textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will continue to bring widespread heavy rain today through Thursday night with additional occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances will increase again and bring more soaking rain Sunday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

It's a rainy day around central and northern New Mexico. The state remains sandwiched between an upper-low over Baja California and a high over Texas. Sub-tropical moisture continues to stream in from the south, pushing atmospheric moisture up to near record to record levels for the late September. Precipitation thus far today has been focused along a wave embedded within this southerly flow. Persistent light rainfall has been the story for areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley, with rainfall rates remaining below 0.2"/hour. Therefore the Flash Flood Watch was cancelled for these areas early. The threat of heavy rainfall still persists further east where isentropic lift is stronger and mid-level destabilization has begun to occur. SPC Mesoanalysis analyzes 500-100J/kg of MU CAPE across the eastern plains where lightning activity has picked up in the past couple of hours. This along with recent hi-res guidance suggests the 1-4" swath of rainfall that has been previously advertised will likely set up along a N/S line extending from Roswell northward to Santa Rosa where heavy rain will likely be the most persistent. Given that this follows the Pecos river, it does nudge the risk of some minor flooding along the Pecos higher. Heavy precipitation will lift northward into the northeast quadrant of the state this evening and overnight as the wave moves northward into southern CO. While there will be some very weak subsidence in the wake of this wave, moist southerly flow will be sufficient to generate a few showers across central and western areas through the night as well, with a minimal threat of flash flooding.

The sub-tropical moisture plume will begin to get disrupted Thursday as the Baja Low rapidly ejects northeast into Arizona and eventually New Mexico by late Thursday. While the moisture fetch will not be as strong as today, PWATs will still range from 100-200% of normal across New Mexico. Storm chances will focus in western NM with the ejecting low and also in eastern NM where persistent isentropic lift will continue to generate rounds of showers and storms. The Flash Flood Watch for the southeast, including Ruidoso and Roswell, was extended through Thursday night given the continued flash flood threat and may need to be extended northward to encompass the east- central and northeast plains as well. HREF and REFS guidance is not showing as widespread heavy rainfall Thursday as compared to today, but locally heavy rainfall over very saturated soils will keep the flood threat elevated. Lift provided from the Baja low will also help to keep rain showers going across south-central and eastern areas through the overnight hours Thursday yet again.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Southwest flow will begin to take over on Friday, leading to a drying trend of the atmosphere from southwest to northeast. There will still be enough moisture around though for scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. Furthermore, jet dynamics become more favorable as the cyclonic jet streak strengthens as it moves into the high plains of eastern NM/west Texas. Rain chances will focus over northern and eastern New Mexico Friday, with lower chances across the west. Most likely rainfall amounts remain below 1.5" areawide for Friday, but 90th percentile guidance is showing potential for 2-3" in the east-central plains where soil moisture should be very high by Friday. Dry air finally takes over on Saturday, which will be a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and near-average temperatures.

The sub-tropical jet stream continues to get more active early next week, seeing the return of high rain chances. The moisture from now major Hurricane Polo will likely get caught up in the jet stream and advected over the desert southwest during this period, although its not yet clear the exact trajectory of this moisture. Nonetheless, LREF mean PWATs rise above the 90th percentile areawide again Monday and Tuesday of next week. 10th percentile rainfall amounts have almost no precipitation over New Mexico during this period, suggesting that the return of deep, subtropical moisture is not a guarantee just yet. Trends in the progression of the trough digging into the Mojave Desert will be monitored closely as this will determine where moisture gets pushed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will persist across the eastern half of the state through the evening and much of the overnight hours, while rain showers across the Rio Grande Valley will slowly decrease this evening. Patchy MVFR and locally IFR cigs will continue this evening, but should become more numerous overnight. Patchy fog is also possible, though difficult to pinpoint where is most likely given nearly all areas are saturated attm. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday nearly areawide, but will be more scattered. Locally heavy rainfall may reduce vsbys.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

24-hour rainfall totals generally range from less than 0.1" across far western NM to over 3" in pockets of northern and eastern NM. A swath of persistent rain showers continues to lift across central New Mexico this afternoon, with heavier storms across the east and only very light rain in the west. Rounds of showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours in central and particularly eastern New Mexico, with flooding concerns the main hazard. Patchy fog is likely to develop tonight in and around the mountains, although significant visibility reductions remain unlikely.

