textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 547 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue bring soaking rains to the Land of Enchantment today. Stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail, gusty winds, and brief downpours. - There is a moderate (30-40%) risk for flash flooding within and downstream of the South Fork, Salt and Seven Cabins burn scars this afternoon through the evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

A welcome pattern shift to a cooler, wetter regime has graced NM with its presence. The primary culprit is a negatively tilted trough that was ushered through AZ and into NM via the subtropical jet. This set up a moist southerly flow in the low to mid levels, and last evening's PWAT was just shy of a daily record at 0.8 inch. Rain has morphed into a hybrid stratiform and showery mix with embedded storms, and activity has largely left western areas, focusing over central to eastern zones early this morning. Precipitation will continue to wane from west to east through dawn with just a few straggling showers and patches of drizzle lingering into the late morning. There will also be patches of low stratus lingering through the late morning, particularly in central highland areas, but perhaps also in portions of the Rio Grande valley and eastern plains.

The presence of low stratus would seem to stabilize the boundary layer and stunt insolation later today, but CAMs and higher resolution models are insistent that the atmosphere will quickly destabilize into the afternoon (even the HREF boasts 500 to 750 J/kg of surface-based CAPE by late day), setting the stage for another round of convection. Some modest drying will take place in western zones with dewpoints lowering a few degrees, but still hovering in the upper 30's to low 40's, enough to support a few weak to modest showers and storms. Dewpoints and PWATs will be considerably higher east of the central mountain chain where more efficient raining storms will be supported. The severe threat looks quite low with bulk shear values staying on the lower side 20-25 kt with the highest values in the far eastern tier of counties. Honing in on burn scar areas within Lincoln county, most convective initiation is pinpointed just east of the scars, so no Flood Watch is planned at this time. Storms will roll eastward and most will dissipate through the evening.

On Wednesday, a deep cut-off low will have moved into CA/NV, steering stronger southwesterlies into AZ. This will induce some breezy south southwesterly winds over western NM zones with considerable drying occurring. While much of the eastern plains will retain higher dewpoints, enough for an isolated airmass storm or two, the focus for convection will be in the far northeast corner of NM where the surface flow will be backed more easterly, leading to upslope and perhaps some convergence near/east of the Sangre de Cristos and the Raton ridge. Otherwise, temperatures will warm up a few to several degrees, reaching closer to normal Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Into Thursday, the cut-off low retrogrades slightly westward with stronger southerly flow (20-25 kt at 700 mb) creeping into western NM. With surface high pressure over the plains, this will induce breezy to windy south winds Wednesday with the Rio Grande and far western zones likely seeing the strongest surface gusts of 25 to 35 mph. The dryline would still be poised to stay over the eastern plains, potentially triggering storms near the interface with the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon.

Into Friday the cut-off low lifts northeastward as a weakening wave. This will cause the flow aloft to turn more southwesterly with slightly lower speeds as the gradient relaxes some. Some weak vort lobes could be embedded in these southwesterlies, potentially assisting afternoon convection if the timing synchronizes.

Light flow aloft looks to prevail into the weekend and early next week, generally retaining a southwesterly component initially before becoming more variable. This will keep prevailing wind speeds on the lower side, pointing the predominant forecast challenges to POPs and convection along/east of the dryline in eastern NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue along and east of the continental divide for the remainder of today. Areas of MVFR and localized IFR conditions will also continue due to low clouds and/or decreased visibility during periods of rainfall and patchy fog, with the most widespread flight category restrictions until mid morning. This afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over western NM along and north of I-40. There is about a 20 percent chance of gusty showers and storms impacting KGUP during mid to late afternoon, which is too small to mention in the TAF. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage this evening, while gradually diminishing from west to east across the state. Many of today's thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail and wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. There is an approximately 20 percent chance of an isolated severe storm or two forming east of the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, there will probably be some patchy fog in the Moreno Valley around Angel Fire, and also east of the central mountain chain in locations where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Wetting rainfall has covered a large majority of the ABQ forecast area yesterday and early this morning, and this will put critical fire weather concerns on the back burner for at least a couple of days. However, the northwest plateau and some northern mountain locations have not yet received their share. Prevailing winds begin increasing from the south over western zones on Wednesday. These strong south winds expand more to the Rio Grande valley on Thursday. On both Wednesday and Thursday, dewpoints and RH will plummet over the western half of NM. Recent rainfall would mitigate fuel concerns in the Rio Grande valley, but the northwestern plateau could see a juxtaposition of marginally critical winds and very low RH, mainly Thursday afternoon for a couple of hours. Prevailing winds would relax slightly into Friday and more-so into the weekend. By this point the weather pattern will fall under a typical late May and early June regime with warm and dry conditions in the western half of the state while the eastern zones (east of the dryline) observe considerably higher dewpoints/RH along with daily rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 76 48 84 49 / 20 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 36 79 39 / 60 20 5 0 Cuba............................ 69 41 76 45 / 30 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 37 80 39 / 20 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 41 77 44 / 10 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 73 39 80 41 / 20 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 41 77 44 / 10 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 71 48 77 51 / 40 20 0 0 Datil........................... 70 43 76 46 / 20 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 38 80 41 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 82 43 84 46 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 64 36 72 39 / 50 20 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 67 49 75 52 / 50 20 5 0 Pecos........................... 67 42 75 44 / 50 30 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 44 72 46 / 60 30 10 0 Red River....................... 59 36 65 34 / 70 30 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 61 33 68 26 / 60 30 30 0 Taos............................ 68 41 75 42 / 50 20 10 0 Mora............................ 62 41 71 44 / 60 40 40 10 Espanola........................ 74 47 81 47 / 40 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 69 48 76 50 / 40 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 46 80 47 / 40 20 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 54 82 56 / 30 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 56 83 55 / 30 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 48 85 49 / 30 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 52 84 54 / 20 20 0 0 Belen........................... 79 47 85 49 / 30 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 77 52 84 53 / 30 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 79 45 85 47 / 30 20 0 0 Corrales........................ 78 51 85 53 / 30 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 79 47 85 49 / 30 20 0 0 Placitas........................ 74 52 81 54 / 30 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 77 51 83 54 / 20 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 80 53 86 55 / 30 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 48 77 51 / 40 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 71 48 79 51 / 40 20 5 0 Edgewood........................ 70 44 79 47 / 40 20 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 40 80 43 / 40 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 67 44 75 46 / 60 30 5 0 Mountainair..................... 71 43 78 46 / 50 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 70 45 77 47 / 50 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 73 51 80 53 / 50 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 66 44 74 45 / 70 20 10 0 Capulin......................... 65 41 67 42 / 50 40 60 20 Raton........................... 68 44 73 44 / 60 40 50 10 Springer........................ 68 44 75 45 / 70 40 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 64 44 73 46 / 70 40 20 5 Clayton......................... 72 49 73 49 / 50 50 60 30 Roy............................. 66 46 73 47 / 60 50 30 10 Conchas......................... 72 49 81 51 / 70 40 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 47 79 49 / 60 30 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 74 50 82 52 / 70 40 20 0 Clovis.......................... 70 51 81 53 / 80 40 20 0 Portales........................ 73 50 83 53 / 80 40 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 73 49 82 51 / 80 30 10 0 Roswell......................... 75 53 84 55 / 60 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 71 48 81 51 / 60 20 10 0 Elk............................. 70 45 80 48 / 70 30 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.