textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Storms will increasingly favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain Friday through the weekend.

- Near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat- related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The 597dm H5 monsoon high remains centered midway along the AZ/NM border today resulting in a day similar to what was observed Wednesday with subtle differences. Convective initiation is already beginning over the high terrain of the northern mountains and south- central mountains this hour. Showers and storms developing along the central mountain chain will favor a slow and steady motion toward the SE/ESE out and over the adjacent highlands late today and evening. The more N-S steering flow is expected to limit the eastward progression these storms will make it toward the TX border relative to Wednesday. Slightly lower SBCAPE in the realm of 750- 1250 J/kg over the highlands will also limit the potential for pulse severe storms here as well. Nevertheless, modest 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kts will allow for a few storms to threaten severe weather mainly along and immediately southeast of the Sangre de Cristo's. Storms over the Sacramento Mts near the Ruidoso burn scars have and are expected to mostly stay south of Otero County line. Although new convective updrafts look to creep northward thru the day, individual cells themselves will favor a southerly motion. Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity over west-central NM southward will be slow moving with short lifespans and isolated wetting footprints. Much drier boundary layer conditions here highlighted by another round of 40-50+ Td depressions will favor widespread gusty and erratic winds emanating from decaying thunderstorms.

Abundant convective debris clouds in the form of broken stratus and cirrus will likely obscure tonight's lunar eclipse. Much of this will clear thru the late overnight period into Friday morning however. Another round of valley fog in the Moreno Valley by Angel Fire is also likely to redevelop. Otherwise, a calm Friday morning weather wise will yield to another day of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing over the high terrain. The centroid of the H5 monsoon high slides a bit eastward over central NM, slowing storm motions areawide. Wetting footprints will be small with overall short storm lifespans. A moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding will remain over Ruidoso however given the slow storm track and favorability for a storm to develop directly over the scars there. Short storm lifespans will limit the higher end rainfall potential here, thus at this time precluding the need for a Flood Watch. Widespread strong and erratic wind gusts will be the main hazard from decaying convection across the forecast area Friday evening and into Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PWATs climb to the 1.00" mark Saturday on their way higher to 1.10" to 1.20" by Sunday and Monday, thanks to the monsoon high sliding eastward toward the TX border by Saturday. This will allow for a plume of monsoon moisture to advect northward into the Desert Southwest focused thru eastern AZ and western NM. Daily rounds of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will favor this plume across western and northwestern NM Saturday thru at least Monday. Any flooding potential across western NM will be limited by storm motions being just fast enough, but favoring areas where storms train over the same location repeatedly. The Rio Grande Valley and areas along the central mountain chain will be in a transition zone with the best chances for thunderstorm activity late in the afternoon finding its way eastward from the Continental Divide. One area of lower forecast certainty will be Sunday's convective potential with the likelihood for cloud cover persisting late Saturday night thru Sunday morning. This would limit and delay destabilization for convective initiation to begin. Meanwhile, temperatures begin to lower thru western NM, staying hot near the 100F mark for the eastern plains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

An isolated strong to severe storm will remain possible for the next hour or two across northeast or east central NM with hail up to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds greater than 40kt. Elsewhere, much of the convection has ended, though a few showers persist. These showers will also diminish over the next 1-3 hours. Storms will redevelop near or shortly after 18Z Friday across the high terrain. Storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds, as well as brief heavy rainfall. Movement will be slow, but should generally move toward the south. Brief MVFR vsbys may occur in heavy rain. More storms are expected across western NM than what occurred on Thursday, but fewer storms are expected across the east. Most storms should diminish by 06Z Sat.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms continue with varying flavors of behavior. Today and Friday will feature short-lived storms threatening more widespread strong and erratic gusts over portions of western NM into the Rio Grande Valley, while storms along the central mountain chain will be wetting moving S/SE over the adjacent highlands. Saturday thru Monday will see a monsoonal plume of moisture switch afternoon thunderstorm activity to more more western and northwestern NM, pushing into the Rio Grande Valley during the late afternoon and evening period. Dry and hot conditions will favor the eastern plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 96 66 91 / 0 5 10 20 Dulce........................... 48 91 51 88 / 5 10 10 20 Cuba............................ 58 89 60 87 / 10 10 20 30 Gallup.......................... 58 92 58 89 / 5 10 20 40 El Morro........................ 57 88 57 85 / 5 20 20 60 Grants.......................... 59 91 59 88 / 5 20 20 50 Quemado......................... 59 88 59 86 / 10 30 30 50 Magdalena....................... 63 88 64 87 / 10 30 20 40 Datil........................... 59 86 58 84 / 10 40 30 60 Reserve......................... 59 93 57 91 / 10 40 30 30 Glenwood........................ 65 97 62 95 / 20 40 30 20 Chama........................... 51 84 54 82 / 5 20 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 61 87 63 86 / 30 30 20 40 Pecos........................... 56 87 59 88 / 20 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 85 57 85 / 30 20 20 30 Red River....................... 46 75 49 76 / 30 20 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 37 80 43 81 / 30 30 20 30 Taos............................ 53 89 56 89 / 10 20 20 20 Mora............................ 51 84 55 85 / 30 30 20 40 Espanola........................ 60 94 63 93 / 20 10 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 88 63 88 / 20 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 91 61 91 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 70 94 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 95 68 94 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 97 67 96 / 10 5 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 95 70 95 / 20 10 20 20 Belen........................... 65 97 66 96 / 10 5 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 66 96 68 96 / 20 10 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 63 97 65 96 / 10 5 20 20 Corrales........................ 67 97 69 96 / 20 10 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 65 97 67 96 / 10 5 20 20 Placitas........................ 66 93 68 93 / 20 10 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 96 69 95 / 20 10 20 20 Socorro......................... 70 98 70 97 / 10 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 88 63 88 / 20 10 20 20 Tijeras......................... 62 90 64 90 / 20 10 20 20 Edgewood........................ 57 91 60 91 / 20 10 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 92 57 92 / 20 10 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 57 87 61 88 / 30 20 30 10 Mountainair..................... 58 89 60 90 / 20 20 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 89 60 90 / 20 20 30 10 Carrizozo....................... 65 90 64 91 / 30 20 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 82 58 83 / 40 50 20 30 Capulin......................... 56 86 58 89 / 30 20 30 20 Raton........................... 52 90 54 92 / 30 20 20 20 Springer........................ 54 92 56 94 / 30 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 54 86 56 89 / 40 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 63 91 68 97 / 30 5 20 10 Roy............................. 58 89 62 93 / 30 10 30 10 Conchas......................... 65 97 68 101 / 30 5 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 63 93 66 98 / 40 10 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 65 97 69 101 / 20 5 10 0 Clovis.......................... 65 94 68 98 / 20 10 5 0 Portales........................ 65 94 68 99 / 20 10 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 96 69 100 / 40 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 69 98 71 101 / 30 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 62 92 63 95 / 20 20 5 10 Elk............................. 59 88 59 90 / 20 40 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.