textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026 - Thunderstorm activity threatening cloud-to-ground lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and brief locally heavy rain will favor portions of eastern NM through Friday.

- There is a minor risk of low visibility from patchy fog over parts of eastern NM Thursday morning.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions return to western NM each afternoon today through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered shower activity remains over far northeastern NM, associated with a stretched and deformed 574dm H5 trough/low making its way northeastward into southeastern CO and western KS. Elevated boundary layer moisture remained over much of NM with dewpoints ranging from the 30s toward the AZ border to 40s in the Rio Grande Valley, and 50s across the eastern plains toward TX. The resulting low clouds that developed last night and persisted into this morning have mostly burned off. Clearing skies will allow for diurnal heating to tap into the remnant boundary layer moisture to develop a healthy cu field over the high terrain today. The best chances for this crop to evolve into thunderstorm activity will be along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Modest easterly steering flow will track this activity eastward across the northeastern plains of NM toward TX this evening. Drier southwesterly flow will lower humidity and keep things dry along and west of the Rio Grande Valley.

Outflow from convective activity over northeastern NM will push a boundary of lower level moisture back south and westward thru east- central NM up to the east slopes of the central mountain chain tonight into Thursday morning. This boundary will meet up with southerly return flow pushing low-level Gulf moisture into southeastern NM. This advection of moisture into the central highlands and eastern plains will likely result in a batch of low stratus and patchy fog over portions of eastern NM Thursday morning, clearing by the mid-to-late morning hours. While today's deformed upper low over northeastern NM will be replaced by a shortwave ridge of high pressure with its center axis placed over eastern NM, southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a nearly stalled ~560dm H5 low over central CA will not have changed much relative to today. However, there will still be enough shear and forcing to allow for a few isolated to scattered thunderstorm cells to develop along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. The latest HiRes CAM runs are favoring CI over the southern Sangre de Cristo's and Capitan Mts near or just after 12pm MDT. While there is higher confidence for CI based on the larger synoptic scale forcing mechanisms, there is less confidence for the strength these thunderstorms could reach based on ensemble SBCAPE values ranging from 300-1200 J/kg. That will all be dependent upon how much boundary layer moisture from the aforementioned convective outflows from northeastern NM and return flow from the Gulf can reach into this area. Otherwise, the main convective mode will be individual cells with secondary convection later in the afternoon and evening out over the highlands and east- central plains where colliding outflow boundaries meet.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

The ~560dm H5 low over central CA finally formalizes its travel plans and begins to track eastward over NV and UT Friday. The resulting strengthening southwesterly flow aloft bringing drier air into western and central NM will increase shear and sharpen a dryline feature N-S over eastern NM. Afternoon convection will favor development this dryline feature Friday afternoon. The increasing 0- 6km bulk shear reaching 35-45kts alongside 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across eastern NM will allow for a few strong to severe thunderstorm cells. SPC has already introduced a marginal risk of severe weather in this area for Friday afternoon. Any thunderstorm will quickly track to the E/NE toward the TX/OK Panhandles.

Dry air advances through eastern NM into TX/OK by Saturday morning setting the stage for a dry weekend with modest and typical Spring afternoon breezes and locally windy conditions across the state. Thereafter, a broad area of weak high pressure builds over the state and west TX alongside modest southeasterly surface return flow advecting Gulf moisture back westward into NM. This will set the stage for steadily increasing coverage of afternoon thunderstorms with slow storm motions each day heading into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR ceilings have mostly burned off over southeastern NM near KROW, but a scattered crop of cumulus remains. Afternoon thunderstorms today will favor areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, tracking eastward toward TX thru the late afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow from this activity will push back westward tonight thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. Have included a gusty east canyon wind at KSAF and KABQ up to 24 to 28kts. Otherwise, VFR will prevail thru western NM and into the Rio Grande Valley with chances for IFR/MVFR stratus ceilings and patchy fog developing again over eastern NM Thursday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Drier southwesterly flow aloft will bring in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions to western NM each afternoon through Friday. Areas along and west of Continental Divide will feature afternoon breezy to windy conditions alongside humidity bottoming out to 5 to 15 percent. This will expand eastward across central and eastern NM this weekend. However, recent rainfall thru the eastern half of NM will continue to lower ERCs and fuel receptiveness to any new sparks. Higher moisture and good to excellent recoveries returns to eastern NM Monday and early next week as western NM remains dry. Chances for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms increases mainly along the central mountain chain next week as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 49 87 51 83 / 0 5 5 5 Dulce........................... 39 82 43 79 / 0 5 20 20 Cuba............................ 45 78 47 77 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 38 81 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 81 44 80 / 0 5 5 0 Quemado......................... 43 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 45 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 41 82 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 46 86 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 76 41 72 / 0 5 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 51 77 54 75 / 0 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 44 77 47 74 / 5 20 40 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 76 49 73 / 5 5 10 20 Red River....................... 37 67 41 64 / 10 10 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 33 72 40 68 / 10 30 20 60 Taos............................ 40 79 46 76 / 0 5 10 20 Mora............................ 43 75 47 72 / 20 50 30 50 Espanola........................ 48 84 53 82 / 0 5 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 50 78 54 76 / 0 10 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 81 52 78 / 0 10 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 85 59 83 / 0 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 86 55 84 / 0 10 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 88 54 87 / 0 10 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 86 56 85 / 0 10 10 10 Belen........................... 47 88 52 87 / 0 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 53 86 56 85 / 0 10 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 47 87 51 86 / 0 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 53 87 56 86 / 0 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 48 87 52 86 / 0 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 54 82 57 81 / 0 20 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 52 86 56 85 / 0 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 54 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 79 54 78 / 5 20 20 10 Tijeras......................... 49 81 53 79 / 0 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 46 81 51 80 / 0 20 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 82 47 81 / 0 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 45 76 50 75 / 5 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 45 81 49 80 / 0 20 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 46 80 51 78 / 0 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 83 58 81 / 0 20 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 50 75 54 75 / 5 50 20 20 Capulin......................... 39 72 46 70 / 30 20 10 30 Raton........................... 41 77 47 75 / 30 30 20 40 Springer........................ 43 78 49 76 / 30 30 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 45 75 49 72 / 20 50 30 50 Clayton......................... 47 77 52 77 / 30 10 20 20 Roy............................. 45 75 51 73 / 30 10 30 40 Conchas......................... 50 83 55 80 / 20 5 30 40 Santa Rosa...................... 49 79 53 76 / 10 20 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 50 85 56 82 / 10 5 20 40 Clovis.......................... 53 85 57 81 / 10 10 20 50 Portales........................ 53 86 57 82 / 10 10 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 52 83 55 80 / 10 10 30 30 Roswell......................... 57 87 60 85 / 5 5 30 20 Picacho......................... 52 82 56 81 / 10 30 40 30 Elk............................. 49 82 54 82 / 5 30 30 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.