textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Storms with lightning and erratic wind gusts will favor locations along and west of the central mountain chain tonight, then decrease in coverage while spreading to more of the eastern plains on Tuesday.

- There will be a low-to-moderate risk of flash flooding below Ruidoso-area burn scars Tuesday afternoon. The risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will spread to more of the area along and west of the central mountain chain Friday and Saturday. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A rich plume of monsoon moisture will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms tonight from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. Storms will move swiftly toward the northeast around 20-45 mph, but there will be a low risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding where cells manage to train. There will then be a downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as the weakening moisture plume tilts eastward over south central and eastern parts of the forecast area, and drier air begins to move over the western third of the forecast area from the southwest. There will then be another downtick in storm coverage on Wednesday as an upper level trough crossing the Great Basin continues to steer drier air over the northwest half of the forecast area. As a result, high temperatures will trend upward over western areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Central and eastern areas will cool some Tuesday, then begin to rebound Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

After PWATs bottom out over northwest areas around 0.50-0.75" on Wednesday, they will rebound through the end of the week as a surge of monsoon moisture works its way northward over AZ and western NM. There will be a chance of locally heavy rainfall Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening over western areas, and probably also over the Ruidoso area scars, as PWATs climb around 1.10-1.30" across the forecast area. Models vary on how well the monsoon moisture will linger over western areas on Sunday, with some suggesting an ENE to WSW ridge axis over southern NM will shift the moisture plume westward over AZ. After continued warming Thursday, the increased monsoon moisture will cause high temperatures to trend downward at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward this afternoon and evening, then scattered to isolated activity will linger after midnight. Storm motion will be toward the northeast at speeds around 20-45 mph with the fastest speeds west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A few of the stronger storms should be capable of producing wet microbursts with erratic wind gusts near 50 KT. High temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages along the central mountain chain will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Since minimum humidities will remain above 15 percent for the next week, erratic thunderstorm outflows will continue to be the main fire weather concern each afternoon and evening. A few storms may be capable of producing erratic wind gusts near 60 mph this evening, then the risk of wet microbursts will increase again each afternoon and evening toward the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 58 84 58 86 / 30 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 84 44 84 / 60 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 54 82 54 84 / 70 10 10 5 Gallup.......................... 49 82 50 84 / 20 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 50 80 50 81 / 30 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 53 83 53 85 / 50 20 10 5 Quemado......................... 54 80 54 82 / 50 30 20 10 Magdalena....................... 59 83 59 84 / 30 50 20 30 Datil........................... 54 79 54 81 / 40 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 53 88 52 89 / 40 20 20 10 Glenwood........................ 57 93 57 94 / 30 20 20 5 Chama........................... 49 77 48 78 / 80 10 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 59 81 59 83 / 70 30 20 5 Pecos........................... 56 84 56 86 / 60 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 81 52 82 / 70 20 10 5 Red River....................... 46 72 44 73 / 60 20 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 39 78 37 79 / 60 20 10 20 Taos............................ 52 84 51 86 / 70 20 10 5 Mora............................ 52 81 50 84 / 50 30 20 20 Espanola........................ 59 89 57 90 / 70 30 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 84 61 86 / 60 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 87 58 88 / 60 20 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 92 67 93 / 50 20 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 91 65 93 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 93 63 95 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 91 67 93 / 40 20 10 0 Belen........................... 62 93 62 94 / 30 20 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 65 92 65 94 / 50 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 93 61 94 / 40 20 10 0 Corrales........................ 65 93 65 94 / 50 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 93 63 94 / 40 20 10 0 Placitas........................ 64 89 65 91 / 50 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 92 66 93 / 40 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 67 95 67 96 / 30 30 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 86 59 87 / 60 20 20 0 Tijeras......................... 59 86 61 87 / 50 20 20 0 Edgewood........................ 56 88 57 89 / 40 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 89 54 90 / 30 20 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 58 86 58 86 / 20 20 20 5 Mountainair..................... 56 87 57 88 / 40 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 57 87 58 88 / 30 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 63 90 64 91 / 20 20 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 57 83 58 84 / 30 50 20 30 Capulin......................... 57 84 55 86 / 20 40 20 10 Raton........................... 54 86 51 89 / 30 50 10 10 Springer........................ 55 89 52 91 / 30 50 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 85 54 87 / 20 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 66 92 66 94 / 5 10 20 5 Roy............................. 62 88 59 90 / 10 30 20 5 Conchas......................... 68 97 66 98 / 5 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 92 64 93 / 10 30 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 69 97 68 98 / 0 10 20 0 Clovis.......................... 67 96 68 98 / 0 10 10 0 Portales........................ 68 97 68 99 / 0 10 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 68 98 / 0 20 10 5 Roswell......................... 71 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 62 93 63 94 / 20 50 20 30 Elk............................. 59 90 60 91 / 20 50 20 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.