textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1023 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Unsettled weather conditions with rain, snow, and bouts of strong winds are forecast Wednesday night through Friday with lowering snow levels. Confidence is increasing (50-70%) in the development of accumulating snow and winter driving conditions across high terrain areas and northern New Mexico, especially Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

- The coldest air so far this season will arrive Friday into Friday night with low temperatures dropping into the single digits to mid teens. These cold temperatures will impact those without adequate housing or heating.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

It's a splendid early January day across the Land of Enchantment with temperatures slightly above average, patches of high clouds and light winds for most. Mid to high level clouds will increase in coverage tonight into Wednesday as a closed low approaches northern Baja California. Increasing 700 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts across much of northeast and east central NM will result in a breezy Wednesday for this part of the state. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average across western and central NM with eastern plains locales 12 to 16 degrees above average due to the downslope westerly winds. Precipitation will move into southwest NM late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as the upper low moves east and begins to open up over Sonora, Mexico.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

The weakening upper low over Sonora, Mexico (system #1) Wednesday evening will move across New Mexico as an open wave trough Wednesday night through midday Thursday morning. As it does so an area of lower elevation rain and mountain snow will move across the forecast area. Snow levels during this period will be around 7,000 to 7,500 feet with 700 mb temperatures around -3 to -5 deg C. Any noteworthy snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches from system #1 will be limited to the mountain peaks above any population areas and commerce routes, so advisories will likely not be needed from this first system. However, areas like U.S. 60, I-40 and U.S. 550 at the Continental Divide and I-25 at Glorieta Pass could see a slick Thursday morning commute due to snowfall accumulations of around an inch. Perturbed westerly flow behind system #1 and a deepening upper level trough over the Great Basin (system #2) will keep orographic snow showers going across the west slopes of the western and central mountains during the day Thursday. Thursday will be a colder day by around 10 to 15 degrees compared to Wednesday across western and central NM. Still relatively mild (5 to 10 degrees above average) across eastern NM Thursday due to downslope westerly winds in the wake of system #1. Potential (10 to 20%) for west wind gusts of around 50 to 55 mph across the central and south central highlands of eastern Torrance, western Guadalupe and northeast Lincoln County midday Thursday.

System #2 over the Great Basin Thursday dives southeast and closes off into an upper low over the Four Corners area late Thursday night with 700 mb temperatures as low as -9 to -12 deg C under the core of the low. These colder temperatures along with lift under the low will allow snow showers to move into western and central NM Thursday evening through Friday morning. This snow will have an easier time to accumulate and be more impactful to travel on area roads and highways. Right now, advisories will be likely (>60%) for the mountain ranges of western and central NM with low probabilities (20 to 30%) for the nearby western and northwest highlands and upper RGV. As the upper low moves along I-40 Friday morning, attention turns to northeast NM. A potent backdoor front will push south through this part of the state early Friday morning with surface cyclogenesis occurring and a nearly stacked low with height between Santa Rosa and Tucumcari around sunrise. Some wraparound moisture along with a TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) on the north and northwest quadrants of the low circulation will result in bands of moderate to heavy snow across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and northeast highlands and plains Friday morning through late Friday afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates will be across Raton Pass and much of Union County. A tight surface pressure gradient will result in strong north wind gusts of around 30 to 45 mph with the strongest wind gusts across Raton Pass and Union County. Will let this evening/overnight shifts issue a Winter Storm Watch for far northeast NM. With the wind gusts mentioned above and resultant visibility below 1/2 to 1/4 mile, a Blizzard Warning is not out of the question for the Raton Pass and Union County zones. With these winter weather to near blizzard conditions, potential exists for temporary road closures like I-25 at Raton Pass and U.S. 64/87 between Raton and Clayton. No surprise, Friday will probably be one of the coldest days of this winter season so far with highs in the upper 20s to around 40 for most of the forecast area and mid 40s to near 50 for the southeast plains.

