textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- A higher coverage of thunderstorms across central and eastern New Mexico today and Saturday. Storms today and Saturday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.

- Strong east canyon winds across the eastern Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro this evening and early Saturday morning will result in difficult crosswinds on north to south oriented roads and highlands and blow around unsecured outdoor items.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico today, retreating to northwest and far west central New Mexico this weekend before expanding back east beginning Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

An upper level disturbance over the upper Mississippi River Valley has helped pushed a backdoor front through most areas along and east of the central mountain chain as well as push the 600 dam upper high at 500 mb west to AZ this morning. Higher moisture in the form of PWATS around 1 to 1.4 inches behind the backdoor front is resulting in a greater coverage of showers and storms across the east slopes of the central mountain chain currently. The latest near term guidance shows a slightly higher risk for burn scar flash flooding across the Ruidoso area this afternoon compared with to yesterday with storms across the Sacramento Mountains initializing just west and southwest of the burn scars before moving east. Storm motion looks to be brisk enough to reduce the threat somewhat but this will be worth watching these next few hours before the area is in the clear late this afternoon. Thunderstorms across the central mountain chain will move east-southeast across the eastern highlands and plains later this afternoon and evening. Storms along and east of the central mountain chain will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as well as severe hail and damaging wind gusts due to effective bulk shear values of 35 to 40 kts. The risk is highest across the east central plains with SPC introducing a slight risk late this morning. Meanwhile west of the central mountain chain, drier northwest flow around the upper high will help drop PWATS to around 0.5 to 0.9 inches for locations along and west of the Rio Grande Valley keeping conditions dry and hot across this part of the state. Heat Advisories are in effect for Farmington, Albuquerque, and Socorro to expected high temperatures in the low to mid 100s. A Heat Advisory is also currently in effect for the Roswell area due to expected high temperatures around 105 before storms along the backdoor front push south through the area mid this evening. Some isolated to scattered showers and storms still expected across the southern Gila Mountains and lower RGV the rest of this afternoon through mid this evening due to higher moisture of PWATS around 1 to 1.1 inches lingering across this part of the state.

By mid this evening, storms along and east of the central mountain chain will help push the backdoor front through the gaps of the central mountain chain resulting in a strong east canyon wind at canyon openings into the RGV. The MET and LAV guidance at KABQ is showing high potential for wind gusts > 50 mph late this evening and early Saturday morning, so a Wind Advisory has been issued for the ABQ Metro from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM Saturday. Strongest wind gusts up to 55 mph will be across eastern Albuquerque. Storms across eastern NM look to persist well into the evening before slowly tapering off early Saturday morning while the backdoor front continues pushing west to the AZ border come sunrise Saturday.

Higher moisture will be in place along and east of a backdoor front across the Continental Divide Saturday morning. Low level moisture will mix out across most areas west of the Rio Grande Valley midday with PWATS around 1 to 1.4 inches along and east of the Rio Grande Valley and along and south of U.S. 60. Showers and storms will get going across central and southern mountain ranges midday before moving south-southeast into surrounding lower elevations during the afternoon and evening hours due to upper level northerly flow on the western periphery of a 598 to 599 upper high over AZ. Storms along and east of the Rio Grande Valley will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail due to bulk shear values of 30 to 45 kts along with locally heavy rainfall due to the high moisture content mentioned above. The flash flooding risk will be highest on recent burn scars (i.e. Ruidoso area) and areas across central and eastern NM that received heavy rainfall from this afternoon's and evening storms. Ruidoso will likely see two rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The first round from storms developing over the Sacramento Mountains early Saturday afternoon with the second round mid to late Saturday evening as storms from the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and nearby highlands move south. For that reason, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Ruidoso area from noon to midnight. Finally, the heat will be the main story across northwest and far west central NM with high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 due to being close to the center of the 599 to 600 dam upper high over UT and AZ. Heat Advisories have been issued for the Northwest Plateau and well as the West Central Plateau (including Gallup and Zuni) due to recovery operations from flash flooding events the last few weeks. Storms Saturday evening will be focused along and south of I-40 before tapering off across southern NM around midnight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The upper high will begin nosing back east to over the Four Corners area Sunday before flattening across much of the desert SW and southern Great Basin Monday and beyond. Drier air moving in from the north will lower PWATS around 0.6 to 0.9 inches resulting in a much lower storm coverage. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be limited to the mountains and nearby highlands Sunday and Monday. With the 594 to 596 dam 500 mb upper high overhead along with downslope southwest and west winds, the heat will reintensify across central and eastern NM with upper 90s to mid 100s common across lower elevations. Heat Advisories will likely be needed again across the Northwest and West Central Plateau Sunday and will potentially need to be expanded to several central and eastern zones come Monday. PWATS gradually increase to around 1 to 1.1 inches beginning Tuesday helping to result in a slightly higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the western and central high terrain and nearby lower elevations. Shower and thunderstorm coverage appears to shift slightly west to areas along and west of the central mountain chain late next week as the upper high becomes more centered over Nevada and strengthens to ~ 597-599 dam at 500 mb. Temperatures will still be hotter than normal for early August with highs across lower elevations topping out in the mid 90s to low 100s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

