textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- A high risk of rapid fire spread due to dry and gusty conditions will continue today and Tuesday east of the central mountain chain.

- Widespread rain returns Thursday through Saturday with several inches of high mountain snow accumulating in northern New Mexico. Winter travel conditions are likely in the northern mountains, especially Thursday night and Friday.

- Gusty east crosswinds will develop below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A weak and dry shortwave trough will trek over northern NM and southern CO this morning, dragging stronger winds aloft across the forecast area. The shortwave will then translate into the southern plains through the afternoon with a slow reduction in speeds aloft. This will translate to breezy to windy conditions at the surface today with the central highlands to east central plains observing the strongest gusts of 30 to 40 mph. At the surface, a backdoor cold front has entered Union and eastern Colfax counties in northeastern NM, and this boundary will struggle to make much headway, eventually retreating northeastward as a weak surface low moves in by late afternoon. Higher surface dewpoints are currently moving in behind this backdoor front, but they are largely projected to become scoured out by late afternoon once the surface low moves back over Union county. Elsewhere, very low single digit to sub-zero dewpoint readings (in F) will be common, and the combination of low relative humidity and gusty conditions will keep fire danger high this afternoon. Cirrus clouds are currently thinning out, but will re- enter NM late this afternoon into the overnight. Today's high temperatures will run close to normal, within a few degrees either side.

The aforementioned backdoor cold front will gain another push tonight into Wednesday morning with northeasterly gusts spreading over the plains. The front will also encroach upon the central mountain chain and the Rio Grande valley near or just after midnight (after midnight near ABQ). A few low stratus clouds over eastern zones are modeled by the NAM, HREF, and inherent CAMs with the east slopes of the central mountain chain best poised to see development Wednesday morning. Any low clouds would erode away through late Wednesday morning with surface winds veering southerly in the plains by the afternoon. The polar and subtropical jets will have undergone a merging over AZ and NM by this time Wednesday, but wind speeds at 700 mb are generally staying within a 15-30 kt range, which would be a reasonable gust approximation by Wednesday afternoon, especially in western zones where the westerly direction would be more consistent throughout the entire deeply mixed boundary layer. Northeast highland areas would stay closer to a 25 to 30 kt gust range due to the tighter surface gradient there. Temperatures would run a couple to a few degrees cooler in the eastern plains due to the previous frontal intrusion, but western zones will actually gain a couple degrees Wednesday. Notable dewpoint rises would also be observed in the eastern plains.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A second push of the front will come in late Wednesday into Thursday morning, ushering in higher surface dewpoints and upslope easterly flow for many eastern to central zones. Meanwhile, upstream in the upper levels a subtropical low will be crossing the Baja peninsula just as the polar jet sends another trough toward the Four Corners. The subtropical perturbation looks to impact mostly southern NM with increased PWATs and precipitation through late Thursday into Friday morning while the northern stream shortwave absorbs additional pressure falls that would impact more northern sections of the state Friday into Saturday. The cool, moist, and stable airmass over the east will persist through this time, lending toward more widespread stratiform rainfall there and several inches of wet, late season snow on the northern peaks. NBM versions 4.3 and 5.0 paint 10-15 inches over many Sangre de Cristo peaks by Sunday morning, and with persistent easterly upslope flow, this seems reasonable. As for lower elevation rainfall, the far eastern plains look to receive the most QPF upwards of 1.0 to 1.5 inches with the latest NBM 5.0 showing considerably higher amounts. The stratiform nature of the rain in these eastern zones would seem to suggest lower amounts, but this will be one of the more longer duration rain events seen in a long time, 30-48 hours for some eastern locales. Pressure rises and subsidence would start building in late Saturday into Saturday night, causing precipitation to dwindle.

A ridge of high pressure would then build over the southern Rockies Sunday through Tuesday of next week, keeping minimal chances for precipitation while temperatures work their way back toward normalcy. Much higher surface dewpoints (in the 20's and 30's deg F) would complement this regime with a lighter wind field that would bring a welcome respite from high fire danger.

