textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Areas of fog and freezing fog will create hazardous driving conditions across the eastern plains and western valleys Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Unsettled weather returns across western and parts of central New Mexico late Tuesday into early Wednesday and will result in some slick road conditions across the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1232 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

The main weather story for today remains the low clouds across eastern NM. The morning fog has eroded, but the clouds will remain throughout the afternoon given easterly/northeasterly upslope flow on the backside of the upper level low. This will work to keep temperatures across eastern NM in the mid to upper 40s, with those lucky locations that can see a few breaks in the clouds getting into the low 50s. Across central and western NM, low clouds are less persistent outside of the US-550 corridor from Farmington to Cuba. Low to high 50s are likely for high temperatures across central and western NM, with areas along the lower Rio Grande Valley having a decent chance to hit 60F. Surface flow across eastern NM turns more south and southeast by tonight, continuing the upslope flow and continued low cloud development. There is a good chance for patchy fog across several locations, with higher confidence from the Estancia Valley northeast towards Clayton. One limiting factor for fog in Clayton tonight will be stronger winds (up to 10-15mph compared to 6-8mph last night) not allowing for development to occur. Across northern and western NM, fog and freezing fog is likely to develop again, primarily in valley locations. In terms of temperature tonight, the low clouds and fog will limit how far temperatures can drop, especially in valley locations. Most likely lows look to be mid to upper 30s across eastern NM, with mid 30s to upper 20s elsewhere. However, should fog not materialize in some places, especially in valley locations prone to radiational cooling, temperature may be cooler than forecast.

Another day of low clouds and potential fog is in store Monday. Clouds should remain across eastern NM, but there is only moderate confidence in the spatial and temporal aspects of them. The latest REFS guidance has low clouds clearing out of northeast NM by the late afternoon (likely driven by the breezy conditions previously mentioned), while keeping low clouds along and south of I-40 through the evening. How long these clouds remain will also impact the high temperatures tomorrow. Currently looking at low 50s across eastern NM, with high 50s to low 60s across western and central NM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1232 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

While fog and low clouds persist through the short term period, a more active weather pattern begins the long term period. A robust trough will push into the western coast of the US and progress further towards NM. There is good model agreement that a shortwave progresses through the trough and reaches the Four Corners region by early to midday Tuesday. As it does, models also agree on the trough becoming more negatively tilted, adjusting the flow of the trough to be southwesterly. 700mb temperatures also look to be 1C to 3C before the trough passage, dropping to -1C to -3C after the passage. With all this combined, rain and high elevation snow showers look poised to develop Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday morning. Overall rainfall amounts look low at this time, with only a few hundredths to 0.1-0.2" across the area. The higher amounts for this system, and where snowfall is likely to occur, will be in the northern mountains, particularly the Tusas Mountains. Snow levels are forecast to be ~9,000-9,500ft, with locations above that in the Tusas Mountains forecast roughly 2-4" at this time. Also cannot rule out a few inches across parts of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains at a similar snow level. Below the rain/snow line, a few areas may see up to 0.25-0.5" of rainfall, primarily driven by orographic forcing. A question with this system is how much moisture will actually be present within it. The ECMWF is a bit wetter than the GFS at this time, and progresses the colder 700mb temperatures faster into NM, though it's resolution makes it difficult to resolve terrain snow. We'll have to keep watch on the progression of the system for if a Winter Weather Advisory will be necessary.

A secondary feature with the approaching trough will be stronger southwest 700mb winds. At this time, the winds look to be passing through the state during the nighttime hours of Tuesday, which brings into question whether these winds can mix down to the surface with nighttime inversions forming. To counteract that, a surface pressure gradient looks to develop across much of eastern NM (and especially in northeast NM). Afternoon and overnight breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to develop, with those winds continuing across portions of eastern NM into Wednesday morning.

The latter half of Wednesday and Thursday look to be fairly tranquil in comparison as weaker upper level flow sits over the state and we place ourselves in between two systems. The next system to approach NM looks to occur late Thursday through Friday. This comes in the form of another robust trough moving inland towards the Four Corners region, which is forecast to move over the state and provide additional precipitation and winds. Recent model runs have shown that the trough axis has slowly been trending north, which would suggest the bulk of the precipitation developed by this system misses NM. Nevertheless, this system looks to continue a stretch of active weather across the region with rain and snow showers. In terms of winds, 700mb winds look similar to the first system crossing Tuesday, however this system is currently progged to cross the state during peak heating hours, allowing for easier mixing of upper level winds to the surface. Thus, forecast winds are higher across much of the state, especially eastern NM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions persist in eastern NM under a deck of stratus clouds. Surface visibility has been gradually increasing through the morning, and MVFR/IFR conditions are primarily looking to be ceiling- based through the afternoon. For TAF sites, KROW is the site with highest confidence in MVFR conditions through this evening, with most clouds burning off or not existing at other TAF sites. A few areas along and west of KSXU may see a reprieve of MVFR conditions this evening, primarily between 00-06z. Low clouds will remain throughout the night tonight, bringing additional MVFR to IFR conditions, with locally LIFR/VLIFR (primarily in fog across eastern/northeastern NM). For central and western NM, there is lower confidence in fog/low clouds this evening and overnight, though better chances will be in the northern mountains near KSKX and KAXX. Best chances for these conditions across western NM will be after 09z, including KGUP and KFMN.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 PM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. However, a few days are forecast to have breezy to windy conditions. For today and tomorrow, low clouds and mainly light winds persist across eastern NM, with excellent humidity recovery across the forecast area. A system approaches Tuesday with light rain showers across portions of western and central NM, with a few inches of snow likely above 9,000 to 9,500ft across the northern mountains, especially within the Tusas Mountains. Southwest winds will also increase Tuesday afternoon and evening, with 20-30mph gusts likely across western and eastern NM, with a slight chance for higher gusts primarily in northeast NM. Showers taper off Wednesday morning and Wednesday and Thursday look to have minimal impacts. A system looks to return Friday with additional rain and snow showers, along with better chances for stronger winds than Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 35 58 37 61 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 24 58 26 59 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 29 53 33 52 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 26 58 31 58 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 28 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 28 56 33 56 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 29 61 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 33 55 37 53 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 30 55 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 35 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 26 50 28 51 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 33 53 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 26 55 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 51 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 22 46 24 45 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 12 50 16 51 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 54 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 26 56 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 28 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 54 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 32 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 59 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 59 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 35 62 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 30 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 35 62 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 30 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 30 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 38 57 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 35 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 36 62 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 54 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 34 55 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 31 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 59 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 56 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 31 55 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 35 56 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 33 54 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 32 50 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 29 54 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 30 57 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 28 55 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 37 52 39 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 50 33 52 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 35 57 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 36 54 39 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 36 56 39 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 39 53 41 55 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 39 53 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 37 52 40 54 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 41 52 43 56 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 38 54 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 34 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.