textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Isolated showers and storms across high terrain each afternoon through Thursday may produce erratic wind gusts with little to no precipitation.

- Pleasant Fall weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail around the region through the end of the week.

- Light precipitation will expand from western New Mexico to the central NM over the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Quiet conditions are expected the rest of the day with upper level ridging over the area. Similarly to yesterday, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop over the northern mountains. These storms would have little rainfall, but could produce brief wind gusts. Otherwise, light winds and near to above normal temperatures will be the rule.

An upper low over NV will slowly slide southeastward tonight and Wednesday, which will effectively undercut the northern extent of the ridge. Thus, by late Wednesday, a weak high will be located across southeast CO while the low, and by that time, a weak trough, extends from northwest to southeast across NM. Forcing with this system is very weak, but it may enhance moisture and lift just enough for a few more showers or storms to develop across the western 2/3rds of the CWA. Most of this will probably amount to sprinkles with occasional gusty winds at best, though. Best chances for measurable precipitation will be across the northern mountains and far western NM. More cloud cover should keep temps 1-3 degrees cooler for many areas as compared with today.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

By Wednesday night into Thursday, the trough will be oriented east to west across southern NM. There could still be isolated showers and storms over the high terrain, but significant impacts are not expected. The NAM has been showing significantly higher coverage and amounts of QPF for both Wed and Thu, but it is the outlier with both precipitation as well as the upper air pattern, so it has been largely ignored for this package. The trough may re-organize into a weak closed low as it continues to slide southeastward away from NM Friday into the weekend. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow will gradually increase, especially across the northwest half of the state through this time period and a lee side surface trough will develop across CO and NE NM. Thus, expect some breezy conditions across northern NM (especially NE NM) Fri and Sat.

All eyes then turn to the potential for tropical moisture to return. Hurricane Rachel will get pushed northeastward Friday while it's still over the Pacific in response to a rather weak Pacific low shifting southward. However, the Pacific low will eventually absorb the remnants of Rachel on Saturday as Rachel is sheared apart. As another more potent closed low digs southward over Northern CA on Sunday, southwest flow ahead of this system will bring the moisture remnants of Hurricane Rachel and the original low into SoCal and AZ Sunday and Sunday night. Some light precipitation may reach as far east as the Rio Grande Valley Sunday and Monday, but amounts look to be relatively light overall. However, that may change starting late Monday into Tuesday. Though the remnants of Rachel will have shifted well to the north of NM, another tropical system will have developed south of the Baja Peninsula. With the potent upper low still digging over the west coast Monday, the new tropical system should get drawn northward. This system would also shear apart before reaching NM, but the moisture currently looks to take aim on the state late Monday through Tuesday night. If this occurs, rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms would be on tap. It should be noted that this is still one week out, and the specifics will change. If flow aloft is more southwesterly vs. southerly, which both the AI-GFS and AI-GEFS show, NM may not see as much precipitation Monday night through Tuesday night. It's also curious that ensembles keep the PWATs below 0.75" through the period, which would suggest the moisture will be diverted. All this to say that there is a lot of uncertainty early next week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across the north central mountains this afternoon. Brief wind gusts to 35kt will be possible with these storms. Otherwise, light winds will prevail today and tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next week. A few showers or storms will develop today through Thursday, favoring the high terrain, but wetting precipitation will hard to come by. These storms may result in brief gusty winds instead. Breezy conditions return to northern and especially northeast NM Friday and Saturday. Gusts between 30 and 35 mph are expected across NE NM. Light precipitation will return to western NM late Saturday expanding to central NM Sun/Mon. Considerable uncertainty in the forecast exists starting late Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 51 79 50 79 / 0 10 10 0 Dulce........................... 43 77 40 76 / 5 20 30 10 Cuba............................ 47 75 46 72 / 5 20 10 10 Gallup.......................... 45 75 44 77 / 5 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 44 72 43 72 / 5 20 10 10 Grants.......................... 45 73 44 74 / 5 10 10 5 Quemado......................... 45 74 44 74 / 0 10 10 10 Magdalena....................... 50 74 49 71 / 0 10 10 10 Datil........................... 45 72 44 70 / 0 10 10 10 Reserve......................... 46 78 46 78 / 0 10 10 20 Glenwood........................ 51 83 52 82 / 0 10 10 20 Chama........................... 43 71 41 71 / 10 30 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 52 72 49 71 / 5 10 10 10 Pecos........................... 46 76 45 73 / 5 20 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 72 42 71 / 5 20 20 10 Red River....................... 37 63 36 63 / 5 20 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 30 69 30 68 / 5 20 20 20 Taos............................ 41 75 41 73 / 5 10 10 10 Mora............................ 45 72 42 70 / 0 10 10 10 Espanola........................ 49 79 47 77 / 0 10 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 50 75 48 73 / 5 20 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 77 48 75 / 5 10 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 79 53 77 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 80 55 78 / 0 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 82 53 80 / 0 20 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 81 53 79 / 0 10 10 5 Belen........................... 52 81 53 79 / 0 10 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 53 81 52 80 / 0 10 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 51 82 51 80 / 0 10 10 5 Corrales........................ 53 81 53 80 / 0 10 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 52 82 51 80 / 0 10 10 5 Placitas........................ 53 78 52 76 / 0 20 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 55 80 53 79 / 0 10 10 5 Socorro......................... 55 82 56 79 / 0 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 75 49 73 / 0 20 20 10 Tijeras......................... 52 76 50 74 / 0 20 20 10 Edgewood........................ 50 75 48 73 / 0 10 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 78 43 75 / 0 5 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 49 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 48 75 47 72 / 0 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 48 75 48 72 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 79 55 76 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 48 72 49 68 / 0 5 5 20 Capulin......................... 48 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 46 80 44 77 / 0 5 5 5 Springer........................ 45 81 44 77 / 0 0 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 47 75 45 72 / 0 5 5 5 Clayton......................... 54 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 54 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 52 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 54 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 53 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 50 76 52 74 / 0 0 5 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.