textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Dangerous flash flood and river flood risk arrives Tuesday through Wednesday alongside an impressive surge of monsoonal moisture bringing widespread heavy rain.

- The monsoon surge continues at a less intense pace Thursday and Friday when locally heavy rainfall continues to be a threat with rainfall amounts trending downward each day.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The westerlies have steered much drier air over the region per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and this is reflected in a much lower PWAT of 0.59" on the 18Z KABQ upper air sounding. This relatively dry atmosphere is forecast to persist into Monday, providing a two day break before the next Monsoon moisture surge on Tuesday. However, a few storms may spark across far eastern NM Monday afternoon/evening along and immediately behind a backdoor front, forecast to make westward progress into central NM Monday night. The front will create a gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Monday night, but the latest guidance has backed off the speeds some compared to yesterday's 12Z modeling. We're still looking at speeds below advisory criteria in eastern Albuquerque below Tijeras Canyon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Moisture advection will ramp up significantly Tuesday into Wednesday, partially attributable to moisture transport behind the backdoor front and mostly because of an impressive Monsoon moisture plume that is forecast to stand up over the region. The squeeze play between an approaching Pacific low and the upper high along the TX coast will play out Tue/Wed in a very wet scenario, with continuation into Thu/Fri across eastern NM. PWATs are forecast to rise up and challenge calendar day records Tue/Wed and then settle back down to between the 90th percentile and calendar day records Thu/Fri. WPC has included much of our area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday and will likely see an upgrade for Wednesday to a moderate risk for east central and south central portions of NM. Deeper convection with higher rainfall rates are likely Tuesday on the front end of the moisture advection due to greater instability, especially across western NM. Widespread showers with embedded thunder are forecast late Tuesday night through Wednesday, so rainfall rates will likely retreat due to much less instability with a rain- cooled lower boundary layer. The high temperature forecast for our area on Wednesday continues to trend down and we're lagging the GFS MOS, which currently shows a high of 64 degrees at the Albuquerque Sunport. The Pacific low is forecast to open up and pull northeast away from the region around the upper high circulation late Wednesday into Thursday, reorienting the Monsoon moisture plume to more over eastern NM where a continued heavy rainfall and flood threat will reside. River flooding is possible Wed/Thu, but more likely Thursday across eastern NM as two days worth of rainfall runoff gradually makes it's way into the main stems. PWATs will trend down Friday through the weekend as the upper high over TX ridges westward across northern MX and shuts our moisture tap off. Residual moisture will be sufficient for more limited daily rounds of convection Friday through Sunday, while temperatures trend back up closer to average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A gusty and moist backdoor front entering northeast NM will spread low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions to the area around Capulin, Clayton, Roy, and Tucumcari for the remainder of tonight. The front will bank up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mountains by mid morning Monday. The low clouds will gradually diminish and retreat toward the east on Monday morning, but probably won't clear Clayton until mid afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the remainder of tonight over from Capulin to Clayton as well. The chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday will shift from over northeast areas during the morning to over the far east central and southeast plains during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage along and east of the central mountain chain Monday night, and may spread as far west as the Jemez Mountains. Also Monday night, east wind gusts from 25-40 KT are forecast below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys from Santa Fe southward, including Albuquerque and Carrizozo.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as an active late Monsoon pattern persists. Notable drying of the atmosphere today into Monday, but moisture advection will ramp up beginning Monday night and continue into Wednesday as another monsoon moisture plume stands up over the region. The result will be high humidity and soaking rainfall during the Tuesday through Thursday period, with potential for flash flooding both on and off area burn scars. PWATs will trend down late in the week through the weekend and be associated with a gradual downtrend in humidity and daily rounds of wetting storms. Winds will generally be light through the period, except for gusty and erratic winds associated with showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 78 55 77 / 0 0 5 50 Dulce........................... 37 77 40 74 / 0 0 5 70 Cuba............................ 47 74 50 71 / 0 0 0 60 Gallup.......................... 45 74 48 73 / 0 0 0 70 El Morro........................ 45 72 49 70 / 0 0 5 80 Grants.......................... 47 76 51 73 / 0 0 5 70 Quemado......................... 49 75 52 72 / 0 0 5 70 Magdalena....................... 53 76 57 72 / 0 0 0 70 Datil........................... 50 72 53 69 / 0 0 5 80 Reserve......................... 50 81 52 76 / 0 0 5 60 Glenwood........................ 57 88 59 82 / 0 0 5 60 Chama........................... 40 70 45 67 / 0 0 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 52 74 55 70 / 0 0 20 70 Pecos........................... 48 77 52 69 / 0 5 30 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 74 48 71 / 0 0 0 60 Red River....................... 38 65 40 62 / 0 0 5 60 Angel Fire...................... 32 71 34 67 / 0 5 20 80 Taos............................ 42 76 45 73 / 0 0 0 60 Mora............................ 46 74 49 67 / 0 10 50 70 Espanola........................ 49 82 53 78 / 0 0 10 60 Santa Fe........................ 52 76 55 72 / 0 0 10 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 78 55 74 / 0 0 10 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 82 60 78 / 0 0 10 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 81 58 78 / 0 0 5 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 83 58 79 / 0 0 5 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 81 59 78 / 0 0 0 70 Belen........................... 53 82 57 79 / 0 0 5 60 Bernalillo...................... 54 83 59 79 / 0 0 5 70 Bosque Farms.................... 52 83 55 79 / 0 0 5 70 Corrales........................ 54 83 58 79 / 0 0 5 70 Los Lunas....................... 54 83 57 79 / 0 0 0 60 Placitas........................ 55 80 58 76 / 0 0 10 80 Rio Rancho...................... 54 82 59 78 / 0 0 5 70 Socorro......................... 59 86 61 81 / 0 0 0 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 76 54 72 / 0 0 20 80 Tijeras......................... 55 77 56 73 / 0 0 20 80 Edgewood........................ 50 79 53 73 / 0 0 20 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 81 51 74 / 0 0 20 80 Clines Corners.................. 51 75 52 68 / 0 0 30 80 Mountainair..................... 51 78 52 73 / 0 0 20 80 Gran Quivira.................... 51 77 54 73 / 0 0 20 80 Carrizozo....................... 59 84 59 77 / 0 0 10 70 Ruidoso......................... 53 77 53 69 / 0 0 20 80 Capulin......................... 51 70 51 69 / 30 20 30 40 Raton........................... 49 77 51 73 / 10 10 50 50 Springer........................ 49 79 52 74 / 5 10 40 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 75 52 67 / 0 5 50 80 Clayton......................... 57 72 55 73 / 20 30 30 30 Roy............................. 55 74 54 70 / 5 10 50 50 Conchas......................... 60 83 60 77 / 0 10 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 57 82 60 74 / 0 10 50 60 Tucumcari....................... 60 81 59 77 / 0 10 30 50 Clovis.......................... 60 88 59 77 / 0 30 30 50 Portales........................ 61 89 60 78 / 0 20 30 50 Fort Sumner..................... 58 88 61 78 / 0 5 40 60 Roswell......................... 61 92 63 82 / 0 0 30 60 Picacho......................... 58 86 58 76 / 0 0 30 70 Elk............................. 56 85 56 75 / 0 0 30 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.