textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Elevated risk of fire spread in eastern New Mexico for the remainder of today and again Thursday due to very dry conditions and breezy southwest winds. Light rain and snow showers will favor western New Mexico both days, with minor accumulations in the high terrain.

- Increased chances for lower elevation rain and snow and potentially significant mountain snow Friday through the weekend. Minor to moderate travel impacts likely in northern and eastern areas. Confidence is high for widespread wetting precipitation.

- Cold, with near record low max temperatures for eastern New Mexico on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the state will be 15 to 35 degrees below normal.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns persist through the remainder of today and again on Thursday across eastern NM where gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity values persist. Meanwhile, light showers will persist across northwest and north central New Mexico. A more significant round of precipitation is expected for eastern NM Friday through Saturday, though western areas won't miss out entirely. A mix of rain and snow will be welcomed across lower elevations while significant snowfall returns to the Northern Mountains. Much colder temperatures are in store for Saturday, especially across eastern NM. After this weekend, much quieter conditions are in store with a gradual warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A robust upper level jet streak of about 140 kts in strength and oriented from SW to NE across New Mexico, will continue to shift eastward. This feature has lead to a persistent band of upper level cloud cover for a large part of our south-central and southeastern areas. As a result, nudged temperatures high temperatures down a couple of degrees for locations along the southern half of the eastern plains. Cumulus fields continue to develop across the state, but with such dry conditions at the surface, only the occasional virga shower is expected. Winds throughout the state look to remain light to breezy for most of the state through the end of the day. Compared to the rest of the state, there will be stronger winds for southern areas such as Chaves County, where higher speeds aloft may mix down to the surface. There is also a low chance (<20%) of light rain for far eastern New Mexico tonight. There may be enough forcing aloft with the right entrance region of the upper level jet streak in southwestern New Mexico to create some showers. However, recent guidance has backed off on rain chances, as enough Gulf moisture doesn't seem to make its way this far west.

An upper level disturbance will push through northwestern New Mexico tonight ahead of a digging trough in the Great Basin. A vorticity lobe associated with this disturbance should create enough forcing to develop some snow showers along the Four Corners region from Gallup to Farmington. There is less confidence in the development of convective storms as CAPE values will be a meager 250 J/kg and DCAPE looks to be less than 400 J/kg. Nevertheless, a lightning strike or two is not out of the question, along with the possibility of some gusty and erratic outflows. Liquid equivalent accumulations look to be light at around a tenth or less, with chances diminishing heading into the later morning hours. A couple inches of snow are likely to accumulate over the peaks of the Chuska Mountains.

Wind speeds look to pick up a bit over eastern areas on Thursday afternoon as a sub 1000 mb lee side sfc trough develops in southeastern Colorado. Stronger southwest gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible for northeastern areas such as Clayton. As the trough over the Great Basin digs southeast into the Desert Southwest, it starts to interact with some Gulf moisture. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, a line of showers looks to develop over southeastern parts of the region. There is still some uncertainty on exact rainfall amounts and rates, but there is about a 50% chance of parts of Chaves and Roosevelt counties to get more than a quarter inch. Once again, there is also the potential for the occasional rumble of thunder and gusty outflow.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Much needed and much wanted precipitation is in store for Friday through the weekend. Will it be winter's last gasp? Time will tell, but snow is on the way.

A 552-553dam H5 low over southern AZ Friday morning will track eastward across southern NM through Saturday, slowly filling as it does so. At the surface, low level easterly flow will pull in Gulf moisture to eastern NM on Friday. Then, a potent cold front will slide southward across the plains and westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Friday night into Saturday morning. This will result in an active Friday through Saturday period. Initially, lift associated with the low will bring showers to portions of western NM, while the upper level lift will combine with the low level upslope and moisture gradient to produce additional shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern NM. Mid level lapse rates between 8-9C and LI's between 0 and -2 should be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, at minimum. H7 temps through much of Friday will remain around -1 to -3C, so snow levels will be around 6.5-7kft. However, as the backdoor front plows southward Friday night, H7 temps will fall between -4 and -10C. Fortunately, this means there should not be any freezing rain or sleet in the transition, and rain will just become snow. Weak upslope will also aid in snow production across the Central Mountain Chain. Confidence is high that widespread precipitation will develop along and behind the front across eastern NM. While model spread is high for total QPF (10th percentile between one and two tenths and 90th percentile between 1 and 1.35") the most likely range looks to be between 0.5 and 1 inch. As the front pushes through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, strong upslope will also be noted across the east slopes of the Jemez and Tusas Mountains as well as some west central mountain areas as well. At this time, between 6 and 12 inches of snow looks increasingly likely across the Northern Mountains and areas along the NM/CO border near Raton Pass, with locally higher amounts up to 18 inches on the highest peaks. Across eastern NM and the west central and southwest mountains, most areas will see between 1 and 4 inches. Little to no accumulation is currently expected in the Albuquerque Metro area. Part of this is because it will mostly be too warm, but the front will also bring strong gap winds to the ABQ metro area. Strong winds are also expected behind the front across eastern NM, which will result in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. Much of the precipitation will wind down Saturday night, though a few showers will linger on Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday across eastern NM will be up to 35 degrees below normal on Saturday thanks to the front, persistent cloud cover and precipitation. This will near record low maximum temperatures for the date in many areas. The warming trend will begin on Sunday despite meridional flow. The trend will continue through mid week as drier northwest flow takes shape.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A slow-moving upper level low near the Four Corners region tonight will continue spreading a deep layer of southwest winds across NM thru Thursday. A band of mid and high clouds in association with a subtropical speed max over southeast NM will generate isolated SHRA and moderate icing across that area thru sunrise. Farther north and west toward the upper low, SHRA/SN will continue moving northeast from near KGUP to KFMN thru sunrise with another area of moderate icing and local MVFR cigs. Southwest winds will increase Thursday across the entire region as a dry slot spreads over more of central and eastern NM. Gusts of 20 to 30KT will be common with localized BLDU, especially around KROW. Another batch of SHRA/SN will develop over northwest NM after 1pm then move quickly north and east with locally gusty winds and brief precip.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Cloud cover over southern and eastern New Mexico has kept winds lighter and curbed the critical fire weather threat for this afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will continue for Thursday, but unlike today where the stronger wind gusts were in the southern part of the state, Thursday's winds will be higher over the northeast. Minimum relative humidities will still be quite low for the majority of eastern New Mexico at around 15% or less. These dry conditions and stronger gusts will contribute to a few hours of patchy critical fire weather conditions for parts of northeast New Mexico. For the rest of the state, the dry and southerly flow will contribute to elevated conditons.

