textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday, favoring central and eastern areas. High chances exist for widespread beneficial rainfall across eastern New Mexico. Some storms may become strong to severe across eastern NM, especially near the TX border.

- Strong west to southwest winds will return Sunday and peak on Monday and Tuesday. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Sunday and Monday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico, but fuels may not be receptive to fire spread due to rainfall from today and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

There are only minor changes to the latest short-term forecast and the key impacts remain consistent. Low level moisture is returning to eastern NM ahead of an approaching upper level trough along the CA coastline. Virga showers have developed between the Continental Divide and the central mt chain with wetter activity taking shape over eastern NM. Showers and storms will continue developing thru the evening while moving northeast around 20 mph. There is still a SPC 'Marginal Risk' area over northeast NM where the greater lift, moisture, and instability coincide. An approaching 55-65kt upper level speed max will help with larger-scale ascent by tonight and convection will consolidate over eastern NM into areas of rain with embedded storms thru early Saturday morning. The 12Z HREF shows PMM precip values of 0.50 to 0.75" between Santa Rosa, Tucumcari, and Clayton. Widespread low stratus and patchy fog are also possible over east-central and southeast NM. The latest NBM shows a 20-30% chance for ceilings below 1,000 ft. A few showers will still skirt the central mt chain as well but NBM QPF probabilities >0.20" are only 30-50%.

Drier air will push into western NM Saturday as a 70-80kt speed max slides northeast over central and eastern NM. Improving ascent with 25 to 40kt bulk shear, PWATs near 1", slight backing of low level winds, and greater surface-based instability will force another round of storms to develop along and east of the central mt chain Saturday afternoon. SPC has maintained the 'Slight Risk' area east of the Pecos River Valley with a 'Marginal Risk' westward into central NM. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50" are likely over eastern NM with locally greater than 0.75" possible. Storm motion will be swift toward the northeast around 30 mph. Farther west, a few high-based and gusty rain showers are still possible between the Continental Divide and the central mt chain.

Storms will exit eastern NM Saturday evening with clearing from west to east areawide overnight. West-southwest winds will remain a tad breezy, especially along the central mt chain all night. Low temps will trend cooler and actually close to normal for mid April.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Sunday still looks very dry with stronger southwest winds and increasing mid and high level clouds. 700-500mb layer winds are not overly impressive while surface low pressure deepens to near 997mb over eastern CO. NBM probs for wind gusts >50 mph are 20-40% in the northern high terrain so Wind Advisories are currently not expected.

Forecast confidence is still fairly low early next week as guidance continues to handle the next upper level trough differently each day. The latest rendition shows a tap of subtropical moisture moving out ahead of the trough by Monday with more widespread cloud cover and perhaps even some showers over central and western NM. Tuesday also looks cooler with a few more showers and light mountain snow possible across the north and west. It is more likely to be windy both days but 700-500mb winds are still not that impressive.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

East to west, scattered thunderstorm activity is trending down in strength across eastern NM. Localized IFR/MVFR conditions from blowing dust or heavy rain will accompany these thunderstorms thru the evening. A brief break in activity will likely only last an hour or two before a subsequent longer lasting round of showers with embedded thunderstorms spreads back across east-central NM tonight, spreading back over southeastern NM Saturday morning. This activity spreads over nearly all of eastern NM by Saturday afternoon.

Drier shower and isolated thunderstorm activity along the central mountain chain bringing bouts of blowing dust and low visibility will wane over the next hour or so. This may last the longest near KSAF however to 03Z or so. Winds will turn southeasterly to easterly in the Rio Grande Valley this evening, with southeasterly winds reaching as far as KFMN later tonight into Saturday morning. These winds increase as they veer back southwesterly by Saturday afternoon. A stray shower or isolated thunderstorm bringing erratic gusty winds cannot entirely be ruled out within the Rio Grande Valley Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Virga developing over central and western NM today will grow into high-based showers and isolated dry storms thru late afternoon with strong and erratic downburst wind gusts. Any dry lightning strikes may become a concern by Saturday and Sunday. Farther east, chances are higher for wetting rainfall thru Saturday with locally heavy rainfall from stronger storms. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50" are still likely over eastern NM with localized amounts over 1". Western NM will see increasing southwest winds and lower humidity by Saturday but a couple virga showers are still possible.

