textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Friday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, hail, heavy downpours, and a risk of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars.

- Some storms over west central and northwest areas will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 106 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Lighter southwesterlies aloft will prevail over NM today with a weak upstream trough slowly taking shape offshore of southern CA. The return flow at the surface was modeled to usher in higher dewpoints this morning over southeastern NM, and this got a premature jump thanks to deep outflows from storms in west TX. Dewpoints have already climbed to the 40s and 50s over our southeastern zones, and these will hold, if not gain a few more degrees through dawn as surface winds turn a bit more easterly in that southeastern quadrant of the forecast area. The moisture will mix out slightly into the afternoon, but a soft dryline will likely hold into afternoon, stretching from the Sacramento mountains northeast toward Union and Quay counties. This should keep surface dewpoints hovering in the upper 30's to low 40's along and southeast of the dryline this afternoon, sufficient moisture for high-based cumulus that will grow into weak showers and thunderstorms. High resolution CAM's all initiate storms in Lincoln county near the wildfire burn scars, but forecast soundings paint a larger threat of downburst winds rather than problematic rainfall due to such high downdraft CAPE (600 to 1800 J/kg). While a couple of storms may produce a couple tenths of an inch of rain, the gusty winds will likely have more impact this afternoon with the outflow potentially stirring up more dust and accelerating northwestward through a few southern gaps. Surface dewpoints will not rise much elsewhere today, but geopotential heights will keep rising, allowing temperatures to warm up another couple degrees, and this will yield additional high-based cumulus along the Continental Divide into the Rio Grande where some weak virga showers are possible through the early evening.

A more robust low layer moisture advection scenario shapes up tonight as the return flow pushes higher dewpoints farther into NM. Widespread 40's to 50's dewpoints will move over the eastern half of NM and also into central areas via the lower to middle Rio Grande valley. The moisture is not modeled to mix out through Tuesday afternoon, and dewpoints may even keep rising with PWATs also surging, generally at 0.8 over the Rio Grande and upwards of 1.0 inch in the far eastern plains. The new-found moisture combined with warm temperatures will lead to convective initiation over the central mountain chain of NM Tuesday afternoon before cells propagate into the Rio Grande valley and toward the Continental Divide. Into the overnight, the focus for convection will shift toward the eastern plains with a potential MCV being modeled over northeastern NM by a few model members. Our weak upstream upper trough over southern CA will give a light south southwest wind aloft over NM on Tuesday, just enough to present marginal wind shear profiles for stronger to severe convection through Tuesday night. With all CAM's painting a QPF bulls eye over the Lincoln county wildfire burn scars, a Flash Flood Watch for Tuesday is looking almost inevitable.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 106 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Tuesday's storms will send out moist outflows west toward the AZ border into Wednesday morning. After Tuesday night's nocturnal convection over the eastern zones and potential MCV, the eastern plains may stay rather stable and blanketed in debris clouds through early Wednesday afternoon. This would put the high terrain along and west of the central mountain chain as the first to destabilize Wednesday with convective initiation seeming to favor this area first. However, model QPF is quite noisy with just scattered to numerous airmass thunderstorms over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, mostly shifting toward eastern zones again Wednesday night while the southern CA trough slides over the Baja peninsula as a very weak closed low. At any rate, the western fringe of the crop of storms would likely be of a drier variety with less efficient rainfall rates compared to the eastern half of NM.

There are still large uncertainties with the track and speed of the Gulf of CA low. It is still projected to lift northeastward, beginning Thursday, then passing over NM Friday or Saturday with the ECMWF and Canadian runs being the quicker solutions. Low layer moisture would remain in place and ready to recycle for daily rounds of storms while the low is crossing, but as it passes to the east a drier and more subsident flow would follow with a quick reduction in rain chances. Consequently, minimal POPs are in the forecast by Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Clear skies are in place across northern and central New Mexico with VFR conditions. However, thunderstorms in far west Texas sent out some gusty winds that made it all the way into southeastern New Mexico. These gusts are starting to settle, and should drop below 20 kt by 2 AM MDT / 0800UTC. A few high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon, mostly along and east of a KSRR to KTCC line with the Sacramento mountains being the most likely to observe activity. These showers and storms will produce minimal to low rainfall with gusty downburst winds being the main concern (40 to 50 kt possible directly underneath or near any dying showers/storms).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wind speeds aloft will retain their southwesterly component today with similar speeds while yet another weak lee-side surface trough develops east of the Sangre de Cristos this afternoon. Light to moderately breezy surface/20ft winds will be observed by the afternoon, and temperatures will warm another couple to a few degrees. Very low afternoon RH of 5 to 15% will be common with slightly higher readings in the east central plains where a few weak showers or dry thunderstorms will struggle to develop.