Fire weather threat decreases heading into the end of the week as a late season winter storm looks to bring widespread wetting precipitation and heavy snow for the northern mountains. Increased moisture and much colder temperatures will keep the fire threat to a minimum. However, for early to middle of next week, temperatures look to warm back up as high pressure ridging will build over the region. Conditions will become warmer and dryer, but winds will still be fairly light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 30 49 29 53 / 60 50 5 30 Dulce........................... 19 44 15 51 / 50 60 10 50 Cuba............................ 21 44 23 51 / 40 30 5 50 Gallup.......................... 18 46 18 47 / 50 20 5 60 El Morro........................ 21 43 23 46 / 30 20 10 70 Grants.......................... 17 48 20 50 / 30 10 5 60 Quemado......................... 19 45 24 48 / 10 10 10 60 Magdalena....................... 25 51 29 52 / 0 5 5 40 Datil........................... 21 46 25 48 / 5 5 5 50 Reserve......................... 17 51 21 54 / 5 5 5 50 Glenwood........................ 24 56 26 58 / 5 5 0 50 Chama........................... 18 38 15 46 / 50 60 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 29 45 30 48 / 10 20 0 60 Pecos........................... 25 46 28 50 / 10 10 5 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 25 43 23 46 / 20 30 5 70 Red River....................... 19 34 19 36 / 20 40 10 90 Angel Fire...................... 17 41 15 43 / 10 20 5 80 Taos............................ 20 46 19 50 / 10 30 0 70 Mora............................ 21 47 23 46 / 5 10 5 70 Espanola........................ 27 52 24 57 / 10 20 0 50 Santa Fe........................ 28 46 29 51 / 10 20 5 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 26 50 28 55 / 10 10 5 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 35 53 36 57 / 10 10 5 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 55 34 58 / 10 10 5 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 57 32 60 / 10 10 5 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 55 33 58 / 10 10 5 30 Belen........................... 27 57 28 61 / 5 5 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 32 56 32 59 / 10 10 5 40 Bosque Farms.................... 27 57 28 61 / 10 5 5 30 Corrales........................ 32 56 33 59 / 10 10 5 40 Los Lunas....................... 28 57 30 60 / 10 5 5 30 Placitas........................ 32 51 34 55 / 10 10 5 50 Rio Rancho...................... 32 55 33 58 / 10 10 5 40 Socorro......................... 31 60 33 62 / 0 0 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 48 31 51 / 10 10 5 60 Tijeras......................... 28 50 31 53 / 10 10 5 60 Edgewood........................ 24 51 27 53 / 10 10 5 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 52 21 55 / 5 5 5 50 Clines Corners.................. 23 49 27 50 / 5 0 10 60 Mountainair..................... 25 51 27 53 / 5 0 10 50 Gran Quivira.................... 26 52 28 53 / 0 0 10 40 Carrizozo....................... 32 55 34 56 / 0 0 30 40 Ruidoso......................... 32 49 34 50 / 5 0 40 50 Capulin......................... 26 50 27 44 / 5 5 5 70 Raton........................... 24 53 26 50 / 5 20 5 70 Springer........................ 24 55 27 51 / 5 5 0 60 Las Vegas....................... 24 50 27 50 / 0 0 5 70 Clayton......................... 33 60 35 51 / 5 5 20 60 Roy............................. 29 55 32 50 / 0 0 10 60 Conchas......................... 34 63 37 56 / 0 0 20 60 Santa Rosa...................... 32 60 36 53 / 0 0 20 70 Tucumcari....................... 36 64 38 55 / 10 5 40 70 Clovis.......................... 40 65 40 56 / 20 5 70 70 Portales........................ 41 66 39 55 / 20 5 70 80 Fort Sumner..................... 36 64 37 56 / 0 0 40 70 Roswell......................... 41 69 44 61 / 5 0 60 60 Picacho......................... 33 61 37 57 / 0 0 40 50 Elk............................. 33 58 34 55 / 5 0 40 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.