textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 536 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may produce strong downburst wind gusts, brief rain, and blowing dust today.

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and continuing into next week may increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 131 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

PWATs increased across the region late Friday as moisture from AZ moved northeast into NM on the backside of the upper high centered over southern NM. Water vapor imagery shows there is still a very dry mid and upper level airmass over the Great Basin moving east toward the Four Corners. This dry air will mix into the region again today on slight northwest breezes (min humidity <20% many areas). Isolated showers and storms that do form over the area will be mostly dry and gusty with DCAPE >1000 J/kg. A backdoor cold front currently surging southwest thru eastern CO will make its way into northeast NM by early this afternoon. The boundary may allow for greater coverage of storms with wetting rainfall into this evening. Otherwise, more very hot temps are expected today with several records likely.

The backdoor cold front will likely washout late tonight and Sunday morning as the upper level high moves east and 700-500mb layer flow becomes more south/southwest over NM. Stronger moisture advection will begin over the region with PWATs surging above 1" most areas. There is likely to be greater coverage of showers and storms Sunday with locally heavy rainfall. Models continue to indicate a westward ridge extension into southern NM from the upper high over TX both Sunday and Monday. This may force the greater coverage of locally heavy rainfall mainly into northern and western NM while southeast NM remains hot with only slight chances of storms.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 131 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper high gets kicked much farther east while an upper level low/trough moves from the Pac NW into the Great Basin. The door opens for a monsoon burst pattern to surge north into NM with 90th %tile PWATs for mid September at KABQ (>1.2"). Several perturbations are shown by extended models moving north from MX with numerous to widespread showers and storms for our region. The upper level low/trough over the Great Basin moves east across the central Rockies on Thursday and Friday and helps to provide greater forcing/ascent for more showers and storms over the southern Rockies. The 4-day QPF is impressive with just about the entire region progged to receive >1.25". Locally higher amounts from the NBM 90th %tile and WPC are >3". The flood risk will increase with each passing day of heavy rain. However, it is still extremely dry in many areas so impacts may be confined to areas with training storms, burn scars, urban areas, and low- lying areas. Forecast confidence is increasing slightly but is still only moderate given the consistently underwhelming performance of this monsoon season. Confidence is higher that temps will trend closer to normal for mid September with greater cloud cover and higher humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A sharp northeast wind shift will enter northeast NM by 8AM then shift south to the I-40 corridor by 12PM. Gusts of 15-25KT will occur in the wake of this boundary. Isolated SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain and over eastern NM between 1PM and 4PM then move east with strong and erratic wind gusts >35KT, brief rain, and some lightning. The surface boundary over northeast NM may move southwest again tonight toward the central mt chain with patchy low cigs possible over far northeast NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Today will not be as dry as Thursday and Friday but many areas will still see min humidity values below 20% with northwest gusts of 15 to 25 mph and very hot temps (record highs). Isolated high-based showers and storms will develop again today near the high terrain then move east into nearby lowlands and eastern NM with small footprints of wetting rainfall.

The monsoon high will shift east of NM Sunday and Monday while an upper level low moves into the Pacific Northwest. A better tap of moisture is expected to slide north into central and western NM with increasing coverage of storms with wetting rainfall. A monsoon burst pattern may impact the region Tuesday thru Friday with more widespread rainfall. Max temps will trend cooler in this pattern with excellent overnight recoveries in many areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 61 89 61 / 0 5 10 60 Dulce........................... 89 47 88 49 / 0 0 30 70 Cuba............................ 87 56 86 56 / 5 0 30 60 Gallup.......................... 85 55 85 54 / 10 5 10 30 El Morro........................ 82 53 82 52 / 20 10 40 40 Grants.......................... 86 56 86 55 / 20 10 60 40 Quemado......................... 84 57 84 56 / 20 20 50 40 Magdalena....................... 86 61 85 61 / 30 20 30 30 Datil........................... 82 56 81 56 / 30 20 40 30 Reserve......................... 89 56 88 57 / 40 10 20 30 Glenwood........................ 96 61 94 63 / 20 20 10 40 Chama........................... 83 51 80 50 / 0 0 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 86 62 85 61 / 10 10 20 40 Pecos........................... 89 57 87 57 / 20 5 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 56 83 56 / 5 0 10 20 Red River....................... 82 42 79 44 / 5 5 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 82 40 80 43 / 10 0 20 20 Taos............................ 90 52 88 54 / 5 0 10 30 Mora............................ 86 54 84 54 / 20 5 40 20 Espanola........................ 94 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 40 Santa Fe........................ 89 63 87 62 / 10 5 10 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 90 60 / 10 5 5 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 68 91 68 / 10 5 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 66 93 66 / 5 5 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 65 95 66 / 5 10 5 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 68 94 68 / 5 5 5 40 Belen........................... 95 64 95 64 / 5 5 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 97 66 95 66 / 5 5 5 40 Bosque Farms.................... 95 63 95 63 / 5 5 5 30 Corrales........................ 97 67 95 67 / 5 5 5 40 Los Lunas....................... 95 65 95 65 / 5 10 5 40 Placitas........................ 92 65 90 65 / 5 5 5 30 Rio Rancho...................... 96 66 93 67 / 5 5 5 40 Socorro......................... 97 69 97 68 / 10 10 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 61 85 60 / 10 5 10 30 Tijeras......................... 92 62 89 62 / 10 5 10 30 Edgewood........................ 93 59 90 58 / 10 5 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 56 92 56 / 10 5 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 88 59 88 59 / 10 5 20 20 Mountainair..................... 90 59 89 59 / 10 0 5 20 Gran Quivira.................... 89 59 89 59 / 10 5 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 92 65 / 10 5 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 86 60 85 59 / 20 5 60 5 Capulin......................... 83 55 87 58 / 10 5 10 5 Raton........................... 89 53 90 56 / 10 5 10 5 Springer........................ 92 54 92 57 / 10 5 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 88 56 87 57 / 20 5 20 20 Clayton......................... 89 60 94 67 / 10 0 0 5 Roy............................. 91 59 90 63 / 20 5 10 10 Conchas......................... 99 64 99 69 / 20 5 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 95 64 94 67 / 10 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 98 66 99 70 / 10 10 0 10 Clovis.......................... 101 69 99 68 / 10 20 0 0 Portales........................ 102 70 100 69 / 5 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 101 67 99 69 / 10 20 0 10 Roswell......................... 103 70 101 70 / 10 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 97 65 95 63 / 30 10 30 5 Elk............................. 95 61 93 60 / 30 5 30 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.