textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 441 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A strong winter storm will impact much of central and northern New Mexico Friday through Sunday morning with snow, wintry mix, frigid temperatures, blowing snow, and treacherous travel conditions. Widespread minor impacts are expected with increasing chances for moderate to locally major impacts, especially along and east of the central mountain chain.

- Temperatures will plummet Friday in eastern New Mexico, with cold air spreading into central New Mexico Saturday through Monday morning. An extended period of bitterly cold temperatures will increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia, with the highest threat in the eastern plains.

- Dry weather returns early next week as temperatures struggle to climb back up to near seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 116 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

An upper low continues to spin offshore of southern CA with zonal flow overlaying NM. A continued stream of mid to high level moisture is feeding over the southwestern states with lots of altostratus and cirrostratus periodically moving overhead. At the surface, winds have started to turn northerly at Clayton, but the core of the Arctic air is still in the Dakotas and far northern plains states. As we head into the overnight hours, the subtropical influence from the Pacific low will spread into more of Mexico and southern NM with top-down moistening and slowly lowering cloud bases. Overnight temperatures will turn colder in the far northeastern corner of the state, but most remaining areas will be milder through Friday morning.

By late Friday morning, the southern zones will have enough saturation and top-down moistening for light showers to begin, mainly in the form of rain and high elevation snow (snow levels around 7,500-8,500 feet in those zones). This precipitation shield will expand over the southern half of NM into Friday afternoon with the west central to north central mountains also seeing an onset of snow with snow levels still staying high as warm, moist air advection continues west of the central mountain chain. In the eastern plains, the Arctic front will be overtaking as a ~1048 mb surface high settles into MN, IA, and the eastern Dakotas. Several places in the east will make it above freezing for daily highs, but the cold air advection will persist and intensify through the late day and into Friday night. Any precipitation (drizzle/flurries) in the northeastern zones will be very light Friday into Friday night. Have opted to go ahead and upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning for the northern/central mountains and eastern zones with a few Winter Weather Advisories in the northeast, but the onset of impacts will be highly variable. Tried to keep the hazard statement as generic and simple as possible, but many locales will likely see impacts at different onset times, even later into Friday night or Saturday morning. Subsequent shifts will also have to consider a Cold Weather Advisory for the frigid temperatures/wind chills in the east Saturday morning.

The remnants of the Pacific low will move toward the Sonoran and Chihuahua deserts on Saturday with the Arctic airmass gaining a firmer planting over the eastern half of NM. Subtropical moisture will start to become more subdued, and a northern stream shortwave trough will be approaching the Four Corners which will allow rain and snow to persist over the western and central zones (snow levels generally 6,500 to 7,500 ft and lowering late in the day into Saturday night). While the subtropical moisture may not be as pronounced, this Saturday time frame is when much of the deeper mid to high level will get juxtaposed over the colder Arctic airmass in eastern zones with lots of isentropic upglide to enhance cooling, condensation, and precipitation. The frigid temperatures east of the central mountain chain will keep precip frozen in most zones with high snow-to-liquid ratios, but a warm nose in southeastern zones such as Curry, Roosevelt, and Chaves counties could introduce brief melting aloft before hydrometeors refreeze at the surface (freezing rain/drizzle/sleet). Forecast soundings and NBM p-type probabilities show a warmer trend with this nose over the past few model runs, and more of a wintry mix has been implemented into this forecast package for these southeastern areas.

Into Saturday night and Sunday morning, the northern stream shortwave trough will cross NM, exiting the eastern zones by the afternoon. This will keep wintry precipitation going through the morning with all western zones having transitioned to snow and finally turning much colder while eastern zones remain frigid and snow (or mixed in the southeast). Precipitation should really dwindle by noon with drier, colder northwest flow persisting. Sunday night into Monday will then likely be the coldest night with single digits and sub-zero readings being common area-wide.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 116 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

