textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026 - A few inches of snow will fall over the northern mountains above 9000 feet Monday morning.

- While precipitation chances diminish late Monday, rivers across northwestern and north-central New Mexico will remain near or above bankfull.

- Breezy to windy conditions will occur Monday across the Sacramento Mountains, Central Highlands and Eastern Plains.

- Drier conditions expected beginning Tuesday and persisting through the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

The storms across eastern New Mexico, which prompted the earlier issuance of a Tornado Watch have moved into the Texas Panhandle by the time of writing. Scattered showers associated with the progression of the well advertised Pacific low pressure system will continue overnight, primarily across northern, western, and north-central portions of the state. By sunrise, precipitation will become increasingly more focused on north-central and northeastern New Mexico as moisture and instability rotate around the departing low. As colder air filters in behind the front associated with the low pressure system, precipitation will transition to snow across the highest elevations, generally above 9000 to 10000 feet, where accumulations of 1-7 inches are possible.

The main concern, however, over the short term continues to be the ongoing flooding, particularly across northwestern and north- central New Mexico, where saturated soils and elevated streamflows from previous weeks of rain have exacerbated runoff from the rainfall received over the last 24 hours. Multiple River Flood Warnings remain in effect across the San Juan, Upper Rio Grande, and Gila Basins. The Flood Watch will continue through noon today, however flooding concerns may very well persist well beyond the expiration of the Watch. Winds will also remain elevated through the overnight hours, particularly along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for this area, with a Wind Advisory also in effect for portions of the Northeastern Highlands through sunrise. Additional Wind Advisories were issued for portions of the Eastern Plains, including portions of the I-40 corridor beginning mid-morning and continuing through the early evening. Another High Wind Warning was also issued for the Central Highlands and Guadalupe County through the evening, primarily for areas from Clines Corners south and east towards Vaughn.

A much quieter period is in store for us by Tuesday as the upper low will now be in the central Plains, leading to dry northwesterly flow across the Land of Enchantment. Expect sunny skies, lighter winds, and afternoon highs running a few degrees below average for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Moving into midweek, we are continuing to eye another upper-level trough that traverses across the Great Basin and the central Rockies by Wednesday. Models continue to depict the better forcing across the border in Colorado, however, isolated to scattered showers cannot be ruled out across northern and northeastern New Mexico. Confidence in meaningful precipitation is still on the low side, maybe a few hundredths or rain at most, with some light snow accumulations over the higher mountains looking possible. Increasing upper-level winds with this system may also make things breezy, but significant wind impacts are not expected.

Cooler air will filter into the region behind this disturbance on Thursday, keeping temperatures slightly below average. Models are still hinting at a trough crossing the state by late Friday/Friday night, but moisture looks to be lacking which would ultimately preclude any mentionable precipitation chances. Although, a few light sprinkles can't be ruled out across the east where moisture profiles are slightly more favorable.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail early this morning across eastern NM, but a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions plague central and western NM. Rain and high elevation snow will continue along and behind a cold front shifting southeastward across this area. Low clouds should erode across western and central NM by mid afternoon, except across the northern mtns. As the cold front shifts east of the Central Mtn Chain, precipitation will largely diminish thanks to downslope flow, but orographic lift may keep high elevation snow showers across the northern mountains through the afternoon. Mtn obscurations are also likely. Otherwise, expect winds to increase behind the front from the west. Strongest gusts are expected along and east of the central mtn chain where gusts between 40 and 50kt are likely. A backdoor cold front will plow southward across northeast NM late in the afternoon, with gusty winds up to 40 kt expected behind it as well. The backdoor front will continue to slide southward through the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

The heaviest, more widespread rain has come to an end early this morning. Light rain showers in addition to some mountain snow will develop over northwestern to north-central zones the remainder of the overnight hours and through the day today. Wind concerns will exist behind the low pressure system as winds become more northwesterly. The highest gusts will exist over the eastern half of the state, where sustained winds of 25-40 mph and gusts up to 50-60 mph will be common. Fortunately, humidity will be elevated and fuels moist enough thanks to recent rains to negate any critical fire weather concerns. Other than a few showers in northern zones on Wednesday, quieter conditions will prevail Tuesday through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 33 55 33 / 40 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 25 55 25 / 80 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 48 31 52 31 / 30 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 53 26 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 52 27 58 28 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 29 59 30 / 30 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 35 59 36 / 60 0 0 0 Datil........................... 50 31 59 33 / 40 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 62 29 68 31 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 66 33 70 35 / 30 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 25 50 26 / 90 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 34 52 34 / 40 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 50 30 55 30 / 80 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 30 52 32 / 80 10 0 0 Red River....................... 38 23 44 24 / 90 20 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 43 15 48 17 / 90 20 0 0 Taos............................ 49 24 54 24 / 70 20 0 0 Mora............................ 49 27 55 28 / 50 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 57 32 61 32 / 50 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 34 54 34 / 70 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 32 55 31 / 60 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 40 60 40 / 80 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 37 61 37 / 70 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 36 63 36 / 60 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 40 61 39 / 60 0 0 0 Belen........................... 62 35 62 35 / 70 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 37 62 36 / 60 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 33 62 34 / 70 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 37 62 37 / 60 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 35 62 36 / 70 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 53 37 58 38 / 70 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 58 39 61 38 / 60 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 39 63 38 / 60 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 33 53 34 / 80 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 51 35 55 36 / 80 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 52 31 57 30 / 80 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 29 59 26 / 70 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 52 32 54 34 / 70 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 54 32 58 33 / 90 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 32 58 32 / 80 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 60 39 60 40 / 50 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 54 35 58 36 / 40 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 31 51 30 / 70 40 0 0 Raton........................... 57 31 56 28 / 50 30 0 0 Springer........................ 58 30 58 27 / 20 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 30 55 31 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 63 41 57 37 / 40 30 0 0 Roy............................. 59 35 57 33 / 20 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 65 41 63 40 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 60 41 61 39 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 42 64 40 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 41 65 40 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 71 44 66 42 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 43 65 41 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 75 44 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 66 39 64 37 / 5 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 11 AM MST this morning for NMZ201>211.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ221-222-224-232-234>237-239.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for NMZ227-228.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ229-240.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ223-233.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ226.