textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - There is a moderate risk of heat induced illness through lower elevation areas where highs in the 90s to low 100s will be each day.

- There is a moderate risk of scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms producing strong gusty and erratic winds thru western and central NM Tuesday thru Friday.

- There is a low (<20%) chance a strong to severe thunderstorm clips far northeastern NM Sunday and Monday evenings.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

H5 heights have flattened over NM with a modest 593dm H5 over the northern Gulf of CA allowing for zonal flow to remain over the Land of Enchantment. Clear skies, and hot weather reign supreme another day today as a result. Highs will range from the 70s/80s in the mountains to 90s and low 100s at lower elevation areas. Downslope compressional warming associated with modest westerly winds thru eastern NM will bump high temperatures to or just above 105F at Roswell where a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon and early evening. Today being the Summer Solstice, it should be no surprise that the UV Index will be high at 12. Those outdoors enjoying the clear skies will be at risk of sunburn quickly.

Tonight will see things change quickly due a convectively enhanced cold front pushing south and westward thru eastern NM through Monday morning. This front will bank up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain late Monday morning dropping high temperatures 10F to 15F from Sunday's readings into the 80s and 90s. Roswell still has a chance to flirt with 100F again however as much of the CAA stays further north. Suppression beneath the building 596dm H5 high over south-central NM will limit thunderstorm potential to areas along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo's. Much of Monday's thunderstorm potential will in fact be north of the area along the Front Range of the Rockies in CO. These cells look to track quickly southeast with a minor (<20%) chance of clipping far northeastern NM Monday evening. Convective outflow from this activity is more likely to help push low-level moisture across eastern NM back up into the east slopes of the central mountain chain heading into Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The season's first rendition of the monsoon high reaches 598dm near the bootheel of NM Tuesday, with mid-level moisture advecting northward thru AZ around the northwestern periphery of the H5 high. Suppressing westerlies will mix out a substantial amount of boundary layer moisture east of the central mountain chain Tuesday, while the aforementioned mid-level moisture pushing into eastern AZ and western NM will be realized as scattered virga showers and perhaps a dry thunderstorm or two. Scattered coverage of dry thunderstorms looks to continue over much of western NM Wednesday through Friday. The threat of dry microbursts will be present across western NM and into the Rio Grande Valley from Td depressions of 50+ degrees, inverted-V soundings yielding 1000-1300 J/kg of DCAPE each one of these days. Convective activity over the eastern plains will be more efficient rain producers compared to their western brethren. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding boundary layer moisture across eastern NM. As such, some of the drier natured thunderstorm activity could end up stretching into portions of the central highlands and eastern plains.

The H5 high flattens by next weekend as global numerical model solutions look to be in good agreement that a well defined upper low pushes into the PacNW. This will bring a return of dry westerly flow into New Mexico, shutting down thunderstorm chances and raising temperatures further.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR prevails with breezy westerlies this afternoon. The exception is some low stratus intruding into northeastern NM from near KRTN to KCAO this hour. These clouds will clear by mid to late morning. A cold front advances back south and west thru eastern NM tonight into Monday morning, likely reaching KSAF and KROW near the end of the TAF period by 10Z to 12Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Very dry conditions highlighted by 12 to 20 hours of single-digit humidity continues today, but with slightly weaker westerly winds. Elevated to locally or short-lived critical fire weather conditions will result, alongside deep layer atmospheric mixing up to 12k-15k ft. A cold front sweeps thru eastern NM tonight into Monday morning bringing increased humidity and good to excellent recoveries. Dry conditions persist along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. The season's first rendition of a monsoon high building over southwestern NM will bring some mid-level moisture northward into western NM Tuesday thru Friday, increasing the threat of virga induced gusty and erratic winds and/or dry lightning. Afternoon thunderstorm activity thru eastern NM will be wetter in nature, but uncertainty remains by how much into the central highlands drier natured thunderstorms will push Wednesday thru Friday. Dry prevailing westerlies look to return next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 94 51 96 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 43 91 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 51 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 90 43 92 48 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 46 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 44 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 92 58 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 89 52 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 94 47 96 52 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 96 53 97 58 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 82 41 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 53 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 51 85 52 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 77 43 76 45 / 0 0 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 37 79 38 / 0 0 10 0 Taos............................ 89 48 88 51 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 87 51 84 51 / 0 0 10 0 Espanola........................ 95 56 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 89 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 65 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 60 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 61 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 100 58 99 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 60 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 57 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 61 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 93 61 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 61 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 102 66 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 91 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 51 93 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 89 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 93 55 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 92 56 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 96 63 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 88 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 90 52 79 52 / 0 20 20 5 Raton........................... 94 54 85 53 / 0 10 20 0 Springer........................ 94 56 86 54 / 0 5 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 91 55 84 54 / 0 0 10 0 Clayton......................... 95 59 83 59 / 0 20 20 10 Roy............................. 93 58 83 57 / 0 5 10 0 Conchas......................... 101 63 91 62 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 97 61 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 103 64 91 64 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 101 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 103 64 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 101 63 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 106 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 99 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 95 61 93 61 / 0 0 5 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.