textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 205 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

- A series of storm systems will bring strong to potentially damaging westerly winds to eastern New Mexico Tuesday remaining strong through Friday.

- Slick to hazardous travel conditions from periods of rain and mountain snow and blowing snow across western and north central New Mexico Tuesday becoming mostly snow Wednesday through Friday as each storm system moves through the area.

- There is an increasing threat for rapid fire spread across eastern New Mexico Monday through Friday (peaking Tuesday) and portions of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley mainly Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

A nice and mild mid February day is underway across the state. High clouds are moving in from the west ahead of a potent Pacific upper low off the northern CA coastline. Breezy south-southwest winds across northeast and east central NM and around Socorro this afternoon with high temperatures 8 to 15 degrees above average for mid February. High clouds will increase late today into Monday as the upper level low/trough pushes into the Pacific Coast. Upper level and mid level winds increase across the state on Monday with 700 mb winds around 30 to 35 kts. This will result in stronger southwest breezes across the highlands and northeast and east central plains with peak gusts of around 30 to 40 mph. The southwest winds will result in even further warming, especially along and east of the central mountain chain with highs in the 70s to near 80. Southwest winds will increase further Monday night, especially across the higher terrain with peak gusts of around 50 mph, as 700 mb winds increase to 40 to 55 kts. These winds will keep overnight temperatures relatively mild in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

The first of a series of shortwaves around a 515 to 520 dam upper level low off the coast of Washington and British Columbia moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies on Tuesday. A plume of Pacific moisture along and just behind a Pacific cold front will result in lower elevation rain/snow and mountain snow across western and north central NM mid Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Precipitation will favor the west slopes of the western and north central mountains before quickly fizzling across the RGV and areas east of the central mountain chain due to downsloping effects. A brief period of heavy snow/blowing snow in the aforementioned mountain ranges will result in hazardous travel conditions across high mountain passes during the day Tuesday. Potential for a quick 2 to 5 inches of snow across the west slopes of the Tusas Mountains from around sunrise to early in the afternoon on Tuesday. The other significant hazard on Tuesday will be strong to damaging southwest to west winds across central and eastern NM. At the base of the shortwave will be a strong Pacific jet with speeds ranging from 150 to 180 kts at 250 mb across northern and central NM. Subsidence behind the Pacific front will allow these stronger winds higher up along with 700 mb winds of 45 to 60 kts to translate down to the surface resulting in widespread sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph with peak gusts of 50 to 70 mph. The peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent northeast and east central highlands and plains will see the higher end of this range of winds. For that reason, the High Wind Watch was expanded to include the rest of the northeast and east central highlands and plains. This will likely be upgraded to a High Wind Warning by tomorrow with Wind Advisories for surrounding zones of central New Mexico. With the strong downsloping winds, rapid fire spread will also be a concern across the eastern plains and northeast highlands. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to mid 20s, but this will be overcome by the very strong winds allowing potential fires to spread among fine fuels. Winds tapering off slowly after sunset but remain elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as mid and upper level flow remain brisk at the base of the longwave trough.

The next shortwave at the base of the longwave troughing over the western U.S. approaches the state during the day Wednesday. 700 mb winds around 40 to 50 kts combined with a 990 to 995 mb surface lee low over eastern CO will keep winds strong, albeit slightly weaker than Tuesday. Another set of Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the West Central Plateau, central mountain chain, and adjacent eastern highlands. Minimum relative humidity values across the middle and lower RGV and eastern NM will be lower at around 10 to 20 percent due to drier air in place resulting in another day for potential rapid fire spread among fine fuels. Mostly orographically favored precipitation will develop once again across northwest and north central NM Wednesday spreading into lower elevations of northwest and west central NM Wednesday night as the shortwave and Pacific cold front moves through. Snow levels with this 2nd system will be lower at around 5,500 to 6,500 feet. Precip looks to taper sometime Thursday morning as this shortwave exits into the central Great Plains.

Thursday looks to be not as impactful as Tuesday and Wednesday as the state looks to be in quasizonal flow between the upper level shortwave/low over the central Great Plains and the next shortwave/upper low along the California coast. Still looking at gusty west winds with the strongest winds across the highlands along and east of the central mountain chain where another set of Wind Advisories may be needed. Potential for rapid fire spread among fine fuels once again across the eastern plains. The third shortwave over California Thursday moves inland over the Great Basin and Four Corners area on Friday resulting in more precipitation along and west of the central mountain chain and strong to damaging winds along and east of the central mountain chain. Precip with this third shortwave looks to mainly be in the form of snow due to 700 mb temperatures around -8 to -10 deg C. Temperatures during the Tuesday through Friday period will progressively get colder across western and central NM and gradually cooler across eastern NM due to downsloping effects counteracting the lowering heights.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail. High and mid level clouds will increase from west to east this afternoon into the evening. Less high level clouds across eastern NM overnight into Monday morning with another batch of mid and high level clouds moving into western and central NM. Finally, breezy south-southwest winds across the eastern plains and highlands, including KTCC, this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK...

