textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk of lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and isolated flash flooding. - There will be a moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars today through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoon moisture with seasonably moist PWATs around 1-1.3" will remain in place over NM through the weekend as mid level high pressure centers persist over the CO/WY border and also on the TX/LA coast. In addition, a weak upper level low will remain stalled over southeast NM and west TX today and Saturday, then begin to migrate slowly westward over the Mexico and NM border on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will generally drift westward off the high terrain each afternoon and evening today through Sunday, although some storms will move more slowly and erratically. With the upper low in the area today and Saturday, much of the eastern plains can also expect scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday. Some cells today through Sunday will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1"/hr with a risk of isolated flash flooding. The main flash flood threat each day will be over southern and western parts of the forecast area; however, the NBM's 90th percentile QPF indicates today's flash flood threat will actually be a bit more widespread than that, extending over much of the area along and west of the central mountain chain, and especially along the AZ border. Considered issuing a Flash Flood Watch for this afternoon and evening for McKinley County, where flash flooding occurred in and south of Gallup on Thursday. The NBM indicates a 10 percent chance of 1-2" of rain in these locations again today, which would certainly result in additional flash flooding, but this probability is too low to justify a Flash Flood Watch. Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for the extremely vulnerable burn scars of the south central mountains this afternoon and evening, where the Rapid Ensemble Forecast System's (REFS) Localized Probability-Matched Mean (LPMM) continues to suggest of few of today's stronger storms will be capable of producing a quick 1.25" of rainfall. The LREF's LPMM indicates the south central mountains and western NM from the Chuska Mountains southward to Glenwood will continue to be favored locations for isolated 1-2" rain amounts capable of producing flash flooding on Saturday and Sunday.

With all of the moisture and convection, high temps will vary from near to around 9 degrees below 1991-2020 averages from day to day.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

During the first half of the coming work week, scattered to numerous storms with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will continue mainly along and west of the central mountain chain as the aforementioned upper highs consolidate into a stronger (595 dam) high pressure system, initially over CO on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the broad upper high is forecast to drift gradually southeastward recentering over the TX panhandle, where it should build to around 597 dam. Meanwhile, the weak upper low will gradually work its way around the southern and western periphery of the upper high, tracking over Mexico and the NM bootheel Tuesday, then northwestward over AZ on Wednesday. NM's storms will begin to stream toward the west at a faster pace (10-25 mph) on Monday, then more toward the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday while slowing down some. By Thursday, models depict a notable downtick in storm coverage as the upper high drifts westward over NM. Temperatures will generally trend warmer as the work week progresses with the strengthening upper high moving gradually more directly over NM. High temperatures should peak on Thursday from near 1991-2020 averages along NM's western border to as much as 7 degrees above the averages along NM's eastern border.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will develop by late morning in the mountains today, then scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast from the central mountain chain westward during the afternoon and evening. Scattered to isolated activity is forecast on the eastern plains with the least coverage around Clayton. Late tonight isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are forecast to linger over southern and western areas. Stronger storms will be capable of wet microbursts this afternoon and evening with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph in spots. Storm motion should generally be toward the southwest today and tonight, but some cells will move slowly and erratically.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

With seasonably rich monsoon moisture in place, the main fire weather concerns over the next seven days will be strong and erratic thunderstorm outflow, as well as lightning. Wetting rainfall will be most likely along and west of the central mountain chain each day, and much of the plains will also have a shot at some wetting precip today and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 89 61 89 62 / 30 50 20 20 Dulce........................... 85 48 87 49 / 70 40 60 20 Cuba............................ 82 54 82 55 / 50 60 70 40 Gallup.......................... 83 53 82 52 / 70 60 60 40 El Morro........................ 79 54 78 54 / 70 60 70 50 Grants.......................... 83 55 83 55 / 70 50 70 50 Quemado......................... 80 55 79 55 / 70 50 70 50 Magdalena....................... 82 61 82 61 / 60 40 80 50 Datil........................... 78 57 78 57 / 60 40 80 40 Reserve......................... 85 53 86 53 / 50 30 80 40 Glenwood........................ 89 55 89 55 / 40 20 70 50 Chama........................... 77 47 80 48 / 80 40 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 81 60 83 62 / 60 50 40 20 Pecos........................... 82 53 83 54 / 70 40 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 54 82 54 / 70 30 40 5 Red River....................... 71 46 73 47 / 80 30 40 0 Angel Fire...................... 75 40 77 41 / 70 30 30 5 Taos............................ 82 51 84 51 / 70 30 40 10 Mora............................ 78 51 81 52 / 70 40 40 30 Espanola........................ 89 59 90 60 / 50 40 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 82 59 83 60 / 50 50 70 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 57 86 58 / 50 50 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 65 89 66 / 40 50 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 63 90 63 / 40 40 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 62 92 63 / 30 40 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 65 91 66 / 30 40 30 40 Belen........................... 92 61 92 61 / 30 40 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 92 64 92 64 / 30 40 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 91 60 91 60 / 40 40 30 40 Corrales........................ 92 64 93 64 / 30 40 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 92 62 91 62 / 30 40 30 40 Placitas........................ 87 64 88 65 / 40 40 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 91 64 91 65 / 30 40 30 40 Socorro......................... 93 66 93 66 / 50 40 50 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 58 84 59 / 50 50 60 30 Tijeras......................... 84 59 84 59 / 50 50 60 40 Edgewood........................ 85 54 86 55 / 60 40 70 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 51 87 52 / 60 40 70 30 Clines Corners.................. 81 54 82 54 / 70 30 70 30 Mountainair..................... 84 55 85 55 / 60 40 70 40 Gran Quivira.................... 82 56 83 56 / 70 40 80 50 Carrizozo....................... 84 62 85 62 / 70 40 60 50 Ruidoso......................... 77 56 78 56 / 90 40 90 60 Capulin......................... 81 53 83 53 / 30 10 20 5 Raton........................... 85 53 87 54 / 30 20 10 5 Springer........................ 86 54 88 55 / 40 30 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 81 54 83 55 / 60 30 30 30 Clayton......................... 89 62 91 62 / 20 20 5 0 Roy............................. 84 58 86 59 / 20 30 20 10 Conchas......................... 91 63 93 63 / 20 40 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 86 61 88 61 / 30 30 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 91 64 93 64 / 10 30 0 10 Clovis.......................... 89 63 91 63 / 20 30 40 30 Portales........................ 90 63 91 63 / 20 40 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 90 63 91 63 / 20 30 10 30 Roswell......................... 91 66 92 66 / 30 40 30 40 Picacho......................... 85 61 87 61 / 60 40 70 50 Elk............................. 82 57 84 57 / 80 40 90 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ226.