textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 439 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact much of central and northern New Mexico through Sunday morning with snow, wintry mix, frigid temperatures, blowing snow, and treacherous travel conditions. Widespread impacts to travel and infrastructure are expected, especially along and east of the central mountain chain.

- Temperatures will continue to plummet in eastern New Mexico, with cold air spreading into central New Mexico Saturday through Monday morning. An extended period of bitterly cold temperatures will increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia, with the highest threat in the eastern plains.

- Dry weather returns early next week as temperatures struggle to climb back up to near seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 104 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...

A pair of features are encroaching upon NM, leading to deteriorating wintry weather over northern and central parts of the state. A cut- off Pacific low has trekked southward and is about to turn more to the east and cross the Baja peninsula. This has been pumping a fetch of subtropical moisture over the Mexican mainland and southwestern states with ensemble situational awareness tables still showing PWATs of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal, particularly over the borderland. This will yield expanding precipitation over NM through the afternoon and evening. Snow levels over much of the western half of the state will start out quite high (8,000 to 9,000 ft in southwestern to south central areas) and will be stubborn to recede tonight as warm, moist advection keeps the surface dewpoints above freezing in many locations below 7,000 ft. A much different scenario is unfolding over the eastern half of NM, as the Arctic front pushes in, laying a shallow layer of frigid air east of the central mountain chain.

Temperatures are already plunging in the east, and as isentropic upglide and seeder clouds aloft expand, more snow, freezing rain, and sleet will transpire into tonight. The warm nose aloft over east central NM can be seen on forecast soundings at around 730 mb with the NAM and a couple of other higher resolution CAMs showing more indications of exceeding the 0 degree C isotherm by 1-3 degrees tonight. This would suggest hydrometeors (snowflakes) would have potential to melt and then refreeze before or upon hitting the surface. However, the GFS and several other CAMs, including the HRRR, are not as aggressive with the warm nose, and looking at overall NBM probabilities of ice, there has been a downward trend, but a bit of an expansion westward of the low probabilities toward the central mountain chain. All this to say, freezing rain and sleet probabilities are low, confined to the southeast quarter of NM, and overall ice accumulation will largely stay at less than 0.10 inch with snow being the predominant p-type tonight.

Into Saturday, the upper low will be crossing the Gulf of CA and moving into Sonora, MX by late afternoon while the Arctic airmass remains entrenched over eastern NM with cold air damming along and east of the central mountain chain. Large scale ascent and warm, moist advection will keep precipitation swaths stretching northeastward from the low into the southern half of NM. By this time the polar jet will also be ushering another continental polar shortwave toward the Four Corners, and this will begin generating additional batches of precipitation over west central to north central NM. Overall, somewhat of a lull or periodic break in the precipitation is modeled late Saturday morning with both upper level features reinvigorating precipitation coverage and intensity Saturday afternoon into the evening. The Baja low will get absorbed as a weaker, but still very moisure-laden, open wave over far west TX and SE NM Saturday night. Meanwhile, the northern stream shortwave will be digging southeastward into NM, and this is modeled a bit quicker than 24 hours ago. The convergence of these upper features will continue to keep a widespread area of precipitation going Saturday night into Sunday morning with healthy precip rates. Any presence of an elevated warm nose is modeled to disperse in the east, and western areas will observe falling snow levels, so p-type should be all snow Saturday night into Sunday morning, keeping this time frame a high-impact window. Low temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning will be bitterly cold with many western zones dropping into the single digits and teens while eastern areas drop a couple to a few more degrees.

Snow will taper off from northwest to southeast through late Sunday morning as the northern stream shortwave makes its way into west TX. skies will clear in many areas with some of the northern mountains and northeast highlands retaining a few batches. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will run 10 to 30 degrees below normal with most of the western zones managing the mid 30's and the eastern zones staying below freezing.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 104 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Into Sunday night and Monday morning, a trailing shortwave trough is now being modeled with the polar jet ushering it into CO, northeast NM, and the neighboring panhandles of OK/TX. This feature does have agreement and consensus that it will host enough cold air and baroclinicity to produce some dynamics and light precipitation through Monday morning. Low POPs (40% or less) are in northeastern zones to account for this with QPF projected to remain light at a few hundredths of an inch or less. The bigger impact for Sunday night and Monday morning will be the widespread harsh temperatures with lots of single digits and sub-zero readings for overnight lows.

By the daytime Monday, the northwest flow aloft will back a bit more westerly while drying. A lee-side surface trough is then advertised over eastern CO with a southwesterly surface wind over most of the NM plains. While this would suggest warming temperatures, much of the available energy, adiabatic or diabatic, would go into melting snow. This will make the temperature forecast tricky for many eastern zones Monday with only modest or negligible gains in the west as well.

