textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mainly from southwestern to northeastern New Mexico today. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and central New Mexico where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs by Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

High pressure is elongating across the southern states with a couple of centroids projected to take shape by the afternoon, one over the southeast (GA/SC) area and another over western AZ and southern CA. This will alter wind directions aloft some, but very light speeds will persist. As for moisture and instability, a west northwest component in the northwestern NM zones will lead to drying that will keep storms suppressed there. This will paint the theta-E ridge from the southern high terrain of NM into the northeastern corner of the state where storms will initiate this afternoon. The backdoor front that was slated to enter northeastern NM, appears to stall in Colfax and Union counties this afternoon, and may not sag toward I-40 until later this evening (perhaps representing convective outflow more than anything). This could reduce the severe weather threat today, as better directional wind shear would stay confined along and north of the NM-CO border. Storms may also have a harder time sagging southward into east central to southeastern NM later this evening. As for rainfall, storms will be scattered, but the really heavy downpours will be more sparse and isolated from slow-moving cells. Temperatures will climb about 4 to 12 degrees above average across the forecast area today.

The upper high centroid over AZ will become more concentric with central heights reducing a bit to around 593-594 decameters on Thursday. This will push slightly stronger and drier northwesterlies aloft into northwestern and north central NM, causing dewpoints and PWATs to plummet (PWATs falling to 0.35 to 0.6 inch in much of these areas. This will shut down storm potential there Thursday afternoon, but moisture will hold over the southern and eastern tiers of NM. Storms will likely fire along the dry-to-moist gradient setting up just east of the Sangre de Cristos into the east central plains, but there are some questions on how stable this airmass would be. Should updrafts sustain themselves, the southeasterly boundary layer winds contrasted with northwesterlies aloft will re-introduce bulk shear for strong to severe storms in much of the northeastern quadrant of NM. Otherwise, the southwestern and south central mountains would retain the most instability for convective initiation Thursday. Temperatures would stay above normal, generally by 5 to 10 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

High pressure will get squashed southward a bit into Friday with the drier airmass of Thursday translating farther east across remaining NM zones. This will continue to suppress convection, but deeper subtropical moisture in AZ would start to re-enter far western NM by late in the day. Low chances for storms will be confined along the NM-AZ border while much lower dewpoints and hotter(and potentially record breaking) temperatures are observed farther east.

Friday's moisture in AZ would start to seep farther east northeastward into NM on Saturday as the upper high nudges that way in response to another deep low entering the Pacific Northwest states. This will reacquaint the western and central mountains of NM with isolated to scattered thunderstorms Saturday.

The Pacific Northwest low will lift into the northern Great Plains Sunday into Monday of next week, only to be replaced by another offshore one in its wake Tuesday. Through this time the upper high will slowly strengthen over the southeastern US, keeping a southwesterly wind component aloft over NM which will feed faint and heavily modified subtropical moisture into our state. PWATs from the LREF ensemble blend are generally advertised to range from 0.75 to 1.0 inch in the northwestern half of the state rising to 1.1 to 1.2 inches in the southeastern half. POPs will increase through this Sunday to Tuesday time frame, but will still generally be limited to scattered (30-50%) coverage. Temperatures will start to reduce closer to climatology through this time as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Showers and weakening thunderstorms continue to impact south central New Mexico early this morning, and these will fade away through the morning hours. By this afternoon, the atmosphere will destabilize again, primarily from southwestern to northeastern NM where scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. A storm or two near and between KRTN and KCAO could turn strong to severe, but most of the remaining activity will tend to produce typical aviation hazards such as gusty outflow winds, small hail, lightning, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. Storms will drift into east central New Mexico (KCQC-KSXU-KTCC) through the late afternoon and early evening, but will struggle to shift much farther south with lower probabilities at KCVN and KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Storms will be most common today from the southwestern to northeastern corners of NM with storms eventually sagging into the east central plains late this afternoon and early in the evening. Similar to past days, heavy downpours will be possible due to slow- moving storms, but soaking rainfall will be spotty and very hit-and- miss in true monsoon fashion. Forecast models seem to have backed off on any longer duration gap/canyon winds in central NM tonight, as the backdoor front is not projected to be as invasive as earlier model runs depicted.

