textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall today and tomorrow.

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and continuing into next week may increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

High pressure remains situated over northern Mexico near the Gulf of California, aiding in delivering the dry air that remains over the state this afternoon. The 18z ABQ sounding had a PWAT of 0.48", double what yesterday's 00z sounding had (0.22"), but less than yesterday's 18z sounding (0.55"). Needless to say, it remains very dry out there today. The main hazards today remain the heat across central and eastern NM, and the chance for strong outflow winds across western and portions of central NM. For the heat, the 5956m 500mb height at 18z sits around the 99th percentile in climatology, showcasing and explaining why several record temperatures are likely to be challenged, if not broken, this afternoon. Low 100s are likely across eastern NM, with mid to high 90s elsewhere in lower elevation areas. Across western NM, high-res models continue to pick up on a strong signal for inverted-V profiles and increasing mid- level moisture originating from more uniform zonal flow across west- central CONUS. The combination of these announce the increased chances for strong outflow winds from high-based virga showers. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 50-55mph gusts at some locations, especially directly underneath these showers. These winds are likely to begin across western NM (Farmington-Gallup- Quemado) after 3-4pm before surging further eastward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Winds are likely to reach the I-25 corridor after 6-8pm this evening, bringing a decent chance for wind gusts greater than 30-35mph. Brief, isolated 40mph gusts cannot be ruled out. Winds look to slowly taper off through the evening and early overnight hours.

The high pressure slowly slides eastward tomorrow, centering itself over the southern portions of New Mexico. As it does, additional moisture starts to seep into the state. This raises precipitation chances across portions of the southern high terrain, though these storms will be rather slow and isolated in nature given the high sitting directly over them. Temperatures still remain above average across a majority of the state, and some locations in southeast NM may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria (105F). Overall, another relatively benign day with a few isolated to scattered storms is expected for Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A wetter pattern looks to take shape beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. The aforementioned high pressure shifts over to south-central to southeast CONUS, while a trough pushes onshore across western CONUS. The placement of these two features puts a bulk of AZ and NM in a convergence zone where subtropical moisture is easily advected into our region. Sunday looks to be the first of several days of increased precipitation chances. Storms look to initially favor the higher terrain from the central mountain chain westward, before moving into the lower elevations through the evening hours. A speed max rounding the trough to our northwest may provide right entrance region synoptic forcing through Sunday evening into Monday morning, which may allow for rain to continue throughout the overnight hours. This overnight rainfall, should it occur, would likely leave widespread cloud cover and stable air into Monday, which can significantly affect precipitation chances, rainfall intensity, and temperatures. Much of the same can be said for each day next week, which makes the forecast confidence in the finer details degrade each day given the conditional properties. In general, the overall pattern of moisture convergence is likely to remain throughout a good portion of next week, leading to consistent days of higher precipitation chances. LREF PWAT values reach or exceed the 95th percentile each day, showing the favored environment for rainfall. A consistent question mark (outside of the conditional properties above) remains the possibility of a surface boundary or cold front pushing into eastern NM sometime during the middle of the week. A boundary such as this would likely increase precipitation chances across eastern NM. While several fine details remain fuzzy, the upcoming pattern appears favorable for much needed rainfall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist throughout the TAF period, outside of brief blowing dust this evening. Main aviation hazard this afternoon and evening are gusty to strong outflow winds generated by high- based showers and storms across western NM. Closer to western TAF sites (KGUP, KFMN), outflows close to the terminals may produce gusts up to 40kts this afternoon, primarily after 22z. The several outflows that are likely to be generated from this activity will push towards central TAF sites after 00-01z (primarily KABQ and KAEG). Winds may get up to 35kts briefly in the Rio Grande Valley, with a low chance for gusts up to 40kts near KONM. Blowing dust is also a concern for the Rio Grande Valley this evening, which may briefly bring visibilities into MVFR territory. Winds should subside towards 10-15kts at most by 06-09z across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next several days. Low humidity values remain today (widespread low teens to single digits) along with locally breezy conditions. This may bring about isolated elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across east central and northwest NM. An additional concern would be the ignition of any dormant lightning strikes across the area, especially in the northern mountains. High-based showers and storms are also likely in western NM today, which are favored to produce strong outflow winds up to 40mph, low rainfall amounts, and the low chance of a dry lightning strike.

Saturday begins a transition to a more favorable pattern for wetting rainfall, with Sunday ushering in the first of multiple days with higher precipitation chances. Wetting rainfall chances first favor the higher terrain of central and western NM Sunday, before spreading to a majority of the forecast area by the middle of the week. Storms each day are likely to be capable of locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds and small hail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 91 62 91 / 10 0 5 10 Dulce........................... 45 89 48 87 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 55 87 57 85 / 5 0 0 40 Gallup.......................... 54 86 55 86 / 20 10 5 10 El Morro........................ 52 83 53 84 / 20 10 10 50 Grants.......................... 57 87 56 87 / 10 20 20 60 Quemado......................... 56 84 56 84 / 20 10 20 60 Magdalena....................... 61 86 61 85 / 10 20 20 40 Datil........................... 57 83 56 83 / 10 20 20 50 Reserve......................... 55 89 57 87 / 30 40 20 20 Glenwood........................ 60 95 62 92 / 30 10 20 10 Chama........................... 49 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 50 Los Alamos...................... 61 87 61 85 / 0 10 10 20 Pecos........................... 60 89 58 86 / 0 5 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 47 76 46 75 / 0 5 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 35 82 39 80 / 0 5 5 30 Taos............................ 51 89 53 88 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 57 86 54 84 / 0 10 5 40 Espanola........................ 59 94 61 92 / 0 5 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 63 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 91 60 90 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 94 67 92 / 5 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 94 66 93 / 5 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 96 66 95 / 5 0 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 95 67 93 / 5 0 10 10 Belen........................... 62 95 65 95 / 5 0 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 64 96 66 94 / 5 0 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 61 95 65 95 / 5 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 65 96 67 94 / 5 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 62 95 66 95 / 5 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 64 93 65 91 / 5 0 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 64 95 66 93 / 5 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 68 96 69 96 / 5 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 89 60 87 / 5 0 5 20 Tijeras......................... 59 90 62 89 / 5 0 5 20 Edgewood........................ 56 91 59 89 / 0 0 5 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 92 57 91 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 5 20 Mountainair..................... 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 60 89 60 89 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 65 93 66 90 / 0 0 5 30 Ruidoso......................... 60 86 61 83 / 0 20 0 60 Capulin......................... 56 85 55 88 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 54 89 54 91 / 0 0 5 20 Springer........................ 54 93 55 92 / 0 0 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 89 56 87 / 0 5 10 20 Clayton......................... 62 91 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 60 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 65 100 66 99 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 65 96 / 0 0 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 65 100 68 100 / 0 0 5 5 Clovis.......................... 67 100 69 98 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 68 100 70 99 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 101 68 99 / 0 0 10 5 Roswell......................... 69 103 71 101 / 0 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 66 96 65 94 / 0 20 5 30 Elk............................. 63 93 62 90 / 0 20 5 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.