textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms will produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, small hail and gusty and erratic winds this afternoon and early evening, then again on Sunday afternoon favoring areas west of the central mountain chain.

- Low chance (10-30%) for fog to develop across the southeast plains early Sunday morning and limit visibility to a half mile or less, creating difficult to hazardous travel conditions.

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, bringing more showers, storms and high mountain snow favoring western and northern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the trailing shortwave trough moving slowly south across west central NM, while the latest radar imagery and lightning data reveal scattered showers and isolated storms associated with the feature. Rainfall amounts with this activity will generally range from an few hundredths of an inch up to around 0.25". The 18Z KABQ upper air sounding shows a 700mb temperature of 0C and a profile that is supportive of graupel. The latest CAMs show this activity moving south through the afternoon hours and then diminishing across our southern tier of zones during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Some clearing is forecast overnight and low level moisture will remain in place, especially across areas that received decent (>0.50") rainfall on Thu/Fri like Roswell. Given light winds and the overall setup, we can't rule out the development of fog early Sunday morning although we aren't getting a strong signal from the various guidance. The areas more likely to see fog Sunday morning are the east central and southeast plains, including Roswell, Clovis and Portales. Despite weak ridging over the area Sunday, winds will pick up due to lee side troughing and gustiness associated with a crop of daytime heating convection across western NM. Sunday's round of convection will be fairly anemic in terms of wetting (>0.10") rainfall and will favor gusty/erratic winds. Otherwise, Sunday will be warmer, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than today's.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

The upper level ridge will flatten out over the region on Monday and give way to stronger westerlies, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions after some daytime mixing. Warming will continue Monday and high temperatures are forecast to rise above average across eastern NM, thanks in part to downslope warming. Moisture advection will be the rule Monday night through Tuesday in advance of the next Pacific low, forecast to open up and move overhead on Tuesday night through Wednesday. PWATs won't be very high and forcing with this weakening upper air feature won't be particularly strong, so don't expect much wetting (>0.10") rainfall with this event. The exception will be across the northern mountains and northeast NM, thanks to added forcing from a backdoor cold front which is forecast to move in on Tuesday and then progress slowly southwest into the highlands and east central plains through Wednesday. Lowering snow levels Tuesday night through Wednesday will be supportive of another round of several inches of snow across the northern mountains, with the highest totals likely in the Sangre De Cristos. A drying and warming trend is forecast from Thursday through Saturday under weak northwest flow aloft while a weak Pacific low sits and spins over the Baja Peninsula. Temperatures will rise above average areawide by Friday and then warm a few more degrees on Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Low probabilities for LIFR conditions in low status/fog exist at KROW early Sunday morning, but are too low to include in the TAF at this time. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will be associated with short-lived MVFR conditions. TAF site more likely to be impacted this by this activity is KGUP through around 21Z. Otherwise, light winds prevail and are forecast to remain light through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days. Higher humidity and low chances for wetting precipitation will continue through Sunday, favoring areas west of the central mountain chain. Drying and warming are forecast on Monday as stronger westerly winds mix down to the surface. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday afternoon, but increasing cloud cover and recent rainfall will limit the potential for the rapid spread of fire. Moisture advection will ramp-up Monday night into Tuesday in advance of the next Pacific low, which will bring increased humidity and chances for wetting precipitation from Tuesday through Wednesday. A backdoor cold front will focus precipitation across northeast and east central NM going into Wednesday as the Pacific low moves over the region. A warming/drying trend is forecast thereafter with fairly weak northwest flow aloft and a weak Pacific low hanging out over the Baja Peninsula.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 41 75 46 74 / 0 5 20 0 Dulce........................... 32 70 38 70 / 0 10 30 10 Cuba............................ 34 69 41 69 / 0 10 30 10 Gallup.......................... 34 73 39 70 / 0 10 20 0 El Morro........................ 35 69 40 67 / 5 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 33 72 39 72 / 5 20 20 5 Quemado......................... 37 69 42 69 / 10 20 20 10 Magdalena....................... 41 68 48 72 / 10 20 20 5 Datil........................... 36 66 43 68 / 10 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 35 72 40 73 / 20 20 20 5 Glenwood........................ 38 76 41 77 / 20 10 10 0 Chama........................... 31 64 35 64 / 0 10 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 41 67 46 70 / 0 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 35 68 41 70 / 5 10 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 65 40 65 / 0 10 20 10 Red River....................... 28 56 34 56 / 0 10 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 23 61 32 63 / 0 10 20 10 Taos............................ 31 69 38 70 / 0 10 10 5 Mora............................ 31 66 41 68 / 0 10 10 10 Espanola........................ 40 73 44 76 / 0 10 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 39 68 45 71 / 5 5 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 71 43 74 / 5 5 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 46 72 53 76 / 5 10 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 74 51 77 / 5 10 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 76 49 79 / 5 10 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 44 75 50 78 / 5 10 20 0 Belen........................... 40 76 47 80 / 10 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 43 75 50 79 / 5 5 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 76 45 80 / 5 10 20 0 Corrales........................ 43 75 49 79 / 5 10 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 40 76 46 80 / 5 10 20 0 Placitas........................ 44 72 51 75 / 5 5 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 45 75 50 78 / 5 10 20 0 Socorro......................... 45 75 52 81 / 10 20 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 40 67 48 71 / 10 5 20 0 Tijeras......................... 41 69 48 73 / 10 10 20 5 Edgewood........................ 38 70 44 74 / 10 5 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 72 37 75 / 10 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 36 68 44 72 / 5 5 10 0 Mountainair..................... 38 68 46 73 / 10 10 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 37 67 45 73 / 20 10 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 44 68 52 74 / 30 5 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 62 50 67 / 20 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 34 69 40 72 / 0 5 10 10 Raton........................... 32 73 39 75 / 0 10 10 10 Springer........................ 33 75 40 77 / 0 5 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 34 69 43 73 / 0 5 10 5 Clayton......................... 42 77 48 80 / 0 0 10 5 Roy............................. 38 73 46 77 / 0 5 10 5 Conchas......................... 43 80 51 85 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 76 50 81 / 0 0 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 44 81 53 87 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 43 77 51 85 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 42 77 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 76 50 85 / 0 0 10 0 Roswell......................... 44 77 52 88 / 5 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 40 73 50 80 / 10 5 5 0 Elk............................. 37 70 47 76 / 20 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.