textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms Tuesday and Wedesday will become more numerous late week. Small hail, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding may occur with stronger storms.

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

An exceptionally strong H5 600 dam high is centered over Minnesota this morning, placing easterly flow aloft over New Mexico. The dry mid-level airmass can be clearly seen on water vapor across eastern NM, with western NM entrenched within a sub-tropical moisture plume that is circulating around the dominant ridge. The dry air will continue to keep most of eastern NM dry today, with storms confined to areas along and west of the central mountain chain.

There is another high that is currently centered over Wyoming as well and a shortwave trough is currently rotating around it in the southern Rockies. This shortwave will be the main feature to watch today as it will be the focus of convection. Storms will initiate along the western slopes of the northern mountains and slowly move southwest during the afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be more unstable than the past couple of days as evidenced by LIs in the -3 to -5C range and MU CAPE generally 200 to 500 J/kg. Despite the shortwave, shear will still be lacking so organized convection remains unlikely. Nonetheless, convection should be more intense than the past couple of days, with stronger outflow wind gusts and heavier rainfall rates. Hi-res models are in good agreement that there will be an area of heavy rainfall along the SW slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains just northeast of Santa Fe, with 90th percentile rainfall amounts in the 1-3" range here.

A secondary (and slightly stronger) shortwave will follow in the steps of the Tuesday wave, except it will have more moisture to interact with as subtropical moisture continues to be advected northward into western NM. Numerous showers and storms are likely across western NM and inflow from the east should help to sustain a few training storms. The flash flood risk will trend higher as a result, but the overall concern level remains low given how dry soils are across much of the region. Most of this rainfall will be a welcomed sign for the parched landscape.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The active monsoon pattern will continue late week as subtropical moisture is pumped into western NM and an easterly wave makes its way across Texas. Coverage and intensity of storms could take a slightly dip on Thursday thanks to subsidence out ahead of an approaching easterly wave, but this could be counteracted by the increasingly moist airmass aloft. This easterly wave will move into New Mexico on Friday supporting widespread to numerous showers and storms. The extensive could coverage should limit instability and may decrease overall rainfall intensity, even if rainfall is efficient from a more moist vertical profile. Drier air will make its way in from the east on Friday as the wave exits to the west, but it will still be an active day with widespread showers and storms across the western half of the state.

The monsoon high will set up over the Four Corners this weekend, keeping the existing moisture around and recycling it. All ensemble system mean 500 mb height patterns are showing another easterly wave making its way into the desert southwest early next week, which would likely translate to another uptick in precip. chances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Very patchy MVFR cigs have developed along the east slopes of the central mtn chain and in the far southeast plains. These clouds will dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning. Scattered showers and storms will favor areas along and west of the central mtn chain today. Storms will develop over the mountains then move southwest at 5-10 kts into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Strong outflow wind gusts up to 40 kts will be a concern at all terminals along and west of the Rio Grande Valley between 18Z and 02Z, although a few storms could linger through 06Z in western NM.

There is a low chance (~10%) that patchy MVFR cigs develop in far SE NM early Wednesday morning. Other than that, VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7 days. Beneficial moisture is on tap this week with scattered storms Tuesday and Wednesday becoming widespread to numerous Thursday through the weekend. Rainfall chances will be highest over the western high terrain each day, with the lowest chances in the eastern plains. Temperatures will generally be slightly below seasonal normals all week, with temps rising back up to seasonal averages by the weekend. Localized wetting footprints mid-week will become larger later in the week as rain coverage increases and storms become more efficient.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 65 94 63 / 30 20 40 70 Dulce........................... 92 50 88 48 / 40 40 70 80 Cuba............................ 87 57 84 55 / 40 40 60 50 Gallup.......................... 90 56 88 53 / 60 40 60 80 El Morro........................ 85 56 83 54 / 60 40 80 70 Grants.......................... 89 58 87 55 / 40 40 60 70 Quemado......................... 87 58 84 56 / 40 40 80 80 Magdalena....................... 85 64 83 61 / 10 10 50 40 Datil........................... 83 59 80 57 / 30 20 70 60 Reserve......................... 91 55 86 54 / 30 40 80 50 Glenwood........................ 93 57 89 55 / 50 40 80 50 Chama........................... 85 48 80 47 / 40 40 70 80 Los Alamos...................... 86 62 81 61 / 40 10 60 50 Pecos........................... 83 54 79 53 / 70 20 80 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 54 80 53 / 60 30 60 50 Red River....................... 74 46 71 45 / 60 20 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 78 40 74 39 / 60 20 70 40 Taos............................ 86 51 82 50 / 50 30 60 50 Mora............................ 80 51 76 50 / 70 20 80 30 Espanola........................ 92 61 89 59 / 40 20 50 40 Santa Fe........................ 85 61 81 59 / 60 10 70 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 59 84 57 / 50 10 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 67 89 65 / 30 10 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 64 89 62 / 20 10 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 64 92 62 / 20 10 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 67 91 65 / 20 20 40 40 Belen........................... 93 64 91 61 / 20 10 40 40 Bernalillo...................... 93 65 91 64 / 30 20 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 92 61 91 59 / 20 10 50 40 Corrales........................ 94 66 92 64 / 20 20 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 92 63 91 61 / 20 10 40 40 Placitas........................ 90 66 87 64 / 30 20 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 93 66 91 64 / 20 20 40 40 Socorro......................... 95 70 93 67 / 0 10 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 60 83 59 / 40 10 60 40 Tijeras......................... 87 60 84 59 / 40 10 60 40 Edgewood........................ 87 56 84 55 / 40 10 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 53 85 51 / 30 10 50 20 Clines Corners.................. 83 55 80 54 / 20 10 60 10 Mountainair..................... 87 57 84 55 / 20 10 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 85 58 82 56 / 10 10 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 88 62 86 61 / 5 5 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 79 55 78 54 / 5 5 50 10 Capulin......................... 80 53 78 52 / 20 20 20 5 Raton........................... 85 53 82 53 / 30 20 20 5 Springer........................ 86 55 83 54 / 20 20 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 82 55 78 54 / 40 20 70 20 Clayton......................... 87 60 86 60 / 10 5 10 0 Roy............................. 83 59 81 57 / 10 10 20 5 Conchas......................... 91 63 89 62 / 10 5 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 86 61 84 60 / 5 5 30 5 Tucumcari....................... 91 63 90 62 / 10 5 10 5 Clovis.......................... 90 61 88 61 / 10 0 10 5 Portales........................ 91 62 89 61 / 10 0 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 90 63 89 62 / 10 0 20 5 Roswell......................... 92 66 90 64 / 0 5 20 5 Picacho......................... 86 60 85 58 / 0 10 20 5 Elk............................. 84 56 83 54 / 5 10 30 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.