textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 710 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through the end of this weekend and early next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly over central, western, and northern areas. - Above normal high temperatures will continue through the end of the week across eastern New Mexico, where moderate to major heat risk will occur each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Latest radar trends indicate near-term guidance has been too aggressive with the coverage of SHRA/TS this evening. Lowered PoPs in many areas overnight. Lingering cloud cover Friday morning may slow convective development until mid afternoon. Also lowered max temps a few degrees for Friday, especially out west.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

With the 500 mb high pressure system centered near TN, a low pressure system slowly crossing onshore over the OR coast, and convectively active tropics well to the south of NM, monsoon moisture will continue to increase over central and western parts of the forecast area tonight, then area-wide on Friday. Some showers and thunderstorms will probably linger late tonight into Friday morning near the continental divide. Friday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast, except for more numerous cells around the south central, southwest, and west central mountains. With PWATs climbing around 1-1.3" tonight and Friday, there will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall. The main concern for isolated flash flooding will be Friday afternoon and evening, when there will be a slight risk of excessive rainfall over the west-central and southwest mountains in the afternoon. The increased moisture, precip, and cloud cover on Friday, will cause high temperatures on Friday to fall a few to 7 degrees over central and western NM compared to today's readings. Highs on Friday will vary from 6 degrees below 1991-2020 averages around Farmington and Gallup, to as much as 12 degrees above the averages around Clovis and Portales.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The monsoon moisture plume is forecast to continue to produce daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly over central and western parts of the forecast area Saturday through Tuesday as the upper high varies its position east of NM and the upper low on the OR coast gradually sweeps inland over the northern Rockies. There will be a continued risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding Saturday through at least Monday as anomalously high PWATs continue to vary around 1-1.3 inches. The steering flow will also slow down this weekend as the upper high aloft draws closer to NM. Models vary on whether the upper low over the northern Rockies will begin to steer drier air over NM on Tuesday, potentially resulting in a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity at least over northwest parts of the state. Models vary even more on the position of the upper high after Tuesday, with drier solutions indicating a centroid near or just north of NM, and wetter solutions recentering the upper high over the Mississippi River.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Scattered SHRA and isolated TS will move north over the airspace this evening with gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and a few lightning strikes. Thick mid level clouds and sprinkles are likely to continue overnight within central and western NM. A more robust crop of SHRA/TS will develop over the airspace between 11am and 3pm Friday then move north/northeast. Direct hits will produce brief heavy rain, strong outflow winds, and frequent lightning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

With minimum humidities remaining above 15 percent for the next seven days, the main fire weather concern from day to day will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 82 59 83 / 10 20 10 0 Dulce........................... 46 80 47 85 / 10 20 20 10 Cuba............................ 56 77 56 82 / 50 30 50 10 Gallup.......................... 54 77 53 80 / 30 30 20 5 El Morro........................ 52 73 52 78 / 40 50 30 20 Grants.......................... 54 77 55 82 / 40 60 40 20 Quemado......................... 55 75 55 79 / 50 70 40 30 Magdalena....................... 59 79 59 83 / 40 60 40 40 Datil........................... 54 75 55 79 / 40 60 30 50 Reserve......................... 55 79 54 86 / 40 50 30 50 Glenwood........................ 58 83 58 94 / 50 30 20 30 Chama........................... 50 75 50 80 / 5 30 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 60 80 61 83 / 40 30 40 40 Pecos........................... 58 81 57 86 / 10 20 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 79 55 83 / 10 20 20 40 Red River....................... 47 73 47 74 / 20 20 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 37 76 40 80 / 30 40 20 70 Taos............................ 53 82 53 86 / 20 20 20 30 Mora............................ 54 80 54 83 / 10 40 30 70 Espanola........................ 59 86 60 90 / 30 30 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 82 61 86 / 20 20 40 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 85 59 89 / 20 20 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 86 67 92 / 10 20 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 88 65 92 / 10 20 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 89 64 94 / 20 20 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 87 67 92 / 20 20 30 10 Belen........................... 63 88 63 93 / 20 30 40 10 Bernalillo...................... 66 88 66 93 / 20 20 40 10 Bosque Farms.................... 62 88 62 93 / 10 30 30 10 Corrales........................ 66 88 66 94 / 20 20 40 10 Los Lunas....................... 63 88 63 93 / 10 30 30 10 Placitas........................ 65 86 65 90 / 20 20 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 87 66 93 / 20 20 40 10 Socorro......................... 68 89 67 95 / 30 30 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 80 59 86 / 10 20 40 30 Tijeras......................... 61 83 61 87 / 10 20 30 30 Edgewood........................ 57 84 57 88 / 10 30 30 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 86 55 90 / 10 30 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 59 83 59 86 / 20 30 30 50 Mountainair..................... 58 83 57 87 / 10 30 30 50 Gran Quivira.................... 59 84 58 87 / 10 30 30 50 Carrizozo....................... 64 86 64 90 / 20 40 20 60 Ruidoso......................... 58 79 58 83 / 20 60 20 80 Capulin......................... 58 86 58 86 / 5 20 10 40 Raton........................... 55 88 55 89 / 5 20 10 40 Springer........................ 55 91 56 91 / 5 20 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 56 84 57 86 / 5 30 20 50 Clayton......................... 66 94 66 94 / 5 10 20 20 Roy............................. 61 90 61 90 / 5 20 10 10 Conchas......................... 67 98 67 98 / 5 20 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 66 93 65 93 / 10 20 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 70 98 69 98 / 5 10 20 10 Clovis.......................... 69 96 68 98 / 5 20 20 5 Portales........................ 70 97 69 99 / 10 20 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 68 98 / 5 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 70 99 70 100 / 10 20 20 0 Picacho......................... 64 91 64 93 / 10 60 10 30 Elk............................. 60 87 60 91 / 20 50 20 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.