textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High pressure aloft has shifted east and will continue to sprawl across the southeastern and Gulf Coast states through Thursday as a trough of low pressure aloft remains over and offshore of CA. This will keep eastern areas hot where higher heights and more subsidence will be found while the western and eventually central areas of NM observe increasing subtropical moisture moving in. This will lead to an increase in diurnal thunderstorm activity with more nocturnal showers lingering. Precipitation will focus over western NM today and tonight, expanding into more northern and a few central areas of the state on Thursday. The increased moisture, clouds, and precipitation will act to moderate temperatures, bringing daytime highs closer, if not slightly below, normal in western and central areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper high remains over the lower MS valley into Friday with a continued fetch of subtropical moisture feeding northward into NM. PWATs look to range from around 0.85 to 1.3 inches with the driest areas remaining in the northwestern to north central portions of NM while the lower Pecos River valley holds higher values. Storms will continue to initiate farther east into Friday, including more cells over the Sacramentos which will pose concerns for burn scars. Storms will have a harder time moving off of the mountains and into the far eastern plains given the south- to-north steering flow, but a few mesoscale cold pools may allow for propagation Friday night. This trend will continue on into Saturday with scattered to numerous cells initiating over the high terrain during the afternoon and filling into adjacent valleys and lowlands through the overnight. Both Friday and Saturday appear to be the more active storm days with heavy rainfall potential for high terrain areas and rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The slow struggling expansion of storms in eastern zones will subdue the heat slightly, but readings will still commonly reach the mid 90's in the eastern plains both Friday and Saturday.

Uncertainty starts to grow for next week with prognoses indicating that the upper high will push back more centrally over NM Sunday and Monday. This would suggest more subsidence along with a less optimal steering flow for subtropical moisture, and ensembles indicate a reduction in PWATs over much of AZ and western and northern NM. Blended guidance from the NBM retains high POPs for Sunday and Monday, and this could be an opportunity for fine-tuning and reductions as subsequent shifts update the forecast. The upper high looks to move very little into Wednesday and Thursday with lighter winds and slower steering flow making it difficult for storms to move far off of the high terrain. Therefore, climatologically favored mountain ranges would fare best with opportunities for rainfall with chances decreasing sharply downslope.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Moisture is increasing across western New Mexico, and this will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity, posing the usual aviation weather hazards of gusty downburst winds, small hail, and lightning along with brief reductions to ceilings and visibility in any downpours. While the strongest storms will occur through the late afternoon and early evening, a transition to more showery activity is forecast to linger through the overnight hours and into early Thursday. Smoke from wildfires, particularly north of KSAF, will pose localized reductions to visibility. Density altitude readings will also remain high due to hot temperatures, posing poor aircraft performance for some. Another active thunderstorm day is forecast for Thursday, mainly for western and portions of northern New Mexico.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next several days. Breezy conditions will be common in the northeastern plains as the lee-side surface trough repeatedly develops each day through the end of the week. Occasional afternoon gusts of 25 to 30 mph will occur in these northeastern zones, but no widespread critical threat is forecast. Outside of northeastern NM, wind concerns will primarily be localized and brief outflows from thunderstorms. Although a more active thunderstorm pattern will be getting underway through the end of the week, there will be a threat for new lightning ignitions as fuels remain vulnerable, and this will especially be true over the finer fuels of the plains where drier soils and vegetation will be coupled with more sparse storm activity and smaller footprints of wetting rain. There is some uncertainty, but storms are likely to reduce in coverage early next week with high pressure and potentially drier air settling back over NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 88 63 87 / 50 10 40 30 Dulce........................... 48 85 53 85 / 60 30 50 40 Cuba............................ 55 83 57 84 / 40 30 50 30 Gallup.......................... 53 81 55 82 / 60 40 30 40 El Morro........................ 52 77 54 78 / 60 50 40 70 Grants.......................... 55 82 57 83 / 60 50 40 70 Quemado......................... 55 77 56 78 / 40 70 40 70 Magdalena....................... 60 82 61 83 / 20 60 30 60 Datil........................... 54 77 55 78 / 30 60 30 60 Reserve......................... 54 83 55 84 / 60 70 40 60 Glenwood........................ 57 88 59 90 / 70 50 20 40 Chama........................... 48 79 51 77 / 60 40 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 60 83 61 84 / 30 50 40 50 Pecos........................... 57 85 56 85 / 20 20 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 83 55 81 / 20 40 30 50 Red River....................... 46 76 46 74 / 10 50 30 70 Angel Fire...................... 40 79 41 78 / 5 50 20 70 Taos............................ 53 85 56 83 / 20 30 20 40 Mora............................ 54 83 54 82 / 10 40 20 70 Espanola........................ 58 90 59 90 / 30 50 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 85 60 85 / 20 20 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 88 59 88 / 20 20 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 90 66 90 / 20 20 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 91 67 91 / 20 20 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 93 62 93 / 20 20 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 91 67 92 / 20 20 30 10 Belen........................... 62 92 66 93 / 20 20 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 65 93 65 92 / 20 20 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 59 92 62 92 / 20 20 30 10 Corrales........................ 65 93 65 93 / 20 20 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 62 92 64 92 / 20 20 30 10 Placitas........................ 63 88 64 89 / 20 20 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 92 67 91 / 20 20 30 10 Socorro......................... 66 93 67 94 / 20 40 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 86 59 85 / 20 20 30 10 Tijeras......................... 59 86 61 86 / 20 20 30 10 Edgewood........................ 56 88 59 87 / 20 20 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 90 56 89 / 20 20 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 85 58 85 / 20 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 56 87 58 87 / 20 20 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 57 86 58 86 / 20 20 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 65 89 65 89 / 20 20 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 58 83 57 83 / 20 20 10 70 Capulin......................... 55 85 56 84 / 0 30 20 60 Raton........................... 56 89 56 88 / 5 30 20 70 Springer........................ 57 91 57 90 / 10 30 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 57 87 57 86 / 10 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 95 64 93 / 0 5 20 20 Roy............................. 61 91 61 90 / 5 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 69 99 67 98 / 5 10 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 66 93 66 94 / 10 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 70 100 69 99 / 0 0 10 10 Clovis.......................... 70 99 69 96 / 5 0 10 20 Portales........................ 71 99 70 98 / 5 0 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 98 69 97 / 5 10 10 10 Roswell......................... 72 99 71 99 / 10 5 5 20 Picacho......................... 66 93 66 92 / 10 20 10 70 Elk............................. 63 91 61 88 / 10 10 5 60

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-206-208- 209.