An extensive line of SHRA/TS over eastern NM late this afternoon will surge southeast into west TX thru late this evening. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rainfall are likely with the heavier cells. A gap wind will surge west across the central mt chain this evening with gusts of 35 to 45KT expected from near KSAF southward to KABQ and Carrizozo. Winds will relax in the predawn hours. Saturday will be another active day with the main focus for SHRA/TS along and east of the Cont Divide after 1pm. Storm motion will be south around 10 to 15KT with heavy rain, strong outflow winds, and frequent lightning strikes from direct hits.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. A backdoor front has brought higher moisture and storm coverage to areas along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon. Storms will bring higher moisture west into the Rio Grande Valley and western New Mexico and a strong east canyon wind this evening into Saturday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms across central and eastern New Mexico Saturday. Storms today and Saturday will be capable of becoming severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall. The flash flood risk will be highest on area burn scars, low lying, poor drainage and urban areas. Meanwhile, hot and dry across northwest and far west central New Mexico. Drier and hotter weather expands back east early next week. Still hotter than normal with storm coverage gradually ticking up across the higher terrain and nearby lower elevations mid to late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 67 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 55 93 52 94 / 0 20 10 5 Cuba............................ 59 90 57 91 / 0 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 60 98 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 92 57 92 / 10 10 0 10 Grants.......................... 62 94 59 95 / 5 10 10 10 Quemado......................... 61 93 61 93 / 20 10 5 10 Magdalena....................... 64 91 62 90 / 30 20 20 20 Datil........................... 61 89 58 88 / 30 30 20 30 Reserve......................... 61 95 60 94 / 10 20 10 20 Glenwood........................ 66 97 63 97 / 20 30 20 30 Chama........................... 52 82 50 85 / 10 50 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 62 84 60 88 / 10 50 10 10 Pecos........................... 57 82 54 86 / 20 80 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 83 54 88 / 50 30 20 5 Red River....................... 46 72 45 78 / 70 50 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 39 77 36 81 / 70 80 10 30 Taos............................ 54 87 51 91 / 50 40 10 5 Mora............................ 52 79 50 84 / 80 80 10 30 Espanola........................ 62 91 59 94 / 20 40 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 61 86 60 89 / 10 60 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 90 58 92 / 10 60 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 94 65 95 / 10 30 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 96 64 97 / 20 30 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 97 64 100 / 20 20 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 66 98 / 10 20 10 0 Belen........................... 65 98 63 99 / 30 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 96 64 99 / 10 30 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 63 97 61 99 / 20 20 20 0 Corrales........................ 67 96 65 99 / 10 30 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 65 97 63 99 / 20 10 20 0 Placitas........................ 65 93 63 95 / 10 40 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 67 95 65 98 / 10 20 10 5 Socorro......................... 70 98 67 96 / 30 10 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 87 57 90 / 20 50 10 20 Tijeras......................... 61 90 59 92 / 20 50 10 20 Edgewood........................ 57 89 54 92 / 20 60 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 90 52 92 / 20 70 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 83 55 88 / 20 60 20 20 Mountainair..................... 57 89 56 90 / 50 50 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 59 90 57 89 / 50 60 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 65 91 62 88 / 50 70 60 10 Ruidoso......................... 59 81 56 81 / 60 80 60 20 Capulin......................... 53 82 52 90 / 80 50 10 0 Raton........................... 53 88 52 94 / 80 60 10 5 Springer........................ 54 89 53 96 / 70 50 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 55 82 53 88 / 60 80 10 20 Clayton......................... 62 90 60 95 / 30 30 20 0 Roy............................. 58 85 56 91 / 60 50 20 0 Conchas......................... 63 93 61 99 / 70 30 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 60 95 / 60 40 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 94 61 99 / 80 40 30 0 Clovis.......................... 65 92 63 94 / 80 40 30 0 Portales........................ 66 92 63 95 / 80 30 40 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 92 63 95 / 70 40 40 0 Roswell......................... 71 95 68 98 / 40 20 60 0 Picacho......................... 65 89 62 92 / 40 40 60 5 Elk............................. 62 85 59 88 / 30 60 60 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-220-238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-205.

Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ219.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ226.