textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1115 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds each afternoon and evening over parts of eastern New Mexico through Thursday.

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with the strongest storms over northeast and east central areas each afternoon and evening through Thursday.

- Record and near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today, more-so Wednesday, then remain quite active through Thursday evening as disturbances clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft. The center of the ~ 597 DAM high pressure system that has been setting daily maximum 500 mb height records over the state will also drift gradually more southwestward reaching NM's southwest border with AZ by Wednesday and remaining there Thursday. This will enable Gulf moisture to continue increasing on the eastern plains through Wednesday behind moist backdoor fronts aided by thunderstorm outflows. As a result, the central mountain chain eastward will be the favored location for showers and thunderstorms each day through midweek. Many places west of the central mountain chain will also see an increase in storm coverage during the Wednesday/Thursday period after today's thunderstorm outflows spread Gulf moisture there. Each afternoon and evening increased shear with the disturbances in northwest flow aloft will enable some storms along and east of the central mountain chain to turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Further, PWATS near and above 1.20" over eastern areas today, near and above 1.30" Wednesday, and near and above 1.10" Thursday will enable some showers and storms along and east of the central mountain chain to produce locally heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening. NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates the three day total rain accumulation will reach over 3" in a few spots from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, and over 2" on parts of the east central plains, with a risk of localized flash flooding from stronger storms.

With the high pressure system overhead, high temperatures will continue to climb around 5 to 12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon; except for only a few degrees above average over east central and northeast areas Wednesday and Thursday. These will equate to record and near-record readings mainly over southern areas today, then over central and western areas Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity will trend downward Friday afternoon and evening as the amplitude of the upper high decreases and an east-to-west ridge axis develops allowing drier air to move over western and northern parts of the state. Storm coverage will then increase over central and western areas Saturday, and especially Sunday, as the upper high drifts eastward toward the lower Mississippi River valley, enabling a more traditional plume of monsoon moisture to set up. Models vary on how well the monsoon plume will remain over the forecast area on Monday, depending on how deeply an upper level trough digs over the west coast.

Otherwise, record and near-record high temperatures are forecast to continue through the end of this week. Temperatures will trend closer to average early next week over western areas with the arrival of the monsoon moisture plume, while eastern readings climb around 10 degrees above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Clouds forming over the high terrain will grow into SHRA/TS thru 3pm. Any activity along and west of the central mt chain will be capable of producing strong downburst wind gusts >40KT and brief rain. The strongest storms will focus over northeast and east- central NM where wind gusts >50KT, large hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes may occur thru 8pm. An outflow boundary from this activity will attempt to surge west across the central mt chain late tonight with gusty canyon winds for a few hours. The latest probability for gusts >35KT at KABQ is below 10% overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Pockets of critically low minimum humidity will favor central and northwest areas today and Wednesday, then northwest areas during the latter half of the week. Gulf moisture will continue to increase over eastern areas today, then to a lesser extent central and west Wednesday and Thursday with the help of thunderstorm outflows from the eastern storms. Some locally strong gap winds will be possible below canyons opening into the central valley from the east each evening today through Thursday. Until better Gulf moisture arrives, wetting footprints should continue to be pretty small west of the Rio Grande today, and west of the continental divide each day through the end of the work week. Besides the risk of new fire starts over western areas, the main fire weather concern for the remainder of this week will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 63 96 66 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 90 49 92 48 / 10 5 5 10 Cuba............................ 90 58 91 57 / 10 10 10 20 Gallup.......................... 92 55 92 56 / 10 5 10 10 El Morro........................ 87 55 88 56 / 10 10 20 10 Grants.......................... 89 58 91 58 / 20 10 20 30 Quemado......................... 88 58 90 59 / 10 10 20 10 Magdalena....................... 89 64 89 63 / 10 10 20 20 Datil........................... 87 60 87 59 / 5 10 20 20 Reserve......................... 95 58 97 59 / 5 5 5 10 Glenwood........................ 101 65 102 66 / 0 5 0 5 Chama........................... 84 52 85 51 / 10 10 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 89 63 86 59 / 20 20 50 40 Pecos........................... 91 58 87 56 / 10 10 50 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 53 84 54 / 40 20 50 50 Red River....................... 84 46 82 45 / 40 20 60 60 Angel Fire...................... 83 41 80 39 / 20 20 70 70 Taos............................ 88 53 89 52 / 20 10 50 50 Mora............................ 86 53 82 51 / 20 10 60 60 Espanola........................ 93 61 94 59 / 20 10 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 89 61 88 60 / 10 10 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 91 59 / 10 10 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 68 95 65 / 10 10 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 69 96 65 / 10 10 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 67 98 64 / 10 10 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 69 98 67 / 10 10 20 30 Belen........................... 99 66 99 65 / 5 10 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 98 68 98 66 / 10 10 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 98 65 99 63 / 5 10 20 30 Corrales........................ 100 68 99 66 / 10 10 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 99 66 99 65 / 5 10 20 30 Placitas........................ 94 67 93 63 / 10 10 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 98 68 97 66 / 10 10 30 30 Socorro......................... 100 72 102 70 / 0 5 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 62 88 59 / 10 10 30 50 Tijeras......................... 94 63 92 60 / 10 10 30 40 Edgewood........................ 95 60 92 57 / 20 10 30 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 58 93 55 / 10 10 30 40 Clines Corners.................. 90 60 87 56 / 20 10 40 40 Mountainair..................... 93 60 92 57 / 10 10 30 40 Gran Quivira.................... 92 60 91 58 / 5 10 30 30 Carrizozo....................... 97 68 96 66 / 5 5 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 91 62 87 58 / 20 5 30 10 Capulin......................... 86 55 82 54 / 60 60 80 50 Raton........................... 90 53 85 53 / 60 50 80 60 Springer........................ 93 55 86 54 / 50 30 70 60 Las Vegas....................... 89 56 85 55 / 20 20 70 60 Clayton......................... 95 63 85 61 / 70 60 30 40 Roy............................. 93 59 85 58 / 50 40 60 60 Conchas......................... 101 65 94 64 / 20 40 40 60 Santa Rosa...................... 99 65 91 62 / 10 30 30 60 Tucumcari....................... 102 66 93 63 / 20 40 20 40 Clovis.......................... 103 67 97 65 / 5 30 10 60 Portales........................ 105 68 97 66 / 0 20 10 60 Fort Sumner..................... 102 67 97 65 / 0 20 10 60 Roswell......................... 105 70 101 69 / 0 5 0 40 Picacho......................... 100 65 95 63 / 10 5 20 30 Elk............................. 96 64 94 61 / 5 5 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ236-238.