textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Diurnal rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing over the high terrain midday before spreading across adjacent lower elevation areas later in the day early to mid this week. Moderate risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this week.

- Hotter temperatures late this week will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms that have developed over the Central Mountain Chain will shift southeastward through the afternoon and evening. Though shear is not terribly impressive, around 15-25kts, there is around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Thus, a few strong to severe storms are expected through the evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Meanwhile, thanks to brief gap winds last night, enough moisture is in place for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Tusas, Jemez and eastern portions of the west central and southwest mountains. The probability of heavy rainfall in these storms is lower, but chances for gusty and erratic winds remains high. Further west near the AZ border, virga and sprinkles with gusty winds will prevail, but a dry thunderstorm can't be ruled out. All storms should have diminished or moved into Texas by the midnight hour.

PWATs continue to increase across western NM tonight into Monday thanks to a disturbance rounding the western portion of the upper high and outflow boundaries pushing low level moisture westward. As such, Monday afternoon looks to be a typical monsoon day with showers and thunderstorms developing by late morning or early afternoon across the high terrain. Storms across northwest NM will be on the drier side where PWATs will be lowest. Other storms will be capable of small hail and brief heavy rainfall. All storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds. Storms along the Central Mtn Chain should generally shift toward the south- southeast, but storm motions elsewhere should be slow and erratic as the upper high will be centered over western NM. Once again, precipitation should largely end by midnight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Not a lot of change from Monday to Tuesday, except mid level dry air will push into eastern NM and less QPF is modeled over the Ruidoso area. Storms will again form on the higher terrain and spread onto adjacent lower elevations through the evening. As it looks now, storms should focus over central NM Tuesday evening which will be the best chance for precipitation in the ABQ metro area through the next week.

The upper high is still expected to shift/elongate westward on Wednesday. Mid level dry air will begin to push into northwest NM which will keep any storms that develop there on the drier side. Otherwise, moisture will continue to recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms though coverage should be slightly less than on Tuesday. This trend continues on Thursday. Drier air continues to push into western NM Friday, but an outflow boundary looks to press into at least NE NM which will increase storm coverage there. Meanwhile, the upper high will gradually shift northeastward Thursday through Saturday, and set up over UT and strengthen to near 600dam by Saturday afternoon. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected Thursday with triple digit heat expected for the Rio Grande Valley and portions of eastern NM. Drier air will rotate into NM over the weekend causing storm chances to dwindle.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Clearing skies and light winds overnight into Monday morning. Another crop of scattered to numerous thunderstorms develops of the higher terrain midday before spreading into nearby lower elevations later in the day. Storms across southern and central high terrain areas will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. Gusty outflow winds from nearby storms at terminals across central NM during the late afternoon and evening. Drier showers and thunderstorms across northwest NM, including KGUP, will produce gusty and erratic winds, dry lightning and patchy blowing dust.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will focus across eastern NM through this evening with some storms producing heavy rainfall, hail and strong winds. Meanwhile, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue west of the Central Mountain Chain and these storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds. Some dry lightning is also expected. Moisture will increase across western NM tonight through Monday. Storms will develop over the high terrain late Monday morning or early afternoon in typical monsoon fashion. Dry lightning will be favored across northwest NM where PWATs will be lowest. Storms will shift over adjacent lower elevation areas through the evening. A similar set up is expected through Thursday, though storm coverage will decrease a bit both Wednesday and Thursday. Each day, brief heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty winds will be the rule, though dry storms will also be possible through Wednesday across northwest NM. By Thursday, there will likely be too much dry air in place for storms to develop across NW NM. Temperatures will climb Wednesday and Thursday and by Thursday afternoon, highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. On Friday, dry air will continue to shift into western NM, but an outflow boundary moving into northeast NM will increase the potential for storms there. Storm coverage will trend down next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 97 62 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 93 49 92 51 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 90 57 91 57 / 0 0 5 20 Gallup.......................... 86 57 92 57 / 10 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 78 57 86 56 / 10 0 20 20 Grants.......................... 86 57 90 56 / 10 0 20 10 Quemado......................... 80 60 88 58 / 10 5 20 10 Magdalena....................... 83 65 88 63 / 30 5 40 20 Datil........................... 79 60 86 58 / 20 5 50 20 Reserve......................... 89 56 92 53 / 10 5 50 20 Glenwood........................ 92 60 97 56 / 10 5 60 30 Chama........................... 84 48 84 49 / 0 0 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 82 62 87 64 / 20 5 20 20 Pecos........................... 84 54 90 56 / 20 5 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 54 86 55 / 5 5 5 5 Red River....................... 72 46 76 48 / 10 5 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 81 40 81 41 / 20 5 20 10 Taos............................ 89 53 89 55 / 10 5 5 5 Mora............................ 80 51 84 54 / 30 5 40 10 Espanola........................ 92 60 95 62 / 5 5 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 85 60 90 61 / 10 5 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 57 92 58 / 10 5 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 64 97 62 / 5 5 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 65 96 67 / 0 5 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 64 97 65 / 0 5 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 66 97 66 / 0 5 0 10 Belen........................... 96 63 98 64 / 5 5 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 94 64 97 65 / 0 5 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 92 61 96 62 / 0 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 95 64 97 65 / 0 5 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 93 62 97 62 / 0 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 89 65 93 66 / 5 10 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 93 65 95 67 / 0 5 0 10 Socorro......................... 96 71 98 71 / 20 5 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 89 62 / 10 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 88 60 91 61 / 10 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 86 57 90 60 / 20 10 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 52 92 54 / 20 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 85 54 87 57 / 20 20 30 20 Mountainair..................... 86 58 91 60 / 20 5 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 83 59 89 59 / 40 5 30 30 Carrizozo....................... 85 64 92 65 / 40 10 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 79 57 84 58 / 60 10 50 20 Capulin......................... 82 52 86 57 / 60 5 20 10 Raton........................... 87 50 92 53 / 40 5 20 10 Springer........................ 88 52 93 56 / 30 5 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 88 57 / 30 5 30 20 Clayton......................... 90 59 93 63 / 60 10 0 5 Roy............................. 87 56 89 61 / 40 5 0 20 Conchas......................... 95 60 97 65 / 30 20 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 90 60 93 64 / 30 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 98 61 96 67 / 30 40 0 10 Clovis.......................... 94 62 93 66 / 30 50 0 0 Portales........................ 95 63 97 67 / 30 50 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 62 95 67 / 30 20 0 10 Roswell......................... 96 67 98 69 / 30 10 0 10 Picacho......................... 86 62 92 64 / 40 10 20 10 Elk............................. 82 58 87 60 / 40 10 50 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.