textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026 - There will be a moderate risk of heat induced illness across lower elevation areas each of the next seven days, except for localized major heat risk in some southern and eastern locations Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Wednesday and Thursday, when there will be a risk of severe storms on the eastern plains, and a mix of wet and dry storms west of the central mountain chain. Storms with lighter rain, lightning, and gusty downburst winds will linger into Friday. - Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A few high res models are now depicting some isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms moving over the northeast corner of NM tonight. A backdoor cold front aided by outflow from storms passing to the northeast of NM may help trigger the convection over northeast NM. This gusty and moist backdoor front will dive southwestward through the eastern plains tonight, where a northeast breeze will persist through Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a strong mid-level high pressure system centered over El Paso today will weaken/flatten out some and nudge southward a little on Wednesday as a disturbance embedded in its western periphery rides around the northern periphery and crosses the central Rockies. Aside from increasing instability over the forecast area, the disturbance will also increase elevated moisture over western and central parts of the forecast area on Wednesday. The net result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and northern parts of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and evening with spottier activity farther south. Inverted-V temperature and dewpoint profiles west of the central mountain chain, and PWATs there only around 0.50-0.80", will result in some virga showers and dry storms in the mix west of the central mountain chain. DCAPE over central and western areas generally varying around 800-1800 J/KG, and locally up to 2400 J/KG around Gallup, will enable some of these to produce erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, except up to 60 mph around Gallup, and blowing dust with little or no rainfall reaching the surface. Storms will be wetter along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and evening, where PWATs will vary from 0.80-1.00". Some storms will also turn severe across northeast and east central NM on Wednesday, as 0-6 KM bulk shear varies from 25-45 KT and CAPE varies from 1800-3500 J/KG. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat, but with strongly veering wind profiles an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

High temperatures are forecast to fall a few to as much as 12 degrees on Wednesday compared to today's readings, except for little change long the south central and southwest border of the forecast area. Aside from the moist backdoor front, and the weakening high pressure system aloft, another cooling factor on Wednesday will be increased cloud cover from the scattered convection. The NBM suggests another Heat Advisory will be needed Wednesday afternoon in the central valley from Albuquerque southward, and also around Roswell. However, a review of model inputs to the NBM indicates Wednesday's temperature forecast is heavily influenced by bias corrected model output. The increased cloud cover and increased atmospheric moisture will make Wednesday unlike the previous days this week when the model bias developed, so with this forecast package we forecast highs for Wednesday a little below the NBM across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and Chaves County plains. Tonight's night shift will re-evaluate the need for any Heat Advisories on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday and to a lesser extent Friday as the disturbances in the westerlies over the northern and central Rockies weaken the upper high and flatten it out further. PWATs will climb some on Wednesday as better moisture works its way northward over the state under the ridge aloft, but there will still be some dry thunderstorms and gusty virga showers in the mix over central and western parts of the forecast area. The risk of gusty and dry storms may spread to parts of the east as well on Friday as drier air begins to work its way over the forecast area from the west decreasing storm coverage some.

Saturday and Sunday will then feature very dry, breezy to windy, southwest flow with potentially widespread critical fire weather conditions as a deep upper level trough develops over the western US. Breezy southwest winds look to continue into Monday with a risk of additional critical fire weather conditions over northern, central, and western parts of NM. However, a building ridge of high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley may begin to steer better Gulf moisture over NM's southeast and east central plains by Monday enabling wetting showers and storms to develop there.

