textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely each day through Monday, with coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe in central and eastern New Mexico each afternoon.

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars each day through Monday. There is a low risk of off scar flash flooding in eastern New Mexico Saturday through Monday.

- Drier and hotter weather returns around the middle of next week. Critical fire weather conditions may develop in northwest New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday (moderate confidence).

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 204 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The backdoor front has pushed westward to the Continental Divide and will continue its trek westward tonight, reaching the Arizona border around sunrise. Dewpoints have increased in the wake of the front and this surface moisture will aid in the development of showers and storms this afternoon. Low clouds across eastern NM may delay convective initiation, although most models are showing sfc winds veering around to the south/southeast late morning, which should the clouds break up. Hi-res models are showing storms developing right over the Ruidoso area burn scars between noon and 1PM today, then quickly moving off the terrain to the northeast in the mid-afternoon. Since rainfall rates have the potential to be heavy (1-1.5"/hr), there is a threat of burn scar flash flooding, but most hi-res models are taking these storms off the scar quite quickly after initiation. Both the HREF and RRFS LPMM are showing a bullseye of 1- 2.5" just south of the burn scar, indicating the realistic max precipitation within the vicinity of the scars. Since probs of >0.5" over the scars themselves are low (<15%), opted to not issue a Flood Watch.

The severe threat on Friday will focus over northeastern NM where optimal wind shear and instability overlap the most. That being said, dry microbursts will be a concern along the Continental Divide and in the Rio Grande Valley. The lack of moisture in the mid-levels will inhibit any strong updrafts from developing in these areas, but that may not matter given the strong DCAPE (up to 1000J/kg).

The biggest question mark is in the southeast plains today. Models are showing very strong instability (LIs < -7C and sfc based CAPE over 2500 J/kg). If storms moving west off the Sacramento mtns tap into the stout instability here, they could intensify, but they may struggle to reach this area. Moisture advection will continue Friday night into Saturday morning, surging PWATs another 0.1-0.2" in most areas. A weak westerly shortwave will interact with the moisture in place to once again generate scattered showers and storms, with slightly higher coverage in the southwest and western mtns compared to Friday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Another backdoor front will intrude from the northeast Saturday night, replenishing moisture across eastern NM. This will increase the coverage of precipitation and set the stage for a more active day on Sunday. While storm chances still focus along and east of the central mountain chain, low precipitation chances will extend westward all the way to the Arizona border. This also looks to be the day with the best combination of instability and shear, particularly in central New Mexico along the leading edge of the frontal boundary.

Strengthening northwest flow will begin to usher in a drier airmass Monday, with decreasing rain chances from west to east. Monday is looking like a prime day for severe weather in eastern NM, with the potential for supercells to develop off the Sangre de Cristo mountains and move into the northeast plains during the afternoon and evening.

Hot and dry conditions will be the story Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures soar to the highest levels of the summer thus far. Per NBM guidance, there is a 14% chance that Albuquerque reaches 100F on Wednesday, with higher chances in eastern NM. The Monsoon High attempts to build in over the region late next week, which could start to bring in some subtropical moisture. Overall forecast confidence remains relatively low beyond Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The backdoor front has pushed westward to the Continental Divide and will continue its trek all the way to the Arizona border by the early morning hours. Gusty east winds are currently focused through the gaps of the central mtn chain, peaking between 06Z and 09Z, then diminishing thereafter. Low clouds with MVFR cigs will develop in the eastern plains after 09Z, pushing westward into the highlands by around 12Z. Most models are showing these clouds dissipating quickly in the morning, but easterly upslope flow clouds delay their dissipation into the early afternoon.

Scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon will favor central and eastern New Mexico. Strong and erratic downburst wind gusts will be the main hazard and could occur anywhere east of the Cont. Divide.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will develop from the Continental Divide eastward, with the potential for a few severe storms in central and eastern NM. Convection along the Continental Divide and along the Rio Grande Valley will generally be of a drier nature, with wetter storms in eastern NM where PWATs will be much higher.

Scattered storms Saturday once again favor eastern NM, but there will be a slight uptick in coverage across the southwest and western mountains. Another backdoor front intrudes from the east Saturday night into Sunday, replenishing moisture and setting the stage for a more active day Sunday with widespread showers and storms areawide.

Drier northwest flow starts to take over early next week, with breezy and dry conditions developing across northwest NM. Critical fire conditions may occur across the northwest Tuesday (moderate confidence) and expand in coverage into central NM on Wednesday. Any rainfall in these areas over the weekend will not be significant enough to result in major fuel improvements. Temperatures will also be rising mid-week, soaring to the highest values of the season thus far.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 95 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 91 48 91 49 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 89 57 89 56 / 10 5 0 10 Gallup.......................... 92 54 89 52 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 89 57 86 55 / 5 0 10 10 Grants.......................... 91 57 90 56 / 10 5 10 10 Quemado......................... 90 58 86 55 / 5 0 10 10 Magdalena....................... 89 64 89 62 / 20 5 20 10 Datil........................... 87 60 85 58 / 10 0 20 10 Reserve......................... 96 53 93 52 / 0 0 30 10 Glenwood........................ 99 52 98 55 / 0 0 5 10 Chama........................... 84 48 84 47 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 87 62 86 61 / 20 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 87 54 89 54 / 10 20 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 55 85 53 / 20 0 20 20 Red River....................... 77 46 76 43 / 20 0 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 81 39 80 43 / 10 10 20 30 Taos............................ 88 53 88 52 / 10 10 10 10 Mora............................ 83 53 86 51 / 30 10 20 30 Espanola........................ 94 59 93 59 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 88 61 89 61 / 10 20 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 59 92 59 / 10 20 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 69 96 68 / 20 10 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 66 97 65 / 10 10 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 63 99 65 / 10 10 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 67 97 66 / 10 10 0 10 Belen........................... 98 62 99 63 / 10 10 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 97 66 98 66 / 20 20 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 97 60 98 61 / 10 10 0 10 Corrales........................ 98 66 99 66 / 10 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 97 61 98 63 / 10 10 0 10 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 66 / 20 20 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 96 67 97 66 / 20 10 0 5 Socorro......................... 100 70 99 68 / 5 5 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 62 91 61 / 20 20 0 10 Tijeras......................... 91 62 92 60 / 20 10 0 10 Edgewood........................ 91 59 93 57 / 10 10 5 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 55 94 54 / 10 10 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 86 57 89 54 / 20 10 5 10 Mountainair..................... 92 59 93 56 / 20 10 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 90 59 92 57 / 20 10 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 64 94 65 / 30 10 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 84 59 87 59 / 60 10 40 20 Capulin......................... 81 53 86 45 / 30 10 10 50 Raton........................... 86 52 90 50 / 30 5 10 40 Springer........................ 87 54 91 51 / 30 20 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 85 56 90 54 / 30 20 20 20 Clayton......................... 86 62 94 52 / 10 30 20 40 Roy............................. 84 58 90 52 / 30 30 20 30 Conchas......................... 92 62 98 57 / 20 40 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 89 60 95 56 / 30 20 40 30 Tucumcari....................... 94 65 99 57 / 20 40 40 40 Clovis.......................... 93 66 98 61 / 10 20 10 50 Portales........................ 94 65 99 61 / 10 20 10 60 Fort Sumner..................... 93 63 97 59 / 20 20 30 40 Roswell......................... 96 67 100 66 / 40 30 20 30 Picacho......................... 90 61 95 60 / 60 10 70 20 Elk............................. 90 59 94 59 / 70 30 70 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.