textproduct: Albuquerque
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 520 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026
- A hard freeze is expected through mid morning across portions of central, western, and northern New Mexico. Take precautions to protect exposed plumbing and early blooming plants.
- Another period of critical fire weather may occur Sunday over northeast New Mexico with rapid fire spread possible. Critical fire weather conditions return to northeast New Mexico and potentially northwest New Mexico Wednesday.
- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms Monday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, patchy blowing dust, and potential future fire starts from dry lightning.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday) Issued at 151 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026
It's a mostly clear and cold night across northern and central NM. Strong north winds across eastern NM and the RGV behind a backdoor front Friday evening have weakened early this morning, so went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory across far eastern NM. With the clear skies, lighter winds, and very dry air in place this morning, temperatures will plummet through just after sunrise, with 20s to low 30s for areas along and west of I-25 and along and north of I-40. A hard freeze is expected for the San Juan River Valley, valley locations of north central and northeast NM with a light freeze in valley locations of the ABQ Metro so the Freeze Warning remains in effect for these locations and the San Augustin Plains until 9 AM MDT. A cool and quiet Saturday is expected in the wake of Friday's system with generally light east to southeast winds. Lows Sunday morning will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning as the airmass moderates due to southeast return flow. A few zones like the San Juan River Valley, upper RGV, and Espanola and Estancia Valleys will probably need another Freeze Warning based on current forecasted lows in the mid 20s to low 30s, but will let the day shift take care of that after this morning's freeze.
Upper level ridging will move overhead on Sunday. However, southeast and south surface and mid level flow will bring in some mid level Gulf moisture. Low levels will remain pretty dry with dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s. This higher mid level moisture combined with some daytime heating will result in the development of some virga showers across the western high terrain Sunday evening. Main hazard will be gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph. Meanwhile, dry southwest wind gusts up to 40 mph combined with minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid teens will result in the potential for rapid fire spread across northeast NM Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 151 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Upper level ridging will be over much of the intermountain West on Monday. However, a weak disturbance embedded in the ridge over New Mexico combined with elevated Gulf moisture due to southeast surface return flow will result in the development of isolated to scattered virga showers for most areas during the afternoon and early evening hours. Potential exists for some dry thunderstorms as well with the western high terrain favored due to LI values of -3 to -5 deg C. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph along with dry lightning potentially resulting in future fire starts. Drier westerly flow moves into the state on Tuesday ahead of an unseasonably strong upper low spinning off the Pacific coast. A few sprinkles to light showers can't be ruled out across the north central mountains. The upper low is forecasted to move into the western U.S Wednesday and across the intermountain West Thursday with lingering longwave troughing across much of the western U.S. Friday. This will result in gusty southwest to west winds across most of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday with a potential for rapid fire spread favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain, and potentially northwest NM as well on Wednesday. Dry and gusty southwest to west winds could continue for most Friday with a backdoor front hanging in far northeast NM. Temperatures will be near average Monday, warming to above average temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling down closer to average in the wake of the Pacific front Thursday and Friday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail. North winds across south central and southeast NM will continue to taper off during the morning. Winds across eastern NM turn easterly during the afternoon. Light southeast to south winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. A brief period of breezy southeast winds near canyon openings across central NM, including KSAF and KABQ, late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 151 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Cool with light east and southeast winds areawide Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions return to northeast New Mexico Sunday due to gusty southwest winds from a surface lee trough combined with low minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid teens. Elevated gulf moisture across the state Monday will result in isolated to scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms across most areas Monday. Dry thunderstorms will favor the western high terrain. Dry lightning could result in future fire starts. Warmer with light south and southwest winds Tuesday. Southwest winds increase Wednesday as an system moves into the western U.S. These stronger winds combined with minimum relative humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens will result in the potential for critical fire weather conditions across northeast NM and potentially northwest NM after several days of drying fuels. The system moves across the intermountain West Thursday resulting in gusty west winds, low relative humidity values, and critical fire weather conditions along and east of the central mountain chain. Southwest and west winds remain elevated Friday, but slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher relative humidity values could limit critical fire weather conditions.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 62 31 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 61 18 70 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 29 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 62 23 72 36 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 62 30 69 37 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 64 25 72 36 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 66 33 70 38 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 62 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 62 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 74 31 74 38 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 78 35 77 40 / 0 0 5 10 Chama........................... 55 22 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 34 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 60 28 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 29 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 46 23 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 53 10 61 18 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 59 22 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 57 26 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 65 30 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 35 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 33 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 41 73 50 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 38 75 47 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 37 77 46 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 39 75 49 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 69 33 75 44 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 68 37 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 70 32 76 43 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 69 37 76 47 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 69 33 75 44 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 64 39 72 48 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 72 38 75 47 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 34 68 44 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 63 35 69 44 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 63 28 71 39 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 23 72 33 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 58 29 66 38 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 63 30 69 40 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 63 32 69 41 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 68 38 70 44 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 59 34 62 40 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 53 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 58 24 70 31 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 60 28 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 56 28 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 36 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 58 32 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 64 33 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 32 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 65 33 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 66 35 72 43 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 67 34 72 43 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 66 34 71 41 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 69 39 71 45 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 63 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 63 31 66 38 / 0 0 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ201-217>219- 222>224-228>234-241.
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