textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry fuels will increase the risk of rapid fire spread east of the central mountain chain Sunday, Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

- A warm storm system will spread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and high terrain snow mainly along and south of I-40 Monday night through Tuesday evening resulting in wet roads, a risk of hydroplaning, and some cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1227 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will be the main concern Sunday and Monday, impacting northeast and east central areas. With zonal flow over the northern and central Rockies, and a cutoff upper level low pressure system off the Baja CA coast gradually inducing a ridge of high pressure over the forecast area, high temperatures will climb Sunday near 1991-2020 averages to 14 degrees above them, and around 8 to 20 degrees above the averages on Monday. A surface low will also deepen over the northeast corner of NM during this time period reaching around 1003 mb Sunday, and around 1000 mb on Monday. Ample atmospheric mixing in the very warm temperatures, and the surface pressure gradient in the lee-side surface trough, look sufficient for west and southwest wind gusts from 30-40 mph to develop along and east of a line from Red River to Clines Corners Sunday afternoon, and from 25-35 mph on Monday. Elsewhere, wind speeds will be significantly lighter. Humidities will also drop into the single digits and low teens across most of northern and central New Mexico Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1227 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

The aforementioned Baja low will eject eastward spreading scattered to numerous rain showers, high terrain snow showers, and isolated thunderstorms over the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday evening. With this forecast package the probability of wetting precip spread as far north as I-40, and also to the northern mountains, because an increasing number of models have begun depicting the upper low opening into a trough and lifting northeastward across the southeast half of NM. This track would bring greater dynamic forcing over the forecast area, so our updated QPF forecast now depicts rain amounts around 0.05-0.25" along and south of I-40, with locally higher amounts in the central and southern mountains, and up to a tenth of an inch in the northern mountains. The snow accumulation level may briefly drop as low as 7,500 feet Monday night, then climb above 10,000 feet Tuesday afternoon, so net snow accumulation in the mountains should be light and focus on the highest peaks. Breezy to windy conditions are forecast across much of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening as the weather system crosses, with gusts generally peaking between 25-40 mph. Temperatures will trend cooler Tuesday areawide, then continued cooling is forecast behind a backdoor cold front over eastern NM on Wednesday.

A warming trend that begins over southwest areas Wednesday will spread to the entire forecast area under dry northwest flow aloft Thursday, then temperatures will keep climbing on Friday. High temperatures should peak around 7 to 17 degrees above 30-year averages Thursday, then around 12 to 22 degrees above the averages on Friday. The flow aloft will also strengthen late in the work week, while a lee-side surface trough develops, producing breezy to windy conditions mainly along and east of the central mountain chain both days. Very low humidities are also forecast with fire weather concerns across the east.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions are forecast at TAF sites the next 24 hours. However, wind gusts up to 45 KT are forecast along and east of a line from Red River to Clines Corners on Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

A lee-side surface trough will return gusty downslope flow to northeast and east central areas Sunday and Monday with single digit humidities and an increasing risk of critical fire weather conditions both days. Current forecast grids depict greater coverage of critical conditions over northeast areas Sunday than Monday, due to weaker flow aloft on Monday under the induced ridge of high pressure (mentioned above). However, the deepening surface low over the northeast corner of NM, and atmospheric mixing near and above 10,000 feet should enable breezy to windy conditions to redevelop anyway on Monday. With this forecast package, we will upgrade Sunday's Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning over northeast and east central areas, and also issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday over the Central Highlands. The latest wind speed forecast came out a little too borderline to issue a Red Flag Warning in the Central Highlands. So, we will let the night shift re-evaluate wind speeds based on updated model guidance and upgrade to a Red Flag Warning if needed. With this forecast package we are also issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Monday east of the central mountain chain. After Tuesday precipitation event, breezy to windy conditions will redevelop Thursday and Friday while humidities plummet with an increasing likelihood of critical fire weather conditions east of the central mountain chain Thursday and Friday, and potentially farther west on Friday as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 25 60 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 16 58 19 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 24 59 29 66 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 17 63 22 68 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 26 61 31 66 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 19 65 25 70 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 25 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 33 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 28 61 34 65 / 0 5 0 10 Reserve......................... 25 69 30 70 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 29 74 34 76 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 18 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 30 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 28 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 25 57 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 22 47 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 15 53 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 17 61 22 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 25 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 22 66 27 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 61 36 67 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 27 64 31 69 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 66 41 72 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 68 37 74 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 71 34 76 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 69 37 74 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 26 69 31 75 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 31 69 36 74 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 26 70 31 76 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 31 70 36 75 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 28 69 32 75 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 34 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 32 69 36 74 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 33 72 38 77 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 33 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 25 64 32 69 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 66 25 71 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 27 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 27 64 34 69 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 28 65 36 69 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 35 69 41 73 / 0 5 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 32 63 40 67 / 0 5 0 10 Capulin......................... 21 64 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 18 67 26 72 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 19 69 26 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 25 65 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 30 72 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 25 70 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 28 77 37 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 28 72 37 77 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 30 77 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 33 74 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 30 75 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 74 34 81 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 34 72 40 82 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 31 72 39 79 / 0 5 0 10 Elk............................. 29 71 37 77 / 0 5 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Sunday for NMZ104-123-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ125.