textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A risk of rapid fire spread will expand across most areas this weekend, especially on Sunday.

- Damaging wind gusts will impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday night through Sunday.

- Most areas will experience a hard freeze Sunday night, including within the Rio Grande Valley.

- A strong area of high pressure will move over the region going into the middle of next week resulting in record warmth for March.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 128 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

This morning the polar jet is quasi-zonal entering southern BC and Alberta from the eastern Pacific with a shortwave carving out near the WA state border. This perturbation will rapidly advance toward the central Rockies today and tonight as the jet quickly gains a meridional component with a segment of 170 kt winds projected on the backside of the wave. West northwest winds aloft over NM are initially going to be fairly light this morning, but speeds will be ramping up by late afternoon with a broad lee-side trough deepening (down to ~990 mb) over eastern CO, and western NE and KS. Despite a thickening canopy of cirrus clouds, temperatures will continue to warm today, only deepening the boundary layer and vertical mixing. This will all combine to initiate a late afternoon surge in wind speeds with widespread breezy to windy conditions through sunset with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common (locally higher over the northern mountain peaks). These speeds will be too low to warrant a Wind Advisory for the daytime today, but they will contribute to an elevated to critical fire weather threat, given such low dewpoints and humidity. Many areas will soar into the 70's and 80's today with daytime high temperatures running about 12 to 22 degrees above normal.

The aforementioned jet streak on the backside of the rapidly deepening trough will plunge toward CO tonight into early Sunday morning. This will cause ridgetop level winds to keep intensifying overnight, and 700 mb speeds are modeled to reach 50 to 70 kt over much of the highland areas of NM. With speeds of 40 to 60 kt at 700 mb also juxtaposed over the Continental Divide, the High Wind Watch will be expanded to Mount Taylor, the Zuni mountains, and southwestern ranges (Magdalena, San Mateo, and portions of the northern Gila) for early Sunday morning through the afternoon. While ridges and peaks begin to get buffeted by the winds tonight into Sunday morning, even lower elevation valleys will stay breezy with periodic nocturnal gusts.

Both the Pacific and backdoor segments of the cold front will spill into NM after daybreak Sunday with significant cold air advection. However, given the anomalously warm starting point, Sunday's highs will only drop below average by 5 to 10 degrees over most of the northern half of the forecast area. Along with the cold air advection, tight packing of the isobars will yield strong to severe winds over much of the forecast area as the dominant component turns more northerly. At this point, much of the High Wind Watch looks to likely be upgraded by subsequent shifts with a legitimate and high chance (60 to 80%) of gusts reaching 70 mph along and just east of the central mountain chain. A plethora of Advisories will also be needed to surround the warnings. Blowing dust will be a big concern, as will critical fire weather, as model consensus still advertises remarkable dry air advection with dewpoints tumbling several degrees below zero (F). Synoptic models have backed off on any precipitation for far northeastern zones Sunday morning when the front arrives, and CAMs are also not showing anything with very high dewpoint depressions winning out.

The trough will have deepened into an upper low that will move over the upper Midwest by Sunday night and early Monday morning. The surface high will continue settling southward, crossing the OK/TX panhandles before moving over the Permian Basin. This will keep a cooler airmass and enhanced surface gradient aligned along the central mountain chain of NM (subdued cold air damming) with a short opportunity for an easterly wind to sneak into gaps and canyons toward the Rio Grande. Any gap/canyon winds would likely be brief and only breezy Sunday night. The bigger story will likely be the starkly colder temperatures with a hard freeze catching prematurely budding and blooming vegetation by surprise.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 128 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The surface high will settle farther southeastward into the daytime Monday, allowing surface winds to veer southerly in the plains with moderately breezy speeds by the afternoon. Temperatures will still cool a few degrees more in the east central to southeastern zones due to the effects of this surface high. The northwest flow aloft is modeled to still be relatively stiff (700 mb speeds of 15 to 40 kt) on Monday. With a secondary area of surface high pressure over the Four Corners, gusty northwest winds will develop, mainly in northwestern to central zones. Despite the northwesterly wind component, most of these northwestern to central zones will be able to gain 5 to 10 degrees above Sunday's high temperatures.

