textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record high temperatures will return today through Thursday with a minor risk of heat-related illness for sensitive groups.

- Westerly winds will gust up to 45 mph on Thursday afternoon along and northeast of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains, where there will also be single digit humidities and a risk of rapid fire spread.

- A blustery backdoor cold front will produce a wind shift and strong northeast crosswinds on the eastern plains Thursday night into Friday, and strong east canyon winds in the central valley late Thursday night through Friday night.

- Isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will pose a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, new fire starts, and blowing dust on Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of the central mountain chain. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will spread to more of the forecast area Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1236 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record breaking warmth will return areawide today through Thursday as a summer-like ridge of high pressure builds back over the forecast area and humidities plummet. The 500 mb pressure height is still forecast to peak around 591 dam over the NM bootheel on Wednesday morning, then high temperatures should peak across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon around 21-28 degrees above 30-year averages. If the Albuquerque Sunport reaches the forecast high temperature of 92 degrees on Wednesday, it will beat the warmest March high temperature record of 91 degrees that the Sunport set just this past Sunday. Multiple other locations may also reach their record warmest March readings Wednesday.

Critical fire weather conditions will develop on Thursday as humidities bottom out in the single digits almost areawide, and as wind speeds strengthen in response to an upper level trough passing eastward over the CO/NM border. Further, a lee-side surface trough south of a ~994 mb surface low on the northeast NM/southeast CO border will help to produce west and northwest wind gusts up to 45 mph along and northeast of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains Thursday afternoon, where the greatest risk of rapid fire spread will exist.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1236 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A gusty backdoor cold front will dive southwestward through the forecast area Thursday night and Friday driven by a 1039 mb surface high on the upper Great Plains and a deepening surface trough off the southwest US coast. There is an increasing likelihood that northeast wind gusts will reach 50 mph on the far eastern plains Thursday night and Friday, and from 40-50 mph below canyons opening into the central valley from Santa Fe southward late Thursday night through Friday and Friday night. A few models forecast wind gusts up to 60 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque Friday night, but given the lack of model agreement confidence is low in that possibility at this time. Cool air advection behind the front will send temperatures plummeting around 25 to 40 degrees across the eastern plains on Friday below Thursday's readings, and a few to 20 degrees farther west. The cooling trend will continue across central and western areas Saturday, when high temperatures will vary from 4 degrees below 30-year averages on the southeast plains to as much as 15 degrees above the averages from Chama to Gallup.

Humidities will also continue to increase mainly over central and western NM Saturday through Monday as the mid-level high pressure center aloft retreats over the Gulf coast and the deepening upper level trough off the southwest US coast gradually exits inland over the state. Driven mainly by the increased Gulf moisture behind Friday's backdoor front, isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms should begin to develop along and west of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening. The upper level trough will then slowly cross from the southwest Sunday through Monday with elevated subtropical moisture that will spread mainly dry thunderstorm chances onto the eastern plains as well. Farther west, models suggest PWATs may only climb up to 0.80" locally Sunday, before trending downward Monday, supporting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with the best chance for any wetting precip in the mountains and along the continental divide Sunday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, high temperatures on Sunday and Monday look to climb around 6 to 16 degrees above 30 year averages.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will be a little gusty this afternoon across central and northwest areas. With high temperatures varying from the 80s to the mid 90s at lower elevations, and from the upper 60s to near 80 in the mountains, numerous high temperature records will be set this afternoon, and density altitude will be an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Widespread critically low humidities are forecast to return today, then minimum humidities will trend downward into the single digits almost areawide by Thursday. As mentioned above, windy conditions will also develop on Thursday with the greatest risk of critical fire weather conditions along and northeast of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains. With this forecast package we are issuing a Fire Weather Watch for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Northeast and Central Highlands, and the Northeast Plains Thursday. However, locally critical conditions are forecast in the North Central Mountains, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, and East Central Plains Thursday afternoon. These zones will probably warrant a fire weather highlight if winds strengthen there in future forecast updates. Moisture with Thursday night's backdoor cold front will cause humidities to climb between 20-29 percent along and east of the central mountain chain on Friday, then over 15 percent almost as far west as the continental divide on Saturday, setting the stage for isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms from the central mountain chain westward Saturday afternoon and evening. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase over the forecast area Sunday and Monday as an upper level trough off the southwest US coast ejects inland, but with PWATs only climbing locally up to 0.80" wetting footprints should generally be on the small side with plenty of dry and gusty thunderstorms remaining in the mix.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 83 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 38 84 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 80 44 85 44 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 83 35 86 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 78 44 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 83 40 87 39 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 82 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 80 48 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 86 38 90 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 41 93 40 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 41 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 55 83 54 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 80 49 85 48 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 44 81 47 / 0 0 10 0 Red River....................... 66 42 71 45 / 0 0 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 73 29 78 32 / 0 0 10 5 Taos............................ 81 38 85 38 / 0 0 10 0 Mora............................ 78 47 82 48 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 86 47 90 47 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 80 53 85 52 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 48 87 48 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 51 94 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 89 45 94 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 88 52 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 89 45 93 46 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 89 50 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 88 45 93 46 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 83 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 87 54 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 56 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 80 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 81 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 41 88 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 79 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 82 53 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 81 51 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 84 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 80 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 80 46 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 83 41 87 43 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 86 42 89 43 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 83 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 86 53 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 86 50 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 93 47 95 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 52 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 93 48 96 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 91 52 96 54 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 92 49 97 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 93 50 96 50 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 94 53 97 53 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 90 55 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 88 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ104-122-123-125.