textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds will redevelop today and Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph being common. Higher gusts to 40 mph will be focused over northeastern New Mexico.

- Light rain becomes more confined to northwestern and southeastern New Mexico today and Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures and strong northeasterly to easterly gusty winds will accompany a cold front Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Southwesterly flow remains over New Mexico, wedged between a highly amplified upper level trough over the western CONUS and high pressure ridging along the TX Gulf coast. The next vortmax rotating around the southern tier of the trough is helping the southwesterly flow become slightly more meridional in nature, sliding a steady stream of showers with embedded thunderstorms back west and more squarely over AZ today. This vortmax feature is progged to ride up through the Four Corners area and Navajo Nation tonight, bringing showers with perhaps stray embedded thunderstorms back into the northwestern tier of NM from Gallup to Farmington to Dulce. Otherwise, a dryslot will keep conditions dry through central and eastern NM with windy conditions expected to mix down to the surface bringing gusts upwards of 25 to 40 mph this afternoon. A slight uptick in subtropical moisture being picked up from the south will bring a slight chance for a stray shower over southeastern NM late tonight into Tuesday morning.

This setup stays true through Tuesday despite the H5 closed low anchoring the current upper level trough digging down eastern NV. Southwesterly wind conditions do look to be a step weaker relative to today thanks to a weaker surface pressure gradient through northeastern NM. All the while, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to favor the northwestern tier of the state.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Wednesday begins the long term period with the by then ~565dm H5 low tracking westward into northwestern NM bringing a cold front west to east across the state thru the day. Showers will continue to favor the northern tier of the state with any snow relegated to the higher elevations of the northern mountains. Mostly dry and gusty conditions will continue to favor a SW-NE corridor across the state thru Wednesday with winds veering westerly and northwesterly behind the attendant surface cold front. Numerical model guidance is also in fair agreement that some percentage of moisture from TC Simon along the western Mexican coastline will get picked up and advected northward. Upper level forcing will be able to generate some thunderstorms over the southeastern tier of the state. Ample shear will allow some these storms to threaten severe gusts, and there is already a marginal risk for severe weather set out by the SPC.

A cool and dry fall airmass fills in west to east behind the surface cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With calming wind speeds overnight, radiational cooling will allow for low temperatures to plummet at many locations. Northern valley locations in particular will likely see their first freezes over the season, aside from the Moreno Valley where lows have already been regularly below freezing at times.

Thereafter, numerical and AI model suites have come into much better agreement with a piece of upper level energy from the polar jet being squeezed off over the Desert Southwest, generating its own new large but weak upper low Thursday. Subsidence behind the departing main upper low will send down a potent cold front, backing south and west through eastern NM. This front is progged to continue westward, surging thru the gaps and over the ridgelines of the central mountain chain late Thursday through Thursday night. The GFS and NAM12 in particular have strong H7 easterly winds of 40-50kts during this time, hence the thinking this will overtop the Sandia/Manzano's producing gusty easterly winds all areas of the ABQ metro outside of just the Tijeras Canyon. Wind Advisories and potentially even High Wind Warnings look to be hoisted for the Thursday night through Friday morning period for this event, focusing on those strong easterly winds gusting to 45-55mph, potentially higher, through the central mountain chain.

Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding how much moisture from the remnants of TC Simon gets pulled northward by this new upper low and into the Big Bend and southern NM area Friday and into next weekend. Regardless of the degree, precipitation chances will favor the southern third or so of NM Friday and heading into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Gusty southwest winds are already returning to some locations this hour and will spread over more of the area this afternoon, gusting 25 to 35kts before tapering off again this evening. Fast moving showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will favor far northwestern NM from KGUP to KFMN where lower ceilings are favored as well. A few sporadic showers may reach southeastern NM, potentially clipping KROW to KCVN tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Dry southwesterly winds gusting 25 to 40 mph this afternoon, and again Tuesday afternoon remains the main fire weather concern. Winds shift more westerly then northwesterly thru the day Wednesday as a cold front moves west to east across the state. Precipitation will continue to favor the far northwestern tier of the state with slight chances for light showers reaching southeastern NM tonight, and potentially stronger storms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Humidity will be the limiting factor for any critical fire weather concerns, notably Wednesday when temperatures fall as well.

Thereafter, a potent cold front backs south and west thru the state late Thursday thru Friday morning. Colder temperatures and higher humidity will limit fire weather concerns to a degree. However, wind speeds gusting 40 to 55 mph, potentially higher thru the central mountain chain south of I-40, will overcome that still yielding elevated fire weather. Winds taper off thereafter into next weekend with precipitation chances favoring far southern NM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 66 43 59 / 40 60 50 70 Dulce........................... 40 60 38 57 / 70 80 70 90 Cuba............................ 44 64 41 59 / 5 20 20 50 Gallup.......................... 43 62 39 57 / 40 50 50 20 El Morro........................ 41 63 38 56 / 10 10 40 20 Grants.......................... 45 68 42 61 / 0 5 20 10 Quemado......................... 44 66 42 61 / 5 0 20 5 Magdalena....................... 49 70 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 64 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 45 66 44 66 / 10 10 10 5 Glenwood........................ 49 71 47 70 / 10 20 5 10 Chama........................... 40 54 36 52 / 60 70 60 90 Los Alamos...................... 48 64 45 60 / 5 0 5 20 Pecos........................... 45 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 62 40 60 / 10 20 10 30 Red River....................... 36 53 32 52 / 10 10 10 40 Angel Fire...................... 22 61 29 58 / 0 5 5 20 Taos............................ 43 64 40 63 / 5 5 5 20 Mora............................ 39 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 48 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 48 66 45 64 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 68 45 66 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 74 51 71 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 75 51 72 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 77 51 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 75 51 72 / 5 0 0 5 Belen........................... 51 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 52 75 50 72 / 5 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 50 77 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 76 50 73 / 5 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 51 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 72 50 69 / 5 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 53 75 50 72 / 5 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 52 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 67 45 63 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 50 69 47 66 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 47 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 68 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 48 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 56 73 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 68 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 71 43 63 / 0 0 0 20 Raton........................... 43 74 41 67 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 45 77 41 70 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 47 68 43 65 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 59 80 52 70 / 0 0 0 20 Roy............................. 52 75 47 69 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 60 84 54 78 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 56 80 53 76 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 61 86 58 80 / 20 0 0 40 Clovis.......................... 62 87 59 81 / 20 0 10 60 Portales........................ 63 88 61 82 / 20 0 10 50 Fort Sumner..................... 59 85 56 82 / 10 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 61 90 59 87 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 54 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.