textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 556 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days.

- Gusty and erratic winds and small hail will accompany isolated to scattered showers and storms each of the next several days. - Above normal temperatures this weekend cool to near to below seasonal averages next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The upper high continues to shift northward today, and will center over SD late this afternoon. The high is elongated back to the southwest with a weak secondary high center over the UT/CO line. This has allowed for deep easterly flow over NM today with PWATs climbing to between 0.75 across NW NM and 1.25 inches across the SE portion of the CWA. Airmass thunderstorms have already developed across much of east central NM. Each individual storm will be short- lived and outflow-dominant and outflow boundary collisions will continue to produce new development. Gusty winds between 45 and 60 mph will be the main concern with storms across eastern NM today. Dry air near and above 500 mb moving in from the northeast will limit development elsewhere, but isolated to widely scattered storms are possible nearly areawide. However, storms outside of east central and southeast NM will not be as robust. They could still produce gusty and erratic winds with outflows, but rainfall amounts will be less. Storms will continue into the evening hours before diminishing in coverage, though a few showers will likely persist through the overnight hours.

On Monday, dry air aloft will continue to rotate around the high and over NM from the NE. This should decrease the amount of airmass thunderstorms over east central NM, but isolated to scattered storms will develop across the southeast. There is also a weak disturbance traveling westward across CO and northern NM which may increase storm coverage across north central and northwest NM slightly. As a whole though, storm coverage should trend downward a bit from today. However, storms will continue to have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds and brief heavy rainfall. Similarly to today, storms will decrease around sunset, though a few showers may linger into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The NAM is particularly aggressive at bringing deeper dry air at mid and upper levels to eastern NM on Tuesday, with other models less bullish. Nonetheless, any storms that develop across eastern NM on Tuesday should be confined to far southeastern portions of the CWA. Rather, scattered storms should favor the northern and western mountains and storm motion will take these storms west or southwestward. Again, gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the rule.

We continue to watch a pair of disturbances that will track westward during the mid to late week period. The first has been rounding the upper high and will continue to do so, and the second is a weak upper low that will develop over southwest TX late Tuesday into Wednesday. Attm, it appears the first disturbance will weaken as it tracks westward on Wednesday and get somewhat absorbed into the low over SW TX. This low is expected to slowly migrate west or northwestward through Friday, before parking over or just south of NM Friday through the weekend. Should this occur, it would mean isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring western and northern NM Wed and Thu while subsidence ahead of the low would limit convection across eastern NM, especially Thursday based on forecast soundings. However, precipitation chances would increase Friday through the weekend areawide as the low moves over/near NM. If the low centers over central NM, precipitation chances would be higher than if it parked near or just south of the NM/MX border (as the upper high over UT would have a greater influence over NM), but it would still be an uptick from what we will have much of this week. Stay tuned. The pattern and forecast may change a bit as we go through the week as these are weak features that were watching.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor eastern and southwest areas this evening. Coverage will become spottier after midnight. On Monday morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage again over southeast areas, and also in the northern mountains. Monday afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and storms will cover the area along and south of a line from Ruidoso to Clovis, the southwest mountains including Glenwood, and the northern mountains westward. Storm motion this evening will generally be toward the west around 10-15 KT, then toward the northwest around 5-10 KT on Monday. Both this evening and Monday afternoon and evening, some of the stronger cells will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Though sub-15% relative humidity values will persist today across northwest NM, that should be the end of sub-15% RH for the rest of the week. Instead, moisture will continue to increase across the west, and daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. Storms will continue to favor eastern areas today, but isolated storms are possible areawide. On Monday, storm coverage will increase slightly across north and northwest NM, while coverage across east central NM will taper off slightly. Storms will move toward the west around 5 to 15 mph today and Monday, sans where outflow boundaries result in erratic storm motions. Storms should favor northern and western NM Tuesday through Thursday, then storm coverage should increase Friday through the weekend as a weak upper level low moves over or near New Mexico. Through Thursday, brief heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main threats with storms. More widespread heavy rain may be in store for Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 69 96 63 95 / 10 20 20 10 Dulce........................... 54 91 52 92 / 10 40 20 30 Cuba............................ 58 86 57 86 / 5 20 20 50 Gallup.......................... 60 91 59 89 / 10 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 58 86 57 85 / 10 5 5 30 Grants.......................... 59 90 58 88 / 5 5 5 20 Quemado......................... 59 87 59 86 / 10 10 10 20 Magdalena....................... 63 86 62 84 / 10 10 5 10 Datil........................... 58 83 58 83 / 10 10 5 10 Reserve......................... 55 90 55 90 / 10 30 10 30 Glenwood........................ 56 92 56 91 / 30 30 30 50 Chama........................... 49 83 50 83 / 5 40 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 63 83 63 84 / 5 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 54 84 54 83 / 10 30 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 84 54 84 / 0 50 20 50 Red River....................... 45 75 45 73 / 5 40 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 40 78 40 76 / 10 30 5 40 Taos............................ 54 86 53 86 / 5 30 20 40 Mora............................ 51 80 52 79 / 20 30 10 40 Espanola........................ 63 92 62 91 / 5 20 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 60 85 60 84 / 5 40 10 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 89 58 87 / 5 20 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 92 66 90 / 5 5 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 93 68 91 / 5 5 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 95 65 93 / 5 5 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 94 66 92 / 5 5 5 20 Belen........................... 64 95 63 94 / 10 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 65 95 66 93 / 5 5 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 62 94 62 93 / 5 5 5 20 Corrales........................ 65 95 65 94 / 5 5 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 62 94 62 93 / 10 5 5 10 Placitas........................ 67 90 67 89 / 5 10 10 30 Rio Rancho...................... 66 94 66 93 / 5 5 5 20 Socorro......................... 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 86 60 85 / 5 5 5 30 Tijeras......................... 60 88 60 87 / 5 5 5 30 Edgewood........................ 59 87 58 86 / 10 10 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 87 54 87 / 10 5 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 56 83 56 82 / 10 5 0 10 Mountainair..................... 58 87 57 86 / 10 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 85 57 84 / 10 5 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 64 87 62 87 / 10 10 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 56 77 55 76 / 10 30 10 30 Capulin......................... 55 82 54 80 / 5 10 0 10 Raton........................... 55 88 55 86 / 10 5 0 20 Springer........................ 55 87 56 86 / 20 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 83 54 80 / 20 10 5 30 Clayton......................... 62 88 61 87 / 5 5 5 5 Roy............................. 60 84 59 83 / 20 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 65 91 64 90 / 20 5 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 63 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 64 91 64 91 / 20 10 5 5 Clovis.......................... 64 88 63 87 / 20 20 20 20 Portales........................ 64 91 63 89 / 20 30 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 66 90 64 89 / 20 20 10 10 Roswell......................... 68 89 66 89 / 30 20 30 30 Picacho......................... 62 84 60 84 / 20 20 20 30 Elk............................. 57 81 56 80 / 30 30 30 40

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.