textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A localized risk of rapid fire spread due to dry and gusty conditions will redevelop Tuesday afternoon over the northeast highlands of New Mexico.

- Widespread rain arrives late Thursday through early Saturday with several inches of high mountain snow accumulating in northern New Mexico. Winter travel conditions are likely in the northern mountains, especially Thursday night and Friday.

- Gusty east crosswinds will develop below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Westerly flow aloft will prevail again today with a weak shortwave trough skimming the NM-CO border. This will keep wind speeds at 700 mb in a 15 to 25 kt range. At the surface, a backdoor cold front is entering northeastern NM and will overtake most of the eastern plains through mid morning, seeping into portions of the upper to middle Rio Grande valley. Gusty winds will accompany the front along with substantial rises in dewpoints above the extremely low single digit and sub-zero readings (deg F) currently in place. A few batches of low stratus will be seen over eastern zones through mid to late morning, but as winds veer more southerly into the afternoon, these will fade away. This will actually set up a pseudo dryline just east of the central mountain chain with dewpoints in the 20's and 30's to the east versus the very low readings to the west. Where the southerly winds converge with the westerly flow, the surface gradient will have tightened, so some gusty conditions to 25 to 35 mph are forecast in this area over the northeast highlands. This will present some localized high fire danger, but otherwise seasonable temperatures and generally moderate (15 to 25 mph) breezes will prevail today.

After retreating some this afternoon, the front will gain a second push, advancing farther southwest into NM tonight into Thursday. By this time, a pair of upper level troughs will be converging, a former low over the eastern Pacific that will be ushered over the Baja via the subtropical jet and a weaker shortwave that will close in on the Four Corners by way of the polar jet. These upper level features will continue to draw a moist easterly low layer flow into NM with enough upslope, moisture advection, and upper dynamics to generate showers and stratiform rain, first over northeastern zones before spreading southwestward. The cool, moist airmass arriving from the east northeast will be stable, and will not support much in the way of convection other than a few isolated cells. Rainfall is projected to turn widespread across the eastern half of NM into Thursday night. A few stray high-based showers or storms will struggle to develop west of the Rio Grande, but moisture advection will not really transpire there until Thursday night when the east wind spills beyond the central mountain chain.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Into Friday, the subtropical perturbation will cross over southern NM and Old Mexico into west TX, as another Four Corners trough merges and deepens with its predecessor. PWATs will continue to rise (0.4 to 0.7 inch with highest values in the east) Friday, and precipitation will persist, particularly in east central zones with additional development in western to north central zones. The cool, moist, and stable conditions in the east will keep stratiform rainfall there while several inches of wet, late season snow stack up on the northern mountain peaks. Western zones will have a bit more instability to work with (LI's of -1 to -3 C), supporting a few convective cells with isolated higher rainfall rates. Showers and a few storms would continue over western to central zones Friday night, but would turn more scattered to sparse into Saturday as the Four Corners trough loses organization and strength. Overall, the best prospects for 1.0 inch or more will reside along and east of the central mountain chain with 0.1 to 0.3 inch being more common in western zones through Saturday. The projected snow totals over the northern mountains have not altered much with latest model guidance, and 5 to 15 inches of wet, heavy snow still seem reasonable for most of the northern mountains with the Sangre de Cristos being the beneficiaries of the highest totals. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this latter range to account for upcoming wintry travel impacts, particularly above 9,000 feet.

Although a ridge of high pressure is slated to overlay the southern Rockies on Sunday, residual moisture and modest instability looks sufficient for a few showers and storms to redevelop. Precipitation chances would be low on Monday, but isolated to scattered showers and storms would favor the northern zones as the next upstream upper low comes into northwestern AZ. The orientation, track, and speed of this upper low are still getting hashed out by model differences, but deterministic and ensemble means point toward precipitation favoring northern NM zones Tuesday onward through next week. Guidance also puts higher probabilities of near to slightly below normal temperatures across the forecast area with indications that winds may increase again Tuesday, pending the track of the low.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Winds have settled over most of northern and central New Mexico just prior to midnight. However, a cold front has entered northeastern areas and will stir up gusty conditions again as it advances farther south and west through Wednesday morning. The front will also spill into portions of the upper to middle Rio Grande valley with gusts of 20 to 25 kt through dawn and the mid morning hours. A few low stratus clouds will also accompany the front, leading to isolated areas of MVFR ceilings in eastern New Mexico through this time. Low clouds will erode away into the early afternoon with winds veering in direction over the eastern half of the state. Gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be common in the afternoon with northeast highland areas (KLVS to KRTN) observing highest gusts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A backdoor cold front is pushing into eastern NM zones this morning with breezy conditions accompanying. The front is advecting moisture into eastern zones with significant dewpoint rises being observed. This will boost humidity enough to keep critical fire weather at bay for most of the eastern plains today. However, a lee-side surface trough will develop in the late afternoon with veering winds in the plains leading to a convergence of southerly and westerly flow near the I-25 corridor (northeast highlands from Las Vegas to Raton). Dewpoints will fall again in this area, and this will induce marginally or locally critical conditions, as higher gusts of 30 to 35 mph will also be juxtaposed.

