textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 505 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026 - There is a moderate risk of heat induced illness across lower elevation areas where highs peak in the 90s to low 100s each day. Localized major heat risk exists today and Wednesday.

- There is a moderate risk of scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms producing gusty and erratic winds in western and central NM Tuesday through Friday.

- Dry and windy weather returns this weekend, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread across northwest New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The upper level high is centered near or just east of El Paso early this morning. The high should top out at 598dam at H5 this afternoon which will allow temperatures to soar above 100 degrees at many lower elevation locations and into the 90s across the mountains. Heat Advisories are already in effect for the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of south central and southeast NM and will not be altered.

Otherwise, a moisture boundary is pushing westward across eastern NM early this morning and low clouds will continue to develop across northeast and far east central NM behind it. As winds veer around to the southwest later this morning, these low clouds will erode and much of the moisture will mix back out. May see a storm or two across eastern Lincoln or southwest Chaves county near the moisture boundary, but widespread convection is not anticipated. There will also be modest mid level moisture that rounds the high into southwest NM, potentially resulting in sprinkles and gusty winds across the Southwest Mountains. This evening, an outflow boundary will back into northeast NM and a few storms may develop along it. If a storm forms, it could be severe, but most guidance suggests storms will stay to the NE of NM, much like this past evening. Nonetheless, the boundary will continue to sag southward across the plains and westward to the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain through sunrise Wednesday. Couldn't rule out a stray shower overnight behind the boundary, but confidence is low.

The upper high will weaken to 595dam on Wednesday and will sink slightly southward. Meanwhile, mid level moisture will continue to round the upper high across NM. However, with deep inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, wetting precipitation will be scarce across western and central NM. Rather, mainly dry storms with gusty and erratic winds will be the rule through the afternoon. PWATs will increase through the evening, thus better chances for measurable precipitation exists through the evening as light showers linger through midnight. A different story is on tap for eastern NM. The aforementioned boundary is not expected to completely mix out in the afternoon. Rather, low level moisture and east or southeast low level flow will remain in place with northwest flow aloft. Expect storms to develop along or just east of the Central Mountain Chain and as they shift eastward, they will encounter plenty of instability and 40-50kt of effective shear allowing them to become strong or severe. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but large hail will also be possible. Strong to severe storms will be most likely between the late afternoon hours and midnight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

On Thursday, the upper high will weaken a bit more and flatten. This will allow for a more direct pathway for Pacific moisture to stream into the state. PWATs increase to around 0.8-0.9 inches areawide so there will be better chances of wetting precipitation, though storm motions will be rather quick limiting amounts at any one location. As convective temperature is reached, showers and thunderstorms could develop just about anywhere, but should have a slight preference to central and western NM as downsloping should inhibit storms a bit across the east. However, another boundary will be lingering across far northeast NM, and this could be a focus for strong to severe storms in the aftn/eve. Can't rule out a strong storm elsewhere, but the favored spot for strong to severe storms will be NE NM. Thursday should be the day with the highest precipitation coverage.

Westerly flow will prevail over NM on Friday and drier air will begin to move into the state. However, storms tend to like moisture gradients, so another round of scattered storms is expected. Storms will be moving pretty quickly to the east, so any one location won't get much precipitation. Storms may produce gusty and erratic winds, however.

