textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread heavy rain today through Thursday with a good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances will increase again in the west Sunday and areawide Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 127 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture is forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall over the forecast area today through Thursday night with a very good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding. An upper level low pressure system passing northeastward from the Great Basin over the northern Rockies, and a mid-level high pressure system parked over eastern TX, will draw very rich subtropical moisture north and northeastward over the forecast area today and tonight with flooding impacts likely beginning this afternoon, then becoming more numerous this evening. The latest forecast models are generating heavier rain farther west than previous runs, and spreading it near the CO border and onto the east central plains during late afternoon and early evening. So, we expanded the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for this afternoon through Wednesday to include all zones along the AZ and CO border, as well as Quay County. Later forecast shifts will probably expand the Watch to include Roosevelt and Curry Counties as well, since the rich subtropical moisture fetch will continue with embedded disturbances Wednesday and Wednesday night, then a Baja low will cross the Four Corners triggering more storms over the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Due to this active subtropical moisture fetch, GEFS Ensemble PWATs spike up to 225% of normal today through Thursday, except up to 250% of normal Wednesday, with near record (if not record) PWATs likely. The most likely rain amount this afternoon through Thursday night is currently forecast to be 2-4" in most places along and east of the central mountain chain, and also over the southwest mountains and lower Rio Grande Valley. Forecast amounts farther west generally vary from 1-3 inches, except for lighter amounts near the Four Corners. The NBM 90th Percentile (serves as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes) indicates a 10 percent chance that some locations east of the continental divide may accumulate 4 to 8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts near 10 inches possible on the eastern plains. Farther west, these upper-end scenario amounts mostly vary from 2-4 inches, except for lower amounts near the Four Corners. With this forecast package we expanded the Watch to the northwest plateau including Farmington, because that area should have the most destabilizing sun today, and atmospheric forcing for heavy rainfall will spike there this evening as the upper low over the Great Basin migrates northeastward. It's quite possible model QPF is under forecast around Farmington.

High temperatures a few to several degrees below 1991-2020 averages are forecast each day. Highs should bottom out on Wednesday around 6-20 degrees below average, which will place them mostly in the 60s and 70s, except for some 50s and upper 40s in the mountains.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The subtropical moisture fetch looks to continue over the area on Friday as an upper level trough moves onshore over the Pacific northwest and the high pressure center over eastern TX begins to migrate southwestward over the Gulf Coast. Models depict PWATs beginning to trend downward Friday, while remaining up to 180% of normal over northeast NM. This will be plenty of moisture for locally heavy rainfall to occur and produce more localized flooding problems Friday afternoon and evening, especially given all of the antecedent moisture in place. The main risk for additional locally heavy rainfall Friday should be east of the continental divide, and especially along and east of the central mountain chain.

Much drier air will move over the forecast area Saturday, as the Pacific Northwest trough ejects northeastward over the Canadian Rockies, probably limiting spotty storms to our south-central mountains and southeast plains that afternoon. Precip chances will then increase again over western areas starting Sunday as an upper level trough digging over the west coast draws another stream of monsoon moisture northward. Precip chances will increase areawide on Monday as the upper trough moves inland drawing the monsoon moisture stream more squarely over NM again. GEFS Ensemble PWATs reach around 180% of normal over central and southwest parts of the forecast area Monday, suggesting a few storms may be able to produce rain rates over 1 inch per hour there with an isolated flash flood risk.

