textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 434 PM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Much colder temperatures today into Monday with gusty northwest and northeast winds this afternoon creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles. - Moderate chance of impactful snow accumulations in southeast Lincoln and southern Chaves County tonight through Monday night. The exact placement of heaviest snowfall remains highly uncertain so stay tuned to forecast updates if planning to travel in this area Monday. - Drier and warmer mid-week, with increasing rain and high mountain snow chances in western New Mexico late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1245 PM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

Gusty winds have developed in the wake of a strong cold front, with gusts in excess of 50 mph being observed just east of the central mountain chain at locations such as Las Vegas and Clines Corners. The backdoor portion of the front is also pushing southward down the eastern plains, dropping temperatures despite the rising sun. Winds are likely peaking right around now, with decreasing winds through the afternoon as the 700mb winds rapidly drop off. Temperatures will cool off significantly overnight with good inversion conditions in most areas except for the fact that high clouds will continue streaming in from the southwest. Isentropic lift of a warm/moist airmass from the Gulf of California will lead to the development of a snowband somewhere in south/central and southeastern NM shortly after Midnight, with this snowband expanding and drifting northward by sunrise. The cold airmass at the sfc in the wake of the cold front will insure the ptype is all snow initially, even though temperatures will be close to freezing. A saturated dendritic growth zone with lift throughout this layer will promote the development of large flaky snow, with rates >1"/hour where the main E/W oriented band sets up. Recent trends have nudged this snow band northward and prompted the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories for the Sacramento mountains, including Ruidoso, eastern Lincoln county, and Chaves county. While the northern fringes of these counties may remain completely dry, the southern portions of these zones have a 10% chance of receiving 4-7". The bullseye for snow looks like it will be in SW Chaves County or along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains, but if trends continue, this may be shifted slightly north right into the Ruidoso area. This is the kind of scenario where both the 10th and 90th percentile snow amounts will likely end up verifying in different areas, depending on where the band sets up.

The recent warmth means ground temperatures are well-above freezing so snow may initially struggle to accumulate from Roswell to Dexter until heavier rates develop. Snow will taper off in the evening, with most snow ending by Midnight. It should be noted that there is a very low chance (<10%) of freezing rain towards the end of this event in Chaves county as warm air in the 700-850mb layer erodes the cold air. Model soundings indicate that is unlikely and that elevated temps will remain below -3C, but models are notoriously poor at resolving these elevated warm layers so it will be something to watch. Elsewhere, Monday will be the coldest day in a while with highs in the 40s in most areas, which is right around normal for late December.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1245 PM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

Models have backed off on showing the light rain/snow showers expanding northward into central NM on Tuesday, with the dry air in place simply being too much to overcome. There may be some high based virga and gloomy skies, especially early in the day, but rain/snow now looks unlikely. Temperatures will moderate a few degrees on Tuesday, with more warming Wednesday as high clouds from Pacific moisture spread across the region from southwest to northeast.

Long-term guidance is starting to get into better agreement about the arrival of the next storm system on Thursday as a trough with ample Pacific moisture ejects inland into the desert southwest. There are still decent timing discrepancies between ensemble systems, but confidence is increasing for rain and high mountain snow across the western half of the state Thursday through early Friday. Snow levels should be above 9,000 feet with this Pacific storm so any snow impacts will be confined to high mountain passes. Rain and mountain snow chances decrease over the weekend, but a low chance of precip. remains in western NM as Pacific moisture continues to stream in from the west. Above normal temperatures are favored during this period around the entire area, despite the gloomy skies each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 434 PM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

A band of high clouds looks to persist over central parts of the forecast area tonight and much of Monday. Meanwhile, a disturbance crossing the south central mountains will interact with moist, easterly upslope flow at the surface to produce mountain obscuration, IFR conditions, and accumulating snow from Ruidoso and Dunken eastward to Roswell late tonight until around sunset on Monday. Fog and low clouds will probably then linger in those locations Monday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. A drier and colder airmass is funneling into the state today, resulting in widespread ventilation improvements. Strong northwest to north wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph in central and eastern areas will diminish this afternoon, weakening to a light breeze overnight. A snow band will develop across southeastern NM tonight through Tuesday morning, with several inches of snow likely over the Sacramento mountains and areas just east. Drier weather and warming temps are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in over the region. As a result, poor ventilation will prevail areawide during this period as well. Rain and high mountain snow chances increase across the western half of the state late week, with a moderate chance for wetting precipitation in the western third of the state. Ventilation will likely remain poor through Thursday, with a moderate chance of improvements Friday in at least eastern NM as winds strengthen.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 16 44 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 10 46 12 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 15 41 16 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 9 45 10 49 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 17 43 19 51 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 9 45 12 51 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 20 45 23 54 / 0 10 5 10 Magdalena....................... 25 37 27 48 / 0 20 10 10 Datil........................... 22 39 25 50 / 0 20 10 10 Reserve......................... 19 50 22 59 / 10 40 10 10 Glenwood........................ 23 53 25 61 / 20 50 20 10 Chama........................... 13 40 14 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 20 38 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 16 40 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 18 40 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 13 34 14 44 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 2 39 5 49 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 12 43 10 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 13 42 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 16 46 15 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 21 40 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 20 42 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 27 45 29 49 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 26 46 24 50 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 23 48 23 51 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 26 46 25 50 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 19 45 19 50 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 25 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 18 47 19 51 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 25 48 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 20 46 21 50 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 26 43 26 48 / 0 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 25 47 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 24 43 28 52 / 0 20 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 20 39 22 46 / 0 0 5 5 Tijeras......................... 23 40 23 46 / 0 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 18 40 19 49 / 0 0 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 12 40 12 51 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 16 36 19 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 20 38 21 49 / 0 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 20 36 21 49 / 0 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 26 38 28 50 / 20 50 30 10 Ruidoso......................... 23 33 25 47 / 30 60 40 10 Capulin......................... 12 38 16 54 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 12 40 14 55 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 12 43 12 55 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 14 40 17 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 16 43 21 58 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 15 40 15 53 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 18 46 17 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 19 40 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 18 47 19 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 21 42 22 54 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 22 42 21 54 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 19 42 18 53 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 26 35 22 48 / 30 60 40 5 Picacho......................... 24 34 22 50 / 20 50 30 5 Elk............................. 19 34 19 52 / 50 70 40 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Monday for NMZ226-238-239.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Monday for NMZ240.