textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Flash flooding at a heightened risk statewide this afternoon through Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture brings widespread and long duration showers and thunderstorms.

- River flooding favored Tuesday through Friday. Low-lying farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding.

- Gusty winds upwards of 25 to 45 mph through Tuesday will threaten downed trees in saturated soils and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The potentially dangerous and life threatening flash flood risk still has multiple factors aligning to impact much of New Mexico beginning Monday afternoon, peaking Tuesday, and lasting into Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch for the western half of the state remains in effect beginning 12pm MDT Monday, with another for the eastern half of the state beginning 6pm MDT Monday. Both currently last to 6am MDT Wednesday morning with possible longer extensions as needed. Many areas will see 48-hour rainfall totals of 1-3 inches by Wednesday afternoon, with locally high-end amounts upwards of 4 to 5+ inches. Low-lying and poorly drained areas, urban areas and arroyo systems, near river banks, recent burn scars will the most susceptible to flash flooding. Now is the time to make sure you have multiple ways of receiving any warnings issued, and be weather aware.

GOES satellite imagery is resolving the first wave of moisture from the ghostly remnants of TS Odalys being squeezed northeastward over AZ with some light showers over eastern AZ evident on radar. SW-NE oriented lines of showers with a few embedded fast moving thunderstorms will continue to spread over the Four Corners region late tonight into Monday morning. Increasing shear and divergent flow aloft east of the approaching 565dm H5 low over SoCAL will increase will increase the coverage of embedded thunderstorms over the northwestern third of the state. These areas mainly along and west of the Continental Divide, including places from Grants to Gallup to Farmington and Navajo Nation will see a peak in flash flood risk Monday afternoon before the line of more intense precipitation shifts eastward to the Rio Grande Valley Monday evening. The latest 00Z suite of HiRes CAMs are in fair agreement for the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and potentially northward to Taos will see their first wave of peak precipitation intensities and flash flood risk Monday evening. Afternoon driven convection favoring development over southwestern NM looks to push northward into Socorro County with northward driven outflow boundaries favorably invigorating convection along the aforementioned SW-NE oriented line of showers pushing to the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain during this time. Precipitation intensity looks to lessen near or just past midnight for this area while this wave of showers continues across eastern NM through Tuesday morning.

Thereafter, Tuesday sees the remnant but still intact moisture core of Polo move ashore northwestern Mexico while the H5 low spins to its north over central AZ. How Polo's remnants merge with this H5 low is still subtly uncertain over NM. Current numerical model guidance ranges in the core of Polo's moisture plume tracking either over south-central and central NM from El Paso to T or C up to ABQ and Santa Fe -OR- moving more toward south-central and southeastern NM impacting El Paso to Roswell to Clovis. Either track favors a timing of Tuesday afternoon and evening for the most intense precipitation. Neither track bodes well for the Ruidoso burn scars unfortunately. The combination of record level moisture (highlighted by PWAT climbing to 1.20" to 1.40", favorable atmospheric dynamics highlighted by strong shear and divergent flow aloft continues the high confidence for a period of high rainfall rates where this plume of moisture goes. The current timing of Tuesday evening and night into Wednesday morning also does not bode well given the threat of night time flash flooding. One perhaps favorable factor is the speed at which Polo's moisture plume will be moving, keeping the period of heavier precipitation to within a ~3hr window for most locations it tracks over. A secondary hazard Tuesday afternoon and evening will be stronger winds near the surface circulation center. While not notably strong by New Mexico standards, the combination of already saturated soils being pounded on by more rain will make it easier for these gusty winds to knock down trees and create hazardous crosswinds for some high profile vehicles alongside lower visibility.

While precipitation looks to continue over northwestern NM, due to the forecast track of Polo's remnants favoring the southeastern half of the state, flash flooding risk looks to lower a bit for the Four Corners region by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday morning through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Wednesday morning begins the final phase of this torrential downpour event as numerical model solutions look to bring a dry slot punching in behind the remnants of Polo, favoring the southern half of the state. Notable uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics around how Polo is absorbed into the H5 low over NM, either fully merging with the low over northern NM or being ejected out over the High Plains. How exactly this melding of systems plays will determine when precipitation comes to an end for any one location. However it plays out, it can be said that wrap-around moisture will favor ongoing lower intensity showers over at least the northern half of NM Wednesday, potentially lasting over western NM as long as Thursday morning. Conditions looks to steadily clear west to east over the state Thursday, with precipitation lasting over eastern NM as late as Friday morning.

