textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth through at least Tuesday.

- Dry storms and evaporating showers may produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts in central and northern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A troughing pattern persists across the Intermountain West, keeping sustained moderate southwest flow aloft over the region. The result will be continued gusty southwest winds and hot temperatures through Tuesday. Smoke from area wildfires may begin to impact western and northern portions of NM with reduced visibility and poor air quality, especially near and east of the Beehive Fire. The latest HRRR near-surface smoke forecast shows potential for smoke impacts toward Questa, Red River and Raton tonight through Tuesday morning, but staying north of Taos. Gulf moisture advection will come to the eastern NM through Tuesday, with increasing chances for isolated to scattered convection across the east central and southeast plains. A strong to severe storm can not be ruled out by Tuesday afternoon, when the NAM is modeling muCAPE of around 3,000 J/kg, LIs of -7C and 0-6km bulk shear of 25-30kts.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Southwest flow aloft will weaken some Wednesday as the troughing pattern across the Intermountain West begins to diminish. Gulf moisture advection will persist across eastern NM and result in improved chances for convection and a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, although modeled 0-6km bulk shear isn't checking the severe box. The jet stream is still forecast to retreat northward late week and through the weekend, allowing the Monsoon high a shot at getting established over the region. Forecast confidence is high that the pattern transition will happen by this weekend, bringing above average temperatures, but is lower on PWATs increasing sufficiently for productive rainfall. This is all fairly normal for early July, when the heat can help to draw moisture in the lower boundary layer into NM. In terms of hazards, the threat for burn scar flash flooding in/near Ruidoso returns this weekend, but it low at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Gusty west winds have developed late this morning across central and northeast NM, but winds will trend slightly weaker this afternoon as the 700 mb jet exits to the northeast. Breezy southwest to west winds of 10 to 20 knots will prevail in most areas this afternoon. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out in far SE NM, but dry conditions will continue elsewhere. An outflow boundary from storms off to the south will push a boundary into SE NM around 03Z, with this boundary pushing northward overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A LARGE FIRE GROWTH PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM...

A troughing pattern will persist across the Intermountain West through mid week, bringing continued dry southwest flow aloft over the region and more near-critical and critical fire weather conditions to portions of northern and western NM. Winds will be lighter today relative to the past couple of days, with only northeast NM forecast to hit critical threshold due to lee side troughing. Southwest winds aloft will increase some Tuesday, bringing back a larger area of critical conditions that will include western portions of the area. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will return to the east central and southeast plains, bringing higher humidity and chances for wetting storms Tue/Wed. Extremely dry conditions will persist across western NM Wednesday with many hours of single digit humidity, but winds may not reach critical threshold. Winds will trend down significantly by late week and into the weekend as the jet stream retreats northward and the Monsoon high becomes established.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 88 55 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 42 85 42 / 0 0 10 0 Cuba............................ 84 54 84 52 / 0 0 10 0 Gallup.......................... 84 48 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 83 51 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 87 51 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 85 53 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 87 61 86 59 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 83 56 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 49 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 93 54 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 44 78 43 / 0 0 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 61 84 59 / 0 0 10 20 Pecos........................... 84 56 85 53 / 0 0 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 53 82 52 / 0 0 5 20 Red River....................... 71 45 73 44 / 0 0 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 76 41 78 41 / 0 0 5 10 Taos............................ 83 50 85 49 / 0 0 5 10 Mora............................ 82 53 83 51 / 0 0 10 30 Espanola........................ 91 58 91 56 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 84 61 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 58 88 56 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 67 91 65 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 64 93 62 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 63 95 61 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 65 93 64 / 0 0 10 5 Belen........................... 96 62 95 61 / 0 5 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 65 94 63 / 0 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 94 61 94 59 / 0 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 95 65 95 63 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 95 62 94 61 / 0 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 90 66 90 63 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 93 65 93 63 / 0 0 10 10 Socorro......................... 98 67 97 65 / 0 0 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 86 58 / 0 0 10 5 Tijeras......................... 87 61 87 58 / 0 0 10 5 Edgewood........................ 88 58 88 55 / 0 0 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 56 90 52 / 0 0 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 85 58 84 54 / 0 0 10 30 Mountainair..................... 89 58 88 56 / 0 0 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 88 60 87 57 / 0 0 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 91 66 90 63 / 0 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 61 82 58 / 0 0 30 5 Capulin......................... 86 56 86 53 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 89 55 89 52 / 0 0 20 20 Springer........................ 90 55 90 54 / 0 0 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 85 56 86 53 / 0 0 20 20 Clayton......................... 95 65 95 62 / 0 0 20 5 Roy............................. 88 60 89 57 / 0 5 20 10 Conchas......................... 97 69 97 63 / 0 5 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 93 65 91 61 / 0 5 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 98 72 97 66 / 0 5 20 20 Clovis.......................... 96 69 94 65 / 10 10 40 20 Portales........................ 97 71 95 65 / 10 10 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 96 69 95 64 / 0 5 30 20 Roswell......................... 98 73 97 67 / 10 10 20 10 Picacho......................... 93 67 91 60 / 5 0 30 20 Elk............................. 91 64 89 58 / 5 5 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-105-109-123.