textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- High temperatures continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal resulting in moderate to major heat risk across much of New Mexico, especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are expected on several days over central and western New Mexico.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

- Smoke from wildfires in Utah, Nevada, and Colorado may continue to impact air quality across northern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently across eastern NM as of 1am are producing an outflow boundary that is pushing south and west towards the central mountain chain. As this boundary pushes up against the mountains early this morning, folks could see a brief but gusty gap wind in the morning commute. There also may be a few showers forming across the Sacramento Mountains near sunrise. What this boundary is also likely to do is provide additional moisture for afternoon thunderstorms, as well as necessary easterly upslope flow. This afternoon looks to play out in a very similar way to the last few afternoons: storms across the central mountain chain and southwest mountains through the afternoon and evening, with a few storms in northeast NM capable of producing strong winds and hail. The severe threat is slightly lower today given a downtick in shear, but it still appears likely that a few strong storms will develop given the hot temperatures correlating directly to adequate instability. Slow moving thunderstorms across southwest NM will also be capable of locally heavy rainfall, which may result in isolated flash flooding instances. Across south central NM, storms look to form along the Sacramento Mountains, which may pose a threat to the Ruidoso area burn scars. The HREF and REFS LPMM did very well yesterday with the storms that formed just west of the South Fork burn scar, and one again they show storms forming along and west of the ridgeline. Steering flow, albeit slow, should remain south to southwest throughout the afternoon, with a chance that it could become westerly at times. Depending on where storms initially develop, this may help keep storms away from the sensitive areas.

Hot temperatures also remain across the area, with Heat Advisories remaining in effect across portions of northwest and central NM, including Farmington and Albuquerque. However, even as Heat Advisories only cover a few forecast zones, it will be hot across the entire forecast area. HeatRisk across our area will be in the Moderate level with isolated areas of Major, mainly in urban areas. Folks should continue to stay hydrated and take breaks if outside for extended periods of time.

