textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Rapid fire spread will be possible from any new spark this afternoon from incredibly dry conditions and strengthening westerly winds through the northwestern quadrant of NM.

- Isolated showers and storms may produce gusty and erratic wind gusts in far eastern New Mexico this afternoon then again Monday and Tuesday.

- High temperatures will generally be 3 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages this weekend, increasing the risk of heat related illnesses for sensitive individuals.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The ridge over the southern rockies is in the process of being broken down, with a drier airmass pushing into the Four Corners region out ahead of a Great Basin trough. A slight uptick in winds will accompany this transition today, with southwest to west breezes prevailing areawide. Moisture will be scoured out of most of the area, but there could be just enough across the northeast corner of the state this afternoon before the dry airmass eventually takes over. A few high-based showers could develop further south too in the east-central plains, although nearly no hi-res models are bearish on the development of any convection at all.

It will be an extraordinarily dry night across central and western NM, with overnight humidities struggling to rise above the 15% mark. This will help it to cool off well, offering some relief from the persistent heat. Speaking of heat, Sunday will bring about an increase in temps, with Roswell forecast to hit 106F. Therefore, a Heat Advisory was issued for the Chaves County Plains. It will once again be another sunny June day with UV index levels maxing out the scale. Sunscreen is a must if planning to spend time outdoors.

A shortwave trough exiting into the High Plains on Sunday will send a backdoor front southward, reaching the northeast corner of New Mexico during the late evening. There is a low chance that showers initiate along this boundary, although rain chances will mostly be limited to Union County. The somewhat unimpressive boundary (in terms of temp/moisture gradient) will push up against the central mountain chain Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The influx of moisture across eastern NM on Monday should be enough to generate at least isolated convection, although the building monsoon high to the south will attempt to put a cap on convection. This high pressure will continue to intensify mid-week, reaching a strength of around ~598 dam, which is around 2 standard deviations above climatology. Temperatures will tick up a few more degrees as a result, creating localized Major HeatRisk along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. Mid-level moisture will continue creeping northward underneath the high mid-week as well, with increasing shower and storm chances on Wednesday. Since sfc dewpoints will still be in the 30-40F range across the western half of the state, dry storms will be a threat, with gusty winds more likely than wetting rainfall. This changes late week as the ridge weakens and PWATs tick upwards. Westerly flow with embedded shortwaves will favor the development of strong storms in eastern NM each day Wednesday through Friday where chances of wetting precipitation will be higher. The monsoon ridge retreats again over the weekend in response to strengthening westerly flow that will once again dry out the region. This relatively dry and hot pattern looks to persist into the early portion of the following week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A moderate SW to W breeze with gusts of 15 to 30 kts will prevail at most terminals this afternoon and evening between 18Z and 02Z. Isolated high-based showers and storms may develop in far eastern NM this afternoon, but forecast confidence is low.

Smoke advected eastward from fires in SE Arizona may create very minor vis reductions down to the sfc in southwest and south-central NM tonight into early Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Hot, dry, and windy conditions today will create several hours of critical fire weather conditions in the western half of the state where fuels are very dry and ERCs are generally above the 90th percentile. A very dry airmass will continue pushing into New Mexico from the west overnight so humidity recoveries tonight will be very poor, with portions of west-central NM struggling to rise above 10%. Sunday will be even drier than today, with single digit humidities areawide and values even dropping below 5% in a few areas. Fortunately, winds will be lighter, helping to mitigate fire spread risks.

Low rain chances return to northeast NM on Monday, increasing in coverage Tuesday. Sub-tropical moisture spreading northward from northern Mexico will begin to create high-based showers and storms across western and central areas mid next week. Dry storms with strong and erratic outflow winds may start new fires given the dry boundary layer and still low sfc dewpoints (30-40F). Storms across eastern NM have the potential to be stronger and are more likely to produce wetting rainfall. Storm coverage looks to peak on Thursday, then trends lower Friday into the weekend. The downtick in storm coverage will coincide with increasing west winds, likely creating at least localized critical fire weather conditions across western NM next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 51 93 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 89 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 88 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 44 89 43 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 48 91 47 93 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 51 89 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 54 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 48 95 48 96 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 98 54 99 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 44 83 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 44 77 43 75 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 36 82 36 81 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 49 88 49 84 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 58 96 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 99 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 61 100 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 98 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 99 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 61 99 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 99 57 98 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 62 94 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 68 103 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 58 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 93 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 59 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 59 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 97 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 54 89 52 80 / 0 0 10 20 Raton........................... 50 93 51 86 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 51 95 53 87 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 91 53 87 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 61 96 60 84 / 0 0 20 10 Roy............................. 57 93 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 62 101 62 91 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 65 97 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 102 63 91 / 10 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 65 102 62 92 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 103 62 95 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 101 64 94 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 106 67 100 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 65 99 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 61 96 60 92 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-120- 121.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ238.