textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds thru far eastern NM will result from strong northerly to northeasterly winds gusting 35 to 50 mph early this morning, particularly Curry and Roosevelt Counties. - Thunderstorm activity will favor a few spots along and east of the central mountain chain today and Friday. There is a moderate risk of heavy rainfall on recent burn scars Friday near Ruidoso.

- A moderate heat risk remains for lower elevation areas of western and central NM each day where highs will regularly flirt with 100F. This risk returns to eastern NM this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Fairly mundane upper level flow remains over New Mexico tonight, with a long meridional troughing pattern still setup across the northern CONUS. An embedded shortwave within will send down a potent cold front thru eastern NM late tonight and Thursday morning. Surface pressure increases highlighted by a 3hr 4-5mb MSLP increase across eastern NM behind the front continues to support gusty northerly to northeasterly winds reaching 35 to 50 mph along the TX border. Curry and Roosevelt Counties remain the favored spot for the strongest wind gusts this morning where a Wind Advisory remains in effect.

The cold front banks up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts Thursday afternoon, with very welcomed CAA bringing temperatures down across the eastern half of the state. High temperatures are in fact forecast to fall 15F to 25F into the 70s and 80s across eastern NM, staying hot in the 80s and 90s along and west of the central mountain chain. Lower elevations at and south of ABQ to Socorro will flirt with the 100F mark again.

Meanwhile, increased moisture and easterly upslope flow will help spark a few isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms along the east slopes of the central mountain chain Thursday. Any of these storms look to be short-lived given the lack of shear and steering flow over the state, continuing on as secondary updrafts along the western edge of the frontal boundary later Thursday afternoon. HiRes CAMs are hinting at a conglomeration of convection through southeastern NM in the evening, migrating northward east of Roswell and toward Portales. PoPs were bumped up over the NBM to account for this Thursday night. A brief period of gusty east canyon winds will push through the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and Albuquerque Thursday evening as well.

Friday sees modification of the boundary layer across eastern NM where high temperatures climb back into the 80s and 90s. The heat remains along and west of the Rio Grande Valley with another round of 90s and flirtations with 100F from Albuquerque southward to Socorro. A few isolated afternoon thunderstorms will again try to develop along and just east of the central mountain chain.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The weekend begins the long term period with drier westerlies advancing back thru central and eastern NM, pushing the dryline eastward toward TX. Highs thru eastern NM climb back into the 90s, flirting with 100 in Roswell, staying fairly consistent for the Rio Grande Valley westward. A few isolated thunderstorms will favor development along the dryline if anywhere Saturday afternoon. Sunday sees further heating thru eastern NM from downslope compressional warming resulting from westerlies pushing all the way to and past the TX state line. Highs climbing to the low 100s build northward thru eastern NM to the I-40 corridor.

Monday sees a reboot of weather conditions to what is forecast for today with only slight modifications. A cold front advances southward thru eastern NM Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing a sharp cool down with highs back into the 70s and 80s most areas. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts with less potential further south. Modest northwesterly flow aloft overriding the Sangre de Cristo's look to provide a better environment for convective organization and strong to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm thru northeastern NM.

Convective outflow from any thunderstorm activity in northeastern NM Monday evening will help advance low-level moisture further west into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning. However, a building 596dm H5 high over northwestern Mexico will bring modest westerlies aloft pushing into the Four Corners. This will help scour out said moisture Tuesday afternoon with convection still favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday and again Wednesday. The building 596dm high, the season's first notable rendition of the monsoon high, brings in increased heat into southwestern NM with low 100s from Glenwood to Socorro to Albuquerque.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

