textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 214 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A strong winter storm will impact much of central and northern New Mexico Friday through Sunday morning with snow, wintry mix, frigid temperatures, blowing snow, and treacherous travel conditions. Widespread minor impacts are expected with increasing chances for moderate to major impacts, especially along and east of the central mountain chain.

- Temperatures will plummet Friday in eastern New Mexico, with cold air spreading into central New Mexico Saturday through Monday morning. An extended period of bitterly cold temperatures will increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia, with the highest threat in the eastern plains.

- Dry weather returns early next week as temperatures rise back up to near seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 214 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Despite high clouds streaming across the state, temperatures have dropped quite rapidly thanks to the dry airmass in place. It will be another chilly morning, with sub-freezing temps areawide. Broken to overcast skies will prevail around the state today, with a light to moderate breeze developing in eastern NM in response to a gradual intensification of westerly flow aloft.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 214 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...

Big picture updates:

- Snow totals have trended down slightly due to higher snow levels related to the slower westerly progression of an Arctic cold front. Persistent heavy snowfall with moderate to potentially major impacts is still favored for areas along and just east of the central mountain chain including the I-40 corridor from Tijeras Canyon to the eastern plains. Forecast confidence remains high for bitterly cold sub-zero wind chills in eastern NM Friday night through Monday morning.

A potent longwave trough over the upper Midwest will send an Arctic front southward down the High Plains Thursday afternoon, with the front likely arriving into northeastern NM late Thursday evening. The trajectory of the cold front will keep the stronger winds and the most intense cold air advection further east in Oklahoma/Kansas. Sfc winds will turn around to the east Friday afternoon in eastern NM as the ~1050mb sfc high slides southward into Minnesota and Iowa. Temperatures will tumble throughout the day in eastern NM as the colder and drier air continues pushing in from the east.

Meanwhile, strong moisture advection will occur from the southwest out ahead of an upper-low off the southern CA coast, with PWATs rising up to as much as 2 to 4 standard deviations above average in south-central NM. The warm, moist Pacific moisture juxtaposed with the cold, dry Arctic airmass is what will create a significant winter storm across central and eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow along the central mountain chain and large-scale isentropic lift provide excellent conditions for a wide swath of persistent precipitation to develop across central and eastern NM Friday evening through the day Saturday. Model soundings in the Central Highlands show an very saturated atmosphere from 300mb down to the sfc Friday afternoon through Saturday night, creating treacherous travel conditions along I-40 from Tijeras Canyon eastward to Tucumcari. Winds will not be strong enough to create significant visibility reductions in blowing snow, but it will become more of a concern as the snow piles up and snow character trends drier as temperatures drop. The "bullseye" for snow amounts has consistently trended further east in recent forecast updates, with the max shifting from Torrance County into Guadalupe county.

Strong southwest flow will keep the arctic airmass at bay through the afternoon Saturday, but the front will be pulled westward after sunset Saturday night, rapidly dropping temperatures along the Rio Grande Valley, with snow levels dropping down to valley floors. This transition over to snow in the Albuquerque metro area is notably later than models previously indicated, with three straight runs from the GEFS and EPS trending warmer in this area. There is still time for this trend to reverse as it will be closely related to the cold frontal position. The recent rising of snow levels is not unique to the Rio Grande Valley though, as it it should delay the transition over to snow in western NM and the Tularosa Valley/south central mountains as well. The base of the Pacific trough will also be swinging through Saturday afternoon, with the strongest divergence aloft remaining centered over central NM. A lagging shortwave trough will provide one last burst of snow late Saturday/early Sunday as it moves across the state from northwest to southeast, but recent runs of the EPS and GEFS have trended faster with this feature. The GEFS is still holding onto a slower moving trough which would favor a bit more snow across western and central areas.

Cold temperatures are still on track to invade eastern NM, with the coldest temps Sunday morning when the NBM is showing a 10-50% chance of lows below 0 across the eastern plains. Monday morning will be the coldest morning in western and central areas, including along the Rio Grande Valley where morning lows have trended colder. The NBM is now showing up to 90% chance of sub-zero lows in the Upper Rio Grande Valley, including a 50% in Taos.

