textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as well as the Ruidoso-area burn scars where there will be a moderate risk of flash flooding each day.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Monsoon moisture with PWATs around 1-1.4" will remain in place over the forecast area through Wednesday with daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms generally along and west of the central mountain chain. Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts more subsident and drier air continuing to wrap around a broad 596 dam high pressure system over CO and into north central and eastern NM, where it will be hard for robust convection to develop today. The center of high pressure aloft is forecast to drift over OK and north TX for Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low pressure system will help spark robust convection as it tracks slowly westward over the southern NM border today and Tuesday, then northward over the western NM border on Wednesday. A few storms will probably produce locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour with a risk of isolated flash flooding each afternoon and evening, mainly over western areas and potentially also the south central mountains. NBM's 90th percentile QPF indicates a 10 percent chance that a few cells will produce over 2 inches of rainfall today, most likely over the southwest mountains. That said, storms should speed up today moving westward around 15 to 30 mph, which will reduce the risk of flash flooding a little compared to previous days; except where cells manage to train. Down around Ruidoso, high res models depict storms developing over the high terrain of the Sacramento Mountains today, mostly above recent burn scars, then tracking westward around 10-20 mph. Although we will forgo issuing another Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso-area scars today, there is still a moderate risk of flash flooding due to uncertainty over the precise location of convective initiation. The moderate risk of flash flooding will continue for the recent burn scars of the south-central mountains Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures each day will generally vary from around 6 degrees below 1991-2020 averages to around 8 degrees above the averages. The warmest differences from average will be over northeast NM.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

There will be a downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as the center of high pressure aloft migrates westward near the NM/TX border. There will probably then be an uptick in storm coverage from the northern mountains eastward on Friday as a disturbance clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft sends a moist backdoor front into the state and nudges the upper high pressure center southwestward over southern NM. Northwest flow aloft is notorious for producing strong to severe storms over northeast and east central NM, and there will probably be at least a few of these on Friday afternoon and evening. The weekend ahead should continue to be convectively active thanks to moisture introduced by Friday's backdoor front. In addition, there are signs in some models that the disturbance that clips northeast NM on Friday will at least partially drift eastward over NM Saturday and Sunday as the upper high pressure center drifts to the north and west of the state.

With the upper high gradually moving overhead, high temperatures will trend warmer during the latter half of the week and the weekend. High temperatures will reach the low 100s across the east central and southeast plains each afternoon starting Wednesday and more-so Thursday, and around 100 in the central valley starting Friday, creating moderate to major heat risk at lower elevations from the central valley eastward.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

This afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over western parts of the forecast area and the south central mountains, with spottier activity farther north along the central mountain chain and central valley. Storms will generally move toward the west around 10-25 KT. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 45 KT. After midnight, high res models depict isolated and light showers and thunderstorms lingering for a few hours along and west of the continental divide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

With seasonably rich monsoon moisture in place, the main fire weather concerns over the next seven days will be strong and erratic thunderstorm outflow, as well as lightning. Wetting rainfall will be most likely along and west of the central mountain chain each day, except for today when storms will struggle to become very strong over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and upper Rio Grande Valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 96 66 95 67 / 5 30 30 80 Dulce........................... 94 54 93 54 / 10 20 30 60 Cuba............................ 88 59 87 58 / 30 30 50 50 Gallup.......................... 89 58 87 57 / 40 60 60 60 El Morro........................ 82 56 82 57 / 70 50 50 50 Grants.......................... 88 57 87 58 / 50 40 40 30 Quemado......................... 82 57 81 56 / 80 60 70 60 Magdalena....................... 85 62 83 63 / 30 20 50 30 Datil........................... 82 57 79 58 / 60 40 60 40 Reserve......................... 87 55 85 55 / 80 50 90 70 Glenwood........................ 89 56 88 57 / 90 50 80 80 Chama........................... 87 53 86 52 / 10 10 30 50 Los Alamos...................... 87 64 86 65 / 5 10 40 40 Pecos........................... 87 56 87 58 / 10 10 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 87 56 86 57 / 10 5 10 20 Red River....................... 79 48 77 49 / 10 5 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 83 43 81 45 / 10 5 20 20 Taos............................ 90 56 90 56 / 10 5 20 20 Mora............................ 85 54 83 55 / 10 5 20 30 Espanola........................ 95 65 94 64 / 5 5 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 88 62 88 63 / 20 10 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 61 91 61 / 10 10 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 66 92 66 / 20 10 40 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 69 93 68 / 20 10 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 66 94 65 / 20 10 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 68 93 67 / 20 10 40 40 Belen........................... 94 65 93 64 / 20 10 40 30 Bernalillo...................... 95 67 94 67 / 10 10 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 93 63 92 62 / 20 10 40 30 Corrales........................ 95 67 94 67 / 20 10 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 93 64 92 64 / 20 10 40 30 Placitas........................ 90 67 91 66 / 20 10 30 40 Rio Rancho...................... 94 68 93 67 / 20 10 40 40 Socorro......................... 94 68 93 68 / 20 10 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 61 86 61 / 30 10 30 30 Tijeras......................... 88 61 87 61 / 30 10 30 30 Edgewood........................ 88 58 88 58 / 30 10 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 55 89 55 / 20 10 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 85 57 85 58 / 10 5 30 20 Mountainair..................... 87 58 86 58 / 40 10 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 85 58 84 58 / 50 10 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 85 63 84 64 / 60 20 70 30 Ruidoso......................... 78 57 80 59 / 70 20 70 20 Capulin......................... 89 57 87 58 / 10 5 5 20 Raton........................... 94 57 92 57 / 10 5 10 30 Springer........................ 93 58 93 59 / 5 5 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 87 58 88 58 / 5 5 10 30 Clayton......................... 96 66 97 66 / 0 5 5 20 Roy............................. 90 62 90 63 / 0 5 0 20 Conchas......................... 96 66 97 67 / 0 5 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 91 64 91 65 / 0 5 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 97 67 99 69 / 0 5 0 20 Clovis.......................... 92 66 95 68 / 0 5 5 5 Portales........................ 93 66 96 68 / 10 5 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 93 66 95 68 / 0 5 5 10 Roswell......................... 94 69 98 71 / 10 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 87 63 89 64 / 30 10 30 10 Elk............................. 82 59 85 60 / 60 20 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.