textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 124 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026 - Pleasant Fall weather remains this weekend, with some showers entering western New Mexico this afternoon.

- Precipitation chances steadily increase next week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday.

- Fast moving storms will threaten strong gusty winds and repeated rounds of rainfall which have a low chance for localized flooding for western and central NM mainly Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 124 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A closed Low continues to spin off the coast of soCal, but will begin to move today as it opens up and ejects inland into Arizona. Pacific moisture will increase from the southwest, with a few light showers and storms developing from the Continental Divide westward this morning through the afternoon. DCAPE is not overly impressive (200-500 J/kg), but would not be surprised if there were a few gusts upwards of 35 mph associated with this high-based convective activity.

Another batch of moisture will make its way into New Mexico from the southwest on Monday as the aformentioned Low shifts over the Four Corners region. LIs as low as -3C suggests the potential for isolated to scattered storms, although intensity will be limited due to lack of vertical development of convection. Despite the increase of cloud cover, the airmass being advected into the area will be warmer, resulting in higher daytime temps and much higher nighttime lows.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

The synoptic pattern over the desert southwest will begin to evolve on Tuesday as a deep trough off the coast of California digs southward and ridging rapidly amplifies over the Central Plains. This will drag a more focused plume of sub-tropical northward from the Gulf of California into Arizona and New Mexico. While there are no tropical systems that will get caught within this plume, the moisture itself will be enough to increase the coverage of showers and storms mid to late week. Strong ascent and moisture advection are expected out ahead of the digging trough, resulting in impressive moisture transport values. Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) will be maximized over western AZ Wednesday, with values reaching as high as 600 units (kg/ms). This is very high for the Intermountain West, with NAEFS climatology suggesting this would be above the 99th percentile.

The predominant source of model uncertainty remains the depth of the west coast trough and the speed at which it ejects inland. ENS members remain on the deeper side, with GEFS members favoring a slightly more progressive pattern. Given the strengthening El Nino and the MJO being in Phase 1 (western Hemisphere), pattern recognition would suggest that the deeper solutions would be favored, although only time will tell. 50th percentile QPF amounts for the Wednesday-Friday timeframe still show a broad area of 0.5- 1.5", with the highest amounts focusing over northwest NM. Amounts have trended down slightly in most areas, but are higher in the Northwest Plateau where it looks like the strongest moisture transport will set up.

The severe weather threat (or lack thereof) will be highly dependent on instability. LREF guidance shows the best overlapping of both instability and shear in southern NM Thursday then in southeast NM on Friday. While disagreement remains high, models are trending wetter over the weekend into the early part of next week, with the potential for more subtropical moisture to return to New Mexico.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will increase from the southwest overnight into Sunday. A few light showers and even a storm or two may develop along and west of the Cont. Divide from 12Z this morning through 00Z Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Poor to fair ventilation today and Monday will likely trend better on Tuesday when there will be pockets of good to excellent ventilation in southwest and northeastern areas. Poor to fair ventilation is likely in most areas mid to late week, although there will be pockets where it is better.

A few light showers are possible across far western NM Sunday, becoming progressively more widespread Monday and Tuesday. Numerous showers and storms forecast Wednesday and Thursday, with the highest coverage across northwest and north-central NM. Rain chances trend lower over the weekend, although some models are indicating the wet pattern could continue through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 62 44 67 49 / 5 10 20 10 Dulce........................... 64 37 65 40 / 0 10 20 60 Cuba............................ 63 42 65 46 / 0 5 20 30 Gallup.......................... 65 41 66 44 / 10 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 64 39 64 41 / 20 20 30 30 Grants.......................... 68 41 67 44 / 20 30 30 30 Quemado......................... 68 42 67 45 / 20 5 20 20 Magdalena....................... 66 45 65 49 / 10 10 40 30 Datil........................... 66 42 64 44 / 5 10 40 30 Reserve......................... 71 41 70 46 / 0 5 30 50 Glenwood........................ 74 44 74 52 / 10 20 50 70 Chama........................... 60 39 59 41 / 0 10 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 63 43 64 46 / 0 5 20 40 Pecos........................... 66 40 68 43 / 0 0 5 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 41 64 43 / 5 0 5 10 Red River....................... 59 34 56 36 / 0 0 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 24 61 27 / 0 0 5 10 Taos............................ 64 37 66 41 / 0 0 5 20 Mora............................ 69 39 66 40 / 0 0 5 20 Espanola........................ 68 40 71 46 / 0 5 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 63 45 66 48 / 0 0 10 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 43 68 47 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 49 72 54 / 0 0 10 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 47 72 52 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 43 74 51 / 0 5 10 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 48 72 52 / 0 0 10 50 Belen........................... 70 43 73 50 / 0 5 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 70 45 74 51 / 0 0 10 50 Bosque Farms.................... 70 41 74 49 / 0 5 10 40 Corrales........................ 70 46 74 51 / 0 0 10 50 Los Lunas....................... 70 42 73 50 / 0 5 10 40 Placitas........................ 67 47 71 51 / 0 0 10 50 Rio Rancho...................... 69 47 73 51 / 0 0 10 50 Socorro......................... 71 49 74 53 / 10 5 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 42 66 47 / 0 0 10 50 Tijeras......................... 65 44 68 49 / 0 0 10 50 Edgewood........................ 67 41 69 44 / 0 0 10 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 39 71 43 / 0 0 10 40 Clines Corners.................. 65 43 67 45 / 0 0 5 20 Mountainair..................... 65 42 67 47 / 0 5 10 40 Gran Quivira.................... 64 42 66 46 / 0 5 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 66 49 70 51 / 0 0 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 66 45 66 46 / 0 0 30 30 Capulin......................... 69 42 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 72 38 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 73 37 72 39 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 69 39 68 41 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 67 48 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 74 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 73 46 75 48 / 0 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 71 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 71 46 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 70 45 76 51 / 0 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 70 47 73 49 / 0 0 20 10 Elk............................. 72 45 74 47 / 0 0 30 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.