textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 427 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Well above average temperatures will persist through Wednesday with the warmest temperatures this afternoon, when a few new record high temperatures are expected.

- Strong crosswinds up to 50-55 mph will impact north-to-south oriented roads across the central highlands and east central plains on Monday from late morning through the afternoon

- Notably colder, windy, and unsettled conditions are forecast during mid-to-late week with lowering snow levels. We have low to moderate confidence (30-50%) in the development of accumulating snow and winter driving conditions across western north central New Mexico Thursday and Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1036 AM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft will be the rule through Monday as a west coast trough/low dives south and the jet stream shifts over the Desert SW, Four Corners and southern Rockies. In the meantime, gusty downslope winds across east central and northeast NM this afternoon will help boost temperatures up to near daily record highs at a few locales. Even stronger westerly winds will develop across the highlands early Monday and then spread east to include the eastern plains by afternoon with daytime mixing. Forecast winds aloft and 12Z MOS guidance are supportive of advisory speeds at KCQC Monday, so will issue an advisory for the Central Highlands with surrounding areas falling short of threshold. Difficult crosswinds are expected Monday along north to south oriented roadways in central NM, such as US285. High temperatures on Monday will be well above average and approach daily records at a couple eastern plains locales, due partially to stronger downslope winds.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1036 AM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Winds aloft relax some on Tuesday with a slight increase in pressure heights as the west coast trough closes off an upper low offshore of SoCal. Above average temperatures will persist Tuesday, especially across the eastern plains due to downslope winds. Pacific moisture advection will be the rule from Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low turns east over the Baja Peninsula, then fills and accelerates northeast across northern MX into west TX. At the same time, the polar jet is forecast to dive southeast from the Pacific NW toward the Desert SW and southern Rockies, bringing a strong cold front Thursday night into Friday. The Wednesday night through Friday period is looking more impactful, with the 12Z medium range models trending colder and more amplified as the polar jet stream carves out a trough over the southern Rockies and northern NM Thu night/Fri. 700mb temperatures are forecast to drop to between -8C and -12C across much of northern and western NM by Friday morning. Lowering snow levels Thursday night, especially across northern NM, could bring difficult winter driving conditions down into the lower elevations. The greatest potential for winter impacts at the lower elevations will be on Friday across northeast NM as the ejecting upper level trough/low interacts with the backdoor segment of the cold front. Notably colder temperatures will prevail Friday behind the cold front and linger into Saturday, bringing a winter-feel for a change. The forecast for the weekend involves a developing Rex block over the southwest US and increasing pressure heights over NM, bringing a warming trend with fair weather conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 427 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

A shield of high clouds has enveloped the southern half of the the state and will slowly drift south through the night. An incoming trough will approach the area overnight, with cigs lowering across the western third of the area. Most areas will remain VFR, but there is a moderate chance (30-60%) of a few hours of MVFR to IFR conditions at KGUP, with slightly lower chances at KFMN. Winds will increase after 18Z tomorrow, particularly in eastern NM where gusts of 25 to 35 kts will be commonplace.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 AM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. However, gusty westerly winds and low humidity will bring a few hours of near-critical fire weather conditions to the east central and northeast plains on Monday. Expect similar conditions on Tuesday, with continued low humidity but with lower wind speeds. Pacific moisture advection on Wednesday into Thursday will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation as two troughs impact the region, one from near the Baja Peninsula and a colder trough from the Pacific NW. Windy conditions are forecast Thursday both ahead of and behind a strong cold front. Windy, colder and unsettled conditions will persist into Friday before mellowing out over the weekend with a warming trend. Vent rates will be good to excellent toward the end of the week, but then fall and become mostly poor over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 31 52 29 50 / 0 20 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 46 21 49 / 0 40 10 0 Cuba............................ 26 47 24 48 / 0 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 25 50 20 49 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 48 25 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 22 52 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 26 52 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 33 55 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 29 52 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 24 57 21 58 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 28 60 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 40 20 42 / 0 20 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 31 49 28 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 31 51 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 46 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 26 38 20 39 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 44 17 44 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 50 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 53 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 24 55 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 51 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 53 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 54 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 31 56 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 29 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 25 60 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 32 57 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 25 59 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 31 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 27 59 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 35 54 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 32 57 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 31 62 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 50 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 32 52 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 53 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 55 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 30 52 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 31 55 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 34 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 39 56 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 28 59 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 26 60 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 62 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 31 58 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 38 67 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 30 65 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 34 71 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 39 72 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 39 69 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 71 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 35 69 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 72 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 40 69 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 38 66 32 67 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for NMZ223.