keeping winds below this threshold (Wind Advisory) so no hazards have been issued. The front's progress will be stalled right along the east slopes of the central mountain chain late morning, acting as the lifting mechanism for a crop of showers and storms in the afternoon.

Scattered convection will develop over the high terrain, drifting eastward into the adjacent highlands during the afternoon hours. Ensemble mean wind shear is in the 30-40KT range and this combined with sfc based CAPE of 300-600 J/kg will be enough for some strong storms and there is a low chance of storms briefly intensifying to severe levels, with strong outflow wind gusts the main hazard of concern. Most hi-res models are showing storms dissipating as they move into the plains as they move off the frontal boundary. The lone exception may be in the southeast plains where a few hi-res models are showing a storm or two making it as far east as Roswell by the evening hours thanks to a pocket of enhanced lift provided by a N/S oriented jet streak.

In addition, convection along the central mountain chain will push the backdoor frontal boundary westward through the gaps of the central mtn chain. Wind gusts will likely peak late afternoon in both Albuquerque and Santa Fe, but the gusty winds will continue through the evening into the overnight hours as the cooler and more moist airmass spills into the Rio Grande Valley.

Quiter conditions prevail around the region on Monday as ridging builds in over the desert southwest. Temperatures will warm a few to as much as 20 degrees from Sunday's highs, with the biggest rises in the east where temps will be much cooler Sunday thanks to low cloud cover. There is a low chance of an isolated shower or two in the Sacramento mtns during the afternoon hours Monday, but almost no rainfall is expected to reach the ground with dewpoint depressions in excess of 40F.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Ridging will shift overhead Monday into Tuesday, increasing temperatures and keeping winds light. 500 mb heights peak on Tuesday around 591 dam and could exceed the 99th percentile of climatology per NAEFS. As a result, a few record highs could be threatened and pockets of moderate heat risk will develop along the Rio Grande Valley and in the eastern plains.

The ridge will begin to break down Wednesday into Thursday as the sub-tropical jet moves overhead again. This will increase south to southwest winds, but temperatures will not drop significantly since the breeze will create downsloping winds. The passage of a trough to the north could generate a few high-based showers on Thursday afternoon, with gusty outflow winds being the main concern and any wetting rainfall unlikely. Then, quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend. The strength of the flow will determine whether there are any storms, with weaker flow allowing for return flow from the Gulf to sneak into eastern NM. All ensemble means are showing higher dewpoints next weekend into the early part of the following week into eastern NM, but the signal remains washed out given model differences in the strength of the subtropical jet over the desert southwest.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

The backdoor front has surged southward to I-40 as of 11Z, but gusty north winds associated with gusty showers precede the frontal passage. North to northeast wind gusts of 25 to 35 kts will be commonplace in eastern NM this morning, with winds trending weaker this afternoon as they turn around to the east. MVFR conditions have developed in the east-central and northeast plains and will likely persist through around mid-afternoon.

Scattered storms will develop along the central mtn chain around 18Z, increasing in coverage through 21Z as they move eastward into the adjacent highlands. Most storms will dissipate by 02Z, with the exception of an isolated storm or two in the southeast plains. Outflow wind gusts combined with the backdoor frontal passage will create gusty gap winds at both KABQ and KSAF this afternoon into the night. There is a high chance (~75%) that an AWW will be needed for KABQ.

Pockets of MVFR to IFR cigs are forecast to develop along the the east slopes of the central mtn chain tonight thanks to easterly upslope flow. There is a low chance (~25%) that MVFR cigs extend eastward into Roswell.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are unlikely through next weekend. A strong backdoor front will bring strong north to northeast winds, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity to eastern NM today. The front will reach the central mountain chain this afternoon where scattered showers and storms will focus. Strong to damaging outflow winds will be the main hazard with any storms that develop. Outflow boundaries will push the frontal boundary west through the gaps of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening, creating strong east/southeast winds at the base of canyon openings. East winds will push all the way to the Cont. Divide but they will struggle to progress much further than that tonight. A warming trend is likely early next week as ridging shifts overhead. This will result in very dry conditions, with single digit humidity in most areas on Tuesday. This will also decrease mixing heights somewhat, with afternoon ventilation fair to good in most areas.

The ridge will break down mid-next week, resulting in the development of a south to southwest breeze and the potential for a few high based showers in the afternoon. Winds look to be the strongest on Thursday afternoon, but even then sustained winds should generally remain below 25 mph. Quasi-zonal flow will develop Friday into the weekend, with dry and breezy conditions creating widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. There is a low chance of dry line storms in far eastern NM this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 81 46 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 78 34 82 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 76 39 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 79 37 84 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 78 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 80 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 43 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 47 80 52 / 5 0 5 0 Datil........................... 77 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 87 42 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 91 46 91 50 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 34 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 74 47 78 54 / 10 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 70 38 79 46 / 50 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 70 39 76 46 / 20 0 0 0 Red River....................... 59 34 67 41 / 40 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 63 28 72 34 / 70 5 0 0 Taos............................ 74 34 80 40 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 64 38 78 47 / 70 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 80 44 85 49 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 44 78 51 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 42 81 48 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 50 84 58 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 48 85 54 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 47 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 49 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 45 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 48 87 54 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 44 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 48 88 55 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 45 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 50 82 56 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 49 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 52 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 45 79 54 / 20 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 45 80 53 / 20 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 40 82 50 / 20 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 36 83 44 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 39 79 48 / 30 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 41 81 51 / 20 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 74 42 79 50 / 20 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 77 49 82 56 / 20 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 70 46 76 53 / 40 10 20 0 Capulin......................... 56 34 76 43 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 63 36 82 43 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 66 37 84 43 / 30 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 66 40 81 46 / 70 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 40 80 53 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 39 79 47 / 20 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 71 42 87 52 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 41 83 49 / 20 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 70 42 86 55 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 43 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 70 43 84 52 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 73 42 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 80 50 82 54 / 20 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 75 47 81 51 / 20 20 0 0 Elk............................. 76 45 82 50 / 30 10 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.