textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Sunday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Storms so far today have been mostly concentrated over the western and northern high terrain with spatially small cells moving very slowly as the stout 598 decameter high settles over NM. GOES total precipitable water values are showing lowest values of 0.6 to 0.8 inch over the Sangre de Cristos which was modeled quite well yesterday. Elsewhere readings rise to 0.8 to 1.1 inch with the highest values found in the climatologically expected eastern plains. Even with these PWATs, the surface dewpoints in the 40's and low 50's and hot temperatures in the 80's, 90's, and low 100's are creating some large dewpoint depressions that are impeding rainfall efficiency. The high is also producing sluggish steering flow that is making it hard for cells to move off of the high terrain. The catch-22 for many nearby lower elevations is that they will be dependent on stronger nearby high terrain storms that can create sufficient mesoscale cold pools and outflow boundaries moving into lower elevations before new lower elevation storms can be regenerated through the evening. Hot temperatures are also underway, and the Heat Advisory will continue for Chaves and Quay counties through 8 PM MDT. Storms are modeled to largely dissipate before midnight with a few less vigorous showers surviving into the early morning hours.

Another Heat Advisory might be needed for Sunday. Currently, this updated forecast only has Roswell meeting criteria (105 F), but a few locations are encroaching upon record high temperatures which might be justification for expansion. A subtle perturbation still looks to move eastward over the central Rockies in CO with subsequent storms sending outflow and perhaps additional storms into northern NM late Sunday. Otherwise, western high terrain areas will remain the favored area for storm development Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The upper high is advertised to settle more concentrically over NM into Monday with heights reducing a decameter or two, down to 596-597 at 500 mb. Southeasterly return flow at the surface will meet up with a weak, moist backdoor front on Monday with convergence and upslope flow aligning over northeastern NM where storms would be focused. The east southeast surface winds coupled with west northwesterly winds aloft could yield sufficient directional shear for a strong to severe storm or two late Monday afternoon into the evening. More sparse storms will continue developing along and near the Continental Divide Monday, and a near-persistence temperature forecast will keep heat impacts front and center for many NM zones.

A reinforcing backdoor boundary could slide back into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and far northeastern NM with perhaps another perturbation aloft along the CO front range on Tuesday. The NAM is even more invasive with this backdoor boundary, carrying it much farther southward into the NM plains. Regardless of exact location, this boundary will once again help ignite storm development while providing enough directional shear for a few more strong to severe cells Tuesday. By this time, recycling of available moisture would be more difficult for western zones, and less coverage is possible there.

Tuesday's convection will help govern the placement of the moist, unstable plains airmass going into the day Wednesday. For now, it is modeled to be draped over northeast to east central NM and possibly toward the high terrain of Lincoln county which would lead to farther southward expansion of storms Wednesday afternoon.

Into Thursday, the upper high will be settling into southwestern NM or eastern AZ. Surface winds look to veer more southeasterly or southerly with areas along and east of the central mountain chain appearing to be the best poised for scattered storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Moisture and instability would be then be tempered some into Friday with storms tending to stay more focused over and near the high terrain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Less overall shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast today with storms tending to be focused over the western and northern high terrain early in the afternoon before struggling to fill into nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. Storms will mostly come to an end before midnight with just a few stray showers lingering into the early morning Sunday. A similar thunderstorm pattern will unfold again on Sunday. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will cause aircraft performance to deteriorate for some.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The monsoon high will be stronger than normal for the next several days, keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. The high will also limit storms for the rest of the weekend, generally keeping cells confined to northern and western NM. This regime will keep daily rounds of low afternoon humidity (12-20%) in the forecast through the weekend. Storms will then trend up in northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before expanding into more of the eastern half of the state on Wednesday as weak, but moist backdoor fronts move in. With high temperatures only getting reduced a couple to a few degrees in eastern zones, readings will still stay above normal area-wide through late next week. Humidity will recover better in areas impacted by the backdoor fronts (morning recoveries of 60-80%), but elsewhere humidity will only rebound to 40-60% in the mornings. Storms could then reduce in number and coverage again by late in the upcoming work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 94 64 95 / 20 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 52 90 51 91 / 30 30 20 10 Cuba............................ 59 88 60 91 / 20 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 90 57 90 / 30 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 56 85 55 86 / 40 40 30 20 Grants.......................... 58 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 86 58 87 / 20 40 20 20 Magdalena....................... 63 88 63 89 / 20 20 10 20 Datil........................... 58 85 58 86 / 20 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 58 93 57 93 / 20 30 10 20 Glenwood........................ 63 98 64 98 / 20 20 10 20 Chama........................... 53 83 52 85 / 30 40 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 86 63 87 / 20 40 40 20 Pecos........................... 59 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 84 56 85 / 30 60 30 30 Red River....................... 45 77 46 79 / 30 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 42 81 38 82 / 20 30 30 50 Taos............................ 57 88 56 89 / 20 40 20 20 Mora............................ 55 86 55 86 / 30 30 30 50 Espanola........................ 60 93 61 94 / 20 30 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 63 89 63 91 / 20 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 92 62 94 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 69 96 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 95 70 97 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 97 64 98 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 68 97 / 20 10 20 5 Belen........................... 67 98 67 99 / 10 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 96 67 98 / 20 5 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 65 97 64 98 / 20 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 68 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 97 66 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 93 67 94 / 20 5 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 95 68 97 / 20 5 20 5 Socorro......................... 70 99 70 99 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 64 90 / 20 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 64 90 64 92 / 20 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 60 90 61 92 / 20 5 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 92 57 94 / 20 5 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 61 89 61 91 / 20 5 10 10 Mountainair..................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 62 92 / 10 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 68 96 / 10 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 87 60 89 / 10 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 58 88 56 88 / 20 50 40 50 Raton........................... 58 91 55 92 / 20 50 30 60 Springer........................ 58 94 56 94 / 30 40 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 90 58 90 / 20 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 67 97 66 97 / 10 30 40 30 Roy............................. 63 95 61 94 / 20 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 70 102 69 101 / 10 5 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 103 71 103 / 5 0 10 5 Clovis.......................... 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 70 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 5 0 5 Elk............................. 62 93 63 95 / 5 5 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-238.