textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern and central New Mexico this week, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and small hail.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered showers continue tonight around the region, with a few embedded storms, associated with a disturbance that is currently located over the Southwest Mountains. This feature will be the focus of convection today as it lifts northward along the Continental Divide. This disturbance will bring even more moisture with it, surging PWATs to 200% of normal across the western third of the state, with PWATs 150-200% of normal in central NM. Widespread showers and storms will be efficient rain producers, increasing the threat of both flash flooding and wet microbursts. Flash flooding is a possibility almost anywhere around the region, but the risk will be highest over the Southwest Mountains today. Storm motions will be towards the north/northeast at 10 to 15 mph, but storms will attempt to propagate southward, keeping updrafts anchored over the same areas. This will likely lead to localized rainfall totals in the 1- 3" range. Much of this area received at least 0.5" of soaking rainfall overnight, with some areas getting as much as 2".

Hi-res models, including the RRFS, are picking up on a cluster of storms developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains early in the afternoon and moving into the northeast plains during the late afternoon and evening. This cluster should become outflow dominant, limiting the flash flood potential, but a potent outflow boundary could pack west wind gusts of 30 to 60 mph across Colfax, Harding, and Union Counties.

The extensive cloud coverage will keep temperatures down today, with highs actually slightly below average in the western half of the state. This will be a welcomed change from the record heat during the first couple weeks of the month.

The trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward Wednesday, keeping the plume of sub-tropical moisture focused over eastern AZ and western NM. Moisture transport will intensify under the influence of stronger southerly flow. This will have the impact of increasing storm coverage and storm speeds as well. The coverage of rainfall will likely peak on Wednesday and it could be the wettest day of the Monsoon Season in terms of coverage of wetting rainfall. The probability of 0.5" for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday night is at least 40% everywhere along and east of the central mountain chain, with a 90%+ chance over the high terrain of western and northern NM. That being said, the probability of 2"+ is quite low, with the Northwest Highlands the only area showing greater than a 20% chance. This does not mean that flash flooding is not a concern though because the training of storms will more than likely result in areas with 2"+. The flash flood risk Wednesday will be maximized along the Continental Divide where there will be up to 350 units of IVT (Integrated Vapor Transport) moving south to north along the Divide.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Moisture transport will only ramp up Wednesday night into Thursday as a disturbance rotating around the west coast trough sweeps through the Four Corners region. At this point, soils across much of western and central NM will be saturated and it will take less rainfall than normal to produce flash flooding. Given the large scale forcing and moisture transport, showers and storms will continue into the overnight and even into the morning hours. This is expected to limit afternoon destabilization and therefore rainfall rates, but the overall coverage of showers and storms will remain high regardless of potential rates. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool, with even chilly temperatures in the mountains where temps will struggle to reach 70 in the afternoon and should drop into the 40s at night.

The west coast trough funneling moisture into the desert southwest will begin to lift northwestward into the northern Rockies Friday, tilting the moisture plume to become more zonal and cutting off the subtropical tap. However, there will still be plenty of lingering moisture for showers and storms through Friday, with a more stark drier trend on Saturday. The downtick will be short-lived since the same trough exiting into the High Plains could send a backdoor front into eastern NM that replenishes moisture once again.

The subtropical jet stream is forecast to become more active next week, favoring the continuation of wet weather over the desert southwest. While technically still part of Monsoon Season, this transitional pattern is much more Fall-like in nature with more active westerlies.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A few showers linger across south central and southeast New Mexico this morning. Coverage of showers and storms will increase around 18Z, with storm motions towards the north/northeast at around 10 knots. Stronger storms will have the potential to produce strong outflow wind gusts are create brief visibility reductions. A cluster of storms across the northeast may produce wind gusts in excess of 40 knots. At least scattered showers and storms will likely linger into the overnight hours. MVFR to IFR cigs will likely develop across the northeast after 06Z with these low clouds expanding westward towards the central mountain chain by 12Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Numerous showers and storms are likely each day through Friday around central and northern New Mexico, with the most widespread activity generally focusing along the Continental Divide. Confidence is high for widespread wetting rainfall and many locations, even lower elevations, will likely have multi-day rainfall totals exceeding one inch. Showers and storms will generally move from south to north each day, with storm motions becoming faster late week as the region comes under the influence of a trough over the west coast.

Rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and evening each day, but at least scattered convection is forecast to continue during the overnight and morning hours each day, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorms may produce gusty and erratic outflow winds, with gusty south winds favored given the storm motions. Excellent humidity recoveries are expected each of the next several mornings areawide and some locations may even have patchy morning fog later in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 81 58 75 55 / 20 50 80 80 Dulce........................... 78 46 74 45 / 30 80 90 100 Cuba............................ 75 51 73 50 / 30 60 90 90 Gallup.......................... 76 50 72 49 / 40 40 90 80 El Morro........................ 72 49 71 48 / 50 50 90 80 Grants.......................... 74 52 74 51 / 70 50 100 90 Quemado......................... 73 54 73 53 / 80 40 100 80 Magdalena....................... 74 57 75 57 / 70 50 80 90 Datil........................... 71 54 71 53 / 70 50 100 90 Reserve......................... 78 55 78 54 / 60 40 90 90 Glenwood........................ 82 59 84 58 / 40 60 90 90 Chama........................... 72 47 69 48 / 30 80 90 100 Los Alamos...................... 75 57 74 56 / 60 70 90 100 Pecos........................... 77 53 79 53 / 70 70 100 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 51 74 52 / 40 60 70 90 Red River....................... 65 44 65 45 / 50 60 80 90 Angel Fire...................... 70 39 71 39 / 70 60 100 90 Taos............................ 78 49 77 49 / 40 60 80 90 Mora............................ 74 51 74 51 / 80 70 100 90 Espanola........................ 82 56 81 55 / 60 60 90 90 Santa Fe........................ 77 56 78 56 / 50 70 90 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 55 79 54 / 40 70 90 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 61 81 60 / 20 60 90 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 60 81 58 / 20 50 80 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 59 83 57 / 20 50 80 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 62 81 60 / 20 50 80 90 Belen........................... 83 58 83 56 / 30 50 80 90 Bernalillo...................... 83 60 81 58 / 20 60 90 100 Bosque Farms.................... 82 56 82 54 / 20 50 80 90 Corrales........................ 82 60 82 58 / 20 50 80 90 Los Lunas....................... 82 58 82 56 / 20 50 80 90 Placitas........................ 80 60 79 59 / 30 60 90 90 Rio Rancho...................... 82 61 81 59 / 20 50 80 100 Socorro......................... 84 62 85 61 / 40 60 70 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 54 77 53 / 30 70 90 90 Tijeras......................... 76 57 77 56 / 30 60 90 90 Edgewood........................ 77 53 78 52 / 40 60 100 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 50 81 49 / 40 60 100 90 Clines Corners.................. 76 53 78 53 / 50 70 100 80 Mountainair..................... 78 54 79 54 / 40 60 90 80 Gran Quivira.................... 78 55 79 55 / 30 50 80 80 Carrizozo....................... 83 60 81 59 / 30 50 80 70 Ruidoso......................... 76 56 77 56 / 60 50 100 70 Capulin......................... 70 52 76 55 / 20 70 70 50 Raton........................... 78 52 80 53 / 40 70 90 70 Springer........................ 82 53 82 54 / 50 60 90 70 Las Vegas....................... 78 54 77 54 / 60 80 100 90 Clayton......................... 78 57 85 62 / 5 50 20 40 Roy............................. 79 56 81 58 / 20 80 70 70 Conchas......................... 90 61 88 63 / 30 80 60 70 Santa Rosa...................... 87 60 85 61 / 50 80 60 70 Tucumcari....................... 92 62 89 63 / 40 80 40 50 Clovis.......................... 92 63 89 63 / 20 80 20 20 Portales........................ 93 64 91 65 / 30 80 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 92 63 89 63 / 30 60 40 60 Roswell......................... 95 65 92 66 / 30 50 20 40 Picacho......................... 86 59 85 60 / 80 50 80 60 Elk............................. 84 58 82 58 / 70 50 80 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for NMZ208-209-241.