textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 439 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

- A widespread high wind event is expected today, and will continue from the central mountain chain eastward tonight, with blowing dust, dangerous crosswinds, and some damaging wind gusts around 60 mph expected.

- Snow squalls and a flash freeze could make driving hazardous from the continental divide westward across northwest and west central New Mexico this afternoon and evening, then there will be a greater risk of snow squalls in the same area Friday morning. - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas today, then again across the east central plains on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 149 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Strong winds ongoing across New Mexico late this morning and should continue through the early evening. So far, the strongest observed gust was 60 mph over Gallup, where a High Wind Warning is in effect until 9 PM. Wind will be the main concern for most locations going into the evening tonight as an upper level trough crosses the southern Rockies and steers a 150 kt upper level jet right over the Desert Southwest. Widespread 700 mb winds in the 55 to 65 kt range will make for some damaging winds across the high terrain, with some strong gusts mixing down to the lower elevations. The only location in the state that is currently not under some sort of wind highlight is the Chaves county plains and Roosevelt County. Despite being spared from the strongest winds this afternoon, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will still be able to stir up some dust in southeast New Mexico, with blowing dust lowering visibility and creating hazardous driving conditions.

These strong winds will also contribute to an increased threat of rapid fire spread. Most of eastern New Mexico is currently under a Red Flag Warning due to strong 50 to 60 mph winds and critically low humidities of 10 to 15%. Despite, conditions not being as dry in the Rio Grande Valley, have opted to add the middle Rio Grande Valley to the Red Flag Warning due to strong persistent winds across the region leading to a high risk of rapid fire spread. A fire detection was already observed in northern Socorro county, further increasing confidence that fuels may be a little more primed than previously surmised.

Winds will begin to taper off for the western half of the state early tonight after a cold front finishes swinging through northwestern New Mexico. However, strong wind gusts will be accompanied with a band of snow showers along this front, creating blowing snow conditions and low visibility from the Four Corners southward to the I-40 corridor near Gallup. HREF ensemble probabilities currently shows about a 30 to 40% chance of strong winds and snow creating visibility lower that half a mile for parts of McKinley and Cibola counties, including Gallup. Higher probabilities of 50 to 60% exist over localized areas in the high terrain, including mountain passes in the Chuska Mountains, Zuni Mountains, Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and especially the Tusas Mountains. The Chuskas, Tusas, and Sangre de Cristo mountains are currently under Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM, where 1 to 4 inches of snow may fall, with locally higher amounts of 8 to 9 inches over the peaks.

Strong winds look to continue over the central mountain chain and parts of the eastern plains into the overnight hours, particularly along the south central mountains. Guidance has been trending at keeping stronger winds later on into the night even as far west as the Rio Grande Valley and the Jemez Mountains, so Wind Advisories may need to be extended a few more hours for those zones. Winds lighten up throughout the region by Thursday morning once the shortwave disturbance has passed. Mid level 700 mb winds diminish into the 40 to 50 kt range across the central mountains and central highlands. Winds will be near or at advisory criteria for those zones where gusts may be as strong as 45 mph, while the rest of the state will be breezy at most. The fire weather threat will be borderline as well for eastern New Mexico, but given the continued dry and breezy conditions, have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the northeast plains where there are already are a couple of ongoing vegetation fires.

Things ramp up once again going into Friday as another Pacific front pushes through northwest New Mexico during the mid to late morning hours. As a shortwave trough digs south into the southern rockies, another round of strong west winds will overtake the state, with higher chances of damaging wind gusts along the central mountain chain. Another Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the east central plains on Friday, where dry and windy conditions will once again increase the threat of rapid fire spread. Lastly, as the Pacific front pushes through western New Mexico on Friday morning, another bout of snow showers are expected to bring blowing snow conditions to northwest parts of the state. Current model show a little bit more instability with these showers, indicating greater confidence of snow squalls and maybe even a lightning strike or two. Overall, minor to locally moderate winter impacts are expected, with heavier snowfall amounts for the high terrain in north-central and northwestern New Mexico.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

