textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms across western and central NM Monday and potentially the central high terrain Tuesday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph and patchy blowing dust. Low chance of new fire starts from dry lightning.

- There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and for western and central New Mexico on Friday. This will increase the threat of rapid fire spread with any fire starts.

- Strong southwest and west winds will result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles on north-south highways Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Cloud bases are gradually lowering this morning as relatively higher mid level and low level moisture pushes northward ahead of a weak disturbance over southern AZ and northwest Mexico. Moisture content is highest across southeast NM resulting in some low clouds and isolated sprinkles. Come late this morning PWATs will range from around 0.4 to 0.5 inches across western and central NM and around 0.5 to 0.8 inches across the east central and southeast plains. Drier PWATs of 0.2 to 0.4 inches will linger across north central and northeast NM. This aforementioned higher moisture combined with daytime heating and the weak disturbance moving overhead will set the stage for a mostly dry showers and thunderstorms for western and central NM. Wetter activity will favor the peaks of the southwest and south central higher terrain with rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.3 inches in the cores of showers and storms as they slowly drift east. Drier shower and thunderstorm activity will come with the associated hazards of erratic wind gusts of up to 50 mph, patchy blowing dust and dry lightning strikes, which could lead to future fire starts later in the week.

Wet/dry shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern NM Monday evening will taper off around to just after sunset. Clouds will clear out for most by midnight, except for low cloud development across southeast NM due to low surface dewpoint depressions from moist southerly flow. Drier westerly flow moves into the state Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance and ahead of an unseasonably strong upper low spinning off southern OR and northern CA. Isolated gusty virga showers to very light rain showers can't be ruled out across the central high terrain and nearby lower elevations due to some lingering mid level moisture and PWATs around 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Any shower activity tapers off around sunset with clear skies and cool to mild temperatures overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The upper low mentioned in the short term is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. 500 to 700 mb winds will increase during day to 35 to 50 kts by the late afternoon as the base of the upper low moves east towards the state. This will result in much drier and gusty southwest winds for most areas. MOS guidance shows potential for the strongest wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph across northeast NM, the upper RGV near the CO border, and northwest NM around Gallup Wednesday afternoon and early evening. As a result, moderate to high confidence exists for a high risk for rapid fire spread across much of northern and central NM outside of the higher elevations. As mentioned in the short term, locations that experienced dry lightning strikes on Monday will be potential breeding grounds for fire starts. West winds remain gusty across the highlands and higher terrain Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the base of the trough passes overhead. 700 mb winds of 40 to 50 kts across the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands will result in mountain wave activity. Gusty west winds expected across the area along and behind the Pacific front Thursday. Winds across western NM will not be as strong as Wednesday but will be as strong if not a touch stronger across central and eastern NM. MOS guidance shows potential for 50 mph wind gusts across northeast and east central NM Thursday afternoon and early evening. As a result, another day of a higher risk for rapid fire spread is expected for most areas with the focus across central and eastern NM. Despite slightly cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity values will be a touch lower along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday due to downsloping effects

As the upper low moves northeast over the northern Great Plains Thursday night into Friday morning, it will send a backdoor front with some gusty north winds through eastern NM. Longwave troughing remains north and west of New Mexico Friday into next weekend. Upper and mid level westerly flow will help to quickly mix out the backdoor front Friday with breezy southwest and west winds each afternoon Friday-Sunday. Winds look to be strong enough for rapid fire spread across the highlands of northeast NM at the minimum Friday. Precip chances could return to northern areas early next week as upper level flow tries to back in response to an potential approaching new upper shortwave over southern CA and AZ among the overall longwave troughing. Temperatures will be above average by 5 to 15 degrees Wednesday before gradually cooling down to near average late this week into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Increasing mid level clouds with some low clouds and sprinkles across far southeast NM, including KROW, this morning. MVFR ceilings this morning should remain on the caprock south and east of KROW. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain of western and central NM midday moving into the nearby lower elevations during the afternoon hours. Showers and storms will produce little rainfall (outside of small wetting footprints across the peaks of the southwest and south central mountains), erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, and patchy areas of blowing dust. PROB30 at KGUP since confidence in gusty and erratic winds from nearby showers and storms is higher. KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF could see gusty outflow winds from this activity during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any shower and thunderstorm activity across the area tapers off around to just after sunset with gradually clearing skies for most. MVFR ceilings developing across southeast late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Ceilings across the lower Pecos River Valley, including KROW, could briefly drop to IFR category.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

