textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend. Isolated flash flooding will be a concern each afternoon, including over the Ruidoso area burn scars, with Saturday being of particular concern.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across portions of northern New Mexico through late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 148 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Rich, monsoonal moisture remains draped across New Mexico tonight in between a ridge off to the east and troughing over The Great Basin. Broken to overcast skies prevail in most areas which will make for a warm night with lows generally a few to several degrees above average. Overall, today will be very similar to Thursday with scattered storms favoring the western and northern high terrain, moving from southwest to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. There will be slightly more sfc warming and mid-level destabilization today compared to Thursday, which will support a more robust crop of afternoon convection, with higher potential rainfall rates. HREF 90th percentile amounts show isolated pockets of 1-2" in southwest and south-central areas, where there is a low risk of isolated flash flooding.

Smoke dispersion models indicate that smoke should remain out of the Santa Fe area the next couple of days, with smoke generally funneling northward up the Rio Grande Valley. This may result in briefly poor air quality in the Taos area this evening.

PWATs will trend slightly lower on Saturday, but the advection of mid-level dry air will help to further destabilize the atmosphere and increase CAPE values to nearly 1000 J/kg along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Models have been consistently showing development over the Sacramento Mountains, with the HREF LPMM already suggesting localized rainfall amounts up to 3" through the early evening. There will be surface convergence, south to north steering flow parallel to the terrain, and abundant moisture so all the ingredients are there for flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars. The other area to watch for flash flooding Saturday afternoon will be the northeast portion of the state from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward. A disturbance moving over the southern Rockies should initiate the development of a cluster of storms in the lee of the Colorado Rockies and this cluster could scrape the far northern New Mexico, including Raton where WPC has outlined a Slight Risk area. Storm coverage will be much more isolated across central and western areas which will be just west of the main moisture plume. Given the lack of rain and clouds, high temps will rise back up to seasonal averages along and west of the Rio Grande Valley Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 148 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Ridging over Texas will begin to shift westward into New Mexico on Sunday, which will start to disrupt the subtropical moisture plume. The weakening of flow aloft will actually help moisture increase in the western half of the state, with PWATs rising back above the 75th percentile. Sunday could have the most widespread storm coverage of any of the next 7 days as a result. Storm motions will trend slower, with locally heavy rainfall favoring the high terrain of northern New Mexico. A gradual drying trend is forecast into Monday and Tuesday as heights rise and an elongated ridge blocks off sub- tropical moisture from pushing northward into the desert southwest. This pattern will likely continue into mid-week, but confidence remains low with what happens beyond that.

Some models are showing anomalous troughing over the Intermountain West transitioning into a reverse monsoon pattern with the monsoon high setting up over the Great Basin and leaving eastern NM vulnerable to the passage of a backdoor front or two. Others keep ridging over the spine of the Rockies, with moisture steadily returning from the south. The current forecast shows scattered showers and storms over the western and northern high terrain, but this is subject to change drier or wetter depending on how models trend in the coming days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A batch of broken VFR cigs with embedded showers draped across western and central NM is gradually moving off to the north this morning. Brief MVFR visibility may occur with these scattered showers, but vis restrictions are unlikely to last more than 30 min. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon, but broken cigs will persist across much of western NM. Scattered showers and storms will favor the southwest and northern high terrain today, moving towards the northeast at 10 to 15 knots. There is a low chance of storms at KFMN, KABQ, and KAEG this afternoon, but no mention was made in the TAFs since probs are too low.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Briefly poor air quality may impact areas just north and northeast of the Frijoles fire today, but is unlikely to impact the Santa Fe area given prevailing winds from the southwest/west today.

A tap of sub-tropical moisture continues funneling into New Mexico today, keeping temperatures seasonably low and moisture relatively high. Scattered showers and storms will develop over the high terrain and trek towards the northeast, similar to Thursday. Storm coverage focuses along the central mountain chain on Saturday where there will be high chances of wetting rainfall due to the potential for repeated rounds of showers and storms. Western areas will be drier Saturday, but this changes on Sunday as ridging starts to develop overhead, trapping moisture underneath. Good to excellent humidity recoveries tonight and Friday night become fair to good Saturday night, then trend better again early next week.

An elongated ridge will remain in place over the desert southwest early next week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms generally favoring northern New Mexico and drier conditions elsewhere. Model uncertainty remains high for the mid-week to late week period with some models favoring wetter and cooler weather and other favoring hotter and drier. Blended guidance suggests near normal moisture, but there is still a range of potential forecast outcomes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 84 61 89 60 / 10 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 48 88 47 / 20 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 78 55 86 56 / 20 30 0 0 Gallup.......................... 79 52 84 54 / 40 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 75 52 81 54 / 50 20 10 0 Grants.......................... 78 54 85 55 / 70 40 10 0 Quemado......................... 76 55 82 57 / 70 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 80 61 85 63 / 60 40 30 10 Datil........................... 75 55 80 57 / 60 30 10 5 Reserve......................... 79 52 89 55 / 60 20 5 0 Glenwood........................ 84 57 94 61 / 30 10 5 0 Chama........................... 73 48 81 49 / 20 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 80 60 85 61 / 40 40 30 5 Pecos........................... 81 57 86 57 / 20 40 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 55 84 55 / 30 30 20 5 Red River....................... 68 46 73 45 / 50 30 40 5 Angel Fire...................... 73 38 79 38 / 50 30 50 10 Taos............................ 82 53 86 53 / 20 20 10 0 Mora............................ 78 52 83 52 / 60 40 50 30 Espanola........................ 86 59 91 59 / 30 40 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 81 61 86 62 / 20 30 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 58 90 59 / 20 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 66 94 68 / 20 30 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 65 93 66 / 20 30 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 63 95 65 / 20 30 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 66 93 68 / 20 30 0 0 Belen........................... 91 62 95 63 / 20 30 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 88 65 95 66 / 20 30 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 90 61 94 62 / 20 30 0 5 Corrales........................ 88 66 95 67 / 20 30 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 90 63 94 64 / 20 30 0 5 Placitas........................ 86 64 91 65 / 20 30 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 88 66 94 66 / 20 30 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 66 96 68 / 20 30 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 58 87 60 / 20 40 10 5 Tijeras......................... 83 60 88 62 / 20 30 10 5 Edgewood........................ 84 55 89 56 / 20 40 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 54 91 54 / 20 30 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 83 58 86 58 / 20 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 82 56 89 57 / 20 20 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 83 57 87 58 / 10 20 30 10 Carrizozo....................... 86 64 90 64 / 10 10 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 78 58 83 58 / 40 10 80 10 Capulin......................... 82 56 84 54 / 50 20 80 50 Raton........................... 85 55 88 54 / 50 20 70 30 Springer........................ 89 56 90 55 / 40 20 60 30 Las Vegas....................... 84 56 87 55 / 30 30 40 20 Clayton......................... 92 64 93 61 / 20 30 40 70 Roy............................. 88 60 89 59 / 20 30 30 40 Conchas......................... 98 66 97 64 / 10 20 20 50 Santa Rosa...................... 94 64 93 63 / 20 30 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 99 68 98 65 / 5 20 20 50 Clovis.......................... 97 68 97 67 / 5 20 20 20 Portales........................ 98 69 98 67 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 97 68 97 67 / 5 20 10 20 Roswell......................... 100 70 99 70 / 10 10 20 10 Picacho......................... 89 64 93 63 / 50 20 70 10 Elk............................. 86 60 90 58 / 30 10 70 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.