textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Friday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a risk of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars.

- Some storms over west central and northwest areas will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

An upper level low is lifting into the northern Rockies, leaving a lighter southwesterly flow aloft over NM (wind speeds reducing to 10 to 20 kt at 700 mb). Geopotential heights will rise in this flow, allowing temperatures to gain a couple to a few degrees today. At the surface, a weak lee-side surface trough will develop close to the Sangre de Cristos, but will not be very well organized with a weak surface gradient keeping winds light to moderate (5 to 15 mph with slightly higher gusts in the northeast highlands).

Return flow at the surface will usher in higher dewpoints tonight into Monday morning over southeastern NM with any low stratus clouds mostly staying just outside of our southeastern counties. The moisture will mix out slightly into the afternoon with surface dewpoints hovering in the upper 30's to low 40's over Lincoln, Guadalupe, and Quay counties, as well as points southeastward Monday afternoon. This will likely be just enough to spark a few high-based showers and brief storms in these southeastern counties. Surface dewpoints will not rise much elsewhere, but with heights continuing to rise and boost temperatures up another couple degrees, this could allow areas along the Continental Divide, and secondarily the northeast highlands, to reach their convective temperatures with very high-based cumulus and some weak virga developing. Measurable rain would be hard to come by anywhere Monday, but the high terrain of Lincoln county will stand the best chances to receive a few hundredths of an inch.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

The return flow will continue to steer higher dewpoints into west TX and eastern NM Monday night through Tuesday with moisture also trying to creep up the lower Rio Grande valley. The moisture is not modeled to mix out through Tuesday afternoon over the eastern half of NM with most of it reaching upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints (deg F) while PWATs soar to 0.75 to 1.2 inch with more subdued values reaching between the middle to lower Rio Grande valley and Continental Divide. The introduction of the moisture with warm temperatures will lead to convective initiation over these areas through the afternoon, and in typical late-June- fashion, the outflows will help push the moisture farther west Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is model consensus for nocturnal convection to persist over the eastern plains, but central and western zones are shown to undergo a cessation of storms overnight. While the eastern plains may be rather stable and shrouded in debris clouds, the high terrain along and west of the central mountain chain should destabilize quickly into the early afternoon with storms initiating farther west and propagating along outflows farther west than Tuesday. There would be a gentle upstream upper trough over southern CA Tuesday, inching into the Gulf of CA as a very weak closed low on Wednesday. This would introduce light south southwesterlies aloft, keeping the shear relatively light, but enough veering will be present where surface flow stays easterly to produce marginally strong to severe storms each day. Rainfall rates would be high in the eastern half of the state (1 to 2 inches per hour) while areas near and west of the Rio Grande would quickly morph to higher based cells with less efficient rainfall.

The fate of the Gulf of CA low begins to lose model consensus Thursday into next weekend, but all members suggest it will lift inland and northeastward, crossing NM at some point in the middle of this time range. This will introduce changing wind directions aloft, but speeds will remain very light regardless of which model solution pans out. This leaves much of the sensible weather dependent on low layer moisture. Plenty looks to be left behind for daily rounds of convection initiated via diurnal heating with no clear cut surface boundaries to add any other triggers. In fact, weak lee side surface troughs are modeled by most members each day. Blended guidance from the NBM has increased POPs for Thursday which seems reasonable with a day-by-day trend of lowering rain chances into the weekend as the recycling of available moisture loses efficiency. This suggests very minimal chances by next Sunday with the remnants of the upper trough/low having exited and drier, more subsident air filling behind.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026 Mostly clear skies, light to moderate breezes, and VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across northern and central New Mexico.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Wind speeds aloft reduce today into Monday with weaker and less prominent lee-side surface troughs each afternoon. This will cause surface/20ft wind speeds to reduce both days, yet breezy and dry conditions will be observed each afternoon. Temperatures warm a couple to a few degrees each day. Very low afternoon RH (5 to 15% each day)is forecast today with less efficient overnight RH recoveries tonight, although the east central plains will observe a slight uptick in dewpoints/humidity into Monday, leading to a few weak showers, dry thunderstorms, and/or virga.

The weather pattern undergoes a stark change into Tuesday and Wednesday though, as the moist return flow from the Gulf arrives, bringing wetting storms, higher humidity, and moderated temperatures. Wetting storms will be most numerous along and east of the central mountain chain with storms tending to be less efficient at rainfall production from the Rio Grande toward the Continental Divide. Unfortunately, areas west of the Continental Divide, and especially the northwest plateau and surrounding highlands will have difficulty getting any measurable rainfall due to fewer, drier storms. Therefore, new fire ignitions from lightning will pose concern in western zones.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 83 47 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 36 85 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 80 46 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 82 40 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 80 44 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 85 45 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 83 46 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 84 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 82 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 87 43 90 47 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 91 48 95 50 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 75 38 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 80 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 81 47 85 52 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 47 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 74 38 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 75 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 81 44 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 81 46 83 52 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 87 50 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 81 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 51 87 57 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 56 94 61 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 91 54 94 58 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 88 57 93 63 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 89 53 93 58 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 90 57 93 63 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 90 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 85 58 89 63 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 88 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 94 60 97 64 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 86 51 90 55 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 86 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 45 89 53 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 82 51 85 55 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 85 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 84 52 87 56 / 0 0 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 88 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 82 55 83 57 / 0 0 40 10 Capulin......................... 77 46 82 50 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 83 46 87 51 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 85 45 88 52 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 82 47 86 53 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 85 53 89 58 / 0 0 10 10 Roy............................. 82 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 91 55 94 60 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 88 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 94 60 97 63 / 0 0 10 10 Clovis.......................... 94 60 95 63 / 0 0 20 20 Portales........................ 95 61 96 63 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 91 58 94 61 / 0 0 10 20 Roswell......................... 97 64 96 66 / 0 0 20 20 Picacho......................... 92 56 91 59 / 0 0 40 20 Elk............................. 92 56 92 58 / 0 0 40 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.