After high temperatures vary from near to around 9 degrees below average on Friday, readings will rebound over the weekend reaching up to 10 degrees above average over eastern areas by Sunday; while remaining mostly below average in the west.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas of low clouds and some patchy fog east of the central mountain chain will gradually diminish during late morning. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage, becoming numerous during early afternoon, and widespread overnight. Some storms this afternoon and tonight will produce torrential rainfall with wet microbursts and erratic wind gusts potentially reaching 45 KT. Storms will move toward the north and northeast at speeds around 10-20 KT this afternoon, then mainly toward the north tonight at speeds from 15-35 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

With the powerful surge of monsoon moisture expected for the remainder of the work week, the main fire weather concerns will be erratic thunderstorm outflows. Few if any storms are forecast over the fire weather forecast area on Saturday. Then, storm chances will increase again early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 80 55 66 53 / 40 60 50 50 Dulce........................... 75 43 61 42 / 70 80 80 70 Cuba............................ 71 49 60 49 / 60 70 90 80 Gallup.......................... 74 49 62 45 / 60 70 70 40 El Morro........................ 70 47 59 45 / 70 80 80 60 Grants.......................... 72 51 61 49 / 60 80 80 70 Quemado......................... 73 52 61 48 / 70 80 80 60 Magdalena....................... 72 53 61 52 / 70 90 100 70 Datil........................... 69 51 58 49 / 70 90 100 60 Reserve......................... 75 54 65 50 / 60 90 90 40 Glenwood........................ 80 57 70 53 / 60 90 90 40 Chama........................... 67 45 56 45 / 70 80 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 71 53 60 52 / 60 80 100 90 Pecos........................... 70 51 61 51 / 60 80 100 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 49 60 50 / 30 60 90 90 Red River....................... 62 42 54 43 / 40 70 100 90 Angel Fire...................... 66 34 57 35 / 60 80 100 90 Taos............................ 73 47 63 47 / 50 70 100 90 Mora............................ 67 50 60 50 / 60 90 100 90 Espanola........................ 79 54 66 54 / 50 80 100 90 Santa Fe........................ 72 53 62 53 / 70 80 100 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 53 64 52 / 60 80 100 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 57 66 57 / 70 80 100 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 57 66 56 / 70 90 90 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 57 68 55 / 60 90 90 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 58 66 58 / 70 90 90 80 Belen........................... 79 57 68 55 / 60 90 90 70 Bernalillo...................... 79 57 67 56 / 70 80 100 80 Bosque Farms.................... 80 55 68 53 / 70 90 90 70 Corrales........................ 79 58 67 57 / 70 80 90 80 Los Lunas....................... 80 57 68 55 / 60 90 90 70 Placitas........................ 77 56 65 56 / 70 80 100 80 Rio Rancho...................... 78 58 66 57 / 70 80 90 80 Socorro......................... 80 59 68 57 / 70 90 100 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 52 62 51 / 80 80 100 80 Tijeras......................... 74 54 63 53 / 70 80 100 80 Edgewood........................ 74 52 64 51 / 60 90 100 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 50 66 49 / 60 90 100 80 Clines Corners.................. 71 50 63 50 / 70 90 100 90 Mountainair..................... 73 52 64 51 / 70 100 100 80 Gran Quivira.................... 73 53 65 52 / 60 100 100 70 Carrizozo....................... 77 57 68 55 / 60 90 100 70 Ruidoso......................... 69 53 63 52 / 70 90 100 70 Capulin......................... 71 51 64 51 / 30 70 80 90 Raton........................... 74 51 66 51 / 30 60 80 90 Springer........................ 76 52 68 52 / 30 80 90 90 Las Vegas....................... 69 52 62 52 / 50 90 100 90 Clayton......................... 75 58 71 57 / 20 70 80 90 Roy............................. 72 55 66 54 / 30 90 90 100 Conchas......................... 80 61 74 60 / 40 90 90 90 Santa Rosa...................... 78 60 70 60 / 40 90 90 90 Tucumcari....................... 81 61 76 59 / 30 80 80 90 Clovis.......................... 80 59 76 59 / 40 70 80 90 Portales........................ 81 60 77 61 / 40 70 80 90 Fort Sumner..................... 82 61 76 61 / 40 90 90 90 Roswell......................... 86 63 79 62 / 40 80 80 90 Picacho......................... 78 59 70 58 / 60 90 100 80 Elk............................. 75 56 67 55 / 70 90 90 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Wednesday afternoon for NMZ201>234-237>241.