textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026 - A potent cold front moving south through the area today will create showers and storms over northern New Mexico along with a brief period of strong wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

- Valley rain and mountain snow will bring minor travel impacts with reduced visibility to the northern mountains today and tonight.

- A late season hard freeze tonight will pose a risk to newly budding plants and sensitive vegetation over northern valley areas and the northeast plains Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

The latest water vapor imagery shows fast southwest flow aloft persisting over NM ahead of an approaching northern stream trough over western WY. At the surface, a cold front is draped from near Salt Lake City thru northern CO to the Front Range and northeast NM. A large area of rain/snow ahead of the upper level shortwave will continue pushing south thru CO into northern NM today. Models are now in very good agreement with a slightly more progressive trough passage today and tonight. The overall weather impacts are still in line with previous forecasts with a couple details to note. Model guidance shows frontogenesis taking place today as the cold front surges south thru NM. An area of showers and storms will develop ahead of the cold front over northern NM then surge southward to the I-40 corridor thru late this afternoon. The 00Z HREF ensemble max wind gust field hints at a sharpening cold front with a burst of intense wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph over central and western NM. Gusts may reach even higher over eastern NM where more impressive frontogenesis takes place. Snowfall amounts trended a tad lighter with a faster trough passage so a Winter Weather Advisory is not anticipated due to brief and limited impacts to the high terrain.

Much colder air filtering into the region behind the front will bring a late season freeze to much of northern and northeast NM. A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight. Widespread low clouds will develop in the wake of the front as well over eastern NM. Thursday will start out very chilly then warm up nicely by the afternoon with clearing skies and light winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Much warmer temps will arrive Friday with rising H5 pressure heights and very dry air returning to the region. A fast-moving upper level shortwave passing north of the area Saturday will create stronger northwest winds with very low humidity. Downslope flow into eastern NM will lead to temps of 15 to 20F above normal. Widespread upper 80s are likely in the RGV with mid 90s over parts of eastern NM. A strong backdoor cold front will enter eastern NM Sunday with higher humidity and cooler temps. This boundary will increase chances for showers and storms east of the central mt chain Sunday afternoon.

Even warmer and drier weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as a 590dm H5 ridge crests over southern NM. There is currently a 50-55% chance that Roswell hits 100F both days while ABQ has a 90% chance of reaching 90F on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Patchy fog and widespread MVFR cigs have developed in the wake of a backdoor cold front over northeast NM (IFR near KCAO). Showers and mountain snow will spread into northern NM today as a potent cold front surges south from CO. An area of gusty SHRA/TS will form along the front over northwest NM then push southeast toward KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF thru 4pm. A brief period with gusts up to 40KT is possible along the FROPA. The backdoor portion of the cold front will intensify while surging south thru eastern NM late today and create a period with gusts up to 45KT. IFR cigs over northeast NM today will likely persist into tonight in the wake of the front over eastern NM. Elsewhere across central and western NM, clearing will occur after sunset with lighter winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for the next 7 days. Wetting rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.20" with locally higher values near 0.50" were common over much of western and central NM the past 24 hours. A much colder storm system diving south from CO today will produce valley rain showers and mountain snow across northern NM thru late tonight. Snowfall amounts of 2-5" are expected in the Sangre de Cristo Mts with 1-2" possible near the CO border of northeast NM. Snow levels may fall to 6,500' tonight as a strong cold front surges south thru the area. After a cool start Thursday, a warming trend will occur thru early next week while an upper level ridge builds along the West Coast. Northwest winds will be stronger on Saturday with minimum humidity falling to near 15% over the Northwest Plateau. This may produce a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather. The next backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Sunday with increasing chances for showers and storms along and east of the central mt chain. Hot and dry weather is expected early next week but winds appear to remain mostly light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 30 71 41 / 30 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 58 24 69 26 / 70 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 59 28 67 35 / 50 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 26 70 31 / 30 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 29 68 36 / 10 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 65 27 71 34 / 30 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 62 32 68 37 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 66 38 69 44 / 5 5 5 0 Datil........................... 61 33 67 40 / 0 5 5 0 Reserve......................... 69 34 75 33 / 5 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 72 40 79 38 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 50 22 63 29 / 90 20 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 34 66 42 / 50 20 5 0 Pecos........................... 61 28 67 36 / 40 50 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 24 63 36 / 80 60 5 0 Red River....................... 42 20 53 30 / 90 70 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 49 20 60 23 / 90 60 10 0 Taos............................ 57 24 67 28 / 70 30 5 0 Mora............................ 57 26 67 36 / 80 60 10 0 Espanola........................ 64 33 72 38 / 60 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 32 66 41 / 40 30 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 30 69 38 / 30 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 40 71 47 / 20 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 40 72 43 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 38 75 41 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 39 74 44 / 20 20 0 0 Belen........................... 73 38 74 38 / 5 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 37 75 43 / 20 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 36 74 37 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 37 75 43 / 20 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 37 74 39 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 38 70 45 / 20 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 38 74 44 / 20 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 43 77 46 / 5 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 34 66 43 / 20 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 34 68 43 / 20 20 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 32 69 36 / 10 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 28 71 30 / 5 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 62 29 66 38 / 5 40 5 0 Mountainair..................... 66 32 69 38 / 5 10 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 65 33 68 39 / 0 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 68 42 71 46 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 36 66 42 / 0 5 10 0 Capulin......................... 39 22 62 34 / 80 60 5 0 Raton........................... 45 24 66 32 / 80 60 5 0 Springer........................ 54 25 68 33 / 80 60 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 26 68 36 / 50 60 10 0 Clayton......................... 45 28 69 43 / 80 70 0 0 Roy............................. 55 28 66 37 / 70 70 10 0 Conchas......................... 69 33 75 42 / 30 70 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 34 72 41 / 10 50 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 34 74 45 / 20 60 0 0 Clovis.......................... 73 34 73 45 / 0 30 0 0 Portales........................ 75 35 74 45 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 75 36 73 42 / 0 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 80 43 73 46 / 0 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 72 38 71 43 / 0 10 10 0 Elk............................. 70 36 72 40 / 0 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-217-218.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ228>231.