textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern and central New Mexico this week, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas.

SHORT TERM

An upper low is moving across northern MT while subtropical high pressure is entrenched across the southeastern states. This is allowing a plume of monsoon moisture to be steered north northeastward into NM with healthy PWATs generally ranging from 1.0 to 1.3 inches over most of the forecast area. Debris clouds from this mornings showers and storms have thinned out enough for quick destabilization, and a new round of convective initiation has commenced in western NM. Storm motions will be relatively quick at 15 to 20 mph and even a bit stronger in northwestern zones. This would reduce the residence time of storms over any particular area and lower the flash flood threat, but any training cells could overcome this. Northeastern areas would tend to see the least amount of coverage through tonight. Precipitation will turn more showery tonight with lower rainfall rates, but could last well into the early morning hours for many zones.

The moist and somewhat perturbed south southwest flow will persist into Tuesday with storms being most likely to initiate over the Continental Divide and central mountain chain once destabilization occurs in the afternoon. Storm motions may lower slightly, but will essentially stay on a northeastward heading at about 10 to 15 mph. Any areas that get locally heavy rainfall today would be more at risk of runoff and flooding issues on Tuesday, but the spotty nature of this should preclude the need for a Flash Flood Watch. That being said, the coverage of strong storms does look fairly expansive over Catron county, and this will be an area to monitor closely. The other area of concern will be the northeastern plains where a backdoor front will arrive. This will provide some moisture and surface convergence, providing an extra lifting mechanism for storm development, some of which may turn strong. Temperatures will still be 5 to 8 degrees above normal in the east central to southeastern plains of NM, but elsewhere readings should finally start to fall close to, if not slightly below normal on Tuesday.

LONG TERM

By Wednesday, a deep upper low will be moving into northern CA while the high moves a bit closer to the MS valley. This will continue to squeeze subtropical moisture into NM, from a more due south direction through Thursday as the low moves farther inland. Deterministic and probabilistic guidance continue to paint widespread QPF over NM Wednesday and Thursday with PWATs continuing to hover within a 1.0 to 1.3 inch range. Storm motions would likely increase to a 15 to 25 mph pace in the confluent southerly steering flow both of these days, but the day-by-day blotting of precipitation over northern and central NM will start to lead to wetter soils and any training would pose runoff and flooding concerns, mostly on small, localized scales. There are also large uncertainties with excessive mid to high cloud cover which may impede destabilization during the afternoons. Temperatures will run considerably cooler (about 3 to 6 degrees below normal), especially in western and central zones, and prolonged cloud cover could even push these values lower.

By Friday the upper low will move farther inland with a trailing trough over the Great Basin. This will introduce a drier and more westerly wind component aloft into the northwestern third of NM, reducing rain chances there, but remaining areas should continue to observe scattered to numerous showers and storms. Westerlies overtake more of the forecast area into Saturday, reducing storm chances more. There are some discrepancies among deterministic model members by Sunday, but the consensus is that the driest air will be found in western areas of the forecast area with an overall continued decrease in storm coverage for all zones. The exception to this generalization might be the northeastern corner of NM where another weak, but moist backdoor front could enter.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening, then scattered to isolated activity will continue over southern and western areas after midnight. Storms will mostly move toward the east at speeds around 10-25 KT. A few of this evening's stronger storms will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts around 40 KT and small hail. Some storms should linger along the AZ border Tuesday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will then return Tuesday afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A day-by-day increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage is projected through the middle of the week before drier air starts to nose into western areas Friday and more-so into Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to an increased likelihood of wetting rainfall and much needed fuel moisture, especially for western and central zones. The increased moisture, clouds, and precipitation will also lead to cooler temperatures, and humidity will trend upward with good to excellent overnight recoveries occurring area- wide by the middle of the week. No widespread or long duration wind concerns are forecast, and localized thunderstorm outflows will present the main wind challenges this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 57 81 58 78 / 50 30 60 80 Dulce........................... 45 81 46 76 / 60 40 80 90 Cuba............................ 51 77 51 74 / 60 40 60 90 Gallup.......................... 51 78 51 75 / 50 50 60 90 El Morro........................ 49 76 50 73 / 50 50 60 90 Grants.......................... 52 79 53 76 / 50 60 50 100 Quemado......................... 54 77 54 75 / 50 80 50 100 Magdalena....................... 58 78 58 76 / 60 70 60 80 Datil........................... 54 75 54 73 / 50 70 50 100 Reserve......................... 54 82 55 79 / 50 60 70 90 Glenwood........................ 59 89 59 85 / 40 60 70 90 Chama........................... 46 74 47 70 / 50 50 80 90 Los Alamos...................... 57 78 58 75 / 50 50 70 90 Pecos........................... 54 82 54 78 / 40 70 70 100 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 78 52 74 / 30 50 60 70 Red River....................... 45 69 45 67 / 20 60 50 80 Angel Fire...................... 38 74 37 71 / 40 60 70 100 Taos............................ 49 82 50 79 / 30 50 70 80 Mora............................ 52 78 51 76 / 20 70 70 100 Espanola........................ 56 85 57 82 / 40 50 70 90 Santa Fe........................ 58 81 58 78 / 50 40 70 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 83 56 80 / 50 40 70 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 87 64 84 / 60 40 70 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 86 61 83 / 60 30 70 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 88 60 86 / 60 30 70 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 86 63 84 / 60 30 70 80 Belen........................... 60 87 60 85 / 60 30 70 80 Bernalillo...................... 62 88 62 85 / 60 40 70 90 Bosque Farms.................... 59 87 59 85 / 60 30 70 80 Corrales........................ 61 88 62 85 / 60 30 70 80 Los Lunas....................... 60 87 60 85 / 60 20 70 80 Placitas........................ 61 84 61 81 / 60 40 70 90 Rio Rancho...................... 62 87 62 84 / 60 30 70 80 Socorro......................... 64 89 64 88 / 70 40 70 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 81 56 78 / 60 50 70 90 Tijeras......................... 58 82 58 79 / 60 40 70 90 Edgewood........................ 54 84 54 80 / 50 60 70 100 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 85 52 82 / 50 60 70 100 Clines Corners.................. 54 82 53 79 / 40 60 70 100 Mountainair..................... 55 83 55 80 / 50 50 70 90 Gran Quivira.................... 56 82 55 80 / 60 40 70 80 Carrizozo....................... 61 85 60 83 / 80 40 60 80 Ruidoso......................... 57 81 55 77 / 60 70 60 100 Capulin......................... 56 76 53 79 / 10 20 80 70 Raton........................... 54 82 53 81 / 10 40 70 90 Springer........................ 55 85 54 84 / 20 40 80 90 Las Vegas....................... 55 81 54 78 / 20 60 80 100 Clayton......................... 65 83 59 88 / 20 5 60 20 Roy............................. 59 83 57 81 / 30 30 80 70 Conchas......................... 66 92 63 90 / 30 40 90 60 Santa Rosa...................... 64 89 61 85 / 50 50 80 60 Tucumcari....................... 67 93 62 90 / 30 50 90 40 Clovis.......................... 66 95 63 91 / 50 40 90 20 Portales........................ 67 96 64 91 / 50 40 90 20 Fort Sumner..................... 66 94 63 90 / 60 40 80 40 Roswell......................... 67 97 65 93 / 50 40 70 20 Picacho......................... 62 90 59 86 / 50 80 60 80 Elk............................. 59 88 57 85 / 30 70 50 80

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.