textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across northeast and east central areas Tuesday. More isolated high fire danger on Wedesday.

- Temperatures warm significantly this week, threatening record highs mid to late week in eastern and central New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1253 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

The ridge presiding over the Intermountain West has begun to flatten, pushing the jet stream further south into the northern Rockies. Winds in the 700-500mb layer will increase enough over New Mexico to induce the development of a lee-side Low in the TX Panhandle. GEFS ensemble mean has this Low deepening to around 998mb, although the deterministic EC is showing the sfc Low getting down to around 995mb. This will be strong enough to create some stronger breezes along and east of the central mountain chain, with windy conditions in the Central Highlands and Eastern Plains. The downsloping breeze will increase temps 5 to 20 degrees from Monday's highs, with the biggest change in the southeast plains. Record highs are currently forecast at locations such as Clayton, Clovis, and Tucumcari, with near records in much of eastern NM. High fire danger will be the main concern on Tuesday, with single digit humidities throughout much of east-central and northeastern New Mexico. The jet stream will continue shifting southward on Wednesday, bringing some mid-level moisture along with it. This will increase humidities a bit more, but winds and temperatures will actually increase a tad in most areas. More record highs are expected to be broken in eastern NM on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1253 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Dry northwest flow will continue to be the story Thursday and Friday, with breezy west to northwest winds and well-above normal temperatures. A backdoor frontal passage Wednesday night will cool temps off a tad in the east, but warm right back up on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be the warmest in the Albuquerque metro this weekend, with forecast highs rising well into the 70s. There is a 20% chance that Albuquerque will reach 80F on Sunday for the first time since the Fall. If this low possibility scenario were to occur, it would be the earliest 80 degree day on record by over 1 week. Model uncertainty begins to increase early next week. A minority on ensembles (around 15%) show troughing developing in the Northern Plains, which would likely translate to a strong cold front moving south into eastern NM. As a result, there is high uncertainty for forecast high temperatures in eastern NM during this time period and they will likely fluctuate significantly in the coming days.

The most recent CPC outlook is hinting at a transition to wetter weather next week. Ensemble guidance from the EPS is not as excited, with only about 10-25% of its ensembles showing this transition. The GEFS and GEPS are slightly more bullish about wetter weather thanks to the development a closed Low over the desert southwest helping to draw Gulf moisture into eastern NM. If a backdoor cold front were to get into the mix (as shown by the deterministic EC), then this has the potential to become a more active period with cooler temperatures and widespread rain/snow that will favor eastern NM.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with VFR cigs in the form of high clouds. WNW flow in the lower levels will increase Tuesday, with gusts to between 25-30kts at area terminals by afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1253 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Strengthening northwest flow will translate to stronger west/northwest winds, lower humidities, and warmer temperatures in eastern NM today. This will create several hours of critical fire weather conditions in fine fuels east of the central mountain chain. 6-10 hours of Red Flag conditions are forecast for portions of the Central Highlands and East Central Plains along I-40 where fire danger is greatest today. Furthermore, many of these areas have not seen wetting precipitation since late January and the recent windy/dry weather has only further contributed to the drying of grasses.

West/northwest wind speeds on Wednesday will be very similar to those on Tuesday, except humidities will trend higher as mid-level moisture pushes into the area. Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are likely throughout eastern NM, but the probability of Red Flag criteria being met is too low and isolated right now to issue a Fire Weather Watch.

A weak backdoor frontal passage will push move through eastern NM Wednesday night, knocking temperatures down a few degrees. Light to moderate northwest breezes will be present each afternoon through the weekend, with well-above normal to record breaking temperatures in central and eastern New Mexico.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 34 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 57 23 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 61 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 66 29 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 64 34 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 68 32 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 66 35 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 70 43 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 66 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 72 33 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 74 37 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 50 26 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 39 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 63 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 30 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 55 24 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 61 29 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 63 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 39 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 66 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 45 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 41 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 40 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 75 37 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 71 40 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 73 35 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 74 37 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 68 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 40 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 77 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 41 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 65 41 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 66 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 37 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 64 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 68 40 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 69 41 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 43 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 65 45 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 70 34 70 29 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 72 31 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 73 32 74 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 69 37 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 42 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 39 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 81 41 83 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 48 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 82 41 83 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 46 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 81 47 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 80 49 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 48 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 50 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.