textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend. Isolated flash flooding will be a concern each afternoon, including over the Ruidoso area burn scars, with Saturday being of particular concern.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across portions of northern New Mexico through late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The moist monsoonal airmass remains across the region as we sit between subtropical ridging to the east and troughing to the west. We will see a similar convective pattern to yesterday, though with faster cloud clearing this morning, modestly greater surface heating and destabilization will support scattered to numerous showers and storms. Activity will focus over the central mountain chain westward, with some showers and storms spreading to the northeast and the east central plains during the evening hours at around 10-20 mph. With ample moisture in place (PWATs generally 1.0-1.3 inches, with the 18Z ABQ sounding coming in at 1.19 inches), heavy rainfall will be possible. This is particularly the case for portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico, as well as the northern mountains, where HREF LPMM guidance hints at isolated 24-hour totals of 1-2 inches. While east-northeasterly progressive storm motions should generally limit the duration of rainfall at any one location, localized flash flooding remains a hazard, especially in areas with vulnerable terrain and/or recent heavy rainfall.

On Saturday, PWATs decrease a tad, but with CAPE values around 1000 J/kg, particularly across portions of the Sacramento Mountains and the Ruidoso area, any developing storms will be of concern. With favorable low-level convergence, forecast steering flow running parallel to the terrain, and sufficient moisture, this setup could result in slow-moving, repeating rounds of precipitation, especially over and near the burn scar areas. Forecast QPF totals are around 0.75 inches to just over an inch, but some high-res guidance is displaying isolated totals between 1-2 inches. With flash flooding potentially becoming a significant threat in and downstream of the Ruidoso burn scars, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued, beginning at 17Z Saturday until 00Z Sunday.

Farther north, a mid-level disturbance crossing the south-central Rockies will likely initiate a cluster of thunderstorms east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with some activity potentially extending into portions of our CWA in far northeastern New Mexico. Steep lapse rates aloft and around 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear could support isolated storms capable of hail and severe wind gusts. Heavy rain is also a threat, particularly where any storms interact with the terrain and/or repeatedly move across the same areas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The ridge will gradually shift west into New Mexico on Sunday, disrupting our moisture inflow. However, with weaker winds aloft, this will allow for the pooling of moisture across western and northern New Mexico. This setup looks to produce the most widespread coverage we will see over the next few days, favoring the northern high terrain. Storm motions will be slow and erratic increasing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Additionally, soils in northeast NM are incredibly dry and may act as hydrophobic surfaces, allowing for fast runoff and quickly developing flash flooding. One thing that will need to be watched is how Saturday's storm development and remnant outflow boundaries may affect the placement and strength of the forecast storms on Sunday.

By early in the work week, the strengthening ridge will promote drier and warmer conditions, allowing highs to return to near or slightly above normal. Forecast confidence is still a bit low as we head past midweek. However, models are starting to come into a bit more agreement regarding the evolution of the western ridge and downstream troughing. As of writing, models have a weak trough moving across the Rockies and through the Plains, sending a backdoor front or two through the northeastern corner of the region. This will help increase precipitation chances once again by late in the week, however, mainly focused on the higher terrain. Since a good deal of uncertainty still surrounds the forecast this far out, details are subject to adjustment as the larger scale pattern becomes better defined in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

