textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026 - Slick travel conditions due to valley rain and mountain snow will favor the northern half of New Mexico Saturday.

- There is a low (10% - 20%) risk of flooding impacts over northwestern New Mexico Saturday.

- Quieter conditions expected Sunday and Monday, with unsettled weather returning Tuesday and again late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1235 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Quiet conditions will prevail through Friday morning. Clear skies will give way to high cirrus late tonight into Friday morning and the upper high shifts eastward and the first storm system approaches the state.

System #1, a closed low west of SoCal by this evening, will shift eastward and weaken through tonight before shifting along the NM/MX border Friday night through Saturday morning. Ascent ahead of the trough axis combined with modest moisture advection (PWATs increasing from near 0.3 to near 0.6") will allow for rain showers to develop as early as Friday afternoon across western NM. The RRFS appears to be considerably more aggressive with shower coverage and QPF than the HRRR regarding a line of showers across western NM Friday afternoon. That said, most models, except the HRRR, have been trending toward expanding precipitation northward. PoPs have increased slightly across western NM Friday, though rainfall amounts should generally be less than 0.25 inches. This line of showers should move into the Rio Grande Valley Friday evening, though the line may not be as robust. Still, light rain may return to the ABQ Metro. Light showers are also expected across south central and southeast areas Friday night as the system crosses.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1235 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

System #2, a weakly closed low, will be on the heels of the first system, but is expected to cross near the NM/CO border Saturday and Saturday night. Ascent ahead of this system will allow rain showers to develop across northwest NM as early as sunrise Saturday. Showers will then expand across much of northern NM through the day, reaching at least as far south as the I-40 corridor. Enough instability exists for a few thunderstorms, especially along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns. There remains potential for additional flooding across northwest NM given how saturated soils remain, though chances remain low. Regardless, any additional precipitation will not help the muddy roads, recovery efforts, etc. across the area. Snow levels will be near 9000 feet. Above this level, between 1 and 6 inches of the white stuff is expected, with the west slopes above 9kft favored. A Winter Weather Advisory or two may be needed if trends continue. An associated weak Pacific cold front will also race from west to east on Saturday. Breezy to locally windy westerly winds can be expected behind it. The low will shift into the Panhandles shortly after midnight Saturday night, and precipitation will quickly taper off. One exception will be light wrap-around precip across northeast NM that will linger for a few more hours.

Low temperatures will be chilly Saturday night after the precip ends and the clouds clear. Places like Farmington, ABQ Valley, Moriarty and Santa Fe are expected to freeze.

Quiet weather returns Sunday and Monday as upper level ridging moves into the area. A backdoor front will slide down the plains on Sunday, but high temps will only be a few degrees cooler than on Saturday.

The next storm system is expected to impact NM starting Tuesday. A sharp trough across the western U.S. will slide eastward before lifting northeastward Tuesday over the Four Corners. Models suggest there is no subtropical tap of moisture ahead of this system, so we'll only be working with the moisture it brings with it. It appears northwest NM will be favored for precipitation with orographic lift as the primary forcing. It should be noted while most operational models show this solution, ensembles suggest at least light precipitation will be possible just about anywhere.

Wednesday looks to be quieter but another, potentially stronger, system may be in the offing late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with light winds. No aviation hazards are expected. Cirrus will move in from west to east overnight into Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. Quiet conditions will continue today, but light winds will result in poor ventilation for most areas. Rain showers will return across western and portions of central NM on Friday, then more showers and a few thunderstorms on Saturday across northern NM. Westerly winds will increase behind a cold front on Saturday as well with gusts between 25 and 30 mph common. Ventilation improves Friday and Saturday with the increase in winds. Quieter conditions expected Sunday and Monday with ridging overhead. Poor ventilation will return. The next storm system arrives on Tuesday. Precipitation will be favored across northwest NM. Quieter weather Wednesday, but another system will impact the area late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 34 61 40 52 / 0 5 30 80 Dulce........................... 28 61 34 47 / 0 0 40 90 Cuba............................ 32 58 36 47 / 0 5 30 90 Gallup.......................... 30 59 36 49 / 0 20 30 80 El Morro........................ 32 57 33 45 / 0 20 50 80 Grants.......................... 29 58 33 50 / 0 50 50 70 Quemado......................... 32 59 35 51 / 0 30 50 40 Magdalena....................... 37 58 37 53 / 0 40 30 30 Datil........................... 31 54 33 47 / 0 30 40 40 Reserve......................... 30 60 37 54 / 0 40 60 40 Glenwood........................ 36 66 40 57 / 0 30 70 50 Chama........................... 31 53 33 41 / 0 0 40 90 Los Alamos...................... 38 56 38 47 / 0 0 30 80 Pecos........................... 32 59 35 48 / 0 5 20 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 54 35 44 / 0 0 20 90 Red River....................... 25 48 29 38 / 0 0 20 90 Angel Fire...................... 16 53 26 44 / 0 0 10 80 Taos............................ 27 58 33 49 / 0 0 20 90 Mora............................ 31 59 33 49 / 0 0 20 60 Espanola........................ 31 64 37 55 / 0 0 20 80 Santa Fe........................ 35 59 38 49 / 0 5 20 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 60 37 52 / 0 0 20 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 63 41 56 / 0 5 20 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 63 42 58 / 0 5 20 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 65 39 61 / 0 5 20 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 63 40 59 / 0 5 20 60 Belen........................... 32 64 40 60 / 0 10 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 35 65 41 59 / 0 5 20 70 Bosque Farms.................... 32 64 38 60 / 0 5 20 60 Corrales........................ 35 65 41 59 / 0 5 20 70 Los Lunas....................... 32 64 39 60 / 0 5 20 50 Placitas........................ 36 62 39 54 / 0 5 20 70 Rio Rancho...................... 36 64 41 58 / 0 5 20 60 Socorro......................... 37 65 41 63 / 0 10 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 59 38 50 / 0 10 20 70 Tijeras......................... 37 60 39 51 / 0 10 20 70 Edgewood........................ 32 61 37 52 / 0 10 20 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 63 35 54 / 0 10 20 60 Clines Corners.................. 35 59 38 50 / 0 5 20 50 Mountainair..................... 33 61 39 53 / 0 10 20 60 Gran Quivira.................... 34 61 40 53 / 0 10 20 60 Carrizozo....................... 39 65 43 56 / 0 20 40 40 Ruidoso......................... 37 59 40 49 / 0 30 50 40 Capulin......................... 34 58 37 47 / 0 0 10 70 Raton........................... 30 62 35 52 / 0 0 10 70 Springer........................ 27 64 36 55 / 0 0 10 60 Las Vegas....................... 32 62 36 50 / 0 0 20 50 Clayton......................... 39 63 41 48 / 0 0 10 70 Roy............................. 33 60 41 51 / 0 0 10 60 Conchas......................... 35 68 46 61 / 0 0 10 60 Santa Rosa...................... 35 65 45 60 / 0 0 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 37 68 46 60 / 0 0 20 70 Clovis.......................... 39 68 46 59 / 0 0 20 70 Portales........................ 37 68 45 61 / 0 0 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 36 67 47 61 / 0 0 20 60 Roswell......................... 39 68 48 65 / 0 5 40 10 Picacho......................... 39 65 43 62 / 0 20 30 5 Elk............................. 35 67 41 60 / 0 30 50 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.