textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Storms with lightning and erratic wind gusts will favor locations east of the central mountain chain this evening, the south-central mountains and adjacent east slopes Wednesday, then central and western New Mexico during the latter half of the week.

- Rich monsoon moisture may result in localized flash flooding over central and western areas each afternoon and even during the latter half of the week. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Drier air will continue to filter over the area from the west this evening and Wednesday. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger this evening mainly east of the central mountain chain, and also along the east slopes of the western and south central mountains. Spotty convection on Wednesday afternoon will favor the southern tier of mountains, and potentially as far north as Clines Corners. Models indicate there will be some virga showers on Wednesday afternoon, with little more than sprinkles and gusty winds at the surface, mainly along and south of I-40, and potentially northward along the east slopes of the Sandia and Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the CO border. Most of these cells will move toward the northeast around 10-20 mph. A few of the stronger cells may produce erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph. Compared to the cool readings over central areas today, highs on Wednesday should climb a few to several degrees.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The mid-level high pressure system aloft will start out centered over North Carolina Thursday, then migrate westward to NM's eastern border with TX by Saturday, before drifting a little farther east on Monday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will remain stalled over the Pacific northwest coast until Monday, when it will begin to drift inland. Models depict this setup drawing another surge of monsoon moisture northward over AZ and western NM starting over southwest parts of the forecast area Thursday, then over more of central and western NM with increased thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity Friday and Saturday. After PWATs bottom out over northwest areas around 0.50-0.75" on Wednesday, they will climb around 1.10-1.40" across the forecast area by Friday, then remain elevated through Monday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall each afternoon mainly west of the Rio Grande, and at times over the central mountain chain as well. Some days will be more convectively active than others, depending on when disturbances embedded in the monsoon flow track northward over the forecast area. At this time, the GFS, which often does a good job forecasting such disturbances, indicates disturbances will cross western NM both Friday and Sunday. We'll monitor the timing of these disturbances with future model runs. Also, the movement of cutoff upper level low pressure systems like the one over the Pacific northwest are notoriously difficult to predict. So, the strength of the monsoon moisture plume over the forecast area early next week could be weaker or stronger than currently forecast depending on if or when the upper low actually shifts inland over the the northwest US.

After continued warming Thursday, the increased monsoon moisture should cause high temperatures to trend downward at the end of the week, and potentially into early next week as well.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Isolated to scattered storms continue across eastern NM as of 00z, while dwindling in strength. However, a few gusts up to 35kts may be observed with any direct hits to terminals. These storms are likely to move into TX and/or diminish in strength fully by 03z. A few stray showers across the central Rio Grande Valley may produce brief wind gusts up to 25kts through 02z. After precipitation subsides early overnight, light winds will persist at TAF sites. Isolated convection is slated to develop along the high terrain of southern NM tomorrow afternoon. Confidence in impacts to any TAF site is too low to include in the TAF except of KROW, which may see outflow winds from storms along the Sacramento Mountains along with isolated storm development.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Since minimum humidities will remain above 15 percent for the next week, erratic thunderstorm outflows will continue to be the main fire weather concern each afternoon and evening. A few storms may be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph this evening, and each afternoon and evening through Monday. In addition, a few of the gusty virga showers on Wednesday will also be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 85 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 50 84 52 85 / 0 5 0 5 El Morro........................ 51 82 52 82 / 0 10 5 40 Grants.......................... 53 86 55 85 / 5 10 5 40 Quemado......................... 54 82 55 82 / 0 10 5 50 Magdalena....................... 59 84 60 84 / 20 10 5 50 Datil........................... 54 81 55 80 / 10 10 10 60 Reserve......................... 53 90 53 89 / 10 10 5 40 Glenwood........................ 57 94 58 94 / 10 10 5 20 Chama........................... 47 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 82 60 83 / 10 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 55 85 57 86 / 10 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 81 53 82 / 0 10 0 0 Red River....................... 43 73 45 74 / 0 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 79 38 80 / 10 10 0 10 Taos............................ 49 85 51 86 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 83 52 84 / 10 10 0 20 Espanola........................ 56 90 58 90 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 59 85 61 86 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 88 59 89 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 93 68 93 / 10 5 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 93 65 93 / 10 5 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 95 64 95 / 10 5 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 68 93 / 10 5 0 5 Belen........................... 61 94 64 94 / 10 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 64 94 66 94 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 60 93 62 94 / 10 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 64 94 66 95 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 93 64 94 / 10 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 64 90 66 91 / 20 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 93 67 93 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 96 69 96 / 10 5 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 87 61 87 / 20 5 0 5 Tijeras......................... 60 87 62 88 / 20 5 0 5 Edgewood........................ 55 89 58 89 / 20 10 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 90 55 91 / 20 10 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 57 86 59 87 / 20 20 0 10 Mountainair..................... 57 88 59 88 / 10 10 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 57 87 59 88 / 10 10 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 63 91 64 91 / 10 10 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 57 83 59 84 / 10 20 5 50 Capulin......................... 54 85 56 86 / 20 10 0 0 Raton........................... 50 89 52 89 / 10 10 0 10 Springer........................ 51 91 52 91 / 20 10 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 64 93 65 95 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 57 90 58 91 / 30 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 64 98 67 99 / 20 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 63 93 65 94 / 20 10 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 66 97 70 99 / 30 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 67 98 70 99 / 10 10 10 10 Portales........................ 68 98 70 100 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 66 97 69 99 / 20 10 5 0 Roswell......................... 70 100 72 101 / 10 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 62 93 64 94 / 10 30 5 30 Elk............................. 58 91 61 92 / 20 30 5 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.