textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The Monsoon high remains right overhead of NM today, and as such, we are seeing both scattered to numerous thunderstorms and high temperatures develop today. Thunderstorms have already developed along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and are very likely to continue this throughout the afternoon. These storms will be slow moving, given the orientation of the high almost directly overhead. Given that, and PWATs remaining above 1", the Flash Flood Watch looks good for this afternoon and evening. Of particular concern are a few areas within the current Flash Flood Watch: the Pecos Wilderness east of Santa Fe, northeast NM near/east of Raton, and highly saturated/sensitive areas near Gallup and Zuni Pueblo. REFS and HREF LPMM guidance has focused on the Pecos River area east of Santa Fe for localized rain amounts above 2", and this already seems to be playing out with the current Flash Flood Warning in effect as of 1pm. This storm is also traversing down the basin, which may compound the effects of flooding. Additionally, should this storm drift off to the southwest, urban flooding could become a concern near Santa Fe. In northeast NM, storms firing off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains are expected to cluster and push to and east of Raton through the afternoon and early evening. REFS and HREF LPMM again ping this area for heavy rainfall amounts, though there is a difference in the exact location of it (REFS being north of Highway 64/87, HREF being south). Nevertheless, heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely across that area, and with the soil being relatively dry, too much rain too quickly can cause flash flooding issues. For the Zuni Pueblo and Gallup area, storms are once again expected over this area, with the potential for several rounds through 9pm, and lingering showers thereafter. These locations remain very sensitive from previous flooding events and impacts, so it will not take as much rainfall to produce impacts throughout that region. Overall, the strongest thunderstorms look to taper off by 9pm, with scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms remaining through midnight at least.

The 18z ABQ sounding shows a 500mb height of 5971m, which puts it near the daily record 500mb height. This would be the reason for our very hot temperatures out there. Another round of Heat Advisories are in effect today, mainly for lower elevation areas in central, northwest, and eastern NM. The Heat Advisory was expanded to the Sandia and Manzano Mountains as much of the zone is forecast to hit or exceed their criteria (95F). Due to the warm low temperatures (mid to high 70s) across lower elevations, major to locally extreme Heat Risk is likely for areas near Socorro and Roswell today, so everyone will need to take precautions when spending time outdoors today.

For Wednesday, not much changes in the overall pattern, though the high pressure is forecast to decrease a decameter or two, therefore lowering temperatures just a touch. Even so, high 90s to low 100s will remain across much of the area, and moderate to major to locally extreme Heat Risk will persist. However, at least with this package, will not go with additional Heat Advisories tomorrow. Temperatures are not forecast to get to criteria across most of the area, so while there will be hot temperatures with warm low temperatures with higher levels of Heat Risk, we will not go with an Advisory. The message of heat safety continues though.

