textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1030 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026 - Slick travel conditions from the next round of valley rain and high elevations now favoring the northern half of New Mexico forecast late Friday through Saturday night. Low risk of exacerbated flooding impacts.

- Quiet, dry, and mild weather will prevail across northern and central New Mexico through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 116 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

A tranquil weather pattern remains over NM early this morning, underneath the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure. Satellite imagery is showing another round of low clouds and fog developing over the Permian Basin, with the HiRes RRFS indicating a fair chance of it expanding up the Pecos River Valley toward Roswell later this morning. KROW has already reported visibility briefly dropping to 2SM already, but has since increased again. While much less likely relative to last night's fog event, will have to monitor nevertheless.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is quickly skirting west to east across the central Great Plains. This feature will send down a weak frontal boundary backing south and west thru eastern NM today. Very little sensible weather changes will be evident from this frontal boundary aside from a northeasterly wind shift and only a minor drop in temperatures. Calm and tranquil weather persists into Thursday as the upper level ridge amplifies directly over NM. Highs remain 5-10F above normal, ranging from the 50s in the mountains to 60s in lower elevations, with low 70s over parts of eastern NM.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 116 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Friday begins the long term period with continued tranquil weather with an encroaching change to the weather pattern from the west. This changing weather pattern will feature two upper level troughs traversing west to east over the region, bringing unsettled weather this weekend. Numerical model guidance remains in good agreement that the 1st system will take a southerly track along the international border with rain showers favoring the southern third of NM or so. The 2nd system will take a more northerly track across the state, favoring the NM/CO border. This system looks to bear a 90- 100kt H3 jetmax along its southern flank, with the ECMWF and GFS both resolving this system undergoing cyclogenesis and closing off to an H5 low. Differences remain in the solutions with when this will occur however, ranging from over northern AZ, to just lee of the Rocky Mts. Nevertheless, valley rain and mountain snow (Snow Levels favoring 8,500' - 9,500') will favor the northern third to half of NM Saturday afternoon. The 1st system will also have helped advecting northward some lower level moisture from the Gulf up along the NM/TX border where some afternoon/evening shower activity will also be present. A quick and healthy round of 0.25" to 0.50" of precipitation will favor west facing slopes of the northwestern mountains during this time. Despite these relatively modest precipitation amounts, the still sensitive and very soaked ground conditions present across northwestern NM may still allow for minor flooding concerns there. Current probabilities of 25% to 45% for 0.50" of precipitation or higher favors the higher elevations of the CO San Juan Mts where orographically enhanced precipitation will likely fall as snow.

Saturday night into Sunday morning will feature lee cyclogenesis acting to strengthen the H5 low as it quickly ejects eastward over northeastern NM. With aforementioned advection northward of 45F-50F Td's up the TX Panhandle into eastern NM, these factors will combine to allow for a brief period of some robust showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two over northeastern and east-central NM Saturday night into Sunday morning. Precipitation clears out of northeastern NM last by Sunday afternoon.

Regarding winds, gusty westerlies of 35-45mph are favored over the higher terrain of western and central NM. H7 winds of about that magnitude are currently being modeled with this system, and the accompanying surface low over eastern NM is not very deep. Gusty northerly winds will fill in behind this system through northeastern NM, competing with westerlies south of I-40 Sunday afternoon. This will create some marginally hazardous crosswinds on area highways thru eastern NM during this time.

After a brief intermission Monday seeing clear and tranquil weather conditions over the Land of Enchantment, the next Pacific storm system in the series approaches the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Amongst global numerical model suites, there exists a split between this next H5 low opening and ejecting northeastward over UT/CO and a deeper trough lasting longer over the Desert Southwest before lifting northward. The GEFS suite currently favors the former by roughly half of its members, with the Canadian GEPS suite in the latter's camp. Both scenarios favor another round of precipitation over the northwestern third to half of NM, favoring west facing slopes of the northern mountains Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs. A weak boundary shifting south and west across eastern NM this morning will bring a brief period of gap winds to the RGV with gusts up to 15KT possible from KSAF to KABQ this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

A building ridge of high pressure over the state will keep calm and tranquil conditions persistent over the state, highlighted by widespread poor ventilation today and Thursday. A weak frontal boundary bringing a northeasterly wind shift to eastern NM will be the one minor interruption today. A mix of poor to good ventilation arrives Friday as transport winds pickup out of the southwest in advance of two approaching storm systems from the west. The 1st of which will favor light precipitation over the southern third of the state, while the 2nd will bring more notable wetting precipitation in the form of valley rain and high elevation snow to the northern third to half of NM. Westerlies pickup this weekend, with gusty winds of 35-45mph favoring the higher elevations of western and central NM Saturday, then elevated northerlies through northeastern and east-central NM through the day Sunday. Clearer conditions with lighter winds return Monday ahead of the next storm system next Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 60 33 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 26 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 62 27 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 32 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 62 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 60 35 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 57 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 68 27 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 71 32 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 58 31 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 30 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 59 32 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 54 20 55 22 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 58 14 59 16 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 62 27 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 60 29 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 66 31 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 36 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 67 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 69 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 68 33 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 69 37 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 69 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 37 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 63 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 26 65 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 58 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 62 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 62 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 40 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 57 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 59 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 62 28 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 64 27 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 59 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 64 41 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 61 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 67 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 64 36 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 38 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 68 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 68 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 39 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 64 34 66 35 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.