textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms can not be ruled out on Tuesday across eastern NM.

- There is a low to moderate (30-40%) risk for burn scar flash flooding in and near Ruidoso Monday afternoon through Monday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Outflow boundary from west Texas MCS continues to shift westward across eastern NM. There is a moderate to high chance it will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain early this morning. A breezy gap wind would then develop in the Rio Grande Valley, but it is not expected to be as strong as last nights east wind in the ABQ area. Upper level ridging will strengthen over NM today. Low level moisture should mix out further east today, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still occur across eastern NM. The difference from recent days will be the lack of shear and very little forcing, thus storms will be less organized and severe weather is not expected today. There still could be gusty winds with any shower or thunderstorm, however. Meanwhile, across western and central NM, enough mid level moisture will be present for another round of virga showers/sprinkles. These, too, will bring erratic wind gusts this afternoon given deep inverted-V sounding profiles.

It continues to look like beneficial rainfall will impact much of northern and central NM Monday through Tuesday. A weakly closed low will shift eastward across SoCal and western AZ on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of the system will allow moisture will increase at all levels across NM. Showers and thunderstorms will begin across western NM where the strongest forcing will exist ahead of the storm system Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will then expand to the Central Mountain Chain through Monday afternoon, with a few storms also developing across the eastern plains. Models indicate by late Monday afternoon and early evening, precipitation will be focused along and near the Rio Grande Valley, but there will still be scattered precipitation elsewhere. Thunderstorms across western and central NM should wane as the atmosphere stabilizes and becomes moist adiabatic. This will allow beneficial rain to prevail into the evening. With PWATs increasing to between 0.8 and 0.9 inches across the Rio Grande Valley late Monday afternoon, there's a chance that the 00Z Tue ABQ sounding could see a record PWAT. As the upper low shifts toward the Four Corners late Monday night, precipitation will shift or become more focused along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, particularly after 9pm Monday. Precipitation will persist across eastern NM through at least 6am Tue or so before waning, albeit temporarily. Thunderstorms should gradually wane with time but may not completely diminish by early Tuesday morning across eastern NM.

Though the main disturbance will cross the area Monday night, a baggy trough will remain over and west of NM on Tuesday afternoon. Weak disturbances within the flow will allow for showers and thunderstorms to redevelop Tuesday afternoon. Though most storms should favor eastern NM, storms may be as far west as the ContDvd. The amount of storm coverage will depend on how quickly the atmosphere recovers from the overnight convection and how quickly the cloud cover scours out. Assuming this occurs, there will be a chance for severe storms across eastern NM. 0-6km bulk shear ranges from about 15kt across northeast NM to around 30kt across southeast NM, and the greatest instability is modeled mainly south of I-40 near/east of the Central Mtn Chain. Thus, if severe storms occur, they will be favored across the east central and southeast plains.

