textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Arroyos, rivers and streams will continue to run high this weekend after recent rainfall. Stay away from river banks.

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times Sunday and Monday mornings. Highest confidence exists near the central higher terrain, protected mountain valleys, and parts of eastern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A 592dm H5 ridge developing over north-central AZ today will drift east into the Four Corners region thru Sunday night. A weak upper level shortwave trough shearing apart over northern MX will help to deepen easterly flow beneath the ridge thru Sunday. A backdoor cold front will enter eastern NM tonight and also reinforce low level easterly flow into central NM. Another round of low clouds and patchy fog may form in the wake of the front along and east of the central mt chain tonight. The latest REFS, HREF, and NBM guidance indicates patchy 5-10% chances of visibility <1 mile with a 10-20% chance of low stratus over parts of the area. East winds will increase below canyons in the RGV near sunrise Sunday then spread to western NM by Sunday afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common thru late afternoon. There may be just enough lift and moisture along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mts for a couple showers as well late Sunday. Another round of fog and low stratus is possible over parts of eastern NM Sunday night. There are similar model probabilities for fog and low stratus. Max temps will be very nice for early October with readings generally near to slightly below normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The H5 ridge will weaken Monday while drifting southeast into NM ahead of an H5 shortwave trough entering the Great Basin. A 50-60kt speed max in association with this trough will slide southeast from northern AZ Monday then into western NM Tuesday and southern NM by Wednesday. Greater mid level moisture and lift with the upper level shortwave trough will increase the chance for showers and storms over the northern and western high terrain Monday thru Wednesday. 12Z models have trended toward slightly greater coverage but chances are still very low. Max temps will remain within +/-5F of normal with light winds outside of any showers.

Extended forecast guidance is still in good agreement building a weak shortwave ridge eastward into NM Thursday and Friday in the wake of the departing upper low near the Big Bend region. Temps will stay near normal in this pattern with light winds Thursday becoming a tad more breezy for eastern NM by Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low clouds and fog eroded away with mostly clear skies now visible across the majority of northern and central New Mexico early this evening. Low-layer, near-surface moisture will be present and sufficient for a few patchy areas of low stratus and fog early Sunday morning. Areas most likely to observe fog will be along the east slopes of the central mountain chain (KRTN-KLVS- KCQC-K0E0-KSRR) and also the east central plains (near KCVN and KPRZ) where isolated IFR to LIFR conditions will be possible (20-40% chance of occurrence). A few gusts of 20 to 25 kt will also arrive from the east northeast Sunday morning as a weak front enters the state. Any low clouds and fog will burn off through the late morning and early afternoon Sunday, leading to just a few fair weather cumulus clouds in east central to southeastern areas of New Mexico and VFR conditions in all areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Soil conditions remain moist with well below normal ERCs. Isolated light rain showers may form near the high terrain Monday thru Thursday as a weak and subtle shortwave trough drifts south across NM. Temps will stay within +/-5 degrees of normal thru late week. Ventilation rates will be poor to fair in most areas with a couple pockets of good values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 53 77 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 76 41 75 / 0 5 0 5 Cuba............................ 47 70 46 71 / 0 5 0 5 Gallup.......................... 46 75 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 46 68 42 71 / 0 5 0 5 Grants.......................... 46 69 43 72 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 46 71 42 72 / 0 5 0 5 Magdalena....................... 49 68 47 68 / 0 5 5 5 Datil........................... 45 65 42 67 / 0 5 0 5 Reserve......................... 45 77 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 49 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 70 42 70 / 0 10 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 50 69 47 70 / 0 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 48 70 44 72 / 0 5 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 71 45 72 / 0 5 0 5 Red River....................... 33 68 33 71 / 0 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 31 66 30 71 / 0 5 0 10 Taos............................ 42 72 42 73 / 0 5 0 5 Mora............................ 46 66 44 72 / 0 5 0 5 Espanola........................ 48 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 70 46 70 / 0 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 72 46 71 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 76 51 74 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 77 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 52 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 51 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 74 49 73 / 0 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 77 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 53 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 67 45 70 / 0 5 5 5 Tijeras......................... 49 72 46 73 / 0 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 47 69 44 74 / 0 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 70 43 73 / 0 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 64 45 70 / 0 5 0 5 Mountainair..................... 45 67 43 70 / 0 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 45 67 44 68 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 72 49 71 / 0 5 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 44 63 45 66 / 5 10 20 5 Capulin......................... 46 67 46 73 / 0 5 5 5 Raton........................... 47 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 47 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 66 44 71 / 0 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 53 71 50 76 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 50 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 54 75 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 72 49 75 / 0 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 52 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 52 76 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 51 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 76 52 76 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 54 78 57 77 / 0 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 49 72 52 74 / 0 10 20 0 Elk............................. 47 71 50 72 / 0 10 20 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.