textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

- Localized strong and erratic wind gusts from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall, late Wednesday across much of western and northern New Mexico.

- Low to moderate chance (30-50%) of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday. Low chance (20-30%) on Sunday and Monday across much of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Clear skies prevail around New Mexico tonight thanks to a ridge that is currently centered over southwest NM. The low humidity combined with clear skies and light winds will allow strong valley inversions to develop so temps in valley floors will likely drop off within the next few hours. The cool morning will be short-lived as temps rapidly climb today. Highs will be warmer than the past several days, with 80s and 90s everywhere except the high mountains. A few locations could even break records, including at Santa Fe and Farmington where highs of 89F and 91F are forecast, respectively. Some moisture will try to sneak up under the ridge into southwest NM in the afternoon, which could spark a couple of high based virga showers in the southwest mountains.

Tuesday night will be another clear and calm night around the region. Moisture will quietly be sneaking up from the south, with the main plume of moisture focusing over western NM where PWATs will rise up to as much as 250% of normal per the GEFS mean. Hi-res models are showing a quite extensive coverage of virga showers in the western two-thirds of the state during the afternoon hours of Wednesday. There should be just enough instability for a few strikes of lightning as well. Given 700 mb dewpoint depressions in excess of 25C and sfc humidities below 20%, wetting rain is very unlikely and any high based showers and storms are more likely to produce strong outflow wind gusts than rain. Given the coverage, a series of virga showers could produce pockets of blowing dust near dust sources. The increase cloud coverage will keep temps down a degree or two in most areas, but it will still be a hot day with moderate heat risk along the Rio Grande Valley from Albuquerque southward and in southeastern NM.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

The ridge over the southern Rockies will break down late week, being replaced by quasi-zonal flow, with the subtropical jet over northern Mexico and the polar jet over the northern Rockies. Winds will trend slightly stronger, but with the main sub-tropcial jet to the south, 700 mb winds will only be around 20-30 kts. It will be enough to create southwest to west breezes around the region and the downsloping breeze will make it quite toasty in the eastern plains, with 90s all the way up in Clayton. The moisture plume from the south will be tilted Thursday in response to the sub-tropical jet and this will allow a drier airmass to push in from the west. There could be a few gusty showers in far eastern NM on the periphery of this moisture, but it will generally be much drier.

The pattern remains largely unchanged Friday and Saturday with breezy and seasonably warm conditons continuing. There is evidence that the pattern will change Sunday into the early part of next week as a longwave trough develops over the western CONUS. This time of year, this is often an early indicator of a fire weather pattern with dry southwest flow and strong winds over New Mexico, but that may not be the case this time around since there is already some moisture moving up from the south and that could be enough to prevent significant drying. Furthermore, some models are not showing a significant longwave trough and instead keep weaker quasi-zonal flow overhead. Overall, ensemble data is very mixed and uncertainty in the synoptic pattern remains high in the 7-10 day range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Typical late afternoon gustiness is expected, but otherwise winds will be light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Today will be very dry and warm with near record highs and afternoon humidities in the single digits almost everywhere outside of the high mountains. The ridge centered over New Mexico today will begin to break down on Wednesday, allowing moisture to sneak up from the south. This will create scattered to even widespread virga showers in the western two-thirds of the state and pockets of instability could result in a few dry lightning strikes in the western and northern high terrain.

A few gusty showers could develop in far eastern NM on Thursday afternoon, but most areas will be clear as a drier airmass pushes in from the west. West winds will trend stronger as this dry airmass pushes in so there is still a low to moderate chance of critical fire weather conditions on Thursday, with the highest likelihood in the Central and Northeast Highlands where it will be windiest.

Winds trend weaker on Friday, but will likely trend up again slightly over the weekend, creating widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Sunday has trended drier as well as models are delaying the uptick in moisture. There are low chances of high based showers and a few storms early next week in the eastern half of the state. Model uncertainty remains high in the 7- 10 day range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 91 50 88 48 / 0 0 10 10 Dulce........................... 88 43 85 43 / 0 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 86 49 82 47 / 0 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 89 47 84 42 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 86 48 81 44 / 5 0 10 10 Grants.......................... 89 49 84 45 / 5 0 20 10 Quemado......................... 86 50 82 45 / 5 10 10 5 Magdalena....................... 85 57 84 54 / 10 0 10 5 Datil........................... 84 52 80 49 / 10 5 10 5 Reserve......................... 92 48 86 43 / 5 5 5 0 Glenwood........................ 95 50 91 46 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 82 41 79 40 / 0 0 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 84 59 83 57 / 0 0 10 10 Pecos........................... 86 49 83 50 / 0 0 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 48 80 48 / 0 0 10 10 Red River....................... 73 41 71 42 / 0 0 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 79 38 76 42 / 0 0 10 10 Taos............................ 86 48 84 48 / 0 0 5 10 Mora............................ 85 47 81 51 / 0 0 10 10 Espanola........................ 92 55 89 55 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 86 53 84 53 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 52 87 52 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 61 88 60 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 59 90 58 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 57 92 57 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 58 90 57 / 0 0 5 5 Belen........................... 94 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 94 58 91 58 / 0 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 94 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 95 57 91 57 / 0 0 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 94 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 90 60 88 60 / 0 0 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 94 58 90 58 / 0 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 96 62 94 61 / 5 0 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 58 84 56 / 0 0 5 5 Tijeras......................... 87 56 85 56 / 0 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 89 54 86 55 / 0 0 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 43 87 45 / 0 0 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 85 53 83 54 / 0 0 5 5 Mountainair..................... 88 54 86 54 / 5 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 87 54 85 55 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 90 60 88 61 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 83 60 80 61 / 5 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 83 44 81 50 / 0 10 10 10 Raton........................... 88 46 85 50 / 0 10 10 10 Springer........................ 89 47 87 51 / 0 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 87 49 83 54 / 0 0 10 10 Clayton......................... 91 51 86 58 / 0 10 5 5 Roy............................. 88 50 84 55 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 96 55 93 61 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 93 53 91 57 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 98 56 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 97 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 98 56 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 96 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 98 61 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 92 56 88 57 / 10 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.