textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning.

- Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A surface high will settle over eastern NM tonight, winds will relax and the high clouds across southeast NM will decrease. Additionally, following last night's backdoor cold front, much drier air has move into the region. This will set up excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight and a widespread freeze is expected. A few locations dropped below freezing last night, namely Las Vegas, Moriarty and Estancia, thus the growing season has ended in those locations and the Freeze Watch was cancelled. Otherwise, the first freeze of the season is still expected for much of central and eastern NM, as well as portions of the Northwest Plateau. Have also added all of Chaves County into the Freeze Warning. A few caveats: Areas around Farmington are not expected to freeze, but areas south of Burnham are. In the Albuquerque Metro, the Sunport and northeast heights are not expected to freeze, but areas around Belen, Los Lunas, the ABQ Valley and near KAEG are expected to freeze. Similarly, KROW may not freeze, but portions of northeast Chaves County are more likely to drop below freezing.

A deepening lee side surface trough will develop on Saturday, and the resultant southerly winds will begin the warming trend for eastern NM. A few breezes will be noted across northeast NM, but otherwise, it should be a quiet day with temperatures near to below normal. Saturday night's low temps will trend warmer as well. Given the growing season will likely end for many tonight, and warmer temps forecast, no additional Freeze Watches have been issued.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The upper low off the west coast of the northern Baja Peninsula will slowly fill and eject northeastward on Sunday and Sunday night. Pacific moisture will advect into NM ahead of the system allowing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across western NM as soon as Sunday morning. What is left of the system will cross the Four Corners on Monday, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should spread eastward to at least the Central Mtn Chain. Precipitation amounts will be light both Sunday and Monday.

All eyes will then be on an upper level low diving southward along the west coast and the continued moisture advection into NM ahead of it. Precipitation coverage should gradually increase Tuesday and Wednesday, but precipitation coverage is currently expected to be greatest on Thursday and potentially through Friday as the system shifts eastward and large scale ascent increases over NM. PWATs will increase from around 0.6-0.75" on Sun/Mon to 0.8-1.0 by Thu. Snow levels will be high, thus snow is expected only for the highest peaks. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be common elsewhere.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will persist today behind last night's backdoor cold front. North to northeast winds with gusts around 25-30kt will prevail across eastern NM, while easterly winds with 20-30kt gusts will prevail elsewhere. High clouds across southeast NM will wane tonight, resulting in mostly clear skies areawide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Winds will decrease in speed tonight, then a widespread freeze is on tap Saturday morning. Cool but quiet conditions will be the rule Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast Sunday and Monday across central and western NM, with more widespread precipitation expected Tuesday through at least Thursday. Wetting rain is most likely to be spotty through at least Tuesday, but better chances for widespread wetting rainfall exists Wednesday and Thursday. Snow will be possible across the highest peaks.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 36 66 40 61 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 28 66 32 62 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 31 61 38 60 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 25 65 36 62 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 28 61 36 62 / 0 0 10 30 Grants.......................... 26 62 33 63 / 0 0 10 20 Quemado......................... 31 63 35 65 / 0 0 20 40 Magdalena....................... 29 58 38 61 / 0 0 5 10 Datil........................... 27 58 34 61 / 0 0 10 30 Reserve......................... 32 67 37 66 / 0 0 20 30 Glenwood........................ 34 68 43 68 / 0 0 20 30 Chama........................... 30 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 36 61 42 60 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 29 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 56 26 56 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 11 60 16 61 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 29 62 26 62 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 30 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 33 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 31 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 27 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 33 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 26 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 33 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 27 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 34 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 34 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 33 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 60 36 61 / 0 0 5 5 Tijeras......................... 29 62 38 63 / 0 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 25 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 63 26 66 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 26 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 26 60 33 62 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 26 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 27 56 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 67 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 31 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 28 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 62 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 33 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 30 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 59 35 70 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-217>220-223>225-228-230>241.