textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper high center will shift over north central NM today and weaken to around 597dam. PWATs have come down slightly (down to 1.1 inches on the 00Z ABQ sounding) and the MCV that has been a focus for thunderstorms over the last few days has finally moved away from NM. Models suggest thunderstorm coverage will trend down a bit from Sunday, but with PWATs remaining above an inch, and continued slow and erratic storm motion, there remains potential for heavy rainfall in the storms that do develop. Storms should favor the high terrain, particularly the northern and western high terrain, this afternoon. There is not enough confidence for a Flood Watch for any given area, but small footprints of heavy rainfall are likely.

The other story for today will be the heat. Heat Advisories have been issued for much of central and eastern NM where triple digit heat is forecast. The only change with this forecast package was that Union County was added to the Heat Advisory. The forecast high of 104 degrees at Clayton is technically a degree below criteria, but the ALL-TIME high temperature at Clayton is only 105 degrees which has only been hit twice and both times were more than 90 years ago. 104 degrees would certainly be a record for the date. Record breaking high temps are also forecast for several other locations.

An outflow boundary is poised to push into northeast NM late tonight into Tuesday morning. This may spark a few storms overnight across NE NM, but the boundary is expected to push through much of the eastern plains and nudge up to the Central Mountain Chain prior to the noon hour on Tuesday. Moist upslope flow onto the Central Mountain Chain should help set the stage for a more active Tuesday. Storms should develop along the Central Mountain Chain and shift slowly southeastward over the eastern highlands and plains. The boundary itself may also be a focus for storm development somewhere across the plains pending where it stalls. Moreover, convection over Mexico late Monday will send a vort max northwestward around the high. While this looks to mainly impact AZ, it should have some minor influence to increase convection and PWATs across the Southwest Mountains of NM Tuesday afternoon. Outflows from the convection across eastern NM should push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, which may meet with outflows from the convection across the southwest increasing chances for precipitation across central NM in the evening, including around ABQ. Typical monsoon hazards are expected, including heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds.

Despite the convection, it will still be quite hot as temps will warm up early. Another set of Heat Advisories are expected to be issued with later shifts across portions of central and eastern NM. At least a few locations are expected to break their daily high temperature record once again.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Storms will be slow to wind down Tuesday night but should taper off by sunrise Wednesday. The upper high will still be meandering over NM but looks to weaken to around 596dam by Wednesday. Plenty of moisture beneath this high will allow for scattered to numerous storms over the high terrain. Storm motions will still be slow and PWATs will remain at or above 1 inch, so heavy rainfall will remain in play. More of the same in store for Thursday, but the upper high will begin to shift westward, centering over western NM by the afternoon. A boundary over northeast NM will be an additional focus for storm activity and this boundary should push southward across the eastern plains Thursday night. Triple digit heat will continue across portions of central and eastern NM both Wed and Thu.

The upper high will strengthen as it shifts northwestward on Friday to near 600dam. Temps will get a bump across western NM as a result. Meanwhile, the boundary nudging up to the Central Mountain Chain will be a focus for more thunderstorm activity once again. Outflows will result in a gap wind in the Rio Grande Valley, which will push low level moisture westward. As a result Saturday looks to be quite active areawide as well, though finally with a little more storm motion. Drier air may filter in from the northeast on Sunday, reducing thunderstorm coverage.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

An outflow boundary moving into NE NM will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms for the next 1-3 hours. Elsewhere, storms will continue to diminish over the next hour. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will favor the high terrain Monday afternoon, but coverage should be slightly less than on Sunday. A few storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and brief IFR vsbys, but confidence is low that any will directly impact a TAF site attm. Gusty winds will also be possible with the stronger storms. Storms will diminish around or shortly after 06Z Tue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. An upper level high meandering over and near NM will keep temperatures at or above normal through the week. Moisture beneath the high will fuel daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The most active days look to be Tuesday, Friday and Saturday. Slow storm motions can be expected through Thursday, then storms will start moving toward the south and southwest starting Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds will be the rule. Lightning may still cause new fires in pockets of dry fuel.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 98 69 100 69 / 0 5 5 10 Dulce........................... 95 58 97 57 / 10 10 20 30 Cuba............................ 93 63 94 62 / 10 10 10 40 Gallup.......................... 91 62 92 61 / 10 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 87 60 89 59 / 20 20 40 40 Grants.......................... 92 63 93 62 / 30 20 30 30 Quemado......................... 88 62 89 60 / 10 20 50 40 Magdalena....................... 91 67 92 66 / 30 20 30 30 Datil........................... 87 62 88 61 / 30 20 50 40 Reserve......................... 94 61 95 60 / 30 20 50 30 Glenwood........................ 99 65 100 63 / 20 20 60 30 Chama........................... 88 56 88 55 / 20 10 30 50 Los Alamos...................... 93 68 92 66 / 20 20 50 60 Pecos........................... 94 63 92 60 / 20 20 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 91 59 89 58 / 30 30 40 60 Red River....................... 81 52 79 51 / 50 40 70 50 Angel Fire...................... 86 51 84 49 / 40 30 70 40 Taos............................ 94 61 92 59 / 20 20 40 50 Mora............................ 91 60 88 58 / 30 30 70 40 Espanola........................ 100 69 98 67 / 10 20 30 50 Santa Fe........................ 94 67 92 65 / 10 20 50 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 97 66 96 64 / 10 20 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 99 73 99 70 / 0 20 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 72 100 70 / 0 20 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 103 71 102 69 / 5 20 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 73 100 71 / 0 20 20 40 Belen........................... 102 72 102 69 / 5 20 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 102 72 101 69 / 0 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 102 70 101 67 / 5 20 20 40 Corrales........................ 102 72 102 70 / 0 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 102 71 101 68 / 5 20 20 40 Placitas........................ 97 70 97 68 / 0 20 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 100 72 101 70 / 0 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 103 75 103 73 / 10 20 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 95 66 94 64 / 5 20 50 40 Tijeras......................... 95 67 94 64 / 0 20 50 40 Edgewood........................ 97 64 96 61 / 5 20 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 98 62 96 58 / 5 20 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 92 64 91 60 / 10 20 50 50 Mountainair..................... 96 64 95 62 / 5 20 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 94 65 94 62 / 0 20 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 98 72 98 68 / 0 10 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 91 67 91 64 / 20 10 30 20 Capulin......................... 94 60 89 59 / 20 40 70 60 Raton........................... 99 61 94 58 / 20 30 60 50 Springer........................ 101 63 96 60 / 20 30 40 50 Las Vegas....................... 94 62 91 60 / 20 20 50 40 Clayton......................... 104 70 98 67 / 20 20 20 30 Roy............................. 98 67 94 64 / 10 20 30 40 Conchas......................... 105 71 102 68 / 0 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 102 69 99 66 / 0 10 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 107 73 104 71 / 0 10 20 30 Clovis.......................... 104 71 104 69 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 105 72 104 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 104 72 104 71 / 0 5 0 20 Roswell......................... 106 75 106 74 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 101 70 100 68 / 5 5 5 0 Elk............................. 98 67 98 66 / 20 0 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ217-219-221-228-230>232-234>238.