textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 418 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

- A few more record high temperatures are forecast today across western and central New Mexico and Tuesday across east central and southeast New Mexico.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today, Tuesday and Thursday due to strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Dry and breezy southwest winds have spread to nearly the entire area this afternoon with a few locales already approaching record highs as of 1pm. Cirrus will spread east over the area thru today and tonight as an upper level wave over the Great Basin pushes into CO. High terrain winds will remain elevated all night as the main core of stronger 700mb winds slides over NM. Min temps will be 15 to 25F above normal areawide. Stronger west to northwest winds will spread over NM Tuesday as the upper wave shifts off the Front Range and a Pacific cold front moves thru the state. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are likely along and east of the central mt chain. The latest NBM probs for peak gusts above 50 mph exceed 50% along the Sangre de Cristo Mts so localized Wind Advisory speeds may occur. The main focus will however be high fire danger over eastern NM. Temps will trend cooler over northern and western NM but remain near record highs over the south and east. A backdoor cold front is poised to move southwest into eastern NM Tuesday night and has trended stronger. A brief period of wind gusts near 45 mph may occur along the front with perhaps some blowing dust between Clovis and Tucumcari.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

The backdoor cold front Tuesday night will be draped along the central mt chain by Wednesday morning. Min temps will be much cooler but still above normal for early March. A shortwave ridge will crest over NM Wednesday with lighter winds, mild temps, and low humidity. High terrain winds will begin trending stronger Wednesday night ahead of the next upper level low. Widespread windy conditions are likely Thursday with south/southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Very low humidity, strong winds, and near record high temps again will create widespread high fire danger. Localized blowing dust is possible from source regions over southern and central NM. The NBM probs > 50 mph are above 60% in the high terrain so a Wind Advisory or two is possible, but no widespread high winds are expected at this time. It is worth mentioning that there is a non-zero chance that a couple storms may develop across southeast NM ahead of the approaching upper low. Models have been trending slightly farther northwest with low level moisture return into eastern Chaves, Lea, and southern Roosevelt counties.

A very dry Pacific cold front will slide thru the entire region Thursday night in the wake of the upper low passage. Temps will be colder but still above normal for early March. Max temps on Friday will be cooler as well and even slightly below normal over western NM but still above normal across eastern NM. Winds do trend lighter Friday but overall forecast confidence deteriorates during this time given the complex upper level pattern beginning to evolve over the southwest CONUS.

Model guidance continues to struggle with run-to-run consistency and intermodel consistency Saturday and Sunday. There is still moderate confidence on cooler temps with higher humidity but winds and any precip chances are still a big uncertainty.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 418 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with periods of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds. Gusty southwest winds will subside this evening and then increase out of the west-southwest again on Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Critical fire weather is ongoing in the Las Vegas area with locally critical conditions around Clines Clines and Gallup. Southwest winds will continue increasing thru late today with widespread elevated to locally critical expected. Southwest to west winds will trend even stronger Tuesday as an upper level wave passes north of NM. The Fire Weather Watch for eastern NM Tuesday will be upgraded tonight given minimum humidity falling into the single digits with 20-ft southwest wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Temps will trend colder Tuesday night in the wake of a Pacific front and backdoor cold front. A brief period of northerly gusts up to 45 mph may occur over eastern NM behind the backdoor cold front followed by cooler temps and lighter winds Wednesday. There is still higher confidence of widespread critical conditions Thursday with strong south/southwest winds, more single digit humidity, above normal temps, and 75th to 90th percentile mixing heights for early March. Another Fire Weather Watch is a near certainty for many areas where ERC values exceed the 50th percentile (central and eastern NM). A stronger backdoor cold front is expected to move south into eastern NM Thursday night with cooler temps and slightly higher humidity Friday. Forecast confidence beyond Friday remains very low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 38 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 30 60 22 61 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 36 61 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 29 63 21 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 61 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 67 23 67 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 36 66 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 71 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 37 66 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 72 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 76 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 53 22 55 / 5 5 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 42 62 34 61 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 40 63 29 62 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 58 28 59 / 0 5 10 0 Red River....................... 30 53 20 53 / 0 5 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 30 55 18 55 / 0 0 20 5 Taos............................ 34 62 22 63 / 0 0 10 0 Mora............................ 39 63 27 63 / 0 0 10 0 Espanola........................ 40 70 28 69 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 64 33 63 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 66 32 65 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 70 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 72 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 75 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 72 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 77 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 73 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 42 75 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 45 73 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 76 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 68 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 45 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 46 80 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 65 34 62 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 42 68 34 65 / 0 0 5 0 Edgewood........................ 41 69 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 69 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 65 31 63 / 0 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 42 69 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 71 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 75 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 68 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 37 65 27 61 / 0 10 20 0 Raton........................... 36 68 26 65 / 0 10 20 0 Springer........................ 36 71 28 68 / 0 0 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 41 68 28 64 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 44 74 34 65 / 0 0 20 0 Roy............................. 41 73 32 65 / 0 0 10 0 Conchas......................... 44 80 36 74 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 43 76 36 70 / 0 0 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 45 82 35 72 / 0 0 10 0 Clovis.......................... 47 83 37 72 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 45 84 37 73 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 82 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 87 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 81 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 78 37 73 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ123-125.