textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 519 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds will redevelop today and Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph being common. Higher gusts to 40 mph will be focused over northeastern New Mexico.

- Light rain becomes more confined to northwestern and southeastern New Mexico today and Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures and gusty winds will accompany a cold front Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are waning across eastern NM, and a notable dry slot can be seen on water vapor, approaching the Land of Enchantment from the southwest. Upstream, a new low has taken shape over WA/OR with additional pressure falls carving out a deep trough through southern CA and the nearby eastern Pacific waters. Southwesterlies aloft will remain fairly strong into NM today with another lee-side surface cyclone establishing over eastern CO. The 700 mb winds are modeled to range between 20 to 35 kt over NM through the afternoon which may serve as a good surface gust proxy, although northeastern areas could exceed this given their proximity to the surface low. The southwesterlies and incoming dry slot will send PWATs tumbling to 0.5 to 0.6 inch in many zones, however the far southeastern plains will retain values of an inch or more. The lack of moisture, and much more stable conditions will limit showers and storms, even in the southeast where better moisture will reside. Any large scale ascent from the upstream trough looks to be rather weak, only accounting for scant showers in northwestern to north central zones today. Temperatures will cool a couple to a few degrees in most western and central zones today while the far eastern plains hold near persistence. Boundary layer mixing will decouple rather quickly around sunset for most mid to lower elevations, but a few peaks and ridges will retain gusts into tonight.

For Tuesday, the low over WA/OR will move into UT with double vort lobes being modeled as well as a stout southwesterly jet preceding it (east of the Four Corners). This will steer more of the broadening dry slot into NM while southwesterlies aloft strengthen a bit more (700 mb speeds rising to 25 to 45 kt in many zones), especially in northeastern portions of the state. The lee-side surface low will regenerate, but it will sag closer to the northeast corner of NM in response to a surface front approaching from the northeast. The slight increase in speeds aloft and reduction in surface gradient essentially look to offset each other with another fairly similar wind forecast for Tuesday and surface gusts of 25 to 35 mph being common. The upper low in UT will generate enough increased upward forcing for more showers over northwestern NM on Tuesday, but it appears too stable for much in the way of thunder. Pressure heights will decline a couple decameters, leading to more cooling. This will put western zones 5 to 10 degrees below normal, central zones near average, and eastern plains zones at 5 to 10 degrees above climatology Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Confidence is growing that the upper low will move into CO Wednesday into Wednesday night, however the ECMWF/EPS solutions are still more sluggish as a result of its weaker depiction of the polar jet in Canada. Additional light showers would graze over the NM-CO border Wednesday, but a slower movement of the low, as the ECMWF suggests, would be more inclined to draw more moisture from west TX back into far eastern NM, perhaps with enough instability for a few storms. This seems to be an outlier scenario, and the forecast has left things dry in far eastern NM for Wednesday afternoon for now. The first seasonal freeze will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning for some northern and western zones

The CO low looks to fill in and partially merge with another trough to the north over Ontario into Thursday, however there is also good model consensus that another low will separate from the CO cyclone. This low over the southwest would quickly cut itself off from the polar jet, but the operational ECMWF continues to suggest a much more dramatic evolution with a deeper overall low Thursday into Friday that would drag much more moisture into NM from the east. There is consensus on the arrival of cooler air from the east/northeast, but the moisture and resultant QPF remain the main point of debate, mainly from the ECMWF operational runs, as the EPS ensemble mean and median are much more subdued with respect to PWATs and QPF. Cooler than normal daytime temperatures have been built into the forecast Thursday into the weekend in association with a significant frontal passage, and low 10-20% POPs are also in most periods. The winds entering behind the front on Thursday into early Friday will also be gusty and impactful, but its a bit too far out to nail down the speeds with much certainty. For now, gusts of 35 to 50 mph seem reasonable across much of the plains and into the favored gaps/canyons within the central mountain chain. The potential for additional freezing temperatures will expand (northeast highlands and Estancia valley to name a couple of areas) more into Friday night and Saturday morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Fairly moist conditions are found in the lowest layers of the atmosphere early this morning with some low clouds and very localized ground fog (at K0E0). Any MVFR to IFR ceilings/visibilities will be very spotty and localized through 12/1500UTC (8 AM MDT) with VFR being the rule otherwise. Winds will strengthen again from the southwest through the late morning, but speeds are not forecast to be quite as strong as they were on Sunday. Still, gusts of 25 to 35 kt will be somewhat common with northeastern areas (KLVS, KRTN, and KCAO) observing a few gusts closer to 40 kt. Any showers today will be very minimal, staying mostly in north central to far northwestern New Mexico, and any lightning is modeled to largely stay northwest of the Four Corners. Winds will decrease quickly in lower elevations around sunset this evening, but a few ridges and mountain peaks may remain gusty overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Another low pressure system taking shape upstream will keep breezy to windy conditions over much of northern and central NM today and Tuesday. Peak afternoon gusts should tend to stay in a 25 to 35 mph range with locally higher speeds of 40 mph in northeastern zones. Fortunately, afternoon humidity values of 25 to 35 percent will hold through today and Tuesday, preventing any critical fire weather concerns. Showers and thunderstorms will also be fewer in number today and Tuesday with generally just light showers over northwestern to north central zones. The aforementioned low pressure system will move into CO into Wednesday before splitting with a cut- off segment wandering slowly to the west of NM into the late part of the week and weekend. After additional light showers near the NM-CO border Wednesday, cooler air looks to spill in from the northeast Thursday into the weekend. This cooler air will be accompanied by gusty winds, but humidity is projected to stay above critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 71 51 62 46 / 20 30 50 40 Dulce........................... 64 42 59 39 / 40 30 60 60 Cuba............................ 67 44 61 41 / 10 5 10 20 Gallup.......................... 66 43 61 38 / 5 20 40 30 El Morro........................ 65 41 62 37 / 0 5 10 20 Grants.......................... 70 44 65 41 / 0 0 5 10 Quemado......................... 66 44 64 40 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 72 49 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 66 43 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 67 45 64 41 / 20 10 10 5 Glenwood........................ 71 49 68 45 / 30 10 20 5 Chama........................... 60 41 55 38 / 40 40 60 50 Los Alamos...................... 68 49 64 46 / 10 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 69 45 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 44 61 42 / 20 5 10 10 Red River....................... 56 37 53 35 / 20 10 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 33 59 30 / 20 5 5 5 Taos............................ 68 44 64 42 / 20 5 5 5 Mora............................ 69 41 67 39 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 74 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 69 48 66 44 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 47 69 44 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 54 73 50 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 54 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 53 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 53 73 49 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 79 51 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 78 52 75 50 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 79 50 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 79 53 74 50 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 79 50 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 53 72 50 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 78 53 73 51 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 81 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 48 67 46 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 72 50 69 47 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 73 48 70 47 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 72 48 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 71 49 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 76 56 74 52 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 50 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 73 49 71 44 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 77 44 74 42 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 78 46 76 41 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 71 47 69 43 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 82 58 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 77 53 75 49 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 86 58 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 81 56 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 87 60 86 57 / 0 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 87 61 86 59 / 5 30 5 10 Portales........................ 88 62 87 59 / 5 20 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 85 60 85 56 / 0 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 90 62 90 60 / 0 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 56 84 53 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 82 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.