textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 939 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Low forecast confidence exists that patches of freezing fog will result in hazardous driving conditions across northern and western valley locations late tonight into early Monday morning. - A warming trend is underway, with temperatures rising above average areawide by mid week.

- A stronger cold front will impact the area on Friday, with notably colder temperatures and brisk winds across eastern NM.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

An upper high is poking east into central CA and extending a ridge axis southeast into the southern Rockies and NM, providing a very stable atmosphere with continued cold conditions near the surface thanks in part to snow on the ground across western and northern NM. Given some snow melt this afternoon and stubborn temperature inversions to trap that water vapor, we can't rule out the development of freezing fog overnight across the lower elevations of northern and western NM. That said, none of the latest model and associated MOS guidance forecast freezing fog, so our forecast confidence is low once again. Otherwise, a warming trend will continue into Monday, with temperatures rising 5-10 degrees above today's.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

The upper high is forecast to center over northern CA, increase in strength and expand across the region on Tuesday, continuing the warming trend with temperatures rising above average areawide. After warm conditions on Tuesday, the eastern plains will take a ride on the temperature rollercoaster for the remainder of the week thanks to two cold fronts, a weaker backdoor front on Wednesday and a stronger cold front areawide on Friday. Among the 12Z model suite, the GFS continues to be the outlier in showing a shortwave trough diving south across the region embedded in northerly flow aloft on Friday, providing forcing and interacting with upslope from the backdoor segment of the cold front to produce a round of snow along and immediately east of the central mountain chain. Our forecast is void of precipitation for Friday at this time, but this low probability outcome is worthy of note in case it trends. After a cool-down behind the front going into Saturday morning, warming with fair weather conditions are forecast for the remainder of the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Patches of freezing fog may develop again overnight across valley locations where snowmelt occurred, but confidence in fzfg development is very low. Another breezy northerly drainage wind is expected at KSAF toward sunrise, diminishing during the early afternoon hours on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1053 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A warming and drying trend is in play through mid week, with a stable atmosphere providing stubborn temperature inversions and poor ventilation. A weak backdoor cold front will impact eastern NM on Wednesday, but a stronger cold front will sweep through the entire area on Friday. Vent rates will improve Friday with stronger winds behind the cold front, but then tank and become mostly poor over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 14 38 18 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 13 51 16 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 13 45 16 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 7 46 9 48 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 13 50 16 51 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 9 50 11 54 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 12 48 14 49 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 22 47 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 17 46 20 52 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 15 55 17 60 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 17 58 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 15 48 19 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 22 47 29 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 19 52 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 7 45 17 50 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 7 41 14 43 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... -10 43 1 47 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 9 49 12 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 18 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 15 52 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 19 47 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 17 49 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 23 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 25 50 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 22 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 24 51 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 17 50 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 23 52 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 17 51 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 23 52 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 17 51 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 23 48 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 24 51 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 23 53 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 23 46 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 23 47 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 21 49 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 10 52 16 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 19 50 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 17 48 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 18 50 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 24 52 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 23 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 16 46 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 13 48 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 9 50 14 55 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 17 55 22 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 24 55 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 17 53 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 18 60 21 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 20 56 23 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 20 61 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 22 58 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 18 59 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 18 55 20 64 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 20 56 21 63 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 21 58 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 19 58 22 65 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.