textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread continues through Monday with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico.

- Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust today and Monday afternoon.

- There is a moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through this evening across the eastern plains due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

A 140 kt jet is diving out of British Columbia into WA/OR/NV, allowing an upper low to take shape over the Great Basin. This is causing the flow aloft to strengthen over NM from the southwest with another lee-side surface low deepening over the northeast corner of NM, a setup for windy conditions that are already transpiring.

The low will work into southeast UT tonight with southwest winds aloft continuing to strengthen more over NM. While several locations will observe a decrease in wind speeds this evening, the winds will be rather erratic into the overnight, exhibiting ebbs, flows and periodic surges in speed, especially near high terrain zones and over western NM as the boundary layer fights to decouple. The 700 mb winds are modeled to peak in speed between 09-15Z with speeds of 50- 55 kt overlaying the western and southern high terrain of NM. Speeds will then relax to a 25 to 40 kt range through the day Monday. This poses concerns for damaging gusts, and a High Wind Watch has been issued to account for this, but it will be a hair-splitting close call. Several adjacent zones in northeast to east central NM will also likely need Wind Advisories to account for surface gusts to 50 mph. The upper low will eject eastward, opening into a wave Monday, and a few showers and thunderstorms will accompany, only grazing our northern zones briefly in the morning Monday. Temperatures will cool a few to several degrees area-wide, falling below normal in western zones while eastern ones lower to just slightly above average.

Monday night, the surface low will get replaced by rapid pressure rises, courtesy of a backdoor front. This front will overtake the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, but also a welcome rise in dewpoints.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

The backdoor cold front will cause temperatures to run cooler in eastern zones Tuesday with all zones generally running near to slightly below normal for daytime highs. Surface winds would veer in the plains, turning southeasterly by late afternoon while breezy west southwesterlies prevail in western zones. Where these areas converge, including the Rio Grande valley and central mountain chain, gusty conditions (25 to 35 mph) are being modeled. However, speeds will still be drastically lower than previous days.

With surface high pressure continuing to build into the central plains, an easterly moisture push is still slated for Wednesday with considerable rises in dewpoints. This will cause much of the eastern plains (and potentially the east slopes of central mountain chain) to destabilize with sufficient juice for storms. This will sufficiently initiate storms, some of which will turn strong to severe across eastern NM. Per usual this time of year, there are considerable boundary layer parameterization differences amongst models with the bullish NAM carrying the moisture much farther west than the more bearish GFS. Scattered storms would be possible again in the eastern plains on Thursday with the moisture potentially sloshing a bit farther east, in part due to a central Rockies shortwave which may also enhance the forcing and initiation. The moisture would attempt to hold on over the eastern zones into Friday as well, but may be thinning and mixing out some as temperatures start to warm back closer to normal. Upper level features become less prominent and poorly defined into next weekend, making the fate of moisture in the east a bit ambiguous. Blended guidance gradually reduces dewpoints day-by-day, reducing storm chances while seasonable temperatures prevail area-wide.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Winds and overnight low level wind shear are the primary aviation weather hazards today through Monday. Winds will generally be strongest over the south central and northeastern areas of New Mexico, particularly over and near high terrain locations with the highest gusts occurring Monday. Gusts of 30 to 40 kt today will increase to 30 to near 50 kt on Monday. Winds will reduce in speed at sunset over lower elevation and valley locations tonight, but will remain gusty over many remaining areas through the night with low level wind shear present in the lowest few thousand feet of airspace. Areas of blowing dust will also develop, likely being more widespread with lower visibility (generally reaching MVFR status of 3 to 5 miles) on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

A fire weather growing pattern continues to build with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions today and Monday.

Today's critical to extreme event, courtesy of an upper low deepening over the Great Basin. This is sending increased southwesterly flow aloft into NM while another deep lee-side surface low takes shape. Critical to locally extreme (particularly in northeast to east central zones) fire weather conditions will persist through the mid evening. Winds will be extremely challenging to pinpoint during the late evening to early morning hours, as the boundary layer will be struggling to decouple while winds aloft keep on strengthening. Many locations may reduce below critical wind speed thresholds by mid evening, but will still be gusty with very poor overnight humidity recovery. Similar to last night, this will pose concerns for a continued overnight threat for fire spread with ongoing fires.

Within a couple hours of sunrise, the stronger winds aloft will start mixing down to the surface Monday, quickly escalating the threat for critical to extreme fire behavior. The strongest winds still appear to be focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts will reach 55 to 60 mph. Most of the eastern plains look to plummet to less than 10% RH Monday afternoon, as temperatures will only cool a couple to a few degrees. Consequently, the Fire Wx Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Monday.

A backdoor cold front will offer cooler temperatures to eastern NM going into Monday night and Tuesday. While gusty conditions will accompany the front with shifting wind direction, increased dewpoints will arrive with speeds reducing below critical thresholds through the day Tuesday. It will also be breezy in western zones Tuesday with southwesterlies and southeasterlies converging over central NM where wind speeds will be enhanced. Some gusts of 30 to 35 mph will introduce marginal to spotty critical conditions on Tuesday, namely in Rio Grande valley and central highlands/mountains.

Into the remainder of the work week, attention will turn to eastern zones where low layer moisture will make a return with a dryline potentially setting up each afternoon, Wednesday through Friday. This will increase storm chances in eastern zones with scattered wetting rain footprints Wednesday before decreasing each subsequent day. Western to central zones will tend to stay dry only high-based cumulus and virga. Fortunately, much lighter winds aloft will lead to much lower prevailing wind speeds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 68 38 73 / 5 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 41 63 29 71 / 0 50 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 67 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 42 67 33 73 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 42 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 42 71 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 43 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 45 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 42 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 57 29 65 / 0 50 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 52 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 44 72 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 63 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 35 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 33 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 43 67 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 44 69 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 46 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 82 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 48 82 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 49 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 55 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 52 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 50 75 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 78 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 77 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 56 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 72 30 63 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 42 74 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 45 77 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 72 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 52 82 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 51 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 56 87 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 55 84 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 58 90 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 55 89 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 56 91 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 88 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 92 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 83 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 53 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104>106-109- 121-123>126.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ212-214-215-223-227>229.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for NMZ226.