Storm coverage will dwindle considerably into Thursday, staying confined to the southern high terrain and the eastern plains, as dry air will be invading remaining sections of the forecast area. This dry air will continue to spread farther east into Friday with very low dewpoints spilling into the majority of northern and central NM. This will send RH plummeting and temperatures climbing on Friday (RH falling to 10 to 20% in the afternoon in most zones). In addition, some stiff west northwest breezes will develop in the afternoons Thursday and more-so Friday with prevailing gusts of 20 to 25 mph being a bit more common than what has been observed lately.

Storms will start to return to the high terrain this weekend, expanding over more of northern and central New Mexico through early next week. Coverage will still generally be isolated to scattered, but spotty rainfall relief will pepper the landscape day-by-day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 92 56 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 90 48 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 89 53 91 53 / 5 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 84 52 86 52 / 40 20 5 0 Grants.......................... 88 55 89 55 / 20 5 10 0 Quemado......................... 84 56 85 56 / 50 30 10 0 Magdalena....................... 85 62 85 61 / 50 40 20 0 Datil........................... 81 57 83 56 / 60 40 20 0 Reserve......................... 90 57 90 56 / 60 40 30 0 Glenwood........................ 95 61 95 61 / 70 50 40 5 Chama........................... 84 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 85 61 85 60 / 20 10 5 0 Pecos........................... 87 55 87 54 / 50 10 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 52 83 50 / 10 10 10 0 Red River....................... 75 46 73 45 / 30 20 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 39 80 37 / 50 30 20 0 Taos............................ 88 53 87 50 / 10 10 10 0 Mora............................ 83 52 83 51 / 60 20 20 5 Espanola........................ 93 61 92 59 / 5 5 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 88 59 88 58 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 59 90 57 / 20 20 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 65 93 65 / 20 20 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 67 93 67 / 20 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 66 95 65 / 20 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 66 95 65 / 10 10 0 0 Belen........................... 95 64 95 64 / 20 20 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 96 65 95 64 / 10 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 95 62 94 62 / 20 20 5 0 Corrales........................ 97 65 96 64 / 10 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 95 62 94 61 / 20 20 5 0 Placitas........................ 92 64 91 63 / 20 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 95 66 95 65 / 10 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 69 96 69 / 30 30 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 60 88 60 / 30 30 5 0 Tijeras......................... 89 61 88 62 / 30 30 5 0 Edgewood........................ 89 59 89 59 / 30 30 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 54 91 53 / 40 30 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 87 57 87 58 / 60 30 20 0 Mountainair..................... 88 59 88 60 / 50 30 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 58 87 59 / 50 30 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 90 64 89 65 / 50 40 30 0 Ruidoso......................... 82 57 82 58 / 60 30 60 0 Capulin......................... 81 55 80 54 / 40 50 30 20 Raton........................... 86 53 85 51 / 50 40 30 20 Springer........................ 89 54 87 52 / 50 30 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 85 55 84 54 / 60 20 20 5 Clayton......................... 89 62 85 61 / 50 40 20 20 Roy............................. 88 59 85 59 / 50 40 20 20 Conchas......................... 96 65 93 65 / 40 60 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 93 65 91 65 / 40 50 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 96 66 93 67 / 30 50 20 20 Clovis.......................... 97 67 93 65 / 20 30 20 20 Portales........................ 98 67 94 66 / 20 30 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 97 67 94 67 / 20 50 20 20 Roswell......................... 99 69 97 69 / 20 30 20 10 Picacho......................... 93 64 91 63 / 30 30 30 10 Elk............................. 89 59 87 59 / 40 20 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.