textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 443 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Strong to potentially damaging westerly winds for eastern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday. Dangerous travel may occur for high-profile vehicles with areas of blowing dust creating low visibility at times.

- Periods of mountain snow and blowing snow across western and north central New Mexico Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Slick and hazardous travel may occur with strong winds, blowing snow, and low visibility at times. Snow may spread to a larger area of northern and central New Mexico by Friday.

- There is an increasing threat for rapid fire spread across eastern New Mexico through much of this work week (peaking Wednesday) along with portions of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 119 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

High and mid level cloud coverage is increasing from west to east across the state this President's Day as a strong upper level trough pushes into the Pacific Coast. Upper and mid level winds have increased across the state with 700 mb winds around 30 to 40 kts. This has resulted in stronger southwest breezes across the highlands and northeast and east central plains with gusts peaking at around 30 to 40 mph. With the downslope winds, especially along and east of the central mountain chain, high temperatures this afternoon will be 10 to 20 degrees above average with upper 60s to low 70s in the middle and lower RGV and mid 70s to near 80 across the eastern plains! Southwest winds will increase further Monday night, especially across the higher terrain with peak gusts of around 50 to 55 mph come sunrise Tuesday morning, as 700 mb winds increase to 45 to 60 kts. These winds will keep overnight temperatures relatively mild in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

The first of a series of shortwaves around a ~ 515 dam upper level low off the coast of Washington and British Columbia moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies Tuesday morning. A plume of Pacific moisture along and just behind a Pacific cold front will result in lower elevation rain/snow and mountain snow across western and north central NM mid Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Rain across lower elevations of western NM will probably quickly change over to snow as this band moves through due to 700 mb temperatures falling from around -1 down to -6 to -8 deg C behind the Pacific front. The HREF shows high potential for a snow squall across the west central plateau and highlands (including Gallup, Dulce, and the Continental Divide at I-40) and if this does materialize, a snow squall warning may need to be issued for this band. The heaviest precipitation will favor the west slopes of the western and north central mountains. A quick burst of potentially 3 to 7 inches of snow could fall across the peaks of the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountain through early Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph will result in near whiteout conditions from blowing snow and extremely hazardous driving conditions across high mountain passes, even after the snow stops accumulating early Tuesday afternoon. For that reason, the Winter Storm Watches across the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings Precipitation will likely not make it into the RGV and areas east of the central mountain chain due to drying effects from downsloping.

The other significant hazard on Tuesday will be strong to damaging west-southwest to west winds across central and eastern NM. Still looking at a strong Pacific jet with speeds ranging from 150 to 180 kts at 250 mb across northern and central NM. Subsidence behind the Pacific front will allow these stronger winds higher up along with 700 mb winds of 45 to 60 kts to translate down to the surface late Tuesday morning resulting in widespread sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph with peak gusts of 50 to 70 mph. The northeast and central highlands and northeast and east central plains will see the upper end of this range of winds. The High Wind Watch along and east of the central mountain chain has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Zones in central NM west of the High Wind Warning (including Taos, Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Grants, the Albuquerque Metro, and Socorro) are now under Wind Advisories due to expected gusts of 50 to 58 mph. There a good likelihood the Sandia and Manzano Mountains will be upgraded to a High Wind Warning by tomorrow morning due to potential high wind gusts on Sandia Crest and areas just east, including Edgewood. With the strong downsloping winds, rapid fire spread will also be a concern across the eastern plains and northeast highlands. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to mid 20s, but the very strong winds will overcome the marginal humidity values and allow any potential fire to spread among fine fuels. Winds taper off slowly after sunset but remain elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as mid and upper level flow remain brisk at the base of the longwave trough.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 119 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

The next shortwave at the base of the longwave troughing over the western U.S. approaches the state during the day Wednesday. 700 mb winds around 40 to 50 kts combined with a 990 to 995 mb surface lee low over eastern CO will keep winds strong, thankfully not as strong as Tuesday. Another set of Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the West Central Plateau, central mountain chain, and adjacent eastern highlands. Will let later shifts issue this advisory to simplify messaging. Minimum relative humidity values across the middle and lower RGV and eastern NM will be lower than Tuesday at around 10 to 20 percent due to drier air in place. Tuesday's winds will help set the stage for a more favorable threat for rapid fire spread on Wednesday. Mostly orographically favored precipitation will develop once again across northwest and north central NM Wednesday spreading into lower elevations of northwest and west central NM Wednesday evening and night as the shortwave and Pacific cold front moves through. Most of the precipitation looks to be in the form of snow due to 700 mb temperatures at around -6 to -10 deg C. Precip looks to taper off mid Thursday morning as this shortwave exits into the central Great Plains.

Thursday looks to be not as impactful as Tuesday and Wednesday as mid range guidance still shows the state in quasizonal flow between the Wednesday night's upper level shortwave over the central Great Plains and the next shortwave along the Pacific coast. Still looking at gusty west winds for many with the strongest winds across the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands and plains. Another set of Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast and central highlands. Potential for rapid fire spread among fine fuels once again across the northeast and east central highlands and plains.

