textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Slow moving thunderstorms will threaten flash flooding on recent burn scars and areas that received heavy rain yesterday, including the Ruidoso area and Seven Cabins burn scars, into this evening.

- Scattered strong thunderstorms over southeastern New Mexico will threaten frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail this afternoon into the evening. - Scattered weak showers and isolated dry thunderstorms over west- central to southwestern New Mexico will threaten strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface moisture, per dewpoint obs, pushed to and even beyond the Continental Divide overnight, with dewpoints at KFMN rising into the lower 40s F this morning. However, this moisture is relatively shallow, with PW analyzed on SPC mesoanalysis running 0.45-0.60" in that area and dewpoint at KGUP mixing out to the mid-20s as of this writing. Upshot is that, despite scattered to numerous coverage, western NM will see a mix of wet and dry storms (mostly dry north of the Gila NF) the rest of the afternoon. Further east, storms are still hugging the higher terrain of the central mountain chain, with a Flash Flood Warning recently issued for the burn scar area near Ruidoso. This is amid light flow aloft, which is mitigating the threat of severe storms vs. yesterday, while also making for slow and erratic storm motions. A moisture gradient exists over eastern NM, with PW increasing from 0.8 in the Sacramento Mts. to nearly 1.2 inches along the TX border. Storms will be a bit slow to move off the high terrain today, but CAM guidance (e. g., HRRR and RRFS) eventually congeal this activity into a more coherent line/ broken line which moves out into the eastern Plains this evening, gradually pushing toward the southeast. Storms could last until around 10pm-12 midnight, with locally heavy rainfall in this area highlighted with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from WPC. Areas such as Roswell and those which picked up 1-3 inches of rainfall yesterday (pockets of Chaves, Roosevelt, and Curry/Quay counties) will need to be monitored for minor flooding impacts if storms trek over those same areas this evening.

Thursday brings an overall downtick in convective coverage and intensity, as a 500mb ridge axis begins nosing into western NM with an attendant decrease column mean RH. That being said, there really isn't strong westerly flow to flush the moisture out. Storms should mainly be confined to the central mountain chain and southwestern mountains and may struggle to move into the lower elevations. Will hold off on another Flood Watch for the burn scar areas in Lincoln County, though this is somewhat dependent on how much rain ultimately falls on them today. Both NBM and RRFS probs for >0.5" are only in the 15-25% range, so will let the evening shift take another look.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Only a subtle change in the weather pattern from Thursday to Friday. An upper-level low which is currently just off of Baja California will have progressed into central Chihuahua state, with the aforementioned mid-level ridging poking further into northern NM. Some moisture lingers in southeastern NM, but isolated to scattered coverage of storms should again mainly be confined to the mountainous areas. Max temperatures also trend up a few degrees most all areas. On Saturday, this low weakens as it lifts up through the Permian Basin to the Panhandles region. Modest northwest flow on the backside of this feature brings another uptick on convection over the northern mountains and perhaps the eastern Plains, where the CSU machine learning progs even hint at a small chance of severe storms along the TX border...though overall flow aloft remains fairly weak.

PoPs finally dwindle to negligible across the Land of Enchantment by Sunday as a short-wave ridge exists overhead. Afternoon max temps continue their climb as well, with low-mid 90s in the ABQ Metro and upper 90s in the Chaves County plains. Heat continues building into Monday, where LREF H5 heights reach the 80-90th percentile for early June. NBM has ROW hitting 100F on Monday, with pockets of Moderate Heat Risk showing up there and in the RGV Monday and Tuesday.

