textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread heavy rain Tuesday through Wednesday night with a very good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon surge should continue at a less intense pace Thursday and Friday, when locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat as precipitation amounts generally trend downward with each day.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The westerlies have steered much drier air over the region per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and this is reflected in a much lower PWAT of 0.59" on the 18Z KABQ upper air sounding. This relatively dry atmosphere is forecast to persist into Monday, providing a two day break before the next Monsoon moisture surge on Tuesday. However, a few storms may spark across far eastern NM Monday afternoon/evening along and immediately behind a backdoor front, forecast to make westward progress into central NM Monday night. The front will create a gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Monday night, but the latest guidance has backed off the speeds some compared to yesterday's 12Z modeling. We're still looking at speeds below advisory criteria in eastern Albuquerque below Tijeras Canyon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Moisture advection will ramp up significantly Tuesday into Wednesday, partially attributable to moisture transport behind the backdoor front and mostly because of an impressive Monsoon moisture plume that is forecast to stand up over the region. The squeeze play between an approaching Pacific low and the upper high along the TX coast will play out Tue/Wed in a very wet scenario, with continuation into Thu/Fri across eastern NM. PWATs are forecast to rise up and challenge calendar day records Tue/Wed and then settle back down to between the 90th percentile and calendar day records Thu/Fri. WPC has included much of our area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday and will likely see an upgrade for Wednesday to a moderate risk for east central and south central portions of NM. Deeper convection with higher rainfall rates are likely Tuesday on the front end of the moisture advection due to greater instability, especially across western NM. Widespread showers with embedded thunder are forecast late Tuesday night through Wednesday, so rainfall rates will likely retreat due to much less instability with a rain- cooled lower boundary layer. The high temperature forecast for our area on Wednesday continues to trend down and we're lagging the GFS MOS, which currently shows a high of 64 degrees at the Albuquerque Sunport. The Pacific low is forecast to open up and pull northeast away from the region around the upper high circulation late Wednesday into Thursday, reorienting the Monsoon moisture plume to more over eastern NM where a continued heavy rainfall and flood threat will reside. River flooding is possible Wed/Thu, but more likely Thursday across eastern NM as two days worth of rainfall runoff gradually makes it's way into the main stems. PWATs will trend down Friday through the weekend as the upper high over TX ridges westward across northern MX and shuts our moisture tap off. Residual moisture will be sufficient for more limited daily rounds of convection Friday through Sunday, while temperatures trend back up closer to average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with the development of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds across western NM overnight. Showers may move in the vicinity of KROW this afternoon, but are not forecast to impact the terminal. Winds will generally be light, except for some minor gustiness behind a backdoor front across northeast NM early Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as an active late Monsoon pattern persists. Notable drying of the atmosphere today into Monday, but moisture advection will ramp up beginning Monday night and continue into Wednesday as another Monsoon moisture plume stands up over the region. The result will be high humidity and soaking rainfall during the Tuesday through Thursday period, with potential for flash flooding both on and off area burn scars. PWATs will trend down late in the week through the weekend and be associated with a gradual downtrend in humidity and daily rounds of wetting storms. Winds will generally be light through the period, except for gusty and erratic winds associated with showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 80 54 79 / 0 0 5 50 Dulce........................... 37 77 39 75 / 0 0 5 60 Cuba............................ 47 74 50 71 / 0 0 10 50 Gallup.......................... 45 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 60 El Morro........................ 45 74 48 72 / 0 0 5 70 Grants.......................... 47 77 51 74 / 0 0 5 70 Quemado......................... 49 76 52 74 / 0 0 5 70 Magdalena....................... 53 77 56 73 / 0 0 10 60 Datil........................... 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 70 Reserve......................... 50 81 52 78 / 0 0 5 60 Glenwood........................ 57 87 59 83 / 0 0 5 50 Chama........................... 40 71 44 69 / 0 0 5 60 Los Alamos...................... 52 75 55 71 / 0 0 20 60 Pecos........................... 48 76 52 71 / 0 0 40 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 73 48 71 / 0 0 10 50 Red River....................... 38 65 40 63 / 0 0 20 60 Angel Fire...................... 32 70 34 67 / 0 0 20 70 Taos............................ 42 76 45 74 / 0 0 10 50 Mora............................ 46 73 48 68 / 0 10 50 70 Espanola........................ 49 81 53 78 / 0 0 10 50 Santa Fe........................ 52 76 55 72 / 0 0 20 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 79 55 75 / 0 0 10 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 82 60 78 / 0 0 10 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 82 58 78 / 0 0 10 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 83 57 80 / 0 0 10 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 82 59 78 / 0 0 10 60 Belen........................... 53 84 57 80 / 0 0 10 50 Bernalillo...................... 54 83 59 79 / 0 0 10 70 Bosque Farms.................... 52 84 55 80 / 0 0 10 60 Corrales........................ 54 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 60 Los Lunas....................... 54 84 57 80 / 0 0 10 50 Placitas........................ 55 81 58 76 / 0 0 10 70 Rio Rancho...................... 54 82 58 78 / 0 0 10 60 Socorro......................... 59 86 61 81 / 0 0 10 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 76 54 72 / 0 0 20 80 Tijeras......................... 55 78 56 74 / 0 0 20 80 Edgewood........................ 50 79 53 74 / 0 0 20 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 81 50 75 / 0 0 20 80 Clines Corners.................. 51 76 52 69 / 0 0 30 80 Mountainair..................... 51 79 52 74 / 0 0 10 80 Gran Quivira.................... 51 79 54 74 / 0 0 10 80 Carrizozo....................... 59 84 59 77 / 0 0 10 80 Ruidoso......................... 53 76 53 69 / 0 0 30 80 Capulin......................... 51 70 50 70 / 40 40 40 40 Raton........................... 49 76 50 74 / 20 10 40 50 Springer........................ 49 78 51 75 / 10 10 40 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 74 52 69 / 5 5 50 70 Clayton......................... 57 72 55 75 / 40 60 40 30 Roy............................. 55 73 54 71 / 10 20 50 40 Conchas......................... 60 82 60 79 / 0 10 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 57 81 59 76 / 0 0 40 60 Tucumcari....................... 60 80 59 79 / 0 5 40 50 Clovis.......................... 60 84 59 78 / 10 30 30 50 Portales........................ 61 85 60 78 / 10 30 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 58 87 61 79 / 0 0 20 70 Roswell......................... 61 92 63 83 / 10 0 40 80 Picacho......................... 58 85 58 76 / 0 0 30 80 Elk............................. 56 83 56 74 / 0 0 30 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.