textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread heavy rain today through Thursday with a good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances will increase again and bring more soaking rains early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a Monsoon moisture plume standing up over the region with a Pacific low on slow approach from the west and the upper high positioned along the TX coast. PWATs are ramping up rapidly, reaching 1.20" on the 18Z KEPZ upper air sounding and 0.97" on KABQ. These values are forecast to continue trending up to near calendar day record values this evening through Wednesday as moisture associated with major Hurricane Polo, currently offshore of southwest MX, gets pulled into this Monsoonal pattern. The overall very wet forecast through Wednesday night hasn't changed much, but the Flash Flood Watch has been extended through Wednesday night as a mid level disturbance is modeled to move northeast across NM through the period and provide adequate forcing for continued higher rainfall rates. The 12Z model suite has come into better agreement with the placement and progression of this feature, which is currently pivoting northeast over the southern Baja Peninsula per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Some of the western forecast zones will likely be dropped from the watch early Thursday evening given the forecast progression of the mid level disturbance. High temperatures on Wednesday are still forecast to be 10-15 degrees below average due to abundant cloud cover and a rain-cooled lower boundary layer. Flash flooding is the main weather threat through Wednesday night, especially on/near the Ruidoso burn scars. The threat for flash flooding in Ruidoso is high today as instability gets used up and storms produce higher rainfall rates. Once the lower boundary layer gets cooled overnight, rainfall rates will come down and the flash flood threat will transition to be more directly impacted by longer duration accumulation vs short duration rainfall intensity/rates. Expect a decrease in lightning activity areawide overnight through at least mid day Wednesday as showers become predominant. Lightning activity will ramp back up, along with rainfall rates, Wednesday afternoon as the aforementioned mid level disturbance moves into western NM and provides added forcing.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The mid level disturbance will exit north into Colorado early Thursday and leave behind a worked-over atmosphere that will take some time to destabilize with daytime heating. At the same time, PWATs will trend down Thursday across western NM as the Monsoon moisture plume leans east. PoPs have trended down Thursday as a result and a more limited round of convection is now expected. That said, grounds will be saturated, so less rainfall will be needed to cause flash flooding Thursday. What remains of the Pacific low/trough will get caught up in the westerlies and move across NM as a shortwave trough on Friday, interacting with left- over moisture and producing a round of showers and storms with continued flash flood potential, especially from Ruidoso east to the TX border. The PWAT downtrend will continue into Saturday, with the westerlies bringing some warming and drying through the weekend. A Pacific trough/low is forecast to move through the region early next week, potentially interacting with moisture from major Hurricane Polo and bringing another round of showers and storms with soaking rainfall to much of NM.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, will continue for the remainder of tonight, Wednesday, and Wednesday night. The exception will be along and west of the continental divide, where there will be decreasing coverage of showers and storms starting late Thursday evening. Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions are also forecast for the remainder of tonight through Wednesday night during periods of heavier precipitation, fog, and low clouds. Any flight category restrictions from XNI, to GUP, to FMN should be shortlived. Storm motion for the remainder of tonight will be toward the north at speeds from 15-25 KT. On Wednesday, storm motion will be toward the north around 25-35 KT across central and eastern areas, and mostly toward the southeast at speeds around 10-15 KT along and west of the continental divide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as an active late Monsoon season pattern persists. High humidity and soaking rains are forecast through the end of the work week, followed by some warming and drying over the weekend. The pattern turns wet again early next week as a Pacific low moves across the region and interacts with tropical moisture to produce more soaking rains and high humidity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 82 56 68 54 / 40 70 60 60 Dulce........................... 73 47 63 45 / 70 80 90 90 Cuba............................ 74 50 60 48 / 60 90 90 90 Gallup.......................... 77 51 63 46 / 60 80 60 40 El Morro........................ 68 49 58 44 / 70 80 90 60 Grants.......................... 71 52 61 48 / 60 90 90 70 Quemado......................... 70 52 60 48 / 70 90 90 50 Magdalena....................... 70 54 59 51 / 70 100 100 70 Datil........................... 69 51 57 47 / 70 90 90 70 Reserve......................... 74 53 67 49 / 60 90 80 40 Glenwood........................ 77 57 74 54 / 60 80 90 50 Chama........................... 71 46 58 45 / 70 90 90 90 Los Alamos...................... 69 52 59 52 / 60 100 100 100 Pecos........................... 72 50 62 50 / 60 90 100 100 Cerro/Questa.................... 70 49 61 48 / 30 80 90 100 Red River....................... 62 43 53 43 / 40 80 90 100 Angel Fire...................... 66 39 58 38 / 60 90 90 100 Taos............................ 70 49 64 48 / 50 80 90 100 Mora............................ 63 49 61 49 / 60 100 90 100 Espanola........................ 80 54 66 53 / 50 90 90 100 Santa Fe........................ 73 53 62 53 / 70 100 100 100 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 53 64 52 / 60 90 100 100 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 57 67 56 / 70 90 100 100 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 57 66 56 / 70 90 90 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 58 68 56 / 60 90 90 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 58 66 57 / 70 90 90 90 Belen........................... 77 58 66 55 / 60 90 100 80 Bernalillo...................... 76 57 67 56 / 70 90 90 90 Bosque Farms.................... 75 56 67 54 / 70 90 90 80 Corrales........................ 75 57 68 56 / 70 90 90 90 Los Lunas....................... 76 57 66 55 / 60 90 90 80 Placitas........................ 72 56 64 55 / 70 90 100 100 Rio Rancho...................... 74 57 66 57 / 70 90 90 90 Socorro......................... 83 59 69 56 / 70 90 100 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 52 61 51 / 80 90 100 100 Tijeras......................... 67 54 62 53 / 70 90 100 100 Edgewood........................ 65 52 64 52 / 60 90 100 100 Moriarty/Estancia............... 73 52 66 50 / 60 90 100 100 Clines Corners.................. 70 52 63 51 / 70 100 100 100 Mountainair..................... 70 54 64 51 / 70 90 100 100 Gran Quivira.................... 69 54 64 52 / 60 90 100 100 Carrizozo....................... 79 58 68 56 / 60 90 100 90 Ruidoso......................... 70 54 63 52 / 70 90 90 90 Capulin......................... 73 51 64 51 / 30 50 80 100 Raton........................... 76 52 66 51 / 30 50 80 100 Springer........................ 76 53 68 53 / 30 70 80 100 Las Vegas....................... 70 52 61 51 / 50 90 90 100 Clayton......................... 78 58 71 59 / 20 70 80 100 Roy............................. 73 55 66 56 / 30 70 90 100 Conchas......................... 80 60 74 61 / 40 90 90 100 Santa Rosa...................... 74 59 69 60 / 40 90 100 90 Tucumcari....................... 84 61 76 60 / 30 90 90 90 Clovis.......................... 84 60 77 61 / 40 60 70 80 Portales........................ 83 62 78 63 / 40 60 60 80 Fort Sumner..................... 79 62 75 62 / 40 90 90 90 Roswell......................... 84 64 77 62 / 40 80 60 90 Picacho......................... 79 59 70 58 / 60 90 90 80 Elk............................. 74 57 69 56 / 70 90 90 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for NMZ201>234-237>241.