textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 421 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Mostly fair weather conditions and above average temperatures are forecast through the middle of next week. However, the combination of windy and dry conditions in east central New Mexico on Monday will lead to an increased risk of rapid fire spread.

- A pattern change to cooler, windy, and unsettled conditions is in store for late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1258 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

An upper low remains cut off from the polar jet, and is spinning offshore of the Baja Peninsula. This feature will wobble slowly southward today with mostly clear skies over NM as last evening's shortwave energy shifts farther east, allowing weak subsidence and drier air aloft to build into the Land of Enchantment. Winds have already begun to turn northerly in northeastern NM early this morning, and this northerly wind shift will spread across the remaining NM plains through the late morning. This will offer a few degrees of cooling, but daytime high temperatures will still run 10 to 15 degrees above normal area-wide today.

Not necessarily surprising, but forecast models have slowed the eastward progression of the cut-off low, barely carrying it toward the lower Baja peninsula by late day Monday. This will keep the best large scale ascent and diffluence well south of our forecast area, so another dry day will be in store. Only high cirrus clouds are projected to make it into our area with the better mid to lower layer moisture staying much farther south. A lee-side surface low will develop near the northeast corner of NM Monday afternoon, and a small speed max aloft (winds of 25 to 35 kt at 700 mb) is projected across the I-40 corridor of eastern NM. This will yield windy conditions across east central NM while very low dewpoints in the single digits and teens mix down, creating very low humidity amid the above average warmth. High temperatures will reach 10 to 20 degrees over climatology, especially in east central to northeastern NM where downsloping winds will create compressional warming.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1258 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

The cut-off Baja low is finally projected to increase its eastward pace, but American models (GFS/NAM) are lagging with respect to the more progressive European and Canadian solutions. At any rate, the low would cross Chihuahua and far west TX sometime Monday night into Tuesday, offering minimal opportunity for precipitation in our forecast area. Southeastern zones would have just a 10 to 30% chance for a brief round of light showers late Tuesday. The above average warmth would persist, but the edge would be taken off in the eastern plains as another backdoor front arrives Tuesday.

For Wednesday, forecast models have slowed the increase in west southwesterlies aloft with modeled 700 mb wind speeds being reduced by 10 to 15 kt. A lee-side surface trough would still take shape Wednesday, kicking up breezy conditions as wind directions swing around from the southwest. The NBM introduces 10 to 40% POPs to the northern mountains by late Wednesday in response to the next upstream perturbation, a weak shortwave trough that would mostly impact UT and CO into Wednesday night. Any rain or high mountain snow that falls late Wednesday into Wednesday night would be light and mostly inconsequential.

Low probabilities for light shower activity continue across western to north central NM zones into Thursday, but latest deterministic guidance has backed off on the forcing with a less perturbed, but still brisk (15-35 kt at 700 mb), west southwest flow. Would not be surprised if subsequent model runs lead to a patterned reduction in POPs for Wednesday and Thursday, with the better window for large scale ascent starting to align more on Friday with the next approaching longer wave trough.

That being said, there are still significant discrepancies regarding the Friday system with the GEFS mean representing faster solutions that the GEPS, and much more so than the ENS. Regardless of timing, this wave or closed low would offer considerably more forcing for precipitation and enough of a maritime influence for better precipitation production, given its Pacific origins. There is still potential for a backdoor frontal intrusion near the crossing of the upper level perturbation, more- so with a slower European solution. Based on latest model runs, temperatures on Friday would likely fall closer to normal with snow levels commonly hovering between 7,500 to 8,500 ft. Saturday morning's weather would be dependent on the speed and exiting of the wave, but by late in the day all solutions indicate drier and fairly seasonable conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

High clouds in far eastern New Mexico will thin out and most will clear by the afternoon, so VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. A weak surface front has brought northerly winds to much of the eastern plains of New Mexico, but speeds are forecast to remain light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Mostly clear skies will prevail today with slightly cooler, but still well above average, temperatures as a weak front enters the eastern plains. Dry conditions will persist into Monday, and surface dewpoints (and consequently RH) has trended lower into Monday afternoon. The scenario will be complicated more by a strong lee- side surface low and a speed max aloft that will combine to create critically strong winds juxtaposed over the very low RH, particularly in east central to northeastern NM. With a few small wildfires already in progress in these areas, and a credible threat for critical conditions, we are opting to issue a Fire Weather Watch across east central NM for Monday afternoon.

A cut-off low will slowly cross south of NM Monday night into Tuesday, but unfortunately no precipitation is slated for the ABQ Fire Weather area. Breezy conditions are slated to take shape on Wednesday, but model projections have reduced wind speeds from what they were 24 hours ago. Mostly dry conditions will prevail into Wednesday and also through Thursday with just light and scant shower activity over western to north central NM. Better relief in the form of rain and mountain snow, as well as cooler temperatures and higher RH, will arrive on Friday when the next disturbance aloft is projected to cross NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 59 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 60 21 60 21 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 58 26 60 29 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 60 17 63 22 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 59 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 61 20 66 23 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 60 26 64 30 / 0 0 5 5 Magdalena....................... 60 34 64 38 / 0 0 5 5 Datil........................... 58 30 61 32 / 0 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 67 26 67 29 / 0 0 5 5 Glenwood........................ 71 29 72 32 / 0 0 5 5 Chama........................... 53 23 53 24 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 56 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 59 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 46 25 49 28 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 53 14 54 19 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 58 22 61 23 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 60 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 64 25 66 26 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 59 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 29 62 31 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 66 25 68 30 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 66 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 66 31 68 35 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 27 68 32 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 61 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 66 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 68 33 71 36 / 0 0 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 33 59 36 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 59 35 60 37 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 61 28 63 32 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 20 65 26 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 59 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 61 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 31 64 35 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 66 36 66 40 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 60 36 60 41 / 0 0 5 10 Capulin......................... 59 29 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 61 24 68 25 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 64 23 71 23 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 27 66 30 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 66 37 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 28 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 71 30 77 33 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 66 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 32 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 72 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 70 31 76 37 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 72 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 69 37 71 42 / 0 0 5 5 Elk............................. 69 34 67 40 / 0 0 5 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for NMZ104-123-125-126.