There is large uncertainty at this point, but a strong closed low is slated to enter NM by Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures and at least spotty to scattered showers for northern portions of the forecast area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A weak upper level disturbance will cross the northern part of the state, leading to an increase in winds aloft (speeds rising to 30 to 40 kt at 10,000 ft MSL), and this will keep gusty conditions at the surface along and just downwind (east) of the central mountain chain through the morning. Winds aloft will decrease in speed through the afternoon, but breezy to windy conditions will still persist at the surface with the strongest gusts of 30 to 40 kt focusing near KCQC, KSXU, KTCC, and KCVN this afternoon. Winds will start to decrease in speed THIS evening, but a cold front will arrive from the northeast, stirring up gusts in the eastern half of New Mexico overnight into Wednesday morning. This front will also spread MVFR ceilings (below 3,000 ft) over east slopes of the central mountain chain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Breezy to windy conditions will redevelop again today with a fast- moving shortwave trough crossing northern NM early today. A backdoor cold front will disrupt things in northeastern NM, but should retreat late this afternoon before regaining momentum this evening. This will place the central highlands and east central plains of NM at highest risk for critical wind speeds while all areas suffer from even drier conditions than yesterday with widespread sub-10% RH. The Red Flag Warning will continue for all of northeastern and east central NM, but there are growing doubts that northeastern zones will meet the wind criteria due to the aforementioned front which has already nosed its way into Union and eastern Colfax counties.

The front will gain momentum and move over eastern zones tonight, stirring up some nocturnal gusts, but also bringing in considerable rises to dewpoints and humidity. This will suppress the critical fire threat for most of the plains going into Wednesday, but the central to northeast highlands may flirt with marginally critical conditions where the lee-side surface trough will redevelop and humidity will be lower along with higher gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

A long overdue break from critical conditions looks to arrive Thursday into Friday and Saturday as a pair of disturbances aloft combine with moist easterly upslope flow, producing much greater potential for soaking rainfall and northern mountain snow. This event would favor the eastern plains and northern mountains for rain/snow, but even western zones look to receive a tenth of an inch or two. Even after this precipitation event subsides, lighter winds and considerably higher dewpoints will linger into Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of next week which will help fend off widespread fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 62 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 64 34 69 39 / 0 0 0 20 Gallup.......................... 66 28 69 36 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 64 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 70 30 71 36 / 0 0 0 20 Quemado......................... 70 35 70 41 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 74 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 30 Datil........................... 70 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 30 Reserve......................... 75 35 75 39 / 0 0 5 30 Glenwood........................ 79 40 79 44 / 0 0 5 30 Chama........................... 57 28 62 31 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 65 43 68 47 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 65 35 69 40 / 0 0 5 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 36 65 39 / 0 0 10 30 Red River....................... 52 30 56 32 / 0 0 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 58 23 61 26 / 0 0 10 40 Taos............................ 65 30 69 34 / 0 0 5 30 Mora............................ 66 32 68 36 / 0 0 5 30 Espanola........................ 73 38 75 44 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 66 42 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 38 72 44 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 43 81 49 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 20 Belen........................... 80 41 80 47 / 0 0 0 20 Bernalillo...................... 77 43 79 50 / 0 0 0 20 Bosque Farms.................... 79 39 80 45 / 0 0 0 20 Corrales........................ 78 44 79 51 / 0 0 0 20 Los Lunas....................... 79 40 80 47 / 0 0 0 20 Placitas........................ 71 46 74 51 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 77 45 79 52 / 0 0 0 20 Socorro......................... 83 47 83 52 / 0 0 0 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 68 42 71 47 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 70 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 70 37 73 43 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 31 74 38 / 0 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 67 35 69 42 / 0 0 0 20 Mountainair..................... 72 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 30 Gran Quivira.................... 71 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 30 Carrizozo....................... 76 50 76 51 / 0 0 0 30 Ruidoso......................... 69 48 69 48 / 0 0 5 30 Capulin......................... 67 29 62 34 / 0 5 30 60 Raton........................... 70 30 67 36 / 0 0 20 50 Springer........................ 72 33 70 38 / 0 0 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 68 33 68 39 / 0 0 5 30 Clayton......................... 75 35 67 40 / 0 5 10 50 Roy............................. 73 35 67 41 / 0 0 10 40 Conchas......................... 81 41 77 46 / 0 0 5 30 Santa Rosa...................... 75 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 83 43 76 47 / 0 0 0 30 Clovis.......................... 83 45 76 49 / 0 0 0 30 Portales........................ 85 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Sumner..................... 83 44 77 49 / 0 0 0 20 Roswell......................... 88 52 82 56 / 0 0 0 30 Picacho......................... 82 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 30 Elk............................. 81 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.