textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1008 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

- A few more record high temperatures are forecast today across east central and southeast New Mexico.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today across eastern New Mexico due to strong winds and low humidity values will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire begins. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return on Thursday areawide.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Recent upper air sounding and surface observations indicate that many locations have already mixed out late this morning, resulting in some already breezy to gusty westerly winds. Some stronger gusts of 30 to 40 mph are still forecast for the central highlands, but overall winds for today did trend down areawide. Winds at 700 mb only climb up to around 35 kts as a shortwave trough crosses through the southern Rockies. Therefore, most locations outside of the central highlands should only see winds between 15 to 25 mph during the afternoon, before winds become more light and variable over night. Conditions remain quite dry out east, so there will still be a few hours of critical fire weather conditions when winds will be strongest.

As the upper level trough pushes out east, a backdoor cold front will swing through eastern New Mexico tonight. Winds will begin to shift north near Clayton shortly after sunset. A fairly tight pressure gradient should allow for wind speeds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph across the eastern plains. As a result, patchy blowing dust may lower visibility over Quay, Union, and Harding counties where winds will be strongest. The front looks to reach Chaves county by the early morning hours on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are forecast in the wake of the front for Wednesday, closer to average for this time of year. Brief ridging aloft should allow for some quite pleasant conditions across the Land of Enchantment, with light winds, fair temperatures and partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Another upper level trough from the Pacific Northwest will dig south into the Four Corners region by the end of the work week, bringing another round of gusty winds and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. As a 90 kt upper level jet rounds the base of the trough, southwest flow aloft will increase across the Desert Southwest ahead of the system. A recent trend that guidance has seemed to have caught on to is showing a slower moving system as the wave crosses the southern Rockies. This has resulted in some weaker wind speeds across the state for Thursday afternoon, since the strongest 700 mb winds of 45 to 55 kts don't seem to arrive until Thursday night or early Friday morning once the atmosphere has already decoupled and mixing is limited. Still, bumped up winds into the 15 to 25 kt range areawide, with some stronger winds over the high terrain. Guidance has been hinting at a stronger lee-side surface low developing over eastern Colorado during the afternoon (996-991 mb), which gives increasing confidence for stronger winds along the northeast plains and highlands. Winds look to remain below Wind Advisory criteria at the moment, but gusts up to 45 mph will still be able to blow around loose objects and create patchy blowing dust. Lastly, there is slightly lower confidence for fire conditions in east- central and southeast parts of the state where there is a low chance (15%) of a shower or two during the afternoon, depending on how far west the dryline will set up.

The main trough axis and Pacific front looks to swing through Friday morning. Some 50 to 55 kt 700 mb winds will bring gusty conditions for the high peaks along the central mountain chain. Some of this momentum will mix down to lower elevations in eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. With drier conditions and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected once again across the eastern plains. High temperatures will actually cool to below average in western New Mexico, climbing only into the low 50s. Central and western areas will remain near or slightly above normal for this time of year.

As this system exits off to the northeast, remaining shortwave energy will dig south across the Mojave Desert and form a cutoff low near Baja California during the weekend. Meanwhile, a backdoor front will push across eastern New Mexico on Friday night and Saturday morning, cooling high temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Overall, conditions look to remain mostly dry and with light winds through the weekend. Chances of precipitation return early next week as the Baja low begins to make its way east with some Pacific moisture. Timing and storm path are still quite uncertain, but there is increasing confidence that at least some parts of New Mexico will receive wetting rain in the Monday through Wednesday period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. A backdoor cold front is progressing south down the eastern plains and will hit KROW with gusty northerly winds around 08Z and continue through around 15Z. The front may create a light east canyon wind at KABQ early Wednesday morning, but otherwise winds will be light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Decreasing confidence for critical fire weather conditions for this afternoon in particular, but still quite elevated to near-critical for large portions of eastern New Mexico. Conditions are dry, but winds just haven't beens as strong and widespread as previously thought. Yet, west winds with gusts up to 35 mph have already been observed in a few spots, with RH falling to between 7 and 15 percent. A backdoor cold front will shift winds around to the north and northeast across eastern NM, with gusts between 20 to 30 mph for a few hours. Much lighter winds on Wednesday will allow for low fire weather concerns. However, strong winds areawide on Thursday will once again bring about some critical fire weather condtions across large swaths of northeast New Mexico. Parts of central and western New Mexico, will remain elevated to near- critical. ERC values are climbing areawide, but the highest ERCs exist from the Rio Grande Valley eastward (near 75th percentile). A fire weather watch has been issued for Thursday afternoon for the northeast plains, northeast highlands, and central highlands, where winds will be strongest and minimum humidity values in the low teens. On Friday, breezy to windy conditions will again plague eastern NM and elevated to near critical conditions will return for the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 31 64 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 21 61 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 22 66 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 64 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 24 67 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 29 67 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 37 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 32 65 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 66 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 33 70 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 55 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 35 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 59 32 59 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 49 28 50 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 57 22 57 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 24 62 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 27 63 31 64 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 29 68 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 32 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 71 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 39 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 33 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 37 70 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 71 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 37 69 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 34 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 38 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 73 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 65 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 66 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 68 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 30 64 34 65 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 32 66 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 68 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 38 62 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 63 31 67 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 26 65 27 70 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 70 27 72 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 29 65 32 68 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 65 39 75 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 65 35 72 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 36 73 38 80 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 35 70 39 77 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 34 72 42 81 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 70 45 79 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 37 71 45 81 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 35 71 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 42 73 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 39 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 37 71 40 73 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.