textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 415 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026 - Slick travel conditions from the next round of valley rain and high elevations now favoring the northern half of New Mexico forecast this weekend.

- Low (10% - 20%) risk of exacerbated flooding impacts over northwestern NM this weekend.

- Calm and mostly clear conditions forecast today and Monday, with unsettled weather in between this weekend, and returning Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1219 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

A highly amplified ridge of high pressure continues its residency over the region today with calm winds, pleasant Fall temperatures, and clear skies. Friday sees this stretch of calm and tranquil weather steadily give way to a fast moving storm system skirting the southern tier of the state late day through Friday night. Much of the precipitation associated with this system will stick to the southern third of the state or so. Some places further north along the Continental Divide may get some light rain from this system as well Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Saturday begins the long term period with a 2nd Pacific storm system crossing the northern tier of the state. An H3 100-120kt jetmax rounding this trough's southern tier will help it close off somewhere over northern NM or just lee of the Rockies over northeastern NM Saturday night. Combined with enough moisture and favorable orographics along west facing slopes of the northern mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of snow will be favored in those areas by Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts upwards of 4 to 6 inches will favor the peaks of the Tusas Mountains. Forecast confidence is rather high regarding this, as there is little spread in the NBM probabilities for snow amounts over the northern mountains. The difference b/w the 25th and 75th percentiles for snow accumulations is as little as 1 to 2 inches. Meanwhile, showers of rain will also favor the eastern plains of NM Saturday and Saturday night.

Snow levels look to start off around 9,500' Saturday, falling to 8,500' by Sunday morning as lower elevations of central and northern NM look to receive rain from this system. Despite relatively light rain or liquid equivalent precipitation amounts ranging from 0.10" to 0.50", there still exists a low and minor (10% to 20%) risk of exacerbated flooding impacts through northwestern NM due to that areas still very moist ground conditions.

Precipitation looks to linger the longest over northeastern NM alongside breezy northerly to northeasterly winds as the H5 closed low ejects out over the TX/OK Panhandles. Clearing conditions then fill in west to east over the state as the next ridge of high pressure slides over the state by Monday.

A more active weather pattern returns Tuesday into the middle of next week with Pacific storm systems rolling into the western CONUS. The next of which looks to bring another round of valley rain and high mountain snow to New Mexico sometime late Tuesday through early Thursday. Various numerical model suites vary in their speed and track of this storm system over the region, specifically with how fast this system ejects northeastward over the state.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR prevails with light and variable winds and clear skies today and tonight. Northerly drainage winds at KSAF will be the one exception this morning. Any potential for isolated patchy fog development near KROW this morning is exceptionally low.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

High pressure ridging remains overhead with widespread poor ventilation today. Southwesterlies increase Friday ahead of approaching storm systems, bringing a mixed bag of poor to good ventilation. The first storm skirts southern NM late Friday and Friday night bringing light precipitation there. Scattered wetting precipitation with gusty westerlies accompanies the 2nd storm system as it crosses northern NM, favoring west facing slopes and the higher elevations of the northern mountains with rain favoring the eastern plains. Conditions clear west to east over the state through the day Sunday. Another ridge of high pressure brings a one day break with calm winds and mostly clear conditions Monday ahead of the next stretch of unsettled weather arriving sometime Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 36 61 40 / 0 0 5 20 Dulce........................... 63 29 59 33 / 0 0 5 40 Cuba............................ 60 33 56 35 / 0 0 5 20 Gallup.......................... 63 32 60 35 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 61 32 57 33 / 0 0 20 20 Grants.......................... 62 33 59 35 / 0 0 20 20 Quemado......................... 62 33 58 35 / 0 0 20 20 Magdalena....................... 60 38 58 38 / 0 0 30 20 Datil........................... 59 32 55 34 / 0 0 30 20 Reserve......................... 65 33 60 37 / 0 0 20 30 Glenwood........................ 69 40 65 41 / 0 0 20 50 Chama........................... 57 31 53 31 / 0 0 5 40 Los Alamos...................... 60 38 56 38 / 0 0 5 20 Pecos........................... 63 32 59 34 / 0 0 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 31 55 33 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 51 27 48 27 / 0 0 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 57 17 53 25 / 0 0 5 10 Taos............................ 61 28 58 32 / 0 0 5 10 Mora............................ 62 31 59 32 / 0 0 5 20 Espanola........................ 65 34 62 36 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 61 34 58 37 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 33 60 37 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 40 62 42 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 39 63 43 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 36 65 42 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 38 63 42 / 0 0 5 20 Belen........................... 66 35 64 41 / 0 0 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 67 37 64 42 / 0 0 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 66 33 64 41 / 0 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 67 37 64 42 / 0 0 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 66 33 64 41 / 0 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 64 39 62 41 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 66 38 63 42 / 0 0 5 20 Socorro......................... 66 42 65 43 / 0 0 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 36 57 37 / 0 0 5 20 Tijeras......................... 62 37 59 39 / 0 0 5 20 Edgewood........................ 63 33 61 37 / 0 0 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 65 27 63 36 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 62 36 59 38 / 0 0 5 20 Mountainair..................... 62 35 60 38 / 0 0 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 62 36 61 39 / 0 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 64 42 63 43 / 0 0 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 60 38 59 39 / 0 0 20 40 Capulin......................... 62 33 59 36 / 0 0 5 10 Raton........................... 66 29 63 33 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 68 28 65 34 / 0 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 64 32 61 35 / 0 0 5 20 Clayton......................... 69 39 64 41 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 66 34 62 39 / 0 0 5 10 Conchas......................... 71 37 70 44 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 70 38 68 43 / 0 0 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 71 38 69 46 / 0 0 5 20 Clovis.......................... 69 40 67 45 / 0 0 5 20 Portales........................ 70 39 68 46 / 0 0 5 30 Fort Sumner..................... 69 38 68 45 / 0 0 5 20 Roswell......................... 68 41 68 48 / 0 0 10 40 Picacho......................... 67 42 65 44 / 0 0 10 20 Elk............................. 65 38 64 42 / 0 0 20 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.