Snow across northeast NM should taper off Friday evening as the upper low weakens/opens and races northeast towards the central U.S. Strong cold air advection behind the system along with fresh snow cover will result in the coldest night of the 2025/2026 Winter Season so far with lows in the single digits to mid teens. Places like Gallup and Taos will likely bottom out around 0 with Angel Fire potentially getting to the low negative teens! These really cold temperatures will impact those without shelter and/or heating. Some locations across central NM like Grants, Socorro, Santa Fe and Moriarty could get very close to Cold Weather Advisory Criteria. A cold and sunny Saturday in the wake of the system with lower elevations in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures slowly warm back up to near normal readings for mid January with mostly clear skies and light winds early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through through 21Z, with rapidly deteriorating conditions from the southwest thereafter. Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions are likely along and west of the central mountain chain after 00Z tomorrow, with a batch of rain/snow showers periodically reducing visibility below 5 miles. P-type will remain rain at most terminals tomorrow evening, with a moderate chance for a change over to snow for areas above 7,000 feet after 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

No critical fire weather conditions expected through early next week. Mild and dry through tomorrow afternoon. Rain and mountain snow across the state Wednesday evening through mid Thursday morning as a initial system moves across the state. A brief break in precipitation for most with some breezy to windy conditions and elevated fire weather across east central New Mexico during the day Thursday. A second system brings snow across western and central NM Thursday evening through Friday morning and then moderate to heavy snow/blowing snow across northeast NM and the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Friday morning and Friday afternoon. Much colder areawide Friday and Saturday with the coldest temperatures of this winter season expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Dry with gradually warming temperatures early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 29 51 33 44 / 0 0 50 70 Dulce........................... 19 50 26 40 / 0 0 60 90 Cuba............................ 25 50 29 40 / 0 10 80 90 Gallup.......................... 21 49 28 39 / 0 20 70 80 El Morro........................ 27 49 30 37 / 0 40 90 80 Grants.......................... 22 53 28 43 / 0 30 80 70 Quemado......................... 27 51 29 40 / 0 70 80 80 Magdalena....................... 35 53 32 46 / 0 60 90 50 Datil........................... 29 49 29 40 / 0 60 90 50 Reserve......................... 24 53 29 44 / 0 80 90 80 Glenwood........................ 28 57 32 48 / 0 80 90 80 Chama........................... 20 44 24 33 / 0 0 50 80 Los Alamos...................... 30 48 30 39 / 0 5 70 70 Pecos........................... 29 52 28 41 / 0 10 60 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 27 48 26 39 / 0 0 40 50 Red River....................... 24 40 22 30 / 0 0 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 19 47 22 35 / 0 0 40 40 Taos............................ 21 51 27 41 / 0 0 50 50 Mora............................ 29 56 27 43 / 0 5 50 30 Espanola........................ 23 55 30 47 / 0 5 60 60 Santa Fe........................ 31 50 31 41 / 0 10 70 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 27 52 31 44 / 0 10 70 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 54 36 47 / 0 20 80 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 55 36 50 / 0 30 80 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 57 35 53 / 0 30 80 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 54 35 50 / 0 20 80 60 Belen........................... 27 56 35 53 / 0 40 80 60 Bernalillo...................... 32 57 36 51 / 0 20 80 60 Bosque Farms.................... 27 56 34 52 / 0 30 80 60 Corrales........................ 32 57 36 52 / 0 20 80 60 Los Lunas....................... 29 56 35 52 / 0 40 80 60 Placitas........................ 34 53 35 46 / 0 20 80 70 Rio Rancho...................... 33 55 36 50 / 0 20 80 60 Socorro......................... 34 58 36 55 / 0 60 90 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 50 31 42 / 0 20 80 70 Tijeras......................... 32 51 32 44 / 0 30 80 70 Edgewood........................ 29 54 32 45 / 0 20 80 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 22 56 31 46 / 0 30 80 50 Clines Corners.................. 28 52 31 42 / 0 20 70 40 Mountainair..................... 30 54 33 45 / 0 40 90 60 Gran Quivira.................... 31 54 33 46 / 0 50 90 50 Carrizozo....................... 35 59 37 49 / 0 60 90 30 Ruidoso......................... 37 54 33 43 / 0 50 90 30 Capulin......................... 29 57 29 45 / 0 0 20 10 Raton........................... 26 59 28 49 / 0 0 20 10 Springer........................ 25 61 30 51 / 0 0 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 29 57 30 45 / 0 5 40 20 Clayton......................... 37 65 39 54 / 0 0 40 5 Roy............................. 30 60 34 53 / 0 0 30 5 Conchas......................... 32 67 40 60 / 0 5 50 5 Santa Rosa...................... 37 63 39 54 / 0 10 70 5 Tucumcari....................... 37 69 41 62 / 0 0 70 5 Clovis.......................... 36 68 41 59 / 0 0 70 5 Portales........................ 34 70 42 60 / 0 0 70 5 Fort Sumner..................... 32 67 40 58 / 0 10 70 5 Roswell......................... 34 69 41 63 / 0 10 60 5 Picacho......................... 38 67 40 55 / 0 20 60 5 Elk............................. 34 67 36 52 / 0 30 70 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.