Moisture mixes out over the weekend, and drier and windier conditions will return setting the stage for fire weather concerns. Models are at odds with how fast moisture returns early next week. On Monday, the EC keeps dry air in place and the GFS shows return flow across eastern NM and storms by Monday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs have developed across far northeast and east central NM early this morning. These low clouds will persist through approximately 16Z before eroding. Breezy west to northwest winds with gusts up to 25kt will develop early this afternoon and persist through the evening across western and central NM. Meanwhile, there is a low chance of thunderstorms developing across southeast NM this afternoon and again across northeast NM late this evening. If storms form, they may be severe with gusty winds and large hail. Otherwise, virga and perhaps a dry thunderstorm will develop across the Southwest Mountains this afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds may result from virga showers.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Hot, dry and breezy conditions will prevail today, though a few virga showers/sprinkles across the West Central Basin and Range (Zone 109) may result in gusty and erratic winds this afternoon. Wednesday through Friday will bring the best chances of precipitation. On Wednesday, mid level moisture will increase across western and central NM, resulting in dry storms with gusty and erratic winds. As PWATs increase through the evening, measurable precipitation will become more likely with shower and thunderstorm activity, though it will remain light. Meanwhile, strong to severe storms will impact eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, increasing moisture will allow for measurable, if not wetting, precipitation areawide though storm motions will be quick, limiting amounts at any one location. Scattered storms will return again on Friday, though drier air will begin shifting into the state from the west. Storm motions will remain quick toward the east, so again, precipitation amounts will be limited. Drier and windier conditions return over the weekend. In fact, critical fire weather conditions are expected both days. This could be especially problematic after several days with lightning. Any precipitation that occurs Wed-Fri will likely have little, if any, impact on fuel status (the dry vegetation). Thus, it's likely there will be some lightning started fires that make their presence known and start to spread over the weekend, especially across the northwest. Moisture will return next week, though confidence is low that it will come back Monday or wait til later in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 97 61 94 62 / 0 0 10 20 Dulce........................... 92 49 89 52 / 0 0 10 20 Cuba............................ 92 58 89 57 / 0 0 10 30 Gallup.......................... 94 56 92 56 / 0 0 20 30 El Morro........................ 92 57 90 55 / 0 0 20 30 Grants.......................... 95 56 93 55 / 0 0 20 30 Quemado......................... 92 58 91 58 / 0 5 20 30 Magdalena....................... 95 66 92 64 / 0 5 20 10 Datil........................... 92 60 90 59 / 0 10 20 20 Reserve......................... 96 54 97 54 / 10 5 20 10 Glenwood........................ 101 60 102 60 / 0 0 20 10 Chama........................... 86 48 83 49 / 0 0 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 92 64 89 62 / 0 0 20 30 Pecos........................... 92 57 90 57 / 0 0 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 54 85 56 / 0 0 20 20 Red River....................... 79 46 76 48 / 0 0 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 83 41 81 44 / 0 0 20 30 Taos............................ 92 54 90 56 / 0 0 10 20 Mora............................ 89 53 86 54 / 0 0 30 30 Espanola........................ 98 60 95 61 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 93 62 91 62 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 59 94 59 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 70 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 67 99 65 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 65 100 63 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 66 98 65 / 0 0 5 10 Belen........................... 103 64 102 64 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 100 65 99 65 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 101 63 100 62 / 0 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 100 66 99 65 / 0 0 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 102 63 101 62 / 0 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 97 67 96 66 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 100 67 99 66 / 0 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 104 73 103 72 / 0 0 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 94 64 94 63 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 95 61 95 61 / 0 0 5 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 97 57 96 57 / 0 0 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 93 58 91 57 / 0 0 10 20 Mountainair..................... 94 61 94 61 / 0 0 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 95 62 95 61 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 99 68 97 67 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 90 62 89 61 / 0 0 20 10 Capulin......................... 92 54 83 53 / 0 20 50 30 Raton........................... 96 54 89 52 / 0 20 30 30 Springer........................ 98 56 90 55 / 0 10 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 93 57 89 57 / 0 10 20 20 Clayton......................... 97 60 86 61 / 5 20 20 30 Roy............................. 95 59 87 58 / 0 10 30 30 Conchas......................... 104 64 95 63 / 0 10 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 102 64 95 63 / 0 10 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 104 67 95 65 / 0 10 10 40 Clovis.......................... 101 66 97 66 / 0 5 10 20 Portales........................ 102 67 99 66 / 0 5 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 103 67 98 66 / 0 0 5 20 Roswell......................... 105 70 104 70 / 5 10 5 10 Picacho......................... 99 65 97 64 / 20 0 20 10 Elk............................. 95 63 94 62 / 10 10 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ207-219>221-225-226-238>240.