textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mostly across the high terrain and nearby lower elevations. Overall storm coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Due to a better coverage of slow moving storms across east central NM and northwest TX from Fort Sumner to Dalhart, have increased PoPs across this area through 6 PM MDT. Flash Flood Warning in effect for Tucumcari until 16:45 MDT. Updated forecast grids and products are out.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A broad 592 to 593 dam upper high at 500 mb extends from New Mexico to Oklahoma with the centroid somewhere in far east central NM this afternoon. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will favor the southern high terrain today along with some airmass thunderstorms once again across northeast and east central NM. Overall storm motion will be slow and erratic initially with a slight jog to the north-northwest later in the afternoon. This storm motion should help direct storms west and away from the core of the Ruidoso burn scars. CAMs this morning were not enthused for storm development across the Sandia and Manzano Mountains, thus decreasing the chances for colliding outflow boundaries over ABQ and Santa Fe Metros. Once again, any storm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in low lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Storms should taper off around sunset with the loss of daytime heating, but the 12Z NAM wants to keep some isolated shower and storm activity going across southwest NM overnight, likely due to the upper low over the Pacific NW pulling up some higher moisture from Hurricane Marie east of Baja California.

The upper low over the Pacific NW finally moves inland to over the northern Rockies on Labor Day shifting the upper high east to over the central and southern Great Plains with the western flank still hanging on across eastern NM. The position of these two upper level features will help position and tighten the monsoon plume (containing moisture from Hurricane Marie) from southwest to northeast NM. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor the western and north central mountains with an overall storm motion to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph due to more brisk southwest flow from the base of the northern Rockies low. Storms will try to move in the upper and middle RGV during the late afternoon and early evening hours before tapering off late evening. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average areawide this afternoon with western and some central areas cooling slightly to near average Labor Day due to the slight increase in moisture and storm coverage.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The upper low exits northeast to the Dakotas and central Canada Tuesday flattening the upper high from eastern NM to central and southern Appalachians and strengthening to 597 dam at 500 mb over the Ozarks and central Mississippi River Valley. The monsoon plume and thus better diurnal shower and storm coverage will remain across western and central NM similar to Labor Day. CAMs do show a better coverage across the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday compared to Labor Day. The 597 dam 500 mb upper high looks to pivot back west to over New Mexico Wednesday due to the trough axis south of the Canadian low moving across the north central U.S. This trough looks to send a weak backdoor front through northeast and central NM ending up along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia and Manzano Mountains by midday Wednesday. This will result in a boost of moisture and lift and thus a better coverage of showers and storms across this part of the state.

The upper high continues shifting west to southern NV, western AZ, and southern CA weakening to 594 to 596 dam at 500 mb while the backdoor front mixes out across eastern NM Thursday. Overall storm coverage on Thursday does look lower than Wednesday as some drier air tries to move in from the north. Forecast confidence Friday into next weekend decreases rapidly as guidance differs on how quickly the upper high over the Desert SW breaks down ahead of a new upper low entering the Pacific NW. The ECMWF breaks down the upper high Friday, while the GFS, AI-GFS, and Canadian shift the 594 to 595 dam upper high back east over New Mexico. For the weekend, the AI-GFS and Canadian keep the upper high squarely overhead Saturday before shifting east next Sunday. The GFS shift the upper high over west Texas Saturday before shifting east to the south central U.S. Sunday as the upper low moves across the northern Rockies. Finally, the ECMWF has the upper low and associated troughing across the western U.S. more dominant next weekend. The ECMWF scenario would result in a higher coverage of showers and storms, especially across the higher elevations, during this period. The GFS would hold the higher shower and storm coverage until Sunday and the AI-GFS and Canadian would have a lower coverage of showers and storms across the higher terrain. Right now, the ensemble cluster guidance shows a slight lean (58% to 42%) to a mixture of the ECMWF and GFS scenarios. Highs through Friday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower elevations of western and central NM and mid to upper 90s across eastern NM which is slightly above average for early to mid September. Some potential cooling next weekend if the more dominant upper low/troughing scenario pans out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern high terrain with isolated showers and storms across northeast NM and on the Caprock. Showers and storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds up to 35 kts along with locally heavy rainfall across the southern high terrain. Showers and storms taper off around sunset lingering longest across the southwest mountains. Scattered to broken mid level and upper level clouds overnight into Monday morning across western, central and northern NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

No critical fire weather concerns with warm to hot temperatures across lower elevations this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of western and central NM and nearby lower elevations through mid next week. Storm coverage across the higher terrain, northeast and east central New Mexico looks highest on Wednesday due to a backdoor front entering northeast and east central New Mexico. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. Lower storm coverage Thursday and Friday due to the upper high being overhead and some drier air potentially moving in from the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 64 90 62 91 / 10 10 5 0 Dulce........................... 50 87 48 89 / 5 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 58 86 57 86 / 10 30 20 0 Gallup.......................... 57 86 56 88 / 10 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 56 83 54 83 / 20 40 30 30 Grants.......................... 59 86 57 86 / 10 60 40 30 Quemado......................... 58 82 57 84 / 30 80 30 60 Magdalena....................... 62 85 61 84 / 40 50 40 50 Datil........................... 57 83 57 81 / 30 80 50 40 Reserve......................... 57 87 56 89 / 30 70 40 60 Glenwood........................ 63 91 61 95 / 30 50 30 40 Chama........................... 52 79 51 83 / 5 10 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 64 84 62 84 / 10 40 30 30 Pecos........................... 59 86 58 87 / 20 20 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 83 56 84 / 0 20 10 10 Red River....................... 49 73 48 75 / 5 20 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 42 80 / 0 20 10 40 Taos............................ 57 87 55 88 / 0 20 10 5 Mora............................ 55 83 54 84 / 10 40 20 70 Espanola........................ 64 89 62 92 / 10 30 30 5 Santa Fe........................ 64 86 62 87 / 10 20 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 89 61 90 / 10 20 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 92 68 94 / 10 10 30 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 93 66 93 / 10 10 30 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 95 66 95 / 10 10 30 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 94 68 94 / 10 10 30 0 Belen........................... 66 95 64 94 / 10 10 40 0 Bernalillo...................... 69 95 67 95 / 10 20 30 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 94 63 94 / 10 5 40 0 Corrales........................ 69 94 67 95 / 10 10 30 0 Los Lunas....................... 67 94 65 94 / 10 10 40 0 Placitas........................ 68 92 66 91 / 10 20 30 5 Rio Rancho...................... 69 94 67 94 / 10 10 30 0 Socorro......................... 70 95 68 96 / 20 10 30 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 87 61 87 / 10 10 30 10 Tijeras......................... 64 88 62 88 / 10 10 30 10 Edgewood........................ 60 88 58 89 / 10 10 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 90 57 91 / 10 10 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 61 86 59 87 / 20 10 30 10 Mountainair..................... 60 88 59 88 / 10 5 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 60 88 59 88 / 10 5 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 63 88 63 90 / 10 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 57 82 57 82 / 5 20 5 50 Capulin......................... 59 88 59 86 / 20 20 10 40 Raton........................... 57 91 56 90 / 10 20 20 40 Springer........................ 59 94 58 92 / 20 20 20 40 Las Vegas....................... 58 87 57 87 / 20 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 94 68 94 / 20 10 10 10 Roy............................. 62 91 63 90 / 20 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 68 99 69 99 / 10 5 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 67 95 67 95 / 10 0 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 70 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 68 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 68 97 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 99 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 61 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 57 87 58 90 / 0 0 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.