Slightly higher mid level and low level moisture across the state Monday will result in mostly dry gusty showers and thunderstorms across western and central NM. Some wetter showers and thunderstorms across the peaks of the southwest and south central high terrain with rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.3 in the heaviest cores. Dry lightning across central areas could result in future fire starts. Warmer with light south and southwest winds areawide and some isolated dry and gusty showers across the central high terrain Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds Wednesday as an system moves into the western U.S. These stronger winds combined with minimum relative humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens will result in the high potential for critical fire weather conditions across much of northern and central New Mexico outside of the mountain peaks. Poor humidity recoveries, especially along and east of the central mountain chain, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The system moves across the intermountain West Thursday resulting in gusty west winds, continued very low relative humidity values, and another day of critical fire weather conditions, with central and eastern New Mexico being favored. Southwest and west winds remain elevated Friday through next weekend among slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher relative humidity values in the low to mid teens. Winds look to be strong enough across at least the Northeast and Central Highlands, and West Central Basin and Range for another day of critical fire weather conditions Friday. Low precipitation chances look to arrive across far northern areas early next week as a new storm digs south over southern California and Arizona.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 77 44 79 46 / 5 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 73 31 76 38 / 5 5 10 5 Cuba............................ 70 39 74 43 / 10 10 20 10 Gallup.......................... 72 35 75 36 / 30 10 10 0 El Morro........................ 67 39 72 40 / 40 20 10 5 Grants.......................... 72 36 76 37 / 40 20 20 5 Quemado......................... 68 40 73 39 / 60 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 68 45 74 46 / 50 30 10 5 Datil........................... 65 41 71 41 / 60 30 10 5 Reserve......................... 74 37 78 36 / 50 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 41 83 41 / 40 10 0 0 Chama........................... 67 34 70 37 / 10 5 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 69 45 73 49 / 20 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 70 39 75 43 / 40 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 39 72 43 / 10 10 20 10 Red River....................... 60 34 63 38 / 20 10 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 65 26 69 30 / 20 10 20 20 Taos............................ 72 33 76 37 / 20 10 20 10 Mora............................ 70 37 74 41 / 30 20 20 20 Espanola........................ 76 40 81 44 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 70 45 75 47 / 30 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 41 77 45 / 30 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 51 80 54 / 20 20 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 47 82 51 / 20 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 78 45 84 49 / 20 20 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 48 81 51 / 20 20 10 5 Belen........................... 78 42 83 46 / 30 20 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 78 47 83 51 / 20 20 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 78 41 83 45 / 30 20 10 5 Corrales........................ 78 47 83 51 / 20 20 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 78 43 83 46 / 30 20 10 5 Placitas........................ 73 48 78 52 / 20 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 77 48 82 51 / 20 10 10 5 Socorro......................... 78 47 84 49 / 40 20 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 45 74 49 / 30 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 70 45 76 49 / 30 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 72 40 77 46 / 30 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 73 34 78 41 / 30 20 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 68 41 74 44 / 40 30 20 5 Mountainair..................... 72 42 76 45 / 40 30 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 70 42 75 46 / 50 30 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 73 47 77 51 / 40 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 67 44 71 48 / 50 20 20 5 Capulin......................... 70 37 75 42 / 0 5 10 5 Raton........................... 74 35 79 40 / 5 5 20 5 Springer........................ 75 35 81 40 / 10 10 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 70 39 76 43 / 30 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 75 44 81 49 / 0 5 5 0 Roy............................. 72 39 79 46 / 10 20 10 10 Conchas......................... 78 45 87 49 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 73 43 82 49 / 30 20 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 77 47 87 52 / 20 20 5 5 Clovis.......................... 71 48 84 52 / 20 20 10 10 Portales........................ 71 48 85 51 / 20 20 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 74 47 85 48 / 20 20 10 5 Roswell......................... 74 50 85 52 / 20 10 20 5 Picacho......................... 72 44 81 49 / 40 20 20 5 Elk............................. 72 41 79 46 / 40 20 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.