textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

- A few more record high temperatures are forecast today across western and central New Mexico and Tuesday across east central and southeast New Mexico.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today, Tuesday and Thursday due to strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 106 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

A weak backdoor front/boundary has pushed through eastern NM early this morning. Low clouds are still expected to develop in portions of east central NM through mid morning, but these clouds should slowly erode in the afternoon. Nonetheless, temperatures will be hampered by the clouds and increased moisture. Portions of east central NM will be around 10-12 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds behind the boundary will veer around to the south by late morning and a few breezes will be noted. Meanwhile, west of the boundary, southwest winds will increase this afternoon. Strong mixing ahead of a trough/weakly closed low crossing the Great Basin will result in wind gusts up to 35 or 40 mph, particularly near Gallup and Las Vegas. High temperatures will remain above normal areawide, and a few records will be in jeopardy again this afternoon. Guidance has trended a degree or two lower in ABQ so chances are lowering that the Sunport will reach 80 degrees today, but chances remain high that ABQ will break a high temperature record.

The aforementioned trough/weakly closed low will slide eastward across UT and CO Monday night and Tuesday. An associated Pacific front will cross NM on Tuesday, dropping temperatures 5 to 10 degrees across western and central NM. Strong downsloping across eastern NM will allow temps to warm over today's readings by a few degrees, and a record or two will be in jeopardy. At H7, west winds will increase to between 30 and 40kt. This combined with 75th percentile mixing heights and a modest surface low over NE NM will allow west surface winds to increase areawide, though most notably so along and east of the Central Mountain Chain where gusts up to 40 mph are likely. Winds should stay sub-advisory, but KCQC will get close for an hour or two in the afternoon. Winds will subside Tuesday evening, then a backdoor front will slide across eastern NM Tuesday night as the upper level system departs.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 106 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

A beautiful day is in store across the Land of Enchantment on Wednesday as shortwave ridging crosses the state. Temperatures across eastern NM will be tempered in the wake of the backdoor front, so all areas (sans highest elevations) will be in the 60s and 70s with relatively light winds.

The next storm system will approach NM on Thursday. Southwest winds aloft will again increase (30-40kt at H7, up to 50kt at H5) and mixing heights should approach 550 mb. Additionally, the surface low across southeast CO will deepen to 994-995mb. Thus, Thursday should be the windiest day of the week areawide, though wind speeds should remain below advisory levels for most areas.

Forecast confidence is low after Thursday as models are having a difficult time resolving the upper air pattern. The most likely scenario still involves a shortwave crossing CO on Friday into Saturday while additional energy dives southward on the backside of the system, forming a cut-off low that retrogrades toward the northern Baja. Main model differences are how fast and how far southwest the low retrogrades and then, how fast it ejects out early next week. Temperatures are expected to be cooler Friday through the weekend, with a backdoor front still on tap Friday into Saturday. Precipitation chances continue to look minimal (10-30%) Fri through Sun.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Strengthening southwest flow aloft will produce widespread breezy conditions today with gusts of 20 to 30KT common between 2pm and 5pm. High clouds will also increase from west to east today and tonight with greater coverage of low turb and LLWS. A backdoor cold front will then race south across eastern NM tonight and settle along the east slopes of the central mt chain around sunrise Tuesday. A brief period of north wind gusts near 40KT is possible around KTCC along the frontal passage and BLDU may occur. There is a 10-20% chance of MVFR low cigs ahead of the cold front south and east of KROW after midnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today, Tuesday and Thursday. For today, critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Northeast Highlands, mainly along and east of I-25 from Ribera to Raton. A Red Flag Warning is in effect. Southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph with sub-15% RH is forecast. On Tuesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected for a larger area of eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Westerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph and sub-15% RH is expected. Thursday should be the windiest day of the week areawide. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be favored for most areas. A few to several hours of single digit humidity is forecast for portions of central and eastern NM. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Rio Grande Valley eastward to the Texas border with near-critical conditions across western NM. Above normal temperatures are expected through Thursday, despite periodic frontal intrusions, but cooler (near normal) temperatures with low chances for precipitation return Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 71 38 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 67 30 60 22 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 71 36 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 71 29 63 21 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 69 34 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 73 33 67 23 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 73 36 66 28 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 44 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 37 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 76 35 72 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 39 76 31 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 60 28 53 22 / 0 5 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 68 42 62 34 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 68 40 63 29 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 37 58 28 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 61 30 53 20 / 0 0 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 62 30 55 18 / 0 0 0 20 Taos............................ 68 34 62 22 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 69 39 63 27 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 76 40 70 28 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 69 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 40 66 32 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 48 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 46 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 45 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 45 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 81 42 77 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 46 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 81 42 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 45 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 81 43 76 33 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 47 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 79 45 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 84 46 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 43 65 34 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 74 42 68 34 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 74 41 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 38 69 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 40 65 31 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 75 42 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 74 43 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 49 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 49 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 69 37 65 27 / 0 0 10 20 Raton........................... 72 36 68 26 / 0 0 10 20 Springer........................ 75 36 71 28 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 72 41 68 28 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 72 44 74 34 / 0 0 0 20 Roy............................. 74 41 73 32 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 81 44 80 36 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 78 43 76 36 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 79 45 82 35 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 76 47 83 37 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 76 45 84 37 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 77 42 82 36 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 45 87 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 48 81 39 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 83 47 78 37 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ123.