textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico over the next week as several backdoor cold fronts press through the area. Warmest conditions are expected today and Sunday, while the coldest are expected Saturday.

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next seven days.

UPDATE

Issued at 1050 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

A potent cold front currently in the high plains of Kansas/Colorado is surging southward down the eastern plains much stronger than previously forecast so winds were increased significantly and patchy blowing dust was added to the forecast for tonight based on recent observations in SE Colorado. A Wind Advisory was added for much of the eastern plains of New Mexico, although there is a low chance of gusts up to 65 mph in northeastern NM with the initial frontal passage.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 102 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

West to northwest upper level flow remains over the area today and through much of the next several days. For the rest of today, west winds along and south of the I-40 corridor east of Clines Corners is very likely to see gusts around 30-35mph. This is in response to the development of a surface trough in northeast NM/southeast CO correlating to a tightening surface pressure gradient along those areas. These downsloping west winds also bring well above average temperatures to much of the state, especially eastern NM, where a few daily record high temperatures may be broken before the sun sets tonight. After the surface trough departs to the east this afternoon and evening, in its wake comes the first of several backdoor cold fronts throughout the next week. 20-25mph gusts are quite likely as this front pushes through eastern NM throughout tonight and early Friday morning. It will also bring about an abrupt drop in temperatures, with most eastern NM locations dropping 20F from today's high temperature value to tomorrow's. The front is likely to not make it through the central mountain chain, so central and western locations will not notice much change outside of a slight dip in temperature. Skies will almost certainly remain mainly clear with only a wisp of a cloud here and there.

Outside of a drop in temperatures, not much change is expected for most of Friday. Lighter winds are very likely as compared to the breezy east-central NM winds of Thursday. A large scale low pressure system across the Midwest/Great Lakes region begins to rapidly develop and deepen, and as a result, it develops and sends an additional backdoor cold front to enter eastern NM late Friday into Saturday morning. With this front, a band of mid-level moisture may be set up over northeast NM as this front passes through. The 12z NAM run depicts this well with the chance of snow shower generation. The NAM does seems to be bullish on the precipitation, though other deterministic models have this setup of mid to low level moisture coinciding with the frontal passage. For now, have added the mention of flurries to northeast NM late Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Snow flurries may stick around through Saturday morning, though chances drop off as the front continues to push through. Temperatures on Saturday drop into the 30s and low 40s across eastern NM after the frontal passage. A few breezes are also likely behind the front, which may drop apparent temperatures into the single digits Saturday morning, and keep it in the 20s through the day. This shouldn't necessitate any cold weather hazards, though it will still be a chilly morning. While the sharp temperature drop won't reach west of the central mountains, an additional upper level front pushes through Saturday and brings breezy north winds across the western higher terrain.

Northwest flow wins out going into Sunday, which works to develop another eastern NM surface trough with breezy west winds. As is the case with west winds, temperatures rebound significantly in eastern NM, with highs in the 50s and 60s. As one colleague put it, the temperatures will be like a yo-yo across eastern NM through the next week, while central and western NM remain rather stagnant. Our third backdoor front looks to enter eastern NM on Monday, once again lowering temperatures.

The upper level flow looks to become more zonal moving into the middle of next week, which work to decrease the chances for additional backdoor fronts. However, it would not be surprising to see our 4th front appear in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. With a weak zonal pattern, winds are likely to remain rather light by New Mexico standards, and temperatures should be near to above average (50s and 60s).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

The cold frontal passage in the eastern plains of New Mexico is coming in much stronger than previously forecast, with wind gusts of 20 to 45 kts likely between 07Z and 15Z tomorrow morning. In addition, LLWS will occur for a few hours in eastern NM tonight. Blowing dust along the leading edge of the front may create brief MVFR conditions in northeast and eastern NM tonight. A light to moderate northwest to north breeze will prevail in western and central areas tomorrow, with winds moving around to the south in eastern NM. Mostly clear skies will continue to prevail through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Breezy conditions continue across east-central New Mexico this afternoon. Several backdoor cold fronts are expected to enter eastern NM multiple times through the next week, fluctuating the temperature across the region. Some northerly breezes in western NM are likely Saturday, mainly across the higher terrain. Otherwise, light breezes are expected throughout the state this upcoming week. Ventilation rates become good behind backdoor fronts and on breezy days such as Saturday, but will be poor elsewhere with widespread light winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 22 50 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 15 48 11 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 20 47 19 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 16 51 16 47 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 50 21 45 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 19 53 17 49 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 21 50 20 46 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 30 55 28 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 28 51 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 22 61 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 25 68 24 63 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 43 11 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 27 47 23 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 24 48 17 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 22 42 16 36 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 18 34 11 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 10 40 5 33 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 14 46 10 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 22 49 14 40 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 21 54 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 28 47 22 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 49 21 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 32 53 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 28 56 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 26 58 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 57 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 22 57 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 57 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 22 57 21 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 58 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 24 57 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 29 52 29 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 57 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 29 61 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 28 48 26 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 49 27 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 25 51 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 19 53 16 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 24 47 18 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 26 52 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 25 53 21 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 29 57 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 32 52 27 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 15 39 9 29 / 0 0 10 5 Raton........................... 15 44 10 34 / 0 0 10 5 Springer........................ 18 47 12 37 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 22 47 14 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 25 42 17 33 / 0 0 20 10 Roy............................. 22 43 15 35 / 0 0 10 5 Conchas......................... 25 50 18 42 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 25 48 19 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 25 49 18 41 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 28 48 19 40 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 28 49 19 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 49 19 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 32 52 22 47 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 32 52 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 30 54 22 52 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST Friday for NMZ227-228-230-231- 234>236.