textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over the east central and southeast plains of NM through this evening.

- A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over the far northeast plains NM through Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Chances for thunderstorms will trend back up early next week, peaking on Tuesday across eastern NM where severe storms can not be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

A filling upper level trough over the Desert SW is providing weak forcing over the region and a backdoor cold front is providing additional forcing along the central mountain chain and across the northern mountains. An area of low stratus across eastern NM behind the backdoor front has been slow to erode and the airmass is relatively stable, which is directly correlated with the current lack of convection across our area. However, the latest CAMs show convection taking off late this afternoon and continuing into the evening hours over north central and southeast NM. Surface dewpoint temps are fairly low in the 20s and 30s across north central NM, so convection will be high based and favor strong/erratic wind gusts. In contrast, storms across southeast NM will be in a higher PWAT atmosphere with dewpoint temps in the 50s, so will be more capable of deeper convection with heavy downpours. The SPC has the southeast and east central plains of NM in a day1 marginal risk area and the latest RAP shows sbCAPE approaching 2,000J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts between 00-02Z near and west of Roswell. Convection will follow a fairly normal diurnal downtrend this evening, but a few elevated storms may continue overnight across northeast NM. A gusty east canyon wind will redevelop this evening at KABQ, but is forecast to be short-lived and trend down rapidly after midnight.

An upper low dropping southeast from the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies on Thursday will steer drier westerlies over NM, increasing moisture convergence over eastern NM Thursday afternoon. Increasing southerly low level flow across eastern NM in response to the approaching upper low will provide favorable veering wind profiles while warmer conditions bring increased instability for a round of strong to potentially severe storms Thursday afternoon evening across the eastern plains. The closer to the TX/OK borders the greater the severe probabilities, which are still low at this time.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Dry westerly flow aloft will persist Friday as the upper low ejects east out of the central Rockies. The ejecting low will push a cold front south into northeast NM Friday, providing a focus for convective initiation Friday afternoon/evening. The cold front will continue backing through central NM Friday night and will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV by early Saturday morning. The infusion of moisture from the backdoor front will be sufficient to fuel a round of daytime heating triggered convection across the area on Saturday afternoon, although storms west of the central mountain chain will be moisture challenged and likely favor strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting (>0.10") rainfall. Easterly low level upslope forcing along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos south to the Central Highlands will help to provide a more robust round of convection Saturday afternoon, with storms moving east-southeast into the evening hours. Sufficient shear and instability are forecast Saturday afternoon/evening over this area for at least a limited threat of severe thunderstorms. An upper level ridge will amplify over the region Sunday, but sufficient moisture will linger for daytime heating triggered convection that will favor the northern mountains and northeast NM. The combination of a weak Pacific low approaching from over SoCal and a northern stream trough/low dropping southeast from the Pacific NW will combine to bring increasing chances for showers and storms early next week, peaking across eastern NM on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas of MVFR cigs prevail behind a backdoor cold front across eastern NM at mid day, but improvement to VFR is forecast at KROW by 20Z. KROW may be impacted by MVFR conditions in thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, but low probabilities at this time. High probabilities exist for MVFR conditions in low stratus/fog across eastern NM tonight into Thursday morning, with low probabilities for IFR conditions. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. Gusty winds are forecast through the period and the east canyon wind at KABQ is forecast to come back for several hours beginning around 03Z. However, gusts are forecast to remain below Airport Weather Warning threshold.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least Sunday. Dry and windy conditions prevail along/west of the RGV this afternoon, where elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions exist. Higher humidity and cooler temperatures prevail along/east of the central mountain chain thanks to a backdoor cold front. Chances for wetting showers and storms will trend up late this afternoon/evening along and east of the central mountain chain, while any convection that develops to the west will be of the drier variety and favor strong/erratic winds. Drier westerlies will gradually work east across the state through Friday, with low chances for wetting storms that will favor the eastern plains. Another backdoor cold front will boost humidity across eastern and central NM Friday night into Saturday, bringing a round of wetting storms along/east of the central mountain chain. Storms that develop west of the central mountain chain on Saturday will be of the drier variety and favor strong/erratic wind gusts with potential for lightning ignitions. An approaching upper level trough early next week will bring renewed chances for showers and storms favoring eastern NM. The trough will bring increasing winds and critical fire weather conditions may develop Mon/Tue across western NM, but probabilities are low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 41 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 34 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 40 75 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 36 77 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 73 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 39 77 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 44 73 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 79 39 81 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 42 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 34 69 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 49 74 50 75 / 10 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 74 41 75 / 30 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 70 40 70 / 10 5 0 0 Red River....................... 35 60 34 61 / 10 10 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 31 66 29 66 / 20 20 0 5 Taos............................ 40 74 38 75 / 10 5 0 0 Mora............................ 42 70 41 72 / 30 20 0 5 Espanola........................ 46 80 46 81 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 75 46 76 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 78 44 80 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 81 54 82 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 48 85 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 83 51 85 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 84 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 50 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 80 52 81 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 76 48 76 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 78 49 78 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 78 46 79 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 79 39 80 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 74 45 76 / 20 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 77 47 78 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 79 54 81 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 71 52 73 / 10 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 68 41 67 / 50 40 20 30 Raton........................... 42 72 41 73 / 50 30 10 20 Springer........................ 44 75 41 78 / 40 30 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 43 73 42 75 / 40 10 0 5 Clayton......................... 47 71 48 74 / 50 50 30 30 Roy............................. 46 73 46 77 / 50 20 10 20 Conchas......................... 50 82 49 85 / 40 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 49 80 47 84 / 30 10 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 51 81 52 86 / 30 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 51 79 52 87 / 20 30 20 5 Portales........................ 52 80 52 89 / 20 30 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 51 83 50 88 / 20 20 10 5 Roswell......................... 55 87 55 92 / 10 20 10 0 Picacho......................... 50 82 53 85 / 10 10 0 5 Elk............................. 48 79 51 81 / 10 10 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.