textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 509 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico through at least Tuesday. Record heat likely on Monday in much of western and central New Mexico.

- Isolated showers and storms today and Monday will become scattered Tuesday through the end of the week. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Yesterday's convection aided by a northerly jet streak has pushed moisture southward into Mexico and dry air is working its way in behind it. This will result in sparse convective activity today, especially for early August. Showers and a few storms will favor the southwest mountains, with lesser coverage over the northern mountains. This will make it a hot, sunny day in most areas, with high temperatures approaching daily records.

The center of the monsoon high will shift eastward on Monday, centering itself over western NM. It will also bring some dry air with it so shower and storm coverage will only be isolated once again. 500 mb heights are forecast to be around 595 dam at the most, but the drier air (dewpoints in the 30s and 40s) will allow temperatures to warm quite a bit during the afternoon hours. High temperatures are currently forecast to break daily records in Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Los Alamos, and Farmington among others on Monday. Remarkably, August record highs will be challenged in Farmington and Albuquerque as well. Much of western and northern NM will have Major HeatRisk and so Heat Advisories were issued for much of these areas. Despite high temps in the low 100s, Heat Advisories were not issued for eastern NM, where the criteria is a tad higher. The dry air will allow for a large diurnal temperature fluctuation, so most areas should be able to cool off nicely Monday night, with lows generally in the 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The monsoon high remains in place over western NM on Tuesday where temps will once again threaten records. It will be a tad cooler across the northeast thanks to the passage of a weak backdoor front. Moist, upslope flow in the wake of the front will increase the coverage of convection along the central mountain chain and eventually central NM during the evening hours. The monsoon high will slowly shift off to the northwest mid to late week, allowing for modest moisture increases across central and southern New Mexico. Storm coverage will trend up slightly, with scattered coverage each afternoon and evening, favoring the high terrain of western and northern NM. PWATs at KABQ will hold steady right around the seasonal average (~0.9"), with slightly less moisture across the northwest where storm coverage will be less. From Wednesday onward, temperatures will drop below record levels, but it will still remain hot with temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above average.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 509 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

SHRA/TS over southwest NM will move southwest around 10KT thru sunset. The stronger cells will be capable of heavy rain, hail, strong outflow winds, and frequent lightning strikes. Skies will clear all areas overnight with light winds. Another sparse crop of storms will develop around the high terrain Monday but with a focus more over northeast NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next weekend. Near record to record heat is expected the next couple of days as the monsoon high shifts into western New Mexico. This will also bring unusually dry air into the western half of the state, with afternoon humidities generally between 10 and 15 percent. Temperatures drop slightly and humidities increase slightly from Tuesday onward, but it will still be hotter and drier than normal for the middle of monsoon season.

Isolated storms today and Monday become scattered Tuesday onward. The southwest high terrain will have the best chances for rain most days, with much spottier wetting rainfall in the lower elevations of central and western NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 101 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 56 96 56 97 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 61 95 61 94 / 10 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 60 97 60 96 / 0 0 5 5 El Morro........................ 58 92 58 92 / 5 5 10 20 Grants.......................... 61 96 61 95 / 5 5 5 20 Quemado......................... 62 93 61 92 / 5 5 20 20 Magdalena....................... 66 93 65 93 / 5 10 10 20 Datil........................... 59 90 60 90 / 20 20 20 40 Reserve......................... 60 97 60 96 / 10 30 20 50 Glenwood........................ 63 100 64 99 / 30 40 20 70 Chama........................... 55 90 55 90 / 10 10 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 66 92 66 91 / 10 20 0 30 Pecos........................... 59 95 60 90 / 10 10 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 92 56 89 / 10 10 5 40 Red River....................... 50 83 50 81 / 10 5 5 70 Angel Fire...................... 43 87 42 82 / 10 10 10 70 Taos............................ 60 95 60 93 / 10 10 5 30 Mora............................ 56 93 56 86 / 10 20 10 60 Espanola........................ 67 100 67 98 / 10 10 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 95 62 92 / 10 10 0 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 97 63 95 / 10 10 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 101 69 98 / 10 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 101 72 99 / 10 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 104 70 101 / 5 0 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 103 71 100 / 5 0 0 5 Belen........................... 69 103 69 101 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 69 104 69 101 / 10 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 67 103 67 100 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 69 104 70 101 / 10 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 66 103 66 100 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 68 100 69 97 / 10 5 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 70 103 71 100 / 10 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 73 104 73 103 / 0 0 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 96 65 91 / 10 5 0 30 Tijeras......................... 65 97 65 94 / 10 0 0 30 Edgewood........................ 63 98 63 94 / 10 5 5 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 99 58 95 / 10 5 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 62 95 63 89 / 20 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 64 97 64 94 / 5 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 63 94 63 93 / 5 5 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 69 94 70 96 / 0 10 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 62 87 63 88 / 0 20 0 30 Capulin......................... 60 93 59 82 / 10 30 20 40 Raton........................... 56 97 57 88 / 10 30 20 50 Springer........................ 57 99 58 90 / 10 20 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 58 95 58 88 / 10 20 10 30 Clayton......................... 66 100 67 90 / 0 10 20 5 Roy............................. 64 98 65 89 / 10 20 20 10 Conchas......................... 70 103 71 98 / 10 5 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 102 68 96 / 10 10 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 104 71 100 / 5 0 10 0 Clovis.......................... 67 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 68 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 102 72 100 / 5 0 10 0 Roswell......................... 71 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 67 98 68 97 / 0 20 5 0 Elk............................. 63 93 63 94 / 0 20 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ201-205-207- 211-212-217>221.