Sunday will be much drier areawide with breezy to locally strong southwest winds. Critical fire weather variables coincide across eastern NM for several hours Sunday but the wetting rainfall may help mitigate fire spread within "wetter" 1-hr and 10-hr fuels. Locally critical fire weather occurs for a few hours over central and western NM Sunday but coverage and duration do not warrant a Fire Weather Watch at this time.

By Monday and Tuesday, there are still concerns with the track of the next upper level trough and how much moisture and cooler air slides into the region. Despite the stronger winds over central and western NM, the most recent forecast continues trending away from critical fire weather with more rain showers and light mountain snow possible. Eastern NM does have the greater chance for several hours of critical fire weather Monday and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 72 40 70 / 20 40 10 0 Dulce........................... 36 67 29 66 / 50 70 20 5 Cuba............................ 43 67 35 67 / 60 60 50 10 Gallup.......................... 35 69 32 67 / 10 20 5 0 El Morro........................ 38 66 34 65 / 20 30 10 0 Grants.......................... 38 71 33 70 / 30 40 10 5 Quemado......................... 40 68 35 67 / 5 30 5 0 Magdalena....................... 47 70 41 71 / 30 30 20 0 Datil........................... 42 67 36 65 / 20 30 10 0 Reserve......................... 40 73 34 69 / 5 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 45 77 38 75 / 5 10 0 0 Chama........................... 36 59 29 59 / 60 80 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 46 66 41 65 / 60 80 50 10 Pecos........................... 43 65 37 66 / 70 70 60 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 62 35 62 / 60 70 40 5 Red River....................... 33 56 29 58 / 70 70 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 33 59 28 59 / 70 70 50 5 Taos............................ 40 67 31 66 / 70 70 50 5 Mora............................ 39 63 35 65 / 80 70 60 5 Espanola........................ 47 73 39 73 / 70 70 50 5 Santa Fe........................ 46 67 41 68 / 80 70 60 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 70 40 70 / 80 70 50 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 73 45 74 / 70 60 40 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 75 46 76 / 60 50 40 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 78 45 79 / 60 50 40 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 76 46 77 / 60 50 40 0 Belen........................... 50 78 43 79 / 50 40 30 5 Bernalillo...................... 51 76 46 77 / 60 50 40 5 Bosque Farms.................... 50 78 42 79 / 60 50 40 5 Corrales........................ 52 77 46 78 / 60 50 40 5 Los Lunas....................... 51 78 43 78 / 50 40 40 5 Placitas........................ 50 71 45 72 / 70 60 50 5 Rio Rancho...................... 51 76 46 77 / 60 50 40 5 Socorro......................... 53 79 46 81 / 40 30 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 67 41 67 / 70 60 50 5 Tijeras......................... 48 70 43 70 / 70 60 50 5 Edgewood........................ 45 71 40 71 / 70 60 50 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 72 38 73 / 80 60 50 5 Clines Corners.................. 44 67 40 68 / 70 70 50 5 Mountainair..................... 46 70 40 71 / 60 40 40 5 Gran Quivira.................... 47 69 42 70 / 60 50 40 5 Carrizozo....................... 51 71 49 72 / 60 60 30 5 Ruidoso......................... 46 64 45 65 / 70 60 30 5 Capulin......................... 44 63 38 67 / 70 60 30 5 Raton........................... 43 68 35 70 / 60 50 30 5 Springer........................ 45 69 38 73 / 70 60 40 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 65 39 69 / 80 70 40 5 Clayton......................... 47 69 48 76 / 90 70 40 5 Roy............................. 47 65 43 72 / 80 80 50 5 Conchas......................... 52 73 49 80 / 90 80 60 5 Santa Rosa...................... 51 71 47 76 / 80 80 50 5 Tucumcari....................... 53 74 51 83 / 80 80 60 5 Clovis.......................... 54 73 52 82 / 70 80 60 10 Portales........................ 55 73 51 83 / 70 80 60 10 Fort Sumner..................... 52 73 49 81 / 80 80 50 10 Roswell......................... 57 75 54 84 / 80 70 30 5 Picacho......................... 51 72 49 76 / 70 70 30 5 Elk............................. 48 70 46 75 / 70 70 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.