textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 547 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico today could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of western and central New Mexico today will lead to potentially damaging downburst winds, patchy blowing dust, dry lightning, and a risk of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in an increasing risk for rapid fire spread across far western New Mexico today and across northeast New Mexico on Wednesday.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A deep upper low is moving toward the British Columbia coast as a broader trough moves inland over the intermountain west. A weak upper trough is also offshore of the Baja peninsula, and this regime is leaving NM in a slightly stronger westerly flow aloft (15 to 30 kt at 700mb). A lee-side surface trough is also modeled to make an appearance over northeast NM this afternoon, providing enough of a gradient both aloft and at the surface to produce prevailing breezy to windy conditions, particularly in the northern half of NM. On the eastern periphery of the lee-side surface trough, the return flow made its way across TX into eastern NM, and low level moisture has increased with significant rises in dewpoints (50s and low 60s deg F). This moisture, considerably higher instability, and a 60 to 70 kt jet streak aloft will combine and lead to thunderstorms with a few turning strong to severe over the eastern plains through the evening. Latest high resolution CAMs project multicellular clusters of storms persisting into the mid to late evening with storms mostly decaying prior to midnight. Pressure heights are also running anomalously high with warm to hot temperatures again today. A clearing trend will then occur over most areas tonight, but a few low stratus clouds could redevelop along and east of the Pecos valley.

The British Columbia low will move over the MT-Canadian border on Wednesday, sending stronger westerlies aloft into the central Rockies with more subdued drier westerly flow into northern NM. A deeper lee-side surface trough will take shape in southeastern CO, causing surface winds in NM to veer more westerly. This will quickly erode away the low layer moisture in eastern NM, virtually eliminating storm chances while keeping breezy to windy conditions going Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures would already be warm to hot, given the high pressure heights, but the westerly downsloping surface wind component in eastern zones will boost readings a couple to a few degrees more. Forecast highs are just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but there will be an increasing risk for heat related impacts and illnesses Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The upper low along the Canadian border will move into Manitoba toward Ontario with another shortwave trough lagging behind and moving off of the central Rockies into the central plains. A broad lee-side trough would attempt to redevelop in northeast NM, but the aforementioned shortwave trough will send down a backdoor front that will disrupt this and push it farther southwest into the interior of NM late in the day. Aside from a few degrees of cooling in northeastern NM, remaining areas will continue to observe dry, hot, and breezy to locally windy conditions. Heat impacts will continue, particularly in the lower Rio Grande and lower Pecos valleys Thursday. The shortwave trough will shift farther east Thursday night, and the backdoor surface front will be driven farther south and west, eventually plowing through the Rio Grande valley during the evening and reaching beyond the Continental Divide by Friday morning.

The backdoor front is projected to initialize some showers and storms as it meets up with moist return flow in west TX, but this largely looks to remain east of NM through Thursday night and Friday morning. However, significant moisture advection will ensue over eastern NM zones and even modest increases over central zones. This will reintroduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast Friday afternoon through the weekend and early next week. The tendency will be for the central mountain chain eastward to have the highest PWATs of 0.9 to 1.2 inches per ensemble means, giving this area the highest threat for strong to severe storms and heavy downpours, including the Ruidoso area burn scars. Farther west, the middle to lower Rio Grande will occasionally see spikes in PWATs to 0.7 to 0.9 inches during the Friday to early next week span where a mix of wet and drier storms would be possible while areas farther west would quickly tend more towards virga and drier cells. A couple of shortwaves embedded in northwesterly flow aloft will potentially clip northeastern NM and possibly enhance convective initiation both Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the central mountain chain will gradually decrease in coverage through the evening. Meanwhile, isolated and light showers and storms will continue over the central mountain chain and central valley until mid evening. Farther west, gusty southwest winds will continue for much of the evening. Over central areas, dry or mostly dry microbursts from a few cells may produce localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 40 KT. On the eastern plains, some storms may turn severe until 9 PM, or so, by producing large hail and damaging winds. Late tonight until mid morning Wednesday, there is a roughly 25% chance that patchy low clouds will produce MVFR conditions on parts of the eastern plains mainly south of I-40. Otherwise, Wednesday will feature dry weather with gusty winds in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

We will continue to observe bouts of dry and gusty westerlies with the low layer moisture periodically fighting its way westward into NM, true-to-form for early June. For the rest of today, areas between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain will continue to see high-based showers and mostly dry thunderstorms while areas farther east tend with wetter, stronger storms capable of soaking downpours in addition to the gusty winds and hail. This will keep western to central areas under a threat for new lightning ignitions while prevailing winds stay gusty. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for west central to northwestern zones where southwesterly winds are strongest, occasionally gusting to 35 to 40 mph. Storms will shift into the east central NM plains this evening and die off before midnight, followed by excellent humidity recoveries there through Wednesday morning.

Breezy to windy conditions will resume again Wednesday with many northern zones forecast to observe gusts of 25 to 35 mph with the strongest gusts concentrated over the northeastern quadrant of NM. Winds will turn more westerly, drying things out, even in the eastern plains. The Fire Weather Watch will continue for this northeastern area, as confidence was not high enough to upgrade due to rain that will occur this evening, potentially increasing fuel moisture and lowering ERC's.

Winds will undergo a very slight reduction in speed on Thursday, but hot, dry, and breezy to locally windy conditions are still forecast. The Tusas and Jemez mountains seem to be the best candidates to observe the strongest gusts of 25 to 35 mph. The localized nature of these gusts will preclude the issuance of a Watch for these northern mountain zones, but locally critical conditions will be met.

A significant moisture surge is still on tap for the eastern half of NM via a backdoor front early Friday, followed by another on Sunday. This will reintroduce chances for wetting rainfall to the eastern zones Friday through early next week while areas west of the Rio Grande tend to observe more virga and dry thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 54 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 86 46 88 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 88 53 88 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 89 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 49 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 49 88 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 58 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 48 94 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 52 97 53 97 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 79 45 82 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 87 61 88 / 20 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 51 88 54 90 / 30 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 83 52 85 / 20 0 0 0 Red River....................... 42 77 42 78 / 30 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 79 37 81 / 40 0 0 0 Taos............................ 50 86 51 88 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 86 52 86 / 30 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 52 94 54 95 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 89 58 90 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 93 55 93 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 94 66 95 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 96 65 96 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 98 58 98 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 97 63 97 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 100 61 98 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 97 61 97 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 98 58 97 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 98 62 98 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 98 59 97 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 94 63 93 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 96 63 96 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 101 66 100 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 89 59 89 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 57 91 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 55 90 57 91 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 92 53 92 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 87 57 88 / 20 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 56 92 58 91 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 90 58 91 / 20 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 94 66 94 / 20 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 87 57 88 / 20 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 49 87 51 79 / 30 0 0 0 Raton........................... 49 91 51 87 / 30 0 0 0 Springer........................ 52 93 52 90 / 40 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 52 89 54 89 / 30 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 95 62 87 / 30 0 0 0 Roy............................. 56 93 57 87 / 30 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 63 100 62 97 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 97 62 96 / 50 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 101 68 98 / 60 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 65 99 68 98 / 30 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 100 69 100 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 100 65 99 / 40 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 68 102 68 103 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 61 96 64 97 / 30 0 0 0 Elk............................. 59 93 62 93 / 20 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-123.