textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Diurnal rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing over the high terrain midday before spreading across adjacent lower elevation areas later in the day early to mid this week. Moderate risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this week.

- Hotter temperatures late this week will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1241 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Higher moisture (PWATs between 0.6 to 1 inch) under a 594 to 595 dam upper high at 500 mb combined with strong daytime heating will result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western and central mountains midday today with a slow drift to the south and southeast through outflow boundaries into nearby lower elevation areas during the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms across southwest and central NM will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with a moderate risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Showers and storms across northwest and far west central NM will be drier in nature with more in the way of gusty and erratic winds over heavier rainfall. Outside of the storms, it will be hot with most lower elevations topping out in the low to mid 90s. Showers and storms across the state gradually taper off during the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating. A similar weather evolution is expected on Tuesday as the upper high shift west towards AZ. A slightly higher overall coverage in showers and thunderstorms for most areas, outside of the far northwest and southeast part of the state, due to a disturbance moving across the northern and central Rockies. High temperatures will be a degree to two hotter than Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1241 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A downtrend in diurnal shower and thunderstorm coverage favoring the higher terrain begins Wednesday with the flattened 596 dam 500 mb upper high over southern CA and northern Baja CA. Even lower coverage of diurnal showers and storms across the higher terrain and nearby highlands Thursday with the flattened upper near still over southern CA. With the lowering storm coverage, high temperatures will heat up a little compared to earlier in the week with 90s to low 100s common across lower elevations. A few zones, like the NW Plateau, middle and lower RGV, and Chaves County Plains will need to be monitored for potential Heat Advisories.

The monsoon high shifts back east towards the state Friday to over the central Rockies this weekend while also strengthening to around 600 dam at 500 mb. This will help keep shower and storm chances favoring the higher terrain on the lower end. The one exception looks to be across northeast NM Friday afternoon and evening due to a disturbance moving southeast among the northwest flow of the upper high circulation centered over AZ. Temperatures will be hot across lower elevations with highs in the 90s to around 100.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Another crop of scattered to numerous thunderstorms develops across the higher terrain midday before spreading into nearby lower elevations later in the day. Storms across southern and central high terrain areas and nearby lower elevations will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Drier showers and thunderstorms across northwest NM, including KGUP, will produce gusty and erratic winds, dry lightning strikes and patchy blowing dust. Shower and thunderstorm activity across central NM tapers off around sunset with a brief period of gusty east canyon winds at KSAF, KABQ and KAEG. Clearing skies and light winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Higher moisture across the area under an upper high will result in better shower and thunderstorm chances today and especially Tuesday first starting across all higher terrain areas before drifting into nearby lower elevations. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall across southwest and central New Mexico along with a higher risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Showers and storms across northwest NM will be on the drier side with gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning strikes being the bigger threat. Lowering shower and thunderstorm coverage across the higher terrain along with hotter temperatures across lower elevation locations beginning Wednesday as the upper high shifts back east to over the central Rockies come the weekend. The one exception will be an uptick in showers and thunderstorms across northeast New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening due to a disturbance rotating southeast around the upper high circulation centered over Arizona.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 97 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 92 51 93 51 / 0 5 20 5 Cuba............................ 91 57 91 56 / 5 20 20 20 Gallup.......................... 92 57 92 57 / 10 10 20 10 El Morro........................ 86 56 87 56 / 20 20 30 10 Grants.......................... 90 56 91 56 / 20 10 40 10 Quemado......................... 88 58 88 59 / 20 10 40 10 Magdalena....................... 88 63 88 63 / 40 20 40 20 Datil........................... 86 58 85 59 / 50 20 60 20 Reserve......................... 92 53 93 54 / 50 20 60 20 Glenwood........................ 97 56 97 57 / 60 30 50 40 Chama........................... 84 49 85 49 / 10 5 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 87 64 86 62 / 20 20 50 30 Pecos........................... 90 56 89 55 / 20 20 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 86 54 / 5 5 50 20 Red River....................... 76 48 77 47 / 20 5 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 81 41 81 42 / 20 10 70 20 Taos............................ 89 55 89 54 / 5 5 40 20 Mora............................ 84 54 84 53 / 40 10 70 30 Espanola........................ 95 62 95 61 / 5 10 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 90 61 89 60 / 10 10 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 58 92 57 / 5 10 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 62 96 61 / 5 10 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 67 97 66 / 0 10 10 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 65 99 64 / 0 10 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 66 97 65 / 0 10 10 20 Belen........................... 98 64 99 64 / 0 10 10 30 Bernalillo...................... 97 65 98 64 / 0 10 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 96 62 98 61 / 0 10 10 30 Corrales........................ 97 65 99 64 / 0 10 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 97 62 98 61 / 0 10 10 30 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 66 / 0 10 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 95 67 97 65 / 0 10 10 30 Socorro......................... 98 71 99 70 / 10 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 62 90 61 / 10 20 30 40 Tijeras......................... 91 61 91 61 / 10 20 30 40 Edgewood........................ 90 60 91 59 / 20 20 40 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 54 92 54 / 20 20 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 87 57 87 57 / 30 20 40 30 Mountainair..................... 91 60 90 60 / 20 20 40 30 Gran Quivira.................... 89 59 88 60 / 30 30 30 30 Carrizozo....................... 92 65 91 67 / 30 20 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 84 58 83 60 / 50 20 30 20 Capulin......................... 86 57 86 56 / 20 10 40 10 Raton........................... 92 53 91 53 / 20 10 30 20 Springer........................ 93 56 92 56 / 20 20 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 88 57 87 56 / 30 20 50 20 Clayton......................... 93 63 95 64 / 0 5 5 30 Roy............................. 89 61 90 60 / 0 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 97 65 98 66 / 0 20 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 93 64 93 65 / 5 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 96 67 98 68 / 0 10 5 20 Clovis.......................... 93 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 97 67 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 95 67 97 68 / 0 10 5 10 Roswell......................... 98 69 99 71 / 0 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 92 64 93 65 / 20 10 20 10 Elk............................. 87 60 90 62 / 50 5 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.