textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 457 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026 - Flash flood risk continues in northwest New Mexico this evening, spreading eastward into central New Mexico late Thursday through Friday. There is the potential for more heavy rainfall and flash flooding in eastern New Mexico over the weekend.

- A few strong to severe storms in western New Mexico this evening could produce damaging outflow wind gusts and large hail. The severe threat extends into central New Mexico Thursday, then into eastern New Mexico Friday.

- Rainfall over northwest New Mexico this week will create rises on tributaries as well as main stem rivers such as the San Juan and Animas. No river flooding is currently forecast, but trends will be monitored closely over the next few days.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A slow moving and potent upper level low offshore of CA is steering an atmospheric river containing record moisture levels (PWATs) into the Desert SW and NM, which will continue through Thursday night. The 18Z KABQ upper air sounding showed a PWAT of 0.96", which is a new calendar day record and forecast to continue climbing through Thursday. Forcing associated with the slowly approaching upper low will favor AZ and western NM, mainly along/west of the Continental Divide, for rounds of convection through Thursday afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts and modest instability across western NM today and moreso Thursday will allow for a few strong to severe storms. The SPC has portions of western NM included in a marginal risk for severe storms on both the day1 and day2 convective outlooks. A Flood Watch is still in effect through Thursday night for much of western NM. River, stream and urban-type flooding are all possible, but more significant flash flooding will take training storms given fast storm motion of 35-50mph. The initial upper low is forecast to pull northeast over NV Thursday night, while a secondary jet maxima dives south down the backside of the trough. This trough evolution and forecast jet dynamics brings less forcing to central NM, including the RGV, Thursday night than previously modeled. This is reflected in slightly lower PoPs in central NM Thursday night and less qpf. At this time, there isn't much support for expanding the Flood Watch east to the RGV.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The 2nd jet maxima offshore of CA is forecast to close off a 2nd upper low over SoCal on Friday. Ample shear and sufficient instability will persist Friday for another round of convection, with a few strong to severe storms possible across much of central NM. The upper low is forecast to move east across southern AZ toward NM on Saturday, brining a more widespread showers w/embedded storms scenario that will favor central/eastern NM through Saturday night. The upper low is then forecast to lift northeast over the region Sunday, focusing precipitation chances across the eastern plains and northern mountains. A Flash Flood Watch may be required for portions of eastern NM on Sat/Sun. Weak ridging aloft will follow the departing upper low Monday through Wednesday, bringing a slow warming/drying trend. Wet conditions may return by the end of next week as an active troughing pattern persists with abundant Pacific moisture availability.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A rich stream of moisture surging northeast into the southwest CONUS will allow widespread SHRA/TS to continue over western NM the next 24 hours. Patchy MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected near the heavier storms with lcl mt top obscurations likely thru sunrise Thursday. A period of SHRA/TS may also slide into the RGV in the 10PM to 4AM timeframe depending on whether storms near the Cont Divide can hold together tonight. A large area of rain and TS is likely to surge northeast over western NM Thursday afternoon then into the RGV after 5PM. Lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys will continue with mt top obscurations likely near the heavier precip.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. An approaching Pacific low and anomalously high atmospheric moisture over the region will combine to bring higher humidity and increasing chances for wetting precipitation through at least Saturday, favoring western NM initially. A drying and warming trend will begin Monday and continue into the middle of next week under the influence of ridging aloft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 68 50 65 / 80 80 80 40 Dulce........................... 47 63 46 61 / 80 80 90 80 Cuba............................ 50 65 48 62 / 40 70 80 50 Gallup.......................... 51 67 47 64 / 80 80 90 20 El Morro........................ 49 64 45 64 / 50 80 90 20 Grants.......................... 50 65 48 67 / 40 80 90 20 Quemado......................... 52 68 48 66 / 30 80 80 10 Magdalena....................... 54 68 51 66 / 5 40 60 30 Datil........................... 50 65 47 64 / 10 70 80 20 Reserve......................... 52 70 50 68 / 40 90 100 20 Glenwood........................ 57 74 53 72 / 60 90 100 30 Chama........................... 46 60 44 56 / 80 80 90 80 Los Alamos...................... 51 66 50 63 / 30 40 70 50 Pecos........................... 48 68 47 64 / 20 30 70 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 66 47 61 / 20 40 60 40 Red River....................... 41 59 41 54 / 20 40 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 39 65 41 60 / 10 40 50 40 Taos............................ 46 69 47 64 / 20 30 60 40 Mora............................ 46 67 46 62 / 10 30 50 60 Espanola........................ 51 73 52 69 / 30 30 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 52 68 50 64 / 20 30 70 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 70 50 66 / 20 30 70 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 73 55 71 / 10 30 60 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 73 54 72 / 10 30 60 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 74 55 74 / 20 30 60 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 72 55 72 / 20 30 60 30 Belen........................... 55 75 55 74 / 10 30 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 55 74 54 72 / 20 30 60 40 Bosque Farms.................... 55 75 55 73 / 10 30 50 20 Corrales........................ 55 74 55 72 / 20 30 60 30 Los Lunas....................... 55 74 55 73 / 10 30 50 20 Placitas........................ 55 72 54 70 / 20 30 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 55 73 55 71 / 20 40 60 40 Socorro......................... 58 76 56 73 / 5 20 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 68 50 66 / 10 30 60 30 Tijeras......................... 53 70 51 68 / 10 20 60 30 Edgewood........................ 50 70 49 68 / 10 20 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 73 49 70 / 10 10 50 40 Clines Corners.................. 50 69 49 65 / 10 10 50 50 Mountainair..................... 50 71 50 67 / 0 10 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 51 72 50 67 / 0 5 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 55 75 54 70 / 0 5 30 50 Ruidoso......................... 51 70 50 65 / 0 0 30 70 Capulin......................... 50 70 49 64 / 0 0 20 20 Raton........................... 48 74 48 68 / 5 10 20 30 Springer........................ 48 75 50 69 / 10 10 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 48 68 47 62 / 10 20 40 60 Clayton......................... 54 78 54 70 / 0 0 5 20 Roy............................. 51 72 51 65 / 0 5 10 40 Conchas......................... 56 80 56 73 / 0 0 10 50 Santa Rosa...................... 54 76 55 70 / 0 0 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 57 82 57 75 / 0 0 10 40 Clovis.......................... 56 79 55 74 / 0 0 5 20 Portales........................ 56 80 56 75 / 0 0 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 55 79 56 73 / 0 0 10 30 Roswell......................... 56 81 58 77 / 0 0 10 40 Picacho......................... 54 76 53 72 / 0 0 20 60 Elk............................. 53 74 52 71 / 0 0 20 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late Thursday night for NMZ201>210-241.