textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Along and east of the central mountain chain, storms will be capable of turning severe with large hail and damaging winds each afternoon and evening through Thursday .

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms over northeast and east central areas through Thursday.

- Near to record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat impacts and heat related illnesses each afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure is sitting atop NM, and per the 18Z sounding the 500 mb heights were at 598 decameters, which looks to be a daily record. This will keep hot temperatures in place, although the moisture that we do have in place (PWAT of 1.04 inch on the 18Z sounding) will help moderate temperatures slightly. Outside of the northeastern zones, blended guidance has reduced POPs considerably for many areas today and Tuesday, however we have not fully bought into this given available moisture and instability. Coverage will certainly be more sparse over western zones and the east central plains, but there is still a non-zero chance unlike what much of the guidance suggests. Slow movement will also persist, making it hard for cells to propagate off of the high terrain this afternoon. Weak perturbations are still sliding eastward over CO, and a cooler, moist surface boundary resides over far eastern CO and KS. These will all eventually assist with convective production (and perhaps strong to severe cells) near the NM-CO border which will likely send some outflow southward into our eastern plains tonight. The more vigorous storms are modeled to dissipate through the evening with a few showers persisting, mainly in northeastern zones through the early morning.

The aforementioned outflow will have provided a slight uptick in dewpoints over the eastern plains by Tuesday morning, and some easterly upslope flow would also likely follow into the early afternoon Tuesday. This would allow storms to develop more easily over eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristos and central highlands. This will also offer a larger spatial area of deeper directional shear, increasing the strong to severe storm potential for eastern zones. Temperatures would remain hot, but would likely run a degree or two lower than today's readings in the plains.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure will reposition toward the AZ-NM border, south of I-40 on Wednesday with heights reducing by a couple of decameters. Tuesday's storms will have sent moist outflows westward beyond the Rio Grande while the backdoor frontal airmass continues to hold ground over the southern plains. This scenario will continue to provide a favorable environment for strong to severe storms, just about anywhere east of the central mountain chain on Wednesday. The latest REFS QPF mean is boasting some heftier rainfall totals near and just east of the central mountain chain while the Continental Divide also is shown to host more storms Wednesday.

Wednesday's convection will likely be the main determinant for Thursday's activity, meaning the extent of moisture from Wednesday outflows and the subsequent wind components will dictate the most likely areas to observe convective initiation. The backdoor frontal boundary does look like it might start to relax and wash out in NM late in Thursday, but if the upslope southeasterly flow east of the central mountain chain can survive, a healthier dose of storms will follow. West central to southwestern areas should still observe a healthy coverage of storms on Thursday too, even with the upper high being stronger in that area.

The high would potentially begin to nudge back northeastward slightly on Friday with storm coverage being a bit more subdued due to reliance on moisture recycling. Into the weekend, tropical storm activity continues to be modeled in the far eastern Pacific with westward headings that will pose no direct impacts to NM. However, the upper high does appear to sidestep eastward. This would open the door to southwesterlies aloft that could yield a more traditional monsoon plume of moisture over eastern AZ and western NM. Ensemble means are supportive of this as well with all clusters showing anomalously high PWATs entering much of the northwestern half of NM through the weekend. Conceptually this makes sense, as the jet does tend to dip farther south in response to more ITCZ or tropical convection, but we'll definitely want more run-to-run continuity before getting overzealous.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Similar to past days, thunderstorms will first develop over the western and northern high terrain early this afternoon before filling into nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. An approaching upper level disturbance and moist surface boundary will lead to a higher concentration of storms in northeastern New Mexico where cells will have the potential to turn strong to severe with larger hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will dwindle in most areas before midnight, but a few stray showers could hold on over northeastern areas through the early morning Tuesday. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will continue to impede aircraft performance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure is forecast to stay strong and over NM through Friday, keeping temperatures hot and well above normal. This has also kept deeper subtropical moisture from intruding into the state from the south, and we will be solely reliant on backdoor surface fronts for any upswings in storm coverage. This will happen each day through Thursday with storms being more plentiful and strong to severe over eastern zones through the middle of the week. Storms and wetting rainfall potential will tend to decrease and remain spotty over western areas today and Tuesday, but should see a slight increase each day Wednesday and Thursday. Consequently, western zones will suffer from the most persistent low humidity trends with afternoon readings commonly dipping to 12 to 20% while early morning recoveries will be toned down to 40 to 60% in many zones. Eastern areas will fare better with good to excellent recoveries, especially Wednesday through Friday. Storms look to decrease in coverage some Friday, potentially shifting more into western areas of NM this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 95 64 95 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 91 50 91 / 10 20 5 30 Cuba............................ 59 91 59 90 / 10 10 10 20 Gallup.......................... 56 91 58 92 / 10 10 10 20 El Morro........................ 56 87 57 87 / 20 20 10 30 Grants.......................... 58 91 59 90 / 20 20 10 40 Quemado......................... 58 88 60 89 / 10 20 10 30 Magdalena....................... 64 89 64 89 / 10 10 5 20 Datil........................... 58 87 60 86 / 10 10 10 30 Reserve......................... 58 94 60 95 / 10 10 5 20 Glenwood........................ 64 100 65 100 / 5 10 5 10 Chama........................... 52 84 51 83 / 20 30 10 40 Los Alamos...................... 64 87 63 85 / 20 30 20 60 Pecos........................... 59 90 58 87 / 20 20 20 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 84 54 83 / 30 40 40 70 Red River....................... 44 78 45 76 / 40 50 40 70 Angel Fire...................... 38 82 38 79 / 30 40 40 70 Taos............................ 55 88 54 86 / 20 30 20 60 Mora............................ 55 85 52 81 / 20 40 40 70 Espanola........................ 60 94 61 92 / 10 20 30 50 Santa Fe........................ 62 90 62 88 / 10 10 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 94 60 92 / 10 10 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 97 70 95 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 99 63 97 / 10 10 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 98 69 96 / 10 10 10 10 Belen........................... 67 99 68 98 / 10 5 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 67 98 67 96 / 10 10 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 64 98 64 97 / 10 10 10 20 Corrales........................ 67 98 67 97 / 10 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 66 98 66 97 / 10 10 10 10 Placitas........................ 66 94 67 93 / 10 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 69 97 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 71 100 72 99 / 5 5 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 61 89 / 10 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 64 92 63 90 / 10 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 61 91 60 89 / 10 20 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 93 57 91 / 10 20 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 61 90 59 87 / 20 20 20 60 Mountainair..................... 60 93 59 91 / 10 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 92 60 90 / 10 10 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 69 96 67 94 / 5 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 57 89 56 87 / 5 30 10 50 Capulin......................... 55 84 54 81 / 40 60 60 80 Raton........................... 55 89 54 86 / 30 60 60 80 Springer........................ 56 91 55 87 / 30 60 50 70 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 56 84 / 20 40 40 70 Clayton......................... 65 93 62 88 / 40 50 70 40 Roy............................. 61 91 59 86 / 30 50 60 70 Conchas......................... 67 98 65 94 / 20 30 50 40 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 64 92 / 20 20 40 40 Tucumcari....................... 68 99 65 93 / 20 20 60 30 Clovis.......................... 69 99 67 94 / 10 20 30 30 Portales........................ 70 101 67 97 / 10 20 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 69 100 67 95 / 20 20 30 20 Roswell......................... 71 104 71 100 / 0 10 0 10 Picacho......................... 67 98 65 94 / 5 10 10 20 Elk............................. 65 94 63 91 / 5 10 0 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.