textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area today, creating strong north winds across eastern NM and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys by this evening.

- The first freeze of the season is forecast late tonight into Friday morning for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Even colder conditions are forecast Friday night.

- Rain chances return Monday and continue through much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A strong backdoor cold front will push southwestward across the state this afternoon and evening as a large area of high pressure builds south along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will develop over the Desert Southwest before traversing back toward the Baja Peninsula. The resulting tightening pressure gradient will produce a significant easterly wind event across much of the region that will last through the day on Friday. Winds have already started increasing across northeastern portions of New Mexico and will continue to spread into the central mountain ranges, Rio Grande Valley, and eastern slopes of the high terrain this evening. Strong to potentially damaging gusts are expected in the usual canyon and gap wind corridors along and immediately west of the central mountain chain, as well as near the mouths of canyons and across portions of the South Central Highlands and upper Tularosa Valley. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for those locations.

A much colder airmass will accompany this boundary, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far for much of the region. Temperatures will fall sharply tonight, and a Freeze Warning has been issued for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Strong easterly winds will continue through Friday, especially along and west of the central mountain ranges. Afternoon highs on Friday will range from the low 50s to low 60s, roughly 5-20 degrees below average! Additional freezing temperatures are becoming increasingly likely Friday night into Saturday morning as winds begin to ease up and skies remain clear, key conditions for efficient radiational cooling. A widespread Freeze Watch was issued for much of the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Dry conditions will prevail Saturday as the aforementioned upper low propagates toward the Baja Peninsula and ridging develops over the Southwest. High temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year through the weekend. By Saturday evening into Sunday, the upper low begins to weaken and may begin to lift to the the northeast, allowing for some moisture to return. Overall forcing is minimal, so precipitation changes are on the lower side. However, the greatest chances will be focused over western New Mexico where the low's eventual track and the greatest moisture advection will likely set up.

Once we move into early next week, attention turns to a strong Pacific low pressure system that will dig across the West Coast before traversing inland. Increasing moisture ahead of this system should support a gradual return of precipitation chances early to midweek. Forecast timing and placement of this system remains uncertain, but current guidance suggests Thursday/Friday could be the most favorable day for more widespread precipitation. Details will continue to be refined the closer we get to the event. Cooler temperatures are still expected to persist, and snow will be possible across the highest peaks if temperatures and eventual system track remain favorable.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

No significant changes this TAF period. VFR conditions will persist through the cycle. A strong backdoor front will progress from northeast to the southwest this afternoon and into the evening hours. This boundary will bring a wind shift and gusty conditions to central and eastern NM. To note, a strong east canyon wind will develop early this evening at KABQ behind the boundary and result in gusts of at least 40 knots but as high as 50 knots. An Airport Weather Warning will be required. Gusty winds will continue overnight and into the morning on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next week. A strong backdoor front will push southwestward across the state this afternoon and evening, bringing windy conditions and notably colder temperatures. Sustained winds will range roughly between 25-35 mph with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph. As a result of yesterday's cold front and the back door front today, significantly drier air is in the cards through Saturday, with minimum RH ranging from the teens to 20s. Humidity will be back on the upswing Sunday into Monday as a weak Pacific low approaches from the southwest and advects tropical moisture to the region, but with low chances for wetting precipitation. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late next week with higher moisture content and good chances for wetting precipitation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 39 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 65 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 34 64 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 38 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 35 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 45 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 29 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 56 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 48 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 20 51 12 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 28 59 22 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 28 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 37 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 44 66 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 56 30 59 / 0 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 35 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 59 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 35 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 50 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 55 22 66 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 58 20 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 57 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 55 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 57 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 62 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 42 56 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 58 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 53 30 58 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ227-228-230-231.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ222-223- 228>230.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-220-224-225.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ235-236.