textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms.

- A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The H5 remains flat and elongated west to east from NM to just offshore the northern Baja Peninsula today with only modest low level moisture beneath it across New Mexico. Widespread surface Td's in the 40s to 50s is beginning to yield this afternoon's crop of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain. Steering flow will generally take storms off the Sangre de Cristo's S/SE over the adjacent highlands late today, reaching near the Sacramento Mts this evening. Some of these storms may be capable of briefly producing upwards of an inch of rain over the Sangre de Cristo's, but any flash flood potential is low. Rainfall rates with this particular cluster will steadily lower as they progress southward toward south-central NM this evening. Storm motions along the Continental Divide will be slower and erratic with short lifespans. Relatively drier boundary layer conditions with brief rain potential will heighten the risk for dry lightning and strong and abrupt dry downburst wind gusts. Evening convection will die down to about the midnight hour through central and south-central NM with erratic gusty outflow winds also calming thru the evening hours.

After a relatively calm overnight into morning period, Thursday will see the H5 high continue to flatten and migrate westward, allowing for drier westerlies to expand through more of northwestern and north-central NM. This will shunt afternoon thunderstorms moreso to areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, as well as over the southwest mountains in the Gila NF area, and south-central mountains near Ruidoso. Stronger westerlies aloft overriding the CO Rockies will provide for better bulk shear, allowing for a marginal risk of storms moving east off the Sangre de Cristo's to become strong to severe over Colfax and Union Counties Thursday afternoon. The H5 high builds back east over NM Friday, but afternoon thunderstorm initiation will favor the same areas with another marginal risk for some to become strong to severe along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. The subtle difference will be the increase in high temperatures Friday into the low 100s for more lower elevation areas. Some areas including Farmington and Albuquerque may need Heat Advisories.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The H5 high begins to evolve into a more classically shaped NAM Monsoon high centered over the Four Corners region Saturday. This will keep the heat going over western NM with some lower level moisture still present through eastern NM. Afternoon storms will favor areas along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain with relatively slow storm motions threatening heavy rainfall over recent burn scars. PWATs climb toward the 0.90" to 1.00" mark Sunday as the monsoon high builds toward the 600dm mark over WY, allowing for Gulf moisture to advance further west through the state. This will set the stage for more scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of central and southern NM. There may also be some surface boundaries present across eastern NM capable of being a focal point for convective updrafts as well.

The near 600-602dm high sets up its domain over the northern Great Plains early next week, continuing a healthy influx of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf through mostly the southern half to two- thirds of NM. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before migrating westward over surrounding lower elevations is the favored pattern each day. Any storm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, threatening flash flooding where storms pass over the same areas repeatedly. High temperatures also trend down with the high migrating away from NM, lowering the heat risk.

One area for uncertainty regarding afternoon thunderstorm chances early next week revolves around global numerical models no longer strongly resolving an easterly wave feature pushing into NM from TX. Suppression on the western fringe of this feature would act to lower thunderstorm potential, increasing again as its axis moves into the state, but there is less of a signal for that with the 12Z model runs this morning. Something to watch out for regarding next week's thunderstorm potential.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR prevails areawide, except for where locally MVFR conditions will accompany afternoon thunderstorm activity developing over the high terrain before moving over surrounding lower elevations of mostly central and western NM. Will need to monitor potential for east canyon wind thru KABQ b/w 23Z to 03Z, amds may become necessary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

No by the book critical fire weather concerns through the next 7 days. However, very dry conditions with heat building and very low humidity remains. Prevailing winds will be the limiting factor for any fire weather concerns. Abrupt and erratic wind gusts accompanied by an increased dry lightning potential does exist where isolated to scattered thunderstorms pass across mainly central, northern, and western NM through the rest of the week. More rain efficient thunderstorms enter eastern NM Saturday, spreading westward Sunday into early next week each afternoon as the main monsoon high develops to the north and migrates over the northern Great Plains next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 65 98 63 97 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 93 48 94 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 91 59 92 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 93 58 93 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 89 58 89 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 93 58 94 / 20 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 59 90 61 90 / 50 0 10 0 Magdalena....................... 64 90 66 92 / 20 30 20 10 Datil........................... 60 87 62 88 / 20 20 20 5 Reserve......................... 54 95 55 95 / 50 20 20 30 Glenwood........................ 58 99 59 99 / 20 40 30 30 Chama........................... 49 86 49 87 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 88 65 90 / 10 20 5 5 Pecos........................... 57 90 58 92 / 20 20 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 86 56 88 / 20 30 0 0 Red River....................... 48 77 48 78 / 20 20 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 39 82 38 83 / 20 20 5 10 Taos............................ 52 90 52 91 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 54 86 55 87 / 20 40 10 20 Espanola........................ 60 95 61 98 / 10 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 90 63 92 / 20 30 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 94 60 95 / 20 20 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 97 70 99 / 20 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 99 66 100 / 20 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 100 65 102 / 20 5 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 99 68 100 / 20 5 10 0 Belen........................... 64 100 65 102 / 20 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 100 67 101 / 20 5 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 100 63 101 / 20 10 20 0 Corrales........................ 66 100 67 102 / 20 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 100 65 101 / 20 10 20 0 Placitas........................ 67 96 68 97 / 20 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 99 67 100 / 20 5 10 0 Socorro......................... 70 101 71 104 / 20 10 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 92 64 93 / 20 10 10 0 Tijeras......................... 63 93 63 94 / 20 10 10 0 Edgewood........................ 59 94 60 95 / 20 10 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 95 56 96 / 30 10 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 57 89 58 91 / 30 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 59 93 61 95 / 40 10 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 63 94 / 60 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 68 97 / 40 20 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 59 86 63 89 / 30 40 20 40 Capulin......................... 54 86 53 86 / 20 60 20 60 Raton........................... 53 90 54 90 / 20 50 20 40 Springer........................ 55 92 55 93 / 20 40 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 56 89 57 90 / 20 40 20 20 Clayton......................... 63 94 61 92 / 20 40 30 10 Roy............................. 60 90 59 90 / 20 30 20 20 Conchas......................... 66 99 65 99 / 30 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 95 64 96 / 30 20 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 69 100 68 100 / 20 5 30 0 Clovis.......................... 68 99 68 99 / 5 5 20 0 Portales........................ 69 99 70 101 / 5 0 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 70 101 72 103 / 10 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 65 96 66 97 / 20 20 20 5 Elk............................. 62 93 64 94 / 10 50 10 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.