textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 438 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A strong winter storm will impact much of central and northern New Mexico Friday through Sunday morning with snow, wintry mix, frigid temperatures, blowing snow, and treacherous travel conditions. Widespread minor impacts are expected with increasing chances for moderate to locally major impacts, especially along and east of the central mountain chain.

- Temperatures will plummet Friday in eastern New Mexico, with cold air spreading into central New Mexico Saturday through Monday morning. An extended period of bitterly cold temperatures will increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia, with the highest threat in the eastern plains.

- Dry weather returns early next week as temperatures struggle to climb back up to near seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 248 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Winter Storm Hazard Changes:

No changes were made to the Winter Storm Warning other than changing the segments around a bit to account for increase freezing rain chances in Lincoln County. The remaining segment of the Winter Storm Watch was converted to an Advisory, with the start time pushed back once again given the higher snow levels Friday/Saturday. The Chuskas, Northwest Highlands, and Southwest Mountains were also added to the Winter Weather Advisory.

New Mexico is currently sandwiched between a warm, moist Pacific airmass to the southwest and a cold, dry airmass to the northeast. Cold air advection is already underway in eastern NM as winds slowly back in response to the strong 1048mb sfc high that is sliding southward into the Dakotas early this morning. Meanwhile, moisture advection is occurring across southern and western portions of the area as cloud bases gradually lower and sfc dewpoints rise. Showers will begin late this morning, rapidly increasing in coverage this afternoon as the main swath of moisture is advected across the state. The most intense moisture advection will be in the 800-600mb layer, with isentropic lift the main driver of precipitation. Sfc convergence along and east of the central mountain chain will enhance precipitation rates here, but models have trended a tad drier, suggesting more gaps in precipitation Friday and Friday night. Strong warm air advection within the 700mb layer will increase snow levels through the afternoon in areas just west of the frontal boundary, with rapidly dropping snow levels in the east as the arctic airmass very slowly tries to progress south and east.

A wintry mix of precipitation is forecast in the southeast plains, with increasing confidence for minor ice accumulations upwards of 0.1". The Pecos River Valley looks like it will be spared from the freezing rain this evening, with temps hovering just a tad above freezing, but Curry and Roosevelt counties will be a few degrees colder and not as lucky. Furthermore, hi-res models are now showing patchy freezing rain in and around the Ruidoso area Friday night as the shallow, cold airmass banks up against the central mountain chain. If this airmass manages to squeak around the Sacramento and Capitan mountains, a brief period of freezing rain could be on tap for the Tularosa Valley as well. Another notable change in the forecast is the potential duration of freezing rain/sleet, with the HREF indicating that freezing rain could continue Friday night all the way through early Saturday afternoon. Some models such as the NAM are showing a very strong warm nose at 700mb, despite rapidly dropping sfc temperatures. For this reason, both the NBM and HREF are showing low probs (10-30%) for freezing rain through early Saturday afternoon, despite rapidly dropping sfc temperatures into the 20s and teens. Freezing rain at these temperatures would be exceedingly rare so skepticism is quite high that this will occur.

The backdoor front will attempt to push westward Friday night, but models have been consistently showing that this will be difficult with the southwest winds combating its progress. That being said, the snow level gradient will be quite stark along the leading edge of the boundary, creating high uncertainty with regard to snow levels along the Rio Grande Valley and the areas just east. The Pacific Low lifts across New Mexico on Saturday, with widespread showers across the entire region. Snow levels drop as 700mb temps finally plummet, with rain changing over to snow in all areas by Saturday night. This is the best window for snow accumulations in the Albuquerque metro. Forecast snow totals have trended down in this for the central and southern RGV, with 1-2" the most likely scenario. That being said, the GEFS and EPS have both trended colder on Saturday with the most recent forecast cycle, suggesting the potential for a quicker transition over to all snow.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 248 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Sunday morning will be dangerously cold, with forecast highs in the single digits or colder across all of northern and eastern New Mexico. Wind chills as low as the single digits are forecast for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe, with values as low as -10F in the eastern plains, including Clovis and Clayton. Snow will rapidly end from northwest to southeast Sunday morning as a Pacific front sweeps across the state. It will be a chilly day with high temperatures 10 to as much as 35 degrees below seasonal normals. Patchy blowing snow may occur in the northern mountains and the Central Highlands as snow density trends significantly lower early Sunday in response to dropping temps. Storm total snow amounts have not changed significantly with this forecast package, with the main change being a slight uptick in accumulations across the northern mountains and east-central plains.

