textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026 - Isolated virga showers capable of gusty outflow winds will be favored across northern NM on Saturday afternoon. Expect a 20% to 50% chance of thunderstorms along the eastern slopes of the central mountains as well as the adjacent highlands for Sunday afternoon. - A warming trend is forecast going into the middle of next week, except for brief cooling across eastern NM on Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Hot temperatures return next week with a minor to moderate risk in heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Latest upper air analysis depicts a weak closed low traversing northern Mexico but this feature will have a neglible impact on the sensible weather across the CWA. Meanwhile, low level return flow could bring patchy stratus into the far southeast zones by daybreak. Should it materialize, expect the cloud deck to either erode or be pushed eastward by mid-morning. A dry backdoor front will slowly ooze its way southward into the northeast plains by late morning through the afternoon, shifting surface winds from the north-northeast. Highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer compared to Thursday with a few hours of breezy winds for areas along and west of the central mountain chain.

Northwest flow prevails on Sat with mid-level moisture drifting into northern NM in advance of an embedded weak shortwave. By peak heating, expect some well-defined cumulus to develop. Given robust inverted-v soundings and DCAPE values stretching from 500 to 1000 J/kg per the hi-res deterministic guidance, gusty virga showers will be favored, especially along/north of I-40. A rogue lightning strike may also occur, but confidence is low given LI values will be marginally negative.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

The aforementioned shortwave will track across northern NM for Sat night as a more substantial backdoor front invades the ern plains. Deterministic guidance attempts to spit out a low threat for showers or a thunderstorm in northeast NM during this time. There is much higher confidence in breezy to windy northerly sfc winds in the wake of the boundary. Most locations should remain below advisory criteria; however, latest NBM suggests a 30%-60% chance for gusts exceeding 40 mph, highest near the Caprock.

Cooler readings on the order of 10-15 degrees can be expected in eastern NM on Sunday as low-level easterly flow will dominate the area. Upslope forcing coupled with lingering moisture and north- northwest flow aloft will allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop lee of the central mountains then drift into the adjacent highlands before collapsing. NBM guidance was a bit aggressive with 70%+ PoPs, but tempered them a bit given the meager ingredients. Regardless, gusty outflows cannot be ruled out with the more robust convection. Gap winds are favored in the RGV for Sunday/Sunday evening, which could be enhanced by any outflow boundaries that develop east of the central mtn chain.

Tranquil but hot weather is projected for early in the work week as a ridge expands over the Desert Southwest. 500hPa heights are expected to climb to near 590dam, which would be near the mid-May records per the SPC Sounding Climatology database. By Tuesday, it appears the ridge axis will be oriented from far west Texas toward the Great Basin region. As a result, expect well above normal high temps, with several daily records at risk. The NBM suggests a 70% to 95% chance for readings of 95F+ over east central and southeast NM on Tuesday with nearly a 35% probability of tagging the century mark at KTCC and KROW. The record highs for both sites on Tuesday are 99F and 100F respectively.

Subtropical moisture is forecast to advect northward along the western periphery of the upr level ridge axis. At the same time, a closed low positioned in the far eastern Pacific will weaken into an open wave and migrate toward the southwest U.S., offering an increase in cloud cover and low precipitation chances. This will likely take a slight edge off the hot temperatures but will remain well above normal. Confidence in storm coverage is fairly low to moderate as resolving weak features of this nature can be difficult to pinpoint this far in advance.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Moistening low level southerly flow continues across southeast New Mexico with IFR ceilings confined to Eddy and Lea counties. This activity could migrate northward into far southeast Chaves and far southern Roosevelt counties with high confidence (90 pct chance) activity will remain out of the KROW terminal. Stratus will erode by mid-morning. By late morning into early afternoon, a dry backdoor cold front will provide a wind shift in northeast NM while gusty northwest winds can be expected along/west of the central mtn chain. Peak gusts will range from 20-28 kts with the highest speeds over the Four Corners area including KFMN. Winds will gradually diminish after dusk.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated in the next several days. Anticipate a wind shift across northeast New Mexico this afternoon as a weak surface boundary drifts into the region. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds can be expected over the western and central zones this afternoon. On Saturday, expect deep mixing to nearly 500mb along with a risk for virga showers that will be capable of gusty and erratic winds. A more robust backdoor front will bring strong gusty winds in its wake for eastern NM Saturday night into Sunday. A few storms will develop along and immediately east of the central mountain chain, but wetting footprints should be rather limited. Gusty outflows are likely with these storms. A notably hot and drying pattern will develop for the work week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Surface wind speeds will be weak, limiting the risk for critical fire weather conditions. An increase in moisture could result in a mixture of diurnally-driven wet and dry thunderstorms starting Wednesday and continuing into Friday. With fuels drying out again, will need to monitor this period closely as new lightning-induced fire starts could be concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 81 46 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 77 33 79 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 75 42 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 79 38 81 39 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 76 42 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 40 82 42 / 0 0 5 0 Quemado......................... 76 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 74 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 83 40 86 43 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 87 44 90 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 71 34 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 74 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 76 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 43 73 41 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 61 36 64 37 / 0 5 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 68 28 70 30 / 0 5 5 10 Taos............................ 74 35 78 38 / 0 0 5 5 Mora............................ 74 42 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 80 45 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 47 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 44 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 49 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 46 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 50 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 45 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 50 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 84 47 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 53 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 84 50 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 86 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 50 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 78 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 38 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 75 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 78 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 77 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 52 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 38 75 40 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 75 38 80 42 / 0 5 5 10 Springer........................ 77 39 82 44 / 0 5 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 76 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 76 44 84 49 / 0 0 5 5 Roy............................. 76 43 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 46 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 81 45 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 47 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 86 49 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 88 49 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 47 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 52 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 50 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 47 88 54 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.