textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

- The jet stream will bring strong to potentially damaging westerly winds to eastern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday, with potential for more rain and high terrain snow across western and north central New Mexico.

- There is an increasing threat for rapid fire spread across eastern New Mexico and portions of south central New Mexico Monday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

High clouds are approaching from the west this morning as an upper level ridge crests over NM ahead of the next upper level trough. A pleasant day is in store with increasing clouds, warmer temps, and southwest breezes kicking up in the afternoon. Periods of thick high clouds will continue tonight with slight southwest breezes keeping low temps 5 to 15F above normal areawide. Monday will feature more clouds, breezy southwest winds, and well above normal temps (up to 25F above normal over eastern NM).

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Ridge top winds will ramp up quickly Monday night as a 155kt speed max enters AZ ahead of the next upper level trough. Higher terrain areas of the Gila region and the central mt chain may see peak gusts approach 50 mph before sunrise Tuesday. Persistent mixing and more high clouds ahead of the wave will boost min temps 15 to 25F above normal, especially over eastern NM.

The general consensus from several of the past model runs is for a faster trough passage across NM Tuesday. A 170kt speed max will surge east into northern and central NM Tuesday afternoon with a strengthening Pacific cold front racing east across the state. The latest NBM indicates very high chances (>80%) that peak wind gusts will exceed 60 mph along the Sangre de Cristo Mts, the I-25 corridor of northeast NM, and along the Sacramento/Capitan Mts into southwest Chaves County. Peak wind gust probabilities over 70 mph are 40-70% in these same areas so damaging winds are looking more likely. A High Wind Watch has been posted. Numerous Wind Advisories are also likely in surrounding areas of central and eastern NM. The faster approach of the upper trough has also come with enhanced rain/snow chances farther southeast toward the central mt chain Tuesday. Abundant moisture along the Pacific front will work with orographics to squeeze out a burst of snow in the high terrain before precip dissipates along the central mt chain. Blowing snow in the high terrain with falling temps may create a 6-12 hour period of very difficult travel. A couple Winter Wx Advisories are possible along the Cont Divide and the San Juan/Tusas Mts.

Another shortwave trough moving into northern NM Wednesday with a 135kt speed max will keep winds elevated Tuesday night with another round of high winds possible over eastern NM Wednesday. The latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is pinning this period for the most intense winds but MOS guidance and the NBM do not agree quite yet. The orientation of the jet axis Wednesday is also more zonal which may enhance the threat for mountain wave crashing along the east slopes of the central mt chain. Another burst of light snow is also possible for the northern and western high terrain with this wave. There is not much change on Thursday with yet another piece of upper level energy crossing northern NM. The EFI still hints at potential strong winds over eastern NM. Cold advection with each wave will lead to progressively colder temps Wednesday and Thursday. The final upper level wave in this pattern may impact northern NM Friday with more snow for the northern and western high terrain along with another bout of strong winds for eastern NM. This wave is the coldest of the series and temps may actually fall below normal for the entire region.

Folks planning travel thru the region this week should prepare for difficult travel at times from hazardous crosswinds, areas of low visibility with blowing dust, as well as possible slick travel and low visibility in the northern and western high terrain from snow and blowing snow.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

High clouds will increase in coverage today ahead of a Pacific storm system. Southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30kt will be common over northeast NM between noon and 6pm. Otherwise, expect VFR all areas the next 24 hrs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

There is increasing uncertainty from recent model trends with regard to the timing and coverage of critical fire weather thru this week. Nonetheless, a prolonged fire growing pattern is still expected for eastern NM this week. First, today will be tranquil with increasing high clouds, warming temps, and slight southwest breezes.

The approaching Pacific storm system for Tuesday is trending faster and slightly farther south which may create stronger southwest winds over parts of eastern NM by Monday. Min RH is low enough to support critical fire weather along the I-25 corridor of northeast NM where a few wildfires have occurred recently. Winds are still marginal and mixing is not very deep but trends suggest changes may occur today. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued for the Northeast Highlands for Monday.

By Tuesday, abundant moisture and cooler temps approaching with the Pacific cold front are trending min RH a tad higher over eastern NM. However, very strong southwest to west winds will occur in another area where a few wildfires have occurred lately. Mixing is also much deeper in the area aligned with higher ERC values. As such, a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for the Northeast Plains and East-Central Plains Tuesday.

The fire weather threat continues Wednesday and Thursday and may expand to even more of eastern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 34 64 38 / 0 0 0 50 Dulce........................... 58 23 61 30 / 0 0 0 50 Cuba............................ 56 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 61 22 62 30 / 0 0 0 40 El Morro........................ 61 30 62 33 / 0 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 63 24 66 33 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 63 30 63 35 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 61 36 67 41 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 61 31 64 36 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 64 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 30 Glenwood........................ 69 30 69 36 / 0 0 0 30 Chama........................... 51 25 53 26 / 0 0 5 40 Los Alamos...................... 56 34 57 39 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 59 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 20 Red River....................... 48 28 48 28 / 0 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 55 20 56 28 / 0 0 0 20 Taos............................ 59 25 61 34 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 64 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 63 28 66 39 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 57 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 32 62 38 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 40 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 33 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 66 29 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 35 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 30 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 35 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 31 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 61 37 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 68 35 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 35 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 36 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 63 32 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 24 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 61 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 61 33 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 38 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 40 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 60 30 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 64 27 70 35 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 68 25 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 63 33 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 65 38 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 30 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 71 36 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 68 34 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 72 38 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 70 38 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 71 36 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 31 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 36 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 70 36 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 36 79 46 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for NMZ104-126.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ213>215-223-226-229-233-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for NMZ123.