textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026 - Thunderstorms producing cloud-to-ground lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and brief locally heavy rain will favor portions of the central mountain chain and eastern New Mexico through Friday afternoon.

- There is a moderate chance of thunderstorms impacting recent burn scars across Lincoln County this afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread across far west central New Mexico this afternoon and much of western New Mexico Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

An upper low over California and the Great Basin this afternoon is pulling up low and mid level moisture across central and especially eastern NM. This higher moisture (PWATS between 0.5 to 0.8 inches) combined with a shortwave/jet streak rotating northeast over northwest Mexico is resulting in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and south central highlands and mountains early to mid this afternoon. Coverage will be highest across the Capitan Mountains and surrounding areas northeast of Ruidoso, so the Seven Cabins burn scar will need to watched for potential flash flooding. Isolated to scattered showers and storms move east across parts of the eastern plains this evening. These isolated storms look to linger across portions of the east central and southeast plains overnight as the shortwave moves across south central and eastern NM. Meanwhile, it will be dry and breezy west of the central mountain chain this afternoon due to increasing southerly flow ahead of the upper low. Temperatures will be around average for the end of May.

The upper low slowly opens up as it swings over southern NV, southern UT, and northern AZ Friday. Some isolated storms along the NM/TX border Friday afternoon due to lingering higher low level moisture across this part of the state. A few storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe due to higher bulk shear values of 35 to 40 kts. Meanwhile across western and central NM, deep mixing will tap into drier and stronger 500-700 winds of 30 to 45 kts resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. South-southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph combined with low relative humidity values and dry fuels will result in a higher risk for rapid fire spread across western NM Friday afternoon. Winds will taper off and turn westerly late Friday evening and into the overnight hours as a weak front sweeps through the state.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Dry west mid and upper level flow across the state Saturday south of an upper low over western Wyoming. Western and central NM will be a touch cooler Saturday due to Friday evening's front while eastern NM will be a touch warmer due to downslope southwest winds. Breezy winds across northeast and east central NM Saturday afternoon due to a surface lee trough. Near average temperatures across western and central NM and slightly above average temperatures across eastern NM Sunday with dry southwest flow south of a stalled upper low over the northern Rockies. A weak trough begins developing off southern CA along with some higher moisture returning across the eastern plains Monday. This could result in a few isolated high based showers and storms near the Texas border Monday afternoon and evening. The weak trough off southern CA moves east towards the desert SW Tuesday and closes off into a baggy upper low over the desert SW and northern Mexico next Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow higher moisture and better shower and storm chances to return to areas along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday with drier shower and storm activity between the Continental Divide and central mountain chain. Outflows from storms across the central mountain chain Tuesday will push the higher moisture and better shower and storm coverage west to much of western and central NM Wednesday and next Thursday. Slow and erratic storm motion due to a lack of mid and upper level flow Tuesday-next Thursday along with soils becoming more saturated during the period will help to increase the risk of flash flooding on area burn scars, especially the ones across Lincoln County.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Breezy south winds across western and central NM this afternoon with increasing mid level clouds. Winds taper off after sunset. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the central mountain chain and nearby highlands this afternoon before spreading into parts of the eastern plains this evening. Main hazard will be gusty and erratic winds and some reduced visibility in heavier rain cores. Some lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of the eastern plains overnight. Some patchy fog and low cloud potential across far northeast NM around sunrise Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Breezy south winds, combined with low minimum relative humidity values and dry fuels across far west central New Mexico will result in critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms across the central mountain chain adjacent highlands, and parts of the eastern plains this afternoon and evening. Stronger south-southwest winds across the area Friday afternoon with the strongest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph across western New Mexico. These winds combined with dry fuels and minimum relative humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens across western New Mexico will result in critical fire weather conditions and a higher risk for rapid fire spread. Lower confidence in critical fire weather conditions across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley due to borderline winds across Socorro and White Sands Missile Range and lower ERC values across the Albuquerque area due to precipitation early this week. Isolated strong to severe storms near the Texas border Friday afternoon. Dry with near average temperatures for late May this weekend. Breezy southwest winds across northeast and east central New Mexico Saturday afternoon. Higher moisture gradually expands westward beginning Tuesday resulting in higher shower and storm coverage along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday and most areas Wednesday and next Thursday. Slow storm motion and soils becoming more saturated during the period will increase the risk for burn scar flash flooding.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 87 52 83 44 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 83 43 79 34 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 78 48 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 40 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 44 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 80 45 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 77 45 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 54 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 48 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 81 42 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 86 46 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 76 41 72 34 / 0 5 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 77 54 78 49 / 0 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 78 48 76 44 / 10 20 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 49 74 43 / 0 5 5 0 Red River....................... 68 40 65 36 / 0 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 72 41 70 35 / 5 10 20 0 Taos............................ 79 46 77 41 / 0 5 5 0 Mora............................ 76 47 73 42 / 10 20 20 5 Espanola........................ 85 53 84 46 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 78 54 78 48 / 5 10 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 81 52 81 46 / 5 10 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 61 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 57 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 56 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 58 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 88 54 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 87 58 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 87 53 89 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 88 58 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 87 54 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 82 58 85 54 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 87 57 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 60 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 80 55 79 49 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 54 81 49 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 81 52 80 47 / 10 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 49 82 45 / 10 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 51 77 47 / 20 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 82 51 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 80 52 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 59 81 56 / 10 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 55 76 52 / 30 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 72 45 76 43 / 20 20 20 5 Raton........................... 77 47 79 43 / 10 20 20 5 Springer........................ 78 48 81 44 / 10 20 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 76 49 76 45 / 10 20 20 0 Clayton......................... 77 52 81 50 / 0 20 10 5 Roy............................. 76 50 79 47 / 0 20 20 5 Conchas......................... 83 55 86 53 / 0 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 54 84 52 / 5 20 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 57 87 56 / 5 20 20 0 Clovis.......................... 86 59 85 56 / 10 20 30 0 Portales........................ 87 59 85 56 / 10 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 57 86 53 / 10 20 30 0 Roswell......................... 88 61 89 57 / 10 30 5 0 Picacho......................... 82 56 85 54 / 30 30 5 0 Elk............................. 83 54 81 53 / 20 30 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ101-105-109.