Otherwise, high temperatures will continue to vary from near to several degrees above 30-year averages late this week into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

High temperatures a few to around 12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today and Wednesday will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain. Isolated virga showers that develop over the southwest mountains this afternoon will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic dry-microburst wind gusts up to 45 mph with some potentially impactful blowing dust. Tonight, there will be a 20-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area from Raton to Clayton. A few of these storms may turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. A backdoor front aided by thunderstorm outflow will also dive southwestward through the eastern plains tonight with a gusty northeasterly wind shift, except for a more northerly wind shift in the lower Pecos River valley. A northeast breeze will then persist through the morning across the east on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

After hot and dry conditions today, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Wednesday, then increase further in coverage Thursday, before decreasing in coverage as drier air arrives Friday. There will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms and gusty virga showers west of the central mountain chain Wednesday and Thursday. Drier convection will become more prevalent Friday, when gusty virga showers and dry storms may begin to spread to parts of eastern NM as well. After three days of lightning Wednesday through Friday, a fire growing pattern will develop this weekend, and potentially into Monday, as very dry and warm southwest flow strengthens over the fire weather forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 94 59 91 / 0 10 40 20 Dulce........................... 47 91 46 87 / 0 10 40 20 Cuba............................ 58 90 55 86 / 0 10 40 50 Gallup.......................... 56 92 50 88 / 0 20 50 40 El Morro........................ 57 91 53 85 / 0 20 40 40 Grants.......................... 57 93 52 89 / 0 40 40 60 Quemado......................... 58 91 56 87 / 5 20 20 60 Magdalena....................... 66 91 62 89 / 0 20 20 60 Datil........................... 61 89 57 86 / 0 30 10 60 Reserve......................... 55 98 53 94 / 5 20 20 30 Glenwood........................ 61 103 60 99 / 0 10 20 10 Chama........................... 47 84 46 80 / 0 10 40 40 Los Alamos...................... 64 89 61 85 / 0 10 40 60 Pecos........................... 57 92 55 88 / 0 5 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 87 55 82 / 0 10 50 50 Red River....................... 47 79 47 73 / 0 20 50 50 Angel Fire...................... 43 83 43 78 / 0 10 50 30 Taos............................ 52 90 52 85 / 0 0 40 40 Mora............................ 54 87 52 84 / 0 20 40 20 Espanola........................ 59 96 58 91 / 0 5 40 50 Santa Fe........................ 63 92 61 87 / 0 5 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 94 58 90 / 0 5 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 98 67 94 / 0 0 10 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 99 64 95 / 0 0 10 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 101 63 97 / 0 0 10 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 99 65 95 / 0 0 20 60 Belen........................... 64 101 62 97 / 0 0 10 50 Bernalillo...................... 66 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 50 Bosque Farms.................... 63 100 61 96 / 0 0 10 50 Corrales........................ 66 100 64 96 / 0 0 20 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 100 62 96 / 0 0 10 50 Placitas........................ 67 96 65 92 / 0 0 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 66 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 50 Socorro......................... 72 103 68 100 / 0 5 10 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 93 61 89 / 0 0 20 40 Tijeras......................... 64 94 60 90 / 0 0 10 40 Edgewood........................ 60 95 57 92 / 0 0 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 97 54 93 / 0 0 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 58 91 55 89 / 0 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 60 96 57 93 / 0 0 10 30 Gran Quivira.................... 63 95 59 92 / 0 0 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 68 99 65 97 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 63 92 61 90 / 0 20 10 20 Capulin......................... 53 84 52 85 / 20 60 30 40 Raton........................... 55 89 52 89 / 20 50 20 30 Springer........................ 56 89 54 91 / 10 50 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 55 89 / 0 50 40 10 Clayton......................... 60 85 60 92 / 20 10 20 40 Roy............................. 59 87 56 91 / 10 40 40 20 Conchas......................... 64 95 61 100 / 5 10 40 10 Santa Rosa...................... 63 94 60 96 / 0 10 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 67 95 63 100 / 5 5 40 10 Clovis.......................... 67 99 64 100 / 0 10 50 5 Portales........................ 68 100 65 102 / 5 10 50 5 Fort Sumner..................... 67 98 64 99 / 0 0 30 20 Roswell......................... 70 104 68 103 / 0 10 20 5 Picacho......................... 66 99 63 98 / 0 20 10 30 Elk............................. 64 98 61 97 / 0 20 5 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ207-219>221-225- 226-238>240.