textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- An unseasonably strong area of high pressure will influence the sensible weather through the weekend with widespread record high temperatures for mid-March. The main impact will be heat-related illness for individuals that are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling and/or hydration. The greatest threat appears to favor Saturday in east central and southeast New Mexico.

- A backdoor cold front will plunge through eastern New Mexico on Sunday, lowering high temperatures in its wake. This boundary is likely to push through the central mountains Sunday night, which will result in gusty canyon winds.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 132 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Gusty morning winds will diminish within a few hours of daybreak as the pressure gradient relaxes. By late afternoon, a remarkably strong bubble of high pressure will be located near Las Vegas, NV. Most guidance indicates 500 hPa heights will be around 595 dam. To put this into historical perspective, this would be higher than the median value noted during the climatological peak in late July. At the same time, very dry air will advect into the western half of NM with single digit dewpoints anticipated by afternoon. Highs will be 15 to 20 degrees above mid-March seasonal averages. With a dry air mass in place coupled with generally thin cirrus, expect efficient radiational cooling, although lows will remain above normal. Expect mid-slope overnight inversions as well.

Not a lot of change to the upr level pattern for Thursday with the centroid generally located near/north of Phoenix. Highs will nudge slightly warmer, resulting in records being shattered coupled with even drier air. It wouldn't be inconceivable to see a few negative dewpoint values over western NM during peak heating with dewpoint depressions approaching 85 or 90 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The historically strong upper high remains anchored near Phoenix, albeit a tad weaker. Regardless, readings will tick up just a tad with guidance suggesting the first 90-degree day in Albuquerque coming one day earlier than previously projected. The ridge will be shoved southward and weaken starting on Saturday compliments of a shortwave trough progressing its way through the PacNW/northern Rockies. The westerlies will increase along the northern periphery of the ridge, allowing for some afternoon gusts, primarily across northern NM. Compressional heating is likely to contribute to the warmest day in the forecast period along with long-standing high temperature records being obliterated.

Zonal flow is projected for Sunday with a potent but dry backdoor cold front plunging southward through the ern plains of NM. There are slight timing differences in the deterministic models with the arrival of the boundary, which is typical and difficult to resolve this far in advance. That said, shallow fronts are notoriously too slow in the guidance, so this will result in higher spread coupled with lower confidence in high temperatures across the ern plains. Gusty canyon winds will also be a threat for Sun night within the Rio Grande Valley.

Ensembles significantly diverge on Tuesday as it relates to the strength of the next trough over the eastern Pacific. This will likely have an influence on the amplitude of the upr level ridge that could rebuild over the western U.S.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Morning wind gusts have diminished at most locations with the exception of the traditional northerly drainage flow at KSAF. Expect afternoon wind gusts up to 25 kts at KFMN.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. That said, starting on Saturday and continuing through Tuesday, ensemble guidance suggests a low risk (10-30% joint probability) for critical fire weather conditions, with winds serving at the limiting factor areawide (and minRH on Monday across the eastern plains).

While the weather pattern will seem rather benign beneath a very strong ridge of high pressure, the next several days will serve as a significant drying pattern across NM. This will also impact the timber found in the mountainous regions given a notable lack of significant snowpack - in fact, historically low SWE for this time of year. The drying pattern will be remarkable for mid-March given 5-10 hours of single digit RH values this afternoon across western NM, becoming more widespread for Thursday and Friday with the number of hours ranging from 8-12 hours. Saturday will be the worst day with some parts of central NM ranging from 10-15 hours. Unfortunately, this will likely set the framework for an extended fire weather season throughout New Mexico.

A backdoor cold front on Sunday will bring limited relief to ern NM with minimum RH values remaining in the 15 to 20 percent range for Monday. A return to well above normal heat could materialize on Tuesday as the upper level shortwave moves east and the ridge potentially rebuilds over the Desert Southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 78 39 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 77 31 82 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 76 38 81 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 78 31 85 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 76 40 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 33 85 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 78 39 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 46 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 76 43 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 38 89 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 42 94 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 71 35 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 76 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 79 43 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 63 37 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 71 26 75 27 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 77 28 83 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 77 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 83 39 88 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 76 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 43 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 51 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 46 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 43 91 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 46 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 38 90 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 45 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 84 38 90 42 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 44 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 84 39 90 43 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 84 46 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 46 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 46 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 76 46 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 42 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 36 85 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 41 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 78 41 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 43 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 49 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 74 38 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 78 36 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 79 33 84 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 80 48 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 78 41 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 40 91 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 81 42 87 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 41 90 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 46 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 85 44 92 46 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 41 91 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 86 44 92 46 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 48 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 81 46 89 49 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.