textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists today across far eastern NM.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms can not be ruled out on Tuesday across eastern NM.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

A backdoor cold front has pressed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain bringing gusty winds to KABQ and to a lesser extent KSAF. The moisture ushered in behind the front is expected to mix out later this morning west of the Central Mountain Chain, but there could be just enough remaining for a stray shower on Mount Taylor or the Jemez Mtns in the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, a dryline or pseudo- dryline should set up across eastern NM. Showers and thunderstorms are again forecast to develop along it and shift toward the east or southeast through early evening. The best forcing and shear remain across northeast NM, but MLCAPE values are a bit higher across east central and southeast NM. Confidence is greatest that there will be severe weather across the northeast as storms develop on and roll off the Raton Ridge, but can't rule out a stray severe storm or two with hail further south. Storms should largely end by 9 PM MDT, but a few garden variety showers and thunderstorms could linger through midnight.

Once again, outflow from the storms will aid in pushing the low level moisture westward Saturday night. Again, the moisture should push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain and bring breezy conditions to the Rio Grande Valley.

On Sunday, the upper level ridge that is developing across western NM today will strengthen and the ridge axis will become centered over NM. The low level moisture is expected to mix out moreso than today, but enough moisture will persist across far eastern NM for isolated to scattered showers and storms. However, with ridging over the area, shear will substantially decrease, thus the threat for severe storms is very low. Meanwhile, enough mid level moisture will be present for virga and/or sprinkles to develop across the high terrain of central and western NM. Large inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values between 800 and 1500 J/Kg will allow for gusty and erratic winds with any virga/sprinkle showers. Otherwise, given the rise in H5 heights, temperatures will rise. Temperatures up to 5 degrees warmer than today will be on tap for areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain, but highs will be up to 12 degrees warmer than today across the east.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Low level moisture will again slosh back to the west on Sunday night, but the focus will be on the approaching shortwave/weakly closed low. Through Monday, a weakly closed low will slide eastward across SoCal and western AZ. Ahead of the low, southerly flow will advect moisture into NM at all levels. In fact, forecast model soundings suggest most areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain will become moist adiabatic through the layer by late Monday afternoon. What this means is showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain Monday, but as the atmosphere moistens and stabilizes mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms will become fewer and good soaking rains will prevail. As the shortwave/weakly closed low inches east and northeast toward the Four Corners Monday night, the bulk of the precipitation will shift eastward as well. This should mean wetting rainfall for areas from the northern mountains, Rio Grande Valley and Central Mountain Chain. By 3am Tuesday, precipitation will be focused along and east of the Central Mountain Chain and any thunderstorms that were in this area Monday evening or overnight should become fewer as well. Models are indicating that a drop off in precipitation coverage will occur later Tuesday morning across eastern NM after the main vorticity lobe passes, but additional showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon as troughing remains to the west. Could see a few severe storms across east central and southeast NM if clouds break long enough for destabilization to occur, though shear is not terribly impressive.

A mid level dry slot will move into western and central NM on Wednesday and may push farther east over eastern NM on Thursday, but this would depend on the track of the next upper level low pressure system. Mixing will allow dewpoints to drop quickly on Wednesday. A few storms will remain possible on Wednesday across northeast NM, but chances could dwindle to near zero on Thursday if the dry slot pushes eastward. Large differences exist in model guidance regarding the aforementioned upper level low position on Friday, so confidence is low, but it looks like drier and locally breezy conditions will prevail.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms persist across far northeast NM late this evening. These storms will continue through approximately 08Z before diminishing or shifting into OK/TX. Otherwise, a backdoor cold front is sliding westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain at this hour. Gusts near 30 or 35kt will remain possible through 11Z at KABQ. An Airport Weather Warning may be needed. Lesser gusts are expected at KSAF. Low clouds have developed behind the front along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of NE NM already, and this area should expand through the overnight hours across most of northeast NM. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern NM on Saturday afternoon. A few storms may be severe with large hail and gusty winds, especially across northeast NM. Most showers and storms will diminish by 03Z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Low level moisture will continue to diurnally slosh across eastern NM through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be on tap again today, with lesser coverage on Sunday. Meanwhile, dry conditions will continue west of the Central Mountain Chain through Sunday. Lower elevation areas could see between 5 and 8 hours of single digit RH each day. Additionally, virga showers may bring gusty and erratic winds to western and central NM Sunday. Moisture will increase at all levels Monday into Tuesday as a storm system approaches and crosses the area. Widespread, much needed, wetting precipitation is expected. Drier and breezy conditions will return to at least western and central NM Wednesday, and perhaps all of NM on Thurs and Fri. Currently, winds are not projected to be strong enough to warrant critical conditions on these days, though that could trend upward. Wetting rainfall on Monday and Tuesday may also preclude critical conditions for the mid to late week period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 82 48 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 78 36 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 77 45 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 80 41 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 76 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 80 45 83 48 / 0 5 5 0 Quemado......................... 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 43 86 46 / 0 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 88 46 90 49 / 0 5 0 0 Chama........................... 72 36 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 75 52 79 56 / 20 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 77 45 81 47 / 10 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 44 77 47 / 5 5 0 0 Red River....................... 63 36 68 40 / 5 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 69 33 73 38 / 10 5 10 0 Taos............................ 77 40 81 45 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 73 42 77 47 / 20 5 20 0 Espanola........................ 82 47 87 51 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 77 51 81 54 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 48 84 52 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 85 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 53 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 56 89 58 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 51 90 54 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 55 90 57 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 50 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 55 91 58 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 51 90 54 / 0 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 57 85 59 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 55 90 58 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 53 82 56 / 10 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 79 52 83 55 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 80 48 84 52 / 10 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 44 86 47 / 10 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 47 81 50 / 10 5 10 0 Mountainair..................... 80 47 84 50 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 48 83 51 / 10 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 52 78 53 / 5 5 5 0 Capulin......................... 67 41 76 45 / 70 20 20 0 Raton........................... 72 42 81 45 / 60 10 20 0 Springer........................ 74 43 82 46 / 50 10 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 45 80 49 / 40 10 20 0 Clayton......................... 72 48 84 52 / 50 20 30 10 Roy............................. 73 46 82 50 / 30 20 20 0 Conchas......................... 81 50 90 54 / 20 20 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 49 86 52 / 20 20 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 82 53 92 56 / 20 20 5 10 Clovis.......................... 85 54 90 55 / 20 20 20 10 Portales........................ 86 53 90 55 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 85 52 91 54 / 10 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 89 56 93 59 / 10 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 83 52 87 53 / 20 5 5 0 Elk............................. 83 50 86 52 / 20 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.