textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring soaking rains to the Land of Enchantment today through Tuesday. - There is a moderate (60-70%) risk for flash flooding within and downstream of the South Fork, Salt and Seven Cabins burn scars this afternoon through tonight. There is a moderate (40-60%) risk on Tuesday.

- Gusty and erratic winds will accompany thunderstorms across central and south central NM this afternoon. A stray severe storm with large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon across southeast NM.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Bring on the rain -- just not too much in vulnerable places. Today through Tuesday continues to look wet and we hope it will put a dent in fire weather concerns later this week, but it also brings concerns about burn scar flash flooding.

Per satellite imagery, the weak upper level low is beginning to take shape this morning across SoCal and upper level divergence is evident over eastern AZ and western NM. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been ongoing across SE AZ and these showers will persist through the overnight period, gradually moving further into NM as the upper level low shifts eastward. Western NM will be favored for precipitation through the noon hour, then showers and thunderstorms will expand to most areas through the afternoon. Through the afternoon, storms will be most numerous along and west of the Central Mountain Chain coincident with the strongest forcing. With PWATs increasing, there will be potential for locally heavy rainfall. In fact, it's still expected that the 00Z ABQ sounding will be near a record PWAT for the date/time. As the atmosphere gets worked over by several rounds of storms and becomes increasingly saturated and stable, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should wane and good soaking rains will prevail. It's expected that the most widespread precipitation will shift eastward during the evening and overnight hours eventually focusing over eastern NM. At least isolated thunderstorms will persist through the overnight hours in this area.

There will not be much of a break in the action, if any, across eastern NM before Tuesday's round of thunderstorms develops. That said, there is still concern about how much instability will be present for thunderstorm develop Tuesday given expected cloud cover, but all models suggest the area will destabilize quickly Tuesday afternoon. Since there will be more breaks in the clouds further west over the high terrain, it's likely storms will develop there initially, mainly along and east of the ContDvd, then storms will become more numerous as they shift eastward across eastern NM. Modest MLCAPE and shear will keep the severe potential low, but can't rule out a severe storm or two along and east of the Central Mtn Chain and south of I-40.

While most of us are ready for some rain, it does increase concerns for flooding around recent burn scars. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from noon through midnight for the South Central Mountains, including the South Fork and Seven Cabins burn scars, as well as the downstream impacts from any rainfall on the Salt burn scar. Southerly flow is on tap through at least mid afternoon, and this storm motion generally keeps the heaviest precipitation off the South Fork burn scar for storms that develop over Sierra Blanca. However, southerly flow will not be as favorable for the Seven Cabins fire as any storm that develops over the Capitan Mtns will shift over the burn scar in the same direction that the water will be moving through the canyons. More widespread precipitation looks to move over the burn scars between 5pm and 8pm, though heavy downpours will not be as likely given aforementioned expected saturation and stabilization. Nonetheless, repeated rounds of precipitation may cause flooding concerns this afternoon and evening. Even if no flooding occurs, this will prime the area for Tuesday when additional rainfall, potentially heavy, is expected in the afternoon. Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 137 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Storms will gradually come to an end Tuesday night as they shift eastward into west Texas. Conditions should be rather quiet after the midnight hour.

On Wednesday, an upper level low that had been sagging southward across the PacNW will reach Central CA/western NV. A dry slot rounding the low will push into western and central NM and strong mixing will erode any low level moisture and drop dewpoints into the teens and low 20s. Southerly to south-southwesterly breezes will also return. Meanwhile, the moisture will not fully mix out across eastern NM and a boundary draped over far northeast NM will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Isolated storms may also develop further south along the Texas border. Low level moisture will diurnally slosh back toward the Central Mtn Chain Wednesday night.