A shortwave looks to round the high and push through CO, producing scattered thunderstorms across our northern areas and pushing them off into the northeast plains. Depending on how much area that part of the state receives today (Tuesday), future shifts may need to consider additional Flash Flood Watches. Additionally, with the west to northwest flow, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm rolling off the mountains. Elsewhere, storm coverage decreases a bit compared to today, but still expecting scattered thunderstorms, mainly on the high terrain.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No significant pattern changes are forecast for the next several days, so the overall message may sound like a broken record when talking about storm chances and hot temperatures. Another shortwave looks to move across CO sometime on Thursday (which may be amplified by the MCV that was over AZ this morning) and help produce convection along the Front Range. Scattered thunderstorms are likely along the northern mountains into northeast NM for Thursday. This feature then works to push the center of the high pressure more to the west, which will work to shift the overall flow from north to south over much of NM. In turn, thunderstorms will favor this storm motion, and this sets the stage for folks along and just east of the central mountain chain to see a bulk of the precipitation, while potentially giving a reprieve to folks in western NM that have seen consistent rain. Throughout every day though, the hot temperatures remain with highs in the 90s to low 100s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across much of New Mexico. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds in excess of 30kts and brief MVFR to IFR visibilities in heavy rainfall. A few storms are already getting going across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains as of 1730z and are likely to continue until at least 03-06z. Most TAF sites include PROB30s for TS impacts, outside of KGUP where confidence was high enough for a TEMPO. Thunderstorm coverage should be on the downtrend by 03z, but showers are likely to remain through at least 06z across much of the area, and potentially as late as 12z across northeast NM. Outside of thunderstorms, winds remain rather light overall, and hot temperatures will continue to lead to high density altitudes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next several days. Daily thunderstorm chances continue across much of the area outside of southeast NM. Most storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Hot temperatures remain across the area as well, which correlates to the forecast mixing heights remaining well above 10,000ft across a majority of the area. Given the relatively dry nature of eastern/northeastern NM, it is not out of the question to see a lightning induced fire with storms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 69 97 68 98 / 10 5 20 0 Dulce........................... 59 93 55 93 / 50 40 50 10 Cuba............................ 63 91 61 91 / 50 20 40 10 Gallup.......................... 61 92 61 93 / 50 20 20 10 El Morro........................ 59 88 59 89 / 60 40 20 30 Grants.......................... 62 92 62 92 / 70 40 20 30 Quemado......................... 60 88 60 90 / 50 50 30 20 Magdalena....................... 66 91 68 92 / 50 20 10 40 Datil........................... 61 87 62 88 / 50 30 20 30 Reserve......................... 60 94 60 94 / 30 30 20 40 Glenwood........................ 65 98 64 99 / 20 10 20 20 Chama........................... 56 86 54 86 / 50 50 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 65 90 67 90 / 70 30 40 30 Pecos........................... 61 90 61 91 / 70 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 87 59 87 / 50 50 60 20 Red River....................... 52 77 51 78 / 60 50 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 51 82 49 83 / 60 50 60 30 Taos............................ 59 90 58 91 / 50 30 50 20 Mora............................ 58 86 57 88 / 70 50 60 40 Espanola........................ 67 97 66 96 / 60 20 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 65 91 66 92 / 60 10 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 94 64 95 / 60 10 30 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 97 71 99 / 60 5 30 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 98 69 99 / 60 5 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 100 68 100 / 60 5 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 99 71 99 / 60 5 30 5 Belen........................... 70 101 69 101 / 60 0 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 99 70 100 / 60 5 30 5 Bosque Farms.................... 70 100 67 100 / 60 5 20 0 Corrales........................ 71 100 70 100 / 60 5 30 5 Los Lunas....................... 70 100 69 100 / 60 0 20 0 Placitas........................ 69 96 69 97 / 60 5 30 5 Rio Rancho...................... 70 99 70 99 / 60 5 30 5 Socorro......................... 73 102 74 102 / 50 5 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 91 65 92 / 70 10 30 5 Tijeras......................... 65 92 65 94 / 70 10 30 5 Edgewood........................ 63 94 62 94 / 60 10 30 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 95 59 96 / 60 10 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 61 90 61 92 / 50 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 63 94 62 94 / 50 10 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 64 94 63 94 / 30 5 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 71 97 68 98 / 10 5 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 65 88 63 89 / 5 10 5 20 Capulin......................... 59 87 58 89 / 70 60 50 50 Raton........................... 59 91 58 94 / 60 70 50 60 Springer........................ 61 94 59 95 / 70 60 60 50 Las Vegas....................... 59 90 59 91 / 60 30 40 40 Clayton......................... 66 96 67 99 / 60 20 40 30 Roy............................. 64 93 64 95 / 50 20 40 30 Conchas......................... 70 102 69 104 / 40 5 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 99 67 100 / 20 5 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 71 103 71 104 / 20 5 20 0 Clovis.......................... 70 102 69 101 / 5 0 5 0 Portales........................ 71 103 70 101 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 72 102 70 103 / 5 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 74 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 69 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 66 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ204>209-211>215- 218-221-227>230-241.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-217-219>221- 234>238.