textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico through this weekend, except northeast New Mexico today. Record high temperatures are expected on several days over central and western New Mexico.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

- Smoke from wildfires in Utah, Nevada, and Colorado may begin to impact are quality across northern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 540 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Added PoPs across portions of Quay, Harding, Union, and San Miguel Counties to account for light showers across the area this morning. Updated products will be out shortly.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

New Mexico still remains on the eastern end of an elongated area of high pressure, with the 00z sounding showing 500mb heights of 595dm. A weak shortwave can be seen on water vapor imagery moving west to east across eastern CO. This feature is generating a cold front surging down the Front Range and will enter northeast NM early this morning. As the front passes, winds may gust up to 35-40mph, with the highest likelihood of these gusts being located between Raton and Clayton. Not expecting wind gusts to approach 50mph, but will be monitoring for any needed short-lived Wind Advisories.

This front will push up against the central mountain chain later this morning and provide the easterly upslope flow needed for thunderstorm development. CAMs are differing slightly on the coverage of storms this afternoon, though timing is rather consistent (storms developing by 1pm, expanding in coverage thereafter). Given the forecast 0-6km bulk shear around 25-35kts, SBCAPE values above 1000-1500 J/kg, and a rather consistent orographic component, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are likely tomorrow. Initial storms will have the greater hail threat with the more robust updrafts, then as storms move off the high terrain, any semi-organized line will have a chance to produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Blowing dust may also be produced given the likelihood of an outflow boundary surging out ahead of storms.

Across central NM (including ABQ), storm chances are lower and will be highly dependent on any colliding outflow boundaries from storms in southwest and eastern NM. Outflow boundaries have a good chance of moving into the area given the forecast well-mixed layer, and any additional storms would likely have a threat of brief gusty winds. Regenerating outflow boundaries may also develop some showers across central NM which could last into the late evening hours, but there is currently low confidence of this. Across southwest NM, thunderstorms are likely to form over the high terrain with the chance of locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail. Areas that are saturated from previous rainfall will be more susceptible to localized flash flooding.

HRRR vertically integrated smoke modeling suggests that smoke from UT/NV/CO filters into northwest to central NM this afternoon, which may reduce air quality and affect those sensitive to particulates.

Hot temperatures are also expected to remain across the area with the high pressure firmly in place. Heat Advisories remain in effect for the areas near ABQ, Gallup, and Farmington. Temperatures are likely to get near and above 100F, with several daily record temperatures likely. The only area that won't experience above normal temperatures will be northeast NM behind this morning's cold front. Wednesday sets up very similarly to today, with additional isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast NM and hot temperatures areawide. However, the high pressure is forecast to shift further west and weaken a decameter, which may keep areas just below Heat Advisory criteria. Storm chances also remain across southwest NM.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The high pressure does not move a whole lot throughout the next several days. It meanders to center itself near AZ/UT by the latter half of this week while strengthening a decameter or two. Daily thunderstorm chances remain across the high terrain of the central mountain chain and the southwest mountains, with higher confidence in storms around the Gila Region. The severe thunderstorm threat looks to wane across northeast NM as the flow shifts more northerly, though cannot completely rule out an isolated strong storm across the central mountain chain later this week. The area of high pressure then looks to elongate once again going into the weekend and into next week. This may allow a few easterly waves to traverse its southern periphery and start to inject moisture into the region. Ensemble clustering suggests high confidence in this high pressure pattern occurring, though easterly waves can be very finicky in terms of development and influence. The CPC has outlined a slight to moderate risk of heavy rainfall for the time period of next Tuesday through Thursday, focused more on western NM into AZ. The overall pattern does look promising for precipitation, but will need to see the finer details ironed out more for confidence to increase.

