textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening and again Thursday.

- Locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding will accompany storms mainly thru east-central NM this evening and late Thursday.

- Record and near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 128 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The 598dm H5 monsoon high is centered over the Gila NF and west- central NM with the 18Z ABQ sounding measuring a healthy 0.98" PWAT. Given the proximity of the center of H5 high however, any afternoon storms developing over the high terrain along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will be fairly short-lived with slow motions and small wetting footprints. The 18Z ABQ UA sounding also measured 1254 J/kg of DCAPE, which alongside the widespread 40-50F will support strong gusty and erratic winds emanating from this isolated to scattered activity thru central and western NM this afternoon and early evening. Meanwhile, there is a marginal risk of storms rolling southeastward off the Sangre de Cristo's becoming strong to severe thru the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Storms will threaten large hail, frequent lightning, and strong outflow winds with modest southeasterly return flow at the surface providing higher moisture and SBCAPE of 1000-1700 J/kg underlying modest northwesterly flow aloft producing 25-30kts of 0-6km bulk shear. These cells will conglomerate and cluster over east-central NM stretching from Clayton southward to Clovis and Portales this evening, producing locally heavy rainfall as they go. Surface outflow from this convective activity is also expected to surge thru the gaps of the central mountain chain producing east canyon winds at Santa Fe and ABQ again this evening, not expected to last as long thru the night however.

Thursday and Friday see little change to the overall setup with slower moving isolated to scattered storms developing over the high terrain of western NM with longer lasting and strong storms rolling S/SE off the central mountain chain over the highlands. The subtle difference will be a strong N-S steering flow over eastern NM limiting how far east late afternoon and evening storms progress toward the TX border. This will also favor another round of strong east canyon winds pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and ABQ. Friday's subtle difference relative to Thursday will see shorter lived storms moving more S/SSW off the central mountain chain. All the while, high temperatures remain in the 70s/80s in the mountains with 90s to near 100F in the lower elevations.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The long term period beginning Saturday will see the monsoon high begin to slide eastward across NM with the start of a healthy monsoon plume of moisture advecting northward from the Gulf of CA into the Desert Southwest. This plume will focus over eastern AZ and western NM where scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms are favored to develop and move N/NE thru the late day and evening period. PWATs steadily climb upward to 1.10" to 1.20" which will yield healthy rain producing storms, in turn increasing the risk of flash flooding in poorly drained areas of western NM this weekend. The limiting factor will be fairly quick steering flow, steering storms at a 20-30mph clip. This will limit the flash flood threat mainly to areas of western NM seeing repeated rounds of thunderstorms. Drier and hotter conditions will be favored further east across eastern NM where highs will remain near the 100F.

Global model solutions are showing fair signals that the H5 high will expand back west over NM, reducing the influx of monsoonal moisture and raising temperatures again across central and western NM.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with a few possible exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible near storms this evening and again Thursday, especially storms that kick up dust as is the case near between KABQ and KONM this evening. Strong/erratic wind gusts to 45kts are possible with storms this evening. Outflow winds are forecast to hit KROW from the north around 03Z this evening, along with moderate probabilities for storms. Otherwise, winds will be light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Prevailing dry and hot conditions persist thru the next 7 days. The main weather pattern will see higher moisture and humidity across eastern NM alongside prevailing southerly winds at the surface thru Friday. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will be sparse across western NM and scattered to numerous along and east of the central mountain chain. This will begin to change Saturday as a monsoon plume of moisture pushes into the Desert Southwest and western NM, flipping the script to cooler and wetter conditions across western NM. Scattered to numerous storms training over the same areas will be the rule Saturday thru Monday across western NM, with dry and hot conditions further east toward TX. The Rio Grande Valley and areas immediately along the central mountain chain will remain in a buffer in between zone mainly defined by strong and erratic gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening periods.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 64 96 66 96 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 92 47 92 / 5 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 56 90 57 91 / 20 10 10 0 Gallup.......................... 57 91 59 91 / 5 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 56 87 57 87 / 10 10 5 20 Grants.......................... 58 90 59 90 / 10 20 5 20 Quemado......................... 60 89 60 89 / 10 10 10 30 Magdalena....................... 63 88 63 88 / 30 10 20 30 Datil........................... 60 86 59 86 / 20 20 20 40 Reserve......................... 59 96 59 95 / 10 20 10 50 Glenwood........................ 66 102 65 100 / 10 10 10 30 Chama........................... 51 85 51 86 / 5 30 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 86 61 87 / 40 40 20 30 Pecos........................... 56 87 56 88 / 50 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 84 53 86 / 30 20 10 10 Red River....................... 45 75 46 77 / 40 20 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 35 80 36 82 / 40 40 20 10 Taos............................ 52 87 52 90 / 30 20 10 5 Mora............................ 51 83 52 86 / 50 50 30 40 Espanola........................ 59 93 60 95 / 40 20 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 60 87 61 88 / 50 10 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 90 59 91 / 40 10 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 96 68 97 / 20 0 20 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 96 66 97 / 20 0 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 98 65 99 / 10 0 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 96 67 97 / 10 0 20 0 Belen........................... 64 97 65 98 / 20 0 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 97 66 98 / 20 0 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 98 63 98 / 10 0 20 0 Corrales........................ 65 98 66 99 / 20 0 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 97 65 98 / 10 0 20 0 Placitas........................ 64 93 65 94 / 20 0 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 97 66 97 / 20 0 20 0 Socorro......................... 70 100 70 99 / 20 5 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 90 60 90 / 20 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 60 91 62 91 / 20 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 56 91 57 92 / 20 10 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 93 55 93 / 20 10 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 87 57 88 / 30 20 30 5 Mountainair..................... 57 91 58 91 / 20 10 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 57 90 59 90 / 20 10 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 65 93 64 92 / 20 20 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 59 85 58 84 / 20 40 40 60 Capulin......................... 53 82 55 85 / 60 40 20 5 Raton........................... 52 85 52 88 / 50 40 30 10 Springer........................ 53 87 54 90 / 50 50 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 54 84 55 87 / 50 60 30 30 Clayton......................... 61 86 62 90 / 40 10 20 0 Roy............................. 57 85 58 88 / 50 10 20 5 Conchas......................... 63 93 64 96 / 50 5 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 90 62 92 / 50 10 40 0 Tucumcari....................... 63 93 64 95 / 50 5 30 0 Clovis.......................... 65 94 65 94 / 60 10 30 0 Portales........................ 66 95 65 94 / 60 10 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 95 65 96 / 50 0 40 0 Roswell......................... 69 98 69 98 / 40 0 30 0 Picacho......................... 62 93 61 93 / 20 20 50 10 Elk............................. 61 92 59 91 / 10 50 30 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.