textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms over western and central New Mexico will produce erratic wind gusts and dangerous lightning with localized moderate rainfall amounts today and Sunday.

- Gusty south to southwesterly winds pick up Sunday afternoon mostly through western New Mexico where peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will develop.

- Light rain will turn more spotty into Monday and Tuesday of next week while breezy to windy conditions become more common.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

GOES satellite imagery shows a near ghostly remnants of what is left of TC Rachel being absorbed into the 568dm H5 low off the northern Baja Peninsula. Abundant moisture is being pushed into the Desert Southwest from SoCal to AZ, and into southern NV and UT. Some light showers are trying to reach into western NM this morning, but will not have more appreciable coverage until later this afternoon. Increasing steering flow will also keep these scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms moving quickly to the northeast. Gusty winds and a quick period of light to moderate rainfall will be the most common hazards associated with these passing cells.

Precipitation chances slide back west as the by then fully fused remnant trough of Rachel ejects northward toward another deep large scale synoptic troughing pattern digging down the west coast. Much of the upper level energy and associated large scale forcing will remain west of the area with some expansion of fast moving showers with embedded thunderstorms back east to the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain Sunday afternoon and evening. Stronger winds aloft will try to mix down to the surface across central and western NM, with widespread gusts of 25 to 45 mph expected. Convective downdrafts will be capable of upping those gusts to the 50 mph mark, mostly along and west of the Continental Divide Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Monday begins the long term period with continued rounds of fast moving showers with embedded thunderstorms flowing northeastward across western NM and into the Rio Grande Valley. This continues through Tuesday with a notable dryslot continuing to shutdown precipitation chances along and east of the central mountain chain. Differences begin to arise amongst global numerical model suites with the evolution of the troughing pattern closing off either to one or two distinct low pressure systems over NV and CA. This doesn't have much impact on the forecast sensible weather conditions over NM through Tuesday, but does end up causing large downstream divergences amongst various model runs. Whichever direction the upper low ends up taking, the remnants of Hurricane Simon favor a progression over the TX Big Bend area, clipping southeastern NM Wednesday.

The 12Z GFS, many ensemble means and AI runs of the GFS and ECMWF all favor the H5 closed low opening and being more progressive Wednesday into Thursday, trekking eastward over CO. This setup features a classic Fall cold front sweeping west to east across the forecast area bringing cooler and drier conditions in its wake Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The backdoor portion of the cold front sweeps south and west thru eastern NM thereafter Thursday night into Friday, replenishing low level moisture. The currently less likely scenario advertised by the 00Z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian have the H5 low cutting off and retrograding back toward northern AZ or further west. This brings a surface cold front backing into eastern NM late week further west with higher moisture content behind it advecting in from the southern Great Plains. More widespread precipitation chances break out across mostly the central and eastern NM as a result in this scenario. It's a lower probability scenario at this time, but worth mentioning given the sharp change in forecast weather pattern it would bring.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR with southerly breezes continue through eastern NM as thicker cloud cover and some sporadic shower activity begins to enter western NM late this morning. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will spread thru western NM, reaching the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain late this afternoon and evening. Erratic gusts will accompany this activity and PROB30s are included at central and western TAF sites for this. Shower activity does shift back west Sunday morning, before it is expected to shift back east toward central NM again Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The remnants of what was once TC Rachel and larger scale storm system digging down the Pacific coastline will bring increased rain chances, gusty winds, and moisture to western NM today through Tuesday. Eastern NM looks to stay mostly dry until the remnants of what is now Hurricane Simon moves through the TX Big Bend area, clipping southeastern NM Tuesday night thru Wednesday. Northeastern NM is seeing stronger windier and drier conditions allowing for elevated conditions today and each afternoon thru Tuesday.

Thereafter, current forecast trends favor a sweeping Fall cold front moving thru the area west to east Wednesday into Thursday. A drop in temperatures to near or below average with some moisture behind a cold front backing into eastern NM Thursday night into Friday will be favored. There is a lower chance scenario for much higher moisture and rain chances lingering over most of the state to end next week, so burning interests this far out should stay tuned.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 55 76 53 72 / 60 40 40 10 Dulce........................... 45 71 42 66 / 70 70 90 30 Cuba............................ 50 70 46 68 / 40 40 40 10 Gallup.......................... 49 72 45 68 / 30 50 40 10 El Morro........................ 46 70 43 67 / 30 30 40 10 Grants.......................... 50 73 47 72 / 30 40 30 10 Quemado......................... 50 71 46 69 / 30 20 20 10 Magdalena....................... 54 73 50 73 / 20 20 30 10 Datil........................... 48 69 46 68 / 20 20 30 10 Reserve......................... 50 71 49 69 / 30 80 60 20 Glenwood........................ 55 76 53 74 / 40 80 70 40 Chama........................... 45 63 42 59 / 70 80 90 40 Los Alamos...................... 53 70 51 69 / 30 20 50 10 Pecos........................... 50 72 48 70 / 20 20 60 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 68 46 65 / 30 20 70 10 Red River....................... 41 60 40 56 / 30 20 70 5 Angel Fire...................... 38 67 38 64 / 20 10 50 10 Taos............................ 47 71 45 68 / 30 20 60 10 Mora............................ 47 71 44 70 / 10 10 40 5 Espanola........................ 53 78 51 76 / 20 20 40 5 Santa Fe........................ 54 73 52 70 / 30 20 60 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 75 51 73 / 20 20 50 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 80 58 78 / 20 10 40 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 80 56 79 / 20 10 30 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 82 56 81 / 20 10 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 80 57 79 / 30 20 30 5 Belen........................... 57 81 55 81 / 10 10 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 58 81 57 80 / 20 20 30 5 Bosque Farms.................... 56 81 54 81 / 20 10 30 5 Corrales........................ 58 82 57 80 / 30 20 30 5 Los Lunas....................... 57 81 55 81 / 20 10 30 5 Placitas........................ 58 78 57 76 / 20 20 40 5 Rio Rancho...................... 59 80 57 79 / 30 20 30 5 Socorro......................... 59 83 56 82 / 10 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 73 51 71 / 20 20 50 10 Tijeras......................... 55 75 53 73 / 10 10 40 10 Edgewood........................ 52 76 51 74 / 10 10 40 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 77 49 76 / 10 10 40 10 Clines Corners.................. 52 74 52 72 / 5 10 40 10 Mountainair..................... 53 74 51 73 / 10 10 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 54 73 52 72 / 10 10 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 58 78 59 77 / 5 5 30 5 Ruidoso......................... 53 73 52 72 / 5 10 40 5 Capulin......................... 53 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 48 79 48 78 / 0 5 5 0 Springer........................ 51 81 49 80 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 52 74 50 72 / 5 5 20 5 Clayton......................... 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 54 78 55 78 / 0 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 61 87 62 87 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 83 59 83 / 0 5 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 63 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 59 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 61 87 63 89 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 59 85 61 86 / 0 5 10 0 Roswell......................... 60 89 62 91 / 0 0 30 0 Picacho......................... 57 86 58 85 / 0 5 40 5 Elk............................. 56 82 56 83 / 0 10 40 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.