The weekend finally arrives with clearer conditions and remnant high level moisture remaining in the form of higher humidity. River flooding and morning areas of fog are likely to linger over the state during this time however.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Light showers begin entering far western NM tonight, intensifying with sporadic MVFR conditions after sunrise Monday morning. Stray fast moving embedded thunderstorms will be possible in this area as overall precipitation expands eastward to the Rio Grande Valley late Monday afternoon. TEMPO groups are included mainly for the TS risk during this time reaching areas along and west of the central mountain chain. Thereafter, ceilings look to lower with LIFR/IFR conditions beginning to spread through the western half of the state all while shower activity looks to continue on. VFR looks to prevail along and east of the central mountain chain with shower and thunderstorm activity not reaching eastern NM until near 03Z to 06Z and thereafter into Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fire weather will not be applicable and is entirely irrelevant through the next 48-72 hours as a historic surge of moisture surges thru the state from the remnants of Hurricane Polo. Drier conditions behind a cold front return Thursday into Friday, with abundant moisture and higher humidity lingering thru next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 68 53 63 52 / 100 100 80 90 Dulce........................... 63 45 59 41 / 100 100 80 90 Cuba............................ 67 50 55 45 / 90 100 90 90 Gallup.......................... 68 47 58 41 / 90 100 90 90 El Morro........................ 68 45 54 39 / 80 100 90 90 Grants.......................... 71 50 57 43 / 90 100 90 90 Quemado......................... 73 51 57 43 / 80 100 100 80 Magdalena....................... 75 55 59 47 / 50 100 100 80 Datil........................... 70 50 56 42 / 80 100 90 70 Reserve......................... 78 54 64 45 / 80 100 100 70 Glenwood........................ 82 57 69 48 / 90 100 90 70 Chama........................... 58 46 53 43 / 90 100 90 90 Los Alamos...................... 69 52 57 49 / 40 100 100 90 Pecos........................... 73 52 60 47 / 20 100 90 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 49 58 46 / 40 100 90 90 Red River....................... 59 43 51 39 / 40 100 90 90 Angel Fire...................... 64 39 55 34 / 20 100 90 100 Taos............................ 69 48 61 44 / 30 100 90 90 Mora............................ 69 51 59 46 / 10 100 90 90 Espanola........................ 77 55 65 50 / 30 100 100 90 Santa Fe........................ 73 54 60 49 / 30 100 100 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 53 61 48 / 30 100 100 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 57 63 52 / 40 100 100 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 57 64 52 / 40 100 100 90 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 57 65 52 / 40 100 100 90 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 58 63 53 / 40 100 100 90 Belen........................... 84 57 65 51 / 40 100 100 80 Bernalillo...................... 82 57 64 52 / 40 100 100 90 Bosque Farms.................... 83 55 65 50 / 40 100 100 90 Corrales........................ 81 58 65 52 / 40 100 100 90 Los Lunas....................... 83 57 65 51 / 40 100 100 90 Placitas........................ 79 57 61 52 / 30 100 100 90 Rio Rancho...................... 81 58 63 53 / 40 100 100 90 Socorro......................... 83 59 69 52 / 30 100 100 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 52 59 47 / 30 100 100 90 Tijeras......................... 75 55 60 49 / 30 100 100 90 Edgewood........................ 76 53 61 47 / 30 100 90 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 52 63 46 / 20 100 90 90 Clines Corners.................. 75 52 60 47 / 10 100 90 90 Mountainair..................... 77 53 61 47 / 20 100 90 90 Gran Quivira.................... 76 54 61 48 / 10 100 100 90 Carrizozo....................... 80 58 67 53 / 5 90 100 90 Ruidoso......................... 76 55 64 48 / 10 90 100 90 Capulin......................... 71 53 61 49 / 0 90 80 90 Raton........................... 74 53 64 50 / 0 90 90 90 Springer........................ 76 54 65 51 / 0 100 90 90 Las Vegas....................... 72 53 61 49 / 5 100 90 90 Clayton......................... 79 60 68 56 / 0 70 90 90 Roy............................. 76 57 64 53 / 0 100 90 90 Conchas......................... 85 63 73 58 / 0 100 90 90 Santa Rosa...................... 81 61 68 57 / 0 90 90 90 Tucumcari....................... 86 63 76 58 / 0 90 90 90 Clovis.......................... 85 63 76 59 / 5 80 90 90 Portales........................ 87 64 78 61 / 0 80 90 90 Fort Sumner..................... 85 63 75 59 / 0 80 90 90 Roswell......................... 87 63 79 60 / 0 80 90 70 Picacho......................... 83 60 74 55 / 0 80 90 80 Elk............................. 83 57 74 52 / 5 90 90 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late Tuesday night for NMZ201>211-213-214-216>221-224>226-241.

Flood Watch from this evening through late Tuesday night for NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.