textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1021 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The Monsoon high remains firmly over NM today, as denoted by the 596dm 500mb heights on the 18z ABQ sounding. This is a 1dm decrease from yesterday, which was modeled well. As such, temperatures across the forecast area look to be just few degrees below what was observed yesterday. Several lower elevation locations will still get into the high 90s to low 100s, and there will still be moderate to major Heat Risk for those locations given this elongated stretch of hot temperatures. While no Heat Advisories are in effect today given temperatures are just below thresholds, folks should still be mindful of the heat when outdoors.

Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected today, beginning over the high terrain. The 18z ABQ sounding had a PWAT of 1.01", which is still plenty moist enough for monsoon thunderstorms to form. The interesting thing on the sounding are the evident inversions between 750-645mb (SBCIN value of -138 J/kg). This is likely the cause of the stunted growth of cumulus clouds across the state so far this early afternoon. Storms are still expected to get going throughout the afternoon, however, as the convective temperature of the sounding is 94F. Most showers and storms will develop off the high terrain, mainly along the central and western mountains. The greater area of focus are the storms likely to form and move off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Given a more favorable westerly storm motion, along with south to southeast surface, it is not out of the question to see a strong to severe storm to develop. Bulk shear is marginal (~25-30kts), but can be enough to sustain an updraft or two. In addition, the atmosphere remains moist (SPC mesoanalysis PWATs above 1"), so any slow moving or repeated rounds of storms may cause localized flash flooding. Elsewhere, coverage of thunderstorms is likely to be less than yesterday, but several areas have become saturated/sensitive, so any slow moving storm moving over those areas has a good chance to produce flooding impacts. Showers and storms this evening are likely to fizzle out through the nighttime hours.

Thursday shapes up to act as a very similar copy to today, with scattered thunderstorms across the high terrain early afternoon, pushing off to the adjacent highlands and lowlands through the afternoon and evening. The high pressure over us looks to strengthen a decameter or two, increasing the temperatures over our area by a degree or two. Locations in eastern NM are very closely flirting with Heat Advisory criteria, but given it appears very localized at the moment, will push to future shifts about potential heat highlights. A similar setup of storms is likely across the northeast, though coverage is likely to be a touch higher, and once again cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms. SPC has placed a Marginal (1/5) Risk of severe storms across far northeast NM, and this is in line with our thinking of the slightly higher coverage of storms compared to today.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Friday starts a more active few days of storms across the area. Remnant outflow boundaries are likely to be in place across eastern NM, and the high pressure looks to be shoved to the west by an approaching trough across the central Great Plains. As such, with return flow across eastern NM throughout the day, upslope flow in conjuncture with northwest to north upper level flow sets the stage for numerous storms along the central mountain chain. Given the forecast increase of bulk shear values, there is higher confidence that a few severe storms will be observed across northeast and east central NM. Additionally, with the potential for repeated rounds of storms by either training or redevelopment, there is concern for flash flooding as well. For the most part, many eastern NM locations have not seen much rainfall over the past several weeks, so this rainfall is sure to be welcomed. However, cannot rule out "too much of a good thing" rainfall occurring in some of these dry locations. On top of this, the more north-south storm motion sets up a higher risk of burn scar flash flooding over the Ruidoso area. One last item for Friday: clusters of storms are likely to produce an outflow boundary surging westward towards the central mountain chain, and looks increasingly likely to generate a gusty east canyon wind for the ABQ and Santa Fe metro area, as well as areas down the Rio Grande Valley.

Saturday sets up similarly to Friday, though the high pressure continues to push westward. Depending on how far west that goes, it will dictate what parts of the state would see the highest storm coverage. Currently, the most likely scenario is another round of numerous storms developing over the central mountain chain pushing southward. Forecast bulk shear values are sufficient enough for a few storms to turn strong to severe once again. Given this moisture is most likely to be channeled along the central mountain chain, this looks like another elevated risk day for flash flooding across the Ruidoso area burn scars. Conditional flooding threats may also develop elsewhere, but would depend on the rainfall observed on Friday.

