textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Thunderstorm activity will favor northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are expected.

- Rapid fire spread will be possible from any new spark this afternoon from incredibly dry conditions and strengthening westerly winds through the northwestern quadrant of NM.

- A moderate heat risk remains for all lower elevation locales this weekend where highs will flirt with 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Convective debris clouds will continue to clear over central and eastern NM early this morning beneath a ridge of high pressure. Some low stratus will attempt to redevelop later tonight over portions of northeastern and east-central NM close to TX border. Otherwise, the ridge axis will continue to flatten as it slides eastward later today. This will open the door for very dry westerlies to advance the dryline eastward across the eastern plains of NM this afternoon. The downslope compressional warming component to these westerlies advancing into the eastern plains will help warm temperatures considerably into the 90s to near 100F. Thunderstorm chances fall considerably as well, but did maintain isolated chances for a few spot storms to develop along the aforementioned dryline. Bulk shear will be the most conducive for a strong to severe storm to develop over far northeastern NM, reaching 40+ kts. The SPC has laid down a severe weather risk that includes a marginal area clipping eastern portions of Union and northern Quay Counties.

Westerlies advance all the way to and past the TX border Sunday. Lowering pressure heights will allow for highs to fall back a few degrees into the 80s and low 90s over western NM, ranging from the 80s near Taos to upper 90s in ABQ to 100F in Socorro in the Rio Grande Valley, and low 100s over a large portion of the eastern plains. A Heat Advisory may be necessary for Roswell where the current forecast high is 106F. The other note about Sunday is how dry it will be and for how long. Humidity will fall below 10 percent most areas, staying there 12 to 20 hours for many lower to middle elevation areas across northern and central NM.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Monday begins the long term period with another cold front backing south and west thru eastern NM Sunday night into Monday morning. Highs across eastern NM fall back 10F to 15F relative to Sunday's readings. Low stratus are likely to develop behind this front across eastern NM, leaving the potential for forecast highs for Monday to fall a few more degrees. Conditions look to be far too stable behind the front to allow for any convective activity, despite the influx of low-level moisture. Easterly upslope flow along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain looks to be the main forcing mechanism for any thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon. Suppression beneath a building 597dm H5 high along the international border will limit these chances to the Sangre de Cristo Mts closer to the CO border.

The season's first notable rendition of the monsoon high continues to build over or near the NM Bootheel or southeastern AZ Tuesday and deeper into next week. This will bring some moisture upwards from Gulf of CA into the Desert Southwest allowing for a steady uptick in afternoon thunderstorm activity over western NM where gusty winds and dry lightning will be a main threat from any passing storm. Storms developing along the central mountain chain rolling eastward will be more efficient rain producers. Highs areawide will also warm, with 100s through southern NM creeping northward into areas like Glenwood in the San Francisco River Valley, Socorro, and Roswell.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Thunderstorm activity has ceased across the forecast area with a few light showers spotting the eastern half of the state. Strong east canyon winds continue to push thru KABQ and KSAF, gusting 25-30kts at KABQ. KABX radar is showing indications of winds wrapping around the northern side of the Sandia Mts and southward thru the metro. This is likely to dampen easterly winds at KABQ in the coming hour or two. This is supported by the dial-in ob at KAEG of winds at 060 northeast. Winds area wide will dampen overnight into Saturday morning with clearing skies. The exception will be some borderline MVFR ceilings pushing into far northeastern NM from KTCC to KCAO. Otherwise, looking at breezy to windy westerlies setting up across western and central NM Saturday afternoon, with southerlies holding onto far eastern NM. A few spot isolated thunderstorms may develop along the dryline as well, but coverage is too low to include in the KROW TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Western NM: Significant drying continues today and Sunday with 6 to 12 hours of single-digit humidity today and 12 to 20 hours Sunday. Breezy to windy westerlies build this afternoon alongside deep layer mixing upwards of 13k ft (fairly normal for mid-June), which will allow for ~5hrs of RFTI's reaching 4-6 across the northwestern quadrant of the state where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Winds back off Sunday, limiting critical fire weather potential. Dry conditions persist Monday with some moisture building northward into the area from the Gulf of CA around the season's first monsoon high building over southwestern NM. This will yield a threat of dry lightning and gusty and erratic winds across western NM beginning Tuesday and lasting each afternoon thru next week.

Eastern NM: The dryline advances eastward toward TX today, reaching roughly half way b/w the central mtn chain and the TX border. Dry and breezy to windy southwesterlies will yield short-lived critical conditions thru the Northeast Highlands this afternoon, not long enough however to warrant an expansion of the Red Flag Warning. A recent ESA Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite pass reveals NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) indicative of a patchwork of vegetative greenup in the fine fuels there, likely following the patchwork hit-and-miss rainfall pattern there in recent weeks. Dry westerlies with single-digit humidity advance thru eastern NM to the TX line Sunday, but with lesser wind speeds. The next cold front arrives thru eastern NM and pushing thru the gaps of the central mtn chain into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Look for a return of good to excellent recoveries next week. High temperatures fall back initially Monday, warming back into the 90s to near 100F thru the rest of the week. Afternoon thunderstorm chances also tick up Tuesday and beyond with storms across eastern NM being more efficient rain producers compared to the counterparts over western NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 93 52 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 42 88 42 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 53 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 90 44 90 44 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 48 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 92 47 91 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 89 49 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 92 60 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 88 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 91 46 94 46 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 94 52 97 51 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 82 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 76 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 35 80 35 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 88 46 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 51 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 96 55 95 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 89 56 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 53 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 61 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 64 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 100 61 100 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 63 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 60 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 99 63 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 62 99 58 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 62 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 63 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 101 65 102 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 60 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 92 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 92 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 50 93 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 89 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 93 57 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 95 66 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 63 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 88 53 91 51 / 20 0 0 10 Raton........................... 92 52 93 55 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 94 52 94 55 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 90 54 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 94 63 95 59 / 20 0 0 20 Roy............................. 92 57 94 59 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 100 64 101 64 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 96 65 97 61 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 99 68 102 65 / 10 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 96 67 101 63 / 20 10 0 0 Portales........................ 97 68 103 64 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 98 67 101 63 / 10 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 101 68 106 67 / 10 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 95 64 99 65 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 92 61 96 62 / 10 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-120-121.