textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

The backdoor cold front has stalled it's westward progression along the central mountain chain early this afternoon, but is still forecast to result in gusty east winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys later this afternoon and evening as it surges west through the gaps and down the canyons. Upslope forcing, combined with sufficient moisture and daytime heating, is resulting in a slow-growing round of convection along the east slopes of the central mountain chain early this afternoon. No lightning yet, but all of the recent CAMs show this round expanding in intensity through the afternoon hours and potentially impacting Las Vegas, Clines Corner, Vaughn, Corona and Ruidoso. The SPC has this area in a marginal risk area for severe storms today, but the area with the highest probability for severe storms is in/near the South Central Mountains where the 12Z NAM shows 0-6km bulk shear reaching 40kts, with muCAPE of close to 2,000J/kg and LIs of -5C. All of the CAMs show convection diminishing rapidly with the loss of daytime heating this evening. The gusty east canyon wind is forecast to relax around midnight an skies are forecast to clear overnight. Drying aloft is forecast tonight behind a departing shortwave trough, but the near-surface layer across southeast NM will be fairly saturated and fog will likely develop along/east of a Roswell to Fort Sumner to Clovis line. There is a moderate chance (40-50%) that a Dense Fog Advisory will be required early Monday morning with the highest confidence area around/near Clovis and Portales.

A 590dam 500mb high will develop over AZ Monday and shift east into NM Monday night, bringing warmer temperatures. High temperatures will generally be 5-10 degrees above average Monday, except for a few degrees below average across southeast NM where the impacts of today's cold front will linger longer. A few showers are likely by late afternoon Monday across the western and southern high terrain, but will favor gusty winds over measurable rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

The 590dam 500mb will move directly over NM on Tuesday, bringing the hottest day of the work-week with highs approaching daily records at several locales. The heat will persist into Wednesday as the upper level ridge is slow to shift east of the region. A slight uptick in moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere, combined with daytime heating, will result in a round of late day and mostly dry convection favoring central and western areas Wednesday. Inverted-V sounding profiles will be favorable for strong/erratic wind gusts late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

An upper level low is forecast to progress east across the Intermountain West from Wednesday through Friday, potentially steering stronger westerlies over NM and resulting in windy conditions. However, there is notable spread among the 12Z model solutions with the track and speed of this upper air feature leading to lower forecast confidence beyond Wednesday. That said, the modeling for the weekend shows dry/warm conditions persisting with backing winds aloft ahead of a weak Pacific trough, potentially pulling Gulf moisture into eastern NM late Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Easterly upslope flow in eastern NM has led to the development of MVFR cigs along the east slopes of the central mtn chain. These low clouds will expand in coverage through 12Z and may sneak through Glorieta pass into the vicinity of KSAF. Patchy fog may develop in the eastern plains, generally south of I-40. There is a low chance (~20%) that this fog impacts KROW around sunrise.

Clouds and fog will clear rapidly after sunrise, giving way to clear skies areawide today. Afternoon winds will be light (<10 kts) at most terminals.

Gusty east winds up to 35 kts at KABQ will continue through around 08Z, with winds diminishing significantly late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

A warming and drying trend continues, except for behind a backdoor cold front across eastern NM where higher humidity and cooler temperatures prevail this afternoon. A few storms are likely later this afternoon and evening along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands, where lightning ignitions can not be ruled-out. An upper high over AZ will shift east over NM from Monday through Tuesday, bringing hotter conditions, well above average temperatures and mostly light winds. The ridge will shift east Wednesday and allow moisture to trend up in the mid levels of the atmosphere, supporting heating-triggered dry showers and storms that will favor gusty/erratic winds over wetting rainfall. Winds will increase Thu/Fri as an upper level trough/low moves east from the Great Basin through the Rockies, bringing stronger westerly winds aloft and a deepening lee side trough. Probabilities for critical fire weather conditions are on the upswing for Thu/Fri as a result, but are still relatively low given model spread with the track and speed of the upper level trough/low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 47 85 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 34 82 38 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 39 79 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 37 84 40 87 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 44 81 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 84 44 88 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 82 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 79 52 84 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 44 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 41 88 46 91 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 46 91 49 94 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 34 76 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 46 78 53 83 / 5 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 38 79 47 85 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 76 46 81 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 34 67 41 72 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 27 72 35 78 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 33 80 40 85 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 38 78 47 84 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 44 85 49 90 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 78 51 84 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 81 48 87 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 83 58 90 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 85 54 91 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 88 53 94 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 85 55 92 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 45 86 52 93 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 86 54 93 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 86 51 93 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 87 55 93 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 86 52 92 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 49 82 56 88 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 49 86 55 92 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 88 57 94 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 79 54 86 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 79 53 86 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 40 81 49 88 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 82 42 89 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 78 48 84 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 41 80 50 87 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 78 50 85 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 81 55 88 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 75 53 82 / 10 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 35 76 44 82 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 36 82 43 88 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 37 84 43 89 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 39 80 47 86 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 80 53 91 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 39 79 46 88 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 43 87 51 95 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 83 48 92 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 85 55 98 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 43 84 52 97 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 43 84 52 97 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 83 50 96 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 49 82 54 97 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 47 81 51 92 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 45 82 50 90 / 10 5 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.