textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 445 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Unseasonably mild weather persists through Saturday with near record warm temperatures. - Some difficult crosswinds across north to south oriented roads and highways across northeast and east central New Mexico today through Saturday due to locally strong west to southwest winds.

- A strong cold front will enter New Mexico Sunday with much colder temperatures and some gusty winds in it's wake. There is a low chance that snow will develop across northern New Mexico on Sunday as a storm system clips the area. Forecast confidence for snow is low at this time.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 109 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

An impressive tap of moisture is moving east across NM but with very little forcing to generate measurable precip. The 18Z PW of 0.63" at KABQ is a daily record and the +5.5 standard deviations above climo on the NAEFS PW is outside the 30-year model climatology. The only thing working with this moisture is orographics and there are a few showers tracking east over the northern mts today. Stronger winds aloft with a tighter surface pressure gradient over northeast NM is also allowing for windy conditions over northeast NM. Gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range are likely to decrease thru sunset as 700 to 500mb layer winds decrease below 30KT this evening. Much drier air will spread east tonight from AZ with decreasing cloud cover. A couple patches of fog or low cigs cannot be ruled out near the northwest high terrain. Min temps tonight will trend cooler but still remain well above normal.

Friday will remain well above normal with more sun, lower humidity, and breezy west winds along and east of the central mt chain. Top- down moistening will begin Friday night as the next tap of rich subtropical moisture spreads northeast ahead of an approaching trough. Min temps will be well above normal again Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Saturday continues trending wetter with PWs rising to between 3 and 4 standard deviations above climo once again. Better forcing with a 130kt upper level speed max and orographics is likely to squeeze out greater coverage of showers with measurable precip. Snow levels are likely to hover in the 8,500 to 9,000 ft range. The latest QPF and snow ratios resulted in snowfall amounts in the 1 to 3" range for the San Juan/Tusas range Saturday and Saturday night. The stronger winds aloft will also lead to another windy day across northeast NM where gusts may reach 50 mph from Las Vegas to Clayton. The 13Z NBM median was not overly bullish with gusts but higher-res models and the METMOS are very close to Wind Advisory for a few zones.

The upper level trough and associated speed max will eject rapidly east into the Great Plains Saturday night and drag a potent cold front thru NM Sunday. Forecast confidence is very high that much colder air will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night. This will be the coldest air in over three weeks with even colder wind chill temps. Unfortunately, the upper level pattern becomes complex and uncertainty rises quickly later Sunday into Monday. There is still potential for snow to develop south into northern NM Sunday but beyond that model guidance continues to offer very inconsistent messaging. For now, folks that have travel plans Sunday and Monday should stay alert to the latest forecast. Also, those who have taken advantage of the recent extended warmth should prepare for much colder weather Sunday thru Monday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas of low clouds are forecast to produce MVFR and IFR conditions late tonight into Friday morning around Gallup and also in the Chama and Dulce area. A low VFR ceiling looks increasingly likely to return as far west as Farmington early Friday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected tonight and Friday. West southwest winds will become gusty again on Friday afternoon across east central areas, in the mountains, and around Gallup.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next 7 days. Deeper moisture moving over the area today with stronger west winds will clear out tonight. West winds will remain breezy with mild temperatures and lower humidity Friday. Another surge of moisture will move into NM Saturday with increasing coverage of rain showers and light snow above 8,500 feet. Any accums will be confined to the San Juan/Tusas ranges and west-slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Strong west wind gusts over northeast NM may reach 45 to 50 mph Saturday afternoon but min humidity will be above 15%. A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday with much colder temps and blustery north winds. An area of snow may form over northeast NM and the east slopes of the central mt chain Sunday into Sunday night but confidence is very low. Amounts are more likely to be light anyways. The coldest temps in over 3 weeks will be the main story thru Monday night. Fair to good vent rates thru Sunday will deteriorate to poor in most areas Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 36 57 37 52 / 10 5 10 50 Dulce........................... 31 53 30 48 / 40 20 40 80 Cuba............................ 32 54 35 48 / 5 5 20 60 Gallup.......................... 32 57 33 49 / 0 5 10 40 El Morro........................ 30 57 35 48 / 0 5 10 50 Grants.......................... 27 61 33 52 / 0 0 10 40 Quemado......................... 31 61 37 52 / 0 5 10 50 Magdalena....................... 37 62 41 57 / 0 0 5 30 Datil........................... 32 59 35 52 / 0 0 5 30 Reserve......................... 32 64 35 56 / 0 10 20 60 Glenwood........................ 35 69 38 60 / 0 10 30 60 Chama........................... 29 46 28 41 / 30 20 30 70 Los Alamos...................... 35 53 37 48 / 0 0 20 50 Pecos........................... 34 55 36 51 / 0 0 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 50 33 45 / 0 0 10 30 Red River....................... 28 47 29 42 / 5 0 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 26 49 28 45 / 5 5 20 30 Taos............................ 30 53 31 49 / 5 0 20 30 Mora............................ 32 59 34 52 / 0 0 10 30 Espanola........................ 31 59 35 55 / 0 0 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 35 55 38 50 / 0 0 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 57 36 52 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 59 44 56 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 60 42 58 / 0 0 5 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 36 62 41 60 / 0 0 5 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 37 60 42 58 / 0 0 5 40 Belen........................... 33 62 40 61 / 0 0 5 40 Bernalillo...................... 37 61 41 58 / 0 0 10 40 Bosque Farms.................... 33 62 39 60 / 0 0 5 40 Corrales........................ 36 61 41 59 / 0 0 10 40 Los Lunas....................... 34 62 40 60 / 0 0 5 40 Placitas........................ 39 58 42 55 / 0 0 10 50 Rio Rancho...................... 36 60 41 58 / 0 0 10 40 Socorro......................... 38 67 44 65 / 0 0 0 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 35 55 39 51 / 0 0 10 50 Tijeras......................... 36 59 38 54 / 0 0 10 50 Edgewood........................ 34 60 37 55 / 0 0 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 60 33 57 / 0 0 5 40 Clines Corners.................. 35 57 36 53 / 0 0 0 30 Mountainair..................... 36 61 40 57 / 0 0 0 30 Gran Quivira.................... 36 61 41 57 / 0 0 0 30 Carrizozo....................... 41 66 45 61 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 43 61 45 57 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 32 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 62 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 30 65 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 34 62 37 56 / 0 0 0 20 Clayton......................... 39 70 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 73 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 42 75 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 43 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 41 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 40 73 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 74 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 72 42 67 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.