Precipitation amounts will vary greatly across the area. If any area gets skunked, areas around Farmington or Glenwood would be most likely. Many areas should see at least a tenth to a quarter of an inch, but those under the stronger thunderstorms, especially across eastern NM, could see well over an inch of rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually come to an end Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, a dry slot rounding an upper level low over the Great Basin will punch into western and central NM. Strong mixing will allow surface dewpoints to drop into the teens by the afternoon. Breezy south to southwest winds are also expected in this area. The moisture will not mix out across eastern NM, thus isolated to scattered storms remain forecast there. A similar story looks to be on tap for Thursday and to some extent Friday, with drier and breezy conditions west of the central mountain chain, and low level moisture sloshing back and forth across the east. However, confidence is low on storm coverage beyond Wednesday. The pattern becomes murkier by Saturday, but currently looks relatively quiet.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, although with the development of VFR cigs. Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening will be high-based and produce strong/erratic wind gusts, but are not forecast to impact TAF sites at this time. Showers and isolated storms will move north along the NM/AZ border Monday morning and may impact KGUP after 15Z with gusty winds and lower VFR cigs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days, though elevated conditions are anticipated around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Very dry conditions will prevail today across central and western NM, with several hours of single digit RH near and just west of the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. However, enough mid level moisture will be in place for virga or sprinkles this afternoon. Given the dry low levels, these showers will cause gusty and erratic winds. Isolated to scattered storms will also develop this afternoon across eastern NM. Storms in this area will not be as robust as recent days, but erratic wind gusts will still be a concern. Widespread wetting precipitation remains on tap for Monday through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, dry and breezy conditions will return to central and western NM, while low level moisture remains positioned across the east. Low confidence exists Friday into the weekend, but drier (though less breezy) conditions look to remain across western and central NM, while moisture may continue to slosh around the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 86 53 79 50 / 0 0 30 40 Dulce........................... 82 44 78 44 / 5 5 40 60 Cuba............................ 81 49 74 43 / 5 5 40 80 Gallup.......................... 82 46 71 40 / 0 5 70 40 El Morro........................ 79 47 67 42 / 10 10 70 60 Grants.......................... 83 47 72 41 / 10 10 70 70 Quemado......................... 80 50 70 43 / 10 10 70 40 Magdalena....................... 81 56 71 48 / 5 5 70 80 Datil........................... 79 51 68 44 / 10 10 80 70 Reserve......................... 85 46 77 40 / 5 20 60 20 Glenwood........................ 89 47 81 43 / 0 30 60 20 Chama........................... 74 41 72 41 / 10 10 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 78 56 76 51 / 5 5 40 70 Pecos........................... 81 48 76 45 / 10 10 50 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 46 74 47 / 10 10 50 60 Red River....................... 70 39 64 39 / 20 10 70 70 Angel Fire...................... 73 35 69 37 / 20 10 60 80 Taos............................ 80 47 78 46 / 0 5 50 60 Mora............................ 76 47 73 46 / 20 10 50 80 Espanola........................ 85 52 83 51 / 5 5 30 60 Santa Fe........................ 81 53 77 50 / 5 5 50 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 52 80 48 / 0 5 50 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 62 79 55 / 0 5 60 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 60 80 53 / 0 0 50 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 58 82 52 / 0 0 50 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 58 80 53 / 0 0 50 70 Belen........................... 90 55 82 49 / 0 0 50 70 Bernalillo...................... 89 58 82 53 / 0 0 50 80 Bosque Farms.................... 89 54 81 48 / 0 5 50 70 Corrales........................ 89 57 81 51 / 0 0 50 80 Los Lunas....................... 89 54 81 48 / 0 0 50 70 Placitas........................ 85 60 79 54 / 0 5 60 80 Rio Rancho...................... 88 59 80 53 / 0 0 50 70 Socorro......................... 92 61 82 55 / 0 0 60 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 57 74 50 / 5 5 70 80 Tijeras......................... 83 56 76 50 / 5 5 70 80 Edgewood........................ 82 53 77 49 / 5 5 60 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 45 78 43 / 10 5 50 70 Clines Corners.................. 80 51 74 46 / 10 10 60 70 Mountainair..................... 83 53 75 47 / 0 0 60 80 Gran Quivira.................... 82 51 75 46 / 0 0 60 80 Carrizozo....................... 85 58 78 52 / 5 0 60 80 Ruidoso......................... 79 54 71 48 / 10 5 70 80 Capulin......................... 76 47 76 45 / 20 20 20 40 Raton........................... 81 46 80 46 / 20 10 20 50 Springer........................ 82 47 81 48 / 20 10 30 70 Las Vegas....................... 79 49 75 48 / 20 10 40 70 Clayton......................... 84 54 84 52 / 30 20 30 30 Roy............................. 81 52 79 49 / 20 10 30 70 Conchas......................... 89 57 87 54 / 10 10 40 70 Santa Rosa...................... 86 55 84 52 / 10 5 40 70 Tucumcari....................... 91 58 88 54 / 10 10 50 70 Clovis.......................... 88 56 87 54 / 20 20 30 70 Portales........................ 90 57 88 54 / 20 20 30 70 Fort Sumner..................... 89 57 87 53 / 0 5 50 80 Roswell......................... 92 61 91 57 / 0 0 20 80 Picacho......................... 86 56 83 51 / 5 5 40 70 Elk............................. 84 53 80 48 / 5 5 40 70

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.