textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico over the next week as several backdoor cold fronts press through the area. Warmest conditions are expected Sunday and again mid week, while the coldest conditions are expected Saturday.

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1257 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

After last night's backdoor cold front, it remains cool across eastern NM with temperatures in the 30s and 40s as of 12pm. Very little warming is forecast as the cool airmass sits over eastern NM today. North to northwest upper level flow over the region is contributing to much of the breezy conditions across central and western NM through this afternoon. A rogue gust of 40mph is possible near Farmington, but otherwise gusts up to 30mph are likely. Rather benign conditions continue throughout the day outside of the breezy winds, that is until our next backdoor front begins to move into eastern NM tonight, mainly after sundown. This front will bring reinforcing cold air to much of eastern NM, with lows dropping into the teens to single digits. Winds behind the front should not be as strong as last night's front, so apparent temperatures are likely to flirt with 0 but not go much below if they do. Along with colder air, there is a low chance for snow flurries to develop in far northeast NM after midnight tonight. The low levels of the atmosphere will be rather dry, but there is near saturation forecast in the DGZ, so would not be surprised to see a few snowflakes late tonight. However, no appreciable snow accumulation is expected. The cold air should move into the central mountain chain late tonight and enhance the drainage winds, so it will likely be a chilly morning for residents in Santa Fe and other towns close to steep slopes.

The reinforced cold air remains settled in eastern NM Saturday as a surface high remains situated over the central and southern Great Plains. Many locales across eastern NM will struggle to break 40-45F for high temperatures tomorrow, with northeast and mountainous locations struggling to break the freezing mark. These temperatures are up to 15F below average for mid to late January, to put it in perspective. Temperatures in central and western NM remain rather unaffected by the cold front, with highs in the 40s to 50s expected. Stiff north to northwest flow is expected again across western NM, with these gusts likely mixing down to the surface. Most gusts are likely to peak around 30mph, with a wider coverage area than today (Friday). This may cause nuisance crosswinds on east-west roadways such as I-40 west of ABQ.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1257 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The upper level flow shifts more northwest in nature, contributing to the development of a surface trough. With that, westerly winds are favored to increase across the common windy areas of east- central NM (Central Highlands into Guadalupe and De Baca Counties). As a result, these downsloping west winds will skyrocket temperatures across eastern NM into the high 50s and 60s, which could be as much as a 25F increase from Saturday. This warm up will be rather short lived for the plains as another backdoor front looks to enter the state late Sunday into Monday. Deterministic models have been shoving the surface high closer to the eastern plains, which favors this front reaching the gaps of the central mountain chain and producing a canyon wind, but with MOS guidance not too fond of the potential wind speed, confidence is low on any impactful canyon wind event.

Hopefully we don't sound like a broken record, but models are depicting another backdoor front entering NM mid to late next week (Wednesday-Thursday timeframe). While the details become fuzzy given model divergence, ensemble clustering favors the overall synoptic pattern to continue through this time next week. Why is there a repeated barrage of backdoor fronts? The large scale pattern has placed a spinning upper level low across the Hudson Bay area in Canada, and as this low spins mostly in place, several shortwaves round its periphery, moving usually due south to southeast given the orientation of the polar jet. These shortwaves generate cyclogenesis across the Great Plains, which sends these cold fronts surging down the Plains and Front Range.

Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of next week, though ensembles and deterministic models favor the upper level flow becoming more zonal over time. Precipitation chances look to increase late next week into next weekend, but run to run consistency in models have been poor, so confidence is low on the likelihood of precip.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Winds at the sfc will be light throughout the night, with stronger gusts near the high terrain creating areas of LLWS. A moderate northwest to northerly breeze is expected again in western and central areas with light east winds generally in eastern NM. High clouds will continue streaming in from the north tonight, decreasing in coverage this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Dry conditions will prevail as well, outside of the low chance of some snow flurries in northeast NM tonight. Breezy north to northwest winds are very likely across western NM through this afternoon and for Saturday afternoon as well, with gusts up to 30mph. Minimum humidity values sparsely drop into the teens throughout the week, but only in isolated areas and likely not collocating with any stronger winds. Ventilation rates remain good today and tomorrow, but become poor going into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 24 48 21 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 13 44 13 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 19 43 18 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 16 47 14 53 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 20 43 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 17 46 15 57 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 20 45 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 27 47 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 24 45 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 19 54 19 63 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 23 61 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 12 39 15 45 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 22 40 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 17 39 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 15 33 19 47 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 10 25 15 41 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 4 31 6 45 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 10 38 10 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 14 37 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 17 46 17 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 21 40 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 19 43 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 30 47 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 27 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 25 52 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 28 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 20 53 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 26 50 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 21 52 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 27 51 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 23 52 21 53 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 28 46 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 28 50 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 27 55 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 25 42 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 26 43 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 22 43 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 17 44 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 16 39 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 24 44 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 23 44 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 26 49 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 25 42 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 11 29 13 54 / 5 10 0 0 Raton........................... 12 35 11 56 / 5 5 0 0 Springer........................ 13 37 11 58 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 14 38 17 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 18 33 20 59 / 10 20 0 0 Roy............................. 16 35 16 56 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 19 40 17 61 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 20 40 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 18 40 19 61 / 5 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 19 39 20 60 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 19 41 19 61 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 20 43 17 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 23 47 18 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 22 46 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 22 48 19 65 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.