textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 417 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

- Temperatures warm significantly this week, threatening record highs mid to late week in eastern and central New Mexico. This unusual warmth is forecast to persist into the first week of March.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

The warming trend continues today as ridging amplifies over the Intermountain West. High clouds streaming in from the northwest this morning will dissipate this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. A light southerly breeze will once again develop in eastern NM in response to the building ridge, with light winds elsewhere.

The ridge over the western CONUS will begin to flatten Tuesday, pushing stronger northwest winds aloft over New Mexico. 700 mb winds of 35 to 45 kts over the central mountain chain will induce the development of a lee side Low in the TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. Winds will approach Wind Advisory in the Central Highlands, but the high fire danger will be of greater concern. The downsloping wind will also soar temperatures in the eastern plains, with highs reaching into the 80s. There is an 80% chance that the high reaches 80F in Tucumcari on Tuesday and a 50% chance the the 80s reach as far north as Clayton. Daily records are currently forecast at a few sites such as Clovis and Portales among others.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

The jet stream will dip a bit further south into New Mexico on Wednesday. The stronger winds aloft will only translate to slightly stronger winds at the sfc compared to Tuesday, with breezes spreading across all of central and northern New Mexico. Temperatures will tick a few degrees higher with the compressional heating, with the warmest temps in the Pecos River Valley. There is even a 17% chance that Wednesday will be the first 90F day of the year for Roswell. A shortwave will send a backdoor front southward down the eastern plains Wednesday night, cooling temps 10 to 15 degrees across eastern NM, with slightly cooler temps in central and western areas as well. Temps trend back up late week as northwest flow remains draped over New Mexico. Record highs will be threatened each day in at least eastern New Mexico, and potentially central areas too by the weekend. These warm temperatures will contribute to the melting of the already poor snowpack and there is no snow in site to help replenish these losses.

Above normal 500 mb heights are favored to persist over the Intermountain West through the end of next week, although there is a low to moderate chance that eastern NM experiences some significant cooldowns with backdoor frontal passages. This is illustrated by the wide model spread in forecast high temperatures for eastern sites throughout next week. The difference is less stark in central and western areas since quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevent these frontal intrusions from making it past the central mountain chain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. High clouds will stream across the state from northwest to southeast, with clearing skies through the afternoon. Light winds are expected at most terminals today, with a light southerly breeze in the eastern plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

A light southerly breeze will develop in eastern New Mexico again today, with winds turning around to the west/northwest on Tuesday as dry northwest flow drapes itself across New Mexico. The downsloping breeze will increase temps and therefore decrease humidities, with minimum humidities in the single digits in the eastern plains. This combined with 20ft winds of 20 to 35 mph will likely create several hours of critical fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain. The longest duration of critical fire weather conditions is forecast for the Central Highlands where there could be up to 10 hours where Red Flag Criteria is met. At least localized critical fire weather conditions are likely in the same areas on Wednesday, however slightly higher humidities will limit the duration. Dry conditions with well-above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week into the weekend. This will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions in eastern NM each day. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are unlikely during this late week/weekend period, with winds being the main limiting factor.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 55 17 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 62 21 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 62 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 63 25 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 65 30 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 62 36 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 32 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 28 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 71 31 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 49 21 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 32 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 47 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 52 19 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 57 23 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 62 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 63 26 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 33 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 29 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 38 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 34 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 31 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 33 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 64 27 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 33 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 65 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 65 33 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 28 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 33 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 33 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 34 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 57 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 61 30 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 23 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 59 31 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 60 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 32 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 35 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 38 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 62 31 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 63 26 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 65 25 73 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 36 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 60 31 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 68 31 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 67 38 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 35 84 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 62 36 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 63 35 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 62 30 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 62 31 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 37 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 66 36 75 48 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for NMZ104-123-125-126.