The extended weather pattern from Tuesday through the end of the work week can be summarized a bit more succinctly with less dynamic day-to-day changes. An unseasonably strong upper ridge (500 mb heights near 590 decameters) will build over southern CA Tuesday before sliding over the lower CO river basin and strengthening more into Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday (500 mb heights peaking between 593 to 595 decameters by Wed/Thu). A much lighter wind field will of course be present within the ridge, so this will bring a welcome respite from the gusty conditions, but the stage is being set for widespread above average warmth with moderate to high (40 to 80% chances) for record-breaking highs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

High cirrus clouds will steadily increase overnight into Saturday morning, but conditions will remain VFR. Winds will begin to increase late Saturday afternoon from the west as a potent trough of low pressure approaches. Gusts of 20 to 35 kt will be common in the late afternoon to early evening (14/2100UTC - 15/0200UTC). Winds aloft will keep strengthening Saturday night while surface speeds in some valleys and lower elevations decrease after dark. This will create low level wind shear Saturday night with mountain wave activity developing to the lee (east) of the mountain ranges, particularly the central mountain chain of New Mexico.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Confidence is high that critical wind speeds will be met over the central to northeastern highlands and adjacent northeastern plains this afternoon, but it appears that speeds will be more marginal over the north central, northwestern, and west central zones. There will still be a surge up in wind speeds late this afternoon into the early evening as the Pacific trough and associated speed max aloft approach. Therefore, will cancel the Fire Weather Watch for these latter zones with the expectation that an hour or two of critical conditions will be met very late in the afternoon. This will allow us to focus our message on the bigger and more impactful day, Sunday. Otherwise, today's well above normal temperatures (by 12-22 degrees) and very low dewpoints will easily yield widespread low humidity of 5 to 10%. Winds aloft keep increasing overnight, so ridgetops and peaks will stay gusty with poor RH recovery (20 to 35% in most zones) through Sunday morning.

During the daytime Sunday, the Pacific and backdoor segments of the front will bring several degrees of cooling, but contrary to most conceptual models, widespread critical fire weather will take hold with strong to severe winds and a continuation of extremely low humidity due to significant dry air advection. Northeastern zones are still projected to cool into the 40's and 50's, and that might offer a slight mitigation to fire spread. However, in remaining areas temperatures will not be as cool and could carry fire more readily with widespread gusts of 40 to 60 mph for most zones. Higher gusts near 70 mph will even be found over and just east of the central mountain chain Sunday. Will keep the Watch going for Sunday, but current trends would suggest a high likelihood of upgrading on subsequent shifts.

After a much colder night and a hard freeze for most Sunday night through Monday morning, critical conditions are not forecast to be as widespread into the afternoon Monday. Areas with pesky gusty winds would tend to stay over northwestern and perhaps some central highland zones where a couple to a few hours of gusts to 35 mph will be possible. These conditions are more marginally critical compared to Sunday, and would not be as widespread or as long in duration.

A welcome reduction in wind speeds will come Tuesday through the end of next week as an unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure grows over southwestern states. Despite the lower wind speeds, temperatures will soar well above normal with daily rounds of extremely low afternoon humidity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 74 39 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 70 32 53 14 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 71 36 49 19 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 75 34 56 16 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 68 38 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 34 57 18 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 41 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 47 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 44 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 36 69 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 79 38 78 30 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 63 28 47 15 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 70 43 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 71 40 53 14 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 36 44 13 / 0 0 10 0 Red River....................... 57 29 33 11 / 0 0 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 63 25 42 1 / 0 0 10 0 Taos............................ 73 33 49 10 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 72 37 49 13 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 79 45 58 17 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 43 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 43 57 17 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 48 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 46 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 46 63 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 49 60 27 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 82 46 67 22 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 81 49 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 82 44 64 21 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 82 48 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 46 65 22 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 48 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 48 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 51 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 44 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 73 44 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 75 45 54 19 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 42 57 9 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 72 40 54 14 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 76 44 59 18 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 46 60 16 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 76 47 67 24 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 48 62 21 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 73 23 38 5 / 0 0 20 0 Raton........................... 77 28 47 6 / 0 0 20 0 Springer........................ 79 36 52 4 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 41 53 10 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 82 33 46 11 / 0 0 20 0 Roy............................. 79 40 53 8 / 0 0 5 0 Conchas......................... 87 48 63 12 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 51 64 15 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 88 44 62 14 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 88 48 64 17 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 88 50 67 14 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 87 51 68 14 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 91 50 76 22 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 84 54 71 20 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 83 50 70 17 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for NMZ104-123-125.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for NMZ206-208-212>215-218-219-221>224-226>240.