textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may threaten frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

High pressure remains across southwest CONUS this afternoon, producing west to northwest flow across a majority of New Mexico. The state is split up in two halves from southwest to northeast based on analyzed PWAT values. For northwest, west, and a chunk of central NM, drier air is infiltrating and allowing for humidity values to plummet (already 12% RH at Farmington as of 12pm). The 18z ABQ sounding measured 0.55 PWAT and shows a substantial layer of dry air in the mid to low levels. This sets the stage for a mainly clear and hot day for those area, with breezy northwest to west winds. For south and east areas, PWAT values exceed 1" as moisture is leftover from yesterday's activity. A generous crop of showers and storms are already forming across the Sacramento Mountains and near Roosevelt County. These storms should slowly meander southward, with short lifespans to limit any flooding threat. In addition, these early storms have stayed off the Ruidoso burn scars, which further limits any threat of flash flooding. Across northeast and east central NM, bulk shear values are forecast to increase up to 30-40kts, sufficient for any strong to severe storms to develop. This is a somewhat conditional threat however, because confidence is low on if a storm can actually develop within this favorable environment. The main message for storms is that, should a storm develop, it will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition to storms, record high temperatures will be challenged at several locations across the state, primarily in central and eastern NM.

Drier air continues to filter into New Mexico for Friday, nearly shutting off precipitation chances for the area. The only outlier to this will be far western NM, against the AZ border. Forecast soundings show a favorable environment for the development of high- based virga showers with very little to no appreciable rainfall. This is likely to be the only favored area for any rain to reach the ground tomorrow across our forecast area. Everywhere else will see continued above-average temperatures (90s-100s), with several records being challenged or broken.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This drier pattern begins to give way to better moisture this weekend. The center of the high pressure shifts further east, sliding slowly across NM and allowing moisture to gradually increase underneath in and on its western periphery. Precipitation on Saturday likely remains confined to the high terrain across our area, especially across our southwest mountains. The high shifts further eastward on Sunday, aided by a sharp trough pushing its way into the Pacific Northwest. This looks to create another convergent flow of moisture across AZ and NM going into Sunday and early next week. With that, precipitation chances greatly increase across our area, specifically the central mountain chain westward. This favors to be the start of an active wet pattern going through at least the middle of next week. Through each day, scattered to numerous are favored across most of the area, especially western NM. Deterministic models differ on whether we can get additional forcing from speed maxes moving through the trough (which could increase coverage and intensity of precipitation at times). They also differ on if a backdoor front or general moisture boundary moves into NM during the early to middle part of next week. This would increase moisture especially across eastern NM. Main messages with the long term period is that a favorable pattern for more widespread precipitation is forecast starting Sunday and into next week, though details for each day remain fuzzy currently.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A few isolated thunderstorms are threatening locally gusty winds, hail, and lightning along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the southeastern quadrant of NM from KCVN to KROW. This activity will clear this evening alongside calming W/NW winds elsewhere across central and western NM with VFR prevailing areawide thru tonight. There may be a few isolated pockets of patchy fog Friday morning, mainly favoring KAXX in the Moreno Valley. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will be favored alongside breezy W/NW winds thru central and western NM. Some of this drier air will advance into eastern NM Friday afternoon as W/SW wind direction, reaching the TX border last.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. With that being said, isolated elevated fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon, driven by the single digit humidity values forecast from Farmington to ABQ. Winds are expected to remain well below critical thresholds, but with lightning having occurred over the area within the last few days, these dry and windy conditions may ignite new fires. Another day of low teens humidity is likely tomorrow, though winds looks to decrease from today. A few high based virga showers may develop across western NM, producing strong outflow winds and the low chance of a dry lightning strike. Going into the weekend, the chance of wetting precipitation increases each day, with Sunday through at least Tuesday having good chances for rainfall across central and western NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 92 59 91 / 0 5 10 0 Dulce........................... 42 90 46 89 / 0 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 52 88 55 87 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 52 90 54 86 / 0 20 20 10 El Morro........................ 51 85 52 84 / 0 5 20 10 Grants.......................... 54 89 57 88 / 0 5 10 10 Quemado......................... 56 85 56 84 / 0 10 20 20 Magdalena....................... 59 88 62 87 / 0 5 10 30 Datil........................... 56 84 57 83 / 0 5 5 30 Reserve......................... 55 90 56 89 / 0 20 20 40 Glenwood........................ 61 95 60 95 / 5 20 20 10 Chama........................... 47 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 53 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 45 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 36 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 48 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 50 87 56 86 / 5 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 56 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 58 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 97 65 96 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 95 67 95 / 0 0 5 0 Belen........................... 60 97 64 96 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 61 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 96 63 96 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 62 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 60 96 64 96 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 61 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 98 70 97 / 0 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 53 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 93 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 56 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 63 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 50 Capulin......................... 53 86 56 85 / 20 0 0 5 Raton........................... 51 91 53 90 / 20 0 0 10 Springer........................ 52 93 54 92 / 20 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 53 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 59 93 62 91 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 56 91 59 91 / 20 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 62 99 64 99 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 97 65 96 / 20 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 63 99 65 99 / 20 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 65 99 67 100 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 65 100 68 100 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 100 65 100 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 68 102 69 101 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 96 65 97 / 5 5 0 30 Elk............................. 59 93 62 93 / 10 10 0 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.