textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1046 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Temperatures will yo-yo up and down across eastern New Mexico over the next week as several backdoor cold fronts press through the area. Warmest conditions are expected Sunday and again mid week, while the coldest conditions are expected Saturday.

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The backdoor front is quite impressive this morning. It has been barreling southward across eastern CO and western KS with gusts well over 60 mph. A line of dust has also been noted on satellite imagery, though observations have only shown visibilities dropping between 1 and 3 miles for a short time. Nonetheless, this front is about to push into northeast NM and will continue to quickly push southward overnight. Wind Advisories were issued for much of northeast NM and along the TX border through the morning hours with gusts of 50-55 mph likely. Based on the observations across CO, there is some concern of a brief high wind gust, particularly around KCAO early this morning. These strong winds will subside by mid to late morning, then surface winds will begin to veer around to the south by mid afternoon. Aside from the wind, temperatures will also plummet today. High temperatures across eastern NM will be in the 40s to low 50s, or about 20-25 degrees colder than yesterday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens.

Meanwhile, across western NM, high temperatures will drop a few degrees from yesterday as H5 heights lower. Additionally, a 30kt or so mid level jet will redevelop this afternoon and evening from KFMN to KABQ to KROW. Though mixing heights are only around 3-4kft, a modest surface pressure gradient will develop across western NM. Weak mixing combined with the pressure gradient will allow for breezy conditions to develop across northwest and west central NM, though winds will not be nearly as strong as they will be this morning across eastern NM.

Quieter conditions are expected tonight, though a reinforcing cold front will sag into eastern NM as the surface high settles over west Texas. High temperatures on Saturday across eastern NM will be 5 to 10 degrees colder than today. Temperatures across western NM will also drop up to 5 degrees as H5 heights continue to lower. Winds associated with the front will not be as strong on Saturday morning as they are this morning. However, some northwest breezes will again develop across western NM Saturday aftn. Models have been hinting at a ribbon of snow flurries behind the front across far northeast NM Saturday morning. CAMs are not too enthusiastic about this potential, likely owing to the very dry low levels, but some low end PoPs (<=15%) have been included in this forecast package.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1230 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Surface winds will veer back around to the south and southwest Saturday night across eastern NM, but overnight low temperatures will remain in the teens.

Temperatures will yo-yo back upward Sunday afternoon across eastern NM (and to a lesser extent, across western NM). A weak lee side trough will develop Sunday afternoon, allowing westerly breezes to return. Downsloping will allow temperatures to climb around 20 degrees from Saturday's readings. In other words, Saturday will be one of the coldest days of the next several days, while Sunday will be one of the warmest across eastern NM. Western NM's warmup will only be up to 8 degrees or so.

Sunday night into Monday, another cold front will sag into northeast and east central NM. The front may ooze into the Rio Grande Valley by sunrise Monday. This will again drop temperatures across eastern NM on the order of 10 to 20 degrees for Monday afternoon, while western NM will be largely unaffected.

The highly amplified pattern we're seeing will slowly break down Tuesday through Thursday, with more westerly flow aloft returning over NM by Thursday. Another backdoor front looks to arrive on Wednesday, and wouldn't be surprised to see the temp forecast drop a bit from current projections. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue to prevail through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions are present and expected to persist throughout the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds have developed and will continue throughout the afternoon at many central and western terminals. Gusts up to 35kts are likely to be observed. Across eastern NM, last night's front has moved through the area and will begin to wash out, shifting winds from the north more to the south and east, as well as decreasing speeds. Cannot rule out a few flurries after 06z near KCAO to KTCC, but confidence is very low. LLWS is once again expected over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and surrounding mountain terminals, mainly between 09-15z. There is also the low chance of LLWS being observed at KABQ and KAEG from 02-07z. Winds at the surface are currently forecast to be strong enough to negate the LLWS (moderate to high confidence), but any decrease in surface wind may cause instances of LLWS this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week, however, strong northerly winds are expected this morning across eastern NM as a potent cold front slides southward down the plains. Gusts near 50 to 55 mph are likely. Winds will subside by late morning across the east, but breezy northwest winds will develop across northwest NM this afternoon. Another cold front will sag southward into eastern NM early Saturday, thus temperatures will turn much colder than they were yesterday. Westerly downslope breezes on Sunday will yo-yo temperatures back upward across eastern NM, but another front on Sunday night and early Monday will drop temps once again. Yet another backdoor front should arrive Wednesday. Outside of a few flurries across northeast NM on Saturday morning, dry conditions will prevail. Main concern will be periods of poor ventilation. Greatest vent rates are expected today and Saturday for most areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 50 23 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 11 45 12 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 47 18 44 17 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 51 11 46 9 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 20 45 19 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 53 12 46 10 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 19 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 27 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 51 23 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 19 55 18 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 68 23 62 21 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 44 11 40 14 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 47 21 41 23 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 49 15 42 20 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 15 36 18 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 33 11 27 15 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 41 0 31 -2 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 46 9 41 9 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 49 12 40 18 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 54 16 48 16 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 21 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 19 44 19 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 24 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 20 54 17 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 26 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 21 53 18 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 58 26 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 22 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 27 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 26 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 24 43 24 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 26 44 25 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 51 20 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 14 46 13 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 47 16 38 20 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 21 46 21 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 53 20 46 21 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 26 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 25 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 10 29 12 / 0 10 5 0 Raton........................... 45 8 33 11 / 0 5 5 0 Springer........................ 48 12 36 11 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 12 37 16 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 44 18 35 19 / 0 10 10 0 Roy............................. 43 15 34 15 / 0 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 50 18 42 16 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 48 19 39 20 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 50 17 43 17 / 0 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 49 19 40 19 / 0 5 5 0 Portales........................ 51 19 41 19 / 0 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 18 42 16 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 53 22 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 20 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 54 20 50 19 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.