textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the continental divide this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing lightning, hail, gusty winds, and blowing dust. There will be a marginal risk of severe storms over central and eastern areas. - Ruidoso area burn scars have a low to moderate risk of flash flooding this afternoon and evening. - Hot, dry, and breezy-to-windy conditions that increase the risk of rapid fire spread across the northwest plateau Tuesday, will expand to more of Western and central New Mexico Wednesday.

- Hazardous heat is forecast in the central valley Wednesday, and also across the eastern plains, as high temperatures vary from 99 to 106 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

With subtropical moisture in place and an upper level trough clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the area along and east of the continental divide this afternoon and evening, except for numerous cells over and just east of the Sangre de Cristo and south central mountains. Storm motion will mostly be toward the southeast around 25-35 mph. With 0-6 KM bulk shear around 25-40 KT and CAPE around 800-1600 J/KG this afternoon, a few severe storms will develop across eastern areas, and potentially as far west as the central valley. In addition, PWATS varying around 0.75" in the central valley to as much as 1.25" on the eastern plains will enable storms to produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. High res models depict some of the heaviest rainfall today from storms along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. At this time, they show the strongest storms developing just east and southeast of the Ruidoso-area burn scars, and moving away from the scars. However, residents will need to remain vigilant and watch out for flash flooding, because high res models don't always nail the precise location of heavy rainfall, and they are indicating that storms in the Ruidoso area will be capable of producing a quick inch of rainfall today; potentially on the burn scars.

Hot, dry, and windy conditions are forecast for NM Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad ridge of high pressure builds over the west coast and an upper level trough tracking southeastward out of the northern Rockies strengthens northwest flow aloft over NM. After high temperatures today vary from near 30-year averages over western areas and as much as 15 degrees below average in the east, readings will climb around 5 to 24 degrees Tuesday into Wednesday. Hazardous heat will develop Wednesday central and east, when highs on the plains will vary from 99-106 F, and readings in the middle and lower Rio Grande valley reach the low 100s. Meanwhile, humidities will plummet into the single digits over northwest areas Tuesday, then almost areawide Wednesday. Gusts to 40 mph over the northwest plateau Tuesday will create critical fire weather conditions there. The 40 mph wind gusts will spread to more of western NM Wednesday, and as far east as the central highlands producing greater coverage of critical fire weather conditions.

Some models depict isolated showers and thunderstorm over the southern tier of mountains Tuesday and Wednesday, and over parts of the far eastern plains, but confidence is low that any substantial rainfall will occur.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast during the latter half of the week and the coming weekend. A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over NM during the latter half of the work week, while an upper level trough tracks inland over the west coast drawing enough subtropical moisture northward over NM for thunderstorms to increase in coverage starting Thursday. In addition, a somewhat moist backdoor cold front that reaches as far west as the central mountain chain Wednesday night will probably also increase thunderstorm chances along and east of the central mountain chain starting Thursday. Storms will increase in coverage on Friday as the upper trough makes more progress over the Desert Southwest, while further enhancing southeasterly low- level return flow. On Saturday, a significant downtick in thunderstorm coverage is expected at least in the west, and maybe also in the east depending on how much progress the upper trough makes crossing the Rocky Mountain states. Additional drying is likely Sunday across most of the forecast area as a second, drier upper level trough moves inland over the western US. An exception will be the northeast corner of NM on Sunday, where the upper trough may interact with moisture from a backdoor front to produce showers and thunderstorms. After 10-22 degrees of cooling across eastern NM Thursday, and a few degrees of cooling over central and western areas on Friday, readings will rebound in the coming weekend when highs will vary from near average to as much as 6 degrees above average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain and eastern plains for the remainder of tonight. Low clouds and patchy fog will also contribute to creating areas of MVFR and IFR conditions tonight through mid- morning Monday east of the central mountain chain. Flight categories will improve from west to east across the eastern plains late Monday morning. Monday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and east of the continental divide, except for more numerous cells along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Storm motion will be toward the southeast at speeds around 20-30 KT. A few storms may turn severe Monday afternoon and early evening over central and eastern areas by producing large hail and damaging winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Erratic thunderstorm outflow potentially as strong as 60 mph will return this afternoon and evening along and east of the continental divide. Some storms along the continental divide, including Mount Taylor, will produce gusty winds and dry lightning with little or no rainfall this afternoon.

With this forecast package we are issuing a Fire Weather Watch for the Northwest Plateau on Tuesday and Wednesday, and also on Wednesday for the North Central and West Central Mountains, Middle Rio Grande Valley, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, and Central Highlands. RFTIs in these areas will vary mostly from 4-7 with ERCs mostly in the 80-90th percentile. Between now and Wednesday, we will see how ERC's respond to rain that fell along the east slopes of the western mountains on Sunday, and that may fall there and along the east slopes of the central mountains today. With the ongoing severe and extreme drought conditions, the relatively localized wetting rainfall early this week probably won't be enough to enable ERCs to recover much.

Thursday and Friday, gusty virga showers and mostly dry storms should return to northwest areas, west central areas, and the central valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 92 55 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 41 91 44 / 20 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 85 52 88 55 / 20 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 87 50 91 53 / 10 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 84 52 88 55 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 88 52 92 57 / 10 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 85 55 88 58 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 83 59 89 64 / 40 10 0 0 Datil........................... 82 57 87 61 / 20 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 49 94 50 / 30 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 94 54 97 55 / 40 10 5 0 Chama........................... 78 43 84 45 / 30 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 57 86 61 / 40 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 82 50 88 55 / 40 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 50 84 53 / 70 10 0 0 Red River....................... 68 42 76 46 / 70 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 73 39 80 44 / 60 10 0 0 Taos............................ 79 46 87 49 / 60 10 0 0 Mora............................ 78 48 86 54 / 40 5 5 0 Espanola........................ 86 54 94 55 / 40 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 82 56 88 60 / 40 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 53 91 56 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 64 95 67 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 60 97 63 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 60 99 62 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 61 97 64 / 20 5 0 0 Belen........................... 92 58 99 60 / 20 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 92 60 97 63 / 20 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 92 57 98 59 / 20 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 93 61 98 63 / 20 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 92 58 98 61 / 20 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 61 93 65 / 20 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 91 61 97 63 / 20 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 93 64 99 68 / 30 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 57 90 61 / 20 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 85 57 91 60 / 20 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 86 53 92 59 / 20 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 50 93 55 / 20 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 81 53 88 58 / 20 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 86 54 92 58 / 20 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 83 55 91 59 / 20 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 85 61 93 65 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 78 56 86 61 / 40 20 5 0 Capulin......................... 72 47 82 51 / 70 20 10 0 Raton........................... 76 47 89 50 / 50 10 5 0 Springer........................ 77 49 90 51 / 60 10 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 78 50 89 54 / 50 10 10 0 Clayton......................... 75 54 87 60 / 40 20 20 0 Roy............................. 75 51 87 55 / 50 30 10 0 Conchas......................... 82 56 95 59 / 40 30 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 55 92 59 / 40 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 82 58 94 63 / 30 40 10 0 Clovis.......................... 79 58 93 64 / 20 40 10 0 Portales........................ 79 58 94 65 / 20 40 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 57 94 61 / 30 20 5 0 Roswell......................... 82 61 96 64 / 20 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 57 93 64 / 50 20 5 0 Elk............................. 81 56 91 61 / 60 30 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ101.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125.