textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness at lower elevations of central and eastern NM Thursday through Sunday, except for major heat risk across the southeast plains this weekend.

- Some storms may turn severe and produce large hail and damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening over northeast New Mexico today. An isolated severe storm is possible elsewhere across eastern NM this afternoon. - Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through the overnight and early morning hours Thursday. The 00Z ABQ sounding boasted a 0.73" PWAT and this will continue to climb overnight into the 0.90" range as Pacific moisture continues to stream into NM. With weak upper level perturbations crossing the state, showers and thunderstorms will quickly expand on Thursday afternoon. Any shower or thunderstorm will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds to 50 mph, though wouldn't be surprised if one or two had higher gusts. There is a low chance that a few storms across eastern NM could become severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail, but confidence is low outside of northeast NM where an outflow boundary pushing into the area late this aftn/eve will be a focus. Wetting rainfall footprints will be larger than yesterday, but still spotty owing to quick storm motions today. Rainfall amounts between a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch will be most common. A few showers and thunderstorms should linger through the overnight hours.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, though a deepening upper level trough over CA will begin to steer drier air over NM. Much like Thursday, gusty and erratic winds will be the main concern. A boundary will still be loitering around far northeast NM which could trigger a severe storm.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

As an upper low moves over the northern Great Basin over the weekend, southwest flow aloft will increase over NM. Dry and windy conditions will prevail each day. 25 to 35kt are noted at H7, deep mixing (well above H7), and warmer temperatures cause great concern for critical fire weather conditions over a large area. Gusts at the surface of 35 to 45 mph will be common. Any fires that start due to lightning through Friday will have the potential to spread rapidly. More details are in the Fire Weather section below. While most of the area will be dry and windy, there will be just enough moisture across far east central and southeast NM for an isolated storm to develop.

Early next work week, moisture is expected to slowly creep back toward the north and west. For Monday, dry and breezy conditions will linger for most areas, but return flow Sunday night will draw more low level moisture northward into southeast and east central NM. This will allow for a few more storms to develop in these areas Monday afternoon. Moisture return improves more Monday night, and isolated to scattered storms will be possible along and east of the ContDvd Tuesday. The main question going forward will be how far east the west coast trough migrates and if drier conditions will prevail across northwest NM, or if southerly flow will prevail across NM which would continue to increase moisture through mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Scattered storms will increase in coverage across the region after 18Z, with the greatest coverage focusing over central and western New Mexico. Strong outflow wind gusts to 30 to 50 kts will be commonplace around the region with this activity, although the threat of large hail is low. Patchy blowing dust may get kicked up where stronger wind gusts move over dry soils in western/central NM. Storms will decrease in coverage this evening with the loss of daytime heating, but showers with embedded storms will likely linger in central and western areas through around 09Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the exception of very brief MVFR vis with stronger storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday. Though PWATs are above normal, quick storm motions will limit precipitation amounts at any one location. Much drier air will spread over NM this weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are likely as southwest winds gusts between 35 and 45 mph each afternoon and humidity values fall below 15 percent. This is especially concerning given the amount of lightning that already has happened and will happen through Friday. Any lightning-started fires will have the potential to rapidly spread this weekend. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of northwest NM, northeast NM, and the Central Highlands for Saturday. There are some nuances between each area in terms of vegetation and precipitation. Northwest NM remains very dry, and any precipitation that occurs today and Friday will not be enough to mitigate concerns of rapid fire spread. Across northeast NM, there have been severe storms, and some of these storms have dropped copious amounts of rainfall. But they too have been spotty, and there is a mix of the amount of green-up that has occurred. So, there are still pockets that could burn rapidly. If this area received widespread abundant rainfall through Friday, the watch could be cancelled, but this seems unlikely at this point. The Central Highlands have just recently received some good but spotty rain, but local intel suggests it's still quite brown and ready to burn. This is corroborated by how quick the Canyon Venado fire spread east of Clines Corners earlier this week. If winds trend upward further, the Rio Grande Valley and the Sandia/Manzano Mountains may also need to be added into the watch. Another watch will likely be issued for Sunday over the next 24-36 hours.

Moisture will gradually increase from southeast to northwest early next week, but dry and breezy conditions will still prevail Monday for most areas. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase gradually through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 61 86 58 / 30 30 40 30 Dulce........................... 84 54 80 45 / 20 30 40 70 Cuba............................ 80 56 82 54 / 50 50 60 30 Gallup.......................... 84 55 85 53 / 50 50 20 10 El Morro........................ 81 55 82 54 / 60 50 20 10 Grants.......................... 84 57 85 54 / 60 40 30 10 Quemado......................... 83 57 83 55 / 70 30 30 5 Magdalena....................... 86 60 86 61 / 50 40 30 20 Datil........................... 83 57 83 58 / 60 40 20 10 Reserve......................... 88 59 89 53 / 40 30 10 0 Glenwood........................ 94 63 92 57 / 30 30 10 10 Chama........................... 77 51 75 44 / 30 30 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 82 57 83 59 / 40 30 50 30 Pecos........................... 82 55 84 55 / 40 30 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 53 79 53 / 30 30 40 50 Red River....................... 70 48 69 46 / 30 30 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 49 76 42 / 20 20 20 40 Taos............................ 83 54 84 50 / 20 20 30 40 Mora............................ 80 54 82 53 / 40 20 30 20 Espanola........................ 87 59 88 56 / 40 30 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 83 56 84 59 / 50 30 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 57 87 56 / 40 20 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 63 88 65 / 60 30 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 64 91 61 / 60 30 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 63 93 61 / 60 30 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 63 91 62 / 60 30 40 20 Belen........................... 92 63 94 58 / 60 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 90 63 91 62 / 60 30 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 91 63 93 58 / 60 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 90 63 92 62 / 60 30 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 92 64 93 59 / 60 30 30 20 Placitas........................ 87 62 88 63 / 60 30 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 89 63 91 62 / 60 30 40 20 Socorro......................... 93 65 94 65 / 50 30 50 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 85 59 / 60 30 40 20 Tijeras......................... 85 59 86 59 / 50 30 30 20 Edgewood........................ 86 58 87 56 / 40 30 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 57 88 53 / 40 20 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 84 56 85 56 / 30 20 30 20 Mountainair..................... 86 59 87 57 / 40 20 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 87 60 89 58 / 40 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 92 66 92 65 / 30 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 85 61 84 61 / 10 20 10 10 Capulin......................... 85 56 84 53 / 20 20 30 20 Raton........................... 88 57 88 52 / 10 20 20 10 Springer........................ 90 59 91 54 / 10 20 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 85 56 86 57 / 20 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 92 62 89 61 / 30 20 40 50 Roy............................. 89 60 89 57 / 20 10 20 10 Conchas......................... 98 67 98 64 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 95 66 96 63 / 20 20 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 99 67 98 66 / 20 10 10 20 Clovis.......................... 96 67 96 67 / 20 20 10 10 Portales........................ 97 68 97 68 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 97 67 98 64 / 40 20 10 10 Roswell......................... 100 73 100 69 / 20 20 20 10 Picacho......................... 95 69 93 65 / 40 20 20 10 Elk............................. 91 66 90 62 / 20 20 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NMZ101-104-105-120-121-123-125.