textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists late Friday across far east central and northeast NM.

- After a quieter weekend, chances for thunderstorms will trend back up early next week, peaking on Tuesday across eastern NM where severe storms can not be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak trough aloft hanging back over AZ while an upper low drops southeast into the central Rockies and steers drier westerlies across southern CO and northern NM. This action is increasing moisture convergence in the lower boundary layer along/east of the central mountain chain, where convective initiation is underway and a storm has already gone severe several miles southwest of Maxwell. The severe thunderstorm threat will increase closer to the TX/OK borders through the early evening hours, with the highest severe probabilities across Union Co where muCAPE is forecast to approach 2,500J/kg, LIs of -6C and 0-6km bulk shear of 35-40kts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued for Union and Colfax Counties through the early evening hours. Convection is forecast to follow a fairly normal diurnal downtrend this evening with the loss of daytime heating and/or move east into the OK/TX Panhandles.

The upper low will eject east out of the central Rockies Friday morning and send a cold front southwest through northeast and east central NM, pulling up stationary along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos south through the Central Highlands. The front will act as a focus for convective initiation late afternoon, with storms then moving east across east central and northeast NM over the shallow frontal layer through the evening hours. The SPC has portions of the northeast and east central plains in a marginal risk area on the day 2 convective outlook, which will primarily be a hail threat. Elsewhere south and west of the front, dry and warm condition will prevail with temperatures near average. The front will continue backing west through the central mountains late Friday night, creating a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV between Santa Fe, Albuquerque and Los Lunas.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Pressure heights will be on the uptrend through the weekend, with a 585dam 500mb high directly overhead by Sunday afternoon. A relatively moisture rich lower boundary layer will persist along/east of the central mountain chain Saturday, fueling another round of daytime heating triggered convection. Lower severe probabilities exist Saturday, except for across far northeast NM where 0-6km bulk shear will be more favorable. Warmer conditions are forecast Sunday under the influence of the upper high, with temperatures reaching above average most areas. Moisture advection will ramp up Monday in advance of a Pacific low approaching from over SoCal. The medium range model solutions are showing some run-to-run consistency in depicting a wet scenario on Monday across western NM due to forcing from the rapidly approaching Pacific low, so forecast confidence is increasing that much-needed rainfall is on the way for parched western areas. The Pacific low is modeled to fill, open up and lift northeast across NM on Tuesday, bringing continued chances for showers and storms that will be highest across eastern NM where a few severe storms can't be ruled-out. Temperatures will take a dive on Tuesday and be below average areawide. Drier westerlies will move in behind the departing Pacific low on Wednesday, but storms may persist across northern NM.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Low level moisture will not slosh back to the west quite as far tonight, thus widespread low clouds are not expected. However, patchy MVFR cigs, especially across northeast NM, will develop through the overnight hours. A backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM around 12Z and slide southward through the morning hours before stalling near a KSXU to KPRZ line. Expect breezy north to northeast winds behind the front, with gusts up to 35kt. On Friday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop along this frontal boundary. Storms will be capable of hail and gusty winds as they shift eastward into west Texas. Outflow from these storms will push the frontal boundary further south and west Friday night. Another east (southeast) canyon wind will develop at KABQ (KSAF) btw 06Z and 09Z Sat.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the middle of next week, but elevated to near-critical conditions prevail this afternoon across central and western NM. Warm and dry conditions will persist across western NM through the weekend and any storms that do develop will be on the drier side, favoring strong/erratic wind gusts and potential for lightning ignitions. Chances for wetting storms exist through Saturday across eastern NM, where humidity will be higher and temperatures will be cooler. A Pacific low will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting storms to much of the area Mon/Tue, although eastern NM is favored for soaking rains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 43 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 35 76 35 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 41 76 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 36 77 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 39 79 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 75 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 76 52 77 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 44 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 39 81 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 42 85 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 49 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 41 77 44 76 / 0 0 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 73 42 73 / 0 5 10 10 Red River....................... 33 63 35 63 / 0 5 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 29 69 31 69 / 0 10 20 20 Taos............................ 38 77 39 77 / 0 0 5 5 Mora............................ 40 73 42 72 / 0 10 20 50 Espanola........................ 45 83 48 82 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 46 77 50 77 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 80 48 80 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 48 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 81 55 81 / 0 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 51 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 78 50 78 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 48 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 45 80 47 80 / 0 0 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 81 43 81 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 45 76 45 75 / 0 10 5 20 Mountainair..................... 46 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 46 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 54 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 52 74 51 75 / 0 10 0 20 Capulin......................... 40 66 38 67 / 5 30 60 60 Raton........................... 40 73 40 72 / 0 40 60 60 Springer........................ 40 75 42 74 / 0 30 50 40 Las Vegas....................... 42 75 44 73 / 0 20 20 50 Clayton......................... 47 72 46 72 / 20 20 30 40 Roy............................. 45 74 45 73 / 0 30 40 30 Conchas......................... 49 83 50 81 / 0 30 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 48 81 48 80 / 0 30 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 51 84 50 82 / 10 20 40 20 Clovis.......................... 51 86 52 84 / 20 20 20 20 Portales........................ 51 88 51 85 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 50 86 50 85 / 0 20 10 20 Roswell......................... 54 90 55 89 / 5 10 0 20 Picacho......................... 52 84 52 82 / 0 10 0 20 Elk............................. 50 82 50 82 / 0 10 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.