textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 458 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico late week into the weekend where highs climb back into the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms threatening lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages through the weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The swing dance continues between what's left of the upper low and monsoon high tonight with the low opening to a weak and deformed feature over western CO and WY. The monsoon high currently over northern TX will slide westward over eastern NM today. In terms of today's thunderstorm activity, this will set the stage for most CI over the western and northern high terrain. Steering flow will take scattered storm cells northeastward across the northwestern half of the state. Lowering PWs to ~1.00", less forcing, and the encroaching subsidence beneath the high will act to lower the threat of locally heavy rainfall producing flash flooding today. However, it will not be non-existent given already rain soaked ground conditions over western NM. A strong storm hitting the wrong place could still cause or exacerbate already existing flooding problems today. Heat builds beneath the center of the high over eastern NM where temperatures are forecast to climb into the low 100s. Prevailing southerly to southwesterly surface flow will bring WAA and downsloping into the Canadian River Valley at Tucumcari. Have bumped forecast high temperatures there a nudge to reach the 105F threshold for a Heat Advisory today.

Afternoon storms moving eastward off the CO Front Range will push a surface frontal boundary into northeastern NM by Friday morning. With the monsoon high sliding further over central and western NM, this will set the stage for a robust round of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mts. These storms will favor a southeastward motion over the adjacent highlands and eastern plains of NM Friday evening. Slower moving scattered storms will favor development with short lifespans beneath the high and over the central and western high terrain. Outflow from storms moving off the Sangre de Cristo's however will have a fair chance of pushing lower level moisture westward through the gaps of the central mountain chain Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The additional moisture pushed westward will help increase afternoon storm activity over central, south-central, and western NM Saturday and the weekend as the monsoon high nudges a bit northward more squarely over the CO San Juans. All of this is contingent upon how far the low-level moisture from convective outflow moving off the Sangre de Cristo's Friday evening advances through central, south- central and western NM.

Thereafter, the general weather pattern sees little change with the monsoon high favoring residence over NM and CO. Monsoonal moisture will see little replenishment, instead being recycled via diurnal convective thunderstorm processes. Therefore, localized heavy rainfall with small wetting footprints, gusty and erratic winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and small hail will be the main threats from any nearby or passing storm. All the while, high temperatures will range from the 70s/80s in the mountains, to 90s to low 100s in the lower elevations.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There is some isolated fog potential over far western NM predawn this morning, but slow the slow to clear broken ceilings will help limit this potential. Therefore, did not include at KFMN or KGUP. High pressure builds over NM today, limiting convection to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northwestern half of the state. Conditions clear and calm tonight into Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Afternoon thunderstorm activity sees a downtick today, with scattered storms moving SW to NE. Daily rounds of scattered to numerous slow moving afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before moving over adjacent lower elevations will be the rule each day thru the weekend and into next week. Remnant and lingering monsoonal moisture will allow for consistent good to excellent recoveries.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 91 66 98 67 / 10 5 0 5 Dulce........................... 86 54 93 54 / 30 20 20 20 Cuba............................ 86 60 90 61 / 30 20 5 10 Gallup.......................... 87 60 92 60 / 10 10 20 10 El Morro........................ 84 59 87 59 / 20 10 40 20 Grants.......................... 88 60 92 62 / 20 20 30 10 Quemado......................... 85 60 89 61 / 40 20 20 20 Magdalena....................... 88 66 90 67 / 30 10 40 30 Datil........................... 84 61 87 62 / 30 20 40 30 Reserve......................... 91 60 94 61 / 20 10 30 20 Glenwood........................ 96 64 99 65 / 20 10 10 10 Chama........................... 79 52 84 53 / 50 20 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 85 65 87 65 / 40 20 50 30 Pecos........................... 88 60 90 60 / 20 10 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 57 86 58 / 50 30 50 20 Red River....................... 74 49 76 51 / 40 30 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 78 48 81 48 / 40 20 80 20 Taos............................ 87 57 89 57 / 40 20 40 20 Mora............................ 86 57 85 57 / 30 20 70 20 Espanola........................ 92 65 95 66 / 40 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 88 64 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 63 93 63 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 70 96 70 / 10 10 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 71 97 71 / 20 20 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 69 98 69 / 20 20 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 70 97 70 / 20 20 5 20 Belen........................... 97 69 99 69 / 20 20 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 96 69 98 70 / 20 20 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 96 67 98 67 / 20 20 5 20 Corrales........................ 96 69 98 70 / 20 20 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 96 68 98 68 / 10 20 5 20 Placitas........................ 92 67 94 69 / 20 10 5 30 Rio Rancho...................... 95 69 97 70 / 20 20 5 20 Socorro......................... 99 72 101 74 / 10 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 64 90 64 / 10 10 10 30 Tijeras......................... 89 65 92 64 / 10 10 10 30 Edgewood........................ 91 62 92 62 / 10 10 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 59 94 59 / 10 10 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 88 61 89 60 / 10 10 30 30 Mountainair..................... 92 62 93 61 / 5 5 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 90 63 91 63 / 5 5 30 40 Carrizozo....................... 94 70 95 69 / 5 0 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 87 64 89 63 / 20 5 30 20 Capulin......................... 89 58 86 58 / 20 20 60 50 Raton........................... 93 59 91 57 / 30 20 70 30 Springer........................ 95 60 93 59 / 30 20 60 40 Las Vegas....................... 89 60 88 59 / 20 10 60 30 Clayton......................... 100 67 95 66 / 10 50 20 20 Roy............................. 94 64 91 63 / 10 20 50 50 Conchas......................... 102 69 100 68 / 5 10 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 98 68 97 66 / 5 10 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 105 73 101 70 / 0 10 40 50 Clovis.......................... 102 71 100 69 / 0 0 40 50 Portales........................ 102 72 103 68 / 0 5 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 101 72 101 69 / 0 5 40 50 Roswell......................... 104 74 105 73 / 0 0 10 30 Picacho......................... 97 69 98 69 / 5 0 20 30 Elk............................. 93 65 95 66 / 5 0 20 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234.