textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mainly along and near the high terrain. - Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper level high pressure will be building more squarely over the southern high plains today while a vigorous low moves farther inland over OR and WA. This will allow high level moisture from Hurricane Marie to stream northeastward into southern CA, AZ, UT, and portions of western NM. This will cause storms to expand westward this afternoon, mainly over the southwestern to west central mountains. Meanwhile, areas that observed convection yesterday (along and east of the central mountain chain) will have another similar shot today. Overall, by late afternoon PWATs will generally range from about 0.7 to 1.3 inch with the northern mountains hosting the lower values, and the eastern plains the highest. Storms will move sluggishly again today, especially over east central NM where a potential weak centroid of the high might become established. Upper flow aloft will be much stronger toward the Four Corners (500 kt at 20-25 kt) due to the Pacific Northwest low, and some weak jet dynamics and divergence will be present, but this will likely not be enough to spread much convection into northwestern NM today. Temperatures will run 3 to 10 degrees above normal today with the eastern plains seeing the biggest departures from average. A few CAMs show some sparse showers and weaker storm activity surviving through this evening into the early morning hours Monday, mainly in western to central zones.

The high is modeled to nudge eastward over eastern OK and surrounding states on Monday while the Pacific Northwest low moves into MT, followed by a trailing low. This will keep some south southwest winds aloft over much of NM, allowing PWATs and moisture to turn a bit more homogeneous. A theta-E minimum in the eastern plains may limit airmass storms Monday afternoon, pushing the focus to areas along and west of the central mountain chain. Slow storm motions would continue in the southern half of the state, but cells would pick up the pace in the northern half as the subtropical jet feeds north of the Four Corners and ahead of the MT low. In fact, enough speed shear would be present to provide a severe component to storms in northwestern to north central NM Monday, however the updraft strengths may not be enough to prevent cells just getting torn apart. The faster motions will reduce the locally heavy rainfall in northern zones, but an isolated threat will still exist farther south. More clouds, showers, and storms in western to northern zones will reduce temperatures closer to normal while the plains stay a few to several degrees above average.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The upper high builds farther east and elongates west-to-east through Tuesday. Moisture profiles are not modeled to alter much, but winds aloft will reduce slightly. This will keep a theta-E ridge stretching from the southwestern mountains northeastward to the northern peaks of NM, invoking a fairly climatological distribution of slower moving afternoon storms.

The high elongates more across the southern states on Wednesday, now shown to build farther west than previous model runs. This could disrupt moisture over NM, introducing a slight drying while pressure heights rise. Western and northern mountain ranges are still modeled to initiate slow-moving cells with a stalled, weak backdoor front being a fly in the ointment for far northeastern NM where convergence and upslope might provide a local enhancement to convection.

Interestingly into Thursday the high skips westward into the desert southwest states with heights reducing notably. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean indicate some drying into NM from the northwest, but other deterministic and ensembles keep storms firing over the western and northern mountains while expanding down the central mountain chain. This trend continues into Friday and Saturday, as the GFS/GEFS allow drier westerlies to sag southward into NM. The largest ensemble cluster favors higher heights over NM, suggesting the GFS/GEFS is more of an outlier, but overall precipitation signals are still quite noisy with only the high terrain areas standing out as being more prone to storms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

By this afternoon, moisture and instability for storms will persist along and east of the central mountain chain, but will also expand over more of the southwestern to west central mountains in the afternoon. A few isolated storms will struggle to develop toward the Jemez and Tusas as well. Storms will be slow- moving, leading to heavy downpours which will reduce ceilings and visibility temporarily. Small hail, lots of lightning, and gusty downburst winds to 45 kt will also accompany stronger storms. Storms will have a hard time moving and redeveloping into the middle to lower Rio Grande valley through the early evening with only a few showers and weaker storms surviving through the late overnight hours into Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The monsoon plume of moisture is forecast to widen slightly and shift westward today. This will place the southwestern, west central, and central mountains in favorable locations for thunderstorms this afternoon with a few also struggling to initiate over the eastern plains. A few will then be able to regenerate into the middle Rio Grande valley and other nearby lowlands tonight. The deepest moisture and instability will stretch from the southwestern to northern mountains of NM on both Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will abruptly shift back to the west on Wednesday with storms favoring the western and northern mountains before expanding back to the central mountain chain Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Storm movement will be slow today, picking up on Monday, only to turn much more sluggish for the remainder of the week. Slow-moving storms will be capable of significant downpours, but these will still not be very widespread. Prevailing winds are not expected to create any fire weather concerns, but rather brief and localized outflows will be more problematic, creating strong and erratic gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 89 63 85 59 / 0 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 49 85 49 / 0 10 10 10 Cuba............................ 86 57 82 56 / 0 30 30 30 Gallup.......................... 88 56 83 52 / 0 20 10 10 El Morro........................ 84 54 81 52 / 20 30 40 30 Grants.......................... 87 57 84 55 / 10 30 60 40 Quemado......................... 84 57 81 56 / 40 30 70 50 Magdalena....................... 84 61 82 60 / 20 50 40 40 Datil........................... 81 57 79 56 / 40 40 60 50 Reserve......................... 89 57 86 57 / 40 40 60 40 Glenwood........................ 95 62 93 61 / 30 40 50 40 Chama........................... 82 51 78 51 / 0 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 84 60 81 59 / 0 30 40 30 Pecos........................... 85 56 83 56 / 20 40 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 56 80 55 / 0 5 20 5 Red River....................... 79 48 75 47 / 0 10 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 80 42 77 41 / 10 10 20 5 Taos............................ 87 54 83 53 / 0 10 20 10 Mora............................ 82 54 82 53 / 30 20 40 20 Espanola........................ 91 61 87 61 / 0 20 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 86 59 83 59 / 5 40 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 61 86 60 / 0 40 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 65 88 64 / 10 30 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 66 88 66 / 10 30 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 66 90 65 / 5 30 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 68 89 66 / 0 30 20 30 Belen........................... 94 64 91 63 / 10 30 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 93 66 89 65 / 5 30 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 93 63 90 63 / 10 30 20 30 Corrales........................ 94 67 90 66 / 5 30 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 94 65 90 64 / 5 30 20 30 Placitas........................ 89 64 86 62 / 10 30 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 92 67 88 66 / 0 30 30 30 Socorro......................... 94 68 92 68 / 10 30 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 81 58 / 20 30 20 40 Tijeras......................... 87 62 84 61 / 20 30 20 30 Edgewood........................ 88 58 85 57 / 20 30 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 56 88 55 / 20 30 30 40 Clines Corners.................. 86 58 84 58 / 30 20 30 40 Mountainair..................... 86 58 84 57 / 50 30 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 87 58 85 58 / 50 20 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 88 62 87 63 / 50 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 80 56 80 56 / 50 10 20 10 Capulin......................... 84 58 84 58 / 20 20 10 0 Raton........................... 88 56 88 55 / 20 10 10 5 Springer........................ 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 85 56 84 56 / 30 30 30 20 Clayton......................... 91 65 91 67 / 20 20 0 0 Roy............................. 88 60 87 61 / 20 30 0 0 Conchas......................... 96 66 95 67 / 20 30 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 92 65 91 66 / 20 20 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 96 68 95 69 / 20 20 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 66 95 67 / 20 20 0 0 Portales........................ 95 67 95 68 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 96 67 94 68 / 10 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 98 69 97 70 / 0 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 90 60 90 61 / 10 10 0 0 Elk............................. 87 57 86 57 / 20 5 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.