textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 527 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will focus over western and central New Mexico today and Tuesday. Brief gusty outflow winds and lightning are the main hazards.

- Rain chances trend higher mid week, with increasing confidence for widespread, soaking rainfall Wednesday through Friday. A few storms may produce strong outflow wind gusts each afternoon. - Rounds of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall may create excessive runoff, with the highest threat Thursday and Friday. Localized flash flooding may occur in urban areas, arroyos, low water crossings, and areas with poor drainage.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Southwest flow aloft resides over New Mexico today, with modest moisture advection throughout the vertical column. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail around the region, with an increasing coverage of showers throughout the day. The main area of precipitation will focus on the east side of a vort lobe that will be located over far eastern Arizona this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will generally be light, with most areas receiving less than 0.1" or nothing at all. HREF and REFS guidance suggests a focused area of showers and storms could generate upwards of 0.75" in central NM, with southern Bernalillo/northern Valencia County favored based on 00Z guidance.

Tuesday is forecast to be slightly drier than Monday thanks to some dry air advection and subsidence in the wake of the exiting shortwave that will generate Monday's crop of convection. Rain chances will favor the Continental Divide, including the Southwest Mountains where PWATs will creep higher during the late afternoon and evening. This push of moisture will make its way towards the northeast Tuesday night. While NBM PoPs remain very low for this period, they may trend higher in response to this moisture advection.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

An active and wet Fall pattern is forecast mid-week through at least Saturday. A closed Low is progged to break off from the subtropical jet stream Tuesday, settling off the California Coast Wednesday. At the same time, ridging will amplify over the Central Plains, focusing a moisture plume over the desert southwest.

Very strong southerly moisture transport, as evidenced by IVT values approaching 600 units (kg/ms), will set up over central AZ Wednesday, shifting into eastern AZ and western NM on Thursday as the closed Low slides eastward. The main area of uncertainty over the past 2 days has revolved around the track of the Low as it moves inland into the Intermountain West. Ensemble guidance has trended more progressive with its movement inland, with only a small minority (~15%) of ensembles still showing a near-stationary closed Low over soCal.

Large scale ascent will create large swaths of precipitation late Wednesday through Friday, with stronger bands focusing around the vort max that will eject across the Four Corners region Thursday. Rainfall totals have ticked higher for the Four Corners, with 50th percentile amounts over the 48 hour period from Wednesday morning through Friday morning now showing 1.8" in Gallup and 2.1" in Farmington. Notably, the average recurrence interval (ARI) for these 50th percentile 48 hour rainfall amounts range from 4 years in Gallup to 20 years in Farmington. Given that synoptic scale features will drive much of this precipitation, the spread of rainfall amounts (e.g. 10th to 90th percentile) is on the lower side compared to a typical monsoonal surge. Forecast instability remains highest over southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico Thursday then over southeast New Mexico on Friday where clearing should promote more surface heating. This will be something to watch closely as it could be the case that the flash flood threat is not necessarily co- located with the highest forecast rainfall amounts.

Beyond Friday, model disagreement remains high, but the overall forecast continues to trend wetter. The jet stream is forecast to remain north over the northern Rockies, but some models want to re- develop another Low off the coast of California, which would keep moist southerly flow over New Mexico through the weekend into the early part of next week. The majority of guidance (~75%) of models feature a slower developing longwave trough over The Great Basin, although those solutions are not advertised by current deterministic guidance.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will favor central NM, with the highest rain chances between 21Z and 06Z. Storms will move towards the northeast at 20 to 30 knots so any visibility reductions will be brief. Wind gusts upwards of 30 knots could accompany stronger storms. Prevailing winds will continue to be light, with light and variable winds after sunset tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next seven days. Scattered showers and storms today will generally focus over central NM, with isolated activity elsewhere. Wetting rainfall is not likely in with most storms, but briefly gusty outflow winds could accompany fast moving storms that will be moving towards the northeast at 20 to 30 mph. Coverage trends lower on Tuesday, although there will still be isolated showers and storms in the western two-thirds of the state.

Widespread soaking rainfall is likely Wednesday through Friday, with "most likely" 2-day rainfall totals ranging from 0.5-2", with the highest amounts in northwest New Mexico. Breezy south winds are likely Wednesday through Friday as well, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph commonplace each afternoon. In general, ventilation will trend better mid-week in response to strengthening south to southwest flow. Rain chances over the weekend and early next week will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 69 49 70 50 / 0 20 20 20 Dulce........................... 68 40 66 40 / 0 50 50 10 Cuba............................ 67 45 67 47 / 10 20 20 5 Gallup.......................... 66 42 69 45 / 30 40 10 30 El Morro........................ 65 39 68 44 / 50 60 20 30 Grants.......................... 67 43 71 46 / 40 50 20 20 Quemado......................... 68 42 70 47 / 30 40 30 10 Magdalena....................... 65 48 69 52 / 60 40 30 5 Datil........................... 64 44 68 47 / 60 60 20 5 Reserve......................... 71 45 73 48 / 60 60 40 30 Glenwood........................ 75 50 78 53 / 80 80 40 50 Chama........................... 61 41 59 40 / 0 30 50 5 Los Alamos...................... 66 47 66 49 / 5 50 30 5 Pecos........................... 69 43 68 44 / 20 60 30 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 43 63 45 / 0 20 30 0 Red River....................... 57 35 55 37 / 0 20 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 62 29 61 30 / 0 20 10 0 Taos............................ 68 41 66 41 / 0 30 30 0 Mora............................ 66 40 67 41 / 10 40 10 0 Espanola........................ 74 46 73 47 / 5 40 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 68 47 67 50 / 10 50 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 46 69 48 / 10 50 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 53 74 56 / 20 50 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 51 75 54 / 20 50 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 75 51 76 54 / 20 50 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 53 74 55 / 10 50 20 5 Belen........................... 73 50 76 52 / 30 40 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 75 51 76 53 / 10 50 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 74 49 76 52 / 20 40 10 0 Corrales........................ 75 52 76 54 / 10 50 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 73 50 76 52 / 20 40 10 0 Placitas........................ 72 52 72 54 / 20 50 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 73 52 75 54 / 10 50 20 5 Socorro......................... 74 53 78 56 / 40 50 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 46 68 50 / 20 50 20 5 Tijeras......................... 69 48 69 51 / 20 50 20 0 Edgewood........................ 70 45 71 46 / 30 40 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 43 73 44 / 30 40 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 45 69 47 / 30 40 20 0 Mountainair..................... 68 45 71 48 / 40 50 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 46 70 48 / 40 50 30 0 Carrizozo....................... 71 51 74 54 / 50 50 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 67 47 70 49 / 60 40 20 0 Capulin......................... 67 44 68 45 / 0 10 10 0 Raton........................... 71 41 72 41 / 0 10 10 0 Springer........................ 72 43 74 42 / 5 20 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 68 43 68 42 / 20 40 10 0 Clayton......................... 71 50 74 54 / 0 5 5 0 Roy............................. 70 46 72 46 / 5 10 10 0 Conchas......................... 76 51 78 53 / 5 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 48 75 51 / 10 20 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 51 79 54 / 0 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 77 50 78 53 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 78 50 78 54 / 5 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 49 77 53 / 0 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 77 51 80 54 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 49 76 51 / 20 20 10 0 Elk............................. 75 49 77 50 / 30 10 20 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.