textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 513 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern and central New Mexico through Friday, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings today and Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and small hail.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The squeeze play remains underway. High pressure to our east and a deep upper low over northern CA continue to draw subtropical moisture northward into NM with an anomalously high PWAT environment in place. This will lead to a couple more active days of afternoon thunderstorms that will transition into nocturnal stratiform rain.

Remnant rain and showers from last night will continue to exit the northwestern and north central areas of NM, and through the mid to late afternoon thunderstorms will initiate along the Continental Divide and central mountain chain where sufficient surface based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will be found. Steering flow will veer to more of a northeasterly heading today with cells speeding along at 20 to 25 mph. Training cells will remain a concern, as will the potential for a few anchored updrafts on south slopes of the higher terrain, and this will be combined with hefty rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The Land Information Systems soil moisture analysis indicates the ground is near saturation in many of these broader Continental Divide locations with a few splotchy areas also along the central mountain chain. This indicates those areas are primed for easier flash flooding from isolated heavy downpours through the early evening. Storms are projected to fill in between the Divide and the central mountain chain early this evening, and then gradually transition to more of a broad stratiform batch of rain oriented north-south either side of the Rio Grande. Rainfall rates will be at their heaviest during the convection through the early evening, reducing considerably through the overnight as more stratiform processes take over. Still, many areas along and either side of the Rio Grande will be susceptible to localized flash flooding, and the Flood Watch will continue through early Friday morning.

The upper low lifts into eastern OR and western ID on Friday, producing a bit more veering and strengthening in the winds aloft over NM. This had been modeled to introduce drier air into AZ and western NM, and while this is still the case, the surface dewpoints and PWATs still look to sufficiently hang on for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in far western NM zones. There will also be some weak upward forcing provided by the speed max aloft in association with the northwestern states low. POPs have been nudged upward a bit in far western zones to account for this, but the real focus still appears to be between the Continental Divide and central mountain chain where PWATs will be higher (1.0 to 1.3 inch). Storm motion would remain quick (15-25 mph) toward the northeast on Friday, but the introduction of more speed shear could lead to more vigorous updrafts and stronger cells Friday afternoon. Storms would fill into portions of the Rio Grande valley once again late in the afternoon and early evening Friday. With the slight veering in storm motion, cells would also have a higher likelihood of moving into the eastern plains, albeit with much less coverage than high terrain counterparts. Showers and storms are modeled to undergo a significant reduction in coverage through the late evening Friday, but south central to southeastern areas may have scattered cells that survive into the early morning hours Saturday as the right entrance region of the speed max aloft arrives.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The upper low will move into eastern ID and western WY on Saturday with a speed max aloft (50-60 kt at 300 mb) still overlaying eastern NM. This will introduce more dry air from the west which will lower the overall heavy rainfall threat in western and most of central NM, however an upper level trough axis will extend from the ID/WY low into the Four Corners, providing additional large scale ascent. This will still allow storms to develop over the Divide, but they will be higher-based and not as efficient at rainfall production. Deeper moisture and the speed max aloft of the south central mountains and east central plains will help produce more rain-efficient storms there Saturday afternoon.

The low will move farther east into the interface of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains on Sunday, filling in and weakening. As a result, lighter and drier westerly winds aloft will feed into NM, shutting down storm potential for most zones. The exception will be a backdoor front that will enter northeastern to east central NM, providing some low layer moisture advection and surface convergence for a few isolated storms.

