textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds gusting 35 to 50 mph will impact travel for high profile vehicles across eastern NM Tuesday afternoon.

- Valley rain and high mountain snow bring minor travel impacts to northwestern NM Tuesday and Tuesday night, expanding across the northern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Late season hard freeze will pose a risk to newly budding places and sensitive vegetation over northern valley areas Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

A 560dm H5 low entering SoCal this morning with a 110kt speed max and associated deep tap of subtropical moisture will continue moving east into the southwest CONUS today. The 12Z NAEFS projected PWATs near +4 standard deviations above climo entering southern AZ this morning. Radar trends show a large area of rain over south-central AZ moving quickly northeast on the eastern flank of the upper level speed max. Top-down moistening over NM will give way to increasing coverage of light rain and rain showers thru this morning. Guidance has come into better agreement with keeping a closed low near 560dm just west of Flagstaff at 6pm today. Improving jet dynamics moving into western NM ahead of the low with strong moisture advection, SBCAPE near 400 J/kg, and lifted indices to -2C, will allow showers and storms to increase in coverage during the afternoon. Storms will be moving northeast near 35 mph with locally strong winds and small hail possible. The stronger winds aloft will also help to generate strong southwest winds over the southern high terrain today. 00Z MOS guidance trended a tad weaker in this area but the latest REFS is still showing gusts >50 mph over the Ruidoso area (Wind Advisory remains in effect).

The focus then shifts to a northern stream upper level wave diving south into western CO tonight and Wednesday. The evolution of the upper level pattern will be complex and there is still uncertainty amongst model guidance on how this will happen. There are two model camps emerging. The first shows a more progressive northern stream wave moving southeast in the wake of the initial Pacific low thru Wednesday evening. The second group carves out a sharper wave over northern NM Wednesday night before exiting eastern NM on Thursday morning. The northern stream wave is cold for early May with 700mb temps falling to between -3 and -6C over northern NM. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front draped over northeast NM will move southwest toward the central mt chain Wednesday while a Pacific cold front enters northwest NM. Valley rain and mountain snow will develop across northern NM Wednesday as the upper level storm system moves southeast. The residence time and sharpness of the upper wave will dictate how much snow falls in the higher terrain and northeast NM. At this time, confidence is moderate to high for at least 3 to 6" of snow above 7,500 ft Wednesday and Wednesday night. The REFS and NBM snow probs >4" are already >60%. The high- end scenario (90th percentile) is for 5 to 10", including accumulating snowfall along I-25 at Raton Pass and U.S. 64/87 into Colfax and Union counties. A Winter Wx Advisory will be issued if trends continue. There is also a moderate chance that a sharp line of showers and storms moves south along the Pacific cold front over northwest NM and into the ABQ/SAF metro areas late Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Strong cold advection in the wake of the departing storm system Wednesday night will lead to a widespread freeze across much of northern NM. Freeze Watches may be warranted for the area from Raton to Las Vegas, Clayton, Santa Rosa, Santa Fe, and Farmington.

