textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists Friday and Saturday across far east central and northeast NM.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms can not be ruled out, especially on Tuesday across eastern NM.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Low level moisture will not slosh westward as far as last night, and thus, widespread low clouds are not anticipated overnight. However, patchy low clouds have already developed across portions of northeast and southeast NM, and this will persist through the overnight hours. Around sunrise, a backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM. The front will slide southward through the morning hours before stalling near a Santa Rosa to Portales line. Breezy north to northeast winds can be expected behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary between 2-4pm. Enough instability (800-1500J/kg MLCAPE) and shear (~30kt 0-6km) exists for a few strong to severe storms to develop. Storms will have the most potential to stay severe along the frontal boundary. Once storms move well behind the frontal boundary as they shift eastward, they should tend to become less organized.

The front will push farther south and west tonight, aided by any convective outflows. Wouldn't be surprised to see one or two showers or storms pop up along the front as it slides southward overnight, though most of the convection will be done by midnight across northeast and east central NM. The front should push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain between midnight and 3am Saturday. Expect at least breezy conditions below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley, but the strength of the east wind will likely depend on how much convection develops across the east today.

The low level moisture that squeaked westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain will quickly mix back out on Saturday afternoon, but low level moisture will remain across the east, especially northeast NM. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will begin to build over the Desert Southwest and a weak shortwave will be shifting over eastern CO. The resultant northwest flow over northeast NM will yield nearly 40kt of 0-6km shear. This combined with the persistent low level moisture will fuel another day of showers and thunderstorms in this area. Models are in good agreement that strong to severe thunderstorms will develop on or near the Raton Ridge and shift southeastward across eastern Colfax and Union counties. These storms may persist across Harding and Quay counties as well. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop east of the Central Mtn Chain and shift eastward, but the most organized storms will be found across the northeast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Low level moisture will slosh back westward Saturday night, potentially reaching the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain. But on Sunday, H5 heights will continue to rise as the ridge strengths over NM. Much of the low level moisture will mix out, even across eastern NM, but isolated storms remain possible. The risk for severe weather will be substantially lower, however. Temperatures will climb, and all areas will be near to above normal Sunday afternoon. More widespread showers and thunderstorms return on Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches and crosses NM. As moisture is drawn northward ahead of the trough axis, showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along and west of the Central Mountain Chain on Monday. On Monday night, the trough will continue to shift eastward and showers and thunderstorms should fill in across central NM, probably with the aid of outflow boundary collisions. Storms will likely persist through the overnight period, though there may be a brief break in the action Tuesday morning before another round of showers and thunderstorms develop near and east of the Central Mountain Chain in the afternoon. There may be an opportunity for additional severe weather Tuesday afternoon depending on how much instability can develop (ie. if there's a break in the precipitation/cloud cover from the overnight convection). At this point, it looks promising that most areas will get some rainfall, but amounts will be quite variable - as is the nature of thunderstorms.

A dry slot will push into western and central NM Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong mixing will allow dewpoints to drop back into the teens, but the moisture will not fully mix out across the eastern plains. Thus, a few showers and thunderstorms remain on tap Wednesday afternoon. Currently it looks like the moisture across eastern NM will mix out further on Thursday afternoon, but this will depend on the track of the next storm system.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

A mix of IFR and MVFR cigs have developed across portions of northeast NM and far east central NM early this morning. These low clouds will persist until approximately 15Z before eroding. A backdoor cold front has entered far northeast NM and it will continue to slide southward through the morning hours before stalling near a KSXU to KPRZ line. Breezy north to northeast winds will occur behind the front, with gusts up to 35kt around KCAO. This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop along this frontal boundary. Storms will be capable of hail and gusty winds as they shift eastward into west Texas. Outflow from these storms will push the frontal boundary further south and west tonight. Another east (southeast) canyon wind will develop at KABQ (KSAF) around 04Z, strengthen after midnight, then weaken around sunrise Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. However, very low humidity values will persist across central and western NM through Sunday. Lower elevation areas will see several hours of single digit RH each afternoon. Meanwhile, across the east, low level moisture will continue to diurnally slosh back and forth, with the aid of another backdoor cold front today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening across eastern NM. Main concern here will be any lightning started fires. On Monday and Tuesday, more widespread precipitation is anticipated as a storm system crosses the state. Several areas should see wetting rainfall, but footprints may be scattered due to the nature of thunderstorms. Drier air filters back into western and central NM on Wednesday with sub-15% RH returning. The drier air looks to push further into eastern NM on Thursday. Breezy south to southwest winds will also return Wed and Thurs across western NM. Otherwise, strongest winds will be focused around thunderstorm outflows over the next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 79 45 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 76 35 78 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 76 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 77 38 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 74 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 41 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 52 77 53 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 73 47 75 49 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 81 41 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 45 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 70 35 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 75 52 74 52 / 0 0 10 0 Pecos........................... 77 44 76 44 / 0 5 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 42 73 43 / 5 10 10 0 Red River....................... 63 35 63 36 / 5 10 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 69 31 69 31 / 10 20 20 0 Taos............................ 77 39 77 39 / 0 5 5 0 Mora............................ 73 42 72 42 / 10 20 50 0 Espanola........................ 83 48 82 46 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 77 50 77 50 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 48 80 48 / 0 5 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 55 81 56 / 0 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 50 78 52 / 0 5 10 0 Tijeras......................... 79 50 79 51 / 0 0 10 0 Edgewood........................ 80 47 80 48 / 0 5 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 43 81 43 / 0 5 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 45 75 46 / 10 5 20 0 Mountainair..................... 79 46 79 47 / 0 0 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 47 78 48 / 0 0 20 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 55 83 55 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 51 75 51 / 10 0 20 0 Capulin......................... 66 38 67 41 / 30 60 60 20 Raton........................... 73 40 72 41 / 40 60 60 10 Springer........................ 75 42 74 43 / 30 50 40 10 Las Vegas....................... 75 44 73 44 / 20 20 50 10 Clayton......................... 72 46 72 47 / 20 30 40 30 Roy............................. 74 45 73 46 / 30 40 30 20 Conchas......................... 83 50 81 50 / 30 30 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 81 48 80 48 / 30 10 30 10 Tucumcari....................... 84 50 82 52 / 20 40 20 20 Clovis.......................... 86 52 84 53 / 20 20 20 10 Portales........................ 88 51 85 53 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 86 50 85 52 / 20 10 20 10 Roswell......................... 90 55 89 57 / 10 0 20 0 Picacho......................... 84 52 82 51 / 10 0 20 0 Elk............................. 82 50 82 49 / 10 0 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.