The extended portion of the forecast period looks to remain mostly dry with the northwest flow aloft backing a bit more westerly on Monday. An upstream ridge comes into the picture on Tuesday, then crosses NM into Wednesday. This scenario will offer some light to moderate west northwest breezes over the central mountain chain and into the eastern plains, bringing a downsloping component that could help eat away snow pack, but it will likely be a slow melting process. Temperatures were adjusted accordingly, but this will prove to be challenging next week. The Wednesday ridge will then be followed by another shortwave trough on Thursday with the GFS/GEFS family showing a bit more sharpness with this feature along with a smattering of light precipitation, mainly in northern zones.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 454 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Thickening mid level clouds and light winds across the airspace overnight. A backdoor front will push through eastern NM during this time. Low clouds move into far eastern NM, including KCAO, KTCC, KCVN, and KCVS, around sunrise resulting in MVFR to gradually IFR ceilings. Rain and mountain snow moves into southern areas late Friday morning spreading northeast to most of central NM along and south of I-40 during the afternoon hours. The rain and snow will result in MVFR ceilings and visibilities with potential for IFR ceilings and visibilities across southern and eastern areas at the end of the TAF period. Snow will be limited to the mountains of central and western NM as well as northwest and east central NM behind the arctic front. Freezing rain on the caprock will result in significant icing concerns at KCVN and KCVS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are foreseen through the next several days. Weather conditions will start to deteriorate into Friday with rain, snow, and colder temperatures starting to arrive. The winter storm will strengthen with more widespread precipitation and more frigid air incoming Saturday with a couple to several inches of snow accumulations forecast, especially over the mountains and along and east of the central mountain chain. Conditions clear out into the middle of the day Sunday with many locations throughout northern and central NM forecast to receive at least 0.25 inch of liquid equivalent, offering some much needed soil and fuel moisture. Temperatures will be slow to warm up, but should start to make some gains by the middle of next week with snow pack melting away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 28 48 34 43 / 0 30 70 70 Dulce........................... 23 46 28 41 / 5 60 90 90 Cuba............................ 25 45 27 38 / 0 50 80 90 Gallup.......................... 21 48 27 40 / 0 50 70 80 El Morro........................ 24 45 30 39 / 0 60 70 80 Grants.......................... 22 49 27 44 / 0 50 70 80 Quemado......................... 26 46 31 41 / 5 60 60 80 Magdalena....................... 34 48 36 46 / 5 60 80 80 Datil........................... 28 45 32 42 / 5 60 70 80 Reserve......................... 27 51 31 47 / 10 70 70 80 Glenwood........................ 32 55 34 51 / 10 80 80 90 Chama........................... 22 39 25 36 / 5 60 80 90 Los Alamos...................... 30 43 30 34 / 0 50 80 90 Pecos........................... 23 42 21 30 / 0 50 80 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 21 43 27 36 / 0 30 70 80 Red River....................... 19 39 16 27 / 0 30 70 80 Angel Fire...................... 13 41 8 32 / 0 40 70 80 Taos............................ 20 45 25 36 / 0 40 70 80 Mora............................ 20 41 20 30 / 0 30 80 80 Espanola........................ 24 50 24 42 / 0 50 80 90 Santa Fe........................ 27 45 28 34 / 0 50 80 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 25 48 25 36 / 0 50 80 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 50 36 43 / 0 50 80 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 33 51 35 45 / 0 50 80 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 25 52 28 48 / 0 50 80 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 51 35 44 / 0 50 80 90 Belen........................... 28 52 34 49 / 0 50 80 80 Bernalillo...................... 28 52 33 44 / 0 50 80 90 Bosque Farms.................... 24 52 29 48 / 0 50 80 90 Corrales........................ 28 52 33 46 / 0 50 80 90 Los Lunas....................... 24 52 31 48 / 0 50 80 90 Placitas........................ 32 49 34 40 / 0 50 80 90 Rio Rancho...................... 31 50 35 44 / 0 50 80 90 Socorro......................... 34 53 38 52 / 5 70 70 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 29 46 29 35 / 0 50 80 90 Tijeras......................... 31 47 32 39 / 0 50 80 90 Edgewood........................ 25 46 26 34 / 0 50 80 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 19 46 22 34 / 0 50 80 90 Clines Corners.................. 23 39 21 25 / 0 50 80 90 Mountainair..................... 28 48 28 37 / 0 60 80 90 Gran Quivira.................... 28 48 29 36 / 0 70 80 90 Carrizozo....................... 34 51 35 44 / 5 70 90 80 Ruidoso......................... 30 45 29 35 / 10 80 90 80 Capulin......................... 16 27 6 15 / 0 10 40 50 Raton........................... 17 32 10 19 / 0 10 30 60 Springer........................ 18 34 11 21 / 0 10 30 60 Las Vegas....................... 20 37 16 21 / 0 30 70 80 Clayton......................... 18 23 4 13 / 5 30 70 60 Roy............................. 20 29 8 15 / 0 30 70 70 Conchas......................... 23 35 10 19 / 0 40 80 80 Santa Rosa...................... 24 37 16 19 / 0 50 80 80 Tucumcari....................... 23 34 9 17 / 0 40 80 80 Clovis.......................... 27 35 11 16 / 0 50 80 80 Portales........................ 26 39 10 17 / 0 50 80 80 Fort Sumner..................... 25 39 16 22 / 0 50 80 80 Roswell......................... 31 45 26 28 / 5 60 80 70 Picacho......................... 32 43 25 31 / 5 60 80 70 Elk............................. 32 47 26 35 / 10 70 80 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ210>218-221>224-226-229-232>240.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ227-228-230-231.

Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for NMZ207-208-219-225-241.