textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is occurring this morning.

- A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area today, creating strong north winds across eastern NM and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys by this evening.

- The first freeze of the season is forecast late tonight into Friday morning for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Even colder conditions are forecast Friday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the weakening upper low pulling northeast into northeast CO while leaving weak troughing in it's wake across the Four Corners region into central AZ. Cold air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage is resulting in the coldest night so far this season and the Freeze Warning for the upper RGV is on track. The forecast for today through Friday is mostly unchanged and involves a 2nd low closing off over AZ and then retrograding southwest to over the Baja Peninsula as a strong backdoor cold front races southwest across NM. Windy and notably colder conditions will follow behind the backdoor cold front later today/tonight. The existing Wind Advisory for northeast NM is supported well be the latest guidance, but have added Curry and Roosevelt Counties based on the latest guidance and with a slightly later start time based on the forecast timing of the frontal passage. A strong east canyon/gap wind is still forecast this evening for the middle/lower RGV, South Central Highlands and upper Tularosa Valley. The latest MOS guidance continues a downtrend in forecast speeds at KABQ, with only the GFS LAMP showing high wind warning-type speeds. That said, have upgraded the watch to a warning as there are moderate to high probabilities for gusts to 50kts or greater, especially closer the the mouth of the canyons. A Freeze Watch is still in effect for late Thursday night into Friday morning for the first freeze of the season for portions of northeast and east central NM. There is some forecast uncertainty with regard to temperatures early Friday morning due to winds being slow to decouple and the pressure gradient possibly holding on longer. Friday will definitely feel like fall, with high temperatures forecast to be 5-15 degrees below average. The east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys will be slow to diminish Friday, but will dip below warning criteria by mid morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Significant drying of the atmosphere is forecast across NM going into Saturday, with ridging aloft as the retrograding upper low pulls up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula and wraps moisture from Tropical Storm Simon into it's circulation. Near- ideal radiational cooling conditions Friday night into Saturday morning with a very dry airmass in place will bring an even colder night with a hard freeze forecast across much of the area. A Freeze Watch will be required for the east central/southeast plains and perhaps the middle RGV for Friday night as those forecast zones experience their 1st freeze of the season. The Baja low is forecast to fill and open up while lifting northeast as a shortwave trough from Sunday into Monday, bringing moisture and clouds to NM but with low chances for precipitation due to very weak forcing associated with the trough. All eyes turn to the west coast Tuesday as the jet stream dives south and brings a stronger upper low into SoCal by Wednesday. Moisture advection will be the rule across NM going into mid week, with increasing precipitation chances from mid through late week as the upper low swings east across the region. There are still some timing differences with regard to the upper low passage over the region late next week, but not as disparate as previous model cycles. Thursday looks to be the wettest day next week across NM, with 700mb temperatures supportive of snow across the mountain peaks.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. A strong backdoor will race southwest across the region today, bringing a wind shift and gusty conditions to central and eastern NM. A strong east canyon wind will develop early this evening at KABQ behind the cold front and result in gusts to between 40-50kts. An Airport Weather Warning will be required.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A strong backdoor cold front will race southwest across the area later today and tonight, bringing windy conditions and notably colder temperatures. Significant drying of the atmosphere is forecast Friday into Saturday and minimum humidity will plummet. Humidity will be back on the upswing Sunday into Monday as a weak Pacific low approaches from the southwest and brings tropical moisture to the region, but with low chances for wetting precipitation. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late next week with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 39 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 62 28 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 61 34 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 59 34 64 25 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 35 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 36 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 63 37 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 38 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 60 35 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 39 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 75 45 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 55 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 33 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 29 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 48 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 20 51 12 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 61 28 59 22 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 57 28 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 37 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 35 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 34 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 43 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 45 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 44 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 71 44 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 43 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 71 45 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 41 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 70 45 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 36 56 30 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 65 38 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 64 35 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 35 59 19 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 33 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 63 35 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 36 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 70 42 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 35 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 52 29 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 58 31 55 22 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 62 32 58 20 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 58 32 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 57 36 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 60 35 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 69 42 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 67 41 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 43 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 42 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 70 45 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 45 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 50 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 70 41 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 39 53 30 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for NMZ227- 228-230-231.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NMZ222- 223-228>230.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-220-224-225.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ216.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for NMZ235-236.