textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 207 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms will produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds this afternoon west of the central mountain chain.

- Very low chance (<10%) for fog to develop across the southeast plains early this morning and limit visibility to a half mile or less, creating difficult to hazardous travel conditions.

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, bringing more showers, storms and high mountain snow favoring western and northern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

A shortwave upper level ridge will crest over NM today and tonight with increasing southwest flow aloft and improving mid/high level moisture advection. Another crop of showers and storms will form over the high terrain of southwest NM (10-20% chance) then move quickly east toward the Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon. DCAPE values >500 J/kg south of the I-40 corridor with large inverted-V profiles will support gusty and erratic winds but little rainfall. The 00Z HREF and REFS 75th to 90th percentile support isolated rain amounts >0.10" in the high terrain of Catron and Socorro counties. Otherwise, the rest of the area will be tranquil with increasing clouds, warmer temps, lower humidity, and southwesterly wind gusts of 15-30 mph. A second area of showers may form over northwest NM by late afternoon and early evening then move into the northwest high terrain thru midnight (20-30% chance). Winds aloft will continue strengthening overnight with persistent breezes along and east of the central mt chain. Min temps will trend much warmer than the past several nights.

Flow aloft increases to around 100kt Monday as a subtropical jet streams northeast ahead of a weakening upper level low near SoCal. Thickening high clouds will make for a mostly cloudy day for most of the area. West winds will increase areawide as a ~993mb surface low develops over southeast CO and 700-500mb winds increase to between 30 and 40kt around the higher terrain and parts of eastern NM. The latest REFS wind gust probs >40 mph average 30-50% along the central mt chain. Widespread cloud cover may limit mixing so the stronger winds may actually be relegated to the east slopes of the central mt chain. Max temps also trend much warmer over eastern NM given the downsloping flow.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday are still tricky and confidence remains low to moderate on precip coverage and amounts. The subtropical jet will continue strengthening to near 120kt while moving slowly east into NM Tuesday. Stronger moisture advection and improving lift will help an area of showers and storms to form from southwest to northeast over western NM. NBM 50th percentile QPF is generally <0.10" in this area while several deterministic models show a few areas with amounts closer to 0.25". It will also be breezy again and southwest wind gusts may approach 50 mph (Wind Advisory) around Lincoln and southwest Chaves counties Tuesday afternoon (NBM 75th to 90th percentile). Meanwhile, a northern stream longwave trough will be pressing south along the Front Range with a backdoor cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night. There are a lot of model differences as the Pacific low becomes absorbed into the northern stream wave. A secondary northern stream jet then attempts to carve out another low west of NM Wednesday while the backdoor cold front oozes southwest into eastern NM. Temps will be cold enough to support snow down to 8,000 ft in the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The front would serve as a more well-defined focus for higher QPF over northeast NM and the NBM certainly favors this area for >0.25".

Weather conditions Thursday thru Saturday will depend partially on how the upper level pattern evolves during the Wednesday transition. The trend is for a few showers and storms to persist over central and eastern NM as the northern stream trough becomes more of an influence along the Front Range. Extended model guidance is also suggesting a more amplified pattern will develop over western North America with a 590dm H5 ridge building along the CA coast. Forecast confidence will remain low until better model consistency and agreement occurs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail overnight. There is a very low chance (<10%) for fog formation in the area around Roswell, the Estancia Valley, the Gila region, and near KSRR after 4am. High clouds and high level turb will increase over western NM thru sunrise then spread to the entire region Sunday. A few high-based and gusty showers and thunderstorms will develop near the Cont Divide Sunday afternoon (10-20% chance) then move quickly east toward the central mt chain thru sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for the next 7 days. Rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" occurred around the higher terrain of Catron, Socorro, and Lincoln counties the past 24 hours with patchy amounts near 0.10" farther north along the Cont Divide into Cibola County. Today will be warmer and drier but with slightly stronger southwest breezes compared to Saturday. A couple showers may develop over western NM (10-20% chance) then move east toward the RGV with little to no rainfall and erratic gusty winds. Monday is still the day to watch for locally critical fire weather as stronger southwest winds coincide with patchy min RH values near 15%. Thicker clouds moving into the area ahead of the next Pacific system along with recent rainfall, lower RFTIs, and lower ERCs will help to decrease the overall risk. Rain and mountain snow chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the Pacific system crosses the area. Confidence is still low to moderate but the greatest chances for wetting precip will be along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps near the Cont Divide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 75 45 73 45 / 5 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 34 69 35 / 5 20 10 5 Cuba............................ 69 41 68 40 / 10 20 5 10 Gallup.......................... 72 38 69 36 / 10 10 0 10 El Morro........................ 69 42 66 38 / 20 20 0 20 Grants.......................... 73 38 71 40 / 10 20 0 10 Quemado......................... 69 42 69 41 / 20 10 0 20 Magdalena....................... 68 48 71 48 / 30 20 0 10 Datil........................... 66 43 66 43 / 20 10 0 10 Reserve......................... 73 40 72 40 / 10 5 0 20 Glenwood........................ 78 43 78 42 / 5 5 0 30 Chama........................... 64 33 62 32 / 10 30 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 67 47 69 46 / 5 20 5 5 Pecos........................... 68 42 70 41 / 5 10 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 40 65 39 / 10 20 5 5 Red River....................... 56 33 56 33 / 10 20 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 62 31 62 29 / 5 10 5 5 Taos............................ 69 36 70 35 / 5 20 5 5 Mora............................ 67 40 68 38 / 5 10 5 5 Espanola........................ 73 43 76 46 / 5 10 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 68 45 70 46 / 5 10 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 43 73 45 / 5 10 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 51 76 52 / 10 10 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 52 78 51 / 10 10 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 48 80 50 / 10 10 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 50 78 52 / 10 10 0 5 Belen........................... 77 45 81 49 / 20 20 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 76 50 80 51 / 10 10 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 76 45 80 47 / 10 20 0 5 Corrales........................ 77 50 80 52 / 10 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 76 46 80 49 / 20 20 0 5 Placitas........................ 71 50 74 51 / 10 20 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 75 50 79 52 / 10 10 0 5 Socorro......................... 76 51 83 53 / 20 20 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 68 46 71 46 / 10 10 0 10 Tijeras......................... 69 47 73 47 / 10 10 0 10 Edgewood........................ 70 43 73 45 / 10 10 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 39 75 43 / 10 10 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 68 43 70 43 / 10 10 0 5 Mountainair..................... 69 44 74 44 / 20 20 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 67 45 73 46 / 20 20 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 68 52 73 51 / 10 10 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 63 49 68 48 / 10 5 0 10 Capulin......................... 68 40 70 38 / 5 5 10 5 Raton........................... 72 39 74 41 / 5 5 5 0 Springer........................ 74 39 75 43 / 5 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 69 43 72 42 / 5 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 78 50 80 46 / 5 5 0 5 Roy............................. 73 45 75 47 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 51 84 53 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 50 79 51 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 53 86 52 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 76 51 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 77 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 75 48 85 54 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 52 88 56 / 5 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 73 49 80 52 / 10 5 0 5 Elk............................. 72 47 78 50 / 5 0 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.