textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Despite a weak cold front currently across eastern New Mexico, above average temperatures will persist through at least Thursday areawide.

- A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers with mountain snow from Friday through Saturday morning. Several inches of snow are forecast above 8,000ft and there is a good chance of difficult travel conditions in the mountains. - The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next week, with potential for more precipitation across western NM.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1122 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft and Pacific moisture advection through Wednesday night will bring increasing cloud cover, with low chances (20-40%) for showers across north central and northwest portions of the area. A weak backdoor cold front currently banked-up against the central mountain chain is bringing cooler conditions to eastern NM today, but temperatures are still at or above average behind the front. Despite increasing cloud cover, daytime temperatures will persist above average on Wednesday. Breezy conditions are forecast across eastern NM Wednesday afternoon as a lee side trough begins to deepen, with gusts to between 25-30mph.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1122 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

All eyes turn to a Pacific trough/low gathering offshore of SoCal and the Baja Peninsula on Thursday, which is forecast to move over NM Friday through early Saturday and bring a round of widespread precipitation. Above to well above average temperatures will persist Thursday in advance of the Pacific low, but are forecast to cool down closer to average on Friday thanks to increasing cloud cover and the onset of precipitation. The Pacific low won't be particularly deep feature and is forecast to be around 559-561dam at 500mb as it moves across the state. Rain is expected for most population centers with snow levels starting out between 8-9Kft, relegating accumulating snow and associated impacts to the mountains. Snow levels will fall Friday night to around 7Kft as the colder air aloft associated with the Pacific low moves overhead. 700mb temperatures are modeled to drop to between -2 and -4C across the area by 12Z Saturday. Difficult travel conditions will likely develop in the mountains Friday evening and continue through Saturday morning. At this time, we're anticipating an advisory-level event for the mountains, with only very low probabilities for warning amounts in the southern Sangre De Cristos. An upper level ridge will follow behind the rapidly departing Pacific low this weekend, bringing temperatures back above average areawide by Sunday.

The west coast troughing pattern will amplify early/mid next week as the polar jet turns onshore near SoCal and is steered over the Desert SW and NM. The 12Z medium range model solutions are in good agreement with this pattern development, but differ on the exact details. At this time, we have moderate forecast confidence that progressively windier conditions will develop across our area from early to mid next week, with a deepening lee side trough and the polar jet being the main players. Pacific moisture and lowering snow levels with strong orographic forcing may bring winter impacts to the western and northern NM from early to mid next week and those details will gain clarity over the coming model cycles.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Gradually lowering, but still VFR, ceilings are forecast over the next 24 hours across the Land of Enchantment, due to incoming Pacific moisture aloft. KFMN has a chance (30%) of light showers developing from late morning Wed onward, but most likely focused after 21Z. There is even a very low (5%) chance of thunder during this timeframe, but much too low to mention in TAF. Current upstream obs and latest model guidance (such as the LAV) suggest that the east canyon wind at KABQ will be delayed and weaker than earlier forecast, so have trended TAF in this direction. Otherwise, breezy south-westerly winds develop Wed afternoon, especially in the eastern Plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least Sunday. Above average temperatures and mostly good ventilation will persist through Thursday as Pacific moisture increases over the area, bringing higher humidity and increased cloud cover. A Pacific low will impact the region Fri/Sat with cooler temperatures, good chances for wetting precipitation and accumulating snow in the mountains. The jet stream will get active over the region from early to mid next week, bringing progressively stronger winds. Critical fire weather conditions may return as early as Monday, but Tue/Wed are forecast to be the windier days. At this time, the main area of concern for critical fire weather conditions next week will be the northeast and east central plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 37 60 35 60 / 10 40 30 5 Dulce........................... 26 57 30 58 / 10 50 50 20 Cuba............................ 32 58 32 57 / 5 30 40 20 Gallup.......................... 28 58 25 59 / 5 20 10 5 El Morro........................ 33 59 32 57 / 5 20 10 5 Grants.......................... 28 63 28 62 / 0 10 10 5 Quemado......................... 33 61 33 60 / 0 10 5 5 Magdalena....................... 40 63 40 62 / 5 5 5 10 Datil........................... 36 60 34 58 / 5 5 5 5 Reserve......................... 33 65 31 65 / 0 10 0 5 Glenwood........................ 36 70 35 69 / 0 10 0 5 Chama........................... 26 50 28 51 / 5 40 40 20 Los Alamos...................... 36 56 38 57 / 5 10 30 10 Pecos........................... 29 59 33 59 / 0 5 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 53 34 54 / 0 10 20 5 Red River....................... 28 45 30 46 / 0 10 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 19 52 25 52 / 0 10 20 10 Taos............................ 26 58 30 58 / 0 10 20 5 Mora............................ 26 60 31 59 / 0 5 10 5 Espanola........................ 30 64 34 64 / 0 10 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 36 58 38 59 / 5 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 33 60 35 61 / 5 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 63 44 64 / 5 10 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 65 41 66 / 0 5 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 36 68 40 68 / 5 5 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 38 65 41 67 / 5 10 10 5 Belen........................... 33 68 37 67 / 5 5 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 36 66 41 67 / 0 10 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 32 68 37 68 / 0 5 10 5 Corrales........................ 36 67 41 67 / 5 10 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 34 67 38 67 / 5 5 10 5 Placitas........................ 39 62 42 62 / 0 10 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 37 65 41 67 / 5 10 20 10 Socorro......................... 39 70 42 70 / 0 0 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 35 58 38 59 / 0 10 20 10 Tijeras......................... 36 60 39 59 / 0 5 20 10 Edgewood........................ 31 63 35 62 / 0 5 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 65 30 64 / 0 0 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 30 59 35 60 / 0 0 5 5 Mountainair..................... 34 63 37 62 / 0 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 35 63 37 63 / 0 0 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 40 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 38 61 40 61 / 5 5 0 5 Capulin......................... 26 59 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 23 61 29 62 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 23 65 29 65 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 28 61 34 63 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 31 61 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 28 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 30 68 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 31 63 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 69 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 32 64 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 31 63 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 62 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 39 60 40 72 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 36 65 39 72 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 34 69 37 71 / 0 0 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.