textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 558 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will continue to bring widespread heavy rain today through Thursday night with additional occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances will increase again and bring more soaking Sunday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today through Thursday night, an intense surge of monsoon moisture will continue to produce periods of heavy rain as it streams northward over the forecast area with embedded disturbances. By Friday morning, an upper level disturbance will eject northeastward to the Four Corners from the Baja Peninsula, then eastward along the NM/CO border through Friday evening, keeping showers and storms going with more localized heavy rainfall mainly along and east of the continental divide. With GEFS Ensemble PWATs forecast to reach nearly 250 percent of normal today, then to remain up to 200 percent of normal on Thursday, rain rates in stronger cells should continue to reach 1-2 inches per hour. PWATs are forecast to fall between 115-190 percent of normal on Friday, which should enable locally heavy rain at rates near 1 inch per hour over northern and central areas, and over 1 inch per hour on the eastern plains. The most likely additional rain amount today through Friday evening is forecast to vary around 1 to 3 inches east of the continental divide with lighter amounts farther west. The NBM 90TH percentile rain amount (serves as an upper-end scenario for planning) indicates a 10 percent chance that a few parts of the eastern plains will be able to accumulate around 4 to 8 inches of additional rainfall, with 2-4 inches west of there to the continental divide, and 0.5-2 inches farther west to the AZ border.

Skies will clear from west to east over the forecast area Friday night, when low clouds and fog should become widespread. Low clouds and fog will no doubt linger until mid morning Saturday.

High temperatures should bottom out today around 5-20 degrees below 1991-2020 averages, which will place them mostly in the 60s and 70s, except for some 50s and upper 40s in the mountains. Highs will trend a few to 10 degrees warmer on Thursday, then a few to 3 degrees warmer again on Friday, when readings should vary from near to as much as 10 degrees below 1991-2020 averages.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Dry weather is forecast Saturday, and most places on Sunday as well, as an upper level trough tracking eastward over the US/Canadian border steers much drier air over NM. High temperatures will continue to warm, reaching the 70s and 80s by Sunday; except for 60s and some 50s in the mountains. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over southwest areas Sunday afternoon, then west of the central mountain chain Sunday night, and areawide on Monday into Tuesday, as an upper level trough crossing the western US draws rich subtropical moisture northward again. On Monday, GEFS Ensemble PWATs look to peak between 170-200% of normal, or from 1-1.28 inches, enabling a return of locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour; as well as a risk of flash flooding that will probably linger into Tuesday (at least in the east). With the increasing moisture early in the coming work week, high temperatures will trend downward again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, will continue today and tonight. The exception will be from XNI to GUP and FMN, where most of the precip should pass just to the east. Late tonight, high res models depict showers decreasing in coverage west of the Rio Grande. Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions are also forecast today through tonight during periods of heavier precipitation, fog, and low clouds; mostly along and east of the continental divide. Storm motion today will be toward the north around 25-35 KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

With the powerful surge of monsoon moisture expected for the remainder of the work week, and a secondary surge early next week, the main fire weather concerns will be erratic thunderstorm outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 68 54 72 53 / 60 60 30 20 Dulce........................... 63 45 69 44 / 90 90 70 50 Cuba............................ 60 48 66 48 / 90 90 50 40 Gallup.......................... 63 46 70 46 / 60 40 30 30 El Morro........................ 58 44 68 45 / 90 60 40 40 Grants.......................... 61 48 70 49 / 90 70 40 50 Quemado......................... 60 48 69 49 / 90 50 40 40 Magdalena....................... 59 51 68 52 / 100 70 50 70 Datil........................... 57 47 67 49 / 90 70 40 60 Reserve......................... 67 49 75 51 / 80 40 30 60 Glenwood........................ 74 54 80 56 / 90 50 30 70 Chama........................... 58 45 62 44 / 90 90 80 50 Los Alamos...................... 59 52 66 51 / 100 100 60 50 Pecos........................... 62 50 68 49 / 100 100 60 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 48 65 48 / 90 100 70 40 Red River....................... 53 43 57 41 / 90 100 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 58 38 63 36 / 90 100 70 40 Taos............................ 64 48 68 47 / 90 100 70 40 Mora............................ 61 49 68 47 / 90 100 70 50 Espanola........................ 66 53 73 52 / 90 100 60 50 Santa Fe........................ 62 53 67 52 / 100 100 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 52 70 52 / 100 100 60 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 56 72 56 / 100 100 40 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 56 74 56 / 90 90 40 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 56 75 56 / 90 90 30 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 57 73 56 / 90 90 30 60 Belen........................... 66 55 74 56 / 100 80 30 70 Bernalillo...................... 67 56 74 56 / 90 90 30 60 Bosque Farms.................... 67 54 74 54 / 90 80 30 70 Corrales........................ 68 56 74 56 / 90 90 30 60 Los Lunas....................... 66 55 74 55 / 90 80 30 70 Placitas........................ 64 55 71 55 / 100 100 40 60 Rio Rancho...................... 66 57 73 56 / 90 90 30 60 Socorro......................... 69 56 76 57 / 100 80 40 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 51 68 51 / 100 100 40 60 Tijeras......................... 62 53 68 53 / 100 100 40 60 Edgewood........................ 64 52 70 51 / 100 100 40 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 50 72 49 / 100 100 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 63 51 68 50 / 100 100 50 70 Mountainair..................... 64 51 69 52 / 100 100 50 80 Gran Quivira.................... 64 52 68 53 / 100 100 50 80 Carrizozo....................... 68 56 71 56 / 100 90 60 90 Ruidoso......................... 63 52 68 52 / 90 90 70 90 Capulin......................... 64 51 67 51 / 80 100 70 60 Raton........................... 66 51 71 50 / 80 100 70 60 Springer........................ 68 53 73 50 / 80 100 70 50 Las Vegas....................... 61 51 68 49 / 90 100 70 60 Clayton......................... 71 59 73 57 / 80 100 80 70 Roy............................. 66 56 70 54 / 90 100 70 70 Conchas......................... 74 61 77 60 / 90 100 80 80 Santa Rosa...................... 69 60 73 59 / 100 90 70 90 Tucumcari....................... 76 60 77 59 / 90 90 60 80 Clovis.......................... 77 61 77 60 / 70 80 70 90 Portales........................ 78 63 79 61 / 60 80 70 80 Fort Sumner..................... 75 62 76 61 / 90 90 70 90 Roswell......................... 77 62 78 63 / 60 90 60 90 Picacho......................... 70 58 74 58 / 90 80 70 90 Elk............................. 69 56 73 56 / 90 80 70 90

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>241.