textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- A surge of monsoonal moisture to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms with lengthy periods of rain. Heavy rainfall to elevate the risk for widespread flooding, especially in areas with recent flooding, urban drainages, low-lying areas, and around burn scars.

- River flooding favored Tuesday through Friday. Low-lying farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding.

- Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph Monday and Tuesday to create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles. Large trees with saturated soils may lead to downed trees, especially in the higher terrain Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower from west to east tonight as rich moisture surges northeast into the region on a 85-95kt upper level jet over the Great Basin. The 00Z NAEFS shows +3.8 stdev PWATs surging northeast into the southwest CONUS as remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo squeezes ahead of a 565dm H5 low along the CA coast. Large-scale ascent with limited convective instability will allow showers and areas of rain to develop over northwest NM late tonight and Monday morning. Slightly better surface-based instability will develop Monday afternoon and allow greater coverage of showers and storms to form near the Cont Divide. CAMs are in good agreement forcing a large area of rain and storms eastward into the RGV by late Monday afternoon. The Flood Watch start time has been delayed til noon Monday since higher rainfall rates are likely to occur in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will also become breezy Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching upper level speed max with decreasing surface pressure over central NM (wind gusts of 25 to 35mph). Locally heavy rainfall from storms with large areas of rain will continue all night Monday within northern, central, and western NM. Eastern NM will see less widespread storms thru Monday night but with very heavy rainfall rates possible. The 24-hr HREF LPMM QPF is very impressive with localized amounts >2". These rainfall amounts will pose a significant risk for flooding given the recent record rainfall over much of the region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Large areas of moderate to heavy rain with embedded storms will continue Tuesday as the H5 low shifts east across southeast AZ and the remnant circulation from Polo slides northeast into southern NM. 12Z models are aggressive with QPF as the two systems merge over the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Surface-based instability is the greatest across eastern NM where storms with torrential rainfall are possible. The flood threat will be significant with a 55% chance of flash flooding within 25km of any point across eastern NM. River flooding may begin over the region Tuesday night with widespread 48-hr rainfall amounts of 1 to 3" expected by sunrise Wednesday. This will come on top of already saturated soils from recent record rainfall.

An atypical weather feature for our region with tropical remnants is the potential for windy conditions on Tuesday. MOS guidance is hinting at patchy sustained winds in the 25 to 35kt range. The 12Z NAM actually pulls the remnant circulation center from Polo northward from south-central NM across the ABQ metro area into northeast NM Tuesday with 700mb winds near 50kt. The surface low crosses near the ABQ metro with a pressure near 989mb. This may lead to a period of stronger winds in the high terrain which has potential to down trees in saturated soils. The 12Z RRFS indicates south and southeast wind gusts of 35-45 mph near the remnant circulation center. This is a low probability event but warrants some attention.

By Wednesday, there is disagreement beginning to develop with regard to how the entire system exits the region. The 12Z EC and Canadian are still consistent with a slower low progression while the NAM and GFS are more progressive. Either way, it appears there may be rain lingering over northern and eastern NM for at least part of the day Wednesday. The ECMWF actually keeps precip lingering over northeast NM into Thursday. Locally greater than 5" of rain is possible by Wednesday night, especially over northern and northeast NM. Flash flooding would be most severe in areas with training storms, recent heavy rain from last week, and around burn scars.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Mid and high level cloud cover will continue increasing from west to east over the airspace thru tonight. Showers and isolated TSRA will enter northwest NM after midnight with storm motions toward the northeast around 20 to 30KT. There is a 30 to 40% chance for widespread MVFR cigs to develop with the precip before sunrise Monday from KGUP to KFMN. The more significant and widespread impacts to aviation will arrive Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms with long periods of rain is expected Monday thru Wednesday. Total QPF amounts will average 1 to 3" with locally >5" possible. Saturated soils across the region will elevate the risk for flooding. Drier weather will return Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 56 64 54 65 / 50 80 90 80 Dulce........................... 46 61 44 61 / 40 90 90 90 Cuba............................ 52 63 50 58 / 20 90 90 100 Gallup.......................... 51 65 48 60 / 40 80 90 90 El Morro........................ 50 66 47 58 / 10 90 90 90 Grants.......................... 53 69 50 60 / 10 90 90 100 Quemado......................... 53 72 52 61 / 10 70 90 100 Magdalena....................... 57 72 55 60 / 5 70 90 90 Datil........................... 53 69 52 59 / 5 70 90 100 Reserve......................... 54 79 54 65 / 10 70 90 100 Glenwood........................ 60 83 58 70 / 10 70 90 100 Chama........................... 47 57 46 55 / 50 90 90 90 Los Alamos...................... 56 66 52 57 / 10 60 90 100 Pecos........................... 52 71 52 60 / 5 50 90 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 64 49 58 / 10 70 90 100 Red River....................... 40 61 41 51 / 10 70 90 100 Angel Fire...................... 39 62 38 55 / 5 60 90 100 Taos............................ 48 66 48 59 / 10 70 90 100 Mora............................ 50 68 50 59 / 0 40 80 90 Espanola........................ 55 73 54 65 / 10 60 90 100 Santa Fe........................ 57 70 54 59 / 5 60 90 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 71 53 61 / 5 60 90 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 75 57 62 / 5 60 90 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 76 57 64 / 5 60 90 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 78 57 65 / 5 60 90 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 76 59 63 / 5 70 90 90 Belen........................... 58 79 57 65 / 5 60 90 90 Bernalillo...................... 59 77 58 65 / 5 70 90 90 Bosque Farms.................... 57 78 55 65 / 5 60 90 90 Corrales........................ 59 77 58 65 / 5 70 90 90 Los Lunas....................... 58 78 57 65 / 5 60 90 90 Placitas........................ 59 72 57 61 / 5 60 90 90 Rio Rancho...................... 59 76 58 64 / 5 70 90 90 Socorro......................... 62 82 60 68 / 5 60 90 90 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 69 52 57 / 0 60 90 90 Tijeras......................... 55 72 53 60 / 0 50 90 90 Edgewood........................ 52 74 52 61 / 0 40 90 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 76 51 63 / 0 40 90 90 Clines Corners.................. 54 74 53 60 / 0 30 90 90 Mountainair..................... 53 75 53 61 / 0 30 90 100 Gran Quivira.................... 54 75 54 61 / 0 30 90 100 Carrizozo....................... 59 79 59 67 / 0 30 90 90 Ruidoso......................... 54 76 55 64 / 0 30 90 90 Capulin......................... 53 70 53 60 / 0 5 80 100 Raton........................... 52 73 52 62 / 0 20 80 100 Springer........................ 51 75 54 64 / 0 10 80 90 Las Vegas....................... 51 71 53 60 / 5 20 90 90 Clayton......................... 57 79 59 67 / 0 0 80 90 Roy............................. 56 76 56 64 / 0 0 80 90 Conchas......................... 59 85 62 72 / 0 0 90 90 Santa Rosa...................... 58 81 61 68 / 0 0 90 90 Tucumcari....................... 59 86 63 74 / 0 0 80 90 Clovis.......................... 59 86 63 75 / 0 0 80 90 Portales........................ 60 87 64 77 / 0 0 80 90 Fort Sumner..................... 60 85 63 73 / 0 0 90 90 Roswell......................... 58 86 63 79 / 0 0 80 90 Picacho......................... 58 83 60 74 / 0 10 90 90 Elk............................. 56 83 58 73 / 0 20 90 90

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for NMZ201>211-213-214-216>221-224>226-241.

Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.