textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 418 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Above average temperatures will persist today and Thursday areawide.

- A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers with mountain snow from late Friday through Saturday morning. A few inches of snow are forecast above 8,000ft and there is a good chance of difficult travel conditions in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next week, with potential for more precipitation across western NM.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 111 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

West southwesterly flow aloft will be the rule through today and Thursday with speeds increasing slightly. Upstream, a couplet of upper lows is offshore of CA, and maritime air is streaming from southwest to northeast ahead of these features and into the southwestern states. This will keep periodic mid to high cloud cover moving into northern and central NM today and Thursday, and as has been advertised, PWATs will climb above normal (but still remain modest at less than 0.5 inch). This will lead to a slight overloading of clouds with hydrometeors that will lead to light rain and mountain flurries today and Thursday, mainly across northwestern to north central zones with high terrain areas squeezing out some weak orographics to assist precipitation production. In the east, a lee-side surface trough/low will develop today and linger over eastern CO before sagging into northeastern NM on Thursday. This will invoke some breeziness with downsloping allowing temperatures to rise both today and tomorrow. All areas should be running nearly 10 to 20 degrees above normal by Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 111 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

From Thursday into Friday, the couplet of lows offshore of CA will have merged and phased into one broader low that will cross the upper Baja and Gulf of CA before moving into AZ. The model consensus is for a slower track now, keeping the center of the low (or wave according to the ECMWF) west of NM, but diffluence aloft and resultant precipitation will be spreading into western NM zones by Friday afternoon. This would keep the colder air aloft on delay from arriving into NM, and snow levels would remain high, roughly between 7,500 to 8,500 ft Friday, as 700 mb temperatures would still be relatively warm (0 to -3 C). Any impacts from accumulations Friday afternoon would likely be confined above 9,000 ft. Snow levels will lower into Friday night and early Saturday morning though (6,000 to 7,000 ft) as the center of the low or wave tracks close to the I-40 corridor. In addition to the slower speed of the system, the QPF has been reduced with a general consensus for this trend among most models (particularly the weaker ECMWF). Temperature and moisture profiles do not appear to have changed much with the low/wave, but this has lowered confidence in the widespread 0.1 to 0.3" that was advertised over previous days' runs. Also, northern mountain snow amounts would trend down a couple inches (2 to 6 inches) based on latest runs. Regardless, this is a noteable pattern shift with the best precipitation prospects that northern and central NM has seen in the past couple of weeks, but it just is not looking as beneficial or impactful.

On the backside of the departing low/wave, a ridge of high pressure follows on early Sunday with dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures would have dropped closer to normal on Friday and Saturday, but will quickly bounce back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Sunday.

The southwesterlies aloft ramp up considerably over NM on Monday as a deep low encroaches upon the Pacific Northwest states. Latest deterministic models are not all that enthused about much precipitation entering NM, but the strengthening southwesterlies will lead to top-down moistening into AZ and western NM with some light precip not out of the realms of possibilities. The eastern plains will rest in a completely different regime, as the downsloping winds will lead to compressional warming and significantly lower humidity. This will cause fire danger to escalate amid the breezy to windy, warm, dry and spring-like conditions. The flow will potentially veer a bit more westerly while remaining strong into Tuesday, depending on the track and evolution of the aforementioned low. A similar regime would still seem to hold on Tuesday with precipitation chances persisting in western zones (and possibly increasing) while dry, warm, and windy conditions linger in the east.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 418 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Periods of mid to high level cloudiness will be common over northern and central New Mexico today into tonight. While VFR conditions will common over the vast majority of the state, there will be a few light rain showers across northwestern New Mexico with showers transitioning to snow above 9,000 feet in the Tusas/San Juans near the Colorado border. Occasional mountain peak obscurations will occur on these ranges today and tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Breezy southwest winds will develop today with humidity rising as maritime Pacific moisture streams our way. Minimum humidity will stay at or above 25 to 35%, and a few light, inconsequential showers will be observed in northwestern to north central zones through the day. Winds will veer more westerly into Thursday with humidity falling slightly to a 15 to 25% minimum range. Look for temperatures to rebound in eastern NM through Thursday with daytime highs reaching 10 to nearly 20 degrees above climatology for mid February. Hope is on the horizon for Friday through Saturday morning as a pair of upstream Pacific lows merge and move toward NM. The prospects for widespread rainfall greater than 0.1" have lowered some according to latest deterministic model runs, but many locations are still projected to receive wetting rain with the northern mountains receiving a couple to a few inches of snow. Conditions will dry out into Saturday afternoon and through Sunday with breezes veering southwesterly and increasing (especially in northeastern NM) Sunday afternoon. A deep low pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwestern states will drag strong southwesterly flow into NM Monday. While this may steer higher humidity and a few showers into western NM, it will have the opposite effect on eastern zones with strong downsloping, drying, and higher chances for critical conditions. A threat for critical conditions could linger into Tuesday for portions of eastern NM as well, depending on the fate of the Pacific Northwest low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 58 35 60 35 / 40 40 5 20 Dulce........................... 56 30 58 26 / 60 70 30 20 Cuba............................ 57 33 58 32 / 30 40 20 20 Gallup.......................... 58 26 60 26 / 20 10 0 20 El Morro........................ 58 32 58 33 / 20 10 5 20 Grants.......................... 62 27 62 27 / 20 10 5 20 Quemado......................... 61 33 60 34 / 5 5 5 10 Magdalena....................... 62 39 62 41 / 5 5 5 10 Datil........................... 60 34 59 35 / 5 5 5 10 Reserve......................... 65 31 65 33 / 5 5 5 10 Glenwood........................ 70 35 70 36 / 10 5 0 20 Chama........................... 49 29 51 25 / 50 60 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 56 37 57 38 / 10 30 10 20 Pecos........................... 58 34 59 34 / 0 10 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 34 54 32 / 10 20 10 20 Red River....................... 44 30 46 27 / 10 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 51 24 51 20 / 5 20 20 20 Taos............................ 57 31 58 27 / 10 20 10 20 Mora............................ 59 32 59 30 / 0 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 64 33 66 32 / 5 30 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 58 38 60 38 / 5 20 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 35 62 36 / 0 20 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 44 65 45 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 41 67 43 / 5 10 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 40 69 40 / 5 10 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 41 67 42 / 5 10 5 20 Belen........................... 67 37 69 39 / 5 10 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 66 40 68 41 / 5 10 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 67 37 69 38 / 5 10 5 20 Corrales........................ 66 40 68 41 / 5 10 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 67 39 69 40 / 5 10 5 20 Placitas........................ 62 42 62 42 / 5 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 65 40 68 41 / 5 10 5 20 Socorro......................... 70 41 71 43 / 0 5 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 39 59 40 / 5 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 59 39 60 40 / 5 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 62 36 62 38 / 0 10 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 31 64 33 / 0 10 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 59 34 59 35 / 0 5 0 10 Mountainair..................... 63 37 63 39 / 0 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 63 37 64 40 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 65 42 66 43 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 61 41 62 42 / 0 0 5 10 Capulin......................... 59 32 61 29 / 0 0 5 10 Raton........................... 61 29 63 29 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 64 29 66 29 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 61 33 63 33 / 0 5 5 10 Clayton......................... 61 42 69 36 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 60 34 67 35 / 0 0 5 10 Conchas......................... 67 37 75 38 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 63 37 70 39 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 67 39 75 38 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 64 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 65 38 75 42 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 62 36 73 40 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 62 39 73 43 / 0 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 65 39 72 43 / 0 0 5 5 Elk............................. 69 37 72 40 / 0 0 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.