textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain each afternoon through Thursday may produce erratic wind gusts with localized moderate rainfall amounts.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

- Light precipitation will expand from western New Mexico to the central NM over the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A weak shortwave remains situated over New Mexico, being accompanied by a 50-60kt 250mb jet oriented from northwest to southeast across southwest NM. The synoptic lift from this system, albeit weak, produced isolated showers and thunderstorms across the high terrain yesterday afternoon, with a few gauges up in the Jemez and Tusas Mountains measuring up to 0.3". Very similar conditions look to set up on Wednesday, with CAMs being a bit more aggressive with convective activity than they have been in the last few days. The messaging remains the same, with development likely over the northern and western high terrain during the afternoon hours, with the primary threat being gusty and erratic wind gusts from showers and storms. While the most likely rainfall amounts remain under 0.1" for most areas, a few pockets of rainfall amounts up to 0.5-1" cannot be ruled out, especially if storms remain stationary over one location. Flooding is not likely given the low confidence and isolated nature of these higher amounts, but continue to remain aware if you observe a storm nearby. Temperatures remain near to about 10F above average today, with high 70s to low 80s in lower elevation areas, and upper 60s to lower 70s in high terrain locations.

For Thursday, the axis of the 250mb shortwave moves further into TX, leaving NM in a primary region of subsidence, leading to a downtick in the expected shower and storm coverage. However, the high terrain areas across the southern part of the forecast area may still be able to receive some synoptic lift, allowing for isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms to develop. The same primary threats remain in gusty winds and the low chance for rainfall over 0.5". Of note, the NAM has significantly backed off on the coverage of rainfall for Thursday compared to its runs yesterday, aligning back with model consensus. With pressure heights lowering just a touch Thursday, temperatures will fall a few degrees, but still remain similar to Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Friday into Saturday morning sees little change from one another, with low chances for isolated showers and storms across the high terrain. Temperatures continue a slow decline, but are still forecast to remain near average for early/mid October. Getting further through Saturday is when we begin to see a pattern change. A deep upper level low is expected to develop over the Pacific Northwest, while the remnants of Hurricane Rachel begin to shift towards the Desert Southwest after being sheared apart by a previous shortwave. Current model and ensemble guidance favor the PNW trough digging down the coast of CA and ejecting the moisture from Rachel primarily into AZ. With this favored advection of moisture, the most likely scenario are isolated to scattered showers developing Saturday night across western NM, transitioning to scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening. Currently, during this timeframe (Saturday-Sunday), rainfall amounts look to remain rather light with amounts up to 0.5", primarily across western NM. There will likely be an orographic component to the rainfall, so areas close to terrain may see locally heavier amounts. Additionally, the track of this initial surge of moisture may fluctuate, which would affect the current forecast amounts.

The second player, with the potential for higher impact, in this setup is another potential tropical system interacting with the low pressure already in place across southern CA (this potential system is currently designated with a 90% chance of cyclone formation from the NHC). While there is lower confidence in what will occur with this second push, both the GFS and ECMWF show a surge of moisture advecting into NM beginning Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This scenario would bring about more widespread rain and thunderstorms across the region. It is worth mentioning that deterministic models have had poor run-to-run consistency, and ensemble cluster analysis is split on whether or not the potential tropical moisture is advected into NM or not. These details will become clearer as we get towards this weekend and into next week. Folks should continue to check the forecast as this system begins to approach.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are expected to throughout the TAF period. Primary aviation hazard today will be gusty and erratic winds from showers and storms developing across the northern and western high terrain, primarily 18z. Confidence was high enough for winds affecting KFMN and KGUP this afternoon that PROB30 groups were introduced. Gusty winds are likely to subside by 02-03z this evening. Otherwise, calm conditions remain with light winds and mid to high level clouds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next several days. Outside of locally gusty winds in afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, winds will remain light. Winds increase across northeast NM Friday (with gusts up to 35mph), and then gradually areawide through the weekend. Precipitation chances return to western NM Saturday night through Sunday, though current forecast rain amounts are light. Heavier precipitation may return to the state in the early part of next week, but there is high uncertainty within the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 79 53 79 53 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 39 77 40 / 10 20 10 5 Cuba............................ 75 47 73 46 / 5 5 10 5 Gallup.......................... 76 46 77 46 / 20 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 73 45 72 44 / 20 0 10 5 Grants.......................... 76 47 74 45 / 5 0 5 5 Quemado......................... 75 46 74 46 / 10 5 10 5 Magdalena....................... 74 51 71 50 / 0 0 10 5 Datil........................... 72 46 70 45 / 5 0 10 5 Reserve......................... 82 47 79 46 / 10 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 86 53 83 52 / 20 10 20 10 Chama........................... 72 42 70 42 / 30 20 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 74 50 71 48 / 5 5 10 5 Pecos........................... 76 45 73 44 / 0 0 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 46 72 45 / 10 10 10 5 Red River....................... 70 33 70 33 / 10 10 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 69 30 69 28 / 5 10 20 10 Taos............................ 76 42 74 42 / 5 5 10 5 Mora............................ 73 44 71 41 / 5 5 10 5 Espanola........................ 80 48 77 47 / 5 5 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 76 48 73 48 / 0 0 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 48 75 48 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 55 79 55 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 54 79 54 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 53 81 54 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 54 79 54 / 0 0 5 0 Belen........................... 82 52 80 53 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 53 81 53 / 0 0 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 83 51 81 52 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 84 52 81 52 / 0 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 53 80 53 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 79 53 77 53 / 0 0 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 83 53 80 53 / 0 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 83 55 80 55 / 0 0 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 48 73 48 / 0 0 10 5 Tijeras......................... 78 47 77 47 / 0 0 10 5 Edgewood........................ 77 47 75 46 / 0 0 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 46 75 46 / 0 0 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 48 72 48 / 0 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 76 47 73 47 / 0 0 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 76 48 72 48 / 0 0 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 79 54 75 52 / 5 0 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 72 49 68 46 / 10 5 20 10 Capulin......................... 75 48 73 48 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 80 47 77 46 / 5 5 5 0 Springer........................ 81 45 77 44 / 0 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 75 45 72 45 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 81 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 78 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 79 53 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 80 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 57 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 54 77 52 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 78 52 75 48 / 5 0 10 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.