textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - There is a moderate risk of heat induced illness through lower elevation areas where highs in the 90s to low 100s will be each day. Localized major heat risk likely on Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures peak.

- There is a moderate risk of scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms producing strong gusty and erratic winds thru western and central NM Tuesday thru Friday.

- There is a low (<20%) chance of isolated strong to severe storms in northeastern NM each afternoon and evening Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A flattened ridge is stretched out across the desert southwest today, with weak and very dry westerly flow prevailing on the north side of the ridge over central and northern NM. It will be extremely dry out there today with humidities dropping below 5% in many areas. It will also be hot, with highs in the 90s and 100s in lower elevation locales and 80s in the mountains. It is the summer solstice today so the sun will be very powerful with UV indices of 12 to 13. A backdoor cold front will push south and westward tonight, creating brief north to northeast wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph with its passage in the eastern plains. The front will likely squeak through the gaps of the central mtn chain right around sunrise, creating a brief east/southeast breeze during the morning hours in east Albuquerque and Santa Fe.

The flattened monsoon ridge will intensify and shift northward Monday and the increasing subsidence will translate to slightly warmer temperatures for areas that were not impacted by the backdoor frontal passage the night before. Hi-res models are showing storms initiating along the Front Range of Colorado early Monday afternoon, then moving southeastward through the afternoon into the evening. The environment will be favorable for potentially long-lived supercells and one or two of these storms may end up clipping Union and/or Colfax counties in the late afternoon or evening hours. Further south, subsidence will be a limiting factor preventing any convection from developing.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The monsoon ridge will continue to amplify on Tuesday as it nudges northward. 500 mb heights around 598 dam could make it one of the hottest days of the year so far in many areas and Heat Advisories will likely be needed for much of the southern half of the CWA. Moisture will begin to creep northward into southwest NM and it should be sufficient to spark a few high based showers and storms over the high terrain. Any convection would almost certainly be dry with sfc RH around 10-15% and 700mb dewpoint depressions of 20-25C. Storms across the eastern plains could be slightly wetter although most global models are keeping any convection Tuesday afternoon off to the east over the TX Panhandle.

The strength of the upper level high comes down 1 dam or 2 on Wednesday, helping temperatures drop a couple degrees in most areas. Another backdoor frontal passage across the northeast could help to cool temps there a few more degrees. Moisture will be more abundant on Wednesday thanks to mid-level moisture from the west and low level moisture from the east. Convection coverage will trend up as a result, although anything that develops west of the central mountain chain will still be of a drier nature and pose a threat of starting additional fires. Thursday and Friday look to be the most active days of the week in terms of storm coverage with scattered to even widespread storms. Typical monsoon hazards will be in play each day with lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds being the main hazards. Damaging wind gusts will be of particular concern on Wednesday with DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg along and west of the Rio Grande Valley and scattered to widespread coverage of showers and storms.

Dry westerly breezes will scour out the moisture over the weekend, with fire weather and heat becoming the primary hazards once again. Models have been trending slightly deeper with the approaching trough early next week, which will likely translate to stronger winds across central and northern New Mexico.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A light west breeze along with clear skies will prevail around the region this afternoon. A backdoor cold front will push south and westward overnight, reaching the central mtn chain around 09Z. Isolated showers and a few storms may develop in the far northeast corner of the state late this evening through the overnight hours. Gusty winds are likely with its initial passage across the eastern plains, with gusts of 20 to 30 kts in locations such as KTCC, KCVN, and KROW between 06Z and 15Z. MVFR cigs may develop in the eastern plains in the wake of the cold front around sunrise Monday (10-30% chance).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

It is very dry around central and northern New Mexico this afternoon, with single digit relative humidity prevailing areawide. Fortunately, winds are limited to a light breeze and this has helped to keep fire activity low thus far this afternoon. The hot and dry weather will continue into Monday and Tuesday around central and western New Mexico, although winds will continue to remain light as the monsoon ridge builds northward into the desert southwest.

A backdoor frontal passage will push into eastern NM tonight, replenishing moisture and potentially sparking a few showers and storms in the northeast corner of the state overnight. Isolated storms will favor northeast NM again on Monday, with coverage expanding southward on Tuesday.

Scattered to potentially widespread storms are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, with drier storms favored in the west and wetter storms favored in the east. Dry lightning will be of particular concern in west-central and northwest NM on Wednesday. Drier conditions return over the weekend as west winds trend stronger. Models have been trending stronger with the trough over the Great Basin early next week, which will likely translate to more wind over central and northern New Mexico. The hot and very dry weather will contribute to further drying of fuels and negate and small improvements made from mid-week showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 93 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 44 92 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 52 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 89 46 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 49 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 92 49 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 89 51 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 92 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 89 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 95 47 98 51 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 98 53 101 57 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 83 45 86 45 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 53 90 54 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 51 88 54 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 78 44 79 45 / 0 0 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 82 40 82 42 / 0 0 20 0 Taos............................ 89 50 90 50 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 88 51 86 51 / 0 0 10 0 Espanola........................ 96 56 98 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 90 58 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 55 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 65 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 62 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 60 100 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 62 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 100 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 60 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 57 99 58 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 99 60 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 58 99 59 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 104 66 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 92 55 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 51 95 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 89 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 93 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 93 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 97 64 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 89 60 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 88 52 79 51 / 0 30 20 10 Raton........................... 93 53 85 52 / 0 20 20 10 Springer........................ 94 55 86 53 / 0 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 91 54 88 54 / 0 0 10 0 Clayton......................... 96 60 80 58 / 0 40 20 20 Roy............................. 93 59 83 56 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 101 63 91 61 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 97 61 92 60 / 0 0 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 102 64 90 63 / 0 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 102 63 95 65 / 0 0 10 0 Portales........................ 104 63 97 65 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 101 63 95 64 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 106 67 102 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 100 65 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 97 62 96 59 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.