textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Overall pleasant weather and temperatures are forecast through at least Sunday, with continued dry conditions.

- A pattern change to cooler, windy, and unsettled conditions is in store for mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1133 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

It's a very pleasant winter day around central and northern New Mexico, with mostly clear skies, light winds, and above normal temperatures. A Rex block is set up over the western CONUS, with the center of the H5 ridge over The Great Basin and a Low off the west coast of Baja California. The pattern changes little Friday as the upper-level ridge gradually deamplifies in response to the deepening of the Low off the west coast. High temperatures tick upward a few more degrees Friday afternoon, with temperatures reaching to 10-20 degrees above seasonal normals. High clouds will gradually increase from the west through the afternoon, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies still prevailing.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1133 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

The upcoming pattern change will be set in motion this weekend as the slow-moving closed Pacific Low begins to move inland. Moisture advection from the southwest will increase PWATs and cloud cover, with most of the moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. There is a low chance that the top-down saturation and upper level lift combine to create a few showers across southwest and central NM Saturday afternoon and night, but sub-cloud evaporation should limit any light flurries or showers to the high peaks.

Deterministic models are in quite good agreement with regard to the timing/trajectory of the closed Low as it move eastward across the desert of northern Mexico late this weekend into early next week. This will keep almost all of the precipitation south of the border, but an intensifying jet stream over the Great Basin will force this Low to open as longwave troughing replaces the ridging over the Intermountain West. This synoptic pattern change will favor increased rain/snow chances, cooler temperatures, and increased wind speeds. How quickly this pattern change occurs remains a question mark, with models differing on how quickly this troughing will develop. GEFS and GEPS members favor the quicker development of this longwave troughing pattern, whereas the ENS has a slower transition and keeps the axis of the trough further west (translating to lower precip. chances across New Mexico).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions continue throughout the TAF period. A drainage wind will likely set up near high terrain, creating a few breezes between 10-15kts, mostly near and around KSAF. A lesser drainage wind is expected near KFMN, with light winds elsewhere. As of 05z, a couple of PIREPs have denoted light to moderate turbulence around FL350 to 400, mainly along and west of the central mountain chain. A shield of high clouds are likely to begin building into much of New Mexico by 12z, expanding across the state throughout the day to the tune of SCT and BKN ceilings. Winds turn to the south and southeast across eastern NM in the afternoon, mainly after 18z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1133 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Poor ventilation will be the main fire weather concern today and tomorrow thanks to upper-level riding aloft. This ridge will begin to break down this weekend as an upper-Low off the coast of Baja California moves inland into northern Mexico. This will result in ventilation improvements Saturday, particularly in the northern mountains and eastern plains. A few light showers may develop over the southwest and south-central high terrain Saturday, however wetting precipitation not expected.

Poor ventilation returns Sunday, with improvements expected early next week as a longwave troughing pattern begins to develop over the western US. This will result in increasing southwest to west winds and higher precipitation chances. Light lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers will favor western and northern areas Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 27 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 21 62 24 60 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 25 58 30 58 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 19 61 23 60 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 28 60 32 58 / 0 0 5 10 Grants.......................... 21 63 24 61 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 27 62 32 59 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 33 61 39 59 / 0 0 0 30 Datil........................... 29 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 26 66 31 65 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 29 70 34 69 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 24 55 26 52 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 32 56 36 55 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 29 60 31 58 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 26 49 28 46 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 16 56 15 52 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 21 60 25 58 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 28 62 30 60 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 24 63 28 63 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 33 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 62 41 62 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 28 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 31 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 24 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 20 Bernalillo...................... 31 64 36 65 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 24 64 31 65 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 31 64 36 65 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 26 63 33 64 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 34 60 38 60 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 31 63 36 64 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 29 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 34 58 37 58 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 27 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 64 26 62 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 29 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 29 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 29 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 32 64 38 63 / 0 0 0 30 Ruidoso......................... 34 61 39 59 / 0 0 0 30 Capulin......................... 29 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 64 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 22 65 24 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 27 65 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 36 66 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 27 72 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 29 69 33 69 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 29 74 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 72 37 72 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 33 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 28 70 32 71 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 29 68 35 68 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 33 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 31 71 37 69 / 0 0 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.