textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return for most areas on Thursday and for eastern New Mexico on Friday. Strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins.

- Temperatures will fall back near or below seasonal normals Friday and Saturday.

- Precipitation chances return near the Colorado border Friday with broader precipitation chances returning early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 110 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Modest Gulf moisture is advecting into eastern NM tonight and can't rule out low clouds affecting far east central NM by sunrise. However, the moisture intrusion will be short-lived. An approaching storm system combined with a deepening lee-side surface low will increase southwesterly winds areawide today, mixing out the low level moisture across eastern NM. By Thursday afternoon, mid level winds will increase to between 20 and 30kt. These values have continuously trended downward over the last several model runs, but this momentum is expected to mix down to the surface as mixing heights will be near the 75-90th percentile for this time of year. Additionally, the surface low over SE CO will deepen to between 993-995mb. Thus, a widespread breezy to windy day is in store. Temperatures will trend back upward across eastern NM thanks to the downslope component of the winds. A few locations will near records for the date, but should ultimately come up just shy.

The storm system is still poised to cross CO Thursday night through Friday. This sharp trough or weakly closed low will bring enough moisture with it to allow for isolated to scattered short- lived showers across far northern NM. Any accumulation will be minimal, though the highest elevations of the Tusas Mountains could see an inch or two of snow. Meanwhile, the Pacific cold front will sweep from west to east late Thursday night through Friday morning. In addition to falling temperatures, expect an increase in wind speeds along and behind the front. H7 winds increase to between 40 and 60kt by 12Z Friday along and just east of the Central Mtn Chain from the Sandia Mtns/KCQC southward. Mixing along the frontal boundary should bring some of this stronger momentum to the surface early Friday. Mountain wave activity may also continue through the mid morning hours in this area. Thus, would not be surprised to see erratic gusts to 50+ mph from KCQC, to Vaughn, across central and eastern Lincoln County and southwest Chaves County between the 10Z and 15Z timeframe. Thereafter, daytime mixing will bring stronger westerly winds to the remainder of the eastern plains through the afternoon with more gusts up to 50 mph likely. The NAM model has slowed the timing of the backdoor cold front and is now more consistent with other models, thus gusty westerly winds should prevail through the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 110 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

While westerly winds decrease Friday evening, the backdoor cold front will quickly press southward through eastern NM, then westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain by sunrise Saturday. Expect at least breezy conditions below gaps within the Rio Grande Valley as well as across eastern NM. Between the Pacific and backdoor frontal passages, high temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal for early March. Meanwhile at upper levels, the secondary trough will slide down the backside of the initial wave, close off and retrograde to the southwest Friday and Saturday. The upper low should set up just west of the Baja Sunday before beginning to eject eastward on Monday. Sunday should be quiet and mainly dry across NM with warming temperatures. Both Pacific and Gulf moisture will advect northward into NM by Monday, but there remains considerable uncertainty with regards to the track of the upper low once it ejects. The ECMWF keeps the low over northern Mexico, which keeps precipitation very limited across the ABQ CWA, but other models bring the low across southern NM increasing chances for precip. Regardless, the best chances for precipitation are on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the low will have shifted eastward and dry northwest flow will prevail over NM.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with periods of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds. Moderate probabilities exist for MVFR conditions in low stratus/fog near the TX border in east central NM early Thursday morning, but is expected to stay east of KROW. Gusty south-southwest winds will increase late Thursday afternoon, especially at KGUP where gusts to between 30-35kts are likely. Patches of blowing dust are possible near KABQ and KROW Thursday afternoon, but are not expected to drop below VFR at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Strong southwest winds and very low humidity values will prevail across northern and central NM this afternoon resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions areawide. However, ERCs are highest across eastern NM where significant fine fuel loading also exists. Thus, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for eastern NM, but care should still be taken with open flames and items that may cause sparks across western NM and the Rio Grande Valley. Generally, winds will be from the southwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Highest gusts are expected across northeast NM. Several hours of single digit humidity is forecast across portions of central and eastern NM. Winds will briefly decrease this evening, but a Pacific front crossing from west to east will bring erratic gusts for a few hours either side of sunrise Friday, especially across the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and the Central Highlands. Stronger westerly winds will then expand across all of eastern NM by Friday afternoon with daytime heating. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely with RH values falling below 15 percent. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Friday across eastern NM. Because temperatures will be falling below normal on Friday behind the Pacific front, the greatest concern for critical fire weather conditions is across the Northeast and East Central Plains where high temperatures will remain just above normal. Less winds and largely below normal temperatures will prevail for Saturday, though temperatures will bounce back upward on Sunday. Moisture will trend upward on Monday from south to north, with isolated to scattered light showers Monday and Tuesday. Cooler but drier conditions on tap for Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 31 49 25 / 5 30 20 0 Dulce........................... 60 25 44 15 / 5 40 50 5 Cuba............................ 61 26 44 21 / 0 20 30 0 Gallup.......................... 62 21 47 15 / 0 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 61 25 45 22 / 0 5 5 0 Grants.......................... 66 22 49 17 / 0 5 5 0 Quemado......................... 64 26 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 66 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 28 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 65 25 55 20 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 70 28 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 53 22 38 14 / 0 30 50 10 Los Alamos...................... 60 32 46 27 / 0 10 10 0 Pecos........................... 61 30 47 22 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 29 42 21 / 0 5 20 20 Red River....................... 48 25 33 15 / 0 5 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 54 19 39 9 / 0 5 20 10 Taos............................ 62 24 46 17 / 0 5 20 10 Mora............................ 61 28 46 18 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 67 29 53 21 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 34 48 27 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 32 51 24 / 0 5 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 40 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 37 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 35 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 37 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 32 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 37 56 30 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 73 32 59 25 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 70 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 33 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 38 53 31 / 0 5 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 69 37 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 37 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 35 48 28 / 0 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 36 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 66 34 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 30 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 65 31 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 66 33 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 66 35 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 70 41 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 65 40 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 65 30 50 17 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 70 26 52 17 / 0 0 10 20 Springer........................ 71 27 55 20 / 0 0 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 66 30 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 73 40 60 26 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 71 36 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 39 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 76 38 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 41 66 28 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 42 66 32 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 42 68 32 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 80 38 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 42 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 41 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 74 40 61 30 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.