textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists today and Saturday across far east central and northeast NM.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Monday and Tuesday. Severe storms can not be ruled out, especially on Tuesday across eastern NM.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

A backdoor cold front has pulled-up stationary along a Raton to Las Vegas to near Santa Rosa to near Portales line. The front will act as a focus for convective initiation this afternoon, with potential for a couple strong to severe storms given modeled instability and shear. Much of the northeast plains and portions of the east central plains have been included in the marginal risk area on the SPC day 1 convective outlook. Convection is forecast to follow a normal diurnal downtrend around sunset, expect for more organized storms moving southeast out of CO across Colfax and Union County between 03-06Z per the latest CAMs. The backdoor front will progress west over night and result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV between Santa Fe, Albuquerque and Los Lunas, but with speeds below advisory threshold. An upper level high will begin building over western NM Saturday, bringing some additional warming. Sufficient low level moisture and easterly upslope flow will remain across eastern NM on Saturday for another round of daytime heating triggered convection that will have higher probabilities of going severe near the TX/OK borders where greater instability will reside. The greater shear environment will be across far northeast NM under stronger northwesterlies aloft. All 12Z models show storms following a normal diurnal downtrend Saturday evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

The upper high will peak at around 585dam at 500mb overhead on Sunday, which will be the warmest day of the next seven. Sufficient moisture will remain across eastern NM for isolated late day showers and storms Sunday, but with low severe potential given a lack of shear. The ridge will shift east of NM on Monday and give was to increasing southerly flow and moisture advection ahead of a Pacific low approaching from over SoCal. The models continue to demonstrate solid run-to-run consistency forecasting a fairly widespread wetting (>0.10") rain event, with moderate probabilities (40-60%) for a soaking (>0.25") rain. Precipitation chances will increase late Monday across western NM as the upper low begins to fill and lift northeast into central AZ. Showers and thunderstorms will then move northeast across the area through Tuesday as the upper low opens up and lifts northeast across NM and southern CO. The highest PoPs for central NM will be the Monday night period, when PWATs are forecast to reach up to two standard deviations above normal for the calendar day. A few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out Mon/Tue, especially across eastern NM on Tuesday. A shortwave ridge will follow the departing trough on Wednesday as a potent upper low dives south across the Great Basin. Increasing southwest flow aloft around the periphery of the upper low circulation is forecast to steer a much drier airmass into the state Thu/Fri, along with breezy to locally windy conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at TAF sites through the period. Another round of iso/sct storms is forecast later this afternoon/evening across east central and northeast NM, but will remain well to the north and east of TAF sites. A backdoor front will bring areas of low stratus/fog to east central and northeast NM early Saturday morning. The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ that may approach Airport Weather Warning threshold between 08-14Z Saturday. Otherwise, typical late afternoon/evening gustiness is forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through Tuesday, but there are low probabilities for critical conditions to develop toward the latter half of next week. Warm and dry conditions will persist across western NM through the weekend, with spotty elevated fire weather conditions. Higher humidity and chances for wetting storms will persist across eastern portions of the area through the weekend, but with gradual drying going into Saturday leading to lower storm coverage and a smaller wetting rain footprint. A Pacific low will bring higher humidity and good chances for wetting rainfall Mon/Tue. Warming/drying is forecast for the latter half of next week, with increasing southwest winds introducing the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Thursday will be the windiest day with the greatest potential for critical fire weather conditions, but fuels may not be receptive to rapid spread of fire given a preceding wetting event.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 44 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 77 38 82 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 77 44 80 / 0 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 38 80 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 41 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 40 80 42 83 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 44 78 45 81 / 5 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 50 78 52 82 / 5 5 0 0 Datil........................... 45 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 41 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 44 86 44 89 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 72 37 76 / 5 5 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 51 75 53 79 / 5 20 0 10 Pecos........................... 43 75 44 80 / 5 10 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 72 42 76 / 10 10 5 0 Red River....................... 35 62 35 67 / 20 20 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 31 67 30 72 / 20 20 5 10 Taos............................ 42 76 41 81 / 10 10 0 0 Mora............................ 42 70 43 76 / 20 30 10 20 Espanola........................ 49 80 49 85 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 76 49 81 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 79 48 84 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 82 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 85 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 83 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 86 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 84 55 88 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 49 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 84 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 49 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 81 56 85 / 0 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 83 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 88 57 92 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 77 52 81 / 0 5 0 5 Tijeras......................... 51 79 52 83 / 0 5 0 5 Edgewood........................ 48 79 49 83 / 0 5 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 80 42 84 / 0 10 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 45 75 47 79 / 0 10 5 10 Mountainair..................... 47 79 48 83 / 0 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 73 51 77 / 0 5 0 10 Capulin......................... 40 68 42 76 / 70 50 20 20 Raton........................... 42 73 42 81 / 60 40 20 20 Springer........................ 43 74 43 82 / 60 30 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 43 72 44 78 / 10 30 20 20 Clayton......................... 46 72 49 83 / 70 30 20 20 Roy............................. 45 72 47 81 / 40 30 20 10 Conchas......................... 51 81 51 90 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 50 80 50 87 / 10 10 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 52 81 53 91 / 40 10 20 5 Clovis.......................... 51 82 52 88 / 20 10 10 10 Portales........................ 51 83 53 89 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 51 84 52 90 / 10 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 55 89 57 92 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 81 51 86 / 0 10 0 10 Elk............................. 49 80 49 83 / 0 10 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.