textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Gusty west to southwest winds this evening before peaking on Monday and Tuesday, then coming back again toward the end of the work week. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high- profile vehicles.

- Critical fire weather conditions return Monday and Tuesday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico, but fuels may not be receptive to fire spread due to recent rainfall. Critical fire weather conditions are more likely toward the end of the week.

- Gusty virga showers and a dry storm or two will create localized gusty outflow winds in central and northern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Low potential for new fire starts in receptive fuels.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

It feels like Spring out there today with breezy southwest winds and temps generally in the 60s and 70s. It's a bit warmer than normal, but quite pleasant in most areas. High clouds are beginning to stream across the region from west to east and a few cumulus have begun to develop near the high terrain thanks to sufficient sfc heating.

Mid and high level moisture will continue streaming into the area tonight into early Monday out ahead of a Pacific trough. PWATs in the 0.3-0.4" range should be enough for at least isolated gusty virga showers in central and northern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Since cloud bases will be so high, rain will struggle to reach the ground through the dry boundary layer. Nonetheless, the evaporative cooling they create will create localized gusty outflow winds and blowing dust over dust sources. LIs in the -1 to -2C range across the northern mountains could produce a rogue lightning strike or two, but coverage should be quite limited. Southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be commonplace around the region, with the strongest gusts in northeastern NM. The Pacific trough will lift into northern AZ on Monday afternoon, increasing the coverage of showers across far northwestern NM. Top-down moistening will be required for precipitation to reach the ground and that could take a while for lower elevation locations in the Four Corners region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Showers will peak in coverage across northwestern NM around sunrise Tuesday as a Pacific front pushes in from Arizona. Temperatures will struggle to drop behind the Pacific front since daytime heating will more than cancel out its strength. In addition, the front will progressively lose strength as it becomes decoupled from the lifting trough. Nonetheless, the dry Pacific front will quickly trek across the state from west to east, ushering in a drier and slightly cooler airmass. Weak, quasi-zonal flow on Wednesday will give us a break from the gusty winds before they trend up again later in the week.

Southwest flow will intensify on Thursday in response to a deepening trough over The Great Basin. Winds will further increase on Friday as the trough deepens and moves across the Intermountain West. Model consensus still keeps the main bulk of precipitation off to the north in Colorado on Friday/Saturday, with very light precip. in the far northern mountains of New Mexico. Even the deeper solution proposed by around 25% of models keeps any light precipitation in northern New Mexico, with amounts generally less than 0.1". Regardless of precip. amounts, another Pacific front will sweep across the state on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures to the region. According to the NBM, there is currently a 70% chance of sub-freezing temperatures in Farmington on Saturday morning, with a 60% chance Sunday morning. The chance of freezing temperatures both days is around 50% in Santa Fe. It will be something to watch closely in the coming days if you have gardening/agriculture interests. Beyond next weekend, model uncertainty remains high, although the it does appear that the progressive pattern will continue.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Gusty southwest winds this evening will slowly taper off after sunset, but remain elevated across the higher terrain. Gradual lowering of VFR ceilings across western and central NM overnight into the day Monday. Gusty southwest winds redevelop areawide late Monday morning strengthening into the afternoon. Strongest winds across northeast NM and around KGUP with peak gusts around 35 to 40 kts. Low chance (<25%) for some gusty and erratic winds from virga showers across the Gila Mountains and parts of the highlands of northwest NM at the end of the TAF period. Not confident enough to include PROB30s at KFMN and KGUP at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across northeastern and west-central NM today in response to strengthening southwest winds. Winds trend slightly stronger tomorrow afternoon and the continued drying will likely cancel out the benefits of light precipitation that occurred on Friday/Saturday. As a result, a Red Flag Warning was issued for the Northeast Plains on Monday afternoon. While Red Flag conditions will also be present (at least briefly) in the East Central Plains and Northeast Highlands, precipitation was more intense and widespread in these areas which helped to wet fuels. Gusty virga showers will favor central and northern New Mexico on Monday afternoon and a strike or two of dry lightning could occur in the northern mountains.

Critical fire weather conditions are look increasingly likely on Tuesday in eastern NM as winds trend slightly stronger compared to Monday. Light precipitation associated with a Pacific frontal passage will favor northwestern NM Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, with the front drying out as it moves east of the Continental Divide. Wetting precipitation will generally be confined to areas above 9,000 feet in the Tusas mountains.

After a break on Wednesday, southwest winds trend up again late week. Critical fire weather conditions are likely in at least eastern NM both Thursday and Friday , with Thursday the more concerning day considering that afternoon humidities will likely drop into the single digits around much of the region. Very light precipitation will favor far northern New Mexico on Friday/Saturday will cooler temperatures, lighter winds, and dry conditions forecast for next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 44 67 41 57 / 5 20 50 50 Dulce........................... 32 63 33 52 / 5 30 70 80 Cuba............................ 40 62 34 54 / 5 20 50 60 Gallup.......................... 34 62 33 54 / 0 20 50 40 El Morro........................ 34 60 33 52 / 0 20 50 40 Grants.......................... 35 66 34 58 / 0 20 40 40 Quemado......................... 38 62 35 57 / 0 20 40 20 Magdalena....................... 46 67 41 63 / 0 10 20 10 Datil........................... 39 61 37 57 / 0 20 30 20 Reserve......................... 36 67 37 62 / 0 20 50 10 Glenwood........................ 40 72 41 67 / 5 30 50 10 Chama........................... 30 55 29 45 / 5 30 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 43 62 40 55 / 5 20 60 60 Pecos........................... 38 64 37 59 / 5 20 50 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 60 34 52 / 5 10 50 50 Red River....................... 31 50 29 44 / 5 10 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 28 57 29 51 / 5 10 50 40 Taos............................ 34 64 34 56 / 5 10 50 40 Mora............................ 37 63 35 58 / 5 10 40 30 Espanola........................ 43 69 41 63 / 5 10 50 40 Santa Fe........................ 41 64 39 58 / 5 20 60 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 67 40 61 / 5 10 50 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 71 44 66 / 5 20 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 73 46 67 / 5 10 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 75 46 70 / 0 10 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 73 46 67 / 0 10 30 30 Belen........................... 49 75 45 71 / 0 10 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 50 74 46 68 / 5 20 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 48 75 45 70 / 0 10 30 20 Corrales........................ 50 74 46 69 / 5 10 40 30 Los Lunas....................... 49 75 46 70 / 0 10 30 20 Placitas........................ 48 69 44 63 / 5 20 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 50 73 45 68 / 5 10 40 30 Socorro......................... 52 77 47 74 / 0 10 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 65 40 61 / 5 20 60 40 Tijeras......................... 44 67 41 63 / 5 20 50 30 Edgewood........................ 41 68 40 64 / 5 10 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 69 39 66 / 0 10 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 40 66 38 62 / 0 10 20 20 Mountainair..................... 43 68 41 66 / 0 10 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 45 68 42 65 / 0 10 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 50 71 48 68 / 0 10 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 45 64 44 62 / 0 10 20 10 Capulin......................... 38 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 36 69 36 65 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 39 71 38 68 / 0 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 40 67 39 63 / 0 5 20 20 Clayton......................... 46 75 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 71 43 68 / 0 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 49 80 49 77 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 49 75 47 72 / 0 5 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 50 82 51 79 / 0 0 5 5 Clovis.......................... 51 82 51 80 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 51 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 50 80 50 78 / 0 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 53 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 51 76 50 74 / 0 0 5 5 Elk............................. 47 74 48 72 / 0 5 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104.