textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Widespread record high temperatures in the 80s/90s on tap into the weekend. Heat-related illness for those extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling and/or hydration. The greatest threat appears to favor Saturday in east-central and southeast NM.

- A backdoor cold front will plunge through eastern NM Sunday, lowering high temperatures. Gusty east canyon winds likely to push through the central mountain chain Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 102 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Northerly flow dominates the region today as the unseasonably strong, possibly historical ridge entrenches itself over southern NV and CA this afternoon. For reference, the Las Vegas, NV 12z sounding this morning had a 500mb height of 593dm, which appears to be the highest 500mb height ever for the month of March (and April) on their sounding climatology record. 593dm would also be a 90th percentile height for August, normally their hottest time period. All of this is to say that the nearly unheard of early season heat is fast approaching NM. For today, we are spared from the abnormal heat for one more afternoon as high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 80s for lower elevations and mid to high 70s for the higher terrain. Several daily record high temperatures may be set this afternoon, including ABQ (3/18 record is 80F), though this will be our "coolest" day through at least Saturday. Winds will remain rather light, outside of a few northwest breezes near Farmington. Given the dry nature of the atmospheric column, sharp temperature inversions are likely to set up overnight, specifically in mountain valleys, giving way to colder temps.

The strong ridge inches closer to NM on Thursday, likely centering itself over southwestern AZ by midday. Temperatures begin to flirt with all time monthly record highs. For our climate sites specifically, Roswell and Clayton are forecast to be a few degrees shy of their all time March record high, while ABQ is forecast to break it by several degrees. Other than these potential record temperatures, light winds will make for a rather pleasant day.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 102 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The upper high nudges closer on Friday, centering itself over southern AZ. High temperatures across NM continue to rise, with more daily and monthly record temperatures in jeopardy. This is also the first day where ABQ has a low (~15%) chance to hit 90F for the first time this year. For perspective, the current earliest 90F degree day for ABQ is May 3, so any 90F occurrence for the Sunport would obliterate the old record. Highs are likely to be in the low to mid 90s across south central and eastern NM for Friday, with low to mid 80s elsewhere.

Saturday is shaping up to be the hottest day of the period. The ridge shifts towards Tuscon, AZ and the bootheel of NM, further amplifying pressure heights across NM. Mid to upper 90s are likely across low elevation areas with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. If we do not reach 90F in ABQ on Friday, it is increasingly likely we will on Saturday, with rather high confidence in that. Roswell and Clayton also look to tie/break their all time March record highs Saturday as well. If that wasn't enough, there is a low (~20%) chance for Tucumcari to breach the triple digits on Saturday. Needless to say, it's going to be a hot one. Also impressive are the forecast dewpoint and RH values for Saturday. Would not be surprised to see a few negative dewpoint values in western NM, with widespread single digit RH dropping as low as 3-4%.

Sunday sees our first real change in conditions as a backdoor front is slated to push through eastern NM sometime during the afternoon. Timing of this front is difficult given rather wide model spread, so the high temperatures across eastern NM on Sunday could fluctuate quite a bit as the timing is ironed out in the next few days. As of now, it is most likely to move through mid to late afternoon, so it still gives southeast NM time to warm up into the mid 90s. Guidance is also pinging this front to push through the central mountain chain, producing a breezy gap wind for ABQ Sunday night/Monday morning. Temperatures on Monday will be much "cooler" across eastern NM with highs likely in the high 60s to 70s, though this will still be above average for the second half of March. Alongside this cold front, zonal flow works to flatten the ridge, decreasing pressure heights and temperatures across the state moving into next week. There is a signal for the ridge to rebuild to the west of NM in the middle part of next week, but this will depend on the evolution of a troughing pattern off the west coast of CONUS.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Modest westerly to northwesterly winds this afternoon will begin to taper off this evening. Light and variable winds will be the rule, with the exception of a localized stronger northerly drainage winds at KSAF. Modest westerly to northwesterly winds return most areas of western and central NM Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

While widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, very dry air will continue to lay over the state throughout the weekend if not beyond. This will allow the RH portion of the RFTI to rise to 3-4 most days as RH values fall to near or below 5%. Winds will be a limiting factor most days with winds only up to 10-15mph. During these dry days, rapid fire spread doesn't appear likely due to the lack of wind, but fires will be able to start easily given the dry conditions. The exception may be Sunday behind a stiff backdoor front producing stronger northerly winds, though RH values may rise above 15% as the front passes through. A few days of breezy conditions may return during the middle of next week, increasing the threat of critical fire weather and rapid fire spread.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, while winds are not much of a factor this weekend, the significantly low RH values will work to dry up a vast majority of both fine fuels and timber this weekend. Single digit RH hours may range from 8-12, especially on Saturday. This will continue to prime fuels and raise ERCs across much of the area. This appears to be a primer for a more extended fire weather season if/when windier conditions return.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 39 82 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 81 33 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 38 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 32 85 34 85 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 82 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 34 85 36 86 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 39 83 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 89 40 91 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 93 46 96 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 36 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 43 83 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 25 75 29 76 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 28 81 31 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 43 81 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 39 87 41 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 84 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 90 46 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 46 89 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 38 88 40 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 45 90 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 39 89 41 91 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 45 90 46 92 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 40 89 42 91 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 49 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 89 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 47 90 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 43 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 85 38 87 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 80 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 83 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 84 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 86 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 39 78 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 82 39 84 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 84 36 85 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 40 82 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 46 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 41 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 40 90 43 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 42 87 43 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 89 42 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 48 90 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 93 45 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 41 91 42 93 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 91 47 94 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 90 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 89 49 90 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.