textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Ongoing areal flooding impacts across southeastern NM will see more scattered afternoon storms today which will threaten secondary flash flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge continues at a less intense pace today, but still with a continued marginal to slight risk of flash flooding. Drier conditions follow this weekend.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances increases Sunday night into Monday, resulting in another stretch of increased flash flooding risk potentially lasting into late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

An ongoing flash flood threat will persist mainly across southeastern New Mexico today into tonight, where the last 24 hours of heavy rainfall has produced widespread 1-2 inch totals with locally higher amounts of 4-6 inches across portions of Lincoln and Roosevelt Counties and even upwards of 10 inches across portions of Curry County. A mid- to upper-level trough/low will continue to weaken and shift northeast this afternoon, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across much of New Mexico. Drier air filtering into the region should keep coverage lower compared to recent days, however, sufficient low-level moisture and instability remain in place across eastern and southeastern New Mexico which raises concerns. A few storms could become strong since there is lingering instability and modest shear. Given the saturated conditions across southeastern New Mexico, even isolated storms could produce renewed flooding in areas still reeling from flooding impacts from last night's rainfall. Locals in these areas should be weather aware and have multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings. Heed local authorities, and only travel if absolutely necessary.

A gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected after midnight tonight and into the weekend as subsidence from a building 591 dam ridge and drier air overspread the region.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

After a relatively quiet weekend, things take a turn to become more active late on Sunday as a deep Pacific trough digs southward along the West Coast and begins to tap into increasingly rich moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and the remnants of Odalys. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and large-scale ascent will support a return of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening, initially over western New Mexico and the Continental Divide before spreading eastward and becoming more widespread Monday and Tuesday as the trough closes off.

With the influence of this tropical moisture plume, PWATs are forecast to reach well above seasonal normals, with the NAEFS and ENS Standard Anomalies indicating above normal PWATs across portions of the region by roughly 2-4 standard deviations. The combination of anomalous moisture, instability, and increasing upper-level forcing should support periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Storms may also become more organized as stronger flow aloft overspreads the region, introducing a potential severe weather component in addition to the flash flood threat.

Flash flooding is still our main concern at this time, particularly across areas that will remain saturated from this week's rainfall. Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches will be possible across portions of New Mexico, with locally higher totals where storms train or repeatedly affect the same locations. This could result in renewed flash flooding as well as rises on area streams, tributaries, and river. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across much of the area during the early part of next week.

It is worth mentioning that there is still uncertainty regarding the exact evolution and track of the trough/low and tropical remnants, even though long-term deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance have come into slightly better agreement with the most recent 12Z runs. All that to say, the location and magnitude of the heaviest rainfall may likely change with subsequent guidance. Nonetheless, confidence is increasing in a wetter and more active pattern beginning Sunday evening and continuing through at least Tuesday, with conditions potentially remaining unsettled into midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Another round of afternoon scattered afternoon showers and storms is expected to develop today, moving west to east across the state bringing localized and brief impacts at all terminals. Precipitation should dissipate after midnight. Outside of thunderstorm driven outflow gusts, winds will generally remain at 10 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

There are no fire weather concerns through the next week as abundant monsoonal moisture tracks across the state. Aside from Saturday's and most of Sunday's drier conditions, each day has notable shower and thunderstorm chances across the state. Main threats will be gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding, notably over recent burn scars.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 47 80 50 80 / 5 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 44 74 45 75 / 40 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 48 71 49 72 / 40 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 41 79 42 77 / 10 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 45 72 47 71 / 30 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 41 77 41 76 / 40 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 47 75 50 73 / 10 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 50 74 52 74 / 40 0 0 10 Datil........................... 47 73 49 72 / 5 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 51 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 58 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 41 68 43 69 / 50 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 51 71 56 74 / 40 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 49 73 49 74 / 40 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 69 44 71 / 20 0 0 0 Red River....................... 39 62 39 64 / 20 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 37 69 30 70 / 40 0 0 0 Taos............................ 43 75 40 77 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 47 72 48 72 / 40 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 51 77 52 78 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 76 47 77 / 40 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 78 48 80 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 79 56 81 / 60 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 80 58 81 / 60 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 81 59 82 / 60 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 80 57 81 / 60 0 0 0 Belen........................... 56 79 57 80 / 60 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 80 56 81 / 60 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 79 57 80 / 60 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 55 80 57 81 / 60 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 78 57 79 / 60 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 53 78 54 80 / 60 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 55 77 56 78 / 60 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 82 55 83 / 20 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 70 52 73 / 60 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 52 72 53 75 / 60 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 49 74 48 77 / 60 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 78 41 82 / 60 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 75 50 77 / 50 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 73 52 75 / 30 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 53 73 53 76 / 30 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 77 58 79 / 30 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 53 72 54 74 / 30 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 50 73 50 75 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 46 80 46 82 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 50 78 50 80 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 47 78 47 78 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 57 81 57 82 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 53 78 54 78 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 60 84 58 85 / 30 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 61 87 57 89 / 30 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 59 85 57 85 / 30 0 0 0 Portales........................ 61 84 60 87 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 85 60 86 / 40 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 62 91 59 91 / 30 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 57 82 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 Elk............................. 55 79 56 80 / 20 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226-235-236- 238>240.