textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- A monsoon moisture plume will increase over the area from late Thursday into the middle of next week, resulting in an uptick in daily rounds of storms and threat of localized flash flooding. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the moderate to high risk of heat-related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The 596dm H5 high has migrated far east of the region, centered over KY/TN, with NM now underlying a SW/NE upper level pressure gradient with a deepening 542dm H5 low off the southern BC coast. Much drier air aloft has pushed over the state, highlighted by a PWAT that has fallen to 0.82" on the ABQ 18Z UA sounding. Thus, much of the attempted CI across the higher terrain is stunted by dry air intrusion. Hi-res CAMs do show some isolated successful CI moving eastward off the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mts. This may yield a stray shower or isolated thunderstorm capable of reaching near Roswell late this afternoon and early evening. After a calm night tonight into Thursday morning, the leading edge of the next monsoon plume begins to push northward into southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Scattered storms developing over the southwest and south-central mountains will have a better chance to develop, generally tracking SW to NE. Late afternoon storm activity mainly threatening gusty and erratic winds will push into the north-central and portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley, including the ABQ metro. Friday sees a similar pattern to Thursday. However, despite the continued uptick in PWATs to the 1.10" to 1.25" range, leftover convective broken debris cloud cover from Thursday's activity will lessen diurnal heating and destabilization. This looks to lower the strength potential for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Nevertheless, showers and storms that do develop will favor initiation over the high terrain before moving SW to NE.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Saturday begins the long term period with the dome of high pressure migrating back west over MO/KS with a large section stretching back over NM. The proximity of the ridge will keep monsoon moisture at the surface with PWATs still elevated, alongside slower steering flow and storm motions. Convection Saturday afternoon will again favor development over the high terrain with secondary convection favoring outflow boundary collisions over nearby highland and valley locations of central and western NM. Any of the stronger storms will threaten locally heavy rainfall and flooding in poorly drained areas.

Sunday and Monday see a similar pattern to afternoon storms with faster storm motions closer to the Four Corners region thanks to the encroaching H5 closed low moving ashore the PacNW Sunday before ejecting eastward over ID/MT Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday see the western periphery of the H5 become more dominant over NM. This will keep daily rounds of afternoon storms favoring initiation over the high terrain with slower storm motions over surrounding lower elevations late day and evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR prevails with light to modest afternoon breezes. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will have a difficult time getting going. The east slopes of the Sacramento Mts have the best chance and have maintained a PROB30 mostly focused on the possibility for erratic gusty winds reaching KROW late this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

No fire weather concerns through the next week. Today will see drier conditions with an uptick in moisture and increased humidity recoveries returning Thursday and into next week. Daily rounds of afternoon storms will again favor initiation over the high terrain, with a SW to NE storm motion favored Thursday and Friday. Slower storm motions will be favored Saturday and beyond as the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure spreads over NM from the east. Gusty and erratic wind gusts emanating from afternoon thunderstorm activity Thursday and Friday will threaten areas from the middle Rio Grande Valley northward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 59 88 61 87 / 5 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 44 85 46 85 / 0 0 20 30 Cuba............................ 54 83 56 83 / 0 5 20 30 Gallup.......................... 52 84 53 83 / 0 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 51 81 52 80 / 0 40 30 60 Grants.......................... 54 85 55 83 / 0 40 40 60 Quemado......................... 55 82 55 81 / 5 40 30 70 Magdalena....................... 59 84 59 82 / 5 30 40 60 Datil........................... 55 80 55 79 / 0 60 40 70 Reserve......................... 54 88 54 86 / 5 30 40 50 Glenwood........................ 58 93 58 91 / 5 20 40 40 Chama........................... 48 78 50 78 / 0 0 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 59 81 61 80 / 0 5 20 40 Pecos........................... 56 85 58 84 / 0 0 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 82 54 81 / 0 0 10 30 Red River....................... 45 73 47 72 / 0 0 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 36 79 40 78 / 0 5 10 50 Taos............................ 50 85 53 84 / 0 0 10 20 Mora............................ 51 84 53 83 / 0 5 5 50 Espanola........................ 57 89 59 88 / 0 0 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 60 85 62 84 / 0 0 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 88 59 87 / 0 0 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 68 91 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 92 65 91 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 94 64 93 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 92 67 91 / 0 0 20 20 Belen........................... 63 93 63 91 / 0 5 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 65 93 66 92 / 0 0 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 61 92 62 91 / 0 0 20 20 Corrales........................ 65 93 66 92 / 0 0 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 63 92 63 91 / 0 0 20 20 Placitas........................ 64 90 65 89 / 0 0 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 65 92 66 91 / 0 0 20 20 Socorro......................... 68 95 67 93 / 5 5 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 86 60 85 / 0 0 20 30 Tijeras......................... 62 87 62 85 / 0 0 20 30 Edgewood........................ 57 88 57 87 / 0 5 10 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 90 55 89 / 0 5 10 50 Clines Corners.................. 59 87 59 86 / 0 0 10 40 Mountainair..................... 58 88 58 87 / 0 0 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 58 88 59 86 / 0 0 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 64 91 65 90 / 0 10 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 58 84 58 83 / 0 40 10 70 Capulin......................... 55 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 51 89 55 88 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 52 91 55 91 / 0 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 53 87 57 86 / 0 0 5 20 Clayton......................... 64 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 57 91 61 90 / 0 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 64 99 68 98 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 63 93 66 93 / 0 5 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 68 99 70 99 / 0 0 5 20 Clovis.......................... 69 99 69 99 / 10 10 5 10 Portales........................ 70 100 70 99 / 10 10 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 68 99 69 98 / 10 0 10 10 Roswell......................... 71 101 71 100 / 10 5 10 5 Picacho......................... 64 94 64 93 / 10 30 10 40 Elk............................. 60 92 61 91 / 5 40 10 50

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.