textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 547 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026 - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread continues through Monday with the most widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions expected tomorrow and Monday.

- Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- There is a moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through this evening across the eastern plains due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

An upper level trough over the Gulf of CA is starting to sharpen up with deeper pressure falls occurring over the Great Basin. At the surface, a low is starting to deepen to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos, and this strengthening surface gradient will induce stronger breezes and winds this afternoon, particularly over the northeast and south central highlands and into the lower Rio Grande valley. Temperatures are running above normal, especially in northeastern to east central zones, and a few record highs may be met before the afternoon is done.

Winds will be slow to relax this evening, staying gusty over the Continental Divide, central mountain chain, and eastern plains, as the surface low will still be over southeastern CO and western KS. The Baja trough will eject as a shortwave into CO early Sunday with a deeper low settling into the Great Basin. The lee-side surface low will recycle and redevelop on Sunday while the flow aloft increases more (700 mb winds increasing to 20 to 40 kt), and this will lead to even windier conditions through the afternoon. A few zones will be reaching close to 50 mph gusts, namely the northeast and south central highland zones. For now confidence wasn't quite high enough to issue a Wind Advisory, but a last minute issuance is a possibility for Sunday afternoon if speeds aloft and at the surface trend upward by just a few mph. Temperatures will start to cool closer to normal in western zones Sunday as heights lower, and the departures above normal in eastern NM will not be as pronounced (about 8-10 degrees above). The upper low will shift eastward into UT Sunday night, with mid level southwesterlies increasing more over NM. There are some discrepancies with how much these winds will increase with the higher resolution models and CAMs tending to boast much higher 700 mb speeds near 40-55 kt focused over the southern high terrain of NM.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

The strengthening winds aloft will reach their maximum in the morning Monday, prior to peak diurnal heating. The strength of the winds aloft will still dictate how windy it turns through the afternoon with 30-40 kt at 700 mb still looking like a safe bet into the afternoon. Another lee-side surface low will also redevelop near the northeast corner of NM Monday, providing a stout gradient across the state. Therefore, a few Wind Advisories seem within easy reach for Monday, particularly in northeastern zones with some of the highlands even encroaching upon 55 to 60 mph gusts. Secondary to the winds will be the precipitation, which will just amount to scant fast-moving light rain and snow showers/storms skimming across the northern border of the state while the upper low opens up into a wave over CO. Cooler temperatures would sweep in from west to east Monday, pushing daytime highs below normal in western zones. Into Monday night, the backdoor segment of the front will plunge into eastern NM, setting temperatures back several degrees there going into Tuesday. A trailing shortwave trough will drop into UT and eventually CO on Tuesday, but associated precip looks light and well to the north of our CWA. Winds will turn more southerly in the plains by late Tuesday afternoon with breezy speeds. All areas will fortunately observe much lighter speeds than previous days.

The pattern still looks to evolve into the latter half of next week, particularly for the eastern plains of NM, as low layer moisture intrusions begin to occur. The first will come via a convergence of another backdoor front in northeastern NM and southeasterly return flow over TX and our remaining eastern zones. This will gradually sharpen into a north-south oriented dryline into Thursday. The moisture would be accompanied with increased instability, enough for scattered convection and likely a few severe storms over the eastern plains. A shortwave trough would then potentially drop out of the central Rockies to assist storm initiation on Friday. Temperatures in eastern zones would run a bit cooler than average Wednesday through Friday with a welcome respite from the very strong winds (outside of storm outflows). Western zones would tend to hover closer to normal with daily rounds of high-based cumulus only threatening a few sprinkles and localized wind gusts from virga.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Breezy south to southwest winds will continue through the evening before tapering off for most early Sunday morning. A brief period of LLWS at FL020 across northwest, northeast, and east central NM early Sunday morning before southwest winds strengthen areawide beginning mid Sunday morning. Peak gusts of 25 to 40 kts come the mid to late afternoon with the strongest gusts across far west central, south central and eastern NM. Some patchy blowing dust cannot be ruled out. A higher coverage of mid level clouds moves into far northwest NM, including KFMN at the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

A fire weather growing pattern continues to build with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions Sunday and Monday.

Marginal to critical conditions will continue over portions of central and much of eastern NM this afternoon. The windiest areas are still slated over the northeast to south central zones late this afternoon when south southwest speeds will surge up. The Red Flag Warning for today ends at 8pm when winds will start to drop below traditional thresholds, however there is some concern that any ongoing fires will continue to spread, as gusts to 20 to 30 mph will still be quite common along with low humidity. In fact, humidity may only recover to 15 to 25 percent in many central to eastern zones tonight through Sunday morning.

Sunday's critical to extreme event will be driven by an upper low deepening over the Great Basin which will drag increased southwesterly flow aloft into NM, aided by a deep lee-side surface low. Many locales across central to eastern NM are still modeled to reach gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The abysmal humidity recovery Sunday morning will only make it that much easier for afternoon readings to tank below 10%. The Watch for Sunday was consequently upgraded to a Red Flag Warning due to high confidence, but the northwestern plateau and north central mountains have been left out due to slightly lighter winds.

Similar areas were outlined for a Fire Wx Watch on Monday, as strong winds will once again buffet these zones. The Great Basin low will have moved into CO by Monday, and while there is some uncertainty with regards to the strength of the winds aloft on Monday, it still looks very windy with another lee-side surface low aiding the gradient. The strongest winds look to be focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands. Temperatures would be cooling, mostly in western to central zones, and this will offer a slight increase in humidity. However, humidity readings will still be hovering around 10-15% in these western and central zones with even lower values in eastern ones where extreme fire behavior is possible again Monday.

The pattern is still progged to shift to a cooler one in eastern zones on Tuesday, courtesy of a backdoor cold front. The eastern zones then will have a shot for wetting rain as a dryline triggers storms in the eastern half of NM Wednesday through late next week. This would shift the focus from widespread windy conditions to localized outflow threats and lightning starts from storms. Meanwhile western zones would remain more seasonable temperature- wise with only virga or high-based cumulus teasing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 49 80 48 68 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 41 75 41 63 / 0 5 0 40 Cuba............................ 44 76 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 41 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 72 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 43 77 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 75 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 50 78 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 45 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 78 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 82 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 68 38 57 / 0 0 0 40 Los Alamos...................... 53 74 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 47 77 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 72 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 65 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 36 69 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 44 75 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 48 74 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 47 82 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 81 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 82 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 84 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 86 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 51 88 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 84 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 48 86 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 85 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 86 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 81 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 55 84 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 77 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 52 79 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 52 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 81 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 79 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 75 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 45 77 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 45 81 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 47 83 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 51 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 55 87 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 51 82 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 58 91 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 56 93 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 91 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 94 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 53 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106- 123>126.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ104>106- 109-121-123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126.