textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 554 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Slow moving thunderstorms will threaten flash flooding on recent burn scars and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area and Seven Cabins burn scars this afternoon and Wednesday.

- Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms over eastern NM will threaten frequent lightning, severe gusts, and large hail this afternoon and early evening. - Scattered virga and isolated dry thunderstorms over west- central NM and Gila NF will threaten strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts thru Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Convective initiation has already begun along the Sacramento Mts and areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Locally heavy rainfall totaling 0.50" to 1.25" have already fallen over the Ruidoso area burn scars. Flash flood warnings have already been issued and this threat will continue through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. The scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and north of I-40 this hour are tapping into healthy low-level return flow from the Gulf providing 2000-3500 K/kg of SBCAPE across much of eastern NM. Modest 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35kts has and will continue to allow these cells to organize into supercells threatening frequent lightning, severe gusts, and large hail. These two areas from the Sacramento Mts and northeastern NM are expected to expand and congeal over east-central and southeastern NM late today and this evening. Meanwhile, only modest low-level moisture has pushed into south-central NM and up toward the southwestern mountains. A subtle and modest upper level trough over southern AZ that is providing much of the upper level triggering for the aforementioned thunderstorm activity over eastern NM will also aide in dry thunderstorm development along the Continental Divide mainly from Mt. Taylor southward. This activity will mainly threaten dry downburst winds and lightning that could blow some dust around as well in portions of southwestern and west-central NM stretching into the Rio Grande Valley from ABQ southward. These gusty winds pushing into the Santa Fe and ABQ Metros this evening are expected to primarily be southeasterly to easterly by the evening, dominated from outflow from convection east of the Sandia/Manzano Mts.

Tonight will feature a slow decay of shower and thunderstorm activity through eastern NM into early Wednesday morning. There may be some low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog over these portions, dependent upon mid to upper level cloud cover as well. Nevertheless, the aforementioned outflow winds will push increased low level moisture westward to and past the Continental Divide highlighted by Td's increasing into the 40s and 50s. This will spread convective activity to and east of the Continental Divide and even to the AZ border along and south of I-40. Slow steering flow will allow for long residence times for thunderstorms over any one location, which will allow for locally heavy rainfall threatening flooding issues over poorly drained areas. This will include the Santa Fe and ABQ metro areas and their associated arroyo systems during the late afternoon and evening hours. Recent burn scars will again be at risk, namely the Ruidoso area and Seven Cabins burn scars, prompting an issuance of another Flood Watch for Wednesday. The one saving grace here is weaker shear aloft will limit the lifespan for any one updraft. Secondary convective activity through the late afternoon into Wednesday evening will mainly be along colliding outflow boundaries favoring areas of central and east-central NM. This will again slowly wane through Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thursday begins the long term similar to today and Wednesday, however with a slow intrusion of drier air into western NM. This will spread further into central NM and the Rio Grande Valley Friday and Saturday bringing a step down in afternoon thunderstorm activity to end the work week each day. Much of Friday and Saturday's thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain as a result. Weak steering flow is also expected to persist, allowing for locally heavy rainfall threatening flooding impacts over poorly drained areas or areas having already seen heavy downpours earlier in the week. Recent burn scars in Lincoln County will also remain at risk, but at a step lower relative to Tuesday and Wednesday.

Sunday into early next week sees a building ridge of high pressure over NM with a deepening troughing pattern along the Pacific Coastline. Numerical model guidance resolves varying amounts of low- level moisture intruding beneath the high into NM for next week. This is lowering the forecast confidence for how much daily afternoon thunderstorm activity there will be during the 6-10 day period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Clusters of storms in eastern NM will slowly make their way eastward this evening, dropping in intensity and becoming more showery after 03Z. Damaging outflow wind gusts and hail will continue to be a threat in the eastern plains through the evening hours. These storms have pushed a strong outflow boundary through the gaps of the central mountain chain, with gusty east/southeast winds impacting KABQ. Winds are trending lower, but will likely increase again after sunset, before decreasing again in the early morning hours. Patchy MVFR cigs may develop in portions of eastern NM early tomorrow morning, but confidence is low and coverage will likely be limited.

