textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 402 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather persists with numerous high temperature records challenged through the middle of this week.

- Precipitation chances will make a long awaited return on Christmas Eve across far western NM and then spread east into north central areas on Christmas Day. Rain is expected below 9,000ft, with any notable impacts from snow relegated to the peaks of the northern and western mountains.

- More seasonable temperatures will prevail toward the end of the week and through the weekend, with potential for more unsettled weather conditions. spread east into north central New Mexico on Christmas Day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

An anomalously strong upper high over northern MX will move east into TX today and then continue into LA on Tuesday. The upper high will expand north into NM today and increase pressure heights, with 500mb heights forecast near daily record values per the KABQ sounding climatology. This will correlate with one of the warmest December days on record and high temperatures that will be 20-30 degrees above average. Pressure height will come down a little on Tuesday as the upper high moves further east and away from NM, giving way to increasing southwest flow aloft as a potent west coast trough takes shape. However, highs will still be a solid 15-25 degrees above average on Tuesday and daily records will be challenged once again.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Increasing southwest flow aloft and Pacific moisture advection are forecast Tuesday night through Christmas Eve, with PWATs rising to near daily record values. A top-down moistening process will begin, but the only notable forcing will come from orographics as the west coast trough remains just offshore. The airmass will remain relatively warm, despite evaporative cooling associated with the top-down moistening process, with snow levels staying high around 9,500-10,500ft. Precipitation chances will favor the western mountains initially on Christmas Eve and then spread east into north central NM on Christmas Day. However, snow levels will be at ski resort level and only the highest mountain passes, like Bobcat Pass, have the potential to be impacted by accumulating snow. A deepening lee side trough will bring windy conditions to northeast and north central NM on Christmas Day, but speeds are forecast to remain below advisory criteria at this time. PWATs will drop off significantly on Friday, but strong southwest flow aloft and lee side troughing will persist. There is still significant model spread beyond Friday with regard to the timing and track of the inbound upper level trough/low. Relative higher forecast confidence on more seasonable temperatures from Friday through the weekend given lower pressure heights associated with the troughing pattern, but low forecast confidence on precipitation and the timing of a backdoor cold front.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 402 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, although with occasional VFR cigs in the form of high clouds. Winds will be light today, except at KTCC where westerly gusts will hit up between 25-30kts this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Dry conditions with record warmth will persist through Tuesday before increasing southwest flow aloft brings Pacific moisture advection, increasing humidity and introducing chances for wetting precipitation to western and north central NM on Wed/Thu. Lee side troughing will bring windy conditions to northeast NM from mid through late week, but humidity will be too high to produce critical fire weather conditions. Vent rates will be a mixed bag of poor to good across the area, with poor ventilation favoring the lower elevations due to stubborn near-surface temperature inversions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 63 32 65 40 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 61 24 64 29 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 62 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 67 24 66 32 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 65 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 68 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 69 31 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 70 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 66 34 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 74 33 73 35 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 55 28 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 62 38 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 63 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 50 32 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 57 22 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 61 24 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 66 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 66 29 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 39 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 35 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 38 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 69 29 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 69 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 69 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 68 36 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 69 31 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 37 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 72 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 38 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 66 34 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 26 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 66 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 36 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 66 41 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 34 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 69 31 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 73 27 72 29 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 70 35 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 39 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 33 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 32 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 36 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 41 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 79 39 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 80 34 77 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 35 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 39 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 77 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.