textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026 - Rapid fire spread will be possible Saturday afternoon from incredibly dry conditions and strengthening westerly winds thru the northwestern quadrant of NM.

- Thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain today. There is a moderate risk of heavy rainfall on recent burn scars near Ruidoso.

- A moderate heat risk remains for lower elevation areas of western and central NM today, and all lower elevation locales this weekend where highs will flirt with 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Abundant debris clouds from yesterday's convective activity will continue to clear across the forecast area early this morning. Otherwise, a two-faced setup of moisture remains over the Land Enchantment, drier west and humid east. Low clouds across eastern NM with perhaps even some patchy fog over the central highlands will try to develop this morning with success highly dependent on clearing mid to upper level cloud cover. Today will see a ridge of high pressure slide its axis over northern NM with increasing shear along and east of the CO Rockies. Afternoon thunderstorm activity moving southeast off the Sangre de Cristo's will have the opportunity to tap into the better shear, and there is a marginal risk of severe storms clipping northeastern NM accounting for this. Weaker steering flow and shear further south will allow for shorter lived and slower storms, notably over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso. There is a moderate risk for a storm threatening heavy rain within 5-miles of the Ruidoso area burn scars as a result. Otherwise, a few isolated virga showers will threaten gusty and erratic winds up and down the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon.

Saturday sees the ridge flatten with drier westerly winds advancing the dryline eastward toward the TX line. High temperatures climb back to the 90s, flirting with 100F again in Roswell. Very dry conditions highlighted by 6-12 hours of single-digit humidity will be present across western NM and into portions of the Rio Grande Valley (see Fire Weather Discussion). Staying hydrated and having the ability to cool will be important for those outdoor activities this weekend. Regarding thunderstorm potential, there will only be an isolated opportunity for an updraft to develop along the dryline over far eastern NM Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Sunday begins the long term period with even drier conditions areawide and warmer high temperatures thru eastern NM as the aforementioned drier westerlies continue their advance eastward into the TX Panhandle. More widespread low 100s will be present thru eastern NM and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, nearly all areas will see single-digit humidity with the longest durations of 12 to 20 hours worth!

A cold front banked up thru the eastern plains of CO surges southward Sunday night thru Monday morning, perhaps bringing gusty east canyon winds to Santa Fe and Albuquerque to start the Monday morning commute. High temperatures thru eastern NM fall 10F to 15F back into the 80s and 90s alongside a significant influx of low level moisture. The two-faced setup of dry west and moist east will be the main story across the Land of Enchantment next week. Afternoon thunderstorms will favor development each day along the central mountain chain, pushing eastward over eastern NM as the season's first rendition of the monsoon high builds over southern AZ. Storms moving eastward off the Sangre de Cristo's will again have the best chance to become severe thanks to higher shear values there, with slower storm motions further south. High temperatures in the 90s to low 100s will favor lower elevation areas across western NM to start the week, spreading across eastern NM by mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few breezy west to southwest winds are expected to pick up here through the afternoon hours, with the exception of south to southeast winds across eastern NM. A few thunderstorms are forecast to develop off of the central mountain chain after 18z today, which will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds up to 40kts in and around them. Some storm development is expected across the Jemez Mountains as well near KLAM, which is forecast to drift off towards KSAF, producing another batch of outflow winds. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should drift off into eastern NM through the evening, dissipating by 03z. A few leftover outflow winds are forecast to push through the central mountain chain later this evening, affecting KABQ and possibly KAEG. Elsewhere, light winds remain overnight and are not expected to strengthen again until near the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Western NM: Dry and hot conditions remain for areas along and west of the central mountain chain thru the next 7 days. Portions of the Rio Grande Valley will see some brief relief in the form of increased humidity this morning and Tuesday morning when moisture across eastern NM advances thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. Westerly winds will be the limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions each day, with the exception of Saturday as westerlies strengthen. Saturday RFTI's are currently forecast to reach 4 to 6 alongside very dry fuels highlighted by ERCs reaching or surpassing the 90th or even 97th percentile. Deep layer mixing reaching upwards of 12k-15k ft will also be a concern for ongoing fires. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued from west- central to northwestern to north-central NM due to 6 to 12 hours of single-digit humidity alongside westerly winds of 15-22mph Saturday afternoon. Sunday sees even drier conditions with 12 to 20 hours of single-digit humidity, but alongside weaker westerlies.

Eastern NM: Scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity will again favors areas along and the east slopes of the central mountain chain today. Drier westerlies advance into the highlands today, and to the TX border this weekend when highs again climb back into the 90s and low 100s. Elevated to short-lived critical fire weather will reach the northeastern highlands just east of the Sangre de Cristo's Saturday afternoon. Single-digit humidity invades eastern NM Sunday, but with modest westerly wind speeds. Cooler temperatures and high humidity returns behind another cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Daily afternoon thunderstorm activity Monday will focus over areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's, expanding further south each afternoon Tuesday and beyond. A brief dip in high temperatures Monday will warm back up thereafter as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 63 94 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 93 49 89 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 91 59 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 91 51 89 46 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 88 54 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 92 55 92 48 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 53 90 49 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 89 63 92 58 / 10 5 0 0 Datil........................... 86 57 88 52 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 93 49 93 50 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 97 54 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 86 49 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 65 89 58 / 20 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 57 89 55 / 20 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 57 86 50 / 10 5 0 0 Red River....................... 79 47 78 44 / 20 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 82 45 82 43 / 20 10 0 0 Taos............................ 89 54 90 49 / 5 5 0 0 Mora............................ 86 53 88 51 / 40 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 95 63 97 55 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 90 64 90 57 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 61 93 55 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 71 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 68 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 67 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 69 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 99 65 101 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 99 69 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 65 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 100 69 99 63 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 66 100 63 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 95 69 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 99 69 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 100 69 102 65 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 63 91 58 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 92 63 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 93 61 93 57 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 58 94 55 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 89 57 90 57 / 20 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 93 60 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 60 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 93 65 95 66 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 85 60 87 62 / 50 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 82 52 89 54 / 50 20 10 0 Raton........................... 85 52 94 52 / 40 20 5 0 Springer........................ 87 53 95 52 / 30 30 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 86 55 91 54 / 40 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 82 60 94 63 / 5 20 10 0 Roy............................. 81 57 93 57 / 20 30 10 0 Conchas......................... 89 62 101 64 / 10 30 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 86 61 97 65 / 20 30 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 86 64 100 68 / 0 30 10 0 Clovis.......................... 85 64 97 67 / 0 20 10 5 Portales........................ 86 64 99 68 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 90 65 98 67 / 5 30 10 0 Roswell......................... 95 68 101 67 / 0 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 91 62 96 66 / 40 10 10 0 Elk............................. 90 59 94 63 / 60 10 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ101-105-120-121.