The forecast gets a bit murkier from Tuesday into the middle of the next week, as models and ensembles vary on the orientation and latitude of the base of a significant trough in the Pacific NW. GFS shows a wetter solution with a plume of moisture moving up on SSW flow, while the ECMWF has more of a westerly mid-level wind component, for drier and breezier conditions. Blended guidance of isolated to widely scattered PoPs, mainly over the mountains, seems reasonable for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Convective hazards will be in play for all of the terminals except KFMN over the next 9-12 hours. KGUP could see either wet or dry thunderstorms in the vicinity with associated brief wind gusts up to 40KT. Relatively highest confidence for direct storm impacts are at KSAF late afternoon into early evening and at KROW from about 03-06Z, as storms move off the central mountain chain and congeal into a more organized band, per recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS. Medium confidence for KROW to see at least a brief period of MVFR visibility with potential for a cell with heavy rain to move overhead within this band.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected over the next seven days, though there are a few points of concern. Dry storms today and Thursday, especially over the Northwest Plateau West Central Mountains, will pose a risk for new fire starts from lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions have a moderate chance of developing in the same area by Saturday and Sunday, as 20-foot westerly breezes of 10-15 mph overspread minimum RHs of 10-15% and ERCs around the 90th percentile, per SWCC analysis. Forecast uncertainty increases significantly beyond Monday, as model difference point to either a drier/breezier pattern continuing or a return of thunderstorm chances, particularly along the central mountain chain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 91 55 94 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 42 86 44 89 / 5 10 5 5 Cuba............................ 49 84 52 86 / 20 10 5 5 Gallup.......................... 46 87 49 89 / 5 5 0 5 El Morro........................ 48 82 51 85 / 10 10 5 10 Grants.......................... 48 86 51 88 / 10 10 5 10 Quemado......................... 49 84 52 86 / 10 10 10 5 Magdalena....................... 54 80 57 84 / 20 20 10 5 Datil........................... 50 79 52 83 / 20 20 10 5 Reserve......................... 46 87 47 91 / 20 30 10 10 Glenwood........................ 49 90 50 94 / 30 50 5 20 Chama........................... 41 79 43 82 / 5 20 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 54 79 56 84 / 40 30 5 5 Pecos........................... 47 82 49 84 / 50 20 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 79 51 83 / 20 20 10 10 Red River....................... 40 71 43 74 / 20 20 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 40 75 43 78 / 20 30 10 20 Taos............................ 46 82 49 85 / 20 20 10 10 Mora............................ 46 79 48 82 / 30 30 10 30 Espanola........................ 53 88 55 92 / 30 10 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 54 82 56 84 / 40 10 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 51 84 54 87 / 40 10 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 88 63 91 / 30 5 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 89 60 92 / 30 5 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 91 60 94 / 30 0 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 90 61 93 / 30 0 5 10 Belen........................... 56 90 58 93 / 20 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 58 90 61 93 / 30 5 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 54 90 57 93 / 30 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 59 91 61 94 / 30 5 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 56 90 59 93 / 20 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 58 86 61 89 / 40 5 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 58 90 61 93 / 30 0 10 10 Socorro......................... 60 90 62 93 / 20 5 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 82 56 85 / 40 10 10 10 Tijeras......................... 53 83 55 86 / 40 10 5 10 Edgewood........................ 50 84 53 87 / 40 10 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 85 50 87 / 40 10 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 50 80 52 82 / 50 20 10 30 Mountainair..................... 50 82 53 85 / 40 20 5 30 Gran Quivira.................... 51 79 53 82 / 40 20 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 57 80 59 82 / 40 20 5 30 Ruidoso......................... 52 74 53 76 / 50 60 5 50 Capulin......................... 45 79 48 82 / 30 30 10 20 Raton........................... 47 83 49 87 / 20 20 10 20 Springer........................ 49 83 50 86 / 30 20 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 48 80 50 83 / 50 30 10 30 Clayton......................... 53 84 55 86 / 30 10 10 10 Roy............................. 51 81 52 84 / 40 20 10 20 Conchas......................... 56 87 58 89 / 60 5 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 53 84 55 86 / 60 10 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 57 87 59 89 / 60 5 10 10 Clovis.......................... 57 84 58 85 / 70 10 10 5 Portales........................ 57 85 58 86 / 70 10 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 56 84 57 86 / 60 5 0 10 Roswell......................... 59 85 60 86 / 60 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 54 81 55 83 / 50 50 10 10 Elk............................. 53 80 53 82 / 50 60 5 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.