textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues today with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico.

- Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust this afternoon.

- Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A stout 100-110kt H3 jetmax, sampled by the Reno WFO on the prior 00Z sounding, continues to dig south and southeastward over Area 51 northwest of Las Vegas, NV this hour. Southwesterly winds ahead of this system over AZ/NM continues to strengthen in response to this H5 low closing off and deepening over NV/UT this morning. Most of these winds remain aloft just above the surface but have and will continue to waffle up and down in altitude, at times reaching the surface in erratic fashion. The ABQ Sunport has seen some of these erratic wind speeds already tonight at times gusting to 30 mph before subsiding again. A day of strong winds gusting 30 to 45 mph, peaking in strength to 50 to 55 mph along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts remains on track. Numerical model guidance continues to show the main jetmax and vortlobe rounding the southern periphery of the H5 low over northern NM by 12pm MDT today before quickly ejecting northeastward over the Great Plains late today and tonight. This timing just misses peak diurnal heating and mixing to fully realize the highest wind potential. As such, while it won't be surprising to see a few gusts reach high wind thresholds of > 58mph along the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps a stray spot along the northeastern highlands, confidence was not high enough to fully upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning with this forecast package. Wind Advisories were instead hoisted across the northeastern quadrant of the state from Taos and the Sangre de Cristo's eastward and from I-40 northward. Hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles and localized blowing dust threatening low visibility will be the main travel impacts this afternoon. Any precipitation associated with this system will barely skirt the far northern tier of the state along the CO border.

Wind speeds quickly taper off past sunset this evening as the aforementioned H5 low opens and quickly exits the region. Left in its wake will be a potent cold front backing southward through eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusty northerly winds up to 25 to 35 mph will push in behind the front, aided by a quick 3hr 9-12mb increase in MSLP. This will be a concern for any fire suppression activities over eastern NM given the initial sudden wind shift. The good news is that winds will decrease further through Tuesday morning before shifting easterly then southeasterly over eastern NM. Drier southerly to southwesterly winds return to a good portion of the highlands, having never left western NM and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon, but at a significantly lower speed relative to Monday. A few stray showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm if any would favor the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, another dry day for many aside from the increase in humidity over eastern NM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Wednesday begins the long term with a tricky meteorological forecast over eastern NM. The aforementioned cold front that backs through eastern NM Tuesday will see winds veer southeasterly across eastern NM. The question however is whether or not return flow from the Gulf will bring in warmer air and higher dewpoints in the upper 50s into eastern NM Wednesday, or if the subtly drier continental airmass further north with its lower dewpoints in the 40s holds on? The warmer and higher moisture GFS solution would favor a higher instability and chances for subsequent afternoon thunderstorm activity along a sharpening dryline over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. The more stable NAM solution would likely favor a blanket of low stratus loitering over eastern NM much of the day suppressing chances for afternoon convection. A middle ground compromise (deterministic Canadian solution) was chosen for this forecast package where the boundary b/w the higher moisture Gulf return flow and continental airmass is faded somewhere through east-central NM with some afternoon convection favored along the dryline along the highlands immediately east of the central mountain chain.

While western NM stays high and dry, eastern NM will see low level moisture attempt to push westward again into parts of the Rio Grande Valley through the gaps of the central mountain chain. How much will likely depend on coverage and strength of any convective outflow boundaries occurring from any convective activity over eastern NM Wednesday evening. This will determine how widespread any afternoon convective activity will be over the eastern third of NM Thursday. Modest westerlies associated with a shortwave trough trekking eastward over WY/CO will shunt low-level moisture back east into the TX/OK Panhandles by Friday. This shuts down precipitation chances for much of eastern NM except the furthest northeastern corner in Union County. A subsequent cold front backing southward through eastern NM in the wake of the exiting shortwave trough will replenish moisture over eastern NM next weekend. This will return the two-faced pattern of weather over NM with western areas remaining high and dry with chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity over eastern NM.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Strengthening southwesterly winds aloft across the region alongside decreasing surface winds will continue the threat of LLWS thru the night. This will steadily subside through the morning hours around dawn as southwesterly surface wind speeds begin to increase again. Strong southwesterly gusts will commonly reach 25 to 35 kts over the region with the weakest wind speeds relegated to far northwestern NM near KFMN. The strongest gusts of 40 to 50 kts will focus along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Some patchy blowing dust could also reduce visibilities at some dust prone terminals Monday afternoon, including at KABQ and KROW. An Airport Weather Warning for gusts reaching or just surpassing 35kts may be required for KABQ as well Monday afternoon. Winds begin to taper off in earnest past 00Z Monday evening, with the exception of gusty northerly winds behind a cold front advancing southward along the NM/TX border Monday night into Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY...

Southwesterly to westerly winds strengthen in earnest this morning gusting 30 to 45 mph with peak gusts reaching 50 to 55+ mph along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. The exception will be moderately weaker westerlies in far northwestern NM where a few stray showers may skirt the CO border. Otherwise, the winds will combine with widespread humidity falling to 10 to 15 percent with 6 to 11 hours of single-digit humidity in the lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains to produce widespread critical fire weather conditions. Extremely critical conditions will exist where the strongest winds coincide with the lowest single-digit humidity over east-central and northeastern NM.

Winds quickly retreat from their peak speeds this evening with the exception of far eastern NM where gusty northerly to northeasterly winds behind an advancing cold front will bring a sudden wind shift late this evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Timing of this sudden wind shift will be a main concern for any ongoing suppression activities through eastern NM. Otherwise, the good news is cooler temperatures and better recoveries heading into Tuesday once winds calm. Breezy to at times windy southwesterlies return Tuesday afternoon, pushing back this moisture toward TX and CO and producing elevated to locally critical conditions in portions of the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ.

A stronger westward push of low-level moisture pushes a dry line westward to or through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. This will create a dichotomy of dry elevated fire weather conditions over western NM each day with higher moisture and chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity across eastern NM Wednesday and Thursday. Central portions along the central mountain chain and the Rio Grande Valley will be in flux with likely good overnight recoveries with drying conditions during the afternoons. Friday sees drier westerlies punch eastward toward the TX line before higher low-level moisture returns to eastern NM next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 68 39 75 43 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 30 73 37 / 50 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 67 37 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 34 74 36 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 66 38 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 72 37 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 37 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 41 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 57 31 67 37 / 60 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 69 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 73 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 30 Red River....................... 54 32 61 35 / 0 0 5 40 Angel Fire...................... 62 26 63 31 / 0 0 10 40 Taos............................ 68 35 72 42 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 69 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 30 Espanola........................ 77 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 45 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 49 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 50 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 46 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 46 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 50 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 40 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 78 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 72 30 63 37 / 0 5 0 40 Raton........................... 76 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 40 Springer........................ 78 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 40 Las Vegas....................... 73 37 69 43 / 0 0 0 40 Clayton......................... 83 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 40 Roy............................. 78 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 40 Conchas......................... 88 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 40 Santa Rosa...................... 84 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 40 Tucumcari....................... 91 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 40 Clovis.......................... 89 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 91 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 88 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 40 Roswell......................... 92 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 83 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 80 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109-121>126.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-212>216-223-227>234.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.