textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - There is a moderate risk of heat induced illness through lower elevation areas where highs peak in the 90s to low 100s each day. Localized major heat risk Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is a moderate risk of scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms producing gusty and erratic winds in western and central NM Tuesday through Friday.

- Dry and windy weather returns this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across northwest New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The frontal boundary that pushed through eastern NM has already mixed out so temperatures are rising and the humidity is dropping rapidly. The elongated ridge of high pressure to the south will continue to strengthen today as it nudges northward into southern New Mexico. Temperatures today will generally be a few degrees above average, except across the northeast where the cold air advection from last night was more pronounced. There is still a conditional Marginal Risk for severe storms in far northeastern Union County today. Almost all hi-res models (except for the FV3) are showing no convection developing in New Mexico, but there is a cu field that has developed just north of the Johnson and Bartlet Mesas, indicating a localized instability maxima. Shear will be sufficient for the development of supercells on the off chance that a storm or two does develop.

The monsoon ridge continues its slow trek northward Tuesday, likely reaching its max strength (~598mb) over south-central NM Tuesday afternoon. Hot and dry conditions will prevail underneath this ridge and a slew of Heat Advisories have been issued for central and southeast NM, including the Albuquerque and Roswell areas. Temperatures will even climb into the mid-90s in mountainous areas, including the Sacramento and Sandia/Manzano mountains. Mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California will creep northward into Arizona and far western NM Tuesday. Despite the subsidence from the ridge, this elevated moisture and instability should be enough for isolated virga showers and a few dry storms over the western high terrain during the afternoon hours. Surface humidities will be sub- 15% within the deep, well-mixed boundary layer so very little, if any of this rain will reach the ground. Inverted V soundings suggest the potential for very strong outflow wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours, which is of particular concern if there are fresh fire starts from dry lightning. There is once again a conditional Marginal risk for severe storms in far northeast NM Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for storms to develop along an outflow boundary created from a cluster of storms off to the north over SE Colorado/SW Kansas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The ridge over southern NM will begin to weaken and retreat southward on Wednesday. This along with a slight uptick in moisture will keep temps down a degree or two, with major heat risk confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley, including Socorro. Moisture will wrap around the monsoon ridge, blanketing much of western and northern NM on Wednesday. While PWATs will be trending upwards, the moisture will still not be deep enough to saturate the boundary layer so any convection that develops will be of the drier variety and any passing shower could produce strong to even damaging wind gusts in this environment. Shear will be stronger (30 to 40 knots) over northeast NM where there is a better chance for more organized severe storms. Given that sfc heating will be driving most of the convection, storms will rapidly decrease in coverage after sunset. Thursday will be an even more active day with scattered to widespread coverage of showers and storms. The continued advection of moisture and lower 500 mb heights will support higher instability and therefore higher chances of wetting rainfall for portions of western and central NM that desperately need it.

The trough developing over The Great Basin late week into the weekend has trended slower and deeper. This will keep a bit of lingering moisture around into Friday for isolated showers and storms, but it also means that winds have trended stronger on Saturday and Sunday afternoons as the state comes under the influence of dry southwest flow. Fire weather concerns take center stage once again this weekend, with little relief early next week as the trough begins to lift into The Great Plains.

Looking ahead to the middle portion of next week, GEFS ensemble guidance suggests that moisture will begin to return from the south as a very amplified ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS. The depth of this sub-tropical moisture plume remains a question mark given its sub-optimal trajectory, but nonetheless will be a welcomed sign after the fire weather pattern earlier in the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Patchy MVFR cigs in the eastern plains will end shortly after 18Z as clouds dissipate. Gusty north winds in eastern NM will trend lighter early this afternoon. After these winds taper off, winds will generally be light (<15 kts) around the region this afternoon and overnight.

While an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out in the far northeast corner of the state this afternoon, dry conditions will continue to prevail.

There is a low chance (10-30%) that MVFR cigs develop again tonight in the east central plains, with a moderate chance (30-50%) across the northeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Very dry and hot weather will continue to prevail through Tuesday, with only a slight chance of rain across the far northeastern corner of the state this afternoon and again Tuesday evening. The monsoon ridge will build northward and strengthen early this week, reaching its peak intensity Tuesday afternoon over south-central NM. Moisture will be advected around the monsoon high, reaching far western NM Tuesday afternoon and potentially generating a few high based gusty showers and an isolated dry storm or two. The moisture advection continues into Wednesday, creating an increase in the coverage of showers and storms. Dry storms will be of particular concern in western NM Wednesday afternoon where Lifted indices (LIs) of -1 to -3C will overlap with sfc dewpoint depressions of 45 to 55F. Gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts from even passing virga showers could create strong outflow wind gusts that create briefly dangerous fire behavior from both new and existing fires. Storm coverage peaks on Thursday, which will be the best shot at wetting rainfall for most locales since PWATs will rise above seasonal normals.

Moisture will be scoured out of the region from west to east Friday as dry southwest flow develops out ahead of a Great Basin trough. A fire growing pattern returns this weekend as this southwest flow drapes across New Mexico. The northwest half of New Mexico will be of particular concern given the stronger wind speeds and very dry fuels (ERCs > 97th percentile). Any meager rainfall mid-week will not have a significant impact on fuel status. Furthermore, any new fire starts from dry lightning could spread during this time period. The dry and breezy weather will continue into early next week, then moisture will may begin to return from the south around the middle of next week (moderate confidence).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 54 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 44 93 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 92 57 91 / 0 5 5 0 Gallup.......................... 48 94 55 93 / 0 10 10 20 El Morro........................ 52 91 56 90 / 0 20 10 10 Grants.......................... 51 96 56 93 / 0 10 10 30 Quemado......................... 54 92 58 91 / 0 20 10 10 Magdalena....................... 63 94 65 93 / 0 10 0 20 Datil........................... 58 91 61 90 / 0 20 10 30 Reserve......................... 51 99 54 97 / 0 20 5 20 Glenwood........................ 57 104 61 103 / 0 10 0 10 Chama........................... 45 87 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 93 64 89 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 53 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 90 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 45 82 47 77 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 40 85 43 82 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 50 93 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 91 54 86 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 56 99 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 94 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 96 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 99 70 99 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 100 66 99 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 102 65 101 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 101 66 99 / 0 5 5 0 Belen........................... 59 102 64 101 / 0 10 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 61 101 65 100 / 0 5 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 101 63 100 / 0 5 5 0 Corrales........................ 61 102 65 101 / 0 5 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 59 102 63 100 / 0 5 5 0 Placitas........................ 63 97 67 96 / 0 5 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 101 66 99 / 0 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 69 105 72 104 / 0 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 94 64 93 / 0 5 5 0 Tijeras......................... 60 95 64 94 / 0 5 5 0 Edgewood........................ 55 97 61 94 / 0 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 98 57 96 / 0 0 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 56 97 61 96 / 0 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 93 63 91 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 53 92 53 82 / 10 5 10 60 Raton........................... 53 97 54 88 / 5 0 5 30 Springer........................ 54 98 56 88 / 5 0 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 54 95 57 88 / 0 0 0 20 Clayton......................... 60 97 60 85 / 10 20 20 20 Roy............................. 58 95 58 86 / 0 0 5 30 Conchas......................... 63 104 64 94 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 62 100 63 93 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 64 103 67 93 / 0 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 65 102 67 96 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 65 104 68 98 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 65 102 67 97 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 68 106 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 100 66 97 / 0 10 0 10 Elk............................. 60 99 63 95 / 0 10 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ207-219>221- 225-226-238>240.