textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty and erratic winds can be expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from storms across western New Mexico today and Monday. Flash flooding could result where storms train over the same area repeatedly.

- Above normal high temperatures will raise the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Per satellite imagery, the monsoon plume of moisture has become well-established across eastern AZ and western/north central NM. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight across these areas though precipitation amounts will remain minimal. However, there is a growing concern that this precipitation and resultant debris clouds will linger through the day on Sunday and prevent the area from destabilizing Sunday afternoon. In this scenario, the best chances for thunderstorms would exist on the periphery of the cloud cover (i.e. near the Four Corners and areas stretching from the SW Mtns to ABQ with a void in between). The latest RRFS is now showing this scenario and both the NAM and HRRR are starting to hint at it. If this looks like it is starting to play out today, we'll likely need to lower temps and PoPs where cloud cover persist. It does seem that surrounding convection will move into the cloudy area in the evening, bringing some hope for at least light rainfall. If the latest CAMs are incorrect and daytime heating is able to destabilize the area, storm coverage would be very similar to Saturday. In either scenario, storms today will again be capable of locally heavy rainfall, especially as PWATs continue to hover around 1 inch. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern, especially as storms move toward the Rio Grande Valley. Much like Saturday, dust may get kicked up and reduce visibility. Overall storm motion will be toward the east and northeast around 10 to 20 mph.

The 595dam H5 height near the OK/AR border today will shift even further east on Monday, though the pesky ridge axis will remain over the Bootheel to east central NM. However, heights will be lower than Saturday overall. Models continue to show a vort max emanating from convection in MX sliding northward near the AZ/NM border starting early Monday as it is squeezed between the ridge axis and a shortwave trough over CA/NV. Though abundant cloud cover will be associated with this feature, it may provide just enough ascent for a more robust crop of showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Central Mtn Chain as it crosses northwest NM in the afternoon. With H5 heights weakening, there will also be a slightly better chance of storms with wetting rainfall moving into the Rio Grande Valley. Storm motions will be toward the north and northeast around 15 to 25 mph. These quick motions will help mitigate any flooding threat, but may only aid gusty outflows. Showers and a few storms should again linger into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The main upper high center will remain east of NM Tuesday through Friday, though the ridge axis will continue to extend back westward into NM through the period. A stronger upper low off the coast of northern CA will increase southwest flow over NM. This flow will usher in significantly drier air above 600 mb across western NM and to some extent across central NM. This will disrupt or narrow the monsoon plume to be mainly over the Central Mtn Chain. Storm coverage should reduce across western NM, but should increase slightly along and just east of the Central Mtn Chain. The drier air will push farther into NM on Wednesday, disrupting the plume and lowering precipitation chances further. Will need to monitor these two days around Ruidoso. Though it's not a obvious or classic pattern for flooding there, can see some slow moving storms potentially causing some issues. Moisture advection should resume on Thursday, though modestly. This should allow for a few more storms than on Wednesday. All eyes will then be back on the upper high which seems to have an affinity for NM this year. Both operational models and their ensemble counterparts show the upper high moving toward NM on Friday and centering over NE NM on Saturday at around 595-597 dam. It would seem we are not done with the heat, yet. But before that happens, we might see some moisture peel off a tropical system southwest of the Baja Peninsula, temporarily increasing chances for precipitation Friday. Fingers crossed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Broken skies are accompanying a plume of monsoonal moisture across western and northwestern NM. Scattered showers within this plume with more robust thunderstorms favoring the edges of it along the Continental Divide are forecast this afternoon. Storms will threaten localized MVFR/IFR conditions, with more widespread gusty and erratic wind gusts. Another round of blowing dust accompanying these erratic wind gusts pushing into the middle Rio Grande Valley from KBRG to KABQ and KSAF is favored late this afternoon and evening. While a break in shower activity is forecast thru western NM around midnight, a secondary round is favored to reenter western and northwestern NM during the early morning period Monday. VFR with light to modest southerly to southeasterly prevailing winds is the rule for the eastern plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. A monsoon plume of moisture across the western half of the state will increase precipitation chances through Monday along and west of the Central Mtn Chain. Wetting rainfall, though spotty, is likely. Meanwhile, well above normal temperatures will persist across eastern NM. As drier air aloft pushes into western NM on Tuesday, storms will become more focused along and just east of the Central Mtn Chain. Drier air will continue to push into NM on Wednesday, further disrupting the monsoon plume and lowering precipitation chances. Moisture peeling off a tropical system southwest of the Baja Peninsula may slowly move into NM Thursday and moreso Friday. However, the upper high will also shift back toward NM Friday. After a break from the heat across western NM over the next few days, above normal temperatures should return by the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 87 62 79 57 / 40 40 60 50 Dulce........................... 85 50 81 47 / 20 40 50 50 Cuba............................ 84 57 80 54 / 40 40 40 50 Gallup.......................... 85 53 76 49 / 30 60 70 40 El Morro........................ 81 52 75 49 / 50 60 60 30 Grants.......................... 85 56 80 53 / 60 60 60 30 Quemado......................... 82 56 77 53 / 70 50 60 30 Magdalena....................... 86 61 84 59 / 50 20 40 40 Datil........................... 81 56 78 53 / 60 30 70 30 Reserve......................... 90 56 85 53 / 60 40 50 30 Glenwood........................ 95 61 90 56 / 30 40 20 30 Chama........................... 78 51 77 48 / 20 40 50 50 Los Alamos...................... 83 61 83 59 / 20 20 30 50 Pecos........................... 87 59 86 56 / 10 10 30 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 56 82 53 / 20 10 30 30 Red River....................... 74 48 74 46 / 20 10 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 80 41 79 39 / 20 20 30 40 Taos............................ 86 55 85 52 / 10 20 20 40 Mora............................ 85 55 83 52 / 20 10 20 40 Espanola........................ 91 61 91 58 / 20 20 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 87 63 86 60 / 10 10 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 61 89 57 / 10 10 20 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 68 93 66 / 10 10 20 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 66 93 63 / 20 10 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 65 95 62 / 20 20 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 67 93 65 / 20 20 20 40 Belen........................... 95 64 94 62 / 20 10 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 94 66 94 64 / 20 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 95 62 94 60 / 20 10 20 40 Corrales........................ 95 66 94 64 / 20 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 95 64 94 62 / 20 10 20 40 Placitas........................ 91 65 91 64 / 10 10 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 93 67 93 64 / 20 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 97 68 97 66 / 20 10 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 60 87 57 / 10 10 30 40 Tijeras......................... 89 62 87 59 / 10 10 30 40 Edgewood........................ 91 59 89 56 / 5 10 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 57 91 55 / 5 10 30 40 Clines Corners.................. 88 60 87 57 / 5 10 20 40 Mountainair..................... 90 58 89 56 / 5 10 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 90 60 89 56 / 5 10 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 92 63 / 10 10 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 85 57 / 20 10 30 20 Capulin......................... 88 58 86 58 / 10 20 20 20 Raton........................... 90 56 89 54 / 20 10 20 30 Springer........................ 94 57 92 56 / 10 10 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 89 57 87 57 / 10 10 10 30 Clayton......................... 97 68 95 66 / 5 10 0 5 Roy............................. 93 62 91 61 / 5 10 0 20 Conchas......................... 101 70 99 69 / 5 10 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 96 68 94 66 / 5 10 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 101 72 99 70 / 0 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 100 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 100 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 100 70 99 69 / 0 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 101 72 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 65 95 63 / 5 10 5 5 Elk............................. 95 62 93 60 / 10 5 10 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.