textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more showers, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and mountain snow favoring western and northern New Mexico. Gusty winds may create difficult travel for high-profile vehicles over eastern New Mexico. A few to several inches of snow in the northern mountains may create slick travel and reduced visibility, especially over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Breezy to locally windy conditions will return over the weekend, especially across eastern New Mexico behind a strong backdoor cold front on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

An impressive tap of Pacific moisture is getting pulled northeast into the Desert SW and NM ahead of an approaching upper level low, currently moving onshore near SoCal per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. This tap is already resulting in thickening mid/high clouds across the region and is keeping a lid on daytime mixing. Moisture advection will ramp-up overnight as the upper low moves east toward Las Vegas, NV and showers break-out over AZ and western NM. The upper low will fill and begin to accelerate east on Tuesday as a backdoor cold front creeps into northeast NM. Precip chances will favor western and northern NM on Tuesday, with sufficient instability for thunderstorms and small hail. A near-saturated frontal layer across northeast NM will likely result in areas of fog that will persist overnight into Wednesday. The jet stream is still forecast to orient from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday and reach up to 125kts at 300mb, producing windy conditions across much of south central and east central NM. A Wind Advisory has been issued for SW Chaves County and the South Central Mountains for Tuesday afternoon/evening and may need to be expanded to include eastern Lincoln Co. Precip chances will trend down Tuesday night, except for across northern NM near the CO border and behind the backdoor cold front across northeast NM. Snow levels will lower Tuesday night as well, bringing snow down to near 8Kft in the northern mountains where snow accumulation will begin.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

A potent trailing shortwave trough will move southeast through the southern Rockies and northern NM on Wednesday, bringing a more impressive round of precipitation to northern NM and pushing the backdoor cold front south down the eastern plains. Snow levels will fall another 500ft or so on Wednesday and the north central mountains will likely pick up several inches of snow, with the focus are being the peaks and east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos to Raton Pass. At this time, there is a low to moderate (20-40%) chance for Winter Weather Advisory issuance in this area. The shortwave trough will also push a cold front through the front door Wednesday afternoon, bringing brisk conditions to the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros around sunset. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the next seven, with highs forecast below average areawide and 20-30 degrees below average across far northeast NM. A hard freeze is forecast across portions of northern NM Wednesday night into Thursday morning and a Freeze Watch may be issued in the next 24hrs for locales that are close to their average last freeze date. The trough will eject east out of NM Wednesday night into Thursday, with warming and drying forecast through Saturday under weak northwest flow aloft while a weak Baja low passes to the south of the area. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast over the weekend under increasing WNW flow aloft as an upper level trough progresses east from the Great Basin through the central/southern Rockies. A backdoor cold front will move down the eastern plains on Sunday behind the trough ejecting out of the Rockies, bringing cooler conditions and chances for showers and storms that will favor the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos and adjacent highlands.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with a gradual lowering of VFR cigs and increasing probabilities for MVFR conditions overnight into Tuesday morning across western NM with the onset of light rain. Otherwise, gusty southwest-westerly low level flow will persist well into the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Moisture advection will ramp-up overnight into Tuesday in advance of an approaching Pacific low, bringing increased humidity and chances for wetting precipitation that will favor western and northern areas. Strong southwest winds across east central and south central portions of the area on Tuesday will bring elevated fire weather conditions, but humidity will not reach critical threshold and ERCs are average to below average. Good chances for wetting precipitation will persist across north central and northeast areas Wednesday as a backdoor cold front interacts with an approaching shortwave trough. A warming/drying trend is forecast from Thursday through Saturday, with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions returning on Saturday across western NM. Increasing northwest flow aloft and continued drying will increase chances for critical fire weather conditions across western areas on Sunday, while a backdoor cold front brings higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation east of the central mountain chain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 48 64 39 60 / 5 50 40 40 Dulce........................... 39 59 33 55 / 5 40 60 70 Cuba............................ 41 57 34 55 / 20 60 50 50 Gallup.......................... 39 58 33 59 / 30 60 30 40 El Morro........................ 40 56 34 59 / 30 60 20 30 Grants.......................... 41 60 35 63 / 20 60 20 30 Quemado......................... 43 60 33 63 / 40 60 20 10 Magdalena....................... 47 65 39 65 / 20 40 10 5 Datil........................... 43 60 35 61 / 30 60 10 10 Reserve......................... 41 61 31 67 / 40 60 10 5 Glenwood........................ 41 65 35 70 / 50 70 10 5 Chama........................... 35 54 31 48 / 5 50 70 80 Los Alamos...................... 50 59 41 56 / 10 50 50 50 Pecos........................... 44 60 35 57 / 10 40 40 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 58 36 48 / 5 50 60 80 Red River....................... 36 49 30 38 / 5 50 70 80 Angel Fire...................... 35 55 29 45 / 5 50 60 80 Taos............................ 40 61 35 54 / 5 40 50 70 Mora............................ 43 59 35 54 / 5 40 40 70 Espanola........................ 47 65 40 63 / 10 40 50 40 Santa Fe........................ 47 60 39 60 / 10 50 50 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 63 37 62 / 10 40 40 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 63 45 66 / 20 50 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 66 44 68 / 20 40 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 68 41 70 / 20 40 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 66 43 67 / 20 50 30 20 Belen........................... 51 70 40 72 / 20 40 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 52 67 43 67 / 20 50 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 49 68 39 71 / 20 40 20 20 Corrales........................ 52 67 42 68 / 20 50 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 49 69 40 71 / 20 40 20 10 Placitas........................ 54 64 44 64 / 20 50 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 53 66 44 67 / 20 50 30 30 Socorro......................... 54 73 44 73 / 20 30 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 59 40 59 / 20 50 40 30 Tijeras......................... 50 61 41 62 / 20 50 30 20 Edgewood........................ 48 62 38 62 / 20 40 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 64 32 64 / 20 40 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 46 61 35 58 / 10 30 20 30 Mountainair..................... 47 63 37 63 / 20 30 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 47 64 38 64 / 30 30 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 54 68 46 67 / 20 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 52 64 42 61 / 20 20 5 5 Capulin......................... 40 57 31 38 / 0 60 80 80 Raton........................... 42 63 36 44 / 0 50 80 80 Springer........................ 45 66 37 51 / 0 40 50 80 Las Vegas....................... 46 63 37 56 / 0 30 20 60 Clayton......................... 48 59 34 44 / 0 30 70 70 Roy............................. 49 66 37 53 / 0 30 20 70 Conchas......................... 56 74 43 66 / 0 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 52 73 44 67 / 0 10 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 57 76 43 65 / 0 10 20 30 Clovis.......................... 56 79 47 73 / 0 5 5 5 Portales........................ 58 80 48 74 / 0 5 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 56 79 46 74 / 0 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 58 83 51 80 / 5 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 52 73 45 74 / 10 10 0 5 Elk............................. 51 70 43 70 / 5 10 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ226-240.