textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms today will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall, mainly from southwestern to northeastern New Mexico. A couple storms over northeast New Mexico may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A strong upper level high centered over AZ today will force dry air from eastern UT and western CO southward into northwest NM. Humidity will fall below 10% north and west of the ABQ metro with near-record hot temps and slight northwest breezes. Meanwhile, a 50kt speed max in northwest flow aloft will slide over northeast NM while low level remains banked against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. A few strong storms may slide over northeast NM with large hail and damaging winds possible. The southern high terrain will also see a few storms with small footprints of heavy rainfall, including the Ruidoso area.

The drier air will spread even farther south and east across more of central and eastern NM Friday. Near-record to record hot temps with humidity <15% and more northwest breezes will impact northern and western NM. This pattern may allow any recent lightning strikes in dry fuels to perk up as new fire starts. A couple high-based and gusty showers will approach west-central and southwest NM by late Friday as the upper high weakens and drifts south toward the NM bootheel.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The upper high will continue drifting east across southern NM on Saturday. Temps will remain hot areawide but with slightly higher humidity and an uptick in high-based showers and storms over western NM. The high will drift even farther east into TX by Sunday with a more noteworthy increase in moisture over western NM. An extension of the upper high westward into southern NM may choke off the better moisture approaching from northern MX. Confidence is low on an actual uptick in the coverage of storms with heavy rainfall. Temps will also remain hot, especially over eastern NM.

Monday thru Wednesday are still looking like the more active days as the upper high moves farther east toward the lower MS River Valley while an upper trough approaches from the west. A robust plume of monsoon moisture will attempt to surge northward into NM. However, this type of pattern has been advertised many times this season with very little to show for it. Fortunately, temps will trend cooler but still slightly above normal for central and eastern NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Isolated SHRA/TS will form around the southern high terrain and parts of northeast NM after 1PM. A couple cells in northeast NM may become strong after 2PM. Storm motions will be toward the southeast. Northern and western NM will be very dry with SKC and slight northwest breezes. A northeast wind shift will move thru northeast and east-central NM late tonight with patchy low cigs possible along the Sangre de Cristo Mts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A very dry airmass for early September will slide into northwest NM today and Friday. While not even marginally critical, the combo of light northwest breezes (gusts 15-25 mph), hot temps, single digit min humidity, and poor overnight recoveries will occur in an area already experiencing severe to extreme drought this summer. ERCs are forecast to increase to near the 80th percentile. Recent lightning strikes may produce new fire starts today or Friday in northwest NM.

Saturday and possibly Sunday will feature the dry air spreading even farther south and east into more of central and eastern NM while min humidity begins to increase over western NM. High-based and gusty showers and storms may form across northern and western NM with more lightning starts possible in dry fuels. Hot temps will continue as well areawide.

A wetter pattern will attempt to redevelop Monday thru Wednesday with low confidence on areal coverage of wetting rainfall. Temps will at least trend cooler with higher humidity areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 91 53 92 60 / 0 0 10 5 Dulce........................... 89 45 90 52 / 0 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 87 54 89 57 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 90 51 89 55 / 0 0 20 30 El Morro........................ 85 51 84 54 / 0 0 10 20 Grants.......................... 88 53 89 58 / 0 0 10 10 Quemado......................... 85 55 84 57 / 0 0 20 20 Magdalena....................... 85 60 87 63 / 0 0 20 0 Datil........................... 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 20 10 Reserve......................... 91 56 89 57 / 5 0 30 20 Glenwood........................ 97 61 96 61 / 10 5 20 20 Chama........................... 82 47 83 51 / 0 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 84 60 86 62 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 88 53 90 57 / 0 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 50 84 53 / 0 5 5 0 Red River....................... 81 40 81 43 / 5 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 36 82 40 / 10 10 0 0 Taos............................ 85 50 88 54 / 0 5 5 0 Mora............................ 81 50 86 54 / 20 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 91 58 93 62 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 88 58 89 60 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 56 91 60 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 64 94 66 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 65 95 68 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 64 96 67 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 64 96 67 / 0 0 5 0 Belen........................... 95 62 97 64 / 0 0 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 95 62 96 66 / 0 0 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 61 96 63 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 96 63 97 66 / 0 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 60 96 62 / 0 0 10 0 Placitas........................ 91 62 93 65 / 0 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 94 63 95 67 / 0 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 95 68 97 70 / 0 0 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 58 87 62 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 90 60 91 63 / 0 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 89 57 90 61 / 0 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 52 91 55 / 0 0 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 87 56 88 59 / 5 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 88 58 90 60 / 0 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 58 89 60 / 5 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 89 64 92 66 / 10 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 83 58 86 59 / 50 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 78 53 86 56 / 50 20 0 0 Raton........................... 85 50 91 53 / 50 10 0 0 Springer........................ 87 51 92 55 / 20 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 89 57 / 10 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 84 60 93 62 / 20 20 0 0 Roy............................. 85 57 91 60 / 10 30 0 0 Conchas......................... 93 63 98 65 / 5 20 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 92 63 96 65 / 5 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 92 64 98 66 / 20 30 0 0 Clovis.......................... 92 65 98 67 / 30 30 0 0 Portales........................ 94 65 99 67 / 30 30 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 66 99 68 / 5 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 98 69 101 70 / 0 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 63 96 65 / 40 5 10 0 Elk............................. 87 59 91 61 / 70 5 10 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.