textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico due to near-record heat.

- Localized erratic wind gust to 50 mph or greater from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall, today across much of western and northern New Mexico then in eastern New Mexico on Thursday.

- Moderate chance (30-50%) of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday, with a high chance (60-80%) on Sunday due to strengthening winds.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

High-based showers and isolated storms developing over central and western NM this afternoon will move northward while increasing in coverage thru early evening. The 18Z KABQ RAOB showed DCAPE values near 1500 J/kg with an impressive inverted-V profile to 500mb and a PWAT of 0.41". Mid and upper level moisture will continue spreading into the area thru this evening as indicated by NAEFS PWATs rising to near +2 standard deviations above climo. Unfortunately, top-down moistening will be very difficult with a very dry low level airmass in place. 12 HREF max 3-hr QPF barely shows 0.10" in a few areas so the overall impact will be downburst wind gusts >50 mph. Temps again tonight will be well above normal with mid and high level clouds taking much of the night to dissipate over central and eastern NM.

Thursday will be similar to today but with high-based showers and mostly dry storms focused across eastern NM. Central and western NM will trend drier with mostly sunny skies, slight westerly breezes, and hot temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

The weak shortwave trough responsible for the more active weather today and Thursday will shift east off the Front Range Friday. A weak backdoor cold front moving southwest into northeast NM will increase low level moisture westward to the Sangre de Cristo Mts. A few more showers and storms are possible (20-40% chance) with gusty outflow winds and brief rain again. The rest of the area will remain hot and dry with lighter winds compared to prior days.

A longwave upper level trough building south into the PacNW will allow southwest flow aloft to increase over NM Saturday. This will help to increase southwest winds areawide (gusts 20-30 mph) with even hotter temps and very low humidity.

The longwave trough is shown ejecting a leading trough axis thru the central Rockies Sunday with 700-500mb winds of 25-35 kt and surface low pressure deepening to between 987mb and 992mb over southeast CO. The latest 12Z model H5 spread has increased with timing and depth issues present again. Model discrepancies persist into Monday as well. Either way, southwest to west winds will trend stronger with very low humidity and slightly cooler temps both days. LREF wind gust probabilities >40 mph are still only 10-30% both days while the latest NBM shows the highest probs on Sunday (20-40% chance).

A pattern change toward more showers and storms may arrive across eastern NM Tuesday depending on how the H5 pattern evolves Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Scattered to numerous virga showers with embedded isolated dry thunderstorms continue to produce widespread erratic gusty winds across western and central NM this hour. PROB30s and TEMPOs are continued at western and central TAF sites through to 02Z to 03Z when this activity is expected to dwindle. Lighter and variable winds will take hold overnight with LLWS a concern across portions of eastern NM. Have included a mention of this at KROW b/w 06Z and 10Z. Prevailing westerlies take hold Thursday afternoon most locations with chances for erratic wind shifts from virga and dry thunderstorm activity shifting ot eastern NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Scattered showers and isolated dry storms across central and western NM today will move north-northeast around 15 mph into the high plains of eastern NM thru this evening. Erratic downburst wind gusts >50 mph are expected from the stronger activity along with several lightning strikes. Another round of gusty showers and dry storms will develop over eastern NM Thursday then move east into TX during the evening. While breezy west winds will coincide with subcritical humidity for a few hours over the high plains of eastern NM, confidence is not high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch given 1-hr and 10-hr fuel moisture near average over parts of eastern NM, ERC values below the 75th percentile, and RFTIs in the 3 to 4 range. Central and western NM will trend much drier with breezy west winds and hot temperatures.

A weak backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM Friday with just enough moisture and instability to develop a few storms east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The rest of the area will remain hot and dry with lighter winds compared to previous days.

A fire growing pattern will return Saturday thru Monday as an upper level trough passes north of NM. Elevated to locally critical fire weather will begin Saturday and may peak Sunday with widespread critical to potentially extreme fire weather. The dry and windy pattern may linger into Monday depending on how the upper level trough evolves across the southwest U.S.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 52 84 46 85 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 80 34 83 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 80 43 80 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 44 79 41 81 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 47 77 44 78 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 48 81 45 82 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 47 80 42 79 / 10 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 54 82 52 80 / 20 5 0 0 Datil........................... 50 79 47 77 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 47 85 40 84 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 51 88 45 88 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 42 75 36 77 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 80 53 79 / 10 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 51 80 47 80 / 20 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 77 44 77 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 44 72 36 72 / 10 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 45 73 38 73 / 20 0 0 10 Taos............................ 47 81 38 81 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 51 80 48 79 / 20 5 5 20 Espanola........................ 55 87 47 86 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 81 50 80 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 84 46 83 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 88 56 86 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 89 53 88 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 92 52 90 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 90 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 56 91 51 89 / 20 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 91 53 89 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 55 91 50 89 / 20 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 91 53 90 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 91 52 89 / 20 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 86 55 84 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 90 53 89 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 60 93 57 91 / 20 5 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 83 52 81 / 20 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 56 85 50 83 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 55 86 49 84 / 20 10 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 86 45 84 / 20 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 81 50 80 / 20 10 5 0 Mountainair..................... 54 85 50 82 / 20 10 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 55 83 52 81 / 20 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 87 57 84 / 20 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 59 81 57 78 / 20 5 5 0 Capulin......................... 52 81 46 77 / 10 10 5 20 Raton........................... 51 85 44 82 / 10 5 5 20 Springer........................ 52 87 45 84 / 10 5 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 54 82 50 82 / 20 5 5 10 Clayton......................... 61 90 57 86 / 10 20 10 20 Roy............................. 56 86 50 84 / 20 10 5 20 Conchas......................... 61 95 53 93 / 10 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 57 90 55 89 / 10 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 65 97 56 96 / 10 20 10 0 Clovis.......................... 60 97 59 96 / 0 20 10 0 Portales........................ 60 97 60 97 / 0 20 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 60 95 57 94 / 5 20 10 0 Roswell......................... 63 97 63 96 / 0 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 59 91 60 89 / 10 10 5 0 Elk............................. 58 90 57 88 / 10 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.