This afternoon and evening, scattered showers and storms will favor the central mountain chain westward, with some showers and storms spreading to the northeast and east central plains during the evening hours. Storm motion will be toward the northeast around 10-20 knots. Any stronger storms will be capable of very brief CIG and VSBY restrictions as well as producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 knots. Skies will gradually clear overnight, but SCT to BKN VFR CIGs will persist across much of the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next several days. Humidity recoveries will consistently be good to excellent through tomorrow morning, becoming fair to excellent Sunday through the end of next week. Storm coverage through the remainder of the day will be scattered to numerous, with storms moving from southwest to northeast at 10-20 mph. Very brief outflows from any stronger thunderstorms can be expected. Precipitation chances target the central mountain chain on Saturday, before expanding in coverage again on Sunday as the center of the ridge shifts westward. This weekend will be the highest chances for wetting rainfall we have seen so far over the last several days. Isolated flash flooding will be a concern this weekend, including over recent burn scars. Ridging will remain in place over the desert southwest early next week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms generally favoring the higher terrain and drier conditions expected elsewhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 58 90 59 92 / 5 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 54 87 55 89 / 20 5 0 5 Cuba............................ 58 86 58 88 / 30 5 0 20 Gallup.......................... 52 86 53 88 / 20 5 0 30 El Morro........................ 55 81 56 82 / 30 10 5 40 Grants.......................... 54 87 53 87 / 30 10 5 40 Quemado......................... 56 82 58 84 / 20 10 5 50 Magdalena....................... 61 83 62 84 / 30 30 10 50 Datil........................... 55 80 57 81 / 30 20 10 50 Reserve......................... 57 88 58 90 / 20 20 10 40 Glenwood........................ 62 93 63 94 / 10 10 10 40 Chama........................... 52 81 53 81 / 20 5 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 61 83 63 80 / 40 30 5 50 Pecos........................... 56 87 55 84 / 30 20 10 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 83 55 82 / 30 20 5 50 Red River....................... 46 72 48 70 / 30 40 10 70 Angel Fire...................... 42 76 42 74 / 40 50 10 80 Taos............................ 54 85 52 83 / 30 20 5 40 Mora............................ 54 82 54 79 / 40 50 10 90 Espanola........................ 63 92 64 92 / 30 10 0 40 Santa Fe........................ 57 87 56 81 / 30 10 5 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 89 59 85 / 30 10 5 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 91 65 91 / 30 5 5 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 91 67 90 / 30 5 5 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 93 66 93 / 30 5 5 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 65 93 / 30 5 5 40 Belen........................... 66 95 67 95 / 30 10 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 65 93 65 93 / 30 5 5 50 Bosque Farms.................... 64 93 65 94 / 30 10 5 40 Corrales........................ 65 94 65 94 / 30 5 5 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 94 65 94 / 30 10 5 30 Placitas........................ 65 90 64 89 / 30 10 5 60 Rio Rancho...................... 67 93 68 94 / 30 5 5 40 Socorro......................... 66 94 66 93 / 30 20 5 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 87 62 86 / 30 10 5 60 Tijeras......................... 62 88 63 87 / 30 10 5 60 Edgewood........................ 60 88 60 87 / 30 20 5 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 90 55 89 / 30 20 10 60 Clines Corners.................. 58 85 57 81 / 30 20 10 70 Mountainair..................... 59 88 60 87 / 30 20 10 70 Gran Quivira.................... 60 87 60 86 / 30 30 10 70 Carrizozo....................... 65 89 65 90 / 20 40 10 60 Ruidoso......................... 59 81 59 81 / 10 70 10 70 Capulin......................... 57 84 57 79 / 30 60 40 90 Raton........................... 56 86 56 84 / 30 60 30 90 Springer........................ 57 89 56 85 / 30 50 20 90 Las Vegas....................... 54 84 54 80 / 40 30 20 80 Clayton......................... 65 91 63 86 / 30 30 60 50 Roy............................. 61 90 61 85 / 30 20 40 70 Conchas......................... 68 98 67 93 / 30 20 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 67 94 66 91 / 20 20 30 50 Tucumcari....................... 71 100 68 95 / 20 20 40 40 Clovis.......................... 68 96 67 94 / 10 10 20 10 Portales........................ 69 97 68 96 / 10 10 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 69 97 69 95 / 20 20 20 20 Roswell......................... 70 99 69 98 / 10 20 20 5 Picacho......................... 65 92 64 92 / 20 60 20 10 Elk............................. 61 88 60 88 / 20 70 20 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NMZ226.