Temperatures look to remain near to above average across the forecast area for the next several days as the effects of the high pressure are still felt. High 90s to low 100s will be common across lower elevation areas, and some higher elevation areas may creep into the high 80s to low 90s. Temperatures may slowly decrease across western NM later in the forecast period given the potential increase in moisture.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Isolated pockets of LLWS remain throughout eastern and southwestern NM through 14z as winds above the surface begin to weaken with sunrise. A backdoor front continues to push into northeast NM, bringing breezy northerly winds. Thunderstorms are likely to develop across the central mountain chain and the southwest mountains this afternoon. A few storms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail. Outflow from storms closer to KABQ/KAEG/KSAF may impact these terminals in the afternoon. There are low to very low chances for direct thunderstorm impacts to all TAF sites. Isolated showers may also develop after 02z in the central Rio Grande Valley this evening, but confidence continued to lower since the last TAF package, and therefore previous PROB30 groups were removed. Isolated LLWS instances may return overnight after 06z across eastern NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. A backdoor front is moving into eastern NM this morning, which is likely to cause northerly wind gusts up to 30- 40mph. Humidity values across northwest NM are likely to drop into the single digits, but the wind is forecast to remain below critical thresholds. Cannot rule out brief periods of near-critical fire weather near the Farmington area, however. Daily thunderstorm chances continue across the central mountain chain and the southwest mountains. Any developing storm continues to be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall. Hot temperatures will remain as well across a majority of the area throughout the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 101 66 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 98 54 96 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 96 62 94 60 / 0 5 5 0 Gallup.......................... 97 62 96 59 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 92 58 91 57 / 5 10 20 10 Grants.......................... 97 60 95 59 / 10 10 10 0 Quemado......................... 93 61 91 60 / 10 20 20 20 Magdalena....................... 93 66 90 65 / 30 40 40 5 Datil........................... 90 61 87 59 / 30 30 50 10 Reserve......................... 97 60 94 59 / 30 20 60 20 Glenwood........................ 100 63 93 63 / 30 20 60 20 Chama........................... 92 55 90 54 / 0 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 92 64 90 62 / 20 20 30 5 Pecos........................... 88 59 91 59 / 30 20 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 89 58 90 57 / 20 20 10 20 Red River....................... 82 48 80 48 / 30 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 83 42 83 42 / 40 20 20 10 Taos............................ 95 56 94 56 / 10 10 5 20 Mora............................ 84 54 88 54 / 50 20 30 20 Espanola........................ 99 63 97 62 / 10 20 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 93 65 92 63 / 30 20 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 63 95 61 / 20 20 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 99 70 96 68 / 30 30 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 68 98 68 / 20 30 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 103 68 100 67 / 20 30 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101 70 99 70 / 20 30 0 5 Belen........................... 101 67 100 66 / 20 40 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 102 68 100 67 / 20 30 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 101 65 100 65 / 20 40 5 0 Corrales........................ 103 70 100 69 / 20 30 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 101 67 100 66 / 20 40 5 0 Placitas........................ 97 68 96 66 / 20 30 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 101 69 99 68 / 20 30 0 5 Socorro......................... 103 72 100 71 / 20 50 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 63 90 62 / 30 30 10 5 Tijeras......................... 95 65 94 64 / 30 30 10 5 Edgewood........................ 93 61 94 59 / 30 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 58 95 57 / 30 30 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 87 60 91 60 / 20 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 93 62 93 61 / 30 40 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 92 63 91 62 / 20 30 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 97 68 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 88 62 86 61 / 20 5 30 10 Capulin......................... 80 55 85 55 / 20 30 40 30 Raton........................... 86 55 87 54 / 50 40 30 30 Springer........................ 88 56 92 56 / 40 30 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 86 57 90 56 / 30 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 84 62 92 62 / 0 20 20 30 Roy............................. 86 61 91 60 / 0 20 10 50 Conchas......................... 96 69 99 67 / 0 20 0 40 Santa Rosa...................... 94 67 95 65 / 0 10 5 40 Tucumcari....................... 99 69 100 68 / 10 10 0 30 Clovis.......................... 98 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 99 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 99 70 98 69 / 0 5 0 10 Roswell......................... 102 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 67 95 67 / 0 0 5 10 Elk............................. 94 63 92 63 / 5 5 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205-207-219.