textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars this weekend.

- Scattered storms today will favor the central mountain chain eastward. Damaging outflow wind gusts may accompany a few storms. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations through Saturday, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 116 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Showers with embedded storms are developing tonight along a boundary that is draped across the eastern plains. The intensity of convection is on the low side, but there is a non-zero chance of some very localized flash flooding with storms that are riding along this boundary and moving over the same exact locations. Southeast to east winds will continue to advect sfc moisture westward today, into the Rio Grande Valley where dewpoints will surge into the lower 50s by the early morning hours. However, this shallow moisture will mix out in the afternoon, keeping storm coverage to a minimum along and west of the RGV. The upper-high will migrate northward into eastern Utah today as well, with northerly steering flow over New Mexico. Initiation of storms in the early afternoon will favor the peaks of the central mountain chain so they may become terrain-tied, slowly moving southward through the afternoon. This is concerning for the Ruidoso area since storms could repeatedly re-generate over the South Fork burn scar. The RRFS Local Probability Matched Mean (LMPP) shows a bullseye of nearly 3" over Sierra Blanca peak, but keeps the heaviest rainfall just off the sensitive burn scars. Hi-res models are showing storms clustering together in the highlands and plains east of the central mountain chain during the late afternoon and evening and there should be just enough shear to maintain this cluster as it pushes southeastward and accelerates downhill. Damaging outflow wind gusts will be a concern with this feature, including the Roswell area between roughly 8PM and 11PM.

Storms along the central mountain chain will send outflow boundaries westward in the evening and overnight, increasing sfc humidities. At the same time, flow aloft will shift around to the east, helping to advect more mid-level moisture and bring PWATs up to around 120% of normal. This will set the stage for a more active day Sunday with scattered showers and storms areawide. The influx of moisture along with increased cloud cover will help to drop temps a few degrees Sunday afternoon, keeping the major heat risk at bay, even across the Northwest Plateau.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 116 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

An active monsoon pattern is in store for next week. The upper-high will migrate into the Midwest on Monday with easterly flow remaining entrenched over New Mexico. Moisture will be most plentiful across the southern half of New Mexico where PWATs will be slightly above normal. A dry airmass on the west side of the upper-high will attempt to rotate in northeast NM, keeping convection to a minimum here. Easterly shortwaves throughout the week will enhance convection and the timing/location of these smaller features are poorly resolved by global models at this point.

An inverted trough will move west across the southern plains mid- next week, reaching the southern Rockies around Thursday. The forcing and moisture this easterly wave brings will help to further enhance convection and could be the first monsoonal surge of the season. Looking at global ensembles, long-term guidance is in good agreement that there will be a feature, but exactly where it sets up is uncertain. The GEFS brings this wave right into New Mexico and favors a wetter pattern whereas the EPS and GEPS keep it further south, keeping most of the deeper moisture south of New Mexico.

The influx of moisture will keep temps near to slightly below seasonal averages most of next week, with highs generally in the upper 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through the night in the eastern plains, with dry conditions elsewhere. Gusty gap winds from thunderstorm outflows will impact both KABQ and KSAF between roughly 08Z and 12Z, but winds should remain just below the AWW threshold (35 knots).

Scattered storms will develop along the central mtn chain Saturday afternoon between 18Z and 20Z, moving southeast through the afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorm outflow winds from the southeast/east will impact sites along the RGV and eventually western NM by the late evening hours tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Dry and hot conditions will be present across northwest NM again today, but winds will remain light through much of the day. Outflow boundaries from storms Friday have pushed moisture westward overnight, helping to create better overnight RH recoveries for the eastern half of the state.

Scattered storms this afternoon will favor the central mountain chain eastward and the boundaries they create will continue to push moisture westward overnight. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will not just be a concern near storms as some boundaries could travel hundreds of miles. An active monsoon pattern will commence Sunday and continue through next week. The upper-level high will remain off to the northeast, placing moist easterly flow over New Mexico. Scattered showers and storms each afternoon will favor the high terrain of central and southern NM, with the potential for more robust surges of moisture later in the week. Above normal temps this weekend will drop to near to slightly below seasonal normals next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 69 99 67 95 / 0 10 20 20 Dulce........................... 52 95 51 92 / 5 20 30 30 Cuba............................ 59 89 57 86 / 5 40 20 30 Gallup.......................... 59 92 56 90 / 0 30 30 10 El Morro........................ 60 88 57 85 / 0 20 30 10 Grants.......................... 60 92 58 88 / 0 20 20 10 Quemado......................... 61 88 58 86 / 5 30 30 20 Magdalena....................... 65 87 62 85 / 5 20 20 10 Datil........................... 61 84 59 82 / 10 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 56 92 55 89 / 10 50 40 60 Glenwood........................ 59 94 57 91 / 20 60 50 70 Chama........................... 50 86 49 84 / 10 20 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 64 87 63 85 / 5 30 20 20 Pecos........................... 56 85 55 84 / 10 40 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 86 54 85 / 5 30 20 40 Red River....................... 47 76 46 76 / 5 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 42 79 42 79 / 10 40 30 40 Taos............................ 52 88 51 87 / 5 30 20 40 Mora............................ 53 82 52 81 / 10 40 30 30 Espanola........................ 62 94 60 92 / 5 30 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 62 87 61 85 / 5 50 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 90 59 89 / 5 40 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 67 92 / 5 30 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 95 64 93 / 5 30 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 97 64 95 / 5 20 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 96 67 94 / 5 20 20 10 Belen........................... 64 96 63 95 / 5 20 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 66 97 65 95 / 5 30 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 62 96 61 94 / 5 20 20 10 Corrales........................ 66 97 65 95 / 5 30 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 64 96 63 94 / 5 20 20 10 Placitas........................ 67 92 66 91 / 5 30 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 96 66 94 / 5 20 20 10 Socorro......................... 70 98 68 96 / 5 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 88 60 86 / 10 40 20 10 Tijeras......................... 61 89 60 88 / 10 30 20 10 Edgewood........................ 57 89 56 88 / 10 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 90 53 88 / 20 30 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 55 84 55 82 / 40 30 20 10 Mountainair..................... 57 88 56 87 / 20 30 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 59 86 57 85 / 20 30 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 64 90 62 87 / 20 30 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 58 81 56 78 / 20 30 20 50 Capulin......................... 53 82 53 82 / 20 20 20 0 Raton........................... 53 87 53 87 / 20 30 20 0 Springer........................ 54 88 55 87 / 20 30 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 55 84 55 83 / 20 30 30 10 Clayton......................... 61 90 61 89 / 20 20 20 0 Roy............................. 59 85 59 84 / 50 30 20 0 Conchas......................... 63 93 63 92 / 40 30 30 10 Santa Rosa...................... 62 88 61 87 / 60 30 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 65 93 64 92 / 40 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 65 92 64 90 / 30 20 20 20 Portales........................ 65 93 64 90 / 30 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 65 92 64 90 / 40 20 20 20 Roswell......................... 69 94 66 90 / 50 20 40 30 Picacho......................... 63 89 60 85 / 30 20 40 40 Elk............................. 59 86 57 82 / 20 30 40 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for NMZ226.