A considerable increase in moisture is still slated for Tuesday and Wednesday via return flow. This will lead to a significant increase in wetting storms and humidity while temperatures reduce a few degrees. The favored area for wetting storms still appears to cover the central mountain chain eastward. In contrast, most storms will be less efficient at rainfall production from the Rio Grande toward the Continental Divide. While low layer moisture is forecast to surge toward the AZ border into Wednesday, many areas west of the Continental Divide will unfortunately have low chances for measurable rainfall due to fewer, drier storms with higher lifting condensation levels and more opportunity for sub-cloud evaporation. This will keep a threat of new fire ignitions from lightning across western NM zones. A similar shower and thunderstorm pattern will persist into Thursday with the coverage decreasing some Friday, and more-so into Saturday before a drier, but still relatively light, westerly flow sets in for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 90 51 90 57 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 86 43 86 45 / 0 0 10 20 Cuba............................ 84 51 83 51 / 0 5 20 30 Gallup.......................... 84 43 85 48 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 83 49 82 51 / 0 0 30 20 Grants.......................... 87 52 85 52 / 0 5 30 30 Quemado......................... 86 51 83 51 / 0 0 50 10 Magdalena....................... 86 59 81 55 / 0 5 70 40 Datil........................... 84 54 80 52 / 0 5 70 20 Reserve......................... 91 49 90 49 / 0 0 20 5 Glenwood........................ 95 51 94 52 / 0 0 20 0 Chama........................... 79 44 78 43 / 0 0 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 84 61 79 57 / 0 10 50 40 Pecos........................... 85 53 77 50 / 0 10 80 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 52 77 50 / 0 0 50 30 Red River....................... 78 44 71 42 / 0 0 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 78 46 71 43 / 0 5 90 50 Taos............................ 85 51 80 49 / 0 5 60 40 Mora............................ 84 52 73 50 / 0 5 90 60 Espanola........................ 91 57 87 55 / 0 5 50 40 Santa Fe........................ 84 60 79 56 / 0 10 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 82 54 / 0 10 60 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 67 87 61 / 0 5 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 63 88 58 / 0 5 60 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 62 90 58 / 0 5 60 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 63 88 60 / 0 5 50 50 Belen........................... 94 60 90 56 / 0 5 60 50 Bernalillo...................... 93 63 88 60 / 0 10 60 50 Bosque Farms.................... 93 59 89 55 / 0 5 60 50 Corrales........................ 93 63 90 60 / 0 5 60 50 Los Lunas....................... 93 60 89 56 / 0 5 60 50 Placitas........................ 89 64 84 60 / 0 5 60 50 Rio Rancho...................... 92 63 88 59 / 0 10 50 50 Socorro......................... 97 65 92 61 / 0 5 70 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 79 55 / 0 5 70 50 Tijeras......................... 90 56 83 52 / 0 5 70 50 Edgewood........................ 90 56 81 52 / 0 5 70 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 54 82 50 / 0 5 80 60 Clines Corners.................. 85 55 76 51 / 0 5 90 60 Mountainair..................... 89 55 81 50 / 0 5 80 60 Gran Quivira.................... 87 56 80 52 / 0 5 80 60 Carrizozo....................... 90 63 84 58 / 10 5 80 60 Ruidoso......................... 84 57 76 54 / 30 10 90 60 Capulin......................... 82 50 73 47 / 0 5 70 50 Raton........................... 88 51 77 50 / 0 5 70 50 Springer........................ 89 53 78 52 / 0 5 70 60 Las Vegas....................... 86 54 74 51 / 0 5 90 70 Clayton......................... 90 57 81 54 / 0 10 70 60 Roy............................. 88 55 77 52 / 0 10 70 60 Conchas......................... 95 60 83 56 / 0 10 70 80 Santa Rosa...................... 92 59 80 54 / 0 10 70 80 Tucumcari....................... 97 63 88 57 / 5 10 70 80 Clovis.......................... 95 62 88 58 / 10 20 50 80 Portales........................ 96 62 89 57 / 10 20 40 80 Fort Sumner..................... 94 61 85 56 / 0 10 70 80 Roswell......................... 97 64 90 61 / 5 10 50 80 Picacho......................... 91 59 83 56 / 30 10 80 70 Elk............................. 91 57 83 54 / 30 20 80 70

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.