An upper level ridge further entrenches itself into western CONUS, giving way to rising temperatures and mostly calm conditions across New Mexico Sunday into the new week. Near to slightly below average temperatures appear likely Sunday, gradually rising above average statewide going into the new week. This equates to high temperatures in the mid to high 60s across much of the state by Monday. Dry northwest flow shifts into the region by the middle of next week, bringing back breezy westerly winds, though likely nowhere near the strength of the winds being observed currently. These westerly downsloping winds will likely skyrocket temperatures across eastern NM and the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley into the mid to high 70s, which is roughly 15F above average for mid/late February. Models are latching onto the development of a backdoor cold front sometime later next week as westerly winds contribute to lee cyclogenesis, though the timing and strength of this front remain in question this far out. The next chances for precipitation are favored for this late week period as well with Pacific moisture being funneled into western CONUS, though the orientation of the jet streak/moisture advection will dictate where the precipitation eventually generates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 439 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty southwest to west winds and patchy blowing dust are occurring across much of the region, with the strongest wind gusts of 40 to 60 kts focusing across western and central areas. A potent Pacific front has moved through KFMN and KGUP and will quickly trek eastward and southward through the evening, reaching the RGV around 04Z. A brief period of strong northwest winds and blowing snow is likely with the frontal passage, although it will weaken significantly as it moves east of the Cont. Divide. Gusty winds will continue through the night along and east of the central mountain chain, where widespread LLWS is likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions for the rest of this afternoon, mostly over eastern New Mexico. Sub-15% humidities are forecast today across the eastern plains and as far west as the lower Rio Grande Valley. ERCs are also forecast to vary from the 50th to 95th percentile across eastern areas, where a Red Flag Warning is again in effect. Despite ERCs below the 50th percentile for parts of the Middle Rio Grande Valley, have opted to issue a Rad Flag Warning for the zone, given that low humidities of about 15% and strong winds of 40 to 50 mph will promote rapid fire spread. Locally critical fire weather conditions are again forecast Thursday on the eastern plains with marginally critical wind speeds in most places. Went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for the northeast plains for Thursday given the continued dry and breezy conditions for an area that has already seen a couple of new fires over the last couple of days. Wind speeds are forecast to become strong again on Friday, so a Fire Weather Watch will has been issued for the east-central plains. Given stronger winds across the state, this watch may need to be expanded to other plains zones or even parts of the Rio Grande Valley in subsequent forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 17 38 27 37 / 50 10 80 60 Dulce........................... 5 35 14 34 / 80 20 90 100 Cuba............................ 14 36 20 37 / 90 20 60 80 Gallup.......................... 8 38 19 36 / 70 20 60 60 El Morro........................ 17 38 20 36 / 70 30 30 50 Grants.......................... 10 42 18 40 / 60 10 30 40 Quemado......................... 21 43 23 42 / 40 20 10 30 Magdalena....................... 29 49 29 48 / 10 10 0 20 Datil........................... 25 43 25 42 / 30 5 0 20 Reserve......................... 22 48 23 46 / 50 20 10 30 Glenwood........................ 26 51 23 50 / 60 30 20 30 Chama........................... 4 27 11 28 / 90 20 80 90 Los Alamos...................... 21 36 23 36 / 80 20 40 70 Pecos........................... 18 38 19 38 / 60 10 20 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 13 32 18 32 / 80 10 30 80 Red River....................... 8 23 12 24 / 80 10 40 80 Angel Fire...................... -3 30 7 29 / 80 10 30 80 Taos............................ 8 36 17 34 / 80 10 30 70 Mora............................ 14 38 16 36 / 60 10 20 40 Espanola........................ 17 43 20 44 / 80 10 40 70 Santa Fe........................ 22 38 24 40 / 70 20 30 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 21 41 23 42 / 70 10 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 30 47 31 48 / 30 20 20 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 28 50 29 49 / 30 10 10 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 26 53 27 52 / 20 10 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 28 50 28 49 / 30 10 10 30 Belen........................... 25 54 25 53 / 20 10 0 20 Bernalillo...................... 27 50 28 50 / 40 10 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 24 53 25 52 / 20 10 5 20 Corrales........................ 27 50 28 51 / 30 10 10 40 Los Lunas....................... 25 53 26 52 / 20 10 5 20 Placitas........................ 28 44 29 46 / 50 20 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 27 50 28 49 / 40 10 10 40 Socorro......................... 29 58 28 58 / 10 5 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 24 41 26 42 / 50 20 20 50 Tijeras......................... 27 43 28 44 / 50 20 20 50 Edgewood........................ 24 44 23 45 / 40 10 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 45 18 46 / 30 5 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 21 40 23 41 / 20 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 25 47 24 47 / 10 10 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 26 49 25 49 / 10 10 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 32 53 33 54 / 10 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 32 47 31 48 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 18 43 15 43 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 18 44 13 42 / 5 0 5 20 Springer........................ 20 47 14 45 / 20 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 20 43 20 41 / 20 0 5 20 Clayton......................... 28 53 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 24 50 20 48 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 30 56 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 29 51 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 32 58 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 34 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 58 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 35 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 33 59 32 58 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ201-203-204-206- 207-209-211-216>222-224-225-241.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-106-123- 125-126.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ230>232-234-235-237.

Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for NMZ104.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ205-208.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ202- 210-213-214.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ212>215-223- 226>229-233-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for NMZ126.