textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth into mid week.

- Dry storms and showers will produce strong and erratic wind gusts in central and northern New Mexico this afternoon and evening.

- A few strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico this afternoon and again on Wednesday near the Texas and Oklahoma borders.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough over the Mojave desert with two shortwaves embedded within it. One is over the Four Corners region, while the other is in central California. The one over the Four Corners will provide some lift today, helping to generate isolated convection over central and northern NM. With dry southwest flow draped across the western half of the state, any convection that develops in this area will be of the drier nature. Across the east, low level moisture pushed in overnight and continues to trend higher. Storms here will gradually trend wetter through the afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts will be the main threat with any convection today, although some hi-res models are hinting at the development of a supercell in Union County where the shear environment is more favorable for organized storms. In north- central NM, there will be modest instability (100-200 J/kg of MU CAPE) this afternoon and near normal moisture. While the 18Z Sounding at KABQ was relatively unimpressive, the increase of moisture through the afternoon should destabilize the atmosphere and support a few virga showers and dry storms.

Wednesday's weather will be very similar to today, with dry southwest flow in western NM and more moisture in the east. There will be less upper-level forcing than today, but the tightening of the dryline in eastern NM will serve as a forcing mechanism for afternoon convection. While a few gusty showers and even storms could develop west of the central mountain chain, confidence is lower than today. Bulk shear will be slightly higher tomorrow (25 to 35 knots) so a severe storm or two could develop in the eastern plains where PoPs are highest. The gradual warming and drying trend will continue across the western half of the state Wednesday where fire weather concerns remain.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Southwest flow will begin to weaken late week, allowing ridging to build in and moisture to sneak up from the south. This should be enough for a few isolated storms over the Sacramento mountains both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Storm motions will be slow so there is a threat of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars. Currently, the NBM has around a 10% chance of at least 0.25" over the burn areas both Thursday and Friday, although these chances could trend higher over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, it will still be dry both Thursday and Friday, with impressively low dewpoints in the single digits and teens across the northwest third of the state. This drying in an already drought stricken area will continue to dry out vegetation, which is a concern given that the 4th of July is on Saturday. While it is technically Monsoon Season, it has been dry of late, particularly in the Four Corners region so fireworks have the potential to start additional fires. The good news is that rain chances will trend up early next week as ridging begins to develop over the desert southwest. Storm chances will likely spread from east to west Sunday through Tuesday, with increasing coverage each day. By the middle of next week, all ensemble systems are showing PWATs of 100 to 130% of normal across all of New Mexico so there will likely be at least scattered slow-moving storms each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Isolated to scattered storms will favor areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley today. Storms will have the potential to produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts, with the highest chances across the northeast where storms may become severe. Blowing dust may accompany outflow boundaries along the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Storms will decrease in coverage after sunset, although outflow boundaries will persist into the late evening hours. Winds overnight will generally be light, except for a brisk southerly breeze in the eastern plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are ongoing around the state today. There is a stark difference between western and eastern NM, with dewpoints ranging from as low as 20 F in the northwest to nearly 60 F in the southeast. Isolated to scattered storms will favor eastern NM today, with gusty and erratic wind gusts the main hazard. A few dry storms and virga showers may develop across central and northern areas, including the northern mountains this afternoon. Wednesday will be very similar to today, except even drier across the west. Despite the lower humidities, winds will also be lower so no fire weather headlines have been issued for Wednesday. Once again, isolated dry storms will be a concern on the northwest fringes of the moisture, which will likely set-up over the Central/Northeast Highlands just east of the central mountain chain.

Dry weather prevails Thursday through Saturday with the exception of an isolated storm or two in and around the Sacramento mountains. Humidities will continue to trend drier in western NM, with 10 to 15 hours of single digit RH each afternoon. Moisture will gradually return to the region from the south and east early next week, with increasing shower and storm chances, lighter winds, and higher humidities.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 86 42 89 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 85 51 87 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 85 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 49 88 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 52 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 87 58 88 / 5 5 0 0 Datil........................... 54 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 47 88 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 51 93 50 96 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 44 79 43 82 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 84 60 86 / 20 10 5 0 Pecos........................... 52 85 52 87 / 30 10 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 82 51 84 / 30 10 5 0 Red River....................... 44 73 44 75 / 30 10 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 39 77 38 79 / 40 10 5 0 Taos............................ 51 84 50 87 / 20 5 5 0 Mora............................ 50 82 50 85 / 30 10 10 0 Espanola........................ 58 91 57 93 / 20 10 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 85 56 87 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 88 54 90 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 91 61 93 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 93 62 94 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 95 59 96 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 94 61 95 / 10 5 5 0 Belen........................... 61 95 58 96 / 10 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 62 94 60 95 / 10 5 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 59 94 57 96 / 10 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 62 95 60 96 / 10 5 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 59 95 57 96 / 10 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 90 62 91 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 94 62 95 / 10 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 67 98 65 99 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 86 57 88 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 87 58 89 / 10 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 57 88 55 90 / 10 10 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 90 49 91 / 10 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 84 53 86 / 20 20 20 0 Mountainair..................... 58 88 56 90 / 10 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 87 56 88 / 5 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 90 63 91 / 0 10 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 58 82 57 83 / 10 30 5 40 Capulin......................... 54 85 54 88 / 20 20 20 0 Raton........................... 51 88 50 91 / 20 10 10 0 Springer........................ 53 90 52 93 / 30 10 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 86 53 88 / 40 10 10 0 Clayton......................... 63 93 62 95 / 20 20 10 0 Roy............................. 58 88 58 90 / 20 10 20 0 Conchas......................... 64 96 63 97 / 20 30 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 61 92 / 20 30 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 96 66 96 / 30 30 20 5 Clovis.......................... 65 91 64 92 / 40 40 30 30 Portales........................ 66 93 65 93 / 50 50 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 66 93 65 95 / 20 30 10 10 Roswell......................... 68 94 67 95 / 30 40 20 20 Picacho......................... 62 91 60 91 / 20 50 10 50 Elk............................. 60 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105.