textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 417 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

- A warming trend will begin this weekend and continue into the middle of next week with temperatures rising well above average most places starting Monday. - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1214 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

The shortwave trough that brought wind and snow to much of the area today is already in northern Kansas, with the backdoor front associated with it inching into far northeastern NM as of Midnight. There are some low clouds accompanied with the frontal passage but these should dissipate as it encounters dry air funneling in from the northwest. Patches of low clouds associated with some remnant moisture will continue to develop across the western and northern high terrain tonight, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. It will be the coldest night in a while for many areas, with stronger valley inversions developing as the boundary layer decouples.

Temperatures will begin to moderate this afternoon as dry northwest flow develops over New Mexico. Other than a light northerly breeze in the eastern plains, winds will be much lighter than they have been, helping to lower the fire danger that has persisted for days.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Rising 500 mb heights (and therefore increasing subsidence) will allow strong valley inversions to develop Saturday night, with temperatures in the mid-20s or lower in all areas, and very cold single digits or colder in mountain valleys such as the Moreno valley. Ridging will continue to amplify over The Great Basin on Sunday, allowing temperatures to continue to rise and reach a few degrees above seasonal normals.

The ridge over The Great Basin will begin to break down early next week, however the jet stream will stay north of New Mexico, keeping the area dry with above average temperatures and relatively light winds. The jet will begin to nudge southward by mid-week, resulting in stronger wind speeds, generally along and east of the central mountain chain. The compressional heating from these downsloping breezes will increase temperatures significantly in the east, with temperatures reaching into the 80s as far north as San Miguel County. The northwest flow will leave eastern NM vulnerable to dry backdoor frontal intrusions mid to late week, which will bounce temperatures around out there. The pattern is expected to remain largely unchanged late week, with northwest flow aloft and periodic backdoor fronts. There is a low chance (~25%) that short wave perturbations make it far enough south to bring some light snow to the northern mountains, but most ensemble means show no precipitation through the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Patchy low clouds (less than 500 ft) have developed in the San Juan River Valley near KFMN early this morning and will likely stick around for a few hours before eventually dissipating this morning. A weak backdoor front will continue its trek southward down the eastern plains tonight, with a light north breeze in its wake. Mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail at most terminals through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

A break in the high fire danger arrives today, with much lighter winds in the wake of a Pacific and backdoor frontal passage. Humidities will still be quite low (less than 15% along the RGV and in eastern NM), with higher values in the northwest where temperatures will be cooler. Temperatures will warm the next few days, rising well above seasonal averages early next week as ridging builds over The Great Basin. Through Monday, ventilation will be poor in western and central areas, with fair values in the east. Dry northwest flow aloft will intensify early to mid-next week as the jet stream gradually dips down in the southern Rockies. This will increase winds along and east of the central mountain chain, with critical fire weather conditions likely returning for at least the eastern plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Periodic dry backdoor frontal intrusions are likely mid to late week in eastern NM, knocking down temps slightly and increasing humidities. The pattern will change little late week, with low humidities, warm temperatures, and a light to moderate northwest breeze in most areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 40 17 51 23 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 41 3 51 13 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 41 17 51 23 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 9 55 15 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 45 21 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 46 14 56 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 27 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 46 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 57 21 64 25 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 61 24 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 36 7 45 18 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 22 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 45 18 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 16 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 31 11 40 20 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 37 -3 46 11 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 42 9 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 45 14 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 49 15 58 22 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 43 23 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 20 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 30 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 27 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 24 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 52 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 52 20 61 24 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 25 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 52 22 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 25 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 24 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 47 19 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 13 58 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 19 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 48 21 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 48 21 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 15 51 20 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 45 13 54 19 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 48 12 58 18 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 45 17 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 47 18 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 53 20 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 50 21 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 53 19 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 53 23 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 55 22 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 20 58 23 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 56 22 59 26 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.