textproduct: Albuquerque

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- The first notable cold front of the season will move through later today, bringing breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures.

- The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is forecast late tonight into Thursday morning.

- A backdoor cold front will sweep west across the area Thursday, creating strong east canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The approaching upper low is over the NV/AZ border per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is rapidly filling, with the 00Z upper air analysis showing the 500mb low at 559dam. The upper low is modeled to lift northeast into western CO today and continue filling, while pushing the first notable cold front of the season east across NM. Gusty westerly winds will prevail behind the cold front this afternoon/evening. Precipitation forced closer to the upper low circulation will generally be light and confined to northwest and north central areas. Increasing southerly low level flow across southeast and east central NM in response to the approaching upper low will bring Gulf moisture advection and the potential for some deeper convection near the TX border, mainly near and south of Tucumcari. The latest NAM is showing impressive 0-6km bulk shear of 50-60kts across the southeast and east central plains of NM later today, combined with LIs of -4 to -5C and muCAPE in excess of 2,000J/kg, which should be sufficient for a severe thunderstorm threat. The latest CAMs show initiation along/near the TX border, so the most likely scenario is that any severe storms that develop on our side of the border move quickly east into the TX Panhandle. Cold air advection will be the rule tonight and will bring the 1st freeze of the season to the upper RGV, where a Freeze Warning is in effect. Tonight will be the coldest night so far this season across much of western and northern NM.

The departing and weakening upper low will leave behind a baggy trough oriented from northeast to southwest across the region on Thursday, which is forecast to close off into a 2nd upper low and retrograde southwest across AZ through Thursday night. At the same time, a backdoor cold front will race west across NM, resulting in a strong east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. The 00Z NAM MOS is supportive of advisory-type speeds, but the GFS MOS has been consistently hitting up into warning criteria at KABQ. The NBM is also supportive of warning- type speeds, so will continue with the current High Wind Watch for Thursday night for the middle/lower RGV, South Central Highlands and upper Tularosa Valley. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for Thursday afternoon/evening across much of eastern NM to cover the strong gradient winds behind the backdoor cold front. Cold air advection will may result in the 1st freeze of the season from the Far Northeast Highlands south to the Central Highlands and Estancia Valley late Thursday night, where a Freeze Watch is in effect.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Daytime temperatures will continue well below average Fri/Sat behind the strong backdoor cold front. A Freeze Watch may be required for Friday night for Union and Harding Counties. The retrograding upper low will pull up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula Saturday, steering moisture around it's broad circulation into AZ and western NM where showers and a few storms are possible by Sunday. The upper low is modeled to fill an lift northeast across the region as a shortwave trough Sunday night into Monday, keeping chances for showers going. A more significant upper low will gather offshore of CA Tue/Wed and may bring a round of precipitation to NM Wed/Thu.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Deterioration to IFR is possible this morning at KFMN and KGUP, with areas of mountain obscurations across western NM. Low probabilities for MVFR conditions exist at KROW though the early morning hours, but too low to include in TAF at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. Gusty southwest winds will be replaced with gusty west or northwest winds behind a cold front this afternoon/evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. An upper level low moving east across the region will deliver the first notable cold front of the season today, bringing gusty westerly winds and colder temperatures. Chances for wetting precipitation associated with the upper level low will be confined to far western, north central and far eastern NM. A strong backdoor cold front will follow the departing upper level low on Thursday, bringing strong east winds to much of the area. Daytime temperatures will be well below average from Wednesday through Saturday behind the cold fronts. Vent rates will generally be good to excellent through the work week, but take a dip and be poor over the weekend and into early next week as increasing cloud cover makes for stubborn near-surface temperature inversions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Farmington...................... 54 35 61 40 / 50 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 54 28 63 28 / 90 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 31 61 33 / 60 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 54 27 57 33 / 20 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 26 60 34 / 30 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 59 30 61 36 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 30 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 67 38 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 31 61 35 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 66 33 71 39 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 69 38 76 44 / 20 0 0 0 Chama........................... 49 26 55 28 / 90 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 35 60 37 / 30 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 63 36 64 33 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 31 59 28 / 60 5 0 0 Red River....................... 50 24 50 21 / 50 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 57 19 55 19 / 20 0 0 5 Taos............................ 60 29 61 28 / 40 0 0 0 Mora............................ 62 32 59 27 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 36 68 37 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 38 64 35 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 36 65 35 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 43 71 43 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 42 72 45 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 42 74 45 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 71 44 / 20 0 0 0 Belen........................... 75 42 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 71 41 72 43 / 20 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 74 41 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 72 41 73 43 / 20 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 74 42 73 44 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 68 42 69 42 / 20 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 41 71 43 / 20 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 78 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 36 63 36 / 20 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 65 38 66 38 / 20 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 67 36 65 36 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 34 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 66 38 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 68 36 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 66 41 67 35 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 62 37 52 29 / 20 10 5 10 Raton........................... 67 35 58 31 / 10 10 0 10 Springer........................ 70 35 62 32 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 65 36 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 66 47 62 35 / 40 20 0 0 Roy............................. 69 41 63 35 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 80 48 72 43 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 78 47 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 51 73 44 / 20 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 83 53 74 44 / 30 10 0 5 Portales........................ 83 54 75 45 / 30 5 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 83 51 74 45 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 87 54 79 49 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 81 47 74 40 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 78 45 74 37 / 0 0 0 20

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219-220-224-225.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ216.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NMZ222-223-228-229.