textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 240 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Light rain showers and an additional dusting of snow is possible late today into Friday for the northern mountains and surrounding high terrain.

- Breezy conditions on Friday will turn windy Friday night across the central mountain chain eastward into the plains with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible.

- Stronger west winds are also possible Monday along and east of the central mountains.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 240 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

An upper level low pressure system is exiting eastward out of New Mexico and into Texas. A few low clouds and some areas of fog may linger in portions of northern and eastern New Mexico through the mid morning, but clearing conditions will take hold before noon. However, additional weaker weather disturbances will bring a few more light rain and snow showers again late today and into tonight and Friday, mainly over northern New Mexico. Any rain and snow amounts will be very light with many places only receiving a few sprinkles or flurries. After lighter winds today, breezy to locally windy conditions will develop Friday, Friday night, and again each day of the weekend, primarily over the central highlands into the east central plains. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail this weekend. After cooler and more seasonable temperatures today, readings will climb above normal through the weekend into early next week. Stronger winds are also looking to impact New Mexico on Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 240 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

Some patchy and dense fog returned to the Clovis area overnight. The wind is forecast to shift out of the north northwest there with a backdoor cold front around 12Z, which should cause the fog to diminish from northwest to southeast by mid morning. In addition, nighttime microphysics RGB imagery depicts another area of low clouds and probably patchy freezing fog in the Navajo Lake region, which will should burn off by around mid morning.

A series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft will clip northeast NM today through Friday with a chance for rain and snow showers over western and north central areas this afternoon, spreading to include central areas as well tonight, then lingering over the northern mountains on Friday. Only up to an inch of snow accumulation is expected, mainly in the northern mountains above 8500 feet. A Pacific cold front that crosses today will hold high temperatures from a little below to as much as 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages this afternoon. Readings will trend upward most places Friday with readings near to as much as 13 degrees above the averages.

Brisk northwest flow aloft will cause surface winds to become gusty along the central mountain chain late this afternoon. Wind speeds will then strengthen along the central mountain chain and across east central areas tonight with gusts peaking around 35-45 mph over the southern Sangres, around Clines Corners, and in the south central mountains. Breezy conditions will spread to the remainder of the mountains of our forecast area on Friday with gusty winds spreading to adjacent lowlands as well in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

A southern Rockies shortwave will continue working over northern NM into Friday night with most of the associated snow staying north of the NM-CO border. While precipitation will be scant and minimal for northern NM, the gradient aloft will undergo a significant strengthening while a deepening lee-side surface low moves over the TX panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. This will create windy and brisk conditions going Friday night before relaxing some into the daytime Saturday when the upper and surface low shift farther east and the gradient relaxes some. Still, breezy to locally windy conditions would prevail during the daytime Saturday across the central highlands, and despite the trough passage the previous night, temperatures on Saturday afternoon would rise a few degrees above normal.

Stiff, but less perturbed, northwest flow will back a bit more west northwest into Sunday with pressure heights rising a couple decameters. This along with a lee-side surface trough and downsloping breezes will keep temperatures rising a few degrees more into Sunday with readings exceeding normal by 10 to 20 degrees.

The flow will then strengthen and usher in another embedded shortwave trough on Monday, dragging it across the central Rockies and into the central plains. This shortwave may not bring the strongest winds aloft over NM during peak vertical mixing, so winds may not reach their full potential Monday, but there will still be a notable surge up in speeds in many zones, but especially along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures on Monday would begin cooling a few degrees in response to the lowering heights during the passage of the shortwave, but readings would still remain well above average. A cold front will then back into NM from the east Monday night, bringing temperatures back to more seasonable and appropriate late December values.

