textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1047 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over more of northern and central New Mexico early next week. Strong and erratic downburst wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with the stronger cells.

- The risk of burn scar flash flooding will trend up beginning Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A quiet and mostly clear early July night as a weak trough moves across the Four Corners and central Rockies. For today, the upper high over the south central and eastern U.S. begins to expand westward with a new developing centroid over south central NM. Very dry westerly flow continues across much of northern and central NM in the wake of the departing weak trough across the central Rockies. Some breezy winds across north central and northeast NM due to the development of another surface lee trough. However, winds will not be as strong as Thursday. Higher moisture, indicated by PWATs around 0.6 to 0.9 inches, will linger across south central and southeast NM resulting in the development of isolated high based showers and storms across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic wind gusts with little to no rainfall reaching the surface (outside of the localized heavier cores) due to dewpoint depressions of 40 to 50 degrees. High temperatures today will be right around to slightly above average for early July. Any shower and thunderstorm activity should taper off around sunset due to the loss of daytime heating.

A seasonably to slightly above average hot Independence Day is expected across the Land of Enchantment with a 593 to 594 dam 500 mb monsoon high overhead. The westerlies retreating north will allow subtropical moisture to move north into the state with PWATS increasing to around 0.3 to 0.5 inch across northern and central NM and around 0.6 to 0.9 inches across southern and eastern NM. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon and early evening hours across the Sacramento Mountains and eastern plains before tapering off late evening during firework shows due to the loss of daytime heating. High end QPF amounts from potential thunderstorms in the Ruidoso area look to be around 0.5 inches due to the somewhat fairly dry low levels as indicated by dewpoints in the low 40s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

An outflow boundary from a forecasted MCS over the central Great Plains the night of the 4th of July will help bring higher moisture to areas along and east of the central mountain chain Sunday morning. This higher moisture along with weak troughing over southern CA and AZ will help result in the development of wetter showers and thunderstorms across the central mountain chain midday before moving into nearby lower elevations during the mid afternoon and evening hours. Some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity across east central NM late Sunday evening before clearing skies early Monday. Next week will feel exactly like early July. The monsoon high will be pretty much be overhead Monday and Tuesday, shifting west of the state over the southern Great Basin during the latter half of the work week, before strengthening and moving east over the central Rockies next weekend. PWATs around 0.7 to 1 inch will help result in diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity each and every day, first favoring the higher terrain midday before moving into nearby lower elevations later in the afternoon and evening hours. Flash flooding will be a concern for area burn scars (i.e. Ruidoso), low lying, and poor drainage areas as is typical with the monsoon. Showers and storms across west central and northwest NM will be drier in nature due to the drier low levels with erratic wind gusts, some patchy blowing dust, and potential isolated dry lightning strikes which could lead to more fire starts. High temperatures before the storms will be seasonably hot in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower elevations early next week heating up to low 90s to around 100 due to increasing upper level heights.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today except near the Sacaton fire in southwest NM where low visibility due to smoke is expected over the next 24 hours. Smoke will travel northeastward toward KONM and KBRG, but will mainly be above the surface at these locations. Otherwise, a few storms are expected across the south central mountains this afternoon where cu are already bubbling. These storms will be capable of strong and erratic wind gusts through early evening. Outside of these two areas, localized breezy southwest winds can be expected through early evening. It's possible smoke from the Pocket fire near Sedona, AZ could travel over KGUP late tonight, but would also remain aloft.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across northern NM due to a long period of single digit relative humidity values combined with breezy west to south-southwest winds. Smoke from fires in Arizona and western New Mexico resulting in some poorer air quality across central New Mexico. Locally elevated fire weather conditions across west central and northeast NM Independence Day due to another day of a long period of single digit relative humidity values combined with some patchy areas of breezy winds. Higher moisture moves in with the monsoon high generally overhead next week resulting in the end of near critical to critical fire weather conditions and better shower and thunderstorm chances, especially across higher terrain areas. Showers and storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across central and eastern NM. Showers and storms across west central and northwest NM will be on the drier side with gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning strikes being the bigger threat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 92 51 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 43 91 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 50 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 89 43 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 51 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 47 91 54 / 0 0 5 5 Quemado......................... 89 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 91 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 88 55 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 93 49 93 55 / 0 0 5 0 Glenwood........................ 96 51 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 83 45 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 54 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 50 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 77 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 81 29 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 88 47 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 88 50 88 54 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 96 57 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 89 59 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 65 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 64 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 60 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 98 58 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 61 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 97 57 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 59 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 97 57 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 92 64 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 61 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 100 66 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 62 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 91 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 48 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 89 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 92 58 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 90 60 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 95 66 / 5 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 87 60 87 61 / 20 5 40 5 Capulin......................... 90 57 88 53 / 0 0 0 30 Raton........................... 95 54 93 54 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 96 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 91 54 92 55 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 98 65 95 62 / 0 0 5 30 Roy............................. 94 62 94 59 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 100 67 101 65 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 97 65 97 64 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 101 71 102 67 / 0 0 0 30 Clovis.......................... 97 68 99 67 / 0 0 20 30 Portales........................ 98 69 100 68 / 5 0 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 99 69 100 67 / 0 0 10 10 Roswell......................... 100 70 101 71 / 0 5 20 5 Picacho......................... 95 64 96 64 / 10 10 30 5 Elk............................. 92 61 93 62 / 30 10 40 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.