textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 423 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

- A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers with mountain snow from Friday into Saturday. A few inches of snow are forecast above 8,500ft and there is a chance for difficult travel conditions in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next week, especially Tuesday, with potential for more precipitation across western and northern NM.

- There is a threat for the rapid spread of fire across eastern NM early next week, especially with stronger winds on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft in advance of a Pacific low, currently gathering offshore of SoCal, will bring increasing cloud cover through Thursday. A few light showers are possible across northwest and north central NM through tonight, but very little measurable precipitation is expected. Temperatures will persist above average areawide and even warm a couple of degrees on Thursday, especially across the eastern plains where highs will reach well above average. Pacific moisture advection will ramp-up again on Thursday night in advance of the approaching Pacific low, which is forecast to move over SoCal and the northern Baja Peninsula by early Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

The Pacific low is forecast to bring widespread showers to our area Friday through early Saturday and move directly over NM Friday night as a 560dam 500mb low. Forecast snow levels have trended up by 500ft or so relative to the previous forecast cycle, which is pushing advisory-level snow amounts higher up into the mountains. At this time, only the northern mountains are looking advisory worthy and mainly above 9kft. Given this trend, our confidence in difficult driving conditions for the northern mountains Fri/Sat has trended down with only the higher mountain passes (ex: Bobcat Pass) likely to be impacted. Most population centers will get rain, with low chances for graupel and even lower chances for thunder. Storm total rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.25-0.50", which represents a timely and much-needed wetting event for our area. Wrap-around precipitation will linger across northeast NM Saturday as the upper low pulls east across north TX. Stronger northerly winds will prevail across eastern NM on the backside of the ejecting low, but are forecast to remain below advisory threshold. An upper level ridge will follow quickly behind the departing upper low on Saturday, then shift east of NM by late Sunday and give way to increasing southwest flow aloft going into Monday. The result will be increasing winds with a warming trend that will bring temperatures back above average areawide by Sunday afternoon. Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail across eastern NM Sun/Mon afternoons, due in part to a deepening lee side trough. The jet stream will move onshore over SoCal on Monday and then continue on to NM Monday night into Tuesday, bringing orographic forcing for showers over the western and northern mountains and windy to very windy conditions areawide by Tuesday. Wind highlights will likely be required Tuesday, especially across eastern NM thanks to strong lee side troughing. Forecast confidence decreases significantly after Tuesday due to spread among the 12Z medium range model solutions, but we have moderate confidence that the jet stream will remain active across the region through the end of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 435 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Pacific moisture will continue to stream over northwest NM with light rain showers and low VFR cigs this evening and overnight. Otherwise, west to southwest winds with gusts between 20 and 30kt across east central NM will gradually diminish through 02Z Thu. Showers across northwest NM will diminish by sunrise Thu, but cloudiness will persist. Breezy conditions will redevelop across east central NM Thursday afternoon with gusts between 20 and 30kt, similar to today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through Sunday, but are increasingly likely early next week across eastern NM. Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring continued above average temperatures and mostly good ventilation through Thursday. Pacific moisture will trend up Thursday night in advance of a Pacific low, forecast to bring high humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation on Friday into early Saturday. Warming and drying are forecast Sun/Mon, with increasing winds across eastern NM due to lee side troughing. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday afternoon across eastern NM, with stronger westerly winds bringing near-critical to critical conditions on Tuesday. Lower forecast confidence for next Wednesday, but strong westerly winds and critical fire weather conditions may persist across the eastern plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 36 60 35 54 / 30 5 10 50 Dulce........................... 30 58 26 53 / 50 30 10 70 Cuba............................ 34 58 34 52 / 20 20 10 70 Gallup.......................... 26 60 26 49 / 10 0 10 70 El Morro........................ 33 58 33 49 / 10 5 10 80 Grants.......................... 28 63 28 52 / 10 5 10 70 Quemado......................... 33 60 34 50 / 0 0 5 80 Magdalena....................... 39 63 41 53 / 0 5 5 80 Datil........................... 34 59 35 48 / 0 5 5 80 Reserve......................... 31 66 33 52 / 0 0 10 90 Glenwood........................ 35 69 36 56 / 0 0 10 90 Chama........................... 29 51 26 47 / 40 30 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 37 57 38 49 / 20 10 10 70 Pecos........................... 33 60 35 53 / 10 5 10 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 56 33 49 / 10 10 5 60 Red River....................... 30 46 28 41 / 10 10 5 60 Angel Fire...................... 24 53 20 47 / 10 10 10 70 Taos............................ 30 59 27 53 / 10 10 5 60 Mora............................ 31 60 32 53 / 5 5 5 60 Espanola........................ 32 65 35 57 / 10 10 10 60 Santa Fe........................ 37 60 39 53 / 20 10 10 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 62 37 55 / 20 5 10 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 64 45 58 / 10 5 10 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 66 43 59 / 10 5 10 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 69 41 61 / 10 5 10 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 66 42 59 / 10 5 10 70 Belen........................... 37 68 38 60 / 5 5 10 70 Bernalillo...................... 40 67 42 60 / 10 5 10 70 Bosque Farms.................... 36 68 38 61 / 5 5 10 70 Corrales........................ 40 68 41 60 / 10 5 10 70 Los Lunas....................... 38 68 40 60 / 5 5 10 70 Placitas........................ 42 62 43 56 / 20 5 10 70 Rio Rancho...................... 40 67 42 59 / 10 5 10 70 Socorro......................... 41 70 43 62 / 0 0 5 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 59 40 53 / 10 5 10 80 Tijeras......................... 39 60 40 54 / 10 5 10 80 Edgewood........................ 36 63 37 56 / 10 0 10 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 65 32 58 / 5 0 10 60 Clines Corners.................. 34 61 36 52 / 0 0 5 60 Mountainair..................... 37 63 38 56 / 0 0 5 70 Gran Quivira.................... 37 63 38 58 / 0 0 5 70 Carrizozo....................... 40 66 43 60 / 0 0 5 80 Ruidoso......................... 40 62 42 56 / 0 0 5 70 Capulin......................... 32 61 30 52 / 0 5 5 40 Raton........................... 29 63 29 54 / 0 5 5 40 Springer........................ 29 66 29 56 / 0 0 0 40 Las Vegas....................... 34 64 33 54 / 0 0 0 50 Clayton......................... 42 68 35 56 / 0 0 0 30 Roy............................. 33 67 35 55 / 0 0 5 40 Conchas......................... 36 74 37 61 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Rosa...................... 35 71 39 59 / 0 0 5 50 Tucumcari....................... 38 75 38 63 / 0 0 5 40 Clovis.......................... 38 74 43 65 / 0 0 5 50 Portales........................ 36 74 42 66 / 0 0 5 60 Fort Sumner..................... 33 73 39 63 / 0 0 5 60 Roswell......................... 37 72 43 64 / 0 0 0 60 Picacho......................... 39 73 43 64 / 0 5 0 60 Elk............................. 36 73 40 64 / 0 0 0 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.