textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1254 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as well as the Ruidoso area burn scars where there will be a moderate risk of flash flooding each day.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1254 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning shows that the center of the monsoon high is located over the central Colorado with an inverted trough to the south straddling the US/Mexico border. Dry air is being pulled westward between the two and should limit convective activity this afternoon east of the central mountain chain. The 18Z sounding at ABQ shows a PWAT of 1.28" which actually breaks the previous daily record of 1.26". This is above what model guidance was previously showing and does suggest more widespread and robust convective activity than previously modeled. It will likely take hi- res models a few hours to latch onto this wetter trend as they ingest the most recent data. Moisture and instability are most abundant across the southwest where storms will continuously regenerate over the high terrain this afternoon into the evening hours. Storm motions of 10 to 20 mph to the west/southwest will help to limit the flash flood risk, although the RRFS LPMM does indicate the potential for localized areas of 1-3" in the far SW potion of the CWA. Models have been hinting at a secondary round of storms developing this evening between 8PM and 11PM over the western high terrain then moving into the Northwest Plateau during the overnight hours.

As the inverted trough makes its way northwest overnight, it could bring a few light showers to the southern portion of the CWA in the southwest mountains and lower RGV. An expansion of precipitation is forecast for the afternoon, but the brunt of rainfall will remain off to the west in Arizona. The SW high terrain will once again be the focus of showers and storms Tuesday, with much of the area forecast to receive at least 0.25" of rain. The probability of over 1" of rain is still quite low, with small pockets of 20%+ chances in the Gila, along the west slopes of the Sacramento mountains, and the high terrain just off to the west of Gallup. With the disturbance moving northward into the Four Corners region, showers will likely persist into the overnight hours in the western third of the state, albeit with lighter rainfall rates compared to the afternoon hours.

Temperatures the next couple of days will continue to be near to slightly below seasonal averages in western and central areas due to the extensive afternoon cloud coverage. Temperatures will begin to rise in the eastern plains, with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1254 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A drying trend will occur mid-week as the monsoon high re-centers itself over the TX Panhandle and eventually directly over central NM by late week. The best rain chances will be over western NM Wednesday, then over northern NM Thursday and Friday as the disturbance currently over southern NM rotates clockwise around the upper high. The ridge will amplify over the southern Rockies this weekend so moisture in place will continue to be recycled. Both the GEFS and ENS ensemble means suggest PWATs will be near to slightly above normal across most of New Mexico, which should be sufficient for at least scattered afternoon showers and storms. With the ridge overhead, storm motions will trend slower late week into the weekend, which will keep most storms over the mountains and increase the risk of burn scar flash flooding.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Scattered showers and storms will favor the western half of New Mexico today. Storms will move from east to west at around 10 to 20 knots. Coverage will increase through the afternoon, with mostly showers and a few storms lingering after 03Z along and west of the Cont. Divide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1254 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next seven days. Scattered showers and storms will focus over western NM each afternoon through Wednesday, shifting to northern NM Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances gradually trend higher over much of the region this weekend as the monsoon ridge centers itself over central NM. Temperatures will trend hotter mid to late week, with the hottest temperatures in the eastern plains where highs will be in the low 100s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 66 95 66 89 / 30 40 70 30 Dulce........................... 54 94 55 87 / 10 40 70 70 Cuba............................ 58 87 59 84 / 20 40 40 20 Gallup.......................... 56 85 56 83 / 40 70 50 70 El Morro........................ 56 82 57 80 / 30 50 40 70 Grants.......................... 58 86 59 84 / 20 30 30 70 Quemado......................... 57 80 57 81 / 70 70 50 70 Magdalena....................... 62 82 63 83 / 20 50 20 30 Datil........................... 57 77 58 79 / 50 70 30 60 Reserve......................... 55 84 55 85 / 50 90 50 60 Glenwood........................ 55 86 56 89 / 40 90 70 50 Chama........................... 53 87 53 81 / 5 20 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 64 87 64 84 / 5 30 30 30 Pecos........................... 56 87 57 85 / 5 5 20 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 87 57 84 / 0 5 10 40 Red River....................... 48 77 48 75 / 0 10 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 43 81 44 79 / 0 10 10 60 Taos............................ 56 90 56 86 / 0 10 10 50 Mora............................ 54 84 55 83 / 0 20 20 40 Espanola........................ 65 95 65 92 / 0 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 89 62 86 / 5 10 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 91 61 88 / 5 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 92 66 91 / 5 30 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 91 67 91 / 5 30 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 93 66 94 / 5 30 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 93 68 92 / 5 30 30 10 Belen........................... 65 91 64 93 / 5 30 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 95 67 92 / 10 40 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 63 91 63 93 / 5 30 20 5 Corrales........................ 67 95 67 93 / 10 30 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 63 91 63 93 / 5 30 20 5 Placitas........................ 66 91 66 88 / 5 40 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 67 94 67 92 / 10 30 30 10 Socorro......................... 68 92 69 94 / 10 30 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 86 61 85 / 5 30 30 40 Tijeras......................... 61 87 61 86 / 5 30 30 40 Edgewood........................ 58 89 58 88 / 5 20 20 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 90 54 90 / 5 20 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 85 57 85 / 5 10 20 20 Mountainair..................... 58 87 59 88 / 5 30 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 57 84 59 86 / 5 30 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 62 83 65 87 / 20 60 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 56 78 59 82 / 20 70 20 70 Capulin......................... 57 88 57 88 / 0 5 10 5 Raton........................... 56 92 56 92 / 0 10 10 5 Springer........................ 57 93 58 93 / 0 10 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 56 87 57 87 / 0 10 10 20 Clayton......................... 65 97 65 98 / 0 0 20 0 Roy............................. 62 91 63 91 / 0 0 20 5 Conchas......................... 66 97 67 99 / 0 0 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 92 65 94 / 0 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 67 98 69 100 / 0 0 20 0 Clovis.......................... 66 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 96 68 99 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 69 97 71 100 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 89 65 93 / 5 30 5 20 Elk............................. 58 85 61 89 / 10 40 5 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.