textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - There will be a moderate risk of heat induced illness across lower elevation areas each of the next seven days, except for localized major heat risk in some southern and eastern locations Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today and Thursday, when there will be a risk of severe storms on the eastern plains, and a mix of wet and dry storms west of the central mountain chain. Storms with lighter rain, lightning, and gusty downburst winds will linger into Friday. - Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A busy day is ahead for the Land of Enchantment with varying hazards across the state. The upper level high is expected to weaken slightly to 595-596dam and sag just a bit southward today. This will allow mid level Pacific moisture to round the high into NM. As convective temperature is reached, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area. Unfortunately, low levels will remain very dry and large inverted-V forecast soundings suggest between 1000-2000 J/kg of DCAPE. Thus, gusty and erratic winds in excess of 40-50 mph will be possible with any virga shower or dry thunderstorm this afternoon. Reduced visibility in blowing dust is possible. PWATs will continue to increase through the evening to between 0.8 and 1.0 inches as moisture continues to stream in and top-down moistening occurs. Therefore, any rainfall persisting from shower and thunderstorm activity this evening will have an increasingly better chance at reaching the ground. Even so, amounts will be minimal. Given the continued dry vegetation across much of central and western NM and lack of precipitation expected today, the concern is that several new fires may start due to lightning.

Meanwhile across eastern NM, severe weather will be the concern. Early this morning, several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast CO and will just skirt northeast NM. As those storms continue to trek east-southeastward and grow upscale, an associated outflow boundary will slide into NE NM and press southward through the morning hours, eventually backing up to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Additionally, an earlier outflow boundary surged westward and brought increased low level moisture into eastern NM, and the aforementioned boundary will only reinforce the low level moisture across the area. With moist upslope flow, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around 2pm along or just east of the Central Mountain Chain. Storms will then shift east or southeast across the plains through the afternoon and evening where 40-50kt of 0-6km bulk shear and 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists. Severe storms are expected with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Its unclear how far south the outflow boundary from tonights storms will push, but the favored severe storm area will likely be along the boundary. Some CAMs currently paint that area from between LVS and CQC southeastward across Guadalupe, De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Most storms are expected to weaken or move into west Texas by the midnight hour.

The upper high will continue to weaken and flatten on Thursday allowing a direct path for moisture into NM. PWATs across the area on Thursday will be between 0.85 to over an inch, which is above normal for late June. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to erupt across much of the area with daytime heating and weak upper level disturbances passing overhead. Storms will have a better chance at producing wetting precipitation (>0.10) but quick storm motions (toward the east at 20-30 mph) will limit the rainfall at any one location. Another outflow boundary will nose into northeast NM Thursday evening. This boundary will be a focus for additional strong to severe thunderstorms.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Drier air will begin to push into NM on Friday, but plenty of moisture will remain for another round of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will remain above normal, so there will be a chance for some to produce wetting rainfall, but storms will likely produce gusty and erratic winds as well.

Much drier air will shift over NM Friday night into Saturday and daytime mixing Saturday will scour out any remaining moisture. Strong southwest winds will return Saturday afternoon with gusts between 35 and 50 mph common. More of the same is expected for Sunday afternoon.. Temperatures will be hot, with triple digit readings across eastern NM.

