textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up late in the weekend through the middle of next week.

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over more of northern and central New Mexico early next week. Strong and erratic downburst wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with the stronger cells.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A 40-50 kt jet streak at 300 mb is modeled to lift over northern NM into CO today into tonight as a weak Great Basin trough ejects into the northern Rockies. This will keep enough momentum aloft available to mix down to the surface within northern NM with breezy to windy conditions at the surface. A lee-side surface trough will also develop in eastern CO, assisting with the wind production, and consequently Colfax, Union, and Harding counties will bear the brunt of the gusts this afternoon with speeds occasionally reaching 35 mph through sunset. Low layer moisture will continue to mix eastward through the afternoon, but should hold over the far east central high plains, essentially keeping dewpoints in the 40's and 50's along and east of eastern Lincoln, De Baca, and Quay counties. This will limit storm potential to these areas with very sparse and widely isolated coverage. Forecast soundings show some high LCL's and high DCAPE, so an isolated severe downburst or two cannot be ruled out, but the POPs are very low (10-20%). Otherwise, high temperatures will be seasonably warm to hot.

Another weak shortwave trough will briefly graze past central CA tonight before ejecting northeastward, and the gradient aloft will relax slightly over northern NM. The 700 mb wind speeds will reduce to 15-20 kt by Friday afternoon, and the lee-side surface trough will not be quite as strong. This will make for breezy conditions, but gusts are not projected to be as high as today, only 25 to 30 mph in far northeastern zones Friday afternoon. Low layer moisture would also have a more difficult time hanging on, and only low isolated POPs have been mentioned, mainly over the high terrain of Lincoln county. Temperatures would gain a degree or two due to drying and slightly higher pressure heights.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

High pressure aloft then starts to build over NM this weekend into early next week, signifying less westerlies and a shift toward the monsoon. The retreating westerlies will be a welcome sight, lowering and reducing our long duration bouts of windy conditions while also allowing better subtropical moisture to seep into the state. The moisture will be rather subdued at first with slow and incremental increases, but by Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week PWAT readings across the forecast area are projected to reach normal (around 0.8 inch in ABQ). Climatologically, the first week in July often sees notable rises, so this is good to see some semblance of normalcy. Northwestern NM typically moistens up last, so this will remain the drier corner of the state with lower dewpoints and PWATs. Consequently POPs are also starting to look more climatological for early July, favoring the central mountain chain and southwestern ranges. Many of the initial storms will be on the drier side with less efficient rainfall production, but rain footprints will hopefully start expanding more as we get further into July and deeper moisture is able to be tapped and recycled. Temperatures would start to creep a few degrees (3-6) above normal Saturday before the moisture arrives, but readings should level out closer to normal Sunday through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Smoke from area wildfires may produce reductions in slantwise visibility thru tonight, especially from near KABQ to KONM and KTCS. Very dry and hot conditions will return Friday with lighter winds compared to the past few days. Cirrus will increase over the region Friday with mostly cloudy periods by late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Red Flag conditions will persist over northeastern New Mexico through the early evening, as a modest, but relatively strong for early July, jet streak overlays a lee-side surface trough. Gusts to 35 mph from the southwest will be common through sunset before subsiding. Any new lightning ignitions from yesterday or previous days will be susceptible to growth.

Into Friday, the jet streak aloft will relax, as will the lee-side surface trough, allowing winds to reduce in speed with critical fire weather fortunately abating. Still, breezy and dry conditions will be prevalent with some gusts of 25 being most common in the northeastern quadrant of NM again with a few isolated gusts to 30 mph not out of the question.

The monsoon high then shows signs of building into NM this weekend into early next week, bringing a welcome respite from strong westerlies while also allowing moisture to creep back in. The moisture increases will be slow and incremental, but storms will start developing and multiplying over the high terrain through next week. Wetting rainfall footprints will likely be minimal and spotty at first with a threat of new lightning strikes carrying on into the week or two before moisture gets more deeply rooted and rains turn more soaking.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 51 93 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 89 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 51 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 89 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 46 91 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 51 89 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 58 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 47 92 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 52 96 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 39 79 41 80 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 31 82 29 82 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 49 89 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 87 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 52 95 53 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 96 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 97 57 98 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 97 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 98 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 97 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 96 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 58 97 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 97 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 92 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 61 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 57 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 56 91 57 92 / 0 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 92 51 93 / 0 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 88 56 89 / 0 5 0 5 Mountainair..................... 57 91 57 93 / 0 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 57 90 59 91 / 0 5 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 63 93 66 93 / 5 10 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 55 86 59 86 / 10 20 0 50 Capulin......................... 53 90 53 87 / 5 5 0 5 Raton........................... 51 94 51 93 / 0 5 0 5 Springer........................ 52 96 52 94 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 90 56 91 / 0 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 63 98 65 96 / 5 5 0 5 Roy............................. 60 93 61 93 / 5 5 0 5 Conchas......................... 66 100 66 100 / 10 5 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 97 66 97 / 10 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 68 100 69 101 / 10 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 65 95 66 97 / 20 5 0 10 Portales........................ 66 97 67 99 / 20 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 66 98 68 99 / 10 5 0 10 Roswell......................... 68 99 70 101 / 20 5 0 10 Picacho......................... 62 94 65 95 / 20 10 0 30 Elk............................. 59 89 62 90 / 20 20 5 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.