Showers and storms will focus over the same areas Thursday and Friday, with rain chances trending slightly lower each day. Drier weather is likely over the weekend before rain chances return again early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 73 53 74 / 30 50 20 20 Dulce........................... 49 65 46 71 / 80 70 60 60 Cuba............................ 50 65 48 67 / 70 50 40 50 Gallup.......................... 46 71 48 71 / 10 30 40 30 El Morro........................ 47 68 46 68 / 20 30 50 50 Grants.......................... 48 69 48 70 / 40 40 50 70 Quemado......................... 48 69 49 70 / 20 30 40 20 Magdalena....................... 52 68 51 68 / 50 30 70 60 Datil........................... 48 67 49 67 / 30 40 70 40 Reserve......................... 50 75 51 76 / 30 30 70 30 Glenwood........................ 56 79 56 80 / 40 30 80 20 Chama........................... 46 60 45 63 / 90 80 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 52 64 51 66 / 90 60 50 60 Pecos........................... 51 65 49 68 / 90 60 60 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 63 47 66 / 100 70 50 60 Red River....................... 42 54 41 58 / 100 80 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 44 59 40 63 / 100 80 50 60 Taos............................ 49 66 48 69 / 100 70 50 60 Mora............................ 50 63 48 69 / 100 70 60 50 Espanola........................ 54 70 51 73 / 90 60 50 60 Santa Fe........................ 52 64 52 67 / 90 60 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 67 52 69 / 90 50 60 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 69 56 73 / 70 30 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 71 57 72 / 70 30 60 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 73 57 74 / 60 20 60 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 71 56 72 / 70 20 60 50 Belen........................... 57 73 56 73 / 60 20 70 50 Bernalillo...................... 57 72 56 74 / 70 30 60 50 Bosque Farms.................... 56 73 55 73 / 60 20 70 50 Corrales........................ 57 72 56 74 / 70 30 60 50 Los Lunas....................... 56 73 55 74 / 60 20 70 50 Placitas........................ 55 69 55 71 / 80 40 60 50 Rio Rancho...................... 56 71 56 73 / 70 30 60 50 Socorro......................... 56 75 57 76 / 60 20 80 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 65 51 67 / 80 40 60 50 Tijeras......................... 53 66 53 68 / 80 30 60 50 Edgewood........................ 54 68 52 71 / 80 40 60 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 70 49 72 / 80 40 60 60 Clines Corners.................. 51 66 51 68 / 90 40 70 60 Mountainair..................... 53 68 52 70 / 70 30 80 60 Gran Quivira.................... 53 68 52 68 / 70 40 80 60 Carrizozo....................... 57 70 56 72 / 80 60 90 70 Ruidoso......................... 52 66 52 69 / 80 70 90 70 Capulin......................... 52 63 50 69 / 100 70 60 40 Raton........................... 53 67 50 73 / 90 70 60 50 Springer........................ 54 70 51 75 / 90 50 50 40 Las Vegas....................... 52 66 50 70 / 100 60 70 50 Clayton......................... 58 71 57 74 / 100 70 60 50 Roy............................. 55 67 55 71 / 90 60 70 50 Conchas......................... 61 75 60 78 / 100 60 80 60 Santa Rosa...................... 59 73 59 75 / 90 50 90 60 Tucumcari....................... 62 76 60 76 / 90 60 80 80 Clovis.......................... 61 74 61 76 / 80 70 90 90 Portales........................ 63 76 61 77 / 80 70 80 90 Fort Sumner..................... 62 74 61 76 / 90 60 90 80 Roswell......................... 64 76 63 79 / 80 60 90 70 Picacho......................... 58 72 57 76 / 80 70 90 80 Elk............................. 55 70 55 77 / 70 70 90 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ212>215-218-221>225- 227>236.

Flood Watch through late Thursday night for NMZ226-237>240.