textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026 - Dry storms in far eastern New Mexico today may ignite new fires. Localized and erratic wind gusts near these storms may rapidly spread new fire starts. Critical fire weather conditions will also be present in east central and southeast New Mexico today. - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread will occur Saturday through Monday with the most widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions expected on Sunday and Monday.

- Moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the Eastern Plains due to near-record heat.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 142 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

A weak shortwave trough is traversing NM today with a slightly deeper upstream trough holding over the upper Gulf of CA and into AZ. At the surface, a cyclone is deepening over the TX and OK panhandles, and diurnal heating is leading to deep boundary layer mixing that is dragging down stronger momentum aloft (15 to 30 kt at 700 mb) and resulting in breezy to windy conditions at the surface. Weak showers and a few embedded storms have been already periodically impacting the southeastern counties of NM where mid level moisture and inability is highest, and this will continue through the mid to late afternoon. Also, dry thunderstorms will develop in northeastern NM on the backside of the surface low where some surface convergence and instability will be present as the weak shortwave approaches. This activity will all fizzle through sunset, with minimal rainfall, but a few stray lightning strikes and erratic outflows from evaporating precipitation shafts.

On Saturday, the shortwave trough will have exited with subtle movement and sharpening with the upstream Gulf of CA trough, and this will lead to a slight backing of the mid to upper level winds over NM. A new surface trough will develop to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos, introducing a stronger surface gradient across NM, and this will set up a breezy to windy day with most locations observing at least a slight increase in wind speeds. Surface moisture will continue to get shoved out of the state with meager mid level (~500 mb) moisture struggling to hold on over northern zones where high- based cumulus and perhaps some ragged virga will develop. Temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 142 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

The Gulf of CA trough will exit into CO Sunday morning as a weak shortwave while a stronger low dives and deepens over the Great Basin. The strongest jet segment will remain on the backside of the low over NV, but southwesterlies aloft will increase significantly over NM Sunday. A new surface low will bottom out over southeast CO, and this will increase the coverage of windy conditions over NM, especially in the eastern half of the state. Higher terrain zones along or near the central mountain chain would be the most likely candidates for a Wind Advisory. Low moisture availability with the warm southwesterlies will keep conditions very dry while fire danger escalates, and areas of blowing dust will likely develop Sunday afternoon.

The Great Basin low moves into UT Sunday night and then into CO Monday. This will send cooler air into NM while the winds remain strong (700 mb winds peaking Monday morning at 40 to 50 kt, particularly over the southern high terrain). A few more Wind Advisories seem within easy reach for Monday, particularly in northeastern zones, and a smattering of fast-moving light rain and snow showers/storms will skim across the northern border of the state.

Some upper level energy looks to hang back north northwest of the Four Corners region on Tuesday, keeping the gradient aloft tight while the backdoor front keeps cooler air feeding into eastern NM zones. Some surface convergence/upslope/orographics will yield precipitation with most modeled to stay in CO north of the Raton Pass. This could change going into Wednesday as a reinforcing backdoor front arrives and merges with return flow. This would then potentially evolve into a dryline setup Thursday and next Friday with the north-south oriented boundary being a mechanism to spawn convection near and east of the central mountain chain. This would be coupled with light south southwesterlies aloft as a weak trough stays offshore of CA. Variances among the ensemble means and clusters are not all that significant during the day 5 to 7 time frame with all clusters and members pointing toward some semblance of this dryline regime.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central New Mexico early this afternoon, but cumulus clouds are building with a few weak showers and thunderstorms expected to take shape across mainly northeastern and southeastern areas of the state this afternoon. Any showers or storms will produce very little to no rainfall at the surface due to evaporation below the clouds. However, abrupt and short-lived gusty winds will accompany this activity along with a few stray lightning strikes. Afternoon breezes will tend to gust to 20 to 30 kt this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions will subside this evening, only to redevelop Saturday afternoon when gusts will again reach 20 to 30 kt on a more widespread basis.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

A fire weather growing pattern is building with conditions likely reaching widespread critical to locally extreme status Sunday and Monday.

Critically low humidity is in place across most of northern and central NM this afternoon with breezy to windy conditions in progress. The windiest conditions are focused over the east central plains where a few gusts have exceeded 35 to 40 mph, and the Red Flag Warning remains in effect there. Winds will also get gusty beneath and near any showers or dry storms in Roosevelt or Union/Harding/northern Quay counties through the early evening. Then, winds will subside, relaxing the critical threat tonight, but humidity recoveries will not be very good tonight, only recovering to 40 to 50%.

Winds increase late Saturday morning into the afternoon with the development of another lee-side surface trough and seasonably strong winds aloft. Critical conditions look most likely in northeastern zones, so the Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning there for Saturday, but confidence is not quite high enough for remaining areas of central to east central NM. Humidity will easily drop below 10% in most central areas Saturday, so the wind speeds are the more marginal or limiting factor. Will let the next couple of shifts reassess and make the final call.

Into Sunday and Monday, conditions still appear to be aligning for a widespread critical to extreme event as approaching disturbances aloft drag stronger winds aloft into NM. Many locales are modeled to reach gusts of 40 to 50 mph, particularly in the eastern half of NM. The northwestern plateau and north central mountains look to have some periods of lighter winds Sunday, followed by scant, fleeting precipitation Monday which may limit the severity of critical fire weather very slightly. Otherwise, all zones look to need a Watch which will likely be forthcoming tonight or tomorrow.

The pattern then looks to shift to a cooler one in eastern zones on Tuesday, followed by the potential for a dryline to trigger storms in the eastern half of NM late next week. This would shift the focus from widespread windy conditions to localized threats from storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 86 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 40 82 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 46 82 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 42 80 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 44 77 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 45 82 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 80 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 46 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 82 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 44 86 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 39 75 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 79 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 47 84 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 78 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 36 71 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 34 75 34 69 / 0 5 0 0 Taos............................ 43 81 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 46 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 46 87 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 50 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 85 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 86 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 90 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 53 90 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 88 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 89 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 54 89 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 89 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 56 88 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 82 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 53 84 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 51 84 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 86 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 82 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 84 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 85 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 44 82 45 77 / 10 10 10 0 Raton........................... 44 86 45 81 / 10 10 5 0 Springer........................ 45 88 47 83 / 5 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 53 91 55 87 / 10 10 10 0 Roy............................. 49 87 51 82 / 0 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 54 95 58 90 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 54 92 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 56 97 61 93 / 10 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 56 94 56 91 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 96 57 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 94 55 91 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 97 57 94 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 91 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 55 86 53 81 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104-123.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ106-124>126.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ126.