textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

- A Pacific system will move east across northern Mexico and bring increased cloud cover and low chances for light precipitation today, especially along and south of Interstate 40.

- Otherwise, fair weather conditions and above average temperatures are forecast through the middle of next week.

- A pattern change to cooler, windy, and unsettled conditions is in store for late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 106 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A low pressure system is west of the upper Baja peninsula, and this feature remains cut-off from the polar jet with sluggish movement to the southeast. This low is spreading diffluent upper flow into the desert southwest with mid to high level moisture accompanying. The low will not make much headway through this afternoon, but top-down moistening will commence with weak shortwave perturbations arriving, particularly over the southern half of NM where a few showers will gradually take shape and continue into the evening. Large surface dewpoint depressions in the early to mid afternoon will cause initial hydrometeors to evaporate with virga being prevalent before the boundary layer moistens up enough to support a few light rain showers. Snow levels will remain quite high with only elevations above 9,500 ft expected to observe snow through this evening. Any precipitation amounts will be light, generally amounting to a few sprinkles to a few hundredths of an inch through the evening. Today's high temperatures will run 10 to 20 degrees above normal, hence the high snow levels. Precipitation is modeled to wane and disperse by midnight as the aforementioned shortwave energy exits NM.

Into Sunday, the upper low will cross the central Baja Peninsula with a thinning of clouds over NM as faint subsidence and drying aloft builds in the wake of the departing shortwave energy. A weak northerly wind shift will fall upon the NM plains, reducing temperatures by 3 to 6 degrees, but otherwise the above average warmth (generally 10 to 20 degrees above) will persist with dry conditions prevailing.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 106 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Into Monday, the upper low will creep into the middle Gulf of CA. A weak lee-side surface trough will develop in northeastern NM with dry conditions holding across the forecast area, as the better dynamics and diffluence aloft will remain too far south. Yet another day of above average temperatures can be expected. The low will then finally gain some eastward motion, trekking across Mexico Monday night before ejecting into TX on Tuesday. This will open the opportunity for a backdoor cold front to slide into eastern NM, setting temperatures back 5 to 10 degrees on Tuesday, but not enough to fall below climatology for early February.

The west southwesterly flow aloft will then increase going into Wednesday with a lee-side trough developing, so breezy to locally windy conditions will make a return. A similar scenario would likely persist into Thursday, except that another backdoor cold front is slated to enter northeastern NM which could disrupt the wind field while still producing a new area of stronger post frontal winds as isobars pack near the boundary. The model consensus for upstream upper level perturbations also begins to reduce Thursday and beyond. It does appear that the stronger westerlies would be prone to introduce another shortwave trough or two within the late Thursday to Saturday time frame, but timing and orientation from deterministic models still have large disagreements this far out. The long range ensemble mean among the GEFS/ENS/GEPS suggest a singular shortwave passage around midday Friday, and blended POP/QPF guidance from the NBM is steered toward this with very light amounts. A backdoor cold front in eastern zones could assist with upslope, diabatic cooling, and general precipitation production as well.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Mid and high level clouds will thicken and lower while spreading northeast tonight. Areas along and south of I-40 within central and western NM will see broken cigs near 9,000ft by early to mid afternoon Saturday. There is a 10-30% chance for SHRA mainly in the southern high terrain however a few gusty sprinkles or SHRA may make it as far north as KABQ/KAEG around 5pm. Clouds will clear slowly from west to east Saturday evening. Winds outside precip will remain relatively light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mostly dry conditions will prevail over the next several days with above normal temperatures and low afternoon humidity (commonly dropping to 15 to 25 percent). A few rain showers will move into the southern half of NM today and this evening, but no wetting or soaking of fuels is expected with amounts of generally just a few hundredths of an inch or less. The next opportunity for rain/snow will not come until late next week. Winds will not be overly strong, but some occasional periods of moderate breezes can be expected through early next week with more widespread breezy to locally windy conditions arriving Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 59 28 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 59 22 60 21 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 26 58 26 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 58 21 60 20 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 55 28 58 26 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 59 23 61 21 / 10 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 27 59 27 / 20 5 5 0 Magdalena....................... 56 34 59 35 / 30 10 5 0 Datil........................... 50 29 57 30 / 30 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 59 28 66 27 / 40 10 10 0 Glenwood........................ 63 33 70 31 / 50 5 10 0 Chama........................... 52 23 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 33 57 32 / 0 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 57 31 59 29 / 5 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 26 54 26 / 0 5 5 0 Red River....................... 50 21 50 19 / 0 5 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 52 18 52 16 / 0 5 10 0 Taos............................ 57 23 59 22 / 0 5 5 0 Mora............................ 60 29 57 26 / 0 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 62 28 65 26 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 31 59 32 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 31 61 29 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 35 63 38 / 10 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 36 65 36 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 33 67 33 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 34 65 34 / 5 10 0 0 Belen........................... 63 30 67 30 / 10 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 34 66 33 / 5 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 30 67 30 / 10 20 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 33 66 33 / 5 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 31 67 31 / 10 20 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 35 61 35 / 5 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 34 66 34 / 5 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 35 68 35 / 20 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 33 57 33 / 10 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 58 34 60 34 / 10 20 5 0 Edgewood........................ 60 31 61 30 / 10 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 62 28 62 25 / 5 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 57 31 57 31 / 5 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 59 32 62 32 / 10 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 61 32 62 32 / 20 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 37 65 37 / 30 20 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 57 37 60 37 / 20 20 5 5 Capulin......................... 62 32 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 64 31 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 66 31 63 23 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 62 31 60 28 / 0 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 71 41 65 37 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 67 36 62 30 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 74 38 70 32 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 38 65 33 / 0 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 74 38 71 33 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 41 70 38 / 0 10 0 0 Portales........................ 74 42 71 37 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 38 69 34 / 0 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 41 70 37 / 5 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 69 40 68 38 / 10 10 0 0 Elk............................. 68 37 68 35 / 10 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.