The first of a series of disturbances approaching from the west will allow south winds to increase on Monday. This combined with relative humidity values in the low teens will result in critical fire weather conditions across parts of northeast New Mexico Monday afternoon. Much stronger to damaging southwest to west winds will impact New Mexico on Tuesday as the disturbance moves through the region with critical fire weather over a larger area of eastern NM. Potential for peak wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph with minimum humidity values of 15 to 30% will allow for rapid fire spread among fine fuels. Winds remain pretty gusty on Wednesday, albeit a little weaker than Tuesday as a second disturbance approaches the state. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph combined with lower minimum relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent will result in the potential for rapid fire spread among fine fuels across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern highlands and plains. Gusty west winds similar to Wednesday continue on Thursday behind the second disturbance and ahead of a third disturbance. These gusty winds with minimum relative humidity values slightly higher at around 15 to 20% across the eastern plains will result in another day of potential rapid fire spread among fine fuels across this part of the state. West winds look to ramp up once again on Friday as the third disturbance moves through the state. Minimum relative humidity values stay steady at around 15 percent across the eastern plains resulting in another potential day of critical fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread among fine fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 34 62 37 47 / 0 5 50 90 Dulce........................... 23 61 27 41 / 0 5 40 100 Cuba............................ 28 59 31 42 / 0 0 5 70 Gallup.......................... 21 61 28 42 / 0 0 50 90 El Morro........................ 29 61 32 40 / 0 0 20 80 Grants.......................... 24 66 30 45 / 0 0 10 70 Quemado......................... 31 62 34 44 / 0 0 10 80 Magdalena....................... 36 66 41 51 / 0 0 5 30 Datil........................... 31 63 36 44 / 0 0 10 50 Reserve......................... 27 65 32 45 / 0 0 50 90 Glenwood........................ 31 69 34 49 / 0 0 40 90 Chama........................... 25 53 24 35 / 0 5 30 90 Los Alamos...................... 33 58 38 46 / 0 0 10 70 Pecos........................... 31 61 35 47 / 0 0 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 32 41 / 0 0 10 70 Red River....................... 28 49 27 34 / 0 0 20 60 Angel Fire...................... 21 57 24 40 / 0 0 10 60 Taos............................ 25 61 33 45 / 0 0 10 60 Mora............................ 31 66 34 48 / 0 0 5 40 Espanola........................ 28 65 37 52 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Fe........................ 35 59 38 47 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 61 37 50 / 0 0 5 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 66 45 54 / 0 0 0 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 36 67 42 56 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 33 69 41 58 / 0 0 0 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 66 42 55 / 0 0 5 30 Belen........................... 29 70 40 59 / 0 0 0 20 Bernalillo...................... 35 68 42 57 / 0 0 5 40 Bosque Farms.................... 30 70 40 58 / 0 0 0 20 Corrales........................ 34 68 41 56 / 0 0 5 30 Los Lunas....................... 31 69 41 59 / 0 0 0 20 Placitas........................ 37 64 43 53 / 0 0 5 40 Rio Rancho...................... 35 66 41 56 / 0 0 5 30 Socorro......................... 34 73 45 62 / 0 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 61 40 50 / 0 0 5 70 Tijeras......................... 36 62 41 51 / 0 0 5 60 Edgewood........................ 31 65 40 53 / 0 0 5 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 67 37 55 / 0 0 5 30 Clines Corners.................. 32 63 38 50 / 0 0 5 30 Mountainair..................... 33 64 40 55 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 33 65 41 57 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 37 68 45 58 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 41 64 42 52 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 31 69 37 54 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 27 70 34 54 / 0 0 0 10 Springer........................ 24 76 37 57 / 0 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 33 68 40 53 / 0 0 5 20 Clayton......................... 38 75 48 65 / 0 0 5 0 Roy............................. 29 74 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 36 80 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 34 77 47 62 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 38 81 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 77 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 36 78 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 76 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 36 78 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 36 74 44 63 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ212>215-223-226>237-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ104-123-126.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for NMZ123.