Thawing will occur Monday into Tuesday, with highs creeping up to near average by mid-week. Dry quasi-zonal flow is favored through mid-week, with a low chance (20-30%) for increased rain/snow chances towards the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR prevails with light prevailing winds most areas as increasing high cirrus blankets the state. A northerly drainage wind gusting 12 to 18 kts at KSAF will be favored again late tonight into Thursday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next seven days. Dry, seasonably warm weather with broken to overcast skies are expected today. A significant winter storm will impact the region Friday through Sunday, with widespread rain/snow and much colder temperatures, particularly in eastern NM behind an Arctic front. Heaviest snow will favor areas along and just east of the central mountain chain. Dry weather returns Monday, with gradually warming temps early to mid-week as snow melts.

Ventilation will remain poor in most areas through next Thursday, with only pockets of fair ventilation both today and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 29 47 33 / 0 5 20 80 Dulce........................... 51 22 41 27 / 0 10 60 90 Cuba............................ 50 27 40 27 / 0 0 50 90 Gallup.......................... 54 22 47 28 / 0 0 40 70 El Morro........................ 51 29 43 31 / 0 0 50 80 Grants.......................... 56 24 46 26 / 0 0 50 80 Quemado......................... 56 28 47 31 / 0 5 60 70 Magdalena....................... 56 36 45 36 / 0 5 60 80 Datil........................... 54 31 44 32 / 0 5 60 80 Reserve......................... 61 28 49 31 / 0 10 70 80 Glenwood........................ 64 31 52 33 / 0 10 70 80 Chama........................... 45 21 36 24 / 0 5 50 90 Los Alamos...................... 48 30 39 30 / 0 0 40 90 Pecos........................... 51 24 39 22 / 0 0 40 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 29 38 28 / 0 0 30 70 Red River....................... 41 24 33 23 / 0 0 30 80 Angel Fire...................... 46 14 36 15 / 0 0 30 90 Taos............................ 50 19 40 24 / 0 0 30 80 Mora............................ 55 22 37 20 / 0 0 30 90 Espanola........................ 54 23 45 29 / 0 0 30 90 Santa Fe........................ 49 30 41 29 / 0 0 40 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 51 27 43 27 / 0 0 40 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 36 46 36 / 0 0 50 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 32 47 34 / 0 0 50 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 30 48 33 / 0 0 40 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 32 47 35 / 0 0 40 90 Belen........................... 56 27 49 33 / 0 0 50 90 Bernalillo...................... 56 31 47 33 / 0 0 40 90 Bosque Farms.................... 56 27 49 31 / 0 0 50 90 Corrales........................ 56 30 47 33 / 0 0 40 90 Los Lunas....................... 55 28 49 33 / 0 0 50 90 Placitas........................ 52 34 45 33 / 0 0 50 90 Rio Rancho...................... 54 32 47 34 / 0 0 40 90 Socorro......................... 59 32 49 37 / 0 5 50 90 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 30 41 30 / 0 0 50 90 Tijeras......................... 49 32 43 31 / 0 0 50 90 Edgewood........................ 53 27 41 26 / 0 0 40 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 21 42 21 / 0 0 40 90 Clines Corners.................. 50 23 36 20 / 0 0 40 90 Mountainair..................... 53 30 43 27 / 0 0 50 90 Gran Quivira.................... 54 30 44 29 / 0 0 60 90 Carrizozo....................... 57 35 48 35 / 0 5 70 90 Ruidoso......................... 54 35 43 31 / 0 10 70 90 Capulin......................... 51 15 26 6 / 0 0 10 50 Raton........................... 54 16 30 10 / 0 0 10 50 Springer........................ 56 17 32 13 / 0 0 10 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 20 34 17 / 0 0 20 80 Clayton......................... 49 19 23 6 / 0 5 30 80 Roy............................. 51 20 27 10 / 0 0 20 80 Conchas......................... 59 23 33 12 / 0 0 30 90 Santa Rosa...................... 60 24 36 16 / 0 0 30 90 Tucumcari....................... 59 22 31 13 / 0 0 20 90 Clovis.......................... 60 27 33 15 / 0 0 20 90 Portales........................ 62 27 34 14 / 0 0 30 90 Fort Sumner..................... 63 24 39 15 / 0 0 30 90 Roswell......................... 61 31 44 28 / 0 0 50 90 Picacho......................... 66 32 44 25 / 0 5 50 80 Elk............................. 65 32 46 23 / 0 10 70 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for NMZ210>218-221>224-226-229-232>240.

Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for NMZ207-208-219-225-241.