textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues in the lower Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands today and possibly on Wednesday.

- Strong, erratic wind gusts from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM through this evening.

- Overnight rain showers and patchy drizzle over eastern New Mexico will give way to increasing thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday east of the central mountain chain.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

A nearly stationary H5 trough draped from northeast to southwest across the Great Basin will keep dry southwest flow aloft over the southern Rockies thru Wednesday. At the surface, a moist backdoor cold front that surged southwest thru eastern NM this morning is banked up against the central mt chain with gap winds still gusting to around 30 mph in the RGV. Surface convergence between the dry southwest flow across western NM and the moist southeast flow from eastern NM will help to develop gusty high-based showers over the northern mts thru this evening. This activity will move quickly northeast before fizzling out over the Sangre de Cristo Mts by midnight.

Low level southeast flow will persist over eastern NM tonight and help widespread low stratus to develop east of the central mt chain. 13Z NBM ceiling probabilities <3,000' are 40-60% over east-central and northeast NM with probs <1,000' around 20-40%. Several model soundings also support patchy drizzle over parts of the eastern plains with enough elevated instability for light rain showers as well. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much instability will be present over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. CAMs and global models are all over the place with convective initiation, coverage, and even the existence of storms east of the central mt chain. QPF amounts with models that do show storms are all over the place as well. The latest SPC convective outlook expanded the 'Marginal Risk' over eastern NM. Low level moisture will remain in place over eastern NM Wednesday night with high chances for more low stratus east of the central mt chain (40-60% chance).

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

By Thursday and Friday, forecast models are in very good agreement dragging a more well-defined H5 trough from the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains. This will help to force drier zonal flow eastward across more of NM with near total scouring of low level moisture from eastern NM. Downslope flow will allow temps to trend warmer over eastern NM with widespread breezy west winds and humidity below 15% (except perhaps northeast NM).

Surface high pressure building down the Front Range in the wake of the departing trough axis is shown forcing a moist backdoor cold front into eastern NM Saturday. Meanwhile, an H5 ridge is shown building over the southwest U.S. thru early next week with low level return flow improving Sunday and Monday. This may begin a much anticipated pattern change toward increasing chances for showers and storms with measurable rainfall amounts. The 13Z NBM 50th percentile QPF has widespread amounts >0.10" over central and western NM with >0.20" over eastern NM Sunday thru Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Until midnight, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream northeastward at 20-30 KT along the continental divide and over the northern mountains. Some cells will produce localized, brief, and erratic dry microburst, or mostly dry microburst, wind gusts up to 45 KT. After midnight, widespread low clouds and areas of fog will develop east of the central mountain chain producing MVFR and IFR conditions. Areas of light rain or drizzle are also expected overnight, with isolated rain showers in the mix, and a small chance of a few lightning strikes. Showers will increase in coverage across eastern areas Wednesday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening along and east of the central mountain chain. A few storms may turn severe with large hail and damaging winds mainly between 20-03Z Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Critical fire weather over the lower Rio Grande Valley and nearby highlands today may return tomorrow with similar conditions to today. RFTIs may trend a tad lower Wednesday but ERC values are still high with an even longer period of single digit humidity. Confidence is not high enough yet to issue a Fire Weather Watch given wind speeds are more marginal. If speeds trend stronger then a Red Flag Warning may be needed. Breezy south to southwest winds with more single digit humidity over central and western NM Thursday and Friday will lead to widespread elevated fire weather. Confidence is higher that winds will remain below critical thresholds. Meanwhile, eastern NM will be under the influence of moist southeast flow and increasing chances for low clouds, patchy fog, drizzle, showers, and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

Beginning Saturday, a pattern change toward more widespread moisture with lighter flow aloft is anticipated. This transition may bring higher chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall over much of the region thru Tuesday, especially eastern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 42 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 36 73 30 76 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 42 73 39 74 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 77 39 77 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 78 49 75 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 46 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 39 78 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 83 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 66 33 69 / 20 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 50 72 49 73 / 20 10 5 10 Pecos........................... 43 70 43 73 / 5 30 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 69 41 70 / 40 20 0 10 Red River....................... 32 64 31 64 / 50 20 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 31 65 29 65 / 30 40 20 20 Taos............................ 40 73 36 74 / 20 20 5 5 Mora............................ 40 67 42 70 / 30 30 50 30 Espanola........................ 48 79 45 80 / 10 10 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 49 72 48 74 / 10 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 75 45 77 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 82 53 81 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 84 50 83 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 86 49 85 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 51 86 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 84 50 84 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 86 45 84 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 85 51 84 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 86 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 79 52 79 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 53 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 56 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 76 48 75 / 5 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 46 79 44 79 / 5 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 77 43 77 / 5 10 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 77 40 79 / 5 10 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 44 68 44 73 / 10 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 46 79 44 77 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 78 45 76 / 5 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 81 52 80 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 74 50 73 / 5 20 5 10 Capulin......................... 36 59 39 65 / 20 10 60 50 Raton........................... 40 64 41 70 / 20 30 60 50 Springer........................ 42 65 43 72 / 20 20 60 60 Las Vegas....................... 42 64 44 71 / 20 30 60 30 Clayton......................... 42 60 46 69 / 10 20 70 60 Roy............................. 42 61 45 70 / 20 20 70 50 Conchas......................... 47 69 48 79 / 20 30 70 40 Santa Rosa...................... 47 68 47 76 / 20 40 50 40 Tucumcari....................... 48 71 49 79 / 10 40 60 50 Clovis.......................... 50 69 51 79 / 20 50 40 30 Portales........................ 50 71 50 80 / 20 50 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 50 73 49 81 / 20 50 30 30 Roswell......................... 57 80 55 85 / 20 50 20 20 Picacho......................... 52 77 50 80 / 10 50 10 30 Elk............................. 49 81 48 81 / 5 30 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106.