textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture continues to bring widespread heavy rains today threatening flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances will increase again and bring more soaking rain Sunday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Squeezed between a lagging 583dm H5 low off the Baja Coast and a ~593dm H5 high over the TX/LA Gulf Coast, abundant monsoonal moisture continues to stream northward through NM. A near climatological max 1.12" PWAT was observed in the 00Z ABQ UA sounding, alongside widespread surface Td's in the 50s over western and central NM and 60s thru eastern NM. Satellite and surface obs are already showing lowering ceilings and patchy fog developing this hour, expected to spread over more of the area tonight.

WV satellite imagery and radar show two distinct vorticity signatures moving northward from Old Mexico into southern NM and southeastern AZ this morning. The eastern most feature will continue to trek northward bringing showers with a few embedded thunderstorms (currently over El Paso) to areas from Catron, Socorro, and Lincoln Counties during the early predawn hours this morning. The western vorticity feature will be more of a player for NM by Friday, rotating into the Four Corners region. This feature looks to fuse with the larger 583dm H5 low off the Baja Coast, helping generate more shower and thunderstorm activity over the Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A secondary batch heading toward Roswell tonight looks to hold together longer into east-central NM by late Thursday morning. Areas through central and north-central NM will see a notable break in precipitation (aside from some light drizzle) before afternoon convection breaks out. Northwestern NM looks to see a more prolonged downtick on rain chances Thursday before Friday's next round of precipitation chances. Scattered to numerous showers elsewhere outside the Four Corners region will favor development along the central mountain chain or Caprock areas before individual cells track more west to east over the state.

Given these breaks and continued activity favoring east-central and southeastern NM, the Flood Watch will be dropped for areas along east of the Central Highlands forecast zone and north of I-40. The current Flood Watch for areas in counties entirely south of I-40 as well as Quay County will be maintained through today and tonight.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Saturday begins the weekend and long term period with a significant down tick in rain chances with drying conditions. Sunday sees an approaching upper trough axis dig southward across the western CONUS. This feature, alongside Hurricane Polo will act to advect more monsoonal moisture northward into the AZ/NM, allowing for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development to favor eastern AZ into western NM Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, the trough axis is favored to track across NM either Monday or Tuesday with significant divergence being resolved b/w various numerical model suites. The depth of the trough digging over the Desert Southwest will play a major role for just how much precipitation breaks out and and how fast storms move west to east across the state. Any resulting flash flooding risk will be the result of a balancing act between the coverage of showers/storms and how fast they move. Drier conditions move into the area in the wake of this feature either mid or late next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to stream northward over southeastern and east-central NM this morning. Lowering ceilings alongside fog/mist and light rain is bringing IFR/MVFR conditions through much of central NM, including at KABQ and KSAF. Ceilings are generally in between the 005 and 020 range, prompting changes in categories from time to time through this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again across western and central NM, filling into a lesser degree of central and northern NM this afternoon relative to yesterday. More persistent rain will exist over southeastern NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

There are no fire weather concerns through the next week. Abundant moisture with repeated rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity continues most areas today and Friday. Saturday will be significantly drier with the next round of showers and storms moving across the state Sunday and Monday, potentially longer into the middle parts of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 73 53 73 50 / 20 30 50 10 Dulce........................... 68 44 69 40 / 60 40 70 30 Cuba............................ 66 47 67 47 / 40 30 50 20 Gallup.......................... 71 47 72 43 / 20 40 40 10 El Morro........................ 68 46 69 42 / 20 60 50 10 Grants.......................... 70 49 71 44 / 30 50 50 10 Quemado......................... 71 49 71 48 / 30 50 50 20 Magdalena....................... 68 52 70 51 / 30 60 50 30 Datil........................... 67 49 69 47 / 40 70 40 20 Reserve......................... 75 50 75 50 / 40 70 20 10 Glenwood........................ 80 54 80 55 / 30 70 20 10 Chama........................... 62 43 62 40 / 70 50 70 30 Los Alamos...................... 66 51 67 49 / 50 40 60 30 Pecos........................... 67 49 68 47 / 50 50 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 46 66 44 / 60 50 60 30 Red River....................... 56 40 58 38 / 80 50 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 61 37 63 34 / 90 60 60 20 Taos............................ 67 46 68 43 / 60 40 60 30 Mora............................ 66 46 68 44 / 70 50 50 20 Espanola........................ 72 51 73 49 / 40 40 60 30 Santa Fe........................ 67 51 68 50 / 50 50 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 51 70 49 / 40 40 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 55 73 54 / 30 50 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 56 74 55 / 20 50 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 56 75 56 / 10 50 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 72 56 74 55 / 20 50 30 20 Belen........................... 74 55 75 54 / 10 50 40 30 Bernalillo...................... 73 55 74 55 / 20 50 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 74 54 75 54 / 10 50 40 30 Corrales........................ 73 55 74 55 / 20 50 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 74 55 75 54 / 10 50 40 30 Placitas........................ 70 55 72 53 / 30 50 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 72 56 73 55 / 20 50 30 20 Socorro......................... 76 57 77 57 / 20 60 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 50 68 50 / 40 50 50 20 Tijeras......................... 68 53 69 52 / 40 50 40 20 Edgewood........................ 69 51 70 49 / 40 50 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 49 72 47 / 40 50 50 20 Clines Corners.................. 67 51 69 50 / 50 50 50 20 Mountainair..................... 69 51 70 51 / 40 50 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 68 52 69 52 / 40 60 50 40 Carrizozo....................... 71 55 72 56 / 50 70 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 67 52 69 52 / 70 70 60 20 Capulin......................... 65 49 68 47 / 60 60 50 20 Raton........................... 69 50 72 46 / 70 60 50 20 Springer........................ 72 51 74 47 / 50 60 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 67 49 69 46 / 50 60 50 20 Clayton......................... 74 57 74 55 / 50 40 40 30 Roy............................. 70 54 71 50 / 50 50 60 30 Conchas......................... 77 59 79 58 / 50 60 60 40 Santa Rosa...................... 73 58 76 57 / 50 70 60 30 Tucumcari....................... 77 60 77 59 / 60 70 60 30 Clovis.......................... 75 61 76 60 / 70 70 70 40 Portales........................ 77 62 77 60 / 70 70 70 40 Fort Sumner..................... 75 61 77 60 / 60 70 70 40 Roswell......................... 77 61 79 61 / 60 70 60 20 Picacho......................... 73 57 76 56 / 70 70 70 20 Elk............................. 72 55 75 53 / 70 80 60 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226-234>240.