textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 943 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

- A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers with mountain snow Friday through Saturday. A few inches of snow are forecast above 8,500ft and there is a chance for difficult travel conditions in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next week, especially Tuesday, with potential for more precipitation across western and northern NM.

- There is a threat for the rapid spread of fire across eastern NM early next week, especially with stronger winds on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1245 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Moist southwest flow aloft will persist over the region today and tonight ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Periodic waves of thicker cloud cover and slight southwest breezes will be the end result with temps generally 10 to 15F above normal. A couple light showers are possible across far northwest NM but most areas will not see measurable rainfall.

Moisture will continue increasing over NM Friday as the Pacific wave moves into AZ. There are a couple weak embedded low centers within the trough axis and their interaction will determine the eventual details on precip coverage, amounts, and timing of the unsettled weather Friday through Saturday. At this time, the system does not appear to be very impactful with the bulk of the beneficial precip confined to northern and western NM, as well as southeast NM. QPF in these areas is roughly 0.10 to 0.25", with locally higher amounts on the Cont Divide and the west-facing slopes of the northern mts. Snow levels are quite high given the unseasonably warm temps so advisory level accums will be confined mainly above 8,500 ft Friday and Friday evening before lowering to near 7,500 ft late Friday night and Saturday morning. Given only minor impacts expected and moderate uncertainty still with QPF placement, no Winter Weather Advisories will be issued just yet.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

By Saturday, lingering rain/snow over northeast and east-central NM will end as the upper wave moves east into TX/OK. Cooler air with breezy northerly winds over the state will make it feel chilly compared to recent days. Min temps Saturday night will fall below freezing for the entire area with brisk wind chills thru the evening.

A ridge will crest over NM Sunday with temps warming 5 to 15F above normal again under lighter winds and decreasing humidity. The ridge breaks down Monday with stronger southwest winds, even warmer temps, and lower humidity.

The next period of unsettled weather will arrive Tuesday/Wednesday as a large trough deepening into the western U.S. sends another wave of energy thru the southwest. Strong west/southwest winds, cooler temps, and even some rain/snow are possible for northern, central, and western NM. Eastern NM may contend with increasing fire danger with dry and windy conditions in place.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 943 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with low probabilities for MVFR conditions in showers at KGUP Friday morning. Otherwise, the development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs is forecast tonight into Friday as a Pacific low approaches from the southwest. Winds will generally be light through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

There are no critical fire weather conditions expected thru Sunday. A longwave trough deepening into the western U.S. beginning Monday may lead to a fire growing pattern over eastern NM thru Wednesday. Strong west/southwest winds with subcritical humidity and receptive fuel conditions on the plains may create a three-day fire weather event. The most widespread critical conditions at this time have the greatest potential on Tuesday. Unsettled weather may continue thru the end of next week with several more windy days for eastern NM. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on precip chances and just how low humidity may get across the plains late in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 35 53 34 / 5 10 70 50 Dulce........................... 59 27 53 27 / 40 5 80 70 Cuba............................ 58 32 53 30 / 10 5 80 80 Gallup.......................... 59 26 49 24 / 0 5 80 70 El Morro........................ 57 33 49 30 / 0 5 80 80 Grants.......................... 62 29 53 27 / 0 5 80 80 Quemado......................... 60 34 52 32 / 0 0 80 70 Magdalena....................... 63 41 56 35 / 0 5 70 80 Datil........................... 59 35 51 32 / 0 0 80 70 Reserve......................... 65 33 55 29 / 0 5 80 70 Glenwood........................ 67 37 60 30 / 0 5 80 70 Chama........................... 51 27 47 24 / 30 5 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 57 38 51 34 / 5 5 70 80 Pecos........................... 59 33 55 31 / 0 0 70 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 32 51 32 / 10 0 60 80 Red River....................... 46 27 42 27 / 10 0 70 80 Angel Fire...................... 52 21 49 21 / 10 5 60 80 Taos............................ 59 30 54 30 / 10 0 60 80 Mora............................ 60 31 54 29 / 5 0 50 80 Espanola........................ 64 32 59 34 / 5 0 60 80 Santa Fe........................ 59 38 55 35 / 5 5 70 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 35 56 34 / 0 5 70 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 45 59 40 / 0 5 70 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 42 60 39 / 0 5 70 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 39 62 37 / 0 5 70 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 40 60 39 / 0 5 70 80 Belen........................... 68 37 62 36 / 0 5 70 80 Bernalillo...................... 67 40 61 39 / 0 5 70 80 Bosque Farms.................... 68 36 62 35 / 0 5 70 80 Corrales........................ 68 39 61 38 / 0 5 70 80 Los Lunas....................... 68 36 62 36 / 0 5 70 80 Placitas........................ 62 41 57 39 / 0 5 70 80 Rio Rancho...................... 67 41 60 39 / 0 5 70 80 Socorro......................... 70 43 64 39 / 0 0 50 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 40 55 35 / 0 5 70 90 Tijeras......................... 60 41 56 36 / 0 5 70 90 Edgewood........................ 62 38 57 34 / 0 0 60 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 30 59 31 / 0 0 50 90 Clines Corners.................. 60 36 55 32 / 0 0 50 80 Mountainair..................... 63 38 59 34 / 0 0 60 90 Gran Quivira.................... 64 38 59 35 / 0 0 50 80 Carrizozo....................... 67 43 62 37 / 0 0 50 70 Ruidoso......................... 62 41 56 35 / 0 0 50 40 Capulin......................... 62 31 56 29 / 0 0 20 80 Raton........................... 64 29 58 31 / 0 0 30 80 Springer........................ 67 29 59 32 / 0 0 30 80 Las Vegas....................... 64 33 57 31 / 0 0 40 80 Clayton......................... 68 36 59 38 / 0 0 10 80 Roy............................. 67 34 58 36 / 0 0 10 80 Conchas......................... 75 36 65 37 / 0 0 20 80 Santa Rosa...................... 70 39 63 37 / 0 0 30 70 Tucumcari....................... 76 38 66 37 / 0 0 20 70 Clovis.......................... 75 44 68 40 / 0 0 30 50 Portales........................ 75 40 70 40 / 0 0 30 50 Fort Sumner..................... 73 39 66 38 / 0 0 30 50 Roswell......................... 74 44 67 42 / 0 0 20 30 Picacho......................... 73 43 65 38 / 0 0 20 30 Elk............................. 72 40 64 34 / 0 0 30 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.