Northern and central NM is then on track to catch a welcome break from critical fire weather Thursday and Friday, as a pair of troughs aloft move overhead and a cool, moist airmass enters the state from the northeast. This will yield a widespread soaking rain event for much of the eastern half of NM along with hefty, wet snow in the northern mountains. The western half of NM will not fare as well, but should still observe wetting rain of 0.1 to 0.3 inch in many locales. Wind concerns will mostly be confined to an easterly gap/canyon wind event Thursday (particularly in the evening), but the rising humidity should offset any fire weather concerns. Precipitation will decrease in coverage into Saturday, Sunday, and early next week, but will not fully diminish. Lighter winds and considerably higher dewpoints will linger into Sunday. Breezes could start to increase again from the southwest on Monday due to an upstream low, but widespread fire weather concerns are not foreseen at this time. This could start to change into Tuesday, as a dry slot and stronger winds begin working in from the southwest, however there are large uncertainties with regards to the track of next week's low pressure system.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 71 40 70 41 / 0 0 5 20 Dulce........................... 68 28 66 34 / 0 0 30 50 Cuba............................ 68 36 66 37 / 0 0 20 70 Gallup.......................... 69 34 68 32 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 66 36 65 35 / 0 0 20 40 Grants.......................... 71 34 70 38 / 0 0 20 50 Quemado......................... 70 39 67 38 / 0 0 20 40 Magdalena....................... 73 47 69 42 / 0 0 20 60 Datil........................... 70 42 66 39 / 0 0 20 50 Reserve......................... 76 37 73 40 / 0 0 30 40 Glenwood........................ 79 42 77 45 / 0 0 30 50 Chama........................... 61 30 60 29 / 0 0 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 68 45 64 37 / 0 0 50 80 Pecos........................... 68 39 61 35 / 0 10 70 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 36 61 31 / 10 20 70 90 Red River....................... 55 30 48 25 / 20 30 80 90 Angel Fire...................... 61 25 52 28 / 10 30 90 90 Taos............................ 69 32 65 33 / 0 20 70 90 Mora............................ 68 34 56 32 / 0 20 80 90 Espanola........................ 76 42 71 41 / 0 5 50 80 Santa Fe........................ 69 44 64 38 / 0 5 60 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 42 66 40 / 0 0 50 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 50 73 44 / 0 0 30 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 47 74 46 / 0 0 30 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 46 77 48 / 0 0 20 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 49 75 46 / 0 0 20 80 Belen........................... 81 44 77 48 / 0 0 20 70 Bernalillo...................... 79 47 75 45 / 0 0 30 80 Bosque Farms.................... 81 42 77 47 / 0 0 20 70 Corrales........................ 80 47 77 46 / 0 0 20 80 Los Lunas....................... 81 44 77 48 / 0 0 20 70 Placitas........................ 74 48 70 43 / 0 0 30 80 Rio Rancho...................... 79 48 75 45 / 0 0 20 80 Socorro......................... 84 50 79 48 / 0 0 20 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 44 67 38 / 0 0 40 80 Tijeras......................... 72 44 69 40 / 0 0 40 80 Edgewood........................ 73 39 68 38 / 0 0 40 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 74 34 69 37 / 0 0 40 80 Clines Corners.................. 69 39 60 34 / 0 0 50 90 Mountainair..................... 73 42 69 39 / 0 0 40 80 Gran Quivira.................... 73 44 69 40 / 0 0 40 80 Carrizozo....................... 76 50 71 44 / 0 0 30 80 Ruidoso......................... 70 48 64 39 / 0 0 40 80 Capulin......................... 60 33 44 31 / 40 60 90 90 Raton........................... 66 35 49 34 / 40 50 90 90 Springer........................ 68 38 53 35 / 20 40 90 90 Las Vegas....................... 68 37 56 34 / 0 10 80 90 Clayton......................... 66 39 50 36 / 20 60 80 90 Roy............................. 68 39 51 35 / 20 40 90 90 Conchas......................... 77 44 58 41 / 5 20 70 90 Santa Rosa...................... 74 44 59 40 / 0 5 60 90 Tucumcari....................... 77 46 58 42 / 5 20 70 90 Clovis.......................... 76 47 60 41 / 5 5 60 90 Portales........................ 78 47 61 43 / 5 5 50 90 Fort Sumner..................... 78 47 64 43 / 0 5 50 90 Roswell......................... 84 54 74 50 / 0 0 40 80 Picacho......................... 80 49 69 45 / 0 0 40 80 Elk............................. 81 48 71 42 / 0 0 40 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for NMZ213>215-227.