The high looks to rebound back towards NM on Sunday, orienting the flow over the state in a more northeast-southwest direction. This likely heavily limits the storm coverage across the area to only a few scattered storms across the high terrain. Storm chances look to gradually rebound through next week as the high is favored to break down a bit and for moisture to begin wrapping around. Hotter temperatures also look to favor central and western NM, where the lower storm coverage and higher pressure heights are forecast to be.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for short-lived MVFR conditions in iso/sct showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds will generally be light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are forecast over the next several days. Daily thunderstorm chances continue across the high terrain through the forecast area, with there being low chances of a few strong to severe storms over northeast areas today and tomorrow afternoon. Storm coverage continues to increase going into Friday and Saturday, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain (though could spread more westward on Saturday). All storms will have the capability to produce frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. ERCs across eastern NM are currently at or above the 97th percentile, so rainfall of any kind will be welcomed there. There is a chance for isolated elevated fire weather conditions this weekend across far northwest NM given humidity in the low teens and a forecast lack of precipitation. Winds will be a big limiting factor in the conditions becoming more widespread. Near to above average high temperatures continue statewide for the foreseeable future.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 96 66 99 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 56 93 55 95 / 10 10 5 5 Cuba............................ 60 92 61 93 / 20 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 60 92 61 95 / 20 30 5 10 El Morro........................ 58 87 60 90 / 20 30 10 20 Grants.......................... 60 92 62 94 / 30 40 20 10 Quemado......................... 60 89 61 92 / 20 40 20 10 Magdalena....................... 65 91 67 92 / 10 30 20 20 Datil........................... 60 88 61 89 / 20 30 30 30 Reserve......................... 60 94 62 96 / 20 30 20 50 Glenwood........................ 65 99 68 100 / 20 10 20 50 Chama........................... 55 86 54 87 / 10 10 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 89 65 89 / 20 20 10 30 Pecos........................... 60 95 62 90 / 10 10 10 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 88 57 85 / 40 20 20 50 Red River....................... 49 81 49 78 / 30 20 20 70 Angel Fire...................... 44 84 44 81 / 10 20 20 80 Taos............................ 58 92 58 89 / 20 20 20 40 Mora............................ 56 89 58 84 / 10 20 20 80 Espanola........................ 62 97 64 97 / 20 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 64 93 65 92 / 10 10 10 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 96 64 95 / 10 10 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 97 71 97 / 10 0 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 99 73 98 / 10 0 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 101 66 100 / 10 0 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 99 72 99 / 10 5 10 10 Belen........................... 68 101 72 101 / 10 0 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 68 100 70 99 / 10 0 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 65 101 68 100 / 10 0 10 10 Corrales........................ 68 101 71 100 / 10 0 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 67 101 70 100 / 10 0 10 10 Placitas........................ 67 96 69 96 / 10 0 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 69 99 71 99 / 10 5 10 10 Socorro......................... 72 102 74 102 / 10 10 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 93 66 91 / 10 0 10 30 Tijeras......................... 64 94 67 93 / 10 0 10 30 Edgewood........................ 61 94 64 92 / 10 5 10 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 96 62 94 / 10 10 10 60 Clines Corners.................. 62 93 64 90 / 10 10 10 70 Mountainair..................... 62 95 65 94 / 10 5 10 40 Gran Quivira.................... 63 94 65 93 / 5 10 10 40 Carrizozo....................... 68 98 70 98 / 10 20 10 50 Ruidoso......................... 60 90 62 90 / 10 40 20 70 Capulin......................... 58 90 59 84 / 40 50 40 80 Raton........................... 57 95 59 89 / 40 50 40 90 Springer........................ 58 97 60 91 / 30 30 30 80 Las Vegas....................... 59 94 61 87 / 10 20 20 80 Clayton......................... 67 99 67 92 / 40 50 60 40 Roy............................. 64 97 65 90 / 40 20 30 80 Conchas......................... 69 105 70 98 / 20 10 20 80 Santa Rosa...................... 67 101 68 96 / 10 10 20 60 Tucumcari....................... 72 105 72 99 / 20 5 30 40 Clovis.......................... 69 101 70 99 / 0 5 10 40 Portales........................ 70 102 72 101 / 0 0 5 40 Fort Sumner..................... 71 103 72 100 / 5 5 10 40 Roswell......................... 72 103 75 104 / 0 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 67 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 40 Elk............................. 64 93 66 94 / 5 20 20 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.