Friday is forecast to be a very similar day, without trying to sound like a broken record. A few Heat Advisories will likely be needed again in the same areas, and daily thunderstorm chances remain across the high terrain, moving off to the adjacent highlands. The severe threat looks to decrease even further with weakening shear values, but cannot rule out some strong wind gusts given high low- level lapse rates in the forecast. Storm motion starts to shift more north to south, which may bring some rain to areas that have missed out over the last few days.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Overall, sensible weather does not change much day to day in the long term period. Hot temperatures are very likely to remain with highs looking to drop just a few degrees as we go into the middle of next week. Daily thunderstorm chances will remain through the next several days at least, if not extending further past the end of the long term period. Models are still pinging an increase in moisture coming into the area, as evident by the gradual increase in PWAT values across the state. Southerly components of 700mb flow look to increase during this timeframe, which would be the catalyst (or at least one factor) of an increased surge in moisture. This flow has a decent chance to be affected by some approaching easterly waves, which are very hard to narrow down this far out. With the good consistency through the last several model runs (over the course of a few days now), precipitation chances do begin to rise as we get into the early to middle part of next week. What does that mean for the overall precipitation for New Mexico? That remains to be seen, especially for specific locations. This pattern does favor more precipitation returning to areas in western and northern NM that have missed out on rainfall over the past few days, which is a promising sign. Nonetheless, this pattern still speaks as a "wait and see" type for where the true beneficial rainfall occurs and how location-specific Monsoon rainfall amounts turn out.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Isolated storms continue across Lincoln County from near KSRR to KROW this morning, and should dissipate by 15z or so. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high terrain this afternoon after 18z. Most storms will be capable of gusty winds and brief MVFR to IFR visibility. Several outflow boundaries are expected to develop from storms in the mid-afternoon hours (21z and beyond) and impact terminals across much of the I-40 corridor from KABQ westward. Storms on the Jemez Mountains are also likely to send outflow winds towards KSAF. Through the evening hours (after 00z), outflow from storms across southern NM are likely to send up gusty winds to central NM TAF sites through the evening hours. Highest confidence in these are at KABQ/AEG and KSAF, with slightly lower confidence at KGUP. Across eastern NM, a cluster of storms may produce gusty and erratic winds at terminals mainly along and south of I-40, though with low confidence in winds reaching as far south as KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, though fuels remain dry and receptive across a good portion of the area (especially those that have not received rainfall in awhile). Daily thunderstorm chances remain across most high terrain areas in New Mexico during each afternoon. These storms are likely to produce frequent lightning, which may continue to pose a problem over dry fuels. Gusty outflow winds are also likely with any storm, which may induce isolated rapid fire spread or help ignite dormant lightning strikes. Hot temperatures also remain with areas across western NM remaining in the low teens to upper single digit humidity values. Precipitation chances are favored to rise across more of western and northern NM going into next week, which may begin to chip away at the dry fuels in those areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 101 63 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 98 53 99 54 / 0 0 5 5 Cuba............................ 96 61 96 61 / 0 5 10 5 Gallup.......................... 96 60 96 59 / 5 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 90 57 91 57 / 20 5 10 5 Grants.......................... 95 61 94 60 / 5 5 5 5 Quemado......................... 90 61 91 60 / 50 20 10 10 Magdalena....................... 90 65 90 64 / 40 10 20 30 Datil........................... 86 60 87 59 / 60 10 30 20 Reserve......................... 94 60 95 59 / 60 20 50 10 Glenwood........................ 99 65 99 63 / 60 20 70 10 Chama........................... 92 53 92 54 / 5 0 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 92 63 91 63 / 10 10 20 5 Pecos........................... 94 58 93 58 / 10 10 50 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 92 58 92 58 / 5 5 20 0 Red River....................... 85 48 85 49 / 10 5 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 86 42 86 43 / 20 5 50 0 Taos............................ 94 57 92 57 / 5 5 20 0 Mora............................ 89 54 89 54 / 30 10 50 5 Espanola........................ 100 64 100 64 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 93 63 90 63 / 0 20 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 60 93 60 / 0 20 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 70 97 69 / 10 20 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 68 98 67 / 10 20 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 102 67 100 66 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 69 98 69 / 5 20 5 5 Belen........................... 101 66 101 65 / 10 20 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 102 68 100 67 / 0 20 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 101 65 100 64 / 10 20 10 20 Corrales........................ 102 69 100 68 / 5 20 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 101 65 101 65 / 10 20 10 10 Placitas........................ 97 67 95 66 / 5 20 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 101 69 99 68 / 0 20 10 5 Socorro......................... 102 71 101 70 / 30 10 5 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 62 90 61 / 10 20 40 20 Tijeras......................... 95 65 94 63 / 10 20 40 20 Edgewood........................ 95 60 94 59 / 20 20 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 56 94 55 / 30 20 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 89 60 88 60 / 30 20 40 40 Mountainair..................... 94 60 94 59 / 40 20 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 93 60 92 60 / 50 20 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 95 67 95 65 / 60 30 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 85 60 84 59 / 50 30 30 10 Capulin......................... 88 56 89 57 / 20 10 30 5 Raton........................... 91 55 92 55 / 20 10 40 5 Springer........................ 95 55 95 56 / 30 5 30 5 Las Vegas....................... 90 57 89 57 / 30 20 30 10 Clayton......................... 95 62 96 64 / 0 20 20 20 Roy............................. 92 60 92 60 / 20 10 20 20 Conchas......................... 99 67 100 67 / 10 30 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 95 65 95 64 / 20 20 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 100 68 99 67 / 0 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 97 68 97 67 / 0 5 5 30 Portales........................ 99 69 99 68 / 0 5 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 98 69 98 68 / 0 10 5 30 Roswell......................... 100 72 100 71 / 0 5 0 10 Picacho......................... 95 66 95 65 / 10 10 5 5 Elk............................. 93 62 93 61 / 20 10 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-217-219.