textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds gusting 35 to 50 mph will impact travel for high profile vehicles across east central and south central NM into the early evening hours. - Valley rain and high mountain snow bring minor travel impacts to northwestern NM Tuesday and Tuesday night, expanding across the northern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Late season hard freeze will pose a risk to newly budding plants and sensitive vegetation over northern valley areas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper low is moving east over Las Vegas, NV per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, while a backdoor cold front has pulled up stationary near a Las Vegas (NM) to Santa Rosa to Clovis line. Areas of rain this morning have transitioned into showers with daytime heating and garden-variety thunderstorms are currently moving east from AZ into west central NM south of Gallup. The latest CAMs show a continued increase in convection across western NM this afternoon, then focusing more across northern NM later this evening as the upper low fills and accelerates toward the Four Corners. The latest HRRR and HREF show thunderstorms moving E-NE into the Albuquerque Metro between 3-5PM, potentially impacting the late afternoon commute with a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, brief downpours and small hail. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds have materialized across south central areas this afternoon, where gusts to between 50-58mph have already been observed. The Wind Advisory for the South Central Mountains and SW Chaves County is on track and will continue through 9PM this evening. Snow is still forecast to accumulate above 9Kft tonight in the northern mountains, though with little-to-no impact to population centers. Snow levels will fall further early Wednesday as a shortwave trough drops south across the southern Rockies and into northern NM, bringing snow accumulation down to around 8Kft. Added forcing from the backdoor cold front will increase precipitation intensity and may bring snow levels down to Raton Pass (7.8Kft), where accumulating snow may create difficult travel conditions. However, warm road temperatures will likely limit impacts similar to the last event. Our storm total snow amounts would favor an advisory, but those amounts are relegated to the peaks and the last event underperformed. All of that said, will hold off on an advisory for now. The shortwave trough will push the backdoor cold front down the plains Wednesday and bring a front door segment as well, which will bring brisk conditions to western areas and hit the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros around 4-5PM. Precipitation will favor northeast and east central areas Wednesday afternoon behind the southward sinking backdoor cold front. Cooler are forecast Wednesday, with high temperatures generally 5-15 degrees below average, except for across far northeast NM where highs will be 20-30 degrees below average. Precipitation will diminish across eastern NM Wednesday night and gradual clearing is forecast. Cold air advection will continue overnight behind the front and freezing temperatures are forecast for locales that are near or past their average last freeze dates. A hard freeze is forecast for portions of north central, northeast and west central NM late Wednesday night. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the appropriate forecast zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

After a cold start to Thursday morning, with a few freeze warnings likely to be in effect, a warming trend will begin that will continue through Saturday and temperatures will rise above average areawide by Friday. A Baja low is still forecast to move south of NM on Friday into far west TX and won't be a player in our forecast. A shortwave trough moving southeast through the central Rockies on Saturday will steer stronger northwest winds aloft over NM and result in breezy to locally windy conditions after some daytime mixing. A backdoor cold front will move down the eastern plains Saturday night and bring cooler conditions going into Sunday, while western NM remains toasty with highs 5-10 degrees above average. The backdoor cold front may bring sufficient moisture to fuel a round of convection along the central mountain chain Sunday afternoon, which would move off over the adjacent eastern highlands late afternoon and evening. An upper level high is forecast to strengthen over AZ and move over NM from early through mid next week, bringing above to well above average temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorm activity continues across northern and central NM. The threat of localized MVFR or even isolated IFR restrictions from this activity wanes past sunset. Prevailing strong winds will also wane past sunset, not entirely dying off to calm conditions however. Westerly winds pick up late morning ahead of the next system tracking over northern and central NM later Wednesday afternoon. Valley rain and mountain snow will bring moderate risk of IFR/LIFR