Thursday will feature warmer temps with lighter winds and gradual clearing. The remainder of the extended forecast is dominated by northwest flow aloft as a large upper level ridge builds along the West Coast. Temps Friday will trend even warmer with most areas around 5F above normal. Stronger northwest flow Saturday may lead to widespread breezy winds with low humidity and very warm temps. An upper level wave moving southeast from the northern Rockies Sunday may force a strong backdoor cold front into eastern NM. There are increasing chances for some storms along and east of the central mt chain while the west remains warm and dry.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Cigs are lowering across western NM late this evening ahead of a rich tap of moisture and associated rain showers. There are high chances for MVFR cigs and lcl IFR over west-central and southwest NM thru sunrise, including KGUP. Icing, mt obscuration, and turb will accompany this area of rain. Farther east, LLWS and mt waves continue along and east of the central mt chain. The focus will shift to TSRA Tuesday afternoon as a Pacific storm system shifts east into NM. Storm motion will be toward the east-northeast around 30KT. The greatest chance for storms will be over the northwest quarter of NM, including KFMN, KAEG and KSAF from 2pm to 7pm. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front draped over northeast NM will create a northeast wind shift with periods of MVFR cigs thru Tuesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for the next 7 days. A moist Pacific storm system approaching from the west will spread showers & storms with wetting rainfall into western NM this morning. Many areas along and west of the central mt chain have high chances to pick up between 0.10" and 0.20" with locally higher amounts over 0.40" thru tonight. A colder storm system will dive south from CO Wednesday with valley rain and mountain snow spreading across northern NM. Snowfall amounts of 3-6" are expected in the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps the Raton Ridge. Snow levels may fall to near 6,000' across northeast NM on Wednesday night as a strong cold front surges south thru the area. A warming trend is still expected Thursday thru the weekend as an upper level ridge builds along the West Coast. Northwest winds may become strong enough Saturday with subcritical humidity to produce localized areas of critical fire weather. Another backdoor cold front may slide into eastern NM Sunday with higher chances for showers & storms east of the central mt chain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 43 62 32 / 30 40 40 5 Dulce........................... 62 31 57 19 / 30 60 70 20 Cuba............................ 60 33 59 25 / 70 50 60 20 Gallup.......................... 60 31 62 23 / 70 30 50 10 El Morro........................ 57 32 60 28 / 70 30 40 20 Grants.......................... 62 32 63 25 / 60 20 40 20 Quemado......................... 61 31 62 30 / 60 20 20 20 Magdalena....................... 65 38 66 38 / 50 10 10 20 Datil........................... 60 33 61 33 / 60 10 20 20 Reserve......................... 65 29 69 31 / 60 10 10 10 Glenwood........................ 69 33 73 36 / 60 10 5 10 Chama........................... 57 29 49 20 / 40 70 80 30 Los Alamos...................... 61 39 59 34 / 50 60 60 30 Pecos........................... 62 33 61 28 / 50 50 60 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 35 52 24 / 30 60 80 50 Red River....................... 52 29 42 17 / 40 70 90 60 Angel Fire...................... 57 25 49 15 / 40 60 90 70 Taos............................ 64 32 57 20 / 30 50 70 50 Mora............................ 63 32 58 24 / 40 40 80 70 Espanola........................ 68 38 65 33 / 40 50 50 40 Santa Fe........................ 62 38 61 33 / 50 50 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 37 65 32 / 40 50 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 43 68 39 / 60 40 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 41 70 37 / 50 30 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 40 73 36 / 50 30 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 43 70 38 / 50 40 30 20 Belen........................... 70 38 74 35 / 50 20 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 69 42 71 37 / 50 40 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 70 37 73 33 / 50 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 70 42 72 38 / 50 40 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 70 39 73 36 / 50 30 20 20 Placitas........................ 64 43 66 38 / 50 40 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 69 43 70 38 / 50 40 30 20 Socorro......................... 75 43 76 42 / 40 10 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 38 62 33 / 50 40 30 30 Tijeras......................... 62 38 64 33 / 60 40 30 30 Edgewood........................ 64 35 65 29 / 50 40 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 33 67 25 / 50 30 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 62 35 61 29 / 30 20 50 40 Mountainair..................... 65 35 66 31 / 50 20 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 65 37 65 32 / 40 20 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 68 44 69 40 / 30 10 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 60 41 62 35 / 20 5 5 5 Capulin......................... 59 30 39 19 / 50 80 90 60 Raton........................... 66 33 47 20 / 50 70 90 60 Springer........................ 69 35 55 23 / 30 50 90 60 Las Vegas....................... 65 35 59 26 / 30 30 70 70 Clayton......................... 61 35 44 28 / 40 70 70 60 Roy............................. 68 36 56 27 / 30 30 70 60 Conchas......................... 77 43 71 34 / 20 20 40 70 Santa Rosa...................... 73 43 70 33 / 10 10 20 50 Tucumcari....................... 78 43 70 36 / 10 20 20 60 Clovis.......................... 80 47 74 37 / 5 5 10 20 Portales........................ 81 48 78 36 / 5 5 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 78 45 76 36 / 10 5 10 30 Roswell......................... 80 50 79 42 / 5 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 73 45 73 36 / 10 0 5 5 Elk............................. 70 43 70 33 / 5 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240.