Scattered to widespread storms will focus over central and eastern NM tomorrow afternoon, but coverage will be higher across western NM when compared to today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The main fire weather concerns through the next 7 days concern isolated to scattered dry lightning potential along and west of the Continental Divide this afternoon threatening new fire starts. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity along and east of the central mountain chain will threaten localized heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. There is a high potential for flash flooding on recent burn scars, notably over Lincoln County. Gusty outflow winds are also expected to push through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening, gusting to 25 to 40 mph from Santa Fe to ABQ to Socorro. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms favoring the eastern half of NM while drier conditions with some potential for virga showers and dry thunderstorms continues through the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 58 89 54 91 / 0 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 83 41 86 / 5 50 5 5 Cuba............................ 52 77 47 83 / 20 40 20 10 Gallup.......................... 49 84 46 86 / 5 30 5 5 El Morro........................ 50 79 47 82 / 10 50 20 10 Grants.......................... 50 81 47 85 / 30 50 20 10 Quemado......................... 49 81 49 83 / 20 60 20 10 Magdalena....................... 54 77 54 79 / 50 70 30 10 Datil........................... 50 76 50 79 / 30 70 20 30 Reserve......................... 48 86 47 87 / 5 60 20 50 Glenwood........................ 51 91 50 90 / 5 50 20 60 Chama........................... 44 75 40 78 / 5 60 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 57 74 53 79 / 20 70 40 30 Pecos........................... 50 73 46 80 / 40 80 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 74 47 79 / 20 70 20 10 Red River....................... 41 65 39 70 / 20 80 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 43 68 39 74 / 30 90 30 40 Taos............................ 50 76 46 81 / 20 70 20 10 Mora............................ 49 69 45 78 / 50 80 50 40 Espanola........................ 56 81 52 87 / 20 60 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 56 74 52 80 / 30 70 40 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 77 50 83 / 30 60 30 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 82 59 86 / 30 60 40 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 84 56 87 / 30 50 40 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 86 56 90 / 30 50 30 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 84 57 88 / 30 40 30 0 Belen........................... 55 86 54 89 / 40 40 40 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 84 57 89 / 30 50 30 0 Bosque Farms.................... 55 85 53 89 / 40 40 30 0 Corrales........................ 59 85 57 90 / 30 50 30 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 85 54 89 / 40 40 30 0 Placitas........................ 59 79 57 85 / 30 60 40 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 84 57 88 / 30 50 30 0 Socorro......................... 60 88 59 89 / 50 40 40 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 76 52 81 / 40 70 40 5 Tijeras......................... 54 77 52 82 / 40 60 40 5 Edgewood........................ 52 77 49 83 / 40 60 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 77 47 83 / 40 60 50 20 Clines Corners.................. 50 71 48 78 / 40 70 60 20 Mountainair..................... 50 77 49 81 / 50 60 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 51 76 50 79 / 60 60 60 20 Carrizozo....................... 58 80 57 80 / 60 50 60 40 Ruidoso......................... 53 72 52 74 / 60 70 60 80 Capulin......................... 48 68 45 77 / 50 50 20 20 Raton........................... 50 73 47 81 / 40 60 20 20 Springer........................ 52 73 48 81 / 50 60 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 51 69 48 78 / 60 70 60 40 Clayton......................... 54 74 52 81 / 70 50 50 5 Roy............................. 52 70 50 78 / 70 60 50 20 Conchas......................... 56 76 54 84 / 70 70 70 10 Santa Rosa...................... 54 73 52 81 / 60 60 70 20 Tucumcari....................... 58 78 55 85 / 70 70 60 20 Clovis.......................... 59 77 56 82 / 70 60 60 50 Portales........................ 59 78 56 83 / 70 60 60 60 Fort Sumner..................... 57 77 55 82 / 70 60 70 30 Roswell......................... 60 80 59 83 / 80 50 60 20 Picacho......................... 55 77 54 80 / 70 60 50 60 Elk............................. 54 77 53 80 / 60 70 60 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ226.