textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms will produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds this afternoon and early evening west of the central mountain chain.

- Another Pacific system will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, bringing more showers, storms, gusty winds, and high mountain snow favoring western and northern New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

A dirty ridge is overhead and is resulting in warmer conditions today, despite the increased cloud cover. A round of daytime heating initiated convection is underway and is forecast to expand in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours across western NM, then move northeast into central NM through the evening hours. Instability is limited today, so wetting (>0.10") rain and lightning activity will be limited as well, with gusty/erratic winds the more common impact from this round. The upper level ridge will flatten out on Monday and give way to stronger westerlies, bringing breezy to windy conditions by afternoon. Warming will continue Monday, mainly across the eastern plains where downslope warming will play a role. Moisture advection will begin Monday night ahead of an approaching Pacific low, while a backdoor cold front slides into northeast NM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

The jet stream will orient from southwest to northeast across the state in advance of the Pacific low on Tuesday, with 300mb wind speeds forecast to reach up to 125kts. A windy day will result, especially across the highlands southward to the South Central Mountains where a Wind Advisory may be required. Precipitation chances will favor western and northern NM on Tuesday with increasing lightning activity, especially across the northern mountains and in the vicinity of the backdoor cold front across northeast NM. The forecast for Wednesday is more uncertain due to model spread with the handling of a shortwave trough moving southeast toward the southern Rockies. Higher forecast confidence on precipitation across northeast NM thanks to the presence of the backdoor cold front and associated forcing, but lower confidence elsewhere. The Sangre De Cristos are still looking primed to pick up a few inches of snow above 8,500ft from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with low to moderate chances to reach advisory criteria. The backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains and pull up stationary along the central mountain chain Wednesday night as the northern stream shortwave trough ejects east out of the southern Rockies. The forecast beyond Wednesday is of lower forecast confidence at this time due to model spread and run-to-run inconsistency with the handling of a Baja low and an upstream trough. However, a lean toward drier/warmer conditions across western NM and wetter/cooler conditions across eastern NM is the most likely scenario at this time. The latest medium range model solutions show another backdoor cold front impacting eastern NM Saturday night through Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, with occasional VFR cigs in the form of mid and high clouds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across western NM, then spread slowly northeast into central NM and decay through the evening hours. Western and central TAF sites may be impacted by showers and gusty winds, but lightning probabilities are too low to include thunder in the the TAFs. Otherwise, gusty south-southwest winds will develop later this afternoon and persist into the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Wind speeds will trend up and humidity will trend down Monday as an upper level ridge flattens out and gives way to stronger westerlies, bringing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions to portions of western NM. Given the recent wetting precipitation event across eastern NM and associated impacts to ERCs, there is low to no concern for critical fire weather conditions to develop on Monday. Strong southwest winds will develop Tuesday in advance of an approaching Pacific low, which will also bring higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation including a few thunderstorms. Chances for wetting precipitation will be highest across northeast NM near the CO border on Wednesday as a backdoor cold front will be creeping slowly southwest. A warming/drying trend is forecast thereafter, but the forecast is of lower confidence given model spread with the handling of a Pacific low over the Baja Peninsula and an upstream trough. That said, probabilities for widespread critical fire weather conditions beyond Wednesday are low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 47 74 46 66 / 30 0 5 30 Dulce........................... 38 68 38 63 / 40 10 5 40 Cuba............................ 41 68 42 61 / 40 5 10 50 Gallup.......................... 39 70 40 62 / 30 0 10 50 El Morro........................ 40 67 40 59 / 20 5 20 50 Grants.......................... 40 71 42 64 / 30 5 10 50 Quemado......................... 43 71 43 62 / 30 5 30 40 Magdalena....................... 48 71 48 65 / 30 5 20 40 Datil........................... 43 68 43 61 / 30 5 20 40 Reserve......................... 40 73 40 64 / 10 5 30 50 Glenwood........................ 41 77 40 68 / 20 5 30 50 Chama........................... 35 62 34 58 / 50 10 5 50 Los Alamos...................... 47 69 47 62 / 30 5 5 60 Pecos........................... 42 70 42 63 / 20 0 5 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 65 40 61 / 20 10 0 40 Red River....................... 35 55 34 52 / 30 10 0 50 Angel Fire...................... 33 62 32 57 / 20 5 0 40 Taos............................ 39 69 39 64 / 20 5 0 30 Mora............................ 41 68 41 62 / 10 5 0 40 Espanola........................ 46 76 47 68 / 20 5 5 40 Santa Fe........................ 46 70 45 63 / 20 5 10 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 73 44 66 / 20 0 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 76 53 67 / 30 5 10 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 78 52 69 / 20 5 10 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 80 51 71 / 20 5 10 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 78 52 69 / 30 5 10 50 Belen........................... 48 80 50 71 / 30 5 10 40 Bernalillo...................... 50 79 52 69 / 30 0 10 40 Bosque Farms.................... 46 80 48 70 / 20 5 10 40 Corrales........................ 49 79 51 70 / 30 0 10 50 Los Lunas....................... 46 80 48 70 / 20 5 10 40 Placitas........................ 52 75 52 66 / 30 0 10 50 Rio Rancho...................... 51 78 52 68 / 30 0 10 50 Socorro......................... 52 80 54 74 / 40 5 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 71 48 62 / 30 5 20 50 Tijeras......................... 48 73 49 64 / 20 5 10 50 Edgewood........................ 44 74 46 65 / 20 5 10 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 75 40 67 / 20 5 10 40 Clines Corners.................. 44 71 44 63 / 20 0 10 30 Mountainair..................... 45 73 46 65 / 30 5 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 45 73 46 66 / 40 5 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 52 74 53 68 / 20 5 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 49 69 49 61 / 10 5 20 30 Capulin......................... 41 71 39 57 / 10 10 5 70 Raton........................... 40 75 42 64 / 10 0 0 50 Springer........................ 42 76 46 68 / 5 0 0 40 Las Vegas....................... 44 71 44 65 / 10 0 0 30 Clayton......................... 49 80 44 62 / 5 0 5 30 Roy............................. 46 76 47 67 / 5 0 0 30 Conchas......................... 53 85 53 76 / 5 0 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 50 81 51 73 / 10 0 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 54 87 54 77 / 5 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 51 85 55 77 / 5 0 0 10 Portales........................ 53 86 57 79 / 5 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 51 86 55 77 / 10 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 52 90 57 80 / 10 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 50 80 52 73 / 10 0 10 20 Elk............................. 47 76 50 69 / 10 0 10 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.