textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Storm coverage will decrease today, but there will still be a risk of localized minor flooding mainly from the continental divide to the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening in locations where the ground is saturated from heavy rainfall that occurred the past few days.

- After a break from storms Sunday, storm coverage will increase over eastern areas Monday, then another impressive surge of monsoon moisture will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall over northern and central New Mexico with a risk of flash flooding Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

There will be a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity today, and especially Sunday when few if any storms will develop. Drier air will filter over the state from the southwest in response to an upper level low pressure system passing eastward over the central Rockies today, then onto the northern Great Plains Sunday night and Monday. GEFS PWATs will fall between 90-120% of normal today, then around 60-100% of normal on Sunday. Mainly between the continental divide and the central mountain chain, a few of today's stronger storms will be capable of producing up to 1 inch of rainfall, which could lead to localized minor flooding where the ground is saturated from periods of heavy rainfall over the past few days. Storm motion toward the northeast at speeds around 30-35 mph will probably require cells to train in succession for flooding to become impactful this afternoon and evening.

In response to the decrease in moisture, temperatures should climb a few to around 10 degrees today from Saturday's readings. High temperatures are forecast to vary from around 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages over eastern areas this afternoon to as much as 6 degrees below the averages in the west. A dry backdoor front will enter the eastern plains tonight into Sunday morning, dropping highs over east central areas on Sunday afternoon up to 4 degrees from today's readings, and as much as 8 degrees across the northeast. Monday will feature another few to 7 degrees of cooling on the eastern plains due to a gusty and moist backdoor front that will arrive late Sunday night and bank up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain by mid morning Monday. Moisture with the front, and increasing upper level diffluence over NM in response to an upper level low pressure system moving over central CA, should enable scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon and evening. A rich return flow of low level moisture, and a further enhancement of upper level dynamics over NM, should cause showers to increase in coverage late Monday night and Tuesday morning over eastern NM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Another very impressive surge of monsoon moisture is forecast to produce widespread rainfall over the forecast area Tuesday afternoon through Friday. Rich subtropical moisture will again be drawn northward Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned CA low pressure system tracks slowly east northeastward over the northern and central Rockies, while a mid-level high pressure system parks over eastern TX. During the latter half of the work week, the high is forecast to remain in place while drawing additional monsoon moisture and embedded disturbances northward over NM. At this time, periods of locally locally heavy rainfall look to favor all but the Four Corners Tuesday through Friday, with precip totals elsewhere during the work week potentially reaching 1-3 inches; with locally higher amounts over 4 inches. Models vary on whether a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific will enhance precipitation over the forecast area Thursday night and Friday. The operational run of the ECMWF brings the remnant moisture over much of NM, but the operational runs of the GFS and Canadian Models keep the tropical storm over the Pacific. The deciding factor could be how deeply an incoming storm system digs off the western US coast, since the latest ECMWF deepens the upper low significantly more than the GFS and drops it significantly farther south.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Given all the recent rainfall, some patchy fog is likely for the remainder of the night until mid morning on Saturday along and west of the central mountain chain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to linger for the remainder of tonight over southeast and far east central areas, as well as northwest areas. A few showers may linger into the morning around Chama and Dulce. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday afternoon and evening mainly from the continental divide to the central mountain chain, with spottier activity over southeast and far northeast areas. Storms will move toward the northeast around 25-30 KT on Saturday. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of erratic wind gusts up to 40 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Even with the drier air moving over the fire weather forecast area today through Sunday, minimum humidities are forecast to remain near and above 15 percent. After bottoming out Sunday, humidities will begin to rebound Monday. Therefore, the main fire weather concerns will continue to be erratic thunderstorm outflow for the remainder of the weekend and through the coming work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 50 79 47 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 77 37 77 36 / 20 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 46 75 45 / 40 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 76 45 76 45 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 45 73 45 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 47 77 47 / 30 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 48 74 49 / 40 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 53 75 55 / 40 10 0 0 Datil........................... 75 49 75 51 / 20 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 82 49 82 50 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 57 88 57 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 70 41 71 39 / 20 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 75 52 75 51 / 40 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 77 48 78 48 / 20 20 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 74 46 74 46 / 20 10 0 0 Red River....................... 65 39 65 37 / 20 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 71 41 71 40 / 10 20 0 0 Taos............................ 77 43 77 41 / 20 20 0 0 Mora............................ 78 46 77 45 / 10 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 81 51 82 49 / 30 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 76 53 77 53 / 20 20 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 50 79 49 / 30 20 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 58 82 59 / 30 30 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 56 81 56 / 40 30 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 55 83 55 / 40 30 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 57 81 57 / 40 30 0 0 Belen........................... 82 53 83 54 / 40 30 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 82 55 83 54 / 40 30 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 82 52 82 53 / 40 30 0 0 Corrales........................ 82 56 83 55 / 40 30 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 54 83 55 / 40 30 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 55 80 56 / 30 30 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 81 56 82 55 / 40 30 0 0 Socorro......................... 86 59 85 60 / 30 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 52 77 53 / 30 40 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 54 77 55 / 30 40 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 49 79 50 / 30 30 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 46 81 45 / 30 30 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 77 50 77 51 / 20 30 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 51 79 52 / 30 40 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 52 79 53 / 20 40 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 58 83 59 / 20 20 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 80 54 80 54 / 20 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 80 50 76 49 / 10 10 10 40 Raton........................... 84 47 81 48 / 10 10 10 20 Springer........................ 86 47 83 48 / 10 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 48 78 48 / 5 10 5 5 Clayton......................... 89 58 80 56 / 5 10 5 40 Roy............................. 85 53 81 54 / 5 5 5 5 Conchas......................... 93 59 89 60 / 5 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 88 60 87 57 / 10 10 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 92 61 87 59 / 5 10 5 5 Clovis.......................... 92 62 91 61 / 5 10 5 5 Portales........................ 93 63 93 62 / 5 10 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 93 60 92 59 / 5 20 0 5 Roswell......................... 95 61 95 63 / 20 20 0 5 Picacho......................... 89 59 89 59 / 30 10 10 0 Elk............................. 88 56 88 55 / 20 10 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.