While LLWS lessens through the area, a potent cold front bringing strong northerly to northeasterly wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph is progressing southward thru eastern NM this hour. Currently having progressed thru KTCC, it is expect to reach KROW by ~13Z this morning. Winds across eastern NM will veer out of the east thru the day while the front will ride up the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms to favor development there with a few isolated mostly virga showers over west-central NM. Have included a PROB30 for gusty winds from this activity reaching KABQ-KAEG- KSAF late this afternoon. Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity looks to linger over southeastern NM the longest tonight, and have a VCSH at KROW that has room to grow to impacts at the terminal as we get closer.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Western NM: Dry and hot conditions remain for areas along and west of the central mountain chain thru the next 7 days. Westerly winds will be the limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions, with the exception of Saturday as winds increase. Saturday RFTI's are currently forecast to reach 4 to 5 alongside very dry fuels highlighted by ERCs reaching or surpassing the 90th percentile. Portions of the Rio Grande Valley will see some brief relief in the form of increased humidity Friday morning and Tuesday mornings when cold fronts across eastern NM advance thru the gaps of the central mountain chain.

Eastern NM: A potent cold front brings a strong northerly to northeasterly wind shift this morning, highlighted by gusty winds of 35 to 50 mph. Temperatures fall back 15F to 25F while the increase in moisture will allow for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Drier westerlies advance into the highlands Friday, and to the TX border this weekend when highs again climb back into the 90s and low 100s. Cooler temperatures and high humidity returns behind another cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Afternoon thunderstorm activity Monday will focus for areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's, expanding further south each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 99 59 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 93 48 93 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 57 91 59 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 94 55 92 50 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 88 56 87 53 / 10 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 93 55 92 54 / 5 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 86 56 87 55 / 5 10 5 0 Magdalena....................... 89 62 89 63 / 10 10 10 0 Datil........................... 85 58 86 58 / 20 20 10 0 Reserve......................... 89 50 92 50 / 30 20 5 0 Glenwood........................ 92 54 96 54 / 50 20 0 0 Chama........................... 86 46 85 49 / 0 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 61 86 63 / 5 5 20 0 Pecos........................... 89 54 89 56 / 10 20 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 56 86 57 / 5 5 20 5 Red River....................... 76 45 78 46 / 10 10 30 5 Angel Fire...................... 80 42 80 42 / 10 5 40 5 Taos............................ 88 53 89 52 / 5 5 20 0 Mora............................ 82 52 84 54 / 20 5 40 10 Espanola........................ 96 60 95 62 / 0 5 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 90 60 89 61 / 10 10 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 57 93 60 / 5 10 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 65 96 68 / 5 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 66 97 67 / 5 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 63 100 66 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 65 98 68 / 0 5 5 0 Belen........................... 99 63 99 64 / 0 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 100 64 99 67 / 0 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 61 98 63 / 0 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 99 65 99 68 / 0 5 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 63 98 65 / 0 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 94 63 94 66 / 5 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 65 98 68 / 0 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 100 68 100 68 / 5 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 60 91 63 / 10 10 10 0 Tijeras......................... 92 60 92 63 / 10 10 10 0 Edgewood........................ 91 57 92 60 / 10 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 53 93 55 / 10 20 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 87 57 / 10 20 30 5 Mountainair..................... 90 56 92 60 / 20 20 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 88 57 91 60 / 20 20 20 0 Carrizozo....................... 92 63 93 65 / 30 20 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 82 55 83 59 / 30 20 60 0 Capulin......................... 75 50 83 53 / 0 5 50 20 Raton........................... 82 52 87 53 / 10 10 40 10 Springer........................ 82 54 88 55 / 10 5 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 82 53 86 55 / 20 5 30 10 Clayton......................... 73 54 84 60 / 0 5 10 20 Roy............................. 77 55 84 58 / 0 5 20 20 Conchas......................... 83 59 92 63 / 0 0 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 82 59 90 61 / 0 0 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 80 61 89 66 / 5 5 10 30 Clovis.......................... 79 61 87 63 / 5 20 5 20 Portales........................ 83 61 88 64 / 5 20 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 85 61 91 64 / 5 5 5 10 Roswell......................... 95 65 94 67 / 5 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 89 60 91 62 / 10 10 30 0 Elk............................. 87 58 89 59 / 20 10 60 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for NMZ235-236.