textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A yin and yang weather pattern remains over the Intermountain West highlighted by a 596dm H5 high centered near Salt Lake City while an inverted wave continues to progress slowly westward across southern NM. While this past evening's convection has exited westward into AZ, CAMs are picking up on the potential for a cluster of showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm developing near the center of the aforementioned low over southern Socorro County early this morning predawn. Otherwise, conditions look to be fairly tranquil elsewhere across the forecast area to start Tuesday.

This afternoon's diurnally driven convection will again favor development over the high terrain along and west of the central mountain chain. Steering flow will generally take storms E to W early, before switching more SE to NW by the evening as the low begins to non-canonically make a right turn at Albuquerque toward the Four Corners region and Navajo Nation. With PWATs still hovering at or above the 90th percentile in the 1.00" to 1.20" range over much of the state, any of these afternoon storms could become very efficient rain producers. Good steering flow favoring storm motions of 10-20 mph will help limit the flash flood potential though. However, a marginal to slight flash flood risk remains mainly for areas along west of the Continental Divide as any potential flooding impacts will depend on a game between the modest storm motions and storms tracking over already rain soaked areas or over the same location repeatedly. A Flood Watch issuance over west-central NM and the southwest mountains in Catron County was considered due to this. However, water vapor imagery is showing a notable tongue of dry air protruding over the area north of the center of the inverted low/trough. The latest runs of numerical model guidance does not seem to be picking up on that just yet. HiRes CAMs also denote general rainfall totals of 0.10" to 0.50" with only localized amounts reaching 1.00+" from stronger and more rain efficient thunderstorms. NAEFs climatology also depicts only a 1 std dev of PWAT over the region, with the higher anomalous monsoon moisture further west into AZ and this could be lower given the aforementioned tongue of dry air. All of that to say a Flood Watch was not issued for west-central NM and the southwest mountains in Catron County, though there remains a low 5% to 10% risk of flash flooding if storms can move slower, along and parallel to drainage basins, overcome mid-to-upper level dry air intrusion and track over the same areas repeatedly.

Regarding flash flood potential for the Ruidoso area burn scars Tuesday, the dry air tongue is north of the area allowing for deeper monsoonal moisture to linger. A N/NW storm motion will also favor potential anchoring of updrafts near or just south of the burn scars allowing for longer residence time of thunderstorm activity. Therefore, the Flood Watch there remains intact. Wednesday sees a similar but slightly less flash flood risk with northerly steering flow taking storms along the Sacramento Mtn ridgeline and over or near the burn scars.

Evening convection lingers longest over western NM, clearing out overnight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday sees the tango dance between the inverted trough and the monsoon high swing the high over northern TX and the trough over SE UT. This will again favor afternoon thunderstorm activity along and west of the central mountain chain. The subtle difference will be higher convective activity along the Sangre de Cristo Mts relative to recent days. Storm motions will also favor a S to N direction. Subsequent convection will try to build over nearby valley areas of north- central NM and could favor areas of Rio Arriba and northern Sandoval Counties fairly well in terms of rain amounts late day and evening. Late evening will try to spread into the Rio Grande Valley, but steering flow looks to be a bit too northerly to truly favor the ABQ metro area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday sees the monsoon high slide over NM bringing hotter temperatures to the area, notably eastern NM where low to mid 100s will be favored again. Highs in the 90s to near 100 will favor lower elevation areas of central and western NM. A moderate to high heat risk will result each day, mainly for central and eastern NM as a result. Lingering low-level moisture will favor a moisture recycling trend each day Thursday onward through the weekend with little changes to the overall weather pattern as the high loiters over NM. As such, expect daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity developing over the high terrain, slowly meandering over surrounding lower elevations late afternoon, and lingering and dying out through the late evening hours. Wetting footprints will be small as such, with localized rain shafts under storms. Any flash flooding concerns will be where the slowest storms occur, but suppression beneath the high should limit this threat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Another round of afternoon thunderstorms will favor development over the central and western high terrain before being steered WNW/NW toward AZ and the Four Corners region. Have maintained TEMPO/PROB30s at KFMN-KGUP-KABQ-KAEG for this activity. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions will accompany any of the stronger showers and storms. Otherwise, breezy prevailing E/SE winds will reach KSAF and KROW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

There are no fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days as monsoonal moisture remains alongside light to modest prevailing winds. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will continue to favor development over the high terrain. Steering flow will take storms to the NW and N today and Wednesday. Slower storm motions will be favored Thursday onward as the monsoon high sets up residence over central and northern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 66 90 64 / 40 70 40 60 Dulce........................... 93 54 87 53 / 50 60 60 70 Cuba............................ 87 59 86 58 / 40 40 20 60 Gallup.......................... 86 58 85 58 / 80 50 60 40 El Morro........................ 81 56 81 56 / 70 50 70 50 Grants.......................... 86 58 86 58 / 50 30 70 40 Quemado......................... 80 56 82 57 / 80 40 60 40 Magdalena....................... 82 62 84 64 / 50 20 30 20 Datil........................... 78 57 81 59 / 80 40 70 20 Reserve......................... 84 55 87 56 / 90 50 50 20 Glenwood........................ 86 58 91 59 / 90 60 40 30 Chama........................... 86 53 80 52 / 40 50 60 70 Los Alamos...................... 86 64 85 65 / 40 40 20 40 Pecos........................... 87 58 86 59 / 10 40 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 57 84 58 / 10 10 40 30 Red River....................... 76 50 75 50 / 10 10 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 81 46 79 48 / 20 20 80 40 Taos............................ 89 57 86 57 / 10 10 40 40 Mora............................ 83 56 83 55 / 20 30 40 30 Espanola........................ 95 65 92 65 / 20 30 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 88 63 86 64 / 20 30 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 62 89 62 / 20 30 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 67 91 67 / 30 40 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 68 92 69 / 30 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 65 94 66 / 30 30 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 67 93 68 / 30 30 10 30 Belen........................... 92 64 95 66 / 50 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 94 67 93 68 / 30 40 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 91 63 93 64 / 40 20 10 20 Corrales........................ 94 67 94 68 / 30 40 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 91 64 93 66 / 40 20 10 20 Placitas........................ 89 66 89 67 / 30 30 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 93 67 92 68 / 30 40 10 30 Socorro......................... 92 68 95 70 / 40 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 61 86 62 / 30 30 40 20 Tijeras......................... 86 61 87 63 / 30 30 40 20 Edgewood........................ 87 59 87 59 / 20 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 57 90 57 / 20 20 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 84 58 85 58 / 20 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 86 59 88 60 / 50 20 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 84 59 86 60 / 40 10 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 84 64 88 65 / 60 20 50 10 Ruidoso......................... 79 59 84 59 / 80 20 60 20 Capulin......................... 87 59 87 61 / 10 10 10 10 Raton........................... 94 60 93 59 / 20 10 20 10 Springer........................ 93 60 93 60 / 10 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 87 58 88 59 / 10 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 96 67 98 69 / 0 10 5 10 Roy............................. 90 64 91 65 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 97 68 98 69 / 0 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 92 65 94 66 / 0 10 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 99 71 103 72 / 0 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 96 69 99 69 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 97 69 100 70 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 69 99 69 / 0 5 5 0 Roswell......................... 98 71 101 71 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 89 65 92 65 / 30 10 10 10 Elk............................. 85 61 88 60 / 40 10 20 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for NMZ226.