Dry and breezy conditions will persist across western and central NM on Thursday as the now double-barrelled low moves little. Though moisture will persist across eastern NM, shortwave ridging over eastern NM will limit the amount of thunderstorm coverage. The upper low will eject northeastward on Friday. Little change will be noted across western and central areas, but an attendant shortwave to the main upper low will push over NM and spark more thunderstorm activity across eastern NM. Confidence is lower for the weekend, but weak flow will prevail aloft, limiting forcing for storms on Saturday. However, a backdoor front on Sunday could spark numerous thunderstorms across eastern NM.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Light rain showers have shifted into western NM this morning and these will continue through noon with embedded isolated thunderstorms developing with time. Thereafter, showers and thunderstorms will expand across most areas through the afternoon and evening. The main focus area for precipitation will be along and near the Rio Grande Valley late this afternoon and early evening before shifting eastward over eastern areas overnight. VFR cigs will lower today with occasional MVFR vsbys in stronger storms. Overnight, areas of MVFR cigs may develop near or just east of the Central Mountain Chain, with MVFR vsbys continuing in the heavier showers. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm. Precipitation will persist through sunrise across eastern NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Widespread wetting precipitation remains on tap for today through Tuesday. Areas most likely to miss out on wetting precipitation remain across western NM, but some areas across eastern NM could see over an inch of precipitation. Dry and breezy conditions will return to western and central NM on Wednesday and Thursday. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon, but precipitation today and Tuesday may help mitigate concerns. These conditions may continue into Friday but confidence is not as high. Highest chance for reaching spotty critical thresholds would be Thursday. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across eastern NM Wednesday through Friday, though the least coverage will occur on Thursday. Mainly quiet conditions on Saturday, then a backdoor cold front could bring numerous thunderstorms to eastern NM on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 49 77 47 / 20 50 30 5 Dulce........................... 78 42 71 38 / 60 70 50 20 Cuba............................ 75 43 71 43 / 50 60 40 20 Gallup.......................... 71 39 74 38 / 70 30 20 5 El Morro........................ 67 41 71 41 / 80 50 20 10 Grants.......................... 72 41 74 40 / 70 60 30 10 Quemado......................... 69 43 73 42 / 80 50 20 5 Magdalena....................... 72 48 71 48 / 70 70 60 20 Datil........................... 67 44 71 43 / 80 60 30 10 Reserve......................... 76 40 78 38 / 80 20 20 0 Glenwood........................ 82 44 83 43 / 70 20 10 0 Chama........................... 72 39 64 37 / 60 60 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 75 50 69 50 / 60 70 50 20 Pecos........................... 77 45 68 42 / 70 80 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 74 46 66 43 / 50 70 50 20 Red River....................... 67 39 59 36 / 60 60 60 40 Angel Fire...................... 70 36 62 33 / 60 70 60 40 Taos............................ 77 45 69 42 / 50 70 50 20 Mora............................ 74 45 64 41 / 60 70 80 30 Espanola........................ 83 49 75 47 / 50 70 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 76 50 70 48 / 60 70 40 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 49 74 46 / 60 70 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 55 76 53 / 70 60 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 54 77 54 / 60 50 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 49 79 48 / 60 50 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 53 78 52 / 60 50 30 20 Belen........................... 82 50 79 49 / 60 60 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 82 52 78 51 / 60 60 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 82 48 79 47 / 60 50 40 20 Corrales........................ 82 51 79 51 / 60 60 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 82 49 79 48 / 60 50 30 20 Placitas........................ 78 54 74 52 / 70 70 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 81 53 77 52 / 60 60 30 20 Socorro......................... 83 54 81 54 / 60 60 50 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 49 70 47 / 70 70 40 20 Tijeras......................... 76 50 72 48 / 70 60 30 20 Edgewood........................ 76 48 70 44 / 70 80 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 43 72 39 / 70 80 60 20 Clines Corners.................. 74 46 66 44 / 70 80 60 30 Mountainair..................... 76 46 72 44 / 70 70 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 75 46 71 44 / 70 70 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 79 52 74 51 / 70 70 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 73 46 67 45 / 80 80 70 20 Capulin......................... 76 44 65 42 / 40 40 60 40 Raton........................... 80 46 69 44 / 40 50 70 40 Springer........................ 81 47 70 44 / 40 50 70 40 Las Vegas....................... 76 47 65 43 / 60 80 70 40 Clayton......................... 84 51 72 48 / 40 40 60 50 Roy............................. 80 49 68 46 / 50 60 70 50 Conchas......................... 87 52 74 50 / 60 70 70 50 Santa Rosa...................... 84 51 71 48 / 60 80 60 40 Tucumcari....................... 89 53 75 51 / 70 70 70 50 Clovis.......................... 86 53 72 51 / 60 70 70 50 Portales........................ 88 54 75 51 / 60 80 70 40 Fort Sumner..................... 87 52 74 50 / 50 80 70 40 Roswell......................... 91 57 76 54 / 30 80 60 30 Picacho......................... 83 51 72 48 / 50 80 80 20 Elk............................. 80 48 72 46 / 60 80 80 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.