Monday morning will likely be the coldest morning of the winter thus far with lows in the single digits or colder for almost all areas except for the lower Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will gradually moderate Monday afternoon into Tuesday as dry westerly flow returns. Highs may trend down during this period in the coming days due to snow cover, although mostly clear skies and a light downsloping breeze will promote quick melting across the east. Model uncertainty increases late week when there is a low chance (~20%) of a weak winter storm embedded within northwest flow grazing central and eastern NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 438 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Ceilings will rapidly drop in eastern NM this morning as a backdoor front pushes eastward. Rain and snow showers will increase in coverage this afternoon, expanding in coverage and increasing in intensity during the evening and overnight hours. Snow levels will be around 7,000 feet in western and central NM and much lower in eastern NM. Persistent MVFR to IFR conditions are likely at all terminals, with the highest confidence in persistent low cigs in eastern NM. A wintery mix of precipitation is expected south of I-40 in the eastern plains, with RA, SN, PL, FZRA all possible overnight. Shower coverage will trend lower between 06Z and 12Z, becoming more widespread again thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Poor ventilation prevails in most areas today and Saturday, except for pockets of fair to good ventilation in and around the northern mountains. Ventilation improves Sunday in the wake of a Pacific cold front, with the greatest improvements for central and western areas. A strong winter storm will impact the area this afternoon through Sunday morning, with widespread rain and snow showers. The heaviest snow amounts will focus along and east of the central mountain chain. There is a moderate to high chance of liquid-equivalent amounts in excess of 0.5" across much of the area. Much colder temperatures will accompany this winter storm, with dangerously cold temperatures each morning through Monday. Temperatures gradually moderate early to mid-next week as dry weather returns. Poor ventilation is expected to prevail throughout next week, although there is a low chance of minor improvements mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 49 32 39 15 / 20 80 80 20 Dulce........................... 45 26 36 3 / 60 100 100 50 Cuba............................ 45 26 35 6 / 60 90 100 70 Gallup.......................... 49 28 38 3 / 30 80 100 50 El Morro........................ 48 27 38 9 / 50 90 100 70 Grants.......................... 49 26 41 6 / 50 90 100 70 Quemado......................... 48 29 39 12 / 60 80 100 80 Magdalena....................... 50 31 43 20 / 60 80 100 90 Datil........................... 45 30 40 17 / 60 80 100 90 Reserve......................... 46 31 44 13 / 80 80 100 90 Glenwood........................ 50 35 48 19 / 90 90 100 90 Chama........................... 38 21 31 4 / 60 90 100 60 Los Alamos...................... 42 26 32 12 / 30 90 100 80 Pecos........................... 40 19 26 6 / 30 90 100 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 21 31 8 / 20 80 100 80 Red River....................... 34 16 25 3 / 20 80 100 90 Angel Fire...................... 40 8 29 -9 / 20 80 100 90 Taos............................ 45 22 32 4 / 20 80 100 80 Mora............................ 40 18 29 4 / 20 90 100 90 Espanola........................ 47 27 35 10 / 30 90 100 80 Santa Fe........................ 43 24 29 11 / 30 90 100 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 23 30 9 / 30 90 100 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 31 37 16 / 40 100 100 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 32 39 16 / 40 90 100 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 33 41 14 / 40 90 100 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 32 38 16 / 30 90 100 80 Belen........................... 53 34 43 11 / 40 90 100 90 Bernalillo...................... 51 30 38 14 / 30 90 100 80 Bosque Farms.................... 53 33 41 10 / 40 90 100 90 Corrales........................ 51 31 38 15 / 30 90 100 80 Los Lunas....................... 53 34 41 12 / 40 90 100 90 Placitas........................ 50 29 37 15 / 30 100 100 90 Rio Rancho...................... 50 31 38 16 / 30 90 100 80 Socorro......................... 52 35 46 17 / 60 80 100 90 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 26 33 11 / 40 100 100 90 Tijeras......................... 48 27 35 12 / 40 100 100 90 Edgewood........................ 46 23 31 6 / 40 100 100 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 21 29 0 / 40 100 100 90 Clines Corners.................. 39 17 19 2 / 40 90 100 90 Mountainair..................... 48 26 35 5 / 50 100 100 90 Gran Quivira.................... 48 26 36 5 / 60 100 100 90 Carrizozo....................... 49 33 39 13 / 80 100 100 100 Ruidoso......................... 43 27 32 12 / 90 100 100 100 Capulin......................... 24 4 14 0 / 10 60 60 70 Raton........................... 31 9 17 0 / 10 50 70 80 Springer........................ 33 9 19 0 / 10 50 50 60 Las Vegas....................... 36 13 19 1 / 20 80 90 80 Clayton......................... 21 1 10 2 / 30 80 70 80 Roy............................. 27 7 13 1 / 30 70 80 90 Conchas......................... 33 9 16 0 / 40 90 90 90 Santa Rosa...................... 37 13 18 1 / 50 90 100 90 Tucumcari....................... 31 7 13 -2 / 40 90 100 90 Clovis.......................... 34 9 13 2 / 50 90 100 100 Portales........................ 36 10 16 1 / 50 80 100 100 Fort Sumner..................... 38 13 19 0 / 60 80 100 100 Roswell......................... 43 24 25 7 / 80 90 100 90 Picacho......................... 41 21 25 6 / 70 90 100 90 Elk............................. 47 24 29 6 / 90 90 100 90

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM MST Sunday for NMZ210>218-221>224-229-232>234-237.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ227-228-230-231.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM MST Sunday for NMZ207-219-225-241.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ202-203-206-208.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM MST Sunday for NMZ226-235-236-238>240.