textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- A monsoon moisture plume will increase over the area from late today into the middle of next week, resulting in an uptick in daily rounds of storms and threat of localized flash flooding. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the moderate to high risk of heat-related illnesses across eastern New Mexico into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

After a down day with a drier airmass over the region, moisture advection is underway per the latest water vapor satellite imagery as a deep upper low/trough moving into the Pacific NW pulls a monsoon moisture plume north into the state. Expect an uptick in convective coverage this afternoon/evening, initially favoring the southern mountains and then spreading north across western NM. The latest CAMs show convection moving into the RGV late this afternoon, but given the relatively dry preceding airmass this round will favor gusty outflow winds over soaking rains with patches of blowing dust possible. The uptrend in PWATs associated with the developing monsoon moisture plume will continue into Friday, when values will exceed the 90th percentile and challenge daily records across central and western NM. Friday's round of convection is more likely to produce locally heavy rainfall. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso both today and Friday, but higher confidence Friday due to elevated PWATs. There is also a moderate heat risk across the eastern plains today and Friday, where high temperatures will reach up to around 10 degrees above average.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The upper high is forecast to build westward over the southern plains and eastern NM through the weekend, bringing warmer conditions further west across the area and allowing a moderate heat risk to continue across much of eastern NM. At the same time, high PWATs will persist across much of central and western NM, still above the 90th percentile and challenging daily records. Daily rounds of convection will favor the central mountain chain westward, where locally heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding. The upper high is forecast to drift back eastward from early through mid next week while elevated PWATs continue over the region thanks to persistent troughing over much of the Intermountain West. The latest medium range model solutions continue to show significant spread with regard to the placement and strength of synoptic weather features from mid through late next week, with the GFS advertising a very wet scenario involving a an approaching upper level trough and deep tap of moisture while the ECMWF advertises a sprawling upper high across much of the southern US. Needless to say, we have lower forecast confidence during the mid/late week period but it is worth acknowledging the potential for an increasingly wet scenario.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along and west of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening, with isolated activity over southeast and east central areas. After midnight, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger from the continental divide to the Manzano, Sandia, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. High res models depict some isolated cells persisting into Friday morning along the continental divide. Storm motion today will be toward the northeast around 10-20 mph, except as fast as 30 mph near the Four Corners. A few of the stronger storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Humidity will trend up today through the weekend as a monsoon moisture plume develops over the region and brings chances for wetting rain that will favor areas from the central mountain chain westward. Above average temperatures will persist across eastern NM and gradually spread west across the area through the weekend as the upper high builds west back into the region. Good chances for wetting storms and improved humidity recovery will continue into early next week, but then forecast confidence drops off around mid week due to significant model spread with regard to the placement and strength of synoptic weather features.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 87 60 82 59 / 0 20 20 10 Dulce........................... 85 46 82 47 / 0 40 20 20 Cuba............................ 83 56 79 56 / 10 50 30 50 Gallup.......................... 84 54 77 53 / 20 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 81 52 75 52 / 40 40 50 30 Grants.......................... 84 54 80 55 / 50 40 60 40 Quemado......................... 82 55 77 55 / 50 50 70 40 Magdalena....................... 83 59 82 59 / 30 30 60 40 Datil........................... 79 54 77 55 / 50 30 60 30 Reserve......................... 87 55 84 54 / 40 40 50 30 Glenwood........................ 93 58 90 58 / 30 50 30 20 Chama........................... 78 50 77 50 / 0 30 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 81 60 81 61 / 5 40 30 40 Pecos........................... 85 58 84 57 / 0 20 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 54 81 55 / 0 20 20 20 Red River....................... 72 46 72 47 / 0 20 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 78 40 78 40 / 0 20 40 20 Taos............................ 85 53 84 53 / 0 20 20 20 Mora............................ 83 54 83 54 / 5 20 40 30 Espanola........................ 89 59 88 60 / 0 30 30 40 Santa Fe........................ 85 61 84 61 / 0 20 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 59 87 59 / 0 20 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 67 90 67 / 10 20 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 65 90 65 / 10 20 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 64 92 64 / 10 20 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 66 90 67 / 10 20 20 30 Belen........................... 93 63 91 63 / 10 20 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 93 66 91 66 / 10 30 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 92 62 91 62 / 10 20 30 30 Corrales........................ 93 66 91 66 / 10 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 92 63 91 63 / 10 20 30 30 Placitas........................ 90 65 88 65 / 10 30 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 92 66 90 66 / 10 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 94 68 94 67 / 10 30 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 85 59 / 10 20 20 40 Tijeras......................... 86 61 85 61 / 10 20 20 30 Edgewood........................ 88 57 88 57 / 10 20 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 55 89 55 / 10 10 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 86 59 86 59 / 10 10 30 30 Mountainair..................... 88 58 86 57 / 10 20 30 30 Gran Quivira.................... 87 59 87 58 / 10 20 30 30 Carrizozo....................... 91 64 90 64 / 10 10 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 83 58 83 58 / 40 10 60 20 Capulin......................... 86 58 87 58 / 0 5 20 10 Raton........................... 89 55 89 55 / 0 10 20 10 Springer........................ 91 55 91 56 / 0 10 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 86 56 86 57 / 0 10 30 20 Clayton......................... 95 66 95 66 / 0 0 10 20 Roy............................. 91 61 90 61 / 0 5 20 10 Conchas......................... 99 67 99 67 / 10 5 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 93 66 93 65 / 10 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 99 70 99 69 / 20 5 10 20 Clovis.......................... 99 69 99 68 / 20 20 20 20 Portales........................ 100 70 100 69 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 99 68 99 68 / 20 10 10 20 Roswell......................... 101 70 101 70 / 10 10 20 20 Picacho......................... 94 64 94 64 / 40 10 60 10 Elk............................. 92 60 91 60 / 40 20 50 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.