across the northern mountains, with MVFR and localized IFR conditions stretching southward mainly into central and east-central NM. Have included PROB30s for mention of thunderstorm activity at KFMN, KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF from this for Wednesday afternoon. A potent northerly to northeasterly wind shift will follow a cold front pushing southward late afternoon and Wednesday evening as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will continue through Wednesday as a backdoor cold front, an approaching Pacific low and a trailing shortwave trough all impact the area. A warming and drying trend will begin Thursday, with temperatures climbing above average areawide by Friday. Increasing northwest flow aloft and daytime mixing will bring the elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions on Saturday, but recent rainfall and ERCs are unfavorable for rapid fire spread. The Northwest Plateau may be the lone exception, with low a probability (20-30%) for critical fire weather conditions on Saturday afternoon. A strong backdoor cold front will impact eastern NM Saturday night through Sunday, bringing a wind shift, higher humidity and low chances for wetting precipitation. Wind speeds will trend down early next week as dry and warmer conditions persist under the influence of an upper high.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 39 62 31 71 / 50 30 5 0 Dulce........................... 34 56 23 66 / 70 60 10 5 Cuba............................ 35 57 27 66 / 70 50 10 0 Gallup.......................... 34 63 24 70 / 60 40 20 0 El Morro........................ 35 60 29 66 / 40 20 20 0 Grants.......................... 36 62 27 69 / 30 30 30 0 Quemado......................... 34 62 32 67 / 20 10 10 0 Magdalena....................... 39 65 38 68 / 10 10 10 5 Datil........................... 35 61 33 66 / 20 5 10 5 Reserve......................... 31 67 33 74 / 20 10 10 0 Glenwood........................ 34 70 36 79 / 10 5 10 5 Chama........................... 31 47 21 59 / 70 70 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 40 58 34 65 / 70 50 20 5 Pecos........................... 34 59 28 66 / 50 50 70 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 49 23 61 / 70 70 50 5 Red River....................... 30 40 19 49 / 70 80 70 5 Angel Fire...................... 27 46 16 54 / 70 70 60 10 Taos............................ 36 55 22 66 / 70 60 30 5 Mora............................ 33 56 25 65 / 60 70 70 10 Espanola........................ 41 63 32 71 / 70 40 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 38 59 32 66 / 60 50 40 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 39 63 31 69 / 60 30 30 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 66 40 71 / 50 20 30 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 44 69 41 73 / 40 20 30 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 42 71 37 75 / 40 20 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 69 39 74 / 40 20 30 0 Belen........................... 40 73 36 74 / 20 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 43 69 37 75 / 50 30 30 0 Bosque Farms.................... 39 72 35 74 / 30 20 20 0 Corrales........................ 42 69 37 75 / 50 30 30 0 Los Lunas....................... 39 72 36 74 / 30 20 20 0 Placitas........................ 44 65 37 70 / 60 30 30 0 Rio Rancho...................... 44 68 38 74 / 50 30 30 0 Socorro......................... 44 74 43 76 / 10 10 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 61 34 66 / 60 30 40 0 Tijeras......................... 40 63 35 67 / 50 20 30 0 Edgewood........................ 38 64 32 68 / 50 20 40 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 66 25 70 / 40 10 50 5 Clines Corners.................. 35 60 29 64 / 30 20 70 5 Mountainair..................... 37 65 32 68 / 30 10 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 37 65 32 67 / 20 10 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 45 67 41 71 / 10 0 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 42 62 36 65 / 10 0 5 10 Capulin......................... 31 41 22 61 / 70 80 60 5 Raton........................... 35 47 24 65 / 70 80 60 5 Springer........................ 37 53 25 68 / 60 80 60 5 Las Vegas....................... 35 58 25 65 / 40 60 70 10 Clayton......................... 34 45 29 69 / 70 80 60 0 Roy............................. 36 54 28 66 / 50 70 70 10 Conchas......................... 43 64 33 73 / 30 30 80 5 Santa Rosa...................... 43 69 34 70 / 20 10 60 5 Tucumcari....................... 43 66 34 75 / 30 20 70 0 Clovis.......................... 45 72 35 72 / 10 5 20 0 Portales........................ 47 75 36 74 / 5 5 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 46 75 35 73 / 10 5 20 5 Roswell......................... 50 80 43 73 / 0 0 10 5 Picacho......................... 46 72 38 70 / 0 0 10 10 Elk............................. 43 70 35 71 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NMZ201-218.

Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for NMZ228>231.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240.