textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico today could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of western and central New Mexico today will lead to potentially damaging downburst winds, patchy blowing dust, dry lightning, and a risk of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in an increasing risk for rapid fire spread across far western New Mexico today and across northeast New Mexico on Wednesday.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 142 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Sub-tropical moisture is being advected in from the south out ahead of a Great Basin trough. whilst low level moisture is surging dewpoints from the southeast. Isolated showers will begin to develop as early as sunrise in central NM, although rain will still struggle to reach the ground given the low boundary layer humidity. Coverage will expand during the afternoon with daytime heating helping to generate surface based convection. Coverage will be higher compared to Monday and storms will move faster given the increasing background flow. Conditions will be favorable for the development of severe storms capable of producing damaging outflow wind gusts across most of eastern NM. Dry air intruding from the west will favor very steep mid-level lapse rates, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening hours so storms with large hail cannot be ruled out either. Storms may try to cluster together in the eastern plains where activity could persist into the overnight hours. Interestingly, hi-res models are shutting down convection in the late evening , but global models are keeping it around until at least Midnight. Given the persistent moisture advection and steepening lapse rates, would hedge towards the later end time for storms.

A dry Pacific cold front will usher in drier air from the west overnight, with westerly breezes over the high terrain through the night. This drier air will shut down any convective activity on Wednesday. The drier air combined with a downsloping west wind will increase temperatures, with the biggest change in eastern NM (up to 6 degrees). Currently, there is a around a 60% chance that Roswell reaches 105F on Wednesday, with moderate chances of 100F+ across all of southeast NM and even the lower RGV near Socorro.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 142 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Thursday will be another dry day with modest westerly flow aloft. Breezes will prevail in most areas, with winds shifting around to the east in eastern NM as a backdoor front surges south and westward. Storms will likely generate along the front in Texas and there is a low chance that some of this nocturnal convection Thursday night extends into the eastern plains.

Confidence is increasing for at least a moderate east wind through the gaps of the central mtn chain and if there is any convection in eastern NM that could further increase potential wind gusts. The influx of moisture behind this front will lead to the development of at least scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon, focusing along and east of the central mountain chain. Recycled moisture will interact with northwest flow Saturday and Sunday, allowing for the continuation of afternoon and evening storms in northern and eastern NM. This is a favorable setup from severe storms, particularly in the northeastern third of the state. This pattern with dryline storms and northwest flow will likely persist into early next week, while the western half of the state remains dry and hot.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A batch of showers over the Cont. Divide will trek north and eastward early this morning, reaching the RGV between 14Z and 16Z. As a result, there could be a very brief period of showers, although no mention was included in the TAFs. More robust convection will develop this afternoon, focusing over central and eastern NM. Strong and erratic outflow wind gusts are likely, with the potential for gusts in excess of 50 knots, especially in eastern NM. Storms will cluster together this evening in eastern NM and could persist as late as 06Z in the eastern plains.

A brisk south to southwest breeze will prevail around the region today, with the strongest gusts (up to 35 knots) in far western and northeastern NM. Winds will attempt to turn around to the west with the passage of a dry front this evening and overnight, but terrain driven winds will dominate in many areas. LLWS will likely develop in northern NM after 03Z, impacting terminals such as KAXX and KRTN.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

South to southwest winds will trend stronger today in response to an approaching Great Basin trough. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will be commonplace around the state, with the strongest winds in far western NM and in the northeast. It will be very dry across western NM, with afternoon humidities as low as 5% near Farmington. There will be some moisture in central NM, but it will still be dry with humidities in the 15 to 25% range. As a result, gusty showers and a few storms across central NM will be capable of producing very strong outflow wind gusts, similar to Monday. It will be more moist across the east where a few storms could become severe and wetting rainfall is more likely.

The dry air in western NM today pushes eastward tonight into Wednesday with the passage of a dry cold front. Wednesday afternoon will be significantly drier compared to Tuesday, with single digit RH in most areas. Gusty west winds will create near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the northeast portion of the state, but conditions are currently not widespread enough to warrant an upgrade of the Fire Weather Watch. West winds trend weaker into Thursday, although there is still a low chance of critical fire weather conditions in the Northwest Plateau. It will remain dry across the west late week into the weekend, while rain chances return to central and eastern areas. Storm coverage will focus over the eastern plains each day, where multi-day rainfall totals will likely exceed 0.5" in most areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 93 56 93 55 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 44 87 45 / 40 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 85 52 88 53 / 30 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 89 46 90 48 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 85 50 87 50 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 89 52 91 53 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 87 50 89 51 / 10 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 86 59 91 59 / 30 5 0 0 Datil........................... 84 54 89 54 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 91 48 95 50 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 95 53 98 56 / 20 0 0 0 Chama........................... 78 43 81 44 / 40 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 84 59 88 59 / 30 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 84 54 88 54 / 30 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 52 85 51 / 40 20 0 0 Red River....................... 71 44 76 45 / 40 20 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 76 45 80 44 / 30 10 0 0 Taos............................ 84 51 88 50 / 30 10 0 0 Mora............................ 82 51 88 51 / 30 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 91 57 95 56 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 85 59 89 58 / 30 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 56 91 56 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 66 94 65 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 62 96 64 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 62 98 63 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 62 96 63 / 20 5 0 0 Belen........................... 95 59 99 60 / 20 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 62 97 62 / 20 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 59 98 61 / 20 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 94 63 97 63 / 20 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 60 98 62 / 20 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 90 63 93 62 / 20 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 93 62 96 62 / 20 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 97 65 101 65 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 59 90 59 / 30 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 88 58 92 58 / 20 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 89 56 92 56 / 20 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 55 93 54 / 20 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 85 57 88 57 / 20 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 88 57 92 57 / 20 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 88 58 92 58 / 20 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 91 65 95 66 / 10 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 60 88 63 / 20 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 84 50 89 53 / 40 20 0 0 Raton........................... 88 50 93 53 / 30 10 0 0 Springer........................ 90 53 95 53 / 30 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 90 54 / 50 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 93 61 97 62 / 30 10 0 0 Roy............................. 88 56 94 57 / 50 20 0 0 Conchas......................... 96 63 101 62 / 50 30 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 92 60 98 62 / 50 30 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 66 102 68 / 30 30 0 0 Clovis.......................... 94 66 100 68 / 20 30 0 0 Portales........................ 95 66 101 69 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 94 64 101 66 / 30 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 68 104 69 / 5 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 61 98 65 / 40 10 0 0 Elk............................. 91 60 96 64 / 20 10 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-123.