textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Dry conditions will prevail around the region through the weekend as temperatures gradually moderate.

- There is a low chance that a winter storm brings mountain snow, lower elevation rain/snow mix, and colder temperatures around the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1203 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

High clouds will continue to stream across the region from west to east today as a shortwave ridge traverses the state. Westerly winds aloft will trend stronger through the day, deepening a weak lee-side sfc Low in southeast CO. This will create a southwest to west breeze in eastern NM, with light winds elsewhere. Winds will increase in the northern mountains overnight as a shortwave trough skirts the southern Rockies. There is a low chance of some mtn wave activity along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, but most models are not showing a stable enough layer for mountain waves to crash down to the sfc. Winds will turn around to the north overnight as a dry Pacific front associated with the shortwave trough moves from north to south across the forecast area. There will be a light to moderate northerly breeze in most areas, with some stronger gusts in the far eastern plains where the front will be stronger.

The affect on temperatures will be minimal, with highs on Thursday afternoon only a few degrees colder than today in most areas and actually warmer across the southeast thanks to the continued snow melt. Dry northwest flow on Thursday will become more northerly Friday as ridging amplifies over the Great Basin.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

The amplified pattern over the western CONUS will result in another strong trough plunging down from the Midwest into the Southeastern US Friday into the weekend, sending a strong cold front southward down the Central Plains. Eastern NM will be on the western fringes of this front, but it will be enough to cool temperatures a bit across the eastern plains Friday night into Saturday. The current forecast suggests only a 5 to 15 degree temperature drop, although models have notably been trending cooler. There is a low chance of some light snow along the leading edge of the front, but it will simply be too dry for more than a few flurries. Temperatures moderate by Sunday as 500mb heights rise even further (above the 90th percentile). The ridge is expected to break down early next week, with the pattern becoming more progressive. Exactly how this happens remains a mystery, given that deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a myriad of potential solutions. Around 30% of models keep the area dry, with dry northerly flow persisting. A minority of models (about 15%), show a decent winter storm with moderate snow accumulations in the northern mountains and much colder temperatures ushered in by a backdoor cold front. The current forecast introduces light mountain snow/lower elevation rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday which is the most likely solution (55% of models) at this point.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light in most areas today outside of the eastern plains where a southwest to west breeze will develop in response to a lee side low in eastern CO. Winds will strengthen overnight in and around the northern mtns as a shortwave skirts northern NM. There is a low chance of some mtn wave activity along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns during the overnight period as well, with the best chance between 03Z and 09Z. The shortwave will send a dry cold front across the area from north to south, with the strongest winds in eastern NM where LLWS will likely occur between 03Z and 15Z in most areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

A light to moderate breeze will develop this afternoon in eastern NM in response to a weak lee side Low in SE Colorado. Mountaintop winds will strengthen through the night in the northern mountains as a shortwave skirts the southern Rockies. Winds turn around to the north behind a dry frontal passage tomorrow, with a light breeze in most areas, except the far eastern plains where there may be a few gusts up to 40 mph.

Widespread poor ventilation today improves Thursday, with the most notable improvements across the east. Ventilation becomes poor to fair again on Friday, remaining that way through the weekend as ridging builds in. Light mountain snow/lower elevation rain chances may return around the middle of next week, however forecast confidence remains low during this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 18 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 8 46 11 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 17 44 17 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 12 49 13 50 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 20 47 20 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 15 49 15 50 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 19 47 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 29 50 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 25 48 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 21 58 20 58 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 25 64 23 64 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 11 40 12 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 22 42 22 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 21 47 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 17 41 17 42 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 16 32 13 34 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 8 39 5 40 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 10 44 11 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 20 47 17 48 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 13 49 16 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 22 44 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 18 44 19 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 28 49 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 25 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 22 54 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 25 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 17 54 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 24 50 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 18 54 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 24 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 19 54 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 26 46 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 25 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 25 55 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 25 43 23 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 25 44 25 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 22 44 20 45 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 17 46 13 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 20 42 19 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 23 46 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 23 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 25 49 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 29 46 23 45 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 20 41 15 45 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 17 47 14 47 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 18 50 14 50 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 20 49 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 49 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 23 49 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 23 57 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 25 53 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 25 56 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 26 53 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 24 54 21 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 22 54 18 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 19 51 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 29 52 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 28 55 20 55 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.