textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1009 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico this week as a few backdoor cold fronts push through the area. The biggest drop in temperatures is expected Friday and Saturday across eastern NM behind an Arctic cold front.

- Chances for precipitation return with an Arctic cold front Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for winter weather impacts, especially along and east of the central mountain chain where there is a good chance (50-70%) for the development of difficult to severe driving conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The backdoor cold front is still making slow westward progress into central NM as of mid day and is forecast to move through the central mountain chain this afternoon/evening, creating east canyon winds with gusts to between 20-25kts into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys. The cold airmass will be replaced with downslope warming from breezy westerly winds across eastern NM on Tuesday, with temperatures forecast to rise 15-25 degrees across east central and northeast NM compared to today's.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1040 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The next in a series of backdoor cold fronts will move into northeast NM Tuesday night and then continue south through the remainder of the eastern plains Wednesday morning. This one will bring only weak cold air advection and 0-10 degrees of cooling relative to Tuesday's temperatures. Very dry and slightly warmer conditions will prevail Thursday under weaker westerly flow aloft.

All eyes are on an Arctic cold front, forecast to enter northeast NM late Thursday, then slide down the eastern plains early Friday and ooze slowly westward through the central mountain chain Friday night or Saturday morning. The 12Z medium range model solutions agree on this scenario and are showing decent run-to-run consistency from yesterday's 12Z cycle and last night's 00Z runs. Our forecast temperatures continue to trend down for Fri/Sat, especially across eastern NM, although we're lagging behind the MOS at this time. Confidence in the temperature forecast is trending up as well, especially across the northeast plains where temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing Thursday night and continue below freezing into Sunday. Pacific moisture advection will be ramping up at the same time, while a Pacific low moves from offshore of SoCal to over the Baja Peninsula. Forcing from upslope winds behind backdoor front along the central mountain chain and isentropic upglide will ensue Fri/Sat, bringing precipitation and increasing potential for winter weather impacts. Lower forecast confidence on winter weather impacts west of the central mountain chain due to a more shallow and modified Arctic airmass, but higher forecast confidence along/east of the central mountain chain where accumulating snow is expected. The southeast and east central plains may see a mix of wintry precipitation Fri/Sat, including freezing rain, sleet and snow. That said, the latest modeling favors mostly snow across that area. Forecast uncertainty increases significantly late Sat/Sun due to model spread in the handling of the Pacific low and an upper level trough diving southeast from the Pacific NW. Lastly, freezing fog is a typical feature of these cold Arctic airmasses as they spread west into the eastern highlands and east slopes of the central mountain chain and we expect that will be the case with this event as well. All that said, there is a good chance (50-70%) that difficult to severe winter driving conditions will materialize across eastern and portions of central NM Fri/Sat and those with travel plans are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts and be on the lookout for potential watches/warnings/advisories toward the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Prevailing winds have tapered off this evening and are expected to stay light thru most of the TAF period. The exception will be a modest northerly drainage wind at KSAF. Breezy westerlies will favor a return for areas along and east of the central highlands, where gusts will reach 15-20kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1040 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across western NM through Thursday, with a couple of backdoor cold fronts creating mixed conditions across eastern NM. An Arctic cold front will push into eastern NM on Friday and then gradually move west into central NM through Saturday, bringing much colder conditions. Pacific moisture advection will ramp up at the same time, resulting in higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation that will favor areas along/east of the central mountain chain. Vent rates will dip and become poor areawide by Saturday behind the front and then continue to be poor on Sunday as temperatures slowly recover.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 21 45 20 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 14 48 13 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 17 47 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 13 50 14 53 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 21 50 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 14 53 14 56 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 20 52 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 24 51 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 23 52 24 54 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 20 60 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 24 63 23 65 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 14 42 14 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 22 45 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 17 49 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 18 45 20 46 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 14 37 16 39 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 4 42 7 43 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 11 47 12 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 16 52 19 52 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 16 53 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 22 47 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 19 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 27 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 23 51 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 21 53 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 24 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 18 52 19 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 23 53 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 18 52 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 22 53 24 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 19 52 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 25 49 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 24 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 23 54 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 22 46 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 23 46 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 18 49 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 11 51 15 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 16 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 18 49 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 18 50 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 23 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 20 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 14 53 14 46 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 10 54 14 48 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 9 57 14 52 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 15 54 18 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 22 58 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 14 54 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 17 61 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 17 58 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 16 60 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 17 54 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 15 55 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 14 55 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 19 53 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 19 58 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 18 60 24 59 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.