textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

- A few more record high temperatures are forecast today across east central and southeast New Mexico.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today across eastern New Mexico due to strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return on Thursday areawide.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 128 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Passing high clouds will continue overnight, but enough breaks in the clouds should allow for a peak at the blood moon early this morning. Otherwise, quiet and warm conditions will prevail.

Main change today is that forecast wind speeds have backed off a little for eastern NM. An upper level trough is still forecast to cross CO but the strongest mid level winds will cross the forecast area this morning and will decrease through the afternoon. Though this was always the case, mid level winds speeds look to diminish faster than what was previously expected. Therefore, despite well above normal mixing heights for early March, there just won't be as much momentum to mix to the surface. Nonetheless, breezy to locally windy conditions remain on tap for northeast and east central areas with max wind gusts around 35 mph. A cold front will also push from west to east across the area today, and high temperatures will be 3 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday across much of central and western NM, but downsloping will keep temps quite warm across eastern NM. A few record temperatures are forecast to be broken this afternoon, including Roswell and Portales.

A backdoor cold front will slide down the plains this evening and overnight. Can't rule out a few sprinkles or flurries from the Sangre de Cristo Mtns eastward, but no significant precipitation is expected. Additionally, gusty winds are expected behind the front for 1 to 3 hours. Patchy areas of blowing dust could locally reduce visibility. In the wake of the front, cooler temperatures are on tap for eastern NM on Wednesday. Though temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today across the east, all areas of NM will still be 5 to 12 degrees above normal. High temps will be in the 60s and 70s for most areas. With weak shortwave ridging on Wednesday as well, light winds will be the rule. Overall, it will be a great day across the Land of Enchantment.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 128 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

On Wednesday night and Thursday, the next storm system will dive across the Great Basin and weakly close into a low over UT. Ahead of this system, southwest winds will increase across NM. At H7, 30-40kt will be common Thursday, though forecast mixing heights are near 550mb where wind speeds are slightly higher. At the surface, a low will deepen to near 992-993mb across southeast CO. This is a good set up for windy conditions areawide with gusts up to 45 or 50 mph. The downslope component to the winds will aid in temperatures climbing several degrees across eastern NM with less change elsewhere. It should also be noted that Gulf moisture will advect into eastern NM on Thursday morning with southerly flow, but this moisture will largely mix out in the afternoon. That said, can't rule out a stray shower or storm initiating in NM before it moves into TX.

This system will lift northeastward across CO while additional energy dives southward on the backside of the system. This shortwave turned closed low will retrograde to the southwest on Friday and will likely be cut off from the flow on Saturday as the low takes up residence west of the Northern Baja. This low will move little through Sunday and might finally get a nudge eastward on Monday. While confidence is increasing on this bigger picture, there is still uncertainty in the details. As the initial system crosses CO, a front will slide across NM on Friday from west to east. Then, a backdoor front will slide through the plains and westward across NM late Friday into Saturday. This front once promised some light precipitation, but operational models seem quite bleak with regards to that. Greater confidence exists that temperatures will fall back to near normal for Friday and Saturday (and perhaps a few degrees below normal across western NM Friday). Warmer conditions on Sunday and by late day, low level moisture may start returning to southern portions of the area with southerly flow at the surface. With upper divergence aloft and moisture at lower levels, we could start to see some light showers across areas south of I-40 as early as Monday. That said, there is still considerable uncertainty with the timing and strength of the ejecting upper low next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with periods of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds through early Tuesday. Gusty west-southwest winds will pick up again on Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain on tap for this afternoon across eastern NM. However, wind speeds have trended downward slightly. The favored area for critical conditions is within a bounded region from Las Vegas, to Clines Corners, to Conchas, to Santa Rosa. In this area, at least 5 hours of critical conditions are expected. However, 1 to 3 hours of critical conditions are also expected across Quay and Curry counties. West winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected with RH falling to between 7 and 15 percent. The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning in its entirety. Tonight, a backdoor cold front will quickly switch winds around to the north and northeast across eastern NM with gusts between 20 to 35 mph for a few hours. Cooler temperatures and less wind will result in a quieter Wednesday, but critical fire weather conditions will return on Thursday. Southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be common areawide. A few hours of single digit humidity will be noted across portions of central and eastern NM, though nearly all areas will fall below 15 percent. ERC values are climbing areawide, but the highest ERCs exist from the Rio Grande Valley eastward, and this is where confidence is highest that high fire danger will exist and thus where a Fire Weather Watch will be issued in the future. That said, concern is growing for western NM as well. On Friday, breezy to windy conditions will again plague eastern NM and elevated to near critical conditions will return for the area with westerly winds and RH values below 12 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 38 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 30 60 22 61 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 36 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 29 64 22 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 62 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 67 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 36 66 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 71 37 67 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 37 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 72 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 77 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 54 24 55 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 42 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 40 62 30 62 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 59 30 58 / 0 0 10 0 Red River....................... 30 49 25 49 / 0 5 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 30 56 19 55 / 0 0 10 5 Taos............................ 34 63 25 62 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 39 64 28 62 / 0 0 10 0 Espanola........................ 40 70 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 67 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 70 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 73 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 76 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 73 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 40 77 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 73 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 76 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 45 75 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 41 76 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 68 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 45 73 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 46 81 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 64 36 62 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 42 66 37 65 / 0 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 41 68 33 66 / 0 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 69 29 67 / 0 0 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 65 31 62 / 0 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 42 69 33 66 / 0 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 70 34 67 / 0 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 48 74 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 69 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 65 26 61 / 0 10 10 0 Raton........................... 35 67 26 64 / 0 10 10 0 Springer........................ 35 70 28 67 / 0 5 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 41 67 29 63 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 44 72 34 64 / 0 5 10 0 Roy............................. 41 72 32 63 / 0 0 10 0 Conchas......................... 44 80 36 71 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 43 76 35 69 / 0 0 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 45 81 35 70 / 0 0 10 0 Clovis.......................... 47 83 39 69 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 45 84 37 70 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 41 82 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 88 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 80 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 78 37 70 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.