textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 513 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain each afternoon through Thursday may produce erratic wind gusts with localized moderate rainfall amounts.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

- Light precipitation will expand across western and central New Mexico over the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The weak upper low turned trough continues to shift slowly southeastward today. The trough axis is located from roughly KGUP to KROW this afternoon. Forcing remains quite weak with this feature, but it is still expected that isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the northern and western high terrain. Storms north of the trough axis will tend to move toward the northwest, while storms south of the trough axis will tend to move toward the southeast. Much like yesterday, most areas will struggle to pick up a tenth of an inch, but a lucky few could see a few tenths to near one half inch of rainfall. These storms may also produce brief but gusty winds up to 35 mph. Otherwise, near to above normal temperatures will be the rule with light winds. Storms will taper off this evening with quiet conditions expected overnight.

The upper level trough will shift farther south on Thursday, with a west-to-east trough axis near the southern border of NM. Thus, any weak forcing from this feature will be focused across the southwest and south central mountains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor this area, though can't completely rule out a stray shower or storm across the northern mountains. Rainfall amounts will be similar to today. High temperatures may inch downward a few degrees, but still near or above normal for early October. Storms will diminish during the evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Can't rule out a few showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm across western NM on Friday as southwest flow, and arguably a very weak shortwave, crosses the northwest half of the state. A deepening lee side trough should increase south to southwest winds over northeast NM with gusts around 30-35 mph. Overall though, should be a pretty quiet day with temperatures within a degree or two of Thursday's readings.

Models continue to indicate that Hurricane Rachel will be sheared apart and absorbed into a Pacific low west of the Baja Peninsula Saturday. That low, and the moisture remnants of Rachel, look to swing into SoCal and SW AZ Sunday while an upper low over the PacNW digs southward over the west coast. Thus, Rachel's moisture remnants look to stay west of NM. Nonetheless, southwest flow over NM will gradually advect some moisture into western and portions of central NM over the weekend. PWATs will trend upward to around 0.7 to 0.9 inches. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon and persist through Sunday night. Though some areas could certainly pick up an inch or so of rainfall through this period, these heavier amounts should be spotty.

Tropical Depression Twenty-E has developed south of Mexico today. This system is forecast to slowly shift northwest and north over the next few days, then the big question remains on where it will go early next week. There is still large discrepancies between operational models, AI models and ensemble outputs. Both the operational GFS and EC continue to bring the tropical system northward with moisture from the system shifting into NM Monday night with rain continuing through at least Tuesday. Ensemble models continue to show little, if any, increase in PWATs during the period, which suggests the remnants will be diverted to the southeast. The AI models are closer to this solution as well as they keep much drier conditions over NM. It should also be noted that the aforementioned Pacific low digging down the coast will also begin to shift east-northeastward during the Monday night thru Wed timeframe. This will not only have an effect on where the tropical remnants go, but the low itself should bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to NM as it crosses the Four Corners Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with low probabilities of MVFR conditions at KROW Thursday morning. Short-lived VFR cigs and gusty winds are possible with showers moving in the vicinity of KGUP and KFMN early this evening. Otherwise, winds will be light through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7 days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain on tap for the northern and western high terrain this afternoon, before focusing further south on Thursday. A few showers or a stray thunderstorm are not out of the question on Friday for western NM either. Also on Friday, south to southwest winds will increase over NE NM in response to a deepening lee side trough. Gusts between 30-35 mph are likely. Thereafter, southwest flow will increase moisture across NM, setting up showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and portions of central NM through the weekend. Breezy conditions will persist across the northeast, thought may spread to most other areas on Sunday. Thereafter, all eyes on are where the remnants of a tropical system go early next week. If the moisture shifts right over NM, widespread rain will be in store once again, but the system may stay to the southeast, resulting in more scattered precipitation. Forecast confidence is low starting Monday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 80 50 79 / 10 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 42 77 41 75 / 20 5 0 5 Cuba............................ 46 73 46 72 / 10 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 41 77 41 76 / 10 5 0 10 El Morro........................ 43 72 44 72 / 10 5 0 10 Grants.......................... 42 75 41 75 / 5 5 0 10 Quemado......................... 44 74 45 73 / 10 5 0 10 Magdalena....................... 49 72 49 71 / 5 5 0 5 Datil........................... 44 70 45 69 / 5 5 0 5 Reserve......................... 46 79 46 77 / 20 20 0 10 Glenwood........................ 51 83 52 83 / 20 30 0 5 Chama........................... 42 70 42 67 / 20 10 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 52 71 50 70 / 5 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 46 73 45 72 / 5 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 71 44 69 / 10 5 0 5 Red River....................... 36 64 34 62 / 10 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 27 69 25 67 / 10 5 0 10 Taos............................ 40 75 39 72 / 5 5 0 0 Mora............................ 43 71 42 71 / 5 5 0 10 Espanola........................ 49 77 48 77 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 73 48 71 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 76 46 74 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 78 53 78 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 79 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 49 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 77 52 76 / 5 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 53 80 53 80 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 73 49 71 / 5 5 0 5 Tijeras......................... 51 75 51 73 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 49 74 48 74 / 0 5 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 76 43 75 / 0 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 48 73 48 72 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 72 48 71 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 76 54 75 / 5 10 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 49 69 48 68 / 5 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 46 74 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 43 78 43 76 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 41 78 41 77 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 44 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 52 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 53 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 53 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 75 50 76 / 5 10 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.