The upper level shortwave over the Pacific Coast Thursday moves inland over the Great Basin and Intermountain West on Friday. Most of the ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance show the shortwave brushing New Mexico with precipitation favoring western and north central areas and strong dry west winds along and east of the central mountain chain. The deterministic GFS and some of its ensemble members show a deeper shortwave/potential closed low moving through the state Friday. This deeper and less likely (~20%) scenario would result in more widespread precipitation across northern and central NM along with a backdoor front across northeast NM. Temperatures during the Wednesday through Friday period will be colder across north central NM and west of the RGV while locations across the middle and lower RGV and eastern NM cool down less due to downsloping west winds counteracting the lowering heights. The active storm cycle finally ends this weekend with dry west-northwest flow on Saturday and upper level ridging moving overhead on Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds just off the sfc will rapidly intensify from the west over the next 6-12 hours, creating LLWS at most sites outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which should remain sheltered enough. Winds at the sfc will slowly intensify overnight, becoming much stronger after around 15Z tomorrow when the boundary layer deepens. A Pacific front will enter from the west around 09Z, rapidly moving eastward through the morning into the afternoon. RA/SN will accompany the frontal passage, with rain changing over to snow as temperatures rapidly drop. Accumulations are not likely on runways given the warm sfc temps, but BLSN could briefly reduce visibility lower than currently forecast in TAFs at sites such as KGUP and KFMN. Showers will begin to weaken as the approach the RGV, with low confidence that they will produce rain that reaches the ground at KABQ and KAEG. Very strong winds are likely throughout much of the region tomorrow, with gusts of 35 to 55 kts commonplace throughout the afternoon hours. This may create areas of blowing dust in eastern NM, although the coverage and intensity is difficult to pinpoint at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK...

Critical fire weather conditions across parts of northeast New Mexico this afternoon due to breezy southwest winds and minimum relative humidity values in the low teens. Much stronger to damaging southwest to west winds will impact New Mexico tomorrow as the disturbance moves through the region with critical fire weather over a larger area of eastern NM. Peak wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph along with marginal minimum humidity values of 15 to 30% will allow for any potential fire to spread rapidly east. Winds remain pretty gusty on Wednesday, but thankfully not as strong as tomorrow as a second disturbance approaches the state. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph combined with lower minimum relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent will result in better potential for rapid fire spread among drier fine fuels across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern highlands and plains. Gusty west winds similar to Wednesday continue on Thursday behind the second disturbance and ahead of a third disturbance. These gusty winds with minimum relative humidity values slightly higher at around 12 to 20% across the northeast highlands and eastern plains will result in another day of potential rapid fire spread among fine fuels across this part of the state. West winds look to ramp up once again on Friday as the third disturbance moves through the state. Some uncertainty exists in the track of this third disturbance, but a northern track would result in dry gusty west winds and another day of critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 38 48 31 45 / 40 80 10 70 Dulce........................... 32 41 24 40 / 60 90 30 90 Cuba............................ 33 42 22 43 / 10 80 5 50 Gallup.......................... 35 43 26 41 / 60 90 0 50 El Morro........................ 35 40 23 41 / 20 90 0 30 Grants.......................... 36 44 22 46 / 10 80 0 20 Quemado......................... 36 45 26 46 / 10 60 0 20 Magdalena....................... 41 51 30 54 / 0 20 0 0 Datil........................... 37 44 27 45 / 0 40 0 0 Reserve......................... 37 47 28 47 / 40 90 0 20 Glenwood........................ 40 50 31 52 / 30 90 0 20 Chama........................... 28 35 19 33 / 50 100 40 80 Los Alamos...................... 38 44 25 44 / 10 70 5 40 Pecos........................... 35 47 22 48 / 5 60 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 41 21 37 / 5 90 10 50 Red River....................... 27 33 15 30 / 5 90 20 50 Angel Fire...................... 30 39 15 35 / 5 90 10 40 Taos............................ 35 43 21 43 / 10 80 10 40 Mora............................ 37 49 22 47 / 0 60 10 20 Espanola........................ 39 55 24 53 / 10 30 5 30 Santa Fe........................ 37 47 25 48 / 5 50 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 38 51 25 51 / 5 30 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 54 31 57 / 5 20 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 56 30 59 / 0 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 59 29 62 / 0 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 57 29 59 / 5 10 0 5 Belen........................... 43 62 28 62 / 5 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 57 30 59 / 5 20 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 42 60 28 62 / 5 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 57 29 60 / 5 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 43 60 28 62 / 5 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 54 30 54 / 5 30 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 40 56 29 59 / 5 10 0 10 Socorro......................... 45 63 30 65 / 0 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 50 27 52 / 0 50 0 10 Tijeras......................... 40 51 28 52 / 5 40 0 10 Edgewood........................ 40 52 24 55 / 5 50 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 54 21 57 / 5 40 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 37 49 23 52 / 0 30 0 0 Mountainair..................... 40 54 26 56 / 5 30 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 56 27 56 / 0 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 46 57 32 57 / 0 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 42 51 30 52 / 0 30 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 56 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 37 56 24 51 / 0 10 0 5 Springer........................ 43 60 25 55 / 0 10 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 41 53 23 52 / 0 20 0 5 Clayton......................... 48 65 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 60 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 64 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 70 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 47 71 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 47 73 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 47 69 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 46 74 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 48 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ212-215- 223-226>240.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ104-123- 126.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-106-123-125-126.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ207-208-211- 216>222-224-225.

Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ210.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ213- 214.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ123.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ202.