textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 434 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Record high temperatures are forecast for many locations daily through Sunday.

- A more active pattern takes shape for the middle to latter portion of next week, with breezy to windy conditions and at least some chances for rain and mountain snow.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Pleasant weather continues throughout New Mexico as temperatures are forecast to remain roughly 15-20F above average throughout the state. A high pressure located over the Baja Peninsula continues to remain stationary, placing consistent northwest flow over NM. The 18z ABQ sounding shows that the 500mb standardized height is right around 582dm, which serves to be near the 99th percentile of 500mb heights. Needless to say, these high pressure heights have correlated to this significant warm stretch. Several record high temperatures may be broken today, with even more of them being threatened. Mid to high 70s, with low to mid 80s across the southeast, can be expected today as well as Saturday. A few northwest breezes are likely today as the atmosphere mixes out, though will most likely be less than yesterday given weaker 700mb flow. A near carbon copy day is expected for Saturday, with very little change in the pattern and conditions.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 128 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sunday continues to be advertised as the warmest day of the next week, as surface winds turn due west due to a flattening ridge. These winds are likely to downslope across the state, providing additional heating effects to lower elevation areas. To put some temperatures in perspective, there is a ~40-50% chance for the ABQ Sunport (official climate site) to hit 80F on Sunday, which would be the earliest official 80F day in ABQ by over a week. Roswell has a ~60% chance to hit 90F, which would be the second earliest 90F day on record. With these hotter temperatures, folks should be mindful to stay hydrated it outside for extended periods of time.

The pattern becomes interesting later Sunday into Monday. A poorly modeled backdoor front is slated to slide down the central Great Plains and enter New Mexico sometime late Sunday into Monday. The general consensus is this front will enter NM around sundown on Sunday, pushing further in through the night. The 12z NAM and AI-GFS runs are earlier on its arrival (closer to midday), and thus have cooler high temperatures in northeast NM for Sunday. As most models and ensembles are favoring a later entry, the current forecast high temperatures, especially in eastern NM, reflect this thinking. Forecast sounding are also favoring a more saturated surface layer behind the front, which may lead to areas of low clouds and potentially a few areas of drizzle. Confidence is not high on this though, especially considering the debate on the timing of the front.

As the front likely sits in eastern NM through Monday morning, the upper level flow flattens out as the ridge continues to break down and a shortwave begins to approach from the west. Downstream of the trough axis, stiff west to southwest flow is likely to encroach on the area, and with relatively deep mixed layers depicted in forecast soundings, Monday appears favored for a breezier day across the state. There is better agreement that these stronger southwest winds will work to wash out whatever is left of the front in eastern NM, which favors the scenario of warming temperatures back up rather than keeping them cooler as they normally are after a frontal passage. Tuesday is favored to remain breezy (and spread more across the state) as the shortwave approaches and southwest flow strengthens further. What once looked like a widespread precipitation producer now looks to spit out just a little rain and mountain snow over northern NM. Something to watch out for is how the evolution of a potential lee cyclone fares in eastern NM/southeast CO Tuesday afternoon, and whether precipitation is generated in northeast NM via frontogenetical forcing. PoPs between 30-40% Tuesday accurately reflect this thinking.

As we get to the end of the forecast period, a lull in the pattern is favored for the Wednesday timeframe before another shortwave looks to enter the region. Breezy to windy conditions are favored with southwest flow likely. Precipitation chances look to remain locked to the higher terrain of the northern mountains.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 434 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions across all sites through the period. Breezy west to northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts will persist until around sunset for KABQ, KFMN, and KAEG. Winds will be come light and variable overnight at most sites, along with some terrain-induced drainage winds at locations such as KSAF. Once again, few to scattered high clouds will continue to stream in from the northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Elevated to locally near critical fire weather conditions are expected throughout the next several days. Breezy northwest winds today along with low teens humidity values will continue to provide elevated fire weather conditions mainly in east central NM. Ventilation rates look to fluctuate between fair and good across most of the state through today and Saturday. Tomorrow is also favored to be the least breezy day of the next several, though humidity values will remain in the mid to low teens for most of the state. Breezy west winds return Sunday, where elevated fire weather conditions are likely.

Monday looks to begin a stretch of breezy to windy days as a series of systems look to bring in stiff southwest flow. These patterns are normally favored to bring drier air into the region along with a greater coverage of critical fire weather conditions. ERC values have inflated into the 50th to 75th percentile across eastern NM per SWCC, signaling that fuels are becoming more receptive to potential burns. As it currently stands, critical fire weather conditions are favored for the pattern next week, and a few Red Flag Warnings are possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 34 67 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 65 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 33 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 71 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 73 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 72 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 39 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 37 80 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 40 83 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 27 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 40 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 38 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 29 55 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 23 61 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 66 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 35 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 72 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 41 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 74 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 77 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 35 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 35 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 76 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 37 76 40 81 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 43 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 40 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 43 79 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 42 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 38 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 37 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 40 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 40 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 71 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 32 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 71 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 30 74 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 72 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 39 73 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 36 71 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 37 79 38 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 77 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 37 79 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 44 81 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 42 82 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 41 81 39 84 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 44 86 45 89 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 45 83 45 85 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.