textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 556 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- High temperatures continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal resulting in moderate to major heat risk across much of New Mexico, especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are expected on several days over central and western New Mexico.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

- Smoke from wildfires in Utah, Nevada, and Colorado may begin to impact air quality across northern New Mexico through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Changes since last forecast package...not many if any at all. Other than some subtle fluctuations in day to day high temperatures thunderstorm chances do look less compared to previous forecast data. A heat advisory for tomorrow was added for the same areas as today except the far western zone was removed and the zone for the Espanola valley was added.

Forecast still hints at the upper level ridge over much of AZ/NM will contract back over AZ late tomorrow into Friday. Westerly flow aloft over northern NM will support a few strong/severe storms in the NE Highlands and Plains. Already seeing storms developing in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe storms. Lapse rates and moisture may not be quite like it was yesterday but enough for an isolated severe storm with hail/downburst winds. No severe storm outlook for tomorrow but still the similar outline for sub-severe storms.

Heat risk looks to be relatively the same the next few days. Espanola valley was added to the heat advisory for tomorrow as temperatures have been consistently just below or at criteria so it made sense to include that area. Temperatures tomorrow west of the Zuni Mountains and Gallup are less so think it is safe to drop the advisory there.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Upper level ridge does move over the Great Basin to Four Corners Friday into Saturday. Synoptic ensembles are in pretty good agreement with this idea. The problem is that as the ridge moves to the west it also becomes stronger. What this means is that upper level heights do not drop much as the ridge moves away due to it strengthening at the same time. The end result means that high temperatures do not decrease much over the weekend. We will likely be re-issuing heat advisories into the weekend for a lot of the same areas.

By early next week Monday into Tuesday the ridge does become weaker with lower heights meaning less subsidence. By next Tuesday into Wednesday the monsoon moisture plume is more pronounced over SE AZ and E AZ with some moisture filtering into NM. There is not much to bank on with this scenario but the forecast does trend towards slightly lower high temperatures and higher thunderstorm chances. There is very little confidence but New Mexico really needs the precipitation.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The main focus for SHRA/TS will remain over northeast NM where cells are likely to move southeast off the Sangre de Cristo Mts into nearby plains thru 3AM. Another area of SHRA/TS over far southwest NM and the lower Rio Grande Valley will dissipate after sunset. A northeast wind shift will move southwest to the central mt chain before sunrise. This boundary will serve as a focus for another crop of SHRA/TS Thursday afternoon along and east of the central mt chain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Pockets of elevated fire weather conditions are expected to occur through the weekend over portions of the Four Corners across to the NE Highlands and Plains. The main reason for this is a combination of relative humidity below 15 percent and dry fuels. Fortunately winds are not expected to be anywhere close to elevated or critical levels. Still the dry conditions with low fuel moisture will support fire spread.

Thunderstorm activity will be confined to the higher terrain areas across the state posing as the typical hazards. The recent run of small fires across the state is mainly due to lightning strikes. Given the state of fuels and drier air, lightning igniting fires will continue to be a problem until there is more widespread precipitation in these trouble areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 100 62 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 52 98 51 99 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 59 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 58 94 56 96 / 0 10 10 0 El Morro........................ 57 88 55 91 / 10 20 5 10 Grants.......................... 59 94 57 95 / 10 10 5 5 Quemado......................... 61 89 58 91 / 20 50 20 10 Magdalena....................... 65 90 63 91 / 10 30 20 20 Datil........................... 60 86 58 87 / 20 50 10 30 Reserve......................... 59 93 57 95 / 30 60 20 50 Glenwood........................ 62 97 61 98 / 30 60 20 70 Chama........................... 54 91 52 91 / 0 5 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 63 91 62 92 / 5 20 5 20 Pecos........................... 58 93 58 91 / 5 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 91 57 91 / 10 5 5 20 Red River....................... 48 83 48 81 / 10 10 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 43 86 43 85 / 10 20 10 50 Taos............................ 56 95 55 94 / 5 5 5 20 Mora............................ 53 89 53 89 / 10 20 10 50 Espanola........................ 62 99 61 99 / 5 5 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 63 93 62 92 / 5 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 95 60 95 / 5 5 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 99 68 99 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 99 66 98 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 101 65 101 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 66 101 64 100 / 5 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 67 101 66 101 / 0 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 65 100 63 99 / 0 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 69 102 67 101 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 67 101 64 100 / 5 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 67 98 65 97 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 68 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 71 101 68 102 / 5 20 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 95 60 93 / 0 5 5 40 Tijeras......................... 64 95 62 93 / 0 5 5 40 Edgewood........................ 60 95 58 94 / 0 10 10 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 97 55 95 / 5 10 10 40 Clines Corners.................. 60 91 59 90 / 10 20 20 40 Mountainair..................... 61 94 59 93 / 5 30 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 59 91 / 10 40 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 65 93 / 30 40 40 30 Ruidoso......................... 61 86 59 86 / 20 50 30 30 Capulin......................... 55 88 57 88 / 30 20 10 30 Raton........................... 54 92 54 93 / 40 20 10 40 Springer........................ 55 95 55 95 / 30 10 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 55 91 55 91 / 20 30 20 30 Clayton......................... 62 95 65 96 / 40 5 20 20 Roy............................. 60 91 61 92 / 30 10 20 20 Conchas......................... 67 99 67 100 / 20 5 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 95 64 95 / 20 20 30 10 Tucumcari....................... 68 100 67 100 / 20 0 20 10 Clovis.......................... 68 98 67 98 / 0 0 10 5 Portales........................ 69 98 69 99 / 0 0 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 69 97 69 98 / 10 0 10 5 Roswell......................... 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 10 0 Picacho......................... 66 95 65 95 / 10 10 10 5 Elk............................. 62 93 61 93 / 5 20 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205-207-219- 221.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-207-217- 219.