textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

- A Pacific system will move east across northern Mexico and bring increased cloud cover and low chances for light precipitation through early evening, especially along and south of Interstate 40.

- Otherwise, fair weather conditions and above average temperatures are forecast through the middle of next week.

- A pattern change to cooler, windy, and unsettled conditions is in store for late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

There is good model agreement that the upper low off the coast of Baja California will continue to track south-southeastward just off the coast through Sunday. Thus, the upper level divergence and moisture influx over southern portions of the area today will shift southward tonight into Sunday. Therefore, the best chances for light rain showers and virga will be through early evening. Light snow or flurries will be favored above 9000-9500ft. Most areas will see rainfall or liquid equivalent amounts less than one tenth of an inch. As of this writing, surface dewpoints remain in the teens and low 20s. As precipitation falls into this low level dry air, gusty and erratic winds up to 30 to 35 mph will be possible through the afternoon. This is already being observed farther south at KDMN.

While areas with cloud cover and precipitation today will see high temperatures near normal, elsewhere across the CWA will remain 10 to 20 degrees above normal. These high temps will be well shy of records though. Tonight, the cloud cover will shift eastward allowing for excellent radiational cooling conditions across central and western NM. High cloudiness will persist across east central and southeast areas which will keep low temps from bottoming out.

Sunday will be warm and dry. All areas will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal despite a weak backdoor cold front sliding down the plains Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, surface winds will already begin to veer around to the south.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Quiet conditions will persist Sunday night, with lows across eastern NM a little cooler in the wake of the weak frontal passage.

On Monday, the upper low will shift eastward across the Baja Peninsula then will continue to trek east-northeast over Mexico through Tuesday and before crossing the Big Bend area of Texas Tuesday night. The moisture and lift associated with this feature looks to remain too far south to bring NM much in the way of additional precipitation. However, one exception may be on Tuesday afternoon. Enough moisture may move up into southeast NM for a few showers. A backdoor cold front will also press down the plains on Tuesday. Where the front reaches the moisture will be the focus for any additional precipitation. Otherwise, Monday and Tuesday will remain warm. Highs on Monday will be up to 20 degrees above normal, and up to 15 degrees above normal on Tuesday. Monday will also feature increasing westerly winds across eastern NM as a lee side trough deepens.

West-southwest flow aloft will increase on Wednesday. This will induce another lee side surface trough and weak to moderate downsloping will allow temperatures to warm right back up across eastern NM. Cloud cover will increase as Pacific moisture streams over the area, but temps will still remain well above normal areawide.

It continues to look like a storm system will impact NM late in the week, with Friday the most favorable day for precipitation. However, there continues to be a fair amount of disagreement between models regarding how fast the system tracks and how far north or south the system will be. There's also large disagreement regarding the potential of a backdoor cold front that could arrive before the onset of precipitation.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Light showers, mainly in the form of rain, and virga will continue to impact southwest areas through early afternoon before expanding northeast and east toward KABQ, KONM and KSRR. VFR cigs should persist as rainfall will remain light, though low chances exist for brief mtn obscurations. Given dry low levels, these showers may produce gusty and erratic winds through the afternoon. Showers will diminish shortly after sunset. Much of the cloud cover will shift eastward over TX by sunrise Sunday, though some high cirrus will persist over southeast areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Light showers will persist through this evening across southern portions of the forecast area. Thereafter, dry conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday. Better chances for precipitation will arrive on Friday with the passage of a storm system. A few breezes will be possible through this afternoon with the shower activity, but winds will remain light on Sunday. On Monday, a strengthening lee side surface low will increase westerly winds across eastern NM. Gusts near 30 or 35 mph will be likely while RH values fall below 15 percent. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be a concern, especially near and north of the I-40 corridor. A backdoor front will arrive early Tuesday, and though some breezes will be noted along and behind it, RH values will increase enough to preclude critical conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions may return on Wednesday across northeast NM, though cloud cover may limit mixing and therefore keep winds below criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 26 61 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 60 22 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 25 58 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 17 61 16 63 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 25 59 25 60 / 5 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 20 61 17 65 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 25 59 25 62 / 10 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 33 59 34 63 / 20 0 0 10 Datil........................... 28 57 28 60 / 10 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 24 66 25 66 / 20 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 28 69 28 71 / 10 0 0 10 Chama........................... 25 54 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 35 57 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 31 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 22 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 13 52 10 54 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 24 59 20 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 59 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 27 64 24 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 35 64 36 64 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 65 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 67 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 31 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 66 27 67 / 5 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 31 66 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 25 67 26 67 / 5 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 30 67 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 24 66 25 67 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 33 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 33 66 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 35 67 34 69 / 10 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 58 35 60 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 35 59 36 60 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 34 61 32 62 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 63 20 65 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 58 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 34 62 32 63 / 10 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 30 62 30 63 / 10 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 36 65 37 65 / 20 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 36 59 35 60 / 20 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 32 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 28 63 22 67 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 29 64 21 69 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 29 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 40 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 63 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 34 70 29 76 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 66 31 71 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 39 71 32 76 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 41 70 37 74 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 40 71 33 75 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 70 32 73 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 41 73 36 73 / 10 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 40 68 35 72 / 10 0 0 5 Elk............................. 36 68 34 69 / 10 0 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.