The front looks to make a stronger push Sunday night into Monday, overtaking most of the eastern half of NM. Isolated to scattered storms would be favored behind this boundary where moisture would be more readily available Monday afternoon, and the coverage would increase through the evening. Through this time, our attention will also be drawn upstream toward a new Pacific low/trough that will be crossing and lifting northeast of the lower CO river basin while high pressure aloft settles near the TX coast. This will once again squeeze and draw moisture northward into NM, merging with what the backdoor boundary had already brought in from the northeast. While there are model discrepancies on how exactly the trough will evolve and move, there should be a southerly flow aloft over NM, leading to a more active storm period Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Along with the significant uptick in rainfall, a few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially on Tuesday when directional shear appears more favorable.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing localized IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds cover areas of northwestern, north- central, and south-central NM this hour. This activity is expected to shift eastward from KFMN-KGUP, and fill in a gap over the Rio Grande Valley from KSKX southward to KSAF and KABQ this evening. A secondary round of more numerous and widespread showers is also expected to push northward up the Rio Grande Valley overnight keeping rain going from KONM to KABQ northward to KSAF to about KSKX well overnight into Friday morning. A brief break will arrive to this area of central NM mid-to-late Friday morning before the afternoon round of thunderstorms gets going mainly along and west of the central mountain chain. These storms Friday afternoon will track northeastward, spreading over the highlands and portions of the eastern plains towards TX late Friday afternoon and evening. Have including a VCTS at KROW for this late Friday afternoon. Otherwise, abundant low level moisture will likely yield mist and low ceilings over portions of the area tonight into Friday morning, and amds may become necessary to address this.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A late, but active stretch of the monsoon will continue with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing today and Friday before starting to reduce some on Saturday. Soil moisture products indicate soaked grounds for many zones in western NM and a few in central areas of the state, and this is likely where the most beneficial fuel moisture has been received over the past few days. In addition to the soaking rainfall, excellent humidity recovery will continue tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning. Storm coverage and wetting rainfall potential starts to decrease in western zones Saturday along with the arrival of lower humidity. Drier air expands to most central and some eastern zones on Sunday, putting the kibosh on storms and lowering humidity more. Afternoon RH will fall to 15 to 25% in many zones Sunday. However, moisture returns to eastern NM late Sunday and more-so into Monday, reintroducing storm chances and boosting humidity. Another wet and potentially active, stormy pattern looks to unfold Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 79 53 80 / 50 60 40 20 Dulce........................... 46 73 41 77 / 90 70 50 20 Cuba............................ 51 72 47 76 / 80 70 40 30 Gallup.......................... 49 77 46 78 / 30 30 20 10 El Morro........................ 49 74 45 75 / 40 70 30 20 Grants.......................... 51 75 48 78 / 50 80 30 50 Quemado......................... 53 77 50 77 / 30 60 20 40 Magdalena....................... 57 75 53 76 / 70 80 50 60 Datil........................... 53 73 50 75 / 60 80 20 40 Reserve......................... 53 80 51 82 / 30 40 10 10 Glenwood........................ 58 86 57 88 / 40 40 10 5 Chama........................... 48 68 43 71 / 90 70 50 30 Los Alamos...................... 56 73 53 76 / 80 70 40 40 Pecos........................... 53 75 50 79 / 80 70 60 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 71 48 74 / 80 60 50 20 Red River....................... 44 65 40 68 / 70 60 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 39 69 35 72 / 60 60 30 20 Taos............................ 49 74 45 77 / 80 60 50 20 Mora............................ 50 75 48 78 / 70 50 40 20 Espanola........................ 55 78 51 81 / 70 70 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 56 74 54 77 / 80 80 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 76 51 78 / 80 70 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 78 58 80 / 70 50 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 78 59 81 / 70 60 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 80 54 82 / 70 60 50 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 78 58 82 / 70 50 40 20 Belen........................... 60 81 55 83 / 70 60 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 60 79 56 82 / 80 50 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 57 80 53 82 / 70 60 50 40 Corrales........................ 60 79 57 82 / 70 50 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 59 80 56 82 / 70 60 50 40 Placitas........................ 59 77 57 79 / 80 60 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 61 78 57 81 / 70 50 40 20 Socorro......................... 63 83 60 85 / 60 60 50 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 75 52 77 / 70 60 50 20 Tijeras......................... 58 76 54 78 / 70 60 50 20 Edgewood........................ 54 76 50 79 / 60 60 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 78 48 81 / 60 60 60 20 Clines Corners.................. 54 75 51 79 / 60 60 60 20 Mountainair..................... 56 77 52 79 / 50 60 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 57 77 53 80 / 50 60 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 61 81 59 83 / 40 50 50 20 Ruidoso......................... 54 76 53 80 / 50 70 60 50 Capulin......................... 54 79 50 80 / 20 30 20 20 Raton........................... 53 82 49 84 / 40 30 20 20 Springer........................ 55 84 50 86 / 40 30 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 77 50 80 / 60 60 30 20 Clayton......................... 63 88 61 88 / 5 5 20 10 Roy............................. 59 82 55 84 / 20 30 30 20 Conchas......................... 64 90 62 91 / 10 40 40 20 Santa Rosa...................... 63 86 60 87 / 20 60 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 66 91 63 91 / 10 20 40 20 Clovis.......................... 64 90 63 89 / 5 10 40 30 Portales........................ 66 92 65 92 / 5 10 50 40 Fort Sumner..................... 64 90 62 90 / 10 30 50 30 Roswell......................... 67 93 65 92 / 10 20 50 40 Picacho......................... 60 86 59 86 / 20 80 60 70 Elk............................. 58 83 58 84 / 20 60 50 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Friday for NMZ201>204-207-210>221-226.