The flow aloft retains a west northwest direction into Tuesday with an upstream ridge that is slated to cross NM into Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will be slow to warm up through this time frame with daytime highs still remaining below normal. The warm up will remain especially stunted over areas of east central NM where snowpack lingers. Thereafter, the next upstream perturbation has a wider variance on possible tracks. None appear to be significant precip makers, but they could alter temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

IFR to airport minimum ceiling and visibilities are present across eastern NM behind an Arctic front and will remain through the entire TAF period. Light snow will be common across northeast and east central NM with sleet and freezing rain mixing in on the caprock and lower Pecos River Valley across southeast NM. Meanwhile west of the central mountain chain, valley rain will increase in coverage with snow above 7000 feet. This rain and snow will result in MVFR to periods of IFR conditions in heavier shower activity. Snow could mix in at times across valley locations, including KABQ. A break in precip could result in low end VFR ceiling across the middle and lower RGV mid Saturday morning before the next round of precipitation moves in from the southwest late Saturday morning. Snow along and east of the central mountain chain, rain in the lower elevations of the middle and lower RGV, and snow in the highlands will bring back widespread IFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are foreseen through the next several days. A major winter storm is bringing an abrupt change to the weather pattern today into Saturday with a couple to several inches of snow accumulations forecast, especially over the mountains and along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures are rapidly plummeting with frigid Arctic air continuing to settle into eastern NM through Saturday. Colder air then overtakes remaining areas into Saturday night and Sunday. Snow will wane Sunday morning, but a widespread snow field (especially over the eastern half of NM) will be slow to melt going into the middle of the week as temperatures struggle to warm up. Beneficial soil and fuel moisture should come from the snow, and no critical or widespread wind concerns are foreseen into the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 32 43 17 37 / 80 70 20 0 Dulce........................... 26 39 5 33 / 90 90 50 10 Cuba............................ 26 36 8 32 / 90 80 60 10 Gallup.......................... 26 41 9 37 / 80 80 50 5 El Morro........................ 29 38 10 34 / 80 80 70 10 Grants.......................... 26 42 12 38 / 80 80 70 10 Quemado......................... 31 40 12 33 / 80 80 70 20 Magdalena....................... 34 45 21 36 / 80 80 80 30 Datil........................... 31 42 16 33 / 80 80 80 20 Reserve......................... 32 48 16 43 / 80 80 80 30 Glenwood........................ 35 51 21 49 / 90 80 80 30 Chama........................... 23 33 4 26 / 90 90 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 27 33 14 31 / 90 90 70 30 Pecos........................... 18 27 7 27 / 90 90 80 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 25 33 8 26 / 80 80 80 20 Red River....................... 15 26 2 20 / 80 80 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 8 31 -8 23 / 80 80 80 30 Taos............................ 23 34 7 29 / 80 80 70 20 Mora............................ 16 29 6 29 / 80 80 80 20 Espanola........................ 21 35 8 35 / 90 80 70 20 Santa Fe........................ 24 30 11 28 / 90 90 80 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 22 31 9 30 / 90 90 80 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 39 16 35 / 90 90 80 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 33 40 17 38 / 90 80 80 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 29 42 10 40 / 90 80 80 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 40 17 38 / 90 80 80 20 Belen........................... 34 47 18 40 / 90 80 80 30 Bernalillo...................... 30 39 13 38 / 90 90 80 20 Bosque Farms.................... 31 44 13 40 / 90 80 80 30 Corrales........................ 31 40 14 38 / 90 80 80 20 Los Lunas....................... 33 45 17 40 / 90 80 80 30 Placitas........................ 30 36 14 34 / 90 90 80 30 Rio Rancho...................... 32 40 16 38 / 90 80 80 20 Socorro......................... 37 49 23 42 / 80 80 80 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 26 32 11 30 / 90 90 80 30 Tijeras......................... 29 33 12 31 / 90 90 80 30 Edgewood........................ 23 29 8 29 / 90 90 80 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 18 29 5 30 / 90 80 80 30 Clines Corners.................. 15 21 6 24 / 90 80 80 30 Mountainair..................... 26 34 7 30 / 90 90 90 40 Gran Quivira.................... 26 36 7 29 / 90 90 90 40 Carrizozo....................... 34 41 13 32 / 90 80 90 50 Ruidoso......................... 25 33 10 30 / 90 90 90 70 Capulin......................... 4 16 3 26 / 60 50 60 10 Raton........................... 7 18 3 28 / 60 60 70 20 Springer........................ 8 20 5 31 / 60 50 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 12 20 5 29 / 80 80 70 20 Clayton......................... 3 12 6 28 / 80 70 70 20 Roy............................. 6 14 5 27 / 80 70 80 10 Conchas......................... 8 17 6 32 / 80 80 90 20 Santa Rosa...................... 11 17 6 28 / 90 80 90 30 Tucumcari....................... 6 16 4 29 / 80 80 90 20 Clovis.......................... 10 16 6 25 / 80 80 90 40 Portales........................ 9 19 5 27 / 80 80 90 40 Fort Sumner..................... 11 20 8 27 / 90 80 90 30 Roswell......................... 22 26 11 26 / 90 90 90 40 Picacho......................... 21 27 9 31 / 90 90 80 40 Elk............................. 21 31 8 33 / 90 90 80 70

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ202>204-206- 208.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday for NMZ210>218- 221>224-229-232>234-237.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ227-228-230- 231.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM MST Sunday for NMZ207-219-225-241.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for NMZ226-235-236- 238>240.