Deterministic forecast models remain mostly dry into Tuesday and Wednesday, but the GFS is hinting at another progressive shortwave that could skim northeastern NM with light precipitation and another frontal intrusion. The bulk of the ENS ensemble members advertise higher height fields (ridging) over the western ConUS with a longwave trough axis staying well to the east. In contrast, most ensemble members that drag any sharper trough closer to NM are generally a part of the GEFS family.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MST Wed Dec 25 2024

The upper level low is centered just northeast of KSXU as of this writing and will continue to shift southeastward over Texas overnight. A few flurries and/or sprinkles persist across northeast NM, but these will continue to diminish in coverage overnight. However, low cigs (MVFR to low VFR) and patchy fog will persist, with fog most probable at KAXX. Additionally, there is potential for another round of low clouds (IFR) and fog overnight and into Thursday morning around KCVS, KCVN and KPRZ. If this develops, it should diminish between 15 and 18Z Thursday. Thereafter, another round of high clouds will move in from west to east, with these clouds lowering in the afternoon as a weak trough passes overhead. A few light showers will be possible across the northwest and north central areas during the afternoon and evening. Breezy westerly winds are also expected Thursday afternoon from KCQC to KTCC. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist Thursday night across east central NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

A series of disturbances will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft today through Friday keeping winds gusty, and producing periods of light rain and snow mainly over western and north central parts of the fire weather forecast area. Any snow accumulation will be light and favor the northern mountains. High temperatures today and Friday should vary from a little below to around 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. This weekend, gusty northwest flow aloft will persist, but the weather will be dry and temperatures will trend well above 30-year averages areawide. During the first half of the coming week temperatures are forecast to trend downward each day as a a couple of disturbances and associated cold fronts cross from the northwest. The second disturbance could produce some rain and snow mainly over northern areas Tuesday night and Wednesday, but model differences decrease confidence in that possibility at this time. Northwest winds may gust in the 35 to 45 mph range on Monday, especially along and east of the central mountain chain resulting in near critical fire weather conditions below snowpack.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 42 25 47 23 / 30 20 10 10 Dulce........................... 43 16 44 12 / 30 30 20 20 Cuba............................ 44 22 47 22 / 20 30 5 20 Gallup.......................... 45 15 51 16 / 30 30 5 10 El Morro........................ 44 23 49 20 / 20 30 5 10 Grants.......................... 48 19 52 20 / 10 20 0 5 Quemado......................... 48 22 53 22 / 20 20 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 30 56 32 / 0 10 0 0 Datil........................... 50 27 54 27 / 0 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 55 17 60 19 / 5 20 0 0 Glenwood........................ 56 30 60 30 / 5 20 0 0 Chama........................... 41 16 40 14 / 30 30 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 43 27 45 29 / 5 30 5 20 Pecos........................... 48 27 47 27 / 0 10 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 19 42 21 / 10 20 5 10 Red River....................... 38 17 34 17 / 20 20 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 42 13 39 18 / 10 20 10 10 Taos............................ 45 16 45 18 / 10 20 5 10 Mora............................ 51 23 47 24 / 5 10 5 5 Espanola........................ 50 22 52 26 / 5 20 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 45 27 47 28 / 0 20 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 24 50 26 / 0 20 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 32 53 31 / 0 20 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 28 55 32 / 0 20 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 25 57 27 / 0 20 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 29 55 31 / 0 20 0 5 Belen........................... 52 24 57 27 / 0 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 28 56 30 / 0 20 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 52 22 57 25 / 0 20 0 5 Corrales........................ 54 28 57 30 / 0 20 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 52 24 57 26 / 0 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 49 29 52 31 / 0 20 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 52 29 55 32 / 0 20 0 10 Socorro......................... 56 31 62 33 / 0 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 27 48 31 / 0 20 0 10 Tijeras......................... 46 29 50 33 / 0 20 0 10 Edgewood........................ 49 26 50 32 / 0 10 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 22 52 28 / 0 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 46 24 47 27 / 0 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 25 52 31 / 0 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 26 52 29 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 30 55 34 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 32 52 33 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 47 24 47 26 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 51 22 52 25 / 0 5 0 5 Springer........................ 53 23 52 24 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 51 26 52 29 / 0 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 52 32 55 34 / 0 10 0 0 Roy............................. 51 28 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 58 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 57 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 58 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 59 35 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 62 38 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 62 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 62 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.