textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A small MCV developed northwest of ABQ late last evening and is currently tracking northward, but may make an eastward jog later this morning as it rounds the upper high. This feature should keep showers and thunderstorms going through much of the overnight period, though most CAMs suggest precipitation will end just prior to sunrise.

The 596 dam H5 high remains centered on NM today, but overall, models are not as bullish with thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Drier mid level air is getting wrapped into the high from the south and east. Additionally, subsidence may exist in the wake of the MCV. The cause for the reduction in storm coverage could be either reason or some combination of the two. However, PWATs remain around 1 inch and storm motions will remain slow, so heavy rain remains a threat with any storms that develop. Though a flash flood or two remains possible today, confidence is not high regarding where they may occur, so will not be issuing a Flood Watch for today. Additionally, a weak boundary located near the NM/CO border this afternoon may be a focus for a few strong or severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

High temperatures today will also trend downward and should remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria, though a few locations will be close, including ABQ. High temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal are still expected.

The upper high looks to drift east tonight before moseying back west on Thursday and strengthening to 597-598dam. Storm coverage should be similar to today. Storms will again favor the high terrain and portions of northeast NM where another boundary will exist. Any storm could produce heavy rainfall as there will be little change in PWAT or storm motion from today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The vort max from yesterday's MCV over AZ will continue to track around the upper high. It looks like it may merge with a weak shortwave tonight over UT and continue to round the high on Thursday, sparking thunderstorm activity across eastern CO on Thursday afternoon. Regardless of the cause of the thunderstorms, models have been consistent that an outflow boundary will push southward across northeast and east central NM Thursday night into Friday. By Friday afternoon, easterly upslope flow will allow storms to develop along the Central Mountain Chain. Meanwhile, the upper high will have shifted westward over northern AZ. This will allow storms to shift southeastward across the plains Friday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the primary threats. Additional storms should also develop across the Southwest Mountains on Friday, but drier air moving into northwest NM around the high should limit thunderstorm coverage there. The high remains over AZ on Saturday. Storms should still develop over the Central Mtn Chain and Southwest Mountains on Saturday, but storm motions will be more due north to south, which will keep storms near or over the mountains through the afternoon and evening. Though the Ruidoso area could see rain on Friday, Saturday looks to be the next day of significant concern for burn scar flash flooding in the Ruidoso area.

A downtrend in thunderstorm coverage remains forecast for Sunday as much drier air will filter in from the north around the weakening upper high. PWATs will finally dip below one inch. Storm coverage may trend up slightly for Monday, but PWATs will still be trending downward for most areas, perhaps as low as 0.75" at ABQ in the aftn. A couple of strong outflow boundaries moving into NM from both CO and AZ on Tuesday should help increase moisture and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon, mainly in and around the high terrain of New Mexico. Any direct impact to terminals are likely to bring about gusty winds in excess of 30kts and brief MVFR to IFR visibilities from heavy rain. Outflow winds are favored to bring about gusty conditions this afternoon through the central Rio Grande Valley, mainly between 22z and 02z. One or two storms may become strong to severe across northeast NM this afternoon and early evening, capable of strong winds and hail. Thunderstorm chances dwindle by 03z, with lingering showers persisting to 06z. Light winds are expected throughout the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week, though hot temperatures will persist. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through Saturday, first developing over the high terrain then moving to nearby lower elevations. Except, on Saturday, storms will struggle to move off the Central Mountain Chain due to southerly storm motion. Drier air will push into NM on Sunday and Monday, reducing storm coverage. Through Saturday, locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty and erratic winds can be expected with any thunderstorm. Lightning may start new fires in pockets of dry fuel.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 97 68 96 66 / 0 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 94 57 94 54 / 20 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 92 62 91 61 / 20 20 5 5 Gallup.......................... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 5 El Morro........................ 88 59 88 59 / 40 20 20 10 Grants.......................... 93 62 91 63 / 50 30 30 10 Quemado......................... 89 60 89 62 / 50 20 30 10 Magdalena....................... 91 66 91 68 / 20 10 30 20 Datil........................... 87 61 87 63 / 20 10 30 20 Reserve......................... 95 61 95 63 / 20 20 30 10 Glenwood........................ 100 66 100 68 / 5 20 10 10 Chama........................... 87 56 88 54 / 30 20 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 90 65 90 65 / 30 20 30 5 Pecos........................... 91 61 94 61 / 20 10 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 58 88 58 / 40 30 20 20 Red River....................... 78 50 80 50 / 60 40 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 83 48 84 46 / 40 20 10 10 Taos............................ 91 59 92 58 / 20 20 10 10 Mora............................ 88 57 89 57 / 60 20 20 10 Espanola........................ 97 66 97 64 / 30 20 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 91 65 93 65 / 5 10 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 64 95 64 / 5 5 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 99 70 98 71 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 70 98 69 / 0 5 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 67 100 69 / 0 10 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 70 98 71 / 0 10 0 5 Belen........................... 100 69 101 69 / 0 5 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 100 69 99 69 / 0 10 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 100 67 101 68 / 0 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 100 70 100 70 / 0 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 100 69 100 69 / 0 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 96 68 96 68 / 5 5 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 99 70 99 70 / 0 10 0 5 Socorro......................... 103 73 102 74 / 0 0 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 64 93 65 / 5 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 92 65 94 66 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 94 62 95 63 / 10 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 60 96 60 / 10 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 91 62 92 63 / 5 20 5 5 Mountainair..................... 95 62 95 63 / 10 10 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 94 64 94 64 / 5 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 97 69 98 69 / 10 10 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 89 62 89 63 / 10 10 20 10 Capulin......................... 88 58 91 58 / 60 50 60 50 Raton........................... 92 57 94 58 / 70 40 60 50 Springer........................ 95 59 96 59 / 50 50 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 91 59 93 60 / 30 20 20 20 Clayton......................... 97 68 99 67 / 20 40 40 40 Roy............................. 94 64 97 64 / 20 40 30 30 Conchas......................... 102 70 105 68 / 0 20 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 98 68 101 67 / 0 10 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 103 72 105 70 / 0 10 5 30 Clovis.......................... 102 70 102 69 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 102 71 103 71 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 101 72 103 71 / 0 0 5 10 Roswell......................... 103 73 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 68 98 68 / 0 0 5 5 Elk............................. 95 64 95 64 / 0 0 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.