Return flow looks to return Sunday night into Monday across eastern NM, which will increase low level moisture across the area. At least isolated storms should develop Monday afternoon, despite much of the moisture mixing out. Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions will prevail. Moisture should make a bigger return Monday night, setting the stage for more storms on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Thunderstorms that originated in southeast CO and shifted eastward have produced an outflow boundary that is pressing southwestward across northeast NM early this morning. IFR cigs have developed behind the boundary and these low cigs will persist through late morning before eroding. Meanwhile, the boundary will continue to press southwestward and nudge up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountain Chain and stall near or just south of I-40 later this morning. Thunderstorms will develop along the boundary this afternoon and will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 50kt as storms shift east or southeast through the plains through the evening hours. Additionally, an increase in mid-level moisture will allow for virga and dry thunderstorms to develop across central and western NM this aftn. These showers and thunderstorms will also be capable of gusty winds in excess of 35kt. Showers and thunderstorms should decrease in coverage and intensity by 06Z Thu.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A fire growing pattern is expected over the next several days. Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms are expected across central and western NM today, with gusty and erratic winds with any shower or storm. PWATs increase tonight into Thursday as Pacific moisture continues to advect into NM, and additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday. Though chances for wetting rain will increase, small footprints of wetting rain are expected due to fast storm motions Thursday and Friday. Severe thunderstorms with abundant lightning are expected across eastern NM today, with more storms Thursday and Friday as well. Following this period of thunderstorm activity, critical fire weather conditions will return Saturday and Sunday. Its likely that any lightning-started fires will grow under the windy and dry conditions over the weekend. Dry and breezy conditions will continue into Monday across western and central NM, but modest return flow will increase moisture across the southeast. Better return flow will occur Monday night, increasing storm chances for Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 59 90 60 / 20 50 20 40 Dulce........................... 92 47 86 46 / 20 40 10 40 Cuba............................ 91 55 85 54 / 20 40 40 40 Gallup.......................... 91 51 87 51 / 30 30 40 40 El Morro........................ 90 53 84 53 / 20 20 30 30 Grants.......................... 93 53 88 53 / 40 30 40 30 Quemado......................... 90 56 85 55 / 20 20 60 20 Magdalena....................... 91 62 88 61 / 30 10 60 20 Datil........................... 88 58 85 57 / 30 10 60 10 Reserve......................... 97 53 93 52 / 30 30 30 5 Glenwood........................ 102 60 98 58 / 10 20 30 0 Chama........................... 85 46 79 45 / 10 50 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 90 61 84 60 / 20 30 40 20 Pecos........................... 92 56 87 55 / 10 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 55 81 53 / 10 40 30 20 Red River....................... 79 47 73 46 / 10 50 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 84 43 78 43 / 10 50 20 10 Taos............................ 91 53 85 51 / 10 40 20 20 Mora............................ 88 53 84 53 / 20 30 20 5 Espanola........................ 97 59 91 57 / 10 30 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 92 61 86 60 / 10 30 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 59 90 57 / 10 20 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 68 93 65 / 5 20 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 64 94 62 / 5 20 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 63 96 61 / 10 20 60 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 65 94 63 / 10 20 60 30 Belen........................... 100 62 96 59 / 5 20 60 30 Bernalillo...................... 99 65 94 63 / 10 20 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 97 61 95 58 / 5 20 60 30 Corrales........................ 99 64 95 63 / 10 20 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 98 62 95 59 / 5 20 60 30 Placitas........................ 96 66 91 64 / 10 20 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 98 64 94 62 / 10 20 50 30 Socorro......................... 103 68 99 66 / 10 10 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 61 88 59 / 5 20 50 20 Tijeras......................... 94 61 89 59 / 10 20 50 20 Edgewood........................ 96 57 91 56 / 5 20 40 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 55 93 54 / 5 20 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 92 56 88 56 / 10 20 20 5 Mountainair..................... 97 57 92 56 / 0 20 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 95 59 91 58 / 5 20 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 99 66 96 65 / 10 10 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 92 61 90 61 / 20 10 20 20 Capulin......................... 84 52 86 51 / 50 40 20 20 Raton........................... 90 52 90 52 / 40 30 20 5 Springer........................ 90 54 91 55 / 40 40 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 88 56 / 30 30 10 0 Clayton......................... 86 60 94 59 / 20 20 20 30 Roy............................. 88 57 91 57 / 40 40 10 5 Conchas......................... 96 61 100 63 / 30 30 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 94 60 95 62 / 30 30 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 96 64 100 66 / 20 30 20 10 Clovis.......................... 99 65 100 66 / 10 40 20 20 Portales........................ 100 66 101 66 / 5 40 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 98 64 99 64 / 20 40 20 20 Roswell......................... 104 69 103 68 / 0 20 20 30 Picacho......................... 99 64 98 64 / 20 10 30 20 Elk............................. 98 62 97 62 / 20 10 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.