textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain this afternoon may produce erratic wind gusts with localized moderate rainfall amounts.

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds pick up Sunday afternoon mostly through western New Mexico where peak gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be possible.

- Light rain will expand across western and central New Mexico this weekend, turning more spotty into Monday and Tuesday of next week while breezy to windy conditions turn more common.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Pleasant Fall conditions remain entrenched across New Mexico today, with looming changes to the weather pattern off in the distance. Water vapor satellite imagery depicts a 574dm H5 closed low off the CA coastline which is modeled to scoop up the remnants of what is now Tropical Storm Rachel and bring it ashore the northern Baja Peninsula Saturday night. A few isolated showers will favor the northwestern third of the state this afternoon, with expanding precipitation chances through the day Saturday as the remnant moisture of Rachel gets spun up into the Desert Southwest alongside increasing forcing. Unlike the most recent remnant tropical cyclone event involving Polo that ended September, the core of the deep layer tropical moisture associated with Rachel will fuse and merge more fully with the aforementioned H5 low, staying mostly west of the region thru SoCal and AZ. As such, the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks and flash flooding risk associated with this event are favored to stay west of the NM border. Nevertheless, fast moving showers with embedded thunderstorms will still favor western NM Saturday through Saturday night.

S/SW winds will pick up in strength Sunday in response to a jet max rounding the southeasterly portion of the merging tropical and mid- latitude cyclonic systems. This will bring breezy to windy conditions to most areas beginning late Sunday morning and lasting into Sunday evening. Depending on mixing, peak gusts along and west of the Continental Divide will reach 35 to 50 mph Sunday afternoon. Fast moving showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to favor the western third of the state, favored to finally reach eastward to the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain Sunday afternoon associated with a modest surface frontal boundary. Thereafter, precipitation chances take a downward trend into Sunday night as the by then fully absorbed remnants of Rachel eject northward over UT, with a dryslot favored to punch into AZ/NM.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Monday through Tuesday continues to see deterministic model suites trend toward the aforementioned dryslot remaining mostly dominant over NM, lodged between the larger scale synoptic trough to the W and NW and the remnants of what is now Hurricane Simon being pulled northward over northern Mexico and through the TX Big Bend region. There remains notable differences b/w deterministic model runs with the ECMWF being more progressive in tracking the H5 to the N/NW to southwest WY by midnight Tuesday night. The latest 12Z GFS run has become more progressive as well, tracking the H5 low steadily to the east over northern AZ and southeastern UT by the same time frame. The prior 06Z GFS run had to low stalling over AZ and progressing over NM much later by Wednesday night. The remaining question is how much of Hurricane Simon's remnant moisture can still reach southeastern NM Tuesday night. So there remains relatively low forecast confidence regarding rain chances over eastern NM Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as it will be heavily dependent on the precise track and timing of the H5 low to NM's N and NW.

Aside from rain chances, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft associated with the core of H5 low will increase snow chances over the northern mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A light dusting could end up gracing elevations <10k feet.

Thereafter, cooler and drier conditions sweep west to east through the state behind the H5 low's associated cold front. This will bring daytime high temperatures to near or below normal across the state to end next week. Overnight low temperatures will fall as well with many northern valley locations flirting with their first freezes of the season.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR prevails thru the TAF period, with perhaps a few stray isolated showers producing erratic gusty winds over western NM near and between KFMN and KGUP this afternoon. S/SW winds are expected to begin increasing Saturday afternoon most areas just beyond the current TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions begin to develop each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday as S/SW winds strengthen. Moisture will be the limiting factor however as the remnants of Hurricane's Rachel and Simon push thru the region Sunday night and Tuesday respectively. A dryslot wedged between a larger scale storm system to the N and NW of the region and Simon's remnants will keep some drier conditions thru the central swath of the state. But otherwise, fire weather conditions will be tempered by either showers/storms over northwestern NM, moderate humidity in central NM, or showers/storms thru southeastern NM during this stretch. Drier conditions with cooler Fall temperatures enter the region by late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 76 56 74 / 5 20 70 40 Dulce........................... 40 71 45 69 / 5 30 70 70 Cuba............................ 47 71 50 70 / 0 5 50 30 Gallup.......................... 49 73 49 71 / 0 10 50 30 El Morro........................ 46 70 47 69 / 5 30 40 20 Grants.......................... 48 73 50 72 / 0 30 30 20 Quemado......................... 48 72 50 71 / 0 20 30 10 Magdalena....................... 52 72 54 72 / 0 10 5 5 Datil........................... 46 69 49 68 / 0 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 46 77 50 70 / 0 5 60 80 Glenwood........................ 53 83 56 75 / 5 10 50 90 Chama........................... 43 63 45 61 / 5 30 60 80 Los Alamos...................... 50 70 53 70 / 0 0 30 20 Pecos........................... 45 72 49 72 / 0 0 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 67 48 68 / 0 10 20 10 Red River....................... 37 58 41 59 / 0 5 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 32 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 44 70 47 71 / 0 0 20 10 Mora............................ 40 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 49 77 53 78 / 0 0 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 50 72 54 72 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 74 53 75 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 79 60 79 / 0 5 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 80 59 79 / 0 5 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 82 58 81 / 0 5 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 80 59 79 / 0 10 20 0 Belen........................... 54 81 57 81 / 0 5 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 81 58 81 / 0 5 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 81 57 81 / 0 5 20 0 Corrales........................ 56 82 59 81 / 0 5 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 81 58 81 / 0 5 20 0 Placitas........................ 55 77 58 77 / 0 0 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 56 81 59 80 / 0 5 20 0 Socorro......................... 56 82 60 82 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 72 53 73 / 0 0 10 0 Tijeras......................... 53 73 55 74 / 0 0 10 0 Edgewood........................ 49 75 52 75 / 0 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 49 73 52 74 / 0 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 50 73 53 74 / 0 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 72 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 72 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 73 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 42 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 42 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 46 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 57 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 50 77 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 57 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 52 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 59 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 86 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.